Dissertations / Theses: 'Series " Finance'

1

Koller, Stefan. "Applications of Time Series Analysis for Finance." St. Gallen, 2007. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/05604814001/$FILE/05604814001.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Spear, Scott A. "Essays in finance and time series econometrics /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9804535.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Yin, Jiang Ling. "Financial time series analysis." Thesis, University of Macau, 2011. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2492929.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

Nguyen, K. (Kim). "Time series risk factors of hedge fund investment objectives." Master's thesis, University of Oulu, 2013. http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-201311211905.

Full text

Abstract:

In this thesis, I find eight common time series risk factors among all hedge fund investment objectives, including: equity market factor, equity size spread factor, bond credit spread factor, emerging market factor, equity trend following factor, Fama-French value factor, time series momentum factor and currency risk factor. The selected statistical model constructed from the eight risk factors provides higher adjusted R squared and lower pricing errors than Fung-Hsieh model. In addition, I find that small hedge funds outperform large funds with alpha spread of 3.43 percent annually.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Staines, J. "Mining text and time series data with applications in finance." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2015. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1461987/.

Full text

Abstract:

Finance is a field extremely rich in data, and has great need of methods for summarizing and understanding these data. Existing methods of multivariate analysis allow the discovery of structure in time series data but can be difficult to interpret. Often there exists a wealth of text data directly related to the time series. In this thesis it is shown that this text can be exploited to aid interpretation of, and even to improve, the structure uncovered. To this end, two approaches are described and tested. Both serve to uncover structure in the relationship between text and time series data, but do so in very different ways. The first model comes from the field of topic modelling. A novel topic model is developed, closely related to an existing topic model for mixed data. Improved held-out likelihood is demonstrated for this model on a corpus of UK equity market data and the discovered structure is qualitatively examined. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first attempt to combine text and time series data in a single generative topic model. The second method is a simpler, discriminative method based on a low-rank decomposition of time series data with constraints determined by word frequencies in the text data. This is compared to topic modelling using both the equity data and a second corpus comprising foreign exchange rates time series and text describing global macroeconomic sentiments, showing further improvements in held-out likelihood. One example of an application for the inferred structure is also demonstrated: construction of carry trade portfolios. The superior results using this second method serve as a reminder that methodological complexity does not guarantee performance gains.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Zeng, Songlin. "Nonlinear Time Series Models with Applications in Macroeconomics and Finance." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013CERG0638.

Full text

Abstract:

Les trois chapitres suivants examinent: 1) si les taux de change réels d'Asie du Sud-Est sont nonlinéaire, 2) l'inférence bayésienne sur le modèle de série temporelle nonlinéaire avec des applications sur le taux de change réel,et 3) la cyclicité et effet de rebond dans le marché boursier.Depuis la fin des années nonante, les analyses théorique et empirique consacrée au taux de change réel suggèrent que la dynamique pourrait être bien estimés par les modèles non linéaires. Le premier chapitre examine cette possibilité utilisant les données mensuelles de l'ASEAN-5, et il s'étend la recherche existante dans deux directions. Tout d'abord, nous utilisons récemment mis au point des tests de racine unitaire ce qui permettra d'assouplir les modèles non linéaires stationnaires dans le cadre du d'autre alternative que l'couramment utilisés à SETAR ou ESTAR modèle. Deuxièmement, bien que différents modèles nonlinéaires survivre aux tests de mis-spécification, une expérience Monte Carlo à partir de généralisées fonctions de réponse impulsionnelle est utilisé pour comparer leur pertinence relative. Nos résultats i) soutenir l'hypothèse de retour nonlinéaire à la moyenne , et donc la parité de pouvoir d'achat, dans la moitié des cas et ii) indiquent MRLSTAR et ESTAR comme les plus probables processus générant des taux de change réels.Le deuxième chapitre analyse ACR modèle. Nous proposons une approche bayésienne complète d'inférence et une attention particulière est portée sur les paramètres des variables de seuil. Nous discutons le choix des distributions a priori et proposer une chaîne de Markov algorithme de Monte Carlo pour estimer les paramètres et les variables latentes. Une étude de simulation et de l'application à des données taux de change réelles illustrer l'analyse.Le troisième chapitre explore que les différentes formes de recouvrements dans les marchés financiers peuvent présenter dans un modèle de Markov Switching. Elle s'appuie sur les effets de rebond d'abord analysé par Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] dans le cycle des affaires et généralisé par Bec, Bouabdallah et Ferrara [2011] pour permettre une plus souple de type rebond.Nos résultats i) montrer que l'effet de rebond est statistiquement significative et importante dans tous les cas, mais l'Allemagne où la preuve est moins claire et ii) l'impact négatif permanent de marchés baissiers sur l'indice est notablement réduite lorsque le rebond est explicitement pris en compte The following three chapters investigate: 1) whether Southeast Asian real exchange rates are nonlinear mean reverting, 2) bayesian inference on nonlinear time series model with applications in real exchange rate, and 3)cyclicality and bounce-back effect in stock market. Since the late nineties, both theoretical and empirical analyses devoted to the real exchange rate suggest that their dynamics might be well approximated by nonlinear models. This paper examines this possibility for post-1970 monthly ASEAN-5 data, extending the existing research in two directions. First, we use recently developed unit root tests which allow for more flexible nonlinear stationary models under the alternative than the commonly used Self-Exciting Threshold or Exponential Smooth Transition AutoRegressions. Second, while different nonlinear models survive the mis-specification tests, a Monte Carlo experiment from generalized impulse response functions is used to compare their relative relevance. Our results support the nonlinear mean-reverting hypothesis, and hence the Purchasing Power Parity, in half the cases and point to the Multiple Regime-Logistic Smooth Transition and the Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegressive models as the most likely data generating processes of these real exchange rates.Various nonlinear threshold models are employed to mimic the real exchange rate dynamics. A natural question arises: Which model does the best job of modeling the real exchange rate process? It is difficult and not straightforward to formally compare the nonlinear models within classic approach. In the second chapter, we propose to use Bayesian approach to address this issue. The second part of my dissertation actually uses a Bayesian method to estimate some nonlinear time series models, the ACR model, SETAR model, and MAR model. We propose a full Bayesian inference approach and particular attention is paid to the parameters of the threshold variables. We discuss the choice of the prior distributions and propose a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating both the parameters and the latent variables. A simulation study and the application to real exchange rate data illustrate the analysis. Our empirical results of the second chapter show that i) Bayesian estimations closely match those of the Maximum likelihood for French real exchange rate vis-a-vis Deutsche Mark; ii)the speed of real exchange rate's adjustment to equilibrium level is overestimated if heterogeneous variances in two regimes is not taken into account; iii) ACR model is preferred to other nonlinear threshold models, SETAR and MAR; iv) within ACR class models, the suitable transition function form is selected based on Bayes factor.This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in financial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. It relies on models first applied by Kim, Morley et Piger [2005] to the business cycle analysis. These models are estimated for monthly stock market returns data of five developed countries for the post-1970 period. Focusing on a potential bounce-back effect in financial markets, its presence and shape are formally tested. Our results show that i) the bounce-back effect is statistically significant and large in all countries, but Germany where evidence is less clear-cut and ii) the negative permanent impact of bear markets on the stock price index is notably reduced when the rebound is explicitly taken into account

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

Brooks, Joshua Andrew. "Three essays on investments and time series econometrics." Thesis, The University of Alabama, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3711188.

Full text

Abstract:

This dissertation includes three essays on investments and time series econometrics. This work gives new insight into the behavior of implied marginal tax rates, implied volatility, and option pricing models. The first essay examines the movement of implied marginal tax rates. A body of research points to the existence of implied marginal tax rates that can be extracted from security or derivative prices. We use the LIBOR-based interest rate swap curve and the MSI-based interest rate swap curve to examine changes in the implied tax rate. We document multiple statistically and economically significant structural breaks in the long-run implied marginal tax rate that are not exclusively located in the financial crisis (one as recent as October, 2010). These breaks represent persistent divergence from long run averages and indicate that mean reversion models may not accurately describe the stochastic processes of implied marginal tax rates. In the second essay, I develop an asymmetric time series model of the VIX. I show that the VIX and realized volatility display significant nonlinear effects which I approximate with a smooth-transition autoregressive model. I find that under certain regimes the VIX depends almost exclusively on previous realized volatility. Under other regimes, I find that the VIX depends on both its lags and previous realized volatility. Since the VIX has become a popular hedging instrument, this finding has important implications for risk managers who elect to use the VIX and its related investment vehicles. It also has implications for the use of implied volatility in value-at-risk forecasting. The third essay presents a new model for option pricing model selection. There is a significant performativity issue intrinsic in much of the option pricing literature. Once an option-pricing model (OPM) gains widespread acceptance, volatilities tend to move so that the OPM fits well with observed prices. This often leads to systematic mispricing based purely on model results. A number of systematic issues such as volatility smile are present in OPMs. To remedy this issue, I propose a new method for ranking OPMs based on one step ahead forecasts. This model transforms the data to build a distribution of the stochastic term present in OPM. This sample distribution is then tested for normality so that OPMs can be ranked in a Bayesian-like framework by their closeness to a normal distribution.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Dunne, Peter Gerard. "Essays in financial time-series analysis." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.337690.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Jin, Shusong. "Nonlinear time series modeling with application to finance and other fields." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2005. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B3199605X.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Jin, Shusong, and 金曙松. "Nonlinear time series modeling with application to finance and other fields." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2005. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B3199605X.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Munir, A. U. K. "Series representations and approximation of some quantile functions appearing in finance." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2013. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1383796/.

Full text

Abstract:

It has long been agreed by academics that the inversion method is the method of choice for generating random variates, given the availability of a cheap but accurate approximation of the quantile function. However for several probability distributions arising in practice a satisfactory method of approximating these functions is not available. The main focus of this thesis will be to develop Taylor and asymptotic series representations for quantile functions of the following probability distributions; Variance Gamma, Generalized Inverse Gaussian, Hyperbolic, -Stable and Snedecor’s F distributions. As a secondary matter we briefly investigate the problem of approximating the entire quantile function. Indeed with the availability of these new analytic expressions a whole host of possibilities become available. We outline several algorithms and in particular provide a C++ implementation for the variance gamma case. To our knowledge this is the fastest available algorithm of its sort.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

Kim, Jinki. "Applications of non-linear time series models on finance and macroeconomics." Thesis, University of York, 2003. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/10824/.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

Kwok, Sai-man Simon. "Statistical inference of some financial time series models." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2006. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B36885654.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Bergamelli, Michele. "Structural breaks and outliers detection in time-series econometrics : methods and applications." Thesis, City University London, 2015. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/14868/.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks analysis and outliers detection in parametric linear models. The focus is on the development of new econometric tools as well as on the analysis of novel but largely unexplored approaches. The econometric methods under analysis are illustrated using macroeconomic and financial relationships. The thesis is organised in three main chapters. In Chapter 2, we consider two novel methods to detect multiple structural breaks affecting the deterministic component of a linear system. The first is an extension of the dummy saturation method whereas the second method deals with a sequential bootstrapping procedure based on the sup-F statistic. Through an extensive Monte Carlo exercise, we explore the ability of the two approaches to detect the correct number and the correct location of the breaks. Additionally, we illustrate how to apply empirically the two procedures by investigating the stability of the Fisher relationship in the United States. In Chapter 3, we consider testing for multiple structural breaks in the vector error correction framework. First, we study the role of weak exogeneity when testing for structural breaks in the cointegrating matrix. Second, we extend the existing likelihood ratio test of Hansen (2003) to the case of unknown break dates through the specification of a minimum p-value statistic with critical values approximated by bootstrapping. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed statistic has good finite sample properties whilst three small empirical applications illustrate how the minimum p-value statistic can be used in practice. In Chapter 4, we tackle the purchasing power parity puzzle developing a robust estimator for the half-life of the real exchange rate. Specifically, we propose to identify outlying observations by means of a dummy saturation type algorithm designed for ARMA processes which enables to detect additional and innovative outliers as well as level shifts. An empirical application involving US dollar real exchange rates shows that the estimated half-lives are considerably shorter when outlying observations are correctly modelled, therefore shedding some light on the purchasing power parity puzzle.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

Wong, Wing-mei. "Some topics in model selection in financial time series analysis." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2001. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B23273112.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

Lin, Zhongli. "On the statistical inference of some nonlinear time series models." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2009. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B43757625.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

Ellis, Craig. "An investigation of long-term dependence in time-series data /." View thesis, 1998. http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/public/adt-NUWS20030723.150913/index.html.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Mansur, Mohaimen. "Essays on forecasting financial and economic time series." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2014. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/8576.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis comprises three main chapters focusing on a number of issues related to forecasting economic and nancial time series. Chapter 2 contains a detailed empirical study comparing forecast perfor- mance of a number of popular term structure models in predicting the UK yield curve. Several questions are addressed and investigated, such as whether macroeconomic information helps in forecasting yields and whether predict- ing performance of models change over time. We nd evidence of signi cant time-variation in forecast accuracy of competing models, particularly during the recent nancial crisis period. Chapter 3 explores density forecasts of the yield curve which, unlike the point forecasts, provide a full account of possible uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. We contribute by evaluating predictive performance of the recently developed stochastic-volatility arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel models of Chris- tensen et al. (2010). The one-month-ahead predictive densities of the models appear to be inferior compared to those of their constant-volatility counter- parts. The advantage of modelling time-varying volatilities becomes evident only when forecasting interest rates at longer horizons. Chapter 3 deals with a more general problem of forecasting time series under structural change and long memory noise. Presence of long memory in the data is often easily confused with structural change. Wrongly account- ing for one when the other is present may lead to serious forecast failure. In our search for a forecast method that can perform reliably in presence of both features we extend the recent work of Giraitis et al. (2013). A forecast strategy with data-dependent discounting is adopted and typical robust-to- structural-change methods such as rolling window regression, forecast averag- ing and exponentially weighted moving average methods are exploited. We provide detailed theoretical analyses of forecast optimality by considering cer- tain types of structural changes and various degrees of long range dependence in noise. An extensive Monte Carlo study and empirical application to many UK time series ensure usefulness of adaptive forecast methods.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

Mwita, Peter Nyamuhanga. "Semiparametric estimation of conditional quantiles for time series, with applications in finance." [S.l. : s.n.], 2003. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=967140846.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

Kim, Yunmi. "Essays on time series models with dynamic coefficients in macroeconomics and finance /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/7379.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Kwan, Chun-kit. "Statistical inference for some financial time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2008. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B39794027.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Daihes, Oron. "Essays on specification testing in time series with applications to statistical arbitrage." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2012. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/12462/.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

Fong, Pak-wing. "Topics in financial time series analysis : theory and applications /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2001. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B23373088.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

Ishida, Isao. "Essays on financial time series /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2004. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3153696.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

Schmitt, Daniel T. "Time series analysis of real-world complex systems - climate, finance, proteins, and physiology." [S.l. : s.n.], 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:289-vts-60656.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Allee, Kristian Dietrich. "Estimating cost of equity capital with time-series forecasts of earnings." [Bloomington, Ind.] : Indiana University, 2008. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3331266.

Full text

Abstract:

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 2008. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Jul 23, 2009). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-11, Section: A, page: 4394. Adviser: James M. Wahlen.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

王詠媚 and Wing-mei Wong. "Some topics in model selection in financial time series analysis." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2001. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31225366.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Lin, Zhongli, and 林中立. "On the statistical inference of some nonlinear time series models." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2009. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B43757625.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

Kwok, Sai-man Simon, and 郭世民. "Statistical inference of some financial time series models." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2006. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B36885654.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

Naka, Atsuyuki. "The volatility of financial markets: A time-series analysis of foreign exchange futures." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184845.

Full text

Abstract:

This research introduces hedging and basis risk models based on intertemporal asset pricing between futures and spot currency exchange markets. Recently developed time-series models are employed and empirically tested for five currencies: the British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutschemark, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The models of international intertemporal asset pricing, which have heretofore been largely based on the rational expectations hypothesis, are modified to allow for risk aversion. Recent research has demonstrated that the presence of risk premia can separate the expected future spot prices from certain speculative prices, such as futures and forward exchange rates, at the maturity date. My results show that there is strong indication of varying risk premia, as reflected in heteroskedastic error terms through time, in both hedging and basis risk models. The nature of heteroskedasticity is well captured by Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models, which may explain the excess volatility of financial markets. Some markets indicate that the correct specification of models are ARMA with ARCH. I also extend the analysis from univariate to multivariate models, where the problem of heteroskedasticity is reflected in a system of equations. A multivariate ARCH model allows the conditional variance-covariance matrix to vary over time. The results support the hypotheses of varying risk premia for both hedging and basis risk models. The results of specification tests indicate that the models based on financial theory can be improved by introducing additional variables such as lagged endogenous and exogenous variables. This study shows how important it is to incorporate the varying variances and covariance matrices into financial models and it also shows that currently established financial models may need to be modified in order to capture the behavior for foreign exchange future markets.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

方柏榮 and Pak-wing Fong. "Topics in financial time series analysis: theory and applications." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2001. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31241669.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

Kwan, Chun-kit, and 關進傑. "Statistical inference for some financial time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B39794027.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

Lalaharison, Hanjarivo. "Processus de Lévy et leurs applications en finance : analyse, méthodologie et estimation." Thesis, Paris 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA010020.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Schnaitmann, Julie [Verfasser]. "Essays in Modern Time Series Econometrics with Applications in Macroeconomics and Finance / Julie Schnaitmann." Konstanz : KOPS Universität Konstanz, 2021. http://d-nb.info/1238018017/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

Wang, Jingjing. "Different estimations of time series models and application for foreign exchange in emerging markets." Thesis, Mississippi State University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10141678.

Full text

Abstract:

Time series models have been widely used in simulating financial data sets. Finding a nice way to estimate the parameters is really important. One of the traditional ways is to use maximum likelihood estimation to make an approach. However, when the error terms don’t have normality, MLE would be less efficient. Quasi maximum likelihood estimation, also regarded as Gaussian MLE, would be more efficient. Considering the heavy-tailed financial data sets, we can use non-Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood, which needs less assumptions and conditions. We use real financial data sets to compare these estimators.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

Ma, Po-yee Pauline. "The heteroscedastic structure of some Hong Kong price series." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 1989. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B31976062.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

Schwill, Stephan. "Entropy analysis of financial time series." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/entropy-analysis-of-financial-time-series(7e0c84fe-5d0b-41bc-96c6-5e41ffa5b8fe).html.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis applies entropy as a model independent measure to address research questions concerning the dynamics of various financial time series. The thesis consists of three main studies as presented in chapters 3, 4 and 5. Chapters 3 and 4 apply an entropy measure to conduct a bivariate analysis of drawdowns and drawups in foreign exchange rates. Chapter 5 investigates the dynamics of investment strategies of hedge funds using entropy of realised volatility in a conditioning model. In all three studies, methods from information theory are applied in novel ways to financial time series. As Information Theory and its central concept of entropy are not widely used in the economic sciences, a methodology chapter was therefore included in chapter 2 that gives an overview on the theoretical background and statistical features of the entropy measures used in the three main studies. In the first two studies the focus is on mutual information and transfer entropy. Both measures are used to identify dependencies between two exchange rates. The chosen measures generalise, in a well defined manner, correlation and Granger causality. A different entropy measure, the approximate entropy, is used in the third study to analyse the serial structure of S&P realised volatility. The study of drawdowns and drawups has so far been concentrated on their uni- variate characteristics. Encoding the drawdown information of a time series into a time series of discrete values, Chapter 3 uses entropy measures to analyse the correlation and cross correlations of drawdowns and drawups. The method to encode the drawdown information is explained and applied to daily and hourly EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates from 2001 to 2012. For the daily series, we find evidence of dependence among the largest draws (i.e. 5% and 95% quantiles), but it is not as strong as the correlation between the daily returns of the same pair of FX rates. There is also dependence between lead/lagged values of these draws. Similar and stronger findings were found among the hourly data. We further use transfer entropy to examine the spill over and lead-lag information flow between drawup/drawdown of the two exchange rates. Such information flow is indeed detectable in both daily and hourly data. The amount of information transferred is considerably higher for the hourly than the daily data. Both daily and hourly series show clear evidence of information flowing from EUR/USD to GBP/USD and, slightly stronger, in the reverse direction. Robustness tests, using effective transfer entropy, show that the information measured is not due to noise. Chapter 4 uses state space models of volatility to investigate volatility spill overs between exchange rates. Our use of entropy related measures in the investigation of dependencies of two state space series is novel. A set of five daily exchange rates from emerging and developed economies against the dollar over the period 1999 to 2012 is used. We find that among the currency pairs, the co-movement of EUR/USD and CHF/USD volatility states show the strongest observed relationship. With the use of transfer entropy, we find evidence for information flows between the volatility state series of AUD, CAD and BRL.Chapter 5 uses the entropy of S&P realised volatility in detecting changes of volatility regime in order to re-examine the theme of market volatility timing of hedge funds. A one-factor model is used, conditioned on information about the entropy of market volatility, to measure the dynamic of hedge funds equity exposure. On a cross section of around 2500 hedge funds with a focus on the US equity markets we find that, over the period from 2000 to 2014, hedge funds adjust their exposure dynamically in response to changes in volatility regime. This adds to the literature on the volatility timing behaviour of hedge fund manager, but using entropy as a model independent measure of volatility regime. Finally, chapter 6 summarises and concludes with some suggestions for future research.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

Ghazali, Rozaida. "Higher order neural networks for financial time series prediction." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 2007. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/5879/.

Full text

Abstract:

Neural networks have been shown to be a promising tool for forecasting financial times series. Numerous research and applications of neural networks in business have proven their advantage in relation to classical methods that do not include artificial intelligence. What makes this particular use of neural networks so attractive to financial analysts and traders is the fact that governments and companies benefit from it to make decisions on investment and trading. However, when the number of inputs to the model and the number of training examples becomes extremely large, the training procedure for ordinary neural network architectures becomes tremendously slow and unduly tedious. To overcome such time-consuming operations, this research work focuses on using various Higher Order Neural Networks (HONNs) which have a single layer of learnable weights, therefore reducing the networks' complexity. In order to predict the upcoming trends of univariate financial time series signals, three HONNs models; the Pi-Sigma Neural Network, the Functional Link Neural Network, and the Ridge Polynomial Neural Network were used, as well as the Multilayer Perceptron. Furthermore, a novel neural network architecture which comprises of a feedback connection in addition to the feedforward Ridge Polynomial Neural Network was constructed. The proposed network combines the properties of both higher order and recurrent neural networks, and is called Dynamic Ridge Polynomial Neural Network (DRPNN). Extensive simulations covering ten financial time series were performed. The forecasting performance of various feedforward HONNs models, the Multilayer Perceptron and the novel DRPNN was compared. Simulation results indicate that HONNs, particularly the DRPNN in most cases demonstrated advantages in capturing chaotic movement in the financial signals with an improvement in the profit return over other network models. The relative superiority of DRPNN to other networks is not just its ability to attain high profit return, but rather to model the training set with fast learning and convergence. The network offers fast training and shows considerable promise as a forecasting tool. It is concluded that DRPNN do have the capability to forecast the financial markets, and individual investor could benefit from the use of this forecasting.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

Neslihanoglu, Serdar. "Validating and extending the two-moment capital asset pricing model for financial time series." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2014. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5658/.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis contributes to the ongoing discussion about the financial and statistical modelling of returns on financial stock markets. It develops the asset pricing model concept which has received continuous attention for almost 50 years in the area of finance, as a method by which to identify the stochastic behaviour of financial data when making investment decisions, such as portfolio choices, and determining market risk. The best known and most widely used asset pricing model detailed in the finance literature is the Two-Moment Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) (consistent with the Linear Market Model), which was developed by Sharpe-Lintner- Mossin in the 1960s to explore systematic risk in a mean-variance framework and is the benchmark model for this thesis. However, this model has now been criticised as misleading and insufficient as a tool for characterising returns in financial stock markets. This is partly a consequence of the presence of non-normally distributed returns and non-linear relationships between asset and market returns. The inadequacies of the Two-Moment CAPM are qualified in this thesis, and the extensions are proposed that improve on both model fit and forecasting abilities. To validate and extend the benchmark Linear Market Model, the empirical work presented in this thesis centres around three related extensions. The first extension compares the Linear Market Model’s modelling and forecasting abilities with those of the time-varying Linear Market Model (consistent with the conditional Two-Moment CAPM) for 19 Turkish industry sector portfolios. Two statistical modelling techniques are compared: a class of GARCH-type models, which allow for non-constant variance in stock market returns, and state space models, which allow for the systematic covariance risk to change linearly over time in the time-varying Linear Market Model. The state space modelling is shown to outperform the GARCH-type modelling. The second extension concentrates on comparing the performance of the Linear Market Model, with models for higher order moments, including polynomial extensions and a Generalised Additive Model (GAM). In addition, time-varying versions of the Linear Market Model and polynomial extensions, in the form of state space models, are considered. All these models are applied to 18 global markets during three different time periods: the entire period from July 2002 to July 2012, from July 2002 to just before the October 2008 financial crisis, and from after the October 2008 financial crisis to July 2012. Although the more complex unconditional models are shown to improve slightly on the Linear Market Model, the state space models again improve substantially on all the unconditional models. The final extension focuses on comparing the performance of four possible multivariate state space forms of the time-varying Linear Market Models, using data on the same 18 global markets, utilising correlations between markets. This approach is shown to improve further on the performance of the univariate state space models. The thesis concludes by drawing together three related themes: the inappropriateness of the Linear Market Model, the extent to which multivariate modelling improves the univariate market model and the state of the world’s stock markets.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

Shi, Rong. "Applications of adaptive Fourier decomposition to financial data." Thesis, University of Macau, 2012. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2592936.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Cho, Young-Hye. "Time-varying betas and market microstructures in option markets /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9981964.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

Enriquez-Savery, Sherlene. "Statistical Analysis of a Risk Factor in Finance and Environmental Models for Belize." Scholar Commons, 2016. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6231.

Full text

Abstract:

The objectives of the study are to review and evaluate four basic risk models that are commonly used in investment science; statistically investigate the risk factor in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) that is used to reflect the safety of an investment decision in stocks; explore the statistical distribution of monthly precipitation in Belize and to forecast tourist arrivals using statistical time series modelling techniques. The risk models are the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe-Linter Version), Capital Asset Pricing Model (Conditional Version), Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and Fama–French three-factor model adopted in empirical investigations of asset pricing. The underlying assumptions of using these models are reviewed, and the statistical procedures to evaluate their robustness are reviewed. It will be shown that the present manner of determining this risk factor is quite sensitive and misleading. We introduce a statistical procedure for obtaining a more robust measure of the risk factor commonly referred to as CAPM beta. Changes in the hydrological cycle will generate repercussions in all sectors. It is therefore imperative that Belize’s water resources be managed in an integrated manner, responding to the requirements of all sectors. Daily rainfall data have been collected for a period of 51 years (1960– 2011) from The National Meteorological Service of Belize. The Wakeby distribution adequately fit the monthly rainfall data producing a suitable model based on the Kolmogorov – Smirnov test. Tourism is vitally important to the entire Belize’s economy, contributing 50% of Belize's gross domestic product in 2015. It is the foremost foreign exchange earner in this small economy, followed by exports of marine products, citrus, cane sugar, bananas, and garments. The tourist sector is not without its vulnerabilities and is subject to international economic vagaries. In order to meet the expected future demands on the industry in terms of service delivery it is important that the sector understands the significance of forecasting.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

Nakano, Satoshi. "A time-series analysis of union growth : unionisation in banking, 1920-1989." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1993. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4326/.

Full text

Abstract:

This is an interdisciplinary work in industrial relations, focusing particularly on union growth. As such, its methodological properties derive from four different fields in the social sciences; a relatively recent development in sociology and social theory, industrial relations and economics. Any research in the social sciences requires reciprocal processes between the theory and empirical surveys, through which a generalised model of certain phenomenon can be constructed. When we actually starts an investigation, however, we are often dismayed by the fact that theories are rather fragmentary whereas empirical data is difficult to obtain. This might be particularly so in a social study carried out in a historical context. Chapters 1 and 2 of this dissertation deal with theories and 3 to 7 the empirical evidence required to test them. A few problems concerning the foundations of social theory are briefly mentioned in Chapter 1. The point here is to consider a micro-foundation for subsequent analysis. This seems indispensable to me as it is something that current social theory lacks and a straightforward application of the rational choice framework also seems somewhat problematic. Following this, Chapter 2 provides a survey of theories of union growth in developed in sociology, industrial relations and economics. My contention here is that no single theory is sufficient to understand the social process as a whole. The empirical section, whose primary aim is the verification of the theories, consists of three parts; Chapter 3 is an introduction to the banking industry and its industrial relations system, from which information for the empirical research is taken. Chapters 4 and 7 provide analyses of shortrun and long-term union growth in the industry. In these chapters, I generally followed a method commonly adopted in industrial relations and economics. Chapters 5 and 6 provide an historical analysis of union growth. The approach here is explicitly historical sociological, in which the research aims to attain a generalised understanding of the social processes from an empirical context. This, I think, is valuable particularly when the nature of causality changes and when theory does not have absolute reliability.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

Katsiampa, Paraskevi. "Nonlinear exponential autoregressive time series models with conditional heteroskedastic errors with applications to economics and finance." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2015. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/18432.

Full text

Abstract:

The analysis of time series has long been the subject of interest in different fields. For decades time series were analysed with linear models, which have many advantages. Nevertheless, an issue which has been raised is whether there exist other models that can explain and forecast real data better than linear ones. In this thesis, new nonlinear time series models are suggested, which consist of a nonlinear conditional mean model, such as an ExpAR or an Extended ExpAR, and a nonlinear conditional variance model, such as an ARCH or a GARCH. Since new models are introduced, simulated series of the new models are presented, as it is important in order to see what characteristics real data which could be explained by them should have. In addition, the models are applied to various stationary and nonstationary economic and financial time series and are compared to the classic AR-ARCH and AR-GARCH models, in terms of fitting and forecasting. It is shown that, although it is difficult to beat the AR-ARCH and AR-GARCH models, the ExpAR and Extended ExpAR models and their special cases, combined with conditional heteroscedastic errors, can be useful tools in fitting, describing and forecasting nonlinear behaviour in financial and economic time series, and can provide some improvement in terms of both fitting and forecasting compared to the AR-ARCH and AR-GARCH models.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

Ellis, Craig. "An investigation of long-term dependence in time-series data." Thesis, View thesis, 1998. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/242.

Full text

Abstract:

Traditional models of financial asset yields are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. Among these are the primary assumptions that changes in asset yields are independent, and that the distribution of these yields is approximately normal. The development of financial asset pricing models has also incorporated these assumptions. A general feature of the pricing models is that the relationship between the model variables is fundamentally linear. Recent empirical research has however identified the possibility for these relations to be non-linear. The empirical research focused primarily on methodological issues relating to the application of the classical rescaled adjusted range. Some of the major issues investigated were: the use of overlapping versus contiguous subseries lengths in the calculation of the statistic's Hurst exponent; the asymptotic distribution of the Hurst exponent for Gaussian time-series and long-term dependent fBm's; matters pertaining to the estimation of the expected rescaled adjusted range. Empirical research in this thesis also considered alternate applications of rescaled range analysis, other than modelling non-linear long-term dependence. Issues relating to the use of the technique for estimating long-term dependent ARFIMA processes, and some implications of long-term dependence for financial time-series have both been investigated. Overall, the general shape of the asymptotic distribution of the Hurst exponent has been shown to be invariant to the level of dependence in the underlying series. While the rescaled adjusted range is a biased indicator of the level of long-term dependence in simulated time-series, it was found that the bias could be efficiently modelled. For real time-series containing structured short-term dependence, the bias was shown to be inconsistent with the simulated results.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Chu, Kuok Kun. "Nonlinear time series analysis of Chinese stock markets : Shanghai stock exchanges & Shenzhen stock exchanges." Thesis, University of Macau, 2000. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1636220.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

Weigand, Roland [Verfasser], Rolf [Akademischer Betreuer] Tschernig, and Enzo [Akademischer Betreuer] Weber. "Modeling Multivariate Time Series with Fractional Integration in Macroeconomics and Finance / Roland Weigand ; Rolf Tschernig, Enzo Weber." Regensburg : Universitätsbibliothek Regensburg, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1165869039/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

Al, Rababa'A Abdel Razzaq. "Uncovering hidden information and relations in time series data with wavelet analysis : three case studies in finance." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/25961.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis aims to provide new insights into the importance of decomposing aggregate time series data using the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform. In particular, the analysis throughout this thesis involves decomposing aggregate financial time series data at hand into approximation (low-frequency) and detail (high-frequency) components. Following this, information and hidden relations can be extracted for different investment horizons, as matched with the detail components. The first study examines the ability of different GARCH models to forecast stock return volatility in eight international stock markets. The results demonstrate that de-noising the returns improves the accuracy of volatility forecasts regardless of the statistical test employed. After de-noising, the asymmetric GARCH approach tends to be preferred, although that result is not universal. Furthermore, wavelet de-noising is found to be more important at the key 99% Value-at-Risk level compared to the 95% level. The second study examines the impact of fourteen macroeconomic news announcements on the stock and bond return dynamic correlation in the U.S. from the day of the announcement up to sixteen days afterwards. Results conducted over the full sample offer very little evidence that macroeconomic news announcements affect the stock-bond return dynamic correlation. However, after controlling for the financial crisis of 2007-2008 several announcements become significant both on the announcement day and afterwards. Furthermore, the study observes that news released early in the day, i.e. before 12 pm, and in the first half of the month, exhibit a slower effect on the dynamic correlation than those released later in the month or later in the day. While several announcements exhibit significance in the 2008 crisis period, only CPI and Housing Starts show significant and consistent effects on the correlation outside the 2001, 2008 and 2011 crises periods. The final study investigates whether recent returns and the time-scaled return can predict the subsequent trading in ten stock markets. The study finds little evidence that recent returns do predict the subsequent trading, though this predictability is observed more over the long-run horizon. The study also finds a statistical relation between trading and return over the long-time investment horizons of [8-16] and [16-32] day periods. Yet, this relation is mostly a negative one, only being positive for developing countries. It also tends to be economically stronger during bull-periods.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

Kassimatis, Yiannis. "An application of recently developed time series analysis to black market real exchange rates in the Pacific Basin countries." Thesis, Boston Spa, U.K. : British Library Document Supply Centre, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?did=1&uin=uk.bl.ethos.239909.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

Quoreshi, Shahiduzzaman. "Time series modelling of high frequency stock transaction data." Doctoral thesis, Umeå : Department of Economics, Umeå universitet, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-757.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Series " Finance'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles