To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Spot Markets.
Journal articles on the topic 'Spot Markets'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'Spot Markets.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Mallikarjunappa, T., and E. M. Afsal. "Price Discovery Process and Volatility Spillover in Spot and Futures Markets: Evidences of Individual Stocks." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 35, no. 2 (April 2010): 49–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090920100205.
Full textAbstract:
This paper analyses information-based superiority of markets mainly with an objective of exploring arbitrage opportunities. It attempts to determine the lead-lag relationship between spot and futures markets in the Indian context by using high frequency price data of twelve individual stocks, observed at one-minute interval. The study applies the concept of co-integration and establishes the spot-futures relationship using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) represented by EGARCH framework. To study the price discovery process in the two markets, five lags each of one-minute resolution for nine individual stocks and four lags for the remaining three stocks are chosen. The key results of the study are given below: There is a contemporaneous and bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the spot and futures markets. A feedback mechanism of short life is functional between the two markets. Price discovery occurs in both the markets simultaneously. There exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period. Volatility spillover from spot market to futures market is present in such a way that a decrease in spot volatility leads to a decrease in futures volatility. Volatility shocks are asymmetric and persistent in both the markets. Spillover from futures market to spot market is not significant. Neither spot nor futures assume a considerable leading role and neither of the markets is supreme in price discovery. In the case of 33.33 per cent of spot values and 33.33 per cent of futures values, there exists short-term disequilibrium that could be corrected in the next period by decreasing the prices. Spot market volatility spills over to futures market in most of the cases (66.66 %) and a decrease in spot volatility brings about a decrease in futures volatility in 50 per cent of the cases. Spillover effect from futures to spot market is present and significant in 91.66 per cent of stocks and is more than the spillover effect from spot to futures (50% valid cases). The markets are highly integrated. Asymmetric behaviour of volatility shocks is mixed in both the markets. Asymmetric volatility is detected in 50 per cent of the cases of spot market and 58.33 per cent cases of futures market. Stocks exhibiting asymmetric volatility show more sensitivity to negative shocks. There are no cases of market becoming more volatile in response to good news.
2
Dey, Kushankur, and Debasish Maitra. "Can futures markets accommodate Indian farmers?" Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 6, no. 2 (November 14, 2016): 150–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jadee-08-2013-0029.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose It has become an ongoing debate whether Indian commodity futures markets can accommodate farmers. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Indian commodity futures markets help rationalize farmers’ price expectation. The study starts with questions on the efficiency and other roles of commodity futures markets. Design/methodology/approach From a sectoral standpoint and economic importance, the study considers pepper, coffee, and natural rubber (NR) futures and spot markets. The efficiency of futures markets, divergence/convergence and causality between futures and spot markets have been studied by employing co-integrations, error correction and causality models. The sample period of the data are taken from the inception of futures trading. These three commodities are also compared on the basis of trading at the futures markets vs spot markets. Findings Analysis shows that though pepper futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery, while coffee and NR spot markets do the process faster. Pepper and coffee futures and spot prices exhibit the convergence; NR shows a sign of divergence. Unidirectional causality from pepper futures to spot market is observed wherein the former was weakly exogenous to the latter and while, bidirectional causality is observed in coffee and rubber. Coffee spot appears weakly exogenous while this remains inconclusive in the case of NR. Research limitations/implications The authors analyzed the futures markets in rationalizing the spot market price in three plantation crops in India. In order to make the study more generalizable, further research is warranted in other commodities including those prices of which are government regulated. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding the interaction or interrelationship between futures markets and spot markets and drawing inferences about the role of futures markets in price formation in plantation commodities like pepper, coffee and NR.
3
Ohk, Ki Yool. "The Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Liquidity." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 13, no. 1 (May 31, 2005): 29–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-01-2005-b0002.
Full textAbstract:
This study analyzes the effect of stock index futures trading on the price volatility and liquidity of spot markets, It is found that spot price volatility increases significantly after stock index futures are listed, This study partitions the trading activity series of sPOt markets into expected and unexpected components, and documents that unexpected spot-trading activities are associated with smaller sPOt price movements subsequent to the introduction of futures trading, This imolies that spot market liquidity has been increased by the intraduction of futures trading, Furthermore, this study examines the effect of futures-trading activity on the liquidity of spot markets, Results show that active futures markets enhance the liquidity of soot markets.
4
Herbert, John H. "Do Changes in Natural Gas Futures Prices Influence Changes in Natural Gas Spot Prices?" Energy Exploration & Exploitation 11, no. 5 (October 1993): 467–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459879301100506.
Full textAbstract:
Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices.
5
Rastogi, Shailesh, and Chaitaly Athaley. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 12, no. 2 (June 9, 2019): 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020098.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this paper is to study the integration of volatility in the three markets, viz. spot, futures and options, in order to provide input for hedging purposes and the formulation of policies for derivatives. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to capture the simultaneous equation modelling of volatility in the three markets. The integration of the volatility in the three markets is also tested for structural breaks. The main finding of the paper is that the volatility in the options market is not associated with volatility in spot and futures market. However, volatility in spot and futures markets are associated with each other. As a consequence, investors can use options for hedging purposes and policy makers do not need to be concerned about the imminent impact of options markets on spot markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no other study which discusses the integration of volatility in the three markets. Moreover, the finding of this paper that the options market behaves differently compared to the futures market has also not been discussed in earlier studies.
6
Krogmeier, Joseph L., Dale J. Menkhaus, Owen R. Phillips, and John D. Schmitz. "An Experimental Economics Approach to Analyzing Price Discovery in Forward and Spot Markets." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 29, no. 2 (December 1997): 327–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800007823.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractLaboratory experiments are used to generate data that facilitate investigation of pricing behavior in forward and spot markets. Results suggest a tendency for prices in a spot market to converge to levels higher than those in a forward market. The difference in these market environments is the supply schedule. Buyers in a spot market are aware that supply is inelastic and become relatively aggressive bidders. Forward markets have a relatively elastic supply schedule and buyers fare better. This may motivate firms to promote forward markets and/or vertically integrate in the procurement of inputs.
7
Cheung, Yin-Wong, and Hung-Gay Fung. "Information Flows Between Eurodollar Spot and Futures Markets." Multinational Finance Journal 1, no. 4 (December 1, 1997): 255–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17578/1-4-1.
Full text
8
Xue, Xing Qun, Sae Woon Park, and Hee Ho Kim. "Price Discovery and Spillover Effect between Currency Futures Market and Spot Market-Comparing Developing Country with Developed Country." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 22, no. 2 (May 31, 2014): 193–221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-02-2014-b0002.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the volatility spillover effect and forward pricing effect between futures and spot markets, using the daily data of January 1988~April 2013 and Bounds test, ARDL model, DCC-GARCH model and the new method of spillover index calculation. In particular, the comparison between the developed and emerging markets will shed a light on a difference between the efficiencies of the two groups of markets. Our results show that the volatility spillover effect in the developed market was less in magnitude, compared to that effect in the emerging market. The causal influence from the future market to the spot market was greater in the developed market than in the emerging markets. This indicates that the foreign exchange markets (future and spot both) were much more efficient in the developed markets than in the emerging markets. This also implies very fruitful guides for the foreign exchange intervention policy, including signaling effect, portfolio effects, and direct and indirect intervention effects.
9
Malhotra, Meenakshi, and Dinesh Kumar Sharma. "Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 41, no. 2 (May 31, 2016): 132–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090916642686.
Full textAbstract:
Executive Summary India occupies the fifth position in the vegetable oil economy of the world. The demand for oilseeds and vegetable oil has far exceeded the domestic output necessitating huge imports. Futures market helps to bring price stability for the development of the underlying physical market. The present study investigates the volatility dynamics in spot and futures markets of select oil and oilseeds commodities. The objectives of this article are to study (a) the information transmission process between spot and futures markets, also called volatility spillover and (b) the impact of futures trading activity on the volatility of physical market prices. The commodities selected from oil and oilseeds segment are refined soya oil, mustard seed, crude palm oil, and mentha oil. The study uses basic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to capture volatility in prices of the selected commodities. Bivariate GARCH model makes use of information in the history of two different markets for testing volatility spillover between two markets of the same underlying commodity. The relationship between futures trading activity and spot price volatility is investigated for examining the impact of futures trading activity on the volatility of underlying spot market. Two variables, viz., futures trading volume and open interest are decomposed into expected and unexpected components and are taken as a proxy for the level of trading activity. The contemporaneous and dynamic relationships are studied with the help of augmented GARCH model and Granger causality, respectively. It is observed that there is an efficient transmission of information between spot and futures markets but it is the spot market which leads to the flow of information to futures and hence causes greater spillover of volatility. The spot market has a greater impact on the volatility of futures market, indicating that informational efficiency of oilseeds spot market is stronger than that of the futures market. The contemporaneous and dynamic relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading activity tested with econometric models provide evidence of the destabilizing impact of an unexpected increase in futures trading activity (volume or open interest) on the spot price volatility in three out of four commodities studied. This indicates that badly informed traders present in futures market are destabilizing the underlying spot market by inducing noise and lowering the information content of prices.
10
Samii, Massood V. "Oil futures and spot markets." OPEC Review 16, no. 4 (December 1992): 409–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0076.1992.tb00441.x.
Full text
11
Lin, Ching-Chung, Shen-Yuan Chen, Dar-Yeh Hwang, and Chien-Fu Lin. "Does Index Futures Dominate Index Spot? Evidence from Taiwan Market." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 05, no. 02 (June 2002): 255–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021909150200078x.
Full textAbstract:
By utilizing vector error correction model (VECM) and EGARCH model, this article uses 5-minute intraday data to examine the interaction of return and volatility between Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the newly introduced TAIEX futures. VECM model shows that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between index spot and index futures markets, but spot market plays a more important role in price discovery. The results of impulse response function and information share indicate that most of the price discovery happens in index spot market. The evidence of EGRACH shows that the impacts of spot and futures innovations are asymmetrical, and the volatility spillovers between spot and futures markets are bi-directional. However, the information flow from spot to futures is stronger. These results suggest that the TAIEX spot market dominates the TAIEX futures market in terms of return and volatility.
12
Monteiro, Claudio, Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, and L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez. "A strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets." E3S Web of Conferences 152 (2020): 03007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202015203007.
Full textAbstract:
This paper presents an original trading strategy for electricity buyers in futures markets. The strategy applies a medium-term electricity price forecasting model to predict the monthly average spot price which is used to evaluate the Risk Premium for a physical delivery under a monthly electricity futures contract. The proposed trading strategy aims to provide an advantage relatively to the traditional strategy of electricity buyers (used as benchmark), anticipating the good/wrong decision of buying electricity in the futures market instead in the day-ahead market. The mid-term monthly average spot price forecasting model, which supports the trading strategy, uses only information available from futures and spot markets at the decision moment. Both the new trading strategy and the monthly average spot price forecasting model, proposed in this paper, have been successfully tested with historical data of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), although they could be applied to other electricity markets.
13
Kang, Sang Hoon, and Seong-Min Yoon. "Volatility Spillover between the KOSPI 200 Spot and Futures Markets Using the VECM-DCC-GARCH Model." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 19, no. 3 (August 31, 2011): 233–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-03-2011-b0001.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates the price discovery, volatility spillover, and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the KOSPI 200 market and its futures contracts market. The investigation was performed using the VECM-DCC-GARCH approach. In the case of returns, we found a significant unidirectional information flow from the futures market to the spot market; this implies that the KOSPI 200 futures market plays an important role on the price discovery in the spot market. In addition, we found a strong bi-directional casualty involving the volatility interaction between the spot and futures markets; this implies that market volatility originating in the spot market will influence the volatility of the futures market and vice versa. We also found strong asymmetric volatility spillover effects between the two markets.
14
Zeng, Yong, and Lei Chen. "Price Discovery Analysis of Oil Futures Market: A View of Interaction Effect." Advanced Materials Research 433-440 (January 2012): 4366–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.433-440.4366.
Full textAbstract:
Whether oil futures market can perform price discovery function well is very important in global economics and energy markets. The interaction between oil spot and futures prices exists due to intraday information transfer and arbitrage trading. However, the traditional methods used in price discovery analysis ignore the interaction, and thus introduce the biased conclusions. This paper uses simultaneous equation analyze the interaction effect between oil spot and futures returns, estimates the model by the method of modified identification through heteroskedasticity (modified ITH) and examines price discovery function of oil futures markets. Using weekly spot and futures prices of Brent crude oil, gas oil and heating oil between Feb 12, 1999 and Jan 30, 2009, the results suggest oil futures return will affect the corresponding oil spot return. The unidirectional interaction exists. This indicates the information will transfer from futures markets to spot markets and oil futures markets have the major price discovery function. This paper also offers a new view of examining price discovery, i.e. interaction effect.
15
You, Shi, and Per Bromand Nørgård. "Economic Dispatch of Hydrogen Systems in Energy Spot Markets." Journal of Clean Energy Technologies 4, no. 2 (2015): 148–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/jocet.2016.v4.270.
Full text
16
Karmakar, Madhusudan. "Price Discoveries and Volatility Spillovers in S&P CNX Nifty Future and its Underlying Index CNX Nifty." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 34, no. 2 (April 2009): 41–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090920090204.
Full textAbstract:
In a perfectly functioning world, every piece of information should be reflected simultaneously in the underlying spot market and its futures markets. However, in reality, information can be disseminated in one market first and then transmitted to other markets due to market imperfections. And, if one market reacts faster to information than the other, a lead-lag relation is observed The lead-lag relationship in returns and volatilities between spot and futures markets is of interest to academics, practitioners, and regulators. In India, there are very few studies which have investigated the lead-lag relationship in the first moment of the spot and futures markets This study investigates the lead-lag relationship in the first moment as well as the second moment between the S&P CNX Nifty and the Nifty future. It also investigates how much of the volatility in one market can be explained by volatility innovations in the other market and how fast these movements transfer between these markets. It conducts Multivariate Cointegration tests on the long-run relation between these two markets. It investigates the daily price discovery process by exploring the common stochastic trend between the S&P CNX Nifty and the Nifty future based on vector error correction model (VECM). It examines the volatility spillover mechanism with a bivariate BEKK model. Finally, this study captures the effects of recent policy changes in the Indian stock market. The results reveal the following: The VECM results show that the Nifty futures dominate the cash market in price discovery. The bivariate BEKK model shows that although the persistent volatility spills over from one market to another market bi-directionally, past innovations originating in future market have the unidirectional significant effect on the present volatility of the spot market. The findings of the study thus suggest that the Nifty future is more informationally efficient than the underlying spot market. These findings may provide insights on the information transaction and index arbitrage between the CNX Nifty and futures markets.
17
R L, Manogna, and Aswini Kumar Mishra. "Price discovery and volatility spillover: an empirical evidence from spot and futures agricultural commodity markets in India." Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies 10, no. 4 (May 23, 2020): 447–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jadee-10-2019-0175.
Full textAbstract:
PurposePrice discovery and spillover effect are prominent indicators in the commodity futures market to protect the interest of consumers, farmers and to hedge sharp price fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillover in Indian agriculture spot and futures commodity markets.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) to examines the price discovery and spillover effects for nine most liquid agricultural commodities in spot and futures markets traded on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).FindingsThe VECM results show that price discovery exists in all the nine commodities with futures market leading the spot in case of six commodities, namely soybean seed, coriander, turmeric, castor seed, guar seed and chana. Whereas in case of three commodities (cotton seed, rape mustard seed and jeera), price discovery takes place in the spot market. The Granger causality tests indicate that futures markets have stronger ability to predict spot prices. Supporting these, the results from EGARCH volatility test reveal that there exist mutual spillover effects on futures and spot markets. Thus, it could be inferred that futures market is more efficient in price discovery of agricultural commodities in India.Research limitations/implicationsThese results can help the market participants to benefit by hedging out the uncertainty and the policymakers to design futures contracts to improve the efficiency of the agricultural commodity derivatives market.Practical implicationsThe findings provide fresh view on lead–lag relationship between future and spot prices using the latest data confirming that futures market indeed is dominant in price discovery.Originality/valueThere are very few studies that have explored the efficiency of the agricultural commodity spot and futures markets in India using both price discovery and volatility spillover in a detailed manner, especially at the individual agriculture commodity level.
18
Chung-Hyo, Hong. "A Study on the Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between Single-Stock Futures and Spot Markets: Focused on Korea‘s 4 Financial Holding Companies." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 19, no. 3 (August 31, 2011): 281–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-03-2011-b0003.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigated the price discovery and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between single stock futures and spot markets. For this purpose we employ 4 largest Korean financial holding companies's daily data covering the period from May 7, 2008 to the end of December, 2010. We introduce the Nelson (1991)'s Exponential GARCH models and the major empirical results are as follows; First, according to Johansen co-integration test, there is a long run relationship between the level variables of 4 financial holding companies' futures and cash markets. Second, based on Granger causality test, 3 financial holding companies's futures contracts among 4 have an impact on the spot returns at a significant level. Third, financial holding companies' futures and spot markets are influenced at 10% to 27% by previous price changes of each market. Fourth, there is a asymmetric volatility spillover effects in 4 financial holding companies futures markets. From this result we infer that individual futures and spot markets in banking area are more sensitive to bad news than good news. These empirical results are consistent with the those of Sakthivel and Kamaiah (2010), Chan et al.(1991), Lien and Tse (2000), Yang et al.(2001) and from these results we infer that 4 single stock futures market are more efficient than those of there spot markets.
19
Fan, Xuejun, and De Du. "The spillover effect between CSI 500 index futures market and the spot market." China Finance Review International 7, no. 2 (May 15, 2017): 249–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cfri-08-2016-0103.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose Focusing on the spillover effects between the CSI 500 stock index futures market and its underlying spot market during April to September 2015, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether Chinese stock index futures should be responsible for the 2015 stock market crash. Design/methodology/approach Using both linear and non-linear econometric models, this paper empirically examines the mean spillover and the volatility spillover between the CSI 500 stock index futures market and the underlying spot market. Findings The results showed the following: the CSI 500 stock index futures market has significant one-way mean spillover effect on its spot market. The volatility in CSI 500 stock index futures market also has a significant positive spillover effect on its spot stock market, and the mean value of dynamic correlation coefficient between the two market volatility is 0.4848. The spillover effect of the CSI 500 stock index futures market on the underlying spot market is significantly asymmetric, characterized by relatively moderate and slow during the period of the markets rising, yet violent and rapid during the period of the markets falling. The findings suggest that although the stock index futures itself was not the “culprit” of Chinese stock market crash in 2015, its existence indeed accelerated and exacerbated the stock market’s decline under the imperfect trading system. Originality/value Different from the existing literature mainly focusing on CSI 300 stock index futures, this paper empirically examines the impact of the introduction of CSI 500 stock index futures on 2015 Chinese stock market crash for the first time.
20
Liu, Yi, Peng Li, and Zhiwei Zhang. "Resilient or Not: A Comparative Case Study of Ten Local Water Markets in China." Sustainability 10, no. 11 (November 2, 2018): 4020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10114020.
Full textAbstract:
Despite the global expansion of water markets, their resilience has received little scholarly attention, even though they are vulnerable to external and internal disturbances. Since the 1990s, the water market has been actively promoted by China as an important institutional coordination mechanism for efficient water use. This article examines what contextual factors, in configurations, contribute to the resilience of water markets in China. We distinguish between resilient and factitious water markets as two outcome variables and distil four conditions from market environmentalism to explain the variance in their outcomes: ownership of water entitlements, market intermediaries, water pricing, and spot/forward trade categories. Using crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA), we analyzed seven resilient and three factitious water markets in China. Our findings show that a water market’s framework is multidimensional and complex and that no necessary conditions contribute to resilience. Two sufficient solutions display the configurational complexity of water markets’ resilience. Path 1 includes strong intermediary, uncompetitive price, and forward water trade. Path 2 includes privatization of water entitlements, spot contracts, and competitive pricing. Weak intermediary together with forward water trade determines factitious water markets. The QCA results reveal that there exist multiple paths that a resilient water market can follow and develop. Therefore, policymakers must be cautious about pushing for water market indiscriminately, especially by over-privatization and unlimited investment in water banks.
21
Hong, Bae Gi, and Su Jae Jang. "A Comparative Analysis of Informational Efficiency of KOSDAQ50 and KOSPI200 Index Futures." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 11, no. 2 (November 30, 2003): 27–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-02-2003-b0002.
Full textAbstract:
This paper examines the information efficiency of KOSDAQ50 and KOSPI200 index futures markets. The study analyzes and compares both markets in three respects : 1) price discovery (lead-lag relationship between spot and futures markets.), 2) volatility-volume relationship, and 3) mispricings between spot and futures prices. The first, analysis shows the in the KOSPI200 market, futures price leads spot price. While spot price leads futures price in the KOSDAQ50 market. The second analysis shows that the volatility-volume relation is positive in the KOSPI200 futures market, supporting the hypothesis of mixture of distribution. In contrast, there is little relation between volume and volatility in the KOSDAQ50 futures market. This result casts doubt that the futures market price reflects information. The last analysis shows that the magnitude of mispricing becomes smaller with more volume in the KOSPI200 futures market, while it becomes larger with more volume in the KOSDAQ50 futures market. The overall results imply that the KOSDAQ50 futures market is less informationally efficient that the KOSPI200 market. The inefficiency appears due to the lack of institutional investor participation, especially securities firms, in making up the market.
22
Kumar Mahalik, Mantu, Debashis Acharya, and M. Suresh Babu. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets." Journal of Advances in Management Research 11, no. 2 (July 29, 2014): 211–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jamr-09-2012-0039.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets. Design/methodology/approach – The study has used four futures and spot indices of Multi-Commodity Exchange, Mumbai. The study also employs vector error correction model (VECM) and bivariate exponential Garch model (EGARCH) to analyze the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity market. Findings – The VECM shows that agriculture future price index (LAGRIFP), energy future price index (LENERGYFP) and aggregate commodity index (LCOMDEXFP) effectively serve the price discovery function in the spot market implying that there is a flow of information from future to spot commodity markets but the reverse causality does not exist. There is no cointegrating relationship between metal future price index (LMETALFP) and metal spot price index (LMETALSP). Besides the bivariate EGARCH model indicates that although the innovations in one market can predict the volatility in another market, the volatility spillovers from future to the spot market are dominant in the case of LENERGY and LCOMDEX index while LAGRISP acts as a source of volatility toward the agri-futures market. Research limitations/implications – The results are aggregate in nature. Further study at disaggregated level will provide further insights on behavior of specific commodity prices and the price discovery process. Originality/value – The paper provides useful information about the evolution and structures of futures commodity trading in India, related literature and relevant methodology concerning the hypotheses.
23
Gupta, C. P., Sanjay Sehgal, and Sahaj Wadhwa. "Agricultural Commodity Trading: Is it Destabilizing Spot Markets?" Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 43, no. 1 (March 2018): 47–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090917750263.
Full textAbstract:
Executive Summary The future trading has been held responsible by certain political and interest groups of enhancing speculative trading activities and causing volatility in the spot market, thereby further spiralling up inflation. This study examines the effect of future of trading activity on spot market volatility. The study first determined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected future trading volume and spot market volatility. It then examined the Granger causal relationship between unexpected open interest and spot market volatility. The spot volatility and liquidity was modelled using EGARCH and unexpected trading volume. The expected trading volume and open interest was calculated by using the 21-day moving average, and the difference between actual and expected component was treated as the unexpected trading volume and unexpected open interest. Empirical results confirm that for chickpeas ( channa), cluster bean ( guar seed), pepper, refined soy oil, and wheat, the future (unexpected) liquidity leads spot market volatility. The causal relationship implies that trading volume, which is a proxy for speculators and day traders, is dominant in the future market and leads volatility in the spot market. The results are in conformity with earlier empirical findings — Yang, Balyeat and Leathan (2005) and Nath and Lingareddy (2008) —that future trading destabilizes the spot market for agricultural commodities. Results show that there is no causal relationship between future open interest and spot volatility for all commodities except refined soy oil and wheat. The findings imply that open interest, which is a proxy of hedging activity, is leading to volatility in spot market for refined soy oil and wheat. The results are in conformity to earlier empirical studies that there is a weak causal feedback between future unexpected open interest and volatility in spot market ( Yang et al., 2005 ). For chickpeas (channa), the increase in volatility in the spot market increases trading activity in the future market. The findings are contrary to earlier empirical evidence ( Chatrath, Ramchander, & Song, 1996 ; Yang et al., 2005 ) that increase in spot volatility reduces future trading activity. However, they are in conformity to Chen, Cuny and Haugen (1995) that increase in spot volatility increases future open interest. The results reveal that the future market has been unable to engage sufficient hedging activity. Thereby, a causal relationship exists only for future trading volume and spot volatility, and not for future open interest and spot volatility. The results have major implications for policymakers, investment managers, and for researchers as well. The study contributes to literature on price discovery, spillovers, and price destabilization for Indian commodity markets.
24
Chen, Hao, Zhixin Liu, Yinpeng Zhang, and You Wu. "The Linkages of Carbon Spot-Futures: Evidence from EU-ETS in the Third Phase." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (March 23, 2020): 2517. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062517.
Full textAbstract:
Based on the prices selected from European Energy Exchange (EEX) from 2013 to 2018, we investigate the inter-correlation of carbon spot and futures markets. Specifically, we adopt the widely used DCC-GARCH model and VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to conduct a comprehensive analysis on the carbon market, i.e., the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover between carbon spot and carbon futures. Moreover, we develop a hedge strategy based on the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model and calculate the hedging effectiveness (HE) value to evaluate the strategy performance. The empirical results show that (i) during our sample period, carbon spot and futures markets are highly correlated, (ii) carbon spot overflows to the futures market and vice versa, and (iii) the HE value is equal to 0.9370, indicating a good performance for the hedging strategy. Then, we provide further discussion on the relationship between carbon spot and futures markets by replacing our dataset with the data of phase II. The results do not change our conclusions on the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover. However, the HE value of phase III is higher than that of phase II, which indicates that the carbon futures market of phase III is not only an available market to hedge risk from the contemporaneous carbon spot market but also has a better hedge effectiveness than phase II.
25
Jain, Vaishali, Rahul Dhaigude, and Rajiv Divekar. "Empirical Evidence of the Causative Association between Spot, Futures and Options Market: An ARDL Model Approach." Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting 11, no. 1 (June 26, 2020): 202. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v11i1.14645.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore and provide evidence about the nature of short run causal relationship as well as the speed with which prices adjust towards achieving the long run equilibrium between cash and FAO markets in India as represented by National Stock Exchange. The study uses individual stocks for studying the underlying relationship.Design/Methodology: The paper makes use of the auto regressive distributed lag model to study the causal relationship between spot, futures and options markets. The study makes use of the 15-minute interval trades data for the purpose of analysis.Findings: The ARDL model shows a long run association between spot, futures & options (both call & put) prices but we do not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude the short run causal association between the variable except for call and put options.Practical Implications: The results indicate that derivative markets are not leading the spot market but spot market contributes towards price discovery in the FAO markets. Potential investors can take their positions and design their portfolio in the cash and FAO segments using the insights provided by this piece of work.Originality/Value: This paper is an original piece of work towards evidencing the causative association between spot, futures and options markets using individual securities. Matters pertaining to price discovery process in Indian financial markets are issues of interest for financial thinkers, traders, investors and financial analysts.
26
Kang, Seok-Kyu. "A Study on the Price Discovery in Korea Stock Index Markets: KODEX200, KOSPI200, and KOSPI200 Futures." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 17, no. 3 (August 31, 2009): 67–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-03-2009-b0003.
Full textAbstract:
This paper examines the price discovery process among the Korea stock index markets using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the multivariate generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH) model. The minute-by-minute price series of the KOSPI200 index, KOSPI200 futures, and KODEX200 are cointegrated. The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, VECM estimation results indicate that when the cointegrating relationship is perturbed by the arrival of ntis, the KODEX200(ETF) does not adjusted to restore equilibrium. This is the task of the KOSPI200 futures and spot. These two index securities use the KODEX200 to represent the ntioequilibrium price, with the KOSPI200 futures responding faster than the KOSPI200 spot. When the cointegrating relationship betweeiesOSPI200 spot and futues is perturbed by the arrival of ntis, the KOSPI200 spot does adjusted to restore equilibrium. Next, the results from the multivariate GARCH modes indicate that the volatilities of esOSPI200 spot and futures markets suggest unidirectiona1volatility spillover from KOSPI200 futures to KOSPI200 spot. KODEX200(ETF) volatilities spill over bothesOSPI200 spot and futures markets. and this happen in the reverse direction with a strong effect from the KODEX200 to KOSP200 futures and spot. The overall findings indicate that the KODEX200(ETF) market dominates KOSPI200 futures and spot in the price discovery process. The regulation of Instutional traders on trading on futures markets explains its superior price discovery function.
27
Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, and Ali Parhizgari. "Major Currency ETFs and Their Associated Spot and Futures Rates." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 20, no. 04 (November 2, 2017): 1750026. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091517500266.
Full textAbstract:
To find a substitute vehicle for a direct investment in currencies, we study the behaviors of six major currency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and their respective spot and futures markets prior to and during the financial crisis of 2008. Our findings indicate that currency ETFs are near-perfect substitutes for a direct investment in currencies. We observe statistically significant differences in market behavior from the non-crisis subperiod to the crisis subperiod. Notwithstanding these differences, the price discovery of both the spot and the futures currency markets relative to their associated ETFs is overwhelming, consistent, and, to a large extent, similar. Under more stable conditions, the spot and the futures currency markets possess more dominant informational positions relative to their corresponding ETF markets.
28
Ohi, Tomoko, Yasuhiro Hashimoto, Yu Chen, and Hirotada Ohashi. "Simulation of Futures and Spot Markets by Using an Agent-Based Multi-Market Model." Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics 15, no. 2 (March 20, 2011): 204–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2011.p0204.
Full textAbstract:
The agent-based multi-market model we propose simulates futures and spot markets. On the basis of trading strategies in real markets, four kinds of agents - arbitragers, hedgers, speculators, and noise traders - are included in our model. Interactions of the two markets are generated through various agent trading behavior. We also statistically analyzed futures and spot prices of the Nikkei 225 index, where we found a large positive correlation between the two prices and a fat-tail distribution of the basis. Simulations results show that, instead of the conventional single-market model, only the two-market model reproduces both statistical properties of futures prices.
29
Burger, Markus, Bernhard Klar, Alfred Müller, and Gero Schindlmayr. "A spot market model for pricing derivatives in electricity markets." Quantitative Finance 4, no. 1 (February 2004): 109–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1469-7688/4/1/010.
Full text
30
Naipunya, J., I. Bhavani Devi, and D. Vishnusankar Rao. "Efficiency of chilli futures trading in terms of price discovery and price transmission." INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS 11, no. 2 (September 15, 2020): 137–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.15740/has/irjaes/11.2/137-143.
Full textAbstract:
This paper has examined the efficiency of futures trading of chilli in terms of price discovery and transmission. Seemingly unrelated regression” (SUR) model, Johansen’s multiple cointegrationtest, granger causality test and vector error correction model was applied to draw the results. Chilli spot market (Guntur) was efficient in price discovery. The Silbers and Garbage value of futures market was 0.0403 being significant at 1 per cent level (0.0037) indicating that futures market of chilli was inefficient in price discovery. The findings of the ADF test suggested that futures and spot prices of chilli attained stationarity at first difference. The co-integration test revealed the presence of one co-integrating equation and confirmed the long-run equilibrium relationship among futures and spot prices of chilli and spot markets came to short-run equilibrium as indicated by level of significance at 5 per cent i.e. (0.022), any disturbances in price would get corrected within 3 hours in spot markets as indicated by co-efficient values.
31
Edge, Gordon. "Environmental policy and electricity spot markets." Utilities Policy 2, no. 4 (October 1992): 314–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0957-1787(92)90011-7.
Full text
32
Etzion, Hila, and Edieal J. Pinker. "Asymmetric Competition in B2B Spot Markets." Production and Operations Management 17, no. 2 (March 2008): 150–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.3401/poms.1080.0014.
Full text
33
Meneu, Vicente, and Hipòlit Torró. "Asymmetric covariance in spot-futures markets." Journal of Futures Markets 23, no. 11 (September 4, 2003): 1019–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fut.10099.
Full text
34
Banal-Estañol, Albert, and Augusto Rupérez Micola. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets." European Journal of Operational Research 214, no. 1 (October 2011): 147–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.03.041.
Full text
35
Kim, Hong Bae, and Sang Hoon Kang. "Price Discovery and Transmission Mechanism between CDS and FX markets." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 19, no. 1 (February 28, 2011): 37–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-01-2011-b0002.
Full textAbstract:
This study investigated the relationship between the CDS (credit default swap) market with the FX spot (FX swap) market, including the period of recent global financial crisis. A measure for market efficiency is the condition that the derivative markets dominate the asset market in price discovery. In our case, however, FX market should be leading the CDS market. We found FX (spot and Derivatives) market has co-integration relationship with CDS market. Looking at Gonzalo Granger (GG) and Hasbrouck's price discovery measure, we found the FX spot and derivatives market dominated CDS market in price discovery. This study has also examined the direction of shock spillover and volatility transmission between Korean CDS spread and Foreign exchange spot (FX swap) markets using the VECM bivariate GARCH approach. Our evidence suggested the presence of bi-directional shock volatility and volatility transmission between the CDS market and FX spot market partially exist. However, volatility spillover effects from CDS market to FX Swap market are stronger than in the reverse direction during the global financial crisis, indicating that the CDS spread signaling sovereign risk play a more important role in influencing the volatility of FX derivatives market. There are some particular features in FX market. The volatility and shock of CIP deviations reflecting arbitrage opportunities in FX swap market are influenced by those of CDS spread in tranquil period prior to Lehman failure. But after Lehman failure CDS played a crucial role in signaling credit risk in FX derivatives market. We found that higher liquidity and trading volume of market matters more in price discovery and information transmission.
36
Carnero, M., Jose Olmo, and Lorenzo Pascual. "Modelling the Dynamics of Fuel and EU Allowance Prices during Phase 3 of the EU ETS." Energies 11, no. 11 (November 14, 2018): 3148. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11113148.
Full textAbstract:
This article studies the relationship between the prices of fuel and EU Allowances (EUA) for carbon emissions during Phase 3 of the European Union Emissions Trading System. We find that the forward prices of EUA, coal, gas and Brent oil are jointly determined in equilibrium. The existence of such a long-run relationship entails a permanent-transitory decomposition for the series of EUA and fuel prices that reveals the short- and long-term causal influence of the EUA market in shaping the joint dynamics of fuel prices. This result complements the literature that suggests that EUA prices are driven by the dynamics of fuel prices. Interestingly, we do not find an equilibrium relationship in the spot market. EUA and fuel spot prices are driven by independent unit root processes. The differences between spot and forward markets are attributed to the tradability of forward prices that are used for speculation and hedging in financial markets. In contrast, spot prices are mainly driven by supply and demand in energy markets.
37
Siddiqui, Saif, and Preeti Roy. "Asymmetric information linkages across select futures and spot indices." Journal of Advances in Management Research 17, no. 3 (March 9, 2020): 397–419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jamr-10-2019-0197.
Full textAbstract:
PurposeThe study investigates the amplitude and direction of the movement of information between spot and futures indices. The study progresses to account for the investor's heterogeneity and compare the evolving structure of investors in emerging and developed economies. Further, the structural linkages in terms of returns and variance have been explored for the futures indices to contribute to meteor shower literature as explained by Engle et al. (1990); Yarovaya et al. (2017).Design/methodology/approachTo facilitate the purpose, the Indian and Chinese markets were selected to represent emerging economies and the United States for developed one. The bivariate wavelet cum BEKK-GARCH (1,1) model was estimated.FindingsFor the developed markets, like the United States, the spot market improves its information transmission role with time horizon while exactly opposite holds for the Chinese market. A bidirectional overnight information spillover was found for all three pairs. The Indian futures market was vulnerable to bad news from the other two markets. Evidence suggesting the dominance of institutional investors in the Chinese futures market and retail investors in the Indian futures market is found.Originality/valueThe spot–futures relation has been studied on both the time and frequency domains considering different investment horizons. Due consideration has been taken to account for the overlapping trading hours.
38
Hashimoto, Satoru. "A New Idea for LNG Trade: Enhancing Market Competition through a Tanker-Based Trading System." Journal of Asian Energy Studies 4 (2020): 9–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.24112/jaes.040002.
Full textAbstract:
This study proposes a new idea for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade based on Japan’s natural gas market. As part of their high rate of economic growth in recent decades, many Asian countries, including Japan, have constructed natural gas supply chains that are characterized by natural monopolies and vertically integrated companies. In addition, although Japan has a 50-year history of LNG imports, its domestic natural gas distribution mechanisms are not designed to create connections among markets. Therefore, domestic spot and futures markets have never operated efficiently. To promote Japanese domestic market competition, this study proposes a “tanker-based trading system” involving LNG tankers owned by a consortium of Japanese firms and supported by the Japanese government. This trading system would enhance the market efficiency of LNG-based operating countries. Thus, a spot market for natural gas in Japan and East Asia can be created using LNG tankers, and the natural gas trading system in Japan can play a role in spot markets similar to the Henry Hub and the National Balancing Point.
39
Pradipta, Muhammad Anas. "Investigation of the price linkage between Asian LNG spot and Far East Asian LNG prices and its implications." Indonesian Journal of Energy 1, no. 1 (February 28, 2018): 52–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.33116/ije.v1i1.13.
Full textAbstract:
For so many times, Far East Asian liquid natural gas (LNG) buyers have been using price linked to crude oil-indexed, now they need to find another alternative pricing formula for their crucial energy supply as a better price structure that could reflect the market is needed. LNG spot price is expected to be the pillar for the future LNG trading, especially for Far East Asia Market. As less and less long-term contracts are signed in the Far East Asia Market, this creates an additional demand for the LNG in the spot market, while it raises some issues about the presence of different LNG pricing mechanisms. Most of the LNG spot prices in Asia are indexed to the relatively low natural gas prices in Atlantic Basin. Furthermore, the advancement of drilling technology in the US drives down its natural gas prices, resulting in price discrepancies between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study investigates whether there is a price linkage between Asian LNG spot and East Asian LNG prices. This study comprehends 91 observations collected from January 2010 to July 2017. Johansen co-integration tests were carried out to examine the existence of long-run relationship on the spot, Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillip-Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were conducted first before proceeding to the co-integration tests. The results showed that Asian LNG spot prices did not have price linkage for monthly averages of Japanese and South Korean LNG prices. The analyses also indicated that Taiwan LNG markets move together with Asian LNG spot markets. As a conclusion, the results inferred that supply dependency on LNG spot cargoes governed the price linkage among these Asian LNG markets. The use of gas indexed LNG price mechanism did not reflect the economic fundamentals in Asia-Pacific Basin.
JEL Classification: Q41Keywords: Price linkage, Johansen co-integration, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillip-Perron, and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin, unit root tests, Far East Asian LNG spot prices, LNG spot and short-term cargoes, long-term contracts, spot prices, energy: demand and supply, prices
40
Rahman, Mohammad Maksudur, Christopher T. Bastian, Chian Jones Ritten, and Owen R. Phillips. "Subsidy Incidence in Privately Negotiated Spot Markets: Experimental Evidence." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 51, no. 02 (February 7, 2019): 219–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aae.2018.36.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractWe use experimental methods to investigate subsidy incidence, the transfer of subsidy payments from intended recipients to other economic agents, in privately negotiated spot markets. Our results show that market outcomes in treatments with a subsidy given to either buyers or sellers are significantly different from both a no-subsidy treatment and the competitive prediction of a 50% subsidy incidence. The disparity in incidence across treatments relative to predicted levels suggests that incidence equivalence does not hold in this market setting. Moreover, we find no statistical difference in market outcomes when benefits are framed as a “subsidy” versus a schedule shift.
41
Thazhugal Govindan Nair, Saji. "Measuring volatility spillovers and asymmetric responses of Agri commodity prices: evidence from spices and rubber futures in India." Indian Growth and Development Review 14, no. 2 (June 2, 2021): 242–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/igdr-10-2020-0147.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose This paper aims to investigate price responses and volatility spillovers between commodity spot and futures markets. The study ultimately seeks the evidence-based claims on the efficiency of the long run and short run horizontal price transmissions from futures markets to spot markets. Design/methodology/approach This study used the most recent daily price series of pepper, cardamom and rubber, during the period 2004–2019, use “cointegration-ECM-GARCH framework” and verify the persisting validity of the “expectancy theory” of commodity futures pricing. Findings The results offer overwhelming evidence of futures market dominance in the price discoveries and volatility spillovers in spot markets. However, this paper finds asymmetric responses between cash and futures prices across markets. The hedging efficiency of futures contracts is commodities specific’ where spices futures are more efficient than the rubber futures. Practical implications The study passes on vital information to the producers and traders of spices and rubber who have a potential interest in the use of futures contracts to make profits from arbitrage between futures and cash markets. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding asymmetric price linkages in markets for plantation crops.
42
BENTH, FRED ESPEN, and JŪRATĖ ŠALTYTĖ-BENTH. "THE NORMAL INVERSE GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTION AND SPOT PRICE MODELLING IN ENERGY MARKETS." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 07, no. 02 (March 2004): 177–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024904002360.
Full textAbstract:
We model spot prices in energy markets with exponential non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We generalize the classical geometric Brownian motion and Schwartz' mean-reversion model by introducing Lévy processes as the driving noise rather than Brownian motion. Instead of modelling the spot price dynamics as the solution of a stochastic differential equation with jumps, it is advantageous from a statistical point of view to model the price process directly. Imposing the normal inverse Gaussian distribution as the statistical model for the Lévy increments, we obtain a superior fit compared to the Gaussian model when applied to spot price data from the oil and gas markets. We also discuss the problem of pricing forwards and options and outline how to find the market price of risk in an incomplete market.
43
Al Fawzan, Fawzan Abdul Aziz. "Volatility and efficiency of the world crude oil market." Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences 31, no. 1 (May 18, 2015): 20–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jeas-12-2013-0043.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine volatility and the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (random walk) of world spot crude oil market. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH-M), exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH), and threshold GARCH (TGARCH) models. The data are selected from three markets: Dubai Vetch (DV), West Texas Intermediate, and Europe Brent Spot Price. Findings – The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for all estimated GARCH-M, EGARCH, and TGARCH models, indicating that these markets are inefficient and predictable. For daily data, the empirical results showed the presence of asymmetric effects, and the conditional variance process was found to be highly persistent. Originality/value – This study is unique in its nature as it examines three markets on three continents. In addition, one of these markets (DV) was not carried out by the previous study. This work takes into account the market location.
44
Khan, Safi Ullah. "Role of the Futures Market on Volatility and Price Discovery of the Spot Market: Evidence from Pakistan’s Stock Market." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 11, no. 2 (July 1, 2006): 107–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2006.v11.i2.a6.
Full textAbstract:
This paper focuses on the role of the financial futures market in the volatility of Pakistan’s stock market and determines whether the stock futures price is capable of providing some relevant information for predicting the spot price. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach is used to measure volatility in the spot and the futures market and to analyze the relationships between spot and futures market volatility. Causality and feedback relationships between the two markets are analyzed and determined through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Empirical results support the evidence that spot prices generally lead the futures prices in incorporating new information, and that volatility in the futures market does not increase volatility in the spot market. Rather the study finds more consistent support for the alternative hypothesis that volatility in the futures market may be an outgrowth of the volatile spot market.
45
Aguiar, Odilon Felipe Tavares, and Jonathan Dias Ferreira. "ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN TRADE STRATEGIES WITH FORWARD CONTRACTS ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE AND ON THE SPOT MARKET IN CASCAVEL, BRAZIL." Revista em Agronegócio e Meio Ambiente 12, no. 4 (September 30, 2019): 1487. http://dx.doi.org/10.17765/2176-9168.2019v12n4p1487-1505.
Full textAbstract:
In the wake of frequent variables that interfere with the agricultural market, rural agents (producers) suffer liabilities due to their decisions, especially at the moment of commercialization. The forward market is precisely a strategy that may reduce the risks in oscillating prices of commodities and makes way towards the future formation of prices. Current paper compares the commercialization of soybeans in the forward and spot markets in terms of prices practiced between the harvest years 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. Data provided by the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were used as reference for forward contracts traded in September with maturation in January and spot prices practiced in January retrieved from data from Coopavel in Cascavel PR Brazil. Forward contracts traded in September with maturity in January had a better performance when compared to January spot prices for harvests 2011/2012, 2012/2013, 2013/2014. Due to fluctuations in weather and market trends, they were the factors that weighed most on harvests 2014/2015, 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 for better prices on most of the maturities for January on the spot market. Results show that, although spot price was better in certain periods, the marketing strategy on forward markets is highly interesting since the producer can employ profits and have guarantees against market risks
46
Cadarajat, Yayat, and Alexander Lubis. "OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE IDR MARKET: EVIDENCE ON INFORMATION SPILLOVER." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 4 (June 29, 2012): 343–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.363.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates the information transmission between off-shore and on-shore Rupiah currency markets Indonesian. We found the evidence of persistent volatility in all IDR/USD markets. Using EGARCH model on daily data for the period of 2008 - 2011, this paper provide several empirical conclusions.-First, the persistent volatility in all IDR/USD currency markets is evident. Second, the leverage effects are present in the rupiah exchange rates, indicating that IDR/USD markets have responded more to depreciation than appreciation, which is generally common in emerging market currencies. Third, the evidence of mean spillover are observed to be uni-directional; from NDF to both spot and forward rupiah markets. However, there are two ways return transmission between NDF and forward rate changes in the period of Europe crisis. Fourth, on the volatility, the spillover is only significant from NDF market to spot market for the entire period. However, in the time of crises, there is interdependence between volatility in offshore NDF and onshore spot rate changes, while information transmission is only valid from NDF to forward rate changes, not the other way around. Fifth, the negative spread of domestic interest rate may lead to depreciation pressure on the currency and positive spread may indicate the appreciation pressure.Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Non-Deliverable Forward, exchange rate, spillover, EGARCH.JEL Classification: F31, G13, C51
47
Cadarajat, Yayat, and Alexander Lubis. "OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE IDR MARKET: AN EVIDENCE ON INFORMATION SPILLOVER." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 14, no. 4 (June 29, 2012): 323–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i4.411.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates the information transmission between off-shore and on-shore Rupiah currency markets Indonesian. We found the evidence of persistent volatility in all IDR/USD markets. Using EGARCH model on daily data for the period of 2008 - 2011, this paper provide several empirical conclusions.-First, the persistent volatility in all IDR/USD currency markets is evident. Second, the leverage effects are present in the rupiah exchange rates, indicating that IDR/USD markets have responded more to depreciation than appreciation, which is generally common in emerging market currencies. Third, the evidence of mean spillover are observed to be uni-directional; from NDF to both spot and forward rupiah markets. However, there are two ways return transmission between NDF and forward rate changes in the period of Europe crisis. Fourth, on the volatility, the spillover is only significant from NDF market to spot market for the entire period. However, in the time of crises, there is interdependence between volatility in offshore NDF and onshore spot rate changes, while information transmission is only valid from NDF to forward rate changes, not the other way around. Fifth, the negative spread of domestic interest rate may lead to depreciation pressure on the currency and positive spread may indicate the appreciation pressure. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Non-Deliverable Forward, exchange rate, spillover, EGARCH.JEL Classification: F31, G13, C51
48
Baek, In Seok, and Byung Jin Kang. "The Dynamic Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates with Stochastic Volatility and Jump Diffusion Models-Evidences from KRW/USD Spot and Option Markets." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 19, no. 1 (February 28, 2011): 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-01-2011-b0001.
Full textAbstract:
This paper assesses the empirical performances of the continuous-time models, including constant volatility (Black and Scholes, 1973), stochastic volatility (Heston, 1993), and stochastic volatility with jumps (Bates, 1996), in FX spot and option markets. To analyze the spot market, we used the EMM (Efficient Method of Moments) methods with daily KRW/USD spot exchange rates from November 1997 through July 2009. First, the empirical results find that the Bates model highly outperforms the other modelsin explaining the dynamic behavior of KRW/USD spot exchange rates. Second, we also find that the jump components carry out an important role in generating leptokurtic properties of KRW/USD spot exchange rates, on the other hand, stochastic volatilities perform a critical role in generating skewed properties of them. To analyze the option market, we examined the daily cross-sectional prices of the KRW/USD OTC options from January 2006 through March 2010. The empirical results from the option markets confirm that the Bates model clearly outperforms the other modelsin explaining the observed patterns of implied-volatility smile or smirk.
49
Fong, Lik, and Chulwoo Han. "Impacts of derivative markets on spot market volatility and their persistence." Applied Economics 47, no. 22 (February 3, 2015): 2250–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1005813.
Full text
50
Aguado, J. A., V. H. Quintana, M. Madrigal, and W. D. Rosehart. "Coordinated Spot Market for Congestion Management of Inter-Regional Electricity Markets." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 19, no. 1 (February 2004): 180–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2003.820693.
Full text