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Journal articles on the topic 'Shadow GDP'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 28 May 2022

Last updated: 30 July 2025

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1

Temesgen, Bawoke Atnafu, Belainew Belete Yalew, Kassie Dessie Nigussie, Meselu Alamnie Mulugeta, and Tadele Bayu Genet. "Estimating the Size of Shadow Economy in Amhara Region, Ethiopia." Afrika Focus 38, no. 1 (2025): 59–82. https://doi.org/10.1163/2031356x-20250104.

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Abstract Stable and sustainable economic growth depends on an effective domestic resource mobilisation strategy. Ethiopia’s tax share of gdp is relatively low. One possible explanation for such a low tax-to-gdp ratio is the existence of a substantial shadow economy. There is proof that the shadow economy is extremely prevalent in Ethiopia. Despite a few attempts, Ethiopia’s shadow economy has not been extensively examined. There are three ways to estimate the size of the shadow economy: the direct, indirect and model approaches. In this study, we estimate the size of the shadow economy using a

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Schneider, Friedrich, and Bettina Hametner. "The Shadow Economy in Colombia: Size and Effects on Economic Growth." Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 20, no. 2 (2014): 293–325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/peps-2013-0059.

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AbstractUsing the currency demand approach, size and development of Colombia’s shadow economy are estimated over the period from 1980 to 2012. The results show a great extent of shadow economic activity varying over time between 27 and 56% of GDP. The most important factors driving the shadow economy are indirect taxation and unemployment. Analyzing the interaction between shadow and official economy, the shadow economy has a negative effect on the official one. Average growth of real per capita GDP is 1.86% between 1980 and 2012, without shadow economy it would have been higher around 0.12 pe

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Saraswati, Saraswati, and Neli Agustina. "The Impact of Human Capital on Shadow Economy in Indonesia." Economics and Finance in Indonesia 66, no. 1 (2020): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.47291/efi.v66i1.629.

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Shadow economy is a market for legal and illegal goods and services that escape recording and estimation of GDP. It can cause inaccurate estimation of GDP, declining tax revenue, and less precise economic policies. Improving the quality of human capital, both in education and health dimensions, can reduce shadow economy. The research aims to estimate shadow economy and analyze the influence of the quality of human capital on shadow economy in Indonesia. Applying time series multiple linear regression analysis, the findings show that the average shadow economy in Indonesia is 28.97 percent, cha

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Schneider, Friedrich, and Dominik H. Enste. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences." Journal of Economic Literature 38, no. 1 (2000): 77–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77.

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Using various methods, the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing, transition, and OECD countries is estimated. Average size varies from 12 percent of GDP for OECD countries, to 23 percent for transition countries and 39 percent for developing countries. Increasing taxation and social security contributions combined with rising state regulations are driving forces for the increase of the shadow economy, especially in OECD countries. According to some findings, corruption has a positive impact on the size of the shadow economy, and a growing shadow economy has a negative effect on official

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Buszko, Andrzej. "Labour Market Flexibility in the Context of the Shadow Economy for the Construction Industry." Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia 19, no. 4 (2020): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/aspe.2020.19.4.37.

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The article analyses labour market flexibility in the context of the shadow economy. The main research problem is devoted to the flexibility of the construction labour market in relation to the level of labourers who work in a country's shadow economy. The following hypothesis was adopted: Flexibility of the labour market for the construction industry decreases with an increase in the level of the shadow economy. The MIMIC approach was used to calculate the level of the shadow economy in a group of selected countries, divided into three categories. The first category includes countries with a

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Mong, Mara, and Siphat Lim. "Analyzing the impact of the shadow economy on economic growth in Cambodia." Edelweiss Applied Science and Technology 9, no. 1 (2024): 125–36. https://doi.org/10.55214/25768484.v9i1.3862.

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A model of equations known as the VAR model has been employed to investigate the relationships among four endogenous variables: the growth rate of GDP, the shadow economy, the inflation rate, and final consumption expenditure. The initial response of GDP to shocks from the shadow economy is negative for the first three quarters, with the effect gradually decreasing from the fifth to the tenth quarter. In the first and second quarters, there is no observable impact on GDP due to shocks from the inflation rate; however, this shock becomes harmful between the third and fifth quarters before stabi

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Maulida, Rahma Hanii, and Darwanto Darwanto. "Analysis of Institutional Quality Influence on Shadow Economy Development." JEJAK 11, no. 1 (2018): 49–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i1.11322.

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GDP is the main indicator of economy which reflects economic activities in a country. In fact, shadow economy is exist in every country, it is some of the activities which are not included in the national account. This condition can lead to a biased policies. So that, it is important to take into account the shadow economy when formulating policies. There are no such of data for shadow economy activities. The purpose of this research is to estimate shadow economy in seven developing countries of ASEAN. The estimation method used is the MIMIC approach in the period of 2007-2016. Besides, this r

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Anastasiia, S. Poltorak. "The shadow economy as an internal threat to Ukraine's financial security." Economic journal Odessa polytechnic university 3, no. 9 (2019): 104–11. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3805257.

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The article is devoted to monitoring the state of the shadow economy of the state as a key threat to the financial security of the state. The state of the shadow economy of Ukraine, calculated according to the methodology of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine and IMF experts, is analyzed. It is mathematically proved that there is a connection between the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine and the state of its financial security, and the level of GDP per capita as an indicator that objectively characterizes the country's development rate and is used in most method

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Barbu, Teodora Cristina, Iustina Alina Boitan, and Sorin Iulian Cioaca. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Shadow Banking – Evidence from EU Countries." Review of Economic and Business Studies 9, no. 2 (2016): 111–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rebs-2016-0037.

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AbstractShadow banking is a topical, debated issue on the agenda of national and European macro-prudential regulatory and supervisory authorities. It is generally accepted that shadow banks and the traditional banking system have some core functions in common, such as credit and maturity transformation, and the exposure to similar risks. However, the tight banking regulations and the decreasing trend recorded by interest rates in the post-crisis period create prospects for shadow banking sector growth. Against this background, the present paper aims at investigating the particular impact that

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Nchor, Dennis, and Tomáš Konderla. "The Shadow Economy of Czech Republic and Tax Evasion: The Currency Demand Approach." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 64, no. 6 (2016): 2081–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664062081.

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This study investigates the shadow economy of Czech Republic and the associated losses in tax revenue. The presence of a shadow economy may not necessarily be bad for the economies in which they prevail but they could cause huge losses to government revenue and could also constitute serious violation of labour regulations. The study uses the Currency Demand Approach. It measures the size of the shadow economy in two stages: a) the econometric estimation of an aggregate money demand equation b) the calculation of the value of the shadow economy through the quantity theory of money. The key vari

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11

Buszko, Andrzej. "Szara strefa a redystrybucja PKB - implikacje, uwarunkowania." Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego. Studia i Prace, no. 2 (November 27, 2016): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.33119/kkessip.2016.2.5.

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The main objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and the level of redistribution of GDP. Pearson correlation coeffcient was used for small samples The hypothesis that the level of public expenditure is strongly stochastically positively correlated with the level of the shadow economy has been confidently verified. The study included Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria between 1995-20014. The article describes the categories of the shadow economy and the conditions of its creation in the context of the macroeconomic

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Bati, B. E. "Effect of the Shadow Economy on Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis." Economy of regions 21, no. 2 (2025): 582–92. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-2-22.

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The shadow economy in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has become a persistent challenge that undermines government tax revenues. This study investigates the shadow economy’s adverse effect on tax revenue in SSA, addressing a critical gap in the region’s fiscal research. The analysis covers 15 SSA countries over the period of 15 years, using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond GMM estimation method. Model validity was confirmed through Arellano-Bond autocorrelation tests and a significant Wald chi-squared statistic, ensuring robust results. Descriptive analysis reveals that SSA countries exhib

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13

Mróz, Bogdan. "Shadow economy in a turbulent environment: evidence from Poland." Journal of Money Laundering Control 21, no. 3 (2018): 328–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jmlc-08-2017-0034.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an empirical insight into the functioning of the informal sector in Poland and highlight the reasons for involvement of economic agents in the new forms of the shadow economy. Design/methodology/approach The paper is focused on the analysis of different manifestations of unregistered economic activities in Poland. The author draws upon the latest available research findings on the subject including shadow economy estimates. Finally, the case study analysis of the tobacco industry in Poland has been used to exemplify and highlight the driving forc

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Dzhabiev, R. "Shadow Economy and Corruption in Azerbaijan." World Economy and International Relations, no. 7 (2012): 84–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2012-7-84-91.

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The government legislation of Azerbaijan is in many respects behind the new realities of economic life. Contradictions between the quickly changing market economy conditions and the existing legislative base allow bribe-takers for using the appearing gaps in the legal sphere. The deduction of shadow economy at least to the 10% of GDP level must be put as a strategic task, along with the increase in GDP, poverty combating, inflation reduction, etc.

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15

Ivașcu, Codruț-Florin, and Sorina Emanuela Ștefoni. "Modelling the Non-Linear Dependencies between Government Expenditures and Shadow Economy Using Data-Driven Approaches." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 70, no. 1 (2023): 97–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2023-0001.

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This article aims to model the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and the most important government expenditures respectively social protection, health, and education, using nonlinear approaches. We applied four different Machine Learning models, namely Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks, Random Forest, and XGBoost on a cross-sectional dataset of 28 EU states between 1995 and 2020. Our goal is to calibrate an algorithm that can explain the variance of shadow economy size better than a linear model. Moreover, the most performant model has been used to predict the shadow

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Arzhenovskiy, Sergey. "Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect." Applied Econometrics 69 (2023): 121–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-121-140.

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The share of the shadow economy in the GDP of Russia and by region — in the GRP of the regions, was estimated in the study, based on quarterly data. The methodology included two approaches — structural modeling and using of the cash demand model. Estimation of consumer price index elasticity factors by the share of shadow economy in GDP/GRP was carried out. Comparison of empirical results of the study with obtained other authors and other methods, both by country and by region, showed their comparability.

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Czapkiewicz, Anna, and Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup. "The Measurement of the Gross Domestic Product affected by the shadow economy." Statistics in Transition new series 25, no. 3 (2024): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2024-028.

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The article presents a method for balancing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) when the measurements of its components are distorted by the existence of the shadow economy. Our proposal to measure GDP is based on a multiple ultrastructural model (MUM), where the explanatory variables are subject to error. We show that the expected value of GDP can be divided into two parts: the first part concerns data related to registered activities and the second part concerns unobserved data which may be partly related to the shadow economy. The empirical analysis is based on the annual data for individual voivo

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18

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, and Sven Fischer. "Lifting of International Sanctions and the Shadow Economy in Iran—A View from Outer Space." Remote Sensing 13, no. 22 (2021): 4620. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13224620.

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With the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2016, Iran experienced a short period without international sanctions which resulted in an annual increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) in the following two years. However, it was not just the formal economy that was affected by the sanctions. Previous studies have shown that sanctions can negatively affect the shadow (or informal) economy and may even have a larger impact on the informal economy than on the formal economy. Nighttime lights (NTL) data allow us to study shadow economy activities that are not rep

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Ellena Ratri Oktora, Fitriana Khusna Karima, and Eva Dwi Kurniawan. "Kajian Kegiatan Shadow Economy di Indonesia Dalam Novel Pulang Karya Tere Liye." Jurnal Rimba : Riset Ilmu manajemen Bisnis dan Akuntansi 2, no. 1 (2023): 124–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.61132/rimba.v2i1.548.

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The aim of this research is to explore the shadow economy in the Novel Pulang written which Tere Liye. The novel was analyzed using content analysis to find evidence and criticism of the shadow economy in the nation's economy, especially Indonesia. This research found that shadow economy is the main theme of this novel. Tere Liye very clearly defines the shadow economy and conveys to the reader what the shadow economy is all about become part of the world community, especially Indonesia. Not only that, GDP is an important indicator for measuring a country's economic performance. The research r

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20

Schneider, Friedrich, Konrad Raczkowski, and Bogdan Mróz. "Shadow economy and tax evasion in the EU." Journal of Money Laundering Control 18, no. 1 (2015): 34–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jmlc-09-2014-0027.

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Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to explore size of the shadow economy of 31 European Countries in 2014 and size of the shadow economy of 28 European Union countries over 2003-2014 (in per cent of official GDP). An additional objective is to identify tax evasion, as the problem of all the EU countries, answering the questions how better combat the tax fraud. Design/methodology/approach – Estimates of the shadow economy for all 28 European Union countries and other three countries from Europe, i.e. Norway, Switzerland and Turkey – MIMIC method was applied. Findings – The average size

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Buszko, Andrzej. "Factors Fostering Shadow Economy Performance in Poland and Lithuania during 2000-2019." Engineering Economics 33, no. 1 (2022): 4–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.33.1.24944.

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This study relies on a calculable and essential analysis of a statistically oriented regression model. Ninety-five variables taken into consideration in this research were grouped into four categories. The first category covers the general macroeconomic situation, the second is devoted to crime, the third is formed by characteristics of income and living conditions, and the fourth one applies to the taxation system. The Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model was employed to measure the level of shadow economy in Poland and in Lithuania during 2000-2019. The MIMIC model depends on St

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Ivanov, Yu. "Problems of Measuring and Analyzing GDP in the CIS Countries." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 4 (April 20, 2005): 99–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2005-4-99-112.

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The article discusses the problems of GDP measurement in the CIS countries: measuring shadow and informal economy; treatment of inflation; impact of changes in the organization of economy on the size and rates of GDP growth. The issue of possible degree of accuracy of calculation of GDP is discussed. Some directions of the analysis of GDP data are presented as well as the links between GDP and other macroeconomic indicators.

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Wyżnikiewicz, Bohdan. "Do we measure shadow economy correctly?" Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 64, no. 3 (2019): 63–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.8524.

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This article aims at presenting the approach of national statistical institutes to the issue of the size of the shadow economy estimated in national accounts as a GDP component in the light of rapid changes in the global economy. The creation of value added and its market pricing are considered as criteria for inclusion activities to the shadow economy. Methodological problems like production boundaries, legal and illegal shadow economy activities were raised. Official statistics on the shadow economy were confronted with independent estimates. It is argued that the official estimates of the s

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Papadimitriou, Pyrros, Thomas Poufinas, George Galanos, and Charalampos Agiropoulos. "Investigating if the Financial Markets Performance Affects the Shadow Economy: Additional Evidence From EU Countries." International Journal of Financial Research 12, no. 5 (2021): 130. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v12n5p130.

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The shadow economy also known as the informal or unobserved or underground economy, is a phenomenon that affects not only emerging markets and developing countries but also advanced economies. In general, this undeclared economic activity is hard to measure given its hidden nature in addition to its relation with unlawful activities. Nevertheless, apart from the legal aspects that may appear, shadow economy has negative implications in terms of tax revenue and social security contributions for the nations. To this end, an extensive literature has explored the measurement issues as well as the

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Dell’Anno, Roberto, and Friedrich Schneider. "The Shadow Economy of Italy and other OECD Countries: What Do We Know?" Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice 21, no. 2 (2003): 97–120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1332/251569203x15668905422009.

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Abstract Various methods to estimate the size of the shadow economy are discussed and the results of the shadow economy of 21 OECD countries are presented. Then the specific case of Italy is investigated and the aim of this section is to produce an estimate of the Italian shadow economy with the MIMIC (Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes) method. The procedure to obtain the underground economy as a share of official GDP is presented. The paper ends with some general conclusions about the reliability of the model approach and the efficacy of economic policies to reduce the shadow economy.

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Pavlo, Pirnykoza. "ANALYSIS OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY AND ITS FISCAL EFFECTS IN UKRAINE." EUREKA: Social and Humanities, no. 2 (March 30, 2018): 30–38. https://doi.org/10.21303/2504-5571.2018.00577.

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This article analyses the share of shadow economy in Ukraine and its effects on the domestic fiscal sphere. It was made an attempt to calculate the approximate tax losses, which was resulted by the informal sector of economy. Also, we tried to search the influence of the shadow economy on the consolidate budget revenue, expenditures and deficit. The results of this paper are: 1) the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine during last 5–10 years is between 34–43 % of GDP; 2) the annual average tax losses are about 15.4 % of official GDP, of which 10.4 % is the losses of central and l

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Abubakar, Lastuti, C. Sukmadilaga, and Tri Handayani. "IMPACT OF SHADOW BANKING ACTIVITIES AS NON BANK INTERMEDIATION TOWARD REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS IN FUNCTION CONTROL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR IN INDONESIA." Diponegoro Law Review 1, no. 1 (2016): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/dilrev.1.1.2016.47-60.

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Based on the Global Shadow Banking Monitory Report 2015 issued by the Financial Stability Board, global shadow banking activities manage 80% of global GDP and 90% of the global financial system assets. Hence, this study aimed to examine the regulation and supervision of shadow banking activities in Indonesia. The method used is normative juridical with descriptive analytical research specifications. Based on the research results as follows : regulation of shadow banking in Indonesia's financial services sector covers all financial institutions outside the banking sector or Non-Bank Financial I

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Czapkiewicz, Anna, and Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup. "Estimating the size of the shadow economy in Poland." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 66, no. 4 (2021): 7–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.8323.

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The shadow economy, as an interdisciplinary phenomenon, generates many controversies and difficulties for researchers. Economic entities operating within the non-observed (hidden) economy strive to escape official records, therefore a direct estimation of the extent of the phenomenon remains unobtainable. The aim of this article is to present the results of the estimation of the size of the shadow economy in Poland on the basis of the differences between GDP calculated according to the ‘production’ and the ‘expenditure’ approaches. The authors propose an original technique based on the idea of

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Sivramkrishna, Sashi, Soyra Gune, Kasturi Kandalam, and Advait Moharir. "Shadow Banking in India: Nature, Trends, Concerns and Policy Interventions." Review of Economic and Business Studies 12, no. 2 (2019): 29–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rebs-2019-0090.

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AbstractWhile the origin of shadow banks may be traced to the 1970s, developing countries have witnessed a massive growth of shadow banks in more recent decades. India too has seen a similar growth in shadow banks; however, the recent 2018 collapse of IL&FS Group, a major shadow bank, disrupted the credit cycle, stalled investment and even affected overall GDP growth. With experts warning that shadow banks are susceptible to systemic risks and crisis, it becomes imperative to understand the shadow banking system better. In this paper, we use exploratory data analysis – both quantitative an

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RAMAZANOV, Al'bert V. "On the essence and regulation of shadow banking." Finance and Credit 28, no. 6 (2022): 1379–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/fc.28.6.1379.

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Subject. This article deals with the shadow banking issues. Objectives. The article aims to define the essence of shadow banking and propose measures to reduce the share of shadow banking in the Russian economy. Methods. For the study, I used analysis and synthesis, economic and mathematical, and formal and logical methods. Results. Based on the transaction cost theory and the Fisher equation, the article confirms the relationship of the shadow economy and the GDP of the Russian Federation. It clarifies the concept of shadow banking and identifies factors affecting the shadow economy expansion

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Lukman, Raif Maulana, and Fitri Kartiasih. "Estimating the shadow economy at the provincial level in Indonesia: A MIMIC model approach." Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia 14, no. 1 (2025): 54–68. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v14i1.561.

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The shadow economy encompasses economic activities that are not recorded in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), resulting in reporting bias and diminished state revenue. This study estimates the size of the shadow economy across 34 Indonesian provinces from 2015 to 2021 using the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) method. The results indicate that the estimated average shadow economy ranges from 4.73% to 42.64% of the provincial GRDP. Key influencing factors include tax burden, government regulations, regional autonomy, self-employed labor, and economic openness. These findings supp

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Dahlan, Muhammad. "SHADOW ECONOMY, AEOI, DAN KEPATUHAN PAJAK." Scientax 2, no. 1 (2020): 39–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.52869/st.v2i1.51.

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This research develops a broad conceptual framework of shadow economy transactions in Indonesia based on the previous research and finds the correlation with the current tax regulation on automatic exchange of information and tax compliance. Shadow economy is the activity of individuals, households, and/or firms that evade, avoid, or not report its transaction to the government. Based on the previous research, by using monetary approach, the average size of shadow economy in Indonesia equals to 8 – 19% of GDP. Based on this data, the government uses automatic exchange of information (AEOI) to

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Adegboyega, Soliu Bidemi, Jimoh Sina Ogede, Ibrahim Abidemi Odusanya, Felix Odunayo Ajayi, and Olayinka E. Atoyebi. "DISAGGREGATED TRADE OPENNESS ON SHADOW ECONOMY IN NIGERIA: DOES INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY MATTER?" Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga 32, no. 2 (2022): 187–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jeba.v32i22022.187-203.

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Introduction: It is likely that enterprises and entrepreneurs will be encouraged to engage in the formal sector as economies integrate more fully into the global economy. Thus, we begin our investigation by looking at the relationship between Nigeria's shadow economy and disaggregated trade openness. Based on Nigeria's inadequate institutional quality, our second purpose is to conduct further research on the role institutional quality plays in moderating the relationship between its shadow economy and disaggregated trade openness between 1991 and 2018. Methods: The fully modified ordinary leas

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Bukhtiarova, Alina, Andrii Semenog, and Alona Mykhalova. "Shadow Economy: Causes and Ways to De-shadow Economic Processes." Modern Economics 23, no. 1 (2020): 31–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v23(2020)-05.

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Introduction. The spread of the shadow economy is a significant obstacle to the sustainable development of Ukraine’s economy and its entry into the world community. It negatively affects all economic processes. In Ukraine, the scale of the shadow economy has reached a critical level, so it is vital to find ways to minimize the shadow economy as essential prerequisites for increasing economic security of the state. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to discover the essence of the concept of the shadow economy, to find out the leading causes of the shadow economy and identify ways to de-shad

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Buszko, Andrzej. "DOES THE SHADOW ECONOMY AFFECT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT? CASE STUDY OF POLAND AND POLISH REGIONS." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW, Polityki Europejskie, Finanse i Marketing, no. 26(75) (December 30, 2021): 22–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/pefim.2021.26.75.10.

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The main goal of the research was to identify the relationship between the level of shadow economy and Foreign Direct Investment. The research was carried in Poland and Polish regions during 1990-2020. MIMIC approach was employed to calculate the level of shadow economy as a % of Polish and regional GDP. Pearson correlation index and Kolmogrov-Smirnov test were applied as well. The study proved there is a sound negative correlation (-0,636) between the shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Poland, but regional associations between those two variables demonstrated different results. U

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Greenwood, Robin, and David Scharfstein. "The Growth of Finance." Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no. 2 (2013): 3–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.2.3.

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The US financial services industry grew from 4.9 percent of GDP in 1980 to 7.9 percent of GDP in 2007. A sizeable portion of the growth can be explained by rising asset management fees, which in turn were driven by increases in the valuation of tradable assets, particularly equity. Another important factor was growth in fees associated with an expansion in household credit, particularly fees associated with residential mortgages. This expansion was fueled by the development of nonbank credit intermediation (or “shadow banking”). We offer a preliminary assessment of whether the growth of active

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Inna, V. Tiutiunyk, O. Zolkover Andrii, V. Lyulyov Oleksii, and V. Lyeonov Serhii. "Current state and trends of the shadow sector of the economy." Economics: time realities 3, no. 49 (2020): 47–54. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4437063.

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Current trends in economic development of most countries highlight the need to improve existing tools for their economic growth and sustainable development. An important aspect in this direction is the implementation of the policy of de-shadowing of the economy. The article analyzes the current world trends in the functioning of the shadow economy, identifies the most common schemes of shadow capital withdrawal and approaches to their classification. The systematization of the existing methodical approaches to the assessment of the level of shadowing of the economy is carried out, their advant

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Ginevicius, Romualdas, Tomas Kliestik, Andrius Stasiukynas, and Karel Suhajda. "The Impact of National Economic Development on the Shadow Economy." Journal of Competitiveness 12, no. 4 (2020): 39–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.04.03.

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A country’s competitiveness depends primarily on its economic development which in turn is affected by a number of factors. Some of these, such as investment, favorable business conditions, legal environment, etc., promote economic development, while others, such as low labor productivity, insufficient staff qualification that fails to meet the requirements of the labor market, etc., slow down the pace of economic development. The latter category describes the phenomenon of the shadow economy (SE). Research into shadow economies is dominated by the analysis of the local impact factors. Neverth

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Ginevicius, Romualdas, Tomas Kliestik, Andrius Stasiukynas, and Karel Suhajda. "The Impact of National Economic Development on the Shadow Economy." Journal of Competitiveness 12, no. 4 (2020): 39–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.04.03.

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A country’s competitiveness depends primarily on its economic development which in turn is affected by a number of factors. Some of these, such as investment, favorable business conditions, legal environment, etc., promote economic development, while others, such as low labor productivity, insufficient staff qualification that fails to meet the requirements of the labor market, etc., slow down the pace of economic development. The latter category describes the phenomenon of the shadow economy (SE). Research into shadow economies is dominated by the analysis of the local impact factors. Neverth

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Liang, Yao, Xu Jin, and Aslan Javid Azimzadeh. "INTERCONNECTIONS AND INTERDEPENDENCIES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SHADOW BANKING SECTOR IN DEVELOPING AND TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 30, no. 5 (2024): 1392–411. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20795.

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The research objective is defined as the identification and confirmation of empirical relationships between shadow banking activities and economic development in developing and transitional economies to establish a theoretical basis for minimizing potential risks associated with shadow banking. The methodological design is based on a quantitative approach, implemented through correlation-regression analysis and ARIMA forecasting methods. The research findings confirm Hypothesis 1: China’s shadow banking is closely interconnected with the country’s economic development. However, Hypothesis 2 (t

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Khan, Yousaf Ali. "Investigating and estimating the size of Shadow Economy by using monetary approach: Case study of Malaysia." Frontiers in Management and Business 3, no. 2 (2022): 219–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.25082/fmb.2022.02.003.

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The purpose of this study is to explore and estimate the size of Shadow Economy of Malaysia. This study used annual Time series data from 1980 to 2018, introduced Lending Interest Rate as additional variable for the first time to estimate the Shadow or dim Economy, and focused on the Currency Demand Approach (CDA) which is the best way of estimation the size of S.E. The results of ARDL, Unit Root Test (ADF) and Bound Test have also generated for the purpose. And this study investigated positive relationship between Currency Circulation to Money Supply Ratio and GDP, Inflation, Interest rate, a

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Davydenko, Nadiia, Ivan Olifer, Natalia Wasilewska, and Mirosław Wasilewski. "THE SHADOW ECONOMY AND ITS IMPACT ON A COUNTRY’S FINANCIAL POTENTIAL." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW, Polityki Europejskie, Finanse i Marketing, no. 24(73) (December 14, 2020): 31–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/pefim.2020.24.73.25.

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The aim of the article is to reveal the essence of the shadow economy and its impact on the financial potential of a country. We have discovered that the shadow economy is an objective phenomenon which is inherent in the economic systems of all countries, and that its level is determined by the level of development of the economic system, the difficulty of identifying all possible variants of the shading processes, and the moral and cultural characteristics of the country. It has been established that the shadow economy plays a major role in developing countries and that the level of the shado

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Aristidis, Bitzenis, and Makedos Ioannis. "The Absorption of a Shadow Economy in the Greek GDP." Procedia Economics and Finance 9 (2014): 32–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00006-9.

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Murtin, Fabrice, Romina Boarini, Juan Carlos Cordoba, and Marla Ripoll. "Beyond GDP: Is there a law of one shadow price?" European Economic Review 100 (November 2017): 390–411. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.09.001.

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Navickas, Mykolas, Vytautas Juščius, and Valentinas Navickas. "Determinants of Shadow Economy in Eastern European Countries." Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 66, no. 1 (2019): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/saeb-2019-0002.

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Abstract In this article the relationship between shadow economy and its’ determinants has been examined. Ten Eastern countries from European Union were chosen due to specific particularities, which may cause higher shadow economy levels in the investigated countries compared with the EU average. Time span of 2003-2016 was selected, as 2017 data has yet to be released at the time of the analysis. Article consists of examination of the current situation and shadow economy trends in Eastern European countries; overview of shadow economy scientific literature followed by hypothesis, which are exa

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Miroshnychenko, Inga, Dmytro Vasylenko, and Ihor Nikolaiev. "The Influence of the Shadow Economy of Ukraine on Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Security of the State." Central Ukrainian Scientific Bulletin. Economic Sciences, no. 10(43) (2023): 51–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.32515/2663-1636.2023.10(43).51-61.

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The article examines the influence of the domestic shadow economy on the main macroeconomic indicators of the state's development, and offers proposals for reducing the volume and level of the shadow economy of Ukraine. It systematizes scientific approaches to the essence and factors of economic shadowing and economic security. The study examines the experience of international organizations aimed at combating money laundering. It is revealed that the shadow economy of the country, in the conditions of globalization, is one of the significant exogenous factors influencing the economic security

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Dada, James Temitope, and Folorunsho M. Ajide. "The moderating role of institutional quality in shadow economy–pollution nexus in Nigeria." Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 32, no. 3 (2021): 506–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/meq-10-2020-0238.

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PurposeThis study examines the moderating role institutional quality plays in shadow economy–environmental pollution nexus in Nigeria between 1984 and 2018. Further, the study also determines the threshold level of institutional quality that lessens shadow economy and abates environmental pollution.Design/methodology/approachShadow economy is measured as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) using the currency demand approach while environmental pollution is proxy by carbon dioxide (CO2) per capita. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) is used as the estimation technique.FindingsResult

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Poltorak, A., M. Kazemyrchyk, and A. Polishchuk. "Priority Threats to Financial Security in the conditions of the Modern Economy Transformation." Modern Economics 24, no. 1 (2020): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v24(2020)-25.

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Abstract. Introduction. The shadow economy is one of the main threats to the financial security of the state. Strengthening Ukraine’s economy is impossible without reducing the level of shadowing. Official data show that at the beginning of 2020 more than a quarter of GDP is in the shadows, but the real level of shadowing, in our opinion, is much higher. Purpose. The aim of the article is to deepen the theoretical and methodological foundations of substantiation of priority threats to financial security in the conditions of transformation processes in the modern economy, clarification of the o

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Zhang, Huiyi, Richard Skolnik, Yu Han, and Jinpei Wu. "The Impacts of China's Shadow Banking Credit Creation on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 9, no. 4 (2020): 33–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v9i4.899.

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This paper researches the impact that shadow banking in China has upon credit creation and the potential effectiveness of monetary policy. Using a credit creation model, we derive the effect that shadow banking has upon the money multiplier and the money supply. The model shows that shadow banking can change the money multiplier, potentially increasing it during an expansion and decreasing it during a contraction. Introducing shadow banking in a CC-LM model results in a shift of the CC and LM curves resulting in a higher equilibrium output. A vector autoregressive model is used to empirically

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Mazur, Hennadii, Oleksandr Zinevych, Olga Guseva, Anatoliy Babichev, and Serhiy Valyvsky. "The Impact of the Shadow Economy on the Stability of the Financial System of the State." Salud, Ciencia y Tecnología - Serie de Conferencias 4 (January 31, 2025): 1423. https://doi.org/10.56294/sctconf20251423.

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The problems of shadow economy and financial stability have always been a concern for both in developed and developing countries. It is important for policymakers trying to create economic resilience and stability to understand how the shadow sector affects finances. This aim of this research is to examine the impact of shadow economy on macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, inflation and interest rate. The study also analysed the impact of the shadow economy on financial stability in different countries. The research employs econometric analysis, including panel data regression, structura

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