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Journal articles on the topic 'Small Econometric models'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 December 2022

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Bidabad, Bijan. "A Small Macro-Econometric Model." American Finance & Banking Review 4, no. 1 (2019): 22–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v4i1.287.

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Different sizes of macro-econometric models are used for different policy purposes. In this paper, we introduce a small macro-econometric model that includes macro-aggregates variables that can be solved dynamically and be used as a sample model to be estimated for other countries.

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TOSHALIEVA, S. T. "АНАЛИЗ ОБЪЕМА ПРОИЗВОДСТВА МАЛОГО БИЗНЕСА С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ ДИНАМИЧЕСКИХ ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКИХ МОДЕЛЕЙ". Экономика и предпринимательство, № 1(150) (27 травня 2023): 751–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.34925/eip.2023.150.1.148.

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This article is aimed at analyzing the situation with small business production in the Surkhandarya region on the basis of econometric modeling, in which the relationship between the GRP of the region and the volume of small business production was analyzed on the basis of distributed lag values of dynamic econometric models. Using the Kalman model to estimate the distributed value of the L lag, the correlation between causal and factor indicators is estimated, suggestions and recommendations are developed based on quantitative and qualitative studies. Данная статья направлена на анализ ситуац

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Kaboudan, Mahmoud A. "Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach." International Journal of Middle East Studies 20, no. 1 (1988): 45–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020743800057500.

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This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy;

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S.T.Toshaliyeva. "The use of dynamic econometric models in estimating the production volume of small business." Multidisciplinary Journal of Science and Technology 4, no. 3 (2024): 226–32. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10827178.

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<em>This article aims to analyze the state of events and processes that may occur in the future in the production volume of small businesses in Surkhandarya region based on econometric modeling, in which the GNP and the relationship between the volume of small business production are evaluated scientifically based on quantity and quality, proposals and recommendations are developed.</em>

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Vinod, H. D., and L. R. Shenton. "Exact Moments for Autor1egressive and Random walk Models for a Zero or Stationary Initial Value." Econometric Theory 12, no. 3 (1996): 481–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600006824.

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For a first-order autoregressive AR(1) model with zero initial value, xi = axi−1,_, + ei, we provide the bias, mean squared error, skewness, and kurtosis of the maximum likelihood estimator â. Brownian motion approximations by Phillips (1977, Econometrica 45, 463–485; 1978, Biometrika 65, 91–98; 1987, Econometrica 55, 277–301), Phillips and Perron (1988, Biometrika 75, 335–346), and Perron (1991, Econometric Theory 7, 236–252; 1991, Econometrica 59, 211–236), among others, yield an elegant unified theory but do not yield convenient formulas for calibration of skewness and kurtosis. In addition

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Nymoen, Ragnar. "On the Low Degree of Entropy Implied by the Solutions of Modern Macroeconomic Models." Entropy 24, no. 12 (2022): 1728. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e24121728.

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The non-causal (“forward-looking”) solution used routinely in academic macroeconomics may represent a violation of a law of entropy, namely that the direction of time is one way (from the past and towards the present), and that the variance of economic processes increases with time. In order to re-establish a degree of compatibility with the law of entropy, so called hybrid forms are required add-ins to DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. However, the solution that uses hybrid forms is a particular special case of a causal solutions of autoregressive distributed lags, VARs an

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Zadadaev, Sergey A., and Pavel B. Lukyanov. "SOFT COMPUTING AND SMALL DATA IN AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT GOALS." SOFT MEASUREMENTS AND COMPUTING 11, no. 60 (2022): 65–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/2618-9976.2022.11.006.

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The aim of the work was to model the mechanism of the influence of an exogenous resource variable on the predicted indicator of the national development goal, in which one model was selected from an infinite family of hypothetical resource allocation models within a year, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in soft computing. The study of problems based on small sample data in the age of big data is substantiated by the fact that there are a number of longitudinal tasks of longterm research in which, after 5–6 years of testing any methods, it is necessary to obtain data on their effectiveness

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Roljic, Lazo. "An expert system for national economy model simulations." Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research 12, no. 2 (2002): 247–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/yjor0202247r.

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There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomi

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VALIYEV, Vilayat, Arzu SULEYMANOV, and Natavan NAMAZOVA. "A Small Macro Econometrıc Model of Azerbaıjan Economy." Journal of Ecohumanism 3, no. 7 (2024): 1051–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.62754/joe.v3i7.4268.

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In the presented article, the construction of the Macroeconometric model for short- and medium-term forecasting of indicators of socio-economic development in the economy of Azerbaijan has been carried out. The model consists of 64 variables (41 endogenous, 23 exogenous) and 41 equations, built in four blocks (national income account, deflators, balance of payments and public finance). The database of the model is formed in four parts, covering the years 1995-2017 on an annual basis, including national income account, deflators, balance of payments and public finance. The development of the da

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Adjiba, Sourou T. Christian, Ygué Patrice Adégbola, Rosaine Nérice Yegbemey, and Jacob A. Yabi. "Review And Synthesis of Sustainable Land Management on Small Family Farms in Developing Countries." Journal of Agricultural Studies 11, no. 3 (2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/jas.v11i3.21067.

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Despite efforts to restore land and fight food insecurity, sustainable land management (SLM) technologies are not yet widely adopted in developing countries. This article reviews and synthesizes studies that have been conducted in developing countries over the last few decades. A total of 145 documents were used in this synthesis. A key finding of this paper is the identification of a theoretical gap that provides information for future studies on SLM practices.Another one is that, studies focusing on adoption in this synthesis have not considered awareness of technology as a key part of the a

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Аскарова, Н. И. "Assessment of innovative development of small business and private entrepreneurship based on econometric models." Экономика и предпринимательство, no. 9(146) (January 22, 2023): 814–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.34925/eip.2022.146.9.160.

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В статье дана оценка инновационного развития малого бизнеса и частного предпринимательства Кашкадарьинской области Республики Узбекистан на основе эконометрических моделей и изложены факторы экономического развития. Известно, что развитие малого бизнеса и частного предпринимательства существенно влияет на развитие и стабильность экономики страны. В работе выполнено прогнозирование на основе многофакторных эмпирических моделей при анализе инновационного развития малого бизнеса и частного предпринимательства в регионе и получены аналитические результаты. Подводя итог, можно сказать, что анализ п

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Suryan, Viktor. "ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS FOR AIR TRAFFIC PASSENGER OF INDONESIA." Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum 3, no. 1 (2017): 303. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/jcef.26594.

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One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the

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Finnegan, Marie, and Lucía Morales. "A methodological framework for exploring SME finance with SAFE data." PLOS ONE 19, no. 8 (2024): e0307361. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0307361.

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Research on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) access to bank finance is vital for the euro area economy. SMEs heavily represent the European business sector, employing around 100 million people and accounting for more than half of the Gross Domestic Product. Research studies in the field often rely on the ECB/EC Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Many studies employ probit or logit models with categorical dependent variables derived from SAFE. The research findings show that hardly any study employs the simpler linear probability model (LPM), with a dominant lack of

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Zvyagin, Leonid S. "MATHEMATICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS FOR CONSTRUCTING BAYESIAN NETWORKS." SOFT MEASUREMENTS AND COMPUTING 9/2, no. 70 (2023): 29–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/2618-9976.2023.09-2.004.

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Currently, there is an active and widespread use of the Bayesian approach in activities with numerical information, both in theoretical and experimental econometric studies. The Bayesian approach has a significant advantage over classical methods in terms of the accuracy of statistical inference in a situation with small amounts of sample data, which is especially common in econometric studies. The main difference between the Bayesian approach and classical methods in econometrics lies in the way the actual parameters of the models are interpreted. From the standpoint of classical methods, mod

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Golubkin, A. V., and O. M. Malyutina. "Industrial production as a factor in the dynamics of trade in mechanical engineering products between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2022–2024." Economics and Management 31, no. 6 (2025): 700–708. https://doi.org/10.35854/1998-1627-2025-6-700-708.

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Aim. The work aimed to assess the impact of industrial production in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) on the dynamics of trade in mechanical engineering products between these countries and the Russian Federation (RF) in the context of the latest geopolitical conditions.Objectives. The work seeks to analyze statistical data on the dynamics of trade relations between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the field of mechanical engineering at the current stage; to construct econometric models for regression analysis of the impact of industrial production on

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Doszyń, Mariusz. "Econometric Models of Real Estate Prices with Prior Information. Mixed Estimation." Real Estate Management and Valuation 30, no. 3 (2022): 61–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/remav-2022-0021.

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Abstract The purpose of this paper is to estimate econometric models with sample and prior information. Prices of land property for residential development in Szczecin are modeled (the price level was determined for 2018). Modeling property prices only based on sample data generates numerous problems. Transaction databases from local real estate markets often contain a small number of observations. Properties are frequently similar, which results in low variability of property characteristics, and thus – low efficiency of parameter estimators. In such a situation, the impact of some features c

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Surmann, Markus, Wolfgang Brunauer, and Sven Bienert. "How does energy efficiency influence the Market Value of office buildings in Germany and does this effect increase over time?" Journal of European Real Estate Research 8, no. 3 (2015): 243–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-04-2015-0018.

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Purpose – The paper aims to estimate the effect of energy efficiency on the Market Value of office buildings and consider whether this effect increases over time. Design/methodology/approach – The authors analyze a dataset of office building valuations from 2009 to 2011, provided by the German Investment Property Database. The authors use hedonic regression models to determine the effect of energy efficiency and energy consumption on Market Values. Using generalized additive models (GAM) for modeling nonlinear covariate effects, the authors control for further building characteristics and loca

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Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, and Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva. "Econometric Estimation of Strategic Development Factors of Russian Border Regions." Economy of Region 17, no. 2 (2021): 431–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-2-6.

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Cross-border development is significantly influenced by global events, such as 1990s transformations, when different inland areas across the world became borderlands. Further, due to 2014 geopolitical changes, the Russian Federation had to establish a new institutional framework regulating the border regional development. The research aims to assess the impact of strategic factors on socio-economic development of these regions. For that purpose, we analysed 47 of 50 Russian border entities divided into two groups of old and new (established after the collapse of the USSR in 1991) border region

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19

Sheng, Shuyang. "A Structural Econometric Analysis of Network Formation Games Through Subnetworks." Econometrica 88, no. 5 (2020): 1829–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ecta12558.

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The objective of this paper is to identify and estimate network formation models using observed data on network structure. We characterize network formation as a simultaneous‐move game, where the utility from forming a link depends on the structure of the network, thereby generating strategic interactions between links. With the prevalence of multiple equilibria, the parameters are not necessarily point identified. We leave the equilibrium selection unrestricted and propose a partial identification approach. We derive bounds on the probability of observing a subnetwork, where a subnetwork is t

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Zhukov, R. A., S. V. Prokopchina, M. A. Plinskaya, and M. A. Zhelunitsina. "Modeling of Functional Relationships of Regional Economic Systems Based on Small Samples Based on Bayesian Intelligent Measurements." Journal of Applied Economic Research 23, no. 3 (2024): 721–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.3.029.

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Regional economies, which are economic subsystems of a socio-ecological-economic system, are characterized by rapidly changing conditions affecting their functioning. Therefore, traditional approaches based on long-term trends and the construction of appropriate models are not enough for modeling and need to be over updated, including through combination with other approaches that take into account the volatility of conditions. Open sources datasets are fraught with uncertainty (different sources may have different values for the same indicator). So, some indicators are being constantly adjust

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Rudzkis, Rimantas, and Roma Valkavičienė. "ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES ON THE STOCK MARKET IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 20, no. 4 (2014): 783–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.949901.

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The article examines the dependencies of individual sectoral stock price indices of OMX Baltic security market on macroeconomic indicators, using econometric methods. Regression models are constructed using quarterly time series of 2000–2011 years while the methodology is backed with the findings of Lithuanian and foreign scientists from an extensive overview of specific literature. Regression equations, obtained in the paper, allows us to identify the key macroeconomic and global indicators that statistically significantly affect the Baltic securities market and to quantify their impact on th

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Kuethe, Todd Henry. "International Real Estate Review." International Real Estate Review 14, no. 1 (2011): 118–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.53383/100136.

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This study evaluates the ability of a range of popular aggregate house price indexes to predict house prices out-of- sample at the transaction level for a small geographic area. The analysis particularly addresses the utility of spatial econometric methods. The results suggest that spatial econometric methods, which more explicitly consider the spatial aspects of observed house prices, provide better predictive accuracy as compared to more traditional estimation techniques, such as the repeat sales index, a hybrid repeat sales-hedonic price index, and hedonic price models estimated through lea

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Morley, James, Irina B. Panovska, and Tara M. Sinclair. "TESTING STATIONARITY WITH UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 1 (2016): 160–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000437.

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In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, competing measures of the trend in macroeconomic variables such as U.S. real GDP have featured prominently in policy debates. A key question is whether large shocks to macroeconomic variables will have permanent effects—i.e., in econometric terms, do the data contain stochastic trends? Unobserved-components models provide a convenient way to estimate stochastic trends for time series data, with their existence typically motivated by stationarity tests that allow at most a deterministic trend under the null hypothesis. However, given the small sa

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Phillips, Peter C. B. "Trending Multiple Time Series: Editor's Introduction." Econometric Theory 11, no. 5 (1995): 811–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466600009890.

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One of the more obvious empirical characteristics of macroeconomic time series is their tendency to grow, or trend, over time. Dealing with this trendnonstationarity in models of multiple time series has been a major agenda of econometric research for much of the last decade and has produced an enormous literature. Equally, the goal of developing a general asymptotic theory of inference for stochastic processes has been a long-standing concern of probabilists and statisticians. Finally, understanding and modeling trend processes and cyclical activity lie at the nerve center of much of modern m

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McIntosh, James. "American COVID: An Econometric Analysis of Variants." Global Journal of Health Science 16, no. 12 (2024): 43. https://doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v16n12p43.

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BACKGROUND: Immunity to a disease arises from previous infection as well as vaccinations against it. However, it is important to know which cause has the most prophylactic benefit. Medical research so far has been unable to provide a definitive answer to this question. METHODS: This paper uses time series econometric techniques to analyze American COVID 19 data from February 2020 to the end of October 2022. Distributed lag models are employed to uncover the unobservable effects that occur when uninfected individuals come in contact with other individuals whose COVID status is unknown. The purp

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Desev, Kiril, Stanimir Kabaivanov, and Desislav Desev. "Forecasting cryptocurrency markets through the use of time series models." Business and Economic Horizons 15, no. 2 (2019): 242–53. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3970010.

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This paper analyses the efficiency of cryptocurrency markets by applying econometric models to different short-term investment horizons. A number of experiments are carried out to demonstrate that small training sets can still be used to build efficient and useful forecasts, which in turn can be transformed into straight-forward investment strategies. It also compares the application of selected models on cryptocurrency and mature stock markets. The forecasting accuracy of the models is explored using different error metrics and different horizons. The results suggest that the variation of the

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Al Mestneer, Raed, and Carlo Andrea Bollino. "Long-Term Forecasting Models of Oil Demand Emerging from the Global Petrochemical Sector." Energies 17, no. 20 (2024): 5046. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en17205046.

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In the global energy mix by 2040, the growth in demand for oil and gas will be predominantly driven by the petrochemical sector across all regions of the world. The strong performance of this industry is anticipated to necessitate additional volumes of key feedstocks. Therefore, understanding the demand dynamics within the petrochemical sector is crucial for policy makers and industry stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding economic diversification, economic planning, and environmental sustainability. However, there is a notable lack of existing literature that explicitly addresses c

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Sisay, Moges Asmare, Mohammed Yimam Ali, and Addisu Belay. "Exploring the nexus between small-scale irrigation and household food security: A comprehensive study in Raya Kobo woreda, Amhara regional state, Ethiopia." F1000Research 13 (August 15, 2024): 929. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154600.1.

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Background Food security’s multidimensional nature poses challenges in measurement and policy targeting. This comprehensive study explores the nexus between small-scale irrigation and household food security in Raya Kobo Woreda, Ethiopia, in a cross-sectional data. Methods Employing a two-stage sampling technique, the research examines 152 irrigation participants and 196 non-participants. Utilizing descriptive and econometric models, including a binary logit model and propensity score matching. Results The study reveals that 15% of participants and 12% of non-participants are food secure. Desc

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TÖRE, Selin, and KİREN Özlem GÜRLER. "The Econometric Analysis of Relationship Between Turkish Economy with Maritime Transport." International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences 12, no. 12 (2022): 387–408. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7087817.

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<strong>Abstract </strong>   With the globalization that started in 1980, international trade started to be important. The understanding of the market in international markets has brought with it the need for ‘transportation’. The maritime transportation, which enables it to carry large tonnage loads at one time, has created economies of scale, and has become the most preferred transportation system today. Therefore, a parallel relationship is expected between the economy and maritime transport. And 1973 and 1979 world oil crisis that led to structural breaks in Turkey's e

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Kordos, Jan. "Book review. Microeconometrics in Business Management, 2016. By Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski. Reviewed by J. Kordos." Statistics in Transition new series 17, no. 3 (2016): 575–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2016-032.

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This book introduces the application of micro-econometric methods for modeling various aspects of economic activity for small- to large-sized enterprises, using methods that are based on both time-series and cross-section approaches. The information obtained from using these estimated models can then be used to inform business decisions that improve the efficiency of operations and planning. Basic models used in the modeling of the business (single-equation and multiple-equation systems) are introduced whilst a wide range of economic activity including major aspects of financial management, de

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Mulska, Olha, Taras Vasyltsiv, Halyna Voznyak, Nataliia Mitsenko, Halyna Kaplenko, and Uliana Ivaniuk. "International Remittances, Human Resources Outflow & Economic Growth: Dynamic Regression Models." Financial Engineering 2 (January 25, 2024): 23–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/232032.2024.2.3.

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The article presents an econometric analysis of the impact and elasticity of human resources outflow and remittance with economic growth in Ukraine. It is proved that remittance (1) has a direct relationship with economic activity rate, (2) a cyclical and multiplicative relationship with the inflationary process, and (3) an indirect effect on capital investment. It has been established that migration favorably affects the financial well-being of households and is an effective measure for accumulating investment capital and savings. The trigger for economic growth in the vector of ‘migration –

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Partachi, Ion, and Valentin Popa. "ECONOMETRIC APPROACHES IN ANALYZING RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SMES ACTIVITY IN BUCHAREST." Economica, no. 1(119) (April 2022): 93–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.53486/econ.2022.119.093.

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Comparative analysis, in the light of statistical evolution indicators that characterize the innovative activity of SMEs in Bucharest, aims to outline the companies situation, over a period of almost 20 years. Analysis in dynamics, with the latest available indicators data, concerns not only the situation at the Bucharest municipality level at a certain time, but also the comparison with similar SMEs indicators with research and development-innovation (RDI) activity in Romania. Econometric approaches pursue the goal of developing appropriate models for this period and of producing short-term p

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DUBEY, AVINASH. "The Impact of Interest Rate Changes on Stock Market Volatility and Perception of youth on it." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 09, no. 06 (2025): 1–9. https://doi.org/10.55041/ijsrem50155.

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Abstract This study investigates the relationship between central bank interest rate adjustments and stock market volatility, with a focus on India's financial markets a small scale study also shows how it is perceived by youth. Using econometric models (GARCH, VAR) and event study analysis, we examine how monetary policy decisions influence short-term and long- term market fluctuations. Key findings indicate that unexpected rate hikes significantly increase volatility, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate. The study provides actionable insights for investors

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Többen, Johannes Reinhard, Martin Distelkamp, Britta Stöver, Saskia Reuschel, Lara Ahmann, and Christian Lutz. "Global Land Use Impacts of Bioeconomy: An Econometric Input–Output Approach." Sustainability 14, no. 4 (2022): 1976. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14041976.

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Many countries have set ambiguous targets for the development of a bioeconomy that not only ensures sufficient production of high-quality foods but also contributes to decarbonization, green jobs and reducing import dependency through biofuels and advanced biomaterials. However, feeding a growing and increasingly affluent world population and providing additional biomass for a future bioeconomy all within planetary boundaries constitute an enormous challenge for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Global economic models mapping the complex network of global supply such as multir

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Rahman, Mohamad Miftah, Dodi Nandika, and Bintang Charles Hamonangan Simangunsong. "Demand Analysis of Termite Control Service in Jakarta." Jurnal Sylva Lestari 8, no. 1 (2020): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/jsl1810-19.

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Termite is an economically important pest species in the pest control industry and considered as one of the urban pests. Although it had caused a great loss, only a few studies on termite control demand were found. This study attempted to identify determinants and build the econometric model of termite control demand in Jakarta. The findings are expected to give the pest control industry a better understanding of the pest control market. Two ad-hoc models, linear and double log models, were investigated using the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) technique. The results showed that the double

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Juhl, Ted, and Zhijie Xiao. "NONPARAMETRIC TESTS OF MOMENT CONDITION STABILITY." Econometric Theory 29, no. 1 (2012): 90–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266466612000151.

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This paper considers testing for moment condition instability for a wide variety of models that arise in econometric applications. We propose a nonparametric test based on smoothing the moment conditions over time. The resulting test takes the form of a U-statistic and has a limiting normal distribution. The proposed test statistic is not affected by changes in the distribution of the data, so long as certain simple regularity conditions hold. We examine the performance of the test through a small Monte Carlo experiment.

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Gilmutdinov, R. Z., and L. R. Tukhvatullina. "STUDY OF TAX REVENUE MODELS DEPENDING ON STATE SUPPORT." Bulletin USPTU Science education economy Series economy 4, no. 42 (2022): 50–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.17122/2541-8904-2022-4-42-50-56.

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The purpose of this work is to build an econometric model and identify the dependence of the volume of tax revenues from the small and medium-sized business sector on the amount of support funds allocated by the state. It is relevant not only to build appropriate econometric models, but also to choose the best model. The object of the study is entrepreneurship and regional policy of the Republic of Tatarstan in 2002-2017. The analysis of the studied objects and the construction of econometric models will be carried out using paired linear, quadratic, and hyperbolic regressions. Of course, the

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Wiśniewski, Jerzy Witold. "Forecasting in Small Business Management." Risks 9, no. 4 (2021): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9040069.

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This work aims to verify an authorial forecasting method from a system of interdependent equations, which is based on empirical equations of the structural form and is mainly intended for econometric micromodels. The prediction procedure will be analogous to the so-called chain prediction that is used for recursive models. The difference—compared with the prediction from a recursive model—entails the necessity of using one of the reduced-form empirical equations to begin the procedure of constructing a sequence of forecasts from successive structural-form empirical equations. The research resu

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Prišenk, Jernej, and Jernej Turk. "Assessment of Concept between Rural Development Challenges and Local Food Systems: A Combination between Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Econometric Modelling Approach." Sustainability 14, no. 6 (2022): 3477. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14063477.

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This study investigates the influence of social, economic, and environmental impacts on the promotion and marketing systems of local food products from mountain areas in Slovenia. These impacts were assessed using an econometric modelling approach. Two econometric models were developed (one for production and one for marketing). The case studies of local food products were selected from Slovenian mountain regions, most of which were from less-favored areas (LFAs). A majority of the selected food commodities were of high quality, with or without protected designations. Data collection was carri

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Thrane, Christer. "Modelling tourists’ length of stay." Tourism Economics 22, no. 6 (2016): 1352–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2015.0489.

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Modelling of tourists’ length of stay (LOS) is an expanding topic of study. A common thread in this literature is the use of sophisticated statistical/econometric methods. The present study builds on and extends an article critical of the statistical craftsmanship in prior LOS modelling studies. On the basis of an updated assessment of current practice and two small-scale case studies, two main conclusions are drawn. First, the available evidence suggests that the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model produces qualitatively similar findings to much more complicated methods, such as dur

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Yamijala, Satya Prakash, and Madhava Rao Kothapalli. "Trend Analysis of AU Small Finance Bank (AUSFB) and Equitas SFB." Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management 9, no. 3 (2024): 29520. http://dx.doi.org/10.55267/iadt.07.14924.

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This research employs GARCH models to analyze the return patterns from Equitas Small Finance Bank (SFB) and AUSFB and establish patterns of volatility. Stock returns showed heteroskedasticity throughout the study period was found in this study. The mean returns were positive for both AUSFB and Equitas SFB over the study period. The GARCH model is very good at modeling volatility clustering; hence it was used. Therefore, findings from the model were faithful to real data. In fact, this demonstrated that stock prices have heteroscedasticity, which is in line with the use of the GARCH Model. This

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KOPSIDIS, MICHAEL, and DANIEL W. BROMLEY. "The French revolution and German industrialization: dubious models and doubtful causality." Journal of Institutional Economics 12, no. 1 (2015): 161–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1744137415000223.

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AbstractWe challenge the ‘big-bang’ approach to economic history offered by Acemogluet al.(2011). The creation story in dispute is the French Revolution and the subsequent French occupation of a very small portion of Germany. We show that the four institutional reforms claimed to have spurred German industrialization have been incorrectly dated. These corrections nullify any explanatory power of the ACJR econometric model. Moreover, even with the corrected vintages, their identification strategy is undermined by a flawed ‘explanatory’ variable – ‘years of reform’. We show that this variable si

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Pasaribu, Pananda. "Female Directors and Firm Performance: Evidence from UK Listed Firms." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 19, no. 2 (2017): 145. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.15619.

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The impact of female directors on firm performance has lacked consistency in the previously conducted empirical studies, which may be due to the endogeneity problem, or certain characteristics (i.e. governance, industry, competition). This study examines the relationship between female directors and firm performance by addressing those problems. This study analyses all non-financial UK listed firms during the period 2004-2012 and employs several econometric models. The regression results indicate that there is little evidence that female directors have a positive and strong relationship with f

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Kowerski, Mieczysław, Małgorzata Wolańczyk, and Mariusz Poninkiewicz. "A Proposition for a Methodology to Assess the Influence of European Union Funds on Living Conditions among Citizens of a Commune." Barometr Regionalny. Analizy i Prognozy 13, no. 3 (2015): 105–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.56583/br.741.

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In this paper a two phase methodology to assess the influence of the European Union funds on living conditions among citizens of a commune was proposed. During the first the total index of living conditions in a given commune during a specific time period is calculated. During the second phase econometric logit models of the dependence of the total index on the share of the EU funds invested in a given commune are constructed. The developed methodology has been illustrated with calculations concerning the small, rural commune Zarzecze from the Podkarpackie Voivodship during the years 2003–2013

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Rzymowski, Witold, and Agnieszka Surowiec. "Modelling Population Growth with Difference Equation Method." Przegląd Statystyczny 64, no. 3 (2017): 339–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0826.

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In this paper, we present a new method of the econometric model construction: the difference equation method. We illustrate the proposed approach using an application example from human population dynamic study. We find out that proposed method is very useful to find one of the three forms of proposed models of human population satisfying the small maximal relative errors. The maximal relative error is a measure to verify the model of human population. The proposed method is tested for all available data referring to the human population in the OECD countries as well as in selected non-OECD co

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Enders, Walter, and Gary A. Hoover. "The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty." American Economic Review 102, no. 3 (2012): 267–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.3.267.

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In spite of the common wisdom that poverty breeds terrorism, econometric tests usually find that terrorism is influenced by population and various measures of democratic freedom, but not per capita GDP. Unlike previous studies, we use a data set containing separate measures of domestic and transnational terrorism and estimate models allowing for a nonlinear relationship between terrorism and poverty. When we account for the nonlinearities in the data and distinguish between the two types of terrorist events, we find that poverty has as a very strong influence on domestic terrorism and a small,

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Ye, Shun, Honggen Xiao, Tianyu Ying, and Lingqiang Zhou. "Determinants of small accommodation business size." International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 31, no. 4 (2019): 1626–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijchm-04-2018-0290.

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PurposeThis paper aims to model and empirically test the determinants of small accommodation business (SAB) size.Design/methodology/approachThis study distinguishes among three aspects of SAB size (accommodation scale, investment and employment) and between two modes of growth (managerial and entrepreneurial growth). A conceptual framework was developed based on business growth theory, whereby three econometric models were constructed and estimated to predict size variations. Data were collected through a survey on 200 SABs in North Zhejiang Province of China. Effects of the determinants were

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Toshaliyeva, Saodat. "Using the Arima model to forecast the share of railways in the industry." E3S Web of Conferences 531 (2024): 02024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202453102024.

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The relevance of the studied topic is related to the statistical study of the contribution of using the Arima model to forecast the share of railways in the industry to the socio-economic development of the country, the analysis of the dynamics of their economic growth, and the need to develop and evaluate the most appropriate economic-mathematical models for managing the type of activity. Taking into account that various econometric models can be used in the analysis of problems related to small business activity, we found it necessary to use some of these models. The purpose of the study is

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Koçiu, Lorenc, and Kledian Kodra. "Using the Econometric Models for Identification of Risk Factors for Albanian Smes (Case Study: Smes of Gjirokastra Region)." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS 18 (January 5, 2021): 163–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23207.2021.18.17.

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Using the econometric models, this paper addresses the ability of Albanian Small and Medium-sizedEnterprises (SMEs) to identify the risks they face. To write this paper, we studied SMEs operating in theGjirokastra region. First, qualitative data gathered through a questionnaire was used. Next, the 5-level Likertscale was used to measure it. Finally, the data was processed through statistical software SPSS version 21,using the binary logistic regression model, which reveals the probability of occurrence of an event when allindependent variables are included. Logistic regression is an integral p

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Davia, María A., and Nuria Legazpe. "Decisiones laborales de las mujeres casadas o cohabitantes en España." Studies of Applied Economics 30, no. 3 (2020): 1065. http://dx.doi.org/10.25115/eea.v30i3.3618.

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of employment decisions (entry and exit from employment) of married or cohabiting women in Spain. We use the Fertility, Family and Values Survey of 2006, conducted by the Sociological Research Centre in 2006. The econometric technique deployed consists in different discrete-time duration models using Meyer’s application (Meyer, 1990) to Prentice-Gloeckler model (1978) that enables control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show, among other things, that highly educated women and women from more recent cohorts are more likely to (re-)e

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