Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'SOCIOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHY'

In this dissertation, we propose the Tangent Vector Field (TVF) model for Japanese mortality projection, which is an extended Linear Difference (LD) model, and show its applications.

In the two chapters following the introduction, we describe the mortality trends in Japan and review the mortality projection models for Japan.

Then, in the following two chapters, we describe the data and methods for the mortality models, show the results of fitting, and discuss them with special emphasis on the LD model. We describe the mathematical formulations for decline-type and shift-type models, and discuss the inverse function of log mortality and differential forms of mortality models. We discuss five models: two decline-type models (the Proportional Hazard (PH) and Lee-Carter (LC) models), and three shift-type models (the Horizontal Shifting (HS), Horizontal Lee-Carter (HL), and LD models). In particular, we compare the LC and LD models from a statistical viewpoint. The result guides better construction of a mortality projection model, namely, a blended model with LC properties in youth and LD properties in older age.

In the last chapter, we propose the TVF model applying the idea of tangent vector fields on the log mortality surface. We show a fully specified example of the projection procedure of the TVF model with all constants and coefficients applied for Japanese mortality projection. Then, we compare the TVF and LC models' results of mortality projection. From the observation of the relative mortality rates, we see that the LC model expresses mortality improvement only in a vertical direction, whereas the TVF model succeeds in expressing a shifting of mortality improvement in the direction of older ages that are observed in the actual mortality. In addition, we compare the projected m_x curves. The m_x by the LC model exhibits an unnatural pattern because the slope of the curve diminishes once around the age of 60 years and becomes much steeper after 80 years. The curve of the TVF model is more plausible. As a whole, we observe that the TVF model has many advantages for Japanese mortality projection compared with the LC model.

We show that the TVF model proposed in this dissertation is not only quite useful for Japanese mortality projection but also has various applicability. At this point in time, there may be few countries with such strong shifting features for old age mortality as Japan. However, some countries are likely to experience the same mortality situation as Japan in the future through the extension of life expectancy. Thus, the TVF model will be a useful tool for projections in such situations.

This study addressed the frequently discussed issue of a relationship between the demographic diversity of a workgroup and its performance, by empirically testing for a relationship between a complex conceptualization of diversity (demographic faultlines) and workgroup performance bifurcated into processes, specifically relationship and task conflict, and outcomes, in terms of groups member's individual satisfaction with the group, commitment to the group, liking of other group members, and intent to stay. In addition, it hypothesized processes (relationship and task conflict) as mediators of outcomes. An online survey was administered at a single firm, ultimately gathering data from a sample population of 95 workgroups, representing 389 individual members. Using hierarchical regression analysis, the strength of the demographic faultline (Fau) of each group was tested for a relationship with relationship and task conflict and workgroup outcomes. Controlling for group size, the study found Fau positively predictive of relationship and task conflict, and not predictive of workgroup performance outcomes (given the finding of no relationship between Fau and outcomes, relationship and task conflict as mediators of outcomes was not tested), confirming only one of five hypotheses. The possible impact of the sample characteristics on this field study was discussed in conjunction with the theoretical, research, and practical implications of the findings.

Actualmente, Puerto Rico está atravesando la transición demográfica, lo que provoca que la población envejecida esté aumentando. Este reto es debido a la reducción en las tasas de natalidad, las altas tasas de migración, las tasas de mortalidad; el mismo tiene diversas implicaciones sociales. La religión, como elemento pro-social, sirve como herramienta para lidiar con los diversos desafíos que atraviesan los adultos mayores; demostrando una influencia positiva en la vida y en la salud de estos individuos. No obstante, la religión como factor en las investigaciones demográficas, no ha sido estudiada en Puerto Rico.

Por consiguiente, existe una necesidad de proveer información sobre las características sociodemográficas de las personas de 60 años o más por grupo religioso, sus características religiosas, sus redes de apoyo y su estado de salud, ya que estas variables influyen en la vida del envejecido. Se utilizó un estudio descriptivo, trabajando con la base de datos “Condiciones de Salud de los Adultos de Edad Mayor en Puerto Rico: 2002-2003” (conocido por sus siglas en inglés, PREHCO). Los resultados y discusión de este trabajo, les proveerán a los lectores un mejor marco para estudiar la influencia de la religión en estos individuos. Además, se espera que esta investigación despierte el interés de profesionales de la salud y líderes religiosos, para así poder realizar distintos planes de acción o políticas públicas para trabajar con esta población vulnerable.

This dissertation is dedicated to an exploration of "Wood's Method" -- a novel approach to fitting demographic transition matrices to age and sex population count data. Demographic transition matrices, otherwise known as "Leslie matrices," are extensively used to forecast population by age, sex, and other characteristics. Our implementation of Wood's Method simplifies the creation of age and sex population forecasts greatly by reducing the amount of data necessary to create a demographic transition matrix. Furthermore, the method can be used to infer a demographic component of change (one of migration, fertility, or mortality) if the other two components are specified.

In Chapter One, we introduce Wood's Method, as well as showing some illustrative examples. In Chapter Two, we evaluate the accuracy of Wood's Method by crossvalidating age and sex specific forecasts for 3,120 US counties. In Chapter Three, we present a simpler, alternative derivation of Wood's Method with an extensive example and show some extensions to the method made possible by this new formulation. In Chapter Four, we use the method to examine migration rates at the US County level and show important results regarding clustering of migration. Each chapters is independent of the others, but should be read in order.

To our knowledge, this is the first time Wood's Method has been used for forecasting human populations. We hope to show its viability as a forecasting and analysis method and sketch directions for further research.

The massive migration of rural labor to urban areas in China over the past few decades has created the largest labor flow in world history. The proportion of the residential population in rural areas decreased from 80% in the late 1970s to 44% in 2016. Due to institutional and practical constraints, whole family migration is often not feasible for most migrant families. As a result, 61 million children age 0-17 are estimated to be left behind in rural communities by at least one parent seeking employment elsewhere. These numbers reflect a major change in the family and community environment in which children are cared for. Parental migration brings about changes in family structure and dynamics, entails a trade-off between economic benefits and parenting inputs, such as parental supervision and emotional support. At community-level, large-scale selective migration leads to remarkable changes in community demographic composition, shifting sociocultural norms and aspirations, influencing community institutional resources and collective social capital.

Over the past few decades, the scientific literature examining the implications of this large-scale migration and split families on the well-being of children left-behind has proliferated. However, empirical evidence on the effect of parental migration on left-behind children’s well-being is mixed for China and other countries in the context of international migration. Few studies have attempted to reconcile the inconsistent findings by examining the moderator effect. Although the potential effects of migration on cognitive development of children in origin communities reflect both household- and community-level processes, few studies have examined how community-level migration affects child development. In addition, mostly focused on the well-being of school-aged children, very limited study has been conducted on parental migration and early childhood development in the first few years of children’s lives, especially in the domain of cognitive and behavioral outcomes. Moreover, most researches have relied on cross-sectional data, exploring the association between a contemporaneous measure of parental migration and statically measured child outcomes at one point in time, ignoring the potential impact of the timing, transition and cumulative exposure to parental migration/absence, and may also be prone to selection bias.

To bridge the gap, the first analysis examines the conditions that may influence the effect of parental migration on child self-rated health (SRH). The results suggest a relatively weak main effect, but this is due in part to the influence of moderating factors. Children are more likely to report a good health status when the economic return of migration is substantial, if they are from impoverished communities, or when mothers remained at home to provide care while the father migrated a short distance within the same province. The second analysis focuses on examining community migration effect. Findings suggest lower cognitive achievement in communities experiencing high migration intensity. Children living in very high migration intensity areas are expected to have 3.57- and 1.54-unit lower verbal and math scores, which are equivalent to 1.67 and 0.87 years of formal education respectively. A possible explanation for this effect is the change in demographic composition brought about by the outmigration of better-educated adults. Finally, applying growth curve modeling strategy, the third analysis examines parental migration and early childhood development trajectories and states, taking into account timing, transition and cumulative exposure to parental migration. Our findings indicate that while left-behind children are comparable in the prevalence of childhood illness, positive behaviors and preschool enrollment, two-parent migration has a detrimental effect on children’s linear growth, cognitive stimulation, and home environment. Lack of appropriate cognitive stimulation in the critical early years could have important implications for child cognitive development.

Measuring spouses’ ages allows us to explore larger sociological issues about marriage, such as whether narrowing gaps signal gender progress or if a rise in female-older unions reveals a status change. Using Census and American Community Survey data, I test the merits of beauty-exchange and status homogamy theories as explanations for how heterosexual marital age gaps changed over a 40-year period of social and economic revolution. Analyses address questions about how age gaps compared for people with different characteristics, whether similarly aged couples exhibited greater educational and socio-economic homogamy than others, and if the odds of being in age-heterogamous marriages changed.

Chapter 4 provides the historical context of U.S. marriages from 1910 on, and shows that while disadvantaged groups retreated from marriage, the percentage of individuals with greater education and income who married remained high. Age homogamy rose over 100 years due to a decline in marriages involving much-older husbands rather than increases in wife-older unions.

Results in Chapter 5 show that mean age gaps decreased significantly over time for first-married individuals by most—but not all—characteristics. Gaps narrowed for those who were White, Black, other race, or of Hispanic origin; from any age group; with zero, one, or two wage earners; with any level of education; and from most types of interracial pairs. One exception was that mean age gaps increased between Asian wives and White husbands, and Asian women’s odds of having a much older husband were higher than the odds for racially homogamous women. Those odds increased over time.

Findings lent support for status homogamy theory, since same-age couples showed greater educational homogamy than others in any decade, but showed mixed support for beauty exchange. In 2010–14, the median spousal earnings gap was wider in husband-older marriages than age-homogamous ones; however, the reverse was true in 1980. Women-older first or remarriages exhibited the smallest median earnings gaps in 1980 and 2010–14, and women in these marriages contributed a greater percentage of the family income than other women in 2010–14 (43.6% vs 36.9%, respectively).

The odds of being in age-heterogamous unions were significantly higher for persons who were remarried, from older age groups, from certain racial backgrounds, in some interracial marriages, less educated, and from lower SES backgrounds. Age and remarriage showed the greatest impact on odds ratios. While age homogamy increased overall, the odds of being a much older spouse (11+ years older) increased dramatically for remarried men and women between 1970 and 1980, and then remained high in 2010–14. Remarried women’s odds of being the much older wife versus a same-age spouse were 20.7 times that of the odds of first-married women in 2010–14. Other results showed that Black men’s odds of being with a much-older wife compared to one around the same age were about 2.5 times that of the odds of White men in each decade. Hispanic men’s odds of being in a first marriage with a much-older wife versus one of the same age were also twice the odds of White men in 1980 and 2010–14.

Analyses demonstrated that marital age gaps have, indeed, changed significantly since the second-wave women’s movement, and that while age homogamy increased, the odds of being age heterogamous also shifted for people with different characteristics.

Objective: The focus of this study is a broad examination of household energy consumption for appliance use, space heating, space cooling, and water heating in United States over the period 2001-2009 using Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) from the years 2001 and 2009. Methods: Linear Regression Analysis is used to identfy determinants of household energy consumption for each of the end uses. Regression based decomposition analysis is used to identify trends in residential energy consumption for each of the end uses. Results: The study identified current determinants of household energy consumption for each of the end uses. These determinants are employed in the study to predict trends in household energy consumption for each of the end uses. Based on the results policy interventions at local and federal level for energy conservation are suggested.

This study examined the use of technology-based training and development within expatriate populations after the 2008 global recession. A quantitative survey design was used to collect data. The study results were shared with a live, face-to-face group forum of training and development practitioners. A total of 46 participants answered the survey. Findings related to participant demographic data as well as their perceptions regarding the impacts of the 2008 recession, training timing and topics, and training methods were reported. The study findings indicated that the 2008 global recession did not have a strong impact on these participants. They also tended to receive training after they arrived onsite. Technology-based training was not viewed as highly effective by expatriates. Rather, it is traditional instructor-led classroom training that best prepared American expatriates for their work assignment abroad, second to blended learning of classroom and technology training.

The purpose of this project is to explore whether regionalism —specifically southern distinctiveness— persists in the contemporary US. While this was a popular area of study prior to and through the 1980s, the topic of regionalism has largely disappeared from the contemporary sociological landscape with only a handful of exceptions. The present study uses pooled data from the NORC General Social Surveys to explore the persistence and/or change of white southern distinctiveness by examining attitudes toward African American inequality, the role of government in helping the poor, homosexuality and civic tolerance.

The paper first discusses theoretical causes for declining southern distinctiveness. These potential causes are largely guided by Durkheim's Division of Labor. Briefly, as society advances, increased interdependence on others from different backgrounds along with increased mobility challenges the value of regional culture and attitudes. In this environment, holding onto regional culture may hinder full and effective participation in society therefore leading to a decline in southern distinctiveness. In spite of this, there are a number of tools which may work to maintain regional differences. Namely, the southern culture, with an "insularity of mind", cultural carriers like religion and family, may all work together to maintain that characteristics that make the southern region stand out. The paper also considers how cohort and period effects may vary in influence by region thus working to potentially challenge and maintain regional distinctiveness.

The study uses the cumulative 1972-2012 GSS dataset in the exploration of how the American south has or has not remained distinct. Estimating appropriate regression models, differences between southerners and nonsoutherners are explored. Also recognizing the potential influence of migration in or out of a South the study also considers how residents new to the South and Nonsouth differ from native nonsoutherners. This permits the opportunity to see whether or not and to what degree early socialization matters. Additionally, the models also consider cohort and year effects in order to better demonstrate the nuance of regional distinctiveness and its change over time.

The findings indicate a number of valuable outcomes which will be discussed in detail. First, the results of all of the models suggest that region still matters. In short, even when controlling for various effects, southerners continue to indicate more socially conservative attitudes than nonsoutherners. Additionally, contact with the South, be it as a child or as an adult, is also associated with indicating attitudes that are more congruent with native southerners than native nonsoutherners.

The findings show that the effects of migration on social attitudes are nuanced and may vary depending upon the social attitude being examined. Last, the result from the study show that in spite of continued regional distinctiveness, there is some evidence that southern and nonsouthern attitudes on a number of social issues may be slowly converging. Though far from the rapid convergence some may have proposed two decades ago, this is slow and with its own qualifications.

Using longitudinal data from Panel Study of Income and Dynamic (PSID) and multivariate analyses, this dissertation examines the dynamic and longitudinal relationship between gender, occupational career and health among people of working age under the new economy. The major concern is whether there are gender differences in the health returns to occupation/employment resources across life course, whether the gendered health gap diverges with age, and whether health affect men' and women's employment transitions and occupational mobility differently.

Results show that women experience significantly poorer health than men, but this health gap reduces with aging. The health disadvantages experienced by women are entirely explained by SES status. Working becomes increasingly important to maintain health as people age. However, women receive far fewer health rewards from employment than men, and this unequal health returns to employment are compounded with age. The health benefit from a higher occupational status is similar for men and women across the life course. More importantly, all else being equal, health of women declines at a rate half that of men, showing a reversed gender health gap toward old age. Regarding health selection, results show that health is not a predictor of occupational status for either men or women, but is an important predictor for employment status and downward mobility of both genders.

From a theoretical standpoint, this research illustrates the limitation of using one dominate life course theory, and calls for a more prominent theory that examine both biological and social processes that contribute to the life course gender health inequality. Methodologically, results suggest the superiority of combining longitudinal designs with hierarchical longitudinal models, which are able entangle the within-person health change and between-person effects of time. From a policy standpoint, the study suggests that family-friendly policies should be able to improve both women's employment and, by extension, their health status.

Since the mid 60’s, Germany has seen dropping fertility rates and yet next to nothinghas been done to combat this trend until the current regime led by Angela Merkel andher minister of family affairs, Ursula von der Leyen initiated a number ofcomprehensive reforms of Germany’s family policies.Family policy in Germany is being reformed in three ways. First of all parents arenow eligible to receive substantial financial support in order to compensate the loss ofincome associated with a pregnancy and or parental leave. Second, the all but nonexistentpublic child care services are being vastly expanded with the goal of beingable to offer child care service for every child age 0-3. Thirdly the tradition of schoolsending classes midday is being reformed with the aim of letting kids stay in schoolmuch longer thus enabling parents to work full-time as opposed to part-time in orderto be able to take care of kids returning from school.The hopes for these ambitious reforms are tremendous. Germany hopes to improve itslow fertility as well as free up labour force potential that has previously been hinderedto participate in the labour market by child rearing efforts. Thus far Germany’s effortsare seemingly successful and promises great change for the future.