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Journal articles on the topic 'Standard exceedance probability'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2025

Last updated: 1 August 2025

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1

Gemmrich, J., and C. Garrett. "Dynamical and statistical explanations of observed occurrence rates of rogue waves." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 5 (2011): 1437–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1437-2011.

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Abstract. Extreme surface waves occur in the tail of the probability distribution. Their occurrence rate can be displayed effectively by plotting ln(–ln P), where P is the probability of the wave or crest height exceeding a particular value, against the logarithm of that value. A Weibull distribution of the exceedance probability, as proposed in a standard model, then becomes a straight line. Earlier North Sea data from an oil platform suggest a curved plot, with a higher occurrence rate of extreme wave and crest heights than predicted by the standard model. The curvature is not accounted for

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Rudra, Ramesh P., Trevor Dickinson, Jaskaran Dhiman, Shaukat Manzoor, Pradeep Goel, and Rituraj Shukla. "Exceedance Probability Model for Predicting the Frequency of Frost-Free Days." Journal of the ASABE 65, no. 6 (2022): 1249–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/ja.14853.

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HighlightsNumber of frost-free days (FFD) increased exponentially with an increase in winter daily minimum temperatures.Winter daily minimum temperatures increased at a rate of 2°C per 100 years for the investigated stations.Stations situated in southern Canada are more susceptible to increase in winter FFD.The developed simple model can be used to reliably forecast FFD and other temperature related variables.Abstract. Data collected between 1940 and 2009 from 11 weather stations across central Canada were used to explore temporal changes in mean winter daily minimum temperatures (WDMT) and th

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3

Cigizoglu, Hikmet Kerem. "A Method Based on Taking the Average of Probabilities to Compute the Flow Duration Curve." Hydrology Research 31, no. 3 (2000): 187–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2000.0012.

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In this study a method based on taking the average of the probabilities is presented to obtain flow duration curve. In this method the exceedance probability for each flow value is computed repeatedly for all time periods within a year. The final representing exceedance is just simply the average of all these probabilities. The applicability of the method to daily mean flows is tested assuming various marginal probability distributions like normal, Pearson type III, log-Pearson type III, 2-parameter lognormal and 3-parameter lognormal distributions. It is seen that the observed flow duration c

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Аптикаев, Ф. Ф. "An exceedance probability of the influence in the Building Code." Геология и геофизика Юга России, no. 3 (September 27, 2021): 55–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.46698/vnc.2021.11.83.005.

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Во всем мире на картах сейсмической опасности приводятся наиболее вероятные значения сейсмических воздействий. В соответствии с допустимым риском эти значения могут быть увеличены. Например, в международных нормах для расчета сейсмостойкости радиационно-опасных объектов наиболее вероятные значения ускорений увеличиваются на величину стандартного отклонения. В отечественных строительных нормах предполагается использование наиболее вероятных значений. Считается, что вследствие различных факторов расчеты воздействий сопровождаются некоторыми погрешностями, вследствие чего оценки воздействий могут

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Tablazon, J., C. V. Caro, A. M. F. Lagmay, et al. "Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 3 (2015): 557–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-557-2015.

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Abstract. A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project N

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Konovalov, A. V., and Yu V. Gensiorovskiy. "SLOPE STABILITY ASSESSMENT BASED ON STOCHASTIC NATURE OF SITE-SPECIFIC GROUND SHAKING LEVEL AND UNCERTAINTY OF CRITICAL ACCELERATION." Tikhookeanskaya Geologiya 43, no. 5 (2024): 135–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.30911/0207-4028-2024-43-5-135-146.

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Assessing a possibility of landslide occurrence induced by intensive seismic loading is an important task of engineering geology. In this paper we suggest a method of standardizing internal slope deformations based on a stochastic approach. The cumulative Newmark displacement is taken as a standard error expressed as an empirical ratio of accumulated displacement to seismic impact and critical acceleration defined by the slope material parameters. The proposed method takes into account the uncertainties associated with possible earthquake epicenter locations in the next 50 years in the vicinit

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Zhou, Qingyun, Suge He, and Zhenyu Zou. "A classification scheme of active faults in engineering." PLOS ONE 20, no. 2 (2025): e0318504. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0318504.

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Fault displacement hazard, along with ground shaking hazard and earthquake-induced geohazard, are the primary forms of disaster in major earthquakes. Buildings located on areas of strong seismic surface displacement are likely to be damaged if anti-displacement design is not carried out. Therefore, a reasonable and targeted active fault classification scheme is helpful for avoidance and anti-displacement hazard of active fault in engineering construction. However, the existing classification schemes are rough, and some have no quantitative classification basis, which makes it difficult to appl

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Naess, A., O. Gaidai, and O. Karpa. "Estimation of Extreme Values by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method." Journal of Probability and Statistics 2013 (2013): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/797014.

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This paper details a method for extreme value prediction on the basis of a sampled time series. The method is specifically designed to account for statistical dependence between the sampled data points in a precise manner. In fact, if properly used, the new method will provide statistical estimates of the exact extreme value distribution provided by the data in most cases of practical interest. It avoids the problem of having to decluster the data to ensure independence, which is a requisite component in the application of, for example, the standard peaks-over-threshold method. The proposed me

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MENON, S. VIVEK, and BANJUL BHATTACHARYYA. "Estimation of minimum assured rainfall using probability of exceedance: A suitable approach for planning rainfed rice." Journal of Agrometeorology 27, no. 2 (2025): 184–89. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v27i2.2977.

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Rainfall is one of the most important components of agricultural productivity as it forms the basis of rural livelihoods and food security. In rainfed agricultural regions, where irrigation infrastructure is limited, the rainfall variability directly influences planting schedules, crop growth stages, and yield outcomes. The study presents a systematic approach for estimating minimum assured rainfall using the probability of exceedance (P) by analyzing 50 years (1973–2022) of weekly rainfall data from three Agro-climatic zones of West Bengal: Undulating Red and Laterite Zone, Gangetic Alluvial

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Ciupak, Maurycy, Bogdan Ozga-Zieliński, Tamara Tokarczyk, and Jan Adamowski. "A Probabilistic Model for Maximum Rainfall Frequency Analysis." Water 13, no. 19 (2021): 2688. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13192688.

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As determining the probability of the exceedance of maximum precipitation over a specified duration is critical to hydrotechnical design, particularly in the context of climate change, a model was developed to perform a frequency analysis of maximum precipitation of a specified duration. The PMAXΤP model (Precipitation MAXimum Time (duration) Probability) harbors a pair of computational modules fulfilling different roles: (i) statistical analysis of precipitation series, and (ii) estimation of maximum precipitation for a specified duration and its probability of exceedance. The input data cons

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Proskuryakov, K., O. Shagniev, and A. Shkadova. "Engineering assessment of minimum fatigue life for given probability of its non-exceedance." Transactions of the Krylov State Research Centre 1, no. 395 (2021): 55–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.24937/2542-2324-2021-1-395-55-64.

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Object and purpose of research. This paper discusses structural materials under cyclic load. The purpose is to determine the minimum fatigue life corresponding to a certain non-exceedance probability of this value. Materials and methods. The study was performed on three structural materials: steel 15ХМ, steel 08Kh18N10Т and titanium alloy PТ-7М. Initial estimate of fatigue life distribution parameters relied on the data about guaranteed maximum and minimum values of temporary resistance and relative cross-section tapering. The assessment was performed as per a common curve “conditionally elast

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Wan, Wenhua, Xiaohui Lei, Jianshi Zhao, Mingna Wang, Soon-Thiam Khu, and Chao Wang. "A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation." Water 13, no. 4 (2021): 556. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13040556.

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The design and operation of reservoirs based on conventional flood-limited water levels (FLWL) implicitly adopts the assumption of hydrological stationarity. As such, historical-record-based FLWL may not be the best choice for flood-control operations due to the inherent non-stationarity of rainfall inputs. With maturing flood forecasts, this study focuses on establishing linkage between FLWL and skill of forecast, thus developing a “dynamic pre-storm level” approach for reservoir flood-control operations. The approach utilizes forecast flood magnitude, forecast skill and exceedance probabilit

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Ibrahim, Mohamad Najib. "Assessment of the Uncertainty Associated with Statistical Modeling of Precipitation Extremes for Hydrologic Engineering Applications in Amman, Jordan." Sustainability 14, no. 24 (2022): 17052. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142417052.

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Estimates of extreme precipitation are commonly associated with different sources of uncertainty. One of the primary sources of uncertainty in the statistical modeling of precipitation extremes comes from extreme data series (i.e., sampling uncertainty). Therefore, this research aimed to quantify the sampling uncertainty in terms of confidence intervals. In addition, this article examined how the data record length affects predicted extreme precipitation estimates and data set statistics. A nonparametric bootstrap resample was utilized to quantify the precipitation quantile sampling distributi

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Deidda, R. "A multiple threshold method for fitting the generalized Pareto distribution and a simple representation of the rainfall process." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 7, no. 4 (2010): 4957–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-7-4957-2010.

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Abstract. Previous studies indicate the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a suitable distribution function to reliably describe the exceedances of daily rainfall records above a proper optimum threshold, which should be selected as small as possible to retain the largest sample while assuring an acceptable fitting. Such an optimum threshold may differ from site to site, affecting consequently not only the GPD scale parameter, but also the probability of threshold exceedance. Thus a first objective of this paper is to derive some expressions to parameterize a simple threshold-invariant t

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Deidda, R. "A multiple threshold method for fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to rainfall time series." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 12 (2010): 2559–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2559-2010.

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Abstract. Previous studies indicate the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a suitable distribution function to reliably describe the exceedances of daily rainfall records above a proper optimum threshold, which should be selected as small as possible to retain the largest sample while assuring an acceptable fitting. Such an optimum threshold may differ from site to site, affecting consequently not only the GPD scale parameter, but also the probability of threshold exceedance. Thus a first objective of this paper is to derive some expressions to parameterize a simple threshold-invariant t

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16

Woo, G. "Natural Catastrophe Probable Maximum Loss." British Actuarial Journal 8, no. 5 (2002): 943–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1357321700004037.

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ABSTRACTThe procedure for estimating probable maximum loss (PML) for natural catastrophes has evolved over the past few decades from a rather simplistic deterministic basis to a more sophisticated methodology based on loss exceedance probability curves, generated using catastrophe modelling software. This development process is reviewed, with an emphasis on the earthquake peril, which, because of its widespread threat to critical industrial installations, has been at the forefront of most PML advances. The coherent risk definition of PML is advocated as an improvement over standard quantile me

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Yu, Tianyang, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu. "Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 3 (2024): 803–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024.

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Abstract. Using the peak ground acceleration (PGA) under four exceedance probabilities calculated via a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method for China, the probability density function of PGA was obtained by fitting with the Cornell seismic hazard exceedance probability PGA function model. Combined with the seismic fragility function of the water supply system calculated on the basis of the empirical matrix of actual earthquake damage and the exposure of fixed assets, the expected seismic loss and expected loss rate models of the water supply system were established, and the classifica

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18

Anbazhagan, Panjamani, Ketan Bajaj, Karanpreet Matharu, Sayed S. R. Moustafa, and Nassir S. N. Al-Arifi. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach – Patna district (India)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 10 (2019): 2097–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2097-2019.

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Abstract. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and study area (SA) distribution for the Patna district are presented considering both the classical and zoneless approaches through a logic tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude is calculated using three methods, namely the incremental method, Kijko method, and regional rupture characteristics approach. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are selected by carrying out an “efficacy test” using log likelihood.

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Maningding, Ruth Ann D., and Jan Nicholas S. Baldo. "Fragility Analysis of Pangasinan State University Urdaneta City Campus Buildings." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 20 (December 12, 2024): 789–809. https://doi.org/10.37394/232015.2024.20.75.

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The Philippines is a seismically susceptible region because of its unique geographical location within the Pacific Ring of Fire. Over the years, the Philippines has had several destructive earthquakes that have caused building collapses and numerous fatalities. Schools are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes because most were built using outdated building rules that do not comply with current seismic design criteria. The age of PSU buildings, which ranges from 10 to 40 years, may increase their vulnerability to seismic hazards. Buildings designed with the old codes might lack the necessary

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Dixit, J., D. M. Dewaikar, and R. S. Jangid. "Assessment of liquefaction potential index for Mumbai city." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 9 (2012): 2759–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2759-2012.

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Abstract. Mumbai city is the financial capital of India and is fifth most densely populated city in the world. Seismic soil liquefaction is evaluated for Mumbai city in terms of the factors of safety against liquefaction (FS) along the depths of soil profiles for different earthquakes with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr using standard penetration test (SPT)-based simplified empirical procedure. This liquefaction potential is evaluated at 142 representative sites in the city using the borehole records from standard penetration tests. Liquefaction potential index (LPI) is evaluated at eac

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Anderson, John G. "Quantifying the Epistemic Uncertainty in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard from Two Major Faults in Western Nevada." Earthquake Spectra 34, no. 2 (2018): 549–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/080717eqs156m.

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The probabilistic seismic hazards in the larger cities of western Nevada are dominated by the Mount Rose and Carson Range faults. These are normal faults; Reno and Carson City are on the hanging wall. This paper finds the sensitivity of the hazard posed by these faults to epistemic uncertainty of dip, slip rate, magnitude, and choice of ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for an earthquake that ruptures the length of each fault. SA(0.01 s) with exceedance probability of 2% in 50 years was determined for each branch of a logic tree for those properties. This paper uses tools of probability

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Beheshti-Aval, S. B., E. Khojastehfar, M. Noori, and M. R. Zolfaghari. "A comprehensive collapse fragility assessment of moment resisting steel frames considering various sources of uncertainties." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 43, no. 2 (2016): 118–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2013-0491.

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Different sources of uncertainties contribute to the collapse and safety assessment of structures. In this paper, impact of construction quality (CQ) is considered in developing analytical collapse fragility curves for moment resisting steel frames. Furthermore, the interaction of this source of uncertainty with epistemic uncertainty inherent in modeling parameters, due to lack of knowledge and inaccuracy of predictor equations, is investigated. Beam strength, column strength, beam ductility, and column ductility meta-variables are defined as modeling parameters which are being suffered by inf

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Semenov, Serhii, Wojciech Baran, Magdalena Andrzejewska, et al. "Mathematical Model of Data Processing in a Personalized Search Recommendation System for Digital Collections." Applied Sciences 15, no. 13 (2025): 7583. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15137583.

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This paper presents a probabilistic-temporal modeling approach for analyzing data processing stages in a personalized recommendation system for digital heritage collections. The methodology is based on (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) GERT network formalism, which enables the representation of complex probabilistic workflows with feedbacks and alternative branches. For each processing stage, corresponding GERT-schemes were developed, and equivalent transfer functions were derived. Using Laplace transform inversion techniques, probability density functions of processing time were rec

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Anghel, Cristian Gabriel, and Cornel Ilinca. "Evaluation of Various Generalized Pareto Probability Distributions for Flood Frequency Analysis." Water 15, no. 8 (2023): 1557. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15081557.

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This article analyzes six probability distributions from the Generalized Pareto family, with three, four and five parameters, with the main purpose of identifying other distributions from this family with applicability in flood frequency analysis compared to the distribution already used in the literature from this family such as Generalized Pareto Type II and Wakeby. This analysis is part of a larger and more complex research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics regarding the elaboration of a norm for flood frequency analysis using the linear moments method. In Romania, the standard me

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Mousavi, Seyed Nasrollah, Renato Steinke Júnior, Eder Daniel Teixeira, et al. "Predictive Modeling the Free Hydraulic Jumps Pressure through Advanced Statistical Methods." Mathematics 8, no. 3 (2020): 323. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8030323.

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Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps potentially endanger the stability of stilling basins. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of the results of laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the extreme pressures. Experiments were carried out on a smooth stilling basin underneath free hydraulic jumps downstream of an Ogee spillway. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, pressures with different probabilities could be determined. It was verified that maximum pressure fluctuations, and the negative pressures, are located at the positions near the

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Allen, Trevor I. "SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATION IN STABLE CONTINENTAL REGIONS: DOES PSHA MEET THE NEEDS FOR MODERN ENGINEERING DESIGN IN AUSTRALIA?" Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 53, no. 1 (2020): 22–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.53.1.22-36.

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Damaging earthquakes in Australia and other regions characterised by low seismicity are considered low probability but high consequence events. Uncertainties in modelling earthquake occurrence rates and ground motions for damaging earthquakes in these regions pose unique challenges to forecasting seismic hazard, including the use of this information as a reliable benchmark to improve seismic safety within our communities. Key challenges for assessing seismic hazards in these regions are explored, including: the completeness and continuity of earthquake catalogues; the identification and charac

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Markiewicz, Iwona, Ewa Bogdanowicz, and Krzysztof Kochanek. "Quantile Mixture and Probability Mixture Models in a Multi-Model Approach to Flood Frequency Analysis." Water 12, no. 10 (2020): 2851. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102851.

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The classical approach to flood frequency analysis (FFA) may result in significant jumps in the estimates of upper quantiles along with the lengthening series of measurements. Our proposal is a multi-model approach, also called the aggregation technique, which has turned out to be an effective method for the modeling of maximum flows, in large part eliminating the disadvantages of traditional methods. In this article, we present a probability mixture model relying on the aggregation the probabilities of non-exceedance of a constant flow value from the candidate distributions; and we compare it

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Bulteau, T., D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin. "How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 6 (2015): 1135–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1135-2015.

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Abstract. The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in ar

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Bulteau, T., D. Idier, J. Lambert, and M. Garcin. "How historical information can improve extreme coastal water levels probability prediction: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, no. 11 (2014): 7061–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-7061-2014.

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Abstract. The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in ar

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Arena, Felice, Giuseppe Barbaro, and Alessandra Romolo. "Return Period of a Sea Storm with at Least Two Waves Higher than a Fixed Threshold." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2013 (2013): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/416212.

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Practical applications in ocean engineering require the long-term analysis for prediction of extreme waves, that identify design conditions. If extreme individual waves are investigated, we need to combine long-term statistical analysis of ocean waves with short-term statistics. The former considers the distribution of standard deviation of free surface displacement in the considered location in a long-time span, of order of 10 years or more. The latter analyzes the distribution of individual wave heights in a sea state, which is a Gaussian process in time domain. Recent advanced approaches en

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Pallard, B., A. Castellarin, and A. Montanari. "A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13, no. 7 (2009): 1019–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1019-2009.

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Abstract. We investigate the links between the drainage density of a river basin and selected flood statistics, namely, mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness of annual maximum series of peak flows. The investigation is carried out through a three-stage analysis. First, a numerical simulation is performed by using a spatially distributed hydrological model in order to highlight how flood statistics change with varying drainage density. Second, a conceptual hydrological model is used in order to analytically derive the dependence of flood statistics on dr

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Pertaia, Giorgi, and Stan Uryasev. "Fitting heavy-tailed mixture models with CVaR constraints." Dependence Modeling 7, no. 1 (2019): 365–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/demo-2019-0019.

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AbstractStandard methods of fitting finite mixture models take into account the majority of observations in the center of the distribution. This paper considers the case where the decision maker wants to make sure that the tail of the fitted distribution is at least as heavy as the tail of the empirical distribution. For instance, in nuclear engineering, where probability of exceedance (POE) needs to be estimated, it is important to fit correctly tails of the distributions. The goal of this paper is to supplement the standard methodology and to assure an appropriate heaviness of the fitted tai

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Pallard, B., A. Castellarin, and A. Montanari. "A look at the links between drainage density and flood statistics." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 5, no. 5 (2008): 2899–926. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-5-2899-2008.

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Abstract. We investigate the links between the drainage density of a river basin and selected flood statistics, namely the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of skewness of annual maximum series of peak flows. The investigation is carried out through a three-stage analysis. First, a numerical simulation is performed by using a spatially distributed hydrological model in order to highlight how flood statistics change with varying drainage density. Second, a conceptual hydrological model is used in order to analytically derive the dependence of flood statistics on

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Allen, Trevor I., Jonathan D. Griffin, Mark Leonard, Dan J. Clark, and Hadi Ghasemi. "The 2018 national seismic hazard assessment of Australia: Quantifying hazard changes and model uncertainties." Earthquake Spectra 36, no. 1_suppl (2020): 5–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/8755293019900777.

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Seismic hazard assessments in stable continental regions such as Australia face considerable challenges compared with active tectonic regions. Long earthquake recurrence intervals relative to historical records make forecasting the magnitude, rates, and locations of future earthquakes difficult. Similarly, there are few recordings of strong ground motions from moderate-to-large earthquakes to inform development and selection of appropriate ground-motion models (GMMs). Through thorough treatment of these epistemic uncertainties, combined with major improvements to the earthquake catalog, a 2018

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Schneider, J. M., J. D. Garbrecht, and D. A. Unger. "A Heuristic Method for Time Disaggregation of Seasonal Climate Forecasts." Weather and Forecasting 20, no. 2 (2005): 212–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf839.1.

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Abstract To be immediately useful in practical applications that employ daily weather generators, seasonal climate forecasts issued for overlapping 3-month periods need to be disaggregated into a sequence of 1-month forecasts. Direct linear algebraic approaches to disaggregation produce physically unrealistic sequences of monthly forecasts. As an alternative, a heuristic method has been developed to disaggregate the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) probability of exceedance seasonal precipitation forecasts, and tested on observed precipitation data for 1971–2000 for the 102 forecast divisi

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Tinti, Stefano, and Francesco Mulargia. "Effects of magnitude uncertainties on estimating the parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 75, no. 6 (1985): 1681–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0750061681.

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Abstract The evaluation of the parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) frequency-magnitude law log Nr = a − bm is shown to be strongly affected by magnitude uncertainties. If the magnitude errors are assumed to be distributed normally with standard deviation σ, the observed magnitude that we call the “apparent magnitude,” becomes a random variable, and the frequency-apparent magnitude law differs from the GR relation. We show that there is a range of magnitudes within which this law may be approximated as log Na = a − bm + γ2log(e). Here, γ2 = β2σ2/2, [β = b/log(e)], and Na stands for the app

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Mizuki, Chiharu, and Yasuhisa Kuzuha. "Frequency Analysis of Hydrological Data for Urban Floods—Review of Traditional Methods and Recent Developments, Especially an Introduction of Japanese Proper Methods." Water 15, no. 13 (2023): 2490. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15132490.

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Frequency analysis has long been an important theme of hydrology research. Although meteorological techniques (physical approaches) such as radar nowcasting, remote sensing, and forecasting heavy rainfall events using meteorological simulation models are quite effective for urban disaster prevention, statistical and stochastic theories that include frequency analysis, which are usually used in flood control plans, are also valuable for flood control plans for disaster prevention. Master plans for flood control projects in urban areas often use the concept of T-year hydrological values with a T

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Huang, Jun-Qi, Xun Chong, Qing Jiang, Xian-Guo Ye, and Han-Qin Wang. "Seismic Response Reduction of Megaframe with Vibration Control Substructure." Shock and Vibration 2018 (August 26, 2018): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/9427908.

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Megaframe with vibration control substructure (MFVCS) is a tuned mass damper system, which converts the substructures into the tuned mass. In this study, a kind of MFVCS using both lead-rubber bearings and viscous dampers to connect the vibration control substructure with the megaframe was proposed. Then, based on a validated finite element model, a parametric analysis was conducted to study the effect of two parameters, the tuning frequency (i.e., the frequency of the substructure) and the damping provided by the lead-rubber bearings and viscous dampers on the seismic response reduction of th

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Rybnikova, L. S., M. G. Morozov, P. A. Rybnikov, N. L. Frolova, and A. V. Komin. "Artificial Groundwater Replenishment in the Republic of Kalmykia: The Sources, Problems, and Perspectives." Водные ресурсы 50, no. 6 (2023): 651–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s0321059623700049.

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The Republic of Kalmykia is located in the northwestern part of the Caspian Region and belongs to arid regions. The issue of water resources availability is extremely relevant here. Groundwater plays an important role in this aspect as a main and often the only source of drinking water supply. However, its use is limited because of its low natural quality. An approach to an increase in the operational groundwater reserves is its artificial replenishment. The Russian Research Institute for Integrated Use and Protection of Water Resources in 2020–2021 studied the possibility of replenishing wate

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Onyango, Edith, Raphael Wambua, and Hesbon Otieno. "FORECASTING OF FLOOD EVENTS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN GUCHA-MIGORI RIVER BASIN, KENYA." Journal of Engineering in Agriculture and the Environment 10, no. 1 (2024): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.37017/jeae-volume10-no1.2024-1.

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Floods are devastating natural disasters frequently occurring in many river basins such as Gucha-Migori River Basin, Kenya. However, non-structural countermeasures such as hydrologic modelling, flood proofing, and continuous forecasting have not been fully explored and implemented to reduce risk, damage, and vulnerabilities of flood events. The major challenge in flood forecasting is the selection of the relevant probability distribution. The main objective of the study was to forecast flood events in Gucha-Migori River Basin for integrated water resource management. Daily hydrological dataset

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Porter, Keith A., James L. Beck, and Rustem Shaikhutdinov. "Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings." Earthquake Spectra 20, no. 4 (2004): 1239–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1809129.

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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss ( PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss ( PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss ( EAL) through a site economic haza

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Tint, Zar Lee, Nyan Myint Kyaw, and Kyaw Kyaw. "Development of Soil Distribution and Liquefaction Potential Maps for Downtown Area in Yangon, Myanmar." Civil Engineering Journal 4, no. 3 (2018): 689. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-0309108.

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The problem of soil against liquefaction during earthquakes is devastating geotechnical phenomenon. Soil against liquefaction is generally occurred in loose cohesionless saturated soil when pore water pressure increases suddenly due to earthquakes and shear strength of the soil decreases to zero. Yangon area has been chosen as the study area because it is the most populated and largest city in Myanmar and located in low to medium seismicity region. In this purpose, the liquefaction potential map have been prepared for site planners and decision makers to prevent loss of lives. Geographic Infor

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Pamirbek K, Merim, Chen X, Sainath Aher, Alamanov Salamat, Pragati Deshmukh, and Choduraev Temirbek. "Analysis of Discharge Variability in the Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan." Hydrospatial Analysis 3, no. 2 (2020): 90–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.21523/gcj3.19030204.

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Changing climate and land-use practices influencing the natural stream flow processes in the Naryn river basin of Kyrgyzstan. Variations in stream flow regime over 33-years (1980 to 2012) were investigated using daily discharge data of three hydro-stations (Naryn, Ych-Terek and Uzunakmat), located in the Naryn River Basin. Mean monthly discharge (MMD), mean annual discharge (MAD), standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV) were calculated to know the spatio-temporal variability. Similarly, Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) was used to know the relationship between discharge

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Over, Thomas, Mackenzie Marti, and Hannah Podzorski. "Regional Analysis of the Dependence of Peak-Flow Quantiles on Climate with Application to Adjustment to Climate Trends." Hydrology 12, no. 5 (2025): 119. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12050119.

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Standard flood-frequency analysis methods rely on an assumption of stationarity, but because of growing understanding of climatic persistence and concern regarding the effects of climate change, the need for methods to detect and model nonstationary flood frequency has become widely recognized. In this study, a regional statistical method for estimating the effects of climate variations on annual maximum (peak) flows that allows for the effect to vary by quantile is presented and applied. The method uses a panel–quantile regression framework based on a location-scale model with two fixed effec

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Cabotaje, Rey Albert C., and Geffren R. Bernardo. "Performance Based Seismic Evaluation of Four-Story School Building by Pushover Analysis Using the Metro Davao Earthquake Model." Key Engineering Materials 987 (September 23, 2024): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/p-f6inyj.

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The recent discovery of the Central Davao Fault System leads to assessing the buildings' seismic performance close to the area. DOST-PAGASA released the Earthquake Atlas, "Metro Davao Earthquake Model," that shows research data and valuable information that would be used in designing new structures and seismic evaluation. Using this Earthquake Atlas, a Four Storey Professional School Building in the University of Mindanao was assessed using ASCE/SEI 41. Structural Engineers and Practitioners widely use the code for Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings. As-built plans were acquired first fo

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JHA, SOMNATH, RAMESH RAGHAVA, and VINAY KUMAR SEHGAL. "Risk assessment of extreme Indian summer monsoon precipitation on agro-ecosystem of northern and central-east India." MAUSAM 67, no. 1 (2021): 143–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v67i1.1157.

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Risk of extreme precipitation anomaly of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on agro-ecosystems of Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and central-east India regions has been assessed in the present study. Using monthly gridded precipitation data, standardized precipitation index (SPI) has been computed as the hazard component of the standard risk computation. The agro-ecosystems of IGP are exposed to higher risk due to extreme ISM precipitation anomaly than that of the central-east India. IGP being an irrigated region and central-east India being a rainfed region would be affected differentially due to the inc

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Bazzurro, Paolo, and C. Allin Cornell. "Disaggregation of seismic hazard." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 89, no. 2 (1999): 501–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0890020501.

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Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates over all potential earthquake occurrences and ground motions to estimate the mean frequency of exceedance of any given spectral acceleration at the site. For improved communication and insights, it is becoming common practice to display the relative contributions to that hazard from the range of values of magnitude, M, distance, R, and epsilon, ɛ, the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by an attenuation equation. The proposed disaggregation procedures, while conceptually similar, differ in se

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Lin, Yuan-Chien, Hua-San Shih, Chun-Yeh Lai, and Jen-Kuo Tai. "Investigating a Potential Map of PM2.5 Air Pollution and Risk for Tourist Attractions in Hsinchu County, Taiwan." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 22 (2020): 8691. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228691.

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In the past few years, human health risks caused by fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and other air pollutants have gradually received attention. According to the Disaster Prevention and Protection Act of Taiwan’s Government enforced in 2017, “suspended particulate matter” has officially been acknowledged as a disaster-causing hazard. The long-term exposure to high concentrations of air pollutants negatively affects the health of citizens. Therefore, the precise determination of the spatial long-term distribution of hazardous high-level air pollutants can help protect the health and safety of r

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Amiri Tokaldany, Ebrahim, Ramesh P. Rudra, Pradeep Goel, Shiv Prasher, Prasad Daggupati, and Jaskaran Dhiman. "Impact of Climate Change on the Number of Frost-free Winter Days in Prairies and Eastern Provinces of Canada." Journal of the ASABE 67, no. 3 (2024): 797–808. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/ja.15900.

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Highlights In northern region of Prairies and eastern provinces of Canada, the change in Frost-Free Days (FFDs) for the period of 1938–2022 is nearly negligible. In the stations located at the south of Ontario (called southern stations here), a maximum increase of 4.4 to 5.8 in FFDs per month was noted during the study period at different locations. The rates of change in FFDs per unit °C of the monthly mean of the daily minimum temperature (MMDMT) vary from a minimum of 0.001 to a maximum value of 2.92 days at the selected stations. Abstract. Although a considerable number of studies related

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Snaiki, Reda, and Teng Wu. "Knowledge-Enhanced Deep Learning for Simulation of Extratropical Cyclone Wind Risk." Atmosphere 13, no. 5 (2022): 757. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050757.

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Boundary-layer wind associated with extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is an essential element for posing serious threats to the urban centers of eastern North America. Using a similar methodology for tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk (i.e., hurricane tracking approach), the ETC wind risk can be accordingly simulated. However, accurate and efficient assessment of the wind field inside the ETC is currently not available. To this end, a knowledge-enhanced deep learning (KEDL) is developed in this study to estimate the ETC boundary-layer winds over eastern North America. Both physics-based equations and

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