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1
Malley, James R., David Bell, and John Foster. "The specification, estimation and simulation of a small global macroeconomic model." Economic Modelling 8, no. 4 (October 1991): 546–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(91)90033-k.
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Milani, Fabio. "HAS GLOBALIZATION TRANSFORMED U.S. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS?" Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, no. 2 (March 13, 2012): 204–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000477.
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This paper estimates a structural New Keynesian model to test whether globalization has changed the behavior of U.S. macroeconomic variables. Several key coefficients in the model–such as the slopes of the Phillips and IS curves, the sensitivities of domestic inflation and output to “global” output, and so forth–are allowed in the estimation to depend on the extent of globalization (modeled as the changing degree of openness to trade of the economy), and, therefore, they become time-varying. The empirical results indicate that globalization can explain only a small part of the reduction in the slope of the Phillips curve. The sensitivity of U.S. inflation to global measures of output may have increased over the sample, but it remains very small. The changes in the IS curve caused by globalization are similarly modest. Globalization does not seem to have led to an attenuation in the effects of monetary policy shocks. The nested closed-economy specification still appears to provide a substantially better fit of U.S. data than various open-economy specifications with time-varying degrees of openness. Some time variation in the model coefficients over the postwar sample exists, particularly in the volatilities of the shocks, but it is unlikely to be related to globalization.
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Khan, Gulzar, Adiqa Kiani, and Ather Maqsood Ahmed. "Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 22, no. 2 (January 1, 2017): 39–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2017.v22.i2.a2.
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Using a structural vector autoregressive model, this study investigates the extent to which international oil price shocks have influenced the Chinese economy over the period 1991–2014. Given China’s intensified macroeconomic activity and its increasing demand for energy resources, we also examine the endogenous response of international oil prices to economic conditions in the country. To that end, we derive and empirically estimate a small open-economy New Keynesian model for China and the rest of the world. Our results show that the Chinese economy is relatively more sensitive to global economic conditions than to domestic policy actions. Global productivity shocks appear to be the most important variable causing Chinese macroeconomic activity through trade, where oil prices impact aggregate demand negatively.
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Fang, Xiaoping, Jake Ansell, and Weiya Chen. "Modeling of a Small Transportation Company’s Start-Up with Limited Data during Economic Recession." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2013 (2013): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/802528.
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This paper presents a modeling method for analyzing a small transportation company’s start-up and growth during a global economic crisis which had an impact on China which is designed to help the owners make better investment and operating decisions with limited data. Since there is limited data, simple regression model and binary regression model failed to generate satisfactory results, so an additive periodic time series model was built to forecast business orders and income. Since the transportation market is segmented by business type and transportation distance, a polynomial model and logistic curve model were constructed to forecast the growth trend of each segmented transportation market, and the seasonal influence function was fitted by seasonal ratio method. Although both of the models produced satisfactory results and showed very nearly the same of goodness-of-fit in the sample, the logistic model presented better forecasting performance out of the sample therefore closer to the reality. Additionally, by checking the development trajectory of the case company’s business and the financial crisis in 2008, the modeling and analysis suggest that the sample company is affected by national macroeconomic factors such as GDP and import & export, and this effect comes with a time lag of one to two years.
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Oladunni, Sunday. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria." Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 10 No. 2 (February 21, 2020): 39–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.33429/cjas.10219.2/6.
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This study employs a sign-restricted Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (BSVAR) model to analyse how global demand, oil price and the US monetary policy shocks impact the Nigerian business cycle. The objective is to uncover the dominant external drivers of the business cycle in Nigeria. Results show that global demand and oil price shocks are the principal foreign drivers of the Nigerian business cycle. The global demand shock elicits the strongest responses from output growth and inflation; while oil price shock impacts the terms-of-trade and interest rate the most. The historical contributions of the global demand and oil price shocks to the evolution of output growth are significant and comparable, while that of oil price shock to inflation and interest rate is dominant. Further sensitivity analysis of pre-crisis period of 2008/09 suggests that macroeconomic risk arising from global demand shock is systematic, owing to the comparable impact on output growth and similar interest rate response in the two estimations. Evidence suggests that the GFC may have contributed to the more volatile inflation response to global demand shock in our full sample estimation. Given the strong and pervasive impact of the global demand shock on output growth, Nigeria can manage its vulnerability by shrinking the size of oil exports in its terms-of-trade, while growing non-oil exports progressively through sustained economic diversification and viable industrialization strategy.
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Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V. "The foreign exchange regime in a small open economy: Armenia and beyond." Journal of Economic Studies 44, no. 5 (October 9, 2017): 781–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2016-0155.
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Purpose Offering an example of a small open developing economy, the purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons for relative stability in Armenia’s foreign exchange market. Relying on a single currency and derived cross-currency exchange rates, the paper models short-term effects between exchange market pressure and financial and macroeconomic factors. Design/methodology/approach Following a literature review, the paper sets the macroeconomic context with an initial variance comparison of standard currency pairs and derived cross-currency exchange rates. Then, the core analysis is carried out with a vector error correction model, focusing on short-term cross-dynamics in monthly data. The orthogonal impulse response function analyses help solidify and further inform relevant conclusions. Findings Three broad factors influence Armenia’s foreign exchange market: external push factors; domestic banking sector competition, and foreign currency risk perceptions; and domestic macroeconomic and dual, cross-pair, exchange rate target priorities. The central bank’s implicit management of the foreign exchange market’s expectations, pull factor, is consistent with trader market power’s contribution to lower volatility. Yet, the risk of financial and real-sector decoupling remains. Originality/value The results are relevant for emerging markets attempting to leverage the global liquidity and low interest rates, while being exposed to external pressures in the post-crisis environment, in which international reserves may be scarce while currency stability is an implied priority. This study can be further adapted to a more comprehensive structural short-term analysis of currency determination or similar dynamics in other small open economies.
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Kiseľáková, Dana, Beáta Šofranková, Miroslav Gombár, Veronika Čabinová, and Erika Onuferová. "Competitiveness and Its Impact on Sustainability, Business Environment, and Human Development of EU (28) Countries in terms of Global Multi-Criteria Indices." Sustainability 11, no. 12 (June 18, 2019): 3365. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11123365.
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In this paper, the following research problem was addressed: Is there a significant economic impact of multidimensional specified competitiveness within the EU (28) countries on the competitive business environment, human development, and sustainable growth? Based on the mentioned research problem, we formulated the aim of paper: To detect the significant interrelations among the assessment of global competitiveness, business environment as well as human development in the EU (28) countries for the period of 2006–2017. To address these problems, the methodology of global multi-criteria indices, namely the global competitiveness index (GCI), doing business index (DBI), and human development index (HDI), as well as panel analysis and non-linear regression analyses with ANOVA, were applied. The panel analysis results suggest that there is a direct linear relationship between the GCI and HDI. Moreover, the impact of the DBI on the change in the GCI score was not confirmed. We identified the main areas of countries’ interest, and important economic and statistical significant relations of competitiveness by creating three models: The GD model (constructed by GCI and DBI scores), GH model (GCI and HDI scores), and GDH model (GCI, DBI and HDI scores). Based on the results, all interrelations were confirmed. However, the highest extent of variability for the explanation of the selected data was recorded in the case of the GDH model (87.12%). We detected the impact of the business environment and human resources as competitive advantages on global macroeconomic competitiveness. As the business sector in EU (28) countries is represented mainly by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), enterprise activities play a key role in the process of sustainable competitive economic development. Moreover, human resources are considered to be another important driver of the internationalization of European SMEs.
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Devereux, Michael B., and Changhua Yu. "International Financial Integration and Crisis Contagion." Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 3 (October 9, 2019): 1174–212. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz054.
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Abstract International financial integration helps to diversify risk but also may spread crises across countries. We provide a quantitative analysis of this trade-off in a two-country general equilibrium model with collateral-constrained borrowing using a global solution method. Borrowing constraints bind occasionally, depending upon the state of the economy and levels of inherited debt. We examine different degrees of international financial integration, moving from financial autarky, to bond and equity market integration. Financial integration leads to a significant increase in global leverage, substantially escalates the probability of crises for any one country, and dramatically increases the degree of “contagion” across countries. Outside of crises, the impact of financial integration on macroeconomic aggregates is relatively small. But the impact of a crisis with integrated international financial markets is much less severe than that under financial market autarky. Thus, a trade-off emerges between the probability of crises and the severity of crises. Using a large cross-country database of financial crises in developing and developed economies over a forty-year period, we find evidence in support of the model.
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Oladunni, Sunday. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics in an Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian DSGE Approach." Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 11 No. 1 (September 9, 2020): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.33429/cjas.11120.1/5.
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The global oil dynamics has significant implications for both oil exporting and importing small open economies. However, much of the literature on oil shocks is oriented towards advanced oil-importing economies. Micro-founded studies that explore the effects of oil shocks from the standpoint of oil-endowed emerging economies are rather sparse, compared to the preponderance of studies on developed oil importers and exporters. Thus, resulting to a consequential knowledge gap on oil price transmission mechanism and a limited appreciation of the growing policy dilemmas in these economies. The paper, therefore, sets up a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study how an oil price shock impacts on macroeconomic aggregates in an oil-rich emerging economy. We consider a positive oil price shock to uncover the extent to which oil price increase is positive for the economy. The typical small open economy model is enriched with an export-oriented oil firm, a multi-sector foreign production and a non-oil domestic firm. The model is closed with exchange rate-augmented interest rate rule, and it is calibrated for Nigeria, an important oil producer. Macroeconomic responses, sequel to a simulated positive oil price shock, reveal evidence of Dutch disease and the operation of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a compelling need for oil-endowed emerging economies to address these phenomena by ensuring a robust non-oil sector with limited exposure to the vagaries of oil price oscillation.
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Wang, Shu Ping, Tao Wen, and Zhen Xin Wu. "The Evolution of Loss Aversion Coefficient in Energy Futures Market Considering Investor Heterogeneity." Applied Mechanics and Materials 291-294 (February 2013): 1263–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.291-294.1263.
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The energy futures market has become the center of global energy market, so, problems in the energy futures market have profound impact on many aspects of the macroeconomic. In this paper, with the premise of the existence of investor heterogeneity, we use stochastic Euler equation and prospect theory to establish a mathematical model of price fluctuations which varies with the time change, and the model is testable for generalized method of moment (GMM) model. According to the GMM estimation results, in the one-year period, when we set a certain time point to be the initial point, with the passage of time, loss aversion coefficient will gradually increase, while it will reduce with the increase of the discount factor. We also verify that the loss aversion coefficient of investors who response to market information rapidly is relatively small. But in the long term, the evolution of loss aversion coefficient needs further research.
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Abdel-Baki, Monal, Alexander Kostyuk, and Dmitriy Govorun. "Will the proposed regulatory reforms by the Basel committee improve economic performance in emerging economies? An empirical application to Egypt and Ukraine." Corporate Ownership and Control 8, no. 2 (2011): 14–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv8si1p2.
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The aim of this research is to assess the efficacy of the prospective reforms proposed by the Basel Committee on emerging market economies. Egypt and Ukraine are selected as comparative case studies representing middle-income developing nations and transition economies that have shown diverse reactions to the global crisis. Using a small-scale DSGE model, the projected changes to capital adequacy measures, minimum liquidity requirements and Corporate Governance are tested on a set of macroeconomic outputs: GDP growth, employment, inflation and interest rates over the period of 2000:01-2010:03. The results reveal that the DSGE model is an inaccurate forecasting tool for both nations. Also, the impacts of the proposed regulatory reforms are quite detrimental for Ukraine, but better weathered by the Egyptian economy, implying that emerging nations that were well geared up through meeting requirements of Basel II will show more resilience to the costliness of future reforms.
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KAABIA, Olfa, and Ilyes ABID. "Theoretical Channels Of International Transmission During The Subprime Crisis To OECD Countries: A FAVAR Model Under Bayesian Framework." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 29, no. 2 (February 13, 2013): 443. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v29i2.7649.
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-layout-grid-align: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper studies whether and how U.S. shocks are transmitted to other OECD economies in the case of the Subprime Crisis. Using a large data set of 119 major financial and macroeconomic variables in 17 OECD countries from 1980:Q1 to 2006:Q2, we characterize the transmission channels by the interpretable factors and make a structural analysis using FAVAR models under a Bayesian approach. </span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-layout-grid-align: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"> </span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-layout-grid-align: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Our main findings suggest that differences exist in the contagion effects. This implies that no generalizations can be made for OECD countries even of equal economic size and in the same geographic region. Our results show that a large portion of the variance of domestic economic variables is explained by global factors and that the interest rate shock appears to play an important role in the spillover mechanism from the U.S to the OECD countries. </span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>
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Spremo, Tihomir, and Jelena Mićić. "SMALL ENTERPRISES: KEY SOURCE OF EMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH." ЗБОРНИК РАДОВА ЕКОНОМСКОГ ФАКУЛТЕТА У ИСТОЧНОМ САРАЈЕВУ 1, no. 11 (May 4, 2016): 63. http://dx.doi.org/10.7251/zrefis1511063s.
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Small enterprises, within the market economy, are initiators of economic development and an important part of every national economy. Due to the nature of private property, entrepreneurial spirit, flexibility and adaptability, as well as their potential to react to the challenges and turbulences in the environment, small businesses give a special contribution to economic growth and higher employment. Entrepreneurship and small business represent a significant and fundamental source for creation of new jobs and expansion of new business practices by providing a significant contribution to economic growth. This applies both to small businesses in the Republic of Srpska and the ones that are located anywhere in the world. The role of small enterprises is especially important in transition countries. During the global economic crisis, small businesses have, both in developed economies, and in the Republic of Srpska and BiH as a whole, proved to be resilient, although this period was characterized by a very poor business environment. The importance of entrepre-neurship and small firms in developing national economies are often the subject of professional and empirical discussion. However, recent developments have further confirmed the views that small businesses, in dealing with all the negativities of poor business environment in times of crisis, more quickly adapt to changes compared to larger enterprises and companies. This quality of small enterprises gives enough reason to pay special attention to the theoretical and practical aspects of this phenomenon, in order to make appropriate business decisions and implementation of development policy as a more efficient model for faster economic development of the national economy. The subject of this paper is to define the importance of small businesses in the economic growth of developed and developing countries. Through researching analyses, this paper examines the role and importance of small enterprises in economies of the European Union (EU) member states and the Republic of Srpska and BiH, especially regarding its influence on the employment growth and added value in a period of economic crisis and post-crisis years. This paper aims to explore and emphasize the interdependence between growth of small firms and new added values, reviewing economic development and employment in both developed and economies in transition. This paper attempts to present the importance of effects of analyzed economic indicators as a result of small enterprises in two separate periods (the period of global crisis and post-crisis period) and provide guidance and recommendations to policy makers on economic role of small firms in macroeconomic stability of the economy.
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Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, Peter Josef Stauvermann, Arvind Patel, and Selvin Sanil Prasad. "Determinants of non-performing loans in banking sector in small developing island states." Accounting Research Journal 31, no. 2 (July 2, 2018): 192–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/arj-06-2015-0077.
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PurposeThe banking sector stability depends in large part on the size of non-performing loans (NPLs). Hence, the factors which explain the problem loans are very useful information for banks. Notably, studies in this regard with respect to the small developing countries’ banking sector have received less attention. Therefore, this study aims to examine the determinants of NPLs with a case of Fiji’s banking sector, over the period 2000-2013.Design/methodology/approachThe balanced sample consists of the entire banking sector (five commercial banks and two non-bank financial institutions). First, the authors estimate a base model which comprise bank-specific indicators that are related to bank management and then they extend the estimations to include macroeconomic/structural factors such as economic growth, inflation, changes of the real effective exchange rate, unemployment, remittances, political instability and external events like the global financial crisis. The estimations are done using pooled OLS, the random effects and the fixed effects regression methods.FindingsThe results show that the following indicators have negative association with NPL and are statistically significant with the conventional levels: return on equity, capital adequacy requirement, market share based on assets, unemployment and time. On the other hand, the net interest margin has a positive and statistically significant association with NPL.Research limitations/implicationsSubsequently, the stability of the banking sector in small developing countries such as Fiji is largely dependent on banks’ profitability, solvency, size in terms of market share and the presence of a learning curve and keeping a close tab on the interest rate spread between loans and deposits.Practical implicationsThe paper highlights the specific factors determining NPL in small developing economy of Fiji.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine specific factors determining NPLs with respect to small developing economies in the Oceania region.
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Cerovic, Bozidar, Aleksandra Nojkovic, and Milica Uvalic. "Growth and industrial policy during transition." Ekonomski anali 59, no. 201 (2014): 7–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka1401007c.
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After twenty-five years of economic transition economic performance varies considerably in transition countries, while in most cases current outcomes show that the desired effects have not been achieved. In this paper we elaborate on why industrial policy has been a key missing element in the transition and has greatly contributed to the unexpectedly small and slow pace of economic recovery. After discussing the achieved level of economic development we undertake an empirical analysis in order to define the role of several important factors of growth, as seen at the beginning of transition (reform progress, macroeconomic stabilisation, initial conditions) and those that attracted particular attention during the global crisis (industrial/manufacturing output, exports). The analysis shows that the growth model in transition economies has altered both over time and in relation to the progress of transition reforms. The most important change concerns the share of industrial output in GDP, which is found to be one of the most important factors of growth after the initial phase of reform. These results suggest that transition economies should implement industrial policy measures as an integral part of their reform strategy instead of just speeding up reforms as the key (if not the only) element of government policy. Based on these results, we explore what would be a viable and proper industrial policy in transition countries, particularly what should be done in current conditions after the damaging effects of the recurrent global recession, and make some policy suggestions.
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Azis, Iwan Jaya. "Macroeconomics Post-GFC." Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia 8, no. 1 (August 1, 2019): 103–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.52813/jei.v8i1.14.
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The core model of macroeconomics we teach in colleges and universities uses incredible assumptions to reach absurd conclusions. Among those assumptions are, no financial frictions such as credit rationing, individuals had rational expectations or acted as if they did, and representative agent to represent an aggregation of firm or household sector whose optimizing behaviors are micro-founded. With no financial frictions, the model fails to explain a major event such as the 2008 GFC. Why small shocks can have very large effects (amplification) that last so long (persistence), and why deep downturns can occur repeatedly with powerful spillovers and contagion effects? Constructed for analyzing only small fluctuations, the current core model is likely to provide little guidance as to what should be done in response. In this paper, I argue that the key problem with the current macroeconomics is the superficiality of its treatment towards financial sector. It is shown that financial frictions played a significant role in capital flows fluctuations, external shocks created channels of spillover and contagion across countries and across asset classes, capital flows with the presence of financial frictions made monetary policy more challenging, and they could be detrimental to financial stability and the distribution of income. Corrections and adjustments to existing core macroeconomic model should be based on empirical evidence and how the economy works, not on the esthetic riddles of established paradigm.
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Mota, Paulo, Abel Costa Fernandes, and Ana-Cristina Nicolescu. "The recent sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone: A matter of fundamentals?" Acta Oeconomica 65, no. 1 (March 1, 2015): 1–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.65.2015.1.1.
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The idea that the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis was caused by structural weaknesses degenerating into fundamental macroeconomic imbalances in the peripheral countries prevails among international institutions such as the IMF, the ECB, and the European Commission. On the contrary, some economists believe that this crisis is the consequence of major deficiencies in the architecture of economic policy making in the Euro zone that did not allow a proper response to a global systemic crisis of the financial markets that started in the United States. The objective of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the public debt dynamics in the EU, differentiating the case of Euro zone peripheral countries. We used quarterly data from 2000 to 2011 to estimate a small-scale model that takes into account the interactions between key variables. Our results do not support entirely the official view. We conclude that the cause of the adverse debt dynamics unravelling after 2007 was a sharp GDP contraction, coupled with a substantial increase in the interest cost of debt finance due to higher self-fulfilling solvency risks perceived by creditors, interacting with a higher sensitiveness of Euro zone peripheral countries to fundamentals.
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Assous, Michaël, Amitava Dutt, Paul Fourchard, and Antonin Pottier. "(IN)-STABILITY IN KALECKI’S EARLY MACROECONOMICS." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 39, no. 1 (December 19, 2016): 69–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837216001097.
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It is now almost eighty years since Michal Kalecki published his formal mathematical model of the business cycle. In this paper, we want to examine the vision embedded in that early model and the writings he published at around the same time. Sections II and III center on Kalecki’s approach to local and global (in)-stability, and section IV suggests a simplified model designed to pinpoint key aspects of Kalecki’s thinking related to the issue of endogenous cycles, ‘class struggle,’ and growth.
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Morley, James, Irina B. Panovska, and Tara M. Sinclair. "TESTING STATIONARITY WITH UNOBSERVED-COMPONENTS MODELS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 1 (March 8, 2016): 160–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000437.
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In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, competing measures of the trend in macroeconomic variables such as U.S. real GDP have featured prominently in policy debates. A key question is whether large shocks to macroeconomic variables will have permanent effects—i.e., in econometric terms, do the data contain stochastic trends? Unobserved-components models provide a convenient way to estimate stochastic trends for time series data, with their existence typically motivated by stationarity tests that allow at most a deterministic trend under the null hypothesis. However, given the small sample sizes available for most macroeconomic variables, standard Lagrange multiplier tests of stationarity will perform poorly when the data are highly persistent. To address this problem, we propose the use of a likelihood ratio test of stationarity based directly on the unobserved-components models used in estimation of stochastic trends. We demonstrate that a bootstrap version of this test has far better small-sample properties for empirically relevant data-generating processes than bootstrap versions of the standard Lagrange multiplier tests. An application to U.S. real GDP produces stronger support for the presence of large permanent shocks using the likelihood ratio test than using the standard tests.
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Paramita, Desak Putu Ristami, Nunung Nuryartono, and Noer Azam Achsani. "ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN." JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 4, no. 1 (February 4, 2018): 28–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/jekp.4.1.28-48.
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Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM
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Paramita, Desak Putu Ristami, Nunung Nuryartono, and Noer Azam Achsani. "ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN." JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN 4, no. 1 (February 4, 2018): 28–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/jekp.4.1.2015.28-48.
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Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM
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Bandura, Oleksandr, and Valeriia Tkachova. "Local Effects from the Monetary Policy Globalization." Scientific Papers NaUKMA. Economics 6, no. 1 (July 30, 2021): 21–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.18523/2519-4739.2021.6.1.21-27.
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Most central banks of developed countries realize the “quantitative easing” (QE) monetary policy that allows us to speak about globalization as for monetary policy, as for this policy effects. We identified some positive and negative effects from the QE policy for the US economy (as the issuing country) and for Ukraine (as a country that accept of this policy effects on local level) that can be taking into account when national economy economic planning.At the base of author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics we proposed possible explanation for this monetary policy effects for the US economy that have no satisfied explanation within well-known models: 1) comparatively low economic growth rate under the QE monetary policy; 2) phenomenon of low inflation under sharp rising of money supply as a result of the QE policy; 3) phenomenon of record employment under comparatively small economic growth rate. Also we identified some other effects of the QE monetary policy that can be explained within well-known models. There are the following ones: negative interest rates for bonds market, the US dollar weakening on FOREX market, price rising for gold and various digital assets. We proposed some possible ways to use global effects from the QE monetary policy to benefit Ukrainian economy. For example, we proposed to change the structure of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in order to increase its value, actually, under the risk-free way. We can use periods of the US economy stimulus provided by Federal Reserve Bank to increase part of gold in the reserves with corresponding decreasing of foreign exchange part. When the stimulus will be stopped, we proposed to decrease part of gold with corresponding increasing of foreign exchange part. Conclusions, tied with impact of the cumulative market imperfections value (ΔР) on economic growth rate obtained for the US economy, are valid and for Ukrainian economy, because, beforehand, we proved the validity of our CMI-model for national economy, too. JEL classification: E30, E31, E32, E37
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Blažević, Branko. "TOURISM AS FUNCTION OF STRATEGY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CROATIA." Tourism and hospitality management 5, no. 1-2 (December 1999): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.20867/thm.5.1-2.1.
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Since Croatia does not have an economic strategy it follows that it has no export strategy. It can he said that the macroeconomic policy does more to hinder than to inherence exports. Croatia has not managed to create nor define its strategic national products. The author is trying to present and argue the meaning of export and specially the national tourist product as the strategic product of Croatia. Export is the basic supposition o f total stability and future development of Croatian economy. Croatian market, without export, is too small for any serious development of one's own. Croatian economy should be adjusted for the global market, especially for the market of EU, CEFTA and CEI. The basic instruments for such economic policy are real exchange rate and corresponding export stimulating policy. The exchange rate policy and the export promoting policy are essential for the enforcement of export oriented strategy. The author is looking upon Croatian tourism as a good model for an open economy and is trying to contemplate this model as a economic locomotive, about which a considerable portion of Croatian economists unfortunately have not a right imagination. It makes demands for moving many of tourist policy mechanism, which will finally vindicate the epithet of “priority activities’’ and allow “to develop tourism resources". All this demands even more and ambitious goals and projects of tourism development, further sophisticated marketing activities and especially “state intervention’’ for stimulating measures. Without implementation of these propositions, tourism will never have any change for faster development. This will result in deeper lag from Europe and other developed countries.
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Rudzkis, Rimantas, and Roma Valkavičienė. "ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES ON THE STOCK MARKET IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 20, no. 4 (December 16, 2014): 783–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.949901.
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The article examines the dependencies of individual sectoral stock price indices of OMX Baltic security market on macroeconomic indicators, using econometric methods. Regression models are constructed using quarterly time series of 2000–2011 years while the methodology is backed with the findings of Lithuanian and foreign scientists from an extensive overview of specific literature. Regression equations, obtained in the paper, allows us to identify the key macroeconomic and global indicators that statistically significantly affect the Baltic securities market and to quantify their impact on the stock price indices of individual sectors in the Baltic countries. Econometric analysis of OMX Baltic security market proves the hypothesis that the set of macroeconomic regressors may vary considerably depending on the individual sector's price indices, especially in the case of small open economy with immature stock markets. The paper provides investors who are shaping their portfolios taking into account the macroeconomic forecasts with additional opportunities on the basis of sectoral stock price indices regression equations.
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Kiley, Michael T. "The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges." Annual Review of Financial Economics 12, no. 1 (November 1, 2020): 305–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012820-012703.
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Real interest rates have been persistently below historical norms over the past decade, leading economists and policy makers to view the equilibrium real interest rate as likely to be low for some time. Various definitions and approaches to estimating the equilibrium real interest rate are examined, including approaches based on the term structure of interest rates and small macroeconomic models. The individual country approaches common in the literature are extended to allow for global trend and cyclical factors. The analysis finds that global factors dominate the downward trend in the equilibrium interest rate across 13 advanced economies. A corollary of this finding is that the U.S. equilibrium rate can be informed by global developments and is recently lower than estimated in U.S.-only studies. The analysis also highlights how the common global trend confounds empirical assessments of the determinants of movements in the equilibrium rate and the need to better integrate term-structure and macroeconomic approaches.
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Ahmadova, Esmira, Lala Hamidova, and Leyla Hajiyeva. "Diversification of the economy in the context of globalization (case of Azerbaijan)." SHS Web of Conferences 92 (2021): 07002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219207002.
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Research background: Azerbaijan, as a country with rich mineral resources, faces macroeconomic difficulties due to income instability. In 2011-2013, during the period of high world oil prices, Azerbaijan began to diversify the economy and develop the non-oil sector at the expense of oil and gas export revenues. The need to diversify the economy and export has become especially important in the conditions of increased global competition and the integration of the national economy into the world economy. Purpose of the article: The aim of the issue is assessment and study the characteristics of diversification of the economy of Azerbaijan, analyze the dependence of the country’s economic development on the degree of diversification of its economy and exports, assess the level of economic diversification of the country. Methods: To measure the level of diversification, we used indicators such as Herfindahl-Hirschmann export diversification index, and industry concentration in GDP. The originality and value of the research lies in revelation a number of indicators specific to the Azerbaijani economy that affect economic growth based on correlation-regression analysis and other econometric methods. According to econometric characteristics, the resulting model is adequate and confirms the empirical findings Findings & Value added: The results of the study showed that deeper diversification of the economy is required. To overcome oil dependence and conduct effective economic diversification, it is necessary to develop processing industries, expand the accessibility of small and medium enterprises to financial resources, and stimulate foreign investment in the non-oil sector.
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Dekhtyar, N. A. "Theoretical Tasks of Determining the Sectoral Structure of an Economic System." Problems of Economy 3, no. 45 (2020): 45–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-3-45-55.
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The article aims to determine the methodical approach to the analytical assessment of the structure of a country’s national economy in accordance with the sectoral classification of the economic formations theory using tourism as an example. With this aim in mind, the main tasks have been fulfilled, namely: a comparative analysis of the main cost indicators of the global market in the periods of stability and crisis has been carried out through grouping primary, secondary and tertiary economy sectors; the main trends in the dynamics and structure of the tourism industry in Ukraine by volumes of agricultural, industrial and services sales have been identified; the demand pattern of the tourist market in Ukraine has been characterized by determining the contribution of small and microenterprises to the total volume of the products sold; the necessity of providing an additional forecasting approach has been substantiated, the approach being based on carrying out structural analysis and studying intersectoral relationships by means of the number series extrapolation method, used by the World Travel and Tourism Council to determine trends in national tourism markets. Having made a review of research on the theoretical aspects of the national economies classification we have come to conclusion that a three-sectoral model (agriculture, industry, services) still dominates in the field, although it no longer meets modern requirements as to carrying out empirical research. This is the reason why the number of published works, whose authors suggest to expand the list of sectors, has been growing. The author of the study in question suggests to provide an additional independent sector that accumulates surplus funds and distributes them among the market actors. The analysis of the global GDP carried out shows that the shares of the primary sector and extractive industry grow in times of crisis, while the service sector, and tourism in particular, requires macroeconomic stability. The same trends have been observed in Ukraine. The countries of the world have been clustered according to their national economy structure, with Ukraine getting into the most numerous group of countries with a developed agro-industrial complex (though it does not play the leading role in forming the GDP), a high share of the service sector and a sufficient level of industrial production.
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Fujimori, Shinichiro, Toshichika Iizumi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jun’ya Takakura, Kiyoshi Takahashi, and Yasuaki Hijioka. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields." Sustainability 10, no. 10 (October 14, 2018): 3673. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10103673.
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Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%).
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Ignatova, Mihaela, Igor Kukavica, Irena Lasiecka, and Amjad Tuffaha. "Small data global existence for a fluid-structure model." Nonlinearity 30, no. 2 (January 11, 2017): 848–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa4ec4.
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Lorne, Frank, and Pavla Hlozkova. "Creative Collaborative Learning for Macroeconomics: C-Span Video Clips in MBA Classroom." International Journal of Learning and Teaching 8, no. 4 (October 31, 2016): 215. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/ijlt.v8i4.595.
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Creative collaborative learning (CCL) is attempted in a classroom environment for studying macroeconomics for a global economy where the frontier of models and theories are often shaped by decision makers in global and national institutions. The methodology is suitable for student-centered learning MBA students who must put themselves through realistic situations, asking right questions, and making decisions. Traditional top-down methodology of emphasizing model building and mathematical proofs in studying macroeconomics are not suitable at the MBA level. The proposed CCL model in this study entails the joint efforts of three groups of players—the professionals, the students, and the instructor. Constructive knowledge is acquired not by drill and memorization of definitions, but by learning from the contexts in which terminologies are pragmatically applied, utilizing critical thinking. Students in an MBA class were asked to form country-focus teams, identifying country macroeconomic indicators as well as specific issues affecting infrastructure and performance of a country. Specific video clips were searched and reviewed in C-span video library. This search and review exercise were analyzed by evaluating their effectiveness in motivating interests, learning of abstract terminologies, professional manner and articulation method, and recognizing the role of important institutions through the speaking professionals. Our research shows that if students hear a terminology from a professional in a particular field, they connect the term with an experience of listening to the person and also with a face of the person and with the institution where he/she is affiliated with. An abstract concept becomes easier, more pragmatic, and more fun to learn beyond memorization. On that dimension, our classroom experiment achieved good success. However, CCL demands evaluations for “in-the-moment” expressions and quotations that can “elevate thinking” in a student-centered learning environment. CCL is effective for some clips but not generally. Our research also looks into how design of learning activities can better achieve CCL. Keywords: Creative Collaborative Learning; MBA Macroeconomics; C-Span Video Clips
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Lorne, Frank, and Pavla Hlozkova. "Creative collaborative learning for macroeconomics: C-span video clips in MBA classroom." International Journal of Learning and Teaching 8, no. 4 (November 10, 2017): 215–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/ijlt.v8i4.2658.
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Creative collaborative learning (CCL) is attempted in a classroom environment for studying macroeconomics for a global economy where the frontier of models and theories are often shaped by decision makers in global and national institutions. The methodology is suitable for student-centered learning MBA students who must put themselves through realistic situations, asking right questions and making decisions. Traditional top-down methodology of emphasizing model building and mathematical proofs in studying macroeconomics are not suitable at the MBA level. The proposed CCL model in this study entails the joint efforts of three groups of players—the professionals, the students and the instructor. Constructive knowledge is acquired not by drill and memorization of definitions, but by learning from the contexts in which terminologies are pragmatically applied, utilizing critical thinking. Students in an MBA class were asked to form country-focus teams, identifying country macroeconomic indicators as well as specific issues affecting infrastructure and performance of a country. Specific video clips were searched and reviewed in C-span video library. This search and review exercise were analyzed by evaluating their effectiveness in motivating interests, learning of abstract terminologies, professional manner and articulation method, and recognizing the role of important institutions through the speaking professionals. Our research shows that if students hear a terminology from a professional in a particular field, they connect the term with an experience of listening to the person and also with a face of the person and with the institution where he/she is affiliated with. An abstract concept becomes easier, more pragmatic, and more fun to learn beyond memorization. On that dimension, the researchers’ classroom experiment achieved good success. However, CCL demands evaluations for “in-the-moment” expressions and quotations that can “elevate thinking” in a student-centered learning environment. CCL is effective for some clips but not generally. Our research also looks into how design of learning activities can better achieve CCL.
Keywords: Creative Collaborative Learning, C-Span Video Clips, MBA Macroeconomics
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Dimitrova, Boryana. "The Impact of the Global 2020 Health and Economic Crisis on the Consumption of Students Studying Macroeconomics." SHS Web of Conferences 92 (2021): 01007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219201007.
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Research background: 2020 is the first year in recent human history with unprecedented closure of educational institutions and businesses for an extended period of time during the school year. The closure was not the result of military action, but of regulations aimed at stopping the spread of a disease, which at first glance seemed unusually dangerous. This required the learning and work processes to take place in people’s homes and not in the buildings of educational institutions and companies. It also affected the usual individuals’ consumption of goods. For the optimal recovery of the national and world economic and educational systems, it is necessary to have a variety of information about the impact of the crisis on different groups of the population. Purpose of the article: This article aims to present the results of a study of changes in consumption, financial and employment status of students studying macroeconomics at a small Faculty of Economics in Southeast Europe. Methods: The method of the self-administered survey, conducted through Google Forms, disseminated through closed Facebook groups, used for educational purposes, as well as direct sharing of links via Messenger, Viber and e-mail was used. Findings & Value added: The changes in the expenses related to the consumption of key goods by the respondents, their financial and employment status have been identified and discussed. The accumulation of knowledge about living in times of crisis is discussed and the readiness of the respondents to purposefully study crisis management is established in view to the optimal formation of the human capital of the nation and the world.
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Sihombing, Pardomuan, and Hary Saputra Sundoro. "PENGARUH FAKTOR MAKROEKONOMI DAN LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP YIELD CURVE OBLIGASI PEMERINTAH INDONESIA." Media Ekonomi 25, no. 2 (August 9, 2019): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v25i2.4894.
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<em>The purpose of this study is to estimate the movement of the required yield curve as a reference to predict market expectations. The movement of the yield curve is caused by macroeconomics such as the BI rate, inflation, the money supply, the growth of the production index, foreign exchange reserves and foreign investor ownership.</em> <em>This study uses the help of a VAR (Vector Auto Regression) analysis tool or VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) using data from 2007:2-2016:3</em>. <em>The results of this study indicate that all variables both macroeconomic variables and liquidity variables provide a response to the yield curve of government bonds to long-term. In addition, this paper also explains that all variables both in macroeconomics and liquidity variables only have a small contribution to the yield curve but precisely the variable that makes the biggest contribution is the yield curve </em>
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Campolmi, Alessia. "WHICH INFLATION TO TARGET? A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY WITH STICKY WAGES." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 1 (May 24, 2012): 145–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000314.
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There is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objectives of monetary policy. But, in an open economy, two alternative measures of inflation coexist: domestic inflation and consumer price inflation. Which of the two should be the target variable? Most of the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) literature suggests that the monetary authority should stabilize domestic inflation. This is in sharp contrast with the practice of many inflation-targeting central banks that are using consumer price index (CPI) inflation as target variable. The paper shows that the standard result in the NOEM literature is derived under the simplifying assumption of flexible wages. The inclusion of sticky wages in an otherwise standard small open economy model is shown to rationalize CPI inflation targeting. This conclusion is robust to changes in key parameters, including the trade elasticity.
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Ali, Asghar. "DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY IN PAKISTAN." Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research 1, no. 2 (December 30, 2018): 17–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.37605/pjhssr.1.2.2.
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This research is about the impact of determinants of poverty in Pakistan. In this paper five independent macroeconomics variables that are government expenditure, budget deficit, unemployment rate, exchange rate and inflation rate are studied. In methodology, we have applied the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The time series data is used which consist of 19 observation that is 1995 to 2013 which we collect from different sources such as (WDI) and (The Global Economy.Com). Through this model we inquired the effect of Government Expenditure, Budget Deficit, Unemployment Rate, Exchange Rate, and Inflation Rate on poverty in Pakistan. Government expenditure and budget deficit have inverse relationship while unemployment has a direct relationship with poverty in Pakistan. Furthermore in this model we seek the impact of inflation rate and exchange rate which help us show negative relationship with poverty while inflation has also a direct relationship with it. In this thesis all of the five variables have been used with three out of five have negative and the other two have a positive relationship with poverty. Theoretically we have proved the relationship of these macroeconomics variables with the help of reference articles by collecting historical data according to Pakistan perspective on these variables.
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Galí, Jordi. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment." Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 3 (August 1, 2018): 87–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.87.
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In August 2007, when the first signs emerged of what would come to be the most damaging global financial crisis since the Great Depression, the New Keynesian paradigm was dominant in macroeconomics. Ten years later, tons of ammunition has been fired against modern macroeconomics in general, and against dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that build on the New Keynesian framework in particular. Those criticisms notwithstanding, the New Keynesian model arguably remains the dominant framework in the classroom, in academic research, and in policy modeling. In fact, one can argue that over the past ten years the scope of New Keynesian economics has kept widening, by encompassing a growing number of phenomena that are analyzed using its basic framework, as well as by addressing some of the criticisms raised against it. The present paper takes stock of the state of New Keynesian economics by reviewing some of its main insights and by providing an overview of some recent developments. In particular, I discuss some recent work on two very active research programs: the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and the interaction of monetary policy and household heterogeneity. Finally, I discuss what I view as some of the main shortcomings of the New Keynesian model and possible areas for future research.
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Vives, Xavier. "Complementarities and Games: New Developments." Journal of Economic Literature 43, no. 2 (May 1, 2005): 437–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/0022051054661558.
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The theory of monotone comparative statics and supermodular games is presented as the appropriate tool to model complementarities. The approach, which has not yet been fully incorporated into the standard toolbox of researchers, makes the analysis intuitive and simple, helps in deriving new results and in casting new light on old ones. The paper takes stock of recent contributions and develops applications to industrial organization (oligopoly, R&D, and dynamics), finance (currency and banking crisis) and macroeconomics (adjustment and menu costs). Particular attention is devoted to Markov games and to games of incomplete information (including global games).
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Danforth, Christopher M., Eugenia Kalnay, and Takemasa Miyoshi. "Estimating and Correcting Global Weather Model Error." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 2 (February 1, 2007): 281–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3289.1.
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Abstract The purpose of the present study is to explore the feasibility of estimating and correcting systematic model errors using a simple and efficient procedure, inspired by papers by Leith as well as DelSole and Hou, that could be applied operationally, and to compare the impact of correcting the model integration with statistical corrections performed a posteriori. An elementary data assimilation scheme (Newtonian relaxation) is used to compare two simple but realistic global models, one quasigeostrophic and one based on the primitive equations, to the NCEP reanalysis (approximating the real atmosphere). The 6-h analysis corrections are separated into the model bias (obtained by time averaging the errors over several years), the periodic (seasonal and diurnal) component of the errors, and the nonperiodic errors. An estimate of the systematic component of the nonperiodic errors linearly dependent on the anomalous state is generated. Forecasts corrected during model integration with a seasonally dependent estimate of the bias remain useful longer than forecasts corrected a posteriori. The diurnal correction (based on the leading EOFs of the analysis corrections) is also successful. State-dependent corrections using the full-dimensional Leith scheme and several years of training actually make the forecasts worse due to sampling errors in the estimation of the covariance. A sparse approximation of the Leith covariance is derived using univariate and spatially localized covariances. The sparse Leith covariance results in small regional improvements, but is still computationally prohibitive. Finally, singular value decomposition is used to obtain the coupled components of the correction and forecast anomalies during the training period. The corresponding heterogeneous correlation maps are used to estimate and correct by regression the state-dependent errors during the model integration. Although the global impact of this computationally efficient method is small, it succeeds in reducing state-dependent model systematic errors in regions where they are large. The method requires only a time series of analysis corrections to estimate the error covariance and uses negligible additional computation during a forecast. As a result, it should be suitable for operational use at relatively small computational expense.
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Wan, Renhui. "Global small solutions to a tropical climate model without thermal diffusion." Journal of Mathematical Physics 57, no. 2 (February 2016): 021507. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4941039.
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Lei, Zhen, Chun Liu, and Yi Zhou. "Global existence for a 2D incompressible viscoelastic model with small strain." Communications in Mathematical Sciences 5, no. 3 (2007): 595–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.4310/cms.2007.v5.n3.a5.
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Zhao, Wenjing. "The global existence of small solutions to the Oldroyd-B model." Chinese Annals of Mathematics, Series B 32, no. 2 (January 25, 2011): 215–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11401-011-0636-5.
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Lei, Zhen, Fang Hua Lin, and Yi Zhou. "Global solutions of the evolutionary Faddeev model with small initial data." Acta Mathematica Sinica, English Series 27, no. 2 (January 15, 2011): 309–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10114-011-0465-1.
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Lin, Fanghua, and Ting Zhang. "Global Small Solutions to a Complex Fluid Model in Three Dimensional." Archive for Rational Mechanics and Analysis 216, no. 3 (November 25, 2014): 905–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00205-014-0822-1.
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Janger, Edward J. "The U.S. small business bankruptcy amendments: A global model for reform?" International Insolvency Review 29, no. 2 (June 2020): 254–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/iir.1386.
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Changjiang, Zhu. "Global resolvability for a viscoelastic model with relaxation." Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh: Section A Mathematics 125, no. 6 (1995): 1277–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s030821050003050x.
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In this paper, we prove the existence of the global smooth solution for the equation of a viscoelastic model with relaxation in time under the only assumption that the C0-norm of the initial data is small, without smallness hypothesis for the C1-norm.
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Kangas, Annika. "Small-area estimates using model-based methods." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26, no. 5 (May 1, 1996): 758–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x26-085.
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In small areas, the number of sample plots is usually small, and the classical estimators have a large variance. Information from nearby areas can be utilized to improve the subarea estimates using either nonparametric or parametric models. In this study, a number of model-based estimators for small-area estimation are presented. To illustrate the presented methods a numerical example in a real inventory situation is given. The auxiliary information used in this study is pure coordinate information, but the methods are applicable also for other kinds of auxiliary information. The object of this study is to compare the features of the presented small-area estimation methods and to discuss the applicability of these methods in different situations.
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Y. Ye, Fred. "An Economic Analysis of Efficiency and Equality Combining Epistemological True with Axiological Good Through Microeconomics to Macroeconomics." International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, no. 67 (July 15, 2020): 159–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.67.159.169.
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Applying the Arrow-Debreu-Mundell-Fleming model as an economic standard model, with combining axiological framework and epistemological model, it is proposed to analyze economic policies with using a synthetic model, where interest, exchange and tax rates are integrated together. Except normal monetary and fiscal policies mainly via interest and tax rates, there are feasible ways to utilize modified strategies via exchange and tax rates. When ones need to simulate national local market, ones can raise the exchange rate. Otherwise, when ones need to promote international global trade, ones may lower the exchange rate. It is found that tax reduction is good policy when tax rate is higher than normal and that tax increase is good social policy when tax rate is lower than normal, during economic depression. Also it is revealed that tax reduction is good social policy when tax rate is lower than normal, and that tax increase is good policy when tax rate is higher than normal, during economic overheat. While economic system seeks efficiency and social system pursues equality, common interest modifications with elastic exchange and tax rates could be applied for balancing efficiency and equality.
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Poot, Jacques, and Jacques J. Siegers. "The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand." Journal of Population Economics 14, no. 1 (May 10, 2001): 73–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050160.
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VASSOLO, ROBERTO, JAVIER GARCÍA-SÁNCHEZ, and LUIZ MESQUITA. "COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS AND EARLY MOVER ADVANTAGES UNDER ECONOMIC RECESSIONS." Revista de Administração de Empresas 57, no. 1 (February 2017): 22–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0034-759020170103.
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ABSTRACT In light of the recent macroeconomic instability in global markets, we examine the evolution of competitive dynamics and firm profitability when industries are subject to recessions. Although ordinary intuition leads most to view recessions as harmful, we highlight conditions under which they enhance the relative value of industry-level supply-side isolating mechanisms, thereby affording early movers significant and sustainable profit advantages vis-à-vis laggards. We observe that the distribution of firm size within the industry switches from a bi-modal distribution (i.e., one dominated by both small and large firms) to a right-skewed one (i.e., dominated mostly by large firms) in these contexts, thereby signaling the rise of important opportunities in the form of less rivalrous competitive contexts for survivors of recessions. We derive our results from formal modeling and multiple simulation runs.
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Zhu, Yi. "Global small solutions of 3D incompressible Oldroyd-B model without damping mechanism." Journal of Functional Analysis 274, no. 7 (April 2018): 2039–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfa.2017.09.002.
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