Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Solow growth model'

The Northern Territory is a unique jurisdiction that defies the Australian average in many ways. Recently, the smallest economy in the nation has experienced strong economic growth due to the expansion of the resources sector. The neoclassical growth model which was pioneered by Robert Solow (1956) proposes that sustained economic growth is almost entirely dependent on productivity growth. The central question becomes whether or not the Northern Territory’s remarkable economic growth is sustainable in the long run. To answer this question the thesis estimates total factor productivity growth for the Northern Territory using the methodology employed by Krugman (1994) and Young (1994). This is accompanied by an outline of the model and its assumptions, a review of similar studies, and a trend analysis of key economic indicators for the Northern Territory. The thesis will then explore the policy implications of the findings.

 

 

This bachelor thesis aims to uncover the determinants of the economic growth in Mexico with an exogenous growth model. The study is based in an Augmented Solow Model em-ployed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil in

"A contribution to the Empirics of the Economic Growth" (1992). The model uses annual data of Mexico from 1960-2007 and the regressions and tests are developed in the econometric package Stata 10 for eight different periods. The thesis not only uses the Effective Labour and Physical Capital as Inputs in the production Function, but also employs the variable of Human Capital as an economic determinant of growth in the production function. The results of the model correspond with the actual scenario in Mexico; more weight to the Effective Labour (76.34%) rather than to Human Capital (2.12%) or Physical Capital (21.54%) as determinants of growth.

 

 

The topic of convergence in real GDP per capita has become a very sensitive issue, its results often depending on how the sample group, time period, estimation approach and theoretical concept are chosen. This dissertation presents a study and a convenient explanation of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil's (1992) augmentation of the Solow's (1956) neoclassical growth model and its subsequent empirical application to the EU27 over the period 1970-2010. The application is based on the convergence models designed by the Augmented Solow's model and studies convergence speed and patterns among the EU27 countries. The evidence indicates that the pace of convergence within the EU27 is much slower than what the model predicts. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that an increase in human capital has a stronger impact on per capita GDP and, by extension, on convergence than a similar increase in physical capital.

Sverige är ett av världens mest globaliserade länder och globalisering känns därmed som en självklarhet i dagens samhälle. Att något är en självklarhet behöver dock inte betyda att det är bra, varför det finns anledning till att undersöka vilken effekt globaliseringen egentligen har haft och kan komma att få på den svenska välfärden. Eftersom välfärd ofta mäts som tillväxt i BNP är det också detta mått som används i denna uppsats.  

Syftet med denna uppsats är tudelat där den första delen består av att ta fram en modell inne­fattande faktorer av globalisering, som förklarar Sveriges BNP-utveckling mellan åren 1980 och 2008. Den andra delen av syftet är att, genom användande av den framtagna modellen, analysera hur globalisering har påverkat och kan komma att påverka den svenska BNP-tillväxten fram till år 2050.

Studiens metod består av en teoretisk och en empirisk del. Det teoretiska momentet utgörs av en litteraturstudie i dels globalisering och dels tillväxt vilken mynnar ut i en Solow-modell med humankapital som är utvidgad med faktorer av globalisering. Uppsatsens empiriska del består av insamling och bearbetning av statistik samt skattning och tillämpning av modellen för att skapa de olika scenarier som behövs för att uppfylla syftets andra del.

Slutsatsen för denna uppsats är att globalisering är en långsiktig källa till tillväxt. Studiens resultat visar att ekonomisk globalisering har haft mycket stora positiva effekter på den svenska tillväxten sedan år 1980. Med globalisering har Sverige haft en genomsnittlig årlig tillväxttakt på drygt två procent medan motsvarande siffra för ett scenario med helt avstannad globalisering ligger mycket nära noll. Globaliseringens effekter på den framtida BNP-tillväxten är dock ännu större. En simulering av den fortsatta utvecklingen med bibe­hållen globaliserings­­takt ger en tillväxttakt för år 2050 på nästan fyra procent, vilket är tre och en halv procentenheter högre än för det alternativa scenariot. Studiens resultat visar också att även med en halverad globaliseringstakt uppnås stora positiva effekter på både den historiska och den framtida tillväxten.

Sweden is one of the most globalized countries in the world and globalization is therefore a natural phenomenon in the Swedish society. However, that something is natural does not necessarily mean that it is good, why there is reason to examine the effect of globalization on the Swedish welfare. Since welfare is often measured as growth in GDP, this measure is also used in this study.

The purpose of this thesis is divided in two parts where the first consists of developing a model, including factors of globalization, which explains the growth in Swedish GDP between the years 1980 and 2008. The second part of the purpose is to, by use of the developed model, analyze how globalization has previously affected and in the future may affect the economic growth in Sweden to the year 2050.

The method of this study is divided in a theoretical and an empirical part. The theoretical element consists of a literature study in globalization and growth that results in a human capital augmented Solow model that includes factors of economic globalization. The empirical element of the thesis consists of collecting and working with statistical data as well as estimation and use of the model to create the different scenarios that is needed to fulfill the second part of the purpose.

The conclusion of this thesis is that globalization is a long-run source for economic growth. The results of the study show that economic globalization has had large positive effects on the Swedish growth since 1980. During globalization Sweden has had an average annual growth rate of just over two percent while the corresponding figure for a scenario with no globalization is close to zero. The effects of globalization on the future growth are even larger. A simulation with continuing globalization shows a growth rate for year 2050 of four percent, which is three and a half percent units higher than for the alternative scenario. The results of the study also show that even a slower rate of globalization attains large positive effects on both the historical and the future growth.

The question of economic growth is one of the most fascinating concepts the development economics department is experiencing. It has been proven that some theories of economic growth can explain the course of development at an accumulated degree in this paper I’m going to investigate if the countries technical progress contributes to its economic growth. Another interesting thing to look at is how growth emerges in different places at different times. This big change in GDP first started to appear in Britain and then in the United States. In countries like Brazil and Japan the standards of living started to rise in the past century and in China GDP growth started just a few decades ago.  GDP have exploded in the most recent two or three centuries. Standard of living has been very low thru most of history. This thesis investigates the relationship between economic growth and the level of technology, and how ever the countries are converging or diverging away from each other. With the help of secondary collected data and a cross country regression model. The results showed similar results according to previous studies, that technical progress contribute to economic growth, some evidence indicating economic convergence were also found.

This thesis analysed the effect of female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) on economicgrowth and included changes in male labor force participation rate (MLFPR) to help improve thepower of the model. Here, three robust regressions were used on the sample of 16 Latin Countries(Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala,Honduras, Venezuela, RB, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, El Salvador) for theperiod of 1995-2015 in order to identify the effect of each key variable when tested separately andwhen tested together. According to the results, the coefficients of FLFPR and MLFPR are differentand also the addition of MLFPR to the model that has an explanatory variable FLFPR anddependent variable economic growth clearly improves the predicting power of the model and helpsobtain better coefficients. It was also identified that FLFPR has a strong positive relationship witheconomic growth, while MLFPR has a negative effect on the latter. Finally, the existence of u-shape relationship between FLFPR and economic growth was reaffirmed in this thesis, while itwas also shown that MLFPR does not have a u-shape relationship with the economic growth.

A relação entre economia e meio ambiente tem sido cada vez mais explorada, dado que o crescimento econômico pode ter efeitos prejudiciais sobre a natureza, contudo existe a possibilidade de conciliar crescimento com preservação do meio ambiente. A coleta e divulgação de indicadores ambientais permitiram relacioná-los com a renda per capita, o que motivou a investigação de uma hipótese conhecida como Curva Ambiental de Kuznets. O trabalho tem por finalidade estimar, através de dados em painel não estacionário, a relação entre o indicador de pressão ambiental e crescimento de renda per capita e, através da análise de dados em painel estático e dinâmico, a convergência da pegada ecológica entre os países como resultado da evidência direta e indireta, respectivamente, da existência de uma Curva Ambiental de Kuznets. A vantagem da análise está na abrangência da pegada ecológica como indicador ambiental em relação às emissões de poluentes, possuindo um caráter original por não ter sido empreendida anteriormente. Os fundamentos teóricos da análise de convergência estão no Modelo de Solow verde desenvolvido por Brock and Taylor (2010).
The relationship between economy and environment has more and more been explored, and given the potential harm that economic growth might have on nature there is a possibility to conciliate growth and environment preservation. The gathering and publishing of environmental measures allowed to establish their relationship with per capita income in an investigation of the hypothesis known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve. This work estimates the relation of environmental pressure and income per capita and also the convergence of the ecological footprint among countries, as a direct and indirect, respectively, result of the existence of a Environmental Kuznets Curve, by using static, dynamic and non-stationary panel data techniques. The advantage of this analysis is that the ecological footprint is a broader environmental index than pollution indexes. The theoretic foundation of the convergence analysis is the Green Solow model, presented by Brock and Taylor (2010).

This thesis studies the impact from HIV/AIDS on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This is an important region for investigation since HIV/AIDS is more common in poor countries where economic growth levels are initially low.

The theoretical framework for the analysis is the Solow Growth Model. The analysis also considers the impact on changes to human capital and adds this factor to the Solow equation.

The analysis concludes that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has negative effects on per capita GDP growth through the parameters of the Solow Growth Model, including human capital. The thesis also deduces that the pandemic enhances income and gender inequality.

 

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of financial markets and institutions on the economical growth of a developing country. The IRS (interest rate spread) is used as the main tool, to examine Chile and Taiwan regarding their economical growth between 1988 and 2007. The reason Taiwan and Chile have been chosen is due to vast differences in the geographical location, and even divergence in political and economical system of these countries.

The research method that has been chosen for this thesis is a quantitative method. The economic theory is mainly based on secondary data. The method of data presentation and analysis are manly descriptive even though the layout of the thesis is more of an explanation research. The carculations are made with the statictical computer program SPSS. The results of the study are expressed mathematically and in sets of tables. In order to determinate the correlation between IRS and macroeconomic factors and the correlation between IRS and Economy growth, the magnitude and trend of the IRS is analysed from 1988 to 2007. To test the hypothesis, the OLS regression and panel data model is used.

The theoretical part is the base of the empirical part. The theoretical part is needed in order to understand and later on analyze the results from research on Chile and Taiwan. Different aspects of economical growth are defined to make it easier to understand and follow the thesis thoroughly. The financial markets and institutions are discussed very shortly. To understand the growth theory, Solow growth model is discussed, which is one of the most important models concerning the economical growth.

The empirical part of the thesis is dealing with the test of IRS against some macro economical factors such as; costumer price index (CPI), Exchange Rate (EX), Export Volume (EXP) and Money Supply (MO) of two different countries; Taiwan and Chile. The study provides evidence of the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomical factors. The result shows that the correlation between interest rate spread and the macroeconomics factors vary from country to country. This mainly depends on the difference in political situation, the different economic and political policies of various goverments, the high inflation rates and the market structure of the countries. The value of the coefficients gives the magnitude of adjustment in the event that the systems move out of equilibrium. It also provides some evidence that there is a significant relationship between interst rate spread and economical growth. The test results show clearly that in order to gain a sustainable development and economical growth the financial markets must perform well.

The theory of economic growth predicts that poorer regions will eventually converge towards the income level of the wealthier regions (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). The aim of this Bachelor thesis is to establish if absolute convergence in Gross Regional Product (GRP) growth rates exists across LA-regions in Sweden during the period 1994-2004. The variables used in the model of absolute convergence are; the level of initial GRP per capita in the year 1994 and the growth rate of GRP per capita. The authors of this thesis find support of absolute convergence among Swedish LA-regions of 1.67 percent per year. Convergence estimations are also performed for high-, mid-, and low-performing groups of regions in respect to their income level per capita. The low-performing group of regions is in fact converging faster towards the income level of the wealthier regions in Sweden than the mid- and high-performing group. Alternative measurement of convergence is the so called sigma-convergence. The authors find that it only holds for the group of high-performing regions. However, this measurement cannot be considered reliable, as the existence of absolute convergence is necessary for sigma-convergence, but it is not sufficient.

Ekonomisk tillväxtteori förutspår att fattigare regioner med tiden kommer att konvergera mot samma inkomst nivå som rikare regioner har (Barro & Sala-i-Martin, 2004). Syftet med denna Kandidatuppsats är undersöka ifall det förekommer betingad konvergenstillväxt av Brutto Regional Produkt (BRP) nivåer mellan svenska LA-regioner under perioden 1994-2004. Variablerna som används i modellen för betingad konvergens är den ursprungliga nivån av BRP per capita under år 1994, och tillväxtnivån av BRP per capita under perioden 1994-2004. Författarna av denna uppsats har funnit stöd för betingad konvergens bland svenska LA-regioner med en konvergenstakt på 1,67 procent per år. En estimering av konvergens är därtill utförd för hög-, mellan- och lågpresterande grupper av regioner med respekt till deras inkomstnivå per capita. Den lågpresterande gruppen har en snabbare konvergeringstakt mot den inkomstnivå de rikare regionerna i Sverige har, än vad de mellan- och högpresterande grupperna. Ett alternativt mått på konvergens är den så kallade sigma-konvergensen. Författarna finner att detta mått endast håller för gruppen av högpresterande regioner. Emellertid kan inte detta mått räknas som tillförlitligt, då förekomsten av betingad konvergens är nödvändigt för sigma-konvergens, men det är inte tillräckligt.

Seit den 70er Jahren erscheint die Welteinkommensverteilung zwischen den Nationen polarisiert in arm und reich. Dieses Phänomen kann theoretisch mithilfe des Solow Wachstumsmodells erklärt werden. Der Nachweis wurde auf drei Arten geführt. Als erstes wurde graphisch gezeigt, dass Änderungen der Annahmen bezüglich der Sparquote, des Bevölkerungswachstums sowie der Sparquote des Humankapital im erweiterten Solow Wachstumsmodell zu Bipolarität führen können. Die zweite Vorgehensweise war analytisch: eine endogene Sparquote wurde in das Solow Wachstumsmodell eingefügt, für welches dann die Gleichgewichte bestimmt wurden. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass es zur Polarisierung kommt. Schließlich wurde ein empirisch determiniertes Solow Wachstumsmodell formuliert. Die Sparquote sowie die Bevölkerungswachstumsrate wurden mithilfe von Regressionen geschätzt und in das Modell integriert. Hieraus wurden anschließend die Gleichgewichte bestimmt.

The middle-income trap (MIT) theory has gained popularity amongst policy makers looking to avoid the trap since it first arose in 2005. Multiple studies discuss the possible existence of the trap, what it is caused by and what possible solutions it might have. We use the empirical definition of the trap presented by Aiyar et al. (2018) to test for the middle-income trap in order to analyze the effect that international trade, defined by import and export, may have on the MIT. The Arellano-Bond estimator and random-effects probit model are used on data from the Penn World Data Table 9.1 to carry out this investigation. Based on our dataset we generate results slowdowns that give evidence to the MIT and find that import has a negative effect on a country’s risk of landing in an MIT whereas export has a positive effect on the risk.

As the public becomes more concerned with the natural environment, one of the major topics discussed is the oil. Since there is no true source of knowledge how long the oil can continue to be extracted, it is interesting to know how long the world can benefit from such as scarce resource. Instead of idly watching as oil production decreases with time, which pre-measures could be taken in order to minimize a negative impact on an economy? The UAE is a thriving oil rich countries which for the past 30 years have experienced a vast oil wealth. Even though the oil gave wealth to the UAE, they should avoid any future oil dependency since it could negatively affect its now flourishing economy. Therefore, for the UAE to continue growing in the future it is in the best interest for the government to focus on a diversifying strategy that promotes the non-oil economy. By referring to concepts and theories of previous research in this field such as the Solow growth model, Resource curse and Dutch disease the authors find that the UAE had managed to diversify or not. Three sectors in different periods between 1970 and 2007 were measured: The oil sector, the non-oil sector and the government sector. Diversification changes means a decreasing dependency of the oil sector to the non-oil sector while the latter instead depends more on the government sector. Using British Petroleum (2008) and United Nations (2008) as sources, data was collected in order to draw a time-series regression analysis and test empirically for these diversification trends. The results for all periods confirmed that the UAE have indeed diversified and it could thus be observed that it started its successful strategy already in the 1970s. With the right government policy investments and the stability in the union, the UAE prevented from becoming dependent on oil and thereby not crowding out its important non-oil economy.

Med en ökad allmän medvetenhet angående naturmiljön så är oljan bland det mest omtalande temat. Eftersom inget vet exakt hur länge oljan kan utvinnas, är det intressant att veta hur länge världen kan förlita sig på en sådan begränsad resurs. Finns det förebyggande medel för att minska en negativ verkan på ekonomin istället för att passivt bevittna en sjunkande oljeproduktion? Förenta Arabemiraten (FAE) är en framgångsrik union som under de senaste 30 åren har åtnjutit en omfattande oljerikedom. Trots att oljan lade grunden för tillväxten i FAE, så börs unionen undvika sitt oljeberoende eftersom den negativt kan påverka den nuvarande blomstrande ekonomin. Således, för att bibehålla tillväxten i FAE för framtiden, borde det vara i statens största intresse att fokusera på en differentierings-strategi som främjar icke-oljans ekonomi. För att veta om FAE faktiskt har differentierat sig eller inte, används koncept och teorier för tidigare forskning kring områdets som t.ex. Solows tillväxtmodel, Resursförbannelsen och holländska sjukan. Tre sektorer mättes i olika perioder mellan 1970-2007: oljesektorn, icke-sektorn och statssektorn. Icke-olje sektorn förväntas minska oljeberoendet samt öka beroendet av statssektorn vilket resulterar i en differentieringstrend i ekonomin. Genom källor från British Petroleum (2008) och Förenta Nationerna (2008)  har data insamlats för att empiriskt testa en tidsserie regression och se förändringar mellan sektorerna. Under alla perioder i FAE blev en differentieringstrend bekräftad och man kunde därför se att denna framgångsrika strategi redan åtogs i 1970-talet. Med effektiva investeringar i den offentliga sektorn samt en hållbar stabilitet i unionen, undvek FAE ett oljeberoende och därmed främjade icke-olje ekonomin.

This thesis analyses West Germany's economic growth from 1971 to 1990 and the economic growth of the reunited Germany from 1992 to 2011 using the growth models of Solow (1956) - Swan (1956), Kaldor (Kaldor 1957; Kaldor and Mirrlees 1962; Kaldor 1966) and Romer (1986). Applying the Solow (1956) - Swan (1956) model, it was found that TFP growth was the main driver of Germany's growth during both time periods. However, Germany's economic growth after the reuni_cation was signi_cantly weaker than it had been before the reuni_cation, mainly because TFP growth and capital accumulation was lower. The _ndings of this thesis also show that uctuations in TFP can be explained by the propositions put forward by the Real Business Cycle theory. The German's experience based on the both periods of study is consistent with the analysis found in Plosser (1989) in that there is a positive relationship between GDP growth and TFP growth. The application of the technical progress function of Kaldor and Mirrlees (1962) suggested that Germany experienced more technical progress during the second time period than during the _rst one. For the reunited Germany capital accumulation contributed 0.68 to every one percent increase in RGDP, whereas for West Germany it contributed 0.44 to every one percent increase in RGDP. The regression (Kaldor's technical progress function) results suggested that lower TFP growth for the second time period was due to lower capital investments. In addition, it was found that West Germany's production process from 1971 to 1990 was slightly more capital intensive than the production process of Germany from 1992 to 2011. The thesis also tested Kaldor's (1966) three growth laws on the growth experience of the reunited Germany. It was found that only the _rst proposition was con_rmed, suggesting that the manufacturing sector was the driver of Germany's economic growth. No evidence was found for Kaldor's (1966) second and third propositions. The application of Romer's (1986) growth model was unsuccessful. Neither the use of the number of patents granted, R&D expenditure or R&D personnel as a proxy for knowledge did show a statistically signi_cant relationship with TFP growth or with the evolution of the net capital stock. Therefore, it is concluded that in Germany knowledge accumulation does not lead to technological progress or capital accumulation. If the number of patents granted, R&D expenditure or R&D personnel did not played a positive impact on TFP growth, then what is a signi_cant sector? One such sector could be "learning-by-doing" as proposed by Arrow (1962).

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An alternative to quantify and predict the forest potential productivity is the use of process-based models (PBMs). Among the various existent models in the forest area, the 3- PG (Physiological Principles in Prediction Growth) has been used more recently, which, in essence, is a model of water and solar radiation use efficiency and of carbon partitioning. In Brazil, the results obtained with this model have been good, but these results also show the need of parameterisation and calibration of the model through the adjustment of the values of the parameters and relationships, for the conditions of forest sites. There are not works of this type for the cerrado of Minas Gerais (MG). In this study, we made a parameterisation, calibration and validation of the 3- PG model for fast-growing eucalypt plantations at the cerrado of Minas Gerais. The study was conducted with data from the regions of Curvelo and Itacambira MG and two genetic materials (hybrid clones of E. grandis x E. urophylla) were evaluated during a cycle of production (0,25, 1, 2, 3, 5 and 7 years). At the stage of parameterisation, plots constituted of 40 plants were established. The diameter of the plants was measured at 1,30 m high (dbh), and four plants with dbh of around the average per plot were sampled destructively. The diameter (dbh), the total (H) and commercial (Hc) height, the stand volume excluding branch & bark (V) and the aboveground and root biomass were measured in these trees. It was also determined the specific leaf area (σf), the wood density (ρ) and the fraction of stem biomass as branch and bark (pBB). The litterfall rate has been monitored through collectors of 0.5 x 0.5 m distributed in six random points in each plot. Through non-linear models allometric relationships were adjusted, that describe the relationship among the total height, the stem biomass including branches and bark, and the stand volume as a function of dbh, and also equations that describe the behavior of the σf, ρ and pBB as a function of the age. During the stage of calibration, the estimates for dbh, H, V, dry matter of stem and basal area, obtained through the parameterised model, were compared to data measured in the field in each situation and the eventual deviations were minimized by adjusting the values of some variables of the model that were not measured. At the stage of validation, estimates for dbh, V and H, obtained through the parameterized and calibrated model, were compared to independent data (continuum and pre-cut forest inventory) to evaluate the reliability and capacity of extrapolation of the model. In relation to the dendrometric data, the material 3334 has a much more superior productivity than the material 3336 in the region of Curvelo, but in Itacambira the behavior of both materials in terms of productivity is similar. As concerning the performance of the model, it was satisfactory when simulating the growth of eucalypt forests for the clones 3334 and 3336 in Itacambira, and for the clone 3336 in the region of Curvelo. The estimates obtained through the general model developed for the region of cerrado also present significant correlation with the observed data, either at the stage of calibration or at the stage of validation. For the material 3334 in Curvelo, even after alterations in important variables of the model it was not possible to obtain a satisfactory adjustment of the 3-PG, however, the performance of the adjusted model for this condition was superior to the other available parameterisations. In conclusion, the 3-PG model adjusted for the cerrado of Minas Gerais was efficient in simulate the growth of eucalypt forests in the region, and the performance of the model was superior to other parameterisations of available models.
Uma alternativa para a quantificação e prognose do potencial produtivo de florestas plantadas é o emprego de modelos baseados em processos. Dentre os vários modelos existentes na área florestal, mais recentemente tem-se utilizado o 3-PG (Physiological Principles in Prediction Growth), que, em essência, é um modelo de eficiência de uso de radiação solar e água, e de partição de carbono. Os resultados obtidos com este modelo no Brasil tem sido bons, mas mostram a necessidade de parametrização e calibração do mesmo, por meio de ajustes dos valores dos parâmetros e relacionamentos, para as condições do sitio florestal, não havendo trabalhos desse tipo para o cerrado de Minas Gerais (MG). Neste trabalho, realizou-se a parametrização, calibração e validação do modelo 3-PG para plantios de eucalipto na região do cerrado de MG. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido com dados das regiões de Curvelo e Itacambira MG, para dois materiais genéticos (híbridos clonais de E. grandis x E. urophylla), avaliados ao longo de um ciclo produtivo (0,25, 1, 2, 3, 5 e 7 anos). Na etapa de parametrização foram estabelecidas parcelas constituídas por 40 plantas, nas quais foi medido o diâmetro a 1,30 m de altura (dap), sendo abatidas quatro plantas com dap em torno da média por parcela. O diâmetro (dap), a altura total (H) e comercial (Hc), o volume de lenho (V) e a biomassa da parte aérea e raiz foram mensuradas nestas árvores. Foram determinadas também a área foliar específica (σf), a densidade da madeira (ρ) e a fração de galho e casca em relação à biomassa da parte aérea (pBB) excluindo as folhas. A taxa de queda de litter tem sido monitorada por meio de coletores de 0,5 x 0,5 m espalhados em 6 pontos aleatórios em cada parcela. Por meio de modelos não-lineares foram ajustadas equações alométricas que descrevem o relacionamento entre a altura total, a biomassa de stem (lenho + casca + galhos) e o volume de lenho em função do dap, e também equações que descrevem o comportamento da σf, ρ e pBB em função da idade. Durante a etapa de calibração, as estimativas para dap, H, V, matéria seca de stem e área basal, obtidas pelo modelo parametrizado, foram comparadas com dados medidos no campo em cada situação e os eventuais desvios foram minimizados por meio de ajustes ( tuning ) nos valores de algumas variáveis do modelo que não foram medidas. Na etapa de validação, estimativas para dap, V e H, obtidas pelo modelo parametrizado e calibrado, foram comparadas com dados independentes (inventário florestal contínuo e précorte) para avaliar a confiabilidade e a capacidade de extrapolação do modelo. Com relação aos dados dendrométricos, o material 3334 tem produtividade muito superior ao 3336 na região de Curvelo, mas em Itacambira o comportamento dos dois materiais em termos produtivos é semelhante. Já quanto ao desempenho do modelo, o mesmo foi satisfatório, ao simular o crescimento de florestas de eucalipto para os clones 3334 e 3336 em Itacambira e para o clone 3336 na região de Curvelo. As estimativas obtidas pelo modelo geral desenvolvido para a região do cerrado também apresentaram correlação significativa, com os dados observados, tanto na etapa de calibração, quanto na de validação. Para o material 3334 em Curvelo, mesmo após alterações em variáveis importantes do modelo, não foi possível obter ajuste do 3-PG que fosse satisfatório, sendo, no entanto, o desempenho do modelo ajustado para essa condição, superior ao de outras parametrizações disponíveis. Dessa forma, conclui-se que o modelo 3-PG ajustado para o Cerrado de Minas Gerais foi eficiente em simular o crescimento de florestas de eucalipto na região, sendo o desempenho do mesmo, superior ao de outras parametrizações do modelo disponíveis.

A integração do ferramental técnico-científico disponível com os diferentes instrumentos de política e gestão ambiental é essencial para a compatibilização das exigências impostas pelo desenvolvimento com a manutenção ou melhoria da qualidade ambiental e social e, também, para o equacionamento das demandas e dos interesses de cada setor envolvido no processo decisório. Assim, os modelos para a projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo de um determinado território têm sido freqüentemente utilizados. A modelagem propicia a geração e a avaliação das informações para montagem de um panorama das possíveis alterações no uso do solo, considerando que as tendências identificadas para aquele território, num certo instante, sejam mantidas de modo a se desenvolverem de acordo com um determinado cenário projetado. O presente trabalho analisa a possibilidade de aplicação conjunta do método de projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo e instrumentos de política ambiental, levando em conta os aspectos preventivos. Aplicado a uma porção do município de São Carlos (SP), o trabalho apresenta uma projeção para a expansão urbana para os anos de 2012 e 2019, considerando três cenários alternativos de ocupação territorial. Confrontando os resultados obtidos pela modelagem com a capacidade de suporte do meio para a implantação de empreendimentos urbanos - determinada a partir da elaboração de um zoneamento ambiental, verifica-se que, mantidas as tendências atuais, e para os três cenários de ocupação avaliados, a expansão urbana continuará avançando sobre áreas de baixa aptidão para a urbanização, permanecerá exercendo intensa pressão sobre os recursos hídricos e os fragmentos de vegetação nativa, caso não sejam adotadas medidas que modifiquem o atual padrão de ocupação do território.
To compatibilize the demands raised by development with the maintenance or improvement of the social and environmental quality, the integration among technical scientific tools and environmental management instruments is essential to solve the interests of each sector involved at the decision process. On this context are inserted land use and cover change models. The modelling permit the decision-making process to be done evaluating the consequences of possible alterations on land use, which can be identified considering the scenarios projected for the territory under certain circunstances. The presente work analyses the possibility of joint application of this technique and environmental policy tools considering preventive aspects. Allocated to a portion of the São Carlos (SP) municipality, the work projects urban growth for the years 2012 and 2019, considering three alternative scenarios of occupation. Confronting the results obtained by the model with the carrying capacity for the implementation of urban activities - determined from the elaboration of environmental zoning, is showed that, maintained the present tendencies, and for the scenarios evaluated, the urban growth will continue forward and towards the areas with low suitability. In the same way, the pressure over water resources and fragments of native vegetation will remains intense unless measures to modify the standards in occupation can be adopted.

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Teak (Tectona grandis L.f.) is a tree species original from southwest Asia that have adapted well to the Brazilian climatic conditions, especially in the MatoGrosso state. The area planted with teak in Brazil is rising due to its high quality wood and high price at the international market. The productive potential of teak stands can be obtained through modeling and constitutes an input variable to fertilizer recommendation systems based in the nutritional balance (e.g. FERTI-UFV TECA). Recommendations from these systems can be refined by monitoring the nutritional status of the stands based on the leaf nutrient status through NUTRI-UFV TECA. The objectives of this work were: a) parameterize and calibrate 3-PG model for teak stands in the mid-south region of Mato Grosso state; b) evaluate the universality of 3-PG parameterization as function of the forest sites; c) enable 3-PG to estimate teak stands productivity in sites managed by thinning; d) improve FERTI-UFV TECA (Plant submodel) and NUTRI-UFV TECA systems for fertilizer and lime recommendations and nutritional monitoring of teak stands in the Mato Grosso state. This work was carried out in the Santo Antônio do Leverger region MT, in commercial teak stands owned by the Vale do Araguaia Company. The teak stands were sampled at different stages in their cycles (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 11 years). Within each sampled stand three trees were cut, measured in terms of DBH and height and separated in its omponents leaves ran hes and trunk . The trees were lassified a ording to their D H as inferior x s mean x s x x s and superior x s and had the on entrations of a g, S, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu, and B determined for each component. In order to parameterize 3-PG, allometric equations were adjusted to describe biomass production as function of DBH. The diametric distribution model (DDM) employed used the Weibull probability density function adjusted y the maximum likelihood method. β e γ parameters of this function were adjusted for each plot and age, and then correlated with site characteristics. In order to parameterize FERTI-UFV TECA nutrient status of each component was used to estimate the biological utilization coefficient (BUC). For NUTRI-UFV TECA standard nutrient levels (Kenworthy standards) and dual ratios among nutrients (DRIS standards) were estimated based on leaf analysis from 10 locations in Mato Grosso state, comprising teak stands from 1 up to 11 years. Those standards were separated in 2 classes: I) comprising trees up to 5 years old, and II) trees older than 5 years old, with the reference population been constituted by trees growing above than the average. After the parameterization NUTRI-UFV TECA was used to evaluate the nutritional status of the teak stands in Santo Antônio do Leverger. 3-PG returned good estimates for stem (trunk + branches), DBH, height, leaf biomass, and wood volume. With the coupling of DDM it was possible to distribute stem biomass and basal area by 3-PG in diametric classes. The growing and productivity estimates obtained in this present work differed from those by Behling (2009), indicating that 3-PG parameterizations are not universal for teak. Nutrient concentrations varied as a function of the increase in diameter and this variation was different among the compartments. As BUC is the inverse of nutrient concentration, it also varied as a function of DBH. These BUC values and the potential productivity estimated by 3-PG were used to estimate the nutritional demand. In the NUTRI-UFV TECA system general standards differed statistically from age class stratified standards. The coupling of 3-PG and DDM improved the productivity estimates in thinned stands. However, it should be parameterized and calibrated for each region. The models obtained for the BUC values as a function of the age are useful to improve FERTI-UFV TECA system. The foliar nutrient concentration standards and the dual nutrient ratios obtained in this work are useful to improve NUTRI-UFV TECA system, recommending the use of specific standards for each class of age.
A teca (Tectona grandis L.f.) é originária do sudoeste asiático, sendo cultivada no Mato Grosso com sucesso, visando à obtenção de madeira para serraria de ótima qualidade e de elevado valor no mercado internacional. O potencial produtivo de povoamentos de teca pode ser obtido por meio de modelagem baseada em processos e constitui-se em variável de entrada para sistema de recomendação de adubação baseado em balanço nutricional como, por exemplo, o FERTI-UFV TECA. As recomendações assim obtidas podem ser refinadas mediante o monitoramento do estado nutricional com base em análise de tecido foliar pelo uso do NUTRI-UFV TECA. Os objetivos deste trabalho foram: a) parametrizar e calibrar o modelo 3-PG para povoamentos de teca na região Centro-Sul do Mato Grosso; b) Avaliar o grau de universalidade das parametrizações do 3-PG em função do sítio florestal; c) Habilitar o 3-PG para estimar a produtividade, em povoamento de teca, manejados com desbaste; d) Aprimorar os sistemas FERTI-UFV TECA (submodelo Planta) e NUTRI-UFV TECA para a recomendação de fertilização e o monitoramento nutricional dessa cultura no Estado de Mato Grosso. Para tanto, o trabalho foi conduzido na região de Sto. Antônio do Leverger MT, em plantios seminais pertencentes a empresa Companhia do Vale do Araguaia. Para povoamentos de cada idade avaliada (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 e 11 anos) foram abatidas três árvores, classificadas, de acordo com DAP, em árvore inferior (árvore menor que a média menos uma unidade do desvio padrão), árvore média, e árvore superior (maior que a media mais uma unidade do desvio padrão). Essas árvores foram mensuradas quanto ao dap e altura, e separadas em seus componentes (folhas, galhos e tronco). Foram determinados os teores de N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu e B nos componentes das árvores pelos métodos rotineiros e a área foliar específica. Para a parametrização do 3-PG, foram ajustadas equações alométricas para descrever a produção de biomassa em função do dap. O modelo de distribuição diamétrica (MDD) empregado utilizou a função densidade de probabilidade de Weibull ajustada pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Os parâmetros β e γ desta função foram ajustados para cada parcela em cada idade, e correlacionados com características do povoamento. Para a parametrização do FERTI-UFV TECA os teores dos nutrientes nos componentes da parte aérea foram utilizados para calcular as respectivas eficiências nutricionais (CUB), e para o NUTRI-UFV TECA foram obtidos as normas de teores (normas Kenworthy) e relações duais entre os teores (normas DRIS) com base nos resultados de análises foliares de teca em 10 municípios do Estado do Mato Grosso abrangendo, em conjunto, plantios de 1 a 11 anos. As normas obtidas foram estratificadas em classe I = árvores de até cinco anos e classe II = árvores com mais de cinco anos, sendo a população de referência, para cada classe, constituída das árvores que apresentaram crescimento maior que a média. O sistema NUTRI-UFV TECA após parametrizado foi utilizado para avaliar o estado nutricional de povoamentos em Sto. Antônio do Leverger. O 3-PG proporcionou boas estimativas para biomassa de stem (tronco + galhos), dap, altura, biomassa de folha e volume de lenho. Com o ajuste dos MDD, foi possível distribuir a biomassa de stem e a área basal estimada pelo 3-PG nas diferentes classes diamétricas e a partir daí foi simulado desbaste pela remoção de árvores das menores classes diamétricas. As estimativas de crescimento e produção obtidas neste trabalho diferem das estimativas obtidas pela parametrização desenvolvida por Behling, 2009, indicando a não universalidade das parametrizações do 3-PG para teca. Os teores de nutrientes variaram em função do crescimento em diâmetro, e essa variação foi dependente do compartimento da planta. Logo os valores de CUB, que é o inverso do teor, também variaram em função do dap. A produtividade potencial obtida com o modelo 3-PG, e os valores de CUB foram utilizados para estimar a demanda nutricional. No sistema NUTRI-UFV TECA as normas gerais diferiram estatisticamente das normas estratificadas por classe de idade. O modelo 3-PG adicionado do MDD proporcionou melhores estimativas de produtividade em povoamentos manejos com desbastes, devendo, contudo, ser parametrizado e calibrado para cada região de plantio da cultura. Os modelos obtidos para os valores de CUB em função da idade são úteis para aprimorar o sistema FERTI-UFV TECA. As normas de teores e relações entre teores foliares geradas neste trabalho são úteis ao aprimoramento do sistema NUTRI-UFV TECA, recomendando-se o uso de normas específicas por classe de idade.

Com os objetivos de (i) elaborar uma adaptação do método da zona agroecológica, proposto por De Wit, para estimar a produtividade potencial e deplecionada da cultura de milho, utilizando procedimento estocástico, no Rio Grande do Sul; e de (ii) testar procedimentos estocásticos (distribuição normal truncada, triangular assimétrica e triangular simétrica) para simular dados de temperatura e de insolação para estimar produtividade potencial e deplecionada da cultura de milho, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia computacional. A quantidade de energia solar disponível às plantas (em função da latitude, declinação solar e nebulosidade), bem como a capacidade de sua conversão em fotossintetizado, contabilizado em termos de carboidrato, possibilita prever produtividade potencial de grãos de milho. Sem limitação de água no solo, o CO2 assimilado é convertido em massa de carboidrato em função do índice de área foliar (IAF), temperatura, radiação solar absorvida. fotoperíodo e duração do ciclo. Considerando os fatores de correção quanto à respiração e ao IAF, pode-se transformar a massa de carboidrato total final em massa de matéria seca referente a cada órgão (folha, raiz, colmo e órgão reprodutivo), considerando-se as partições de fotoassimilados e a composição da matéria seca. A produtividade potencial (PP) foi calculada com base na fitomassa seca total, no índice de colheita e no teor de água nos grãos. O balanço hídrico cíclico (Thornthwaite & Mather, 1955) foi utilizado para estimar o armazenamento de água no solo no decêndio que antecede a semeadura de milho. O balanço hídrico seqüencial, com variação do coeficiente de cultivo (Kc), foi utilizado para estimar a evapotranspiração da cultura (ETc) e a real (ETr). A produtividade deplecionada foi estimada a partir dos valores de PP, ETr, ETc e do coeficiente de resposta da cultura (Ky). Os dados climáticos de 16 municípios no Rio Grande do Sul, a capacidade de água dispoível (50 mm) e procedimentos estocásticos (distribuição normal truncada, triangular assimétrica e triangular simétrica para simular dados de temperatura e de insolação), foram usados para estimar PP e deplecionada para cada localidade, em diferentes épocas de semeadura. Com base nos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que: (i) a adaptação do método da zona agroecológica possibilita definir a ordem de grandeza das PP e deplecionada da cultura de milho, e produziu resultados coerentes com valores citados na literatura, identificando a melhor época de semeadura, e (ii) o procedimento estocástico pode ser utilizado nos seguintes casos: quando se dispõe de uma série histórica de temperatura, utiliza-se a distribuição normal truncada; quando não se dispõe de uma série histórica utiliza-se a distribuição triangular assimétrica, preferencialmente, ou a distribuição triangular simétrica.
With de purpose of (i) adapting of the agroecological zone method, proposed by De Wit, to estimate potential and depleted corn crop productivity, using stochastic procedure, in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil; and (ii) testing stochastic procedures (normal, and symmetric and non-symmetric distributions) to simulate air temperature and insolation data to estimate potential and depleted corn crop productivity, was developed a computational methodology. The amount of available solar energy to the plants (as function of the latitude, solar declination and cloudiness), as well as the capacity of energy conversion in photosyntates, computed in terms of carbohydrate, makes it possible to forecast corn productivity. Without soil water shortage the assimilated CO2 can be converted in mass of carbohydrate as a function of leaf area index (LAI), air temperature, absorbed solar radiation, photoperiod and cycle duration. Considering the correction factors related to respiration and LAI, this value can be converted into mass of carbohydrate, per hectare, produced during the cycle. To transform carbohydrate mass in dry biomass referring to each organ (leaf, root, stem and reproductive organs), the assimilates partition and dry matter composition. The potential productivity (PP) was computed using the total dry mass, harvest index and the grain water content. The water balance (Thornthwaite & Mather, 1955) was used to estimate the amount of soil water in the period before corn crop sowing date. The sequential water balance, with temporal variation of crop coefficient (Kc), was used to estimate crop (ETc) and actual (ETr) evapotranspirations. The depleted productivity was estimated using PP, ETr, ETc and the yield response factor (Ky) values. The climatic data of 16 counties in the Rio Grande do Sul State, the soil water holding capacity (50 mm) and stochastic procedures (normal and triangular distributions to simulate air temperature and insolation) were used to estimate PP and depleted corn productivity for each local in different sowing dates. The following conclusions can be reported: (i); the adaptation of the agroecological zone method allowed to calculate the PP and depleted productivity with coherent productivity values, as well as it identifies the best sowing date; and (ii) the stochastic procedure can be used in the following cases: the normal distribution approach can be utilized when air temperature historic series is available; and the triangular distribution (non-symmetric triangular distribution is preferable in relation to symmetric distribution) approach can be used when there is no historic series.

Defence date: 18 October 1996
Examining board: Prof. Samuel Bentolilla, CEMFI, Madrid ; Prof. Fabio Canova, University of Catania and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ; Prof. Juan Francisco Jimeno, Universidad Alcala de Henares, Madrid ; Prof. Ramon Marimon, E.U.I. ; Prof. Robert Waldmann, E.U.I., Supervisor
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017

Li, Nan.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-90).
Abstract also in Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Overview --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- Literature on Illegal Immigration --- p.2
Chapter 1.3 --- Literature on Income Distribution --- p.4
Chapter 1.4 --- Outline and Contribution --- p.5
Chapter 2 --- The Solow Model of Illegal Immigration --- p.7
Chapter 2.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.7
Chapter 2.2 --- Equilibrium and Transitional Dynamics --- p.10
Chapter 2.2.1 --- Aggregate level --- p.10
Chapter 2.2.2 --- Individual level --- p.12
Chapter 3 --- Sensitivity Analysis in the Solow Model --- p.16
Chapter 3.1 --- Benchmark Example --- p.16
Chapter 3.2 --- Input Shares --- p.18
Chapter 3.3 --- Share of Unskilled Labor 0 --- p.20
Chapter 3.4 --- Different Initial Value of Capital --- p.21
Chapter 4 --- The Ramsey Model of Illegal Immigration --- p.23
Chapter 4.1 --- The Basic Model --- p.24
Chapter 4.2 --- Transitional Dynamics and Equilibrium --- p.26
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Transitional Dynamics --- p.26
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Steady State --- p.27
Chapter 5 --- Sensitivity Analysis in the Ramsey Model --- p.28
Chapter 5.1 --- Benchmark Example --- p.29
Chapter 5.2 --- Input Share --- p.30
Chapter 5.3 --- Elasticity of Substitution 0 --- p.31
Chapter 5.4 --- Penalty Ratio r --- p.32
Chapter 5.5 --- Different Initial Value of Capital --- p.33
Chapter 5.5.1 --- Case 1 k10 < k20 --- p.34
Chapter 5.5.2 --- Case 2 k10 > k20 --- p.35
Chapter 6 --- Comparison and Conclusion --- p.36

This thesis explores the growth effects of remittances by using some extensions to the Solow (1956) growth model. Using a recent approach popularised by Rao, we estimate an extended production function to analyse the long run growth effects of remittances with both the cross country and country specific estimation methods. Our cross country estimates use data from a panel of 40 high remittance recipient countries. In this process we found that, it is necessary to make a distinction between the direct and indirect growth effects of remittances. Existing studies do not make this distinction and estimate only the direct growth effects. Furthermore, they also fail to make a distinction between the transitionary and permanent growth effects of remittances although they clearly state that their main objective is to estimate the latter. We find that the direct growth effects of remittances, as in the existing studies, are insignificant or even negative. However, many development economists believe that the growth effects of remittances are positive and remittances are an important source of funds to invest in human and physical capital. Therefore, the findings by several econometric studies that the direct growth effects of remittances are negligible have become somewhat controversial. This controversy has become more acute because to the best of our knowledge development economists did not produce any econometric results that support their belief. To resolve this controversy, we made the distinction between the direct and indirect growth effects of remittances. Remittances may have large or small indirect growth effects through their effects on a few intermediate variables that have permanent growth effects. Examples of these intermediate channel variables are investment ratio, development of the financial sector, exchange rate and volatility in output etc. We find that such indirect growth effects of remittances are small but positive. However, these indirect growth effects may be country specific. Therefore, we also estimate these indirect growth effects with the country specific data. Remittances may also have other economic effects besides their growth effects. There is convincing and uncontroversial evidence that remittances are pro poor as they help to reduce poverty in the recipient economies. Therefore, we also estimate these welfare effects of remittances with alternative measures of poverty. Our results show that these welfare effects are significant. The thesis raises some methodological issues on estimating the growth effects of remittances or any other growth enhancing variables like trade openness and investment ratio etc. Although it is difficult to resolve these methodological issues in this thesis, the main contribution of this thesis is to show that Rao‘s approach for estimating the permanent growth effects is a pragmatic option. Needless to say, like all other methodological issues, this issue cannot be resolved to the satisfaction of all. Therefore, further analysis and research is necessary into these methodological issues, which is beyond the scope of a single contribution.

碩士
中原大學
國際貿易研究所
97
Since Taiwan government executes Ten Major Construction Projects, Public Enterprise Privatization and releasing the restriction of export and investment, Taiwan has accumulated huge Foreign exchange reserves and become a well-developed area. Accompanying with the growth of economy, major government’s goal shifts to maintain the level of national income and to find real factors which influence the economic growth. That fits our study’s goal. If one reviews the past studies on economy growth, the majority utilizes different kind of economic growth theoretical models to conduct the research, which the Solow Growth Model was used most frequently. In this study, Income Determination Model and Solow Growth Model are conducted as the research foundation and seasonal data from 1995 to 2007 were used for analytical purpose. Finally we use unit root test, the Johansen co-integration examination, the error correction model and general linear regression analysis to discuss important factors which effect Taiwan economy growth. In addition, the study attempts to combine two models to provide a more complete explanation. It is found that if the government wants to boost the economic growth, it can be accomplished by reducing the level of interest rate, increasing the labor force employment, promoting personnel salary, raising the government’s expenditure, conserving the energy expenditure in the process of production and creating capital stock. By separating capital stock into three kinds, the government capital stock has a negative influence to the economic growth, which resealed the less efficiency in the capital usage. In the model comparison, the results showed that Simple Cobb-Douglas pattern explained Taiwan economic growth better than the original ones. In the error correction model, the simple Cobb-Douglas pattern with variable transformation into the per capita base, the output of Taiwan will recover and reach the long turn equilibrium level.