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Journal articles on the topic 'SSP scenarios'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 5 June 2025

Last updated: 2 August 2025

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1

Li, Mengya, Bingbing Zhou, Minyi Gao, et al. "FPOPv1: Global 1km gridded population projections for 2020-2100 under SSP scenarios." Spatiotemporal dynamics of global population and heat exposure (2020–2100): based on improved SSP-consistent population projections 17, no. 9 (2022): 094007. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10716877.

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The gridded global 1-km resolution population projections (Future Population, FPOP) under the SSP scenario from 2020 to 2100.  This data set incorporates fine built-up land use changes under the SSP scenario to describe the impact of built-up land use changes on population spatial changes. Machine Learning is used to conduct future population spatial projections consistent with SSP scenarios, and produce global long-term series, full coverage, high-resolution, and high-precision gridded future population data under five SSP scenarios.  Global future gridded population data with fine

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Han, Yixuan. "Predict the frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong in the future using CanESM5 Model." Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology 25 (December 13, 2022): 104–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/hset.v25i.3426.

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In this research, we used the data of daily minimum temperatures from ensemble r1i1p1f1 of CanESM5 model under the five SSP scenarios, namely SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0, SSP 4-3.4, SSP 4-6.0 and SSP 5-8.5, to calculate the frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong from 1900 to 2100, in order to make an accurate forecast of the pattern of occurrences of cold waves in Guangdong for the foreseeable future and compare it with the situations in the past. The frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong generally stayed stable at 4 from 1900 to 2014, though a slightly decline trend still can be witnessed. The freq

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3

Xu, Zixiang, Jiaqing Cheng, Haishun Xu, and Jining Li. "A Multi-Objective Optimization Framework for Coupled Grey–Green Infrastructure of Areas with Contamination-Induced Water Shortages Under Future Multi-Dimensional Scenarios." Land 13, no. 11 (2024): 1932. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land13111932.

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Stormwater resource utilization is an important function of coupled grey–green infrastructure (CGGI) that has received little research focus, especially in multi-objective optimization studies. Given the complex water problems in areas with contamination-induced water shortages, it is important to incorporate more objectives into optimization systems. Therefore, this study integrated economic performance, hydrological recovery, water quality protection, and stormwater resource utilization into an optimization framework based on the non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm III (NSGA-III). A spong

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An, Songhee, Guetae Park, Hanna Jung, and Dongwoo Jang. "Assessment of Future Drought Index Using SSP Scenario in Rep. of Korea." Sustainability 14, no. 7 (2022): 4252. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14074252.

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Drought is a meteorological disaster that has serious economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, for drought assessment, it is important to not only analyze the current state of drought using observed data but also future droughts by considering climate change. Although shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been developed, studies regarding their application in drought analysis in Korea are insufficient. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for future droughts in Korea were calculated and analyzed using climate data based on S

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Wu, Chunhung. "Assessment of Possible Landslide Susceptibility Under Climate Change: A Case in the Chishan River Watershed in Southwestern Taiwan." Water 16, no. 23 (2024): 3420. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16233420.

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This study investigated the future spatiotemporal distribution of landslide susceptibility in the Chishan river watershed (CRW) in southwestern Taiwan under four future climate change scenarios. On the basis of 10 landslide-related factors, landslide susceptibility models were constructed using the frequency ratio method and logistic regression method, and the model with better performance was selected for subsequent analysis. This study estimated past (2000–2023) and future (2024–2100) daily CRW rainfall values with return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. Daily rainfall is expect

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Kong, Yuan, Chao Feng, and Liyang Guo. "Peaking Global and G20 Countries’ CO2 Emissions under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 17 (2022): 11076. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191711076.

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Mitigating climate change requires long-term global efforts. The aim of this study is to simulate the possible paths of CO2 emissions in G20 countries and the world from 2020 to 2050, by using the STIRPAT model and SSP scenarios with different constraints (SSP baseline, SSP-3.4). The results show that: (1) the world’s CO2 emissions cannot peak in the SSP baseline scenarios, but can peak in the SSP-3.4 scenarios through four paths other than the high fossil energy consumption path; (2) for G20 countries, in the SSP baseline scenarios, 13 countries such as China, the United States, and the Unite

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Vafeidis, Athanasios Thomas, Lena Reimann, Gerald Jan Ellen, et al. "Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies." Sustainability 16, no. 6 (2024): 2578. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16062578.

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Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the exist

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Yoon, Eui-Hyeok, Jang-Hyun Sung, Byung-Sik Kim, Kee-Won Seong, Jung-Ryel Choi, and Young-Ho Seo. "Changes in the Urban Hydrological Cycle of the Future Using Low-Impact Development Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios." Water 15, no. 22 (2023): 4002. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15224002.

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Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have been used for various studies in the field of climate change. In this regard, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario has been newly introduced to examine climate change impacts, but relevant research is still insufficient. For this reason, new SSP scenarios with a combination of Low-Impact Development (LID) techniques are applied to predict rainfall-runoff efficiency and hydrological variation. The inter-model variability in the monthly average precipitation for each GCM according to new SSP scenarios under future climate was i

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Dione, Philippe Malick, Cheikh Faye, and Cheikh Abdoul Aziz Sy Sadio. "Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change (Rainfall and Temperature) and Characterization of Future Drought in the Aga Foua Djilas Watershed." Indonesian Journal of Social and Environmental Issues (IJSEI) 4, no. 3 (2023): 353–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.47540/ijsei.v4i3.1218.

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Studying climate change's impact on runoff and drought is crucial for sustainable society and ecosystems. The extent of drought evolution and how droughts would affect society and the environment are not sufficiently considered in Senegal. This study assesses hydrological impacts and future drought using three global climate models (ACCESS-ESM1-5, BCC-CSM2-MR, and MRI-ESM2-0) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in the Aga-Foua-Djilas Basin. To this end, the hydrological impacts of climate change over 20-year periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100) at a res

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Akbar, Haseeb, Pariyapat Nilsalab, Thapat Silalertruksa, and Shabbir H. Gheewala. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Hydropower Potential in the Kunhar River Watershed, Pakistan." World 4, no. 4 (2023): 776–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/world4040049.

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Climate change plays a vital role in the hydrology of any river basin, which may have multidimensional consequences. There is a need to conduct climate change impact assessment studies with updated models and scenarios. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the streamflow and hydropower in Pakistan’s Kunhar River basin. Three general circulation models (GCMs), under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs 2–45 and 5–85), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, and the flow duration curve were used to project the change in climatic parameters, streamflow, and hydropowe

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Sanxay Boutsamaly, Chankhachone Sonemanivong, Soulyphan Kannitha, et al. "Spatial analysis of flash flood and Drought impact from Climate Change in Phongsaly District, Phogsaly Province, by using Geo-Informatics Technology and Modelling." Global Sustainability Research 2, no. 3 (2023): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.56556/gssr.v2i3.515.

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A method for predicting the water resource in the region in the future to be used as a basis for mitigating the consequences is to study how climate change affects hydrology. The purpose of this study is to i). choose a global climate model that is suitable for the area, ii). rainfall run-off modelling, iii). drought and flood hazard index map. The SSP-126, SSP-245, and SSP-585 scenarios were chosen as the most appropriate global climate model among the four institutes, with efficiency criteria using the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta and then calibrate the data with the Bias Co

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Gütschow, Johannes, M. Louise Jeffery, Annika Günther, and Malte Meinshausen. "Country-resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios." Earth System Science Data 13, no. 3 (2021): 1005–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1005-2021.

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Abstract. Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emission targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase their target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual scenarios are meant to present future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of climate policy. These so-called baselines presented by countries are often of limited use, as they can be exaggerated and as the methodology used to derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created by independent modeling groups using i

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13

Zhao, Zefang, Shigang Chao, Zebin Zhao, and Meixiu Jing. "Climate Change Threatens the Habitat of Pinus massoniana in China." Forests 15, no. 2 (2024): 323. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f15020323.

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Pinus massoniana Lamb. is one of the main timber tree species. There is a large artificial planting area in South China, and this tree has important economic and ecological value. In this research, we built a comprehensive habitat suitability model based on 115 current data and 22 environmental variables to analyze the potential suitable habitat distribution of this species. Future climate change scenarios were defined as four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP 1–2.6, SSP 2–4.5, SSP 3–7.0, SSP 5–8.5) and four periods (including 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) based on ni

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Yang, Shuhui, and Xuefeng Cui. "Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework." Sustainability 11, no. 20 (2019): 5712. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11205712.

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Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do

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15

Bai, Tianqi, Like Fan, Genxin Song, et al. "Effects of Land Use/Cover and Meteorological Changes on Regional Climate under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios: A Case Study in Zhengzhou, China." Remote Sensing 15, no. 10 (2023): 2601. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15102601.

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To better understand the possible role of projected land use and cover change (LUCC) in future regional climate projections, we explored the regional climate change response from land use/cover change under different climate scenarios. To do so, we propose a research framework based on different SSP-RCPs to simulate and explore the impacts of future land use/cover changes on the future climate of Zhengzhou City, China, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with land use/cover and meteorological data under different SSP-RCP scenarios based on CMIP6. Two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and

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16

Ferreira, Wanderley Philippe Cardoso, Henderson Silva Wanderley, and Rafael Coll Delgado. "Changes in the Distribution of Precipitation with the Potential to Cause Extreme Events in the State of Rio de Janeiro for a Future Climate Change Scenario." Atmosphere 16, no. 4 (2025): 358. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16040358.

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Climate change can alter the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events (EPEs), both in terms of scarcity and excess, impacting society as a whole. The aim of this study was, therefore, to identify changes in the distribution of precipitation with the potential to cause extreme events in the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ) for current and future climate change scenarios. Climate change indices were selected that refer to changes in the distribution and magnitude of rainfall events for the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis was carried out for the historical period between 2000 an

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Sha, Jian, Xue Li, and Jingjing Yang. "Estimation of Watershed Hydrochemical Responses to Future Climate Changes Based on CMIP6 Scenarios in the Tianhe River (China)." Sustainability 13, no. 18 (2021): 10102. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su131810102.

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The impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes were assessed based on the newest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the Tianhe River in the middle area of China. The monthly spatial downscaled outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, and a new Python procedure was developed to batch pick up site-scale climate change information. A combined modeling approach was proposed to estimate the responses of the streamflow and Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) fluxes to four climate change scen

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18

Rashid, Haroon, Kaijie Yang, Aicong Zeng, et al. "Predicting the Hydrological Impacts of Future Climate Change in a Humid-Subtropical Watershed." Atmosphere 13, no. 1 (2021): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010012.

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Future climate change is expected to impact the natural systems. This study used future climate data of general circulation models (GCMs) to investigate the impacts of climate change during the future period (2062–2095) relative to the historical period (1981–2014) on the hydrological system of the Minjiang river watershed, China. A previously calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the future hydrology under the impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2, 3, and 5) of th

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Min, Jingjing, Yan Dong, and Hua Wang. "Response of Natural Gas Consumption to Temperature and Projection under SSP Scenarios during Winter in Beijing." Atmosphere 13, no. 8 (2022): 1178. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081178.

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The present study investigates the response of natural gas consumption to temperature on the basis of observations during heating season (middle November–middle March) for the period 2002–2021 in Beijing, China, and then estimates temperature-related changes in the gas consumption under future scenarios by using climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Observational evidence suggests that the daily natural gas consumption normalized by gross domestic product is linearly correlated with the daily average temperature during heating season in the past two

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Martínez-Sifuentes, Aldo Rafael, Ramón Trucíos-Caciano, Víctor Manuel Rodríguez-Moreno, José Villanueva-Díaz, and Juan Estrada-Ávalos. "The Impact of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration and Flow in a Major Basin in Northern Mexico." Sustainability 15, no. 1 (2023): 847. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15010847.

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Climate defines the hydrological cycle of each region and climate change will undoubtedly affect the recharge processes of the world’s water tables and the water resources currently available at the basin and microbasin scale. The objective of the present paper is to evaluate future changes in evapotranspiration and flows from the Sardinas River basin in North Durango, Mexico. The Rural Genius Model (GR2M) is an aggregated monthly hydrological model, which is used to reconstruct flows from precipitation and evapotranspiration by applying two functions: a production function and a transfer func

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Shim, Sungbo, Jisun Kim, Hyun Min Sung, et al. "Future Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia under SSP Scenarios." Journal of Climate Change Research 12, no. 2 (2021): 143–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.15531/ksccr.2021.04.12.2.143.

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Shim, Sungbo, Jisun Kim, Hyun Min Sung, et al. "Future Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia under SSP Scenarios." Journal of Climate Change Research 12, no. 2 (2021): 143–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.15531/ksccr.2021.12.2.143.

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Wu, Yujin, Pei Leng, and Chao Ren. "Assessing Net Irrigation Needs in Maize–Wheat Rotation Farmlands on the North China Plain: Implications for Future Climate Scenarios." Agronomy 14, no. 6 (2024): 1144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14061144.

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Assessment of agricultural water requirements under future climate projections has received increasing attention in recent decades. The agriculture pattern of the semi-arid North China Plain is a maize–wheat rotation system in which sufficient irrigation is required to maintain production. In this study, the effects of future climate scenarios on the net irrigation requirement of the maize–wheat rotation system were assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization crop growth model—AquaCrop. First, the baseline net irrigation requirement over the study region was obtained through AquaCrop

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MUKHERJEE, AISHI, SAON BANERJEE, SARATHI SAHA, RAJIB NATH, MANISH KUMAR NASKAR, and ASIS MUKHERJEE. "Developing weather-based biomass prediction equation to assess the field pea yield under future climatic scenario." Journal of Agrometeorology 26, no. 1 (2024): 45–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.54386/jam.v26i1.2461.

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The present research focuses on the variation of field pea production under different prevailing weather parameters, aiming to develop a reliable forecasting model. For that a field experiment was conducted in New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal during 2018-19 and 2019-20 with three different varieties (VL42, Indrira Matar, Rachana) of this region. Biomass predicting equation based on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation was developed to estimate field pea yield for 2040-2099 period under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios. It reveals that solar radiation positively influen

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Li, Zhenjie, Hui Tao, Heike Hartmann, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, and Tong Jiang. "Variation of Projected Atmospheric Water Vapor in Central Asia Using Multi-Models from CMIP6." Atmosphere 11, no. 9 (2020): 909. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090909.

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Using data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive Version 2 (IGRA2) and the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of four global climate models (GCMs), named CanESM5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0, within the framework of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in atmospheric total column water vapor (TCWV) over Central Asia in the future (2021–2100) under SSP-RCPs scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5, relative to baseline period (1986–2005). Results showed that the annual mean TCWV from IGRA2 was c

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Syahmi, Wan Amirul, and Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat. "Comparative assessment on climate prediction from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models over Hulu Terengganu, Malaysia." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1140, no. 1 (2023): 012006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1140/1/012006.

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Abstract The uncertainties of climate change in the future year cause the contribution factors and greenhouse gasses (GHGs) effects on the local climates need to be revised. The development of new climate scenarios in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is consistent with the technological exploration and increment of GHGs dispersion compared to the consideration factors in CMIP5. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of CMIP5 (based on Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and CMIP6 (based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) in simulating season

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Shen, Qikun, Peng Zhang, Wenming Yu, et al. "Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of Decapterus macarellus in the South China Sea." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 13, no. 1 (2025): 156. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13010156.

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This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (Decapterus macarellus) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Proje

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Kii, Masanobu, Kunihiko Matsumoto, and Satoru Sugita. "Future Scenarios of Urban Nighttime Lights: A Method for Global Cities and Its Application to Urban Expansion and Carbon Emission Estimation." Remote Sensing 16, no. 6 (2024): 1018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs16061018.

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As of 2018, approximately 55% of the world’s population resides in cities, and it is projected that this proportion will reach 68% by 2050. Population growth in urban areas leads to various impacts on society and the environment. In this study, we have developed a method for generating future scenarios of nighttime lights. What makes this method unique is its ability to (1) generate future gridded nighttime light intensity scenarios for cities, (2) generate future scenarios that preserve the distribution pattern of nighttime light intensity, and (3) generate scenarios that reflect urban polici

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Tong, Dan, Jing Cheng, Yang Liu, et al. "Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 9 (2020): 5729–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5729-2020.

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Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combining shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connect

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Sadio, Cheikh Abdoul Aziz Sy, and Cheikh Faye. "Evaluation of extreme flow characteristics in the Casamance watershed upstream of Kolda using the IHA/RVA method." International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Research 12, no. 2 (2023): 31–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.18488/13.v12i2.3584.

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Understanding water availability is essential for the development and management of water resources, as well as for designing interventions for river health. Climate change/variability impacts the hydrology of a river system, which subsequently affects human and ecological health by altering the structure and function of the aquatic ecosystem. This study therefore aims to assess water availability and river health according to current and future climate scenarios in the Casamance watershed upstream of Kolda. Climate change is expected to increase hydrologic alterations from low (currently) to

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Wang, Rongyao, Junsan Zhao, Yilin Lin, Guoping Chen, Qing Cao, and Yixiang Feng. "Land Change Simulation and Forest Carbon Storage of Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, China Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios." Forests 13, no. 12 (2022): 2030. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13122030.

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Land use change is closely related to the terrestrial ecosystem. Studying the relationship between land use and ecosystem service carbon storage under future climate change can optimize the regional ecosystem service function and formulate sustainable social and economic development policies, which is of great significance for regional carbon emission management and climate change response. In this paper, the coupled model of SSP-RCP-PLUS-InVEST was constructed to simulate land use change under different scenarios, analyze the influence degree of driving factors on different regions, and explo

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Jing, Kaiting, Ming Li, Haoxiang Zhao, et al. "Estimating the Global Geographical Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Crop Pest Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios." Insects 14, no. 5 (2023): 425. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14050425.

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Invasive crop pests (ICPs) are a major cause of crop losses and adversely affect global food security. Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov is a significant ICP that feeds on the sap of crops, reducing crop yield and quality. Although estimating the geographical distribution patterns of D. noxia under climate change is critical for its management and global food security, such information remains unclear. Based on 533 global occurrence records and 9 bioclimatic variables, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential global geographical distribution of D. noxia. The results showed that Bio1

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Hadi, Saad H., Husam H. Alwan, and Fadhil M. Al-Mohammed. "Analysis of Climate Change Scenarios Using the LARS-WG 8 Model Based on Precipitation and Temperature Trends." Civil Engineering Journal 10, no. 12 (2024): 4019–42. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2024-010-12-014.

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Global food production and water distribution are at risk due to increasing temperatures and changing precipitation trends. The main objective of the study was to analyze the climate trend and future projections in seven stations in southern Iraq. The period (1981–2020) was designated as a base period. The periods (2021-2040) and (2041-2060) were defined as the future two periods. The Mann-Kendall trend test was employed to assess trends utilizing XLSTAT. The study employed the most recent version of the LARS-WG 8 model to forecast climate change by using three GCMs (ACCES-ESM1-5, HadGEM3-GC31

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Yesubabu, Vinnakota, Anu Varughese, and Aravind P. "Application of the CMIP6 Approach for Determination of Climate Change Impact on Inflow to Malampuzha Reservoir, India." International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14, no. 12 (2024): 314–24. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i124627.

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Optimal operation of a reservoir is important for the efficient planning and management of water resources. Inflow estimation into the reservoir is the basic information needed by a policy maker for the optimal planning of the reservoir operation. Climate change has become a major cause for the changes in the hydrological phenomena. An attempt was made to analyse the impact of climate change on Malampuzha reservoir inflow for the future using recent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Two SSP scenarios, SSP 245 and SSP 585 were considered for the evaluation of changes in the meteoro

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Yan, Chengcai, Haiting Hao, Shuaishuai Sha, et al. "Comparative Assessment of Habitat Suitability and Niche Overlap of Three Cytospora Species in China." Journal of Fungi 10, no. 1 (2024): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jof10010038.

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The plant pathogenic fungus Cytospora is notoriously known for causing woody plant canker diseases, resulting in substantial economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees worldwide. Despite their strong negative ecological impact, the existing and prospective distribution patterns of these plant pathogens in China, according to climate change, have received little attention. In this study, we chose three widely dispersed and seriously damaging species, namely, Cytospora chrysosperma, Cytospora mali, and Cytospora nivea, which are the most common species that damage the Juglans regia, M

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Valencia, Jhon B., Vladimir V. Guryanov, Jeison Mesa-Diez, Nilton Diaz, Daniel Escobar-Carbonari, and Artyom V. Gusarov. "Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application." Hydrology 11, no. 2 (2024): 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025.

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This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scena

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Yuan, Hao-Bin. "Development of student simulated patient training and evaluation indicators in a high-fidelity nursing simulation: a Delphi consensus study†." Frontiers of Nursing 8, no. 1 (2021): 23–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/fon-2021-0003.

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Abstract Objective This study is aimed to develop student simulated patient (SSP) training content and evaluation indicators, and further explores their validity and reliabilities. Methods Delphi consultations with 20 nursing experts were conducted. The weights of indicators were calculated through the analytic hierarchy process. SSP training was conducted with a high-fidelity nursing simulation. Results The expert positive coefficients were 0.952 in the first round consultation and 1.00 in the second round consultation. The expert authority coefficient was reported as 0.87. The training inclu

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Lin, Ting, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu. "Development of Polar Lows in Future Climate Scenarios over the Barents Sea." Journal of Climate 37, no. 16 (2024): 4239–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0027.1.

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Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and

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Qi, Yinglian, Xiaoyan Pu, Yaxiong Li, et al. "Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)." Sustainability 14, no. 19 (2022): 12114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su141912114.

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The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is one of the regions most strongly affected by climate change. The climate feedback of the distribution of plateau pika, a key species, is closely related to the trophic structure of the plateau ecosystem and the development of agriculture and animal husbandry on the plateau. In order to understand the impact of future climate change on the suitable distribution area of plateau pika, potential suitable distribution areas of Plateau pika were predicted using the MaxEnt model under three climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, and SSP 5-8.5) in the near term (2021–204

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Fan, Haoran, Qi Si, Wenming Dong, Gang Lu, and Xinping Liu. "Land Use Change and Landscape Ecological Risk Prediction in Urumqi under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) Scenarios." Sustainability 15, no. 19 (2023): 14214. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151914214.

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Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape ecological risk change in the context of future climate warming can help adjust socio-economic development policies, optimize regional ecological security patterns, and promote green and low-carbon development on the one hand and provide important supplements and improvements for research in related fields on the other. Taking Urumqi as the study area, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-modal ensemble data, we used the coupled system dynamics (SD) model and patch-generation land use simulation (PLUS)

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Salazar-Borunda, Manuel A., Martín E. Pereda-Solís, Pablito M. López-Serrano, Jorge A. Chávez-Simental, José H. Martínez-Guerrero, and Luis A. Tarango-Arámbula. "Climate change will affect the distribution of the Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalislucida Nelson 1903)." Revista Chapingo Serie Ciencias Forestales y del Ambiente 28, no. 2 (2022): 305–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2021.10.066.

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Introduction: The Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida Nelson 1903) is a subspecies threatened by habitat destruction and sensitive to climate change. It is distributed in the old forests of the United States and Mexico. Objective: To determine the potential historical (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060 y 2061-2080) distribution of the Mexican spotted owl under two climate change scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585). Materials and methods: Potential distribution was modeled using the R software with the MaxEnt algorithm, 155 geographically uncorrelated occurrence records, and fi

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Peng, Lu, and Zhihui Li. "Ensemble Flood Risk Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under CMIP6 SSP-RCP Scenarios." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (2021): 12097. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132112097.

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The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important part of China’s “two screens and three belts” strategic ecological security barrier, and the urban agglomeration along the YREB is the core of its economic development. However, it has suffered the most from frequent and severe flood disasters that were affected by torrential rains, urbanization, and human activities, with climate change intensifying the potential occurrence of flood disasters in this area. Based on the CMIP6 climate data, this study constructed a flood risk assessment index system and assessed the temporal and spatial cha

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Chou, Jieming, Yidan Hao, Yuan Xu, Weixing Zhao, Yuanmeng Li, and Haofeng Jin. "Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios." Sustainability 15, no. 9 (2023): 7275. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15097275.

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The estimation of forest carbon sequestration and its economic value as a carbon sink are important elements of global carbon cycle research. In this study, based on the predicted forestland changes under the future shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5, the growth equations of different tree species were fitted using forest inventory data, and the biomass conversion factor continuum function method was used to estimate forest vegetation carbon fixation at the national scale. The carbon sink potential of the forest ecosystems in 2020–2100 was estimated under t

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Guo, Wenhui, Ranghui Wang, and Fanhui Meng. "Simulation and Forecast of Coastal Ecosystem Services in Jiaodong Peninsula Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios." Remote Sensing 16, no. 19 (2024): 3614. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs16193614.

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This study simulated the spatiotemporal changes in coastal ecosystem services (ESs) in the Jiaodong Peninsula from 2000 to 2050 and analyzed the driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities with respect to ESs, aiming to provide policy recommendations that promote regional sustainable development. Future climate change and land use were forecast based on scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to assess ESs such as water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil reten

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Gao, Fengjie, Xiaohui Xin, Jianxiang Song, et al. "Simulation of LUCC Dynamics and Estimation of Carbon Stock under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios in Heilongjiang Province." Land 12, no. 9 (2023): 1665. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land12091665.

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An accurate estimation of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystem and their future changes in relation to land use and land cover change (LUCC) is important for regional territorial spatial optimization and low-carbon development. In this paper, we integrated the System Dynamics (SD) model, PLUS model and InVEST model to simulate land use dynamics and corresponding carbon stocks in Heilongjiang Province from 2030 to 2050 under three SSP-RCP scenarios proposed by the CMIP6. The findings revealed significant variations in land use demand projections across different SSP-RCP scenarios, with increa

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Jing, Jing, Feili Wei, Hong Jiang, et al. "Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Lijiang River Basin Based on InVEST-PLUS Model and SSP-RCP Scenario." Land 14, no. 3 (2025): 460. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14030460.

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Global climate change and changes in land use structures during rapid urbanization have profoundly impacted ecosystem carbon storage. Previous studies have not combined different climate scenarios and land use patterns to predict carbon storage. Using scenarios from both the InVEST-PLUS model and SSP-RCP, combined with multi-source remote sensing data, this study takes the Lijiang River Basin as the study area to explore the dynamic changes in land use and carbon storage under different climate scenarios. The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, cultivated and construction land incr

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Yuan, Chengjun, Yingfang Weng, Kangning Xiong, and Li Rong. "Projections of Land Use Change and Water Supply–Demand Assessment Based on Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China." Land 13, no. 2 (2024): 194. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land13020194.

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Land use change and water supply–demand assessment are critical to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human wellbeing. In the context of complex climate change and socioeconomic development, there is an urgent need for systematic assessment and forecasting studies on how to combine physical, geographical, and socioeconomic factors to clarify patterns of change in the land use change and water supply–demand, as well as to respond appropriately to different climate and socioeconomic development scenarios in the future. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representati

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Forouli, Aikaterini, Alexandros Nikas, de Ven Dirk-Jan van, Jon Sampedro, and Haris Doukas. "A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals." Environmental Modelling & Software 131 (July 21, 2020): 104795. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104795.

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This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs—namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13)—calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for

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Kim, Sunghun, Ju-Young Shin, Gayoung Lee, Jiyeon Park, and Kyungmin Sung. "Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over South Korea Based on Observations and CMIP6 SSP Scenarios." Water 17, no. 11 (2025): 1702. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17111702.

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This research assesses four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) concerning precipitation quantiles across Korea, utilizing the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble comprising 23 General Circulation Models alongside observational data to project future changes. Precipitation quantiles, derived from regional frequency analysis conducted at 615 sites, are calculated as annual averages for the period from 2015 to 2024. Each SSP scenario is evaluated for its spatial distribution through the application of observational data and chi-square tests, with the resu

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Zhao, Yanxi, Dengpan Xiao, Huizi Bai, Jianzhao Tang, and Deli Liu. "Future Projection for Climate Suitability of Summer Maize in the North China Plain." Agriculture 12, no. 3 (2022): 348. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12030348.

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Climate change has and will continue to exert significant effects on social economy, natural environment, and human life. Research on the climatic suitability of crops is critical for mitigating and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change on crop production. In the study, we developed the climate suitability model of maize and investigated the climate suitability of summer maize during the base period (1981–2010) and two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) in the North China Plain (NCP) based on BCC-CSM2-MR model (BCC) from the Coupled Model Comparison Program

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