Academic literature on the topic 'Sales promotion – United States'

Alternative market channels that include garden centers, landscapers, mass merchandisers, and rewholesalers have contributed to the growth of ornamental crops sales in the United States. Knowledge about growers' use of these channels is indispensable for the development of appropriate strategies to achieve goals. This study estimated the impacts of growers' business characteristics on market channel choice by firm size. The explanatory variables were evaluated separately but were grouped by regions of the United States, kind of plant, kind of contract sales, and promotion behavior. Growers' location had limited effect on channel choice when compared with growers in the south. Growers with a more diversified marketing strategy were associated with higher likelihood of using the mass merchandiser and garden center channels. Trade show attendance had a strong negative impact on choice to the mass merchandiser compared with the rewholesaler channel. Generally, there appeared to be differences in the groups of variables that were related to channel choice. By channel, plant groups were important in explaining the mass merchandiser and landscaper channels, and the contracts group affected the garden center choice. By size, the contracts variables impacted the mass merchandiser channel, plant groups variables impacted the garden center channel, and promotions variables impacted the landscaper channel.

PurposeThis paper examines differences in the discounts offered during Deal of the Day (DOD) promotion schemes by online retailers based on product category, festival season and the economic status of a country.Design/methodology/approachIn study 1, the authors conducted three focus group studies and 20 in-depth personal interviews (PIs) to explore consumers' perspectives on DOD. To validate the hypotheses based on the findings of study 1 and collected 515 data points from Amazon.com (313 data points from the United States) and Amazon.in (202 data points from India) in study two. The authors used multinomial linear regression to analyze the data.FindingsA significant difference in savings for buyers on the purchase of electronic product categories as compared to savings made by them on the purchase of non-electronic product categories during DOD promotional schemes. Electronic products get deeper discounts in the US during festival seasons as compared to non-festival seasons during DOD promotional schemes. In emerging economies discounts offered by e-commerce retailers during DOD offers on electronic items are lesser as compared to those offered during DOD offers made in developed economies like United States.Practical implicationsManagers should avoid offering the same products under DOD during the festive season and non-festive season at similar prices in emerging economies as during festivals customers expect more savings over and above the regular savings.Originality/valueDOD is offered every day irrespective of the other promotions on e-commerce platforms to boost sales. This study analyses any significant difference in saving for DOD offered during special sales days in emerging and developed economies.

Multiple regression analysis was conducted to study the relationships among promotion intensity, product differentiation based on therapeutic novelty, and sales performance measured in relative market share. Especially, synergic effects of promotion intensity and therapeutic novelty on relative market share were examined. Selected as study drugs were new chemical entity drug products introduced in the United States from 1 January 1973 through 31 December 1982, which were classified into 47 different therapeutic classes. The data were obtained for the six-year period 1983 through 1988. The first multiple regression model was constructed in which relative market share was regressed on promotion and therapeutic novelty. The model explained 20.8% of the total variance. Both promotion and therapeutic novelty had significant, positive main effects on relative market share. The second model included the interaction term of promotion and therapeutic novelty, and explained 21.7% of the total variance. The interaction term was significantly positive, which suggested the synergism between promotion and therapeutic novelty.

Genetic tests are currently being offered to the general public with little oversight and regulation as to which tests are allowed to be sold clinically and little control over the marketing and promotion of sales and use. This article provides discussion and data to indicate that the general public holds high opinions of genetic testing and that current media outlets for public education on genetic testing are not adequate to increase accurate knowledge of genetics. The authors argue that more regulation is needed to control and correct this problem in the United States.

With the passage of the Dairy and Tobacco Adjustment Act of 1983, dairy fanner investment in product research, nutrition education, advertising, and promotion in the United States increased from $60 million to $200 million annually. A key decision faced by boards managing these funds is how best to allocate available advertising funds among the various dairy products. In this paper an economic model is developed that shows the allocation of funds among products that would maximize sales in a given market. The model is applied to the New York City market with results suggesting that over the study period diverting funds from fluid milk to cheese advertising would have enhanced milk-equivalent sales in the market by as much as 1.17% or 8.21 million gallons annually. Alternatively, the model suggests that the same sales level could have been achieved with a different allocation of funds resulting in an estimated 14.6% savings in the amount spent advertising the two products.

Theories of market failures and targeting motivate the promotion of entrepreneurship training programs and generate testable predictions regarding heterogeneous treatment effects from such programs. Using a large randomized evaluation in the United States, we find no strong or lasting effects on those most likely to face credit or human capital constraints, or labor market discrimination. We do find a short-run effect on business ownership for those unemployed at baseline, but this dissipates at longer horizons. Treatment effects on the full sample are also short-term and limited in scope: we do not find effects on business sales, earnings, or employees. (JEL I26, J24, J68, L25, L26, M13)

Abstract Introduction Between 2012 and 2016, sales of cigars increased by 29% in the United States. In small local studies, greater little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) availability and marketing has been documented in neighborhoods with a greater proportion of Hispanic or Latino and black residents, and near schools. This national study of cigarette retailers assesses whether LCC availability and marketing at the point of sale is associated with neighborhood racial, ethnic, income, and percent youth demographics. Methods In 2015, we collected LCC availability and marketing data through retailer audits of a nationally representative sample of 2128 cigarette retailers. Using 2011–2015 American Community Survey census tract estimates, we modeled associations of neighborhood demographics (in quartiles) with availability of LCC-flavored products, and presence of exterior advertisements, youth marketing, and promotions. Results Nearly 90% of retailers sold LCCs, 83.0% sold flavored LCCs, and 30.9% had youth marketing. Controlling for retailer type and other neighborhood characteristics, neighborhoods with the highest proportion of black residents had significantly higher odds of flavored LCC availability (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52, 3.30); exterior advertisements (AOR = 2.84, 95% CI = 1.94, 4.16); price promotions (AOR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.07–2.45), and youth appeal (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.08–2.08) compared to the lowest. Disparities in flavored LCC availability, exterior advertising, and youth appeal were also present for lower income neighborhoods. Conclusion Neighborhoods with a greater proportion of black or lower income residents have greater flavored LCCs availability and LCC marketing. Without stronger LCC regulation, residents of these neighborhoods may be at a greater risk of LCC use. Implications LCCs are harmful combustible tobacco products that are less regulated than cigarettes (eg, lower taxation, cheaper outlay due to small package sizes, availability of flavors), which makes them an affordable and appealing product to youth. This study documents greater availability, advertising, and marketing of LCCs in neighborhoods with a higher proportion of black or lower-income residents, potentially putting these populations at a greater risk of using or switching to these products in the face of increasing cigarette regulations. These findings underscore the need for local, state, and federal LCC regulatory action.

Exporting has become a popular means for businesses to augment sales and profitability and for countries to improve their gross domestic product and balance of trade. As a complement to export selling, high-level government officials increasingly are providing export promotional assistance to their nations’ industries. Much of what is known about this “high-level government selling, “ however, is based on conventional wisdom and anecdotal evidence. This article reports the results of a study that examined non-U.S. politicians’ export selling efforts. Data were obtained from surveys of foreign embassy diplomats in the United States. Findings offer insights into what government officials are doing to stimulate sales of their countries’ exports.

A counterfeit fentanyl crisis is currently underway in the United States. Counterfeit versions of commonly abused prescription drugs laced with fentanyl are being manufactured, distributed, and sold globally, leading to an increase in overdose and death in countries like the United States and Canada. Despite concerns from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency regarding covert and overt sale of fentanyls online, no study has examined the role of the Internet and social media on fentanyl illegal marketing and direct-to-consumer access. In response, this study collected and analyzed five months of Twitter data (from June-November 2015) filtered for the keyword “fentanyl” using Amazon Web Services. We then analyzed 28,711 fentanyl-related tweets using text filtering and a machine learning approach called a Biterm Topic Model (BTM) to detect underlying latent patterns or “topics” present in the corpus of tweets. Using this approach we detected a subset of 771 tweets marketing the sale of fentanyls online and then filtered this down to nine unique tweets containing hyperlinks to external websites. Six hyperlinks were associated with online fentanyl classified ads, 2 with illicit online pharmacies, and 1 could not be classified due to traffic redirection. Importantly, the one illicit online pharmacy detected was still accessible and offered the sale of fentanyls and other controlled substances direct-to-consumers with no prescription required at the time of publication of this study. Overall, we detected a relatively small sample of Tweets promoting illegal online sale of fentanyls. However, the detection of even a few online sellers represents a public health danger and a direct violation of law that demands further study.

In recent years America has witnessed a major shift in its population to various geographic regions. Educators have speculated on the effects of this frequent migration on students' academic and social advancement. Educators have also been interested in the effects of grade retention on academic and social advancement. Despite research on each of these factors, no investigations have addressed these factors in conjunction with each other. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of high student mobility on classroom teachers' promotion-retention decisions. Additionally, other factors that may influence classroom teachers' promotion-retention decisions were examined. Two hundred twelve elementary school teachers evaluated two case studies: one of a highly mobile student, and one of a non-mobile student. Each subsequently made a decision to either retain or promote that student. Both first grade and fifth grade students were considered. Each case study was identical for each grade level with the exception of the number of schools attended. Although the retention-promotion decisions did not differ significantly for first grade students, the teachers chose to retain the mobile fifth grade student more frequently than the non-mobile fifth grade student. Examination of various factors on a retention questionnaire revealed that different factors emerged as most important to the teachers when making promotion-retention decisions. The factors differed for both grade level and mobility status. The results were discussed in relation to interventions that may be warranted in an attempt to alleviate disadvantages in entering a new school. Further investigation of the mobile student-grade retention relationship was indicated. Additional investigation of the highly mobile minority student was also emphasized.

Thesis (M.S. in Financial Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 1990.
Thesis Advisor(s): Zambo, Leslie J. Second Reader: Eberling, Glenn D. "June 1990." Description based on signature page as viewed on October 21, 2009. DTIC Identifier(s): Computer programs, inventory control, cash management, trading, theses. Author(s) subject terms: Computerized point-of-sales, inventory control, cash management. Includes bibliographical references (p. 35). Also available online.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2003.
Thesis advisor(s): Harold Trinkunas, Robert Looney. Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-66). Also available online.

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010.
Thesis Advisor(s): Mehay, Stephen L. ; Hatch, Bill. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 28, 2010 Author(s) subject terms: U.S. Air Force, Retention, Promotion, Officer Commissioning Sources, Logistic Regression, Air Force HR. Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-89). Also available in print.

The study was designed to identify current levels of corporate health promotion and nutrition activities and to highlight the need for continued health promotion activities, in particular nutrition education, throughout corporate America.Five hundred surveys were mailed to the Fortune 500 companies throughout the United States. One hundred and twenty-one were completed, yielding a 24% sample for analysis.The wellness/health promotion activities reported to be a part of corporate wellness programs included exercise, nutrition education, CPR training, stress management and intramural sports. It appeared that size of the corporation influenced the nutrition promotion provided at the worksite. There appeared to be no difference between CEO support or lack of support to the wellness/health promotion program and the variety of health promotion activities. It was apparent that having a nutrition consultant resulted in greater and more varied nutrition health promotion activities at the worksite, and that in the future, America's Fortune 500 companies will need to hire a nutrition professional to disseminate nutrition and health promotion information at the worksite.
Institute for Wellness

Information technology is one of the fastest growing service export industries in the world. According to information collected by LIAA (Information and Communications ..., 2018), in 2017, 40 % of Latvian information technology companies exported to the Baltic States. In 2017, the United States (further – US) was the ninth largest export partner and the 18 th largest import partner of Latvia. The US is the world’s largest software and information technology services provider, accounting for ¾ of the total global IT market. Latvian information technology companies have an interest in an information technology service exports to the US; however, currently IT companies mostly choose not to conduct market research and export strategy development. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate the export potential of Latvian information technology services and to determine the export promotion activities of Latvian information technology services to the US. So far, there are no analysis of the Latvian IT export promotion to US that would be based on company’s needs, experience and resources available. The results of the research concluded that the export tendencies of IT services are upward and the export balance of Latvian IT services with the US is positive.

In this work we estimate the amount of energy required to produce the food consumed in the United States in 2002 and 2007. Data from government sources and the scientific literature were used to calculate the energy intensity of food production from agriculture, transportation, manufacturing, food sales, storage and preparation. Most data were from 2002; consequently we scaled all data from other years to 2002 by using ratios of total energy consumption in 2002 to total energy consumption in the year data were reported. We concluded that food production required at least 7,880±733 trillion BTU in 2002 and 8,080±752 trillion BTU of energy in 2007, over a third of which came from food handling in homes, restaurants and grocery stores. The energy used to produce food represents approximately 8% of energy consumption. Our estimate is for the energy required to produce the food consumed in the United States and takes into account food imports and exports. To account for net food exports in the agriculture sector we calculated values for the energy intensity of ten food categories and then used the mass of domestic food consumption in each category to calculate the energy embedded in the food consumed in the United States. The amount of energy required to produce the food consumed in the United States has policy implications because it is a substantial fraction of total energy consumption and is responsible for a commensurate amount of greenhouse gas emissions. There are many opportunities for decreasing the energy intensity of food production at all steps of the food system. Education of the public and policy measures that promote energy efficiency in the food sector have the potential for decreasing food waste and the energy intensity of the food system.

Engineering technology education in the United States can trace its history back to the Wickenden and Spahr study of 1931, which identified the place of engineering technology education in the technical spectrum [1]. By 1945, the Engineering Council for Professional Development developed the first accreditation procedures for two-year engineering technology programs and by 1946, the first program was accredited. On this timeline the Purdue University engineering technology programs at Indianapolis can trace their history back to 1946 [2]. Over the last 70 years, engineering technology education in the United States has distinguished itself by a history of evolution, development and continuous improvement. Engineering technology education faces significant challenges during the next several years. These challenges are driven by the rapid evolution of computer technology and changing expectations of the educational process by the stakeholders. Stakeholders include not only students and faculty but also various groups in both the public and private sectors including industry, professional organizations, funding agencies, state government and the university system. Two specific challenges facing engineering technology educators are ‘basic faculty credentials’ and changing expectations for ‘creative activities’. These two challenges can be delineated by the following questions: • Will a doctorate degree be necessary for engineering technology faculty in the future for promotion and tenure in the university environment? • Will applied research or pedagogical research be ‘good enough’ for tenure? This paper addresses these two issues using a study of current engineering technology faculty hiring practices as a basis. Ultimately, critical future discussions must occur as engineering technology education continues to evolve and move into the future.

Of the total electricity consumption by the United States in 2006, more than 1% was used on data centers alone; a value that continues to rise rapidly. Of the total amount of electricity a data center consumes, at least 30% is used to cool server equipment. The present study conceptualizes and analyzes a novel paradigm consisting of integrated power, cooling, and waste heat recovery and upgrade systems that considerably lowers the energy footprint of data centers. Thus, on-site power generation equipment is used to supply primary electricity needs of the data center. The microturbine-derived waste heat is recovered to run an absorption chiller that supplies the entire cooling load of the data center, essentially providing the requisite cooling without any additional expenditure of primary energy. Furthermore, the waste heat rejected by the data center itself is boosted to a higher temperature with a heat transformer, with the upgraded thermal stream serving as an additional output of the data center with no additional electrical power input. Such upgraded heat can be used for district heating applications in neighboring residential buildings, or as process heat for commercial end uses such as laundries, hospitals and restaurants. With such a system, the primary energy usage of the data center as a whole can be reduced by about 23 percent while still addressing the high-flux cooling loads, in addition to providing a new income stream through the sales of upgraded thermal energy. Given the large and fast-escalating energy consumption patterns of data centers, this novel, integrated approach to electricity and cooling supply, and waste heat recovery and upgrade will substantially reduce primary energy consumption for this important end use worldwide.

With any new mode of transportation comes new fears for both the public and those involved in the industry. The advent of the transcontinental railroad was no different. When the transcontinental railroad was complete and trains became more commonplace for travel, the biggest fear became the worst case scenario: a head on collision between two trains. The idea of the head on collision remained the biggest fear of the public because it happened and was based on reality, but was rarely witnessed, which made the idea even more lofty. But with the standardization of time in the 1880’s, there were fewer crashes and collisions of railroads, but people were still afraid. Railroad companies began to brainstorm the best way to change public perception, and began to stage head on collisions open to public viewing for a small fee. Naturally, the idea took off, and head on collisions between trains became the next source of entertainment. For $2, spectators could watch two locomotives crash into each other at speeds of 58 miles an hour in Crush Texas, or even cheaper in Ohio. But this was more than just entertainment. William Crush, the most famous locomotive smasher had actually worked on the railroad known as the Katy. When asked by the executives of the railroad to boost sales, head on collision was his solution. Despite multiple injuries suffered in the crowd from shrapnel and an exploded boiler, this showcase worked, and ridership of the Katy increased dramatically. Crush’s display was not the first, or last time this took place around the country, but it was the most deadly, which makes it the most memorable and begs the question “what role do these staged collisions play in railroad history?” Ridership in the decades leading up to these staged collisions was steadily declining, and safety measures were not taken into consideration. But with these staged collisions that turned around. People, not just the public were able to see and study the different collisions and put minds at ease. But it also tells about the United States population at the time. These staged collisions could not have happened in any other era because of the industrial revolution which allowed railroad companies to begin to replace old locomotives and iron tracks with steel.

The academic career and the stages of promotion of teachers and field researchers at the Egyptian universities as well as at many research centers available in Egypt's 26 provinces is guided by a set of rules and regulations that mainly depend on the number of publications that the researcher is producing in a specific period of time. It is also important to note that such publications should be published in well-known and accredited journals, transactions, and conference proceedings amongst others. These publications could be produced jointly with other institutions both locally and internationally. In all scenarios, one common problem always prevails, that is resources and funding. As for funding it is occasionally provided through international donors such as the European Union and the National Science Foundation. However, the problem remains in the local segment where various barriers are slowing down if not blocking the production of up-to-standard publications and research projects that are needed to contribute to the overall development of various sectors both quantitatively and qualitatively. Example barriers would include financial resources, required specialized equipment, as well as computing (hardware and software) and communication resources. In that respect, Scientific Computer Software Applications (SCSA) is becoming frequently the workhorse of research and development activities. Many software packages have been released to help researchers analyze and produce scientific publications. Most of these packages have a complicated design as well as expensive making it difficult to buy and not easy to understand by the user. Egypt, a developing country, lacks funding for research and development activities as compared to the United States and other European countries. The lack of financial resources and the scarcity of required resources make it difficult for academic researchers to build and excel in their academic careers. This paper demonstrates a new model namely; Virtual Research System (VRS), that is free from limitations of spatial distance and time and based mainly on information and communication technologies including the Internet to help leverage the quality and the quantity of academic researchers in Egyptian universities both locally as well as through collaborative work with other international research institutions. The paper provides an opportunity to share a wealth of information and knowledge that was never tapped before through the old accustomed to traditional techniques. The paper also demonstrates that new information and communication technologies are creating many challenges and opportunities for growth in different disciplines including research and development.

Student Team Challenges on specific topics are growing in popularity as efficient ways to stimulate students’ independent work, technical and management learning as well as socialization and internationalization. Many competitions are focused on ground vehicles (SAE Formula, Motostudent, Shell Eco Marathon, Solar Challenge), with different focuses on performance, fuel consumption or other depending on the aim of the event. An interesting approach is proposed in the United States by the ASME HPV Challenge, which is focused on Human Powered Vehicles. This class of vehicles allows not only to set-up a classical competition in terms of design, innovation, presentation, manufacturing and racing, but also to grow the student awareness about speed-energy relation. An HPV gives to the rider a direct feedback on a “human-scale” about energy quantities involved in personal mobility. The main returns by the use of this specific topic for a student challenge are: better understanding of the sustainable mobility problem, awareness about the potential and the limits of human muscular power, development of technical skills about design and engineering of lightweight and efficient vehicles, stimulation of the HPVs market development (the students are both potential future designers/manufacturers and/or customers), promotion of healthy and engaging physical activities. In this context, while Europe is rich of HPVs amateurs and manufacturers and is the usual location of the WHPVA World Championship, there is a lack of an educational framework involving students and teachers. Starting from the end of ZEV-HPV Erasmus Intensive Program 2011–2013, the proposal of creating a specific HPV challenge for the European students was developed by the authors. In particular, it was evaluated that by integrating the Student Challenge in the WHPVA World Championship as a special “Educational” category, many reciprocal advantages could be obtained: logistic and organizational support from the WHPVA and its national representatives, in particular for racing and timing, reciprocal technical and cultural exchange between students, academics and the hundred of amateur rider/designer/builder that were attending the event in the last decade, growth and renewal of the European HPVs community by aggregating young people around the subject and by stimulating the research of innovative solutions. After an in-depth analysis of the arguments reported above, an overview of the rules for the 1st edition of EU HPV Student Challenge will be presented and compared to analogous international competitions from an educational perspective.

Foods preserved by high pressure processes (HPP) are sold in Japan, the United States, and Europe. HPP technology is used to pasteurize low acid solid and liquid foods such as oysters, hams, and guacamole and to extend refrigerated shelf-life. HPP technology can commercially sterilize liquid and solid acid products such as fruit juices, salsa, and cut tomatoes. Product sales have reached millions of pounds per year. New processes have been developed to sterilize low acid foods using a combination of heat and pressure. Foods at temperatures of 90 to 1000C can be compressed to 600 to 700 MPa for one or more cycles and thus heated uniformly by compression heating in the range of 111 to 121 0C. Decompression brings the product back to its starting temperature for final cooling. This application provides a high-temperature-short-time sterilization process for low acid foods and thus preserves fresh product quality. Commercial HPP foods require rapid cycling of equipment and maximum use of the pressure vessel volume. These requirements have been met in commercial, semi-continuous, liquid food treatment systems. A single 25 liter pressure vessel can cycle 15 times per hour with a three minute product hold at a pressure of 580 MPa. This vessel operating 5000 hours per year can treat over four million pounds of liquid food. Batch equipment designed to cycle over 12 times per hour with a three minute product hold at 680 MPa is under construction. All units manufactured for the HPP treatment of foods use stainless steel contacting parts, potable water as the compression fluid, and are designed to have a safe cycle life of over 100,000 cycles at 580 MPa. Equipment used for the HPP treatment of food must have an up-time in excess of 90% and must be capable of repair and maintenance by food process line technicians. Ease of access and ease of seal and wear part replacement is required. Equipment must meet cleaning and sanitation requirements of the FDA and the USDA if used to treat meat containing products. Pressure chamber volume use in batch systems must be optimized. Even one additional package per cycle at 12 cycles per hour and 5000 hours per year can yield 60,000 additional packages. High cycle rates require automatic package handling systems for loading packages into carriers and for loading and unloading carriers at the pressure vessel. The operation of high pressure food processing equipment must integrate with a specified food packaging and package handling system as it is desirable to have the high pressure processing system as an integral part of the total food processing and packaging system.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.