Academic literature on the topic 'Sebastien le prestre de'

En este artículo se analizarán los conceptos de memoria, mnemotecnia, palimpsesto e hipertexto. Sebastien Marot (2003), profesor de la École d’Architecture de la Ville & des Territoires – Marne-la-Vallée (Francia), explica que estos cuatro reflejos son una nueva forma de afrontar un programa de diseño en arquitectura, el cual da prioridad al emplazamiento. Estos mismos conceptos –memoria, mnemotecnia, palimpsesto, hipertexto– están relacionados con la conservación, ya sea en un contexto urbano o arquitectónico. El objetivo de este trabajo es dar ejemplos (en su mayoría en Ciudad de Panamá) de su uso en esta disciplina, y vincular estos reflejos o características a un método para desarrollar un proyecto de conservación. Mediante estos ejemplos se explicará cómo la memoria y la mnemotecnia mantienen el espíritu del lugar, cómo un palimpsesto representa la historia de las transformaciones de un territorio, ciudad o edificio, y cómo ayuda un hipertexto a organizar un proyecto de conservación. Palabras clave.-Memoria, mnemotecnia, palimpsesto. ABSTRACTThis article will analyze the concepts of memory, mnemonic, palimpsest and hypertext. Sebastien Marot (2003), professor of the École d’Architecture de la Ville & des Territoires - Marne-la-Vallée (France), explains that these four reflexes are a new way of facing a design program in architecture, which prioritizes the site. These same concepts –memory, mnemonics, palimpsest and hypertext– are related to preservation, either in an urban or architectural context. The goal of this paper is to give examples (mostly in Panama City) of their use in this discipline, and relate these reflexes or characteristics to a method for the development of a conservation project. These examples will explain how memory and mnemonics preserve the spirit of place, how a palimpsest represents the history of the transformations of a territory, city or building, and how a hypertext can help organize a preservation project. Keywords.-Memory, mnemonics, palimpsest.

Protection de l'environnement et relations internationales, les défis de l'écopolitique mondiale, Philippe Le Prestre, Paris : Armand Colin, 2005, 477 pages.L'ouvrage de Philippe Le Prestre se présente comme une tentative de clarification des débats internationaux sur la protection de l'environnement. Dès l'avant-propos, l'auteur nous dit : “ l'écopolitique internationale fait référence à l'ensemble des dimensions politiques de l'identification et de la résolution des questions environnementales et, plus particulièrement, aux tentatives des acteurs internationaux d'imposer leurs définitions de la sécurité face à la nature et à la qualité de vie des populations et d'utiliser les nouvelles pénuries à leur profit ”. En ce sens, l'auteur indique trois axes qui devront être développés pour saisir convenablement la position des enjeux environnementaux dans les relations internationales. D'abord, circonscrire le lieu du débat sur la protection de l'environnement dans le réseau plus large des problèmes internationaux et de l'élaboration des politiques publiques, ensuite tracer l'évolution historique de l'exigence environnementale dans les relations internationales, et ce par l'étude des positions nationales et multinationales pour chacune des principales étapes de ce développement, et finalement identifier les points d'arrimage entre les questions environnementales et les questions internationales de l'heure, notamment celles du libre-échange et de la sécurité. Ces trois axes correspondent aux trois parties du livre de Le Prestre, ce qui lui permet de synthétiser les différents aspects des questions environnementales internationales et de rendre compte des principaux éléments de cette problématique, tout en en montrant la complexité.

In addition to borrowing from his own works, Gautier le Leu appears to be indebted to numerous other narratives for elements in his fabliaux. Le fol Vilain probably elaborates on some antecedent of La Sorisete des Estopes, and La Damoisele qui ne pooit oïr parler de foutre furnishes a conceit that reappears in Le sot Chevalier, Connebert, and Les deus Vilains. Although Gautier claims, in the opening lines of Connebert, to have written Le Prestre teint, the extant version of that fabliau is not by him, so his possible indebtness to Le Prestre et le Chevalier of Milles d’Amiens is speculative. Finally, the line of descent from the Alda of Guillaume de Blois through the Trubert of Douin to the anonymous L’Esquiriel connects not at all with Gautier, and only marginally with La Damoisele qui ne pooit oïr parler de foutre.

Allemand j. S. Bach (1685-1750) a, du moins dans ses oeuvres vocales vue : celui du choix des tonalites utilisees
Run down the idea of "bach composing pure music" are here taken up, but considered from another point of view - that of the choice

Sebastien stoskopff : sa vie, son oeuvre. Sa vie a ete resituee dans les divers contextes culturels et artistiques. Son oeuvre est reconstituee dans un catalogue, mais egalement etudiee par rapport a la creation contemporaine en allemagne, france, flandre, hollande, et italie. Cette triple approche permet de mettre en evidence les particularites de l'artiste, tant du point de vue pictural que iconographique
Sebastien stoskopff : his life and work. His life has been situated in the different cultural and artistic contexts. His work is presented in a catalogue, and compared with the contemporary creation in germany, france, flander, holland, and italy. This threefold approach helps to show the artist's specific stylistic, as well as iconographic, characters

La these comprend deux tomes. Dans le premier, qui est le commentaire proprement dit, apres une analyse du concept de bibliographie et la justification de l'appellation sebastica, suit la presentation des 8 sections respectives de la bibliographie: histoire, sebastianisme et "quinto imperio", poesie, theatre, fiction, vulgarisation, iconographie, bibliographie. Deux annexes regroupent les "epithetes" attribues au roi, classes par ordre chronologique (annexe i) et alphabetique (annexe ii). Dans l'analyse du contenu de chaque section sont presentees les distinctions entre oeuvres principales et oeuvres secondaires et la justification de leur regroupement sous le meme titre. L'auteur donne un apercu general de la vie et du regne de d. Sebastien, ainsi que de la definition et de l'evolution du sebastianisme du portugal et au bresil comme donnee de la culture portugaise et bresilienne. Le second tome presente la bibliographie proprement dite, avec un total de 2740 fiches, des differentes langues qui se sont occupees. De cette thematique. Deux index completent la bibliographie: l'un des mots-cles, l'autre des auteurs. L'ouvrage est illustre de reproductions de frontispices de quelques oeuvres importantes citees
This work is presented in two volumes. In the first one, which is the critical analysis itself, after a study of the concept of bibliography, and a justification of the title sebastica, there follows the order of the presentation of the corresponding parts the bibliography is divided into: history, sebastianism and "quinto imperio", poetry, theatre, fiction, divulgation, iconography, bibliography. There are still two appendixes with the "epitetos" ("epithets") imputed to the king, which are ordered chronologically (annexe i) and alphabetically (annexe ii). In the analysis of the content of each part, the author took into account the distinction between the main works and the less important ones, and an explanition of why each work is included in a given section. There is also a general survey of life and reign of king sebastian; and the definition and presentation of the sebastianism in portugal and in brasil as an aspect of the portuguese and brasilian cultures. The second volume displays the bibliography itself, in the different languages, with 2740 entries. Two tables of contents, of key-words and authors, conclude the presentation of the bibliography, where some front pages of important works of the sebastica are transcribed

La basse fondamentale, représentation mentale abstraite de la note la plus basse d'un accord parfait, de septième ou de neuvième à l'état fondamental et représentée par la "note fondamentale", n'est pas une invention théorique mais un mode de pensée qui s'est élaboré collectivement et qui prend sa source dans la double réalité mélodique et harmonique de l'intervalle
The fundamental bass or abstracted mental representation from the lowest note of a triad in the root position, is represented by the fundamental note

L'objectif de ces travaux a été d'étudier la formation de composés organiques iodés lorsque des eaux contenant des matières organiques naturelles et des ions iodure sont en contact d'oxydes de manganèse (MnO2). Les oxydes de manganèse sont largement présents dans l'environnement et sont utilisés en production d'eaux de consommation comme matériau catalytique pour l'élimination du manganèse dissous. Les travaux ont été réalisés avec un oxyde de manganèse naturel et avec de la birnessite (dMnO2) synthétisée au laboratoire. Une étude cinétique a montré que les ions iodure sont oxydés en iode I2 comme espèce intermédiaire puis en ions iodate IO3- pour des pH < 7,5. L'iode et les ions iodate sont adsorbés sur les oxydes. L'iode réagit par substitution électrophile avec les matières organiques naturelles pour former des composés organiques iodés. Des composés spécifiques tels que l'iodométhane, l'iodoforme et l'acide iodoacétique ont été identifiés. L'iodoforme, formé par la réaction haloforme, est le composé majoritaire. Les oxydes de manganèse joueraient également le rôle de catalyseur en polarisant la molécule d'iode. Les composés organiques iodés possèdent une toxicité plus importante que leurs analogues chlorés et bromés et peuvent induire des problèmes organoleptiques dans les eaux traitées
Manganese dioxides (MnO2) are present in the environment and are used in water treatment for the catalytic removal of manganese. This study shows that manganese dioxide acts as a catalyst in the iodination of natural organic matter. Natural Mn product and synthetic birnessite were used. Iodide ion is oxidised to iodate ion by synthetic birnessite. Molecular iodine was analysed as reactive intermediate species in the oxidation of iodide ion into iodate ion for pH < 7. 5. Iodate ion and iodine are adsorbed on manganese oxide. In presence of natural organic matter (NOM) and iodide ion, it was shown that birnessite (dMnO2) can initiate the formation of organic iodine like iodoform, iodomethane and iodoacetic acid. Iodoform, a toxic and taste and odour compound, was the main identified iodinated organic compounds. It was postulated that manganese dioxide can promote the halogenation of organic matter at acidic pH by oxidizing iodide ion to iodine but also by polarising the elemental iodine molecule. Formation of toxic and taste and odour compounds is then expected when iodide containing natural source waters are in contact with manganese dioxide in environment and during treatment of Mn containing waters

L’intérieur des bâtiments est souvent modélisé en 3D pour diverses applications de modélisation ou de simulation. Par exemple, plusieurs méthodes permettent d’étudier l’éclairage, les transferts de chaleur, la propagation d’ondes. Ces applications nécessitent dans la plupart des cas une représentation volumique de l’environnement avec des relations d’adjacence et d’incidence entre les éléments. Malheureusement, les données correspondant au bâtiment sont en général seulement disponibles en 2D et les besoins des applications 3D varient d’une utilisation à l’autre. Pour résoudre ce problème, nous proposons une description formelle d’un ensemble de contraintes de cohérence dédiées à la modélisation d’intérieur de bâtiments. Dans cette thèse nous montrons comment cette représentation est utilisée pour : (i) reconstruire un modèle 3D à partir de plans d’architecte numériques 2D ; (ii) détecter automatiquement les incohérences géométriques, topologiques et sémantiques ; (iii) développer des opérations automatiques et semi-automatiques pour corriger les plans 2D. Toutes les contraintes de cohérence sont définies en 2D et 3D et reposent sur le modèle topologique des cartes généralisées. Ces opérations sont utilisées pour éditer les scènes 2D et 3D afin d’affiner ou de modifier les modèles. Enfin, nous expliquons comment ce modèle est utilisé pour une application de visualisation par lancé de rayons
Virtual architectural (indoor) scenes are often modelled in 3D for various types of simulation systems. For instance, some authors propose methods dedicated to lighting, heat transfer, acoustic or radio wave propagation simulations. These methods rely in most cases on a volumetric representation of the environment, with adjacency and incidence relationships. Unfortunately, many buildings data are only given by 2D plans and the 3D needs varies from one application to another. To solve these problems, we propose a formal representation of consistency constraints dedicated to building interiors and associated with a topological model. We show that such a representation can be used for : (i) reconstructing a 3D model from 2D architectural plans ; (ii) detecting automatically geometrical, topological and semantical inconsistencies ; (iii) designing automatic and semi-automatic operations to correct and enrich a 2D plan. All our constraints are homogeneously defined in 2D and 3D, implemented with generalized maps and used in modeling operations. We explain how this model can be successfully used with various ray-tracing methods

Ce travail a pour objet d'analyser la vision de l'histoire de Sébastien Franck à partir d'une étude de la Chronique publiée en 1531 et rééditée par ses soins en 1536. Le travail de compilation et les stratégies d'écriture développées par l'auteur révèlent l'influence de l'histoire sur l'évolution du savoir et des connaissances. La remise en cause des vérités d'autorité conduit à une révolution copernicienne de l'esprit : à un savoir clos se substitue une pensée ouverte qui reconnaît un potentiel de vérité dans des pensers différents. L'écriture de l'histoire, seconde révélation et pendant de l'Ecriture, se mue en quête de l'humain : à l'aune de l'histoire se dessine un idéal de fraternité et de tolérance qui constitue une étape importante d'un processus d'hominisation fondé sur la prise de contact avec des temps et des espaces différents. A ce titre, la Chronique est un " document historique " dont l'analyse représente une contribution importante à l'histoire des mentalités.

Abstract At the beginning of the eighteenth century, Sebastien le Prestre, the marquis de Vauban, reintroduced a three-dimensional military architecture to the West; his heavily armed tower bastions and enclosed casements were designed as protection against explosive mortar bombs and, especially, “ricochet fire.” Ricocheting was a technique that Vauban had also invented, whereby round shot was lobbed at low velocity into open bastions and bounced about, thus dismantling and mangling both guns and defenders.

The lesson opens with a detailed essay on Bach and rhetoric, with reference to Martin Luther, Bach’s spiritual and theological master, the Quadrivium, Musica Theoretica, Musica Practica, Musica Poetica, and Quintilian. The importance of rhetoric in the Presto is emphasized: by playing it through slowly “in the manner of a discourse” we can begin to grasp the complexity of the writing, the ever-shifting harmonies, the ambiguities of meter (duple and triple), the inner rhythms and the fifteen different patterns of slurs. Sources advise us to decide on the tempo from the content of the piece rather than merely from the marking. There are exercises on breaking away from the “moto perpetuo” style of playing, on highlighting and expressing the essence of the intervals. and on varying the articulation. There is an attempt to explain the alternating long and short bar lines and a final piece of advice concerning slow practice.

In his Lives, Giorgio Vasari mentions many artists who were talented at music when they were young, prominently Giorgione and Sebastiano del Piombo. Benvenuto Cellini resisted his father's pressure to choose music. Why? How rewarding was a musical profession in Renaissance Italy? It could be very lucrative, both for town musicians such as Cellini's father and for castratos. Moonlighting for banquets, dances, even spying, could bring in additional income. For gentlemen, music was a necessary social grace; they had private tutors, such as Silvestro Ganassi dal Fontego, who was himself a painter as well as a printer. Amateurs could learn from cathedral choirmasters, who were often music theorists, the pinnacle of the profession. The theorist Pietro Aaron, choirmaster at Imola Cathedral, then tutor to the sons of Sebastian Michiel, Grand Prior of the Knights of St John of Jerusalem in Venice, had a wide acquaintance among humanists, noblemen and other musicians, and his letters open a window on the life of a musician. Among his many professions, the writer Antonfrancesco Doni counted music; a madrigal he wrote in 1560 is included in an appendix. The ability to improvise verses and music was much prized, ranging from star performers such as Serafino Aquilano to amateurs such as Niccolò Machiavelli. Portraits of musicians are discussed; they offer important evidence but are difficult to interpret. The theorist Lodovico Zacconi concluded in 1592 that being a musician was not only an honourable and lucrative profession but an enjoyable one.

Abstract Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is important to the petroleum industry mostly because it is used to improve oil recovery. Miscible gas flooding, a type of EOR process that is proven and economically viable can significantly increase oil recovery from reservoirs. In this study, the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) in gas floods for different gases were computed using empirical correlations (Glaso correlation for hydrocarbon gas injection, Emera, Yuan et al and Glaso correlation for pure carbon dioxide gas injection, Sebastin and Yuan correlation for impure carbon dioxide correlations and Glaso, Firoozabadi and Aziz correlations for nitrogen gas injection). An efficient computer program was developed using visual basic programing language. Employing its highly versatile features, friendly graphical user interface (GUI) forms were designed and robust codes were developed. Validation was done for the program and results showed that the software which was developed had acceptable level of accuracy, was fast and effective. The study provides a new and cost effective way of checking for MMP which will enhance the process of screening gas flooding processes for the reservoir.

INTRODUCTION In December 2019, following a request from MSF’s intersectional working group for mental health and psychosocial services, MSF’s telemedicine (TM) services team implemented a full-time psychiatrist based in Amman, Jordan. This was in the context of a global shortage of mental health (MH) clinicians, and rapidly increasing demand for MSF to provide MH care. This specialist’s main responsibility was to deliver psychiatric training and supervision using WHO’s MH global action plan intervention guide (mhGAP-IG). Prior to implementation, psychiatric training was delivered face-to-face by national and international psychiatrists in the field, or if this was not operationally possible, patients with MH conditions went untreated or were managed with advice provided by distance. We hoped that intervention would improve MSF clinician capacity, therefore increasing access to quality care for patients with MH conditions across all projects and in particular those settings where it had not previously been feasible. METHODS Intervention impact was assessed by analysing the total number of countries and projects where support was provided, the number of clinicians trained, and the number of supervision sessions provided. Analysis was supplemented through analysis of 15 structured interviews with stakeholders, including clinicians (8), activity managers (4), section mental health advisors (4) and the TM psychiatrist. ETHICS This work met the requirements for exemption from MSF Ethics Review Board review, and was conducted with permission from Clair Mills, former Medical Director, Operational Centre Paris, MSF, and Sebastien Spenser, former Medical Director, Operational Centre Brussels, MSF. RESULTS A total of 13 MSF projects across eight countries received TM support in 2020. mhGAP-IG training was provided online to 39 clinicians, followed by 123 supervision sessions. Structured interviews demonstrated delivery of mhGAP-IG training online in MSF projects, with adherence to MSF guidelines. Improved capacity building was reported, with clinicians observed to have greater clinical confidence and being considered more likely to provide MH assessment and care. Impact in terms of increased volume of patient care was difficult to analyse, partly related to restrictions and activity alterations occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION Ongoing challenges requiring future consideration include ensuring adequate information technology infrastructure (internet connection, access to adequate communication equipment, broader use of secure platforms such as Siilo) and standardised approaches to supervision. Future analyses could consider impact on quality of care, for example by measuring secondary outcomes such as MH activity and default rates. This project continues; we propose it comprises an innovative way to improve access to patient care and to provide clinician learning and development. CONFLICTS OF INTEREST None declared.

Banco de la República’s main goal is to preserve the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy that is intended to stabilize output and employment at long-term sustainable levels. Properly meeting the goal assigned to the Bank by the 1991 Constitution critically depends on preserving financial stability. This is understood to be a general condition in which the financial system evaluates and manages the financial risks in a way that facilitates the suitable performance of the economy and efficient allocation of resources while, at the same time, it is able to absorb, dissipate, and mitigate the appearance of risks that may arise as a result of adverse events. This Financial Stability Report meets the goal of giving Banco de la República’s diagnosis of the financial system’s and its debtors’ recent performance as well as of the main risks and vulnerabilities that could affect the stability of the Colombian economy. The Report is intended to inform the public and the participants in the financial markets about the trends and risks affecting the system and it also intends to promote public debate on this subject. The results presented here also serve as a basis for the monetary authority to assess the effects and risks of monetary policy at the current situation and to adopt measures under its purview to promote financial stability. The analysis presented in this edition of the Report leads to the conclusion that there has been a strong credit trend in Colombia in the last few months that is consistent with the strength of economic activity. Credit continues to grow (in all its categories and especially in consumer loans) while past-due and risky loans continue to decline for the aggregate portfolio. In general terms, the favorable performance of credit establishments (CIs) in a context of tighter financial conditions and greater volatility in financial markets continues to reflect the soundness and stability of the Colombian financial system. In spite of exhibiting a recent decline, CIs are keeping liquidity and capital adequacy indicators well above the regulatory minimums. Its aggregate profitability, in turn, returned to the levels seen before the pandemic shock and showed a positive performance in financial intermediation activities. With respect to non-bank financial institutions, the recent volatility of the financial markets has led to reductions in their level of assets due to the devaluations in their investment portfolios. This has been reflected mainly in reduced profitability for Trust Companies (TC) and Pension Fund Managers (PFM). In line with the positive performance of economic activity in 2021 and so far in 2022, the rapid surge in household loans in Colombia, especially consumer loans together with the high levels of household debt to disposable income ratio is still considered a source of vulnerability for the stability of the Colombian financial system just as it was in the previous edition of this Report (see section 2.2.2). In addition, given the large current account deficit and the foreign financing needs, the exposure of the Colombian economy and financial institutions to changes in financial conditions persists in a global environment of high uncertainty. In any case, the results presented in this Report indicate that the financial system has shown to be resilient to the materialization of adverse scenarios (see Chapter 3). In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the financial stability outlook at this juncture and will make the necessary decisions to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the sufficient flow of credit and liquidity resources, and promote the smooth functioning of the payment system. Box 1: Insurance Industry Performance During the Covid-19 Pandemic - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Gualtero-Briceño, Daniela and Pirateque-Niño, Javier Eliecer Box 2: Recent Trends in the Financial Position of Households - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Gómez-Molina, Andrés Camilo; Mariño-Martínez, Juan Sebastián and Osorio-Rodríguez, Daniel Box 3: A Description of the Foreign Exchange Risk of Real Sector Firms in Colombia in 2021 - Financial Stability Report, Second Half of 2022. Carmona-Duarte, Alvaro; Martinez-Osorio, Adrian and Niño-Cuervo, Jorge Jorge Niño

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño