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Journal articles on the topic 'Severe storms – Forecasting – Case studies'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 13 February 2022

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1

Tanamachi, Robin L., Daniel T. Dawson, and Loran Carleton Parker. "Students of Purdue Observing Tornadic Thunderstorms for Research (SPOTTR): A Severe Storms Field Work Course at Purdue University." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 6 (2020): E847—E868. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0025.1.

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Abstract A summer course has been developed at Purdue University that leverages students’ intrinsic desire to observe tornadoes as a motivator for learning severe storms forecasting. Relative to previous “storm chasing” courses described in the literature, the Students of Purdue Observing Tornadic Thunderstorms for Research (SPOTTR) course is enhanced by active learning exercises, career exploration activities, and the inclusion of research-grade meteorological instrumentation in order to provide an authentic in-field experiential learning scenario. After teaching severe weather forecasting sk

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Dupilka, Max L., and Gerhard W. Reuter. "Forecasting Tornadic Thunderstorm Potential in Alberta Using Environmental Sounding Data. Part II: Helicity, Precipitable Water, and Storm Convergence." Weather and Forecasting 21, no. 3 (2006): 336–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf922.1.

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Abstract Sounding parameters are examined to determine whether they can help distinguish between Alberta, Canada, severe thunderstorms that spawn significant tornadoes (F2–F4), weak tornadoes (F0–F1), or nontornadic severe storms producing large hail. Parameters investigated included storm-relative helicity (SRH), precipitable water (PW), and storm convergence. The motivation for analyzing these parameters is that, in theory, they might affect the rate of change of vertical vorticity generation through vortex stretching, vortex tilting, and baroclinic effects. Precipitable water showed statist

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Gallo, Burkely T., Adam J. Clark, and Scott R. Dembek. "Forecasting Tornadoes Using Convection-Permitting Ensembles." Weather and Forecasting 31, no. 1 (2016): 273–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0134.1.

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Abstract Hourly maximum fields of simulated storm diagnostics from experimental versions of convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide valuable information regarding severe weather potential. While past studies have focused on predicting any type of severe weather, this study uses a CPM-based Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble initialized daily at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to derive tornado probabilities using a combination of simulated storm diagnostics and environmental parameters. Daily probabilistic tornado forecasts are developed from the NSSL-WRF en

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Mohebbi, Amin, Gabriel T. Green, Simin Akbariyeh, Fan Yu, Brendan J. Russo, and Edward J. Smaglik. "Development of Dust Storm Modeling for Use in Freeway Safety and Operations Management: An Arizona Case Study." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 5 (2019): 175–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119839978.

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Extreme weather conditions such as strong winds, hail, heavy rainfall, heavy snowfall, and high air temperature impact roads, traffic, and operational decisions. Strong winds in arid regions may pick up fine dust particles and create massive blowing plumes dramatically reducing the visibility. This reduced visibility severely impairs driving ability causing catastrophic crashes. The purpose of this research was to investigate the impacts of dust storms on freeway safety and operations. Interstates 8, 10, 15, 17, 19, and 40 running through Arizona were studied in relation to dust loading and cr

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Flora, Montgomery L., Corey K. Potvin, and Louis J. Wicker. "Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread." Monthly Weather Review 146, no. 8 (2018): 2361–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-17-0374.1.

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Abstract As convection-allowing ensembles are routinely used to forecast the evolution of severe thunderstorms, developing an understanding of storm-scale predictability is critical. Using a full-physics numerical weather prediction (NWP) framework, the sensitivity of ensemble forecasts of supercells to initial condition (IC) uncertainty is investigated using a perfect model assumption. Three cases are used from the real-time NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) from the 2016 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. The forecast sensitivity to I

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Nigro, Melissa A., John J. Cassano, and Mark W. Seefeldt. "A Weather-Pattern-Based Approach to Evaluate the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Forecasts: Comparison to Automatic Weather Station Observations." Weather and Forecasting 26, no. 2 (2011): 184–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222444.1.

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Abstract Typical model evaluation strategies evaluate models over large periods of time (months, seasons, years, etc.) or for single case studies such as severe storms or other events of interest. The weather-pattern-based model evaluation technique described in this paper uses self-organizing maps to create a synoptic climatology of the weather patterns present over a region of interest, the Ross Ice Shelf for this analysis. Using the synoptic climatology, the performance of the model, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model run within the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System, is evaluate

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Mohd Nor, Mohd Fadzil Firdzaus, Christopher E. Holloway, and Peter M. Inness. "The Role of Local Orography on the Development of a Severe Rainfall Event over Western Peninsular Malaysia: A Case Study." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 5 (2020): 2191–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-18-0413.1.

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Abstract Severe rainfall events are common in western Peninsular Malaysia. They are usually short and intense, and occasionally cause flash floods and landslides. Forecasting these local events is difficult and understanding the mechanisms of the rainfall events is vital for the advancement of tropical weather forecasting. This study investigates the mechanisms responsible for a local heavy rainfall event on 2 May 2012 that caused flash floods and landslides using both observations and simulations with the limited-area high-resolution Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). Results suggest that prev

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Benjamin, Stanley G., Barry E. Schwartz, Edward J. Szoke, and Steven E. Koch. "The Value of Wind Profiler Data in U.S. Weather Forecasting." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85, no. 12 (2004): 1871–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-12-1871.

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An assessment of the value of data from the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) on weather forecasting is presented. A series of experiments was conducted using the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model/assimilation system in which various data sources were denied in order to assess the relative importance of the profiler data for short-range wind forecasts. Average verification statistics from a 13-day cold-season test period indicate that the profiler data have a positive impact on short-range (3–12 h) forecasts over the RUC domain containing the lower 48 United States, which are strongest at the 3-h proje

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Pryor, Kenneth L. "Progress and Developments of Downburst Prediction Applications of GOES." Weather and Forecasting 30, no. 5 (2015): 1182–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-14-00106.1.

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Abstract The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) has developed and evaluated a suite of products that assess convective storm–generated downburst potential derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-13–15 (GOES-13–15). The existing suite of downburst prediction algorithms employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental thermodynamic profiles for downburst occurrence. A diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential In

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Papaioannou, George, George Varlas, Galateia Terti, et al. "Flood Inundation Mapping at Ungauged Basins Using Coupled Hydrometeorological–Hydraulic Modelling: The Catastrophic Case of the 2006 Flash Flood in Volos City, Greece." Water 11, no. 11 (2019): 2328. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11112328.

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Nowadays, as extreme weather increasingly threatens human health and economy, early warning system approaches are critical for timely preparedness and response. Towards the implementation of a multi-model forecasting system for flood hazards, this study presents a coupled application of three (3) models: The WRF-ARW weather model, the WRF-Hydro hydrological model, and the HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic model. A flash flood event that occurred on 9 October 2006 in Volos city, Greece, is used as a case study to assess the accuracy of the integrated modelling approach to simulate the flood hydrograph and f

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Hollan, Michael A., and Brian C. Ancell. "Ensemble Mean Storm-Scale Performance in the Presence of Nonlinearity." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 12 (2015): 5115–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00417.1.

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Abstract The use of ensembles in numerical weather prediction models is becoming an increasingly effective method of forecasting. Many studies have shown that using the mean of an ensemble as a deterministic solution produces the most accurate forecasts. However, the mean will eventually lose its usefulness as a deterministic forecast in the presence of nonlinearity. At synoptic scales, this appears to occur between 12- and 24-h forecast time, and on storm scales it may occur significantly faster due to stronger nonlinearity. When this does occur, the question then becomes the following: Shoul

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Funatsu, B. M., C. Claud, and J. P. Chaboureau. "Two case studies of severe storms in the Mediterranean using AMSU." Advances in Geosciences 12 (June 27, 2007): 19–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-12-19-2007.

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Abstract. Mediterranean storms and their associated upper level features are diagnosed here using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations. AMSU-A channel 8 is used to identify upper-level intrusions of stratospheric air, which are often present upstream of heavy precipitating areas, while a combination of AMSU-B channels 3 and 5 is chosen to discriminate moderate to heavily precipitating areas. This precipitation detection method provides results that are in good agreement with TRMM rainfall product and independent ground-based precipitation data. These tools allow us to follow th

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Hosek, J., P. Musilek, E. Lozowski, and P. Pytlak. "Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 2 (2011): 587–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-587-2011.

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Abstract. The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simu

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Horváth, Á., F. Ács, and H. Breuer. "On the relationship between soil, vegetation and severe convective storms: Hungarian case studies." Atmospheric Research 93, no. 1-3 (2009): 66–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.007.

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Tajbakhsh, S., P. Ghafarian, and F. Sahraian. "Instability indices and forecasting thunderstorms: the case of 30 April 2009." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 2 (2012): 403–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-403-2012.

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Abstract. In this paper, one meteorological case study for two Iranian airports are presented. Attempts have been made to study the predefined threshold amounts of some instability indices such as vertical velocity and relative humidity. Two important output variables from a numerical weather prediction model have been used to survey thunderstorms. The climatological state of thunder days in Iran has been determined to aid in choosing the airports for the case studies. The synoptic pattern, atmospheric thermodynamics and output from a numerical weather prediction model have been studied to eva

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Hart, John A., and Ariel E. Cohen. "The Challenge of Forecasting Significant Tornadoes from June to October Using Convective Parameters." Weather and Forecasting 31, no. 6 (2016): 2075–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-16-0005.1.

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Abstract This study is an application of the Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM), which objectively assesses conditional severe thunderstorm probabilities based on archived hourly mesoscale data across the United States collected from 2006 to 2014. In the present study, SSCRAM is used to assess the utility of severe thunderstorm parameters commonly employed by forecasters in anticipating thunderstorms that produce significant tornadoes (i.e., causing F2/EF2 or greater damage) from June through October. The utility during June–October is compared to that during other mo

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Schmid, W., H.-H. Schiesser, and B. Bauer-Messmer. "Supercell storms in Switzerland: case studies and implications for nowcasting severe winds with Doppler radar." Meteorological Applications 4, no. 1 (1997): 49–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1350482797000388.

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Potvin, Corey K., Jacob R. Carley, Adam J. Clark, et al. "Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment." Weather and Forecasting 34, no. 5 (2019): 1395–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0056.1.

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Abstract The 2016–18 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFE) featured the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE), a coordinated convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble framework designed to provide empirical guidance for development of operational CAM systems. The 2017 CLUE included 81 members that all used 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the CONUS, enabling direct comparison of forecasts generated using different dynamical cores, physics schemes, and initialization procedures. This study uses forecasts from several of the 2017 CLUE members and one ope

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Sherburn, Keith D., and Matthew D. Parker. "The Development of Severe Vortices within Simulated High-Shear, Low-CAPE Convection." Monthly Weather Review 147, no. 6 (2019): 2189–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-18-0246.1.

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Abstract Environments characterized by large values of vertical wind shear and modest convective available potential energy (CAPE) are colloquially referred to as high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments. Convection within these environments represents a considerable operational forecasting challenge. Generally, it has been determined that large low-level wind shear and steep low-level lapse rates—along with synoptic-scale forcing for ascent—are common ingredients supporting severe HSLC convection. This work studies the specific processes that lead to the development of strong surface vortices

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Parvin, Nader, Emam Ali Asheri, Ebrahim Mesgari, and Abdolla Ahmadi. "The Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric Conditions, Severe Storms Zab Basin in Iran (A Case Study of Cut off Low Synoptic Pattern)." International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 61 (October 2015): 39–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ilshs.61.39.

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Atmospheric circulation patterns is the most important method of identification of environmental change that, it is useful For purposes such as weather forecasting, predict natural events (air pollution, floods, drought, etc). The aim of this study is to analyze the synoptic conditions of severe storms is Zab basin. Daily data of wind speed over the period 1364/01/01 to 1390/12/29 of three synoptic stations was taken from the department of meteorology. Given the scale of temporal and spatial distribution, wind speed and comprehensiveness of the three threshold size and calculate the 90th perce

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Roebber, Paul J. "Visualizing Multiple Measures of Forecast Quality." Weather and Forecasting 24, no. 2 (2009): 601–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008waf2222159.1.

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Abstract A method for visually representing multiple measures of dichotomous (yes–no) forecast quality (probability of detection, false alarm ratio, bias, and critical success index) in a single diagram is presented. Illustration of the method is provided using performance statistics from two previously published forecast verification studies (snowfall density and convective initiation) and a verification of several new forecast datasets: Storm Prediction Center forecasts of severe storms (nontornadic and tornadic), Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecasts of heavy precipitation (greate

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Li, Xuanli, and John R. Mecikalski. "Impact of the Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar Data on Two Convective Storms with a Warm-Rain Radar Forward Operator." Monthly Weather Review 140, no. 7 (2012): 2147–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00090.1.

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Abstract The dual-polarization (dual pol) Doppler radar can transmit/receive both horizontally and vertically polarized power returns. The dual-pol radar measurements have been shown to provide a more accurate precipitation estimate compared to traditional radars. In this study, the horizontal reflectivity ZH, differential reflectivity ZDR, specific differential phase KDP, and radial velocity VR collected by the C-band Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) are assimilated for two convective storms. A warm-rain scheme is constructed to assimilate ZH, ZDR, and KDP da

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Kenyon, Jaymes S., Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, and Michael S. Evans. "The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms." Weather and Forecasting 35, no. 1 (2020): 83–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0038.1.

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Abstract The spatial distribution of snowfall accumulation accompanying winter storms is a product of both snowfall rate and duration. Winter storms are commonly associated with mesoscale snowbands that can strongly modulate snowfall accumulation. Although the development of mesoscale snowbands can usually be anticipated, snowband residence time at a fixed location is often a forecasting challenge. However, given that snowband residence time is related to characteristics of band motion, an improved understanding of band motion presents an opportunity to improve snowfall-accumulation forecasts.

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Rossi, Pekka J., Vesa Hasu, Kalle Halmevaara, Antti Mäkelä, Jarmo Koistinen, and Heikki Pohjola. "Real-Time Hazard Approximation of Long-Lasting Convective Storms Using Emergency Data." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 30, no. 3 (2013): 538–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-11-00106.1.

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Abstract Convective storms cause several types of damage, including economic and ecological losses, every year. This paper focuses on an automatic hazard-level determination of convective storms based on a largely unused information source: real-time emergency report data. In addition to the location of the report, the emergency response centers classify cases into different emergency types and deliver a free-form verbal description of the incident for online use. This study uses archived weather-related emergency reports to determine hazard levels for convective storms detected by the weather

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Hartigan, Joshua, Shev MacNamara, Lance Leslie, and Milton Speer. "High resolution simulations of a tornadic storm affecting Sydney." ANZIAM Journal 62 (May 23, 2021): C1—C15. http://dx.doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v62.16113.

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On 16 December 2015 a severe thunderstorm and associated tornado affected Sydney causing widespread damage and insured losses of $206 million. Severe impacts occurred in Kurnell, requiring repairs to Sydney's desalination plant which supplies up to 15% of Sydney water during drought, with repairs only completed at the end of 2018. Climatologically, this storm was unusual as it occurred during the morning and had developed over the ocean, rather than developing inland during the afternoon as is the case for many severe storms impacting the Sydney region. Simulations of the Kurnell storm were co

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Zarei, Mohammad, Seyyed Ashkezari, and Mehrdad Yari. "The investigation of the function of the central courtyard in moderating the harsh environmental conditions of a hot and dry climate (Case study: City of Yazd, Iran)." Spatium, no. 38 (2017): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/spat1738001z.

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As one of the arid areas of Iran, Yazd is always exposed to extreme winds with dust and shifting sands. Therefore, the architectural principles in the residential architecture of the city need be adapted to such environmental conditions in order to minimize the influence of the severe winds on the interior spaces. This study investigates the influence of storms on the interior space of the central courtyards in Yazd, constructed during the Muzaffarid, Safavid and Qajar periods using CFD simulation. Three-dimensional models were prepared via Gambit software and studied in Fluent software. The w

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Chen, Yaodeng, Zheng Yu, Wei Han, Jing He, and Min Chen. "Case Study of a Retrieval Method of 3D Proxy Reflectivity from FY-4A Lightning Data and Its Impact on the Assimilation and Forecasting for Severe Rainfall Storms." Remote Sensing 12, no. 7 (2020): 1165. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12071165.

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As the first Geostationary Satellite with the LMI (Lightning Mapping Imager) instrument aboard running over the eastern hemisphere, FY-4A (Feng-Yun-4A) can better indicate severe convection and compensate for the limitations of radar observation in temporal and spatial resolution. In order to realize the application of FY-4A lightning data in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, a logarithmic relationship between FY-4A lightning density and maximum radar reflectivity is presented to convert FY-4A lightning data into maximum FY-4A proxy reflectivity. Then, according to the profiles of rad

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Elsberry, Russell L., Hsiao-Chung Tsai, and Mary S. Jordan. "Extended-Range Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Events during 2012 Using the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble Predictions*." Weather and Forecasting 29, no. 2 (2014): 271–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00104.1.

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Abstract Previous studies have demonstrated the capability of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 51-member, 32-day ensemble to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) events (formation and tracks) in the western North Pacific on the extended range (5–30 days). In this study, the performance of the ECMWF ensemble in extended-range forecasting of Atlantic TCs during May–December 2012 is evaluated using similar approaches. The conclusion from this evaluation is that Atlantic TC events have lower forecastability using the ECMWF ensemble than in the western North Pacific. Hurrica

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Ribeiro, Wanda Maria do Nascimento, José Ricardo Santos Souza, Márcio Nirlando Gomes Lopes, Renata Kelen Cardoso Câmara, Edson José Paulino Rocha, and Arthur C. Almeida. "Lightning and precipitation produced by severe weather systems over Belém, Brazil." Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 29, spe (2014): 41–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-778620130039.

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CG Lightning flashes events monitored by a LDN of the Amazon Protection System, which included 12 LPATS IV VAISALA sensors distributed over eastern Amazonia, were analyzed during four severe rainstorm occurrences in Belem-PA-Brazil, in the 2006-2007 period. These selected case studies referred to rainfall events, which produced more than 25 mm/hour, or more than 40 mm/ 2 hours of precipitation rate totals, registered by a tipping bucket automatic high-resolution rain gauge, located at 1º 47' 53" S and 48º 30' 16" W. Centered at this location, a 30 ,10 and 5 km radius circles were drawn by mean

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Allabakash, S., S. Lim, V. Chandrasekar, K. H. Min, J. Choi, and B. Jang. "X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Snow Growth Processes of a Severe Winter Storm: Case of 12 December 2013 in South Korea." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36, no. 7 (2019): 1217–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-18-0076.1.

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AbstractThe characteristics of microphysical processes of a severe winter storm that occurred on the Korean Peninsula on 12 December 2013 was studied in this work for the first time via X-band dual-polarization weather radar observations. A new range–height indicator (RHI) scan-based quasi-vertical profile methodology, in which polarimetric radar variables were averaged at each height of the RHI scan, was introduced to investigate the snow microphysics, and the obtained polarimetric radar signatures served as fingerprints of the dendritic growth, aggregation, and riming processes. Enhanced dif

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Mo, Ruping, Melinda M. Brugman, Jason A. Milbrandt, et al. "Impacts of Hydrometeor Drift on Orographic Precipitation: Two Case Studies of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in British Columbia, Canada." Weather and Forecasting 34, no. 5 (2019): 1211–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0176.1.

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Abstract Two severe winter storms in 2016 and 2017 caused by landfalling atmospheric rivers over British Columbia (BC) are investigated in this study. Our main concern is the impact of hydrometeor drift on the orographic precipitation. It is shown that the dominant contribution to the windward orographic precipitation was from the horizontal moisture convergence. The precipitation distributions across southern BC were also influenced by the convergence/divergence of condensed water due to the wind-driven effect on hydrometeors. Observed hourly and daily precipitation amounts are used to verify

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Gallo, Burkely T., Christina P. Kalb, John Halley Gotway, et al. "Initial Development and Testing of a Convection-Allowing Model Scorecard." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 12 (2019): ES367—ES384. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-18-0218.1.

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Abstract Evaluation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is critical for both forecasters and researchers. Through such evaluation, forecasters can understand the strengths and weaknesses of NWP guidance, and researchers can work to improve NWP models. However, evaluating high-resolution convection-allowing models (CAMs) requires unique verification metrics tailored to high-resolution output, particularly when considering extreme events. Metrics used and fields evaluated often differ between verification studies, hindering the effort to broadly compare CAMs. The purpose of this article is to

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Fierro, Alexandre O., Edward R. Mansell, Conrad L. Ziegler, and Donald R. MacGorman. "Application of a Lightning Data Assimilation Technique in the WRF-ARW Model at Cloud-Resolving Scales for the Tornado Outbreak of 24 May 2011." Monthly Weather Review 140, no. 8 (2012): 2609–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00299.1.

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Abstract This study presents the assimilation of total lightning data to help initiate convection at cloud-resolving scales within a numerical weather prediction model. The test case is the 24 May 2011 Oklahoma tornado outbreak, which was characterized by an exceptional synoptic/mesoscale setup for the development of long-lived supercells with large destructive tornadoes. In an attempt to reproduce the observed storms at a predetermined analysis time, total lightning data were assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and analyzed via a suite of simple numerical experim

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Kain, John S., Steve Willington, Adam J. Clark, et al. "Collaborative Efforts between the United States and United Kingdom to Advance Prediction of High-Impact Weather." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. 5 (2017): 937–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00199.1.

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Abstract In recent years, a growing partnership has emerged between the Met Office and the designated U.S. national centers for expertise in severe weather research and forecasting, that is, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The driving force behind this partnership is a compelling set of mutual interests related to predicting and understanding high-impact weather and using high-resolution numerical weather prediction models as foundational tools to explore these interests. The forum f

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Xie, Lian, Shaowu Bao, Leonard J. Pietrafesa, Kristen Foley, and Montserrat Fuentes. "A Real-Time Hurricane Surface Wind Forecasting Model: Formulation and Verification." Monthly Weather Review 134, no. 5 (2006): 1355–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3126.1.

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Abstract A real-time hurricane wind forecast model is developed by 1) incorporating an asymmetric effect into the Holland hurricane wind model; 2) using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) hurricane forecast guidance for prognostic modeling; and 3) assimilating the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) real-time buoy data into the model’s initial wind field. The method is validated using all 2003 and 2004 Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes. The results show that 6- and 12-h forecast winds using the asymmetric hurricane wind model are stat

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Cintineo, John L., Michael J. Pavolonis, Justin M. Sieglaff, Lee Cronce, and Jason Brunner. "NOAA ProbSevere v2.0—ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor." Weather and Forecasting 35, no. 4 (2020): 1523–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0242.1.

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ABSTRACTSevere convective storms are hazardous to both life and property and thus their accurate and timely prediction is imperative. In response to this critical need to help fulfill the mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin (UW) have developed NOAA ProbSevere—an operational short-term forecasting subsystem within the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, providing storm-based probabilistic guidance to severe convective hazards. ProbSevere extracts

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Li, Jun, Chian-Yi Liu, Peng Zhang, and Timothy J. Schmit. "Applications of Full Spatial Resolution Space-Based Advanced Infrared Soundings in the Preconvection Environment." Weather and Forecasting 27, no. 2 (2012): 515–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05057.1.

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Abstract Advanced infrared (IR) sounders such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) provide atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles with high vertical resolution and high accuracy in preconvection environments. The derived atmospheric stability indices such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and lifted index (LI) from advanced IR soundings can provide critical information 1 ~ 6 h before the development of severe convective storms. Three convective storms are selected for the evaluation of applying AIRS full spatial

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Walser, André, Marco Arpagaus, Christof Appenzeller, and Martin Leutbecher. "The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms." Monthly Weather Review 134, no. 10 (2006): 2877–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3210.1.

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Abstract This paper studies the impact of different initial condition perturbation methods and horizontal resolutions on short-range limited-area ensemble predictions for two severe winter storms. The methodology consists of 51-member ensembles generated with the global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which are downscaled with the nonhydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell. The resolution dependency is studied by comparing three different limited-area ensembles: (a) 80-km grid spacing, (b) 10-km grid spacing, and (c) 10-km grid sp

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Tsurutani, Bruce T., Gurbax S. Lakhina, and Rajkumar Hajra. "The physics of space weather/solar-terrestrial physics (STP): what we know now and what the current and future challenges are." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 27, no. 1 (2020): 75–119. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-75-2020.

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Abstract. Major geomagnetic storms are caused by unusually intense solar wind southward magnetic fields that impinge upon the Earth's magnetosphere (Dungey, 1961). How can we predict the occurrence of future interplanetary events? Do we currently know enough of the underlying physics and do we have sufficient observations of solar wind phenomena that will impinge upon the Earth's magnetosphere? We view this as the most important challenge in space weather. We discuss the case for magnetic clouds (MCs), interplanetary sheaths upstream of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), corotating

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Pozo, D., I. Borrajero, J. C. Marín, and G. B. Raga. "A numerical study of cell merger over Cuba – Part I: implementation of the ARPS/MM5 models." Annales Geophysicae 24, no. 11 (2006): 2781–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-24-2781-2006.

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Abstract. On 21 July 2001 a number of severe storms developed over the region of Camaguey, Cuba, which were observed by radar. A numerical simulation was performed in order to realistically reproduce the development of the storms observed that day. The mesoscale model MM5 was used to determine the initial, boundary and update conditions for the storm-scale simulation with the model ARPS. Changes to the source code of ARPS were made in order to assimilate the output from the MM5 as input data and a new land-use file with a 1-km horizontal resolution for the Cuban territory was created. A case r

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Hochedez, J. F., A. Zhukov, E. Robbrecht, et al. "Solar weather monitoring." Annales Geophysicae 23, no. 9 (2005): 3149–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-23-3149-2005.

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Abstract. Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC) at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time m

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Coll-Hidalgo, Patricia, Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, and Pedro Manuel González-Jardines. "Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes in the WRF-ARW Model for Numerical Wind Forecast in José Martí International Airport." Environmental Sciences Proceedings 4, no. 1 (2020): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ecas2020-08121.

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A sensitivity study was developed with Lin, Morrison 2-moment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) single-moment 5-class (WSM5), and WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6) microphysics schemes available in the weather research and forecasting-advanced research WRF (WRF-ARW) for the numerical forecast of the wind field at José Martí International Airport, in Cuba. The selection of these schemes was based on their use in numerical weather forecast systems operating in Cuba. As case studies, five storms associated with synoptic patterns that cause dangerous conditions at this aerodrome were selected

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Zirulnik, Alexander, Dan Neal, and Joshua S. Carson. "748 The Calm After the Storm? Burn Injury Incidence Following Hurricanes and Tropical Storms." Journal of Burn Care & Research 41, Supplement_1 (2020): S207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jbcr/iraa024.330.

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Abstract Introduction In recent years, we have noted a pattern of a surges in burn admissions occurring in the wake of some of the larger storm events occurring in our region. Many injuries incurred in the activities related to the storms’ aftermath— accelerate related burns from burning debris, generator explosions, and electrical repair burns. It is suspected that conditions created by larger storms may increase the population-wide risk for burn injuries for some time after the storm itself. If trues, this would suggest a need for more concerted burn prevention efforts in the wake of major n

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Betz, H. D., K. Schmidt, W. P. Oettinger, and B. Montag. "Cell-tracking with lightning data from LINET." Advances in Geosciences 17 (July 29, 2008): 55–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-55-2008.

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Abstract. A new lightning detection network (LINET) has been developed at the University of Munich, which locates and reports both cloud discharges and cloud-to-ground strokes with high accuracy. The network started operation in May 2006; since then lightning data for Europe are being delivered to many scientific groups, and to the German Weather Service (DWD) on an operational basis (powered by nowcast GmbH, Germany). Using about 90 lightning sensors in 17 countries, an area from longitude 10° W–25° E to latitude 35° N–65° N is covered. Further expansion is in the planning stage with the aim

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Branch, Oliver, Thomas Schwitalla, Marouane Temimi, et al. "Seasonal and diurnal performance of daily forecasts with WRF V3.8.1 over the United Arab Emirates." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 3 (2021): 1615–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1615-2021.

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Abstract. Effective numerical weather forecasting is vital in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where extreme events like heat waves, flash floods, and dust storms are severe. Hence, accurate forecasting of quantities like surface temperatures and humidity is very important. To date, there have been few seasonal-to-annual scale verification studies with WRF at high spatial and temporal resolution. This study employs a convection-permitting scale (2.7 km grid scale) simulation with WRF with Noah-MP, in daily forecast mode, from 1 January to 30 November 2015. WRF was verified usin

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Mathias, Luca, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto. "Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 5 (2019): 1023–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019.

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Abstract. A major linear mesoscale convective system caused severe weather over northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands and northwestern Germany on 3 January 2014. The storm was classified as a cold-season derecho with widespread wind gusts exceeding 25 m s−1. While such derechos occasionally develop along cold fronts of extratropical cyclones, this system formed in a postfrontal air mass along a baroclinic surface pressure trough and was favoured by a strong large-scale air ascent induced by an intense mid-level jet. The lower-tropospheric environment was characterised by weak latent instab

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Tsonevsky, Ivan, Charles A. Doswell, and Harold E. Brooks. "Early Warnings of Severe Convection Using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index." Weather and Forecasting 33, no. 3 (2018): 857–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0030.1.

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Abstract ECMWF provides the ensemble-based extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) products to facilitate forecasting severe weather in the medium range. Exploiting the ingredients-based method of forecasting deep moist convection, two parameters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a composite CAPE–shear parameter, have been recently added to the EFI/SOT, targeting severe convective weather. Verification results based on the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (ROCA) show high skill of both EFIs at discriminating between severe and nonsevere conve

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Marcus, Steven, Jinwon Kim, Toshio Chin, David Danielson, and Jayme Laber. "Influence of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor Retrievals on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Southern California." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46, no. 11 (2007): 1828–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jamc1502.1.

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Abstract The effects of precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill are examined over two flood-prone regions of Southern California: Santa Barbara (SB) and Ventura County (VC). Two sets of QPFs are made, one using the initial water vapor field from the NCEP 40-km Eta initial analysis, and another in which the initial Eta water vapor field is modified by incorporating the PWV data from the SCIGN receivers. Lateral boundary data for the QPFs, as well as the hydrostatic component of the G

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Taiwo Amoo, Oseni, and Bloodless Dzwairo. "Trend analysis and artificial neural networks forecasting for rainfall prediction." Environmental Economics 7, no. 4 (2016): 149–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.07(4-1).2016.07.

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The growing severe damage and sustained nature of the recent drought in some parts of the globe have resulted in the need to conduct studies relating to rainfall forecasting and effective integrated water resources management. This research examines and analyzes the use and ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in forecasting future trends of rainfall indices for Mkomazi Basin, South Africa. The approach used the theory of back propagation neural networks, after which a model was developed to predict the future rainfall occurrence using an environmental fed variable for closing up. Once

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Grasso, Lewis, Daniel T. Lindsey, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Adam Clark, Dan Bikos, and Scott R. Dembek. "Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery." Monthly Weather Review 142, no. 10 (2014): 3635–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00005.1.

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Abstract Synthetic satellite imagery can be employed to evaluate simulated cloud fields. Past studies have revealed that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) single-moment 6-class (WSM6) microphysics scheme in the Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) produces less upper-level ice clouds within synthetic images compared to observations. Synthetic Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-13 (GOES-13) imagery at 10.7 μm of simulated cloud fields from the 4-km National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF-ARW is compared to observed GOES-13 imagery. Histograms suggest that too few points

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