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Altmann, Anton. "A statistical approach to sports betting." Thesis, City University London, 2004. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8431/.
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While gambling on sports fixtures is a popular activity, for the majority of gamblers it is not a profitable one. In order to make a consistent profit through gambling, one of the requirements is the ability to assess accurate probabilities for the outcomes of the events upon which one wishes to place bets. Through experience of betting, familiarity with certain sports and a natural aptitude for estimating probabilities, a small number of gamblers are able to do this. This thesis also attempts to achieve this but through purely scientific means. There are three main areas covered in this thesis. These are the market for red and yellow cards in Premier League soccer, the market for scores in American football (NFL) and the market for scores in US Basketball (NBA). There are several issues that must be considered when attempting to fit a statistical model to any of these betting markets. These are introduced in the early stages of this thesis along with some previously suggested solutions. Among these, for example, is the importance of obtaining estimates of team characteristics that reflect the belief that these characteristics adjust over time. It is also important to devise measures of evaluating the successo f any model and to be able to comparet he predictive abilities of different models for the same market. A general method is described which is suitable for modelling the sporting markets that are featured in this thesis. This method is adapted from a previous study on UK soccer results and involves the maximisation of a likelihood function. In order to make predictions that have any chance of competing with the odds supplied by professional bookmakers, this modelling process must be expanded to reflect the idiosyncrasies of each sport. With the market for red and yellow cards in Premier League soccer matches, in addition to considering the characteristics of the two teams in the match, one must also consider the effect of the referee. It is also discovered that the average booking rate for Premier League soccer matches varies significantly throughout the course of a season. The unusual scoring system used in the NFL means that a histogram of the final scores for match results does not resemble any standard statistical distribution. There is also a wealth of data available for every NFL match besides the final score. It is worth investigating whether by exploiting this additional past data, more accurate predictions for future matches can be obtained. The analysis of basketball considers the busier schedule of games that NBA teams face, compared to NFL or Premier League soccer teams. The result of one match may plausibly be affected by the number of games that the team has had to play in the days immediately before the match. Furthermore, data is available giving the scores of the game at various stages throughout the match. By using this data, one can assess to what extent, and in which situations, the scoring rate varies during a match. These issues, among many others, are addressed during this thesis. In each case a model is devised and a betting strategy is simulated by comparing model predictions with odds that were supplied by professional bookmakers prior to fixtures. The limitations of each model are discussed and possible extensions of the analysis are suggested throughout.
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Thaysen, Maren. "Sportwetten in Deutschland : zur rechtlichen Zulässigkeit des neuen Staatsmonopols und eines liberalisierten Sportwettenmarktes /." Baden-Baden (Ger.) : Nomos, 2009. http://d-nb.info/99392431X/04.
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Turton, Felix. "A study of inefficiency and arbitrage opportunity an empirical analysis of the fixed and demand-based betting market /." Diss., Connect to the thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10066/1457.
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DiFilippo, Michael D. "Early Season Inefficiencies in the NFL Sports Betting Market." Ohio University Honors Tutorial College / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1340067110.
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Bernier, Christophe. "Forecasting Real-Time Win Probability in NHL Games." Thesis, Boston College, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108029.
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Thesis advisor: Christopher MaxwellUncertainty is a key part of any sports game; without it, there is little reason to be interested in the outcome. This thesis attempts to quantify the uncertainty inherent in NHL hockey games by building a real-time win probability model that estimates both teams’ likelihood of winning based on what has happened in the game so far. The model is built using historical data from the 2009-2010 season all the way to the 2016-2017 season. Given the differential and the time left, the model evaluates historical data for that specific game-state and calculates a win probability. The model also uses a multi-regression approach to incorporate pre-game Vegas odds as a way to factor the strength of both teams; to my knowledge, this is the first publicly available hockey win probability model to do so. Finally, the model also factors in elements unique to the sport of hockey, like power plays and shootout periods
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2018
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Departmental Honors
Discipline: Economics
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Chin, Daniel Mark. "Essays in Sports Economics." Scholar Commons, 2012. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4008.
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The study of economics is based on key concepts such as incentives, efficiency, marginality and tradeoffs. Economic research has hypothesized and tested for how economic agents behave after taking each of these into account. In order for agents to meet their objectives it is sometimes the case that they intentionally keep their behaviors out of sight. However, economic theory can be used to search for patterns of observed behaviors from which the unobserved behaviors can be inferred. This dissertation performs this kind of analysis by observing the behavior of sports participants.
Chapter 1 is an application of Becker's (1968) economic model of crime by using an econometric model to search for the presence of National Basketball Association (NBA) referees who bet on NBA games. The placement of these bets is not observed since a referee who bets on a game does so illegally and therefore hides his betting activity to prevent detection. A referee who places a bet on a game he also officiates has an incentive to manipulate to improve his chances of winning the bet. At the same time he should also be mindful to manipulate in a way that lowers his chances of being detected. The referee's observed behaviors through detailed play-by-play data are used to look for patterns hypothesized to be consistent with manipulation. The results suggest that former NBA referee Tim Donaghy, who was found to have bet on NBA games, did behave in ways consistent with manipulation. One other referee also appears to engage in the same type of behavior but stops once Donaghy is detected.
Chapter 2 is an application of Fama's (1970) Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Typically, the EMH is tested in the financial markets but some research tests for it in the sports betting markets so that the question becomes whether or not the betting market odds fully reflect all of the available relevant information. This chapter tests to see how completely National Football League (NFL) bettors use information called the circadian advantage. This occurs when a game is played in the evening, Eastern Time, between teams that are based on opposite coasts and always favors the better rested West Coast team. A regression model designed to test for market efficiency finds that the advantage is not fully reflected in the odds so that bets on the West Coast team are underpriced. In a majority of games that involve a circadian advantage most of the money is wagered on the overpriced East Coast team. A conclusion that ties these results together is that the bookmakers restrict the amount bet from informed bettors who tend to win their bets and who are aware of the circadian advantage, and adjust the odds just enough to bait uninformed bettors who are unaware of the circadian advantage into placing wagers on the team that is overpriced. Given these dynamics, it is the bookmakers who profit from the information contained in the circadian advantage.
Chapter 3 revisits the NFL betting market but instead estimates the extent to which bettors place wagers based on sentiment for a team that is unrelated to relevant measures of relative performance along the lines of speculative investment outlined by Graham and Dodd in 1934 (2009). The results show that more bets tend to be placed on teams for which bettors have high sentiment and fewer bets are placed on teams for which bettors have low sentiment. However, the market odds appear to be using sentiment unbiasedly, leading to the conclusion that contrarian bettors place wagers opposite the sentimental bettors. While the market as a whole is efficient in the use of sentiment, losers tend to be bettors who wager with sentiment and winners tend to be bettors who wager against sentiment.
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Iland, Damien Patrick. "Biased evaluation and cognitive models : an application to a sports betting competition /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2001. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ARPS/09arpsi273.pdf.
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Bagamery, Jack. "A Hypothetical Universal U.S. Sports Betting Market: Modeling the U.S. Market Using Australian Panels." Thesis, Boston College, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:106759.
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Thesis advisor: Father Richard McGowanIn the United States, gambling on sports is a widespread and popular activity. Yet, the extent of that popularity is largely unknown because the practice is illegal, with the exception of a handful of states. To determine the scale of this market, I construct a series panel regression models that explain the size of the legal sports betting market in Australia using continuous macroeconomic and behavioral variables in addition to dummy variables signaling regulatory shifts. Using the relationships between these variables and sports betting expenditure, I will estimate the size of the United States market on a state-by-state basis. After sizing the U.S. market, I will briefly discuss the key finding of the synergistic relationship between sports betting and Internet as well as the inevitable tradeoffs between the economic benefits and consequences of legalization
Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2016
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Departmental Honors
Discipline: Economics
Thesis advisor:
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Maksimova, Valentina. "Language competences in the new on-line sports information and betting business: Runningball (Aveiro)." Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/14002.
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Mestrado em Línguas e Relações EmpresariaisThis project evaluates the role of languages and intercultural competence in the new and growing sports business, namely one of the biggest sports events real-time data providers – Runningball. The company provides over 30 000 football games a year in more than 70 countries worldwide as well as basketball, volleyball, and ice-hockey games. The dissertation investigates how multicultural diversity is accepted and received in everyday work at this new type of sports data business and what role the languages play in helping to provide real-time data while using the second or third language to get the best instant results. Dimensions of business are explored, and data analysis made in order to realize how the company runs its business and how languages have become a crucial asset of Runningball. The field study reflected on the role of a lingua franca in the multilingual society of today. Furthermore it has been revealed in a field study that not only English has taken the place of the most important language in international business, but a mixture of various languages is the key to greater success.
O projeto apresentado para esta dissertação teve como principal objectivo analisar a influência global de várias línguas e a capacidade de mediar a comunicação intercultural num mercado desportivo on-line em ascenção. O objetivo foi alcançado em parceria com uma das maiores empresas fornecedoras de dados de eventos desportivos em tempo real - Runningball. Esta empresa oferece um enorme portofólio de eventos desportivos, sendo o futebol a modalidade com maior oferta - 30 000 jogos de futebol anualmente em mais de 70 paises no mundo inteiro - seguindo-se outros eventos de várias modalidades como os de basquetebol, de voleibol, de hóquei no gelo, de snooker entre outros. Nesta dissertação constatou-se que a diversidade linguística é aceite e bem recebida no mundo desportivo e os eventos desportivos multiculturais. Observou-se também que a comunicação através de diversas línguas exerce um papel de grande importâcia para obtenção rápida de dados em tempo real, ao contrário na utilização da língua nativa. Os outros aspectos foram alvo de estudo nesta dissertação tais como a avaliação da dimensão do negócio de eventos desportivos e a análise da obtenção de dados, de forma a compreender o funcionamento da empresa e como uma língua pode se uma mais valia e determinante na Runningball. Assim sendo, conclui-se que a língua franca exerce um papel determinante na sociedade actual e que o Inglês não só deixou de ser a língua mais influente no mundo dos negócios internacionais. A chave para o sucesso de qualquer negócio multinacional está em possuir uma panóplia linguistica que abrange qualquer mercado e as necessidades dos consumidores.
Mağistra darbs novērtē valodu lomu sporta biznesā, konkrētāk lielāko momenta sporta datu nodrošināšanas uzņēmumu - Runningball. Kompānija piedāvā vairāk kā 30.000 futbolspēļu gadā no vairāk nekā 70 pasaules valstīm, kā arī ievērojamu skaitu basketbola, volejbola, hokeja, kā arī biljarda spēļu rezultātus. Galvenais disertācijas darba uzdevums ir izpētīt kā multikulturālā daudzveidība tiek pieņemta un uzņemta ikdienas darbā un kādu lomu ieņem valodas, lai nodrošinātu sporta datus notiekošos tai pašā mirklī, ņemot vērā, ka izmantotā valoda ir otrā vai trešā lietotāja valoda. Kā arī darba gaitā tiek izanalizēti: biznesa apmēri, datu analīze, kas atklāj kā kompānija pārvalda savu uzņēmumu un kā valodas ieņem vienu no galvenajām lomām uzdevumu veikšanā kompānijā Runningball. Pētījuma daļa atklāja kādu lomu ieņem lingua franca šīs dienas daudzvalodīgajā pasaulē. Turklāt atklājās, ka ne tikai angļu valodai ir galvenā loma starptautisko darījumu nozarē, bet gan daudzvalodīgums tiek saskatīts kā visvērtīgākais kompānijas ieguvums un galvenā veiksmes atslēga.
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Ötting, Marius [Verfasser]. "Sports statistics in the data age: betting fraud detection and performance evaluation / Marius Ötting." Bielefeld : Universitätsbibliothek Bielefeld, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1218230657/34.
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Lust, Alexander D. "A Test of Efficiency in NBA Point Spread Markets." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1533158563565605.
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Matthews, Gregory J. "Improved paired comparison models for NFL point spreads by data transformation." Link to electronic thesis, 2005. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-050505-144934/.
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Lahvička, Jiří. "Essays in Economics of Sports." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-199302.
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This dissertation consists of five articles about economics of sports. The first three articles investigate various types of outcome uncertainty and how they relate to match attendance demand, while the remaining two articles test the efficiency of sports betting markets. The first article presents a new method of calculating match importance. Unlike the previous approaches in the literature, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome. The second article shows that the additional playoff stage in the Czech ice hockey "Extraliga" lowers the probability of the strongest team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty. The third article demonstrates that the inconsistent findings in the literature about the link between match uncertainty and attendance could be explained by wrongly specified regressions, proposes a new approach to analyzing the effect of match uncertainty and shows that attendance demand is maximized if teams of the same quality play against each other. The fourth article examines the favorite-longshot bias in the context of betting on tennis matches. It shows that the favorite-longshot bias pattern is consistent with bookmakers protecting themselves against both better informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. The fifth article investigates the supposedly profitable strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set and found to lose money.
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Haapanen, Joel, and Jens Södblom. "Konsumentuppfattning kring idrottsupportrars inställning till sponsorer som går emot idrottens värderingar : En jämförelsestudie om svenska idrottkonsumenters emotionella koppling till idrottsaktörer." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-45965.
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Competitive sports has grown into a large industry with a turnover of hundreds of billions of dollars. In line with the digitalization and globalization that the world has undergone in recent years, there have been great marketing opportunities for sponsors who want to benefit from the sport and its positivity. Although choosing a sponsor is not always easy, especially not because the sport has its norms and values to take into account, which may differ from the sponsors' purposes.In the idea program Idrotten vill, which was approved by the members at the Swedish Sports Confederation's meeting in 2019, it is written that sports in Sweden should function as a social force that contributes to a more sustainable society by, among other things, promoting public health. Despite this, there are sponsors from industries such as betting, alcohol and fast food, all of which go against public health. The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of consumer attitudes towards sponsorship collaborations that go against the stated values of sport, by examining any differences between supporters with an emotional connection to a sports team or an athlete, and those supporters without an emotional connection. Through a quantitative survey, questions have been formed based on the theories of Corporate Social Responsibility, Heider's balance theory and Word of mouth. With the help of 176 sports supporters, the study has shown that they are influenced by their surroundings' views on sponsorship collaborations, and that trust in them is strengthened if their products in any way give back to society. However, the results show that a product's affiliation with the sports movement does not necessarily have to be accepted as a sponsor.
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Clippert, Courtney A. "Potential Factors That Influence Team Identification: A Desire to be Similar or Different?" TopSCHOLAR®, 2010. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/148.
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The purpose of the current study is to determine whether eliciting the need for assimilation or the need for differentiation influences individuals’ identification with a given team. Team identification is defined as a fan’s psychological connection to a team; that is, the extent to which the fan views the team as an extension of him or herself (Wann, Melnick, Russell, & Pease, 2001). It is important to understand potential factors that may motivate and potentially increase one’s identification with a particular team.
The sample consisted of 106 participants attending Western Kentucky University. The participants completed the Sport Fandom Questionnaire (SFQ) and the Need for Affiliation (nAff) scale. Participants were presented with one of three randomly assigned scenarios, and were asked to transcribe two memories, dependent upon the previously assigned scenario. Following this, the gambling scenario was described. Participants rated how identified they were with both the underdog and favored team, regardless of their choice. It was hypothesized that those who are primed to experience the feelings of assimilation will wager more money on and be more highly identified with a team that is a prohibitive favorite. Also, it was hypothesized that those who are primed to experience the feelings of differentiation will wager more money on and be more highly identified with a team that is a large underdog.
Results indicated that the hypotheses were not supported; however, significance was approached, as participants who were primed for feelings of differentiation tended to choose the underdog football team. Regardless of condition, participants tended to wager more money on the favorite football team, as opposed to the underdog football team.
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Mikulka, Jakub. "Playing Lotteries and Betting on Sporting Events: A Behavioral Economics Perspective." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197086.
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This thesis deals with the relationship between mood and behavior of bettors using a dataset provided by a betting company, Chance a.s., which operates in the Czech Republic. We consider three types of proxies for the mood: weather in regions, sport successes and the results of elections, and we build a fixed effect model to estimate the effect of mood on betting behavior. We provide strong evidence that the weather proxy has a significant effect on daily turnovers of the betting company and there also seems to be an effect of sport optimism. On the contrary, we failed to find any impact of elections. The results show that better mood tend to discourage clients from sports and lottery betting which is consistent with the increase in risk aversion or the depletion of a common self-control resource due to active mood regulation attempts. Additionally, we provide an evidence that the intra-month cycle in turnovers corresponds to liquidity constraint of bettors which disproves the permanent income hypothesis.
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Larsson, Joakim, and Henrik Sjökvist. "American Football : A Markovian Approach." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188987.
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This bachelor's thesis in applied mathematics & industrial economics is an attempt to model drives in American football using Markov chains. The transition matrix is obtained through logit regression analysis on historical data from the NFL. Different outcomes of drives are modelled as separate absorbing states in the Markov chain. Absorption probabilities are calculated representing the probabilities of each outcome. Results are tested against a Markov chain with the transition matrix based on frequency analysis. Three scoring rules unanimously declare the regression based model to be superior. The application of the model pertains to live sports betting. With the insight provided by the Markovian model, a bettor should be able to make statistically informed betting decisions. The prospect of creating a start-up based on the Markovian betting model is discussed.Denna kandidatuppsats i tillämpad matematik & industriell ekonomi är ett försök till att modellera drives i amerikansk fotboll med hjälp av Markovkedjor. Övergångsmatrisen fås genom logit-regressionsanalys av historisk data från NFL. Olika utfall av drives modelleras som separata absorberande tillstånd i Markovkedjan. Absorptionssannolikheter beräknas, vilka representerar sannolikheterna för de olika utfallen. Resultaten testas mot en Markovkedja där övergångsmatrisen fås genom frekvensanalys. Tre olika poängregler föredrar enhälligt den regressionsbaserade modellen. Modellens tillämpning berör sportbetting. Med hjälp av Markovmodellen bör en spelare kunna ta statistiskt underbyggda beslut i deras betting. Möjligheterna att skapa ett företag baserat på Markovmodellen diskuteras.
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Knyblová, Helena. "Legislativa v oblasti kursového sázení v České republice a v Evropské unii." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-200120.
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This thesis deals with the impacts of amendments of Act on Lotteries and Other Like Games effective since 2012 on sports betting operators, state budget of the Czech Republic and funding of Czech sport. Furthermore, this paper analyses the issue of cross-border provision of gambling services in the EU and examines the compliance of Czech regulatory framework with EU law. Finally, it proposes solutions to identified weaknesses.
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Antunes, Miguel Siborro. "Análise da rentabilidade de 4 estratégias de jogo no mercado de apostas desportivas : o factor casa no ténis profissional masculino." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12755.
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Mestrado em Ciências EmpresariaisA presente dissertação tem como principal objectivo estudar a eficiência no mercado das apostas desportivas, mais especificamente estudar o factor casa no ténis profissional masculino (ATP). Este trabalho junta dois conceitos de elevada importância como a eficiência e os mercados das apostas desportivas. Se a eficiência é desde sempre um tema basilar no mundo financeiro, já o mercado das apostas desportivas tem vindo a ocupar um lugar de relevo nas novas investigações feitas, não só por este ser um mercado em grande expansão (número crescente de apostadores, casas de apostas e transações diárias) mas também por ser um mercado ideal para se testar a eficiência (preços fixos, liquidações imediatas e envolve curtos períodos de tempo). De modo a responder a questão de investigação: "Haverá alguma estratégia, que prove a ineficiência, nos jogos de ténis dos torneios ATP, no mercado das apostas desportivas?", foi seleccionada uma amostra composta por dados históricos, das odds dos encontros caseiros, que se realizaram diariamente, durante toda a temporada de 2015. Para se chegar às respectivas conclusões foram feitos testes estatísticos, aos dados recolhidos, de modo a perceber se é possível ter rendibilidades consistentemente positivas através de diferentes estratégias. Concluiu-se assim que o mercado das apostas desportivas é eficiente, uma vez que não é possível ter rendibilidades consistentemente positivas, através de várias estratégias que envolvem o factor casa.
This paper has, as its primary goal, to study the efficiency of sports bets on the market, more specifically to study the factor home on masculine professional tennis (ATP). The work gathers two concepts of high importance as efficiency and the markets of sports bets. If the efficiency is, since forever, a foundation on the finance market the sports bets market has been occupying a relevant place on new investigations, not only for this being an expanding market (growing number of betters, bets' houses and daily transactions) but also for being an ideal market for efficiency testing (fix prices, immediate liquidations and evolves short time spans). In order to answer the research question: (Is there any strategy that proves the inefficiency in a tennis match, of the ATP tournament, on sports bet market) was selected a sample of historical data with the odds of the home games, which were performed daily throughout the season 2015. Were made statistical test to the data collected to reach the conclusions in order to understand if it is possible to obtain consistently positive returns through different strategies. We can conclude that the betting market is efficient, since it is not possible to obtain consistently positive returns through various strategies, involving the home factor.
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Nahas, Imad. "Le jeu et le pari en droit." Thesis, Paris 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA020017/document.
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Les jeux de hasard furent connus et pratiqués par l’homme depuis les premières civilisations. Mais dès l’Antiquité gréco-romaine, ces jeux se sont attirés les foudres des moralistes, ecclésiastiques, et législateurs, chacun pour ses propres motifs. Des lois sévères furent édictées par les législateurs de l’Antiquité, qui furent par la suite reprises par les canonistes et les juristes de l’Ancien droit, ainsi que par les rédacteurs du Code civil, et ce, dans le but d’éradiquer, ou du moins de cantonner cette pratique ludique. Mais le désir humain de pratiquer ces jeux de hasard fut plus fort que ces lois, et la pratique y a survécu. Au cours du XXe siècle, et alors que certains États de par le monde ont choisi la prohibition absolue, d’autres, comme la France, ont opté pour une autorisation contrôlée sous l’égide de l’État. Ainsi fut créé le triptyque prohibition-exception-monopole, sous lequel le jeu se développa considérablement. Et quand le développement technologique a permis d’offrir les jeux de hasard à travers l’internet, le secteur des jeux d’argent a atteint en France, et de par le monde, des limites jamais connues auparavant au cours de l’histoire. Mais ce développement exceptionnel a amené avec lui des défis nouveaux, notamment au plan financier et sécuritaire, mais aussi au plan européen où le modèle français monopolistique fut critiqué. Pour faire face à ces défis, de nouvelles lois furent promulguées au cours des récentes années. Mais toutes furent en deçà de l’ampleur des défis. La tâche est entamée, mais le gros du travail reste à accomplirGames of chance were known and practiced by man since the earliest civilizations. But all the way since the greco-roman antiquity, these games have attracted the ire of moralists, clergymen and legislators, each for their own motives. Strict laws were enacted by the Antiquity legislators, laws that were later upheld by canonists and jurists of the Old law, as well as the civil Code editors, in order to eliminate, or at least confine this recreational practice. But the human desire to enjoy these games of chance was stronger than these laws, and the practice survived. Over the course of the 20th century, and while certain States around the world chose absolute prohibition, others, like France, opted for a controlled authorization under the auspices of the State. Thus was created the prohibition-monopoly-exception triptych, under which gambling grew considerably. And when the technological development allowed games of chance to be provided through the internet, the gambling industry reached in France and around the world, limits never known before in the course of the human history. But this exceptional development has brought new challenges along, mainly in the finance and security areas, but also at the European legal level where the French monopoly model was criticized. To take up these challenges, new laws were enacted in recent years. But all fell short of the challenges scale. The task was initiated, but most of the work remains to be done
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Barraud, Christophe. "L'Efficience informationnelle du marché des paris sportifs : un parallèle avec les marchés boursiers." Phd thesis, Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00834768.
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Cette thèse a pour but de présenter le marché des paris sportifs plus précisément de montrer en quoi ce dernier constitue un cadre d'observations simplifié suffisamment proche des marchés boursiers pour tester la théorie de l'efficience informationnelle et aboutir à des conclusions unanimes concernant sa validité empirique. En premier lieu, nous concentrons notre attention sur la forme faible de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément sur une anomalie connue sous le nom du Favourite Longshot Bias, qui a été recensée aussi bien dans le cadre des paris sportifs que celui des marchés boursiers. A l'aide d'un vaste échantillon de données, nous démontrons que les coûts de transaction et les préférences des parieurs ont un impact significatif sur le niveau des cotes proposées par les bookmakers et donc sur la structure des prix. Par ailleurs, nous discutons de la rationalité des parieurs et nous montrons en quoi le comportement des parieurs n'est pas si différent de celui des investisseurs sur les marchés boursiers. En second lieu, nous analysons en détails la forme forte de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément la pertinence de la fourchette en tant qu'indicateur de délits d'initiés dans le cadre des paris sportifs.
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Rakovčík, Jakub. "Vybrané metody predikce vývoje mezinárodních finančních trhů na základě historických dat." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-76789.
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First chapter describes International Financial Markets. Second chapter describes market fundamental analysis. Third chapter describes market technical analysis and efficient market hypothesis testing. Fourth chapter discusses market psychological analysis. Fifth chapter encompasses other theoretical background to be used in application. Sixth chapter deals with application of fundamental and technical analysis on a tennis betting market having found parallels between the sports betting markets and financial markets.
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Tuzilova, Kristyna. "Pre-play interactive trading in tennis: probability to win a match in Grand Slam tournaments." Master's thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/21760.
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With the recent innovations in technology, sports betting became more accessible to
any bettor, professional or not. An analysis of tennis and models applicable on the
estimation of the result of men’s tennis matches in Grand Slam tournaments allowed us
to identify a model with the capacity to predict the result with a 76,02% accuracy. The
selected model was applied on a case study, using Betfair as an example of an
‘exchange’ platform. This approach allows us to compare the estimated odds and the
odds present at the betting market in such a way that the predictive ability of the model
is assessed. Further developments are suggested in the conclusion; Resumo:
Negociação interativa pré-jogo no mercado de apostas de ténis: probabilidade de
ganhar um jogo em torneios do Grand Slam
Com os mais recentes avanços tecnológicos, a aposta desportiva tornou-se acessível
para qualquer tipo de apostador, quer amador, quer profissional. Uma análise ao caso
específico do ténis, baseada na aplicação de modelos para resposta binária ao resultado
de um jogo de ténis masculino durante o torneio do Grand Slam, permitiu-nos
identificar um modelo com a capacidade de prever o resultado para 76,02% dos jogos.
O modelo seleccionado foi aplicado num estudo de caso, usando Betfair como exemplo
de uma plataforma de apostas. O modelo permite-nos comparar as probabilidades estimadas e as probabilidades existentes no mercado de apostas, e identificar se a
previsão do resultado de um determinado jogo vai ao encontro das expectativas do
mercado. Desenvolvimentos adicionais são sugeridos na conclusão.
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Jottreau, Benoît. "Financial models and price formation : applications to sport betting." Thesis, Paris Est, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PEST1031.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse est composée de quatre chapitres. Le premier chapitre traite de l'évaluation de produits financiers dans un modèle comportant un saut pour l'actif risque. Ce saut représente la faillite de l'entreprise correspondante. On étudie alors l'évaluation des prix d'options par indifférence d'utilité dans un cadre d'utilité exponentielle. Par des techniques de programmation dynamique on montre que le prix d'un Bond est solution d'une équation différentielle et le prix d'options dépendantes de l'actif est solution d'une équation aux dérives partielles d'Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman. Le saut dans la dynamique de l'actif risque induit des différences avec le modèle de Merton que nous tentons de quantifier. Le second chapitre traite d'un marché comportant des sauts : les paris sur le football. Nous rappelons les différentes familles de modèles pour un match de football et introduisons un modèle complet permettant d'évaluer les prix des différents produits apparus sur ce marché ces dix dernières années. La complexité de ce modèle nous amène à étudier un modèle simplifié dont nous étudions les implications et calculons les prix obtenus que l'on compare à la réalité. On remarque que la calibration implicite obtenue génère de très bons résultats en produisant des prix très proches de la réalité. Le troisième chapitre développe le problème de fixation des prix par un teneur de marche monopolistique dans le marché des paris binaires. Ce travail est un prolongement direct au problème introduit par Levitt [Lev04]. Nous généralisons en effet son travail aux cas des paris européens et proposons une méthode pour estimer la méthode de cotation utilisée par le book-maker. Nous montrons que deux hypothèses inextricables peuvent expliquer cette fixation des prix. D'une part, l'incertitude du public sur la vraie valeur ainsi que le caractère extrêmement risque-averse du bookmaker. Le quatrième chapitre prolonge quant à lui cette approche au cas de produits financiers non binaires. Nous examinons différents modèles d'offre et de demande et en déduisons, par des techniques de programmation dynamique, des équations aux dérivées partielles dictant la formation des prix d'achat et de vente. Nous montrons finalement que l'écart entre prix d'achat et prix de vente ne dépend pas de la position du teneur de marche dans l'actif considère. Cependant le prix moyen dépend lui fortement de la quantité détenue par le teneur de marche. Une approche simplifiée est finalement proposée dans le cas multidimensionnelThis thesis is composed of four chapters. The first one deals with the pricing of financial products in a single jump model for the risky asset. This jump represents the bankrupcy of the quoted firm. We study the pricing of derivatives in the context of indifference of utility with an exponential utility. By means of dynamic programming we show that the bond price is solution of an ordinary differential equation and that stock price dependent options are solutions of an equation with partial derivatives of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman type generalizing the Black-Scholes one. We then try to quantify differences in the price obtained here and the one from Merton model without jump. The second chapter deals with a specific jump market : the soccer betting market. We recall the different model families for a soccer match and introduce some full model which allows to price the products recently born in this market in last ten years. Nevertheless the model complexity leads us to study a simplified model introduced by Dixon and Robinson from which we are able to derive closed formulas and simulate prices that we compare to market prices. We remark that implicit calibration gives pretty goof fit of market data. Third chapter developps the approach of Levitt [Lev04] on price formation in binary betting market held by a monopolistic market-maker operating in a one time step trading. We generalize Levitt results with european format of betting. We show that prices are distorded on the pressure of demand and offer, that phenomena introducing a market probability that allows to price products under this new measure. We identify some best model for demand and offer and market maker strategy and show that probability change is obvious in case of imperfect information about the value of the product. Fourth chapter generalizes this approach to the case of general payoffs and continuous time. The task is more complex and we just derive partial derivative equations from dynamic programming that enable us to give the bid-ask prices of the product traded by the market-maker. One result is that, in most models, bid-ask spread does not depend on the inventory held by the dealer whereas mid-quote price strongly reflects the unbalance of the dealer
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Cantinotti, Michael. "Can gamblers beat randomness? : an experimental study on sport betting." Master's thesis, Université Laval, 2002. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=766575321&sid=17&Fmt=2&clientId=9268&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Kouřil, Jakub. "Vliv hazardního průmyslu na svět sportu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197461.
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This thesis deals with questions of funding sport from lottery incomes and other similar games. The aim of this study is to present a relation between gambling and sport in a complex way. The preliminary theoretic part explains terminology and principle of venture operations, including historical evolution. Furthermore, this thesis is focused on determination of positive and negative externalities of gambling towards sport. Practical part describes a crucial legal form of gambling in Czech Republic. Apart from that this thesis evaluates consequences caused of legal modifications in recent years. Following is the analysis of funding sport from incomes of loterries in selected EU countries. The final part deals with (de)regulation of betting sector in Europe.
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Šedý, Petr. "Investiční činnost na asijském trhu se sportovními událostmi." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-150027.
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This thesis was written in order to introduce relatively unknown investment activity. It shows basic principles of value betting and investment technique called "Asian handicap" which is used by the most of successful investors. These activities take place on Asian markets, that is why I describe processes and rules which are used there. The reader will be shown how professional analyst calculates his own fair odds. This is very important for his decision-making about investments. The practical part of the thesis covers activities of analysts during short (one week) and long (one year) period. Everything was registered, commented and put into context with theoretical facts. Results were evaluated too. This thesis offers different view on the activity which changed from pure gamble into new investment option.
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Rožek, Jan. "Marketing of the gambling industry." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-74078.
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This thesis is studying the current global as well as Czech gambling industry with the focus on internet gambling activities. The work begins with the description of various gambling activities. The focus is taken on the internet gambling activities with description of the specifics and the current European as well as US legal frame. Next part is dedicated to the psychology of gambling together with the pathological gambling addiction. In next part the thesis studies the current situation on the Czech market - history, main official legal providers as well as main grey market providers. Second part of the work is the case study of the launch of the internet lottery games by Fortuna Entertainment Group. This case study is based on a desk research of previous successful best practices in the internet gambling industry from all around the world.
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Trannois, Mallorie. "L'harmonisation européenne des jeux d'argent en ligne : Etude comparative entre la Belgique, la France, la Grande-Bretagne et l'Italie." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014CERG0694.
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Historiquement en matière de jeux d'argent en dur, il existe une homogénéité des législations nationales puisque la plupart des dispositifs s'articule autour d'un monopole d'Etat et/ou de la délivrance d'une licence d'exploitation exclusive. Le particularisme de cette activité économique a été reconnu par le juge européen ce qui lui permet de déroger, sous certaines conditions, aux principes de libre prestation de services et de liberté d'établissement. L'avènement des jeux d'argent en ligne a cependant modifié l'appréhension de ce secteur en raison du caractère transnationale de cette nouvelle activité. A cet égard, les Etats ont tenté d'apporter des réponses aux problématiques liées au blanchiment d'argent, à la protection du consommateur, à la manipulation des résultats sportifs et à l'existence de sites illégaux qu'elle pose. L'hétérogénéité des solutions proposées ne permet cependant pas de répondre efficacement à ces écueils ni de satisfaire aux exigences définies par les Traités. Dès lors, la Commission européenne a introduit des procédures d'infractions contre certains Etats puis a publié un livre vert afin de rechercher des pistes qui assureraient un consensus entre les Etats membres sans qu'elle n'ait à intervenir davantage par l'intermédiaire d'une législation européenne. Néanmoins, les nombreux obstacles issus des textes européens n'offrent à la Commission européenne qu'un espace restreint de propositions qui viseront surtout à renforcer les coopérations entre les autorités de régulation et ne permettront probablement pas de résoudre les questions susmentionnées. C'est dans cette perspective que nos travaux de recherches s'inscriront. Aussi, après avoir étudié le droit positif européen, nous nous attacherons, à partir d'une étude de droit comparé des principaux modèles juridiques existants sur le territoire de l'Union (droit belge, droit britannique, droit français et droit italien), à déterminer un instrument d'harmonisation européen qui d'assurer un haut niveau de protection des consommateurs et une concurrence équilibrée entre les opérateurs de jeuxHistorically as regards gambling, there is a homogeneity of national laws because most regulations are built around a state monopoly and / or grant of an exclusive license. The particularity of this economic activity has been recognized by the European Justice Court allowing it to derogate, under certain conditions, the principles of freedom to provide services and freedom of establishment. The advent of online gambling, however, changed the understanding of the sector due to the transnational nature of this new activity. In this regard, States have attempted to provide answers to issues related to money laundering, consumer protection, match fixing and the existence of illegal websites that pose. The heterogeneity of the solutions does not allow to effectively respond to these pitfalls or to satisfy the requirements defined by the Treaties. Therefore, the European Commission brought infringement proceedings against some states and has published a Green Paper to search for tracks that would ensure a consensus among Member States without it having to intervene more through of European regulation. However, many obstacles from European laws available to the European Commission a limited space of proposals that aim primarily at strengthening cooperation between regulatory authorities and probably will not help to solve the above issues. It is in this context that our research work will enroll. Also, having studied European positive law, we will focus, from a comparative law study of the main existing legal models on the territory of the Union (Belgian law, English law, French law and Italian law) to determine an instrument of European harmonization to ensure a high level of consumer protection and fair competition between gambling operators
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Schröpf, Bettina [Verfasser], Martin [Akademischer Betreuer] Lames, Martin [Gutachter] Lames, and Andreas [Gutachter] Hohmann. "Relative Age Effect und Karrieremuster im deutschen Nachwuchsleistungsfußball / Bettina Schröpf ; Gutachter: Martin Lames, Andreas Hohmann ; Betreuer: Martin Lames." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1192911504/34.
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Sax, David, and Jeff Torberntsson. "Hur arbetar Svensk Elitfotboll (SEF) med sina huvudsponsorer Unibet och OBOS utifrån sin brand identity och hur uppfattas detta genom brand image?" Thesis, Malmö universitet, Fakulteten för hälsa och samhälle (HS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-42690.
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AbstractKeywords: Brand image, brand identity, sponsorship, betting, football, branding. Purpose: How does Swedish Elite Football (SEF) work with its main sponsors Unibet and OBOS based on its brand identity and how is this perceived through brandimage? Methodology: The study is based on a qualitative approach. With semi-structured interviews and document analysis, we have collected material that has been processed through a thematic analysis. Theory: Theoretical starting points in this study are the concepts of brand image, brand identity and positioning. Results and conclusions: Previous research showed that gambling addiction and a normalization of betting were consequences formed in England since 1992 after a high exposure of gambling companies. This led to unhealthy betting behaviour, especially among adolescents, which may have affected the league's reputation. In our analysis, we investigated SEF's use of a privately owned gaming company as the main sponsor from a brand perspective. Based on SEF's brand identity, the organization will now be associated with Unibet in their exposure and marketing, which also means that their association will fall on SEF. Thus, SEF needs to create a good brand image for the gaming company, which it tries to do through different types of projects. Hemmaklubben and Unicoach are social projects that will develop Swedish football by, for example, training coaches further to develop better own products from the academies. SEF and Unibet have also initiated work against gambling addiction. They explain the project as that the problem is something that affects both organizations and should therefore be solved by the organizations. In this way, they want to inform the public that there are many benefits to the new collaboration, which are factors that strengthen SEF's identity. Based on our review of previous material, we can ́t see any previous studies where private betting companies as the main sponsor of a league social projects have done to counteract unhealthy betting behaviour, which SEF and Unibet do. From this point of view, we believe that the view of SEF's brand is partly dependent on the results the social projects will show. At present, SEF believes that they have received a positive response after turbulent discussions when the collaboration became official. Social projects have calmed the storm and supporters are probably waiting for the consequences of the values the collaboration can have. Thus, brand identity is probably dependent on positive results of the projects to be able to show that the organizations do have a value for Swedish Elite Football. This will then lead to a perception (brand image) about the organization. In further studies, we would like to see further research5on the organization's brand image to see how this has actually been received by supporters of SEF and whether the projects have been successful or not.
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Bělohlávek, Jiří. "Agent pro kurzové sázení." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta informačních technologií, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-235980.
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This master thesis deals with design and implementation of betting agent. It covers issues such as theoretical background of an online betting, probability and statistics. In its first part it is focused on data mining and explains the principle of knowledge mining form data warehouses and certain methods suitable for different types of tasks. Second, it is concerned with neural networks and algorithm of back-propagation. All the findings are demonstrated on and supported by graphs and histograms of data analysis, made via SAS Enterprise Miner program. In conclusion, the thesis summarizes all the results and offers specific methods of extension of the agent.
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Jansa, Jiří. "Fair bets in sports betting." Master's thesis, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-311264.
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Market efficiency and existence of profitable strategy are the most frequent analysis in the research concerning betting on sport events. This thesis covers both these topics on the dataset (20 betting offices) of Czech ice-hockey league from 2004 to 2010. The theoretical part presents development of models of individual decision-making under risk and uncertainty, models of equilibrium on the betting market and several definitions of market efficiency (Fama and Sauer as authors of these concepts) on these markets. The statistical part is testing difference in margins of betting companies for 3 possible outcomes of game, convergence in quoted odds across betting offices, arbitrage opportunity and correspondence of quoted odds to the real probabilities (linear and non- linear). Simple model of perfect market might be by all these tests rejected, since there is no constant return from betting on all outcomes, betting offices differ in margins, quoted odds do not correspond to the real probabilities and arbitrage opportunity is not disappearing. Second empirical part is devoted to the search for profitable strategy. Using 14 explanatory variables and various statistical methods (linear probability model, logit model, multinomial logit model), author is trying to beat bias in odds and find long-term profitable bet- ting...
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Tai, Jih-An, and 戴致安. "The Commercial Mechanisms of Sports Betting Markets." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11471901616634475329.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
商學研究所
101
There are many business opportunities in sports betting market. Foreign sports betting platforms are good; therefore, this study hopes to complete commercial mechanisms and improve domestic platforms through learning from foreign advantages. The study discusses the platforms by simulating game odds of developing, formulating operating rules, and establishing commercial mechanisms. To figure out which distributions are appropriate to sports games, the study decided to establish odds by using Poisson difference distribution model and also tested if the data was proper by statistical tests. This study develops the operating principles of platforms to formulate the principles. The result shows that the platforms can be operated by the ratio of each game result probability equaling to the ratio of each game result stake. Platforms make profits by commission on total stake. The actual data test whether are identical with the ratio rules, but the actual data are different with the rules. In this process, research found that fifty-fifty ratio fits the ratio rules, so the goal of this study is to make other games become fifty-fifty games. Run line mechanism was introduced in this study. The mechanism was established by logical inference and deduction, so that this study standardized run line mechanism process, which can be applied in other dimensions.
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Chin, Hui-Hsin, and 秦慧馨. "Blockchain-Based Online Sports/Esports Betting Platform." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/pj4293.
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博士國立交通大學
工業工程與管理系所
107
With the rapid development and popularization of Internet, online sports betting has become a fast growing segment within online gambling market. However, some drawbacks of legacy online sports betting platforms are considerable and should not be ignored. One of the main issues is fairness since odds are massively in favor of the bookmaker, as they usually skew the odds slightly in their favor. In addition, the bookmakers have a mathematical advantage over the players and the bookmakers tend to have more (inside) information than the players, not to mention that, in most cases, bookmakers usually restrict or band regularly winning players. Hence, the lack of security, transparency, and privacy, extortionate fees and low returns, all of which are factors for us to explore alternatives and look for better online sports betting platforms. Since from the birth of Bitcoin, blockchain technology has catch massive attention in the past few years. It holds immense promise for a variety of industries, including health care, e-voting, supply chain management, financial services, on-line learning and more. Blockchain technology can solve different kind of problems, such as security, privacy, transparency and reliability of data processing on the Internet. In this dissertation we design and implement a peer-to-peer decentralized online sports/esports betting platform based on blockchain technology, providing the mechanisms for two players to bet with each other, without bookmakers or business entity in the middle, using ERC20 compliant coins and secure smart contracts. Completed trades will be published on the blockchain which provides transparency and traceable. The smart contracts act as a verifiable trust engine. Only when a deal is done and founds are confirmed available on both sides, would the transaction be stored on the blockchain. Hence, the players will know they will be paid when they win. We have explored how the blockchain technology integrating smart contract functionality can be used to realize a truly peer-to-peer decentralized online sports/esports betting platform and so will contribute to the paradigm shift of online gambling. In the future, this platform can be used for any activity where tokens/funds are escrowed prior to a result and then settled to the winner.
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Fan, Hsi-Nien, and 范禧年. "A Hybrid Intelligence Mechanism for Sports Betting Selection." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/jdf864.
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碩士國立交通大學
資訊管理研究所
107
In 2014, some Europe’s central banks make interest rate down to zero and Japan followed. By mid-2016, there are almost 500 million people living with interest rates in the red. More and more people want to invest financial products by themselves rather than saving in the banks. Also, the Supreme Court of US lets states legalize sport betting, which makes sports betting a hot rising investment target. In this research, we take sports betting as our research target. As web 2.0 technologies has been getting more mature than ever before, people can share their experience on the internet. Along with the trend, more and more social sports betting platforms, in which people can share their betting experiences and selections with each other, were developed. To identify valuable information and make suitable selections, the bettor must have sports insights and betting experiences. In this study, we propose a sports betting recommendation mechanism, which combine artificial and collective intelligence, to help bettor make their selections.
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Liu, Darren, and 劉禹廷. "Ballwiz Investment: Business Plan for a Sports Betting Fund." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/44qcac.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
企業管理碩士專班
103
Sport betting is widely labeled as gambling, which has certain implications and social stigma attached that dissuades any serious examination of it as an investable market. The purpose of this writing is to show the reader that, a. sports betting market can be a viable investable market, b. it has certain key fundamental advantages in comparison to traditional financial market, and c. significant return on investment can be achieved. Successful implementation of modern technology and proprietary investment strategy should yield 40% return on investment over the long run while maintaining risk at or below levels expected of its financial market returns equivalent.
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Tsai, Fu-Chuan, and 蔡富全. "Using Blockchain Technology for Improving Online Sports Betting Process." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/kd9f25.
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碩士國立中興大學
科技管理研究所
106
Following Bitcoin’s significant rise in popularity among the online betting community, people’s focal points are now turning to its underlying technology, blockchain. According to the market research report of TechNavio in 2017, the total revenue of global online gaming has exceeded 50 billion US dollars in 2017. In particular, the proportion of online sports betting in the online betting market has more than half of global total revenue. According to the estimates made by recent research, the global online gaming industry will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9% for the next four years. Then our domestic Taiwan Sports Lottery has exceeded 30 billion NT dollars in total sales in 2017. It has continued to grow for four consecutive years since the second sports lottery was issued. The number of members of virtual betting has also doubled. With the trends of the FIFA World Cup Russia 2018, the market will continue to expand in the future. Although sports betting has evolved throughout the years and made its way to the internet, online sports betting platform is still lack of the necessary technology to ensure that the betting process is transparent, safe and straightforward. Some problems such as high charging fees and payments delay result in players’ unpleasant experiences. As a result, players are often forced to trust the platform operators to take charge of their security issues and improve the shortcomings. In this study, we use blockchain technology to establish an online sports betting platform. We take the advantages of blockchain benefits, and present all verified betting results and players’ betting information on the blockchain to make the sports betting platform more transparent. And we deploy smart contracts to automate some betting processes such as the process of checking the betting results. Finally, our design can pay back the stakes automatically, so that bonuses can be promptly sent. Overall, we design a new blockchain based sport betting system by automating steps to improve the efficiency of online sports betting process and provide a safe and trustworthy choice for the growing online sports betting market.
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Vieira, Afonso Rolla Palhares. "Finding a business model for a sports betting platform." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/23225.
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The purpose of this thesis is to document the research on finding a solid business model for the
creation of a startup in the sports betting investment market. Having worked closely in this
market with professionals and companies, as well as having access to data from more than 175
players, it was possible to study and measure the existing problems, to look for possible
solutions, test different initiatives, conceive a possible prototype and finally design a more
robust business model for a platform to make investments in sports betting. This thesis will
document the journey of developing from idea into a startup project, using and exploring the
lean startup and costumer development process for it.
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Wang, Tzu-chun, and 王資竣. "Apply ingneural network to build aprediction model for sports lottery betting." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ct55g5.
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碩士逢甲大學
工業工程與系統管理學系
106
In recent years, as more and more people attach importance to health and sports, the sports economy is booming. The sports industry has become one of the most performance and fastest-growing industries in the world. When it comes to sporting events, it is nothing more than our country’s best known "baseball." Among them, the purchase of sports lottery can not only help the development of national sports and sports talents, but also allow more people to pay attention to sports events. Compared with the odds of winning prizes and return on investment for public welfare lotteries and scratches, one of the benefits of sports colorful scrolls is that buyers can do their homework for the games they want to buy before the game, relying on past game information or program calculations. The buyer has a basis before betting to improve accuracy and return on investment. This study will use the 122 samples from the 162 games of the Houston Astros in the 2017 World Championships of the American Baseball Championship. The collected data will be divided into three parts，respectively the pitcher，the hitter and the team will be on the ground. Then, we use the Matlab software to do analysis, and apply the results as a reference for the betting, and find the accuracy, expected profitability, and return on investment.
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Yang, Yong-ren, and 楊詠仁. "Betting Culture of Sports Lottery Fans in Taiwan~The Case of Taichung City." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/41864574112891537937.
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碩士康寧大學
休閒管理研究所
101
Lottery in Taiwan has more than 60 years of history which is from the earliest Patriotic Lottery to the Sports Lottery now. Discussion on this article is about Sports Lottery issued in recent years and research against betting culture of sports lottery fans. This Research aimed at exploring the motivations of the sports lottery fans, their thinking and behavior during the betting, the impact of the results and recommendations to relevant departments. A qualitative study is involving in depth interviews with sports lottery players, to understand the experience of the interviewers with their true feelings and thoughts, showing the diversity and variety of it. The study revealed that the major motivations of these players are fans of sports activities and love watching sports games; some of them played underground sports betting before, and they think that the advantages of underground sports betting are more categories of sports games, easier rules and single bets. Advantages of sports lottery are more diversities and lower minimum bets. During betting, the players check information on sports website, the newspaper analysis, the employee of lottery shop or listen to other players’ suggestion before making the decision. Most of the players picked their own session of games which mainly betted on their favorite teams, and secondly, the rational analysis. There are a lot of true stories which fans become friends happened in lottery shop. It’s easier to become friends in lottery shop with other lottery fans during discussion and watching games as well as relationship between families. Finally, to recommend relevant department could increase attraction and betting opportunities by single game bets, increasing payouts, rules of the game, variety and international standards
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Yu, Chin-Hung, and 尤欽弘. "A Study of the Behavioral Intention of Sports Lottery Betting in University Students." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97827422311655797665.
Full textAbstract:
碩士輔仁大學
體育學系碩士班
96
In this study, the Theory of Planned Behavior was to better understand university students’ intentions to attend sports lottery betting. The author examined the antecedents of university students’ sports lottery betting attendance behavior in the context of an integrated sports lottery attendance model. This model incorporates a wide variety of important factors from previous research on sports lottery into a single theoretical framework provided by the Theory of Planned Behavior. The model was tested using data from a sample of 1,123 individual respondents, each of whom completed a sports lottery betting. Attendance Questionnaire. The data was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Primary findings were: (a) Most of the students showed positive attitude to the beliefs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control at participate sports lottery betting. (b) The different analyses in different background factors in behavioral intention. are apparently presented (c) After conducting data, we found independent variables accounted for 79% unique variance in intentions. (d)the results suggest that this model fits the data well and provides significant insights into the factors that influence students’ behavior for attending sports lottery betting. (e)Among the model latent variables in influencing the intentions of Taiwan university’s students to participate in sports lottery betting, the perceived behavioral control served as the most influential factor, and the attitude the second.
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CHING, PO-YEN, and 慶柏延. "Study on the decision of sports lottery betting-Evidence from National Basketball Association games." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/m4pnha.
Full textAbstract:
碩士東吳大學
國際經營與貿易學系
104
It is obvious to see that betting market for Taiwan sports lottery is growing year by year, from the sales of 5.2 billion NTD in 2008 to 24 billion NTD in 2014, Due to the general public or sport lottery fans judging the game intuitively, then they have the high probability to lose. This study thinks that sports lottery would be a technical, highly predictable target of investment, and suggests, it could produce a great return via the investment management, data analysis, risk assessment and appropriate strategy application for sport lottery. The goal of this study is providing models and strategies of statistical analysis through gathering of game records and relevant information, in order to increase winning bets for general public or sport lottery fans. This study uses the NBA games records from 2012 to 2015 to analyze the game results which are the winners (the home team or the visitor) This study collected the data from 2012 to 2014, a total of 2459 games to create a forecast model, and applied 1230 games scores from 2014 to 2015 as a testing sample to predict a total of 719 games from 2015 to 2016, in order to provide a effective betting strategy by the comparison of virtual betting and intuitive betting results. The research not only uses the data of game scores but also adding the factors such as team advantages and team combination in the model. It applies the logistic regression analysis to filter out important variables that would affect the game results, then through neural network to create four different sets of forecast models, which forecast high winning percentage (low odds), low winning percentage (high odds), and home matches etc. As a result of the prediction, variable filter has better predictive capability than non variable filter. From the perspective of the betting option, selecting low winning bets predict the accuracy of 83.5%, where the return on investment could reach to 115.33%.
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Araújo, Bruno Onofre Monteiro de. "Efficiency of sports betting markets: A chronological review and its potential use for entrepreneurship." Dissertação, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/88663.
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LIAO, JIA-YING, and 廖家瑩. "A Study of the Technology Acceptance Model on Sports Lottery Customers Online Betting Behavior." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01748494786304793494.
Full textAbstract:
碩士朝陽科技大學
休閒事業管理系
104
This study intention to explore virtual sports lottery betting consumer's among in subjective norm, computer anxiety, computer self-efficacy, personal innovativeness, technology acceptance model relationship. Object of study is the Taichung area sports lottery betting shops virtual membership. Sampling method is to use administrative regions in Taichung City using cluster sampling method, a total of 320 questionnaires were distributed, excluding 52 copies of respondents fill in missing and too regularity invalid questionnaires, the effective rate of 83.75 %. Statistical method includes descriptive statistics, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation model to test the hypothesis. The results and conclusions are as follows: (1) Sports betting lottery virtual consumer is male, aged 26 - 35 years old, unmarried and monthly disposable income of 20,000 or less at most. (2) Sports betting lottery virtual consumer among consumer Technology Acceptance Model variables are having a significant impact effect. (3) Technology Acceptance Model was added after external variables, sports betting lottery virtual consumer subjective norm on perceived usefulness and ease of use has a significant influence effect; computer anxiety on perceived usefulness has a significant impact effect; computer self-efficacy on perceived ease of use have significant effects; individual innovation on perceived usefulness has a significant effect; perceived usefulness on attitude toward using and behavioral intention have significant effect; In the original technology acceptance model, the relationship between the various variables only perceived ease of use no significant attitude increasing external variables does not affect the relationship between the original TAM variables of all.
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Araújo, Bruno Onofre Monteiro de. "Efficiency of sports betting markets: A chronological review and its potential use for entrepreneurship." Master's thesis, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/88663.
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Leite, Gustavo De Maia Mendes. "Testing market efficiency: a case study on the football betting market." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/108369.
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This research investigates the efficiency of the sports betting market using football, with an original database compiling information for the last 10 sports seasons for three football leagues with different characteristics. Both literature and intuition tell us that prices or odds have made up a good forecast on the outcome of the sports event but also that bookmakers react poorly to information.This premise was tested through statistical and economic efficiency tests using the created model.In-sample evidence shows that odds are biased predictions of the matches outcome but there are investment strategies capable of generating statistically significant profits in the long run.Financial instruments available to investors interested in this market are also described and analyzed.
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Côrte-Real, João Maria Telles Moniz. "Forecasting football outcomes to invest in betting markets." Master's thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/17892.
Full textAbstract:
Our main objective was to develop a method which can be used to obtain long-term
returns on football bets. The forecasting of the matches was made using quantitative
(including a Poisson regression model) and qualitative (of subjective interpretation)
information. This approach was named value strategy, being able to generate a yield rate
of 19,88%, and to predict 8 out of 11 outcomes. However, the number of bets made is too
small to conclude that this strategy is capable of providing consistent earnings, in the
long-run.
The accuracy strategy consisted in betting on favourites who played at home, and
produced returns of 0,39%, not compensating for the risks assumed. If this strategy was
able to create revenues, it could indicate the presence of biases in the Portuguese betting
markets, and consequently, that these were semi-strong efficient. In practice, the accuracy
strategy broke even, therefore not suggesting that the Portuguese markets’ odds were
biased. However, if we did the same bets through Pinnacle (UK-based bookmaker), the
returns would be of 6,62%, hence indicating the existence of biases and semi-strong
efficiency.
Surprisingly, if one removes the overround, Portuguese bookmakers would have offered
better odds for the home wins than Pinnacle. This demonstrates the need of reviewing the
Portuguese online gambling legal framework, which is the main reason for the poor
competitiveness of Portuguese betting markets. As far as our research went, we could not
find any studies about these markets, hence we consider that our work adds an important
contribution to the existing literature.O nosso principal objetivo foi desenvolver um método que possa ser usado para obter retornos de longo prazo em apostas de futebol. A previsão dos jogos foi feita utilizando informação quantitativa (incluindo um modelo de regressão Poisson) e qualitativa (de interpretação subjetiva). A esta abordagem chamou-se estratégia de valor, tendo sido capaz de originar retornos de 19,88%, e de prever 8 em 11 resultados. Contudo, o número de apostas feitas é insuficiente para considerar que esta estratégia consegue gerar retornos consistentemente, a longo prazo.A estratégia de precisão consistiu em apostar nos favoritos que joguem em casa, e conseguiu retornos de 0,39%, não compensando os riscos assumidos. Se esta estratégia fosse capaz de criar retornos, podia indicar a tendenciosidade dos mercados de apostas Portugueses, e consequentemente, que estes possuem eficiência semiforte. Na prática, a estratégia de precisão ficou na mesma, não sugerindo, portanto, que as odds dos mercados Portugueses são tendenciosas. No entanto, se fizéssemos as mesmas apostas através do Pinnacle (casas de apostas Britânica), os retornos seriam de 6,62%, indicando a existência de tendenciosidade e de eficiência semiforte. Surpreendentemente, se removêssemos a margem implícita, as casas de apostas Portuguesas teriam oferecido melhores odds do que o Pinnacle, para vitórias da equipa caseira, o que demostra a necessidade de rever as leis do jogo online em Portugal, que são a principal razão para a falta de competitividade dos mercados de apostas Portugueses. Não conseguimos encontrar nenhum estudo acerca desses mercados, assim, consideramos que o nosso trabalho acrescenta um importante contributo à bibliografia existente.
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Chang, Yaw-Yuan, and 張耀元. "A study based on the Technology Acceptance Model and Computer Self-efficacy on online sports betting behavior." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09504198464423046143.
Full textAbstract:
碩士淡江大學
會計學系碩士在職專班
99
This research utilizes the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and user’s computer self-efficacy to investigate the use of online betting system by the sports bettors. It adopts questionnaire survey to collect data from the bettors over internet and then to verify the model with Structural Equation Modeling so as to get the key factors that deciding the betting behavior of the sports bettors. The findings suggest that computer self-efficacy has significant positive impact on perceived ease of use of online sports betting. The perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness of online sports betting both have significant positive impact on the attitude toward online sports betting. In addition, the attitude toward online sports betting has significant positive effect on the behavioral intention. The behavioral intention has significant positive impact on the usage of online sports betting.
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Matos, José Miguel Pereira Diamantino de. "Apostas desportivas online comportamento e perfil do apostador português." Master's thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/6840.
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ProjectoO mercado das apostas desportivas online tem tido um enorme crescimento nestes últimos anos, e estima-se que continue a crescer de forma sustentada nos próximos. Apesar deste grande crescimento ainda são escassos os estudos académicos neste mercado. O principal objectivo deste estudo consistiu no desenvolvimento do conhecimento empírico no que concerne ao mercado das apostas desportivas online. Procurou-se identificar e compreender o comportamento e perfil do apostador português. Ou seja, o intuito final desta investigação é entender se o apostador português tem um perfil de fã virado para o consumo, ou um perfil mais de investidor, profissional em que único objectivo é o retorno financeiro. Para tal, nesta pesquisa foi realizado um questionário em que a primeira parte aborda a identificação do indivíduo com a sua equipa, e a segunda parte aborda a participação em apostas desportivas online e o comportamento do consumo. Através desta pesquisa procura-se perceber se os indivíduos com maiores índices de identificação com a sua equipa são mais propensos a realizar apostas desportivas online, bem como entender se os apostadores que apostam mais dinheiro são também os que mais gastam com a equipa em bilhetes, merchandising e subscrições televisivas.
The market of online sports betting has had a huge growth in recent years and is estimated to continue to grow in a sustainable way in the next ones. In spite of this big growth, academic studies on the subject are still scarce. The main objective of this study consists in the development of the empirical knowledge that concerns the market of online sports betting. It was sought to identify and comprehend the behavior and profile of the portuguese better. In other words, the final aim of this research is to understand if the typical portuguese better has a fan type profile directed to consumption or an investor type profile closer to that of the investor, which means, professional and with the sole purpose of financial return. To achieve this outcome, in the context of this research, it was made a survey. The first part of the survey addresses the subject identification, where as the second part regards the participation in sport betting online and consumer type behavior. Through this research it is intended to apprehend if subjects with higher identification indexes with their team are more willing to perform sports bets online. Furthermore, it is wanted to understand if betters that wager more money are also the ones that waste more money on their team, namely in buying game tickets, merchandizing and television subscriptions.