Academic literature on the topic 'Services publics – Chine'

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the financing and provision of basic public services in China. The main issue addressed is how to reform the public finance system to achieve quality and fairness in the provision of basic public services. Design/methodology/approach Based on an historical analysis of the functional transformation of the public finance system in China and on an empirical analysis of the current public finance system and the public service provision system, a comprehensive understanding was gained about the relationship between the financing and provision of basic public services. Findings The paper argues that there is a close relationship between the provision of basic public services and the functional changes made to the public finance system. Based on a systematic retrospective study of the Chinese Government’s efforts to improve basic public services over the last three decades, this paper offers policy suggestions on further public finance restructuring that would support better service provision. Originality/value By analyzing issues in the public service provision system, this paper contributes to the debate about the efficiency improvement made to governmental functions in China.

Internet’s online information services can deliver high-quality services to the public while eliminating social alienation and virus transmission. From 2013 until the fourth quarter of 2020, China has had the highest number of Internet users in the world. Public access to information in the health care business in China is mostly through the Internet. In the healthcare business, high-quality information services are the fundamental obstacle because of their importance and effect on human lives. This article uses Chinese hospitals as a case study, covering assessment system development and empirical research. A total of 217 questionnaires were issued, 212 of which were valid, and the effective rate was 97.6 percent. The outcomes of the research show that the extensive epidemiological information services of the hospital website during an epidemic outbreak have a significant influence on the public’s use of the hospital website. Secondly, high-quality epidemic-related information services are critical to enhancing website information services during outbreaks. Finally, in the epidemic, the high-quality service of the hospital’s website has a greater impact on the worth of information in comparison to the content of information service.

Objective Based on the rural public health services of 29 regions in China, a service efficiency evaluation index system consisting of input and output dimensions was constructed, and the coupling, coordination and disparity efficiencies of rural public health services in China were studied, providing information to redress the imbalance in the interregional coordinated development. Methods The efficiency, spatiotemporal disparity pattern, spatial correlation and evolutionary trend of the coordinated development of rural public health services of 29 regions in China from 2004 to 2018 were analyzed using efficiency and spatial analysis methods such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), kernel density estimation and Moran’s Ⅰ analysis. Result Nowadays, there are problems of unbalanced and insufficient development between the fields and regions in the development of rural public health services in China. The development level of rural public health services in various regions shows a distribution pattern that the service efficiency is “high in the middle”, “middle in the east” and “low in the west”, indicating a spatial cluster effect.

This paper presents an evaluation index system of public service quality, which contains 35 indexes from the dimensions of the output and effect. Based on data from 2010 to 2017 in 12 coastal provinces and cities of China, this paper assesses public service quality by using the methods of entropy weight order preference similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and analyzes the effect of fiscal transparency on public service quality. The results show that the public service quality in the 12 coastal provinces and cities of China studied is relatively high, and fiscal transparency has a positive effect on public service quality. This analysis showed that an increase of 1% in fiscal transparency would lead to an increase of 0.0323% in the quality of public services. Fiscal transparency contributes to the quality of public services by improving the scale of investment and the efficiency of public services expenditure; this is because fiscal transparency can increase the expenditure on public welfare services and curb official corruption. Furthermore, the proposed evaluation index can enable government administrators to take the necessary steps on the appropriate dimensions to improve public service quality. This study can provide some guidelines for other countries, especially to improve public service quality by increasing fiscal transparency.

Community-based mental health services are important for the treatment and recovery of patients with mental health disorders. The Chinese government has made the establishment of a highly efficient community-based health service an enduring priority. Since the 1960s, community-based mental health services have been developed in many Chinese cities and provinces. National policies, including mental health regulations and five-year national mental health working plans, have been issued to support the development of quality of mental health services. The accessibility and efficiency of community-based mental health services are now highly promoted to community residents. According to the National Standards for Primary Public Health Services, community-based mental health services are one of the most important components of primary public health services. They are mainly provided via Community Health Service Centres (CHCs), by a combination of general practitioners, public health physicians, nurses and social workers. Patients receive individualized and continuous health services according to their rehabilitation status. These services include regular physical examination, health education, rehabilitation guidance, social function rehabilitation training, vocational training and referral services; family members also receive care and psychological support. Future work will focus on expanding mental health service coverage and usage, increasing awareness of mental health and decreasing stigma, and strengthening service capability to establish an integrated model to enhance the overall efficiency of mental health services.

Complaints communities in the developing countries, especially Indonesia to the public service are still extremely high. Perceived imbalances such as in: obscurity of time, cost and method of service; discrimination in services based on the relationships of friends, family, political affiliation, ethnic and even religious; chain length the more entrenched bureaucracy and bribery and extortion. This condition is a signaled for the government to seek strategic solutions to improve public services. This study aims to discover the design of public service operations in accordance with the expectations of society by measuring the performance of the public service. Recommended design is a design that lead to e-Government and reinventing goverment to give birth standard operating procedures (SOP) and minimum service standards (SPM) for public services in Indonesia, especially in the public service that is closest to the village community with Quality function deployment (QFD) in house of quality (HOQ) method. In the first phase of the study mapped 36 public expectations of public services, which are shown in this analysis that the public is not getting an appropriate and satisfying service, although does not show the high gap. On the other hand mapping the public response to the internet-based administration showed the unpreparedness of the people against the internet-based public services. The majority of respondents claimed to feel more comfortable and definitely served in the village office immediately met with the officers. Queue and the possibility of intervention or extortion is not a problem for society. In the second phase of this study will examine the true public service bureaucracy and the possibility of cutting the bureaucratic process that is more streamlined, clear, fast, and facilitate community. Last step is to benchmark the Chinese State as densely populated countries such as Indonesia, to make strategic steps and implementable in problem solving public dissatisfaction with public services and the number of maladministration. Keywords: fulfillment of community expectations, e-goverment, reinventing goverment, standard operating procedures, minimum service standards, good governance

It is very important to study public library services available to migrant workers, which have the potential to enrich public library services and promote social equity. After analyzing the present situation and characteristics of migrant workers in China, this article takes the services for migrant workers offered by Hangzhou Public Library as an example and explores the best ways to service migrant workers in public libraries, including how to further break down the obstacles to service, how to expand the mode of service, and how to make a greater effort to optimize the growth environment of migrant workers and promote their integration into urban cultural life in the future.

Rural and urban areas are mainly connected by public transport in China. The characteristics of the trips of local residents in rural and urban areas are different; therefore, the demand for public transport information services is different. Based on the revealed data, a structural equation model is applied to examine the critical factors affecting the behavior of urban and rural residents in choosing public transport in the Beidaihe District, Qinhuangdao City, China. The effect of information service factors on public transport behavior of urban and rural residents is obtained. The influence level of public transport information service on public transport behavior of urban and rural residents before and during travel is discussed. This study provides valuable insights to improving public transport services between urban and rural areas of China, which can attract more residents to use public transport and promotes sustainable development between urban and rural areas.

New public management (NPM) paradigm plays an increasingly important role in contemporary public management practices throughout the democratic world. This article argues that the driving force behind NPM reform in China at the local level is the competitive pressure to improve administrative performance. In China, where there is no electoral democratic regime, local governments face pressure in competition with counterparts over economic performance and consequent promotion opportunities for their leadership. The introduction of NPM can make local governments more effective and efficient in providing public services, which can result in local governments attracting more investments and enhancing competitiveness. The administrative licensing reform with public service outsourcing in Heping District, Tianjin City, China, is an example of NPM reform driven by competition among local governments. Keywords: new public management • local governments • administrative licensing • public service outsourcing • China

En France, depuis les années 1990, la polarité traditionnelle service public / fonction publique est mise en cause par des mesures de privatisation et d'externalisation des services publics d'une part, et par la contractualisation et la « managérialisation » de la fonction publique d'autre part. Ces tendances s'observent également en Chine dans la construction d'un système de services publics à partir des années 1990, et dans l'instauration d'une fonction publique décidée à la fin des années 1980 et entérinée par la loi du 27 avril 2005 « sur les agents publics ». Malgré les divergencespolitiques et culturelles entre les deux pays, on constate non seulement un même mouvement de recul de l'administration publique dans la gestion des services publics, mais aussi l'influence croissante du droit privé sur le droit de la fonction publique. Le droit public, en tant qu'il régit traditionnellement le service public et la fonction publique, est dès lors mis en question tant au niveau de son périmètre qu'au niveau de sa substance. À mesure que la relation entre service publicet fonction publique se distend, la corrélation entre les finalités de l'État et les structures administratives devient moins évidente. Dans ce contexte, la comparaison des droits français et chinois éclaire les transformations en cours du droit public
In France, since the 1990s, the traditional polarity public service / civil service is questioned by privatization and public services outsourcing on the one hand, and by contracting and "managerialization" of civil service on the other hand. These trends are also observed in China in the construction of a public services system from 1990s, and in the establishment of a civil service decided in the late 1980s and endorsed by the Law of 27 April 2005 on Public Servants. In spite of the political and cultural differences between the two countries, there is a converging movement : the public administration steps back from the public services management, while the private law grows its influence on the civil service law. Public law, as it traditionally governs the public service and the civil service, is therefore challenged both in its scope and in its substance. As the relationship between public services and civil service distends, the correlation between the purposes of state and the administrative structures is less obvious. In this context, the comparison of French and Chinese laws illuminates the ongoing transformations of public law

La thèse traite les questions abordées par la vulnérabilité, la décentralisation fiscale et les services publics en Chine. Le processus de développement était remarquable avec une croissance phénoménale et avec une réduction de la pauvreté massive. En même temps, il y avait de grandes réformes dans les secteurs publics notamment dans les domaines de l'éducation et de la santé. Le thème de la thèse est contemporain puisque la perspective de la vulnérabilité est considérée un défi important pour résoudre le problème de la pauvreté. Celle-ci est liée étroitement aux politiques menées dans le secteur public en général, plus précisément dans la décentralisation fiscale. La thèse présente une méthodologie pour estimer l'évolution de la vulnérabilité par région en Chine. Cela est fait à travers des actifs liquides, la capitale humaine et la santé publique. La vulnérabilité est estimée par un indice de la décomposition de Theil et celle- ci est introduite dans une régression logistique. La conclusion est la suivante : Premièrement, les actifs liquides contribuent à une réduction de la vulnérabilité. En revanche, la santé publique ne réduit pas la vulnérabilité. Deuxièmement, la région Ouest et la région Intérieur ont une vulnérabilité plus élevée par rapport à la région Est. Troisième, l'inégalité dans une région contribue 20-30% à la vulnérabilité, cependant, celle-là entre les régions contribue 80-70% à la vulnérabilité. La recherche dans la thèse montre également que les services publics ont un effet déterminant à la décentralisation fiscale en utilisant le MCO, les effets fixés, la DMC et la DMC avec les effets fixés. Ceux-ci sont appliques aux différentes variables de la décentralisation fiscale, respectivement, les dépenses publiques, les revenus publics, les dépenses publiques extrabudgetaires et les revenus publics extrabudgetaires. La conclusion est que la qualité dans le secteur d'éducatif au niveau secondaire et supérieure ont des impacts négatifs sur la décentralisation fiscale probablement à cause des effets de « spill-over » qui sont liées aux migrations, au coût fixe (au niveau supérieure) et à l'économie d'échelle. En revanche, le secteur de la santé n'a presque aucun effet. En plus, les revenus extrabudgétaires ainsi que les dépenses extrabudgétaires ont une corrélation très forte. La thèse aborde également une analyse de l ' impact sur la vulnérabilité, mesurée avec la variable de la consommation alimentaire, par les qualités des services publics dans les secteurs de l'éducation et dans la santé publique. Celle-ci est faite à travers le MCO, les effets fixés, la DMC et la DMC avec les effets fixés. En plus, un test de robustesse est introduit avec un retard de 1 et 2 ans. La conclusion est les suivants : Premièrement, la qualité des services publics dans l'éducation aux niveaux secondaire et supérieur a des impacts négatifs sur la vulnérabilité. Deuxièmement, l'éducation au niveau primaire augmente la vulnérabilité, probablement à cause de l 'inégalité. Troisièmement, la qualité des services publics dans le secteur de la santé a peu des effets sur la vulnérabilité.
La recherche dans la thèse est fondée sur la base des données suivants : (i) China Datacenter de Université de Michigan sur le service public; (ii) Annuaire statistique de la Chine; (iii) Prof. Yiu Por Chen, Université de DePaul à Chicago sur la décentralisation politique ; (iv) Prof. Belton M. Fleicher et Prof Min Qiang, Université d'Ohio sur le capital humain ; et (v) Prof. Jing Jin de John Hopkins Université et Prof. Heng-fu Zou, Banque Mondiale sur la décentralisation fiscale. La recommandation politique de la thèse est que la vulnérabilité peut être réduire substantiellement par une politique du service social bien ciblé. Cependant, la décentralisation fiscale en Chine a suscité l 'introduction de frais d ' usage qui est devenu une barrière pour accéder aux services essentiels, notamment dans la région rurale. C'est la raison pour laquelle la décentralisation fiscale devrait être accompagnée d ' une enveloppe fiscale pour la région pauvre afin d 'assurer les services publics pour tous les citoyens de la Chine

The main objective of this dissertation is to provide a comprehensive picture of the evolution and current performance of the market-oriented model of public service television in Chile. The focus is largely on the commercially-funded stateowned television network, Television Nacional de Chile (TVN). This thesis argues that Public Service Broadcasting (PSB) is still valid and necessary, yet the means to achieve this ideal have evolved and require some fresh thinking; such as the way forward provided by this case study. This work attempts to describe TVN's main political, economical, and managerial characteristics when delivering PSB according to television law, considering the evolution of the media in Chile and Latin America. For this purpose, the analysis integrates the political economy of the media from a managerial and regulatory perspective. The work is divided into two main parts. The first explains the current situation of PSB in the industrialised world, and also deals with the peculiar development of Chilean broadcasting within Latin America. The second part is the most important because it assesses the Chilean model at its present state. Nowadays TVN is an influential counterweight to authoritarian entrenchments as well as a booster of innovation and growth of the audio-visual sector. Its promarket orientation prevents traditional forms of government manipulation, it is coherent with overall macroeconomic policy, and introduces awareness for the audience's preferences. But this case also has important contradictions that need to be dealt with in order to enhance its contribution to social welfare and democracy. The thesis assumes that PSB -a Western European concept- has been possible in Chile because of a relatively extended republican tradition, and because of the effectiveness and probity of its public institutions. Nevertheless, as a developing country Chile has also suffered poverty, economic instability, and a prolonged military dictatorship (1973-1990) among other problems. These factors explain the differences between Chilean public television and its counterparts in the industrialised world, yet at the same time they reveal a special need for such a service despite all the technological changes that are taking place.

Following the publication of Perry and Wise’s essay on public service motivation (PSM) in 1990 and Perry’s PSM measurement scale in 1996, the concept of public service motivation has attracted wide attention and empirical research on its definition, measurement and incidence in the past twenty years. However, little empirical research has been conducted on PSM in Hong Kong. This research is intended to examine the dimensionality and generalizability of PSM in Hong Kong by using self-administered survey instruments with two groups of different respondents. Group 1 consisted of 55 students of Master of Public Administration of the University of Hong Kong (mostly full time public servants) whilst Group 2 consisted of 78 undergraduates from different faculties in the same university. Two separate survey instruments were used for group 1 and group 2 respondents. All 40 items of Perry’s PSM dimensions were included in the two survey instruments with additional 7 items and 8 items added for group 1 and group 2 respectively. The additional items were introduced to measure the relationship of variables including organizational commitment and job expectation and PSM dimensions. The findings did not reveal the PSM level of group 1 was higher than group 2. However, females were found having relatively higher PSM level than males under the dimension of Attraction to Public Policy Making. The independent variable of Organization Commitment was strongly and positively correlated with the dimensions of Commitment to Public Interest, Civic Duty and Self Sacrifice while Job Expectation was strongly and positively correlated with the dimensions of Attraction to Public Policy Making, Social Justice, Civic Duty and Self Sacrifice. This research contributed to provide better understanding and knowledge of PSM in the Hong Kong context especially on the influence of the independent variables of organizational commitment and job expectation on PSM dimensions.
published_or_final_version
Public Administration
Master
Master of Public Administration

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has eliminated absolute poverty in 2020. Its recent national 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) highlights improving the quality of human capital as an essential goal. Research has shown that investing in early childhood development generates the highest rates of return and leads to better education, health, social, and economic outcomes. After decades of neglect, the government has been increasing investment in preschool education targeting children in ages 3–6 years since 2010. This paper recommends that a comprehensive and equitable early childhood development service system must be a priority in building essential public service systems.

The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.