Academic literature on the topic 'SOU 2017:6'

Purpose Territory-wide system assessment (TSA) was launched and administered by Hong Kong (HK) Education Bureau (EDB) since 2004. Since then, parents and teachers have been questioning its need, value, uselessness, effectiveness, harm for schools, teachers and students. In 2015, the issue blew up with Kau Yan School’s principal boycotting the tests. A series of discussions in the public and media and different surveys were then carried out widely in HK. After review, EDB announced in 2017 that the revised version of TSA be extended to Primary 3 students in HK. The purpose of this paper is to propose that TSAs for Primary 3, Primary 6 and Secondary 3 need a further review to judge their need and uselessness. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews the educational policy governing the administration of the TSA. Primary and secondary data from focus group meetings, press interviews (Bogdan and Biklen, 1982; Miles and Huberman, 1994; Ouiment et al., 2001) and public reports would be analyzed. Besides, participant observation (Nosich, 1982; Sou, 2000; Sou and Zhou, 2007) and theoretical reasoning (Nosich, 1982; Sou, 2000; Sou and Zhou, 2007) have been applied for the critical review of this controversial test. The contrast study on the conflicting views of stakeholders in the education industry would bring up some insights of this controversial educational policy in Assessment for Learning. Findings Conflicting and contrasting perceptions from TSA to basic competency assessment (BCA) among stakeholders of education and government include governmental stakeholder – EDB’s awareness; EDB stressed that TSA is a low-stakes assessment which does not need extra practice for students; non-governmental stakeholders including legislative councilors’ perception, school principals’ perception, teachers’ perception, parents’ perception and students’ perception. Facing the opposition and grievances of different stakeholders, EDB announced in January 2017 that the revised version of TSA: BCA, be extended to HK in May 2017. Parents and legislative councilors were angry and they ask for a review or even cancellation for Primary 3 TSA. Originality/value This original study will initiate more thorough revisions and discussions for the TSAs for Primary 3, Primary 6 and Secondary 3 in HK, as a quality educational management step. While TSA for Primary 3 has been reviewed and substantially “revised,” the community at large still asks for further revision for its needs, uselessness and harm for parents, teachers and students. Since the underlying causes of students’ suicides are not fully identified, the problem of over-drilling practices for TSAs for Primary 3, Primary 6 and Secondary 3 needs to be satisfactorily resolved. Thus, TSAs for Primary 6 and Secondary 3, like that for Primary 3, should be reviewed for probable revision.

<p>Until 2016, very few works had investigated the use of the VSM. With this research, we will discover if the situation has changed in the last 3 years. In the lean manufacturing context, different techniques that help the continuous improvement process can be used (Marin-Garcia & Bonavia, 2011; Marin-Garcia & Carneiro, 2010; Marin-Garcia et al., 2012; Scott, 2001). One is the Value Stream Map (VSM) (Coetzee et al., 2016; Marin-Garcia & Mateo Martínez, 2013; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015). This publication is a protocol (Marin-Garcia, 2015; Marin-Garcia, 2019) that aims to promote research transparency and replication. The concepts investigated in it are defined (VSM and health services sector), a research niche is justified, and the search and codification procedure of the systematic literature review is established. Although there are different versions of the VSM (Dinis-Carvalho et al., 2018; Hines & Rich, 1997; Shou et al., 2017), we will focus on that proposed by Rother and Shook (1998). The main peculiarity of the version by Rother and Shook (1998) is that it graphically shows the flow of information and the flow of materials in the same diagram (Lucherini & Rapaccini, 2017; Shou et al., 2017; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015), which is necessary to complete a project, a product or a service (Bevilacqua et al., 2014; Lucherini & Rapaccini, 2017). It is also very intuitive and easy to understand, even by non-technical people (Lucherini & Rapaccini, 2017).</p><p>The VSM version that we have chosen is usually applied via standardized symbols (Lucherini & Rapaccini, 2017; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015) following a 4-stage procedure (Rother & Shook, 1998; Shou et al., 2017): 1) select a product family (each VSM represents a family of sufficiently homogeneous products to represent the process); 2) draw the current VSM; 3) model the improved process by drawing the desirable future VSM; 4) implement actions to obtain a similar process to the future VSM. These four stages can be split into eight in other implementation versions (Tapping, 2007; Tapping et al., 2002; Tapping & Shuker, 2003). The above procedure allows value-added (VA) and nonvalue-added (NVA) activities and initiating actions to be identified to improve the proportion of VA versus NVA (Bevilacqua et al., 2014; Shou et al., 2017; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015). Our goal is to include any healthcare level (primary care, secondary care - medical specialists, hospitals, referral centers for rare diseases, and geriatric or disability care). We wish to explore the use in organizations of any country worldwide whose ownership is public, private or a nonprofit foundation. We will focus on patient health services. We will not include the pharmaceutical industry or the operation of governmental or nongovernmental public health structures (e.g. ministries, the Red Cross or similar). Different literature reviews on the VSM have been published. Some focus on analyzing several sectors, predominantly manufacturing. Previous research seems to indicate that the VSM allows the transparency of the process to improve by making it much more understandable for the agents involved in it (Shou et al., 2017; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015); reduce process times (lead times) (Shou et al., 2017) and inventories (Shou et al., 2017). However, these results come mostly from repetitive manufacturing contexts (linked to the automotive or consumer electronics sectors, or their auxiliary industries), and normally from Anglo-Saxon countries. There do not seem to be enough publications in order to generalize these results to all kinds of contexts. Some publications reveal that the barriers from using such tools can overcome facilitators in public service contexts (Marin-Garcia et al., 2018b).</p><p>Very few reviews have focused specifically on the VSM and the health services sector (Nowak et al., 2017; Vidal-Carreras et al., 2015). Both conclude that there is not enough material to provide evidence for and a conclusive answer to our research questions. The systematic review that we propose in this protocol intends to answer (in a future publication) the following questions: 1) what is the VSM research gap that applies to the health services sector that currently exists?; 2) is the VSM being used in hospitals or other health centers?; 3) what VSM version is common in health sector publications?; 4) collect examples of the VSM in hospitals/heath centers; 5) how was the VSM used in the hospitals/health centers that have applied it?; 6) what problems and/or difficulties have arisen while drawing the VSM or after drawing it? Different programs will be used for the bibliometric analysis (see details in Marin-Garcia and Alfalla-Luque (2019)). First, the R Bibliometrix package (Aria & Cuccurullo, 2017; Garfield, 2004; Wulff Barreiro, 2007) and also the suitability of SciMAT (Cobo et al., 2012; Santana & Lopez-Cabrales, 2019) to visualize thematic maps and strategic maps will be tested.</p>

We discuss here a possibility of generation of steerable states in asymmetric chains comprising three Kerr-like nonlinear oscillators. We show that steering between modes can be generated in the system and it strongly depends on the asymmetry of internal couplings in our model. We can lead to the appearance of new steering effects, which were not present in symmetric models already studied in the literature. Full Text: PDF ReferencesE. Schrödinger, "Discussion of Probability Relations between Separated Systems", Math. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc. 31, 555 (1935). CrossRef M.D. Reid, "Demonstration of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox using nondegenerate parametric amplification", Phys. Rev. A 40, 913 (1989). CrossRef E.G. Cavalcanti, M.D. Reid, "Uncertainty relations for the realization of macroscopic quantum superpositions and EPR paradoxes", Journal of Modern Optics 54, 2373 (2007). CrossRef S.P. Walborn, A. Salles, R.M. Gomes, F. Toscano, P.H. Souto Ribeiro, "Revealing Hidden Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Nonlocality", Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 130402 (2011). CrossRef H.M. Wiseman, S.J. Jones, A.C. Doherty, "Steering, Entanglement, Nonlocality, and the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Paradox", Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 140402 (2007). CrossRef S.J. Jones, H.M. Wiseman, A.C. Doherty, "Entanglement, Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen correlations, Bell nonlocality, and steering", Phys. Rev. A 76, 052116 (2007). CrossRef J.K. Kalaga, W. Leoński, "Quantum steering borders in three-qubit systems", Quantum Inf Process 16, 175 (2017). CrossRef Q. He, Z. Ficek, "Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox and quantum steering in a three-mode optomechanical system", Phys. Rev. A 89, 022332 (2014). CrossRef S. Kiesewetter, Q.Y. He, P.D. Drummond, M.D. Reid, "Scalable quantum simulation of pulsed entanglement and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen steering in optomechanics", Phys. Rev. A 90, 043805 (2014). CrossRef K. Bartkiewicz, A. Cernoch, K. Lemr, A. Miranowicz, F. Nori, "Experimental temporal quantum steering", Scientific Reports 6, 38076 (2016). CrossRef A. Barasiński, B. Brzostowski, R. Matysiak, P. Sobczak, D. Woźniak, In: R. Wyrzykowski, J. Dongarra, K. Karczewski, J. Wasniewski editor, Parallel Processing and Applied Mathematics (PPAM 2013), Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8385. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg (2014). CrossRef A. Drzewiński, J. Sznajd, "On the real-space renormalization-group study of some 2D quantum spin systems", Physica A 170, 415 (1991). CrossRef G.J. Milburn, C.A. Holmes, "Quantum coherence and classical chaos in a pulsed parametric oscillator with a Kerr nonlinearity", Phys. Rev. A 44, 4704 (1991). CrossRef W. Leoński, "Quantum and classical dynamics for a pulsed nonlinear oscillator", Physica A 233, 365 (1996). CrossRef A. Kowalewska-Kudłaszyk, J.K. Kalaga, W. Leoński, "Long-time fidelity and chaos for a kicked nonlinear oscillator system", Physics Letters A 373, 1334 (2009). CrossRef J.K. Kalaga, W. Leoński, "Two proposals of quantum chaos indicators related to the mean number of photons: pulsed Kerr-like oscillator case", Proc. SPIE 10142, 101421L (2016). CrossRef A. Barasiński, W. Leoński, T. Sowiński, "Ground-state entanglement of spin-1 bosons undergoing superexchange interactions in optical superlattices", J. Opt. Soc. Am. B 31, 1845 (2014). CrossRef A. Barasiński, W. Leoński, "Symmetry restoring and ancilla-driven entanglement for ultra-cold spin-1 atoms in a three-site ring", Quantum Inf Process 16, 6 (2017). CrossRef D. Woźniak, A. Drzewiński, G. Kamieniarz, "Relaxation Dynamics in the Spin-1 Heisenberg Antiferromagnetic Chain after a Quantum Quench of the Uniaxial Anisotropy", Acta Physica Polonica A 130, 1395 (2016). CrossRef R. Szczęśniak, D. Szczęśniak, E.A. Drzazga, "Superconducting state in the atomic metallic hydrogen just above the pressure of the molecular dissociation", Solid State Communications 152, 2023 (2012). CrossRef A. P. Durajski, R. Szczęśniak, M.W. Jarosik, "Properties of the superconducting state in compressed sulphur", Phase Transitions 85, 727 (2012). CrossRef R. Szczęśniak, A. P. Durajski, "The thermodynamic properties of the high-pressure superconducting state in the hydrogen-rich compounds", Solid State Sciences 25, 45 (2013). CrossRef X. Wang, A. Miranowicz, H.R. Li, F. Nori, "Multiple-output microwave single-photon source using superconducting circuits with longitudinal and transverse couplings", Phys. Rev. A 94, 053858, (2016). CrossRef Y.X. Liu, X.W. Xu, A. Miranowicz, F. Nori, "From blockade to transparency: Controllable photon transmission through a circuit-QED system", Phys. Rev. A 89, 043818 (2014). CrossRef M.K. Olsen, "Spreading of entanglement and steering along small Bose-Hubbard chains", Phys. Rev. A 92, 033627 (2015). CrossRef E.G. Cavalcanti, Q.Y. He, M.D. Reid, H.M. Wiseman, "Unified criteria for multipartite quantum nonlocality", Phys. Rev. A 84, 032115 (2011). CrossRef

Resumo: O Brasil vive hoje o aprofundamento de uma forte ofensiva neoliberal decorrente de mais uma ruptura institucional em 2016, conduzida pelas elites políticas e econômicas representativas do capital nacional e internacional, com suporte parlamentar, midiático e jurídico que fragilizou o estado democrático de direito e impôs graves retrocessos sociais e econômicos ao povo brasileiro. Nesse contexto, as forças populares e democráticas são desafiadas a intensificar os processos de mobilização social e de disputa eleitoral com o desafio de retomada da democracia e defesa de direitos já conquistados, além de avançar na construção de um projeto nacional popular. O presente artigo pretende contribuir com a análise da recente trajetória da sociedade brasileira, tendo por foco os dilemas e conquistas para enfrentamento das desigualdades sociais, enquanto base para um “projeto social de nação”. Palavras-chave: Conjuntura nacional. Desigualdade social. Projeto popular.Abstract: Brazil lives now deepening the strong neoliberal offensive due to another institutional rupture in 2016, conducted by political and economic elites which are representatives of national and international capital, with parliamentary, mass media and judiciary support, that fragilized the democratic state of law and imposed serious social and economic regressions to Brazilian people. Within this context, popular and democratic forces are challenged to intensify their processes of social mobilization and electoral dispute with the challenge of returning democracy and defending the already acquired rights, in addition to advance building a popular national project. This article is willing to contribute with the recent Brazilian society course analysis, focusing in dilemmas and achievements to fight against social inequalities, while it's a base to a "social project of nation".Keywords: National conjuncture. Social inequality. Popular project. 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Abstract Background Obesity (OB) is a serious epidemic in the United States. Methods We examined OB patterns and time trends across socio-economic and geographic parameters and projected the future situation. Large national databases were used. Overweight (OW), OB and severe obesity (SOB) were defined using body mass index cut-points/percentiles; central obesity (CO), waist circumference cut-point in adults and waist:height ratio cutoff in youth. Various meta-regression analysis models were fit for projection analyses. Results OB prevalence had consistently risen since 1999 and considerable differences existed across groups and regions. Among adults, men’s OB (33.7%) and OW (71.6%) levelled off in 2009–2012, resuming the increase to 38.0 and 74.7% in 2015–2016, respectively. Women showed an uninterrupted increase in OB/OW prevalence since 1999, reaching 41.5% (OB) and 68.9% (OW) in 2015–2016. SOB levelled off in 2013–2016 (men: 5.5–5.6%; women: 9.7–9.5%), after annual increases of 0.2% between 1999 and 2012. Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest prevalence in women’s OB/SOB and men’s SOB. OB prevalence in boys rose continuously to 20.6% and SOB to 7.5% in 2015–2016, but not in girls. By 2030, most Americans will be OB/OW and nearly 50% of adults OB, whereas ∼33% of children aged 6–11 and ∼50% of adolescents aged 12–19 will be OB/OW. Since 1999, CO has risen steadily, and by 2030 is projected to reach 55.6% in men, 80.0% in women, 47.6% among girls and 38.9% among boys. Regional differences exist in adult OB prevalence (2011–2016) and across ethnicities; South (32.0%) and Midwest (31.4%) had the highest rates. Conclusions US obesity prevalence has been rising, despite a temporary pause in 2009–2012. Wide disparities across groups and geographical regions persist. Effective, sustainable, culturally-tailored interventions are needed.

The optical setup for holographic projection on the scatterings in fluorescent liquids is presented. Such media can be used as volumetric screens for near-eye holographic displays, solving the problem of speckle noise and very small exit pupils in existing setups. Three different oils (canola, olive and engine oil) with 532 nm laser and tonic water with 405 nm laser are used for projecting holographic fields, the quality of such images is investigated. The laser wavelength is cut out from acquisition on a camera and only filtered fluorescent light is observed. The best and brightest results are obtained with engine oil. Full Text: PDF ReferencesX. Li, C. P. Chen, H. Gao, et al. "Video-Rate Holographic Display Using Azo-Dye-Doped Liquid Crystal", Journal of display technology 10(6), 438-443 (2014). CrossRef X. Li, Z. Song, F. Li, X. Dong, W. Liu, "79‐3: Video‐rate Holographic Display in ZnSe layer‐assisted Quantum Dot Doped Liquid Crystal with High‐photorefractive Sensitivity", SID Symposium Digest of Technical Papers. Vol. 48. No. 1. 2017, CrossRef Sasaki, Takeo, et al. "Real-time dynamic hologram in photorefractive ferroelectric liquid crystal with two-beam coupling gain coefficient of over 800 cm–1 and response time of 8 ms", Applied Physics Letters 6(2) (2013) CrossRef N. Tsutsumi, K. Kinashi, A. Nomura, W. Sasaki, "Quickly Updatable Hologram Images Using Poly(N-vinyl Carbazole) (PVCz) Photorefractive Polymer Composite", Materials 5.8: 1477-1486 (2012) CrossRef M. Makowski, "Simple holographic projection in color", et al. Optics express 20.22: 25130-25136 (2012) CrossRef A. Yagi, M. Imura, Y, Kuroda, O. Oshiro, "360-degree fog projection interactive display", SIGGRAPH Asia 2011 Emerging Technologies. ACM, (2011) CrossRef C.H. Hsu, K. L. Hua, W. H. Cheng. "Omni-Tube: a low-cost portable omnidirectional interactive 3D display", SIGGRAPH Asia 2012 Posters. ACM, (2012) CrossRef Z. Zeng, H. Zheng, X. Lu, H. Gao, Y. Yu, "Dynamic holographic three-dimensional projection based on liquid crystal spatial light modulator and cylindrical fog screen", Opt Rev (2015) 22: 853 CrossRef I. Rakkolainen, "Feasible mid-air virtual reality with the immaterial projection screen technology", 3DTV-Conference, Tampere (2010) CrossRef S. Yanfeng, et al. "A multi-plane optical see-through holographic three-dimensional display for augmented reality applications", Optik 157: 190-196 (2018) CrossRef G. Li, D. Lee, Y. Jeong, J. Cho, B. Lee, "Holographic display for see-through augmented reality using mirror-lens holographic optical element", Opt. Lett. 41(11), 2486-2489 (2016) CrossRef C. L. Lin, Y. Z. Su, M. W. Hung, K. C. Huang "Augmented reality system", Proc. SPIE 7798, Applications of Digital Image Processing XXXIII, 779826 (2010) CrossRef A. Maimone, A. Georgiou, J. S. Kollin, "Holographic near-eye displays for virtual and augmented reality", ACM Trans. Graph. 36, 4, 1-16 (2017) CrossRef M. Quinten, Optical properties of nanoparticle systems: Mie and beyond (John Wiley & Sons 2010). CrossRef J.-W. Liaw, S.-W. Tsai, H.-H. Lin, T.-C. Yen, B.-R. Chen, "Wavelength-dependent Faraday–Tyndall effect on laser-induced microbubble in gold colloid", Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer 113(17), 2234-2242 (2012), CrossRef T. Mu et al. "Classification of edible oils using 532 nm laser-induced fluorescence combined with support vector machine", Anal. Methods 5, 6960 (2013) CrossRef T. Mu et al. "Classification of Motor Oil Using Laser-Induced Fluorescence and Phosphorescence", Analytical Letters 49:8, 1233-1239 (2015) CrossRef V. Rostampour, M. J. Lynch, "Quantitative Techniques To Discriminate Petroleum Oils Using LED-induced Fluorescence", WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 95, 265 262 (2006) CrossRef F. Wyrowski and O. Bryngdahl, "Iterative Fourier-transform algorithm applied to computer holography", Opt. Soc. Am. A 5(7), 1058-1065 (1988) CrossRef

Abstract. Understanding the effectiveness of air pollution control policies is important for future policy making. China has implemented strict air pollution control policies since the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP). There is still a lack of overall evaluation of the effects of air pollution control policies on PM2.5 pollution improvement in China since the 11th FYP. In this study, we aimed to assess the effects of air pollution control policies from 2005 to 2017 on PM2.5 using satellite remote sensing. We used the satellite-derived PM2.5 of 2005–2013 from one of our previous studies. For the data of 2014–2017, we developed a two-stage statistical model to retrieve satellite PM2.5 data using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 aerosol optical depth (AOD), assimilated meteorology, and land use data. The first stage is a day-specific linear mixed effects (LME) model and the second stage is a generalized additive model (GAM). Results show that the Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction (ECER) policy, implemented in the 11th FYP period and focused on SO2 emissions control, had co-benefits with PM2.5 reductions. The increasing trends of PM2.5 pollution (1.88 and 3.14 µg m−3 year−1 for all of China and the Jingjinji region in 2004–2007, p<0.005) were suppressed after 2007. The overall PM2.5 trend for all of China was −0.56 µg m−3 year−1 with marginal significance (p=0.053) and PM2.5 concentrations in the Pearl River Delta region had a big drop (−4.81 µg m−3 year−1, p<0.001) in 2007–2010. The ECER policy during the 12th FYP period was basically an extension of the 11th FYP policy. PM2.5 is a kind of composite pollutant which comprises primary particles and secondary particles such as sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, etc. Since the ECER policy focused on single-pollutant control, it had shown great limitation for PM2.5 reductions. The PM2.5 concentrations did not decrease from 2010 to 2013 in polluted areas (p values of the trends were greater than 0.05). Therefore, China implemented two stricter policies: the 12th FYP on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in Key Regions (APPC-KR) in 2012, and the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control (APPC-AP) in 2013. The goal of air quality improvement (especially PM2.5 concentration improvement) and measures for multi-pollutant control were proposed. These policies led to dramatic decreases in PM2.5 after 2013 (−4.27 µg m−3 year−1 for all of China in 2013–2017, p<0.001).

The paper presents the results of calculations of colorimetric parameters of LED sources operating at a temperature range from -25oC to 25oC. The chromaticity coordinates and color rendition quality parameters were calculated on the basis of registered spectral distributions of radiation. For individual LED chromaticity shift is illustrated at CIE 1931 x,y diagram with 3 step and 7 step MacAdam ellipses. Full Text: PDF ReferencesJ. P. Freyssinier, D. Frering, J. Taylor, N. Narendran, and P. Rizzo, Reducing lighting energy use in retail display windows. Sixth International Conference on Solid State Lighting, Proceedings of SPIE 6337, 63371L (2006). CrossRef Aman, M. M., et al., 2013. Analysis of the performance of domestic lighting lamps, Energy Policy, CrossRef E. Elijošiute, J. Balciukevičiute, G. Denafas, Life cycle assessment of; compact fluorescent and incandescent lamps: Comparative analysis. Environ Res. Eng. Manag. 61 (3), pp. 65-72, (2012), CrossRef D. Czyzewski, LED substitutes of conventional incandescent lamps Przeglad Elektrotechniczny R. 88, No. 11 (2012), CrossRef P. Tabaka, P. Rozga, Assessment of methods of marking LED sources with the power of equivalent light bulb, ulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences, Vol. 65, No. 6, (2017) CrossRef I. Fryc, P. Jakubowski, K. Kołacz, Analysis of optical radiation parameters of compact discharge HID lamps and LED COB modules used for illuminating shop windows, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny,R. 93, No 11, (2017); pp. 186-189, CrossRef T. Kawabata, Y. Ohno; Optical measurements of OLED panels for lighting applications, pp 1176-1186 Jun 2013, Journal of Modern Optics, Vol. 60, 2013 Issue 14 CrossRef W. Żagan, Conditions necessary to replacing the conventional lamps by energy-saving lamps, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny R. 85, No. 5, pp. 100-104, (2009). DirectLink P. Tabaka; Influence of Ambient Temperature on Colour Properties of Low-Pressure Fluorescent Lamps, Light & Engineering, Vol. 23; No. 2; (2015). DirectLink W. R. Ryckaert, et al., Linear LED tubes versus fluorescent lamps: An evaluation. Energy Build. 49, pp. 429-436. CrossRef M. Zalesinska, J. Zablocka, K. Wandachowicz, Evaluation of Selected Parameters of Non-Directional Household Lamps, Conference: 2018 VII. Lighting Conference of the Visegrad Countries (Lumen V4), CrossRef I. Fryc; Measurement techniques of optical LEDs properties performed with compliance conformity with CIE 127:2007 standard, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny R. 85, No. 11, pp. 317-319, (2009) DirectLink IESNA, IES Approved Method: Measuring Lumen Maintenance of LED Light Sources. IES LM-80-08', IES Subcommittee on Solid-State Lighting of the IES Testing Procedures Committee (2018). DirectLink D. B. Judd, Estimation of chromaticity differences and nearest color temperature on the standard 1931 ICI colorimetric coordinate system. J. Opt. Soc. America 26 (11), 421, (1936) CrossRef CIE 177:2007 Colour Rendering of White LED Light Sources DirectLink CIE 13.3-1995 Method of Measuring and Specifying Colour. DirectLink CIE 224:2017 Colour Fidelity Index for accurate scientific use DirectLink CIE 15:2004 Colorimetry. DirectLink D. Mozysrska, M. Wyrwas, I. Fryc, The determination of the LEDs colorimetric parameters, in the range of their operating temperature, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 93, No. 4a, pp. 232-234, (2012). DirectLink J. Kowalska, Analysis of parameters describing the quality of the color rendering of light sources according to the IES TM-30-15 and the CIE 013.3-1995, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 93, No. 6; pp. 50-54, (2017) CrossRef J. Kowalska, I. Fryc, Colour rendition quality of typical fluorescent lamps determined by CIE Colour Fidelity Index and Colour Rendering Index, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 95, No. 7; (2019), pp. 94-97 CrossRef J. Kowalska, Ambiguity and limitations in determining the quality of the color rendering of light sources by index Ra (CIE CRI), Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 93 No. 5, pp. 74-78, (2017) CrossRef I. Fryc, J. Fryc, A. Wasowski, Considerations about determining color rendering of light sources, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 92 No. 2, pp. 218-223, (2016) CrossRef I. Fryc, LED's spectral power distribution under different condition of operating temperature and driving current, Przeglad Elektrotechniczny, R. 86, No. 10, pp. 187-189, (2010). DirectLink A. David, P. Fini, K. Houser et al., Development of the IES method for evaluating the color rendition of light sources, Optics Express; Vol. 23; Issue 12, pp. 15888-15906, (2015). CrossRef K. Houser, M. Mossman, K. Smet et al, Tutorial, Color Rendering and Its Applications in Lighting, LEUKOS; Vol. 12, Issue 1-2; pp. 7-26; (2016). CrossRef

Knowledge about clean and healthy life in children needs to be given early to shape behavior in everyday life. Knowledge about healthy living can be provided at school through various learning programs. This study aims to find the effectiveness of health promotion programs (JUMSIH) to increase children's knowledge about clean and healthy living. The research method is a pre-experimental one-shot case study design. The respondents of this study were 68 students aged 7-8 years. The results showed that the JUMSIH program can help children have knowledge about healthy living. Based on data analysis, n = 15 generally obtained scores above 2.6. It was concluded that healthy living skills are often performed by students such as hand washing, bathing, and toothbrush behavior which are basic skills for children to be able to live healthy lives. Suggestions for further research which is the development of various programs to increase awareness of clean and healthy living from an early age.
 Keywords: Clean and healthy life Knowledge, Early Childhood, Health Promotion Program (JUMSIH)
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A child's best interest is a subject that affects many people, not least in custody battles. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child and national legislation in, for example, the Children and Parents Code aims to protect and strengthen children's legal status in society and in custody disputes. Despite this, the number of custody disputes increases and it is the children who are most affected by the parents' conflicts. It is not always easy for the court to determine what is a child's best interest in an objective manner. Often there is a certain degree of subjectivity in the assessment. Many times, different interests, which the court has to decide on, conflict with each other. Through the legal doctrinal method, we have described the source of law and reported the applicable law in relation to the legal provisions relevant to the thesis. We have chosen to start from a recently settled and reported court case to investigate the problem and the complexity of determining the child's best interests when several factors play a role. In the current court case, the joint custody was dissolved and the father was entrusted with sole custody custody even though he was previously convicted of assault by both children and did not meet it for five years, because the mother failed to ensure that the children had had contact with their father and thus committed so-called visitation interference. The Court considered that the risk of children growing up without the right of both their parents weighed heavier than the principle of continuity, which otherwise is strongly rooted in practice. Through this investigation, and particularly by having the opportunity to examine the large volume of documents received from the Court, we have gained a deeper understanding of the Court of Appeal's judgment even though we do not agree with its correctness in all parts. Review dispensation was denied by the Supreme Court, but our personal opinion is that more guidance is needed on the subject for the future. The legislator has proposed how the child's best interests through a legislative amendment should be further strengthened, this by the principle of not only expressing decisions concerning the child but also having an impact on all issues concerning the child in custody purposes.

Ett brett och djupt ordförråd är en av de absolut viktigaste komponenterna för att kunna förstå och prestera i alla skolans ämnen. Andraspråkselever kan dock börja den svenska skolan utan ett basordförråd på cirka 8000 ord och skall lära in det samtidigt som de skall lära in de 3000 nya ord per år som förstaspråkselever lär sig. Dessa omständigheter låg till grund för valet av att undersöka första- och andraspråkselevers ordförråd i sitt skrivande. Studien undersöker också om det finns skillnader i elevers ordförråd i förhållande till vilket betyg elevtexterna erhållit. Tidigare forskning (Hultman & Westman, 1977: Nordenfors, 2011) visar att elever med högre betyg har ett bredare ordförråd samt att andraspråkselever använder mer talspråk i skrift, än vad förstaspråkselever gör. Studien grundar sig i funktionell grammatik vilket innebär att texterna analyserats med kontexten i fokus i den bemärkelsen att betydelsen och funktionen av elevernas ordförråd för texten som helhet analyserats. 40 elevtexter från årskurs 6 från den beskrivande/förklarande delen på det nationella provet i svenska och svenska som andraspråk 2013 undersöks via en kvantitativ och kvalitativ textanalys. I studien undersöktes de kvantitativa måtten ordmängd, ordlängd och ordvariationsindex samt användningen av substantiv och pronomen, abstrakta och konkreta substantiv samt vilka ämnesord som eleverna använder. Resultatet visade skillnader mellan första- och andraspråkselevers ordförråd, främst att andraspråkselever inte hade lika stor variation i ordförrådet samt att de använde mindre ämnesord jämfört med förstaspråkseleverna. De största skillnaderna i elevernas ordförråd syntes dock mellan de undersökta betygsgrupperna, obereonde av svenska som första- eller andraspråk. Elevtexterna med högre betyg hade de generellt högsta värdena i måtten ordmängd och ordlängd, de använde fler ämnesord, fler abstrakta substantiv, samt använde fler substantiv än pronomen jämfört med vad elever med lägre betyg gjorde. Resultatet visar att elever med lägre betyg och elever med svenska som andraspråk använder talspråk i större utsträckning i sitt skrivande.

Introdução. Desde 2006 a Assistência Farmacêutica da Coordenação de Atenção Básica da Secretaria Municipal da Saúde de São Paulo (SMS-SP) recebeu, por ano, em média, cerca de 125 solicitações de medicamentos não constantes da Relação Municipal de Medicamentos Essenciais - Remume-SP, antes de 2011, e a partir deste ano 250 solicitações, demanda que ainda não foi objeto de estudo para se conhecer de forma sistemática sua natureza e as implicações quanto à regulação sob o marco do acesso racional a fármacos.Objeto do estudo. Avaliou-se as solicitações de produtos farmacêuticos não constantes da Remume-SP, de 2008 a 2013. Método. Análise de documentos, segundo a prática médica com base em provas científicas, de solicitação de medicamentos não disponíveis na Remume-SP decorrente de prescrição médica por meio de Formulário de Justificação para aquisição de medicamentos não constantes da Remume-SP, e oriunda de serviços da SMS-SP no período do estudo. Resultado. Analisou-se os processos advindos de 1.174 solicitações, de 2008 a 2013, que levou à não autorização de aquisição de 58,9 por cento (N=692), pelos seguintes motivos: 1- não há prova suficiente na literatura, 15 (17 por cento ); 2- consta da Remume-SP, 11 (1 por cento ); 3- disponível na SES-SP, 56 (8 por cento ); 4- informação clínica insuficiente, 151 (22 por cento ); 5- fornecimento CACON, 10 (1 por cento ); 6- fármaco desnecessário, 18 (3 por cento ); 7- indicação de outro fármaco, ou outra concentração do fármaco solicitado, ou outro acessório, ou ainda outro tratamento (cirúrgico, por exemplo), 169 (24 por cento ); 8- solicitação de parecer de área técnica relacionada, 62 (9 por cento ); 9- paciente não acompanhado em serviço municipal de saúde, 12 (2 por cento ); 10- erro de prescrição, 39 (6 por cento ); 11- não há prova suficiente na literatura e informação clínica insuficiente, 49 (7 por cento ). As razões do não acolhimento do pedido do médico estão apresentadas em exemplos, das principais categorias farmacêuticas, considerando-se a variedade das solicitações, todos documentados pela literatura e extraídos dos processos de solicitações. Faz-se recomendações para a melhoria da regulação da prescrição farmacológica e possíveis ajustes na relação entre os formuladores e executores de políticas do município e os conjuntos dos prescritores, tendo como centro das preocupações a segurança do usuário do SUS e a melhoria do acesso a fármacos com a melhor relação benefício-risco.<br>Introduction. Since 2006, the Assistência Farmacêutica da Coordenação de Atenção Básica da Secretaria Municipal da Saúde de São Paulo (SMS-SP) (Coordination on Pharmaceutical Care of the Municipal Health Secretariat of São Paulo) received about 125 requests yearly, on average,before2011, and after this year, 250 requests yearly for drugs not listed in the Relação Municipal de Medicamentos Essenciais (Municipal Register of Essential Medicines) REMUME-SP, demand whose object of study was not known in a systematic nature and whose implications regarding regulation were not studied under the framework of rational access to drugs. Object of the study. Evaluate requests for pharmaceuticals not listed in REMUME-SP, from 2008 to 2013. Method. Analysis of documents, according to medical practice based on scientific evidence, of request for products not available in REMUMESP, prescribed via Form Justification for the purchase of drugs not listed in REMUME - SP, and generated from SMS-SP, during the studied period. Results. Analysis of processes arising from 1.174 requests, 2008 to 2013, has brought to the non-permit of acquisition of 58,9 per cent (N=692), due to the following reasons: 1- there is not enough evidence in the literature, 15 (17 per cent ); 2- listed in Remume-SP, 11 (1 per cent ); 3- available in SES-SP, 56 (8 per cent ); 4- insufficient clinical information, 151 (22 per cent ); 5- supplied by CACON, 10 (1 per cent ); 6- unnecessary drug, 18 (3 per cent ); 7- indication of other drug, or other concentration of the requested drug, or other device, or still other treatment (surgical, for example), 169 (24 per cent ); 8- solicitation of report from related technical area, 62 (9 per cent ); patient not cared by the municipal health service, 12 (2 per cent ); 10- prescription mistakes, 39 (6 per cent ); 11- there is not enough evidence in the literature and not sufficient clinical information, 49 (7 per cent ). The reasons of the non-acceptance of the medical requests are presented in examples, from the main pharmaceutical categories which were requested, considering its variety, all documented in the literature and extracted from the processes of solicitation. Recommendations on the improvement of medical prescription are done and possible arrangements of prescription in the relationship among policy makers and executors in the municipality and the sets of prescribers, whose main concern is the safety of users of SUS and improving access to drugs with the best benefit-risk relation.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-08-17T13:18:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 André Nardy.pdf: 1963684 bytes, checksum: a82de1fcbde856de94ee26d68549f774 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T13:18:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 André Nardy.pdf: 1963684 bytes, checksum: a82de1fcbde856de94ee26d68549f774 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-04<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES<br>The objective of this work is to contribute to the discussion of culture as an independent variable in Finance. The relationship between economic and financial attitudes and conceptual models of culture is analyzed; so as the relationship between financial behaviors of saving and borrowing and conceptual models of culture, from the Brazilian sample of the World Values Survey in its last available wave (2014). Individuals are considered as social agents and their context is considered in this analysis. The models of culture tested are based on the literature of anthropology, sociology, psychology, finance and economics: Religious denomination, Religious practices, Practices and denominations, Religious values and denominations, Schwartz personal values scale and Capitalist Culture and Hierarchism. Binary logistic regression is used as the main analysis tool. There is evidence of a Protestant ethic for attitude toward work and wealth generation for the individuals of this denomination, in different models, even in a historically Catholic society such as Brazil. The same is not true for evangelicals. Social capital, in its dimensions of trust in group, network connectivity and cooperation also present statistical significance in the lastly mentioned model. Hierarchism presents little evidence of contributing to the understanding of attitudes and behaviors analyzed<br>O objetivo do presente trabalho é contribuir para a discussão da cultura como variável independente em estudos de Finanças. Analisa-se a relação entre atitudes econômicas e financeiras e modelos conceituais de cultura; e entre comportamentos financeiros de economizar e tomar emprestado e modelos conceituais de cultura, a partir da amostra brasileira da Pesquisa Mundial de Valores em sua última onda disponível (2014). Considera-se os indivíduos como agentes sociais e seu contexto para esta análise. Os modelos de cultura testados baseiam-se na literatura de antropologia, sociologia, psicologia, finanças e economia: Denominação religiosa, Práticas religiosas, Práticas e denominações religiosas, Valores e denominações religiosas, Escala de valores pessoais de Schwartz e Cultura Capitalista e Hierarquismo. Emprega-se regressão logística binária como principal ferramenta de análise. Verifica-se indícios de uma ética protestante para a atitude perante trabalho e geração de riqueza para os indivíduos desta denominação, em diferentes modelos, mesmo em sociedade historicamente católica como a brasileira. O mesmo não se verifica para evangélicos. Capital social, em suas dimensões de confiança in group, conectividade em rede e cooperação também apresentam significância estatística no último modelo citado. Hierarquismo apresenta poucos indícios de contribuir para o entendimento das atitudes e comportamentos analisados

Submitted by DANIEL MARTINS SILVA null (daniel_m105@hotmail.com) on 2016-06-13T12:09:12Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação-Final-2016.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-06-15T19:30:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_dm_me_mar.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-15T19:30:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 silva_dm_me_mar.pdf: 1232731 bytes, checksum: a3b1a459a153bdc0df5be33dcfc2b83a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-17<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)<br>Entre o fim do governo George W. Bush e o primeiro mandato do governo Barack Obama os Estados Unidos iniciou sua participação na Parceria Transpacífica (PTP). A fim de entender as motivações norte-americanas para este acordo regional de comércio, a dissertação trabalhou com a hipótese de que a evolução do novo regionalismo asiático, a partir dos anos 2000, teve um peso significativo na estratégia estadunidense de comércio. Destacam-se a ASEAN+3 e a ASEAN+6, grupos liderados pelo Japão e China para incrementar a integração econômica do Leste Asiático. Diante da emergência desta configuração, os Estados Unidos estiveram excluídos do processo. Para averiguar esta afirmação utilizamos a plataforma Inside Trade, entrevistas e notícias de jornais relevantes; arquivos da Casa Branca (relatórios dos principais órgãos decisórios e discursos); relatórios anuais e outros documentos do USTR; além de arquivos do Departamento de Estado (em especial do Escritório de Assuntos do Leste Asiático e Pacífico). A análise do material empírico revelou que o receio de exclusão dos Estados Unidos e da predominância da China como ator político no comércio intra-asiático foram questões frequentemente levantadas pelo empresariado e policy-makers da política comercial norte-americana. Além de circunstâncias regionais, o envolvimento dos Estados Unidos no acordo se explica pelo seu interesse em moldar as regras que conformam o regime global de comércio. Demonstramos que expandir a presença política do país na Ásia-Pacífico e constranger a emergência chinesa eram tarefas fundamentais para alcançar este objetivo.<br>Between the end of George W. Bush’s government and Barack Obama’s first term, the United States began its participation in Transpacific Partnership (TPP). In order to understand american motivation for this regional trade agreement, our hypothesis supported that new asian regionalism dynamics had a weight in US trade policy strategy. We highlitgh ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6, groups leading for Japan and China to increase economic integration of East Asia. In this configuration, the United States had been excluded. Aiming to check this, we use the “Inside Trade” platform, interviews and news of important newspapers; the White House archives (reports of the main agencies and discourses); annual reports and other documents from USTR; also US Department of State’s archives (especially the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs). The empirical analysis reveal that fear of United States’ exclusion and the China’s predominance as political actor in intra-asian trade were often raised by business and policy makers of US trade policy. Beyond regional reasons, US envolvement is explained by its interest to shape the rules conforming global trade regime. We demonstrate that raising US political presence and constraining chinese emergence were fundamental tasks to achieve this goal.

Mitt syfte med undersökningen är att genomföra en kvalitativ textanalys av Sofia Nordins trilogi för att undersöka dess lämplighet att undervisa om värdegrundsfrågor i årskurs 4–6.   Skolinspektionens granskning (2012) finner brister i att integrera värdegrundsuppdraget i ämnet svenska. Bland annat beror det på brister i förståelsen hos lärare kring vilka skönlitterära texter som kan användas och vad i texterna som kan ge möjlighet till undervisning.   Undersökningen syftar därför till att finna lämplig text vilket genom arbetet visat sig vara dystopi. Undersökningens kvalitativa textanalys svarar mot frågeställningarna om mörker, demokrati, solidaritet och mänskliga rättigheter för att undersöka möjligheten till undervisning om värdegrunden.   Analysens resultat finner goda möjligheter för trilogin att användas som ingång för värdegrundsarbete i årskurs 4–6.<br>The aim of this paper is to make a qualitative text analysis of the trilogy by Sofia Nordin based on its possibility to teach about the fundamental values in school for grade 4-6.   The Swedish School inspectorate shows in an examination (2012) that the Swedish primary school are shortcoming in the mission to teach about the fundamental values in the subject swedish. Some causes they mention are the teachers lack of understanding what sort of literature they should use, and what in the literature to use.   This study is therefore aiming to find a suitable text which by the work turned out to be a dystopia. By qualitative text analysis the question at issues examines to answer the aim of this paper. They are the darkness, democracy, human rights and solidarity. In the results the paper has found a good potential for the novels to teach about the fundamental values in grade 4-6.

La Relazione sull'attività sanitaria e scientifica dell'Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Meyer è uno strumento prezioso di condivisione e diffusione delle informazioni che sintetizzano il modo di lavorare, i risultati e le linee di miglioramento su cui bisogna particolarmente impegnarsi. È uno strumento di conoscenza e di valutazione rivolto, quindi, sia all'interno, sia all'esterno dell'Ospedale. Uno strumento dinamico, che deve perfezionarsi, contestualmente ai miglioramenti perseguiti dall'Ospedale.

The MAVEBA Workshop proceedings, held on a biannual basis, collect the scientific papers presented both as oral and poster contributions, during the conference. The main subjects are: development of theoretical and mechanical models as an aid to the study of main phonatory dysfunctions, as well as the biomedical engineering methods for the analysis of voice signals and images, as a support to clinical diagnosis and classification of vocal pathologies. The Workshop has the sponsorship of: Ente Cassa Risparmio di Firenze, COST Action 2103, Biomedical Signal Processing and Control Journal (Elsevier Eds.), IEEE Biomedical Engineering Soc. Special Issues of International Journals have been, and will be, published, collecting selected papers from the conference.

Questo libro, nato ‘in corso d’opera’, raccoglie molte delle presentazioni pubbliche del libro di Giacomo Becattini La coscienza dei luoghi. Il territorio come soggetto corale, pubblicato da Donzelli nel 2015. In esse una grande passione teorica, metodologica, di prospettive concrete e anche di critica ha attraversato gli interventi, dal momento che il testo di Becattini ha sollevato problemi di grande rilievo, per le prospettive dello sviluppo locale, proiettandole sul futuro stesso delle società umane in un periodo di crisi e di grande incertezza sulle vie globali da percorrere. La ricchezza, la pluralità di accenti e la profondità del dibattito che si è sviluppato assicurano alla raccolta una ‘vita propria’ anche rispetto al libro d’origine. La scomparsa di Becattini, avvenuta proprio mentre si concludeva l’editing del volume, lascia un enorme vuoto ma stimola ancor più al dibattito su questo affresco, dipinto a più mani sulla traccia della sua recente opera.

In 1980 Froebel, Heinrichs and Kreye published the English-language The New International Division of Labour, trying to highlight the consequences of market reorganization after the crisis of the mid 1970s, which was soon to transform into so-called globalization. A third of a century later, the "fantastic adventure" of market integration seems to have been crystallized by the 2007-2008 crisis, opening a further period of great instability. But the geography of wealth production has transformed radically and appears unrecognizable to the early-80s scholar. In a framework of great social, political and cultural change, China, a country at the time defined as an "economic dwarf", is the second largest economy on the planet and has become its "factory". The standardizing concept of "Third World" having vanished, some former colonial economies have undertaken rapid growth processes, while others have ruinously accentuated their underdevelopment. The traditionally advanced regions, then defined as "industrial", have opened out into trajectories defined, vice versa, as "post-industrial", some consolidating their competitive edge and others sparking lengthy declines.

Nel 1865 furono emanate le leggi di unificazione amministrativa del Regno d’Italia. In occasione del centocinquantenario, il Dipartimento di Scienze Giuridiche dell’Università di Firenze ha organizzato un progetto di studi sulle trasformazioni che nell’ultimo cinquantennio hanno interessato gli apparati e le attività dell’amministrazione della Repubblica, vista nel suo articolato governo locale e nella sua appartenenza all’Unione europea. Le ricerche hanno coinvolto, nell’arco di quasi due anni, più di centocinquanta studiosi di Università italiane. I risultati sono stati presentati il 15 e 16 ottobre del 2015 a Firenze, la città che centocinquant’anni prima era stata Capitale d’Italia e che nel 1965 aveva ospitato il convegno celebrativo del centenario delle stesse leggi di unificazione amministrativa. Gli studi condotti sono ora pubblicati in forma definitiva e organizzati in otto volumi. Piano dell’opera I. L’organizzazione delle pubbliche amministrazioni tra Stato nazionale e integrazione europea, a cura di Roberto Cavallo Perin, Aristide Police, Fabio Saitta II. La coesione politico-territoriale, a cura di Gabriella De Giorgi Cezzi, Pier Luigi Portaluri III. La giuridificazione, a cura di Barbara Marchetti, Mauro Renna IV. La tecnificazione, a cura di Stefano Civitarese Matteucci, Luisa Torchia V. L’intervento pubblico nell’economia, a cura di Maurizio Cafagno, Francesco Manganaro VI. Unità e pluralismo culturale, a cura di Edoardo Chiti, Gianluca Gardini, Aldo Sandulli VII. La giustizia amministrativa come servizio (tra effettività ed efficienza), a cura di Gian Domenico Comporti VIII. Cittadinanze amministrative, a cura di Antonio Bartolini, Alessandra Pioggia

Este libro es producto de los resultados obtenidos en la primera fase terminada del proyecto y línea de investigación denominada: “Análisis y Desarrollo de Indicadores para Medir el Crimen Económico y Responsabilidad Social Empresarial”, el cual ha sido financiado en su tercer periodo de desarrollo por la Corporación Universitaria Americana durante el periodo enero de 2016 y diciembre de 2018. El trabajo investigativo presentado aquí se basa en la experiencia de aproximadamente 6 años de investigaciones documentales y participaciones de los autores como ponentes en varios congresos internacionales en Latinoamérica, específicamente en: Brasil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, México y Venezuela. Esto ha permitido intercambiar interesantes puntos de vista con colegas expertos que se relacionan con el tema del crimen económico y la responsabilidad social empresarial, gubernamental y civil. Los antecedentes reflexivos que contiene este libro, se inician en el periodo 2009-2011 con cuatro trabajos presentados por Ibarra Alberto en trabajo conjunto con Echeverri Camilo: 1. Artículo del 2009: “Retrospectiva de la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial a través del Desarrollo del Pensamiento Económico”, Revista Universo Contabil de la Fundación Universitaria de Blumenau, Brasil; 2. La ponencia del 2009: “Correlación entre Información Empresarial y Objetivos Corporativos con base a la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial”, XIV Congreso Internacional de Contaduría, Administración e Informática en la UNAM, México; 3. La ponencia del 2010: “Algunos Fundamentos sobre la Responsabilidad Social en la Empresa Privada considerando el Desarrollo del Pensamiento Económico” , V Reunión Internacional de Gestión y Desarrollo sobre Responsabilidad Social y Emprendimiento, Universidad de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brasil; 4. El artículo del 2011: “Índices para Medir Empresas Sostenibles con base a la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial vs Crimen Económico desde un Enfoque de la Teoría Behaviorista”, Revista Civilizar de Empresa y Economía de Universidad Sergio Arboleda, Bogotá, Colombia. El segundo periodo del desarrollo conceptual del trabajo de investigación comprende el periodo 2012-2014 con cuatro ponencias en congresos internacionales: 5. “La RSE como Estrategia de Crecimiento Económico”, XXV Congreso Latinoamericano de Estrategia, Universidad Metropolitana Castro Carazo, Costa Rica 2012. 6. “Análisis del Observatorio de la Globalización sobre Crimen Económico y Crisis de Cultura de Legalidad a Nivel Mundial (Soborno, Extorción, Corrupción y Fraude Empresarial)”, II Congreso The Global Compact de las Naciones Unidas 2012, Cámara de Comercio de Bogotá. 7. “Análisis Comparativo de los Indicadores e Informes de Crimen Financiero y Económico en el Mundo y Latinoamérica vs RSE.” XII International Finance Conference 2012, de American Academy of Financial Management, Universidad EAFIT Medellín, Colombia. 8. “Análisis del Crimen Financiero en Entornos de Crisis Financiera”. International Finance Conference 2014”, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. El tercer periodo comprende los años 2015-2016, y los autores trabajaron y presentaron 9 ponencias y un artículo de reflexión, donde gran parte de estos trabajos se llevaron a cabo en compañía de otros investigadores con excelente capacidad analítica sobre el tema. Entre estos académicos está la colaboración de Andrés Tibaquira y Alexander Castrillo. Los trabajos son: 9. “Estructuras Conceptuales del Crimen Económico y la RSE para desarrollar un Análisis Integral de Empresas Socialmente Responsables”, XXVIII Congreso Latinoamericano de Estrategia SLADE 2015, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellín, Colombia. 10. “Desarrollo Sostenible con RSE versus Corrupción y Fraude Corporativo: Sus Indicadores e Índices de Medición”. Conferencia Magistral ante la Contraloría General de Medellín Colombia y Red de Transparencia”. 11. “Tres Intangibles Correlacionados con el Entorno Organizacional para Alcanzar Empresas Sostenibles y Éticas: Capital Social, Capital Intelectual y Responsabilidad Social”. XX Congreso Internacional de Contaduría, Administración e Informática 2015. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 12. “Crimen Económico y Responsabilidad Social Empresarial”. Instituto Tecnológico Nacional de México, Conferencia Magistral ante el Consejo de Investigación. 13. “Análisis Internacional sobre el Crimen Económico por países”. Conferencista Magistral y Organizador Técnico del I Congreso Internacional de Crimen Económico y Fraude Financiero y Contable. Corporación Universitaria Remington, Medellín, Colombia. En el 2016, se presentaron las siguientes ponencias: 14. “Hacia Una Nueva Taxonomía del Delito y Crimen Económico”, II Congreso Internacional de Economía, Contabilidad y Administración”, Universidad de la Habana, Cuba.; 15. Ibarra Alberto y Tibaquira Andrés: “Hacia una Nueva Taxonomía del Delito y Crimen Económico para incrementar la RSE”. International Finance Conference 2016 Chile, Universidad de Valparaíso Chile y Universidad de Santiago de Chile. 16. Ibarra Mares Alberto y Tibaquira Cuervo Andrés: “Objetivos Empresariales Informales y su Influencia en Fraudes dentro del Sistema de Información Contable”, V Encuentro Internacional de Investigación y Espíritu Empresarial. Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander, Ocaña Santander Colombia. 17. Ibarra Alberto, Echeverri Camilo y Ramírez Carlos: “Antecedentes y Actualidad del Desarrollo del Gobierno Corporativo en Latinoamérica”, II Congreso Internacional de Crimen Económico y Fraude Financiero y Contable. Conferencista Magistral, Corporación Universitaria Remington, Medellín Colombia. 18. Ibarra Alberto, Pérez Luis Alfonso y Garzón Manuel (2015): “Código de ética empresarial para las Pymes: Marco de Referencia para la Sostenibilidad y Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE)”. Revista Espacios. Venezuela. A partir de la experiencia adquirida, el objetivo de los autores en este trabajo fue sintetizar una serie de conceptos técnicos fundamentales sobre el crimen económico y sus principales componentes, con el fin de conformar una sólida taxonomía y metodología para medir las percepciones sobre los diferentes tipos de crimen económico en diferentes países de Latinoamérica, iniciando por Colombia, ello permitirá adaptar y mejorar algunos indicadores que se han estandarizado en el ámbito mundial para medir cualitativa y cuantitativamente las variables del crimen económico entre países, instituciones, sectores y personas. En el capítulo 1 y 2 se inicia con un análisis documental sobre cuáles son las principales variables que se toman en cuenta en la literatura especializada sobre este fenómeno económico negativo que registran las empresas, instituciones y países. Para ello, se partió de una taxonomía de 17 variables que proporcionaron información acerca de Transparencia Internacional (TI) y sobre el lenguaje del crimen económico para determinar ocho categorías o tipologías de crimen económico, a las cuales se les denominó taxonomía. En el capítulo 3 se da a conocer una muestra representativa de algunas de las principales organizaciones que se dedican al estudio y combate de delitos económicos y fraudes. Las primeras instituciones que incluimos por su prestigio y seriedad sobre el tema, fueron: Transparencia Internacional (TI), La Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU), PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC), Ernst and Young (EY), KPMG y Deloitte and Touche. Además, consideramos datos y reportes del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y el Banco Mundial (BM). En los capítulos cuarto, quinto y sexto, analizamos respectivamente el crimen económico desde sus tres perspectivas o niveles: 1.) Por país, 2.) Por empresas, y 3.) Por personas. Por último, en el capítulo séptimo damos unas conclusiones que consideramos nos dan una primera visión para un análisis metodológico y con mayor rigor científico sobre el crimen económico En el capítulo séptimo incluimos las conclusiones finales basadas en el marco teórico sobre la teoría marginalista y teoría behaviorista, que nos permite fundamentar nuestras reflexiones y conclusiones. También adicionamos las ideas de Francis Fukuyama con respecto al concepto de confianza y capital social, que son componentes importantes de la ética y responsabilidad social empresarial. Incluimos además unas ideas sobre la teoría institucionalista que determina en gran medida el comportamiento de un individuo dependiendo del tipo de institución en dónde se desarrolla.

Masayuki Inoue of the University of Tokyo oxidized (Tetrahedron Lett. 2011, 52, 4654) the alkyl benzene 1 to the nitrate 2, which could be carried on to the amide 5, the nitrile 6, the alcohol 7, or the azide 8. X. Peter Zhang of the University of South Florida developed (Chem. Sci. 2012, 2, 2361) a Co catalyst for the cyclization of 7 to 8. Justin Du Bois of Stanford University reported (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 17207) the oxidative cyclization of the sulfamate corresponding to 7 using a Ru catalyst. Seongmin Lee of the University of Texas showed (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 4766) that the oxidative cyclization of 9 gave the amine 10 with high diastereoselectivity. Fabrizio Fabris of the Università di Venezia used (Tetrahedron Lett. 2011, 52, 4478) a Ru catalyst to oxidize 11 to the ketone 12. Ying-Yeung Yeung of the National University of Singapore found (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 4308) that hypervalent iodine was sufficient to oxidize 13 to the ketone 14. Huanfeng Jiang of the South China University of Technology methoxycarbonylated (Chem. Commun. 2011, 47, 12224) 15 under Pd catalysis to give 16. Professor Inoue found (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 5928) that the oxidative cyanation of 17 proceeded with high diastereoselectivity to give 18. Mamoru Tobisu and Naoto Chatani of Osaka University activated (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 12984) 19 with a Pd catalyst to enable coupling with 20 to give 21. Rh-mediated intramolecular insertion is well known to proceed efficiently into secondary and tertiary C–H bonds. A. Srikrishna of the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore found (Synlett 2011, 2343) that insertion into the methyl C–H of 22 also worked smoothly to deliver 23. The macrocyclic oligopeptide valinomycin 24 has nine isopropyl groups. It is remarkable, as observed (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 5096) by Cosimo Annese of the Università di Bari and Paul G. Williard of Brown University, that direct oxidation of 24 with methyl(trifluoromethyl) dioxirane in acetone specifically hydroxylated at 8 (45.5%, our numbering), 7 (28.5%), and 6 (26%).

Zheng Huang of the Shanghai Institute of Organic Chemistry (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2014, 136, 15501) and Zhan Lu of Zhejiang University (Org. Lett. 2014, 16, 6452) effected enantioselective hydroboration of α-alkyl styrenes, as illustrated by the conversion of 1 to 2. Stephen L. Buchwald of MIT devised (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2014, 136, 15913) a Cu catalyst for the anti-Markovnikov hydroamination of 3 with 4 to give 5. John F. Hartwig of the University of California, Berkeley developed (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2014, 53, 8691, 12172) an Ir catalyst for the enantioselective coupling of 6 with 7 to give 8.

Tsutomu Katsuki of Kyushu University devised (Org. Lett. 2012, 14, 4658) a Ru catalyst for the enantioselective aziridination of vinyl ketones such as 1. David W.C. MacMillan of Princeton University added (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2012, 134, 11400) 3 to the alkene 4 under single electron conditions to give 5 with high stereocontrol. Barry M. Trost of Stanford University effected (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2012, 134, 4941) the Pd-catalyzed addition of 7 to an imine 6 to give the pyrrolidine 8. More recently, he used (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2013, 135, 2459) this approach to construct pyrrolidines containing defined quaternary centers. Christoph Schneider of the Universität Liepzig employed (Org. Lett. 2012, 14, 5972) an organocatalyst to control the relative and absolute configuration not only of the nitrogen-containing ring, but also of the stereogenic center on the sidechain of the pyrrolidone 11. Wei Wang of Lanzhou University also used (Adv. Synth. Catal. 2012, 354, 2635) an organocatalyst to assemble the pyrrolidine 14bearing two stereogenic centers. Using a gold catalyst, Constantin Czekelius of the Freie Universität Berlin constructed (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2012, 51, 11149) the pyrrolidine 16 having a defined quaternary center. Motomu Kanai of the University of Tokyo used (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2012, 134, 17019) a Cu catalyst to prepare both pyrrolidines and piperidines by condensing the precursor protected aminal 17 with a ketone 18. Wolfgang Kroutil of the University of Graz effected (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2012, 51, 6713) selective enzymatic reductive amination of the methyl ketone of 20 to give, after cyclization and hydrogenation, the 2,6-dialkyl piperidine 21. Ramakrishna G. Bhat of the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research showed (J. Org. Chem. 2012, 77, 11349) that the reductive cyclization of the amino acid derivative could proceed with high diastereoselectivity to give 23. Peter O’Brien of the University of York and Iain Coldham of the University of Sheffield prepared (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2012, 134, 5300) both pyrrolidines and piperidines by metalation of an aryl derivative such as 24, followed by alkylation. Shital K. Chattopadhyay of the University of Kalyani cyclized (J. Org. Chem. 2012, 77, 11056) the nitrone 26 to 27 with high diastereoselectivity.

The catalytic reduction of the alkene 1 gave the cis-fused product (not illustrated), by kinetic H₂ addition to the less congested face of the alkene. Ryan A. Shenvi of Scripps La Jolla found (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2014, 136, 1300) conditions for stepwise HAT, con­verting 1 to the thermodynamically-favored trans-fused ketone 2. Seth B. Herzon of Yale University devised (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2014, 136, 6884) a protocol for the reduc­tion, mediated by 4, of the double bond of a haloalkene 3 to give the saturated halide 5. The Shenvi conditions also reduced a haloalkene to the saturated halide. Daniel J. Weix of the University of Rochester and Patrick L. Holland, also of Yale University, established (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2014, 136, 945) conditions for the kinetic isomerization of a terminal alkene 6 to the Z internal alkene 7. Christoforos G. Kokotos of the University of Athens showed (J. Org. Chem. 2014, 79, 4270) that the ketone 9, used catalytically, markedly accelerated the Payne epoxidation of 8 to 10. Note that Helena M. C. Ferraz of the Universidade of São Paulo reported (Tetrahedron Lett. 2000, 41, 5021) several years ago that alkene epoxidation was also easily carried out with DMDO generated in situ from acetone and oxone. Theodore A. Betley of Harvard University prepared (Chem. Sci. 2014, 5, 1526) the allylic amine 12 by reacting the alkene 11 with 1-azidoadamantane in the presence of an iron catalyst. Rodney A. Fernandes of the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay developed (J. Org. Chem. 2014, 79, 5787) efficient conditions for the Wacker oxida­tion of a terminal alkene 6 to the methyl ketone 13. Yong-Qiang Wang of Northwest University oxidized (Org. Lett. 2014, 16, 1610) the alkene 6 to the enone 14. Peili Teo of the National University of Singapore devised (Chem. Commun. 2014, 50, 2608) conditions for the Markovnikov hydration of the alkene 6 to the alcohol 15. Internal alkenes were inert under these conditions, but Yoshikazo Kitano of the Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology effected (Synthesis 2014, 46, 1455) the Markovnikov amination (not illustrated) of more highly substituted alkenes.

Shuichi Nakamura of the Nagoya Institute of Technology reduced (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2011, 50, 2249) the α-oxo ester 1 to 2 with high ee. Günter Helmchen of the Universität-Heidelberg optimized (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 2072) the Ir*-catalyzed rearrangement of 3 to the allylic alcohol 4. D. Tyler McQuade of Florida State University effected (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 2410) the enantioselective allylic substitution of 5 to give the secondary allyl boronate, which was then oxidized to 6. Kazuaki Kudo of the University of Tokyo developed (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 3498) the tandem oxidation of the aldehyde 7 to the α-alkoxy acid 8. Takashi Ooi of Nagoya University prepared (Synlett 2011, 1265) the secondary amine 10 by the enantioselective addition of an aniline to the nitroalkene 9. Yixin Lu of the National University of Singapore assembled (Org. Lett. 2011, 13, 2638) the α-quaternary amine 13 by the addition of the aldehyde 11 to the azodicarboxylate 10. Chan-Mo Yu of Sungkyunkwan University added (Chem. Commun. 2011, 47, 3811) the enantiomerically pure 2-borylbutadiene 15 to the aldehyde 14 to give 16 in high ee. Because the allene is readily dragged out to the terminal alkyne, this is also a protocol for the enantioselective homopropargylation of an aldehyde. Lin Pu of the University of Virginia devised (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2011, 50, 2368) a protocol for the enantioselective addition of 17 to the aldehyde 18 to give 19. Xiaoming Feng of Sichuan University developed (Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2011, 50, 2573) a Mg catalyst for the enantioselective addition of 21 to the α-oxo ester 20. Tomonori Misaka and Takashi Sugimura of the University of Hyogo added (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 5695) 23 to 24 to give the Z-amide 25 in high ee. Marc L. Snapper and Amir H. Hoveyda of Boston College developed (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 3332) a Cu catalyst for the enantioselective allylation of the imine 26. Jonathan Clayden of the University of Manchester effected (Org. Lett. 2010, 12, 5442) the enantioselective rearrangement of the amide 29 to the α-quaternary amine 30.

There continue to be new developments in transition metal- and lanthanide-mediated construction of carbocycles. Although a great deal has been published on the asymmetric cyclopropanation of styrene, relatively little had been reported for other classes of alkenes. Tae-Jeong Kim of Kyungpook National University has devised (Tetrahedron Lett. 2007, 48, 8014) a Ru catalyst for the cyclopropanation of simple α-olefins such as 1. X. Peter Zhang of the University of South Florida has developed (J. Am.Chem. Soc. 2007, 129, 12074) a Co catalyst for the cyclopropanation of alkenes such as 5 having electron-withdrawing groups. Alexandre Alexakis of the Université de Genève has reported(Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2007, 46, 7462) simple monophosphine ligands that enabled enantioselective conjugate addition to prochiral enones, even difficult substrates such as 8. Seunghoon Shin of Hanyang University has found (Organic Lett. 2007, 9, 3539) an Au catalyst that effected the diastereoselective cyclization of 10 to the cyclohexene 11, and Radomir N. Saicic of the University of Belgrade has carried out (Organic Lett. 2007, 9, 5063), via transient enamine formation, the diastereoselective cyclization of 12 to the cyclohexane 13. Alois Fürstner of the Max-Planck- Institut, Mülheim has devised (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2007, 129, 14836) a Rh catalyst that cyclized the aldehyde 14 to the cycloheptenone 15. Some of the most exciting investigations reported in recent months have been directed toward the direct diastereo- and enantioselective preparation of polycarbocyclic products. Rai-Shung Liu of National Tsing-Hua University has extended (J. Org. Chem. 2007, 72, 567) the intramolecular Pauson-Khand cyclization to the epoxy enyne 16, leading to the 5-5 product 17. Michel R. Gagné of the University of North Carolina has devised (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2007, 129, 11880) a Pt catalyst that smoothly cyclized the polyene 18 to the 6-6 product 19. Yoshihiro Sato of Hokkaido University and Miwako Mori of the Health Science University of Hokkaido have described (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2007, 129, 7730) a Ru catalyst for the cyclization of 20 to the 5-6-5 product 21. Each of these processes proceeded with high diastereocontrol.

Em 2016, Engiel et al. encontraram 10 projetos de lei, altamente relacionados à transparência, usando técnicas de mineração de texto e uma base de conhecimento sobre Transparência. Em 2017, Portugal et al. usaram os comentários feitos sobre os 10 projetos de lei; dos 164 comentários, 6 projetos foram identificados com uma tendência ou demanda por transparência. O trabalho de 2018 explora os comentários a partir de outra perspectiva, nós queremos saber quais são os comentários mais negativos usando análise de sentimentos, através da ferramenta SentiStrength. Como resultado, dos 164 comentários, 60 foram classificados como muito negativos. No entanto, seu desempenho não é bom quando se lida com o conjunto de comentários dos cidadãos que aprovam os projetos de lei. Uma análise qualitativa é apresentada para esse subconjunto de comentários.

La crisis económica y financiera que comenzó en el año 2007 y en la que aún estamos inmersos ha provocado numerosos cambios socioeconómicos en España. El aumento de la tasa de paro y la reducción de la renta disponible por hogar están provocando que los hogares españoles reduzcan sus gastos medios anuales. El objetivo de la ponencia es investigar cómo la crisis económica y financiera ha afectado a los hogares españoles y de qué manera esto está afectando a la forma en la que los españoles se desplazan. Para ello se analizarán los gastos de los hogares en los años 2007 (justo al inicio de la crisis) y 2012, a nivel nacional y en 6 Comunidades Autónomas. Se considerarán los gastos en general, centrándonos en los gastos dedicados al transporte. Los datos provienen de la encuesta de presupuestos familiares que se realiza anualmente a una muestra de hogares españoles. La investigación se enmarca en el proyecto CIME, La Crise et ses Impacts sur la Mobilité en Espagne. Mesures, analyses et enseignements pour le cas français, financiado por el gobierno francés y desarrollado por un equipo franco-español. Los principales resultados que surgen son que, en general, los hogares españoles reducen sus gastos en transporte personal (compra y uso de coche) entre 2007 y 2012, mientras que en el caso del gasto en servicios de transporte público, los resultados son más dependientes del nivel de renta de los hogares y de la región analizada.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3470

Resumen: A finales del 2018 el CAD de Tetuán comenzó un programa específico de chem_sex con la creación de un grupo psicoterapéutico para trabajar las características propias de su proceso adictivo y facilitar la adherencia al tratamiento. En este periodo hemos atendido 61 pacientes han solicitado tratamiento por trastorno por consumo de estimulantes. Son de origen español un 50%, 40% América Latina y 10% del resto de Europa. Los grupos de edad mayoritarios son de 26/35 años, 36% y de 36/45 años, 39%. En un 47% consumen por via IV, la sustancia más consumida es la mefedrona 72% y el 55% hacen policonsumo. El 78% ha recibido tratamiento previo, en recurso de adicciones o de salud mental y el 86% tiene patología dual. El 73% tienen VIH, 28% VHC, 49% otras ITS. Debido a la pandemia en abril comenzamos la modalidad online. Desde el inicio el grupo tiene continuidad semanal y presencia 6 /10 participantes. El 80% participa en ambas modalidades por indicación de los profesionales para aumentar la conciencia de problema y conseguir abstinencia. El 20% que no ha participado de forma online es por la falta de seguridad en el sistema o de privacidad en casa. Aunque el 60% prefieren la modalidad presencial por el grado de implicación y la calidez; el grupo online da una serie de facilidades que ha hecho que el número de participantes aumente. Esas ventajas son la facilidad de acceder desde cualquier lugar y no perder tiempo en los desplazamientos (48%), participar cuando no puede acudir presencial (39%), y libertad para hablar de ciertos temas (13%). Por lo que el cambio de modalidad no es sólo un modelo válido, exclusivamente, en época de crisis. Bibliografía: EMIS_2017_España; 2020 PNS -Documento_abordaje_chem_sex (Raúl Soriano); 2016 Mefedrona y chemsex. Análisis descriptivo de una muestra de pacientes en Madrid; 2019 Programa de educación y salud sexual para usuarios de chemsex: una respuesta coordinada desde la ONG Apoyo Positivo y el Instituto de Adicciones de Madrid. 2019 Chem_sex origins of the word. David Stuart. 2019_Paper-slam-PlosOne

En mi investigación doctoral, titulada Estética de la proyección audiovisual. Asamblea, ficción y derecho a la ciudad en Poble Sec, Barcelona, exploré la práctica estética y pedagógica de dos colectivos surgidos tras el Movimiento 15M: el Cinefòrum de la Assemblea de Veïns i Veïnes de Poble Sec y el Taller de Ficció. Los dos empleaban la proyección de imágenes como principal herramienta de sus actividades, y lo hacían además mediante un dispositivo fluido y móvil que les permitía circular por diversos puntos de un mismo barrio. Miembro activo en ambos casos de estudio, el seguimiento etnográfico que llevé a cabo de sus respectivos devenires trataba de esclarecer un modo de existencia en común a través del “agenciamiento” (Deleuze y Guattari, 1988) de elementos humanos y no-humanos que lo sostenía y de la política sociomaterial que le daba forma. Sin embargo, al término de la escritura de la tesis empecé a valorar que el papel de los afectos había sido crucial en la constitución y desarrollo de tales agenciamientos, a la vez que desatendido en cierta medida por mi investigación. Esta presentación busca restituir esa falta a partir de autoras como Anna Hickey-Moody (2019), Lauren Berlant (2012) o Elizabeth de Freitas (2018). Concretamente, esta última ha calificado como “transindividual sympathy” al “proceso por el que se deviene otro sin borrar al otro” (p. 6). Se trata del ensamblaje afectivo de una serie de personas y cosas cuyas capacidades para obrar o modificar una situación resultan, y se mantienen, heterogéneas. O, en definitiva, de un hacer y sentir conjunto (es decir, alentado por otros y junto a otros). Ahora bien, ¿cómo se puede reconocer ese proceso en términos etnográficos y políticos? ¿Cuáles son sus rastros y sus evidencias, sus intensidades y sus modos de aparecer, sus aperturas y sus límites?

La Organización Internacional para las Migraciones (OIM) define a un migrante como cualquier persona que se desplaza, o se ha desplazado, a través de una frontera internacional o dentro de un país, fuera de su lugar habitual de residencia independientemente de: su situación jurídica, el carácter voluntario o involuntario del desplazamiento, las causas del desplazamiento; o la duración de su estancia. Se estima que al menos 272 millones de personas viven fuera de su país de origen, lo que representa al 3,5% de la población mundial. Venezuela es uno de los países con mayor flujo de migrantes de la actualidad, cifras de la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas para los Refugiados (ACNUR), estiman que más de 4 millones de venezolanos han abandonado el país debido a la crisis económica, política y social que atraviesa, convirtiéndolo en uno de los grupos de poblaciones desplazadas más grandes del mundo. Lo anterior, ha traído consecuencias significativas a la seguridad ciudadana de los países receptores, para el caso de Colombia, la Fiscalía General de la Nación reportó que, entre enero de 2017 y febrero de 2018 se registraron 1.869 capturas de ciudadanos venezolanos en flagrancia. Pese a esto, son escasos los estudios que analizan la relación entre crimen y migración. Es por esto, que se lleva a cabo una investigación mixta con un enfoque reflexivo no experimental, cuyo objetivo es contrastar el impacto de la migración masiva de ciudadanos venezolanos y su repercusión en la seguridad de los residentes del municipio de Cajicá.

A partir de un análisis que no es contable ni financiero sino económico, Rincón-Castro y Delgado-Rojas (2017) calculan para Colombia las tasas efectivas promedio de tributación sobre el consumo y los factores de producción trabajo y capital para el período comprendido entre 1994 y 2016. Para su estudio los autores utilizan las Cuentas Nacionales del DANE bases 1994 y 2005. El objetivo del presente estudio es realizar los mismos cálculos y con la misma metodología para el período 2005-2019, pero con las Cuentas Nacionales base 2015. Los resultados indican que el cambio de base produjo una reducción sustancial de las tasas efectivas del trabajo y del capital. Por ejemplo, para 2016, la tasa efectiva promedio del trabajo se redujo en 3 puntos porcentuales y del capital en 6 puntos porcentuales. ¿Cuál es la explicación? Los cambios de las bases tributarias que introdujo la nueva base de la contabilidad nacional, ya que la metodología de cálculo, las definiciones de las tasas, los parámetros y los supuestos no cambian. Entre 2017 y 2019 se suman los efectos de las leyes de reforma tributaria 819 de 2016 y 1943 de 2018. Los cálculos para 2019 indican que la tasa efectiva promedio de tributación del consumo es 12,7%, del trabajo es 18% y del capital es 15%. La desagregación de la tasa del trabajo muestra que la tasa de los salarios es 2,3%, de la nómina es 2,7% y de la seguridad social es 13%. La desagregación de la tasa del capital muestra que la de los hogares, quienes son los dueños del capital, es 3,8%, mientras que la de las sociedades es 21,1%. Así, los impuestos en Colombia no son efectivamente tan altos, pero tampoco tan bajos ni tan bien repartidos.

Dette er den afsluttende rapport om projektet ’Lær for Livet’, som er et projekt initieret af Egmont Fonden. Via blandt andet årlige intensive læringscamps og løbende mentorordninger som supplement til skolens læringsmiljø har projektet haft som overordnet mål at forbedre anbragte børns skolefaglige præstationer og herigennem øge antallet af anbragte unge, der starter på en ungdomsuddannelse efter skolen. I tilknytning til projektet blev etableret et følgeforskningsprojekt, som blev varetaget af DPU, Aarhus Universitet, der fulgte projektet i årene 2014-2020.

Wie groß sind die Wirkungen der Ausgaben für Forschung und Entwicklung (F&amp;E)? Mit F&amp;E bauen die Unternehmen ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit aus und sichern die künftigen Gewinne. Die Forschungsförderung regt die F&amp;E‐Investitionen an und verhilft innovativen Unternehmen zu mehr Wachstum. Mit ökonometrischen Matching‐Methoden vergleichen wir die Entwicklung von Unternehmen, die durch die FFG gefördert wurden, relativ zu nicht‐geförderten, aber sonst ganz ähnlichen Unternehmen. Unternehmen, die eine FFG‐Förderung erhalten, konnten im Zeitraum 2016‐2019 ihre Beschäftigung um 7,1 % steigern, andere vergleichbare Unternehmen nur um 0,4 %. Das Umsatzwachstum beträgt 10,8 % statt 2,5 %. Mit einem detaillierten Innovationsmodell der österreichischen Wirtschaft berechnen wir die makroökonomischen Effekte von F&amp;E‐Ausgaben. In einem Wachstumsszenario nach dem Muster der letzten zehn Jahre lassen sich etwa 28 % des Wachstums ursächlich auf die Wirkungen des Innovationssystems zurückführen. Dieser Effekt wird mit F&amp;E‐Ausgaben von nur 3,18 % des BIPs erzielt. Eine Erhöhung der öffentlichen F&amp;E‐Ausgaben um 1 Euro könnte langfristig das BIP um bis zu 6 Euro erhöhen. Allerdings haben F&amp;E‐Ausgaben lange Vorlaufzeiten, so dass die positiven Wirkungen nur allmählich eintreten. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Digitalisierung und Wirtschaftsstandort.

Ours is an age of pervasive political turbulence, and the scale of the challenge requires new thinking on politics as well as public ethics for our world. In Western countries, the specter of Islamophobia, alt-right populism, along with racialized violence has shaken public confidence in long-secure assumptions rooted in democracy, diversity, and citizenship. The tragic denouement of so many of the Arab uprisings together with the ascendance of apocalyptic extremists like Daesh and Boko Haram have caused an even greater sense of alarm in large parts of the Muslim-majority world. It is against this backdrop that M.A. Muqtedar Khan has written a book of breathtaking range and ethical beauty. The author explores the history and sociology of the Muslim world, both classic and contemporary. He does so, however, not merely to chronicle the phases of its development, but to explore just why the message of compassion, mercy, and ethical beauty so prominent in the Quran and Sunna of the Prophet came over time to be displaced by a narrow legalism that emphasized jurisprudence, punishment, and social control. In the modern era, Western Orientalists and Islamists alike have pushed the juridification and interpretive reification of Islamic ethical traditions even further. Each group has asserted that the essence of Islam lies in jurisprudence (fiqh), and both have tended to imagine this legal heritage on the model of Western positive law, according to which law is authorized, codified, and enforced by a leviathan state. “Reification of Shariah and equating of Islam and Shariah has a rather emaciating effect on Islam,” Khan rightly argues. It leads its proponents to overlook “the depth and heights of Islamic faith, mysticism, philosophy or even emotions such as divine love (Muhabba)” (13). As the sociologist of Islamic law, Sami Zubaida, has similarly observed, in all these developments one sees evidence, not of a traditionalist reassertion of Muslim values, but a “triumph of Western models” of religion and state (Zubaida 2003:135). To counteract these impoverishing trends, Khan presents a far-reaching analysis that “seeks to move away from the now failed vision of Islamic states without demanding radical secularization” (2). He does so by positioning himself squarely within the ethical and mystical legacy of the Qur’an and traditions of the Prophet. As the book’s title makes clear, the key to this effort of religious recovery is “the cosmology of Ihsan and the worldview of Al-Tasawwuf, the science of Islamic mysticism” (1-2). For Islamist activists whose models of Islam have more to do with contemporary identity politics than a deep reading of Islamic traditions, Khan’s foregrounding of Ihsan may seem unfamiliar or baffling. But one of the many achievements of this book is the skill with which it plumbs the depth of scripture, classical commentaries, and tasawwuf practices to recover and confirm the ethic that lies at their heart. “The Quran promises that God is with those who do beautiful things,” the author reminds us (Khan 2019:1). The concept of Ihsan appears 191 times in 175 verses in the Quran (110). The concept is given its richest elaboration, Khan explains, in the famous hadith of the Angel Gabriel. This tradition recounts that when Gabriel appeared before the Prophet he asked, “What is Ihsan?” Both Gabriel’s question and the Prophet’s response make clear that Ihsan is an ideal at the center of the Qur’an and Sunna of the Prophet, and that it enjoins “perfection, goodness, to better, to do beautiful things and to do righteous deeds” (3). It is this cosmological ethic that Khan argues must be restored and implemented “to develop a political philosophy … that emphasizes love over law” (2). In its expansive exploration of Islamic ethics and civilization, Khan’s Islam and Good Governance will remind some readers of the late Shahab Ahmed’s remarkable book, What is Islam? The Importance of Being Islamic (Ahmed 2016). Both are works of impressive range and spiritual depth. But whereas Ahmed stood in the humanities wing of Islamic studies, Khan is an intellectual polymath who moves easily across the Islamic sciences, social theory, and comparative politics. He brings the full weight of his effort to conclusion with policy recommendations for how “to combine Sufism with political theory” (6), and to do so in a way that recommends specific “Islamic principles that encourage good governance, and politics in pursuit of goodness” (8).

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard &amp; Poor’s Global Ratings (S&amp;P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.