Academic literature on the topic 'Severe storms – Forecasting – Case studies'

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Journal articles on the topic "Severe storms – Forecasting – Case studies"

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Tanamachi, Robin L., Daniel T. Dawson, and Loran Carleton Parker. "Students of Purdue Observing Tornadic Thunderstorms for Research (SPOTTR): A Severe Storms Field Work Course at Purdue University." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 6 (2020): E847—E868. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0025.1.

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Abstract A summer course has been developed at Purdue University that leverages students’ intrinsic desire to observe tornadoes as a motivator for learning severe storms forecasting. Relative to previous “storm chasing” courses described in the literature, the Students of Purdue Observing Tornadic Thunderstorms for Research (SPOTTR) course is enhanced by active learning exercises, career exploration activities, and the inclusion of research-grade meteorological instrumentation in order to provide an authentic in-field experiential learning scenario. After teaching severe weather forecasting sk
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Dupilka, Max L., and Gerhard W. Reuter. "Forecasting Tornadic Thunderstorm Potential in Alberta Using Environmental Sounding Data. Part II: Helicity, Precipitable Water, and Storm Convergence." Weather and Forecasting 21, no. 3 (2006): 336–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf922.1.

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Abstract Sounding parameters are examined to determine whether they can help distinguish between Alberta, Canada, severe thunderstorms that spawn significant tornadoes (F2–F4), weak tornadoes (F0–F1), or nontornadic severe storms producing large hail. Parameters investigated included storm-relative helicity (SRH), precipitable water (PW), and storm convergence. The motivation for analyzing these parameters is that, in theory, they might affect the rate of change of vertical vorticity generation through vortex stretching, vortex tilting, and baroclinic effects. Precipitable water showed statist
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Gallo, Burkely T., Adam J. Clark, and Scott R. Dembek. "Forecasting Tornadoes Using Convection-Permitting Ensembles." Weather and Forecasting 31, no. 1 (2016): 273–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0134.1.

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Abstract Hourly maximum fields of simulated storm diagnostics from experimental versions of convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide valuable information regarding severe weather potential. While past studies have focused on predicting any type of severe weather, this study uses a CPM-based Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble initialized daily at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to derive tornado probabilities using a combination of simulated storm diagnostics and environmental parameters. Daily probabilistic tornado forecasts are developed from the NSSL-WRF en
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Mohebbi, Amin, Gabriel T. Green, Simin Akbariyeh, Fan Yu, Brendan J. Russo, and Edward J. Smaglik. "Development of Dust Storm Modeling for Use in Freeway Safety and Operations Management: An Arizona Case Study." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 5 (2019): 175–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119839978.

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Extreme weather conditions such as strong winds, hail, heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, and high air temperature impact roads, traffic, and operational decisions. Strong winds in arid regions may pick up fine dust particles and create massive blowing plumes dramatically reducing the visibility. This reduced visibility severely impairs driving ability causing catastrophic crashes. The purpose of this research was to investigate the impacts of dust storms on freeway safety and operations. Interstates 8, 10, 15, 17, 19, and 40 running through Arizona were studied in relation to dust loading and cr
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Flora, Montgomery L., Corey K. Potvin, and Louis J. Wicker. "Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread." Monthly Weather Review 146, no. 8 (2018): 2361–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-17-0374.1.

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Abstract As convection-allowing ensembles are routinely used to forecast the evolution of severe thunderstorms, developing an understanding of storm-scale predictability is critical. Using a full-physics numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework, the sensitivity of ensemble forecasts of supercells to initial condition (IC) uncertainty is investigated using a perfect model assumption. Three cases are used from the real-time NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) from the 2016 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. The forecast sensitivity to I
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Nigro, Melissa A., John J. Cassano, and Mark W. Seefeldt. "A Weather-Pattern-Based Approach to Evaluate the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Forecasts: Comparison to Automatic Weather Station Observations." Weather and Forecasting 26, no. 2 (2011): 184–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222444.1.

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Abstract Typical model evaluation strategies evaluate models over large periods of time (months, seasons, years, etc.) or for single case studies such as severe storms or other events of interest. The weather-pattern-based model evaluation technique described in this paper uses self-organizing maps to create a synoptic climatology of the weather patterns present over a region of interest, the Ross Ice Shelf for this analysis. Using the synoptic climatology, the performance of the model, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model run within the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System, is evaluate
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Mohd Nor, Mohd Fadzil Firdzaus, Christopher E. Holloway, and Peter M. Inness. "The Role of Local Orography on the Development of a Severe Rainfall Event over Western Peninsular Malaysia: A Case Study." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 5 (2020): 2191–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-18-0413.1.

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Abstract Severe rainfall events are common in western Peninsular Malaysia. They are usually short and intense, and occasionally cause flash floods and landslides. Forecasting these local events is difficult and understanding the mechanisms of the rainfall events is vital for the advancement of tropical weather forecasting. This study investigates the mechanisms responsible for a local heavy rainfall event on 2 May 2012 that caused flash floods and landslides using both observations and simulations with the limited-area high-resolution Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). Results suggest that prev
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Benjamin, Stanley G., Barry E. Schwartz, Edward J. Szoke, and Steven E. Koch. "The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85, no. 12 (2004): 1871–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-12-1871.

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An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were denied in order to assess the relative importance of the profiler data for short-range wind forecasts. Average verification statistics from a 13-day cold-season test period indicate that the profiler data have a positive impact on short-range (3–12 h) forecasts over the RUC domain containing the lower 48 United States, which are strongest at the 3-h proje
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Pryor, Kenneth L. "Progress and Developments of Downburst Prediction Applications of GOES." Weather and Forecasting 30, no. 5 (2015): 1182–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-14-00106.1.

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Abstract The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) has developed and evaluated a suite of products that assess convective storm–generated downburst potential derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-13–15 (GOES-13–15). The existing suite of downburst prediction algorithms employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental thermodynamic profiles for downburst occurrence. A diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential In
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Papaioannou, George, George Varlas, Galateia Terti, et al. "Flood Inundation Mapping at Ungauged Basins Using Coupled Hydrometeorological–Hydraulic Modelling: The Catastrophic Case of the 2006 Flash Flood in Volos City, Greece." Water 11, no. 11 (2019): 2328. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11112328.

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Nowadays, as extreme weather increasingly threatens human health and economy, early warning system approaches are critical for timely preparedness and response. Towards the implementation of a multi-model forecasting system for flood hazards, this study presents a coupled application of three (3) models: The WRF-ARW weather model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic model. A flash flood event that occurred on 9 October 2006 in Volos city, Greece, is used as a case study to assess the accuracy of the integrated modelling approach to simulate the flood hydrograph and f
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Severe storms – Forecasting – Case studies"

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Klotz, Adam M. "Social media and weather warnings : exploring the new parasocial relationships in weather forecasting." 2011. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1640183.

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The emergence and popularity of mobile and social media have transformed the nature of the parasocial relationship between weathercaster and audience. Two experts and nine television viewers were selected for qualitative interviewing via non-probability sampling to gain an understanding of how respondents’ growing use of social media and other emerging media has impacted the relationship with the local television weathercaster. Additionally, these interviews explored the ways in which these relationships have ultimately changed how viewers receive weather warnings. Storms producing strong stra
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Conference papers on the topic "Severe storms – Forecasting – Case studies"

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MacNicoll, Michael, Richard Akers, Krish Thiagarajan Sharman, and Wei-Ting Hsu. "Reduction in Mooring System Lifetime due to Corrosion and Severe Storms." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-19224.

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Abstract We report on a multi-year investigation into mechanisms of fatigue, corrosion, and abrasion on floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) mooring systems funded by the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). The project team examined the efficacy of standards-based design procedures as they relate to fatigue damage and material degradation. Best practice design encourages applying 50% of a mooring chain corrosion allowance to fatigue calculation. However, the project team concludes that this practice may underestimate fatigue damage when the corrosion rate is high relat
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