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Journal articles on the topic 'Speciation and extinction'
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1
Bull, J. W., and M. Maron. "How humans drive speciation as well as extinction." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1833 (June 29, 2016): 20160600. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.0600.
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A central topic for conservation science is evaluating how human activities influence global species diversity. Humanity exacerbates extinction rates. But by what mechanisms does humanity drive the emergence of new species? We review human-mediated speciation, compare speciation and known extinctions, and discuss the challenges of using net species diversity as a conservation objective. Humans drive rapid evolution through relocation, domestication, hunting and novel ecosystem creation—and emerging technologies could eventually provide additional mechanisms. The number of species relocated, domesticated and hunted during the Holocene is of comparable magnitude to the number of observed extinctions. While instances of human-mediated speciation are known, the overall effect these mechanisms have upon speciation rates has not yet been quantified. We also explore the importance of anthropogenic influence upon divergence in microorganisms. Even if human activities resulted in no net loss of species diversity by balancing speciation and extinction rates, this would probably be deemed unacceptable. We discuss why, based upon ‘no net loss’ conservation literature—considering phylogenetic diversity and other metrics, risk aversion, taboo trade-offs and spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that evaluating speciation alongside extinction could result in more nuanced understanding of biosphere trends, clarifying what it is we actually value about biodiversity.
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Valentine, James W., and Timothy D. Walker. "Extinctions in a model taxonomic hierarchy." Paleobiology 13, no. 2 (1987): 193–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300008745.
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A computer model of background and mass extinctions in a taxonomic hierarchy has been used to study the effects of different extinction patterns in a search for clues as to the causes of actual extinction events. Model taxa at four levels were built up from speciation events in adaptive space according to rules of origination which seem plausible biologically. The frequency distribution of species among the three higher taxonomic levels in the model is similar to that in living marine taxa which have good fossil records. Three mass extinction patterns were imposed on the model after species diversity had attained equilibrium (i.e., when speciation = background extinction): random; bloc (contiguous niches were cleared); and clade (all members of selected higher taxa were removed). Effects on the taxonomic profile varied with pattern. Four of the five historical mass extinctions resemble the effects of the random pattern. End-Permian families were harder hit than those in the random model, but this may be a result of an extremely high species extinction level. It is concluded that the effect of extinctions on the taxonomic hierarchy provides a tool to help in understanding extinction causes.
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Hulbert, Richard C. "Taxonomic evolution in North American Neogene horses (subfamily Equinae): the rise and fall of an adaptive radiation." Paleobiology 19, no. 2 (1993): 216–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300015888.
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The 18 m.y. history of the subfamily Equinae (exclusive of Archaeohippus and “Parahippus”) in North America consisted of a 3-m.y. radiation phase, a 9-m.y. steady-state diversity phase, and a 6-m.y. reduction phase. During the steady-state phase, species richness varied between 14 and 20, with two maxima at about 13.5 and 6.5 Ma. Species richness of the tribes Hipparionini and Equini was about equal through the middle Miocene, but hipparionines consistently had more species in the late Miocene and early Pliocene. Overall mean species duration was 3.2 m.y. (n = 50), or an average extinction rate of 0.31 m.y.-1 During the radiation phase, speciation rates were very high (0.5 to 1.4 m.y.-1), while extinction rates were low (<0.10 m.y.-1). Speciation and extinction rates both averaged about 0.15 m.y.-1 during the steady-state phase, with extinction rates having more variation. Extinction rates increased fourfold during the reduction phase, while speciation rates declined slightly. Late Hemphillian extinctions affected both tribes severely, not just the three-toed hipparionines, and were correlated with global climatic change.
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Magañón-Puebla, Susana. "Diferentes tasas evolutivas entre grupos de angiospermas. Eudicotiledóneas." Botanical Sciences, no. 58 (April 27, 2017): 137. http://dx.doi.org/10.17129/botsci.1494.
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Applying analytical models to two clades, eudicotyledons and paleoherbs, three filogeny models were explored and analyzed with parameters that vary from low extinction rates to high speciation rates. Filogeny Model I suggest that the probability ty of obtaining a difference in species distribution, between the two sister clades, as the observed, or higher, varies between 15.2% with high speciation rates and 16.7% with low extinction rates. In Filogeny Model II the probability of obtaining a species distribution similar to the observed one or higher, varies between 15.7% with high speciation rates to 17.4% with low extinction rates. In contrast, probability of obtaining a species distribution like the observed or higher in Filogeny Model III varies from 2.5% with high speciation rates to 2.8% with low extinction rates. Accordingly with the tree Models, the probability of obtaining a numerical difference at the species level between eudicotyledons and its sister group are low. However, results suggest the eudicotyledons are characterize by higher evolutionary rates (speciation-extinction) compared with other groups of angiosperms.
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Chen, Youhua. "An island biogeography model for beta diversity and endemism: The roles of speciation, extinction and dispersal." International Journal of Biomathematics 08, no. 01 (January 2015): 1550011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793524515500114.
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A community composition island biogeography model was developed to explain and predict two community patterns (beta diversity and endemism) with the consideration of speciation, extinction and dispersal processes. Results showed that rate of speciation is positively and linearly associated with beta diversity and endemism, that is, increasing species rates typically could increase the percentage of both endemism and beta diversity. The influences of immigration and extinction rates on beta diversity and endemism are nonlinear, but with numerical simulation, I could observe that increasing extinction rates would lead to decreasing percentage of endemism and beta diversity. The role of immigration rate is very similar to that of speciation rate, having a positive relationship with beta diversity and endemism. Finally, I found that beta diversity is closely related to the percentage of endemism. The slope of this positive relationship is determined jointly by different combinations of speciation, extinction and immigration rates.
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Archibald, J. David. "The importance of phylogenetic analysis for the assessment of species turnover: a case history of Paleocene mammals in North America." Paleobiology 19, no. 1 (1993): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300012288.
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During the latest Cretaceous and the Paleocene in western North America, disappearance rates for mammalian genera track appearance rates, both reaching their peak in the early Paleocene (Puercan) following the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs. Some of the disappearances during this time were pseudoextinctions that resulted when ancestral species disappeared during speciation.Species-level cladistic analyses and a well-constrained biostratigraphic framework are required to study this form of pseudoextinction. Cladistic analyses show that monophyly cannot be established or rejected for some species because these species lack autapomorphies (uniquely derived character states) that unite their constituent members. Such taxa, termed metaspecies, are potential ancestors to species and higher clades with which they share a node in the cladogram.A hypothetical species-level cladistic analysis coupled with three different hypothetical biostratigraphies shows how different models of speciation (bifurcation, budding, or anagenesis) result in very different patterns of true versus pseudoextinction. Depending on the speciation model, true extinction can be overestimated by as much as a factor of four, raising the specter of mass extinction. Species-level studies for three early Tertiary mammalian taxa—taeniodont eutherians, taeniolabidid multituberculates, and periptychid ungulates—use the same procedures. They show that almost 25% of disappearances during the early Paleocene (Puercan) for species in the analysis were pseudoextinctions of metaspecies. Budding and anagenetic-like peripatric speciation, but not bifurcation, are seen in the three examples.Equating disappearance to true extinction can profoundly affect interpretations of faunal turnover, especially during mass extinctions or major faunal reorganizations. Some authors use pseudoextinction to describe the taxonomic rather than evolutionary disappearance of nonmonophyletic groups. Pseudoextinction, as used here refers only to the evolutionary disappearance of metaspecies via speciation. Both usages seem appropriate but should not be confounded.
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John Sepkoski, J. "Rates of speciation in the fossil record." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 353, no. 1366 (February 28, 1998): 315–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1998.0212.
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Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.
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Bennett, Dominic J., Mark D. Sutton, and Samuel T. Turvey. "Evolutionarily distinct “living fossils” require both lower speciation and lower extinction rates." Paleobiology 43, no. 1 (November 24, 2016): 34–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2016.36.
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AbstractAs a label for a distinct category of life, “living fossil” is controversial. The term has multiple definitions, and it is unclear whether the label can be genuinely used to delimit biodiversity. Even taking a purely phylogenetic perspective in which a proxy for the living fossil is evolutionary distinctness (ED), an inconsistency arises: Does it refer to “dead-end” lineages doomed to extinction or “panchronic” lineages that survive through multiple epochs? Recent tree-growth model studies indicate that speciation rates must have been unequally distributed among species in the past to produce the shape of the tree of life. Although an uneven distribution of speciation rates may create the possibility for a distinct group of living fossil lineages, such a grouping could only be considered genuine if extinction rates also show a consistent pattern, be it indicative of dead-end or panchronic lineages. To determine whether extinction rates also show an unequal distribution, we developed a tree-growth model in which the probability of speciation and extinction is a function of a tip’s ED. We simulated thousands of trees in which the ED function for a tip is randomly and independently determined for speciation and extinction rates. We find that simulations in which the most evolutionarily distinct tips have lower rates of speciation and extinction produce phylogenetic trees closest in shape to empirical trees. This implies that a distinct set of lineages with reduced rates of diversification, indicative of a panchronic definition, is required to create the shape of the tree of life.
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Stanley, Steven M. "Population size, extinction, and speciation: the fission effect in Neogene Bivalvia." Paleobiology 12, no. 1 (1986): 89–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300003006.
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The extinction of a species represents reduction of both geographic range and population size to zero. Most workers have focused on geographic range as a variable strongly affecting the vulnerability of established species to extinction, but Lyellian percentages for Neogene bivalve faunas of California and Japan suggest that population size is a more important variable along continental shelves. The data employed to reach this conclusion are Lyellian percentages for latest Pliocene (∼2 ma old) bivalve faunas of California and Japan (N = 245 species). These regions did not suffer heavy extinction during the recent Ice Age, and for each region the Lyellian percentage is 70%–71%.Discrepancies in population size appear to explain the following differences in survivorship to the Recent (Lyellian percentage) for three pairs of subgroups: (1) burrowing nonsiphonate species (42%) versus burrowing siphonate species (84%), which suffer less heavy predation; (2) burrowing nonsiphonate species of small size (73%) versus burrowing nonsiphonate species of large body size (96%); (3) Pectinacea (30%) versus other epifauna (71%), which suffer less heavy predation. During the Mesozoic Era, when predation was less effective in benthic settings, mean species duration for the Pectinacea was much greater (∼20 ma).Along the west coast of North and Central America, mean geographic range is greater for siphonate species of large body size than for siphonate species of small body size and greater still for pectinacean species. These ranges are inversely related to mean species longevity for the three groups, which indicates that geographic range is not of first-order importance in influencing species longevity. Species with nonplanktotrophic development neither exhibit narrow geographic ranges along the west coast of North and Central America nor have experienced high rates of extinction in California and Japan.Rates of extinction are so high for Neogene pectinaceans and nonsiphonate burrowers that without enjoying high rates of speciation these groups could not exist at the diversities they have maintained during the Neogene Period. They are apparently speciating rapidly because of the fission effect: the relatively frequent generation of new species from populations that are fragmented by heavy predation. Thus, ironically, there may be a tendency for high rates of speciation to be approximately offset by high rates of extinction. Only if mean population size for species in a particular group becomes extremely small is it likely to result in a high rate of extinction and a low rate of speciation—and hence a dramatic decline of the group. The fission effect may contribute to the general correlation in the animal world between rate of speciation and rate of extinction.
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Stanley, Steven M., Karen L. Wetmore, and James P. Kennett. "Macroevolutionary differences between the two major clades of Neogene planktonic foraminifera." Paleobiology 14, no. 3 (1988): 235–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011970.
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Being of especially high quality, the Neogene fossil record of planktonic foraminifera offers special opportunities for assessing patterns of extinction and speciation. A variety of metrics indicates that within this group the mean duration of lineages has been much shorter (rate of extinction has been higher) for the globorotaliid clade than for the globigerinid clade. Furthermore, in the globorotaliid clade rates of extinction and speciation have not been closely linked to changes in diversity, but rather have been relatively high even at times when diversity has undergone little change. Thus, the globorotaliid clade has undergone more rapid evolutionary turnover than the globigerinid clade. Data for living species reveal that neither geographic range nor temperature tolerance is the primary factor controlling lineage duration. On the other hand, there is evidence that lineages marked by low abundance (small population size) are relatively short-lived. The reason that globorotaliid lineages have generally survived for shorter intervals, on the average, may be that their populations have been less abundant and less stable. Usually they live deeper in the water column, where food is often sparse, and many flourish only in areas of upwelling. Furthermore, the globorotaliids lack symbiotic algae for nutritional support. The same ecological factors may have accelerated speciation in the globorotaliid clade, by causing species to be patchily distributed. Thus, population size and structure have been more important than geographic range in determining rates of extinction and speciation. This parallels the situation for Neogene marine bivalves.For planktonic foraminifera, as for Western Atlantic Bivalvia, the normal pattern of extinction was reversed in late Pliocene time, apparently in response to climatic cooling. The globigerinids suffered a sudden pulse of extinction. The deeper dwelling globorotaliids fared better; probably many of their species benefited from elevation of the seasonal thermocline into the photic zone. At the same time, rate of speciation declined in the globorotaliid clade, which supports the idea, inferred from the evolutionary history of marine bivalves, that an increase in the size and stability of populations should depress both rate of extinction and rate of speciation.
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Hansen, Thor A. "Early Tertiary radiation of marine molluscs and the long-term effects of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction." Paleobiology 14, no. 1 (1988): 37–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011787.
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The Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction reduced the gamma diversity of molluscs on the U.S. Gulf Coast from over 500 species in the late Maastrichtian to a little over 100 species in the early Danian. Gamma (total) diversity increased in a series of steps that generally tracked temperature, to a high of around 400 species in the late Middle Eocene, at which time diversity declined in the Late Eocene–Oligocene extinctions. The molluscan radiation occurred in at least two distinct phases: 1) an Initial Radiation Phase in which certain families underwent unusually high speciation, apparently filling ecological niches vacated by the extinction, followed by extinction of many of the species in these families in the late Danian; and, 2) a Secondary Radiation Phase where gamma diversity gradually increased and new genera gradually appeared. The fact that the gamma diversity of molluscs did not reach pre-extinction levels before the next extinction in the Late Eocene suggests that molluscan faunas may spend much of their evolutionary time recovering from these extinctions.
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Arbuckle, Kevin, and Michael P. Speed. "Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 44 (October 19, 2015): 13597–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509811112.
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The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians.
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Brée, Baptiste, Andrew J. Helmstetter, Kévin Bethune, Jean-Paul Ghogue, Bonaventure Sonké, and Thomas L. P. Couvreur. "Diversification of African Rainforest Restricted Clades: Piptostigmateae and Annickieae (Annonaceae)." Diversity 12, no. 6 (June 7, 2020): 227. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d12060227.
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African rainforests (ARFs) are species rich and occur in two main rainforest blocks: West/Central and East Africa. This diversity is suggested to be the result of recent diversification, high extinction rates and multiple vicariance events between west/central and East African forests. We reconstructed the diversification history of two subtribes (Annickieae and Piptostigmateae) from the ecologically dominant and diverse tropical rainforest plant family Annonaceae. Both tribes contain endemic taxa in the rainforests of West/Central and East Africa. Using a dated molecular phylogeny based on 32 nuclear markers, we estimated the timing of the origin of East African species. We then undertook several diversification analyses focusing on Piptostigmateae to infer variation in speciation and extinction rates, and test the impact of extinction events. Speciation in both tribes dated to the Pliocene and Pleistocene. In particular, Piptostigma (13 species) diversified mainly during the Pleistocene, representing one of the few examples of Pleistocene speciation in an African tree genus. Our results also provide evidence of an ARF fragmentation at the mid-Miocene linked to climatic changes across the region. Overall, our results suggest that continental-wide forest fragmentation during the Neogene (23.03–2.58 Myr), and potentially during the Pliocene, led to one or possibly two vicariance events within the ARF clade Piptostigmateae, in line with other studies. Among those tested, the best fitting diversification model was the one with an exponential speciation rate and no extinction. We did not detect any evidence of mass extinction events. This study gives weight to the idea that the ARF might not have been so negatively impacted by extinction during the Neogene, and that speciation mainly took place during the Pliocene and Pleistocene.
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Maurer, Brian A. "Diversity-dependent species dynamics: incorporating the effects of population-level processes on species dynamics." Paleobiology 15, no. 2 (1989): 133–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300009325.
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A general model of species dynamics must incorporate the effects of species number on the processes of speciation and extinction. Previous models make specific assumptions about these effects, but do not consider the effects of dynamics of lower level entities on speciation and extinction rates. A hierarchical model is developed which explicitly describes the effects of energy use by species on speciation and extinction rates. The effects of energy use are represented by parameters that characterize the average effects of energy use by each species in the biota on speciation and extinction rates. The dynamics of the model describe a sigmoidal increase in species number over time, as does the logistic model of species dynamics. However, the mechanisms of those dynamics are assumed to be different in the two models. Empirical analysis of a data set on the diversification of fossil Miocene horses suggests that the logistic and hierarchical models have similar descriptive power. The hierarchical model incorporates insights from recent considerations of the nature of a hierarchical theory of biology. Further progress in developing such a theory will depend on the success with which relationships among levels in the biological hierarchy are able to be defined.
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Etienne, Rampal S., Sara N. de Visser, Thijs Janzen, Jeanine L. Olsen, Han Olff, and James Rosindell. "Can clade age alone explain the relationship between body size and diversity?" Interface Focus 2, no. 2 (February 2012): 170–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2011.0075.
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One of the most striking patterns observed among animals is that smaller-bodied taxa are generally much more diverse than larger-bodied taxa. This observation seems to be explained by the mere fact that smaller-bodied taxa tend to have an older evolutionary origin and have therefore had more time to diversify. A few studies, based on the prevailing null model of diversification (i.e. the stochastic constant-rate birth–death model), have suggested that this is indeed the correct explanation, and body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates does not play a role. However, there are several potential shortcomings to these studies: a suboptimal statistical procedure and a relatively narrow range of body sizes in the analysed data. Here, we present a more coherent statistical approach, maximizing the likelihood of the constant-rate birth–death model with allometric scaling of speciation and extinction rates, given data on extant diversity, clade age and average body size in each clade. We applied our method to a dataset compiled from the literature that includes a wide range of Metazoan taxa (range from midges to elephants). We find that the higher diversity among small animals is indeed, partly, caused by higher clade age. However, it is also partly caused by the body-size dependence of speciation and extinction rates. We find that both the speciation rate and extinction rate decrease with body size such that the net diversification rate is close to 0. Even more interestingly, the allometric scaling exponent of speciation and extinction rates is approximately −0.25, which implies that the per generation speciation and extinction rates are independent of body size. This suggests that the observed relationship between diversity and body size pattern can be explained by clade age alone, but only if clade age is measured in generations rather than years. Thus, we argue that the most parsimonious explanation for the observation that smaller-bodied taxa are more diverse is that their evolutionary clock ticks faster.
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Zink, Robert M., John Klicka, and Brian R. Barber. "The tempo of avian diversification during the Quaternary." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 359, no. 1442 (February 29, 2004): 215–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1392.
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It is generally assumed that the Quaternary was a period of heightened diversification in temperate vertebrate organisms. Previous molecular systematics studies have challenged this assertion. We re–examined this issue in north temperate birds using log–lineage plots and distributions of sister–taxon distances. Log–lineage plots support earlier conclusions that avian diversification slowed during the Quaternary. To test plots of empirical sister–taxon distances we simulated three sets of phylogenies: constant speciation and extinction, a pulse of recent speciation, and a pulse of recent extinction. Previous opinions favour the model of recent speciation although our empirical dataset on 74 avian comparisons failed to reject a distribution derived from the constant and extinction models. Hence, it does not appear that the Quaternary was a period of exceptional rates of diversification, relative to the background rate.
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Crampton, James S., Roger A. Cooper, Michael Foote, and Peter M. Sadler. "Ephemeral species in the fossil record? Synchronous coupling of macroevolutionary dynamics in mid-Paleozoic zooplankton." Paleobiology 46, no. 1 (February 2020): 123–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2020.3.
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AbstractWe document a positive and strong correlation between speciation and extinction rates in the Paleozoic zooplankton graptoloid clade, between 481 and 419 Ma. This correlation has a magnitude of ~0.35–0.45 and manifests at a temporal resolution of <50 kyr and, for part of our data set, <25 kyr. It cannot be explained as an artifact of the method used to measure rates, sampling bias, bias resulting from construction of the time series, autocorrelation, underestimation of species durations, or undetected phyletic evolution. Correlations are approximately equal during the Ordovician and Silurian, despite the very different speciation and extinction regimes prevailing during these two periods, and correlation is strongest in the shortest-lived cohorts of species.We infer that this correlation reflects approximately synchronous coupling of speciation and extinction in the graptoloids on timescales of a few tens of thousands of years. Almost half of graptoloid species in our data set have durations of <0.5 Myr, and previous studies have demonstrated that, during times of background extinction, short-lived species were selectively targeted by extinction. These observations may be consistent with the model of ephemeral speciation, whereby new species are inferred to form constantly and at high rate, but most of them disappear rapidly through extinction or reabsorption into the ancestral lineage. Diversity dependence with a lag of ~1 Myr, also documented elsewhere, may reflect a subsequent and relatively slow, competitive dynamic that governed those species that dispersed beyond their originating water mass and escaped the ephemeral species filter.
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Greenberg, Dan A., and Arne Ø. Mooers. "Linking speciation to extinction: Diversification raises contemporary extinction risk in amphibians." Evolution Letters 1, no. 1 (May 2017): 40–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/evl3.4.
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Pyron, R. Alexander, and John J. Wiens. "Large-scale phylogenetic analyses reveal the causes of high tropical amphibian diversity." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280, no. 1770 (November 7, 2013): 20131622. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1622.
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Many groups show higher species richness in tropical regions but the underlying causes remain unclear. Despite many competing hypotheses to explain latitudinal diversity gradients, only three processes can directly change species richness across regions: speciation, extinction and dispersal. These processes can be addressed most powerfully using large-scale phylogenetic approaches, but most previous studies have focused on small groups and recent time scales, or did not separate speciation and extinction rates. We investigate the origins of high tropical diversity in amphibians, applying new phylogenetic comparative methods to a tree of 2871 species. Our results show that high tropical diversity is explained by higher speciation in the tropics, higher extinction in temperate regions and limited dispersal out of the tropics compared with colonization of the tropics from temperate regions. These patterns are strongly associated with climate-related variables such as temperature, precipitation and ecosystem energy. Results from models of diversity dependence in speciation rate suggest that temperate clades may have lower carrying capacities and may be more saturated (closer to carrying capacity) than tropical clades. Furthermore, we estimate strikingly low tropical extinction rates over geological time scales, in stark contrast to the dramatic losses of diversity occurring in tropical regions presently.
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Gompert, Zachariah. "Phenotypic Dimensions of Reproductive Isolation Between Northern and Melissa Blue Butterflies in the Rocky Mountains." UW National Parks Service Research Station Annual Reports 32 (January 1, 2009): 97–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.13001/uwnpsrc.2009.3761.
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Biological diversity results from speciation, which generally involves the splitting of an ancestral species into descendant species due to adaptation to different niches or the evolution of reproductive incompatibilities (Coyne and Orr 2004). The diverse flora and fauna of the world, including the native inhabitants of the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), exist as a result of the speciation process. The central role speciation plays in generating biological diversity imbues importance to our understanding of this process. The general importance of a thorough understanding of speciation is amplified because of the current high rates of extinction on the planet. This is because a long term solution to the present extinction crisis will require maintaining the processes that create species (speciation) not simply preventing extinction. However, many central questions regarding speciation remain to be answered. One fundamental question in speciation research is whether diverging species are isolated (i.e., prevented from interbreeding) due to differences in one, a few, or many characters and whether each of these character differences results from different alleles at a few or many genes. For example, speciation and reproductive isolation might involve divergence along multiple phenotypic axes, such as mate preference, habitat use or preference, and phenology (the timing of life-cycle events). Alternatively, isolation could result from differentiation of a single character. I propose to address this question by assessing patterns of variation for a suite of characters across a hybrid zone between two butterfly species. This is possible because patterns of character variation across hybrids zones allow for inferences about reproductive isolation (Barton and Hewitt 1985).
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Gompert, Zachariah. "Phenotypic Dimensions of Reproductive Isolation Between Northern and Melissa Blue Butterflies in the Rocky Mountains." UW National Parks Service Research Station Annual Reports 33 (January 1, 2011): 101–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.13001/uwnpsrc.2011.3795.
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Biological diversity results from speciation, which generally involves the splitting of an ancestral species into descendant species due to adaptation to different niches or the evolution of reproductive incompatibilities (Coyne and Orr 2004). The diverse flora and fauna of the world, including the native inhabitants of the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), exist as a result of the speciation process. The central role speciation plays in generating biological diversity imbues importance to our understanding of this process. The general importance of a thorough understanding of speciation is amplified because of the current high rates of extinction on the planet. This is because a long term solution to the present extinction crisis will require maintaining the processes that create species (speciation) not simply preventing extinction. However, many central questions regarding speciation remain to be answered. One fundamental question in speciation research is whether diverging species are isolated (i.e., prevented from interbreeding) due to differences in one, a few, or many characters and whether each of these character differences results from different alleles at a few or many genes. For example, speciation and reproductive isolation might involve divergence along multiple phenotypic axes, such as mate preference, habitat use or preference, and phenology (the timing of life-cycle events). Alternatively, isolation could result from differentiation of a single character. I propose to address this question by assessing patterns of variation for a suite of characters across a hybrid zone between two butterfly species. This is possible because patterns of character variation across hybrids zones allow for inferences about reproductive isolation (Barton and Hewitt 1985).
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Raup, David M. "Mathematical models of cladogenesis." Paleobiology 11, no. 1 (1985): 42–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011386.
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The evolutionary pattern of speciation and extinction in any biologic group may be described by a variety of mathematical models. These models provide a framework for describing the history of taxonomic diversity (clade shape) and other aspects of larger evolutionary patterns. The simplest model assumes time homogeneity: that is, speciation and extinction probabilities are constant through time and within taxonomic groups. In some cases the homogeneous model provides a good fit to real world paleontological data, but in other cases the model serves only as a null hypothesis that must be rejected before more complex models can be applied. In cases where the homogeneous model does not fit the data, time-inhomogeneous models can be formulated that specify change, regular or episodic, in speciation and extinction probabilities. An appendix provides a list of the most useful equations based on the homogeneous model.
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Friend, Dana S., Brendan M. Anderson, and Warren D. Allmon. "Geographic contingency, not species sorting, dominates macroevolutionary dynamics in an extinct clade of neogastropods (Volutospina; Volutidae)." Paleobiology 47, no. 2 (March 2021): 236–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2020.60.
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AbstractRates of speciation and extinction are often linked to many ecological factors, traits (emergent and nonemergent) such as environmental tolerance, body size, feeding type, and geographic range. Marine gastropods in particular have been used to examine the role of larval dispersal in speciation. However, relatively few studies have been conducted placing larval modes in species-level phylogenetic context. Those that have, have not incorporated fossil data, while landmark macroevolutionary studies on fossil clades have not considered both phylogenetic context and net speciation (speciation–extinction) rates. This study utilizes Eocene volutid Volutospina species from the U.S. Gulf Coastal Plain and the Hampshire Basin, U.K., to explore the relationships among larval mode, geographic range, and duration. Based on the phylogeny of these Volutospina, we calculated speciation and extinction rates in order to compare the macroevolutionary effects of larval mode. Species with planktotrophic larvae had a median duration of 9.7 Myr, which compared significantly to 4.7 Myr for those with non-planktotrophic larvae. Larval mode did not significantly factor into geographic-range size, but U.S. and U.K. species do differ, indicating a locality-specific component to maximum geographic-range size. Non-planktotrophs (NPTs)were absent among the Volutospina species during the Paleocene–early Eocene. The relative proportions of NPTs increased in the early middle Eocene, and the late Eocene was characterized by disappearance of planktotrophs (PTs). The pattern of observed lineage diversity shows an increasing preponderance of NPTs; however, this is clearly driven by a dramatic extinction of PTs, rather than higher NPT speciation rates during the late Eocene. This study adds nuance to paleontology's understanding of the macroevolutionary consequences of larval mode.
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Birand, Aysegul, Aaron Vose, and Sergey Gavrilets. "Patterns of Species Ranges, Speciation, and Extinction." American Naturalist 179, no. 1 (January 2012): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/663202.
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Otto, Sarah P. "Adaptation, speciation and extinction in the Anthropocene." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285, no. 1891 (November 14, 2018): 20182047. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2047.
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Humans have dramatically altered the planet over the course of a century, from the acidity of our oceans to the fragmentation of our landscapes and the temperature of our climate. Species find themselves in novel environments, within communities assembled from never before encountered mixtures of invasives and natives. The speed with which the biotic and abiotic environment of species has changed has already altered the evolutionary trajectory of species, a trend that promises to escalate. In this article, I reflect upon this altered course of evolution. Human activities have reshaped selection pressures, favouring individuals that better survive in our built landscapes, that avoid our hunting and fishing, and that best tolerate the species that we have introduced. Human-altered selection pressures have also modified how organisms live and move through the landscape, and even the nature of reproduction and genome structure. Humans are also shaping selection pressures at the species level, and I discuss how species traits are affecting both extinction and speciation rates in the Anthropocene.
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Stanley, Steven M. "Rates of evolution." Paleobiology 11, no. 1 (1985): 13–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011362.
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For some higher taxa, species can be identified in the fossil record with a high degree of reliability. The great geological durations of species indicate that phyletic evolution is normally so slow that little change occurs within a lineage during 105–107 generations. Failure to recognize sibling species in the fossil record has no bearing on this conclusion because they embody virtually no morphological change. Although slowness is the rule, we have no more precise assessment of morphological rates of phyletic evolution for any major taxon. Morphological data that have been assembled to assess rates of phyletic evolution have been meager, unrepresentative, and predominantly reflective of nothing more than body size. Net selection pressures within long segments of phylogeny—even ones that embrace large amounts of evolution—are infinitesimal and seemingly unsustainable against random fluctuations. This suggests that natural selection operates in a highly episodic fashion.Rates of adaptive radiation and extinction at the species level can be estimated for many taxa and, from them, rates of speciation in adaptive radiation. Species selection should universally tend to increase rate of speciation and decrease rate of extinction, yet these rates are positively correlated in the animal world, apparently because they are linked by common controls: both rate of speciation and rate of extinction seem to increase with level of stereotypical behavior and to decrease with dispersal ability. Only a few “supertaxa” have been able to combine high rates of speciation with moderate rates of extinction.
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Knope, Matthew L., Andrew M. Bush, Luke O. Frishkoff, Noel A. Heim, and Jonathan L. Payne. "Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance." Science 367, no. 6481 (February 27, 2020): 1035–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aax6398.
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Ecological differentiation is correlated with taxonomic diversity in many clades, and ecological divergence is often assumed to be a cause and/or consequence of high speciation rate. However, an analysis of 30,074 genera of living marine animals and 19,992 genera of fossil marine animals indicates that greater ecological differentiation in the modern oceans is actually associated with lower rates of origination over evolutionary time. Ecologically differentiated clades became taxonomically diverse over time because they were better buffered against extinction, particularly during mass extinctions, which primarily affected genus-rich, ecologically homogeneous clades. The relationship between ecological differentiation and taxonomic richness was weak early in the evolution of animals but has strengthened over geological time as successive extinction events reshaped the marine fauna.
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Sakamoto, Manabu, Michael J. Benton, and Chris Venditti. "Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 18 (April 18, 2016): 5036–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1521478113.
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Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event.
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Cermeño, Pedro. "Marine planktonic microbes survived climatic instabilities in the past." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279, no. 1728 (July 20, 2011): 474–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.1151.
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In the geological past, changes in climate and tectonic activity are thought to have spurred the tempo of evolutionary change among major taxonomic groups of plants and animals. However, the extent to which these historical contingencies increased the risk of extinction of microbial plankton species remains largely unknown. Here, I analyse fossil records of marine planktonic diatoms and calcareous nannoplankton over the past 65 million years from the world oceans and show that the probability of species' extinction is not correlated with secular changes in climatic instability. Further supporting these results, analyses of genera survivorship curves based on fossil data concurred with the predictions of a birth–death model that simulates the extinction of genera through time assuming stochastically constant rates of speciation and extinction. However, my results also show that these marine microbes responded to exceptional climatic contingencies in a manner that appears to have promoted net diversification. These results highlight the ability of marine planktonic microbes to survive climatic instabilities in the geological past, and point to different mechanisms underlying the processes of speciation and extinction in these micro-organisms.
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Fields, Brian D., Adrian L. Melott, John Ellis, Adrienne F. Ertel, Brian J. Fry, Bruce S. Lieberman, Zhenghai Liu, Jesse A. Miller, and Brian C. Thomas. "Supernova triggers for end-Devonian extinctions." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 35 (August 18, 2020): 21008–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013774117.
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The Late Devonian was a protracted period of low speciation resulting in biodiversity decline, culminating in extinction events near the Devonian–Carboniferous boundary. Recent evidence indicates that the final extinction event may have coincided with a dramatic drop in stratospheric ozone, possibly due to a global temperature rise. Here we study an alternative possible cause for the postulated ozone drop: a nearby supernova explosion that could inflict damage by accelerating cosmic rays that can deliver ionizing radiation for up to∼100ky. We therefore propose that the end-Devonian extinctions were triggered by supernova explosions at∼20 pc, somewhat beyond the “kill distance” that would have precipitated a full mass extinction. Such nearby supernovae are likely due to core collapses of massive stars; these are concentrated in the thin Galactic disk where the Sun resides. Detecting either of the long-lived radioisotopesSm146orPu244in one or more end-Devonian extinction strata would confirm a supernova origin, point to the core-collapse explosion of a massive star, and probe supernova nucleosynthesis. Other possible tests of the supernova hypothesis are discussed.
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de Vos, Jurriaan M., Colin E. Hughes, Gerald M. Schneeweiss, Brian R. Moore, and Elena Conti. "Heterostyly accelerates diversification via reduced extinction in primroses." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1784 (June 7, 2014): 20140075. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0075.
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The exceptional species diversity of flowering plants, exceeding that of their sister group more than 250-fold, is especially evident in floral innovations, interactions with pollinators and sexual systems. Multiple theories, emphasizing flower–pollinator interactions, genetic effects of mating systems or high evolvability, predict that floral evolution profoundly affects angiosperm diversification. However, consequences for speciation and extinction dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate trajectories of species diversification focusing on heterostyly, a remarkable floral syndrome where outcrossing is enforced via cross-compatible floral morphs differing in placement of their respective sexual organs. Heterostyly evolved at least 20 times independently in angiosperms. Using Darwin's model for heterostyly, the primrose family, we show that heterostyly accelerates species diversification via decreasing extinction rates rather than increasing speciation rates, probably owing to avoidance of the negative genetic effects of selfing. However, impact of heterostyly appears to differ over short and long evolutionary time-scales: the accelerating effect of heterostyly on lineage diversification is manifest only over long evolutionary time-scales, whereas recent losses of heterostyly may prompt ephemeral bursts of speciation. Our results suggest that temporal or clade-specific conditions may ultimately determine the net effects of specific traits on patterns of species diversification.
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Hey, Jody. "Using Phylogenetic Trees to Study Speciation and Extinction." Evolution 46, no. 3 (June 1992): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2409633.
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Vamosi, Jana C., Susana Magallón, Itay Mayrose, Sarah P. Otto, and Hervé Sauquet. "Macroevolutionary Patterns of Flowering Plant Speciation and Extinction." Annual Review of Plant Biology 69, no. 1 (April 29, 2018): 685–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040348.
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Stadler, T. "Recovering speciation and extinction dynamics based on phylogenies." Journal of Evolutionary Biology 26, no. 6 (May 13, 2013): 1203–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12139.
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Pagel, Mark. "Evolutionary trees can’t reveal speciation and extinction rates." Nature 580, no. 7804 (April 2020): 461–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-01021-4.
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Alroy, John. "A more precise speciation and extinction rate estimator." Paleobiology 41, no. 4 (September 2015): 633–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2015.26.
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AbstractA new turnover rate metric is introduced that combines simplicity and precision. Like the related three-timer and gap-filler equations, it involves first identifying a cohort of taxa sampled in the time interval preceding the one of interest (call the intervalsi0andi1). Taxa sampled ini0andi1are two-timers (t2); those sampled ini0andi2but noti1are part-timers (p); and taxa sampled only in eitheri1,i2, ori3are newly notated here as eithers1,s2, ors3. The gap-filler extinction proportion can be reformulated as (s1−s3)/(t2+p). The method proposed here is to substitutes3with the second-highest of the three counts when the expected orderings1≥s2≥s3is violated. In simulation, this new estimator yields values that are highly correlated with those produced by the gap-filler equation but more precise. In particular, it rarely produces highly negative values even when sample sizes are quite small. It is mildly upwards biased when sampling is extremely poor and turnover rates are extremely low, but it is otherwise highly accurate. Examples of Phanerozoic extinction rates for four major marine invertebrate groups are given to illustrate the method’s improved precision. Based on the results, the procedure is recommended for general use.
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Hey, Jody. "USING PHYLOGENETIC TREES TO STUDY SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION." Evolution 46, no. 3 (June 1992): 627–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1558-5646.1992.tb02071.x.
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Rosenzweig, Michael L., and Sarah Vetault. "Calculating speciation and extinction rates in fossil clades." Evolutionary Ecology 6, no. 1 (January 1992): 90–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02285336.
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Foley, R. A. "Speciation, extinction and climatic change in hominid evolution." Journal of Human Evolution 26, no. 4 (April 1994): 275–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jhev.1994.1017.
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Wang, Shaopeng, Anping Chen, Jingyun Fang, and Stephen W. Pacala. "Speciation Rates Decline through Time in Individual-Based Models of Speciation and Extinction." American Naturalist 182, no. 3 (September 2013): E83—E93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/671184.
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Beavan, Alan J. S., Davide Pisani, and Philip C. J. Donoghue. "Diversification dynamics of total-, stem-, and crown-groups are compatible with molecular clock estimates of divergence times." Science Advances 7, no. 24 (June 2021): eabf2257. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf2257.
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Molecular evolutionary time scales are expected to predate the fossil evidence, but, particularly for major evolutionary radiations, they can imply extremely protracted stem lineages predating the origin of living clades, leading to claims of systematic overestimation of divergence times. We use macroevolutionary birth-death models to describe the range of total-group and crown-group ages expected under constant rates of speciation and extinction. We extend current predictions on origination times for crown- and total-groups, and extinction of stem-groups, demonstrating that there is broad variance in these predictions. Under constant rates of speciation and extinction, we show that the distribution of expected arthropod total-group ages is consistent with molecular clock estimates. The fossil record cannot be read literally, and our results preclude attempts to interpret the antiquity of clades based on the co-occurrence of stem- and crown-representatives.
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Thomson, Robert C., Phillip Q. Spinks, and H. Bradley Shaffer. "A global phylogeny of turtles reveals a burst of climate-associated diversification on continental margins." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 7 (February 8, 2021): e2012215118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012215118.
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Living turtles are characterized by extraordinarily low species diversity given their age. The clade’s extensive fossil record indicates that climate and biogeography may have played important roles in determining their diversity. We investigated this hypothesis by collecting a molecular dataset for 591 individual turtles that, together, represent 80% of all turtle species, including representatives of all families and 98% of genera, and used it to jointly estimate phylogeny and divergence times. We found that the turtle tree is characterized by relatively constant diversification (speciation minus extinction) punctuated by a single threefold increase. We also found that this shift is temporally and geographically associated with newly emerged continental margins that appeared during the Eocene−Oligocene transition about 30 million years before present. In apparent contrast, the fossil record from this time period contains evidence for a major, but regional, extinction event. These seemingly discordant findings appear to be driven by a common global process: global cooling and drying at the time of the Eocene−Oligocene transition. This climatic shift led to aridification that drove extinctions in important fossil-bearing areas, while simultaneously exposing new continental margin habitat that subsequently allowed for a burst of speciation associated with these newly exploitable ecological opportunities.
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Harvey, Paul H., and Sean Nee. "New uses for new phylogenies." European Review 1, no. 1 (January 1993): 11–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s106279870000034x.
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Comparison of the molecular structure of genetic material from living species reveals evolutionary relationships, and estimates of dates when pairs of species last shared a common ancestor. The resulting evolutionary trees, which are accumulating rapidly in the literature to complement those trees produced from fossil records, can be used to reveal hitherto unsuspected patterns in the evolutionary record. In particular, the trees can be analysed to show when rates of speciation and extinction were abnormally high or low. Together with estimates of ancestral character states and environments, these data throw new light on the reasons for speciation and extinction. This article describes how statistical methods are being developed and used to analyse molecular phylogenies.
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McInnes, Lynsey, C. David L. Orme, and A. Purvis. "Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?" Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278, no. 1722 (March 23, 2011): 3294–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2011.0241.
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Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a—probably untenable—model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification ‘rules’ and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.
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Rolland, Jonathan, Frédéric Jiguet, Knud Andreas Jønsson, Fabien L. Condamine, and Hélène Morlon. "Settling down of seasonal migrants promotes bird diversification." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1784 (June 7, 2014): 20140473. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0473.
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How seasonal migration originated and impacted diversification in birds remains largely unknown. Although migratory behaviour is likely to affect bird diversification, previous studies have not detected any effect. Here, we infer ancestral migratory behaviour and the effect of seasonal migration on speciation and extinction dynamics using a complete bird tree of life. Our analyses infer that sedentary behaviour is ancestral, and that migratory behaviour evolved independently multiple times during the evolutionary history of birds. Speciation of a sedentary species into two sedentary daughter species is more frequent than speciation of a migratory species into two migratory daughter species. However, migratory species often diversify by generating a sedentary daughter species in addition to the ancestral migratory one. This leads to an overall higher migratory speciation rate. Migratory species also experience lower extinction rates. Hence, although migratory species represent a minority (18.5%) of all extant birds, they have a higher net diversification rate than sedentary species. These results suggest that the evolution of seasonal migration in birds has facilitated diversification through the divergence of migratory subpopulations that become sedentary, and illustrate asymmetrical diversification as a mechanism by which diversification rates are decoupled from species richness.
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Aldous, David. "Darwin's log: a toy model of speciation and extinction." Journal of Applied Probability 32, no. 2 (June 1995): 279–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3215288.
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Stochastic models for the origin and extinction of species have been rather neglected in applied probability. As an alternative to modelling speciation and extinction as intrinsically random, I shall describe and show simulations of a rulebased model. This involves mathematical representations of notions such as genetic type of species, environmental niche, fitness of a species in a niche, and adaptation. There are underlying random mechanisms for changes of niche sizes and for disconnection and reconnection of geographical regions, and these ultimately drive the evolution of species.Other approaches to mathematical modelling of evolution are briefly mentioned.
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Aldous, David. "Darwin's log: a toy model of speciation and extinction." Journal of Applied Probability 32, no. 02 (June 1995): 279–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200102785.
Full textAbstract:
Stochastic models for the origin and extinction of species have been rather neglected in applied probability. As an alternative to modelling speciation and extinction as intrinsically random, I shall describe and show simulations of a rulebased model. This involves mathematical representations of notions such as genetic type of species, environmental niche, fitness of a species in a niche, and adaptation. There are underlying random mechanisms for changes of niche sizes and for disconnection and reconnection of geographical regions, and these ultimately drive the evolution of species. Other approaches to mathematical modelling of evolution are briefly mentioned.
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Maddison, Wayne P., Peter E. Midford, and Sarah P. Otto. "Estimating a Binary Character's Effect on Speciation and Extinction." Systematic Biology 56, no. 5 (October 1, 2007): 701–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10635150701607033.
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Ricklefs, Robert E. "Reconciling Diversification: Random Pulse Models of Speciation and Extinction." American Naturalist 184, no. 2 (August 2014): 268–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/676642.
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Hohna, S., T. Stadler, F. Ronquist, and T. Britton. "Inferring Speciation and Extinction Rates under Different Sampling Schemes." Molecular Biology and Evolution 28, no. 9 (April 11, 2011): 2577–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msr095.
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