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1
Smith, Bryan T., Tomas E. Castellanos, Andrew C. Winters, Corey M. Mead, Andrew R. Dean, and Richard L. Thompson. "Measured Severe Convective Wind Climatology and Associated Convective Modes of Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States, 2003–09." Weather and Forecasting 28, no. 1 (February 1, 2013): 229–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-12-00096.1.
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Abstract A severe thunderstorm wind gust climatology spanning 2003–09 for the contiguous United States is developed using measured Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) wind gusts. Archived severe report information from the National Climatic Data Center publication Storm Data and single-site volumetric radar data are used to identify severe wind gust observations [≥50 kt (25.7 m s−1)] associated with thunderstorms and to classify the convective mode of the storms. The measured severe wind gust distribution, comprising only 2% of all severe gusts, is examined with respect to radar-based convective modes. The convective mode scheme presented herein focuses on three primary radar-based storm categories: supercell, quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs), and disorganized. Measured severe gust frequency revealed distinct spatial patterns, where the high plains received the greatest number of gusts and occurred most often in the late spring and summer months. Severe wind gusts produced by supercells were most frequent over the plains, while those from QLCS gusts were most frequent in the plains and Midwest. Meanwhile, disorganized storms produced most of their severe gusts in the plains and Intermountain West. A reverse spatial distribution signal exists in the location between the maximum measured severe wind gust corridor located over the high plains and the maximum in all severe thunderstorm wind reports from Storm Data, located near and west of the southern Appalachians.
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Miller, Paul W., Alan W. Black, Castle A. Williams, and John A. Knox. "Quantitative Assessment of Human Wind Speed Overestimation." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, no. 4 (April 2016): 1009–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0259.1.
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AbstractHuman wind reports are a vital supplement to the relatively sparse network of automated weather stations in the United States, especially for localized convective winds. In this study, human wind estimates recorded in Storm Data between 1996 and 2013 were compared with instrumentally observed wind speeds from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). Nonconvective wind events in areas of flat terrain within the continental United States served as the basis for this analysis because of the relative spatial homogeneity of wind fields in these meteorological and geographic settings. The distribution of 6801 GHCN-measured gust factors (GF), defined here as the ratio of the daily maximum gust to the daily average wind, provided the reference upon which human gust reports were judged. GFs were also calculated for each human estimate by dividing the estimated gust by the GHCN average wind speed on that day. Human-reported GFs were disproportionately located in the upper tail of the observed GF distribution, suggesting that humans demonstrate a tendency to report statistically improbable wind gusts. As a general rule of thumb, humans overestimated nonconvective wind GFs by approximately one-third.
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Mitsuta, Yasushi, and Osamu Tsukamoto. "Studies on Spatial Structure of Wind Gust." Journal of Applied Meteorology 28, no. 11 (November 1989): 1155–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1989)028<1155:sossow>2.0.co;2.
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Mohr, Susanna, Michael Kunz, Alexandra Richter, and Bodo Ruck. "Statistical characteristics of convective wind gusts in Germany." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 6 (June 23, 2017): 957–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-957-2017.
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Abstract. Due to the small-scale and non-stationary nature of the convective wind gusts usually associated with thunderstorms, there is a considerable lack of knowledge regarding their characteristics and statistics. In an effort to remedy this situation, we investigated in this study a set of 110 climate stations of the German Weather Service between 1992 and 2014 to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution, intensity, and occurrence probability of convective gusts. Similar to thunderstorm activity, the frequency of convective gusts decreases gradually from southern to northern Germany. No further spatial structures, such as a relation to orography or climate conditions, can be identified regarding their strength or likelihood. Rather, high wind speeds of above 30 m s−1 can be expected everywhere in Germany with almost similar occurrence probabilities. A comparison of the 20-year return values of convective gusts with those of turbulent gusts demonstrates that the latter have higher frequencies, especially in northern Germany. However, for higher return periods, this effect can be reversed at some stations. The values of the convective gust factors are mainly in a range between 1 and 4 but can even reach values up to 10. Besides the dependency from the averaging time period of the mean wind, the values of the gust factors additionally depend on the event duration and the storm type, respectively.
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Brown, Andrew, and Andrew Dowdy. "Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 71, no. 1 (2021): 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es19052.
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Severe surface wind gusts produced by thunderstorms have the potential to damage infrastructure and are a major hazard for society. Wind gust data are examined from 35 observing stations around Australia, with lightning observations used to indicate the occurrence of deep convective processes in the vicinity of the observed wind gusts. A collation of severe thunderstorm reports is also used to complement the station wind gust data. Atmospheric reanalysis data are used to systematically examine large-scale environmental measures associated with severe convective winds. We find that methods based on environmental measures provide a better indication of the observed severe convective winds than the simulated model wind gusts from the reanalysis data, noting that the spatial scales on which these events occur are typically smaller than the reanalysis grid cells. Consistent with previous studies in other regions and idealised modelling, the majority of severe convective wind events are found to occur in environments with steep mid-level tropospheric lapse rates, moderate convective instability and strong background wind speeds. A large proportion of events from measured station data occur with relatively dry environmental air at low levels, although it is unknown to what extent this type of environment is representative of other severe wind-producing convective modes in Australia. The occurrence of severe convective winds is found to be well represented by a number of indices used previously for forecasting applications, such as the weighted product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear, the derecho composite parameter and the total totals index, as well as by logistic regression methods applied to environmental variables. Based on the systematic approach used in this study, our findings provide new insight on spatio-temporal variations in the risk of damaging winds occurring, including the environmental factors associated with their occurrence.
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Lee, Sung Su, and Jun Yeong Kim. "Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Thunderstorm Wind Gust." Journal of Korea Spatial Information Society 21, no. 4 (August 31, 2013): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.12672/ksis.2013.21.4.001.
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Pryor, S. C., R. Conrick, C. Miller, J. Tytell, and R. J. Barthelmie. "Intense and Extreme Wind Speeds Observed by Anemometer and Seismic Networks: An Eastern U.S. Case Study." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53, no. 11 (November 2014): 2417–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-14-0091.1.
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AbstractThe scale and intensity of extreme wind events have tremendous relevance to determining the impact on infrastructure and natural and managed ecosystems. Analyses presented herein show the following. 1) Wind speeds in excess of the station-specific 95th percentile are coherent over distances of up to 1000 km over the eastern United States, which implies that the drivers of high wind speeds are manifest at the synoptic scale. 2) Although cold fronts associated with extratropical cyclones are a major cause of high–wind speed events, maximum sustained and gust wind speeds are only weakly dependent on the near-surface horizontal temperature gradient across the front. 3) Gust factors (GF) over the eastern United States have a mean value of 1.57 and conform to a lognormal probability distribution, and the relationship between maximum observed GF and sustained wind speed conforms to a power law with coefficients of 5.91 and −0.499. Even though there is coherence in the occurrence of intense wind speeds at the synoptic scale, the intensity and spatial extent of extreme wind events are not fully characterized even by the dense meteorological networks deployed by the National Weather Service. Seismic data from the USArray, a program within the Earthscope initiative, may be suitable for use in mapping high-wind and gust events, however. It is shown that the seismic channels exhibit well-defined spectral signatures under conditions of high wind, with a variance peak at frequencies of ~0.04 s−1 and an amplitude that appears to scale with the magnitude of observed wind gusts.
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Youngman, Benjamin D., and David B. Stephenson. "A geostatistical extreme-value framework for fast simulation of natural hazard events." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 472, no. 2189 (May 2016): 20150855. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2015.0855.
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We develop a statistical framework for simulating natural hazard events that combines extreme value theory and geostatistics. Robust generalized additive model forms represent generalized Pareto marginal distribution parameters while a Student’s t -process captures spatial dependence and gives a continuous-space framework for natural hazard event simulations. Efficiency of the simulation method allows many years of data (typically over 10 000) to be obtained at relatively little computational cost. This makes the model viable for forming the hazard module of a catastrophe model. We illustrate the framework by simulating maximum wind gusts for European windstorms, which are found to have realistic marginal and spatial properties, and validate well against wind gust measurements.
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Liu, Cheng, Qinglan Li, Wei Zhao, Yuqing Wang, Riaz Ali, Dian Huang, Xiaoxiong Lu, Hui Zheng, and Xiaolin Wei. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Near-Surface Wind in Shenzhen." Sustainability 12, no. 2 (January 20, 2020): 739. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12020739.
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The spatiotemporal characteristics of near-surface wind in Shenzhen were investigated in this study by using hourly observations at 92 automatic weather stations (AWSs) from 2009 to 2018. The results show that during the past 10 years, most of the stations showed a decreasing trend in the annual mean of the 10 min average wind speed (avg-wind) and the mean of the 3 s average wind speed (gust wind). Over half of the decreasing trends at the stations were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Seasonally, the decrease in wind speed was the most severe in spring, followed by autumn, winter, and summer. The distribution of wind speed tends to be greater in the east and coastal areas for both avg-wind and gust wind. From September to March of the following year, the prevailing wind direction in Shenzhen was northerly, and from April to August, the prevailing wind direction was southerly. The seasonal wind speed distribution exhibited two different types, spring–summer type and autumn–winter type, which may be induced by their different prevailing wind directions. The analysis by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method confirmed the previous findings that the mean wind speed was decreasing in Shenzhen and that two different seasonal wind speed spatial distribution patterns existed. Such a study could provide references for wind forecasting and risk assessment in the study area.
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Vrancken, Patrick, and Jonas Herbst. "Development and Test of a Fringe-Imaging Direct-Detection Doppler Wind Lidar for Aeronautics." EPJ Web of Conferences 237 (2020): 07008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202023707008.
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DLR currently investigates the use of Doppler wind lidar as sensor within feedforward gust alleviation control loops on fast-flying fixed-wing aircraft. Such a scheme imposes strong requirements on the lidar system such as sub-m/s precision, high rate, high spatial resolution, close measurement ranges and sensitivity to mixed and pure molecular backscatter. We report on the development of a novel direct-detection Doppler wind lidar (DD-DWL) within these requirements. This DD-DWL is based on fringe-imaging of the Doppler-shifted backscatter of UV laser pulses in a field-widened Michelson interferometer using a fast linear photodetector. A prototype for airborne operation has been ground-tested in early 2018 against a commercial coherent DWL, demonstrating its ability of measuring close-range wind speeds with a precision of 0.5 m/s, independent of the actual wind speed.
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Kunz, M., S. Mohr, M. Rauthe, R. Lux, and Ch Kottmeier. "Assessment of extreme wind speeds from Regional Climate Models – Part 1: Estimation of return values and their evaluation." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 4 (April 23, 2010): 907–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-907-2010.
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Abstract. Frequency and intensity of gust wind speeds associated with severe mid-latitude winter storms are estimated by applying extreme value statistics to data sets from regional climate models (RCM). Maximum wind speeds related to probability are calculated with the classical peaks over threshold method, where a statistical distribution function is fitted to the reduced sample describing the tail of the distribution function. From different sensitivity studies it is found that the Generalized Pareto Distribution in combination with a Maximum-Likelihood estimator provide the most reliable and robust results. For a reference period from 1971 to 2000, the ability of the RCMs to realistically simulate extreme wind speeds is investigated. For this purpose, data from three RCM scenarios, including the REMO-UBA simulations at 10 km resolution and the so-called consortial runs performed with the CCLM at 18 km resolution (two runs), are evaluated with observations and a pre-existing storm hazard map for Germany. It is found that all RCMs tend to underestimate the magnitude of the gusts in a range between 10 and 30% for a 10-year return period. Averaged over the investigation area, the underestimation is higher for CCLM compared to REMO. The spatial distribution of the gusts, on the other hand, is well reproduced, in particular by REMO.
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Klawa, M., and U. Ulbrich. "A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 3, no. 6 (December 31, 2003): 725–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003.
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Abstract. A storm loss model for Germany is presented. Input data to the model are the daily maximum gust wind speeds measured at stations distributed over the country. The individual daily peak gust values are scaled with the local climatological upper 2% quantile at each station. This scaling serves to take local conditions at the stations into account, and thus permits a simple spatial interpolation of the storm field. The next step is the computation of a loss index for each storm. It is based on the excess of (scaled) wind speed over the upper 2% quantile, and on population numbers in the individual districts within Germany, with the latter serving as a proxy for the spatial distribution of values that could be affected by a storm. Using wind speeds in excess of the percentile value also serves to take spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability against storms into account. The aggregated storm index gives an estimate of the severity of an individual storm. Finally, the relation between actual loss produced by a storm and the index is estimated using published annual insurance loss due to windstorm in Germany. Index values are accumulated for each year, and the relation to actual loss is computed. The average ratio for the whole reference period is eventually used. It is shown that the interannual variability of storm-related losses can be reproduced with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.96, and even individual storm damages can be estimated. Based on these evaluations we found that only 50 storms account for about 80% of insured storm losses between 1970 and 1997.
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Gnatowska, Renata. "Selection of criteria in pedestrian wind comfort assessment." Budownictwo i Architektura 8, no. 1 (June 13, 2011): 005–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.35784/bud-arch.2254.
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Wind comfort in an built-up areas may be affected by a wide range of parameters, including wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, air quality, human activity, age, etc. In practice, the assessment of the pedestrian comfort is carried out on the basis of the indexes defined to a considerably smaller number of parameters. Generally it is a criterion of wind velocity with the probability of exceeding the assumed discomfort threshold. This article discusses issues of spatial planning built-up areas including wind comfort criteria. The article pointed out the role of criteria adopted in estimation of discomfort areas. An important role is played here the value of the amplitude of the gust factor g. The attention was also drawn to the strong time variability of discomfort zones especially in areas close to buildings.
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Bertrand, Cédric, Luis González Sotelino, and Michel Journée. "Quality control of the RMI's AWS wind observations." Advances in Science and Research 13 (February 25, 2016): 13–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-13-2016.
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Abstract. Wind observations are important for a wide range of domains including among others meteorology, agriculture and extreme wind engineering. To ensure the provision of high quality surface wind data over Belgium, a new semi-automated data quality control (QC) has been developed and applied to wind observations from the automated weather stations operated by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. This new QC applies to 10 m 10 min averaged wind speed and direction, 10 m gust speed and direction, 2 m 10 min averaged wind speed and 30 m 10 min averaged wind speed records. After an existence test, automated procedures check the data for limits consistency, internal consistency, temporal consistency and spatial consistency. At the end of the automated QC, a decision algorithm attributes a flag to each particular data point. Each day, the QC staff analyzes the preceding day's observations in the light of the assigned quality flags.
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Prahl, B. F., D. Rybski, O. Burghoff, and J. P. Kropp. "Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 4 (April 9, 2015): 769–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015.
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Abstract. Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012).
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Shun, C. M., and P. W. Chan. "Applications of an Infrared Doppler Lidar in Detection of Wind Shear." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25, no. 5 (May 1, 2008): 637–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jtecha1057.1.
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Abstract In December 2005, operational wind shear alerting at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) reached an important milestone with the launch of the automatic Lidar (light detection and ranging) Windshear Alerting System (LIWAS). This signifies that the anemometer-based and radar-based wind shear detection technologies deployed worldwide in the twentieth century have been further advanced by the addition of the lidar—a step closer to all-weather coverage. Unlike the microburst and gust front, which have a well-defined coherent vertical structure in the lowest several hundred meters of the atmosphere, terrain-induced wind shear tends to have high spatial and temporal variability. To detect the highly changeable winds to be encountered by the aircraft under terrain-induced wind shear situations, the Hong Kong Observatory devises an innovative glide path scan (GPScan) strategy for the lidar, pointing the laser beam toward the approach and departure glide paths, with the changes in azimuth and elevation angles concerted. The purpose of the GPScans is to derive the headwind profiles and hence the wind shear along the glide paths. Developed based on these GPScans, LIWAS is able to capture about 76% of the wind shear events reported by pilots over the most-used approach corridor under clear-air conditions. During the past two years, further developments of the lidar took place at HKIA, including the use of runway-specific lidar to further enhance the wind shear detection performance.
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Radics, K., J. Bartholy, and Cs N. Péliné. "Regional tendencies of extreme wind characteristics in Hungary." Advances in Science and Research 4, no. 1 (April 26, 2010): 43–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-4-43-2010.
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Abstract. Human activities have substantial effects on climate system and climate change will directly influence the global economy and society in the near future. Since change in the long-term mean climatic conditions will have significant consequences, the most important effects of climate change may come from changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes. It is therefore of great interest to document and evaluate the extremes of near-surface wind that could assist in estimating the regional effects of climate change. Recently a research started on specifying the possible changes of wind characteristics over Hungary. The study is based on 33-year-long (1975–2007) wind (speed, direction, and gust) data sets of 36 Hungarian synoptic meteorological stations. Spatial and temporal distributions of mean and extreme wind climate characteristics were estimated, wind extremes and trends were interpolated and mapped over the country. Finally, measured and reanalysis (ERA-40) wind data were compared over Hungary. This might be important in order to check the adaptability of climate simulation results in estimation of regional climate change effects besides the direct validitation of ERA-40 reanalysis data sets.
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Schlager, Christoph, Gottfried Kirchengast, and Juergen Fuchsberger. "Empirical high-resolution wind field and gust model in mountainous and hilly terrain based on the dense WegenerNet station networks." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 11, no. 10 (October 15, 2018): 5607–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5607-2018.
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Abstract. A weather diagnostic application for automatic generation of gridded wind fields in near-real-time, recently developed by the authors Schlager et al. (2017), is applied to the WegenerNet Johnsbachtal (JBT) meteorological station network. This station network contains 11 meteorological stations at elevations from about 600 to 2200 m in a mountainous region in the north of Styria, Austria. The application generates, based on meteorological observations with a temporal resolution of 10 min from the WegenerNet JBT, mean wind and wind gust fields at 10 and 50 m height levels with a high spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m and a temporal resolution of 30 min. These wind field products are automatically stored to the WegenerNet data archives, which also include long-term averaged weather and climate datasets from post-processing. The main purpose of these empirically modeled products is the evaluation of convection-permitting dynamical climate models as well as investigating weather and climate variability on a local scale. The application's performance is evaluated against the observations from meteorological stations for representative weather conditions, for a month including mainly thermally induced wind events (July 2014) and a month with frequently occurring strong wind events (December 2013). The overall statistical agreement, estimated for the vector-mean wind speed, shows a reasonably good modeling performance. Due to the spatially more homogeneous wind speeds and directions for strong wind events in this mountainous region, the results show somewhat better performance for these events. The difference between modeled and observed wind directions depends on the station location, where locations along mountain slopes are particularly challenging. Furthermore, the seasonal statistical agreement was investigated from 5-year climate data of the WegenerNet JBT in comparison to 9-year climate data from the high-density WegenerNet meteorological station network Feldbach Region (FBR) analyzed by Schlager et al. (2017). In general, the 5-year statistical evaluation for the JBT indicates similar performance as the shorter-term evaluations of the two representative months. Because of the denser WegenerNet FBR network, the statistical results show better performance for this station network. The application can now serve as a valuable tool for intercomparison with, and evaluation of, wind fields from high-resolution dynamical climate models in both the WegenerNet FBR and JBT regions.
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Макарова, В. В., Т. К. Мьо, and Ю. П. Потехин. "Investigation of the dynamic inclinations of vessels under the action squall within the conditions of the weather criterion." MORSKIE INTELLEKTUAL`NYE TEHNOLOGII), no. 1(51) (March 5, 2021): 35–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.37220/mit.2021.51.1.023.
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Рассматривается динамический крен судов, расположенных лагом к фронту волнения, под действием порывов ветра и шквалов. Путем имитационного моделирования пространственного движения оценивается выполнение основных допущений, используемых при нормировании остойчивости в рамках критерия погоды. Показано, что первое динамическое наклонение судна на подветренный борт может быть максимальным, если длительность порыва ветра или шквала не превышает полупериода собственных бортовых колебаний. При более длительных шквалах максимальным будет второе или третье наклонение. Оценивается влияние хода судна и постоянно действующего ветра на динамический крен. Подтверждено, что для малых судов, для которых волнение высокой балльности приближается к резонансному, опасность воздействия шквалистого ветра наиболее велика. Результаты показывают, что, несмотря на существенную упрощающую схематизацию реальных процессов, критерий погоды является вполне эффективным средством прогнозирования безопасности штормового плавания судов. Reviewed the dynamic heel of ships disposed broadside to the wave front under the influence of wind gusts and squalls. By means of simulation of spatial motion, the fulfillment of the basic assumptions used in the normalization of stability within the framework of the weather criterion is evaluated. It is shown that the first dynamic inclination of the vessel to the leeward side can be maximal if the duration of a wind gust or squall does not exceed the half-period of natural side vibrations. With longer squalls, the second or third inclination will be maximum. The influence of the ship's course and the constantly acting wind on the dynamic heel is estimated. It has been confirmed that for small vessels, for which high-intensity waves are approaching resonance, the danger of the impact of squally wind is greatest. The results show that, despite the significant simplifying schematization of real processes, the weather criterion is a quite effective means of predicting the safety of stormy navigation of ships.
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Dawkins, Laura C., David B. Stephenson, Julia F. Lockwood, and Paul E. Maisey. "The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 8 (August 29, 2016): 1999–2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016.
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Abstract. A decline in damaging European windstorms has led to a reduction in insured losses in the 21st century. This decline is explored by identifying a damaging windstorm characteristic and investigating how and why this characteristic has changed in recent years. This novel exploration is based on 6103 high-resolution model-generated historical footprints (1979–2014), representing the whole European domain. The footprint of a windstorm is defined as the maximum wind gust speed to occur at a set of spatial locations over the duration of the storm. The area of the footprint exceeding 20 ms−1 over land, A20, is shown to be a good predictor of windstorm damage. This damaging characteristic has decreased in the 21st century, due to a statistically significant decrease in the relative frequency of windstorms exceeding 20 ms−1 in north-western Europe, although an increase is observed in southern Europe. This is explained by a decrease in the quantiles of the footprint wind gust speed distribution above approximately 18 ms−1 at locations in this region. In addition, an increased variability in the number of windstorm events is observed in the 21st century. Much of the change in A20 is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The correlation between winter total A20 and winter-averaged mean sea-level pressure resembles the NAO pattern, shifted eastwards over Europe, and a strong positive relationship (correlation of 0.715) exists between winter total A20 and winter-averaged NAO. The shifted correlation pattern, however, suggests that other modes of variability may also play a role in the variation in windstorm losses.
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Bluestein, Howard B., Jana B. Houser, Michael M. French, Jeffrey C. Snyder, George D. Emmitt, Ivan PopStefanija, Chad Baldi, and Robert T. Bluth. "Observations of the Boundary Layer near Tornadoes and in Supercells Using a Mobile, Collocated, Pulsed Doppler Lidar and Radar." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31, no. 2 (February 1, 2014): 302–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-13-00112.1.
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Abstract During the Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2), in the spring of 2010, a mobile and pulsed Doppler lidar system [the Truck-Mounted Wind Observing Lidar Facility (TWOLF)] mounted on a truck along with a mobile, phased-array, X-band Doppler radar system [Mobile Weather Radar–2005 X-band, phased array (MWR-05XP)] was used to complement Doppler velocity coverage in clear air near the radar–lidar facility and to provide high-spatial-resolution vertical cross sections of the Doppler wind field in the clear-air boundary layer near and in supercells. It is thought that the magnitude and direction of vertical shear and possibly the orientation and spacing of rolls in the boundary layer have significant effects on both supercell and tornado behavior; MWR-05XP and TWOLF can provide data that can be used to measure vertical shear and detect rolls. However, there are very few detailed, time-dependent and spatially varying observations throughout the depth of the boundary layer of supercells and tornadoes. This paper discusses lidar and radar data collected in or near six supercells. Features seen by the lidar included gust fronts, horizontal convective rolls, and small-scale vortices. The lidar proved useful at detecting high-spatial-resolution, clear-air returns at close range, where the radar was incapable of doing so, thus providing a more complete picture of the boundary layer environment ahead of supercells. The lidar was especially useful in areas where there was ground-clutter contamination. When there was precipitation and probably insects, and beyond the range of the lidar, where there was no ground-clutter contamination, the radar was the more useful instrument. Suggestions are made for improving the system and its use in studying the tornado boundary layer.
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DONATO, A. N., D. H. PEREGRINE, and J. R. STOCKER. "The focusing of surface waves by internal waves." Journal of Fluid Mechanics 384 (April 10, 1999): 27–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022112098003917.
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The surface current generated by internal waves in the ocean affects surface gravity waves. The propagation of short surface waves is studied using both simple ray theory for linear waves and a fully nonlinear numerical potential solver. Attention is directed to the case of short waves with initially uniform wavenumber, as may be generated by a strong gust of wind. In general, some of the waves are focused by the surface current and in these regions the waves steepen and may break. Comparisons are made between ray theory and the more accurate solutions. For ray theory, the occurrence of focusing is examined in some detail and exact analytic solutions are found for rays on currents with linear and quadratic spatial variation – only the latter giving focusing for our initial conditions. With regard to interpretation of remote sensing of the sea surface, we find that enhanced wave steepness is not necessarily associated with a particular phase of the internal wave, and simplistic interpretations may sometimes be misleading.
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Kafi, K. M., A. Aliyu, K. H. Olugbodi, I. J. Abubakar, S. G. Usman, and M. Saleh. "URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDINGS IN RUINS: DAMAGE SEVERITY MAPPING OF NEIGHBORHOODS AFFECTED BY THE JUNE 2018 WINDSTORM IN BAUCHI." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-4/W16 (October 1, 2019): 327–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-4-w16-327-2019.
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Abstract. Bauchi for the first time in history experienced a horrific windstorm that lasted for not more than 2 hours, but destroyed more than 20 lives and thousands urban infrastructure. This study examines the monumental damage on buildings and structures as a result of the June, 2018 windstorm disaster event in Bauchi. Handheld GPS was used in taking the location information 1662 structures affected by the windstorm. GIS was used in assessing the spatial pattern and as well mapping the extent of the damage. The results of the Average Nearest Neighbor indicate a clustered pattern with the index (ANN ratio) at 0.30 less than 1%. Similarly, the study reveals that most of the affected structures are residential land use with of 91.2% identified as damaged while the least is the recreational land use with only 0.3% structures identified as damaged by the disaster. On a district level, Jahun is the worst affected district with a total of 46.6% damaged buildings and structures. Finally, variability in annual peak wind gust trend in the last decade suggests the evidence of climate change footprints in Bauchi.
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Liu, Lijun, Yuanqiao Wen, Youjia Liang, Fan Zhang, and Tiantian Yang. "Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River." Atmosphere 10, no. 3 (March 12, 2019): 133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030133.
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The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.
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Beserra de Lima, Nádia Gilma, and Emerson Galvani. "Mangrove Microclimate: A Case Study from Southeastern Brazil." Earth Interactions 17, no. 2 (April 1, 2013): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2012ei000464.1.
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Abstract A mangrove is a transitional coastal ecosystem between marine and terrestrial environments that is characterized by salinity and constant tidal flooding. Mangroves contain plant communities that are adapted to several physical constraints, including the climate. The purpose of this study was to analyze the variations in climatic attributes (air temperature, relative air humidity, global solar radiation, wind, and rainfall) in the mangroves located in the municipality of Iguape, on the southern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. In addition, it was determined whether the existing variation is related to the presence of the canopy environment. A microclimate tower was installed with two weather stations to obtain an analysis of the variation of the climatic attributes above and below the canopy. The results indicate that global solar radiation had an average transmissivity of 26.8%. The air temperature at 10 m was higher than that at the sensor at 2 m. The average rainfall interception for the mangrove environment was 19.6%. Both the maximum gust and average wind speed decreased by approximately 63.7% at 2 m. The mangrove canopy was found to be an important control on the variation of climatic attributes. On a microclimatic scale, the climate attributes had a direct influence on the spatial distribution of vegetation. Additionally, characteristics of the canopy are the main control for this variation, especially for the distribution of rainfall and the amount of solar radiation below the canopy, which influence the distribution of plant species in the environment.
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Dahl, Nathan A., David S. Nolan, George H. Bryan, and Richard Rotunno. "Using High-Resolution Simulations to Quantify Underestimates of Tornado Intensity from In Situ Observations." Monthly Weather Review 145, no. 5 (May 1, 2017): 1963–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-16-0346.1.
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Abstract Large-eddy simulations are used to produce realistic, high-resolution depictions of near-surface winds in translating tornadoes. The translation speed, swirl ratio, and vertical forcing are varied to provide a range of vortex intensities and structural types. Observation experiments are then performed in which the tornadoes are passed over groups of simulated sensors. Some of the experiments use indestructible, error-free anemometers while others limit the range of observable wind speeds to mimic the characteristics of damage indicators specified in the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Also, in some of the experiments the sensors are randomly placed while in others they are positioned in regularly spaced columns perpendicular to the vortex tracks to mimic field project deployments. Statistical analysis of the results provides quantitative insight into the limitations of tornado intensity estimates based on damage surveys or in situ measurements in rural or semirural areas. The mean negative bias relative to the “true” global maximum 3-s gust at 10 m AGL (the standard for EF ratings) exceeds 10 m s−1 in all cases and 45 m s−1 in some cases. A small number of sensors are generally sufficient to provide a good approximation of the running time-mean maximum during the period of observation, although the required spatial resolution of the sensor group is still substantially higher than that previously attained by any field program. Because of model limitations and simplifying assumptions, these results are regarded as a lower bound for tornado intensity underestimates in rural and semirural areas and provide a baseline for further inquiry.
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Wurman, Joshua, and Curtis R. Alexander. "The 30 May 1998 Spencer, South Dakota, Storm. Part II: Comparison of Observed Damage and Radar-Derived Winds in the Tornadoes." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 1 (January 1, 2005): 97–119. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-2856.1.
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Abstract A violent supercell tornado passed through the town of Spencer, South Dakota, on the evening of 30 May 1998 producing large gradients in damage severity. The tornado was rated at F4 intensity by damage survey teams. A Doppler On Wheels (DOW) mobile radar followed this tornado and observed the tornado at ranges between 1.7 and 8.0 km during various stages of the tornado's life. The DOW was deployed less than 4.0 km from the town of Spencer between 0134 and 0145 UTC, and during this time period, the tornado passed through Spencer, and peak Doppler velocity measurements exceeded 100 m s−1. Data gathered from the DOW during this time period contained high spatial resolution sample volumes of approximately 34 m × 34 m × 37 m along with frequent volume updates every 45–50 s. The high-resolution Doppler velocity data gathered from low-level elevation scans, when sample volumes are between 20 and 40 m AGL, are compared to extensive ground and aerial damage surveys performed by the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Idealized radial profiles of tangential velocity are computed by fitting a model of an axisymmetric translating vortex to the Doppler radar observations, which compensates for velocity components perpendicular to the radar beam as well as the translational motion of the tornado vortex. Both the original single-Doppler velocity data and the interpolated velocity fields are compared with damage survey Fujita scale (F-scale) estimates throughout the town of Spencer. This comparison on a structure-by-structure basis revealed that radar-based estimates of the F-scale intensity usually exceeded the damage-survey-based F-scale both inside and outside the town of Spencer. In the town of Spencer, the radar-based wind field revealed two distinct velocity time series inside and outside the passage of the core-flow region. The center of the core-flow region tracked about 50 m farther north than the damage survey indicated because of the asymmetry induced by the 15 m s−1 translational motion of the tornado. The radar consistently measured the strongest winds in the lowest 200 m AGL with the most extreme Doppler velocities residing within 50 m AGL. Alternate measures of tornado wind field intensity that incorporated the effects of the duration of the extreme winds and debris were explored. It is suggested that damage may not be a simple function of peak wind gust and structural integrity, but that the duration of intense winds, directional changes, accelerations, and upwind debris loading may be critical factors.
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Fuchsberger, Jürgen, Gottfried Kirchengast, and Thomas Kabas. "WegenerNet high-resolution weather and climate data from 2007 to 2020." Earth System Science Data 13, no. 3 (March 26, 2021): 1307–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1307-2021.
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Abstract. This paper describes the latest reprocessed data record (version 7.1) over 2007 to 2020 from the WegenerNet climate station networks, which since 2007 have been providing measurements with very high spatial and temporal resolution of hydrometeorological variables for two regions in the state of Styria, southeastern Austria: (1) the WegenerNet Feldbach Region, in the Alpine forelands of southeastern Styria, which extends over an area of about 22 km × 16 km and comprises 155 meteorological stations placed on a tightly spaced grid with an average spatial density of 1 station per ∼ 2 km2 and a temporal sampling of 5 min, and (2) the WegenerNet Johnsbachtal, which is a smaller “sister network” of the WegenerNet Feldbach Region in the mountainous Alpine region of upper Styria that extends over an area of about 16 km × 17 km and comprises 13 meteorological stations and 1 hydrographic station at altitudes ranging from below 600 m to over 2100 m and with a temporal sampling of 10 min. These networks operate on a long-term basis and continuously provide quality-controlled station time series for a multitude of hydrometeorological near-surface and surface variables, including air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction, wind gust speed and direction, soil moisture, soil temperature, and others like pressure and radiation variables at a few reference stations. In addition, gridded data are available at a resolution of 200 m × 200 m for air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and heat index for the Feldbach region and at a resolution of 100 m × 100 m for the wind parameters for both regions. Here we describe this dataset (the most recent reprocessing version 7.1) in terms of the measurement site and station characteristics as well as the data processing, from raw data (level 0) via quality-controlled basic station data (level 1) to weather and climate data products (level 2). In order to showcase the practical utility of the data, we also include two illustrative example applications, briefly summarize and refer to scientific uses in a range of previous studies, and briefly inform about the most recent WegenerNet advancements in 2020 towards a 3D open-air laboratory for climate change research. The dataset is published as part of the University of Graz Wegener Center's WegenerNet data repository under the DOI https://doi.org/10.25364/WEGC/WPS7.1:2021.1 (Fuchsberger et al., 2021) and is continuously extended.
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Wurman, Joshua, Yvette Richardson, Curtis Alexander, Stephen Weygandt, and Peng Fei Zhang. "Dual-Doppler and Single-Doppler Analysis of a Tornadic Storm Undergoing Mergers and Repeated Tornadogenesis." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 3 (March 1, 2007): 736–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3276.1.
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Abstract Dual-Doppler observations with unprecedented finescale spatial and temporal resolution are used to characterize the vector wind field in and near a tornado occurring near Kiefer, Oklahoma, on 26 May 1997. Analyses of the dual-Doppler vector wind fields document in detail, for the first time, several structures associated with the tornado: a proximate updraft region, a rear-flank downdraft wrapping around the tornado, a double gust front structure occluding near the tornado, and a region of enhanced vorticity separated from the tornado that may have been associated with cyclic tornadogenesis. The analyses are compared to conceptual and computer models of tornadic storms. A subsequent tornadogenesis was observed with radar every 18 s, providing a finescale temporal view of the genesis process. The genesis process was complex and the evolution of tornado intensity parameters was not monotonic in time. Low-level rotation contracted and intensified, then broadened, then contracted and intensified a second time to form the tornado. The initial tornadogenesis was coincident with the merger of the main supercell and a much smaller convective storm. This tornado, which was always surrounded by substantial precipitation originating from both storms, began to dissipate just a few minutes after genesis, and the rotation both aloft and near the surface weakened substantially. A second storm merger, with a much larger and supercellular storm, was coincident with a reintensification of the mesocyclone aloft, a new hook echo development, and the genesis of a short-lived tornado. After the dissipation of this second tornado, the merger disrupted the structure of the supercell storm, the hook echo was absorbed, and the mesocyclone dissipated. The current analysis suggests a process in which storm mergers may, in sequence, aid tornadogenesis by enhancing surface convergence, or through another mechanism, but subsequently disrupt the tornado’s parent supercell perhaps by cooling the inflow air, with the result being short-lived tornadoes.
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Ashley, Walker S., and Alan W. Black. "Fatalities Associated with Nonconvective High-Wind Events in the United States." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47, no. 2 (February 1, 2008): 717–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jamc1689.1.
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Abstract A database was compiled for the period 1980–2005 to assess the threat to life in the conterminous United States from nonconvective high-wind events. This study reveals the number of fatalities from these wind storms, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. While tornadoes continue to cause the most wind-related fatalities per year, nonconvective high winds (defined as phenomena such as downslope and gap winds, gradient winds, dust storms, and winds associated with midlatitude cyclones) have the potential to fatally injure more people than thunderstorm or hurricane winds. Nonconvective wind fatalities occur more frequently in vehicles or while boating. Fatalities are most common along the West Coast and Northeast in association with passing extratropical cyclones, with fewer fatalities observed in the central United States despite this region’s susceptibility for high-wind gusts. A combination of physical and social vulnerabilities is suggested as the cause for the unique fatality distribution found. More than 83% of all nonconvective wind fatalities are associated with the passage of extratropical cyclones.
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Kosiba, Karen, Joshua Wurman, Forrest J. Masters, and Paul Robinson. "Mapping of Near-Surface Winds in Hurricane Rita Using Finescale Radar, Anemometer, and Land-Use Data." Monthly Weather Review 141, no. 12 (November 25, 2013): 4337–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00350.1.
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Abstract Data collected from a Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radar deployed in Port Arthur, Texas, near the point of landfall of Hurricane Rita (2005) and from two Florida Coastal Monitoring Program 10-m weather stations (FCMP-WSs) are used to characterize wind field variability, including hurricane boundary layer (HBL) streaks/rolls, during the hurricane's passage. DOW data, validated against nearby weather station data, are combined with surface roughness fields derived from land-use mapping to produce fine spatial scale, two-dimensional maps of the 10 m above ground level (AGL) open-terrain exposure and exposure-influenced winds over Port Arthur. The DOW collected ~3000 low-elevation radar sweeps at 12-s intervals for >10 h during the passage of the hurricane. This study focuses on the 2–3-h period when the western eyewall passed over Port Arthur. Finescale HBL wind streaks are observed to have length scales of O(300 m), smaller than previously identified in other HBL studies. The HBL streaks are tracked as they pass over an FCMP-WS located in flat, open terrain and another FCMP-WS located near a subdivision. DOW data collected over the FCMP-WS are reduced to anemometer height, using roughness lengths calculated from DOW and FCMP-WS data. Variations in the radar-observed winds directly over the FCMP-WS are very well correlated, both in their timing and magnitude, with wind gusts observed by the weather stations, revealing directly for the first time the surface manifestation of these wind streaks that are observed frequently by radar >100 m AGL. This allows for the generation of spatially filled maps of small-scale wind fluctuations over Port Arthur during the hurricane eyewall's passage using DOW-measured winds.
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Bonazzi, A., S. Cusack, C. Mitas, and S. Jewson. "The spatial structure of European wind storms as characterized by bivariate extreme-value Copulas." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 5 (May 29, 2012): 1769–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1769-2012.
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Abstract. The winds associated with extra-tropical cyclones are amongst the costliest natural perils in Europe. Re/insurance companies typically have insured exposure at multiple locations and hence the losses they incur from any individual storm crucially depend on that storm's spatial structure. Motivated by this, this study investigates the spatial structure of the most extreme windstorms in Europe. The data consists of a carefully constructed set of 135 of the most damaging storms in the period 1972–2010. Extreme value copulas are applied to this data to investigate the spatial dependencies of gusts. The copula method is used to investigate three aspects of windstorms. First, spatial maps of expected hazard damage between large cities and their surrounding areas are presented. Second, we demonstrate a practical application of the copula method to benchmark catalogues of artificial storms for use in the re/insurance sector. Third, the copula-based method is used to investigate the sensitivity of spatially aggregated damage to climate variability. The copula method allows changes to be expressed in terms of storm frequency, local intensity, and storm spatial structure and gives a more detailed view of how climate variability may affect multi-location risk in Europe.
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Ashkenazy, Yosef, and Hezi Gildor. "On the Probability and Spatial Distribution of Ocean Surface Currents." Journal of Physical Oceanography 41, no. 12 (December 1, 2011): 2295–306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-11-04.1.
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Abstract Insights into the probability distribution of ocean currents are important for various applications such as the chance to encounter extreme events, which may affect, for example, marine construction, and for estimating the energy that can be extracted from the ocean. In addition, for devising better parameterizations for submesoscale mixing, which present climate models cannot resolve, one should understand the velocity distribution and its relation to the various forcing of surface ocean circulation. Here, the authors investigate the probability distribution of surface currents from the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba measured by high-frequency radar. Their results show that the distribution of ocean current speeds can be approximated by a Weibull distribution. Moreover, the authors demonstrate the existence of spatial variations of the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution over a relatively small region of only a few kilometers. They use a simple surface Ekman layer model to investigate this spatial variability. They find that, when forced by local winds, this model does not reproduce the observations. The addition of Gaussian noise to the zonal and meridional components of the bottom geostrophic currents has only a slight effect on the surface current distribution. However, noise added to the components of the local wind (mimicking wind gusts) has a much greater effect on the distribution of surface currents, suggesting that wind spatial and temporal variability underlay the observed spatial variability of the parameters of the Weibull distribution.
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Sterlyadkin, V. V. "Spatial selection and grouping of raindrops by size in wind gusts." Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 51, no. 6 (November 2015): 615–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s0001433815060122.
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Earl, Nick, Steve Dorling, Richard Hewston, and Roland von Glasow. "1980–2010 Variability in U.K. Surface Wind Climate." Journal of Climate 26, no. 4 (February 15, 2013): 1172–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00026.1.
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Abstract The climate of the northeast Atlantic region comprises substantial decadal variability in storminess. It also exhibits strong inter- and intra-annual variability in extreme high and low wind speed episodes. Here the authors quantify and discuss causes of the variability seen in the U.K. wind climate over the recent period 1980–2010. Variations in U.K. hourly mean (HM) wind speeds, in daily maximum gust speeds and in associated wind direction measurements, made at standard 10-m height and recorded across a network of 40 stations, are considered. The Weibull distribution is shown to generally provide a good fit to the hourly wind data, albeit with the shape parameter k spatially varying from 1.4 to 2.1, highlighting that the commonly assumed k = 2 Rayleigh distribution is not universal. It is found that the 10th and 50th percentile HM wind speeds have declined significantly over this specific period, while still incorporating a peak in the early 1990s. The authors' analyses place the particularly “low wind” year of 2010 into longer-term context and their findings are compared with other recent international studies. Wind variability is also quantified and discussed in terms of variations in the exceedance of key wind speed thresholds of relevance to the insurance and wind energy industries. Associated interannual variability in energy density and potential wind power output of the order of ±20% around the mean is revealed. While 40% of network average winds are in the southwest quadrant, 51% of energy in the wind is associated with this sector. The findings are discussed in the context of current existing challenges to improve predictability in the Euro-Atlantic sector over all time scales.
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Jeong, Dae Il, and Laxmi Sushama. "Projected Changes to Mean and Extreme Surface Wind Speeds for North America Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations." Atmosphere 10, no. 9 (August 27, 2019): 497. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10090497.
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This study evaluates projected changes to surface wind characteristics for the 2071–2100 period over North America (NA), using four Global Environmental Multiscale regional climate model simulations, driven by two global climate models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. For the current climate, the model simulates well the climatology of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and associated wind direction over NA. Future simulations suggest increases in mean wind speed for northern and eastern parts of Canada, associated with decreases in future MSLP, which results in more intense low-pressure systems situated in those regions such as the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. Projected changes to annual maximum 3-hourly wind speed show more spatial variability compared to seasonal and annual mean wind speed, indicating that extreme wind speeds are influenced by regional level features associated with instantaneous surface temperature and air pressure gradients. The simulations also suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of 3-hourly wind speed and hourly wind gusts, mainly due to increases in the inter-annual variability of annual maximum values. The variability of projected changes to both extreme wind speed and gusts indicate the need for a larger set of projections, including those from other regional models driven by many GCMs to better quantify uncertainties in future wind extremes and their characteristics.
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Lušić, Zvonimir, Nenad Leder, Danijel Pušić, and Rino Bošnjak. "Influence Of Hydro-Meteorological Elements On The Ship Manoeuvring In The City Port Of Split." Pedagogika-Pedagogy 93, no. 7s (August 31, 2021): 36–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.53656/ped21-7s.03infl.
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The Port of Split is located in the central part of the eastern Adriatic and is the largest Croatian passenger port. The Port of Split consists of the North Port, for the reception of mainly cargo ships, and the City Port for the reception of passenger ships. Although the port is protected from the open part of the Adriatic by a number of islands, its specific spatial position as well as local hydro-meteorological factors, primarily wind, can significantly affect the safety of navigation, and ultimately close all traffic. The entrance to the City Port is facing to the south; accordingly, the effect of southerly winds and waves will be one of the primary factors influencing the safety of manoeuvring. Also, the wider area of Split is characterized by the strong local, approximately NE wind with sudden gusts (‘’Bura’’) which is especially dangerous for navigation. This paper analyses the effect of significant hydro-meteorological factors on the safety of manoeuvring at the approach and within the City Port of Split. The influence of wind, waves, sea current, tides and visibility will be analysed. Also, these factors will be classified in order of importance with respect to those parts of the port where they predominate as a threat to manoeuvring safety. The obtained results should serve as a basis for future defining of limiting working/manoeuvring conditions.
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Carvalho, Leila, Gert-Jan Duine, Charles Jones, Katelyn Zigner, Craig Clements, Heather Kane, Chloe Gore, et al. "The Sundowner Winds Experiment (SWEX) Pilot Study: Understanding Downslope Windstorms in the Santa Ynez Mountains, Santa Barbara, California." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 4 (March 18, 2020): 1519–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0207.1.
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Abstract Sundowner winds are downslope gusty winds often observed on the southern slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains (SYM) in coastal Santa Barbara (SB), California. They typically peak near sunset and exhibit characteristics of downslope windstorms through the evening. They are SB’s most critical fire weather in all seasons and represent a major hazard for aviation. The Sundowner Winds Experiment Pilot Study was designed to evaluate vertical profiles of winds, temperature, humidity, and stability leeward of the SYM during a Sundowner event. This was accomplished by launching 3-hourly radiosondes during a significant Sundowner event on 28–29 April 2018. This study showed that winds in the lee of the SYM exhibit complex spatial and temporal patterns. Vertical profiles showed a transition from humid onshore winds from morning to midafternoon to very pronounced offshore winds during the evening after sunset. These winds accompanied mountain waves and a northerly nocturnal lee jet with variable temporal behavior. Around sunset, the jet was characterized by strong wind speeds enhanced by mountain-wave breaking. Winds weakened considerably at 2300 PDT 29 April but enhanced dramatically at 0200 PDT 29 April at much lower elevations. These transitions were accompanied by changes in stability profiles and in the Richardson number. A simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 1-km grid spacing was examined to evaluate the skill of the model in capturing the observed winds and stability profiles and to assess mesoscale processes associated with this event. These results advanced understanding on Sundowner’s spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms.
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Lawson, John, and John Horel. "Analysis of the 1 December 2011 Wasatch Downslope Windstorm." Weather and Forecasting 30, no. 1 (February 1, 2015): 115–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00120.1.
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Abstract A downslope windstorm on 1 December 2011 led to considerable damage along a narrow 50-km swath at the western base of the Wasatch Mountains in northern Utah. The strongest surface winds began suddenly at 0900 UTC, primarily in the southern portion of the damage zone. Surface winds reached their peak intensity with gusts to 45 m s−1 at ~1600 UTC, while the strongest winds shifted later to the northern end of the damage swath. The northward shift in strong surface winds relates to the rotation of synoptic-scale flow from northeasterly to easterly at crest level, controlled by an evolving anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking event. A rawinsonde released at ~1100 UTC in the midst of strong (>35 m s−1) easterly surface wind intersected a rotor and sampled the strong inversion that surmounted it. The windstorm’s evolution was further examined via Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations initialized from North American Mesoscale Model analyses ~54 h before the windstorm onset. The Control model simulation captured core features of the event, including the spatial extent and timing of the strongest surface winds. However, the model developed stronger mountain-wave breaking in the lee of the Wasatch, a broader zone of strong surface winds, and a downstream rotor located farther west than observed. A second simulation, in which the nearby east–west-oriented Uinta Mountains were reduced in elevation, developed weaker easterly flow across the Wasatch during the early stages of the event. This result suggests that the Uinta Mountains block and steer the initial northeasterly flow across the Wasatch.
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Waniha, Pascal F., Rita D. Roberts, James W. Wilson, Agnes Kijazi, and Benedicto Katole. "Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Deep Convection over Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa." Atmosphere 10, no. 11 (November 13, 2019): 706. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110706.
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Lake Victoria in East Africa supports the livelihood of thousands of fishermen and it is estimated that 3000–5000 human deaths occur per year over the lake. It is hypothesized that most of these fatalities are due to localized, severe winds produced by intense thunderstorms over the lake during the rainy season and larger scale, intense winds over the lake during the dry season. The intense winds produce a rough state of the lake (big wave heights) that cause fishing boats to capsize. In this region, weather radars have never been a primary tool for monitoring and nowcasting high impact weather. The Tanzania Meteorological Agency operates an S-band polarimetric radar in Mwanza, Tanzania, along the south shore of Lake Victoria. This radar collects high temporal and spatial resolution data that is now being used to detect and monitor the formation of deep convection over the lake and improve scientific understanding of storm dynamics and intensification. Nocturnal thunderstorms and convection initiation over the lake are well observed by the Mwanza radar and are strongly forced by lake and land breezes and gust fronts. Unexpected is the detection of clear air echo to ranges ≥100 km over the lake that makes it possible to observe low-level winds, gust fronts, and other convergence lines near the surface of the lake. The frequent observation of extensive clear air and low-level convergence lines opens up the opportunity to nowcast strong winds, convection initiation, and subsequent thunderstorm development and incorporate this information into a regional early warning system proposed for Lake Victoria Basin (LVB). Two weather events are presented illustrating distinctly different nocturnal convection initiation over the lake that evolve into intense morning thunderstorms. The evolution of these severe weather events was possible because of the Mwanza radar observations; satellite imagery alone was insufficient to provide prediction of storm initiation, growth, movement, and decay.
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Steptoe, Hamish, and Theodoros Economou. "Extreme wind return periods from tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 4 (April 29, 2021): 1313–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1313-2021.
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Abstract. We use high-resolution (4.4 km) numerical simulations of tropical cyclones to produce exceedance probability estimates for extreme wind (gust) speeds over Bangladesh. For the first time, we estimate equivalent return periods up to and including a 1-in-200 year event, in a spatially coherent manner over all of Bangladesh, by using generalised additive models. We show that some northern provinces, up to 200 km inland, may experience conditions equal to or exceeding a very severe cyclonic storm event (maximum wind speeds in ≥64 kn) with a likelihood equal to coastal regions less than 50 km inland. For the most severe super cyclonic storm events (≥120 kn), event exceedance probabilities of 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 events remain limited to the coastlines of southern provinces only. We demonstrate how the Bayesian interpretation of the generalised additive model can facilitate a transparent decision-making framework for tropical cyclone warnings.
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Bierbooms, Wim. "Investigation of spatial gusts with extreme rise time on the extreme loads of pitch-regulated wind turbines." Wind Energy 8, no. 1 (2004): 17–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.139.
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SHIRATO, Hiromichi, and Masaru MATSUMOTO. "TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CORRELATED PROPERTIES OF SURFACE PRESSURE AND GUST FORCES ON A RECTANGULAR SECTION IN VERTICAL FLUCTUATING WINDS." Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu A 62, no. 3 (2006): 669–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2208/jsceja.62.669.
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Da Costa Siqueira, Jessica, Mario G. Perhinschi, and Ghassan Al-Sinbol. "Simplified atmospheric model for UAV simulation and evaluation." International Journal of Intelligent Unmanned Systems 5, no. 2/3 (April 19, 2017): 63–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijius-07-2017-0007.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a simplified atmospheric model including constant wind, turbulence, gusts, and wind shear to provide simulation tools for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) design, testing, and evaluation within the West Virginia University (WVU) UAV simulation environment. Design/methodology/approach Analytical methods and experimental data are used to develop the simplified model for air mass motion as a superposition of four major components. Spatial gradients of relative air velocity vector projections are considered for modeling wind shear effects. The total contribution to relative air velocity from the four components in vehicle body axes is used within the WVU UAV simulation environment to calculate aerodynamic forces and moments. The simplified wind model is also interfaced with aircraft sub-system upset conditions models and different autonomous flight scenarios. Findings The simplified wind model developed provides simulation of different upset environment flight conditions with desirable levels of realism. It allows the testing, comparison, and evaluation of different trajectory tracking solutions for autonomous flight. Research limitations/implications The proposed simplified wind model facilitates the investigation of the effects of different atmospheric scenarios on the performance of trajectory generation algorithms and trajectory tracking control laws. Practical implications The proposed simplified wind model has been proved to be a high flexibility tool for simulation of UAVs under normal and abnormal flight conditions. It is expected to provide valuable support for the design and analysis of autonomous flight control laws. Originality/value This research effort provides a new capability for the advanced simulation of UAV autonomous flight with practically no additional computational cost. It adds an unprecedented level of detail and versatility to the UAV simulation toolkit within a very user-friendly framework aimed at supporting UAV design and analysis for optimal performance and safety under normal and abnormal flight conditions.
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Walter, Benjamin, Hendrik Huwald, Josué Gehring, Yves Bühler, and Michael Lehning. "Radar measurements of blowing snow off a mountain ridge." Cryosphere 14, no. 6 (June 3, 2020): 1779–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1779-2020.
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Abstract. Modelling and forecasting wind-driven redistribution of snow in mountainous regions with its implications on avalanche danger, mountain hydrology or flood hazard is still a challenging task often lacking in essential details. Measurements of drifting and blowing snow for improving process understanding and model validation are typically limited to point measurements at meteorological stations, providing no information on the spatial variability of horizontal mass fluxes or even the vertically integrated mass flux. We present a promising application of a compact and low-cost radar system for measuring and characterizing larger-scale (hundreds of metres) snow redistribution processes, specifically blowing snow off a mountain ridge. These measurements provide valuable information of blowing snow velocities, frequency of occurrence, travel distances and turbulence characteristics. Three blowing snow events are investigated, two in the absence of precipitation and one with concurrent precipitation. Blowing snow velocities measured with the radar are validated by comparison against wind velocities measured with a 3D ultra-sonic anemometer. A minimal blowing snow travel distance of 60–120 m is reached 10–20 % of the time during a snow storm, depending on the strength of the storm event. The relative frequency of transport distances decreases exponentially above the minimal travel distance, with a maximum measured distance of 280 m. In a first-order approximation, the travel distance increases linearly with the wind velocity, allowing for an estimate of a threshold wind velocity for snow particle entrainment and transport of 7.5–8.8 m s−1, most likely depending on the prevailing snow cover properties. Turbulence statistics did not allow a conclusion to be drawn on whether low-level, low-turbulence jets or highly turbulent gusts are more effective in transporting blowing snow over longer distances, but highly turbulent flows are more likely to bring particles to greater heights and thus influence cloud processes. Drone-based photogrammetry measurements of the spatial snow height distribution revealed that increased snow accumulation in the lee of the ridge is the result of the measured local blowing snow conditions.
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Chen, Yi-Ying, Barry Gardiner, Ferenc Pasztor, Kristina Blennow, James Ryder, Aude Valade, Kim Naudts, et al. "Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)." Geoscientific Model Development 11, no. 2 (March 2, 2018): 771–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-771-2018.
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Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.
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Nallapareddy, Anita, Alan Shapiro, and Jonathan J. Gourley. "A Climatology of Nocturnal Warming Events Associated with Cold-Frontal Passages in Oklahoma." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 50, no. 10 (October 2011): 2042–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-020.1.
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AbstractA sudden increase in temperature during the nighttime hours accompanies the passages of some cold fronts. In some cold front–associated warming events, the temperature can rise by as much as 10°C and can last from a few minutes to several hours. Previous studies suggest that these events are due to the downward transport of warmer air by the strong and gusty winds associated with the cold-frontal passages. In this study, a climatology of nocturnal warming events associated with cold fronts was created using 6 yr of Oklahoma Mesonetwork (Mesonet) data from 2003 to 2008. Nocturnal warming events associated with cold-frontal passages occurred surprisingly frequently across Oklahoma. Of the cold fronts observed in this study, 91.5% produced at least one warming event at an Oklahoma Mesonet station. The winter months accounted for the most events (37.9%), and the summer months accounted for the fewest (3.8%). When normalized by the monthly number of cold-frontal passages, the winter months still had the most number of warming events. The number of warming events increased rapidly from 2300 to 0200 UTC; thereafter, the number of events gradually decreased. A spatial analysis revealed that the frequency of warming events decreased markedly from west to east across the state. In contrast, the average magnitude of the warming increased from west to east. In contrast to control periods (associated with cold-frontal passages without nocturnal warming events), warming events were associated with weaker initial winds and stronger initial temperature inversions. Moreover, the nocturnal temperature inversion weakened more during warming events than during control periods and the surface wind speeds increased more during warming events than during control periods. These results are consistent with previous studies that suggest the warming events are due to the “mixing out” of the nocturnal temperature inversion.
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Laiti, L., D. Zardi, M. de Franceschi, and G. Rampanelli. "Analysis of the diurnal development of the <i>Ora del Garda</i> wind in the Alps from airborne and surface measurements." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 13, no. 7 (July 18, 2013): 19121–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-19121-2013.
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Abstract. A lake-breeze and valley-wind coupled circulation system, known as Ora del Garda, typically arises in the late morning from the northern shorelines of Lake Garda (southeastern Italian Alps), and then channels into the Sarca and Lakes valleys to the north. After flowing over an elevated saddle, in the early afternoon this wind breaks out from the west into the nearby Adige Valley, hindering the regular development of the local up-valley wind by producing a strong and gusty anomalous flow in the area. Two targeted flights of an equipped motorglider were performed in the morning and afternoon of 23 August 2001 in the above valleys, exploring selected vertical slices of the atmosphere, from the lake's shore to the area where the two local airflows interact. At the same time, surface observations were collected during an intensive field measurement campaign held in the interaction area, as well as from routinely-operated weather stations disseminated along the whole study area, allowing the analysis of the different stages of the Ora del Garda development. From airborne measurements, an atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) vertical structure, typical of deep Alpine valleys, was detected in connection with the wind flow, with rather shallow (∼500 m) convective mixed layers surmounted by deeper, weakly stable layers. On the other hand, close to the lake's shoreline the ABL was found to be stabilized down to very low heights, as an effect of the onshore advection of cold air by the lake breeze. Airborne potential temperature observations were mapped over high-resolution 3-D grids for each valley section explored by the flights, using a geostatistical technique called residual kriging (RK). RK-regridded fields revealed fine-scale features and inhomogeneities of ABL thermal structures associated with the complex thermally-driven wind field developing in the valleys. The combined analysis of surface observations and RK-interpolated fields revealed an irregular propagation of the lake-breeze front in the lower part of the valley, and cross-valley thermal asymmetries amenable both to the differential solar heating of the valley slopes and to the valley curvature in its upper part. The overflowing of the potentially cooler Ora del Garda air from the Lakes Valley in the afternoon produces a strong katabatic wind at the bottom of the underlying Adige Valley, which blows in cross-valley (i.e. westerly) direction and impinges on the opposite eastern valley sidewall. RK-regridded potential temperature field highlighted that this phenomenon gives origin to a "hydraulic jump" flow structure in the urban area north of the city of Trento, leading to the down-stream formation of a ∼1300 m deep well-mixed layer. The improved knowledge of the typical Ora del Garda flow patterns and associated ABL structures, deriving from the combined analysis of surface and airborne observations, has practical application in air quality forecasting for the study area, for it helps in the understanding of pollution transport and dispersion processes by thermally-driven winds in the region. Moreover, 3-D meteorological fields produced by RK are likely to be an excellent basis for comparison with results from high-resolution numerical simulations, as they provide a degree of spatial detail that is fully comparable to the spatial scales resolved by large-eddy simulations.
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Roumagnac, P., O. Pruvost, F. Chiroleu, and G. Hughes. "Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Bacterial Blight of Onion Caused by Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. allii." Phytopathology® 94, no. 2 (February 2004): 138–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/phyto.2004.94.2.138.
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Bacterial blight of onion is a severe disease, which emerged over the past decade in several onion-producing areas. This disease currently is observed in both the Old and New Worlds. Although the causative agent, Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. allii, is potentially seedborne, seed transmission and significance of seedborne initial inoculum for the development of bacterial blight of onion previously has not been assessed. This article describes experimental work designed to evaluate the biological importance of seedborne X. axonopodis pv. allii as an initial inoculum source, and examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of the disease. Over 3 years, outbreaks of bacterial blight of onion always were induced in experimental plots sown with naturally contaminated seed lots, with a contamination rate determined as 0.04%. Analyses of disease patterns indicated a likely seedborne origin for the inoculum associated with the early stages of epidemics. Spatial analyses performed with several statistical methods indicated aggregated patterns of disease incidence data. Primary foci enlarged over time, and a few distinct secondary foci sometimes were established after occurrence of wind-driven rains (with gusts up to 15 m s-1). Distances between primary and secondary foci ranged from less than 1 m (satellite foci) to 25 m. It remains possible that longdistance dispersal of inoculum was at least partly involved in the later stages of epidemics.
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Jokinen, P., A. Vajda, and H. Gregow. "The benefits of emergency rescue and reanalysis data in decadal storm damage assessment studies." Advances in Science and Research 12, no. 1 (June 1, 2015): 97–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-97-2015.
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Abstract. Studying changes in storm-induced forest damage in Finland has not been possible previously due to the lack of continuous, long series of impact data. We overcome this by combining emergency rescue data from the Finnish rescue services "PRONTO" (2011-) with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of wind gusts and soil temperatures to define exceedance thresholds for potential forest damage days. These thresholds were applied as a proxy for the period 1979–2013 in order to study the spatial and decadal characteristics of forest damage in Finland due to windstorms. The results indicated that the area most impacted by potential forest damage was the south-western part of Finland along the coast, with 1–10 damaging storm cases per year. A decadal examination highlighted a lull period in the number of potential forest damage days during the 1990s compared to the 1980s and 2000s, albeit no trend was evident. The inclusion of emergency rescue data allowed us for the first time to estimate the spatial distribution and decadal variations of potential forest damage days due to windstorms in Finland. The results achieved will encourage further development of thresholds for potential forest damage by including additional data sources and applying them to future climate scenarios.