Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Sensibility Theory'

In this thesis I present and defend an interpretation of Kant’s theory of experience as it stands from the viewpoint of his empirical realism. My central contention is that Kant’s is a conception of everyday experience, a kind of immediate phenomenological awareness as of empirical objects, and although he takes this to be representational, it cannot itself amount to empirical knowledge because it can be non-veridical, because in such experience it is possible to misrepresent the world. I outline my view in an extended introduction. In Part I I offer a novel interpretation of Kant’s doctrine of sensibility and sensation. Utilizing a data-processor schematic as an explanatory framework, I give an account of how outer sense, as a collection of sensory capacities, is causally affected by empirical objects to produce bodily state sensations that naturally encode information about those objects. This information is then processed through inner sense to present to the understanding a manifold of mental state sensations that similarly encode information. I also give accounts of how the reproductive imagination operates in hallucination to produce sensible manifolds in lieu of current causal affection, and of the restricted role that consciousness plays at this low level of cognitive function. In Part II I turn to the role of the understanding in experience. I offer a two-stage model of conceptual synthesis and explain how Kant’s theory of experience is a unique blend of conceptualist and non-conceptualist elements. I show that it explains how our experience can provide us with reasons for belief while at the same time accounting for the fact that experience is what anchors us to the world. Finally, I return to non-veridical experience. I confront recent naïve realist readings of Kant and argue that, for Kant, the possibility of non-veridicality is built into the very nature of the human mind and the way it relates to the world.

Money factors into the lives of all of Jane Austen’s heroines and, in many of her novels, the heroines struggle on the marriage market. Austen concludes every one of her novels with the marriage of the heroine and, while Austen made the choice to become a writer instead of marrying, she is consequently very mindful of what marriage means for each of her heroines and who they ultimately choose for a husband. Given that economics is the social science concerned with how individuals and institutions make optimal choices under conditions of scarcity, knowledge of some of the basic concepts in economics and an understanding of the economic theory behind how people make choices can enhance readings of Sense and Sensibility and Pride and Prejudice. Through a survey of some of the existing economic literature on marriage, I demonstrate how one might apply economic theory to these two novels. Subsequently, I explore how there are limits on how far the economics of marriage can be extended to analyze Austen’s novels, but ultimately conclude that the theory presented nevertheless helps explain how many of the characters choose their future partner.

Orientadores: Veronica Andrea Gonzales-Lopez, Laura Leticia Ramos Rifo<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matematica, Estatistica e Computação Cientifica<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T04:30:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SantosJunior_JamesDeanOliveirados_M.pdf: 1844173 bytes, checksum: 122644f8bc0dedaaa7d7633d9b25eb9c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006<br>Resumo: Em inferência bayesiana lidamos com informações provenientes dos dados e com informações a priori. Eventualmente, um ou mais outliers podem causar um conflito entre as fontes de informação. Basica!llente, resolver um conflito entre as fontes de informações implica em encontrar um conjunto de restrições tais que uma das fontes domine, em certo sentido, as demais. Têm-se utilizado na literatura distribuições amplamente aceitas como sendo de cauda pesada para este fim. Neste trabalho, mostramos as relações existentes entre alguns resultados da teoria de conflitos e as distribuições de caudas pesadas. Também mostramos como podemos resolver conflitos no caso locação utilizando modelos subexponenciais e como utilizar a medida credence para resolver problemas no caso escala<br>Abstract: In bayesian inference we deal with information proceeding from the data and prior information. Eventually, one ar more outliers can cause a conflict between the sources information. Basically, to decide a conflict between the sources of information implies in finding a set of restrictions such that one of the sources dominates, in certain sense, the outher. Widely distributions have been used in literature as being of heavy tailed for this end. In this work, we show the relations between some results of the theory of conflicts and the heavy tailed distributions. Also we show how we can decide a conflicts in the location case using subexponential models and how to use the measure credence to decide problems in the scale case<br>Mestrado<br>Inferencia Bayesiana<br>Mestre em Estatística

Submitted by Maike Costa (maiksebas@gmail.com) on 2017-09-21T12:18:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1831840 bytes, checksum: dc86a1490bdd642eb9e4bf0010e7d5ec (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-21T12:18:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1831840 bytes, checksum: dc86a1490bdd642eb9e4bf0010e7d5ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-31<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES<br>The main objectives of the actual research consist in showing that there is a sense theory developed by Plato from what he considered mistaken in the theses of previous thinkers like Protagoras and Heraclitus, that were considered like truths, bringing in the Theaetetus a detailed evaluation on aspects of sensitivity and knowledge. This sense theory is presented and maintained in the course of the work, so that we can include it in the process towards knowledge, which will be another important point in our investigation. We must, at a first moment, show the authenticity of the sensory theory developed in what we will call the Secret Doctrine, so that later, in the final chapter, we fit such theory into the process toward knowledge. By properly developing these two points, we will conclude that the sensibility can not be discarded in the cognitive process necessary to approach the truth. For this, we will dialogue directly with the work in question to emphasize the necessary aspects of the sense theory of the Secret Doctrine in order to show that it’s complexity is not compatible with the thinking of the nominee thinkers. Detailed aspects, such as slow movements as powers of becoming, rapid movements as pair-formers, sensation quality, momentaneity of sensation, unrepeatability and particularity evident in each of them will be studied in order to highlight the complexity presented by Plato when describing nature of sensitivity. Having shown such complexity, we shall set out for the appointee's own thinkers, namely Protagoras, Heraclitus and Parmenides, and the fragments of his writings which have come down to us, and we shall evaluate the content therein to see if there were the aspects presented by Plato when he explained the functionality of sensible things. Our intention in this part of the research will be to present that there was no such complex investigation of perception and knowledge in the pre-socratics. With this, we will be ready to complete the first stage of the research, granting the sense theory of the Secret Doctrine to Plato himself. Having achieved this success, the research will turn to the phases of the process toward knowledge, examining in it the function of aisthesis. Aisthesis will have refined and become two distinct things in the process, namely, pure sensation and perception, from which the second is always accompanied by discourse and consequently judgment, and this is due to the presence of psyché in this activity. The psyché will be shown in the Theaetetus present in the most primitive sensations and also responsible for the highest reasonings, having begun these calculations and analyzes through the senses, progressing in such a way as to obtain simple results such as whiteness, heat, and also obtaining more complex results Like the beautiful, the different, the equal, until the reaching of entity, which is common to everything and thus will approach the truth. We will suggest a way of knowing that it is not the Forms, given the absence of these in the work, and also based on Franco Trabattoni, which offers us a different view on the possibility of there being three types of knowledge in Plato's thinking and one of them is exactly a process that begins with sensations, passes through the opinion and results in something especially articulated by the psyché. We will evaluate the condition of possibility of this type of knowledge and we will reach a conclusion that will bring us the following situation: man, not being able to discard all his cognitive capacities, and this includes the sensations, will be able to know not infallible knowledge, but what will come closest to it. The sensations, as detailed in the Theaetetus, and thought are together, indispensable tools for knowing human.<br>A presente pesquisa tem como principais objetivos mostrar que há uma teoria sensista desenvolvida por Platão a partir do que ele considerou equivocado nas teses de pensadores anteriores como Protágoras e Heráclito, que eram consideradas enquanto verdades, trazendo no Teeteto uma avaliação detalhada sobre aspectos da sensibilidade e do conhecimento. Essa teoria sensista é apresentada e mantida no decorrer da obra, de maneira que podemos inclui-la no processo em direção ao saber, que será outro ponto importante na nossa investigação. Temos que, em um momento primeiro, mostrar a autenticidade da teoria sensista desenvolvida no que chamaremos de Doutrina Secreta, para que posteriormente, no capítulo final, encaixemos tal teoria no processo em direção ao saber. Desenvolvendo devidamente esses dois pontos, concluiremos que a sensibilidade não pode ser descartada no processo cognitivo necessário para se aproximar da verdade. Para isso, iremos dialogar diretamente com a obra em questão para salientarmos os devidos aspectos da teoria sensista da Doutrina Secreta a fim de mostrar que a complexidade ali existente não é compatível com o pensamento dos pensadores de nomeada. Aspectos detalhados, tais como os movimentos lentos como potências do vir a ser, movimentos rápidos como formadores do par sensação qualidade, momentaneidade da sensação, irrepetibilidade e particularidade evidentes em cada uma delas serão estudados de maneira a destacar a complexidade apresentada por Platão quando descrevia a natureza da sensibilidade. Tendo sido mostrada tal complexidade, partiremos para os próprios pensadores de nomeada, a saber, Protágoras, Heráclito e Parmênides e os fragmentos de seus escritos que chegaram até nós, e avaliaremos o conteúdo neles inseridos para verificar se havia ali os aspectos apresentados por Platão quando este explicava a funcionalidade das coisas sensíveis. Nosso intuito nessa parte da pesquisa será mostrar que não havia nos pré-socráticos, investigação tão complexa sobre a percepção e o saber. Com isso, estaremos prontos a concluir a primeira etapa da pesquisa, concedendo a teoria sensista da Doutrina Secreta ao próprio Platão. Tendo obtido esse êxito, a pesquisa se voltará para as fases do processo em direção ao saber, examinando nele a função da aisthesis. Aisthesis terá se refinado e se tornará duas coisas distintas no processo, a saber, sensação pura e percepção, a partir da qual a segunda está sempre acompanhada de discurso e, consequentemente, julgamento, e isso se dá devido a presença da psyché nessa atividade. A psyché se mostrará no Teeteto presente nas mais primitivas sensações e também responsável pelos mais elevados raciocínios, tendo começado esses cálculos e análises por meio dos sentidos, progredindo de maneira a obter resultados simples como a brancura, o calor, e também obtendo resultados mais complexos como o belo, o diferente, o igual, até que se chegue a entidade, que é comum a tudo e assim se aproximará da verdade. Iremos sugerir uma forma de saber que não é o das Formas, dado a ausência destas na obra, e também nos baseando em Franco Trabattoni, que nos oferece uma visão diferenciada sobre a possibilidade de haver três tipos de conhecimento no pensamento de Platão e um deles se trata exatamente de um processo que começa nas sensações, passa pela opinião e resulta em algo especialmente articulado pela psyché. Avaliaremos a condição de possibilidade desse tipo de conhecimento e chegaremos a uma conclusão que nos trará a seguinte situação: o homem, não podendo se desfazer de todas as suas capacidades cognitivas, e isso inclui as sensações, estará apto a conhecer não o infalível saber, mas aquilo que mais se aproximará dele. As sensações, conforme detalhada no Teeteto, e o pensamento são juntos, ferramentas indispensáveis para conhecer humano.

Trans Cinema and its Exit Scapes offers a critical and creative intervention into cultural representations of gendered body dissidence in contemporary film. The study argues for the possibility of finding spaces of “disidentification”, so-called “exit scapes” within the films. Exit scapes disrupt the dominant cinematic regime set up for the trans character, which ties them into stories of discrimination, humiliation and violence. In Trans Cinema, for instance films such as Hedwig and the Angry Inch (2001), Transamerica (2005), Romeos (2011) and Laurence Anyways (2012), scenes of singing, dancing and dreaming allow a different form of engagement with the films. As argued here, they allow a critical re-reading and an affirmative re-imagining of trans embodiment. The aim of this study is to investigate the utopian and hopeful potential within Trans Cinema from a critical transfeminist perspective. While focusing in particular on trans entrants as “spectators” or readers, this study draws on the work of a wide range of feminist and cultural scholars, such as Sara Ahmed, Susan Stryker, José Esteban Muñoz, Trinh T. Minh-Ha, Karen Barad and Donna Haraway. The thesis etches out cinematic spatiotemporalities that unfold possibilities of utopian worlding and trans becoming through a set of conceptual innovations. By utilising a critical approach to audio-visuality and feminist film theory, the thesis re-conceptualises haptic spectatorship theory and its critique in western modernist ocularcentricism through a set of conceptual innovations. The methodological tools developed in this thesis, such as the “entrant”, the “exit scape” and “sensible cinematic intra-activity”, feature here as a multisensorial methodology for transdisciplinary transgender studies and feminist film theory as well as visual culture at large.<br>Trans Cinema and its Exit Scapes är en kritisk och kreativ intervention med fokus på kulturella representationer av kroppar som bryter mot en könsbinär ordning i samtida film. Studien argumenterar för möjligheten att hitta utrymmen för “disidentification”, så kallade “exit scapes” inom filmerna. Exit scapes stör den dominanta filmiska ordning som skapats för transkaraktären, en ordning som är förbunden med berättelser om diskriminering, förödmjukelse och våld. Inom Trans Cinema, i filmer som exempelvis Hedwig and the Angry Inch (2001), Transamerica (2005), Romeos (2011) and Laurence Anyways (2012), öppnar scener med sång, dans och drömmar upp för andra former av engagemang med filmerna. Som det argumenteras för i avhandlingen tillåter dessa ett kritiskt omformulerande av, och ett nytt affirmativt sätt att föreställa sig, transkroppslighet. Syftet med den här studien är att undersöka den utopiska och hoppfulla potential som finns inom transfilm utifrån ett kritiskt transfeministiskt perspektiv. Även om studien främst riktar sig till trans entrants som “åskådare” eller läsare, så har den en bred teoretisk bas hämtad från verk av en lång rad feministiska forskare inom kulturfältet, såsom Sara Ahmed, Susan Stryker, José Esteban Muñoz, Trinh T. Minh-Ha, Karen Barad och Donna Haraway. Denna avhandling skissar filmiska spatiotemporaliteter, vilka öppnar för möjligheter av utopiska värdsliga och transsubjektiva tillblivelser genom utvecklandet av olika teoretiska begrepp. Genom ett kritiskt förhållningssätt till audiovisualitet och feministisk filmteori, revideras och omformuleras haptisk åskådarskapsteori och dess kritik i en västerländsk okularcentrism genom olika teoretiska innovationer. De metodologiska verktygen som utvecklas i avhandlingen, såsom “the entrant”, “the exit scape” samt “sensible cinematic intra-activity” utgör här funktionen som multisensorisk metodologi för transdisciplinära transstudier, feministisk filmteori samt för visuell kultur i stort.

Submitted by Claudinei Pracidelli (cpracide@ipen.br) on 2015-03-17T10:41:16Z No. of bitstreams: 0<br>Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-17T10:41:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0<br>Tese (Doutorado em Tecnologia Nuclear)<br>IPEN/T<br>Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

The purpose of this study is to examine the role of imagination in Immanuel Kant&amp<br>#8217<br>s Critique of Pure Reason by means of a detailed textual analysis and interpretation. In my systematic reading of the Kantian text, I analyse how the power of imagination comes to the foreground of Kant&amp<br>#8217<br>s investigation into the transcendental conditions of knowledge. This is to explain the mediating function of imagination between the two distinct faculties of the subject<br>between sensibility and understanding. Imagination achieves its mediating function between sensibility and understanding through its activity of synthesis. By means of exploring the features of the activity of synthesis I attempt to display that imagination provides the ground of the unification of sensibility and understanding. The argument of this study resides in the claim that the power of imagination, through its transcendental synthesis, provides the ground of the possibility of all knowledge and experience. This is to announce imagination as the building block of Kant&amp<br>#8217<br>s Copernican Revolution that grounds the objectivity of knowledge in its subjective conditions. Therefore, the goal of this study is to display imagination as a distinctive human capacity that provides the relation of our knowledge to the objects.

Orientador: Renato Pavanello<br>Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-23T16:29:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PaucarCasas_WalterJesus_D.pdf: 11209231 bytes, checksum: ed76027cff17f4a62e9dfcff2f0e03d2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1998<br>Resumo: Neste trabalho desenvolveram-se metodologias para a obtenção de formas ótimas em sistemas vibroacústicos acoplados, via mudança de parâmetros geométricos, usando a análise de sensibilidade e ferramentas de programação não linear. As equações matriciais do problema são determinadas com o método dos elementos finitos, e expostas de forma a se tornarem dependentes dos parâmetros estruturais. Uma formulação não simétrica em deslocamento da estrutura e pressão do fluido é utilizada para descrever o sistema. Obtidas as freqüências e modos próprios para um conjunto de parâmetros, executa-se o processo de otimização usando a análise de sensibilidade modal. O objetivo é maximizar o afastamento de freqüências naturais adjacentes, ou diminuir a resposta numa região do sistema para uma faixa predefinida de freqüências de excitação, modificando para isso os parâmetros de forma. O efeito do amortecimento proporcional é incluído na modelagem. Os resultados obtidos são validados a partir de soluções numéricas disponíveis na literatura. A utilização da predição modal no processo de otimização também é analisada. A implementação da metodologia desenvolvida encontra aplicação, por exemplo, na melhora do conforto vibroacústico<br>Abstract: In this research some methodologies for obtaining optimal forms in coupled vibroacoustic problems are developed, through geometrical parameter changing, using sensitivity analysis and non linear programming tools. The matrix equations of the problem are determined through the finite element method, and then put in such a form that they become functions of the structural parameters. A non symmetrical formulation in structural displacement and tluid pressure is used to describe the system. Once the natural frequencies and modes for a set of parameters are found, the optimization process is conducted using the modal sensitivity analysis. The objective is either to maximize the gap between some adjacent natural frequencies,or to minimizethe frequency response in a specific region of the system for one set of excitation frequencies.This is done by modifying the shape parameters. The effect of proportional damping is included in the model. The results are validated with numerical solutions available in the literature. Additional results using the modal prediction in the optimization are also analyzed. The implemented methodology can be applied, for example, in the improvement of the vibroacoustic confort<br>Doutorado<br>Mecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto Mecanico<br>Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Neste trabalho discutimos a análise bayesiana em modelos TRI (Teoria da Resposta ao Item) de três parâmetros com respostas binárias e ordinais, considerando a ligação probito. Em ambos os casos usamos técnicas baseadas em MCCM (método de Monte Carlo baseado em Cadeias de Markov) para estimação dos parâmetros dos itens. No modelo com respostas binárias, consideramos dois conjuntos de dados resultantes de provas com itens de múltipla-escolha. Para esses dados, foi feito um estudo da sensibilidade à escolha de distribuições a priori, além de uma análise das estimativas a posteriori para os parâmetros dos itens: discriminação, dificuldade e probabilidade de acerto ao acaso. Um terceiro conjunto de dados foi utilizado no estudo do modelo com respostas ordinais. Estes dados são provenientes de uma disciplina básica de estatística, onde a prova contêm itens dissertativos. As respostas foram classificadas nas categorias: certa, errada ou parcialmente certa. Utilizamos o programa WinBugs para a estimação dos parâmetros do modelo binário e a função MCMCordfactanal do programa R para estimar os parâmetros do modelo ordinal. Ambos os softwares são não proprietários e gratuitos (livres).<br>In this dissertation the bayesian analysis for three parameters IRT (Item Response Theory) models with binaries and ordinals responses, considering the probit model, was discussed. For both cases, binary and ordinal, techniques based on MCCM (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) were used to estimate the items parameters. For binary response model, was considered two data sets from tests with multipla choices items. For these two data sets, a sensibility study of the priori distributions choice was considered, and also, an analyses of a posteriori estimates of the items parameters: discrimination, difficulties and guessing. A third data set is used to ilustrate the ordinal response model. This come from an elementar statistical course, where a test with open items is considered. The responses are classified in the following categories: correct, wrong or partial correct. The WinBugs software was used to estimate the parameters for the binary model and, for the ordinal model was considered the function MCMCordfactanal from R program.

O presente trabalho apresenta dois novas modelos conexionistas, baseados na teoria da adaptação ressonante (ART): Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP e Semantic ART (SMART). Descreve-se a modelagem, adaptação, implementação e validação destes, enquanto incorporados ao sistema hibrido HYCONES, para resolução de problemas de diagnostico medico em cardiopatias congênitas e nefrologia. HYCONES é uma ferramenta para a construção de sistemas especialistas híbridos que integra redes neurais com frames, assimilando as qualidades inerentes aos dois paradigmas. 0 mecanismo de frames fornece tipos construtores flexíveis para a modelagem do conhecimento do domínio, enquanto as redes neurais, representadas na versão original de HYCONES pelo modelo neural combinatório (MNC), possibilitam tanto a automação da aquisição de conhecimento, a partir de uma base de casos, quanta a implementação de aprendizado indutivo e dedutivo. A teoria da adaptação ressonante 6 caracterizada, principalmente, pela manutenção do equilíbrio entre as propriedades de plasticidade e estabilidade durante o processo de aprendizagem. ART inclui vários modelos conexionistas, tais como: Fuzzy ARTMAP, Fuzzy ART, ART 1, ART 2 e ART 3. Dentre estes, a rede neural Fuzzy ARTMAP destaca-se por possibilitar o tratamento de padr6es analógicos a partir de dois módulos ART básicos. O modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, como o pr6prio nome o diz, a uma simplificação da rede neural Fuzzy ARTMAP. Ao contrario desta, o novo modelo possibilita o tratamento de padrões analógicos, a partir de apenas um modulo ART, responsável pelo tratamento dos padrões de entrada, adicionado de uma camada, responsável pelos padrões alvo. Mesmo com apenas um modulo ART, o modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP 6 capaz de reter o mesmo nível de desempenho obtido com a rede neural Fuzzy ARTMAP pois, continua a garantir, conjuntamente, a maximização da generalização e a minimização do erro preditivo, através da execução da estratégia match-tracking. Para a construção da base de casos de cardiopatias congênitas, 66 prontuários médicos, das três cardiopatias congênitas mais freqüentes, foram extraídos do banco de dados de pacientes submetidos a cirurgia cardíaca no Instituto de Cardiologia RS (ICFUC-RS). Tais prontuários abrangem o período de janeiro de 1986 a dezembro de 1990 e reportam 22 casos de Comunicação Interatrial (CIA), 29 de Comunicação Interventricular (CIV) e 15 de Defeito Septal Atrioventricular (DSAV). Para a análise de desempenho do sistema, 33 casos adicionais, do referido período, foram extraídos aleatoriamente do banco de dados do ICFUC-RS. Destes 33 casos, 13 apresentam CIA, 10 CIV e 10 DSAV. Para a construção da base de casos de síndromes renais, 381 prontuários do banco de dados de síndromes renais da Escola Paulista de Medicina foram analisados e 58 evidencias, correspondentes a dados de hist6ria clinica e exame físico dos pacientes, foram extraídas semi-automaticamente. Do total de casos selecionados, 136 apresentam Uremia, 85 Nefrite, 100 Hipertensão e 60 Litiase. Dos 381 casos analisados, 254 foram escolhidos aleatoriamente para a composicao do conjunto de treinamento, enquanto que os demais foram utilizados para a elaboração do conjunto de testes. Para que HYCONES II fosse validado, foram construídas 46 versões da base de conhecimento hibrida (BCH) para o domínio de cardiopatias congênitas e 46 versões da BCH para o de nefrologia. Em ambos os domínios médicos as respectivas bases de conhecimento foram construídas, automaticamente, a partir das respectivas bases de casos de treinamento. Das 46 versões geradas para cada grupo, uma representa o modelo MNC e 45 os modelos ART. As versões ART dividem-se em grupos de 3: 15 versões foram formadas a partir do modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP; 15 a partir deste mesmo modelo, sem que os padrões de entrada fossem normalizados; e, finalmente, 15 para o modelo Semantic ART. Na base de testes CHD, o desempenho da versa° HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP foi semelhante ao da versa° MNC. A primeira acertou 29 dos 33 diagnósticos (87,9%), enquanto a segunda apontou corretamente 31 dos 33 diagnósticos apresentados (93,9%). Na base de testes de síndromes renais, o desempenho de HYCONES II Fuzzy ARTMAP foi superior ao da versão MNC (p < 0,05). Ambas -Simplified acertaram, respectivamente, 108 (85%) e 95 (74,8%) diagnósticos, em 127 casos submetidos. Ainda que o desempenho da versão HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP se revelasse promissor, ao se examinar o conteúdo das redes geradas por este modelo, pode-se observar que estas divergiam completamente daquelas obtidas pelo MNC. As redes que levaram a conclusão diagnostica, na versão HYCONES - MNC, possuíam conteúdo praticamente igual aos grafos de conhecimento, elicitados de especialistas em cardiopatias congênitas. JA, as redes ativadas na versa° HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, além de representarem numero bem major de evidencias que as redes MNC, a grande maioria destas ultimas representam a negação do padrão de entrada. Este fato deve-se a um processo de normalização, inerente ao modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, no qual cada padrão de entrada e duplicado. Nesta duplicação, são representadas as evidências presentes em cada caso e, ao mesmo tempo, complementarmente, as evidencias ausentes, em relação ao total geral das mesmas na base de casos. Esta codificação inviabiliza o mecanismo de explanação do sistema HYCONES, pois, na área módica, os diagnósticos costumam ser feitos a partir de um conjunto de evidencias presentes e, não, pela ausência delas. Tentou-se, então, melhorar o conteúdo semântico das redes Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP. Para tal, o processo de normalização ou codificação complementar da implementação do modelo foi retirado, validando-o novamente, contra o mesma base de testes. Na base de testes CHD, o desempenho de HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, sem a codificação complementar, foi inferior ao da versão MNC (p < 0,05). A primeira acertou 25 dos 33 diagnósticos (75,8%), enquanto a segunda apontou corretamente 31 dos mesmos (93,9%). Na base de testes renais, o desempenho da versa° HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, sem a codificação complementar, foi semelhante ao da versa° MNC. Dos 127 casos apresentados, a primeira acertou 98 diagn6sticos (77,2%), contra 95 da segunda (74,8%). Constatou-se, ainda, que as categorias de reconhecimento formadas pelo modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP continuavam a apresentar diferenças marcantes quanto ao seu conteúdo, quando comparadas as redes MNC ou aos grafos de conhecimento elicitados de especialistas. O modelo Semantic ART foi, então, proposto, na tentativa de se melhorar o conteúdo semantic° das redes ART. Modificou-se, então, o algoritmo de aprendizado do modelo Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, introduzindo-se o mecanismo de aprendizado indutivo do modelo MNC, i.e., o algoritmo de punições e recompensas, associado ao de poda e normalização. Nova validação com a mesma base de testes foi realizada. Para a base de testes de CHD, o desempenho de HYCONES II - SMART foi semelhante ao da versão Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP e da versão MNC. A primeira e a segunda acertaram 29 dos 33 diagnósticos (87,9%), enquanto a versão MNC apontou corretamente 31 dos 33 diagnósticos apresentados (93,9%). Na base de testes de síndromes renais, o desempenho de HYCONES II - SMART foi superior ao da versão MNC (p < 0,05) e igual ao da versão Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP. A primeira e a Ultima acertaram 108 dos 127 diagnósticos (85%), enquanto a segunda apontou corretamente 95 dos mesmos (74,8%). Desta feita, observou-se que as redes neurais geradas por HYCONES II - SMART eram semelhantes em conteúdo as redes MNC e aos grafos de conhecimento elicitados de múltiplos especialistas. As principais contribuições desta dissertação são: o projeto, implementação e validação dos modelos Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP e SMART. Destaca-se, porem, o modelo SMART, que apresentou major valor semântico nas categorias de reconhecimento do que o observado nos modelos ART convencionais, graças a incorporação dos conceitos de especificidade e relevância. Esta dissertação, entretanto, representa não só a modelagem e validação de dois novos modelos neurais, mas sim, o enriquecimento do sistema HYCONES, a partir da continuação de dissertação de mestrado previamente defendida. A partir do presente trabalho, portanto, é dada a possibilidade de escolha, ao engenheiro de conhecimento, de um entre três modelos neurais: o MNC, o Semantic ART e o Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP que, sem exceção, apresentam Born desempenho. Os dois primeiros destacam-se, contudo, por suportarem semanticamente o contexto.<br>This dissertation presents two new connectionist models based on the adaptive resonance theory (ART): Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP and Semantic ART (SMART). The modeling, adaptation, implementation and validation of these models are described, in their association to HYCONES, a hybrid connectionist expert system to solve classification problems. HYCONES integrates the knowledge representation mechanism of frames with neural networks, incorporating the inherent qualities of the two paradigms. While the frames mechanism provides flexible constructs for modeling the domain knowledge, neural networks, implemented in HYCONES' first version by the combinatorial neuron model (CNM), provide the means for automatic knowledge acquisition from a case database, enabling, as well, the implementation of deductive and inductive learning. The Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) deals with a system involving selfstabilizing input patterns into recognition categories, while maintaining a balance between the properties of plasticity and stability. ART includes a series of different connectionist models: Fuzzy ARTMAP, Fuzzy ART, ART 1, ART 2, and ART 3. Among them, the Fuzzy ARTMAP one stands out for being capable of learning analogical patterns, using two basic ART modules. The Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model is a simplification of the Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network. Constrating the first model, the new one is capable of learning analogical patterns using only one ART module. This module is responsible for the categorization of the input patterns. However, it has one more layer, which is responsible for receiving and propagating the target patterns through the network. The presence of a single ART module does not hamper the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model. The same performance levels are attained when the latter one runs without the second ART module. This is certified by the match-tracking strategy, that conjointly maximizes generalization and minimizes predictive error. Two medical domains were chosen to validate HYCONES performance: congenital heart diseases (CHD) and renal syndromes. To build up the CHD case base, 66 medical records were extracted from the cardiac surgery database of the Institute of Cardiology RS (ICFUC-RS). These records cover the period from January 1986 to December 1990 and describe 22 cases of Atrial Septal Defect (ASD), 29 of Ventriculal Septal Defect (VSD), and 15 of Atrial- Ventricular Septa! Defect (AVSD), the three most frequent congenital heart diseases. For validation purposes, 33 additional cases, from the same database and period mentioned above, were also extracted. From these cases, 13 report ASD, 10 VSD and 10 AVSD. To build the renal syndromes case base, 381 medical records from the database of the Escola Paulista de Medicina were analyzed and 58 evidences, covering the patients' clinical history and physical examination data, were semiautomatically extracted. From the total number of selected cases, 136 exhibit Uremia, 85 Nephritis, 100 Hypertension, and 60 Calculosis. From the 381 cases analyzed, 245 were randomically chosen to build the training set, while the remaining ones were used to build the testing set. To validate HYCONES II, 46 versions of the hybrid knowledge base (HKB) with congenital heart diseases were built; for the renal domain, another set of 46 HKB versions were constructed. For both medical domains, the HKBs were automatically generated from the training databases. From these 46 versions, one operates with the CNM model and the other 45 deals with two ART models. These ART versions are divided in three groups: 15 versions were built using the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model; 15 used the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model without the normalization of the input patterns, and 15 used the Semantic ART model. HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP and HYCONES - CNM performed similarly for the CH D domain. The first one pointed out correctly to 29 of the 33 testing cases (87,9%), while the second one indicated correctly 31 of the same cases (93,9%). In the renal syndromes domain, however, the performance of HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP was superior to the one exhibited by CNM (p < 0,05). Both versions pointed out correctly, respectively, 108 (85%) and 95 (74.8%) diagnoses of the 127 testing cases presented to the system. HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, therefore, displayed a satisfactory performance. However, the semantic contents of the neural nets it generated were completely different from the ones stemming from the CNM version. The networks that pointed out the final diagnosis in HYCONES - CNM were very similar to the knowledge graphs elicited from experts in congenital heart diseases. On the other hand, the networks activated in HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP operated with far more evidences than the CNM version. Besides this quantitative difference, there was a striking qualitative discrepancy among these two models. The Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP version, even though pointing out to the correct diagnoses, used evidences that represented the complementary coding of the input pattern. This coding, inherent to the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model, duplicates the input pattern, generating a new one depicting the evidence observed (on-cell) and, at the same time, the absent evidence, in relation to the total evidence employed to represent the input cases (off-cell). This coding shuts out the HYCONES explanation mechanism, since medical doctors usually reach a diagnostic conclusion rather from a set of observed evidences than from their absence. The next step taken was to improve the semantic contents of the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP model. To achieve this, the complement coding process was removed and the modified model was, then, revalidated, through the same testing sets as above described. In the CHD domain, the performance of HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, without complementary coding, proved to be inferior to the one presented by CNM (p < 0,05). The first model singled out correctly 25 out of the 33 testing cases (75,8%), while the second one singled out correctly 31 out of the same 33 cases (93,9%). In the renal syndromes domain, the performances of HYCONES II - Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, without complementary coding, and HYCONES - CNM were similar. The first pointed out correctly to 98 of the 127 testing cases (77,2%), while the second one pointed out correctly to 95 of the same cases (74.8%). However, the recognition categories formed by this modified Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP still presented quantitative and qualitative differences in their contents, when compared to the networks activated by CNM and to the knowledge graphs elicited from experts. This discrepancy, although smaller than the one observed in the original Fuzzy ARTMAP model, still restrained HYCONES explanation mechanism. The Semantic ART model (SMART) was, then, proposed. Its goal was to improve the semantic contents of ART recognition categories. To build this new model, the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP archictecture was preserved, while its learning algorithm was replaced by the CNM inductive learning mechanism (the punishments and rewards algorithm, associated with the pruning and normalization mechanisms). A new validation phase was, then, performed over the same testing sets. For the CHD domain, the perfomance comparison among SMART, Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, and CNM versions showed similar results. The first and the second versions pointed out correctly to 29 of the 33 testing cases (87,9%), while the third one singled out correctly 31 of the same testing cases (93,9%). For the renal syndromes domain, the performance of HYCONES II - SMART was superior to the one presented by the CNM version (p < 0,05), and equal to the performance presented by the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP version. SMART and Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP singled out correctly 108 of the 127 testing cases (85%), while the CNM version pointed out correctly 95 of the same 127 testing cases (74.8%). Finally, it was observed that the neural networks generated by HYCONES II - SMART had a similar content to the networks generated by CNM and to the knowledge graphs elicited from multiple experts. The main contributions of this dissertation are: the design, implementation and validation of the Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP and SMART models. The latter one, however, stands out for its learning mechanism, which provides a higher semantic value to the recognition categories, when compared to the categories formed by conventional ART models. This important enhancement is obtained by incorporating specificity and relevance concepts to ART's dynamics. This dissertation, however, represents not only the design and validation of two new connectionist models, but also, the enrichment of HYCONES. This is obtained through the continuation of a previous MSc dissertation, under the same supervision supervision. From the present work, therefore, it is given to the knowledge engineering, the choice among three different neural networks: CNM, Semantic ART and Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP, all of which, display good performance. Indeed, the first and second models, in contrast to the third, support the context in a semantic way.

Cette thèse est une contribution à la modélisation imbriquée de systèmes complexes. Elle propose une méthodologie globale pour quantifier les incertitudes et leurs origines dans une chaîne de calcul formée par plusieurs modèles pouvant être reliés les uns aux autres de façon complexe. Ce travail est organisé selon trois axes. D'abord, la structure dedépendance des paramètres du modèle, induite par la modélisation imbriquée, est modélisée de façon rigoureuse grâce à la théorie des copules. Puis, deux méthodes d'analyse de sensibilité adaptées aux modèles à paramètres d'entrée corrélés sont présentées : l'une est basée sur l'analyse de la distribution de la réponse du modèle, l'autre sur la décomposition de la covariance. Enfin, un cadre de travail inspiré de la théorie des graphes est proposé pour la description de l'imbrication des modèles. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à des exemples industriels d'envergure : un modèle multiéchelles de calcul des propriétés mécaniques du béton par une méthode d'homogénéisation et un modèle multiphysique de calcul de dommage sur la culasse d'un moteur diesel. Les résultats obtenus fournissent des indications importantes pour une amélioration significative de la performance d'une structure.

On étudie l'effet de 9 antibiotiques sur 91 souches de Escherichia Coli mesuré en CMI (concentration minimale inhibitrice) et en diamètres. A l'aide d'une ACP (Analyse en composantes principales) et d'une CAH (classification hiérarchique ascendante) on met en évidence 4 classes d'Escheria Coli qui correspondent à des phénotypes connus. On propose ensuite une étude de la sensibilité d'une telle classification à petites perturbations des données, modélisées par des mouvements browniens indépendants. On obtient les équations différentielles stochastiques satisfaites par les valeurs propres et les vecteurs propres des matrices des covariances et des corrélatons empiriques. On montre notamment que les valeurs propres de la matrice des covariances empiriques se comportent comme des carrés de processus de Bessel soumis à des forces de répulsion leur interdisant toute collision. Enfin on simule ces perturbations et on étudie empiriquement la robustesse de la procédure<br>We study how 91 bacterial strains of Eschreichia Coli are ttacked by 9 antibiotics. The measurements are given by MIC (Minimal inhibition concentration) and by diameters. With the help of PCA (Principl component analysis) and HAC ( Hierarchical ascendent classification) we find four classes which correspond with four known phenotypes. Then we study the sensibility of such classification to little perturbations of data modalised by independant brownian notions. We obtain stochastic differential equatons satisfied by eigenvalues and eigen vectors of empirical covariance and correlation matrices. Morever we show that the eigenvalues of the empirical covariance matrices behave as squares of Bessel processes subject to repulsion forces excluding any collision. Then we simulate these perturbations and study the robustess of such a procedure

Les modèles mathématiques ont pour but de décrire le comportement d'un système. Bien souvent, cette description est imparfaite, notamment en raison des incertitudes sur les paramètres qui définissent le modèle. Dans le contexte de la modélisation des fluides géophysiques, ces paramètres peuvent être par exemple la géométrie du domaine, l'état initial, le forçage par le vent, ou les coefficients de frottement ou de viscosité. L'objet de l'analyse de sensibilité est de mesurer l'impact de l'incertitude attachée à chaque paramètre d'entrée sur la solution du modèle, et, plus particulièrement, identifier les paramètres (ou groupes de paramètres) og sensibles fg. Parmi les différentes méthodes d'analyse de sensibilité, nous privilégierons la méthode reposant sur le calcul des indices de sensibilité de Sobol. Le calcul numérique de ces indices de Sobol nécessite l'obtention des solutions numériques du modèle pour un grand nombre d'instances des paramètres d'entrée. Cependant, dans de nombreux contextes, dont celui des modèles géophysiques, chaque lancement du modèle peut nécessiter un temps de calcul important, ce qui rend inenvisageable, ou tout au moins peu pratique, d'effectuer le nombre de lancements suffisant pour estimer les indices de Sobol avec la précision désirée. Ceci amène à remplacer le modèle initial par un emph{métamodèle} (aussi appelé emph{surface de réponse} ou emph{modèle de substitution}). Il s'agit d'un modèle approchant le modèle numérique de départ, qui nécessite un temps de calcul par lancement nettement diminué par rapport au modèle original. Cette thèse se centre sur l'utilisation d'un métamodèle dans le cadre du calcul des indices de Sobol, plus particulièrement sur la quantification de l'impact du remplacement du modèle par un métamodèle en terme d'erreur d'estimation des indices de Sobol. Nous nous intéressons également à une méthode de construction d'un métamodèle efficace et rigoureux pouvant être utilisé dans le contexte géophysique.

The question of homoerotic sensibility is, in the purpose of this thesis, a matter of visual language connected to the portrayal of male bodies. By identifying this sensibility throughout the western art canon the essay seeks to understand its origins, development and function in relation to expressions of power. With the introduction of theorists such as Alois Riegl, Laura Mulvey, Abigail Solomon-Godeau and Raewyn Connell, the aim is to deconstruct homosexual masculinity. Adapting formal analysis and parts of visual semiotics, the focus lies on the visual expression of power through the homoerotic gaze, and asks what consequences it has in forming homosexual identity. Greek antiquity is home not only to the ideals that foster western art history, but is also where we find early examples of same-sex affection being portrayed in the arts. Hence classical antiquity is so important for the homoerotic: whenever the classical language of style is popular throughout history, we are sure to find homoerotic sensibility. For reasons mentioned, the main periods analyzed are the Italian Renaissance, the French Neoclassicism and then, naturally the late 20th century onwards as this is the period of gay liberation and modern homosexual identity.  By identifying classical acceptance of homosexual relations only in the form of a clear social hierarchy, we soon discover how homosexuality has appropriated the idea of binary difference within its masculinity throughout history. Accepting relationships only between erastes and eromenos, or man and ephebe, homosexuality is forced to exist only on the terms of difference of power. With classical ideals, these tendencies are recurring in the visual representation of male homosexuality, and becomes a big part of the liberation and forming of a modern identity in the late twentieth century. As a result of objectification of the male body, in combination with idealized and sexualized power, modern gay culture has in many ways embraced a destructive culture shaped by misogynist ideas of hegemonic culture, where sexual violence exists, but is not spoken of.

Dans de nombreuses disciplines, un système complexe est modélisé par une fonction boîte noire dont le but est de simuler le comportement du système réel. Le système est donc représenté par un modèle entrée-sortie, i.e, une relation entre la sortie Y (ce que l'on observe sur le système) et un ensemble de paramètres extérieurs Xi (représentant typiquement des variables physiques). Ces paramètres sont usuellement supposés aléatoires pour prendre en compte les incertitudes phénoménologiques inhérentes au système. L'analyse de sensibilité globale joue alors un rôle majeur dans la gestion de ces incertitudes et dans la compréhension du comportement du système. Cette étude repose sur l'estimation de mesures d'importance dont le rôle est d'identifier et de classifier les différentes entrées en fonction de leur influence sur la sortie du modèle. Les indices de Sobol, dont l'objectif est de quantifier la contribution d'une variable d'entrée (ou d'un groupe de variables) à la variance de la sortie, figurent parmi les mesures d'importance les plus considérées. Néanmoins, la variance est une représentation potentiellement restrictive de la variabilité du modèle de sortie. Le sujet central de cette thèse porte sur une méthode alternative, introduite par Emanuele Borgonovo, et qui est basée sur l'analyse de l'ensemble de la distribution de sortie. Les mesures d'importance de Borgonovo admettent des propriétés très utiles en pratique qui justifient leur récent gain d'intérêt, mais leur estimation constitue un problème complexe. En effet, la définition initiale des indices de Borgonovo fait intervenir les densités inconditionnelles et conditionnelles de la sortie du modèle, malheureusement inconnues en pratique. Dès lors, les premières méthodes proposées menaient à un budget de simulation élevé, la fonction boite noire pouvant être très coûteuse à évaluer. La première contribution de cette thèse consiste à proposer de nouvelles méthodologies pour estimer les mesures d'importance de Borgonovo du premier ordre, i.e, les indices mesurant l'influence de la sortie Y relativement à une entrée Xi scalaire. Dans un premier temps, nous choisissons d'adopter la réinterprétation des indices de Borgonovo en terme de mesure de dépendance, i.e, comme une distance entre la densité jointe de Xi et Y et la distribution produit. En outre, nous développons une procédure d'estimation combinant échantillonnage préférentiel et approximation par noyau gaussien de la densité de sortie et de la densité jointe. Cette approche permet de calculer l'ensemble des indices de Borgonovo d'ordre 1, et ce, avec un faible budget de simulation indépendant de la dimension du modèle. Cependant, l'utilisation de l'estimation par noyau gaussien peut fournir des estimations imprécises dans le cas des distributions à queue lourde. Pour pallier ce problème, nous nous appuyons dans un second temps sur une autre définition des indices de Borgonovo reposant sur le formalisme des copules<br>In many disciplines, a complex system is modeled by a black box function whose purpose is to mimic the real system behavior. Then, the system is represented by an input-output model, i.e, a relationship between the output Y (the observation made on the system) and a set of external parameters Xi (typically representing physical variables). These parameters are usually assumed to be random in order to take phenomenological uncertainties into account. Then, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays a crucial role in the handling of these uncertainties and in the understanding of the system behavior. This study is based on the estimation of importance measures which aim at identifying and ranking the different inputs with respect to their influence on the model output. Variance-based sensitivity indices are one of the most widely used GSA measures. They are based on Sobol's indices which express the share of variance of the output that is due to a given input or input combination. However, by definition they only study the impact on the second-order moment of the output which may a restrictive representation of the whole output distribution. The central subject of this thesis is an alternative method, introduced by Emanuele Borgonovo, which is based on the analysis of the whole output distribution. Borgonovo's importance measures present very convenient properties that justify their recent gain of interest, but their estimation is a challenging task. Indeed, the initial definition of the Borgonovo's indices involves the unconditional and conditional densities of the model output, which are unfortunately unknown in practice. Thus, the first proposed methods led to a high computational burden especially since the black box function may be very costly-to-evaluate. The first contribution of this thesis consists in proposing new methodologies for estimating first order Borgonovo importance measures which quantify the influence of the output Y relatively to a scalar input Xi. First, we choose to adopt the reinterpretation of the Borgonovo indices in term of measure of dependence, i.e, as a distance between the joint density of Xi and Y and the product distribution. In addition, we develop an estimation procedure combining an importance sampling procedure and Gaussian kernel approximation of the output density and the joint density. This approach allows the computation of all first order Borgonovo with a low budget simulation, independent to the model dimension. However, the use of Gaussian kernel estimation may provide inaccurate estimates for heavy tail distributions. To overcome this problem, we consider an alternative definition of the Borgonovo indices based on the copula formalism

La simulation neutronique des réacteurs nucléaires suppose la connaissance de l'interaction neutron noyau (sections efficaces, nombres et spectres des neutrons de fission) pour les quelques dizaines de noyaux présents dans le réacteur sur une douzaine d'ordres de grandeur d'énergie des neutrons. Le développement d'un nucléaire durable impose de nouvelles contraintes aux réacteurs du futur : l'optimisation de l'utilisation de la matière première nécessite la régénération des noyaux fissiles et la gestion des déchets suppose leur transmutation. Les réacteurs proposés permettant d'atteindre ces objectifs (génération IV et ADS) sont chargés de combustibles nouveaux (thorium et actinides lourds) et fonctionnent avec des spectres neutroniques pour lesquels les données nucléaires ne bénéficient pas des 50 années de l'expérience industrielle. Après leur validation sur un réacteur expérimental dans le cadre d'un exercice international, nous appliquons des outils classiques de physique de réacteurs en combinaison avec les incertitudes sur les données de base disponibles pour calculer l'incertitude sur la criticité et le coefficient de température d'un réacteur à sel fondu au thorium. De plus, une réflexion sur les taux de réactions importants pour le cycle a l'équilibre donne une estimation de l'efficacité des différentes stratégies de retraitement en ligne du combustible et les contributions de ces taux de réactions à l'incertitude sur la régénération et donc l'impact de ces incertitudes sur le dimensionnement de l'usine de retraitement. Nous pouvons alors lister les données à améliorer prioritairement pour améliorer la précision des calculs.

This thesis is devoted to the study of the applications of the error theory using Dirichlet forms. Our work is split into three parts. The first one deals with the models described by stochastic differential equations. After a short technical chapter, an innovative model for order books is proposed. We assume that the bid-ask spread is not an imperfection, but an intrinsic property of exchange markets instead. The uncertainty is carried by the Brownian motion guiding the asset. We find that spread evolutions can be evaluated using closed formulae and we estimate the impact of the underlying uncertainty on the related contingent claims. Afterwards, we deal with the PBS model, a new model to price European options. The seminal idea is to distinguish the market volatility with respect to the parameter used by traders for hedging. We assume the former constant, while the latter volatility being an erroneous subjective estimation of the former. We prove that this model anticipates a bid-ask spread and a smiled implied volatility curve. Major properties of this model are the existence of closed formulae for prices, the impact of the underlying drift and an efficient calibration strategy. The second part deals with the models described by partial differential equations. Linear and non-linear PDEs are examined separately. In the first case, we show some interesting relations between the error and wavelets theories. When non-linear PDEs are concerned, we study the sensitivity of the solution using error theory. Except when exact solution exists, two possible approaches are detailed: first, we analyze the sensitivity obtained by taking "derivatives" of the discrete governing equations. Then, we study the PDEs solved by the sensitivity of the theoretical solutions. In both cases, we show that sharp and bias solve linear PDE depending on the solution of the former PDE itself and we suggest algorithms to evaluate numerically the sensitivities. Finally, the third part is devoted to stochastic partial differential equations. Our analysis is split into two chapters. First, we study the transmission of an uncertainty, present on starting conditions, on the solution of SPDE. Then, we analyze the impact of a perturbation of the functional terms of SPDE and the coefficient of the related Green function. In both cases, we show that the sharp and bias verify linear SPDE depending on the solution of the former SPDE itself

Dans cette thèse, nous présentons une étude rigoureuse des barres d'erreurs et des sensibilités de paramètres neutroniques (tels le keff) aux données nucléaires de base utilisées pour les calculer. Notre étude commence au niveau fondamental, i.e. les fichiers de données ENDF et leurs incertitudes, fournies sous la forme de matrices de variance/covariance, et leur traitement. Lorsqu'un calcul méthodique et consistant des sensibilités est consenti, nous montrons qu'une approche déterministe utilisant des formalismes bien connus est suffisante pour propager les incertitudes des bases de données avec un niveau de précision équivalent à celui des meilleurs outils disponibles sur le marché, comme les codes Monte-Carlo de référence. En appliquant notre méthodologie à trois exercices proposés par l'OCDE, dans le cadre des Benchmarks UACSA, nous donnons des informations, que nous espérons utiles, sur les processus physiques et les hypothèses sous-jacents aux formalismes déterministes utilisés dans cette étude<br>This dissertation presents a comprehensive study of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for reactor performance parameters (e.g. the k-effective) to the base nuclear data from which they are computed. The analysis starts at the fundamental step, the Evaluated Nuclear Data File and the uncertainties inherently associated with the data they contain, available in the form of variance/covariance matrices. We show that when a methodical and consistent computation of sensitivity is performed, conventional deterministic formalisms can be sufficient to propagate nuclear data uncertainties with the level of accuracy obtained by the most advanced tools, such as state-of-the-art Monte Carlo codes. By applying our developed methodology to three exercises proposed by the OECD (UACSA Benchmarks), we provide insights of the underlying physical phenomena associated with the used formalisms

Le terme de méta-analyse désigne l'analyse statique d'un large ensemble de résultats provenant d'études individuelles pour un même sujet donné. Cette approche est de plus en plus étudiée dans différents domaines, notamment en agronomie. Dans cette discipline, une revue bibliographique réalisée dans le cadre de la thèse a cependant montré que les méta-analyses n'étaient pas toujours de bonne qualité. Les méta-analyses effectuées en agronomie étudient ainsi très rarement la robustesse de leurs conclusions aux données utilisées et aux méthodes statistiques. L'objectif de cette thèse est de démontrer et d'illustrer l'importance des analyses de sensibilité dans le cadre de la méta-analyse en s'appuyant sur l'exemple de l'estimation des émissions de N2O provenant des sols agricoles. L'estimation des émissions de protoxyde d'azote (N2O) est réalisée à l'échelle mondaile par le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC). Le N2O est un puissant gaz à effet de serre avec un pouvoir de réchauffement 298 fois plus puissant que le CO2 sur une période de 100 ans. Les émissions de N2O ont la particularité de présenter une forte variabilité spatiale et temporelle. Deux bases de données sont utilisées dans ce travail : la base de données de Rochette et Janzen (2005) et celle de Stehfest et Bouwman (2006). Elles recensent de nombreuses mesures d'émissions de N2O réparties dans le monde provenant d'études publiées et ont joué un rôle important lors des estimations d'émissions de N2O réalisées par le GIEC. Les résultats montrent l'intérêt des modèles à effets aléatoires pour estimer les émissions de NO2 issues de sols agricoles. Ils sont bien adaptés à la structure des données (observations répétées sur un même site pour différentes doses d'engrais, avec plusieurs sites considérés). Ils permettent de distinguer la variabilité inter-sites de la variabilité intra-site et d'estimer l'effet de la dose d'engrais azoté sur les émissions de NO2. Dans ce mémoire, l'analyse de la sensibilité des estimations à la forme de la relation "Emission de N2O / Dose d'engrais azoté" a montré qu'une relation exponentielle était plus adaptée. Il apparait ainsi souhaitable de remplacer le facteur d'émission constant du GIEC (1% d'émission quelque soit la dose d'engrais azoté) par un facteur variable qui augmenterait en fonction de la dose. Nous n'avons par contre pas identifié de différence importante entre les méthodes d'inférence fréquentiste et bayésienne. Deux approches ont été proposées pour inclure des variables de milieu et de pratiques culturales dans les estimations de N2O. La méthode Random Forest permet de gérer les données manquantes et présente les meilleures prédictions d'émission de N2O. Les modèles à effets aléatoires permettent eux de prendre en compte ces variables explicatives par le biais d'une ou plusieurs mesures d'émission de N2O. Cette méthode permet de prédire les émissions de N2O pour des doses non testées comme le cas non fertilisé en parcelles agricoles. Les résultats de cette méthode sont cependant sensibles au plan d'expérience utilisé localement pour mesurer les émissions de N2O.

La prolifération des électroniques et des émetteurs radiofréquences rend de plus en plus compliqué le processus de conception des systèmes sur le plan CEM. Ce processus doit aboutir à limiter le risque d’interférences ou de défauts au niveau le plus faible notamment dans le contexte des interférences électromagnétiques intentionnelles (IEMI). Ces défauts CEM doivent alors être anticipés lors de la phase de conception. Cependant, du fait de la dispersion des valeurs prises par certains paramètres du système, la modélisation déterministe éprouve quelques difficultés à identifier le risque encouru. La mauvaise connaissance de l’effet des incertitudes associées au système, aboutit alors à prendre des marges de conception considérables conduisant à des surcoûts de fabrication. Pour cette raison, il est devenu important de prendre en compte l’impact des incertitudes des différents paramètres constitutifs d’un système (en phase de conception). Ces paramètres sont essentiellement géométriques (e.g. position de câblages) ou électromagnétiques (e.g. caractéristiques intrinsèques de matériaux). Ils influent par nature sur les performances CEM de ce système. Ces travaux de thèse portent sur l’analyse de la propagation des incertitudes relatives à ces paramètres sur des sorties de modèles de CEM. Le but visé, consiste à quantifier sous une forme probabiliste, le risque de défaut d’un système contenant de nombreux paramètres incertains. Ce type d’étude statistique devrait également permettre, via des analyses de sensibilité, des stratégies de conception de systèmes « fiables » ou à moindres coûts. Dans le contexte des applications visées, les approches dites « fiabilistes » et la méthode dite de « stratification contrôlée », ont été identifiées comme intéressantes, du point de vue de l’analyse d’événements extrêmes. Dans un premier temps, nous nous sommes consacrés à la transposition des méthodes fiabilistes dans un contexte CEM. Ces techniques permettent de quantifier la probabilité de défaillance d’un système, définie comme le dépassement d’un seuil de risque, et renseignent, via une analyse de sensibilité locale, sur les paramètres clés à ajuster. Dans un second temps, nous nous sommes intéressés à la méthode de stratification contrôlée, non appliquée à ce jour à notre connaissance en CEM. L’objectif de cette approche consiste à estimer un quantile extrême de la réponse d’intérêt d’un modèle rigoureux, via l’utilisation d’un modèle simple beaucoup moins coûteux en termes de temps de calcul. Ce processus permet d’accélérer l’obtention d’observations extrêmes, nécessaires à l’estimation du quantile recherché. Les deux techniques ont été mises en oeuvre sur un problème complexe dans un contexte IEMI, pour estimer la probabilité d’occurrence d’événements d’interférences extrêmes. Elles ont permis de dégager des tendances similaires, quant à l’importance de certains paramètres d’entrée incertains sur les événements rares. Les deux méthodes, bien appliquées, pourraient constituer un apport considérable en matière de conception CEM<br>The proliferation of electronic and radio frequency transmitters makes more complicated the system design process on the EMC point of view. This process should lead to limit the risk of interferences or defects to lowest level particularly in the context of intentional electromagnetic interferences (IEMI). Therefore, these EMC defects have to be anticipated during the design stage. However, due to the dispersion of the values taken by some parameters of the system, the deterministic modeling presents some difficulties to identify the involved risk. The poor knowledge of the uncertainties effect associated with the system, leads then to take important design margins at the price of additional costs of manufacturing. For this reason, it has become important to take into account the impact of uncertainties of the various constituent parameters of a system (at the design stage). These parameters are essentially geometric (e.g. position of wirings) or electromagnetic (e.g. intrinsic characteristics of materials) ones. They influence by nature the EMC performance of this system. This thesis work deals with the analysis of the propagation of uncertainties of these parameters on EMC model outputs. It aims at quantifying in a probabilistic form, the default risk of a system containing numerous uncertain parameters. This type of statistical analysis should also allow through sensitivity analyses, design strategies of “reliable” systems or at lower cost. In the context of targeted applications, the so-called “reliability approaches” and the “controlled stratification” method have been identified as interesting from the point of view of the analysis of extreme events. Firstly, we are dedicated to the transposition of reliability methods in an EMC context. These techniques are used to quantify the probability of failure of a system, defined as the probability of exceeding a threshold of risk. They inform through a local sensitivity analysis, on the key parameters to adjust. Secondly, we have focused our work on the controlled stratification method, not yet applied in EMC as far as we know. The objective of this approach is to estimate an extreme quantile of the interest response of a rigorous model, using of a much cheaper simple model in terms of computation time. This process allows to speed up the identification of extreme observations required for the estimation of the researched quantile. Both techniques have been applied on a complex problem in an IEMI context, to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme interference events. They have revealed similar trends as regards to the importance of some uncertain input parameters on rare events. Both methods, properly applied, could provide a significant contribution in terms of EMC design strategy

Cette thèse se consacre aux garanties de reconstruction et de l'analyse de sensibilité de régularisation variationnelle pour des problèmes inverses linéaires bruités. Il s'agit d'un problème d'optimisation convexe combinant un terme d'attache aux données et un terme de régularisation promouvant des solutions vivant dans un espace dit de faible complexité. Notre approche, basée sur la notion de fonctions partiellement lisses, permet l'étude d'une grande variété de régularisations comme par exemple la parcimonie de type analyse ou structurée, l'antiparcimonie et la structure de faible rang. Nous analysons tout d'abord la robustesse au bruit, à la fois en termes de distance entre les solutions et l'objet original, ainsi que la stabilité de l'espace modèle promu. Ensuite, nous étudions la stabilité de ces problèmes d'optimisation à des perturbations des observations. À partir d'observations aléatoires, nous construisons un estimateur non biaisé du risque afin d'obtenir un schéma de sélection de paramètre.

Les travaux de la présente thèse portent sur le recalage de modèles dynamiques d’aubes de turbinecomposites à matrice céramique. Ils s’inscrivent dans le cadre de la quantification d’incertitudes pour la validation de modèles et ont pour objectif de fournir des outils d’aide à la décision pour les ingénieurs desbureaux d’études. En effet, la dispersion importante observée lors des campagnes expérimentales invalidel’utilisation des méthodes de recalage déterministe. Après un état de l’art sur la relation entre les incertitudeset la physique, l’approche de Vérification &amp; Validation a été introduite comme approche permettantd’assurer la crédibilité des modèles numériques. Puis, deux méthodes de recalages stochastiques, permettantde déterminer la distribution statistique des paramètres, ont été comparées sur un cas académique. La priseen compte des incertitudes n’élude pas les potentielles compensations entre paramètres. Par conséquent, desindicateurs ont été développés afin de détecter la présence de ces phénomènes perturbateurs. Ensuite, lathéorie info-gap a été employée en tant que moyen de modéliser ces méconnaissances. Une méthode derecalage stochastique robuste a ainsi été proposée, assurant un compromis entre la fidélité du modèle auxessais et la robustesse aux méconnaissances. Ces outils ont par la suite été appliqués sur un modèle éléments<br>This work is focused on the stochastic updating of ceramic matrix composite turbine blade model. They arepart of the uncertainty quantification framework for model validation. The aim is to enhance the existing toolused by the industrial decision makers. Indeed, consequent dispersion was measured during the experimentalcampaigns preventing the use of deterministic approaches. The first part of this thesis is dedicated to therelationship between mechanical science and uncertainty. Thus, Verification and Validation was introduced asthe processes by which credibility in numerical models is established. Then two stochastic updatingtechniques, able to handle statistic distribution, were compared through an academic example. Nevertheless,taking into account uncertainties doesn’t remove potential compensating effects between parameters.Therefore, criteria were developed in order to detect these disturbing phenomena. Info-gap theory wasemployed as a mean to model these lack of knowledge. Paired with the stochastic updating method, a robuststochasticapproach has been proposed. Results demonstrate a trade-off relationship between the model’sfidelity and robustness. The developed tools were applied on a ceramic matrix composite turbine blade finiteelement model

"Uncanny Affects" argues, broadly, that the gothic novel of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries models a critical ethics of reading. By examining recurrent scenes of reading and interpretation in key gothic novels such as Ann Radcliffe's The Italian (1797), Walter Scott's The Antiquary (1816), and Wilkie Collins' The Moonstone (1868), I surmise that this critical ethics posits affect, or the experience of generalized emotion, as central to the act of interpretation. I contend that this gothic critical ethics influences the concurrent development of the discipline of literary criticism. By reading these key gothic novels and then tracking their broader influence on Victorian critics such as John Ruskin and Oscar Wilde, I make a case for the significance of a gothic epistemology to the development of literary criticism in British and American universities from the nineteenth century onward. A focus on the gothic novel's critically inclined characters, including antiquarians and detectives, enables me to read gothic novels and other gothically-inflected writing for what they can tell us about the practice of interpretation, particularly as that practice becomes institutionalized and professionalized. Thus I track the gothic mode's tendency toward affective reading in relation to ideas of professionalization, which values critical detachment or disinterestedness in interpretation. As a result, interpretation in the gothic mode can seem too emotional or "creative" for a typically professional practice. Reading the gothic as such links it to modern discussions about interpretive practices such as close reading, paranoid and reparative reading, and surface reading. Perhaps more importantly, reading the gothic alongside these new discussions on critical ethics allows us to think through the place of affect and pleasure in an ethical critical practice. Ultimately, examining how gothic texts formulate a gothic mode or philosophy of reading demonstrates the real ubiquity this mode has achieved in the critical setting, a ubiquity that continues to shape and influence our conceptions of scholarly and critical reading even today.<br>text

This thesis applies a feminist theoretical perspective to interrogate discourses of postfeminism, as well as the position of the female body, fitness, and resistance within contemporary American culture. I argue that women’s fitness blogs are a vehicle for the production of Rosalind Gill’s “postfeminist sensibility,” focusing specifically on fitness bloggers’ use of self-surveillance and monitoring, personal transformation or “makeovers”, and intensified consumerism. Using ideological textual analysis of several fitness blogs as case studies, I examine the ways in which women publicly negotiate their relationships with their body through the documentation and disclosure of their food and exercise lifestyles. This thesis also acknowledges the feminist potential of fitness blogs as spaces in which women may strive towards body positivity and recovery from eating disorders, as well as challenge cultural expectations regarding female body and appetite.<br>text

In this thesis I argue that a leading sentimentalist theory, Rational Sentimentalism, faces the Problem of Superfluity because the evaluative properties to which certain emotions are responses can be defined independently of examining those emotional responses. In other words, the connection to value that Rational Sentimentalism aims for fails to obtain. I show that at least one such emotion, disgust, is influenced by higher cognition to a degree incompatible with Rational Sentimentalism avoiding the Problem of Superfluity. I conclude by suggesting ways in which other emotions are structurally similar to disgust, and therefore face the same problem in being incorporated into Rational Sentimentalism.

博士<br>國立臺灣大學<br>農業經濟學系<br>82<br>Bargaining is the best way to resolve the interest conflicits caused by scarce resources. It does not only allocate economic resources the most efficient, but also achieve economic equity on the negotiation process in a contract. The Purpose of this study is apply the vague character of Fuzzy Sets theory to analyze the process on aggricultural trade negotiation, and to know how leads to the various possibility stimulation results. Furthermore, we prove if weather bargining contract is suitable for the economic efficiency and equity of the Coases Theorm. This is crucially distinquished from the past bagaining theory. According to the prove of the axiom of fuzziness, We assume the membership function-the preference of negotiation possibility as the index of negotiation, then we can figure out equilibrium solution of Pareto Optimum. Secondly, developing this solution, we can also achieve economic efficient and equity by finding out the contract curve and fairness boundary from the equilibrium solution. In the empirical study of the specific tariff negotiation on beef between Taiwan and U.S.A., We can figure out that the optimal tariff rate Taiwan on importing beef from U.S.A. is 26 to 27 N.T. per kilograms, when Taiwan is under uniform specific tariff instead of imported quotas. It shows that only by trade negotiation to agree the optimal tariff rate, can both avoid the trade dispute and frictions, and make each other better off.

Les analyses effectuées dans le cadre de ce mémoire ont été réalisées à l'aide du module MatchIt disponible sous l’environnent d'analyse statistique R. / Statistical analyzes of this thesis were performed using the MatchIt package available in the statistical analysis environment R.<br>L’estimation sans biais de l’effet causal d’une intervention nécessite la comparaison de deux groupes homogènes. Il est rare qu’une étude observationnelle dispose de groupes comparables et même une étude expérimentale peut se retrouver avec des groupes non comparables. Les chercheurs ont alors recours à des techniques de correction afin de rendre les deux groupes aussi semblables que possible. Le problème consiste alors à choisir la méthode de correction appropriée. En ce qui nous concerne, nous limiterons nos recherches à une famille de méthodes dites d’appariement. Il est reconnu que ce qui importe lors d’un appariement est l’équilibre des deux groupes sur les caractéristiques retenues. Autrement dit, il faut que les variables soient distribuées de façon similaire dans les deux groupes. Avant même de considérer la distribution des variables entre les deux groupes, il est nécessaire de savoir si les données en question permettent une inférence causale. Afin de présenter le problème de façon rigoureuse, le modèle causal contrefactuel sera exposé. Par la suite, les propriétés formelles de trois méthodes d’appariement seront présentées. Ces méthodes sont l’appariement par la distance de Mahalanobis, de l’appariement par le score de propension et de l’appariement génétique. Le choix de la technique d’appariement appropriée reposera sur quatre critères empiriques dont le plus important est la différence des moyennes standardisées. Les résultats obtenus à l’aide des données de l’Enquête longitudinale et expérimentale de Montréal (ÉLEM) indiquent que des trois techniques d’appariement, l’appariement génétique est celui qui équilibre mieux les variables entre les groupes sur tous les critères retenus. L’estimation de l’effet de l’intervention varie sensiblement d’une technique à l’autre, bien que dans tous les cas cet effet est non significatif. Ainsi, le choix d’une technique d’appariement influence l’estimation de l’effet d’une intervention. Il est donc impérieux de choisir la technique qui permet d’obtenir un équilibre optimal des variables selon les données à la disposition du chercheur.<br>The unbiased estimate of the causal effect of an intervention requires the comparison of two homogeneous groups. It is rare that an observational study has comparable groups and even an experiment may end up with non-comparable groups. The researchers then used correction techniques to make the two groups as similar as possible. The problem then is to choose the appropriate correction method. In our case, we will restrict our research to a family of so-called matching methods. It is recognized that what matters in a match is the balance between the two groups on selected characteristics. In other words, it is necessary that the variables are distributed similarly in both groups. Even before considering the distribution of variables between the two groups, it is necessary to know whether the data in question allow for causal inference. To present the problem rigorously, the counterfactual causal model will be exposed. Thereafter, the formal properties of three matching methods will be presented. Those methods are the Mahalanobis matching, the propensity score matching and genetic matching. The choice of the appropriate matching technique is based on four empirical criteria which the most important is the standardized mean difference. Results obtained using data from the Montréal Longitudinal and Experimental Study indicate that of the three matching techniques, genetic matching is the one that better balance the variables between groups on all criteria. The estimate of the effect of intervention varies substantially from one technique to another, although in all cases this effect is non significant. Thus, the selection of a matching technique influences the estimation of the effect of an intervention. Therefore, it is imperative to choose the technique that provides an optimal balance of the variables based on data available to the researcher.

Les données manquantes sont fréquentes dans les enquêtes et peuvent entraîner d’importantes erreurs d’estimation de paramètres. Ce mémoire méthodologique en sociologie porte sur l’influence des données manquantes sur l’estimation de l’effet d’un programme de prévention. Les deux premières sections exposent les possibilités de biais engendrées par les données manquantes et présentent les approches théoriques permettant de les décrire. La troisième section porte sur les méthodes de traitement des données manquantes. Les méthodes classiques sont décrites ainsi que trois méthodes récentes. La quatrième section contient une présentation de l’Enquête longitudinale et expérimentale de Montréal (ELEM) et une description des données utilisées. La cinquième expose les analyses effectuées, elle contient : la méthode d’analyse de l’effet d’une intervention à partir de données longitudinales, une description approfondie des données manquantes de l’ELEM ainsi qu’un diagnostic des schémas et du mécanisme. La sixième section contient les résultats de l’estimation de l’effet du programme selon différents postulats concernant le mécanisme des données manquantes et selon quatre méthodes : l’analyse des cas complets, le maximum de vraisemblance, la pondération et l’imputation multiple. Ils indiquent (I) que le postulat sur le type de mécanisme MAR des données manquantes semble influencer l’estimation de l’effet du programme et que (II) les estimations obtenues par différentes méthodes d’estimation mènent à des conclusions similaires sur l’effet de l’intervention.<br>Missing data are common in empirical research and can lead to significant errors in parameters’ estimation. This dissertation in the field of methodological sociology addresses the influence of missing data on the estimation of the impact of a prevention program. The first two sections outline the potential bias caused by missing data and present the theoretical background to describe them. The third section focuses on methods for handling missing data, conventional methods are exposed as well as three recent ones. The fourth section contains a description of the Montreal Longitudinal Experimental Study (MLES) and of the data used. The fifth section presents the analysis performed, it contains: the method for analysing the effect of an intervention from longitudinal data, a detailed description of the missing data of MLES and a diagnosis of patterns and mechanisms. The sixth section contains the results of estimating the effect of the program under different assumptions about the mechanism of missing data and by four methods: complete case analysis, maximum likelihood, weighting and multiple imputation. They indicate (I) that the assumption on the type of MAR mechanism seems to affect the estimate of the program’s impact and, (II) that the estimates obtained using different estimation methods leads to similar conclusions about the intervention’s effect.