Journal articles: 'Spread betting'

1

Buik, David. "Financial spread betting." Significance 3, no. 1 (March 2006): 26–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2006.00148.x.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Fodor, Andy, Kevin Krieger, David Kirch David Kirch, and Andrew Kreutzer. "INFORMATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN NFL POINT SPREAD AND MONEYLINE MARKETS." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 2 (December 19, 2012): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i2.498.

Full text

Abstract:

In this paper we test the efficiency of NFL betting markets by examining the ability of NFL point spread and moneyline markets to incorporate information. While bookmakers may properly evaluate available information when setting point spreads and moneylines, we show that the nature of point spread markets makes full information incorporation difficult. We test if information from the finer moneyline market can be used to predict whether favorites will cover the spread in the point spread market. We find that for games with the same point spread, betting on (against) the most (least) favored teams to win (lose), according to the moneyline, results in chances to profit, suggesting an inefficiency in the point spread market.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Jang-Young, Lee. "Legal Spread of Sports Betting Industry." kookmin Social Science Review 32, no. 01 (August 31, 2019): 97–122. http://dx.doi.org/10.54711/kssr.32.1.04.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

Hong, Yancheng, and Steven Skiena. "The Wisdom of Bookies? Sentiment Analysis Versus. the NFL Point Spread." Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media 4, no. 1 (May 16, 2010): 251–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v4i1.14074.

Full text

Abstract:

The American Football betting market provides a particularly attractive domain to study the nexus between public sentiment and the wisdom of crowds. In this paper, we present the first substantial study of the relationship between the NFL betting line and public opinion expressed in blogs and microblogs (Twitter). We perform a large-scale study of four distinct text streams: LiveJournal blogs, RSS blog feeds captured by Spinn3r, Twitter, and traditional news media. Our results show interesting disparities between the first and second halves of each season. We present evidence showing usefulness of sentiment on NFL betting. We demonstrate that a strategy betting roughly 30 games per year identified winner roughly 60% of the time from 2006 to 2009, well beyond what is needed to overcome the bookie's typical commission(53%).

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Lacey, Nelson J., and Donald R. Chambers. "Option Wagering in Point Spread Betting Markets." Journal of Derivatives 2, no. 1 (August 31, 1994): 31–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jod.1994.407903.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Fitt, A. D. "Markowitz portfolio theory for soccer spread betting." IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 20, no. 2 (August 29, 2008): 167–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpn028.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

GANDAR, JOHN, RICHARD ZUBER, THOMAS O'BRIEN, and BEN RUSSO. "Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market." Journal of Finance 43, no. 4 (September 1988): 995–1008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Davis, Justin, Jarrod Dawson, and Kevin Krieger. "Correlated Parlay Betting: An Analysis of Betting Market Profitability Scenarios in College Football." Journal of Prediction Markets 12, no. 2 (December 5, 2018): 68–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v12i2.1562.

Full text

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the case of potential “correlated parlays” in American college football wagering. The structure of college football games is such that games in which favorites prevail in “against-the-spread” (spread) bets are expected to be more likely to go over the posted “total” of the game. Using a longitudinal data set over the years from 2005-2015, our findings confirm this to be the case. However, to prevent bettors from utilizing this trend to profit in their wagers, many sportsbooks disallow some, or all, same-game parlay bets. Consequently, we find that sportsbooks have generally been too conservative in refusing such bets and have thus foregone profitability in the vast majority of betting situations. This analysis opens a new line of discussion in the area of sports market efficiency research – that of correlated parlay betting. We consider this case and present potential directions for future research.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Salaga, Steven, Scott Tainsky, and Michael Mondello. "Betting Market Outcomes and NBA Television Viewership." Journal of Sport Management 34, no. 2 (March 1, 2020): 161–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2019-0046.

Full text

Abstract:

The authors demonstrate that betting market outcomes are a statistically significant and economically relevant driver of local market television viewership in the National Basketball Association. Ratings are higher when the local market team covers the point spread and when point spread outcome uncertainty is increased. They further illustrate that point spread market outcomes have a larger relative impact on viewership in less-popular games and when the local market team is expected to perform poorly. This suggests wagering market access serves as insurance to the league and its franchises against reduced viewership in games that are less appealing to consumers. The results assess the degree to which wagering interest has driven past revenues as well as how the legalization of sports wagering may influence future revenues.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Haigh, John. "The Kelly Criterion and Bet Comparisons in Spread Betting." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 49, no. 4 (December 2000): 531–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00251.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Birge, John R., Yifan Feng, N. Bora Keskin, and Adam Schultz. "Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets with Informed Bettors." Operations Research 69, no. 6 (November 2021): 1746–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2109.

Full text

Abstract:

How Bookies Can Outwit Sophisticated Bettors Sports-betting markets are based entirely on predictions. A bettor has to pick a winning contestant, and a market maker―a bookie―bets on the opponent. As bookies have to take the other side of every bet, it is of great value to understand the market making problem, that is, how to set the spread lines as “prices” for the bookies. Nevertheless, understanding of this problem is limited. Specifically, sophisticated bettors exist in the market, and a bookie can be manipulated by skillful bettors because of information asymmetry. In “Dynamic Learning and Market Making in Spread Betting Markets with Informed Bettors,” Birge, Feng, Keskin, and Schultz study the market-making problem under information asymmetry and market manipulation. They show that, although many popular learning and pricing algorithms, such as Bayesian policies, are effective in learning, they are vulnerable to strategic manipulations. The authors propose a dynamic learning and pricing algorithm, called the inertial policy, that collects information from the market effectively but also protects the bookie from strategic manipulations.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

Durham, Greg, and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan. "Point-Spread Wagering Markets' Analogue to Realized Return in Financial Markets." Journal of Sports Economics 13, no. 5 (July 20, 2011): 554–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002511413777.

Full text

Abstract:

Tests for market efficiency and rational behavior in financial markets commonly utilize realized return as the variable of interest. Researchers who study point-spread wagering markets for sporting events generally agree that the point spread is these markets' analogue to asset price in financial markets. An issue that is less clear, to date, is upon exactly which variable researchers should focus when testing for efficiency and rationality in point-spread betting markets. The objective of this article is to verify that change in point spread is an acceptable proxy for realized return.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

Chin, Daniel M. "A TEST OF UNBIASEDNESS AND SPORTS BOOK PROFITS IN THE NFL POINT SPREAD BETTING MARKET USING CIRCADIAN ADVANTAGE." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 3 (January 2, 2013): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i3.571.

Full text

Abstract:

Medical research shows that the human body typically performs at its best during late afternoon hours, and that the results of National Football League (NFL) games can partly be explained by differences in these levels of performance, coined the circadian advantage, when teams based in different time zones play against each other. This paper uses an augmented version of Dare and Holland’s (2004) generalized model to provide evidence that a circadian advantage bias exists in the NFL betting market. Detailed betting data used here supports results from Levitt (2004) and Paul and Weinbach (2007) by showing that sports books make use of the bias by setting odds that bait bettors who are unaware of the circadian advantage into making what tends to be a losing wager on the disadvantaged team.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Durham, Greg, and Tod Perry. "THE IMPACT OF SENTIMENT ON POINT SPREADS IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL WAGERING MARKET." Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 1 (December 14, 2012): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i1.433.

Full text

Abstract:

This paper investigates whether sentimental bettors affect the point-spread-formation process in the college football wagering market, as well as whether this market is efficient. Following Avery and Chevalier (1999), this study focuses solely on sources of sentiment that have natural analogues in the stock market, such as predictions of so-called experts, momentum in teams’ performances, teams that are highly visible, and teams with high fan avidity. Sentiment relating to expert picks, even though the picks are uninformative, nonetheless is related to intraweek changes in spreads. Also, bettors’ sentiment for recent performance against the spread, for teams in major conferences, and for teams with high fan avidity appears to be related to spreads moving during the week. However, betting strategies designed to exploit any anticipated sentimental betting are marginally profitable at best, suggesting that rational arbitrageurs serve to correct most biases in spreads.The authors express thanks to Bruno Deschamps, Michael Hertzel, Michael Lemmon, J. Spencer Martin, Federico Nardari, Rodney Paul, and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan for careful feedback and thoughtful suggestions. The authors are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at the UC Riverside Conference on Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets, at the Financial Management Association meetings in Toronto, at Arizona State University, and at Montana State University. Greg Durham expresses a special thanks to Jim Harmon for providing historical data related to the Harmon Forecast. (The authors are responsible for any outstanding errors in this paper.)

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

Coleman, B. Jay. "Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market." Journal of Sports Economics 18, no. 4 (March 5, 2015): 388–425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002515574514.

Full text

Abstract:

This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market’s accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an “over” bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most consistently for late-season games involving an underdog with a 1-hr time deficit versus its opponent.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

Oliver, Peter. "FINANCIAL BINARY BETTING, STYLES, VALUATIONS AND DEDUCTIONS FROM DATA." Journal of Prediction Markets 1, no. 2 (December 14, 2012): 127–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v1i2.424.

Full text

Abstract:

A relatively new form of financial spread betting, the binary bet, has become popular. Part of the popularity of this style of bet, from the gambler’s point of view, is undoubtedly due to the simplicity and transparency of the contracts. The fact that these bets are free at the time they are taken is an added inducement. For the bet provider, as long as the correct buy and sell levels are maintained during the betting period and the betting frequency on any contract is high, it is again relatively simple to ensure a known income from the operation.Binary spread bets are examples of financial derivatives and the standard methods used in that field can be used to deduce the parameters that should apply. This gives useful information to the gamblers in telling them how much they are paying for the bet. Watching how the quotes are moving in time can also inform how the gambling community is behaving and what the average view of the outcome is.A variety of types of binary bets are valued and in many cases it is possible to derive analytic formulas. These can be applied to time series data that are acquired from quotes and used to deduce information about the bets held by a provider and the market expectations of the community.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

Shank, Corey A. "NFL betting market efficiency, divisional rivals, and profitable strategies." Studies in Economics and Finance 36, no. 4 (October 7, 2019): 567–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-11-2018-0354.

Full text

Abstract:

Purpose This paper aims to examine market inefficiencies in the National Football League (NFL) betting market from the 2003 season to the 2016 season. Design/methodology/approach The author examines the impact that division rivals and previously known determinants of inefficiencies have on the current NFL gambling market. Findings The results show that games against division rivals have a lower chance of the home team covering the spread and the chance the game will result in an over. This result demonstrates that the sportsbooks underestimate the familiarity that teams have with each other’s players, coaches and tendencies from playing each other twice per year. Moreover, using this result in conjunction with previous known inefficiencies, the author puts forth a model to test out of sample predictions. The results from these tests show profitable strategies in the point spread and totals market with a win rate of nearly 57 per cent. Originality/value Overall, this paper demonstrates inefficiencies in the NFL betting market that future bettors may be able to take advantage of.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Lacey, Nelson J. "An estimation of market efficiency in the NFL point spread betting market." Applied Economics 22, no. 1 (January 1990): 117–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000056.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

Humphreys, Brad R., Rodney J. Paul, and Andrew Weinbach. "Understanding Price Movements in Point-Spread Betting Markets: Evidence from NCAA Basketball." Eastern Economic Journal 40, no. 4 (March 4, 2013): 518–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/eej.2013.10.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

Paul, Rodney, Andrew Weinbach, and Mark Wilson. "Bettor Habits When Point Spreads and Money lines are Offered on the Same Game: The NFL." Journal of Prediction Markets 8, no. 3 (January 8, 2015): 57–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v8i3.976.

Full text

Abstract:

Bettor preferences and returns are examined in the NFL wagering market where both point spread and money line wagers are simultaneously offered. In both markets, the balanced book hypothesis can be soundly rejected, with bettors preferring favorites. Despite the clear difference in how a winning bet on the favorite is achieved in each market, the percentage bet on the favorite in both the point spread and money line markets correspond nearly one-to-one. Biases are most pronounced in certain subsets of the data, where betting against favorites on both the point spread and money line are shown to reject market efficiency.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Borghesi, Richard, Rodney Paul, and Andy Weinbach. "Totals Markets as Evidence Against Widespread Point Shaving." Journal of Prediction Markets 4, no. 2 (December 18, 2012): 15–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v4i2.475.

Full text

Abstract:

Wolfers (2006) suggests that NCAA basketball is marred by widespread gambling corruption. We examine totals wagers in a variety of sports betting markets to determine whether observed outcomes are symmetric around closing lines, an important assumption Wolfers makes in his analysis. Our results show that totals wagers result in just under outcomes more frequently than they result in just over outcomes. This occurs because gamblers strongly prefer to take the over in totals betting, and profit-seeking bookmakers capitalize by shading totals lines upwards. Likewise, prior work shows that gamblers in point spread markets strongly prefer to bet on favorites, so it is not surprising that win/no cover outcomes occur more frequently that do win/cover outcomes. We conclude that the critical but erroneous symmetric-distribution assumption is responsible for creating the illusion of widespread point shaving.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Kovačević, Ljubica. "Legal, financial and marketing aspects of games of chance in the Republic of Serbia." Bastina, no. 53 (2021): 313–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/bastina31-31228.

Full text

Abstract:

This paper mostly discusses legal and some economic aspects of games of chance as an economic activity. In that context, the negative effects of gambling and betting activities are pointed out, especially on the development and spread of social deviations due to the uncontrolled consumption of games of chance. The paper aims to indicate in what way, and to what extent, the legislation in the Republic of Serbia regulates gambling and betting activities, i.e., what impact the legislation has exclusively on the financial and marketing business aspects of the three most represented organizers of games of chance in this area. The first part of the paper points to the numerous specifics characterizing gambling and betting activities, i.e. special legal regulations that regulate each business segment in this activity. The second part of the paper presents a financial overview of the performance indicators of the three most represented organizers of games of chance. The final part of the paper is dedicated to the legal possibilities and restrictions to advertising games of chance, or the efforts of all three organizers to boost the promotion of their business by taking on socially responsible activities, keeping it with such an approach within the legal framework.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

Krieger, Kevin, Clay Girdner, Andy Fodor, and David Kirch. "THE POWER OF WAGERING ON POWER CONFERENCES." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 1 (April 30, 2013): 13–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i1.598.

Full text

Abstract:

We study the perceived discrepancy between power conference and mid-major college football teams by examining outcomes of games when these teams face one another. We find that point spreads are set statistically irrationally in games where power conference teams play mid-major teams. We examine all regular season games from the 2002-2011 seasons and find power conference teams cover the spread in a majority of games when facing a mid-major team to an extent that results in profitability over a ten-year period. We find that consistently betting power conference teams will cover point spreads when facing mid-major teams’ results in a return of roughly 2.94% over these seasons. Taking into account Associated Press rankings, the size of point spreads, and the week of the season when games are played, results in even greater profits.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

Woodland, M., and Linda M. Woodland. "Appropriate statistical methodology for testing the efficiency of betting markets involving spread and totals." Journal of Economics and Finance 29, no. 3 (September 2005): 385–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02761582.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

Paton, David, and Leighton Vaughan Williams. "Forecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use ?quarbs? to beat the book?" Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 2 (2005): 139–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.949.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Peres, Fernando, Enrico Fallacara, Luca Manzoni, Mauro Castelli, Aleš Popovič, Miguel Rodrigues, and Pedro Estevens. "Time Series Clustering of Online Gambling Activities for Addicted Users’ Detection." Applied Sciences 11, no. 5 (March 8, 2021): 2397. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11052397.

Full text

Abstract:

Ever since the worldwide demand for gambling services started to spread, its expansion has continued steadily. To wit, online gambling is a major industry in every European country, generating billions of Euros in revenue for commercial actors and governments alike. Despite such evidently beneficial effects, online gambling is ultimately a vast social experiment with potentially disastrous social and personal consequences that could result in an overall deterioration of social and familial relationships. Despite the relevance of this problem in society, there is a lack of tools for characterizing the behavior of online gamblers based on the data that are collected daily by betting platforms. This paper uses a time series clustering algorithm that can help decision-makers in identifying behaviors associated with potential pathological gamblers. In particular, experimental results obtained by analyzing sports event bets and black jack data demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method in detecting critical (i.e., pathological) players. This algorithm is the first component of a system developed in collaboration with the Portuguese authority for the control of betting activities.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

Waggoner, Benjamin, Daniel Wines, Brian Soebbing, Chad Seifried, and Jean Martinez. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis." International Journal of Financial Studies 2, no. 4 (November 25, 2014): 359–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs2040359.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Kuester, Daniel D., and Shane Sanders. "Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football." Journal of Economics and Finance 35, no. 1 (November 24, 2009): 116–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9113-3.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

O'Connor, Philip, and Feng Zhou. "THE TRADESPORTS NFL PREDICTION MARKET: AN ANALYSIS OF MARKET EFFICIENCY, TRANSACTION COSTS, AND BETTOR PREFERENCES." Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 1 (December 14, 2012): 45–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i1.435.

Full text

Abstract:

We investigated 1,587 Tradesports point spread contracts for NFL games during the 2005/06 season. Differing point spreads create differing odds, meaning we could test for the traditional favorite long shot bias in NFL betting. We found that there was no favorite long shot bias. However, the market underestimated the chances of the favored team winning by about 10% across all odds categories, and this bias persisted throughout the season. We found relatively low transaction costs. For a price-taker, the Tradesports “Vegas-line” point spread had a 2.2% total takeout including exchange fees, about half of the 4.55% takeout of traditional legal bookmakers. Contracts with a price around 50, creating even money returns to bets on both teams, and higher volume contracts, had lower transaction costs. Participants were found to prefer the Las Vegas line point spread contract followed by the straight-up contract. Trading volume during the game (in-running) was about twice the trading volume leading up to the game. Teams with better season records and from cities with larger populations generated a higher volume of trades. Sunday night and Monday night games generated about four times more volume than regular Sunday games.Helpful comments were provided by Adi Schnytzer and participants of the 2007 University of California-Riverside Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Conference, and an excellent anonymous referee. We thank Jared Hunt for computer assistance.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

Durham, Greg, and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan. "THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF STRENGTH AND WEIGHT IN PROCESSING NEW INFORMATION IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING MARKET." Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 2 (December 14, 2012): 13–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i2.439.

Full text

Abstract:

Griffin and Tversky (1992) suggest that individuals, when formulating posterior probabilities based on the available evidence, tend to overreact to a new piece of evidence’s strength while underreacting to the relative importance of its weight. We test this prediction using the college football betting market, a market that is commonly employed in tests for efficiency and rationality. Using average points in excess of the spread and streak against the spread as measures for strength and weight, respectively, we find that bettors overreact to strength and underreact to weight. These results are consistent with the predictions of Griffin and Tversky, as well as with the findings of Sorescu and Subrahmanyam (2006) and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) in financial market settings. Our work also provides insight into how behavioral biases might affect price-formation processes in other markets.The authors thank Tod Perry, Omar Shehryar, and Kumar Venkataraman for their careful feedback and thoughtful suggestions. The authors are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at the 2008 Midwest Finance Association meetings in San Antonio and 2008 Southwestern Finance Association meetings in Houston, as well as from seminar participants at Montana State University. (The authors are responsible for any outstanding errors in this paper.)

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

Paul, Rodney, Andrew P. Weinbach, and Eric Higger. "The “Large-Firm” Effect? Bettor Preferences and Market Prices in NCAA Football." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 2 (October 4, 2013): 29–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i2.751.

Full text

Abstract:

Abstract: NCAA football has a clear classification of “large” (AQ) and “small” (non-AQ) conferences. This setting lends itself to the testing of the “small-firm” effect found in financial markets in the college football betting market. The “small-firm” effect occurs when small cap firms outperform large cap firms; typically attributed to difficulty and costs in finding information on small firms. In college football, AQ-teams win more than implied by efficiency against non-AQ teams. At the same time, AQ teams receive a disproportionate share of bets on these games. The likely rationale behind these findings is the incentives created by the BCS system which leads the point spread to not be a true random variable within this market.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

Schnytzer, Adi, and Guy Weinberg. "Testing for Home Team and Favorite Biases in the Australian Rules Football Fixed-Odds and Point Spread Betting Markets." Journal of Sports Economics 9, no. 2 (May 9, 2007): 173–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002506299079.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

Kiesel, Florian, Felix Lücke, and Dirk Schiereck. "Regulation of uncovered sovereign credit default swaps – evidence from the European Union." Journal of Risk Finance 16, no. 4 (August 17, 2015): 425–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jrf-02-2015-0025.

Full text

Abstract:

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the impact and effectiveness of the regulation on the European sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. The European sovereign debt crisis has drawn considerable attention to the CDS market. CDS have the ability of a speculative instrument to bet against a sovereign default. Therefore, the Regulation (EU) No. 236/2012 was introduced as the worldwide first uncovered CDS regulation. It prohibits buying uncovered sovereign CDS contracts in the European Union (EU). Design/methodology/approach – First, this paper measures spread changes of sovereign CDS of the EU member states around regulation specific event dates to detect whether and when European sovereign CDS reacts to regulation announcements and the enforcement of regulation. Second, it compares the CDS long-term stability of the EU sample with a non-EU sample based on 44 non-EU sovereign CDS entities. Findings – The results indicate widening CDS spreads prior to the regulation, and stable CDS spreads following the introduction of the regulation. In particular, sovereign CDS of European crisis-hit entities are stable since the regulation was introduced. Originality/value – The results show that since the regulation of uncovered CDS in the EU has been enacted, the sovereign CDS market is stable and less volatile. Based on the theory about speculation on uncovered sovereign CDS by betting on the reference entity’s default, the introduction of Regulation (EU) No. 236/2012 appears to be an appropriate measure to stabilize markets and reduce speculation on sovereign defaults.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Borghesi, Richard. "THE IMPLICATIONS OF A REVERSE FAVOURITE-LONGSHOT BIAS IN A PREDICTION MARKET." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 2 (December 19, 2012): 12–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i2.499.

Full text

Abstract:

We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional casino-style NFL betting markets. That is, late-season away favourites so profoundly underperform expectations that the set of all favourites underperforms on average. Prior research shows that in prediction markets having asset prices ranging from $0 to $100, win rates are below (above) expectations when prices are low (high). However, we show that observed win rates for contracts on late-season away favourites are below expectations across all prices. The presence of a strong RFL bias in a prediction market provides evidence against the theories that this bias is caused by line shading or due to the effects of unpredicted weather variables on team performance.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

Gray, Joanna. "High court rules customer who opted from private to intermediate customer status to have been contributorily negligent to his spread betting losses." Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance 16, no. 4 (November 14, 2008): 414–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/13581980810918440.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

Movchan, O. V., I. Yu Bagmut, and I. V. Dosenko. "Risk factors of local relapses in patients with breast cancer depending on the properties of the primary tumor." PROBLEMS OF UNINTERRUPTED MEDICAL TRAINING AND SCIENCE 43, no. 3-4 (December 2021): 67–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.31071/promedosvity2021.03-04.067.

Full text

Abstract:

Of all a spread of disorders after mastectomy, most frequently we expect about the event of local relapse. The aim – to research the frequency of local relapses in patients with breast carcinoma, considering the subtype properties of the primary tumor. Materials. 6136 patients with breast carcinoma, including 146 patients with LR – main group, and 455 patients without LR – control group. They distributed betting on age, the state of the menstrual function, stage of the disease, histological type of cancer, grade, tumor subtype. Results. In step with the histological structure, ductal carcinoma was commonest. Established the 10-year non-relapse period in main group is longer with Luminal A and Triple-negative subtypes (61 vs 41%) compared to Luminal B and Her-2 / neu type with (3+) amplification (39 % vs 32 % respectively). Conclusions. The stage, histological structure, grade of the tumor does not significantly affect the frequency of local relapses breast cancer patients. The LR is more likely to occur in patients with luminal subtype B, while the littlest frequency of LR occurs with subtype A. Study of the menstrual status of the patient providing local relapses more often arise in women of pre-menopause. Established that the 10-year non-relapse period is that the best in patients with luminal A subtype and TNBC compared to luminal B and HER 2 type with (3+) amplification.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

Noble, James C., David S. Hik, and Anthony R. E. Sinclair. "Landscape ecology of the burrowing bettong: fire and marsupial biocontrol of shrubs in semi-arid Australia." Rangeland Journal 29, no. 1 (2007): 107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj06041.

Full text

Abstract:

Prior to European settlement, medium-sized marsupials, especially bettongs (Bettongia spp.), were widely distributed across arid and semi-arid Australia. Most disappeared rapidly in the late 1800s in the earliest settled rangelands such as the West Darling region of western New South Wales following the spread of domestic herbivores, rabbit invasion, exotic predators and loss of habitat. Because the burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) is the only fossorial macropod species, it left a clearly visible record of its past presence, distribution and habitat preferences in the form of substantial relict warrens, particularly in stony, ‘hard-red’ habitats. With the reduction in fire frequency because of excessive grazing pressures following European settlement in the 19th century, there was a rapid increase in the density of unpalatable native shrubs. We examine the hypothesis that periodic wildfires and browsing by bettongs were together able to regulate shrub densities in semi-arid rangelands in Australia. Information from various sources concerning the effects of fire, rainfall and browsing on the demography of shrubs was used to construct a model of shrub population dynamics. The model indicates the potential for two states for a given bettong density: first, a low shrub density maintained by a combination of periodic fire and bettong browsing; and second, a high shrub density in the absence of fire. These results have broad implications for pastoral and conservation management in Australian semi-arid rangelands.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

Abassi, B., E. Khelifa, O. Maatouk, S. Ben Aissa, I. Bouguerraa, and L. Mnif. "Gambling disorder and suicidal behavior : A case report :." European Psychiatry 65, S1 (June 2022): S830. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/j.eurpsy.2022.2149.

Full text

Abstract:

Introduction Gambling disorder involves repeated problematic gambling behavior that causes significant problems or distress. It is also called gambling addiction or compulsive gambling. In Tunisia, a muslum country, gambling is prohibited and casinos are non-existent or only for tourists with foreign currency. Lately, with the spread of casinos online and sites of sports betting, gambling’s become problematic in Tunisia. People accumulated huge debts with feelings of shame and guilt leading to suicidal attempts. Objectives Studying the link between gambling disorder and suicidal attempts and comparing the different preventive measures proposed for online gambling. Methods a case of a patient with gambling disorder that was hospitalized in a psychiatric hospital for a suicidal attempt by stabbing himself and a review of a literature. Results Mr R.A was a 42-year-old man with no family nor personal psychiatric history. He has no history of a particular substance use disorder. He was married and a father of two children and has a regular job. A year ago, he stated gambling on internet sites using his phone cell and, in several months, he lost a lot of money and accumulated debts. Lately he committed two attempts of suicide. The first one was by swallowing rat poison. The second one was a month later, by stabbing himself with a knife that caused evisceration and required surgery then an hospitalization in a psychiatric unit. Conclusions There’s evidence that GD and SB are associated, although there’s disagreement about the nature of this association. Adequate preventive measures should be considered by governments Disclosure No significant relationships.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

Paul, Rodney J., Andrew P. Weinbach, and Brad Humphreys. "REVISITING THE “HOT HAND” HYPOTHESIS IN THE NBA BETTING MARKET USING ACTUAL SPORTSBOOK BETTING PERCENTAGES ON FAVORITES AND UNDERDOGS." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 2 (January 2, 2013): 42–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i2.569.

Full text

Abstract:

The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks. Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book. Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games. Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases. The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book. Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency. However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets. This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias. This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

Horowitz, Ira. "INFORMATION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BETTING MARKET." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 5, no. 3 (January 2, 2013): 27–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v5i3.572.

Full text

Abstract:

Betting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Kochman, Ladd, David Bray, and Luc Noiset. "FOOTBALL BETTING AND BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS: A NOTE." INDIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ISSUES 3, no. 1 (2022): 33–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.47509/ijefi.2022.v03i01.02.

Full text

Abstract:

The strategy of oddsmakers to alter point spreads that capitalize on bettors’ preference for popular teams not only dooms regular profits for gamblers but also provides a clear example of imperfect decision-making for behavioral economists. The fear of regret suggests that bettors gravitate toward popular teams since any losses would not be peculiar to them. The implication that spreads on popular college teams would be inflated to balance bets and, in turn, create profit opportunities when betting against popular teams proved faulty.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

Sobczyk, Karolina, Mateusz Grajek, Mateusz Rozmiarek, and Krzysztof Sas-Nowosielski. "Local Governments Spending on Promoting Physical Activity during 2015–2020: Financial Data and the Opinion of Residents in Poland." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19 (October 6, 2022): 12798. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912798.

Full text

Abstract:

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected local governments involved in sports and recreation in designated areas. The unprecedented scale of the spread of the disease has led to increased research in the area of the disease, considering various correlations. However, little has been written about the impact of the pandemic on local government spending on recreation and sports services in Poland. Objective: The purpose of the article is to assess the level of local government involvement in the implementation of sports and recreation in Poland compared to other European Union countries, as well as changes in this level in connection with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the opinion of respondents. Methodology: In the study, the data regarding expenditures of local government units on recreational and sporting services collected in the Statistical Office of the European Union (EURO-STAT) for 2015–2020 were used. The survey portion was conducted among 1600 respondents who provided answers on a 5-item scale that addressed local government involvement in promoting physical activity among residents during COVID-19. Results and conclusion: Local government spending on recreational and sporting services in Poland between 2015 and 2019 increased by about 38%, from EUR 1524.7 million in 2015 to EUR 2103.5 million in 2019. This spending in 2019 was about 40% higher than the average for European Union countries. In contrast, in 2020 it amounted to more than EUR 1886 million and was more than 10% lower compared to the previous year (2019)—the pre-pandemic period. Despite the obstacles caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and budgetary constraints, cities in Poland took several measures in 2020 to maintain the current pace of development and strived to maintain the status of modern, green, and open, betting on balanced development also in aspects related to sports or culture. It was shown that the opinion of respondents mostly coincided with the existing financial state—in voivodeships where there had been a decrease in spending related to sports and recreation compared to the pre-pandemic period, residents are worse at assessing the activities of local governments related to promoting physical activity.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

Feddersen, Arne, Brad R. Humphreys, and Brian P. Soebbing. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting." Journal of Sports Economics 19, no. 4 (July 5, 2016): 455–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1527002516656726.

Full text

Abstract:

We develop evidence of bettors with sentiment bias in the betting market on National Basketball Association (NBA) games. We use measures of team popularity (arena capacity utilization and team all-star votes received) as proxies for the presence of biased bettors. Analysis of point spreads and bet outcomes for more than 32,000 NBA games played in 1981-2012 shows that bookmakers increase prices on games involving popular home teams, an outcome consistent with sentiment bias. These changes in prices do not translate into higher returns for bettors, suggesting that bookmakers shade point spreads to increase profits.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

Horowitz, Ira. "Seeds, spreads, and synchronicity in the Big Dance betting market." International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences 3, no. 1 (2010): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijads.2010.032237.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

Mallios, William. "FORECASTING NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE GAME OUTCOMES RELATIVE TO BETTING SPREADS." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 6, no. 3 (March 26, 2013): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v6i3.609.

Full text

Abstract:

Cointegrated time processes measuring NFL playoff game performances relative to the betting spreads are graphed in terms of candlestick charts and forecast in terms of autoregressive systems with time varying coefficients. Coefficients are modeled in terms of linear regressions on lagged shocks. Estimation is non Bayesian. Forecasts provide measures of market efficiency/inefficiency and outcome volatility. Risk assessment utilizes GARCH-type modeling in estimating volatility. Applications are presented for the New York Giants 2012 playoff games based on a data backlog of three years.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Amata and Crupi. "Extremal Betti Numbers of t-Spread Strongly Stable Ideals." Mathematics 7, no. 8 (August 2, 2019): 695. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math7080695.

Full text

Abstract:

Let K be a field and let S = K[x1, . . . , xn] be a polynomial ring over K. We analyze the extremal Betti numbers of special squarefree monomial ideals of S known as the t-spread stronglystable ideals, where t is an integer ≥ 1. A characterization of the extremal Betti numbers of such a class of ideals is given. Moreover, we determine the structure of the t-spread strongly stable idealswith the maximal number of extremal Betti numbers when t = 2.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

Lackritz, Jim, Bruce A. Reinig A. Reinig, and Ira Horowitz. "OVER-VALUED AND UNDER-DOGGED: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE SEEDING OF MID-MAJOR TEAMS IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 7, no. 1 (May 23, 2013): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v7i1.626.

Full text

Abstract:

We test whether the NCAA Selection Committee’s tournament seeding process is biased with respect to teams from the Mid-Major conferences, by analyzing Seeds, Spreads, Betting Lines, and the participants’ conference affiliations for the 819 games of the 13 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments played from 2000 to 2012. We demonstrate that the Selection Committee overvalues Mid-Major teams that receive a favorable seed and undervalues those that receive unfavorable seeds. Because Mid-Major teams receive more unfavorable seeds than favorable ones, by a nearly two-to-one ratio, the net results are to the detriment of the Mid-Major conferences. We show that the betting market appears to acknowledge the Selection Committee’s bias and makes adjustments.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

Borghesi, Richard. "Informed Traders and Balanced Books." Journal of Prediction Markets 9, no. 2 (October 13, 2015): 32–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v9i2.1036.

Full text

Abstract:

We explore sports gambler and bookmaker behavior by examining the pregame price movements of sports contracts listed on the Tradesports betting exchange. The vast majority of prior gambling studies that examine the price efficiency of bookmaker-style betting markets and the associated informational processing ability of bettors rely on the balanced book assumption. But, on Tradesports, bet prices are directly observable and therefore we are not required to assume that the point spreads set by bookmakers are a reliable proxy for the market’s dollar-weighted vote on contest outcome. We find that pregame NBA and NFL contract price movements are reliable predictors of future contract values. The magnitude of these movements is sufficient to remove the possibility of profit-taking by tipoff/kickoff. Results are consistent with the notion that in bookmaker-style NBA betting markets there exist informed traders and that lines are set at levels that balance wagers on either side of the bet. However, NFL bookmakers may allow (or perhaps encourage) imbalanced wagering in order to exploit relatively unskilled NFL bettors.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

Young, David A., and Robert L. Bettinger. "The Numic Spread: A Computer Simulation." American Antiquity 57, no. 1 (January 1992): 85–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2694836.

Full text

Abstract:

We develop a mathematical model for the spread of Numic-speaking peoples across the Great Basin in the second millennium A.D., in accord with the ideas of Bettinger and Baumhoff (1982), who suggested a competitive interaction between the Numic and Prenumic peoples of the region. We construct differential equations representing two competing populations that spread by a diffusion process across an area representing the Great Basin. The demographic variables are fixed to agree with ethnographic data, while the migration rates are fitted to the estimated time for the completion of the spread. The model predicts a spatial distribution of the Numic languages in satisfactory agreement with observations and suggests new avenues of investigation.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

Ettabonia, Santhosh Kumar, Komalatha Nakkala, and Nayana Chathalingath. "An Investigation on Omicron Variant Corona Virus and its Impact." Pharmaceutical Sciences and Resarch 1, no. 1 (April 1, 2022): 12–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.46632/psr/1/1/3.

Full text

Abstract:

Acid substitutes to examine whether the risk over time, Origin of beta, delta and omicron variants In spike protein, there are 15 receptor-binding domains, and syndrome corona virus 2 OMCR variant in travellers who are fully vaccinated in an isolated hotel in Hong Kong after the third vaccine dose is neutralized. SARS-CoV-2 pseudo viruses were first diagnosed with severe acute respiratory syndrome characterized by the presence of an omicron variant of the corona virus 2 that dominates SARS, with the presence of a synthetic protein in Background of omicron or abstract. ORS- variant precedes variant. Spike confirmation plays an important role in SARS. A third vaccine dose was first reported to neutralize omicron from 20 participants who received two serum samples. The summary of vaccine levels and 20 recipients of the trio, the recently announced Omicron variant, included 34 Spike protein mutations associated with corona virus-2 monoclonal acute respiratory syndrome antibody, and the antiviral activity against Omicron evaluated the test activity of seven monoclonal. Antibodies to Covit-19 and three antiviral drugs have led to fewer hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa, with the Omicron Corona virus being seen as a major threat to global public health during a wave of challenges in predicting the severity of 2019. Recently, variant has been reported in the South and Due to many mutations in spike protein, Dangerous SARS-CoV-2 of Omicron Variation raises serious concerns because it can significantly control the antibody. Aromatic mono deodorants are significantly extended by the Inter molecular Williamson set. Kinetic data two doses of the MRNA vaccine are now highly effective against SARS-CoV-2. We then tested the antibody against Omicron SARS-CoV-2 doses, of the highly contagious omicron variant of the acute respiratory disease corona virus Origin is about antibody. Origin of Omicron variant of SARSCoV-2 is an urgent global health concern, and in this study our statistical modelling suggests that the Omicron variant is spreading much faster than the world-designated Omicron variant of the Covid-19 type. Anxiety. On November 26, the health system triggered travel restrictions, betting to speed up the booster, until the end of November 2021, when the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 exploded following a Christmas party attended by, Norway. We observed a 74% attack rate and the acute respiratory syndrome in South Africa are characterized by three distinct waves of corona virus 2 SARS-CoV-2 infections. The first abbreviation relates to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA compound. Variation 1 Appeared in late 2021 and is characterized by multiple spike mutations in all spike domains. The prevalence of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant underscores the importance of analyzing cross-protection from previous Omicron infections. Concerns about the origin of the variant and its gradually increasing spread there is global public health among humans. Neutralization of Omicron BA. Variations Although two doses of the vaccine build up immunity, it decreases over time, and administration of a booster dose rapidly spreads to people who have been vaccinated against the acute respiratory syndrome corona virus-2 Omicron variant, raising concerns about the number of Omicron SARS. Anxiety that plays a major role in alleviating acute illness and mortality from COVID-19 over the past 12 months. Methods Net care is a private healthcare group with 49 intensive care units across South Africa.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Journal articles on the topic 'Spread betting'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles