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Journal articles on the topic 'Scenario management'

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Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 1 February 2022

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Gausemeier, Juergen, Alexander Fink, and Oliver Schlake. "Scenario Management." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 59, no. 2 (1998): 111–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0040-1625(97)00166-2.

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Schlamkow, Christian, Norman Dreier, Peter Fröhle, and Dörte Salecker. "FUTURE EXTREME WAVES AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COAST DERIVED FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RUNS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (2012): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.5.

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Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemünde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%.

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Greene, Robert J. "Scenario-Based Rewards Management." Compensation & Benefits Review 44, no. 3 (2012): 126–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0886368712455858.

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The turbulent environment of the last two decades has made it difficult to manage employee rewards well. When revenues vary while compensation costs remain fixed it impacts profitability in private sector firms and makes it difficult for public sector entities to remain within budgets. Organizations need to use scenario based planning to develop robust rewards strategies that will work reasonably well in a variety of possible futures. Current strategies and programs should be evaluated to ensure they are sustainable. Alternative approaches to rewarding employees that make rewards costs more variable enables them to be better aligned with revenues.

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Sastry, S. V. A. R., and Ch V. Ramachandra Murthy. "Management of E-waste in the Present Scenario." International Journal of Engineering and Technology 4, no. 5 (2012): 543–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/ijet.2012.v4.428.

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Moats, Jason B., Thomas J. Chermack, and Larry M. Dooley. "Using Scenarios to Develop Crisis Managers: Applications of Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training." Advances in Developing Human Resources 10, no. 3 (2008): 397–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1523422308316456.

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Meidiana, Christia. "The Emergy Value Assessment of Municipal Waste Management in Yogyakarta, Indonesia." Applied Mechanics and Materials 493 (January 2014): 461–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.493.461.

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The emergy values of three different scenarios for the new landfill in Yogyakarta City were calculated to evaluate the sustainability and efficiency. The assessment included the environmental parameters which are Environmental Yield Ratio (EYR), Net Emergy, Environmental Loading ratio (ELR) and Emergy Sustainability Index (ESI).The calculation of emergy indices showed that treatment in landfill requires the largest emergy input for all scenarios with the percentage between 92% and 97%. Scenario 0 contains the lowest total solar emergy implying that it requires lower emergy input compared to other scenarios. Scenario 1 needs the lowest emergy investment. Meanwhile, Scenario 2 offers the highest emergy recovery contributed mainly by the output from higher scavenging rate. Scenario 2 is the best option for the municipal waste management in Yogyakarta since it meets more criteria for sustainability and efficiency.

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Mason, David H., and James Herman. "Scenarios and strategies: making the scenario about the business." Strategy & Leadership 31, no. 1 (2003): 23–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10878570310455024.

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Freeman, Oliver, and Hugh M. Pattinson. "Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning." Futures 42, no. 4 (2010): 304–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.016.

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Jhanji, V., N. Sharma, and R. B. Vajpayee. "Management of keratoconus: current scenario." British Journal of Ophthalmology 95, no. 8 (2010): 1044–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjo.2010.185868.

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Jarke, Matthias, X. Tung Bui, and John M. Carroll. "Scenario Management: An Interdisciplinary Approach." Requirements Engineering 3, no. 3-4 (1998): 155–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s007660050002.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "MODEL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES APPLICATION BASED ON DISTRICT SPATIAL PLANNING IN MAMASA WATERSHED, SOUTH SULAWESI." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-272.

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Depletion of watershed carrying capacity cannot be omitted from mismanagement of the watershed. The integration between SWAT model and remote sensing data are able to identify, assess, and evaluate watershed problem as well as a tool to apply the mitigation of the problem. The aim of this study was to arrange the scenario of watershed management, and decide the best recommendation of sustainable watershed management of Mamasa Sub Watershed. The best recommendation was decided by hydrology parameters, e.i. surface runoff, sediment, and runoff coefficient. Hydrology characteristics of Mamasa Sub Watershed was analyzed based on land use data of year 2012 and climate data for period of 2010-2012. The scenarios were application of bunch and mulch in slope 1-15%; bunch terrace (scenario 1), mulch and strip grass in slope 15-25% (scenario 2), alley cropping in slope 25-40% (scenario 3), and combination scenario 1, 2, 3 with agroforestry in slope > 40% (scenario4). Surface runoff value of Mamasa Sub Watershed is 581.35 mm, while lateral flow, groundwater flow, runoff coefficient, and sediment yield of 640.72 mm, 228.17 mm, 0.29, and 187.213 ton/ha respectively. Based on the scenarios simulation, the fourth scenario was able to reduce surface runoff and sediment yield of 33.441% and of 51.213%, while the runoff coefficient declined to 0.194. Thereby, the fourth scenario is recommended to be applied in Mamasa Sub Watershed so that the sustainability in the watershed can be achieved.

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Yusuf, Sri Malahayati. "Model of Soil and Water Conservation Measures Application based on District Spatial Planning in Mamasa Watershed, South Sulawesi." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 4, no. 2 (2017): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.4.2.263-274.

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Amaral, Karina Guedes Cubas do, Miguel Mansur Aisse, and Gustavo Rafael Collere Possetti. "Sustainability assessment of sludge and biogas management in wastewater treatment plants using the LCA technique." Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science 14, no. 5 (2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2371.

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Upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactors (UASBs) used in sewage treatment generate two useful byproducts: sludge and biogas. This study evaluated the sustainability of four different scenarios for the treatment and final destination of biological sludge and biogas in a medium-sized wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in South Brazil. At this plant, the sludge is sanitized by Prolonged Alkaline Stabilization and applied to agriculture (base scenario). Scenario 1 is about biogas use to dry sludge, which is taken to be used in agriculture. In Scenarios 2 and 3 the heat of the sludge burning is used for drying and sanitation. Finally, in Scenario 3 the ashes are destined to landfills. An environmental impact assessment was performed through life-cycle assessment using the ReCiPe 2016 evaluation method. Social life-cycle assessment indicators, adapted and developed for WWTPs, were used for social assessment. Economic assessment was performed through the analysis of life-cycle costs. The dashboard of sustainability (DoS) method was used for global assessment of sustainability. For overall sustainability assessment, Scenario 1 had the highest score (678 points) (best scenario) in the DoS. The environmental dimension was what facilitated this scenario. For this dimension, the following indicators presented the highest points when compared to the other scenarios: soil acidification, ozone formation, terrestrial ecosystem. The base scenario had the lowest score (worst case scenario) (375 points).

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Raymond Hales, MA, Douglas, and Peter Race, MA. "Applying a framework for defining emergency management scenarios." Journal of Emergency Management 9, no. 1 (2011): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2011.0043.

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Introduction: Scenarios are used extensively to support emergency management (EM). Virtually every user within the community, from policymakers to first responders, uses scenarios in one guise or another. They provide the context to characterize a dynamic problem space, to support the rehearsal of response options, and to facilitate the evaluation of new technology. With such far-reaching implications, there needs to be a means to guide scenario selection.Objective: The Canadian Centre for Security Science sponsored the development of a framework to characterize scenarios and to assist in evaluating EM capabilities, explicitly in the area of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear response. The framework also complements capability-based planning and provides a means to share scenarios.Methodology: The Public Safety and Security Planning Scenario Framework assists the EM community, which ranges from the national to the community level, by selecting scenarios based on user perspectives and objectives. In developing the framework, three challenges were addressed: a taxonomy was required to frame and define what constitutes a scenario; parameters were needed to describe and characterize scenarios; and structure was called for to assist in ordering the collection and comparison of representative scenarios.The first challenge involved reviewing existing literature to define the term “scenario.” Typically, scenarios are used to consider near-term threats, to capture planning assumptions, and to provide the perspective necessary to assess concepts and capabilities. The framework proposes a set of criteria or dimensions (eg, risks, triggers, and time horizons) that can be used to characterize scenarios. To test the framework, a representative set of scenarios was cataloged using these dimensions. Analysis of the resulting set was instructive in revealing the differences in planning scenarios across the chemical, biological, radiological/nuclear, and explosive communities. As the framework matures, it is hoped that it will promote information reuse and provide a valuable forum for capturing best practices and developing standards, enhancing efficiency and effectiveness improvements both locally and nationally.

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Fathi, Mohammad Reza, Seyed Mohammad Sobhani, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, and Gholamreza Jandaghi. "Future study of textile industry in Iran using the MICMAC and soft operational research methods." foresight 23, no. 4 (2021): 439–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2020-0017.

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Purpose This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods. Design/methodology/approach In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied. Findings Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment. Originality/value Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

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Arnold, Uwe, Heinrich Söbke, and Maria Reichelt. "SimCity in Infrastructure Management Education." Education Sciences 9, no. 3 (2019): 209. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/educsci9030209.

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Simulation games offer a safe space to experiment with system models and provide learning experiences about interdependencies and thus, are considered to foster the development of a deeper understanding of systems. This article describes the use of SimCity in the university course Infrastructure Management, which has been in continuous operation since 2002. Methodologically, a total of four events were observed. Students’ motivation, the didactic scenario and the perceived learning outcomes were examined with the help of a focus group discussion and questionnaires. The didactic scenario shows characteristics not described in this combination in the literature to date: (1) the moderated open, simultaneous and competitive play in groups, (2) the used regional planning scenario and (3) the long, regular period of application of more than 15 years. The results show that SimCity 4 can still serve as a platform for exciting learning scenarios more than 15 years after its initial release. It could also be shown that the didactic scenario motivates the students and that SimCity also generates gaming fun. Furthermore, it could be argued that a regional scenario can be implemented by simple means and is perceived as motivating by the students. Furthermore, this study indicates that even a technically complex and fast-moving medium such as a computer game can be used in a didactic scenario over a longer period with limited effort. Nevertheless, the challenge of game aging should be actively addressed. Furthermore, the study revealed that game-based learning still faces challenges with being recognized by students as a serious learning activity.

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Nordin, Azlin, Amirul Ikhwan Omar, Megat Usamah Megat Mohamed Amin, and Norsaremah Salleh. "Development of scenario management and requirements tool (SMaRT): towards supporting scenario-based requirements engineering methodology." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.14 (2018): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.14.11157.

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Scenario-based methodology has been applied in analyzing real world experience into representation in software environment. Nonetheless, capturing, documenting and managing scenarios are extremely labor-intensive. Hence, the generic aims of this project are to investigate, explore and analyze requirements management process towards supporting scenario-based requirements approach. Based on our analysis of the existing RE or Requirements Management (RM) tools, most of the tools had less focus or missing some significant RE features to facilitate scenario-based methodology. We analyzed all the relevant features and developed a prototype i.e. Scenario-based Requirements Tool (SMaRT) to demonstrate how scenario-based approach can be implemented to further supports scenario-based RE methodology and covers most of the RE process i.e. elicitation, analysis and negotiation, documentation, validation, and management. SMaRT improves the RE tool features i.e. project and requirements management, document generation and validation function to further supports scenario-based RE methodology and covers most of the RE process i.e. elicitation, analysis, negotiation, documentation, validation, and management.

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Azimi, Ahmad Nadim, Sébastien M. R. Dente, and Seiji Hashimoto. "Analyzing Waste Management System Alternatives for Kabul City, Afghanistan: Considering Social, Environmental, and Economic Aspects." Sustainability 12, no. 23 (2020): 9872. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12239872.

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Our earlier work identified social issues of stakeholders who are highly exposed to poor social performance in the current waste management system (WMS) of Kabul city, Afghanistan. The present work builds on earlier findings to elaborate four alternative scenarios with better social outcomes. For each scenario of the current system, greenhouse gas (GHG) and economic assessments were conducted. Results show that Scenario 2, considering increase waste collection coverage, recycling, unsanitary landfilling, and integration of informal workers, was found as the best alternative. Scenario 3, which added a source-separated system to Scenario 2, was the second-best alternative. These two scenarios address social issues and can reduce GHG emissions, save costs, and provide more jobs than the current system. In contrast, the absence of recycling in Scenario 1, and the conversion of unsanitary landfill into sanitary landfill in scenario 4 result in higher costs and GHG emissions, even though they deal with social issues and generate higher jobs to the existing waste management practice.

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Hearn, Jeff. "Sexualities, organizations and organization sexualities: Future scenarios and the impact of socio-technologies (a transnational perspective from the global ‘north’)." Organization 21, no. 3 (2014): 400–420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1350508413519764.

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The article opens by briefly reviewing studies of sexuality in and around organizations from the 1970s. These studies showed considerable theoretical, empirical and conceptual development, as in the concept of organization sexuality. Building on this, the article’s first task is to analyse alternative future scenarios for organization sexualities, by way of changing intersections of gender, sexuality and organizational forms. Possible gendered future scenarios are outlined based on, first, gender equality/inequality and, second, gender similarity/difference between women, men and further genders: hyper-patriarchy scenario—men and women becoming more divergent; with greater inequality; late capitalist gender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater inequality; bi-polar scenario—men and women becoming more divergent, with greater equality; postgender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater equality. Somewhat similar scenarios for organization sexualities are elaborated in terms of gender/sexual equality and inequality and sexual/gender similarity and difference: heteropatriarchies scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender inequality; late capitalist sexual scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or gender/sexual inequality; sexual differentiation scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality; sexual blurring scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality. The article’s second task is to addresses the impact of globalizations and transnationalizations, specifically information and communication technologies and other socio-technologies, for future scenarios of organization sexualities. The characteristic affordances of ICTs—technological control, virtual reproducibility, conditional communality, unfinished undecidability—are mapped onto the four scenarios above and the implications outlined.

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Jafari, Hamid, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam, and Salime Goharinezhad. "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review." foresight 21, no. 3 (2019): 409–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0099.

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Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.

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MacLean, David A., Peter Etheridge, Joe Pelham, and Walter Emrich. "Fundy Model Forest: Partners in sustainable forest management." Forestry Chronicle 75, no. 2 (1999): 219–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc75219-2.

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Scenario planning was used to develop a consensus-based, multi-stakeholder management planning process for a 114 000 ha land base in New Brunswick, Canada. This is part of the Fundy Model Forest, which involves four major landowner groups, along with 26 other Partnership organizations. Public consultation and Partnership input were used to define 25 scenarios, determining effects of alternative means of riparian strip management, road construction, vegetation and insect control, harvesting, maintenance of biodiversity, and plantation establishment. The Woodstock forest modelling software was used to determine effects of each scenario on timber supply, forest structure, measures of biodiversity and ecological integrity, areas of mature forest, and wildlife habitat. In a series of workshops, the Partners were successful in reaching consensus on a Fundy Model Forest "preferred" management scenario, which was conveyed to the land managers for implementation. Development of the management planning process and the use of scenario planning procedures in the Fundy Model Forest are described. Key words: scenario planning, sustainable forest management, Fundy Model Forest, timber supply, biodiversity

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Vienne, Françoise, Harald Bugmann, Andreas Zingg, and Monika Frehner. "Simulation de la structure optimale des hêtraies de protection contre les chutes de pierres | Simulation of the optimal structure of beech forests protecting against rockfall." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 159, no. 11 (2008): 396–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2008.0396.

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Adequate management practices to attain the profiles specified in the Swiss guidelines for the management of mountain protection forests are not always unequivocally clear. This applies among others for beech forests that have a protective function against rockfall. We defined two management scenarios, one of which aims at harvesting trees starting with a minimum diameter at breast height of 40 cm, whereas the other one is focused on the creation of small gaps (area of 500 m2) over a maximum of 10% of the total stand area. These scenarios along with a control scenario characterized by no management were studied using the forest growth model BWINPro. In the control scenario, number of trees, basal area and standing volume were highest. The developments simulated under the two management scenarios were similar, when in scenario thinning harvesting levels corresponded to the growth over a 10-year period. In the other cases, number of trees, basal area and standing volume are lower under scenario gap because harvesting interventions occur more regularly. If the rocks have a volume exceeding 0.2 m3, the requirements of the profiles are attained more quickly under scenario gap, because in scenario thinning the larger trees are preferentially harvested. Because tree regeneration was not simulated, it is difficult to realistically predict the development of the number of trees. However, management interventions are needed in such forests, particularly if the profile for rocks with a volume below 0.2 m3 is to be attained and maintained.

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Stadelmann, Golo, Anne Herold, Markus Didion, Beatriz Vidondo, Andres Gomez, and Esther Thürig. "Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: Simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 167, no. 3 (2016): 152–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2016.0152.

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Timber-harvesting potential of Swiss forests: simulation of management scenarios Growing stock in Swiss forests has, during the past 10 years, increased by 3% overall, with large regional variation. The increase in Alpine regions has been considerable, while growing stock has decreased on the Plateau. We simulated 5 different 100-year management scenarios with the forest development model Massimo. In the base scenario “constant growing stock”, 7.7 million m3 of merchantable timber could be harvesting annually. In the scenario “increasing growing stock”, the harvesting potential was lower (6.3 million m3), but it was higher in the scenarios “continually high increment” (7.8 million m3), “high demand for coniferous timber“ (8.5 million m3) and “high demand for wood fuel or chemical timber” (8.1 million m3). With time, timber-harvesting costs increase for all scenarios, with the least increase for the base scenario. If the prevailing management system continues (scenario “increasing growing stock”), stands will become denser and growing stock increase, with the risk of more disturbances, e.g. wind, snow-breakage, or bark beetles. In the Plateau, however, the regional overuse of recent decades could limit the overall timber-harvesting potential. In Alpine regions, stabilizing growing stock (scenario “constant growing stock”) could improve the resistance of forests, but the harvesting costs per cubic meter might be higher. These management scenarios provide decision makers with indications of how particular forest management strategies could affect the development of growing stock, harvesting amounts and costs.

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Hassanjabbar, Amin, Bahram Saghafian, and Saeed Jamali. "Multi-reservoir system management under alternative policies and environmental operating conditions." Hydrology Research 49, no. 6 (2018): 1817–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2018.150.

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Abstract In this paper, alternative reservoir operation models under different environmental operating conditions were developed to analyze the impacts of applying different policies in a multi-reservoir system in order to balance human and environmental requirements. Three scenarios/models were developed under four sub-scenarios/operating conditions. The scenarios were: (1) an optimization model to maximize the hydropower production, (2) an optimization model to minimize the squared of the difference between the release and need, (3) a simulation model under the Hydropower Standard Operating Policy. The sub-scenarios were developed as follows: (i) no environmental flow, (ii) minimum environmental flow, (iii) environmental flow bounded by the minimum and maximum flow, and (iv) maximum environmental flow. Hydropower production and system performance criteria were calculated and compared in all cases. Moreover, the Range of Variability Approach was used to assess the hydrological alterations of each of the 12 cases. The results in a two reservoir cascade of Seimare-Karkheh, located within the Karkheh River Basin in Iran, showed that sub-scenario 3 performed best in all three scenarios. Further comparison indicated that scenario 1, under sub-scenario 3, was a good compromise solution, as it provided adequate hydropower production and performance criteria and the least hydrological alterations.

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Mohsen, Riham A., Bassim Abbassi, Animesh Dutta, and David Gordon. "Carbon Footprint of Municipal Solid Waste Management in Guelph City, Ontario." Journal of Solid Waste Technology and Management 45, no. 4 (2019): 441–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5276/jswtm/2019.441.

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More light is being shed continually on the environmental impacts of municipal solid waste due to the increasing amounts of waste generated and the related greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from MSW account for 20% of Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and accordingly, waste legislation in Ontario demands high waste recovery and a moving towards a circular economy. This study evaluates the current municipal solid waste management in the City of Guelph and assesses possible alternative scenarios based on the associated GHG emissions. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) that was developed by the US-EPA has been used to quantify the GHG emissions produced over the entire life cycle of the MSW management scenario. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the influence of some scenarios on the overall GHG emissions. It has been found that one ton of landfilled waste generates approximately 0.39 ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2Eq). It was also found that the current solid waste scenario has a saving of 36086 million ton of CO2Eq (MCO2Eq). However, the results showed that the scenario with enhanced waste-to-energy, reduction at source and recycling has resulted in a high avoided emissions (0.74 kg CO2Eq/kg MSW). The anaerobic Digestion scenario caused the lowest avoided emissions of 0.39 kg CO2Eq/kg MSW. The net avoided emissions for reduction at source scenario were found to be the same as that found by the current scenario (0.4 kg CO2Eq/kg MSW). The sensitivity analysis of both reduction at source and recycling rates show a linear inverse proportional relationship with total GHG emissions reduction.

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Jones, T. Mary, and K. Prasantha Kiran. "Conflict Management in the Present Scenario." IRA-International Journal of Management & Social Sciences (ISSN 2455-2267) 6, no. 1 (2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.21013/jmss.v6.n1.p1.

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<div><p><em>Conflict is a very common word in our daily life. There is no place where there are no conflicts. We not only have conflicts with other people we even have conflicts with ourselves. So a quite common phenomenon which if not dealt properly will result in the downfall of oneself, group, organization or a whole nation. The organizational productivity will be affected as conflicts result in reduction of individual productivity. The employees are facing problem in dealing with the day to day conflicts. Thus the conflict management is a much discussed topic in the present scenario. The organizations should develop the strategies like appointing arbitragers, establishing communication channels etc. </em></p></div>

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Hoogendoorn, S. P., H. Schuurman, and B. De Schutter. "Real-Time Traffic Management Scenario Evaluation." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 36, no. 14 (2003): 305–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)32437-0.

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Desouza, K. C. "Scenario management from reactivity to proactivity." IT Professional 7, no. 5 (2005): 42–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mitp.2005.123.

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Hahn, Min Hee, Kun Chang Lee, and Nam Yong Jo. "Scenario-based management of individual creativity." Computers in Human Behavior 42 (January 2015): 36–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2013.07.058.

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Yasuda, Tomohiro, Hajime Mase, Shoji Kunitomi, Nobuhito Mori, and Yuta Hayashi. "STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO FUTURE TYPHOON PROJECTION." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 32 (2011): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.16.

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This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.

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Ionescu, Gabriela, and Cora Bulmău. "Biomass conversion into valuable products within the integrated management of bio-resources." E3S Web of Conferences 85 (2019): 07008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20198507008.

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The present research proposes two scenarios for the biomass conversion into valuable products within the integrated management of bio-resources. The scenarios have been developed considering: the biomass availability, material and by-products characteristics and the comprehensive combination of the primary technologies used for the conversion of the biomass mixtures into energy. In scenario 1 the biomass waste valorisation is made via integrated pyrolysis and combustion treatment, while in scenario 2 the biomass conversion in done considering the integration of the pyrolysis, gasification and combustion treatments into the conversion chain. The results revealed that all analysed scenarios purposed are self-independent from the energetic point of view.

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Etheridge, David A., and Gordon J. Kayahara. "Challenges and implications of incorporating multi-cohort management in northeastern Ontario, Canada: A case study." Forestry Chronicle 89, no. 03 (2013): 315–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc2013-062.

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In northeastern Ontario, the natural fire cycle is long, resulting in large areas of forest in an uneven-aged condition. Under Ontario forest legislation requiring emulation of natural disturbance regimes, extended rotations and multi-cohort management present options that may meet landscape targets. We used a forest management wood supply model to compare scenarios of current even-aged management, extended rotations, and multi-cohort management (adds partial harvesting). Because science-based information to incorporate late successional forest stages into wood supply modeling is lacking in boreal Ontario, we adjusted the current even-aged inputs to account for mid- and late-seral conditions. Based primarily on expert opinion, adjustments were made to the Forest Resources Inventory age, yield curves, and succession rules; and partial harvesting was added. For modeling, we specified three broad succession groupings (even-aged, two- to three-aged, and all-aged) and established targets of 50%, 25% and 25% of the landscape area, respectively. The current even-aged scenario met even-aged targets but not multi-aged targets. Extended rotations and multi-cohort management scenarios met all the succession grouping targets over the long term. Wood supply was highest for the even-aged scenario, slightly lower for multi-cohort management scenario, and much lower for the extended rotations scenario. Road usage and relative cost was highest for the extendedrotations scenario and lowest for the even-aged scenario. Multi-cohort management may represent a compromise between maximizing harvest levels using even-aged management and retaining mid- and late-succession habitat structures.

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Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín, Marta Gómez, Vicente Gracia, Xavi Gironella, and Manuel García-Leon. "RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BEACHES AS DEFENSES AGAINST STORM IMPACTS UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 34 (2014): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.12.

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H. El Saeed, Gamal, Neveen B. Abdelmageed, Peter Riad, and M. Komy. "Ensuring sustainable development through groundwater management, area one, south western desert, Egypt." Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 17, no. 3 (2020): 1584. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v17.i3.pp1584-1593.

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<p>Darb El-Arbeain area lies between long. 29o 00/ and 31o 00/ E and lat. 22o 00/ and 24o 30/ N. It is divided into three separate areas; The northern part extends 90 km to the south from Paris town and has an area of 90 km2. In this study four suggested scenarios of pumping rates have been explored to fit with the Egyptian ministry of irrigation using the three dimensional finite difference flow model (MODFLOW) to simulate the flow system. These scenarios include: first, model will run with abstraction from the aquifers equal 110 %, 180%, 280%, and 370% of calculated initial recharge. Results indicate that the second scenario has the most economic scenario on the area. The fourth scenario caused the highest increase of drawdown values which should be avoided<em>.</em></p>

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Kaufmann, Edgar. "Nachhaltiges Holzproduktionspotenzial im Schweizer Wald." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 162, no. 9 (2011): 300–311. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2011.0300.

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Potential of sustainable wood production in Swiss forests In the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI), the data collected in the three inventories (NFI1 1983–1985, NFI2 1993–1995, NFI3 2004–2006) provide the basis not only for analysing the present state of the forest and how it has developed up to now, but also for assessing, with the help of models, how it might develop in future. The scenario model «Massimo 3», developed at the Swiss Federal Institut for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, is an empirical and stochastic simulation model. It relies on data from the NFI and forecasts the development of the forest according to how it is managed. Six scenarios with different management regimes were defined according to the economic, silvicultural and ecological aspects considered. In three scenarios the growing stock is kept constant at the level of NFI3, but different management strategies are used (Scenario A: basis [business as usual], Scenario E: even-aged forests are transformed into uneven-aged forests, and Scenario F: near-natural percentages of conifers are promoted). In two scenarios forest management is partially abandoned for either ecological reasons (Scenario B: reservations, 10% of the forest area is left unmanaged) or for economic reasons (Scenario C: harvesting costs, 40% of the forest area is left unmanaged). Scenario D (rotation periods are shortened) was used to study the effects of augmenting the annual harvesting amount. A forecasting time period of 100 years was selected to assess the long-term effects of the scenarios. Scenarios A, D, and E show that the sustainable harvesting potential of merchantable wood lies in a relatively narrow range of 7.1 to 7.3 million m3/year, even though in Scenario D the growing stock is reduced from 360 m3/ha to 305 m3/ha. In Scenario F regeneration is systematically established with near-natural percentages of conifers, the long-term harvesting potential is slightly less: about 6.5 million m3/year of merchantable wood. If forest management is abandoned for economic reasons on as much as 40% of the forest area (Scenario C, harvesting costs), the impact on the wood reserves is very negative.

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van Doorn, Jozef W. M. "Scenario writing." Tourism Management 7, no. 1 (1986): 33–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-5177(86)90055-5.

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Isharyati, Ade Widya, Agus Prasetya, and Rochim Bakti Cahyono. "Optimization of operational techniques in waste management case study: Lhokseumawe City." E3S Web of Conferences 76 (2019): 03007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20197603007.

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The high volume of waste that is not followed by properly waste management method, makes the waste management in Lhokseumawe not optimal. This problem is shown by the level of waste service is only about 38 %, while the waste that is not transported will be cumulative in any places. This is showed that the level of waste service is below of the minimum service standard that is 60 %–90 %. It is necessary to improve the waste management, especially in the utilization of waste to reduce the waste and landfill load. This research aims to evaluated and analysis of waste management in Lhokseumawe by two waste reduction scenarios, that are waste bank scenario and recycle scenario. The method that were used in this research are material balance analysis, lifetime of landfill, and cost analysis. The result showed that waste reduction by scenario 1 and scenario 2 can reduce of waste in landfill about 49.8 % and 51.02 %. The lifetime of landfill by the waste reduction can be used for 28 years from the lifetime 18 years. Investment cost estimated that required in scenario 1 and scenario 2 are smaller than the investment cost of existing, respectively IDR746,646,860, IDR755,530,822 and IDR1,202,644,444.

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Luo, Lei. "Approach to the Management of Warfare Simulation Scenarios Based on Ontology and CBR." Advanced Materials Research 1049-1050 (October 2014): 2105–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1049-1050.2105.

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Warfare simulation scenarios will play a vital role in helping commanders to make decisions, nowadays. However, one warfare simulation scenario usually includes lots of various information with complicated relations and is not so easy to form. Thus, this paper focuses on the presentation of a basic framework of the storage of warfare simulation scenarios, and also the improvement of management capability of them based on the methods of ontology and CBR. Through researching the process of joint air defense warfare, the paper constructed the warfare scenario ontology in that domain based on the method of first-order logic and, in the following, has given the proof of its consistency and completeness. Meanwhile, the paper has also illustrated one case using one feature set and carry out case retrieval based on this expression, which has improved the effectiveness of scenario management.

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Kumar, Amit, and Dr Amit Sisodia. "Study and analysis of working capital management in current business scenario." International Journal of Scientific Research 1, no. 6 (2012): 114–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.15373/22778179/nov2012/44.

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Kaur, Dr Ravneet. "Diabetes Self-Management Education Programs: Current Scenario and Relevance in India." Epidemiology International 2, no. 2 (2017): 4–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.24321/2455.7048.201709.

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Salman, Nurcholis. "OPERATIONAL OF SOLID WASTE HANDLING IN SUBANG DISTRICT." Volume 5 No. 2 September 2021 5, no. 2 (2021): 91–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.23969/jcbeem.v5i2.4470.

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The operational technique of waste management in Subang Regency uses simulations in the form of three scenarios, namely scenario-1 is a scenario that has been running so far (existing), in which recycling activities have not yet developed, so it is practically only a collection-transport-disposal system. a better scenario than Scenario-1, in which there are already recycling activities in the TPA, both in the formal and informal sectors (scavenging) and Based on the projections for each scenario above, it is found that Scenario-3 is a moderate scenario, because: the volume of waste transportation to the landfill is the minimum, the volume of waste that must be removed to the landfill is also the minimum which automatically has the minimum volume of landfill among the 3 (three) proposed scenarios. This scenario makes the transportation system efficient, but requires a larger investment to facilitate facilities and infrastructure. However, this is not the case in Scenario-1, in this scenario, the budget required for the procurement of facilities and infrastructure is relatively lighter than the needs in the other two scenarios.

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Carlsen, Henrik, E. Anders Eriksson, Karl Henrik Dreborg, Bengt Johansson, and Örjan Bodin. "Systematic exploration of scenario spaces." Foresight 18, no. 1 (2016): 59–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2015-0011.

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Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

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Bonham, John G., Darrell J. Bosch, and James W. Pease. "Cost-Effectiveness of Nutrient Management and Buffers: Comparisons of Two Spatial Scenarios." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 38, no. 1 (2006): 17–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800022045.

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Farmers and taxpayers would benefit from more cost-effective agricultural nutrient pollution control measures. The objectives of our study are (1) to assess compliance costs and reductions in phosphorus loadings from implementation of nutrient management and riparian buffers; and (2) to estimate how the spatial scenario, which is the method of representing farms within the watershed, affects estimated compliance costs and reductions in phosphorus deliveries. Estimated compliance costs are quite sensitive to the spatial scenario. Buffers are more cost-effective than nutrient management under one of the two spatial scenarios, whereas nutrient management is more cost-effective under the other scenario. Shifts to more erosive crops reduce the effectiveness of both pollution control measures.

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Tsuzuki, Yoshiaki, Thammarat Koottatep, Thitiphon Sinsupan, et al. "A concept for planning and management of on-site and centralised municipal wastewater treatment systems, a case study in Bangkok, Thailand. II: Scenario-based pollutant load analysis." Water Science and Technology 67, no. 9 (2013): 1934–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2013.024.

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Scenario-based pollutant load analysis was conducted to develop a part of a concept for planning and management of wastewater treatment systems (WWTSs) under the mixture conditions of centralised and on-site WWTSs. Pollutant discharge indicators and pollutant removal efficiency functions were applied from another paper in the series, which were developed based on the existing conditions in urban and peri-urban areas of Bangkok, Thailand. Two scenarios were developed to describe development directions of the mixture conditions. Scenario 1 involves keeping the on-site wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) within the areas of centralised WWTSs. Scenario 2 is dividing the centralised and on-site WWTS areas. Comparison of the smallest values of total pollutant discharge per capita (PDCtotal) between Scenarios 1 and 2 showed that the smallest PDCtotal in Scenario 1 was smaller than that in Scenario 2 for biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus whereas the smallest PDCtotal in Scenario 2 was smaller than that in Scenario 1 for total nitrogen, total coliforms and faecal coliforms. The results suggest that the mixture conditions could be a possible reason for smaller pollutant concentrations at centralised WWTPs. Quantitative scenario-based estimation of PDCtotal is useful and a prerequisite in planning and management of WWTSs.

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Sano, Marcello, Scott Baum, Marcus Bussey, et al. "ADAPTING COASTS TO CLIMATIC FUTURES. AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (2012): 21. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.21.

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In coastal management under climatic pressures, the final aim of vulnerability assessments, system thinking or scenario planning exercises is to inform the identification of the most appropriate adaptation options for communities under risk of coastal hazards and climate change. In this paper we show how we combined these techniques for coastal settlements adaptation in South East Queensland, one of the most populated Australian regions, including: (i) the use of suburb-level mapping and numerical modelling to identify and assess vulnerability hotspots (ii) the development and testing of systems thinking and bayesian modelling techniques to explore adaptation pathways and the adaptive capacity of coastal communities and (iii) the use of scenario planning techniques to test adaptation options in an uncertain future. We show how these outcomes were used to develop a range of research-based adaptation policies, programs and actions and to inform the preparation of practical guidance for councils across Queensland.

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Sadoon, Ayad Naeem, Ali H. Kadhum, and Amjad Barzan Abdulghafour. "Development of Solid Waste Management Plan to Solve the Transport Routes Problem in Baghdad City." Al-Nahrain Journal for Engineering Sciences 23, no. 2 (2020): 159–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.29194/njes.23020159.

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The transportation cost problem of solid waste presents the biggest part of the budget allocated by municipalities for SWM. So, there is no comprehensive plan to address transport routes optimization problems in SWM that including the transfer of solid waste from transfer stations to final landfill sites. Therefore, the aim of the study finding a scientific method to solve the transportation problem of solid waste transport suitable Baghdad city that tries to find feasible solutions that ensure reducing total transport costs and leads to an effective solid waste management system. In this research, a new methodology has been developed to select the optimal transport routs of SWM in Baghdad city which involves determining the best-supposed scenario. the proposed methodology includes integration of Global Positioning System (GPS) technologies with Network Analysis model (NA). Therefore, this work provides an advanced framework of decision-makers for analysis and simulation of the optimal transport routs problem related to SWM. Applying these modeling tools to select the scenario that can provide economic benefits by minimizing travel time, travel distance and reduction of total transportation costs. The Results of work implementation show that all solutions that include current state S1 and suggested scenarios have been evaluated. The scenarios generated include (S2, S3) by applying the proposed technique for analyzed and identified the optimal routes. The solutions of scenario S2, specified with two landfill sites while scenarios S3 specified with four landfill sites. Finally, this work shows the Scenario S3 is the best scenario of the solution, that include applied GPS and Network Analysis for four landfill sites.

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Von Storch, Hans, Frauke Feser, and Monika Barcikowska. "DOWNSCALING TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM GLOBAL RE-ANALYSIS AND SCENARIOS: STATISTICS OF MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY OF TC ACTIVITY IN E ASIA." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 32 (2011): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.17.

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An atmospheric regional climate model was employed for describing weather of E Asia for the last decades as well as for the coming century. Re-analyses provided by Global National Center for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) for the past six decades, as well a scenario generated by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model were dynamically downscaled to a 50 km grid using a state-of-the-art regional climate model (CCLM). Using an automated tracking system, all tropical cyclones (TCs) are identified in the multi-decadal simulations. The different analysis products of TC-statistics were found to differ strongly, also in recent times when the data base was good, so that in the long-term statistics 1950-2010 inhomogeneities mask real climatic variations. The 1948-2009 time series of the annual numbers of TCs in the NCEP-driven simulation and in the JMA best track data (BT) correlate favourably. The number is almost constant, even if there is a slight tendency in BT to show less storms, whereas CCLM shows somewhat more storms, which became more intense. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM-driven scenario simulation, subject to 1959-2100 observed and projected greenhouse gas concentrations, shows a reduction of the number of storms, which maintains a stationary intensity in terms of maximum sustained winds and minimum pressure. Thus, BT-trends and downscaled trends were found to be inconsistent, but also the downscaled trends 1948-2009 and the trends derived from the A1B-scenario were different.

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Lee, Young Sun, Kyu Nam Kim, Min Kyu Lee, Jung Eun Sun, Hyun Jin Lim, and Jong Hun Jun. "Comparing hemostatic resuscitation management of intraoperative massive bleeding with traumatic massive bleeding: a computer simulation." Anesthesia and Pain Medicine 15, no. 4 (2020): 459–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.17085/apm.20042.

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Background: Appropriate blood component transfusion might differ between intraoperative massive bleeding and traumatic massive bleeding in the emergency department because trauma patients initially bleed undiluted blood and replacement typically lags behind blood loss. We compared these two blood loss scenarios, intraoperative and traumatic, using a computer simulation.Methods: We modified the multi-compartment dynamic model developed by Hirshberg and implemented it using STELLA 9.0. In this model, blood pressure changes as blood volume fluctuates as bleeding rate and transcapillary refill rate are controlled by blood pressure. Using this simulation, we compared the intraoperative bleeding scenario with the traumatic bleeding scenario. In both scenarios, patients started to bleed at a rate of 50 ml/min. In the intraoperative bleeding scenario, fluid was administered to maintain isovolemic status; however, in the traumatic bleeding scenario, no fluid was supplied for up to 30 min and no blood was supplied for up to 50 min. Each unit of packed red blood cells (PRBC) was given when the hematocrit decreased to 27%, fresh frozen plasma (FFP) was transfused when plasma was diluted to 30%, and platelet concentrate (PC) was transfused when platelet count became 50,000/ml.Results: In both scenarios, the appropriate ratio of PRBC:FFP was 1:0.47 before PC transfusion, and the ratio of PRBC:FFP:platelets was 1:0.35:0.39 after initiation of PC transfusion.Conclusion: The ratio of transfused blood component did not differ between the intraoperative bleeding and traumatic bleeding scenarios.

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Banaś, Jan, Stanisław Zięba, Małgorzata Bujoczek, and Leszek Bujoczek. "The Impact of Different Management Scenarios on the Availability of Potential Forest Habitats for Wildlife on a Landscape Level: The Case of the Black Stork Ciconia nigra (Linnaeus, 1758)." Forests 10, no. 5 (2019): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10050362.

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This study analyzed the effects of various forest management scenarios on habitats of the black stork, which has very specific requirements: it needs extensive forest complexes with a significant proportion of old trees for nesting, and bodies of water for foraging. The relationship between different forest management scenarios and the presence of black storks was examined in a large forest complex (9641 ha of managed stands) surrounded by wetland areas. A simulation of forest development under three management regimes was performed for eighteen 10-year periods. Management scenarios differed in terms of the species composition of stands, rotation age, retention tree areas, and silvicultural treatments. The basic scenario was characterized by a species composition consistent with natural-type stands, but with higher proportions of Scots pine and oak, with rotation ages of 100 and 140 years, respectively, managed by the shelterwood system. The productive scenario featured monospecific stands with a dominance of Scots pine with a rotation age of 90 years, harvested by clearcutting. Finally, the long rotation scenario introduced mixed tree stands with a long rotation age (110 and 180 years for Scots pine and oak, respectively). As compared to the basic scenario, the total harvest volume was greater by 14.6% in the productive scenario and smaller by 16.2% in the long rotation scenario. The availability of habitats for black stork changed as a result of different species compositions and age structures of tree stands. A considerable decrease in rotation age (below 100 years) and the elimination of oak trees from stands in the productive scenario adversely affected potential habitats for black stork. On the other hand, the factors favorable to black stork habitats were a long rotation age, the presence of oak in stands, the application of shelterwood cutting, and the use of retention trees in the long rotation scenario. This scenario would probably also benefit other bird species legally protected under the European Union’s Birds Directive.

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Alisyukur, La Ode, Sunarto Sunarto, and Muh Aris Marfai. "SKENARIO PENGELOLAAN KEPESISIRAN BERKELANJUTAN KABUPATEN BUTON SELATAN, PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA." ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) 14, no. 2 (2020): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejes.2020.v14.i02.p01.

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The coastal zone of South Buton Regency consists of unique ecosystems and abundant natural resources, but facing problems, mainly in terms of conflict between economic needs and ecological aspects. This study aims to set up scenarios for sustainable coastal zone management (SCZM) in South Buton Regency that are synergistic and benefit all stakeholders, without disregarding the principals of ecological conservation. Data were collected by interviews and field observations and were analyzed using prospective analysis method. Comprehensive analyisis were performed encompassing the effects and interactions of key components of the successfulness of the SCZM in South Buton based on the stakeholders desires. Three environmental management scenarios were assessed, namely: the conservative-pessimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are at minimum levels, the moderate-optimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are about 50%, and the progressive-optimistic scenario, in which all the key components are addressed for refinements. Results of the prospective analysis show that the moderate-optimistic scenario was the most appropriate scheme to be implemented for the sustainable coastal zone management in South Buton Regency, follows by progressive-optimistic and conservative-pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Keywords: Coastal zone; Key components; Prospective analysis; Environmental management

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