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SHIOTA, Eiji, and Atsushi OHNISHI. "Scenario Retrieval Method Using Differential Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E99.D, no. 9 (2016): 2202–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.2015kbp0001.
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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.
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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.
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Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).
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OHNISHI, Atsushi, and Koji KITAMOTO. "A Generation Method of Alternative Scenarios with a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E93-D, no. 4 (2010): 693–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.e93.d.693.
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OHNISHI, A. "A Generation Method of Exceptional Scenarios from a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E91-D, no. 4 (2008): 881–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e91-d.4.881.
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Liu, Tianyue, Cong Wang, Ziqiao Yin, Zhilong Mi, Xiya Xiong, and Binghui Guo. "Complexity Quantification of Driving Scenarios with Dynamic Evolution Characteristics." Entropy 26, no. 12 (2024): 1033. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e26121033.
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Complexity is a key measure of driving scenario significance for scenario-based autonomous driving tests. However, current methods for quantifying scenario complexity primarily focus on static scenes rather than dynamic scenarios and fail to represent the dynamic evolution of scenarios. Autonomous vehicle performance may vary significantly across scenarios with different dynamic changes. This paper proposes the Dynamic Scenario Complexity Quantification (DSCQ) method for autonomous driving, which integrates the effects of the environment, road conditions, and dynamic entities in traffic on complexity. Additionally, it introduces Dynamic Effect Entropy to measure uncertainty arising from scenario evolution. Using the real-world DENSE dataset, we demonstrate that the proposed method more accurately quantifies real scenario complexity with dynamic evolution. Although certain scenes may appear less complex, their significant dynamic changes over time are captured by our proposed method but overlooked by conventional approaches. The correlation between scenario complexity and object detection algorithm performance further proves the effectiveness of the method. DSCQ quantifies driving scenario complexity across both spatial and temporal scales, filling the gap of existing methods that only consider spatial complexity. This approach shows the potential to enhance AV safety testing efficiency in varied and evolving scenarios.
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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, and Anna Kononiuk. "THE CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION IN THE POLISH FORESIGHT INITIATIVES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 19, no. 3 (2013): 510–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.809030.
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The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.
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Jansen van Vuuren, David. "Valuing specialised property: cost vs profits method uncertainty." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 6 (2016): 655–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2016-0048.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the value outcomes of the cost approach to the DCF profits method when valuing specialised property under different scenarios as a test for choice of method or model uncertainty; and to quantify valuation uncertainty under each scenario and to argue for an increasing adoption of the profits method of valuation. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative case study approach was used to analyse four physical valuations performed in practice under four specific scenarios, namely, a business-as-usual scenario, an underperforming business scenario, an expanding capacity scenario and a combined business-as-usual funding a start-up joint venture scenario. Findings The cost approach relative to the DCF profits approach consistently under-values specialised property under business-as-usual and business expanding scenarios while it over-values in instances of underperforming business scenario. Practical implications Financial institutions that predominantly uses or accepts the cost approach for valuing specialised property should consider adopting the DCF profits approach as the default approach when valuing for mortgage lending purposes. Business owners of specialised properties should contract practitioners knowledgeable and skilled in the application of the DCF profits method. Originality/value This paper quantifies choice of method or model uncertainty of four different scenarios of specialised properties where both the cost approach and DCF profits methods of valuation were employed. It suggests the adoption of the DCF profits method as the default method of valuation for specialised property.
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Huang, Xinghua, Gonglin Zhang, Yuanliang Fan, et al. "Distribution Network Optimization Dispatch Method Based on Renewable Energy Scenario Reduction." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2661, no. 1 (2023): 012020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2661/1/012020.
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Abstract The scenario analysis method is an important method to adapt to the optimal dispatch of power systems with a high percentage of new energy sources. As a hot research topic in scenario analysis methods, the significance of scenario reduction is to describe many complex scenarios that feature a small number of representative scenarios to achieve the purpose of reducing computational complexity. In this paper, a distribution network optimization dispatch method based on the hierarchical clustering algorithm for scenario reduction is proposed considering wind power output and photovoltaic output. Firstly, the original scenes are quickly categorized because of the hierarchical clustering algorithm to derive typical scenarios. Secondly, an optimal dispatch model of the distribution network containing renewable energy is established. Finally, the arithmetic example is verified by using the IEEE33 distribution network, and the experimental results validate the validity and superiority of the proposed scenario reduction method.
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Svatošová, Veronika, and Josef Smolík. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 63, no. 5 (2015): 1749–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563051749.
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The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.
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Wang, Xiao Wei, Jian Feng Li, Jian Zhi Li, and Rui Jun Zhang. "A New LCA Method Based on Multi-Scenarios Coexistence." Advanced Materials Research 139-141 (October 2010): 1442–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.139-141.1442.
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Because of the simplification for scenario choices and few reflections of space-time characters, product designers or police makers can’t reference effectively the results of LCA. This paper proposed a new LCA method for design scheme based on multi-scenarios coexistence. First, various life-cycle scenarios of product are summarized and the common attributes are extracted to generate the scenario model. Second, the choice matrix of multi-scenarios is founded based on product statistic. And the probabilities of scenarios calculated from the choice matrix are used to gather together the environmental impacts of multi-scenarios in proportion. Third, the inventory data are collected as per scenario including pollution emissions and character information. The later are used to generate personnel, spatial and temporal factors which reflect the diversity of environmental impacts in different scenarios. Finally, the related issues are discussed including matters needing attention in practical application and what need to research in future.
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Fergnani, Alessandro. "The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life." foresight 21, no. 4 (2019): 445–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2018-0086.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.
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Cui, Tonghui, Minfang Han, and Meng Ni. "Load Regulation Strategies of Solid Oxide Electrolysis System Coupled with External Heat Sources." ECS Transactions 111, no. 6 (2023): 1877–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1149/11106.1877ecst.
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Solid oxide electrolysis system requires electrical and thermal energy. Five scenarios are defined according to various cases of external heat sources coupling and electrical energy sources. Three methods are proposed to track variations in electrical or thermal load, including constant flow rate (F method), constant steam utilization (Us method) and constant cell operating voltage (V method). Through system process simulation, the applicability of three methods in different scenarios is explored to obtain load regulation strategies. In the scenario coupled with low-temperature heat and intermittent power and the scenario with no heat coupling, the F method is preferred at high loads and the V method is preferred at low loads, while it is the opposite in the scenario coupled with high-temperature heat and intermittent power. The V method is preferred at low loads in the scenario coupled with low-temperature heat and high loads in the scenario coupled with high-temperature heat.
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Stojanovic, Milica, Petar Mitkovic, and Mihailo Mitkovic. "The scenario method in urban planning." Facta universitatis - series: Architecture and Civil Engineering 12, no. 1 (2014): 81–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fuace1401081s.
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Scenario planning techniques are increasingly gaining attention in the process of spatial and urban planning because of their usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning encourages strategic thinking and helps to overcome thinking limitations by creating multiple futures. In this way, it can help to shape the future according to the values and desires of society. Although scenario planning has been used a lot in the business world, there are scarce examples of its application in the field of urban planning. One of the reasons for this is the huge variety of methods and tools with no general guidelines for the implementation of the appropriate procedure and techniques for constructing scenarios in urban planning. Although each exercise of scenario planning must be unique in its context and actors, the methodological approach may be similar. For this reason, the main goal of this paper is to systematize the known methods for scenario construction, emphasize the featured techniques and tools, and consider the possibility of applying scenario methods in the contemporary city planning.
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Qian, Xinbo, Qiuhua Tang, and Bo Tao. "A Novel Scenario Reduction Method by 3D-Outputs Clustering for Condition-Based Maintenance Optimization." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 24, no. 04 (2017): 1750018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539317500188.
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Condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization involves considering inherent uncertainties and external uncertainties. Since computational complexity increases exponentially with the number of degradation uncertainties and stages, scenario reduction aims to select small set of typical scenarios which can maintain the probability distributions of outputs of possible scenarios. A novel scenario reduction method, 3D-outputs-clustering scenario reduction (3DOCS), is presented by considering the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the output performance for CBM optimization which have been overlooked. Since the output performance for CBM is much more essential than the inputs, the proposed scenario reduction method reduces degradation scenarios by [Formula: see text]-means clustering of the multiple outputs of degradations scenarios for CBM. It minimizes the probabilistic distribution distances of outputs between original and selected scenarios. Case studies show that 3DOCS has advantages as a smaller distance of output performance of selected scenarios compared to that of initial scenarios.
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Chen, Yongjie, and Tieru Wu. "SATVSR: Scenario Adaptive Transformer for Cross Scenarios Video Super-Resolution." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2456, no. 1 (2023): 012028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2456/1/012028.
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Abstract Video Super-Resolution (VSR) aims to recover sequences of high-resolution (HR) frames from low-resolution (LR) frames. Previous methods mainly utilize temporally adjacent frames to assist the reconstruction of target frames. However, in the real world, there is a lot of irrelevant information in adjacent frames of videos with fast scene switching, these VSR methods cannot adaptively distinguish and select useful information. In contrast, with a transformer structure suitable for temporal tasks, we devise a novel adaptive scenario video super-resolution method. Specifically, we use optical flow to label the patches in each video frame, only calculate the attention of patches with the same label. Then select the most relevant label among them to supplement the spatial-temporal information of the target frame. This design can directly make the supplementary information come from the same scene as much as possible. We further propose a cross-scale feature aggregation module to better handle the scale variation problem. Compared with other video super-resolution methods, our method not only achieves significant performance gains on single-scene videos but also has better robustness on cross-scene datasets.
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JI, XIAODONG, XIUJUAN ZHAO, and XIULI CHAO. "A NOVEL METHOD FOR MULTISTAGE SCENARIO GENERATION BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS." International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 05, no. 03 (2006): 513–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219622006002106.
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Based on cluster analysis, a novel method is introduced in this paper to generate multistage scenarios. A linear programming model is proposed to exclude the arbitrage opportunity by appending a scenario to the generated scenario set. By means of a cited stochastic linear goal programming portfolio model, a case is given to exhibit the virtues of this scenario generation approach.
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Hendrawan, Riko, and Ariful Ulya. "Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 23, no. 1 (2023): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011.
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The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios.
 Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER
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Zhai, Yang, Yufei Zhang, Zhibin Du, et al. "Research on the Data Collection and Scenario Generation Method for Automated Vehicles." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2665, no. 1 (2023): 012002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2665/1/012002.
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Abstract Automated vehicles should be tested before they can be driven on the road, and the data collection and scenario generation is of great significance for the functional verification and development of automated vehicles. This research focuses on the methods for data collection and scenario generation. The data collection system is established to form industry recognized standards for the data collection. The data collection platform uses vehicles which are equipped with sensors. Based on functions of automated vehicles, functional scenarios, logical scenarios and specific scenarios are established in sequence. Specific scenarios are obtained by Monte Carlo random sampling with the probability density distribution to improve the efficiency of simulation testings. Results show that the method of data collection and scenario generation is reasonable and the scenarios based on the real world can be generated to verify the effectiveness of the automated vehicles.
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Mohammed, Q. Mohammed, Q. Muhamed Saif, Ievlanov Maksym, and Gazetdinova Zarina. "IMPROVEMENT OF THE METHOD OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS TO AN INFORMATION SYSTEM." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 3, no. 2(99) (2019): 25–35. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2019.170351.
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We have considered a task on improving the base method for scenario analysis of the functional requirements to an information system (IS). The results from studies of the methods for scenario analysis of the functional requirements to IS have been analyzed. Their main drawback in our opinion is the need for the implementation of these methods by analysts manually only. To overcome this shortcoming, it has been proposed to improve the base method for scenario analysis by using the models and methods based on a formal knowledge representation. For a formal description of the representation of a scenario for implementing a functional requirement at the level of knowledge, it has been proposed to use a model of structural patterns in the design of functional requirements. It has been shown that the formal description of knowledge derived from the Use Case diagrams is a special case of a given model. We have proposed a model of the subclass of structural patterns for designing scenarios for the implementation of functional requirements. An improved method of scenario analysis of functional requirements to IS has been constructed. The essence of improvement is the selection from the publications of scenarios for meeting the requirements of knowledge and a subsequent analysis of knowledge-oriented descriptions of these scenarios in order to identify overlapping scenarios for the implementation of various functional requirements to IS. To identify and address the cases of such duplication, it has been proposed to use the improved method of synthesis of architecture descriptions variants for a created IS. An example is provided of testing the improved method of scenario analysis of functional requirements in the course of analysis of functional requirements to a project of the functional module of labor safety. The verification results confirm reliability of the proposed method. The proposed improved method for scenario analysis of functional requirements to IS makes it possible to obtain a description of the architecture of a created IS based on a much smaller amount of information on the functional requirements to IS.
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Ulandari, I. Gusti Agung Ayu Manik, I. Komang Arya Ganda Wiguna, and I. Made Dedy Setiawan. "Sentiment Analysis of Twitter Comments (X) on the Cyanide Coffee Case Using Comparison of Naïve Bayes and K-NN Method Results." TECHNOVATE: Journal of Information Technology and Strategic Innovation Management 2, no. 1 (2025): 59–69. https://doi.org/10.52432/technovate.2.1.2025.59-69.
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Twitter is a social media platform that is often used by the general public to communicate and gather information. Through this social media, users can express various opinions or comments about a particular issue such as the cyanide coffee case. The methods used in this research are Naïve Bayes and K-NN methods and the purpose of this research is to compare the two methods in sentiment analysis of the cyanide coffee case. In testing this sentiment analysis using 3 stages of scenarios, where the 60:40 ratio is used for scenario number 1, the 70:30 ratio is used for scenario 2 and the 80:20 ratio is used for scenario 3. From the test results that have been carried out, it can be seen that testing the Naïve Bayes method in scenario 3 is superior to other scenarios with 87.76% accuracy, 92.80% precision and 67.09% recall. Meanwhile, the K-NN method in scenario 3 is superior to other scenarios with an accuracy of 80.60%, precision of 89.87% and recall of 61.72%.
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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.
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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.
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Nugrahanto, Candra Arie, Jaka Windarta, and Jaka Aminata. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)." E3S Web of Conferences 73 (2018): 01002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187301002.
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This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).
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Beuth, Thomas, Jens Eckel, Gerd Frieling, Martin Navarro, Stefan Schöbel, and Torben Weyand. "Development of a method for the scenario-based identification of calculation models (EMS)." Safety of Nuclear Waste Disposal 2 (September 6, 2023): 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/sand-2-81-2023.
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Abstract. A key goal of final disposal is the safe confinement of the radioactive waste to protect people and the environment. In order to evaluate the safe confinement, inter alia the consideration and analysis of expected and deviating developments of the disposal system are required. The derivation and identification of potential safety-relevant developments is the task of scenario development. With regard to the safety assessment, the scenarios (developments) are to be treated within the framework of numerical model calculations. It is essential that the calculation cases cover the scenarios and comprehensively consider the essential developments. The focus of the EMS (Entwicklung einer Methode zur szenariengestützten Identifizierung von Berechnungsmodellen) project (Beuth et al., 2021) is the development and testing of a method for the scenario-based identification of calculation models and the associated calculation cases. The main aspect of the method is an intensive, iterative exchange between the disciplines of scenario development and modeling, in which calculation cases are gradually optimized or adapted with a view to representativeness up to the required degree of scenario coverage. The testing and further developing of the procedure shall help to identify difficulties in the development of scenario-based calculation cases. Transparency, traceability and possible gaps in justification for modeling decisions are also important issues. Up to now, only little research has been done on the question of when a scenario is covered by calculation cases. Experience from safety analyses, e.g., the preliminary safety analysis for Gorleben (Fischer-Appelt et al., 2013), confirm that the derivation of calculation cases from scenarios is difficult. Therefore, one goal of this study is to assist the development of the derivation from calculation cases based on scenario development. The outcome of the EMS project is intended to support the Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management (BASE) within the framework of supervision and approval in the evaluation process of whether scenarios have been sufficiently covered by calculation cases.
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Frum, Olha, Serhii Didukh, and Lyudmila Lobotska. "Methodological approaches to effective planning of enterprise profitability strategies based on scenario simulation method." Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics and Technology 2024, no. 3 (2024): 418–22. https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2024-3-75.
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In the new economic conditions formed under the influence of the global pandemic and military aggression, a new vision of the essence and sequence of specific actions is necessary to manage Ukrainian enterprises to make sound economic decisions and determine their further behavior in the market environment. The article considers the scenario planning method as part of the strategic planning of enterprises, which expands the possibilities of enterprise management in conditions of high uncertainty based on the construction of various future models. Theoretical approaches to the scenario method, its differences from traditional planning and forecasting methods, and its features are studied. The authors expressed that scenario planning cannot be equated with forecasting based on extrapolation of past periods; in contrast to forecasting methods, scenario planning models the future states of the object. It aims to assess the highest probability of obtaining a result and the consequences of performing a specific sequence and set of actions to achieve this result. With the help of the scenario method, you can get versatile options for changing the object to decide on developing a development strategy. Based on the simulated scenarios of the possible results of implementing profitability strategies depending on profit-making factors such as net income and cost of goods sold, the most effective profitability strategy was chosen in the existing conditions. Based on the analysis, it was concluded that the scenario planning method is used in cases where the usual forecasting methods are ineffective due to the lack of retrospective data or a significant change in the trend. Therefore, this method will be necessary and expedient in the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy. It was determined that obtaining objective results from modeling scenarios and developing strategies for scenario planning should contain not only formalized factors but also informalized ones. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario method, profitability strategies, strategy model, forecasting, correlation-regression analysis, substantiation of economic decisions, development planning.
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Skiter, I. S., and V. V. Derenhovskyi. "Analysis of scenarios for transforming the object "Ukryttya" into an environmentally safe system by the method of multicriteria optimization." Nuclear Physics and Atomic Energy 25, no. 1 (2024): 47–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/jnpae2024.01.047.
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Based on the criteria for comparative analysis of scenarios grouped into factors, the value of scenarios was determined using the multicriteria optimization methodology. The evaluation methodology includes indicators of weights of factor groups and weights of criteria for the relevant factors. Scenario value assessment is determined by calculating a generalized weighted additive function. It is used to rank the scenarios with the established parametric characteristics of the criteria. The results of the scenario assessment and their ranking are recommendations for making decisions on the sequence of scenario implementation.
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Li, Tao, Xuetao Lv, Yiyang Zhang, et al. "Wind power access site selection method based on scenario probability." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2656, no. 1 (2023): 012009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2656/1/012009.
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Abstract The fluctuation of new energy output makes the power system operation more complex, and the traditional power system tide calculation is no longer fully applicable. Therefore, the determination of wind farm output and site selection is important and fundamental research at present. Based on this, a combination of wind farm output scenario and probability is proposed. The site selection model with the minimum network loss of the distribution network as the optimization objective is proposed. First, the wind farm output is clustered into several typical scenarios by K-Means, and the output time series model and the probability of each typical scenario are obtained. The probabilities of each scenario are multiplied by the network losses under that scenario. Then, the network losses obtained for all individual scenarios are summed up and used as the minimum objective function. The model is solved by a genetic algorithm with tidal current constraint and node voltage constraint to derive the optimal wind farm access point. With the IEEE33 node, simulations are performed to derive the minimum value of the daily average network loss, which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the optimized model.
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Chen, Lijia, Kai Wang, Kezhong Liu, et al. "Combinatorial-Testing-Based Multi-Ship Encounter Scenario Generation for Collision Avoidance Algorithm Evaluation." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 13, no. 2 (2025): 338. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13020338.
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Collision avoidance algorithms play a crucial role in ensuring the safety and effectiveness of autonomous ships, which require comprehensive testing in realistic multi-ship encounter scenarios. However, existing scenario generation methods often inadequately represent the spatiotemporal complexity and dynamic risk interactions of real-world encounters, leading to biased evaluations. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a combinatorial-testing-based scenario generation framework integrated with spatiotemporal complexity optimisation. First, a full-process scenario representation model is developed by abstracting real-world navigation features into a discretised parameter space. Subsequently, a combinatorial-testing-based scenario generation method is adopted to cover the parameter space, generating a high-coverage scenario set. Finally, spatiotemporal complexity is introduced to filter out oversimplified scenarios and extremely dangerous scenarios. Experiments demonstrated that 13.7% of generated scenarios were eliminated as unrealistic or trivial, while high-risk encounter scenarios and multi-ship interaction scenarios were amplified by 7.96 times and 5.84 times, respectively. Compared to conventional methods, the optimised scenario set exhibited superior alignment with real-world complexity, including dynamic risk escalation and multi-ship coordination challenges. The proposed framework not only advances scenario generation methodology through its integration of combinatorial testing and complexity-driven optimisation, but also provides a practical tool for rigorously validating autonomous ship safety systems.
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Zhang, Rui, and Fan Deng. "Research on the Application of Scenario Simulation Teaching Method in Business Negotiation Course." Journal of Education and Educational Research 11, no. 2 (2024): 205–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/jkzf1f34.
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Business negotiation is an important part of modern business activities, and business negotiation course is one of the key courses in business education. However, traditional business negotiation teaching methods often fail to effectively cultivate students' practical ability and ability to cope with complex negotiation scenarios. Scenario simulation teaching method is a teaching method that simulates real scenarios, which can effectively improve students' practical ability and coping ability. This paper explores the application of scenario simulation teaching method in business negotiation courses, including its theoretical basis, teaching design, implementation process and effect evaluation.
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Tang, Xiangying, Yan Hu, Zhanpeng Chen, and Guangzeng You. "Flexibility Evaluation Method of Power Systems with High Proportion Renewable Energy Based on Typical Operation Scenarios." Electronics 9, no. 4 (2020): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics9040627.
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The development of renewable energy represented by wind, photovoltaic and hydropower has increased the uncertainty of power systems. In order to ensure the flexible operation of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, it is necessary to establish a multi-scenario power system flexibility evaluation method. First, this study uses a modified k-means algorithm to cluster operating scenarios of renewable energy and load to obtain several typical scenarios. Then, flexibility evaluation indices are proposed from three perspectives, including supply and demand balance of the zone, power flow distribution of the zone and transmission capacity between zones. Next, to calculate the flexibility evaluation indices of each scenario—and according to the occurrence probability of each scenario—we multiplied the indices of each scenario by the scenario occurrence probability to obtain comprehensive evaluation indices of all scenarios. Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, a flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and modified IEEE 39 system. The results show that the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices can effectively reflect the flexibility status of the power system.
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Meissner, Philip, and Torsten Wulf. "The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight." Journal of Strategy and Management 8, no. 2 (2015): 176–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004.
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Purpose – Research focussed on the scenario method has increasingly criticized the widely used intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario development and introduced enhanced approaches, such as the backwards logic method (BLM) or the antifragile (AF) method, to overcome the restrictions associated with the IL approach. The BLM and the AF method have contributed to the further development of the scenario method by integrating backward reasoning and by increasing the method’s effectiveness for decision making. The purpose of this paper is to build on these ideas and introduce strategy scenarios as a further enhancement of the scenario method that directly applies the benefits of scenario-based planning to strategy development in corporations. Design/methodology/approach – The authors argue that the existing methodologies do not fully integrate the benefits of scenario-based planning for strategic decision making and strategy development, as they mostly aim to develop macroenvironmental scenarios and test organizations’ existing strategies. Findings – The paper suggests that changing the scope of scenario planning from environmental developments to the organization’s strategies themselves can further strengthen the method’s effectiveness for decision making. Originality/value – The strategy scenario approach provides an enhanced approach to more comprehensively utilize the benefits of scenario-based reasoning for strategic decision making.
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Zhao, Kaigong, Haiyan Wang, and Dengfeng Zheng. "Research on Structural Similarity Design Emergency Exercise’s Scenario." Geofluids 2022 (February 11, 2022): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6590957.
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In order to better apply the “situational response” model in the field of fluidized mining emergency management, it is the first step and the most critical problem to construct a reasonable scenario for fluidized mining emergency drills and reasonably put forward emergency management measures. Therefore, the structural similarity method is adopted in this paper to design emergency exercise scenarios. Firstly, a model of hierarchical structured scenarios is proposed, namely, modules of “Event-Environment-State of scenario-Disposal of task-Emergency action- Resources subject.” Secondly, a scenario chain is designed, and a prediction method of the event development trend under the current scenario is proposed. Thirdly, the calculation method of scenario similarity and the proposed emergency response scheme method under the current situation after similarity comparison are proposed. Finally, the structural similarity analysis method is used to verify the application of “scenario construction” in oil and gas pipeline accidents, and better analysis results are obtained. Through this research, the application of “scenario design” in fluidized mining emergency management has been expanded and enriched, and technical support for “scenario design” of fluidized mining assisted decisions is provided.
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Zhang, Yufei, Bohua Sun, Yaxin Li, et al. "Research on the Physics–Intelligence Hybrid Theory Based Dynamic Scenario Library Generation for Automated Vehicles." Sensors 22, no. 21 (2022): 8391. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s22218391.
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The testing and evaluation system has been the key technology and security with its necessity in the development and deployment of maturing automated vehicles. In this research, the physics–intelligence hybrid theory-based dynamic scenario library generation method is proposed to improve system performance, in particular, the testing efficiency and accuracy for automated vehicles. A general framework of the dynamic scenario library generation is established. Then, the parameterized scenario based on the dimension optimization method is specified to obtain the effective scenario element set. Long-tail functions for performance testing of specific ODD are constructed as optimization boundaries and critical scenario searching methods are proposed based on the node optimization and sample expansion methods for the low-dimensional scenario library generation and the reinforcement learning for the high-dimensional one, respectively. The scenario library generation method is evaluated with the naturalistic driving data (NDD) of the intelligent electric vehicle in the field test. Results show better efficient and accuracy performances compared with the ideal testing library and the NDD, respectively, in both low- and high-dimensional scenarios.
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khademi Jolgeh Nejad, Afsaneh, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali, and Ali Heyrani. "Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method." Depiction of Health 12, no. 4 (2021): 310–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/doh.2021.30.
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Background and Objectives The hospital and its supply chain must be resilient in the critical situations. Developing scenario is an important tool for planning and decision-making process in these situations. Therefore, this study intended to develop possible scenarios for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research study is applied in terms of purpose and is based the scenario method and the probabilistic trends approach. The participants of the study were 14 experts from two hospitals who were selected through a purposeful sampling method. The data obtained in the first phase of the semi-structured interviews, were coded and analyzed through using MAXQDA Software. In the next phase, the cross impact analysis questionnaire was used to develop the scenario and the analysis of the data was performed through Scenario Wizard software. Results The results of combining 35 states for 12 factors affecting hospital resilience which also included all possible future states, showed that 7 scenarios with high adaptation and 467 scenarios with poor adaptation can be considered. Strong scenarios were divided into three groups of scenarios as "optimistic", "intermediate" and "pessimistic" based on similarity and degree of desirability. Conclusion The Findings revealed that the strength of the impact of unfavorable states was more than that of favorable states. Therefore, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to unfavorable scenarios to provide the necessary preparation to face those states, and with proper planning, the desired states can be achieved. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives The complexity and intensity of environmental fluctuations combined with unexpected accidents and dangers have increased the probability of hospital supply chain disruptions. The hospital and its supply chain must be intelligent to resist unforeseen events, so that in different situations, there is no work stoppage in their activities. Scenarios are an important tool for improving the planning and decision-making process in these situations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a scenario for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research is based on the scenario method, and it is applied in terms of purpose. In addition, in the category of normative scenarios and based on the probabilistic modified trends (PMT) school. The Participants were 14 experts from two hospitals who were purposefully selected. The data obtained in the first phase from interviews, were coded and analyzed through MAXQDA Software. In the second phase, based on the participants' viewpoints, the possible states of each of the identified factors in the previous stage were defined, and the cross impact questionnaire was designed. The cross impact questionnaire is in the form of a matrix in which respondents determine the effect of each state on other states. Finally, cross impact analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to compile the scenario and compatibility coefficients and total impact score indices were used to examine compatible scenarios. Results Based on analysis results of the semi-structured interviews, 30 drivers of hospital supply chain resilience were identified. These factors were clustered in the form of 12 main components including: "staff preparedness and accountability in the event of a disaster", "safety of infrastructure and equipment", "recovery of infrastructure after disaster", "cooperation and participation of various organizations and communication systems among them", "support systems and potential hospital capacity", "coordination and flexibility of suppliers", "planning and management of disaster", "nature of accidents", "government policies", "sanctions on drugs and equipment", "people's culture at the time of the accident", and "funding". The output of Scenario Wizard software showed 7 strong scenarios that were divided into three groups of scenarios as "Optimistic", "pessimistic" and "interstitial" based on their rank and degree of desirability. The Optimistic scenarios include ideal resilient and hard resilient scenarios, the interstitial scenarios comprise high-capacity and troublesome challenging scenarios, and the pessimistic scenarios consist of vulnerable, defenseless and fragmented scenarios. Conclusion The results showed that the strength of the impact of undesirable situations was more than that of desirable situations. Hence, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to undesirable scenarios in comparison to desirable ones in order to provide the necessary preparation to face those situations and to reach the desirable situations through proper planning. Practical Implications of Research Due to the challenges of traditional planning in the face of the future, in this study, the scenario developing approach was used as a tool to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning in the hospital supply chain. Managers and planners can substitute alternative futures for a single future and plan to take advantage of favorable future situations and avoid or reduce the effects of unfavorable future situations to be better prepared to face the future. Ethical Considerations In the present study, all ethical considerations have been observed based on the recommendations and regulations. Conflict of Interest The authors stated that there is no conflict of interest. Aknowledgment This article is based on the result of Afsaneh Khademi-Jolgehnejad’s Master thesis submitted to the University of Hormozgan and received approval code Under 11130.Authors are grateful to the consultants of the Clinical Research Development Center of Shahid Mohammadi Hospital and Bandar Abbas Children's Hospital for their cooperation and guidances.
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Gao, Feng, Jianli Duan, Yingdong He, and Zilong Wang. "A Test Scenario Automatic Generation Strategy for Intelligent Driving Systems." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (January 15, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3737486.
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In this paper, a methodology of automatic generation of test scenarios for intelligent driving systems is proposed, which is based on the combination of the test matrix (TM) and combinatorial testing (CT) methods together. With a hierarchical model of influence factors, an evaluation index for scenario complexity is designed. Then an improved CT algorithm is proposed to make a balance between test efficiency, condition coverage, and scenario complexity. This method can ensure the required combinational coverage and at the same time increase the overall complexity of generated scenarios, which is not considered by CT. Furthermore, the way to find the best compromise between efficiency and complexity and the bound of scenario number has been analyzed theoretically. To validate the effectiveness, it has been applied in the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test of a lane departure warning system (LDW). The results show that the proposed method can ensure required coverage with a significantly improved scenario complexity, and the generated test scenario can find system defects more efficiently.
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Vesali, Leila, Seyed Reza Naqib Sadat, Hossein Afkhami, and Ali Asghar Kia. "Managing uncertainties for effective social network: Strategic analysis of media literacy with Scenario Planning Method." Journal of Governance and Accountability Studies 2, no. 1 (2022): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/jgas.v2i1.755.
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Abstract Purpose: This research was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and explore alternative futures in this field in Iran. Research methodology: The method of this research was scenario planning or scenario design with an exploratory futuristic approach. In this method, in several steps from identifying the factors affecting the future of media literacy to exploring future uncertainties, creating the logic of scenarios, describing the narrative of scenarios, identifying and strategically analyzing opportunities and threats related to each scenario, and finally identifying strategies for the future Includes with each scenario. Results: In this study, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively. The output of the research is to present four possible future scenarios of media literacy with the letters of Paradise Lost, Titanic, Leviathan, and The Dark Knight, each of which is described in the following article. Limitations: Each of the strategies is derived from the matrix analysis of opportunities and threats and their interaction. Contribution: The present study will theoretically contribute to the academic and theoretical richness as well as promote the culture and literature of futurism in the field of communication sciences and especially in the field of media literacy. It has operational importance and necessity.
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V. Ya, Shvets, Baranets H. V, and Hrebenko D. O. "Scenario forecasting of changes in the state of Ukrainian steel plants in the conditions of war on the basis of probabilistic methods." Economic Bulletin of Dnipro University of Technology 81 (June 2023): 136–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.33271/ebdut/82.136.
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Methods. The results were obtained through the use of the following methods: systematic and comparative analysis – when determining changes in the composition of external factors influencing the activity of metallurgical enterprises in wartime conditions; abstraction – when determining the adjusted probability of the development of events under each scenario; modeling – when constructing a posteriori probabilities of the realization of scenarios of changes in the status of metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine. Results. The possibility of using probabilistic methods in the developed model of scenario forecasting of changes in the state of industrial enterprises in wartime is substantiated. The Bayesian method allows to quantify the probability of implementation of each scenario. Based on the study of the factors influencing the activities of steel plants in the first half of 2023, the scenario forecasting model is corrected in the forecast estimates of the performance of individual indicators. Taking into account the direction of changes in the indicators, the corrected probability of events under each scenario was determined. The a posteriori probabilities of realization of the scenarios of changes in the state of steel plants of Ukraine are calculated using the Bayes formula. Novelty. A scientific and methodological approach to scenario forecasting of changes in the state of steel enterprises in wartime conditions is developed based on the use of probabilistic modeling methods, in particular the Bayesian method. Practical value. The obtained results of the scenario forecasting of changes in the state of steel enterprises of Ukraine in the conditions of war, which are supplemented by determining the probability of implementation of each scenario based on the calculation of a posteriori probability using the Bayesian method, allow managers of steel enterprises to develop programs of recovery from the crisis caused by military aggression and its consequences, taking into account the most likely scenario of events.
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Kowalski, Zygmunt, Magdalena Muradin, Joanna Kulczycka, and Agnieszka Makara. "Comparative Analysis of Meat Bone Meal and Meat Bone Combustion Using the Life Cycle Assessment Method." Energies 14, no. 11 (2021): 3292. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14113292.
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LCA analysis with 16 impact categories was used for the comparison of two developed combustion technologies: Scenario I—the combustion of meat bone meal produced from all types of meat waste; Scenario II—the combustion of meat bones from the production of meat products. The key hotspots determined were electricity and natural gas consumption, covering as much as 98.2% of the total influence on the environment in Scenario I and 99.3% in Scenario II. Without taking into account the environmental burdens avoided, the LCA analysis showed that Scenario I was assessed to have 71.2% less environmental impact. The avoided burdens approach changed the relationship between the two scenarios. The absolute value score for the overall environmental impact shows that Scenario II can be more environmentally beneficial than Scenario I; however, Scenario I allowed the elimination of all types of Polish meat waste, and Scenario II could only be carried out in meat production units for the elimination of meat bone waste and by-products from meat processing (i.e., 23% of the total meat waste produced in Poland).
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Yoo, Jaehyun, Yongju Son, Myungseok Yoon, and Sungyun Choi. "A Wind Power Scenario Generation Method Based on Copula Functions and Forecast Errors." Sustainability 15, no. 23 (2023): 16536. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su152316536.
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The scenario of renewable energy generation significantly affects the probabilistic distribution system analysis. To reflect the probabilistic characteristics of actual data, this paper proposed a scenario generation method that can reflect the spatiotemporal characteristics of wind power generation and the probabilistic characteristics of forecast errors. The scenario generation method consists of a process of sampling random numbers and a process of inverse sampling using the cumulative distribution function. In sampling random numbers, random numbers that mimic the spatiotemporal correlation of power generation were generated using the copula function. Furthermore, the cumulative distribution functions of forecast errors according to power generation bins were used, thereby reflecting the probabilistic characteristics of forecast errors. The wind power generation scenarios in Jeju Island, generated by the proposed method, were analyzed through various indices that can assess accuracy. As a result, it was confirmed that by using the proposed scenario generation method, scenarios similar to actual data can be generated, which in turn allows for preparation of situations with a high probability of occurrence within the distribution system.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.
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The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.
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The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Zhang, Jianfei, and Sai Ke. "Improved YOLOX Fire Scenario Detection Method." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2022 (March 10, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/9666265.
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Considering the problems of existing target detection model difficulty for use in complicated fire scenarios and few detection targets, an improved YOLOX fire scenario detection model was introduced, to realize multitarget detection of flame, smoke, and persons: firstly, a light attention module, for improving the overall detection performance of the model; secondly, the channel shuffle technique was employed, for increasing the communication ability between channels; and finally, the backbone channel was replaced with a light transformer module, for enhancing the capture ability of the backbone channel for global information. As shown in the experiment with self-developed fire dataset, mAP of T-YOLOX increased by 2.24% as compared with the benchmark model (YOLOX), and the detection accuracy was significantly improved as compared with that of CenterNet and YOLOv3, showing the effectiveness and advantages of the algorithm.
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Alizadeh, Reza, and Leili Soltanisehat. "Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry." foresight 22, no. 3 (2020): 309–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2019-0048.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.
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Wu, Yi Zhou, and Ling Lin Wu. "The Application of GIS-SCENARIO Decision Method in Spatial Planning." Advanced Materials Research 368-373 (October 2011): 1798–801. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.368-373.1798.
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This study puts forward the framework of GIS—Scenario decision method and introduces some methods, ideas, principles and analysis process applied in regional spatial planning. Combining the GIS spatial analysis method with the scenario—planning, simulating and contrasting scenarios for regional key development zones, this study determines regional development strategies. Findings show that the GIS-SCENARIO analysis method can quantitatively analyze factors influencing the spatial distribution more accurately. Considering fully complex real situation and combined with reasonable value judgments, the GIS can provide various factors with a spatial analysis platform to contact and contrast with each other. As a strategic planning approach, it enables decision makers decide relatively reasonably in an uncertain and unpredictable situation and improves rationality in planning.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Nidya Shara Mahardika, and Lia Sumi Karmila. "PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN MINAPOLITAN DI KABUPATEN SITUBONDO." JURNAL AGROTEKNOLOGI 14, no. 01 (2020): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/j-agt.v14i01.16598.
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The Government of Situbondo Regency has implemented an agropolitan program in its region since 2013 to develop the potential of fisheries and marine resources. However, the program has not been able to develop as expected and still lacks the impact. This study aimed to determine the prospects for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. The results of this study were expected to provide guidelines for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. This study used a prospective analysis method. Method of minapolitan development strategy formulation used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This research produced scenarios that might occur in the future. These scenarios could serve as a guideline for the preparation of the minapolitan development strategy in Situbondo Regency. The results of the study showed that there were four scenarios will occur in the future, namely the optimistic developing scenario, the pessimistic developing scenario, there was still hope scenario and alert scenario. Based on discussions with experts, the most likely scenario to occur were an optimistic developing scenario and there was still hope scenario. Based on the scenarios that were most likely to occur, the strategy that can be applied for the development of Minapolitan in Situbondo Regency based on AHP method was to provide assistance and facilitate access to technology, markets, and capital.Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, minapolitan, prospective analysis
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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.
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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.
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Nagy, Jozsef, Wolfgang Fenz, Veronika M. Miron, et al. "Fluid–Structure Interaction Simulations of the Initiation Process of Cerebral Aneurysms." Brain Sciences 14, no. 10 (2024): 977. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/brainsci14100977.
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Background: Hemodynamics during the growth process of cerebral aneurysms are incompletely understood. We developed a novel fluid–structure interaction analysis method for the identification of relevant scenarios of aneurysm onset. Method: This method integrates both fluid dynamics and structural mechanics, as well as their mutual interaction, for a comprehensive analysis. Patients with a single unruptured cerebral aneurysm were included. Results: Overall, three scenarios were identified. In scenario A, wall shear stress (WSS) was low, and the oscillatory shear index (OSI) was high in large areas within the region of aneurysm onset (RAO). In scenario B, the quantities indicated a reversed behavior, where WSS was high and OSI was low. In the last scenario C, a behavior in-between was found, with scenarios A and B coexisting simultaneously in the RAO. Structural mechanics demonstrated a similar but independent trend. Further, we analyzed the change in hemodynamics between the onset and a fully developed aneurysm. While scenarios A and C remained unchanged during aneurysm growth, 47% of aneurysms in scenario B changed into scenario A and 20% into scenario C. Conclusions: In conclusion, these findings suggest that WSS and the OSI are reciprocally regulated, and both low and high WSS/OSI conditions can lead to aneurysm onset.
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Huang, Kui, Wen Nie, and Nianxue Luo. "A Method of Constructing Marine Oil Spill Scenarios from Flat Text Based on Semantic Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8 (2020): 2659. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082659.
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Constructed emergency response scenarios provide a basis for decision makers to make management decisions, and the development of such scenarios considers earlier historical cases. Over the decades, the development of emergency response scenarios has mainly implemented the elements of historic cases to describe the grade and influence of an accident. This paper focuses on scenario construction and proposes a corresponding framework based on natural language processing (NLP) using text reports of marine oil spill accidents. For each accident, the original textual reports are first divided into sentence sets corresponding to the temporal evolution. Each sentence set is regarded as a textual description of a marine oil spill scenario. A method is proposed in this paper, based on parsing, named entity recognition (NER) and open information extraction (OpenIE) to process the relation triples that are extracted from the sentence sets. Finally, the relation triples are semantically clustered into different marine oil spill domains to construct scenarios. The research results are validated and indicate that the proposed scenario construction framework can be effectively used in practical applications.
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Tirel, Kévin, Timothée Kooyman, Christine Coquelet-Pascal, and Elsa Merle. "Coupling reactor design and scenario calculations: a promising method for scenario optimization." EPJ Nuclear Sciences & Technologies 8 (2022): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjn/2022002.
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The link between reactor design studies and scenarios calculations is usually sequential. From a list set of objectives, a reactor design is produced and passed to the scenarist in the form of a numeric irradiation model. This approach assumes that the reactor design is fixed from the scenarist perspective. The method presented in this article proposes to use a flexible reactor model, built with artificial neural networks, that gives the possibility to the scenarist to change a reactor design directly during the scenario calculations. Doing so, the reactor design is no longer an imposed parameter but a tool to find new optimal trajectories. Moreover, this flexible model is able to exploit the historical loaded fuel compositions generated by the scenario calculations in order to monitor the reactor performances over time. In this paper, the flexible reactor model construction is detailed and the interest of such method is highlighted with an application case that consists in the transition from a PWR fleet, similar to the French one, towards a PWR − SFR fleet stabilizing plutonium inventory.
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Hou, Zhan Sheng, He Wang, Min Xu, et al. "A Scenario Information Space Model Construction Method Based on Grid Operation Scenario." Procedia Computer Science 166 (2020): 88–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.02.025.
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