Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Socio-economic dynamics'

The aim of the thesis is to describe and analyse socio-economic changes in northern Sweden. Focus is on the period 1985-2000. Population development, restructuring of economic activities, political and cultural changes are related to a theoretical discussion on the transformation of sparsely populated areas as an outcome of multi-dimensional and interrelated processes. Besides an introductory and concluding section, the thesis contains four papers. The first paper deals with forestry's changed role in the local economy of four municipalities located in the inland areas of upper Norrland. The changes within forestry have been driven by adaptation to global competition and rapid technical development. Even though timber production has increased in some of the municipalities, job losses have greatly reduced the importance of forestry in the local economies. Many employees have left forestry for work in other branches, unemployment or retirement However, relatively few have moved from the area. A multiplier model was employed in order to analyse the impact on the local economy. The second paper deals with population changes in the six northernmost counties. During the 1990s, most municipalities and rural areas in northern Sweden have experienced renewed depopulation. At the same time, some rural areas have shown significant population growth. Three types of rural areas with population growth have been identified. Firstly, there are rural areas within daily commuting distance from regional centres. Secondly, there is a group of rural areas, mainly a number of mountain villages close to the border with Norway, which has benefited from the tourist industry. Finally, there are a few rural areas characterised by attractive residential environments and leisure housing. The third paper is based on a classification of 500 residential areas and villages in the county of Västerbotten into seven types of housing environments. In this way, the county is broken down into a mosaic of housing environments characterised by very different prerequisites for consumption and economic development A complex and dispersed pattern of disadvantaged residential areas all over the county indicates the difficulty in treating counties and municipalities as homogeneous regions. In the fourth paper, focus is on young peoples' attitudes towards staying in or moving to small communities within a local labour market region in northern Sweden. The study is based on telephone interviews with 400 young men and women in the Umeå region. Half the interviewees lived in the university city of Umeå while the others were residents in five rural municipalities surrounding Umeå. In general, the males and females aged 19-25 had a much more positive attitude towards living in rural communities than did those aged 15-18. Nevertheless, only half of the young people already living in the rural municipalities wanted to stay there. Among the young people living in the city, slightly less than 50% showed an interest in moving to the surrounding rural areas, mainly the countryside within commuting distance from the city. The connection between higher education and out-migration of young people from rural areas is also highlighted.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Univ., 2002

digitalisering@umu

This dissertation examines the socio-economic and socio-cultural dynamics of medieval Famagusta from the thirteenth to the fifteenth centuries. Contrary to the traditional historiography suggesting that Famagusta enjoyed commercial privilege after the fall of Acre in 1291 and lost its importance with the Genoese occupation of the city in 1374, this work offers more detailed analysis of economic and social dynamics of the late medieval Famagusta by examining wide-range of archival evidence and argues that Famagusta maintained its commercial importance until the late fifteenth century. In late medieval ages, Famagusta enjoyed economic prosperity due to its crucial role in Levant trade as a supplier and distributor of agricultural and luxury merchandise. It hosted nearly all prominent Genoese, Venetian, and Tuscan merchant companies and become one of the most important part of the Levantine trade policy of Venice and Genoa. Moreover, beside the economic growth Famagusta also witnessed social and cultural prosperity which enabled it to bear the title 'emporium'. People from almost every nation lived, visited, co-operated, and enjoyed the cultural wealth where the cultural differences were far from being social disintegration factor. By analysing notarial, fiscal, ecclesiastical and visual evidence from the period under examination, the main elements that are necessary to understand the evolution of medieval 'emporium', such as economic, social, cultural, administrative and urban dynamics, are scrutinized in order to draw more consistent conclusions. Regarding the lack of any monograph on this subject, this dissertation provides the first comprehensive analysis of economic and socio-cultural dynamics of late medieval Famagusta.

The main purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of how complex collective behaviors emerge in social and economic systems. To this end, we use a combination of mathematical analysis and computational simulations along the lines of the agent- or individual-based modeling paradigm. In particular, we focus on three main topics: opinion dynamics, herding behavior in financial markets, and language competition. Opinion dynamics models focus on the processes of opinion formation within a society consisting of an ensemble of interacting individuals with diverse opinions. One of the main problems addressed by these models is whether these processes of opinion formation will eventually lead to the emergence of a consensus within the society or to the fragmentation of its constituent individuals into different opinion groups. We are interested here in situations where the particular issue under consideration allows for opinions to vary continuously, and thus opinions are modeled as real variables. In particular, we focus on a model consisting of two mechanisms or rules for the evolution of the agents' opinions: a mechanism of social influence, by which two interacting agents reach a compromise at the midpoint opinion, and a mechanism of homophily, by which two agents do only interact if their opinion difference is less than a given threshold value. In this context, we study the influence of the initial distribution of opinions in the asymptotic solution of the model. Financial time series are characterized by a number of stylized facts or non-Gaussian statistical regularities found across a wide range of markets, assets and time periods, such as volatility clustering or fat-tailed distributions of returns. A growing number of contributions based on heterogeneous interacting agents have interpreted these stylized facts as the macroscopic outcome of the diversity among the economic actors, and the interplay and connections between them. In particular, we focus here on a stochastic model of information transmission in financial markets based on a competition between pairwise copying interactions between market agents (herding behavior) and random changes of state (idiosyncratic behavior). On the one hand, we develop a generalization of this herding model accounting for the arrival of information from external sources, and study the influence of this incoming information on the market. On the other hand, we study a network-embedded version of the herding model and focus on the influence of the underlying topology of interactions on the asymptotic behavior of the system. Language competition models address the dynamics of language use in multilingual social systems due to social interactions. The main goal of these models is to distinguish between the interaction mechanisms that lead to the coexistence of different languages and those leading to the extinction of all but one of them. While traditionally conceptualized as a property of the speaker, it has been recently proposed that the use of a language can be more clearly described as a feature of the relationship between two speakers ---a link state--- than as an attribute of the speakers themselves ---a node state---. Inspired by this link-state perspective, we first develop a coevolving model that couples a majority rule dynamics of link states with the evolution of the network topology due to random rewiring of links in a local minority. Finally, we develop a model where the coupled dynamics of language use, as a property of the links between speakers, and language preference, as a property of the speakers themselves, are considered in a fixed network topology.
El propósito principal de esta tesis es el de contribuir a la comprensión del modo en el que comportamientos colectivos complejos emergen en sistemas sociales y económicos. En particular, nos centramos en tres temas principales: dinámica de opiniones, comportamiento gregario en mercados financieros y competición lingüística. Los modelos de dinámica de opiniones se centran en los procesos de formación de opiniones en el seno de una sociedad compuesta por un conjunto de individuos en interacción y con opiniones diversas. Uno de los principales problemas abordados por estos modelos es el de determinar si estos procesos de formación de opiniones llevan a la emergencia de un consenso en la sociedad, o si llevan a la segregación de los individuos en diferentes grupos. Nos interesamos aquí por situaciones en las que el asunto que se discute permite la existencia de un contínuo de opiniones y por tanto las opiniones pueden ser modeladas como variables reales. En particular, nos centramos en un modelo consistente en dos mecanismos para la evolución de las opiniones: un mecanismo de influencia social, por el cual dos agentes interaccionantes llegan a un compromiso en el punto medio entre sus opiniones, y un mecanismo de homofilia, por el cual dos agentes interaccionan únicamente si la diferencia entre sus opiniones es inferior a un cierto umbral. En este contexto, estudiamos la influencia de la distribución inicial de opiniones. Las series temporales financieras están caracterizadas por una serie de hechos estilizados o regularidades estadísticas no gaussianas observadas en un amplio rango de mercados, activos y períodos temporales, como el agrupamiento de la volatilidad o las distribuciones de retornos con colas pesadas. Un número creciente de contribuciones basadas en agentes heterogéneos en interacción han venido a ofrecer una interpretación de estos hechos estilizados como el resultado emergente de la diversidad entre actores económicos y de las interacciones y conexiones entre ellos. En particular, nos centramos aquí en un modelo estocástico de transmisión de información en mercados financieros basado en una competición entre interacciones de copia a pares entre agentes de mercado (comportamiento gregario) y cambios de estado aleatorios (comportamiento idiosincrático). Por un lado, desarrollamos una generalización de este modelo de comportamiento gregario para tener en cuenta la llegada de información desde fuentes externas y estudiamos la influencia de esta información entrante en el mercado. Por otro lado, estudiamos una versión en red del modelo de comportamiento gregario y nos centramos en la influencia de la topología subyacente en el comportamiento asintótico del sistema. Los modelos de competición lingüística abordan la dinámica del uso de lenguas en sistemas sociales multilingües debida a interacciones sociales. El principal objetivo de estos modelos es el de diferenciar entre aquellos mecanismos de interacción que llevan a la coexistencia de diferentes lenguas y aquellos que llevan a la extinción de todas menos una. Aunque tradicionalmente se ha conceptualizado como una propiedad del hablante, recientemente se ha propuesto que el uso de una lengua puede ser más claramente descrito como una propiedad de la relación entre dos hablantes ---un estado del enlace--- que como una propiedad de los hablantes ---un estado del nodo---. Inspirados por esta perspectiva, desarrollamos primero un modelo de coevolución que acopla una dinámica de estados en los enlaces basada en una regla de mayoría con la evolución de la topología de la red debida al re-enlace aleatorio de enlaces en una minoría local. Finalmente, desarrollamos un modelo en el que las dinámicas acopladas de uso de la lengua, como propiedad de los enlaces entre hablantes, y preferencia lingüística, como propiedad de los hablantes mismos, son consideradas en una topología de red fija.

We explore economic segregation, social (ethnic) segregation, and long-term economic decline of neighbourhoods in cities as dynamic processes that emerge over time due to interactions between individual agents. Using the classic Schelling model as the basis of our work, we develop agent-based computational models to study both the emergence of such inequitable outcomes and also potential mechanisms that would enable reversing them. We find the emergence of wealth-based segregation, just as predicted by the Schelling model. However, our work posits that we can see a dramatic, non-linear decline in wealth segregation when even a small fraction of households move into neighbourhoods they cannot afford. The value of this 'small fraction' required for the onset of sharp desegregation decreases with the increase in the number of agents willing to move into less wealthier neighbourhoods. When the number of such willing agents is small, we find that over long stretches of time, more than a third of the richest and poorest neighbourhoods tend to retain their economic status compared to a much lower fraction of middle income neighbourhoods, corresponding to empirical observations from American cities. Therefore, for around one in three poor neighbourhoods, poverty can be a long-term reality. However, when we consider all neighbourhoods, change in economic status over time is relatively common, confirming the underlying intuition of descriptive anthropologies about neighbourhood change. We also find that enabling agent movement into neighbourhoods they cannot afford, precipitating non-linear transformation to desegregation, also increases the probability that poor neighbourhoods break out of their poverty traps. Finally, when agent movement in a city is mediated both by wealth and ethnicity, we find that decreasing wealth-based segregation has the effect of necessarily increasing ethnic segregation. This trade-off potentially enables the reconciliation of the empirical evidence on socioeconomic impacts of wealth and ethnic segregations.

Many cities and towns in the Global South continue to experience the growth of the informal sector. There are a number of reasons which explain the growth of the informal sector. These include formal sector retrenchments, shortage of jobs in the formal sector and lack of skills. Street vendors are the most visible traders in the informal sector as compared to other kind of traders. In many cities, the spaces in which vendors conduct their trading is not allocated to them legally as they are seen as a nuisance or obstruction to commerce and the free flow of traffic. Against this background, this study examines the contestation for vending in the East London Central Business District (CBD) Eastern Cape, South Africa. It specifically explores social processes and vendor decision making when it comes to choosing (or claiming) a particular vending space, the legal instruments (by-laws) that either promote or constrain informal trading activities. Furthermore, it investigates the extent to which street vending contributes to the traders‟ income generation and sustainable livelihoods. This study uses a qualitative research design. Purposive sampling was used to select thirty informal traders. In-depth semi structured interviews were conducted with all thirty respondents In addition to the thirty respondents, five key informants were interviewed. The study found that street vending plays a major role in providing BCMM people with livelihood opportunities. Trading space in the CBD is strictly competitive and the spaces they acquire are too small for their businesses to expand to another level. Vendors face a lot of challenges but at the epitome of their challenges is the vending by- laws which the vendors view as a major constraint when it comes to operating smoothly in the streets. The study suggested that vending polices and by- laws be reviewed in order to derive a better socio- economic and functional environment for vendors.

The purpose of the work was to gain an understanding of the factors that influence household decision-making on the allocation of household resources and how these impact on the ability to own and successfully look after livestock. Livestock keeping dynamics were examined in terms of factors such as herd structures, production parameters, the ways in which households acquired and lost livestock and the characteristics of households entering and leaving livestock keeping. The study was undertaken in Funyula and Butula Divisions in Busia, Western Kenya and was carried out by means of a two-year longitudinal survey. Both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods were employed in the form of questionnaires and Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) exercises. Busia district has a typical smallholder crop-livestock production system with most households relying on crops as their main livelihood strategy and livestock being kept as a means of income diversification. The majority of animals entering livestock holdings were born into the holdings and there was only a 3% increase in the number of livestock keeping households over 2 years. Households purchasing animals generally bought the same species as they had sold. The proportion of animals lost through death ranged from 27% to 33% among the all livestock species and the majority of these deaths were disease related. A quarter of cattle sales were directly attributed to disease and between 5% and 7% of cattle and small ruminants were sold because they were ‘unproductive’, a factor that can often be linked to the presence of disease. Livestock disease episodes were higher during the long rains than the dry season, but more money was spent during the dry season when numbers of disease episodes were low. The provision of credit to farmers would help enable farmers make the initial investment in livestock and in the appropriate management of their animals.

This dissertation comprises four chapters, which mainly deal with female's participation in household decision-making, a very important aspect of female's bargaining power within the household and closely linked to female's empowerment. The first three chapters, which all deal with female's participation in household decision-making, are two sides of the same coin, in that while the first one delves into the determinants of female's participation in household decision-making, the second and third chapters deal with its beneficial consequences. The fourth chapter is linked with Chapter 1. As a matter of fact, the data used in Chapter 1 has been collected in Rural Burundi, in the framework of the FNRS/FRFC-funded project “Microfinance Services, Intra-household Behavior and Welfare in Developing Countries: A Longitudinal and Experimental Approach”, which funded my PhD scholarship. In 2012, the project funded data collection in Rural Burundi. In respect to the experimental component of the project, these are baseline data. The 2012 household survey targeted a sample of rural households that have been interviewed in 1998 and 2007. This is where the longitudinal design of the project comes into play. Independently from the experimental research, the longitudinal nature of the data, that is to say three waves of data (1998, 2007 and 2012), had the advantage of allowing panel analysis of interesting and relevant issues in development, including for example the long-term welfare effects of shocks at either individual or household levels.In Chapter 1, entitled “The Power of The Family: kinship and Intra-household Decision-making in Rural Burundi” and co-authored with Bram De Rock and Philip Verwimp, we delve into the determinants of female's participation in household decision-making, by laying a particular emphasis on the role of female's kinship. We show that in rural Burundi the characteristics of the female's kinship are highly correlated with her decision-making power. First, a female whose own immediate family is at least as rich as her husband's counterpart enjoys a greater say over children- and asset-related decision-making. Second, the size, relative wealth and proximity of the extended family also matter. Third, kinship characteristics prove to be more important than (standard) individual and household characteristics. Finally, we also show that the female's say over asset-related decision-making is positively associated with males' education, more than with female's education per se. All these correlation patterns can inform policies aiming at empowering women or targeting children through women's empowerment.In Chapter 2, entitled “The Returns of I Do: Multifaceted Female Decision-making and Agricultural Yields in Tanzania?”, I use the third round of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey to investigate the effect of multifaceted female's empowerment in agriculture on agricultural yields. The classic approach in the empirical literature on gender gap in agriculture includes the gender of the plot's owner/manager as the covariate of interest and interprets the associated coefficient estimate as the gender gap in agricultural productivity. Unlike this classic approach in the analysis of productivity differentials, my approach lays emphasis on the overlapping and interaction effects of manifold aspects of female's empowerment in agriculture, including female plot's ownership, female plot's management and female output's control. I find significant productivity gaps, which the classic empirical approach does not bring out in the same context. As compared to plots (solely) owned, managed and controlled by male, (i) plots merely owned by female and (ii) those owned & managed (but not controlled) by female are less productive, but those owned, managed & controlled by female are not. Furthermore, the latter are the more productive among plots at least owned by female. All these productivity gaps are predominantly explained by the structural effect, that is differences in productivity returns to observable production factors. Our findings are robust along a number of dimensions and suggest that female's management and control rights are of prime importance. Therefore, female plot's owners should be entitled the rights to manage their plot and, subsequently and most importantly, the rights to control the (agricultural) output of their work, for their productivity to be enhanced and the gender gap in agriculture to be closed. In Chapter 3, entitled “Say On Income and Children's Outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria”, I delve into the effect of female bargaining power on child education and labor outcomes in Nigeria. Female bargaining power is proxied by “female say on labor income”, rather than by her income per se. This is motivated by the fact the female labor force participation might be low in some contexts, while control over income is by all means what matters the most. The empirical methodology accounts for a number of empirical issues, including endogeneity and sample selection issues of female say on labor income, the multi-equation and mixed process features of the child outcomes, as well as the fact that hours of work are left-censored. My findings are consistent with the overall idea that female say on income leads to better child outcomes, rather than female income earning per se. Nevertheless, the type of income under female control, child gender and child outcome matter. Chapter 4, entitled “Violence Exposure and Welfare Over Time: Evidence From The Burundi Civil War” and co-authored with Marion Mercier and Philip Verwimp, investigates the relationship between exposure to conflict and poverty dynamics over time. We use a three-wave panel data from Burundi, which tracked individuals and reported local-level violence exposure in 1998, 2007 and 2012. Firstly, the data reveal that headcount poverty has not changed since 1998 while we observe multiple transitions into and out of poverty. Moreover, households exposed to the war exhibit a lower level of welfare than non-exposed households, with the difference between the two groups predicted to remain significant at least until 2017, i.e. twelve years after the conflict termination. The correlation between violence exposure and deprivation over time is confirmed in a household-level panel setting. Secondly, our empirical investigation shows how violence exposure over different time spans interacts with households' subsequent welfare. Our analysis of the determinants of households' likelihood to switch poverty status (i.e. to fall into poverty or escape poverty) combined with quintile regressions suggest that, (i) exposure during the first phase of the conflict has affected the entire distribution, and (ii) exposure during the second phase of the conflict has mostly affected the upper tail of the distribution: initially non-poor households have a higher propensity to fall into poverty while initially poor households see their propensity to pull through only slightly decrease with recent exposure to violence. Although not directly testable with the data at hand, these results are consistent with the changing nature of violence in the course of the Burundi civil war, from relatively more labor-destructive to relatively more capital-destructive.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Master of Science
Department of Architecture
R. Todd Gabbard
In recent years urban planners have seen critical changes in the scales, pace, and trends of urbanization, resulting in suppressed urban patterns and the emergence of distinctive types of urban dynamics. A possible interpretation of this process is that it represents a “radical socio-spatial restructuring under the regime of global neoliberalization”, a phenomenon that is being widely discussed by many influential planners, urban geographers, and sociologists. My overarching research agenda is to develop a new analytical framework for comparative quantitative analyses of neoliberal urbanization pressures that cause the emergence of distinct patters of urban dynamics and morphologies. By comparing different experiences of ongoing urban transformations around the world and studying the mechanisms of their emergence, we can identify contemporary trends, monitor critical changes and shape a better future for our cities. Using China as a basis of comparison, my thesis seeks to challenge the unproductive and homogeneous patterns of urban dynamics that emerged during neoliberalization in Russia. The controversial and extremely heterogeneous model of Chinese urbanization cannot be applied universally, but valuable lessons can be derived. My work aims to explore specifics of two different patterns of neoliberal transitions in Moscow (Russia) and Shenzhen (China) in 1992 and 1978 respectively. By focusing on detailed scales of restructuring of urban settlement typologies I identify the characteristics of socio-spatial patterns prior to confronting the transition and its resulting outcomes. While considering potential context specific properties of East Asian urbanization, I am making an attempt to extrapolate this vernacular experience into generalized theory. Connecting and quantifying local and global dimensions of urban transformations helps me build a comprehensive theoretical and quantitative framework for a more profound understanding of ongoing socio-spatial restructuring.

Healthcare in developing countries is confronted with a shortage of skilled healthcare workforce, medical errors, inequity and inefficient healthcare service delivery. Innovative ways of solving healthcare problems through Information and communication technology (ICT) can improve the efficiency, effectiveness, access and quality of the healthcare system. Despite highly anticipated benefits of eHealth system to improve the efficiency of healthcare delivery, the healthcare had barely begun to take advantage of ICT mainly in a resource-constrained environment. The implementation of eHealth systems in developing countries could not proceed beyond the pilot phase to demonstrate sustainability in a large-scale rollout. The general research problem in this thesis focuses on how factors of eHealth implementation interplay to influence technology and information use to ensure the long-term sustainability of eHealth in resource-constrained settings. Systems thinking and system dynamics modelling method were used to handle complexity in the implementation of eHealth. Moreover, sustainability theory, technology acceptance model (TAM) and IS success models were used to develop a system dynamics model of sustainable eHealth implementation. The socio-technical, techno-organizational and techno-economic factors of sustainable eHealth systems are discussed to address the research objectives. The system dynamics simulation model of sustainable eHealth implementation is developed, verified, validated and tested. This applied research study focused on addressing the problems of sustainable eHealth systems implementation in resource-constrained environments. The model-based theory-building research study followed in this thesis aimed at enhancing the understanding of sustainable eHealth implementation in a resource-constrained environment to maximize the acceptance of eHealth by the end-users. Both the ontological and epistemological assumptions of this research study supported the position of the constructivist research paradigm. Methodologically, this study mainly applies qualitative research methodology which is common in the interpretive approach. Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were used to elicit information from purposefully sampled eHMIS and SmartCare health facilities in Ethiopia. Field notes, document review, interview and focus group discussion data were analysed using ATLAS.ti software. Vensim DSS Version 6.3D was used to model and simulate the system dynamics model. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach was followed in the systematic literature review of techno-economic factors. The simulation results confirmed that the ‘effectiveness of training’ was a dominant factor to improve the ‘acceptance rate’ of eHMIS and SmartCare in the socio-technical dimension of sustainable eHealth implementation. The adequacy of ICT and healthcare workforce within eHealth implementing facility and end-users’ familiarity with digital technology showed a stronger influence on the ‘acceptance rate’ of both eHMIS and SmartCare systems in the techno-organizational dimension. An economic incentive, funding duration, funding amount, funding source and economic benefit are identified as techno-economic factors that influence the long-term sustainability of eHealth projects.
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2019.
Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM)
PhD
Unrestricted

The Ceramic Neolithic (SCU) period in Cyprus is unusual because of the island-wide uniformity observable in the material culture remains. It is only in the ceramic repertoire that regional variation can be detected, and this is most clearly evident in the surface decoration on the painted pottery. Regional variation is common in prehistoric societies, where external elements can act upon social and economic structures and thereby contribute to diversity. In Cyprus, where there were no external influences, factors that contributed to diversity were internally circumscribed. The predominant forces acting upon SCU Cyprus were economic. Subsistence strategies governed the ways in which early populations conducted their daily lives and interacted with others. The undertaking of seasonally related subsistence tasks would have directed the types of interaction that occurred between village groups and regions. Looking specifically at the material culture of the SCU phase, and in particular the distribution of variation in the pottery, the socio-economic processes that contributed to regional diversity are defined. Ceramic variation in SCU Cyprus is predominantly stylistic, and style can appear in many guises. Moreover, it is stylistic variation that is the extant measurable element of social interaction. This thesis argues that economic factors directed the types of social interactive processes that occurred during the SCU phase, and that this is reflected as stylistic variation in the ceramics. Measuring variety against the backdrop of economic and subsistence models aids the identification of the types of relationships which existed.

Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(地域研究)
甲第11707号
地博第21号
新制||地||7(附属図書館)
23350
UT51-2005-D456
京都大学大学院ｱｼﾞｱ・ｱﾌﾘｶ地域研究研究科ｱﾌﾘｶ地域研究専攻
(主査)教授 太田 至, 教授 市川 光雄, 教授 島田 周平
学位規則第4条第1項該当

Currently, more than half of all Swedish single-family houses have an installed heat pump and more heat is supplied by heat pumps in Sweden than in any other nation. Despite the enormous impact of heat pumps on the Swedish energy system, the transition towards their use has gone relatively unnoticed. Hence the title of this thesis, ‘A silent revolution’. This thesis provides an in-depth study of the Swedish transition towards heat pumps and how Swedish industries contributed to it. It approaches the topic from the perspective of value networks and ‘coopetition’, combined with the concept of complementarities. This approach has been inspired by the work of Verna Allee (2009) and Erik Dahmén (1991). In this thesis, value networks are networks of actors surrounding a specific business model, coopetition is used to describe the relationships between actors (as both competitive and cooperative), and the concept of complementarities is used to analyze the dynamics between synergistic elements and value networks in Sweden’s heat pump sector and energy system. Based on this approach, the thesis explains how a durable web of relations and interdependencies between complementarities has developed within the heat pump sector and the energy system in Sweden, and between the two, during the country’s transition to widespread use of heat pumps. Interest in heat pumps arose in Sweden and other parts of Europe during the 1970s. The Swedish energy system had been caught between international oil crises and national political mobilisation against nuclear power expansion. In this period of negative transformation pressure, the heat pump appeared as a promising alternative that could mitigate the use of oil and electricity for heating. In the 1970s, an early Swedish heat pump industry formed together with a growing heat pump market. A large number of diverse actors became involved in the Swedish heat pump sector, and the intense coopetition dynamics relating to heat pumps following the 1970s oil crisis contributed to durable connections between complementarities during the early stages of the transition. The 1980s saw a rapid expansion of large heat pumps in Swedish district heating facilities. In the mid-1980s, however, oil prices dropped back to their previous low levels. This change, combined with other factors, such as lifted subsidies and higher interest rates, created a crisis for Swedish heat pump industry. The industry underwent a 10-year period of low sales of small heat pumps and the market for large heat pumps died out and never returned. Nevertheless, several connections between heat pump–related complementarities remained in Sweden after the mid-1980s. In conjunction with value network reconfigurations, changes in company ownerships and governmental industry support, these complementarities helped the Swedish heat pump sector to maintain both production and service capacity. Due to developments that took place largely outside the heat pump manufacturing sector, by the mid-1990s it became possible for the struggling Swedish industry to offer more reliable and standardised heat pumps to the Swedish home heating market. During the years after 1995, the Swedish heat pump market grew to become the biggest in Europe. The industry’s early development and growth gave Swedish companies a comparative advantage over its European competitors, with the result that the manufacturing of heat pumps remained concentrated to Swedish-based manufacturing facilities even after the Swedish heat pump industry became internationalised after 2005. As of 2015, Sweden had the greatest amount of heat production from heat pumps per capita of any European nation, and many heat pump markets in other European countries are 10 to 20 years behind the Swedish market in development. This thesis shows how the Swedish heat pump industry has co-evolved with the market and how developments in the industry contributed towards causing the transition to heat pumps to occur so early in Sweden relative to other European markets. It also shows that coopetition dynamics in a socio-technical transition change with the emergence and characteristics of structural tensions between complementarities, which has implications for the strategic management of external relations and partnerships during socio-technical transitions. It further argues that the combination of the value network, coopetition, and complementarity concepts can be conceptualised for descriptive and exploratory studies on the role of firms and industries in socio-technical transitions, thereby offering a complement to existing dominant frameworks in the area of transition studies.
För närvarande har mer än hälften av alla svenska husägare en installerad värmepump. Värmepumpar levererar mer värme per capita i Sverige än i något annat land. Men trots värmepumparnas stora genomslag i det svenska energisystemet har övergången från olja och el till värmepumpar gått relativt obemärkt förbi. Därav titeln på denna avhandling, ”en tyst revolution”. Denna avhandling ger en djupgående beskrivning av den svenska övergången från olja och el till värmepumpar och av hur den svenska industrin bidragit till utvecklingen inom det svenska värmepumps- området. Forskningsansatsen i denna avhandling bygger på ett värdenätverks- och ’coopetition’-perspektiv i kombination med användningen av det dynamiska analytiska begreppet komplementaritet. Denna ansats är inspirerad av Verna Allees (2009) och Erik Dahméns (1991) arbeten. Begreppet värdenätverk används i denna avhandling för att beskriva det nätverk av aktörer som omger en specifik affärsmodell, begreppet ’coopetition’ används för att beskriva relationerna mellan aktörer (som både konkurrerande och samarbetande) och begreppet komplementaritet används för att analysera dynamiken mellan synergistiska delar och värdenätverk i den svenska värmepumpsektorn och det svenska energisystemet. Genom detta tillvägagångssätt beskrivs hur ett hållbart nät av relationer och ömsesidiga beroenden mellan komplementariteter har utvecklats, dels inom själva värmepumps- sektorn, dels mellan värmepumpssektorn och energisystemet i Sverige, under den svenska övergången mot ökad användning av värmepumpar. Intresset för värmepumpar steg i både Europa och Sverige under 1970- talet. Det svenska energisystemet var under tryck från både internationella oljekriser och nationell politisk mobilisering mot svensk kärnkrafts-utbyggnad. Under denna period när det svenska energisystemet var under negativt omvandlingstryck framstod värmepumpen som ett lovande alternativ som skulle kunna minska användningen av både olja och el för uppvärmning i Sverige. På 1970- talet bildades en svensk värmepumpindustri i samband med en växande värmepumpsmarknad. Ett stort antal aktörer av olika typer engagerade sig i den växande svenska värmepumpsektorn under denna period. Den intensiva samarbetsdynamiken kring värmepumpar som följde oljekrisen från 1970-talet bidrog till bildandet av varaktiga kopplingar mellan komplementariteter under denna tidiga fas i värmepumpsövergången. Under tidigt 1980-tal steg den relativa försäljningen av villavärmepumpar kraftigt och under mitten av 1980- talet skedde en ännu kraftigare utveckling av stora värmepumpar i svenska fjärrvärmeanläggningar. Men i mitten av 1980-talet sjönk oljepriset tillbaka till sina tidigare låga nivåer. I kombination med andra faktorer, så som slopade subventioner och höjd ränta, uppstod en kris för värmepumpar i Sverige. Den följande 10-års perioden karakteriserades av låg försäljning av små värmepumpar. Marknaden för stora värmepumpar försvann helt och skulle aldrig återkomma. Men flera kopplingar mellan värmepumpsrelaterade komplementarier kvarstod i Sverige även efter mitten av 1980-talet. I kombination med värdenätverkskonfigurationer, förändringar i företagsägande och statligt stöd till industrin, bidrog dessa hållbara kopplingar mellan komplementarier till att upprätthålla både produktion och servicefunktioner inom den svenska värmepumpsektorn. På grund av den tekniska utvecklingen, som i stor utsträckning skedde utanför tillverkningssektorn, blev det i mitten av 1990-talet möjligt för den kämpande svenska värmepumpsindustrin att erbjuda mer pålitliga och standardiserade villavärmepumpar till den svenska hemmamarknaden. Under åren efter 1995 växte den svenska värmepumpmarknaden till att bli den största i Europa. Den svenska marknadens och industrins utveckling och tillväxt gav svenska företag en relativ fördel gentemot sina eftersläntrande europeiska konkurrenter, med följden att tillverkningen av värmepumpar förblev koncentrerad till svenska anläggningar även efter det att en stor del av svensk värmepumpsindustri blivit uppköpt av utländska företag efter 2005. År 2015 var Sverige fortfarande det land med mest värme från värmepumpar per capita i Europa och den svenska utvecklingen var 10- 20 år före andra europeiska värmepumpmarknader. Denna avhandling beskriver samutvecklingen mellan den svenska värmepumpssektorn och det svenska energisystemet och hur den industriella utvecklingen bidragit till att den svenska övergången till värmepumpar var relativt tidig i jämförelse med andra europeiska marknader. Avhandlingen visar också att aktörsdynamiken i en socio- teknisk övergång förändras med uppkomsten av strukturella spänningar mellan komplementariteter, vilket har betydelse för hur externa relationer och partnerskap hanteras av företag och organisationer som genomgår omfattande socio-tekniska övergångar. Vidare argumenteras för att begreppen värdenätverk, coopetition, och komplementariteter kan kombineras i ett konceptuellt ramverk för att beskriva och analysera företags och industriers roller i omfattande socio-tekniska övergångar och därigenom komplettera nuvarande dominerande konceptuella ramverk för studier av omfattande socio-tekniska övergångar.

QC 20171023

Most LDC regimes, especially those with a colonial past, suffer from a deficit in legitimacy. Basing their rule on the personality and achievements of one person, these regimes have failed to pass on their legitimacy to their successors, or sometimes even secure legitimacy for the state. They have drawn up a social contract with their populations that entailed obligations to achieve objectives such as industrialisation, national and economic independence, and welfare of their societies. In return, their populations were expected to support their regimes, and surrender their political rights and liberties. In this research, we focus on the social contract in Egypt, as an example of an LDC state where the regime has suffered from a lack of legitimacy since the country gained its independence in 1952. Over the last five decades, Egyptian regimes have forged a social contract with their populations in order to legitimise their rule. The social contract encompassed achieving objectives adopted by the regime on the domestic and international level according to their visions. The formula of the social contract has been modified by the regime in response to changes in domestic and international factors. One of the main obligations that the regime has committed itself to since 1952 has been welfare provision by the state. The commitment of the regime to provide welfare for the population has been an effective tool to generate legitimacy. Thus, the maintenance of a 'welfare state' has constituted a central component of the social contract since 1952. However, a social contract based on welfare provision has not been durable; this type of contract has secured the regime legitimacy only as long as it has been able to deliver welfare products. As industrialisation failed to take off, Egyptian regimes found it difficult to sustain the welfare state. Their attempts to withdraw from welfare provision, without compromising their legitimacy, have been unsuccessful. This is because the regime has marketed welfare provision by the state as a right of the public based on citizenship; the populace has proved resilient in defending this right. Hence, the regime had to rely upon aid and or external borrowing to postpone the crisis; and modify the social contract by introducing some measures of political liberalisation.

The thesis discusses the mediating role of socioeconomic factors in risk debates through an examination of the decontamination and demolition of Fulham Power Station in 1983-1984. The power station was built between the wars by and for the people of Fulham. Located on the Thames in the neighbourhood of Sands End, it generated electricity and provided employment until 1978, when it was sold to a property development company. During the decontamination, a quantity of asbestos was released into the environment. A protest group was formed to secure better standards of work at the site. The group never had more than a dozen active members. All the members were middle-class. At the time of the decontamination and demolition, Sands End was a poor neighbourhood. A majority of the local population faced many 'social' as well as environmental hazards. Amongst these were sub-standard housing, unemployment, under-employment, low wages, inadequate work and educational skills and crime. The thesis discusses whether the neighbourhood's socioeconomic problems had any bearing on the character and dynamics of the power station debate. It suggests that the social geography and economic status of Sands End had two major effects on the debate. Firstly, gentrification provided the neighbourhood with a (small) middle-class constituency receptive to issues of environmental risk, such as the long-term health implications of airborne asbestos dust. Secondly, the neighbourhood's pressing social and economic problems mitigated against a wider involvement in the campaign. Most residents were too preoccupied with meeting their social and economic needs to become actively involved. The thesis also suggests that the population's experience of Fulham Power Station as a source of 'convenient' electrical power, employment and civic pride may have made it difficult for those native to Sands End to accept the activists' construction of the power station as a source of danger.

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Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos
This study deals with the socio-spatial dynamics of the city of Limeira, seat of a municipality located in the eastern region of the state of São Paulo, seen primarily through the perspective of the reconstruction of material history registered in this urban nucleus during the 19th century. Research was carried out on the prior period, from 1799 when two Allotments were granted at the confluence of the Jaguari and Atibaia Rivers, the source of the Piracicaba River, and which would become, along with other land allotments, the municipal boundaries up until the final decade of that century. The study is thus based on the apprehension of the process of material evolution that marked the developing urbanization, perceived by the rediscovery of four variable factors which attended the establishment and development of the city: the formation and evolution of the transportation system, the installation and occupation of the urban street network, the location dimension of administrative edifications and the dynamic of urban equipment, both public and private. Research was made to identify how Limeira related to the national, state and regional contexts of that period, to describe the process of establishing towns near the geographical feature known as Morro Azul , or Blue Hill (where the present-day towns of Rio Claro, Araras and Piracicaba are also located), and, lastly, to understand significant social and historical facts related to physical expansion and to economic factors. The occupation of the land before the urban settlement was also dealt with, giving special attention in this process to the socio-spatial issues linked both to Allotments granted in the region and to the farms that were born out of those properties. Besides looking into pertinent scientific and technical literature available, direct documental sources were researched, found in collections of church documents in parishes and diocesan offices, in collections of public documents, in museums and libraries both public and private along with consultation and interpretation of historiographic bibliographies, as well as articles and laws, among others. The analyses which were elaborated show the materiality of space both as a result and as a basis for the evolution of social relationships and for the dominant class to stay in control, evidenced by forms of land appropriation and by the presence of a basis for the socio-spatial segregation found in the city in the next century, even though new configurations for the latter were adopted.
Este estudo aborda a dinâmica socioespacial da cidade de Limeira, sede de município situado na área leste do Estado de São Paulo, vista prioritariamente por meio da reconstrução da história material que gravou este núcleo urbano no século XIX. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida sobre o período anterior compreendido entre o ano de 1799 - data da concessão de duas Sesmarias na confluência dos rios Jaguarí e Atibaia, nascente do rio Piracicaba, e que viriam a compor em conjunto com outras datas de terras, os limites municipais - e o decênio final daquele século. O trabalho se pauta, deste modo, na apreensão do processo de evolução material, percebido por meio do resgate de quatro variáveis que assinalaram a implantação e o desenvolvimento da cidade: a formação e evolução do sistema viário, a instalação e ocupação da malha urbana, a dimensão locacional das edificações do poder administrativo e a dinâmica dos equipamentos urbanos, tanto comunitários quanto privados. Buscou-se ainda identificar a situação de Limeira nos contextos nacional, estadual e regional da época; os processos de instalação das urbes próximas à formação geográfica conhecida como Morro Azul (onde nos dias de hoje encontram-se também as cidades de Rio Claro, Araras e Piracicaba) e, por fim, os fatos históricos e sociais significativos relacionados à expansão física e aos fatores econômicos. Tratou-se também, da ocupação do território anterior à formação urbana, destacando-se neste processo as questões socioespaciais atreladas tanto às concessões de Sesmarias na região, quanto das fazendas oriundas daquelas possessões. Além da literatura técnico-científica pertinente, foram pesquisadas fontes documentais diretas, encontradas nos acervos paroquiais e diocesanos, arquivos públicos, museus, bibliotecas - tanto públicas quanto particulares - acrescidas da consulta e interpretação da bibliografia historiográfica, bem como de artigos, legislação, dentre outras. As análises elaboradas mostram a materialidade do espaço, ao mesmo tempo, como resultado e como base para a evolução das relações sociais e para a manutenção do poder da classe dominante, evidenciado nas formas de apropriação da terra e na presença, apesar da adoção de novas configurações, da base para a segregação socioespacial encontrada na cidade no século seguinte.

[Truncated abstract] The application of reductionism, breaking down problems to simpler components that can be solved and then aggregating the results, is one of the bases of classical science. However, living organisms, ecosystems, social and economic structures are complex systems, characterised by non-linear interactions between their elements and exhibit emergent properties that are not directly traceable to their components. Sustainability assessment frameworks oversimplify system interactions, achieving limited predictive capacity and causing managerial behavior that may reduce system's ability to adapt to external disturbance. Intrigued by the importance of complexity, we explore the central theme of how complex thinking can influence the understanding and progress towards sustainability. The purpose is to conceptualize the relationship of key terms (such as sustainability, functionality and resilience), and consecutively develop new or adjust existing sustainability frameworks to take into account complex systems interactions. We aim at developing theory and frameworks that can be used to raise awareness of the pitfalls of the growth paradigm and direct towards modest positions when managing complex systems. We seek to define the structural elements that influence system adaptive capacity, allowing identification of early signs of system rigidity or vulnerability and the development of knowledge and techniques that can improve our predictive and managerial ability. The focus has been on a variety of system scales and dynamics. At the collective community level, a number of stakeholder engagement practices and frameworks are currently available. However, there is limited awareness of the complexity challenges among stakeholders, who are commonly directed to a triple bottom line analysis aiming at maximizing a combination of outputs. An attempt is conducted to measure the functionality of the processes underlying a standing stock, in contrast to sustainability measures that only assess the variations of the standing stock itself. We develop the Index of Sustainable Functionality (ISF), a framework for the assessment of complex systems interactions within a large-scale geographic domain and apply it to the State of Western Australia. '...' Finally, we focus on smaller systems scales and develop a methodology for the calculation of Product Ecological Footprint (PEF) including elements from the accounting method of activity based costing. We calculate PEF for three apple production systems and identify significant differences from first stage calculations within the same industry. Cross-industry application will provide a practical way to link individuals' consumption with their ecological impact, reduce misperceptions of products' ecological impacts and develop a market-driven approach to internalizing environmental externalities. At the firm level PEF can be compared with investment costs, resulting in the opportunity to optimize both functions of financial cost and ecological impact in decision making. We have developed methods for incorporating complexity in sustainability assessment frameworks. Further work is required in testing and validating these methodologies at multiple system scales and conditions. Integrating such tools in decision making mechanisms will enhance long-term management of socioecological systems performance.

Les ressources naturelles sont au cœur de dynamiques contradictoires. Alors qu'elles sont essentielles à la reproduction des sociétés et du vivant, l'organisation actuelle de l'économie mondiale tend à les subordonner principalement à des logiques d'accumulation. Outre que ces dernières ne prennent pas suffisamment en compte les limites physiques au sein desquelles l'humanité évolue, elles entraînent à diverses échelles des inégalités problématiques sur les plans social et écologique. L'ordre économique international actuel tend en effet à générer des phénomènes d'échange écologique inégal qui nuisent au développement des pays producteurs et exportateurs de matières premières, ainsi qu'aux populations et écosystèmes les plus vulnérables en leur sein. Le monde tropical est exemplaire de telles contradictions, concentrant parmi les plus importantes ressources de la biosphère - notamment en matière de biodiversité - ainsi que des milieux socio-écologiques particulièrement fragilisés. Face à des visions et logiques économicistes d'exploitation des ressources, qui s'inscrivent dans la longue durée historique, et trouvent des relais dans les structures juridico-politiques du système économique mondial, il importe de repenser le concept même de ressource naturelle. Il s'agit en effet de redonner toute leur place aux dimensions sociales et écologiques dans les processus de gestion et d'exploitation des ressources. Cela implique une réflexion sur les valeurs qui guident les interactions avec la nature et les relations économiques internationales, afin que la solidarité, la complémentarité et la justice deviennent des priorités.

En s’appuyant sur une recherche intervention socio-économique longitudinale au sein d’une PME multi-activités et en réponse aux défaillances des pratiques stratégiques traditionnelles, cette recherche propose le concept de stratégie de différenciation dynamique. Ce dernier, issu d’une combinaison entre la stratégie socio-économique, la théorie des capacités dynamiques ainsi que la stratégie de différenciation, intègre la complexité de l’environnement et vise à répondre aux nouveaux défis stratégiques des entreprises. Pour ce faire, des pratiques stratégiques mobilisant les ressources de l’entreprise, et en particulier le potentiel humain, permettent d’intégrer une dynamique de changement performante. Cela est rendu possible notamment par un comportement stratégique proactif, articulant des choix délibérés avec d’autres émergents. Suite à une première proposition du concept, celui-ci est testé et enrichit grâce à une analyse approfondie de l’ensemble des pratiques stratégiques issues du terrain d’investigation. Le concept est ensuite discuté par rapport à la littérature et représenté par des pratiques précises. En dernier lieu, des recommandations managériales permettant la conduite d’une stratégie de différenciation dynamique sont proposées
Based on a socio-economic & longitudinal intervention-research carried on in a multi-activities SME and in response to the defaults of traditional strategic practices, this research suggests the concept of dynamic differentiation strategy. This later comes from the combination between socio-economic strategy, theory of dynamic capabilities and the differentiation strategy. It takes into account the complexity of the environment and is aimed to answer to the new strategic challenges of companies and organizations. To do so, strategic practices which are using and configuring the company’s resources, and especially the human potential, allow to integrate an effective dynamic of change. A proactive strategic behavior incorporating deliberated choices with some emerging ones make it possible. After suggesting first the concept, this one is tested and enriched with an analysis in depth of the field’s strategic practices. Then, we discuss the concept comparing it to the literature review and with more detailed practices. Finally, we suggest some management recommendations allowing the implementation of a dynamic differentiation strategy

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The national and international demand for ethanol has grown in recent years, due mainly to search for new energy sources and cheaper. In this context, Brazil has been increasing and is currently the largest producer of ethanol (from cane sugar) the world. In recent expansion of sugar cane, the state of Goiás is configured in an area favorable for growing cane, is the geoenvironmental characteristics and / or existing infrastructure and cheaper land, compared to southeastern Brazil. In some regions of São Paulo stand out in sugar cane production and sugar and alcohol projects implementation, the micro Ceres is the center of the Goiás region with increased production of cane sugar and quantity of plants in operation and in the process of implementation / registration, are eleven to total. These plants socio-economically streamline the region's economy moving, creating new jobs and bringing new relations between the enterprise and the residents, merchants / service providers and farmers (landowners). However, these complex developments in a series of negative effects such as seasonality in employment generation due to the inter-harvest period, the precariousness of work, especially related to cutting and manual harvesting of sugar cane, also found in plants as most of the micro-Ceres, the system of concessions, which often "force" the owner to lease their land for plants (as the production of sugarcane as a monoculture, it requires a large amount of land for cultivation, as plants have little land is necessary to lease land from other owners, putting together various properties, are small, medium and / or large), the owner if it is a small owner does not have much booty for the payment relates to the size of the land, in addition to expropriation and consequent rural exodus, which in this case is very common. This study aimed to contribute to the theme of expansion of the sugar industry and its dynamics and impacts associated, especially in the cities of Ceres microregion plants that have deployed, but realizing that this dynamic goes through the fronts of those municipalities, host plants, and end up involving municipalities neighbors, then tried to understand the issues proposed using the regional level. It is understood the relevance of this theme, considering the importance to continue this study to other regions and municipalities of Goiás, especially in this time of growing sugarcane for the state, as each place has its own dynamics and therefore different impacts could arise.
A demanda nacional e internacional por etanol cresceu muito nos últimos anos, devido principalmente a busca por novas fontes de energia renováveis e mais baratas. Neste contexto, o Brasil vem se destacando, sendo atualmente o maior produtor de etanol (de cana-de-açúcar) do mundo. Nessa recente expansão canavieira, o Estado de Goiás configura-se em área favorável ao cultivo de cana, seja pelas caracteristicas geoambientais e/ou infraestrutura existente e terras mais baratas, se comparado a região sudeste brasileira. Em Goiás algumas regiões se destacam na produção canavieira e implantação de empreendimentos sucroalcooleiros; a microrregião Ceres é a região do centro goiano com maior produção de cana-de-açúcar e quantidade de usinas em funcionamento e em processo de implantação/cadastro, são onze ao total. Essas usinas dinamizam sócio-economicamente essa região movimentando a economia, gerando novos empregos e trazendo novas relações entre o empreendimento e os moradores, os comerciantes/prestadores de serviço e produtores rurais (proprietários de terras). Contudo, esses complexos empreendimentos trazem uma série de impactos negativos, como a sazonalidade na geração de empregos, devido ao período da entressafra; a precarização do trabalho, sobretudo, relacionado ao corte e colheita manual da cana, ainda verificado como maioria nas usinas da microrregião Ceres; ao sistema de arrendamentos de terras, que muitas vezes força o proprietário a arrendar suas terras para as usinas (já que a produção canavieira, como uma monocultura, necessita de uma grande extensão de terras para o cultivo, como as usinas possuem poucas terras próprias é preciso arrendá-las de outros proprietários, aglutinando várias propriedades, sejam pequenas, médias e/ou grandes), o arrendador se for um pequeno proprietário não terá muitos ganhos, pois o pagamento está ligado ao tamanho das terras, além da expropriação e consequente êxodo rural, que nesse caso é muito comum. Este trabalho buscou contribuir com a temática de expansão do setor sucroalcooleiro e suas dinâmicas e impactos relacionados, principalmente, nos municípios da microrregião Ceres que possuem usinas implantadas, porém entendendo que esta dinâmica perpassa as fronterias desses municípios, sede das usinas, e acabam envolvendo municípios vizinhos, tentou-se então, compreender a problemática proposta utilizando-se do recorte regional. Entende-se a relevância dessa temática, considerando a importancia de continuar este estudo a outros municípios e regiões de Goiás, sobretudo, neste momento de expansão sucroalcooleira para o Estado, já que cada lugar possui sua própria dinâmica e consequentemente diferentes impactos poderão surgir.

abstract: The dissertation addresses questions tied in to the challenges posed by the impact of environmental factors on the nonlinear dynamics of social upward mobility. The proportion of educated individuals from various socio-economic backgrounds is used as a proxy for the environmental impact on the status quo state. Chapter 1 carries out a review of the mobility models found in the literature and sets the economic context of this dissertation. Chapter 2 explores a simple model that considers poor and rich classes and the impact that educational success may have on altering mobility patterns. The role of the environment is modeled through the use of a modified version of the invasion/extinction model of Richard Levins. Chapter 3 expands the socio-economic classes to include a large middle class to study the role of social mobility in the presence of higher heterogeneity. Chapter 4 includes demographic growth and explores what would be the time scales needed to accelerate mobility. The dissertation asked how long it will take to increase by 22% the proportion of educated from the poor classes under demographic versus non-demographic growth conditions. Chapter 5 summarizes results and includes a discussion of results. It also explores ways of modeling the influence of nonlinear dynamics of mobility, via exogenous factors. Finally, Chapter 6 presents economic perspectives about the role of environmental influence on college success. The framework can be used to incorporate the impact of economic factors and social changes, such as unemployment, or gap between the haves and have nots. The dissertation shows that peer influence (poor influencing the poor) has a larger effect than class influence (rich influencing the poor). Additionally, more heterogeneity may ease mobility of groups but results depend on initial conditions. Finally, average well-being of the community and income disparities may improve over time. Finally, population growth may extend time scales needed to achieve a specific goal of educated poor.
Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Applied Mathematics for the Life and Social Sciences 2020

博士
國立臺北大學
都市計劃研究所
96
The concept of socio-economic metabolism can provide a useful framework for both natural and social scientists to study the interrelations between human societies and their natural environments. Resources consumption, assets accumulation, and waste emission of socio-economic metabolism are involved with complex processes of land-use change. However, current researches focus on macroscopic comparison of socio-economic metabolism for different countries and regions from accounting approaches. Therefore, the International Human Dimension Programme (IHDP) and Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) list researches on socio-economic metabolism and land-use change as core projects, and suggest the relationship between land-use change and socio-economic metabolism must be analyzed using a more dynamic and spatial approach. This article overcomes methodological disadvantages of spatial system simulation and proposes a procedure for developing spatial system models. Socio-Economic Metabolism and Land-Use Change (SEMLUC) model, based on the procedure and biophysical approach, was developed via Model Builder in ArcGIS to investigate spatial patterns and spatial interaction hypotheses of socio-economic metabolism and land-use change for Metropolitan Taipei in this research. SEMLUC is a raster-based model and divided into 9,827 cells (cell size, 500x500 m2). Simulation results illustrated that spatial patterns of land use are the results of assets competition between natural, agricultural, and urban subsystems. In addition, urban assets have the characteristics of spatial convergence and diffusion, which are driven by the maximum power principle and carrying capacity of assets accumulation. The spatial diffusion process of urban assets triggers off land-use change. Moreover, spatial patterns of land-use change dominate the spatial distribution of non-renewable material and goods inflows. Based on the spatial pattern analyses, the spatial interaction hypotheses of socio-economic metabolism and land-use change are proposed in this research. These hypotheses can be bases for developing interaction theories between land-use change and socio-economic metabolism. Furthermore, impacts of global climate change on spatial patterns of socio-economic metabolism and land-use change will be important issues in the future.

Understanding soil fertility issues in the Middle Mountains of Nepal requires interdisciplinary research, integrating biophysical and socio-economic factors. Soil degradation is associated with a wide range of human activities, natural processes, and the wider economic, political and social aspects of their setting. This study focuses on a in the Middle Mountains and addresses four research questions: What is the current soil fertility status? How is it changing? Why is it changing? and What are the implications for production, sustainability and management? Soil surveys, plot studies, nutrient balance modelling, household questionnaires and GIS mapping techniques are used to address these questions. The overall soil fertility conditions of the study area are poor and appear to be declining under most land uses. Soil pH averages 4.8 ± 0.4 and is below desirable levels for crop production. Soil carbon (0.99 ± 0.5 %) and cation exchange capacity (10.8 ± 4.1 cmol kg⁻¹) are low, and available phosphorus (16.6 ± 18.9 mg kg⁻¹) is a concern given the low pH. Land use is the most important factor influencing soil fertility with khet (irrigated agriculture) showing the best fertility status (pH 5.2, Ca 5.3 cmol kg⁻¹ and available P 21.6 mg kg⁻¹), followed by bari, and grassland, with forest soil fertility being the poorest (pH 4.2, Ca 0.9 cmol kg⁻¹ and available P 0.7 mg kg⁻¹). Soil type is the second most important factor influencing soil fertility, with red soils displaying significantly lower available P than non-red soils (9.8 versus 22.1 mg kg⁻¹). Phosphorus sorption studies indicate the high P fixation capacity of red soils, 1.2 g kg⁻¹ compared to 0.3 g kg⁻¹ calculated for non-red soils. Extrapolation from site specific data to a spatial coverage using statistical analysis and GIS techniques indicates that only 14% of the classified areas have adequate pH, available P and exchangeable Ca, and 29% of the area has a high P fixation capacity (>1.5 g kg⁻¹). Nutrient balance modelling provides estimates of nutrient depletion from the soil pool and raises concerns about the sustainability of upland farming, intensive vegetable crop production and forest nutrient cycling. Dryland maize production results in deficits of 188 kg N, 38 kg P205 and 21 kg Ca per ha furrow slice Rice-wheat cultivation on irrigated land appears to have limited impact on the soil nutrient pool, but the addition of premonsoon maize to the rotation results in deficits of 106 kg N and 12 kg P₂O₅ per ha furrow slice. Rates of soil fertility depletion estimated from differences in soil fertility between land uses indicate substantial N and Ca losses from forest land (94 and 57 kg ha per furrow slice respectively). Land use change, the impact on nutrient flows and relationships between nutrient inputs, crop uptake, nutrient balances and soil fertility provide an understanding of why soil fertility is changing. Historical forest cover data indicates substantial deforestation during the 1950-1960 period, a subsequent reversal in the 1972-1990 period associated with afforestation efforts, and renewed losses in the 1990s. Forest soils receive minimal nutrient inputs and large biomass removal results in a low soil fertility status. Expansion and marginalization of dryland agriculture were noted from 1972-1990, as former grazing, shrub and abandoned lands were terraced and cultivated. Nutrient fluxes indicate that inputs are insufficient to maintain the soil nutrient pool under dryland cultivation due to the high nutrient requirements of maize and nutrient losses through erosion. Nutrient balances for maize and wheat are positively correlated with nutrient inputs but relationships with soil fertility are weak. On irrigated khet lands, cropping has intensified and cash crop production has prompted the use of agrochemicals. Excess fertilization is leading to eutrophication and the high use of agrochemicals is a health concern. Nutrient fluxes on khet fields appear to be sustainable due to the addition of nutrients through irrigation and sediment trapping, but may be insufficient to maintain triple cropping. Grass and shrub land dynamics are characterized by minimal inputs and low productivity. The traditional farming system appears to have been sustainable, but triple cropping and increased vegetable production are threatening sustainability. The transfer of nutrients within the fanriing system is unbalanced. Under intensive production, nutrients on khet land are being depleted, poor farmers are shifting their limited compost inputs from bari to khet fields, and biomass collected from forests, disrupts the natural nutrient cycle. Population growth, land tenure, culture and poverty are the underlying socio-economic factors which influence farming system dynamics, directly impact nutrient inputs, and indirectly drive soil fertility degradation. Population growth rates of 2.6% have contributed to agricultural intensification and marginalization, and pressure on forest resources. The distribution of land is highly skewed with 15% of the surveyed households owning 46% of the land. Women play a central role in soil fertility management through their responsibilities for livestock care, litter collection and compost application, but increasing workloads related to commercial milk production, cash cropping and the off-farm employment of males are a major concern. Agricultural assets, farm gross margins, market oriented production, commercial milk production and off-farm employment provide indicators of economic well-being and are positively correlated with nutrient inputs. Total returns and gross margins are greatest for households growing vegetable crops as part of their rotation, and these households apply significantly more compost and fertilizer to both khet and bari land. Access to land is a key factor driving nutrient management and influencing economic well-being. Land is the main agricultural asset in the study area, khet land is the most productive and khet provides the greatest opportunity of cash crop production. However, given the increased labour demands for triple cropping, vegetable production and commercial milk production, the social sustainability is being threatened. Some 47% of the households were not able to fulfil their basic need requirements from the land they farm. They will have no alternative but to exhaust the capital stock of soil nutrients rather than investing in soil fertility. Maintenance of soil fertility is essential to meet the basic food and resource needs of the growing population. Organic matter management is critical, supplying macro- and micro nutrients, reducing acidification, maintaining soil structure and enhancing microbial activity. Water management and sediment trapping on lowland fields provide additional nutrients on khet land; soil acidity on upland fields and forest land needs to be better managed given the increased fertilizer use on bari and high biomass removal from forests; and the incorporation of N fixing species into agricultural production systems are an option which may provide additional animal fodder and help sustain soil fertility.

Like many other cities Memphis has been hit hard by the economic downturn, but unlike other cities there are several other factors which cause the existing conditions in Memphis to be even more devastating. Memphis is one of the largest majority minority cities in the country with high rates of unemployment and, extremely high rates of crime. Foreclosures have ravaged the housing stock, graduation rates are far below the state goal, there are huge disparities in income and HIV/AIDS is on the rise at alarming rates. In Memphis, these factors combine to exacerbate the existing desert of opportunity that reproduces patterns of desolation, segregation, and social and economic disparities. This report aims to investigate the socio-economic dynamics of those areas most affected by inequality in an effort to understand the correlation between various factors, identify trends within those areas and assess how the interaction of various components could have potentially detrimental effects on the overall community.
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Conservation in the EU and all over the world aims at reducing biodiversity loss which has become a great issue in the last decades. However, despite existing efforts, Earth is assumed to face a sixth mass extinction. One major challenge for conservation is to reconcile the targets with conflicting interests, e.g. for food production in intensively used agricultural landscapes. Agriculture is an example of a coupled human-environment system that is approached in this thesis with the help of mathematical models from two directions. Firstly, the ecological subsystem is considered to find processes relevant for the effect of habitat connectivity on population abundances. Modelling theory predicts that the species-specific growth parameters (intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity) indicate whether dispersal has a positive or negative effect on the total population size at equilibrium (r-K relationship). We use laboratory experiments in combination with a system of ordinary differential equations and deliver the first empirical evidence for a negative effect of dispersal on the population size in line with this theory. The result is of particular relevance for the design of dispersal corridors or stepping stones which are meant to increase connectivity between habitats. These measures might not be effective for biological conservation. A second population model, consisting of two coupled Ricker maps with a mate-finding Allee effect, is analyzed in order to examine the effect of bistability due to the Allee effect in combination with overcompensation in a spatial system. The interplay can cause complex population dynamics including multiple coexisting attractors, long transients and sudden population collapses. Essential extinction teaches us that not only small populations are prone to extinction but chaotic dynamics can drive a population extinct in a short period of time as well. By a comprehensive model analysis, we find that dispersal can prevent essential extinction of a population. In the context of conservation that is: habitat connectivity can promote rescue effects to save a population that exhibits an Allee effect. The two findings of the first part of this thesis have contrasting implications for conservation which shows that universal recommendations regarding habitat connectivity are impossible without knowledge of the specific system. Secondly, a model for the socio-economic subsystem is presented. Agri-environment schemes (AES) are payments that compensate farmers for forgone profits on the condition that they improve the ecological state of the agricultural system. However, classical economic models that describe the cost-effectiveness of AES often do not take the social network of farmers into account. Numerical simulations of the socio-economic model presented in this thesis suggest that social norms can hinder farmers from scheme participation. Moreover, social norms lead to multistability in farmers’ land-use decision behaviour. Informational campaigns potentially decrease the threshold towards more long-term scheme participation and might be a good tool to complement compensation payments if social norms affect land-use decisions. Finally, a coupled human-environment system is analyzed. An integrated economicecological model is studied to investigate the cost-effectiveness of AES if the species of concern exhibits an Allee effect. A numerical model analysis indicates large trade-offs between agricultural production and persistence probability. Moreover, conservation success strongly depends on the initial population size, meaning that conservation is well advised to start before the species is threatened. Spatial aggregation of habitat can promote rescue effects, suggesting land-sparing solutions for conservation. In that case,agglomeration bonuses may serve to increase the effectiveness of AES. Possible causes for population declines are diverse and can be a combination of human influences, e.g. due to habitat degradation and inherent ecosystem properties. That complicates the task of conservation. The models presented in this thesis simplify complex systems in order to extract processes relevant for biological conservation. The analysis of spatial effects and dynamical model complexity, e.g. due to Allee effects or a nonlinear utility function, allows us improve the understanding of coupled human-environment systems.

This thesis investigates the potential and emerging roles of the Social Economy at the level of global governance by examining how transnational civil society (TCS) has organized in an attempt to influence global policy-making. One of this study’s principal aims is to glean insights into the dynamics of civil society coalitions, gaining a better understanding of how they combine the collective knowledge, resources and strengths of members and drawing out some of the “best practices” and challenges inherent in past civil society alliances. This study seeks to explore the complex nature of the relationships that exist among civil society actors and the unique challenges such groups face in forming partnerships by examining these relationships through the lens of Inter-Group Conflict Theory. A Case Study of one TCS partnership, the Make Poverty History (MPH) campaign, is conducted and an Inter-Group Dispute Resolution Analysis of MPH is carried out.

碩士
國立暨南國際大學
經濟學系
91
Three years after the 921 earthquake, it is believed that substantial portion of re-construction has been done, to what extent the re-construction has been accomplished, however, is still controversial. Updated and detailed housing-rebuilt statistics is the fundamental to understand the success of housing reconstruction after the quake. Nevertheless, neither official nor private data are sophisticated and sufficient enough for the need of detailed analyses, and there exists large discrepancy between various sources of datasets. There are three purposes of this study. First, we depict the dynamics of Emergency Housing Repair Loans with Favored Interest Rate offered by the Central Bank in detail. Second, we describe the changes of socio-economic and socio-demographic phenomenon before and after the quake in the quake-hit area. Third, we use the survey data of quake victims and employ regression analysis to discuss the determinant on the ability of housing reconstruction. There are five major findings in this study. First, after-quake Emergency Loan does satisfy the victims’ need to repair residential housing. Second, the upper-limit of housing repair loans is far above the victims’ needs. Third, the application of home repair loans was increasing rapidly in the period of 6 to 18 months after the quake. Fourth, the changes of related socio-economic and socio-demographic phenomenon of quake area should have deserved more attentions than it is, and we find that the economic situation of quake victims shows serious downturn. It implies that the economic rebuilt and living reconstruction are the priority after the housing reconstruction. Finally, the result of regression analysis depicts that “financial problem”plays the crucial role in determining the victims’ ability for housing reconstruction.

Cheng, Brian Hugh.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references.
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstracts also in Chinese.