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Nilsson, Fredrik. "Payment Volume Forecasting using Hierarchical Regression with SARIMA Errors : Payment Volume Forecasting using Hierarchical Regression with SARIMA Errors." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informationsteknologi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-425886.
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When forecasting financial transaction volumes in different markets, different markets often exhibit similar seasonality patterns and public holiday behavior. In this thesis, an attempt is made at utilizing these similarities to improve forecasting accuracy as compared to forecasting each market individually. Bayesian hierarchical regression models with time series errors are used on daily transaction data. When fitting three years of historic data for all markets, no consistent significant improvements in forecasting accuracy was found over a non-hierarchical regression model. When the amount of historic data was limited to less than one year for a single market, with the other markets having three years of historic data, the hierarchical model significantly outperformed both non-hierarchical and naive reference models on the market with limited historic data.
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Dexheimer, Verena. "Einreisetourismus in Deutschland Paneldatenanalysen und SARIMA-Prognosen." Frankfurt, M. Berlin Bern Bruxelles New York, NY Oxford Wien Lang, 2009. http://d-nb.info/1000128547/04.
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Hüser, Andreas. "Kuşaklı-Sarissa." Rahden/Westf. Leidorf, 2005. http://www.vml.de/d/detail.php?ISBN=3-89646-603-8.
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Mielke, Dirk Paul. "Kusakli-Sarissa." Rahden, Westf : Leidorf, 2006. http://www.vml.de/d/detail.php?ISBN=3-89646-602-X.
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Li, Yangyang M. Eng Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "New product forecasting of appliance and consumables : SARIMA model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/132738.
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Thesis: M. Eng. in Advanced Manufacturing and Design, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, September, 2018Cataloged from the PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 43-44).
Drinkworks is a joint venture between Anheuser-Busch InBev and Keurig Green Mountain, with a focus on developing an in-home alcohol system that can prepare different alcoholic beverages. The goal of this project is to forecast the demand for their new product, consisting of appliance and pods, without historical data. For appliance forecast, this paper focuses on an operational level model, SARIMA, which is a time series analysis that considers seasonality and has high accuracy in forecasting. The SARIMA model is implemented with grid search in Python via a demand planning tool, which saves client's time. Weighted consumption rate will be utilized with number of appliance sold to forecast future pods sales. SARIMA model proved to be an effective approach for appliance forecast within client's expectation. A systematic way to forecast pods is also proposed and demonstrated. It is hoped that the results presented here can serve as a basis and help the client with their new product launch.
by Yangyang Li.
M. Eng. in Advanced Manufacturing and Design
M.Eng.inAdvancedManufacturingandDesign Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering
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Hilmersson, Markus. "A Study Evaluating the Liquidity Risk for Non-Maturity Deposits at a Swedish Niche Bank." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273594.
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Since the 2008 financial crisis, the interest for the subject area of modelling non-maturity deposits has been growing quickly. The area has been widely analysed from the perspective of a traditional bank where customers foremost have transactional and salary deposits. However, in recent year the Swedish banking sector has become more digitized. This has opened up opportunities for more niche banking actors to establish themselves on the market. Therefore, this study aims to examine how the theories developed and previously used in modelling liquidity volumes at traditional banks can be used at a niche bank focused on savings and investments. In this study the topics covered are short-rate modelling using Vasicek's model, liquidity volume modelling using SARIMA and SARIMAX modelling as well as liquidity risk modelling using an approach developed by Kalkbrener and Willing. When modelling the liquidity volumes the data set was divided depending on account and customer type into six groups, for four out of these the models had lower in and out of set prediction errors using SARIMA models for only two of the six models were there improvements made to the in and out of set prediction error using SARIMAX models. Finally, the resulting minimization of liquidity volume forecasting 5 years in the future gave reasonable and satisfactory results.Sedan finanskrisen 2008 har intresset kring ämnesområdet gällande modellering av inlåningsvolymer utan en kontrakterad förfallodag ökat snabbt. Området har analyserats i stor utsträckning från perspektivet av en traditionell bank där kunder har framförallt transaktions- och lönekonton. De senaste åren har den Svenska banksektorn blivit mer digitaliserad. Detta har öppnat upp möjligheter för nischbanker att etablera sig på marknaden. Därför ämnar denna studie att undersöka hur teorier som har utvecklats och tidigare använts på traditionella banker för att modellera likviditetsvolymer kan användas på en nischbank som är fokuserad på sparande och investeringar. I denna studie modelleras korträntor med Vasicek's modell, likviditetsvolymer med SARIMA och SARIMAX modeller och likviditetsrisk med en modell utvecklad av Kalkbrener och Willing. För modelleringen av likviditetsvolymer delades likviditetsdatan upp i sex grupper baserat på konto- och kund typ. För fyra av dessa data set gav SARIMA-modeller lägre prediktionsfel och endast för två av de sex grupperna gav SARIMAX-modeller bättre resultat. Slutligen så gav den resulterande minimeringen av nödvändiga likviditetsvolymer på en 5 årig horisont rimliga och tillfredsställande resultat.
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Grote, Sarina [Verfasser]. "Retrospektive Kohortenanalyse fortgeschrittener HNO-Tumore am Universitätsklinikum Bonn / Sarina Grote." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1200099737/34.
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Trcka, Peter. "Výstavba lineárnych stochastických modelov časových radov triedy SARIMA – automatizovaný postup." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-193057.
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This work concerns the creation of automatized procedure of ARIMA and SARIMA class model choice according to Box-Jenkins methodology and in this connection, also deals with force testing of unit roots and analysis of applying of informatics criteria when choosing a model. The goal of this work is to create an application in the environment R that can automatically choose a model of time array generating process. The procedure is verified by a simulation study. In this work an effect of values of generating ARMA (1,1) model processes parameters is examined, for his choice and power of KPSS test, augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Peron test of unit roots.
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Ansari-Bitzenberger, Sarina [Verfasser]. "Etablierung einer Ultraschallklassifikation für die hepatische alveoläre Echinokokkose / Sarina Ansari-Bitzenberger." Ulm : Universität Ulm, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1108435556/34.
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AIDOO, ERIC. "MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Statistik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-4828.
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Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.
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Salazar, Larios Karla Maria Alejandra. "Mejora de la producción de la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia SAC." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Católica Santo Toribio de Mogrovejo, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12423/499.
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La presente investigación, se llevará a cabo en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C., cuya actividad es la producción y comercialización de hielo principalmente utilizados en la industria pesquera, los cuales tienen una presentación de 50 kilos cada uno. El problema en la empresa surge durante la temporada alta debido al aumento de la demanda en su producto, durante la cual la empresa afronta una insuficiente capacidad de producción, por lo que opta por aplicar la política de disminuir el tiempo de congelación de sus bloques de hielo, originando hielo quebradizo. Para evaluar el sistema de producción y diseñar las mejoras necesarias hacia la mejora de la productividad en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C. se determinará la demanda, para que en base a esta se pueda definir la capacidad de producción ideal de la empresa. Luego se realizará un diagnóstico de la línea de producción para mejorar los tiempos del proceso de producción de bloques de hielo. Posteriormente, se hará un diseño de las modificaciones necesarias para incrementar la capacidad de producción, y finalmente, se realizará un análisis costo-beneficio de dicho diseño que permita analizar a la empresa la conveniencia en estudio, mediante la reducción de sus costos de producción usando de forma eficiente sus procesos productivos, brindando productos de calidad, y siendo competitiva en el mercado.Tesis
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Salazar, Larios Karla María Alejandra, and Larios Karla María Alejandra Salazar. "Mejora de la producción de la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia SAC." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Católica Santo Toribio de Mogrovejo, 2015. http://tesis.usat.edu.pe/handle/usat/499.
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La presente investigación, se llevará a cabo en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C., cuya actividad es la producción y comercialización de hielo principalmente utilizados en la industria pesquera, los cuales tienen una presentación de 50 kilos cada uno. El problema en la empresa surge durante la temporada alta debido al aumento de la demanda en su producto, durante la cual la empresa afronta una insuficiente capacidad de producción, por lo que opta por aplicar la política de disminuir el tiempo de congelación de sus bloques de hielo, originando hielo quebradizo. Para evaluar el sistema de producción y diseñar las mejoras necesarias hacia la mejora de la productividad en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C. se determinará la demanda, para que en base a esta se pueda definir la capacidad de producción ideal de la empresa. Luego se realizará un diagnóstico de la línea de producción para mejorar los tiempos del proceso de producción de bloques de hielo. Posteriormente, se hará un diseño de las modificaciones necesarias para incrementar la capacidad de producción, y finalmente, se realizará un análisis costo-beneficio de dicho diseño que permita analizar a la empresa la conveniencia en estudio, mediante la reducción de sus costos de producción usando de forma eficiente sus procesos productivos, brindando productos de calidad, y siendo competitiva en el mercado.Tesis
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Salazar, Larios Karla María Alejandra. "Mejora de la producción de la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia SAC." Bachelor's thesis, Chiclayo, 2015. http://tesis.usat.edu.pe/jspui/handle/123456789/591.
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La presente investigación, se llevará a cabo en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C., cuya actividad es la producción y comercialización de hielo principalmente utilizados en la industria pesquera, los cuales tienen una presentación de 50 kilos cada uno. El problema en la empresa surge durante la temporada alta debido al aumento de la demanda en su producto, durante la cual la empresa afronta una insuficiente capacidad de producción, por lo que opta por aplicar la política de disminuir el tiempo de congelación de sus bloques de hielo, originando hielo quebradizo. Para evaluar el sistema de producción y diseñar las mejoras necesarias hacia la mejora de la productividad en la fábrica de hielo Sarita Colonia S.A.C. se determinará la demanda, para que en base a esta se pueda definir la capacidad de producción ideal de la empresa. Luego se realizará un diagnóstico de la línea de producción para mejorar los tiempos del proceso de producción de bloques de hielo. Posteriormente, se hará un diseño de las modificaciones necesarias para incrementar la capacidad de producción, y finalmente, se realizará un análisis costo-beneficio de dicho diseño que permita analizar a la empresa la conveniencia en estudio, mediante la reducción de sus costos de producción usando de forma eficiente sus procesos productivos, brindando productos de calidad, y siendo competitiva en el mercado.
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AIDOO, ERIC. "Forecast Performance Between SARIMA and SETAR Models: An Application to Ghana Inflation Rate." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-154339.
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In recent years, many research works such as Tiao and Tsay (1994), Stock and Watson (1999), Chen et al. (2001), Clements and Jeremy (2001), Marcellino (2002), Laurini and Vieira (2005) and others have described the dynamic features of many macroeconomic variables as nonlinear. Using the approach of Keenan (1985) and Tsay (1989) this study shown that Ghana inflation rates from January 1980 to December 2009 follow a threshold nonlinear process. In order to take into account the nonlinearity in the inflation rates we then apply a two regime nonlinear SETAR model to the inflation rates and then study both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast performance of this model by comparing it with the linear SARIMA model. Based on the in-sample forecast assessment from the linear SARIMA and the nonlinear SETAR models, the forecast measure MAE and RMSE suggest that the nonlinear SETAR model outperform the linear SARIMA model. Also using multi-step-ahead forecast method we predicted and compared the out-of-sample forecast of the linear SARIMA and the nonlinear SETAR models over the forecast horizon of 12 months during the period of 2010:1 to 2010:12. From the results as suggested by MAE and RMSE, the forecast performance of the nonlinear SETAR models is superior to that of the linear SARIMA model in forecasting Ghana inflation rates. Thought the nonlinear SETAR model is superior to the SARIMA model according to MAE and RMSE measure but using Diebold-Mariano test, we found no significant difference in their forecast accuracy for both in-sample and out-of-sample.
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Nikolaisen, Sävås Fredrik. "Forecast Comparison of Models Based on SARIMA and the Kalman Filter for Inflation." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-202204.
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Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. It is vital that policy makers receive accurate forecasts of inflation so that they can adjust their monetary policy to attain stability in the economy which has been shown to lead to economic growth. The purpose of this study is to model inflation and evaluate if applying the Kalman filter to SARIMA models lead to higher forecast accuracy compared to just using the SARIMA model. The Box-Jenkins approach to SARIMA modelling is used to obtain well-fitted SARIMA models and then to use a subset of observations to estimate a SARIMA model on which the Kalman filter is applied for the rest of the observations. These models are identified and then estimated with the use of monthly inflation for Luxembourg, Mexico, Portugal and Switzerland with the target to use them for forecasting. The accuracy of the forecasts are then evaluated with the error measures mean squared error (MSE), mean average deviation (MAD), mean average percentage error (MAPE) and the statistic Theil's U. For all countries these measures indicate that the Kalman filtered model yield more accurate forecasts. The significance of these differences are then evaluated with the Diebold-Mariano test for which only the difference in forecast accuracy of Swiss inflation is proven significant. Thus, applying the Kalman filter to SARIMA models with the target to obtain forecasts of monthly inflation seem to lead to higher or at least not lower predictive accuracy for the monthly inflation of these countries.
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Norambuena, Ortega Ramón Simón Andrés. "Predicción de Corto Plazo de Potencia Generada en un Aerogenerador Usando Modelo Sarima." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2011. http://www.repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/104196.
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El aumento del aporte energético por parte de las centrales eólicas dentro de la matriz de energías renovables no convencionales de Chile, crea la imperiosa necesidad de desarrollar herramientas que ayuden a gestionar el funcionamiento de parques eólicos, y en particular de los aerogeneradores que lo componen, con el fin de hacer más eficiente la integración y manejo en el sistema interconectado. En esta línea, el propósito de este trabajo es desarrollar un modelo predictivo para la potencia generada en un aerogenerador en base a series de tiempo históricas de variables atmosféricas del lugar donde éste se encuentra.
El trabajo de memoria presenta los resultados de la implementación de un modelo SARIMA (siglas en inglés de Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) y un modelo de persistencia, para predicción de velocidad de viento a horizontes de tiempo de uno y cinco pasos en una escala de tiempo de una hora por cada paso, resultados que luego son transformados a potencia eléctrica por medio de la curva de potencia del aerogenerador considerado.
La investigación conecta los campos de la física, generación de energía y de teoría de estimación. Mientras que el primero aporta las ecuaciones con las cuales se describe el viento en la atmósfera y el segundo aporta la base técnica con la cual se relaciona la velocidad del viento con la potencia generada por un aerogenerador, el tercero entrega las herramientas para poder realizar predicción a distintos horizontes por medio de series de tiempo. Por ello, el reporte comienza por los fundamentos físicos que describen la velocidad del viento en la atmósfera, para seguir con los principios técnicos de un aerogenerador y continúa mencionando técnicas utilizadas en el ámbito de la predicción. Además, se trabaja con datos muestreados durante el año 1990 en la localidad de Punta Lengua de Vaca y que fueron obtenidos por el proyecto EOLO del Departamento de Geofísica de la Universidad de Chile.
Los resultados de este trabajo permitieron conocer las limitaciones, ventajas y desventajas que poseen tanto el modelo de persistencia como los modelos SARIMA en el ámbito de predicción. En la misma línea, se cuantificó por medio de indicadores de desempeño la exactitud en las predicciones realizadas usando ambos modelos, para finalmente compararlos bajo distintos horizontes de predicción y usando datos de distintos lugares.
Finalmente se concluye que el modelo SARIMA puede ser utilizado para predicción de potencia generada en un aerogenerador y que, en comparación con el modelo de persistencia, presenta mejores resultados en predicción a cinco pasos, pero no así en el caso de predicción a un paso, donde la relación se invierte.
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Sarkar, Kripasindhu [Verfasser]. "3D Shape Representations for Learning / Kripasindhu Sarkar." München : Verlag Dr. Hut, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1232847194/34.
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Anners, Carl. "FORECASTING ENERGY USAGE IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IN SWEDEN USING SARIMA AND DYNAMIC REGRESSION." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-328292.
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Accurate prediction of future events is of great interest in various contexts. This thesis focuses on forecasting and predicting energy usage in the industrial sector, which provides valuable information for government agencies to plan and allocate the available budget. More specifically, the purpose is to evaluate if using explanatory variables in a dynamic regression with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) errors improves the forecasting accuracy of quarterly energy usage in the industrial sector in Sweden compared to a standard SARIMA model. The SARIMA model used for comparison is SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1), while the dynamic regression model used has the explanatory variable value added of the industrial sector and SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1) errors. The forecast performance of the two models is compared for both quarterly and yearly forecast horizons using root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The results show that the RMSE and MAE of the dynamic regression model are lower for both forecast horizons compared to the SARIMA model. Also, a significance test (OOS-t) and an encompassing test (ENC-NEW) are employed, which show that the difference in forecasting accuracy is statistically significant and that the SARIMA forecast doesn’t encompass the forecast of the dynamic regression model.
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Lozano, Mejía Hilter Jamess. "Migración, subalternidad y violencia política en Sarita Colonia viene volando, de Eduardo González Viaña." Master's thesis, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12672/10092.
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Desarrolla toda la crítica literaria en torno a la narrativa de Eduardo González Viaña. Analiza los postulados de Ricardo González Vigil, Luis Alberto Sánchez, José Miguel Oviedo, Miguel Donoso, Tomás Escajadillo, Roland Forgues, Harry Belevan y Francisco Carrillo. quienes afirman que la técnica narrativa de Eduardo González Viaña es poética, experimental y anegada de un realismo maravilloso, lo cual permite saber la cultura, las creencias del hombre andino, la historia local de los pueblos, lo que no se cuenta en la historia oficial. Describe características de la migración de la década de 1950. Discute la problemática de la subalternidad y la violencia política. Analiza el poder que tiene una ideología cuando atrapa a las personas. Planteamos que hay un realismo maravilloso en la representación de la guerra interna descrita en la novela, a través de la visión de Sarita Colonia Y de don Amadeo Colonia. Para finalizar, esta tesis pretende contribuir a evidenciar que hay otros textos narrativos que merecen ser atendidos por la crítica literaria, no solamente quedarnos con los textos que integran el canon oficial de la literatura peruana.Tesis
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Wunderlich, Sarina [Verfasser], and Ulf [Akademischer Betreuer] Peschel. "Second harmonic light scattering from dielectric and metallic spherical nanoparticles / Sarina Wunderlich. Gutachter: Ulf Peschel." Erlangen : Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), 2014. http://d-nb.info/1075743982/34.
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Kinene, Alan. "FORECASTING OF THE INFLATION RATES IN UGANDA: : A COMPARISON OF ARIMA, SARIMA AND VECM MODELS." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-49388.
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Young, Walter 1972. "Stoning and hand-amputation : the pre-Islamic origins of the ḥadd penalties for zinā and sariqa." Thesis, McGill University, 2005. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=98593.
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Determining whether stoning for adultery and hand-amputation for theft were practiced in pre-Islamic Arabia represents the first phase in exploring the origins and evolution of these penalties in Islamic law. Should both punishments prove to predate Islam, then it would appear the Qur'an broke with stoning and confirmed amputation of the hand. An extensive survey of pre-Islamic, Near Eastern legal materials in search of parallel penalties has thus been attempted in this thesis. Remarkably, not only stoning and hand-amputation, but nearly the entire range of Islamic adultery and theft legislation have pre-Islamic parallels. The nature of these parallels, however, does not conform to the paradigm of 'borrowing' from 'foreign' sources. Rather, Arab customary law---a major contributor to Islamic law in general---appears to have diverged from an ancient Semitic 'common source' once shared with other Near Eastern cultural entities. Most major elements of Islamic criminal law, including stoning and hand-amputation, therefore represent the culmination of an ancient Semitic common law.
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Jacobs, Sarita. "Formulation, in vitro release and transdermal diffusion of salicylic acid and topical niacinamide / by Sarita Jacobs." Thesis, North-West University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/3986.
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Acne affects as many as 80% of young adults and adolescents all over the world. This detrimental condition can be classified into four stages: (a) open comedo (blackhead), (b) closed comedo (whitehead), (c) papule and (d) pustule (Russell, 2000:357-366). There are various factors that can lead to acne outbreaks which include: (a) hormone level changes during the menstrual cycle in women, (b) certain drugs (i.e. lithium), (c) certain cosmetics and (d) environmental conditions such as humidity (University of Maryland, 2009:1).
The skin performs a variety of functions which include the two major functions: (a) the containment and (b) the protection of the internal organs of the body. The containment function relates specifically to the ability of the skin to confine the underlying tissues and restrain their movement from place to place. The protective function, on the other hand, relates to the ability of the skin to act as a microbiological barrier to most micro-organisms; a chemical barrier to exogenous chemical compounds; barrier to radiation and electrical shock; and mechanical barrier to impact (Danckwerts, 1991:315).
Niacinamide and salicylic acid were chosen in combination, due to the beneficial effects that they have on acne. Niacinamide has an anti-inflammatory action on acne; which reduces redness, dryness and irritation caused by Propioni-bacterium acnes that live in the clogged pores of pimples (Acnetreatmentlab, 2008:1). Salicylic acid is a keratolytic and keratoplastic agent. It is used in combination with other ingredients to enhance the shedding of corneocytes. This causes penetration into the skin to be very difficult (SAMF, 2005:177).
The solubility of niacinamide and salicylic acid in PBS (pH 7.4 at 32°C) were 212.95 mg/ml and 4.07 mg/ml, respectively. The log D values of niacinamide and salicylic acid were determined to be -0.32 and 0.33, respectively. According to the solubility of niacinamide and salicylic acid it was expected that both of the active ingredients would permeate through the skin. However, it is expected that niacinamide will depict enhanced permeation with respect to salicylic acid. The results of the log D for both of the active ingredients indicate that there would not be optimal permeation.
This study involved the formulation of four different acne preparations (Pheroid™cream, Pheroid™gel, cream and gel), combining niacinamide and salicylic acid. The evaluation of stability parameters for the different formulations indicated that none of the formulations was stable under the different storage conditions determined by the Medicines Control Council. Nevertheless, the cream and gel were the most stable of the four formulations. Visual assessment of the Pheroid™ formulations with the confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLMS) was conducted and inconclusive evidence to whether the active substances were entrapped within the Pheroids™, was obtained.
Franz cell diffusion studies indicated that the cream (in the case of niacinamide) and gel (in the case of salicylic acid) depicted the highest average and median flux from hours 6 to 12. Results of the tape stripping studies showed that with the gel formulation, concentrations of 2.060 ug/ml and 44.749 ug/ml niacinamide were obtained in the epidermis and dermis respectively. After the Pheroid™ gel was applied, tape stripping depicted only 1.587 ug/ml niacinamide in the epidermis with respect to 22.764 ug/ml niacinamide in the dermis. The cream formulation, on the other hand, showed niacinamide concentrations of 2.001 ug/ml in the epidermis and 13.363 ug/ml in the dermis, whereas with the Pheroid™ cream formulation, concentrations of 1.097 ug/ml and 18.061 ug/ml were obtained in the epidermis and dermis respectively.
Tape stripping results depicted that with the gel formulation, concentrations of 2.113 ug/ml and 49.519 ug/ml salicylic acid were obtained in the epidermis and dermis respectively, whereas the Pheroid™ gel formulation showed salicylic acid, concentrations of 1.114 ug/ml in the epidermis and 95.360 ug/ml in the dermis. The cream formulation, however, depicted salicylic acid concentrations of 0.758 ug/ml in the epidermis and 44.729 ug/ml in the dermis. Lastly, after the Pheroid™ cream was applied, salicylic acid concentrations of 0.411 ug/ml and 48.424 ug/ml in the epidermis and dermis respectively, were measured.
It could, therefore, be concluded that both niacinamide and salicylic acid tend to concentrate more in the dermis, irrespective of the formulation. This may be an advantage since acne is usually targeted in the dermis and epidermis.Thesis (M.Sc. (Pharmaceutics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.
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Campos, Morales Alejandra María. "La teatralidad como potenciadora de la experiencia : los conciertos del grupo de rock-fusión La Sarita." Bachelor's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2016. http://tesis.pucp.edu.pe/repositorio/handle/123456789/7934.
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La teatralidad es una manera de expresión del hombre a lo largo del tiempo, así lo afirmaba
Nicolás Evreinov a inicios del siglo XX apuntando a que esta diferencia a la especie
humana de otras especies, por su capacidad de representar. Al referirme a teatralidad,
pienso en el teatro y me remonto miles de años atrás a Grecia, a los orígenes del teatro
occidental. Pienso en las representaciones teatrales en torno a las divinidades, a los ciclos
astrológicos y a los ciclos de trabajo de la tierra y en cómo la teatralidad fue una pieza
central en la celebración de estos rituales. Pienso también en los ritos de iniciación de la
adultez en diferentes culturas, en la preparación de los jóvenes, en la pintura o vestuario
especial que usan para la ocasión, en la música o los cantos que los acompañan y en la
convocatoria al pueblo como espectador y testigo de la proeza que el joven va a realizar.
Considero que la teatralidad va de la mano del desarrollo de la vida en sociedad, por ende
de la vida de las personas.Tesis
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Travasso, Rita Alexandre Peralta. "Avaliação do perfil de biomarcadores enzimáticos em Sardina pilchardus." Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/7336.
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Mestrado em Biologia Aplicada - Biologia MarinhaAs sardinhas (Sardina pilchardus) capturadas no Atlântico Nordeste são um recurso alimentar comum em Portugal. No entanto, o efeito de potenciais compostos antropogénicos nesta espécie nunca foi avaliado, nem tão pouco foi avaliado o eventual efeito destes compostos em sardinhas capturadas em diferentes locais da costa portuguesa. Tendo em conta a importância da sardinha para o consumo humano, torna-se relevante caracterizar as suas respostas fisiológicas à contaminação. Sendo amplamente capturadas na costa Portuguesa, é importante conhecer em detalhe os padrões de resposta de sardinha à contaminação química, bem como a variabilidade intrínseca (ex: ciclo reprodutivo e estado nutricional) e extrínseca (ex: influência de factores abióticos) dos níveis de resposta. O presente trabalho pretendeu monitorizar mensalmente alterações fisiológicas/adaptativas de Sardina pilchardus no Atlântico Norte, descarregadas em três portos comerciais portugueses (Matosinhos, Aveiro e Peniche), durante um período de nove meses (Maio 2010 – Janeiro 2011). Para tal, utilizou-se uma abordagem de quantificação de biomarcadores (catalase - CAT, glutationa-S-transferase - GSTs; lactato desidrogenase - LDH; acetilcolinesterase – AChE), que foram relacionados com indicadores de estado nutricional, reprodutivo, e fisiológico (índices de condição, K, K (gut), K (liver); índice gonadossomático, GSI; índice hepatossomático, HSI). Assim, o objectivo do presente trabalho foi o de perceber de que forma o uso de biomarcadores, enquanto ferramenta de avaliação da exposição a contaminantes, é afectado pela variabilidade natural (população/zona geográfica e ciclo de vida/sazonalidade). Os resultados apontam para alguma variação entre áreas geográficas distintas, mas o principal contributo para a variação dos dados foi a sazonalidade. Os níveis de LDH, na globalidade, foram significativamente mais elevados durante o período mais quente (Maio a Setembro), tendo a partir daí decrescido até Janeiro, ao passo que a actividade da AChE variou mensalmente, mas sem um padrão perceptível. As actividades de CAT e GSTs aumentaram gradualmente de Maio a Setembro, tendo diminuído a partir do mês de Setembro. A análise de correlação revelou uma associação significativa entre os biomarcadores e vários índices do estado fisiológico e reprodutivo. Esta associação foi consistente entre populações: a LDH pareceu estar relacionada com o factor de condição (K), ao passo que a CAT e GSTs se relacionaram com o GSI e, no caso das GSTs, também com o HSI e estado nutricional. Os dados apontam claramente para uma grande influência do ciclo reprodutivo na actividade de várias enzimas usadas como biomarcadores. keywords
Sardines (Sardina pilchardus), captured in the Northeast Atlantic, are a common food resource in Portugal. However, the effect of potential anthropogenic compounds in the species was never evaluated, nor the effect of such compounds in fish captured off the Portuguese coast. Bearing in mind the importance of sardine for human consumption, it is important to characterise their physiological responses to contamination. Thus, it seems vital to study the response patterns of sardines to chemical contamination, as well as the intrinsic (ex: reproductive cycle and nutritional state) and extrinsic (variation in abiotic factors) variability in the levels of response. The present work intended to monitor physiological/adaptive alterations in Sardina pilchardus in three distinct locations in the North Atlantic, using freshly caught sardines obtained in three Portuguese fishing ports (Matosinhos, Aveiro and Peniche). This was performed on a monthly basis, for a period of nine months (May 2010 – January 2011). To do so, a biomarker approach (catalase – CAT, glutathione S-transferases – GST, lactate dehydrogenase – LDH, and acetylcholinesterase – AChE) was used, and these biochemical parameters were correlated with nutritional, reproductive, and physiological state indicators (condition factors, K, K (gut), K (liver); gonadosomatic index, GSI; hepatosomatic index, HSI). Thus, the goal of the present thesis was to understand how the use of biomarkers, as a tool in the evaluation of contaminant exposure, is affected by natural variability in sardine populations (population/geographic area and life cycle/seasonality). Our results point towards some variation among distinct geographical areas/populations, but the main contribution in the variation of the data was due to seasonality. LDH values, overall, were significantly higher during the warmer period (May to September), decreasing from there onwards until January. AChE activity varied monthly but no consistent pattern emerged. CAT and GSTs activities gradually increased from May to September, decreasing from September onwards. Correlation analysis revealed significant associations between biomarkers and physiological and reproductive state. This association was consistent among populations: LDH was related to condition factor (K), while CAT and GSTs were correlated to GSI and, in the case of GSTs, also with HSI and nutritional state. Our data clearly point out a large influence of the reproductive cycle in the activity of several enzymes, normally used as biomarkers of environmental contamination.
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Zwolinski, Juan Pablo. "Estimação acústica da distribuição e abundância de Sardina pilchardus." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/942.
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Doutoramento em BiologiaEsta dissertação integra informação sobre a ecologia, distribuição e abundância de sardinha (Sardina pilchardus) na costa continental Portuguesa e Golfo de Cádiz com o recurso a métodos acústicos. O material de estudo foi recolhido nas campanhas acústicas levadas a cabo pelo Instituto Nacional de Recursos Biológicos/IPIMAR entre 2000 e 2007, destinadas à monitorização do stock Ibero-Atlântico de sardinha. A dissertação é constituída por 4 trabalhos que visam aprofundar o conhecimento dos factores ambientais e biológicos que influenciam a distribuição da sardinha e consequentemente a sua avaliação directa através do rastreio acústico. No primeiro estudo mostra-se que a típica distribuição costeira da sardinha está relacionada com a presença de massas de água menos salinas, mais frias e ricas em fitoplâncton e que a sardinha responde às mudanças sazonais das massas de água na plataforma continental com mudanças na sua distribuição. No segundo e terceiro trabalhos estudou-se o comportamento da sardinha em escalas que normalmente não são exploradas durante as campanhas de estimação de abundância. Nestes trabalhos revela-se como a distribuição da sardinha em pequena escala é governada pelo comportamento social, em particular a reprodução e o comportamento agregativo em cardumes. O último trabalho debruçouse sobre o cálculo da abundância, empregando metodologias de modelação recentes que mostraram ser capazes de gerar estimativas de abundância não enviesadas e com variâncias inferiores às obtidas através de métodos tradicionais.
This dissertation compiles information from acoustic surveys on ecology, distribution and abundance of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) off the continental coast of Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz. The information was collected during routine acoustic surveys for the monitoring of the Atlanto-Iberian sardine stock performed by the Portuguese Fisheries Research Institute (INRB/IPIMAR) between 2000 and 2007. The dissertation is based on four independent studies which were aimed at improving the knowledge of the environmental and biological factors that affect sardine distribution and consequently estimates of abundance by acoustic surveys. In the first study, the typical coastal distribution of sardine is described and the relationship between sardine presence in the cooler, less saline and chlorophyll rich waters is investigated; When the mesoscale water circulation modified the distribution of the coastal water masses, sardine responded accordingly by changing its distribution. The second and third studies focus on processes usually disregarded during routine surveying. It is shown that the small scale distribution of sardine is dictated by social behaviour, in particular spawning and schooling. The last study addresses the estimation of abundance: a recent statistical methodology is apllied to a large time series of acoustic surveys, providing unbiased and more precise estimates than traditional methods.
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Almarzook, Saria [Verfasser], Gudrun [Gutachter] Brockmann, Armin [Gutachter] Schmitt, and Dirk [Gutachter] Hinrichs. "Biodiversity of Arabian horses in Syria / Saria Almarzook ; Gutachter: Gudrun Brockmann, Armin Schmitt, Dirk Hinrichs." Berlin : Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1184576769/34.
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Silveira, Sarita [Verfasser], and Ernst [Akademischer Betreuer] Pöppel. "The influence of mental frames on the neurocognitive processing of visual art / Sarita Silveira. Betreuer: Ernst Pöppel." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1052015441/34.
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Khoday, Amar. "The Lokamanya and the Sardar : two generations of congress 'communalism'." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ47769.pdf.
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D'Angelo, Maria Carolina. "Analisi dell'accrescimento giornaliero della Sardina pilchardus nel Canale di Sicilia." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2015. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/8283/.
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Lo studio effettuato riguarda l’accrescimento giornaliero della Sardina pilchardus, (Walbaum, 1792) tramite la lettura degli anelli di crescita giornaliera negli otoliti. Nel Mediterraneo centrale il lavoro svolto è il primo di questo tipo su S. pilchardus. Il campionamento è avvenuto durante la campagna oceanografica "Anchevatir 2012", 69 otoliti sono stati estratti da esemplari con lunghezza totale compresa tra 7 ed 12.5 cm e successivamente sottoposti ad inclusione, sezionamento e levigatura per la realizzazione di sezioni sottili. Sull’intero campione è stata stimata l’età con due metodi: lettura degli anelli giornalieri sotto microscopio e conteggio dei microincrementi tramite analisi d’immagine. L’età stimata è compresa tra i 90 e 230 giorni, tuttavia la maggior parte degli individui presenta un’età tra i 120 e 150 giorni. Inoltre è stata determinata la data di nascita degli esemplari, avvenuta tra Dicembre 2011 e Febbraio 2012. In seguito è stata condotta un’analisi della media dell’ampiezza degli incrementi per descrivere i pattern di crescita giornaliera: l’andamento risultante è crescente con il procedere dell’età fino a circa il 50° giorno, poi si stabilizza fino al 150°, infine i valori medi decrescono. La backcalculation ha permesso di stimare il tasso di accrescimento giornaliero della lunghezza del corpo. Sono state analizzate tre serie distinte per data di nascita (Dicembre 2011, Gennaio 2012 e Febbraio 2012); queste hanno mostrato pattern di accrescimento analogo. La crescita iniziale stimata è di 0.2 mm/d, raggiunge 0.6 mm/d intorno al 40° giorno, ed oltre il 100° si è osservato un decremento nell’accrescimento giornaliero, soprattutto nella serie di Dicembre. Le differenze più rilevanti nei pattern delle tre serie mensili sono state riscontrate nei valori medi fra Dicembre e Febbraio. L’analisi della temperatura media superficiale ha permesso di ipotizzare che questa crescita maggiore degli individui nati in Febbraio sia collegata all’aumento di temperatura registrato da Marzo in poi. Tale risultato suggerisce che le condizioni ambientali e quindi i ritmi metabolici e d’accrescimento nei mesi successivi a Febbraio sono più favorevoli rispetto ai mesi invernali.
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El, Fasskaoui Brahim. "Jbel Sarhro : mutations d'une société et de son environement géographique." Nancy 2, 1996. http://www.theses.fr/1996NAN21016.
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Longeant la dépression sud-atlasique et parallèle au haut-atlas, le Jbel Sarhro constitue, avec le Jbel Ougnate, la continuité de l'Anti-Atlas vers le nord-est. C’est aussi une montagne aride et désolée. Cependant, cette montagne est occupée par une grande et complexe formation tribale, les Ait Atta. Si la plus grande partie de ce massif est un désert humain, le fond des vallées et les petites terrasses alluviales sont densément peuplées. Partout les hommes associent, presque toujours, les deux formes d'économie rurale : une activité pastorale et une agriculture irriguée intensive dans des proportions variées ; l'une ou l'autre n'étant jamais exclusive. Si la vie sociale s'organise autour d'un semi-nomadisme dans le Sarhro proprement dit, sa retombée méridionale est organisée en un chapelet d'agro-systèmes fondés sur la maitrise de l'eau d'irrigation. La vie sociale s'organise dans les ksour et autour des khettaras. Même si les conditions physiques imposent un mode de vie identique et une relative uniformité physionomique et organisationnelle dans toute la zone, les facteurs humains ont imposé une diversité fonctionnelle : l'histoire sociale du sud-est marocain est liée à la conquête de l'eau et des pâturages. Chaque groupe, quand il s'installe sur un territoire, apporte avec lui ses valeurs et ses logiques d'aménagement de l'espace. De ce fait, le sillon oasien présente une multitude de cas ; chaque oasis relève d'une organisation particulièreBoarding the south atlasic depression and parallel to high-atlas in the Moroccan south east, the Jbel Sarho with the Jbel Ougnate constitute the continuity of the anti-atlas towards the north east. Therefore, it also an arid and desolate mountain. However, this mountain occupied by a longer and complex tribal group, the Ait Atta. If the largest part of this massif is human desert the bottom of the valise and the small alluvial terraces are defensibly populated. Everywhere man associate almost always the two rural economic forms : pastoral activity and intensify agriculture, as well as a variety of proportions which are never exclusive. It social life is organized around semi-nomads in the Sarho as it is called; its southern fallout is organized in a rosemary of farm-systems founded on water irrigation control. The social life is organized in the ksour and around the khettas. Even if the physical condition impose an identical way of life and a relative physical and organizational informality in all areas, the human factors have impose the functional diversity : the social history of the Moroccan south east is linked with the conquest of water and pastures. Each group when he settles down on the soil brings with him his values and logical space management. From this fact, the oasis an furrow presents a multitude of cases each oasis is a concern of particular organization
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Han, Jianfeng, and 韩剑峰. "Comparing the performance of SARIMA and dynamic linear model in forecasting monthly cases of mumps in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/193789.
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Background
To provide a reliable forecast of a disease is one of the main purpose of public health surveillance system. Basic information obtained from data collection can provide the nature knowledge of and the history pattern of a disease.
In public health surveillance system, a lot of data are time series, especially for infectious diseases. SARIMA method and DLM method are both applicable tools for time series data analysis.
Hong Kong has a relative low mumps prevalence. And the prevalence followed an increasing trend until 2004and kept stable after 2006. However, outbreaks may be also occurred occasionally in developed countries.
Method
This paper constructs SARIMA models and DLM models of monthly cases of mumps in Hong Kong based on 7 different modeling periods respectively. Then these models were used to predicting the mumps cases in each corresponding forecasting period. The forecasting performance of SARIMA models and DLM models are compared with visualization of the predicting values and three forecasting error measures: MAD, MSE, and MAPE.
A forecasting of mumps cases during 2013. 07 and 2014.06 will be made with the method with better forecasting performance of mumps cases in Hong Kong
Result
For intervals 2009. 01 to 2009. 02, 2011. 01 to 2011. 12, and 2012. 01 to 2012. 12, the forecasts of DLM models have smaller forecasting error measures and are more closely to the real observed values. And the visualization predicting values of SARIMA and DLM models are closely for forecasting intervals 2008 and 2010, where SARIMA forecasts own smaller forecasting error measures.
Compare with that based on fitting period 1997 to 2012, the forecasts obtained by the SARIMA model based on fitting period 2006 to 2012 are more close to the real observations.
Both SARIMA models and DLM models based on fitting period 1997 to 2003 underestimate the observed value of 2004. 05 to 2004. 12.
Conclusion
DLM modeling method presents a better performance on forecasting the monthly cases of mumps in Hong Kong. And DLM method is more appropriate to be applied on the analysis of time series with count data and the research of diseases with small counts. And both SARIMA and DLM method are appropriate for analyses based on long time trend. But they are not appropriate to be applied as short time monitor tools.
From the result of time series decomposition analysis result the mumps cases had a seasonal pattern, and shows that between July and the next January, the seasonal impact will contribute to the increase of case number of mumps. So it is highly suggest to recommend people under risk to practice more prevention measures to protect them against mumps infectious during that period.published_or_final_version
Public Health
Master
Master of Public Health
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Reetz, Romy Sarina Verfasser], and Arne [Akademischer Betreuer] [May. "Modulation der TRPV1-vermittelten Hyperalgesie im trigeminalen System bei Insufflation von Kohlenstoffdioxid / Romy Sarina Reetz. Betreuer: Arne May." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1101695749/34.
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Chakhchoukh, Yacine. "Contribution à l'estimation robuste des modèles SARIMA : application à la prévision à court terme de la consommation d'électricité." Paris 11, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PA112035.
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Dans cette thèse, un certain nombre de méthodes robustes existantes dans la littérature statistique sont utilisées pour l’estimation de modèle SARIMA dans le contexte de séries chronologiques corrélées. La contribution de ce travail est de proposer de nouvelles méthodes robustes qui tout en permettant une meilleure prévision, assurent l’association d’une bonne robustesse à une efficacité élevée. Ceci est confirmé théoriquement. Il s’agit d’améliorer la prévision à court terme de la consommation électrique en France en tenant compte de valeurs déviantes dues notamment aux jours fériés ainsi qu’à d’autres jours spéciaux et des aléas divers. Nous proposons trois méthodes à la fois robustes et efficaces : un estimateur basé sur le rapport des médianes(MR), un estimateur basé sur la médiane des rapports (MR), et un estimateur basé sur la minimisation de la distance de Hellinger (MHDE). Une quatrième méthode, qui est une version robuste de lissage exponentiel double saisonnier, est aussi proposée. Ces méthodes ont l’avantage de pouvoir être exécutées rapidement. L’analyse théorique de la robustesse ainsi que l’étude du comportement asymptomatique de ces estimateurs sont effectuées. Nous proposons aussi deux approches de modélisation multivariée simple pour gérer l’hétéroscédasticitéIn this thesis, a number of existing robust methods in the statistical literature are used to estimate SARIMA models in the context of correlated time series. The contribution of this work is to propose new robust methods. While allowing better forecasting, these methods provide a combination of good robustness and high effiency. This is confirmed theoretically. The goal is to improve the short-term forecasting of electricity consumption in France by taking into account the presence of outliers due to holidays and other special days and various hazards. We propose three robust and efficient methods : an estimator based on the ratio of median (RM), an estimator based on the median of ratios (MR), and an estimator based on minimizing the Hellinger distance (MHDE). A fourth method, which is a robust version of the double seasonal exponential smoothing, is also proposed. These methods have the advantage of fast execution of fast excution. The theoretical analysis of the robustness and the study of asymptotic behaviour of these estimators are made. We also propose two simple multivariate modelling approachs to handle heteroscedasticity
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Balfegó, Díaz Mariona. "Diabetis mellitus tipus 2: Impacte metabòlic d'una dieta rica en sardina." Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/482042.
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INTRODUCCIÓ: La teràpia nutricional és un dels pilars del tractament de la diabetis tipus 2 (DM2). Diverses organitzacions nacionals i internacionals de nutrició i diabetis recomanen el consum de peix (preferentment peix blau) com a mínim 2 cops a la setmana per prevenir la malaltia cardiovascular. Tot i això, existeixen molt pocs estudis que hagin investigat els efectes de la inclusió del peix blau en el control glucèmic i la sensibilitat a la insulina de pacients amb DM2.
OBJECTIUS: L’objectiu primari d’aquesta tesi va ser investigar els efectes d’una dieta rica en sardina en els valors d’hemoglobina glicosilada (HbA1c) de pacients amb DM2 sense tractament antidiabètic.
Els objectius secundaris van ser investigar els efectes de la intervenció dietètica en la resistència a la insulina, les concentracions d’adiponectina, marcadors d’inflamació, la pressió arterial, la freqüència cardíaca, el perfil lipídic, la microbiota intestinal, la composició d’àcids grassos en membranes d’eritròcits i la qualitat de vida dels pacients.
METODOLOGIA: 35 pacients amb DM2 sense tractament antidiabètic van ser randomitzats per seguir una dieta amb recomanacions generals per la DM2 (grup control: GC), o una dieta amb recomanacions generals per la DM2 enriquida amb 100g de sardina en llauna 5 cops a la setmana (grup sardina: GS) durant 6 mesos. Abans i després de la intervenció dietètica es van determinar l’antropometria, hàbits alimentaris i història dietètica, l’HbA1c, la glucosa, la insulina, l’adiponectina, marcadors d’inflamació, la pressió arterial, la freqüència cardíaca, la composició d’àcids grassos en membranes d’eritròcits i la composició de grups bacterians específics de la microbiota intestinal. Abans i després de la intervenció dietètica també es va avaluar la qualitat de vida dels pacients.
RESULTATS: L’HbA1c i la glucosa en dejú van disminuir en els dos grups als 6 mesos de la intervenció dietètica (GS: -0,2 ± 0,1% HbA1c, -9,6 ± 5,4 mg/dL glucosa; GC: -0,3 ± 0,1% HbA1c, -5,2 ± 5,5 mg/dL glucosa) sent només significativa la reducció de l’HbA1c en el GC (p=0,01) respecte els valors basals.
Els dos grups d’intervenció van disminuir de manera significativa la insulina plasmàtica (GS: -35%, p=0,01; GC:-22,6%, p=0,02) i el model homeostàtic de resistència a la insulina (HOMA-IR) (SG: -39,2%, p=0,007; CG: -21,8%, p=0,04) als 6 mesos respecte els valors basals. Tot i això, només el GS va incrementar l’adiponectina en plasma en comparació amb l’inici de l’estudi (+40,7%, p=0,04).
L’índex omega-3 va augmentar significativament d’un 5,3% a un 8% al GS respecte el GC (p=0,001). Les dues intervencions dietètiques van disminuir les concentracions del fílum Firmicutes (GS i GC: p=0,04) i van incrementar les de grup E. coli (GS: p=0,01, CG: p=0,03) respecte els valors basals. Només el GS va diminuir el ratio Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes (p=0,04) i va incrementar el grup Bacteroides- Prevotella (p=0,004). Tot i que la pressió arterial i el perfil lipídic no es van modificar en resposta a la dieta enriquida amb sardina, si va disminuir la freqüència cardíaca (p=0,01). Els pàrametres de qualitat de vida valorats no es van modificar de manera significativa en el GS en comparació amb el GC.
CONCLUSIONS: Els resultats d’aquesta tesi suggereixen que la inclusió de 100g de sardina 5 dies a la setmana durant 6 mesos no millora el control glucèmic però podria tenir efectes beneficiosos sobre el risc cardiovascular de pacients amb DM2 aconseguint valors òptims d’índex omega-3. A més, l’increment d’adiponectina observat en el GS podria indicar beneficis en la inflamació metabòlica, i la modificació de bactèries intestinals específiques en resposta a la dieta rica en sardina revela l’estreta relació entre components dietètics i la microbiota intestinal. Igualment, els resultats mostren que tan una dieta amb recomanacions generals per la DM2 com una dieta rica en sardina poden millorar la resistència a la insulina de pacients amb DM2.BACKGROUND: Nutrition therapy is the cornerstone of treating diabetes mellitus. The inclusion of fish (particularly oily fish) at least two times per week is recommended by current international dietary guidelines for type 2 diabetes. In contrast to a large number of human studies examining the effects of oily fish on different cardiovascular risk factors, little research on this topic is available in patients with type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this thesis was to investigate the effects of a sardine-enriched diet on glycemic control of drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes. The secondary objectives were to investigate the effects of the dietary intervention on insuline resistance, adiponectin, inflammatory markers, blood pressure, heart rate, lipid profile, gut microbiota, erythrocyte membrane fatty acid (EMFA) composition and quality of life of drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: 35 drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes were randomized to follow either a type 2 diabetes standard diet (control group: CG), or a standard diet enriched with 100 g of sardines 5 days a week (sardine group: SG) for 6 months. Anthropometric, dietary information, quality of life evaluation, fasting glycated hemoglobin, glucose, insulin, adiponectin, inflammatory markers, blood pressure, heart rate, EMFA and specific bacterial strains were determined before and after intervention. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in glycated hemoglobin and fasting glucose between groups at the end of the study (SG: -0,2 ± 0,1% HbA1c, -9,6 ± 5,4 mg/dL fasting glucose; CG: -0,3 ± 0,1% HbA1c, -5,2 ± 5,5 mg/dL fasting glucose). Both groups decreased plasma insulin (SG: −35.3 %, P = 0.01, CG: −22.6 %, P = 0.02) and homeostasis model of assessment - insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (SG: −39.2 %, P = 0.007, CG: −21.8 %, P = 0.04) at 6-months from baseline. However only SG increased adiponectin in plasma compared to baseline level (+40.7 %, P = 0.04). The omega-3 index increased 2.6 % in the SG compared to 0.6 % in the CG (P = 0.001). Both dietary interventions decreased phylum Firmicutes (SG and CG: P = 0.04) and increased E. coli concentrations (SG: P = 0.01, CG: P = 0.03) at the end of the study from baseline, whereas SG decreased Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio (P = 0.04) and increased Bacteroides-Prevotella (P = 0.004) compared to baseline. Although blood pressure and lipid profile did not show any significant changes after the sardine dietary intervention, heart rate only decreased significantly in SG from baseline (P=0.01). The quality life parameters did not differ between groups at the end of the study. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this thesis suggests that the inclusion of 100 g of sardines 5 days a week during 6 months does not improve glycemic control but it could have beneficial effects on cardiovascular risk of drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes by achieving optimal levels of Omega-3 Index. Furthermore, the increase observed in adiponectin levels in SG might indicate beneficial effects on metabolic inflammation, and the gut specific bacterial strains modification in response to sardine diet revealed the close relationship between dietary components and gut microbiota. Additionally, the results show that a diet based on general dietary recomendations for type 2 diabetes and also a diet enriched with sardines could improve insuline resistance of drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes.
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Flicker, John. "Ṣoḍaśī-pūjā: Ramakrishna’s Worship of Sarada Devi through a Feminist Lens." Digital Commons at Loyola Marymount University and Loyola Law School, 2021. https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/etd/1002.
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Traditional heteronormative gender narratives in the Hindu religion, such as pativratā, do not always provide a clear basis for women’s empowerment within Hindu ritual. The Ṣoḍaśī-pūjā, in which Ramakrishna worshiped his wife Sarada Devi as the living goddess Ṣoḍaśī, provides a clear and subversive template to establish a unique form of feminism rooted in Kālī-bhakti. This paper seeks to develop a novel Hindu feminism called Strī-Śakti-Bhāva according to a four-fold tantric empowerment: (1) strī-śakti, (2) śaktipāta, (3) devībhāva, and (4) śakti-sevā. This study draws upon various English translations of Bengali hagiographies in the Ramakrishna tradition and contemporary research materials from Indian feminist scholars. Since the Ṣoḍaśī-pūjā empowered Sarada Devi to serve as the spiritual mother of the Ramakrishna Order, this paper concludes that Ṣoḍaśī-pūjā certainly provides a mechanism of women’s empowerment that is uniquely situated within the Hindu religion.
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Wöstmann, Corinna. "Energy Consumption - Forecasting for Linköping and Helsingborg : A Comparison of SARIMA Modelling and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för matematik (MA), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-28318.
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Energy consumption forecasting is important for ecient planning of electricity production in order to minimize costs and also to ensure that the demand will be covered. In this thesis two methods are suggested: a combination of SARIMA modelling and regression, and forecasting by using the double seasonal Holt-Winters algorithm for exponential smoothing. Both methods are tested on energy consumption data for the regions Linkoping and Helsingborg provided by Bixia. Private and industry clients are regarded separately for regular days and holidays. The exponential smoothing method leads to good results for dierent forecasting horizons. Therefore an easier method, that is at least competitive to forecasts with SARIMA models, is found.
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Töllner, Uwe. "Sartres Ontologie und die Frage einer Ethik : zur Vereinbarkeit einer normativen Ethik und/oder Metaethik mit der Ontologie non "L'étre et le néant /." Frankfurt am Main : P. Lang, Europäischer Verl. der Wissenschaften, 1996. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb36187177k.
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Samuelsson, Petter, and David Magnusson. "Tidsserieanalys över svensk varuhandel januari 1975 – augusti 2010." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-146035.
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Syftet med denna uppsats är att modellera och prognostisera Sveriges varuexport, varuimport och handelsnetto. Vi använder oss av data från januari 1975 till och med augusti 2010 för respektive serie. Dessa data testas och jämförs i olika ARIMA- och SARIMA-modeller samt skattas även medelst säsongsreningsprogrammet TRAMO/SEATS. För de modeller som bäst passar serierna genomförs därefter in sample- och out of sample-analyser med felmåtten RMSE och MAPE. Modellerna med bäst felmått och som därpå väljs ut för att göra prognoser för serierna till och med augusti 2012 är (3,1,0)x(0,1,1) för export, (2,1,1)x(0,1,1) för import samt (0,1,1)x(0,1,1) skattad i TRAMO/SEATS för handelsnetto.
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Rerkyusuke, Sarinya [Verfasser]. "Investigations on the intra vital diagnoses of paratuberculosis in goats / Sarinya Rerkyusuke." Hannover : Bibliothek der Tierärztlichen Hochschule Hannover, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1073930653/34.
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Sidhu, Guftaar Ahmad Sardar [Verfasser]. "Resource Allocation in OFDM Based Wireless Relay Networks / Guftaar Ahmad Sardar Sidhu." Bremen : IRC-Library, Information Resource Center der Jacobs University Bremen, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1035264595/34.
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Sarkar, Abhishek [Verfasser], Horst [Akademischer Betreuer] Hahn, and Jürgen [Akademischer Betreuer] Janek. "High Entropy Oxides: Structure and Properties / Abhishek Sarkar ; Horst Hahn, Jürgen Janek." Darmstadt : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1222674432/34.
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Sarkar, Abhishek Verfasser], Horst [Akademischer Betreuer] [Hahn, and Jürgen [Akademischer Betreuer] Janek. "High Entropy Oxides: Structure and Properties / Abhishek Sarkar ; Horst Hahn, Jürgen Janek." Darmstadt : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1222674432/34.
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Kritharas, Petros. "Developing a SARIMAX model for monthly wind speed forecasting in the UK." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/16350.
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Wind is a fluctuating source of energy and, therefore, it can cause several technical impacts. These can be tackled by forecasting wind speed and thus wind power. The introduction of several statistical models in this field of research has brought to light promising results for improving wind speed predictions. However, there is not converging evidence on which is the optimal method. Over the last three decades, significant research has been carried out in the field of short-term forecasting using statistical models though less work focuses on longer timescales. The first part of this work concentrated on long-term wind speed variability over the UK. Two subsets have been used for assessing the variability of wind speed in the UK on both temporal and spatial coverage over a period representative of the expected lifespan of a wind farm. Two wind indices are presented with a calculated standard deviation of 4% . This value reveals that such changes in the average UK wind power capacity factor is equal to 7%. A parallel line of the research reported herein aimed to develop a novel statistical forecasting model for generating monthly mean wind speed predictions. It utilised long-term historic wind speed records from surface stations as well as reanalysis data. The methodology employed a SARIMAX model that incorporated monthly autocorrelation of wind speed and seasonality, and also included exogenous inputs. Four different cases were examined, each of which incorporated different independent variables. The results disclosed a strong association between the independent variables and wind speed showing correlations up to 0.72. Depending on each case, this relationship occurred from 4- up to 12-month lags. The inter comparison revealed an improvement in the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model compared to a similar model that did not take into account exogenous variables. This finding demonstrates the indisputable potential of using a SARIMAX for long-term wind speed forecasting.
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Galster, Ingrid. "Le Théâtre de Jean-Paul Sartre devant ses premiers critiques. "Les Mouches" et "Huis clos /." Tübingen : Paris : G. Narr ; J.-M. Place, 1986. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb36147597g.
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Jankl, Sarika [Verfasser], and Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] Weis. "Die Bedeutung des endogenen NO-Synthase Inhibitors ADMA auf die Aktivierung von humanen Dendritischen Zellen / Sarika Jankl. Betreuer: Michael Weis." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1023205912/34.
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Thomas, Sarina [Verfasser], and Klaus Hermann [Akademischer Betreuer] Maier-Hein. "Automatic image analysis of C-arm Computed Tomography images for ankle joint surgeries / Sarina Thomas ; Betreuer: Klaus Hermann Maier-Hein." Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1211820785/34.
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Schäfer, Sarina J. [Verfasser], Oliver [Akademischer Betreuer] Christ, Oliver [Gutachter] Christ, and Ulrich [Gutachter] Wagner. "Understanding the Effects of Positive and Negative Intergroup Contact / Sarina J. Schäfer ; Gutachter: Oliver Christ, Ulrich Wagner ; Betreuer: Oliver Christ." Hagen : FernUniversität in Hagen, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1203373279/34.
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Rodrigues, Samuel Bellido. "Método híbrido interativo sarima support vector regression wavelet de múltiplos núcleos na previsão de séries temporais de instrumentos de barragens." reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFPR, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1884/41960.
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Orientador : Prof. Dr. Arinei Carlos Lindbeck da SilvaCo-orientador : Prof. Dr. Luiz Albino Teixeira Júnior
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Métodos Numéricos em Engenharia. Defesa: Curitiba, 22/12/2015
Inclui referências : f.82-93
Resumo: Nesta tese de Doutorado é apresentado um novo método preditivo híbrido, formado basicamente pela combinação dos métodos SARIMA, Support Vector Regression e Wavelet, denominado como SARIMA Support Vector Regression Wavelet de Múltiplos Núcleos (SSVRWMN), para a predição de valores de leitura de instrumentos de barragens de concreto de usinas hidroelétricas. Tendo as previsões pontuais, estimase o intervalo de confiança por meio da técnica Bootstrap. O método SSVRWMN Bootstrap contempla as seguintes abordagens: os modelos SARIMA (para mapear estruturas de autodependência lineares sazonais e simples); a decomposição Wavelet integrada com modelos Support Vector Regression (SVRs) (que mapeiam estruturas de autodependência não lineares e da frequência espectral inerente aos dados); a programação não linear (utilizada no ajuste numérico dos parâmetros associados às combinações de previsões) e a técnica Bootstrap aplicada aos resíduos do modelo SSVRWMN com a finalidade de se estimar o intervalo de confiança Bootstrap. O objetivo é produzir previsões para as séries temporais provenientes de instrumentos de barragens, agregadoras de informações estocásticas distintas capturadas por diferentes métodos. A fim de avaliar a eficiência do método preditivo SSVRWMN, este foi aplicado a algumas séries temporais provenientes da aferição de instrumentos situados no bloco-chave I10 da barragem de Itaipu (as quais são utilizadas na análise probabilística de risco de tombamento dos blocos no sentido montante-jusante). O desempenho preditivo alcançado pelo método SSVRWMN, em relação aos métodos preditivos SARIMA, SVR e composto SARIMA-SVR, foi notadamente superior, na presente tese. Palavras-chave: Séries temporais, Instrumentação de barragens, SARIMA, Wavelet, Support Vector Regression, Programação matemática, Técnica Bootstrap.
Abstract: In this doctoral thesis is presented a new hybrid predictive method, formed by the combination of the methods SARIMA, Support Vector Regression and Wavelet referred as: SARIMA Support Vector Regression Wavelet of multiple kernels (SSVRWMN), for the prediction of reading values of concrete dams of hydroelectric plants. With the forecasts, it is estimated the confidence interval by Bootstrap technique. The method SSVRWMN Bootstrap includes the following approaches: SARIMA models (to map linear auto-dependence structures simple and seasonal); Wavelet decomposition integrated with Support Vector Regression models (SVR) (which map non-linear auto-dependence structures and spectral frequency inherent to data); nonlinear programming (used in the numerical adjustment of the parameters associated with combinations of forecasts) and the Bootstrap residual technique applied to residue the model SSVRWMN in order to estimate the Bootstrap confidence interval. The goal is to produce forecasts for the time series from instruments of dams that are aggregators of distinctive stochastic information captured by different methods. In order to evaluate the efficiency of method SSVRWMN predictive , this was applied to some time series from instruments located in block-key I10, of Itaipu Dam (which are used in probabilistic analysis tipover risk of blocks in the downstreamupstream direction). The predictive performance achieved by SSVRWMN concerning the traditional approaches SARIMA, SVR and composed SARIMA-SVR, have been remarkable superior. Keywords: Time series, dam Instrumentation, SARIMA, Wavelet, Support Vector Regression, Mathematical programming, Bootstrap Technique.
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Thomas, Sarina [Verfasser], and Klaus H. [Akademischer Betreuer] Maier-Hein. "Automatic image analysis of C-arm Computed Tomography images for ankle joint surgeries / Sarina Thomas ; Betreuer: Klaus Hermann Maier-Hein." Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg, 2020. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-283769.
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