Academic literature on the topic 'Samuel Barber'

The publication of three previously unpublished early organ works of Samuel Barber (1910–1981) in the hundredth year since his birth allows an opportunity to consider his output afresh for an instrument he knew well from his childhood years. Known to millions through the broadcast, concert and film media, Barber's most-played work, the Adagio from the String Quartet, op. 11 (1936) has remained a familiar voice to contemporary ears 75 years after its composition. Indeed it could be fairly suggested that it has become to America what Elgar's Nimrod has to the British; a piece that can summon up the rawest of emotions within its first bars whilst being imbued with an unquestionable national identity.

Thesis (D.M.A.)--University of North Texas, 2001.
Accompanied by 4 recitals, recorded Mar. 27, 1995, Jan. 29, 1996, June 5, 2000, and Sept. 10, 2001. Includes bibliographical references (p. 100-101).

Samuel Barber's Capricorn Concerto for flute, oboe and trumpet with strings is an important though seldom performed work. The concerto is teeming with performance choices that are indicative of both historical and contemporary influences. At present, there are limited resources available to performers regarding Capricorn. The first section of this study presents an historical and contextual examination of Capricorn both in terms of Barber's own compositional output and that of his influences and contemporaries. The second section includes a performance analysis of the work, while the third section includes an analysis of existing recordings. Implications for the performer are outlined in last section. The guide provides performers with pertinent background, analytical and performance information in order to facilitate informed, high-level performance.

In the art of song composition, American composer Samuel Barber was the perfect storm. Barber spent years studying under superb instruction and became adept as a pianist, singer, composer, and in literature and languages. The songs that Barber composed during those years of instruction, many of which have been posthumously published, are waypoints on his journey to compositional maturity. These early songs display his natural inclinations, his self-determination, his growth through trial and error, and the slow flowering of a musical vision, meticulously cultivated by the educational opportunities provided to him by his family and his many devoted mentors. Using existing well-known and recently uncovered biographical data, as well as both published and unpublished song juvenilia and mature songs, this dissertation examines the importance of Barber's earliest musical and academic training in relationship to his development as a song composer.

I denna textmässigt beskrivande del av mitt arbete med Knoxville: Summer of 1915 (opus 24), ett verk för sopran och orkester med musik av Samuel Barber och text av James Agee, har jag främst fokuserat på de delar i instuderingen av verket som haft mest betydelse för mig personligen, både som sångerska och som konstnär. Det som har haft avgörande betydelse för mig är verkets unika uppbyggnad, men även mina personliga känslor och egna livserfarenheter, som hjälpt till att forma min uppfattning om verket som helhet. De delar som belyses i uppsatsen är framförallt textens innebörd, verkets kulturella sammanhang och olika sätt som musik och sång kan samverka för att understryka och lyfta fram känslotillstånd och underliggande betydelser i ord.

Bilaga: 1 CD

The music of Samuel Barber is well known in the vocal, piano, and string literature; however, little of his chamber music involves woodwinds, and in particular, only one work involves the woodwind quintet. Summer Music, originally commissioned as a septet, developed after the premiere of the work into the woodwind quintet version, with the assistance of the New York Woodwind Quintet. Barber is considered a contemporary .romantic. composer, evidenced through his use of lyricism. Summer Music, a standard in the woodwind quintet literature, should be included in every professional flutist's repertoire. The intent of this dissertation is to consider Barber's use of lyricism as a determinant of the form of Summer Music, as well as to compare the differences between the manuscript and the published edition.

This chapter describes Barber’s close relationship with Italian conductor Arturo Toscanini. Barber would frequently visit the conductor in his home, most days ending with music. This friendship resulted in Toscanini requesting that Barber write a work for the newly formed NBC Symphony Orchestra. This was a rare privilege, as Toscanini in the past had ignored American composers. His broadcasts were received with much enthusiasm from audiences. Toscanini further advanced Barber’s career by bringing his music to Latin America, with Barber being the first American composer whose work reached those shores. For Toscanini, Barber composed Essay for Orchestra and arranged the second movement of his earlier string quartet as the Adagio for Strings, which brought him international fame and became, as it were, the national funeral music of the United States, associated with the deaths of such famous names as Albert Einstein, Franklin Roosevelt, and Grace Kelly and with the tragedy of September 11, 2001. The chapter also covers Barber’s unaccompanied choral works.

Barber continued to receive numerous recognitions and awards for his work. In 1935, he was given the Prix de Rome, for being the most talented and promising music student at the time. With the award, he was granted two years of study at the American Academy in Rome, with full lodging and a regular stipend. In this new environment, Barber continued to flourish, winning a Pulitzer traveling scholarship, which provided him with an extended stay at the American Academy, where his fSymphony in One Movement was composed. His uncle, Sidney Homer, proudly observed Barber’s triumphs as he read stories in the local newspaper about his music being performed in America. Uncle and nephew continued to communicate regularly through letters, exchanging queries, comments, and criticisms about Barber’s new compositions. Correspondence between Mary Bok and Barber flourished. Barber wrote many songs on emotionally charged poems, which seem biographically pointed. During the summer, he and Menotti lived in a game warden’s cottage in St. Wolfgang, Austria; there he began work on the String Quartet in B minor, the second movement of which later became the famous Adagio for Strings. Both the symphony and the String Quartet were premiered at the American Academy.

The commission that was one of the greatest tributes to Barber’s career turned out to be his nemesis. Antony and Cleopatra, written for the opening of the new Metropolitan Opera House at Lincoln Center in New York, was handicapped by the inflated Franco Zeffirelli production, with its problematic paraphernalia, including camels and goats and a malfunctioning pyramid, which eclipsed serious evaluation of the music. This chapter narrates how the opera based on Barber’s favorite Shakespeare play came to life, how he handpicked the major characters ̶—Leontyne Price for Cleopatra and Justino Díaz for Antony ̶—and how these artists devoted themselves to the literature and history of their roles. Although Barber’s work here was no less brilliant, the critics felt that the failure of the opera was due to overproduction, with an infusion of mechanical and technical failures. After the premiere, Barber boarded the SS Constitution for Europe. Over the next decade, he devoted his energies intermittently toward a revision of the opera in collaboration with Menotti. In 1975, four performances of the more intimate version with increased lyric meditation were presented at the Juilliard School. Critical reviews of a production at the Spoleto Festival in Italy after Barber died gave much attention to the musical strengths of the opera, with uniform appreciation of Barber as a master of orchestra and choral writing. Performances followed in Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia.

For the opening week of the new Philharmonic Hall at New York’s Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in 1962, Barber composed a piano concerto in honor of the 100th anniversary of his publisher. The concerto was tailored to the technical prowess and individual style of John Browning, reflecting the Russian influence of his piano teacher Rosina Lhévinne. The second movement was a reworking of an earlier piece, Elegy, written for Manfred Ibel, a young art student and amateur flute player, to whom Barber dedicated his piano concerto. This chapter details Barber’s compositional process and influences for each movement of the concerto and describes the enthusiastic reception of the debut performance. Nearing completion of the concerto, Barber was invited to Russia as the first American composer ever to attend the biennial Congress of Soviet Composers, where he freely discussed his compositional philosophy and methods. For the concerto, Barber won his second Pulitzer Prize and the Annual Award of the Music Critics Circle of New York. His second composition for the opening season of Lincoln Center was Andromache’s Farewell, for soprano and orchestra. Based on a scene from Euripides’s The Trojan Women, the piece displayed deep emotional expression and striking imagery. With a superior opera singer, Martina Arroyo, singing the solo part, the success of Andromache’s Farewell presaged Barber’s opera Antony and Cleopatra.

This chapter discusses the roots of Barber’s family in Pennsylvania. He began his music education early in his life. By the time he was six, his various talents were apparent to his parents. However, it was only when Barber was nine years old that he realized his dream was not to be an athlete and go to Princeton as his father, a physician, would have wished, but rather, he wanted to be a composer. His family was supportive of his ambition and urged him to take on further formal studies. His sister, Sara, also was inclined toward music and was one of the first performers of his work. In this chapter, the close relationship between Barber and his uncle Sidney Homer is described; the two spent summers and countless hours together. Barber consulted his uncle about whether music was a good direction to go in for a career. Homer saw the unmistakable talent in the child, and he molded and guided his early compositions. The chapter also discusses Barber’s earliest job as organist for Westminster Church and an elaborate work he composed for the famous organ owned by Pierre du Pont at Longwood Gardens.

Abstract In this study, an FIB-based cross section TEM sample preparation procedure for targeted via with barrier/Cu seed layer is introduced. The dual beam FIB with electron beam for target location and Ga ion beam for sample milling is the main tool for the targeted via with barrier/Cu seed layer inspection. With the help of the FIB operation and epoxy layer protection, ta cross section TEM sample at a targeted via with barrier/Cu seed layer could be made. Subsequent TEM inspection is used to verify the quality of the structure. This approach was used in the Cu process integration performance monitor. All these TEM results are very helpful in process development and yield improvement.

Needles are among the most common used instruments in surgery by medical professionals either for diagnosing the disease such as biopsy or for medical intervention such as drug delivery. Generally, needles are assumed to be minimally invasive, however it is desirable to decrease the insertion and pulling out force in order to prevent tissue damages. The hypothesis is that reducing the resistance forces caused by needle-tissue interaction leads to less tissue damage and less pain. Bioinspired needles mimicking insect stingers have been designed to reduce this resistance force and this design could provide to a more sophisticated steering of needle. Although our earlier study on honeybee-mimicking needle has shown the reduction of insertion force by having barbs on the needle body, the pull-out force is a big concern in particular during the extraction of the needle. A special mechanism to control the barbs at the end of the insertion procedure is designed. In this study, we investigated the use of SMA to control the barb functions so that it will reduce the pull-out force of the bioinspired needles. In this work, smart barb design is proposed. Circular barbs are divided to two symmetric parts connected by a ring around the central axis of the needle and the rings are connected to form the base part of its structure. Barbs are designed to have parallel faces with a desired angle through the insertion mechanism and are connected with a SMA wire at their bottom that is connected to the rear and front part of the needle. After insertion, actuating the SMA wires force the barbs to rotate around the rings due to the torque provided by wire shrinkage. As a result, barbs have now the same angle along the movement of needle for pulling out as they have for insertion mechanism.

Abstract Device shrinkage has resulted in thinner barriers and smaller vias. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) has become a common technique for barrier profile analysis because of its high image resolution. TEM sample preparation and image interpretation becomes difficult when the size of the small cylindrical via is close to the TEM sample thickness. Effects of different sample thickness and specimen preparation methods, therefore, have been investigated. An automatic FIB program has been shown to be useful in via sample preparation. Techniques for imaging a TEM specimen will be discussed in the paper. Conventional TEM bright field (BF) image is adequate to examine the barrieronly via; however, other techniques are more suitable for a Cu filled via.

Abstract This paper examines copper-interconnect integrated circuit transmission electron microscope (TEM) sample contamination. It investigates the deterioration of the sample during ion milling and storage and introduces prevention techniques. The paper discusses copper grain agglomeration issues barrier/seed step coverage checking. The high temperature needed for epoxy solidifying was found to be harmful to sidewall coverage checking of seed. Single beam modulation using a glass dummy can efficiently prevent contamination of the area of interest in a TEM sample during ion milling. Adoption of special low-temperature cure epoxy resin can greatly reduce thermal exposure of the sample and prevent severe agglomeration of copper seed on via sidewall. TEM samples containing copper will deteriorate when stored in ordinary driers and sulphur contamination was found at the deteriorated point on the sample. Isolation of the sample from the ambient atmosphere has been verified to be very effective in protecting the TEM sample from deterioration.

America has been, historically, the leading edge of much of the world’s engineering and IT innovations. However, with the current trends of Offshore Outsourcing high tech and high paying employment, the questions arise: why go into these fields at all. Why involve yourself with the rigorous academic requirements demanded of these disciplines; especially when one considers the real possibility of being outsourced out of a job to offshore companies. As more and more high paying American jobs are outsourced to foreign markets, we must start to recalculate the bene-fit/cost ratios of no holes barred free trade practices. The current economic expansion, we are currently experiencing, is a unique one. It has not created jobs; nor has it added to real wage growth. This has not added to the overall American standard of economic life. The benefits of the expansion have been skewed very favorably to corporate American.

In these difficult economic conditions, oil companies might accept higher challenges and risks to grasp only marginal gains. A new frontier in production methods to answer the challenge is by performing perforations in the surface casing, which is suited to fields with shallow gas such as the Tunu field, a shallow water field in the Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. This pioneering method has gone through detailed engineering studies as well as risk evaluations to validate it as a new production method. Detailed reviews of integrity, safety and operational aspects have been carried out by involving well control experts to ensure that all risks have been properly identified and mitigated. The operation begins with noise logging which aims to identify any potential cement integrity problems in the outer Annulus, and then proceeds with Annulus Cementing, Cement Logging, Perforation, Sand Consolidation and ends with Clean-Up. This operation involves 3 barges: a multipurpose barge, a testing barge and a waste containment barge. This configuration aims to minimize risks and as a part of the risk mitigation measures so that well killing operations, should they be required, could be done at any time. The operations took 51 days to complete starting from the preparation phase up to the well clean-up phase. The well clean-up shows that results exceeding the target with gas production rate of 2.6 Million Standard Cubic Feet per Day (MMSCFD) and a sand rate of only 1 cc/hr with a drawdown of 11 bars from the maximum 30 bars.Maximum drawdown is limited at 30 bars to avoid resin injection rupture which functions as a “filter” for unwanted unconsolidated sand from being produced also a the same time hydrocarbon enters from formation to inside production tubing. All operational phases have been conducted with robust engineering design and high operations standards so that the major risk of sustained annulus pressure and unintentional hydrocarbon flow to the surface could be avoided. Additionally, all precautions and risk mitigations identified during the project study have been applied throughout the job resulting in safe operations. Since the end of the operations until the production phase, the well remained intact with no integrity issue. Despite breaching the dual barrier philosophy, this job has been successfully completed without major well integrity concerns. The combination of surface casing perforation and sand consolidation has proven able to answer challenges and open up opportunities for safe production of sand prone reservoirs in shallow gas zones. The success of this pilot project proves that producing from shallow reservoirs across surface casing is operationally feasible and can be carried out in a safe manner. Other candidates are being prepared with improvements in engineering design and operational aspects to achieve maximum benefits with minimum operating cost. This paper aims to review challenges and strategies carried out starting from the detailed engineering study until operations execution which could be promising for future shallow reservoir production. Innovation of perforating the surface casing to unlock reserves in the shallow section is the first time this has been performed in the world. The context of frist time in the world since this method is specifically done in a very sensitive shallow gas prone field and targeting shallow gas pocket as reservoir.The breakthrough of this unconventional method of producing hydrocarbons will open new opportunities to enhance production especially in shallow gas prone fields worldwide.

Construction activities entail substantial disturbance of topsoil and vegetative cover. As a result, stormwater runoff and erosion rates are increased significantly. If the soil erosion and subsequently generated sediment are not contained within the site, they would have a negative off-site impact as well as a detrimental influence on the receiving water body. In this study, replicable large-scale tests were used to analyze the ability of products to prevent sediment from exiting the perimeter of a site via sheet flow. The goal of these tests was to compare products to examine how well they retain sediment and how much ponding occurs upstream, as well as other criteria of interest to the Illinois Department of Transportation. The products analyzed were silt fence, woven monofilament geotextile, Filtrexx Siltsoxx, ERTEC ProWattle, triangular silt dike, sediment log, coconut coir log, Siltworm, GeoRidge, straw wattles, and Terra-Tube. Joint tests and vegetated buffer strip tests were also conducted. The duration of each test was 30 minutes, and 116 pounds of clay-loam soil were mixed with water in a 300 gallon tank. The solution was continuously mixed throughout the test. The sediment-water slurry was uniformly discharged over an 8 ft by 20 ft impervious 3:1 slope. The bottom of the slope had a permeable zone (8 ft by 8 ft) constructed from the same soil used in the mixing. The product was installed near the center of this zone. Water samples were collected at 5 minute intervals upstream and downstream of the product. These samples were analyzed for total sediment concentration to determine the effectiveness of each product. The performance of each product was evaluated in terms of sediment removal, ponding, ease of installation, and sustainability.

In 2018 and 2019 the Southeast Coast Network (SECN), with assistance from park staff, collected long-term shoreline monitoring data at Cape Hatteras National Seashore as part of the National Park Service (NPS) Vital Signs Monitoring Program. Monitoring was conducted following methods developed by the NPS Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network and consisted of mapping the high-tide swash line using a Global Positioning System unit in the spring of each year (Psuty et al. 2010). Shoreline change was calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS; Himmelstoss et al. 2018). Following the same field methods used for monitoring long-term shoreline change, geospatial data were collected as part of the Hurricane Dorian (or Dorian) Incident Response from September 12–16, 2019. This report summarizes the post-Dorian data and the previous two shoreline data collection efforts (spring 2019 and fall 2018).

Background: Clear allergen communication in food business operators (FBOs) has been shown to have a positive impact on customers’ perceptions of businesses (Barnett et al., 2013). However, the precise size and nature of this effect is not known: there is a paucity of quantitative evidence in this area, particularly in the form of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The Food Standards Agency (FSA), in collaboration with Kantar’s Behavioural Practice, conducted a feasibility trial to investigate whether a randomised cluster trial – involving the proactive communication of allergen information at the point of sale in FBOs – is feasible in the United Kingdom (UK). Objectives: The trial sought to establish: ease of recruitments of businesses into trials; customer response rates for in-store outcome surveys; fidelity of intervention delivery by FBO staff; sensitivity of outcome survey measures to change; and appropriateness of the chosen analytical approach. Method: Following a recruitment phase – in which one of fourteen multinational FBOs was successfully recruited – the execution of the feasibility trial involved a quasi-randomised matched-pairs clustered experiment. Each of the FBO’s ten participating branches underwent pair-wise matching, with similarity of branches judged according to four criteria: Food Hygiene Rating Scheme (FHRS) score, average weekly footfall, number of staff and customer satisfaction rating. The allocation ratio for this trial was 1:1: one branch in each pair was assigned to the treatment group by a representative from the FBO, while the other continued to operate in accordance with their standard operating procedure. As a business-based feasibility trial, customers at participating branches throughout the fieldwork period were automatically enrolled in the trial. The trial was single-blind: customers at treatment branches were not aware that they were receiving an intervention. All customers who visited participating branches throughout the fieldwork period were asked to complete a short in-store survey on a tablet affixed in branches. This survey contained four outcome measures which operationalised customers’: perceptions of food safety in the FBO; trust in the FBO; self-reported confidence to ask for allergen information in future visits; and overall satisfaction with their visit. Results: Fieldwork was conducted from the 3 – 20 March 2020, with cessation occurring prematurely due to the closure of outlets following the proliferation of COVID-19. n=177 participants took part in the trial across the ten branches; however, response rates (which ranged between 0.1 - 0.8%) were likely also adversely affected by COVID-19. Intervention fidelity was an issue in this study: while compliance with delivery of the intervention was relatively high in treatment branches (78.9%), erroneous delivery in control branches was also common (46.2%). Survey data were analysed using random-intercept multilevel linear regression models (due to the nesting of customers within branches). Despite the trial’s modest sample size, there was some evidence to suggest that the intervention had a positive effect for those suffering from allergies/intolerances for the ‘trust’ (β = 1.288, p<0.01) and ‘satisfaction’ (β = 0.945, p<0.01) outcome variables. Due to singularity within the fitted linear models, hierarchical Bayes models were used to corroborate the size of these interactions. Conclusions: The results of this trial suggest that a fully powered clustered RCT would likely be feasible in the UK. In this case, the primary challenge in the execution of the trial was the recruitment of FBOs: despite high levels of initial interest from four chains, only one took part. However, it is likely that the proliferation of COVID-19 adversely impacted chain participation – two other FBOs withdrew during branch eligibility assessment and selection, citing COVID-19 as a barrier. COVID-19 also likely lowered the on-site survey response rate: a significant negative Pearson correlation was observed between daily survey completions and COVID-19 cases in the UK, highlighting a likely relationship between the two. Limitations: The trial was quasi-random: selection of branches, pair matching and allocation to treatment/control groups were not systematically conducted. These processes were undertaken by a representative from the FBO’s Safety and Quality Assurance team (with oversight from Kantar representatives on pair matching), as a result of the chain’s internal operational restrictions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.