Academic literature on the topic 'Standard reference. eng'

In Russia there is a system for standardizing and control over aerosols with predominantly fibrogenic effects and dust particles with different structure. But at the same time there are no hygienic standards for fine-dispersed dust contents in working area air and it makes hygienic assessment of working conditions more complicated and impedes use of risk assessment methodology. Our research goal was to substantiate a concentration of aerosols containing fine-dispersed dust particles (РМ10 и РМ2.5) in working are air that were harmless for workers’ health. It was done via applying a procedure for determining dust burden and using it when calculating health risks for workers. We assessed dust content in working area air with focus on fine-dispersed dust particles РМ10 и РМ2.5 with a dust measuring device «OMPN-10.0». Chemical structure of dust particles was determined with atomic absorption procedure. Results were estimated according to HS 2.2.5.3532-18. Dust burden was calculated according to State standard GOST R 54578-2011. We established dependence between duration of working experience under exposure to fine-dispersed dust that was harmless for health and a value of excess in dust contents over the suggested concentration and work shift duration. To assess health risk for workers caused by exposure to fine-dispersed dust particles taking their chemical structure into account, we determined reference concentrations for working area air; 0.1 mg/m3 for РМ10, and 0.055 mg/m3 for РМ2.5. Use of calculated concentrations allowed suggesting models for calculating harmless duration of working experience under exposure to dusts in concentrations higher than recommended ones. The results enable substantiating organizational activities aimed at workers’ health preservation.

In Russia there is a system for standardizing and control over aerosols with predominantly fibrogenic effects and dust particles with different structure. But at the same time there are no hygienic standards for fine-dispersed dust contents in working area air and it makes hygienic assessment of working conditions more complicated and impedes use of risk assessment methodology. Our research goal was to substantiate a concentration of aerosols containing fine-dispersed dust particles (РМ10 и РМ2.5) in working are air that were harmless for workers’ health. It was done via applying a procedure for determining dust burden and using it when calculating health risks for workers. We assessed dust content in working area air with focus on fine-dispersed dust particles РМ10 и РМ2.5 with a dust measuring device «OMPN-10.0». Chemical structure of dust particles was determined with atomic absorption procedure. Results were estimated according to HS 2.2.5.3532-18. Dust burden was calculated according to State standard GOST R 54578-2011. We established dependence between duration of working experience under exposure to fine-dispersed dust that was harmless for health and a value of excess in dust contents over the suggested concentration and work shift duration. To assess health risk for workers caused by exposure to fine-dispersed dust particles taking their chemical structure into account, we determined reference concentrations for working area air; 0.1 mg/m3 for РМ10, and 0.055 mg/m3 for РМ2.5. Use of calculated concentrations allowed suggesting models for calculating harmless duration of working experience under exposure to dusts in concentrations higher than recommended ones. The results enable substantiating organizational activities aimed at workers’ health preservation.

AbstractThe sandwich plate can be used to replace the conventional steel stiffened plates on the ship’s hull structure. By using the sandwich plate, not only the stiffness of the plate can be increased but also the overall ship weight can be reduced, as well as the ship payload can be increased. The sandwich plate should be accompanied by the damage identification system to prevent ship structural failure. In this paper, the global damage identification method, which is based on the vibration analysis, is investigated. For that purpose, the vibration-based damage identification using the Finite Element Method (FEM) is explored. The variables being investigated are the damage sizes, damage locations, and the boundary conditions which affect the natural frequencies of the structures. The sandwich plate considered in this study consisted of steel faceplates with the polyurethane elastomer core, which has been checked to meet Lloyd’s register, an international maritime standard. From the analysis, it is found that the fully clamped boundary conditions accompanied by high vibration modes are more sensitive to the presence of artificial damage. The changes in the natural frequencies can be used as a reference to identify the size and location of damage in the sandwich plate.

Proteomic profiling is a promising procedure for examining and substantiating molecular mechanisms of body reactions occurrence and development as a response to adverse impacts; it allows detecting and examining these reactions at early stages in their development prior to cellular damage and damage to organs. Studies aimed at increasing efficiency of adverse effects prediction are especially vital for solving tasks related to early detection and prevention of consequences associated with exposure to chemical environmental factors, first of all, ambient air. Our research goal was to identify omic-markers for predicting risks of negative effects in children with elevated copper and nickel contents in blood. We performed proteomic blood plasma examination in children and modeled cause-and-effect relations. Children with copper and nickel contents in their blood being 3.5 times higher than physiological standard had approximately 20 protein stains that were authentically different from those detected in children from the reference group. We detected correlations between an increase in relative volume of three protein stains including apolipoprotein A-I, anchor protein of A-kinase 9, vitronectin, and a decrease in relative volume of one protein strain including transthyretin and elevated copper and nickel contents in blood (R2=0.30–0.44; р=0.0001–0.008). All the above-mentioned proteins have predictive significance when it comes down to negative effects related to neuroregulation disorders and endothelial dysfunction. It was proven that there was a risk of predicted negative effects such as greater frequency of nervous and cardiovascular system diseases in case copper and nickel contents in blood were elevated (R2=0.35–0.96; р=0.0001–0.013). The established list of potential target molecules (apolipoprotein A-I, vitronectin, anchor protein of A-kinase 9, and transthyretin) and genes that coded their expression (APOA1, VTN,AKAP9,TTR) was substantiated as omic-markers indicating a possibility that negative effects might occur in the cardiovascular and nervous system.

Using of learning management systems increases the possibility of teachers and students in achieving their goals in education. Such systems provide learning content, help to organize and to monitor training progress, help to collect statistics. However, the transition from one LMS to another there is a problem of content migration, because all training materials and tests should either be recreated, or somehow be migrated to the new system. Content migration by hand is a very time-consuming process, so the leading developers of the learning management systems developed a standard for the organization and storage of content, called SCORM (Eng., Sharable Content Object Reference Model). Created by this standard, the content must migrate to the learning management system provided its support for these systems. SCORM standard allows you to create training content that is not dependent on the learning management system, but the loosely embedded in it. This approach enables teachers to develop unique courses and put them free available or for sale in the Internet for all interested persons, and to use educational content created by the best specialists around the world to carry out their activities. The content on the SCORM standard imposes certain requirements on the learning management systems, as they do not distort the training content and properly interact with the tests. The aim of this article is a software implementation of a content migration by SCORM standard from other learning management systems in its own development used at the Software Department of the Faculty of Information Technology and Robotics of the Belarusian National Technical University.

Background and objectives: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a common pathology, but sometimes the diagnosis is delayed in patients with diabetic neuropathy (DN). The aim of the study is twofold: first, to compare the accuracy of ultrasound (US) with that of electroneurography (ENG) in the diagnosis of CTS associated with DN, using the clinical diagnosis as a reference standard, and second, to investigate the correlation between morphological US parameters and electrodiagnosis (EDX) measurements in patients with CTS and DN. Materials and Methods: This study included patients with DN. They were divided into two groups: Control (patients without CTS) and Cases (patients with CTS). We performed US and ENG in both hands, totaling 56 wrists, with 28 wrists in each group. Results: We found that the difference in the sensory distal latencies between the median and the ulnar nerves (ring finger) exhibited the highest diagnostic accuracy of all the US and ENG parameters, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) = 0.99 (95% CI 0.97–1), and it was significantly different from the best US diagnostic method. The wrist cross-sectional area (CSA) had the most accurate US diagnosis, while the wrist-to-forearm ratio had the worst AUC. Moreover, in the group of CTS and DN patients, the wrist CSA enlargement was statistically directly proportional to the median compound muscle action potential (CMAP) distal latency and inversely proportional to the antidromic median nerve conduction study (NCS) and the orthodromic median palm–wrist NCS. Conclusions: Both examinations can be used with confidence in the diagnosis of CTS overlapping with DN, but the EDX examination seems to be more accurate. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between the US and EDX parameters.

Tensile strength ft and fracture toughness KIC of ceramic are not deterministic properties or fixed values, but fluctuate within certain ranges. A nonlinear elastic fracture mechanics model was developed in this study and combined with the common normal distribution to predict ceramic’s ft and KIC with consideration of their scatters in a statistical sense. In the model, the relative characteristic crack size a*ch/G (characteristic crack size a*ch, average grain size G) was determined based on the fracture measurements on five types of ceramics with different G from 2 to 20 μm in the reference (Usami S, et al., Eng. Fract Mech. 1986, 23, 745). The combined application of the model and normal distribution has two functions: (i) probabilistic ft and KIC can be derived from seemingly randomly varied fracture tests on small ceramic specimens containing different initial defects/cracks, and (ii) with ft or KIC values (corresponding mean and standard deviation), fracture strength of heterogeneous samples with and without cracks can be predicted by considering scatter described by specified reliability. For the fine ceramics, the predicted results containing the mean and the upper and lower bounds with 96% reliability gained with the model, match very well with the experimental results (a, σN).

AbstractThe field of automated ECG analysis was one of the earliest topics in Medical Informatics and may be regarded as a model both for computer-assisted medical diagnosis and for evaluating medical diagnostic programs. The CSE project has set reference standards of two kinds: In a broad sense, a standard how to perform a comprehensive evaluation study, in a narrow sense, standards as specific references for evaluating computer ECG programs. The evaluation methodology used within the CSE project is described as a basis for presentation of results which are published elsewhere in this issue.

Certain essential and conditionally essential natural elements (selenium, chromium, iodine, molybdenum, cobalt, vanadium, fluorine, lithium, silicon, boron, and bromine) are standardized in terms of their contents in drinking water as per sanitary-toxicological parameters of adverse health effects. Our research goal was to determine a contribution made by drinking water into supplying a human body with essential natural elements as well as to substantiate the necessity to update standards regarding these substances. We applied calculation models for dose equivalents of essential elements MPC (maximum permissible concentration), MPC calculations for these substances basing on a necessary 20 % contribution made by drinking water into reference doses, and calculation of non-carcinogenic health risks due to essential elements occurrence in specific drinking water sources with these elements being distributed into different groups as per similar effects produced on certain organs and systems in a body. We took existing drinking water sources containing 6 essential elements with similar effects as an example and applied a procedure for assessing non-carcinogenic health risks. Acting nickel and selenium MPC do not supply a body with an optimal daily intake whereas their determined MPC are not only harmless but also conform to the minimum necessary intake dose. At the same time neither acting lithium MPC nor its calculated one taking into account risk assessment based on internationally accepted reference doses doesn’t provide the minimum necessary daily intake into a human body. When boron and vanadium are contained in drinking water in a concentration close to their MPC, then their 20 % contribution into the reference dose is exceeded (71.4 % and 164.7 % accordingly). Introduction of these essential elements with food can become a factor that determines non-carcinogenic risk level.

Orientador: Alberto José Cavalheiro
Banca: Fernando Batista da Costa
Banca: João Carlos Palazzo de Mello
Resumo: Tendo em vista o pequeno acervo de padrões de referência disponíveis para uso no controle de qualidade de fitoterápicos preparados a partir de espécies nativas brasileiras, este trabalho tem como objetivos preparar e caracterizar padrões de alta pureza de casearinas a partir de Casearia sylvestris, uma planta nativa da flora brasileira, que há muito tempo vem sendo usada pela população. A estratégia utilizada para o isolamento das casearinas consistiu no fracionamento do extrato etanólico das folhas por extração em fase sólida utilizando sílica e carvão ativo, cromatografia em coluna em fase normal, além de desenvolvimento de método em CLAE preparativo em fase reversa no modo isocrático e reciclante. Para as análises por CLAE preparativo no modo isocrático, inicialmente, alguns parâmetros como resolução, carga e volume de injeção foram otimizados em coluna analítica e posteriormente foi feita a transferência de escala para coluna preparativa utilizando fator de escalonamento de 21,2. A transferência foi adequada, resultando no isolamento de 10,5 mg da casearina J, 30,0 mg da casearina X e 3,0 mg da casearina Z. Em modo reciclante, foram isolados 60,0 mg da caseargrewiina F. As análises de pureza dessas substâncias foram feitas através de CLAE- DAD, calculando-se primeiramente a pureza de pico, que foi de 100% para as três casearinas analisadas e, posteriormente, a pureza cromatográfica, pelo método de normalização de área, sendo de 85,5, 97,2, e 98,6% para as casearinas J, X e caseargrewiina F, respectivamente. As análises por CLAE-DAD-EM foram importantes para confirmar o resultado de pureza de pico, assim como para obter os dados de massas dos contaminantes presentes nessas amostras. O grau de pureza por DSC não pôde ser obtido, devido à ausência do pico referente à fusão das casearinas, inferindo que as substâncias... (resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: Taking into account the few library of reference standards available for the use in quality control of phytotherapic agents from Brazilian native species, the aim of this work was to prepare and characterize high purity standards of casearins from Casearia sylvestris, a native plant of the Brazilian flora that has been used traditionally by population for a long time as remedy. The strategy to isolate the casearins was to fraction at the ethanolic extract from leaves by solid phase extraction using silica and active charcoal, column chromatography (normal phase) and, additionally, the method development in preparative HPLC (reverse phase) using isocratic e recycling mode. For the analyses by preparative HPLC using isocratic mode, firstly of all some parameters like resolution, amount of sample and volume injection were optimized in analytical column and then the scale-up to preparative column was carried out using a scale factor of 21.2. The scale-up was appropriate, leading to the isolation of 10.5 mg of the casearin J, 30.0 mg of the casearin X and 3.0 mg of the casearin Z. In recycling mode, 60.0 mg of the caseargrewiin F were isolated. The purity analyses of these substances were carried out by HPLC-DAD, firstly measuring the peak purity, wich was 100.0% for the three analyzed casearins, and then, the chromatographic purity, by the area normalization method, wich was 85.5, 97.2 and 98.6% for the casearins J, X and caseargrewiin F, respectively. The HPLC-DAD-MS analyses were important to confirm the peak purity results as well as to obtain the mass data of contaminants wich are usually present in these samples. The measurement of the purity degree by DSC method was not possible due to the absence of fusion peak, thus it suggests an amorphous state for these substances. From the TG/DTG/DTA curves, it was possible to suggest the absence of volatile... ((Complete abstract click electronic access below)
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The textbook includes the organization of independent work c system Thomson Reuters students studying disciplines related to the management of a portfolio of financial assets. Theoretical and practical information, as well as an algorithm for working with Thomson Reuters for solving educational and scientific problems. At the end of the training manuals given references. Meets the requirements of Federal state educational standards of higher education of the last generation. Designed for students enrolled in training 38.04.02 "Management" (master program "Investment management in the innovation economy").

In the textbook, the rules of Russian spelling and punctuation are grouped by topics: "Spelling of roots", "Spelling of suffixes and endings", "Use of hyphens", "Colons and dashes", etc. Training exercises will help to consolidate the theoretical material. The summary tables and answers to the exercises given at the end of the book allow you to control yourself during independent classes. The reference nature of the book contributes to the rapid and successful preparation for control works, tests and exams in the Russian language. Meets the requirements of the federal state standards of secondary vocational education of the latest generation. For students of secondary vocational education, as well as for high school students, applicants, students and everyone who wants to master the skills of literate writing.

The purpose of the textbook is to give students an idea of the theoretical grammar of the English language and the issues that it solves. The basics of the general grammatical theory and theoretical grammar of the modern English language are described. The sections of grammar — morphology and syntax, their correlation in different languages are considered. The most important grammatical concepts are analyzed: a word, a phrase, a sentence. The idea of the theory of parts of speech, as well as parts of speech in the English language is given. The textbook includes eight chapters, a bibliographic list and appendices containing additional material. Each chapter is devoted to a specific question of theoretical grammar. At the end of each chapter, conclusions are given — a summary of its essence, a list of references, questions and tasks that help to assimilate the material are given. Meets the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. It is recommended for students of philological faculties of universities studying the theory of grammar and theoretical grammar of the English language.

This chapter identifies the content and scope of application of the EU prohibition of refoulement. Following the ‘cumulative standards’ approach, the analysis incorporates developments in international human rights law (IHRL) and international refugee law (IRL). Taking account of the prominent role of the ECHR and the Refugee Convention (CSR51) as sources of Article 19 CFR, these are the two main instruments taken in consideration. The scope of application of Articles 33 CSR51 and 3 ECHR will be identified in turns. Autonomous requirements of EU law will be determined by reference to the asylum acquis as interpreted by the CJEU. The main focus will be on the establishment of the territorial reach of EU non-refoulement. The idea that it may be territorially confined will be rejected. Drawing on the ‘Fransson paradigm’, a ‘functional’ understanding of the ‘implementation of EU law’ standard under Article 51 CFR will be put forward, as the decisive factor to determine applicability of Charter provisions. The implications of non-refoulement for the different measures of extraterritorial control considered in Part I will be delineated at the end.

Arterial hypertension is a well-recognized manifestation of various forms of renal disease both in adults and children. In the paediatric age group, standards for normal blood pressure are different from adults and have now been satisfactorily defined as have standards for measuring blood pressure. The epidemic of overweight and obesity in youth is increasing the prevalence of hypertension among children and adolescents. Measurement of blood pressure requires a technique specific for different age groups of the paediatric population, is more complex and requires particular expertise. Reference values in children requires adaptation to the age and size of the child and interpretation must be related to normative values specific for age, sex, and height. Evaluation for causes of secondary hypertension and for end-organ damage is basically similar in children as in adults. This chapter discusses measuring blood pressure, blood pressure standards, definition, classification, clinical presentation, and diagnostic approach to hypertension in children.

Routine assessment of nutritional status should be part of normal practice when seeing any patient. The purpose is to document objective nutritional parameters (e.g. anthropometry), identify nutritional deficiencies, and establish nutritional needs. Protein–energy malnutrition has many adverse consequences including growth failure (identified by reference to standard growth charts). Worldwide, malnutrition contributes to a third of deaths in children under 5 years of age, and one in nine people don’t have enough food to lead an active and healthy life. In developed countries, malnutrition complicates both acute and chronic illness with negative effects on outcomes. In clinical practice, a useful approach to nutritional assessment is to consider three elements: ‘what you are’ (i.e. body habitus—underweight for height; short for age; etc.), ‘what you can do’ (functional activity), and ‘what you eat’ (current nutritional intake).

Musical comedy in London’s West End theatres during and on either side of the Edwardian period is reassessed against the traditional narrative of period obsolescence and Americanization. This is done through close readings of audience capacity and demographics, musical economics, musical topics, script and lyric writing (including humour), standard plots, performance practice, and opulent production values. The genre’s celebration of modernity and investment not only in the British Empire but also in its own merchandise and afterlife of amateur productions is analysed. Special reference is made to the producer George Edwardes; the composers Lionel Monckton, Paul Rubens, and Howard Talbot; the lyricist Adrian Ross; the stars Gertie Millar and George Grossmith; and the shows The Arcadians, To-Night’s the Night, The Quaker Girl, and A Country Girl. The genre’s particular appeal during the First World War is also covered. Research questions for the future are raised.

The Backyard Duck Book is a revised edition of Nyiri Murtagh’s popular book, For the Love of Ducks, but with colour photographs of the duck breeds. It covers all aspects of duck husbandry, from selecting a breed and buying ducks to housing, breeding, feeding and health. It includes a description of each of the duck breeds currently available in Australia, the standards for each breed, their egg-laying capacity and their potential as table birds. The book also has a comprehensive section on artificial incubation of eggs that includes step-by-step instructions on how to test eggs for fertility and defects. Crossbreeding, developing your own lines and raising ducks for meat are also covered. Backyard poultry farmers, small-acre farmers and hobby farmers will find this book an enjoyable and useful reference.

Over 3,900 entriesThis best-selling dictionary contains entries on all aspects of accounting, including financial accounting, financial reporting, management accounting, taxation, auditing, corporate finance, and accounting bodies and institutions. Its international coverage includes important terms from the UK, US, Australia, India, and Asia-Pacific.New entries reflect the latest developments in the accounting profession, e.g. Accounting Council, European Financial Stability Mechanism, and General Anti-Abuse Rule. Existing entries have been updated to cover the latest developments, most notably the Financial Reporting Standard Applicable in the UK and the Republic of Ireland, which sets out new rules in areas such as goodwill, hedge accounting, and fair value accounting. There is increased coverage of topics such as corporate governance, accounting ethics, accounting scandals, and major firms and professional bodies.This dictionary is essential for students and professionals in accounting and finance, and an ideal source of reference for anyone seeking a clear guide to the often-confusing world of accountancy terms.

Corporate social responsibility is a subject of growing importance in business and law. Today, no analysis of corporate governance systems would be complete without considering the pressures on companies to be seen as responsible corporate citizens. This chapter provides a descriptive overview of developments in the field, including increasing voluntary and required environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure; and proliferating voluntary and multilateral standards for responsible corporate behavior. It reviews some of the more significant empirical evidence on the financial results of companies’ implementation of corporate responsibility initiatives, including the effects of such initiatives on innovation, trust, and social welfare. It concludes with an analysis relating these developments to arguments about the objectives of the corporation and the shareholder/stakeholder debate—with particular reference to the argument between Cornell Distinguished Professor of Corporate and Business Law, Lynn A. Stout, and Chief Justice of the Delaware Supreme Court, Leo E. Strine, Jr.

Abstract Invariants and error traces are important results of a program analysis, and therefore, a standardized exchange format for verification witnesses is used by many program analyzers to store and share those results. This way, information about program traces and variable assignments can be shared across tools, e.g., to validate verification results, or provided to users, e.g., to visualize and explore the results in order to fix bugs or understand the reason for a program’s correctness. The standard format for correctness and violation witnesses that was used by SV-COMP for several years was only applicable to sequential (single-threaded) programs. To enable the validation of results for multi-threaded programs, we extend the existing standard exchange format by adding information about thread management and thread interleaving. We contribute a reference implementation of a validator for violation witnesses in the new format, which we implemented as component of the software-verification framework "Image missing" . We experimentally evaluate the format and validator on a large set of violation witnesses. The outcome is promising: several verification tools already produce violation witnesses that help validating the verification results, and our witness validator can re-verify most of the produced witnesses.

This Chapter defines Citations, Citation Standards/Style Manuals and Scholarly Communication. It explains the importance of Scholarly Communication, and use of Citations in meeting the objectives of Scholarly Communication, especially in avoiding the accidental danger of plagiarism. It also explains how Bibliographic Management Systems (software)—both open / free and proprietary—have been helpful to the academics and researchers in providing standard methods of citations that is, both in-text citations and references list at the end of the text of the document while writing documents. It concludes by emphasizing the need for use of standard citation or style manual for proper dissemination of scholarly communications. There is a need for gaining adequate knowledge on how to cite and provide references in correct form in the publications to make them quality and scholarly works and also to avoid from the accidental danger of plagiarism.

This Chapter defines Citations, Citation Standards/Style Manuals and Scholarly Communication. It explains the importance of Scholarly Communication, and use of Citations in meeting the objectives of Scholarly Communication, especially in avoiding the accidental danger of plagiarism. It also explains how Bibliographic Management Systems (software)—both open / free and proprietary—have been helpful to the academics and researchers in providing standard methods of citations that is, both in-text citations and references list at the end of the text of the document while writing documents. It concludes by emphasizing the need for use of standard citation or style manual for proper dissemination of scholarly communications. There is a need for gaining adequate knowledge on how to cite and provide references in correct form in the publications to make them quality and scholarly works and also to avoid from the accidental danger of plagiarism.

This chapter examines the characteristics of instrumentation needed to perform MEG and EEG recordings, and some practicalities of the recordings. It introduces MEG sensors (SQUIDs), EEG electrodes, and the internationally accepted standard electrode position systems. For EEG, the effects of different reference electrodes are compared. Important characteristics of amplifiers for EEG and MEG recordings are presented. Shielding against external artifacts, and the nature of specialized shielded rooms and their use is described. The special requirements for sensory stimulators and monitoring devices for use in the MEG/EEG environment are also examined. Finally, future developments in EEG and MEG systems are explored.

Over the years, the importance of open standards has been acknowledged in EU and national policies. Formal (e.g., ISO) standards are often referred to in software development and procurement. Use of formal (ISO) standards and to what extent ISO standards can be implemented in open source software is considered, with particular reference to patent licensing. It is shown that not all formal standards are open standards and that FRAND commitments may impose major challenges for use of such standards. Further policies and procedures set by standards setting organisations (SSOs) regarding the notification of standards-essential patents (SEPs) present challenges for organisations wishing to implement standards in software. This chapter elaborates implications and suggests ways of addressing the challenges identified. Use of formal standards may create barriers for implementation in open source software and inhibit an open and inclusive business-friendly ecosystem.

Over the years, the importance of open standards has been acknowledged in EU and national policies. Formal (e.g., ISO) standards are often referred to in software development and procurement. Use of formal (ISO) standards and to what extent ISO standards can be implemented in open source software is considered, with particular reference to patent licensing. It is shown that not all formal standards are open standards and that FRAND commitments may impose major challenges for use of such standards. Further policies and procedures set by standards setting organisations (SSOs) regarding the notification of standards-essential patents (SEPs) present challenges for organisations wishing to implement standards in software. This chapter elaborates implications and suggests ways of addressing the challenges identified. Use of formal standards may create barriers for implementation in open source software and inhibit an open and inclusive business-friendly ecosystem.

We have already described our three-level model of CASE tool integration in which services, mechanisms, and process all participate. In this chapter, we focus on the services aspect, and examine what we actually mean by “service.” We also consider the variety of services typically found in an environment, and the interrelationships between services and other aspects of an environment (i.e., interfaces between services). The vehicle for this examination is an abstract description called a “reference model.” We use the term reference model to characterize a model of a system taken from a purely conceptual standpoint. Such a conceptual model permits consideration of alternative implementations of a service, adding new implementations, and so on. We note the potential for confusion here, since the term reference model is often implicitly concerned with the notion of architecture; in many cases a reference model is understood to refer to a reference architecture. We do not use the term in this way. Our understanding of the term is closer to the concept of a “feature catalog”; it is explicitly not intended to identify an architecture, but rather is intended to provide a common reference point from which the functional capabilities of actual implementations can be described. This view is consistent with our separation of services (described in the reference model) both from the mechanisms that provide those services and also from the processes that they support. The reference model we use as our exemplar is the one developed by the U.S. Navy Next Generation Computer Resources (NGCR) Program. As part of the work of the NGCR, the Project Support Environments Standards Working Group (PSESWG) defined an environment reference model as its starting point for selecting interface standards. The working group examined many existing efforts (e.g., the Software Technology for Adaptable, Reliable Systems (STARS) Program, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Integrated Software Engineering Environment (ISEE) working group), synthesized many aspects from them, and eventually created an entirely new document called A Reference Model for Project Support Environments [63].

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally recognized as the most informative imaging technology for assessing patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies. Beyond its standard-of-reference-quality quantitative data, it provides unique information on myocardial tissue characteristics that allows for the detection, localization, and spatial quantification of myocardial oedema, fibrosis, and infiltration. This not only provides an accurate discrimination of non-ischaemic from ischaemic myocardial disease, but also has led to very specific diagnostic criteria for certain cardiomyopathies (e.g. myocarditis, cardiac amyloidosis, myocardial iron overload, stress-induced cardiomyopathy Takotsubo, or Fabry’s disease). Furthermore, CMR provides criteria for acute versus remote injury and, depending on the clinical context, evidence for myocardial inflammation such as in viral myocarditis. The chapter presents and discusses the important aspects of the clinical application of CMR in non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies with a focus on useful scan protocols, typical findings, added diagnostic value, and limitations. New approaches such as cardiac T1 mapping and T2 mapping are included. Key references on the current state-of-the-art use of CMR are provided and discussed.

This chapter covers the processing and application of electrical signals from the body, in particularly the electroencephalogram (EEG), the electrocardiogram (ECG), and the electromyogram (EMG). The EEG and ECG will be considered in their monitoring capacity. The EMG will be discussed along with simulation and neuromuscular blockade and monitoring. The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a surface reflection of the propagation of electrical depolarisation and repolarisation over the various contractile chambers of the heart. Depolarisation is the trigger for releasing the stored contractile energy in the cardiac muscle. Each chamber also produces electrical action and polarising recovery potentials associated with the mechanical contribution of the recovery. The ECG can be divided into two major components: one associated with the propagation of excitation and recovery of the atria; the other with these events occurring in the ventricles. Excitation of the atria gives rise to the P wave, after which the atrial contractions propel blood into the ventricles. An atrial recovery wave exists, but it is rarely seen, as it is obscured by ventricular excitation, which is signalled by the QRS wave. During the later part of the QRS wave, ventricular contraction commences. Recovery of the ventricles is preceded by the T wave. The ECG labels, i.e. PQRST, are shown in Figure 18.1. To localise the direction of excitation and recovery of the heart chambers (and also to estimate the extent of cardiac injury), a variety of electrode arrangements can be used. The electrodes (which are normally disposable silver–silver chloride as described in Chapter 5) are positioned on easily located anatomical landmarks such as the right arm (RA), the left arm (LA), and the left leg (LL), with the right leg usually providing the reference or common. The standard (1, II, III), augmented (aVR, aVL, aVF) and precordial (V) leads are routinely recorded by electrocardiographers. It is possible to locate the direction of excitation and recovery by considering that the direction of the event (excitation or recovery) is at right angles to the isoelectric lead (i.e. the lead with equal forces in the positive and negative). This can be demonstrated by forming an equilateral triangle (Einthoven’s triangle) such as in Figure 18.2(a).

Many end-users, specifiers, governmental agencies and testing facilities, are not fully aware of the wealth of standards available for GRP piping products and the continuing work being done in CEN &ISO and other standards developing organizations. As a result the introduction of Ad-Hoc test methods, standards and obsolete requirements is, unfortunately, not uncommon. The paper will list and comment available GRP Standards that has been prepared as a reference guide to assist in the proper specification and use of GRP piping products. The primary focus is on EN and ISO standards. The work being done in CEN and ISO is closely linked, with ISO taking the lead in test method development and ISO test methods being referenced in EN standards. The work in CEN is conducted in CEN TC 155 WG14 and the work in ISO in ISO TC138 SC6. However, important standards are issued by other standards organizations and these will be also covered in the paper.

The Joint Research Project Alcoref “Certified forensic alcohol reference materials” is a multi-partner trans-national project within the targeted call “Research Potential” of the European Metrology Programme for Innovation and Research (EMPIR) launched in 2016. The European Commission has estimated that about one quarter of road traffic deaths are due to alcohol. The European status report on road safety of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe therefore stated that, among other measures, better legislation and enforcement of alcohol control is needed in several countries. In particular, the report demands that unrestricted access to alcohol breath testing, using breath analysers of equivalent and agreed standard, should be implemented throughout Europe. These high standards for tests, verification and calibration of breath alcohol analysers should meet some requirements of the recommendation R 126 defined by the International Organization of Legal Metrology (OIML) and European standards (EN 16280 and EN 15964). The specific objective of this project is to establish regional research and metrological capacity for the development of certified forensic alcohol reference materials for the law enforcement of drink-driving regulations.

Geometric measurements should be made at standard temperature 20°C, otherwise errors due to thermal expansion of workpieces and scales will occur. If measurements in serial production have to be made at different temperatures, DIN EN ISO 15530-3 describes a technique to correct the measurement error by referring to a calibrated reference workpiece. We have investigated this approach theoretically and experimentally and present some results.

The Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) that is part of a new Chapter 4 of MARPOL Annex 6 on Energy Efficiency Regulations is mandatory for new ships effective 1 January 2013. During the period from 2011 to the end of 2012, many of the major shipyards and shipping companies have voluntarily complied with the requirements of EEDI calculation and verification for their newbuilds. This paper outlines requirements of EEDI verification procedure and aspects of the verification method that are important to the calculation of EEDI reference speed from speed trials. This paper shows the outcome of the verification process that some new ships have gone through, the degree of compliance achieved and the experience gained in EEDI verification for three types of ships: tankers, bulk carriers and containerships. Sources of uncertainties associated with lack of complete information from sea trials are identified. Comparison of the attained and required EEDI for the three vessel types demonstrating the degree of compliance in Phases 0 and 1 are included. Paper published with permission.

Many railroads are installing new Communications Based Train Control (CBTC) systems and replacing their relay based signaling equipment with solid state equivalents. When installing new signaling and train control equipment on a property, laboratory Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) testing is an important part of the qualification process. Much of the new train control equipment is designed and manufactured overseas and Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) equipment is frequently incorporated into subsystem designs. It is, therefore, important that the railroads and system providers understand the railroad EMC requirements, and that the equipment being installed is tested to the appropriate standards in the laboratory in order to ensure that it will operate as intended in the field. The two main equipment level laboratory qualification testing standards referenced in railway signaling contract specifications are the Military Standard MIL STD-461F and the CENELEC (European Committee For Electrotechnical Standardization) Standard EN 50121 (IEC equivalent IEC 62236). Although the two standards are similar, there are some key differences that can lead to costly delays if not properly understood and addressed. This paper will provide a comparison of these two standards, including the different test methodologies, specific test procedures, and test limits.

Water absorptivity (WA) is one of the crucial parameters affecting the penetration of aggressive ions when concrete material is exposed to an aggressive environment and is closely linked with a depth of penetration of water under pressure into the concrete. Concrete used for prefabricated elements and structures as cesspits, manholes, pipe lines or parts of the wastewater treatment plants, has to meet a requirement for maximum water absorptivity of 6.0 wt. % in accordance with national and international standards. The article deals with a study of concretes’ water absorptivity of the pre-cast products for environmental purpose, where the exposure class XA (chemical attack) is required. The research is focused on reducing WA by using various modification of standard mix design (Portland cement, water, fine and coarse aggregate, plasticizer), e.g. by using different cement types, cementous supplementary additives, admixtures, finest aggregate particles or by reducing water/binder ratio. The concretes of various mix design modifications were compared with a reference concrete in relation to the standard. The economical and environmental aspects were also taken into consideration.

The influence of LWR coolant environment to the lifetime of materials has been discussed recent years. Nowadays the consideration of environmentally assisted fatigue is under consideration in Codes and Standards like ASME and the German KTA Rules (e.g. Standard No. 3201.2 and Standard No. 3201.4) by means of so called attention thresholds. Basic calculation procedures in terms of quantifying the influence of LWR coolant environment by the Fen correction factor were proposed by Higuchi and others and are given in NUREG/CR-6909. This paper deals with the application of the proposed assessment procedures of ANL and the application to plant conditions. Therefore conservative assessment procedures are introduced without assuming the knowledge of detailed stress and strain calculations or temperature transients. Additionally, detailed assessment procedures based on Finite-Element calculations, respecting in-service temperature measurements including thermal reference transients and complex operational loading conditions are carried out. Fatigue evaluation of a PWR primary circuit component is used in order to evaluate the influence of plant like conditions numerically. Conclusions regarding the practical application are drawn by means of comparing the ANL approach considering laboratory conditions, conservative assessment procedures for the determination of cumulative fatigue usage factors of plant components and detailed assessment procedures. Plant like loading conditions, complex component geometries, loading scenarios and reference temperature transients shall be taken into account. Practical issues like the determination of the mean temperature or the strain rate have to be considered adequately.

Abstract Degradation of pressure equipment is becoming an important issue due to increasing asset service time in process and power plants across Europe. For this reason it is important to assess life consumption of these assets to avoid catastrophic failures. Therefore it is necessary to refer to national/international normative on this subject. At present time the Italian thermotechnical committee (CTI) has drawn up a comprehensive set of norms which help the user to set up an inspection plan to investigate and assess degradation of pressure vessels and boilers. In the first part of this paper creep damage of Steam Generators is analyzed. For this purpose results of INAIL (Istituto Nazionale per l’ Assicurazione contro gli Infortuni sul Lavoro) database of steam boilers with 100’000 service hours or more is illustrated. Critical components are identified with reference to materials, geometry and operating parameters (pressure, temperature and time). At the end of the design life cycle, components of pressure equipment operated in creep regime must subjected to specific checks to estimate their residual life and the suitability for further use in safety conditions. The procedure allows to define reinspection intervals keeping acceptable the risk associated with the further use of the component related to creep even in evidence of defects in progress. The first check must be performed after 100,000 hours of effective use. Then, residual life evaluations must be repeated according to period of time that are defined as function of the results of all the checks carried out. In the second part of this paper boiler degradation is discussed with reference to NDT results and in-field inspection campaigns which are carried out traditionally after 45 years of service time, to minimize the risk of pressure components failures. In this paper results of different case studies are discussed with reference to degradation mechanisms and applicable standards.

The history of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Codes and Standards tells us that they were a response in 1915 by the ASME to reduce the numerous explosive failures in the 19th Century that resulted in personnel injury and death, in addition to extensive property loss. The number and scope of ASME Pressure Vessel and Piping Codes and Standards have been issued to cover various applications and operating conditions as the needs have been identified. In the 1970’s, the subcommittee on high pressure technology of the OAC (Operations Applications Components) committee of the ASME Pressure Vessel and Piping Division petitioned the ASME Codes and Standards Council to form a standards committee to prepare a High Pressure Systems Standard that addresses the establishment of a performance criteria and protection criteria for the pressure system. A risk based criterion was provided as a basis for determining if the system design application (siting) exceeds or needs improved reliability for the safety of personnel. The Section 6000 (as well as Sections 1000 to 5000) was begun with a draft outline in 1981 and approved in 2002. Section 6000 “Hazardous Release Protection” of the HPS standard provides a risk based criterion to assess the pressure system internal and external kinetic energy and degenerative hazards and permits a number of ways to lower risk to personnel and structures (e.g., redesign of the pressure system, protection (reduction of consequences), improved inspection (reduction of event probability), etc.). The types of hazards considered are: pressure waves, missiles, foundation motion, radiant heat/fireballs, fire, biological effects, chemical effects, and ionizing radiation. This paper briefly examines: the history of the development of Section 6000, the motivating safety issues, the scope and intent of the various paragraphs of the ASME Section 6000 of the High Pressure System (HPS) standard, its relationship to Sections 1000 to 5000 of the HPS, and some incidences of system failures which identify a need for guidance regarding tolerable risk, other guidelines, standard and code development, and some references that document its development.

Tubesheets are usually designed according to different national or international design codes. The great majority of these standards is based on Gardner’s theory, elaborated more than 60 years ago. On the other hand these pressure components are critical in heat exchanger design, because they are subject to characteristic service damages which require a correct dimensioning and appropriate inspections during service. This paper is aimed at comparing the different design methods, analyzing the theoretical background behind the rules. Main focus is made to the alternative design method contained in Annex J of the European Standard EN13445-3. With reference to the typical configuration of a fixed tubesheet exchanger with flanged connections, the results of the different design approaches are compared in order to find out the optimal configuration. Benchmark examples are carried out using a commercial computer code with reference to heat exchangers with the tubesheets welded to the shell and bolted to the channel. The results show the advantage of using Annex J which allows smaller thicknesses of the tubesheet in respect of the conventional approach used by TEMA, ASME Section VIII and EN 13445-3 clause 13.

This project summarizes the results from 2000–2020and evaluates the trueness andthequality control (QC) procedures of the ongoing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)and trace element measurements in Finlandrelating to Air Quality (AQ) Directive 2004/107/EC. The evaluation was focused on benzo(a)pyrene and other PAH compounds as well as arsenic, cadmium and nickel in PM10and deposition. Additionally, it included lead and other metals in PM10and deposition, gaseous mercury and mercury deposition, andbriefly other specificAQ measurements such as volatile organic compounds (VOC)and PM2.5chemical composition. This project was conducted by the National Reference Laboratory on air quality and thiswas the first time these measurements were assessed. A major part of the project was field and laboratory audits of the ongoing PAH and metal measurements. Other measurements were briefly evaluated through interviews and available literature. In addition, the national AQ database, the expertise of local measurement networks and related publications were utilised. In total, all theseven measurement networks performing PAH and metal measurements in 2019–2020took part in the audits. Eleven stations were audited while these measurements are performed at 22 AQ stations in Finland. For the large networks, one station was chosen to represent the performance of the network. The audits included also six laboratories performing the analysis of the collected samples. The audits revealed the compliance of the measurements with the AQ Decree 113/2017, Directive 2004/107/EC and Standards of the European Committee for Standardization(CEN). In addition, general information of the measurements, instruments and quality control procedures were gained. The results of the laboratory audits were confidential,but this report includes general findings, and the measurement networks were informed on the audit results with the permission of the participating laboratories. As a conclusion, the measurementmethodsusedwere mainly reference methods. Currently, all sampling methods were reference methods; however, before 2018 three networks used other methods that may have underestimated concentrations. Regarding these measurements, it should be noted the results are notcomparable with the reference method. Laboratory methods were reference methods excluding two cases, where the first was considered an acceptable equivalent method. For the other, a change to a reference method was strongly recommended and this realized in 2020. For some new measurements, the ongoing QC procedures were not yet fully established, and advice were given. Some networks used consultant for calibration and maintenance, and thus theywere not fully aware of the QC procedures. EN Standards were mostly followed. Main concerns were related to the checks of flow and calculation of measurement uncertainty, and suggestions for improvement were given. When the measurement networks implement the recommendations given inthe audits, it can be concluded that the EN Standards are adequately followed in the networks. In the ongoing sampling, clear factors risking the trueness of the result were not found. This applies also for the laboratory analyses in 2020. One network had concentrations above the target value, and theindicative measurementsshould be updated to fixed measurements.

This technical manual guides the user through the process of creating a data table for the submission of taxonomic and morphological information for plankton and other particles from images to a repository. Guidance is provided to produce documentation that should accompany the submission of plankton and other particle data to a repository, describes data collection and processing techniques, and outlines the creation of a data file. Field names include scientificName that represents the lowest level taxonomic classification (e.g., genus if not certain of species, family if not certain of genus) and scientificNameID, the unique identifier from a reference database such as the World Register of Marine Species or AlgaeBase. The data table described here includes the field names associatedMedia, scientificName/ scientificNameID for both automated and manual identification, biovolume, area_cross_section, length_representation and width_representation. Additional steps that instruct the user on how to format their data for a submission to the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS) are also included. Examples of documentation and data files are provided for the user to follow. The documentation requirements and data table format are approved by both NASA’s SeaWiFS Bio-optical Archive and Storage System (SeaBASS) and the National Science Foundation’s Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO).

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.