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Journal articles on the topic 'Solar irradiance uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2025

Last updated: 1 August 2025

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1

Ball, William T., Natalie A. Krivova, Yvonne C. Unruh, Joanna D. Haigh, and Sami K. Solanki. "A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21–23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 71, no. 11 (2014): 4086–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-13-0241.1.

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Abstract The authors present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstruction—Satellite era (SATIRE-S) model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160 000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the

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Madhiarasan, Manoharan, Mohamed Louzazni, and Brahim Belmahdi. "Statistical Analysis of Novel Ensemble Recursive Radial Basis Function Neural Network Performance on Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting." Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering 2023 (March 28, 2023): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2554355.

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Reliable operation of energy management systems, grid stability, and managing energy demand responses are becoming challenging because of the flickering nature of solar irradiance. Accurate forecasting of global solar irradiance, i.e., global horizontal irradiance (GHI), plays a significant role in energy policy-making and the energy market. This paper proposes a novel global solar irradiance forecasting model based on the ensemble recursive radial basis function neural networks (ERRBFNNs). The various atmospheric inputs based on the built ensemble recursive radial basis function neural networ

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Hosseini, Majid, Satya Katragadda, Jessica Wojtkiewicz, Raju Gottumukkala, Anthony Maida, and Terrence Lynn Chambers. "Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units." Energies 13, no. 15 (2020): 3914. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13153914.

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Power grid operators rely on solar irradiance forecasts to manage uncertainty and variability associated with solar power. Meteorological factors such as cloud cover, wind direction, and wind speed affect irradiance and are associated with a high degree of variability and uncertainty. Statistical models fail to accurately capture the dependence between these factors and irradiance. In this paper, we introduce the idea of applying multivariate Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to forecast Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) hourly. The proposed GRU-based forecasting method is evaluated against traditional

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Saad, N. Md, M. Z. Sujod, M. I. M. Ridzuan, et al. "Solar irradiance uncertainty management based on Monte Carlo-beta probability density function: case in Malaysian tropical climate." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 8, no. 3 (2019): 1135–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v8i3.1581.

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In recent years, solar PV power generation has seen a rapid growth due to environmental benefits and zero fuel costs. In Malaysia, due to its location near the equator, makes solar energy the most utilized renewable energy resources. Unlike conventional power generation, solar energy is considered as uncertain generation sources which will cause unstable energy supplied. The uncertainty of solar resource needs to be managed for the planning of the PV system to produce its maximum power. The statistical method is the most prominent to manage and model the solar irradiance uncertainty patterns.

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N., Md. Saad, Z. Sujod M., I. M. Ridzuan M., et al. "Solar irradiance uncertainty management based on Monte Carlo-beta probability density function: case in Malaysian tropical climate." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 8, no. 3 (2019): 1135–43. https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v8i3.1581.

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In recent years, solar PV power generation has seen a rapid growth due to environmental benefits and zero fuel costs. In Malaysia, due to its location near the equator, makes solar energy the most utilized renewable energy resources. Unlike conventional power generation, solar energy is considered as uncertain generation sources which will cause unstable energy supplied. The uncertainty of solar resource needs to be managed for the planning of the PV system to produce its maximum power. The statistical method is the most prominent to manage and model the solar irradiance uncertainty patterns.

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Bernhard, G., and G. Seckmeyer. "Uncertainty of measurements of spectral solar UV irradiance." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 104, no. D12 (1999): 14321–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999jd900180.

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Wojtkiewicz, Jessica, Matin Hosseini, Raju Gottumukkala, and Terrence Lynn Chambers. "Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units." Energies 12, no. 21 (2019): 4055. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12214055.

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Variation in solar irradiance causes power generation fluctuations in solar power plants. Power grid operators need accurate irradiance forecasts to manage this variability. Many factors affect irradiance, including the time of year, weather and time of day. Cloud cover is one of the most important variables that affects solar power generation, but is also characterized by a high degree of variability and uncertainty. Deep learning methods have the ability to learn long-term dependencies within sequential data. We investigate the application of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) to forecast solar irr

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Myers, Daryl R., Thomas L. Stoffel, Ibrahim Reda, Stephen M. Wilcox, and Afshin M. Andreas. "Recent Progress in Reducing the Uncertainty in and Improving Pyranometer Calibrations." Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 124, no. 1 (2001): 44–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.1434262.

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The Measurements and Instrumentation Team within the Distributed Energy Resources Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL, calibrates pyranometers for outdoor testing solar energy conversion systems. The team also supports climate change research programs. These activities led NREL to improve pyranometer calibrations. Low thermal-offset radiometers measuring the sky diffuse component of the reference solar irradiance removes bias errors on the order of 20 Watts per square meter (W/m2) in the calibration reference irradiance. Zenith angle dependent corrections to responsivities

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Nouri, Bijan, Stefan Wilbert, Pascal Kuhn, et al. "Real-Time Uncertainty Specification of All Sky Imager Derived Irradiance Nowcasts." Remote Sensing 11, no. 9 (2019): 1059. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs11091059.

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The incoming downward shortwave solar irradiance is harvested to an increasing extent by solar power plants. However, the variable nature of this energy source poses an operational challenge for solar power plants and electrical grids. Intra hour solar irradiance nowcasts with a high temporal and spatial resolution could be used to tackle this challenge. All sky imager (ASI) based nowcasting systems fulfill the requirements in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. However, ASI nowcasts can only be used if the required accuracies for applications in solar power plants and electrical grids a

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Jardine, Phillip E., Wesley T. Fraser, William D. Gosling, C. Neil Roberts, Warren J. Eastwood, and Barry H. Lomax. "Proxy reconstruction of ultraviolet-B irradiance at the Earth’s surface, and its relationship with solar activity and ozone thickness." Holocene 30, no. 1 (2019): 155–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683619875798.

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Solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) irradiance that reaches the Earth’s surface acts as a biotic stressor and has the potential to modify ecological and environmental functioning. The challenges of reconstructing ultraviolent (UV) irradiance prior to the satellite era mean that there is uncertainty over long-term surface UV-B patterns, especially in relation to variations in solar activity over centennial and millennial timescales. Here, we reconstruct surface UV-B irradiance over the last 650 years using a novel UV-B proxy based on the chemical signature of pollen grains. We demonstrate a statisticall

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Gröbner, Julian, Natalia Kouremeti, Gregor Hülsen, et al. "Spectral aerosol optical depth from SI-traceable spectral solar irradiance measurements." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 16, no. 19 (2023): 4667–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4667-2023.

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Abstract. Spectroradiometric measurements of direct solar irradiance traceable to the SI were performed by three spectroradiometer systems during a 3-week campaign in September 2022 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO) located on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain. The spectroradiometers provided direct spectral irradiance measurements in the spectral ranges 300 to 550 nm (QASUME), 550 to 1700 nm (QASUME-IR), 300 to 2150 nm (BiTec Sensor, BTS), and 316 to 1030 nm (Precision Solar Spectroradiometer, PSR), with relative standard uncertainties of 0.7 %, 0.9 %, and 1 % for QASUME/

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Xu, Zhen, and Jianqi Qin. "A Comparative Analysis of the Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Measured from Earth and Mars: Toward a General Empirical Model for the Study of Planetary Aeronomy." Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 271, no. 1 (2024): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ad17c2.

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Abstract Accurate estimation of the solar vacuum ultraviolet irradiance between 0.1 and 200 nm is critical for the study of planetary aeronomy. Previous empirical models have relied on a limited number of reference spectra, or on multiple data sets with various degrees of uncertainty, and on an empirical selection of solar proxies. Here we propose a novel method for the development of empirical models based on Fourier transform and least-squares fitting of the long-term measurements from the Solar EUV Experiment on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics mission. A Fouri

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Quéno, Louis, Fatima Karbou, Vincent Vionnet, and Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers. "Satellite-derived products of solar and longwave irradiances used for snowpack modelling in mountainous terrain." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 4 (2020): 2083–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2083-2020.

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Abstract. In mountainous terrain, the snowpack is strongly affected by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation. In this study, a thorough evaluation of the solar and longwave downwelling irradiance products (DSSF and DSLF) derived from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite was undertaken in the French Alps and the Pyrenees. The satellite-derived products were compared with forecast fields from the meteorological model AROME and with analysis fields from the SAFRAN system. A new satellite-derived product (DSLFnew) was developed by combining satellite observations and AROME forecasts. An ev

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Afzaal, Muhammad Umar, Intisar Ali Sajjad, Ahmed Bilal Awan, et al. "Probabilistic Generation Model of Solar Irradiance for Grid Connected Photovoltaic Systems Using Weibull Distribution." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (2020): 2241. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062241.

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Around the world, countries are integrating photovoltaic generating systems to the grid to support climate change initiatives. However, solar power generation is highly uncertain due to variations in solar irradiance level during different hours of the day. Inaccurate modelling of this variability can lead to non-optimal dispatch of system resources. Therefore, accurate characterization of solar irradiance patterns is essential for effective management of renewable energy resources in an electrical power grid. In this paper, the Weibull distribution based probabilistic model is presented for c

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Richard, Erik, Dave Harber, Odele Coddington, et al. "SI-traceable Spectral Irradiance Radiometric Characterization and Absolute Calibration of the TSIS-1 Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM)." Remote Sensing 12, no. 11 (2020): 1818. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12111818.

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The current implementation for continuous, long-term solar spectral irradiance (SSI) monitoring is the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) that began operations from the International Space Station (ISS) in March 2018 and nominally provides an SSI spectrum every 12 h. Advances in both instrument design and spectral irradiance calibration techniques have resulted in the TSIS-1 SIM achieving higher absolute accuracy than its predecessor instrument in the wavelength range (200–2400 nm). A comprehensive detector-based Spectral Radiometer Facility (

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Horat, Nina, Sina Klerings, and Sebastian Lerch. "Improving Model Chain Approaches for Probabilistic Solar Energy Forecasting through Post-processing and Machine Learning." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 42, no. 2 (2024): 297–312. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4219-2.

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AbstractWeather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting, where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production. Ensemble simulations from such weather models aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather, and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions. However, ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors, and thus require post-proce

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Balenzategui, José Lorenzo, María Molero, José Pedro Silva, et al. "Uncertainty in the Calibration Transfer of Solar Irradiance Scale: From Absolute Cavity Radiometers to Standard Pyrheliometers." Solar 2, no. 2 (2022): 158–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/solar2020010.

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In this work, the method for calculation of uncertainty of pyrheliometers’ responsivity during their outdoor calibration process in the laboratory is exposed. It is applied first for calibration of standard pyrheliometers by comparison to cavity radiometers, and after for calibration of an end-user pyrheliometer against that standard pyrheliometer. The dissemination of the WRR irradiance scale is illustrated in practice and the increasing uncertainty in the traceability chain is quantified. The way of getting traceability to both WRR scale and to SI units in the current situation, where the sh

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Alharbi, Fahad Radhi, and Denes Csala. "Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance Prediction Using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model Based on Neural Networks." Energies 14, no. 20 (2021): 6501. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14206501.

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The rapid growth of wind and solar energy penetration has created critical issues, such as fluctuation, uncertainty, and intermittence, that influence the power system stability, grid operation, and the balance of the power supply. Improving the reliability and accuracy of wind and solar energy predictions can enhance the power system stability. This study aims to contribute to the issues of wind and solar energy fluctuation and intermittence by proposing a high-quality prediction model based on neural networks (NNs). The most efficient technology for analyzing the future performance of wind s

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Al-Saadi, Hassan, Rastko Zivanovic, and Said Al-Sarawi. "Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops." E3S Web of Conferences 23 (2017): 01004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20172301004.

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Husein, Munir, and Il-Yop Chung. "Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Microgrids Using a Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Approach." Energies 12, no. 10 (2019): 1856. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12101856.

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In microgrids, forecasting solar power output is crucial for optimizing operation and reducing the impact of uncertainty. To forecast solar power output, it is essential to forecast solar irradiance, which typically requires historical solar irradiance data. These data are often unavailable for residential and commercial microgrids that incorporate solar photovoltaic. In this study, we propose an hourly day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting model that does not depend on the historical solar irradiance data; it uses only widely available weather data, namely, dry-bulb temperature, dew-point te

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Gentile, Sabrina, Francesco Di Paola, Domenico Cimini, et al. "3D-VAR Data Assimilation of SEVIRI Radiances for the Prediction of Solar Irradiance in Italy Using WRF Solar Mesoscale Model—Preliminary Results." Remote Sensing 12, no. 6 (2020): 920. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12060920.

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Solar power generation is highly fluctuating due to its dependence on atmospheric conditions. The integration of this variable resource into the energy supply system requires reliable predictions of the expected power production as a basis for management and operation strategies. This is one of the goals of the Solar Cloud project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development (MISE)—to provide detailed forecasts of solar irradiance variables to operators and organizations operating in the solar energy industry. The Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis of the National

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Sudharshan, Konduru, C. Naveen, Pradeep Vishnuram, Damodhara Venkata Siva Krishna Rao Krishna Rao Kasagani, and Benedetto Nastasi. "Systematic Review on Impact of Different Irradiance Forecasting Techniques for Solar Energy Prediction." Energies 15, no. 17 (2022): 6267. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15176267.

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As non-renewable energy sources are in the verge of exhaustion, the entire world turns towards renewable sources to fill its energy demand. In the near future, solar energy will be a major contributor of renewable energy, but the integration of unreliable solar energy sources directly into the grid makes the existing system complex. To reduce the complexity, a microgrid system is a better solution. Solar energy forecasting models improve the reliability of the solar plant in microgrid operations. Uncertainty in solar energy prediction is the challenge in generating reliable energy. Employing,

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Li, K. F., X. Jiang, M. C. Liang, and Y. L. Yung. "Simulation of solar-cycle response in tropical total column ozone using SORCE irradiance." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 1 (2012): 1867–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-1867-2012.

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Abstract. Total column ozone (XO3) abundance in Earth's atmosphere is intimately related to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Understanding the solar-cycle modulations of XO3 helps distinguish anthropogenic perturbations from natural variability during the ozone recovery. Here, the solar-cycle signal of tropical XO3 in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) model has been examined using solar spectral irradiance (SSI) estimated from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) solar model and that from recent satellite measurements observed by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment

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Zheng, Xiaobing, Maopeng Xia, Wenchao Zhai, et al. "SI Traceable Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurement Based on a Quantum Benchmark: A Prototype Design." Remote Sensing 12, no. 9 (2020): 1454. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12091454.

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We propose a space benchmark sensor with onboard SI (Système International) traceability by means of quantum optical radiometry. Correlated photon pairs generated by spontaneous parametric down-conversion (SPDC) in nonlinear crystals are used to calibrate the absolute responsivity of a solar observing radiometer. The calibration is systematic, insensitive to degradation and independent of external radiometric standards. Solar spectral irradiance at 380–2500 nm is traceable to the photon rate and Planck’s constant with an expected uncertainty of about 0.35%. The principle of SPDC calibration an

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Kim, Ju-Hye, Pedro A. Jiménez, Manajit Sengupta, Jimy Dudhia, Jaemo Yang, and Stefano Alessandrini. "The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance." Atmosphere 13, no. 11 (2022): 1932. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111932.

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We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter sch

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Wei, Jia, Mu, Wu, and Jia. "A Robust Assessment Model of the Solar Electrical-Thermal Energy Comprehensive Accommodation Capability in a District Integrated Energy System." Energies 12, no. 7 (2019): 1363. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12071363.

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As effective utilization of solar resources is a significant way to address the imbalance between energy supply and demand. Therefore, reasonably assessing the accommodation capability of solar energy is important. A two-stage robust evaluation model is proposed for the solar electricity-thermal energy comprehensive accommodation capability in a district integrated energy system. The accommodation capability index is constructed based on the second law of thermodynamics. A robust optimization model was adopted to deal with the uncertainty of solar irradiance. In the solution procedure, the non

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Müller, Hanno, André Ehrlich, Evelyn Jäkel, et al. "Evaluation of downward and upward solar irradiances simulated by the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF using airborne observations above Arctic low-level clouds." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 24, no. 7 (2024): 4157–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4157-2024.

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Abstract. The simulations of upward and downward irradiances by the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are compared with broadband solar irradiance measurements from the Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) campaign. For this purpose, offline radiative transfer simulations were performed with the ecRad radiation scheme using the operational IFS output. The simulations of the downward solar irradiance agree within the measurement uncertainty. However, the IFS underestimates the reflected solar

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Dewitte, Steven, Dominique Crommelynck, Sabri Mekaoui, and Alexandre Joukoff. "Measurement and Uncertainty of the Long-Term Total Solar Irradiance Trend." Solar Physics 224, no. 1-2 (2004): 209–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-5698-7.

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El-sayed, Ehab Issa, Mohamed Mohamed Al-Gazzar, Mohammed Shehata Seif, and Ahmed Mohamed Attia Soliman. "Energy management of renewable energy sources incorporating with energy storage device." International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) 13, no. 2 (2022): 883. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijpeds.v13.i2.pp883-899.

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The best solution to exploit renewable energy sources (RES) together is by using the application of microgrid (MG). This indeterminate of resources such as solar panels, wind farm, diesel generator, and battery storage system paired with load profile result in random changes within the generation and the load phases, which create it is challenging to properly manage an MG. Due to this problem energy management technique for real-time scheduling of an MG takes into consideration the uncertainty of load demand, renewable energy, and electricity price are proposed. In this paper, linear programmi

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Ehab, Issa El-sayed, Mohamed Al-Gazzar Mohamed, Shehata Seif Mohammed, and Mohamed Attia Soliman Ahmed. "Energy management of renewable energy sources incorporating with energy storage device." International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) 13, no. 2 (2022): 883–99. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijpeds.v13.i2.pp883-899.

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The best solution to exploit renewable energy sources (RES) together is by using the application of microgrid (MG). This indeterminate of resources such as solar panels, wind farm, diesel generator, and battery storage system paired with load profile result in random changes within the generation and the load phases, which create it is challenging to properly manage an MG. Due to this problem energy management technique for real-time scheduling of an MG takes into consideration the uncertainty of load demand, renewable energy, and electricity price are proposed. In this paper, linear programmi

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Lubbe, Foster, Jacques Maritz, and Thomas Harms. "Evaluating the Potential of Gaussian Process Regression for Solar Radiation Forecasting: A Case Study." Energies 13, no. 20 (2020): 5509. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13205509.

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The proliferation of solar power systems could cause instability within existing power grids due to the variable nature of solar power. A well-defined statistical model is important for managing the supply-and-demand dynamics of a power system that contains a significant variable renewable energy component. It is furthermore important to consider the inherent uncertainty in the data when modeling such a complex power system. Gaussian process regression has the potential to address both of these concerns: the probabilistic modeling of solar radiation data could assist in managing the variabilit

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Hinssen, Yvonne B. L., and Wouter H. Knap. "Comparison of Pyranometric and Pyrheliometric Methods for the Determination of Sunshine Duration." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 24, no. 5 (2007): 835–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech2013.1.

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Abstract Two pyranometric methods for the determination of sunshine duration (SD) from global irradiance measurements are evaluated by means of summated sunshine seconds derived from pyrheliometric measurements in combination with the WMO threshold of 120 W m−2 for the direct solar irradiance. The evaluation is performed using direct and global radiation measurements made at the Cabauw Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) site in the Netherlands for the period March 2005–February 2006. The “Slob algorithm” uses 10-min mean and extreme values of the measured global irradiance and parameter

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Norgren, Matthew S., John Wood, K. Sebastian Schmidt, et al. "Above-aircraft cirrus cloud and aerosol optical depth from hyperspectral irradiances measured by a total-diffuse radiometer." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 15, no. 5 (2022): 1373–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1373-2022.

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Abstract. This study develops the use of spectral total and diffuse irradiance measurements, made from a prototype hyperspectral total-diffuse sunshine pyranometer (SPN-S), to retrieve layer fine-mode aerosol (τaer) and total optical depths from airborne platforms. Additionally, we use spectral analysis in an attempt to partition the total optical depth into its τaer and cirrus cloud optical depth (τcld) components in the absence of coarse-mode aerosols. Two retrieval methods are developed: one leveraging information in the diffuse irradiance and the other using spectral characteristics of the

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Kazadzis, S., C. Topaloglou, A. F. Bais, et al. "Actinic flux and O<sup>1</sup>D photolysis frequencies retrieved from spectral measurements of irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 4, no. 4 (2004): 4191–225. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-4-4191-2004.

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Abstract. The results of two methods retrieving actinic flux and ozone photolysis frequencies from measurements of irradiance with a Brewer MKIII spectroradiometer are investigated in this paper. The first method uses actinic flux retrieved from irradiance measurements by the use of known formulas while the second is an empirical method converting irradiance to ozone photolysis frequencies through polynomials extracted from a study of synchronous actinic flux and irradiance measurements. When examining the actinic fluxes derived from the first method to those measured by an actinic flux spectr

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Kazadzis, S., C. Topaloglou, A. F. Bais, et al. "Actinic flux and O<sup>1</sup>D photolysis frequencies retrieved from spectral measurements of irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 4, no. 8 (2004): 2215–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-4-2215-2004.

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Abstract. The results of two methods retrieving actinic flux and ozone photolysis frequencies (JO1D), from measurements of irradiance with a Brewer MKIII spectroradiometer are investigated in this paper. The first method uses actinic flux retrieved from irradiance measurements by the use of known formulas while the second is an empirical method converting irradiance to JO1D through polynomials extracted from a study of synchronous actinic flux and irradiance measurements. When examining the actinic fluxes derived from the first method to those measured by an actinic flux spectrometer data agre

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Asiedu, Shadrack, Abhilasha Suvedi, Zongjie Wang, Hossein Rekabdarkolaee, and Timothy Hansen. "Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process." Energies 18, no. 10 (2025): 2447. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18102447.

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Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Or

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Kim, Shin Young, Benedikt Sapotta, Gilsoo Jang, Yong-Heack Kang, and Hyun-Goo Kim. "Prefeasibility Study of Photovoltaic Power Potential Based on a Skew-Normal Distribution." Energies 13, no. 3 (2020): 676. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13030676.

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Solar energy does not always follow the normal distribution due to the characteristics of natural energy. The system advisor model (SAM), a well-known energy performance analysis program, analyzes exceedance probabilities by dividing solar irradiance into two cases, i.e., when normal distribution is followed, and when normal distribution is not followed. However, it does not provide a mathematical model for data distribution when not following the normal distribution. The present study applied the skew-normal distribution when solar irradiance does not follow the normal distribution, and calcu

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Lockwood, Mike, and William T. Ball. "Placing limits on long-term variations in quiet-Sun irradiance and their contribution to total solar irradiance and solar radiative forcing of climate." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 476, no. 2238 (2020): 20200077. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0077.

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Recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) postulate that quiet-Sun variations could give significant changes to the solar power input to Earth's climate (radiative climate forcings of 0.7–1.1 W m −2 over 1700–2019) arising from changes in quiet-Sun magnetic fields that have not, as yet, been observed. Reconstructions without such changes yield solar forcings that are smaller by a factor of more than 10. We study the quiet-Sun TSI since 1995 for three reasons: (i) this interval shows rapid decay in average solar activity following the grand solar maximum in 1985 (such that activity

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Masache, Amon, Precious Mdlongwa, Daniel Maposa, and Caston Sigauke. "Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance using decision tree-based models and non-parametric quantile regression." PLOS ONE 19, no. 12 (2024): e0312814. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0312814.

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The renewable energy industry requires accurate forecasts of intermittent solar irradiance (SI) to effectively manage solar power generation and supply. Introducing the random forests (RFs) model and its hybridisation with quantile regression modelling, the quantile regression random forest (QRRF), can help improve the forecasts’ accuracy. This paper assesses the RFs and QRRF models against the quantile generalised additive model (QGAM) by evaluating their forecast performances. A simulation study of multivariate data-generating processes was carried out to compare the forecasting accuracy of

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Geronikolou, Styliani, Stelios Zimeras, Stephanos Tsitomeneas, Dennis Cokkinos, and George P. Chrousos. "Total Solar Irradiance and Stroke Mortality by Neural Networks Modelling." Atmosphere 14, no. 1 (2023): 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010114.

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The purpose of this study was to examine the potential effect of solar energy on vascular stroke mortality in a Greek region by using neural networks analysis. The time period studied was from 1985 to 1989. We employed the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring (ACRIM) data as the main representatives of total solar irradiance (TSI) and correlated them with stroke deaths obtained from the Piraeus City Registry. The ACRIM data (parameters included TSI, TSI uncertainty, and EPOCH: time given by ACRIM) were correlated with stroke deaths using Principal Components Analysis (PCA), regressio

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Wapler, Kathrin, and Bernhard Mayer. "A Fast Three-Dimensional Approximation for the Calculation of Surface Irradiance in Large-Eddy Simulation Models." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47, no. 12 (2008): 3061–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jamc1842.1.

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Abstract Cloud-resolving models—in particular, large-eddy simulation (LES) models—are important tools to improve the understanding of cloud–radiation interactions. A method is presented for accurate, yet fast, three-dimensional calculation of surface shortwave irradiance within an LES model using the tilted independent column approximation with smoothing of the diffuse irradiance. The algorithm calculates a tilted optical thickness for each surface pixel that is then used as input to a one-dimensional radiative transfer code. In a sensitivity analysis, it is shown that this calculation can eve

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Polo, Jesús, Carlos Fernandez-Peruchena, Vasileos Salamalikis, et al. "Benchmarking on improvement and site-adaptation techniques for modeled solar radiation datasets." Solar Energy 201 (June 5, 2020): 469–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2020.03.040.

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High-accuracy solar radiation data are needed in almost every solar energy project for bankability. Time series of solar irradiance components that spans decades can be supplied by satellite-derived irradiance or by reanalysis models, with very various types of uncertainty associated to the specific approaches taken and quality of boundary conditions information. In order to improve the reliability of these modeled datasets, comparison with ground measurements over a short period of time can be used for correcting some aspects, bias mainly, of the modeled data by using different methodologies;

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Li, Zichuan, Dandan Niu, Hao Gu, et al. "Modeling the CO2+ Ultraviolet Doublet Emission from Mars with a Multi-Instrument MAVEN Data Set." Remote Sensing 14, no. 7 (2022): 1705. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14071705.

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With the aid of a multi-instrument data set gathered by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) during ten selected periods, we make detailed calculations of the CO2+ Ultraviolet Doublet (UVD) emission brightness profiles which are then compared to the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrometer limb observations. Our calculations confirm that the photoionization of atmospheric CO2 is the predominant process driving CO2+ UVD emission at high altitudes, whereas the photoelectron impact ionization of CO2 becomes more important at low altitudes. The data–model comparisons show good agreement near

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Takyi, G., A. S. Adunyah, and A. Agyei-Agyemang. "Performance evaluation of monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar photovoltaic modules under low and high irradiance conditions in Kumasi, Ghana." Nigerian Journal of Technology 40, no. 3 (2021): 414–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v40i3.8.

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   One of the biggest drawbacks of photovoltaic (PV) for many applications is the uncertainty in the energy output due to losses attributed to efficiency loss at low irradiance levels. In this study, the electrical performance of as received monocrystalline silicon (mono-c-Si) and polycrystalline silicon (poly-c-Si) PV modules were evaluated at high and low irradiance conditions in Kumasi, Ghana using I-V Tracer. The low irradiance level of 200W/m2 was achieved by covering the surface of the PV modules with a calibrated mesh screen. Maximum output power (Pmax) of 87.9 W and 1

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Abd ul Muqeet, Hafiz, Hafiz Mudassir Munir, Aftab Ahmad, Intisar Ali Sajjad, Guang-Jun Jiang, and Hong-Xia Chen. "Optimal Operation of the Campus Microgrid considering the Resource Uncertainty and Demand Response Schemes." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2021 (May 27, 2021): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5569701.

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Present power systems face problems such as rising energy charges and greenhouse gas (GHG) releases. These problems may be assuaged by participating distributed generators (DGs) and demand response (DR) policies in the distribution system (DS). The main focus of this paper is to propose an energy management system (EMS) approach for campus microgrid (µG). For this purpose, a Pakistani university has been investigated and an optimal solution has been proposed. Conventionally, it contains electricity from the national grid only as a supply to fulfil the energy demand. Under the proposed setup, i

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Tuononen, Minttu, Ewan J. O'Connor, and Victoria A. Sinclair. "Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, no. 3 (2019): 1985–2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019.

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Abstract. The presence of clouds and their characteristics have a strong impact on the radiative balance of the Earth and on the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Many applications require accurate forecasts of surface radiation on weather timescales, for example solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. Here we investigate how operational forecasts of low and mid-level clouds affect the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. A total of 4 years of cloud and solar radiation observations from one site in Helsinki, Finland, are analysed. Cloud observations are obtained from a

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Dissawa, Lasanthika H., Roshan I. Godaliyadda, Parakrama B. Ekanayake, et al. "Sky Image-Based Localized, Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Multiple PV Sites via Cloud Motion Tracking." International Journal of Photoenergy 2021 (July 12, 2021): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/9973010.

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Power generation through solar photovoltaics has shown significant growth in recent years. However, high penetration of solar PV creates power system operational issues as a result of solar PV variability and uncertainty. Short-term PV variability mainly occurs due to the intermittency of cloud cover. Therefore, to mitigate the effects of PV variability, a sky-image-based, localized, global horizontal irradiance forecasting model was introduced considering the individual cloud motion, cloud thicknesses, and the elevations of clouds above the ground level. The proposed forecasting model works i

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Weatherhead, Elizabeth C., Jerald Harder, Eduardo A. Araujo-Pradere, et al. "How long do satellites need to overlap? Evaluation of climate data stability from overlapping satellite records." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, no. 24 (2017): 15069–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15069-2017.

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Abstract. Sensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A common challenge with satellite observations is to quantify their ability to provide well-calibrated, long-term, stable records of the parameters they measure. Ground-based intercomparisons offer some insight, while reference observations and internal calibrations give further assistance for understanding long-term stability. A valuable tool f

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Liu, Jingwen, Wei Wang, Yumin Zhang, and Xingming Xu. "Energy Management for Households Considering Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance With Various Probability Distribution." Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology 14, no. 5 (2019): 1943–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42835-019-00243-5.

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Myers, Daryl R., K. A. Emery, and T. L. Stoffel. "Uncertainty estimates for global solar irradiance measurements used to evaluate PV device performance." Solar Cells 27, no. 1-4 (1989): 455–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0379-6787(89)90055-0.

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