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1

Scherer, Jay, and Judy Davidson. "Promoting the ‘arriviste’ city: Producing neoliberal urban identity and communities of consumption during the Edmonton Oilers’ 2006 playoff campaign." International Review for the Sociology of Sport 46, no. 2 (November 18, 2010): 157–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1012690210387538.

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In the spring of 2006, the National Hockey League’s (NHL) Edmonton Oilers made a surprise run to the Stanley Cup final for the first time in 16 years. Predictably, hockey fans and media pundits responded enthusiastically to the one-time return to glory of their men’s professional hockey team. Drawing from threads of political economy, historical analysis, cultural studies and queer critique, we read selections of the print media coverage of the Oilers’ 2006 Cup run ‘against the grain’, juxtaposing the neoliberal strategies utilized to promote Edmonton with some of the lived realities in Alberta’s provincial capital. We argue that the discourses of community reiterated in the city’s main newspaper mobilize well-worn tropes of sport and civic boosterism through championship inspired communitas (Ingham and McDonald, 2003) with updated contemporary neoliberal twists. Specifically, the new stories contribute to the promotion of Edmonton as an arriviste city (Hiller, 2007): a mid-sized, intermediate city ready to shed its regional identity and compete on the national and indeed world stage; a city which continues to privilege affluent, white, masculinist elites, but does so in this early 21st-century iteration by incorporating and accommodating a variety of social identity-based groups. In particular, we focus on a discussion of how professional hockey and its print media representations can incorporate ethnic difference and queerness as civic elites strive to showcase Edmonton as a diverse and welcoming cosmopolitan centre.
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Davidson, Judy, and Michelle Helstein. "Queering the Gaze: Calgary Hockey Breasts, Dynamics of Desire, and Colonial Hauntings." Sociology of Sport Journal 33, no. 4 (December 2016): 282–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/ssj.2016-0011.

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This paper compares two hockey-related breast-flashing events that occurred in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The first was performed by Calgary Flames fans, the ‘Flamesgirls’, in the 2004 NHL Stanley Cup final, and the second flashing event occurred when members and fans of the Booby Orr hockey team participated in lifting their shirts and jerseys at a lesbian hockey tournament at the 2007 Outgames/Western Cup held in Calgary. We deploy an analysis of visual psychic economies to highlight psychoanalytic framings of masculinized and feminized subject positions in both heteronormative and lesbigay-coded sporting spaces. We suggest there is a queer twist to the Booby Orr flashing context, which we read as disruptive and potentially resistive. The paper ends by turning to Avery Gordon’s (1997) Ghostly Matters, to consider how even in its queer transgression, the Booby Orr flashing scene is simultaneously haunted and saturated by the absent presence of colonial technologies of visuality and sexual violence. It is argued that in this case, openings for transgressive gender dynamics might be imaginable—even as those logics themselves are disciplined and perhaps made possible through racialized colonial framings of appropriate desire.
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Wennberg, Richard. "Collision Frequency in Elite Hockey on North American versus International Size Rinks." Canadian Journal of Neurological Sciences / Journal Canadien des Sciences Neurologiques 31, no. 3 (August 2004): 373–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0317167100003474.

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Objective:Body impact or collision is the risk factor underlying all sports-related concussions. This study sought to determine whether collision rates in elite hockey differ between games played on North American size rinks as compared to games played on larger international size ice surfaces.Methods:Videotapes of games from the 2001 and 2002 National Hockey League Stanley Cup finals, World Junior championships and the 2002 Winter Olympics were analyzed, with all collisions counted and separated into various categories (player/player bodycheck, player/player into boards, player/boards, player/ice, head/stick, head/puck). Further subdivisions included collisions involving the head directly or indirectly. Twenty-two games were analyzed, 11 played on the small ice and 11 on the big ice.Results:Significantly more collisions of all types (in all categories and subdivisions within categories) were found to occur on the smaller North American ice surface (P value differences from 0.01 to 0.00001).Conclusion:The results of this study showed significantly fewer collisions of all types in elite hockey games played on the international size ice surface. The comparison groups studied here did differ in some aspects other than ice size and so replication of the findings with even more closely matched groups will be needed before definitive conclusions can be drawn. However, if these findings are replicable, it would suggest that a change to uniform usage of the larger international rinks, with no rule changes or other alterations in the game, could provide direct primary prevention to reduce the number of collisions, and, by extension, concussions, that occur in the sport.
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4

Trovato, Frank. "The Stanley Cup of Hockey and Suicide in Quebec, 1951-1992." Social Forces 77, no. 1 (September 1998): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3006011.

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5

Trovato, F. "The Stanley Cup of Hockey and Suicide in Quebec, 1951-1992." Social Forces 77, no. 1 (September 1, 1998): 105–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sf/77.1.105.

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6

Lorenz, Stacy L. "‘Our Victorias Victorious’: Media, Rivalry, and the 1896 Winnipeg-Montreal Stanley Cup Hockey Challenges." International Journal of the History of Sport 32, no. 17 (November 22, 2015): 1987–2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09523367.2015.1130036.

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Lorenz, Stacy L. "National Media Coverage and the Creation of a Canadian ‘Hockey World’: The Winnipeg-Montreal Stanley Cup Hockey Challenges, 1899–1903." International Journal of the History of Sport 32, no. 17 (November 22, 2015): 2012–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09523367.2015.1136620.

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8

Mukherjee, Swarup. "Traumatic Upper Limb Injuries During the Men's Field Hockey Junior World Cup 2009." Research in Sports Medicine 21, no. 4 (September 25, 2013): 318–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15438627.2013.825797.

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9

Mukherjee, Swarup. "Head and Face Injuries During the Men’s Field Hockey Junior World Cup 2009." American Journal of Sports Medicine 40, no. 3 (November 18, 2011): 686–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0363546511426697.

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10

Ray, Joseph, Jimmy Smith, and Brian Fowler. "The Effect of Regulatory Fit on Twitter Fandom in the National Hockey League Postseason." International Journal of Sport Communication 9, no. 4 (December 2016): 401–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/ijsc.2016-0088.

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Social media has become a powerful source of sports information. The uncertainty of outcomes of a sporting event is a contributing factor to fan satisfaction, which in turn affects fans’ social-media habits. If teams can determine specific factors that affect these social-media habits, marketing conclusions can be drawn. The current research followed the Twitter accounts of 4 National Hockey League (NHL) teams throughout the 2015 NHL postseason to observe changes in fan engagement. The results displayed increasing growth during each subsequent round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, which indicates an advantageous time to gain fans and develop brand loyalty. The current research showed that retweets and favorites earned on team tweets were shown to have the greatest correlation to followers gained. The growth demonstrated during the postseason provides sports organizations the opportunity to cultivate a strong and loyal following for their teams through strategic marketing initiatives.
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11

Lorenz, Stacy L. "‘The Product of the Town Itself’: Community Representation and the Stanley Cup Hockey Challenges of the Kenora Thistles, 1903–1907." International Journal of the History of Sport 32, no. 17 (November 22, 2015): 2078–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09523367.2016.1149167.

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12

Steeger, Gregory M., Johnathon L. Dulin, and Gerardo O. Gonzalez. "Winning and losing streaks in the National Hockey League: are teams experiencing momentum or are games a sequence of random events?" Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 17, no. 3 (May 7, 2021): 155–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2020-0077.

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Abstract The Saint Louis Blues were hot at the end of the 2018–2019 National Hockey League season, winning eleven games in a row in January and February, and eight of their last ten. They parlayed this momentum to their first Stanley Cup Championship in franchise history. Or did they? Did the series of wins at the end of the season give the Blues the momentum needed to reach the pinnacle of the sport on June 12th, or was the Blues’ path to victory the confluence of a series of random events that fell in their favor? In this paper we apply entropy as an unbiased measure to further refute the idea of momentum in sports. We show that game outcomes are not dependent on previous games’ outcomes and conclude that the theory of momentum, across the season, is a fallacy that should not affect behavior.
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13

Rizza, Caroline, Ângela Guimarães Pereira, and Paula Curvelo. "“Do-it-Yourself Justice”." International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 6, no. 4 (October 2014): 42–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijiscram.2014100104.

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In June 2011, during the ice hockey Stanley Cup, as the Vancouver Canucks were losing, riots started in downtown Vancouver. Social media were used to communicate between authorities and citizens, including the rioters. The media reporting on these events framed these communications within different narratives, which in turn raised ethical considerations. The authors identify and reflect upon ideas of justice, fairness, responsibility, accountability and integrity that arise in the media stories. In addition they investigate (1) the “institutional unpreparedness” of the Vancouver police department when receiving such quantity of material and dealing with new processes of inquiry such material requires; (2) the “unintended do-it-yourself-justice”: the shift from supporting crisis responders to social media vigilantes: citizens overruling authorities and enforcing justice on their own terms and by their own means through social media and; (3) the “unintended do-it-yourself-society” supported by the potential-of social media's use for prompting people to act.
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Arvanitidis, Tania. "Publication Bans in a Facebook Age: How Internet Vigilantes Have Challenged the Youth Criminal Justice Act’s “Secrecy Laws” Following the 2011 Vancouver Stanley Cup Riot." Canadian Graduate Journal of Sociology and Criminology 5, no. 1 (August 2, 2016): 18–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/cgjsc.v5i1.3741.

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On June 15th, 2011, a hockey riot occurred in Vancouver, British Columbia. This event is prominent in Canada’s history for, among other reasons, the unprecedented extent to which it was documented via photographs and video footage. The days that followed the riot saw much of this media documentation uploaded to social media platforms on the Internet, where Internet users worked together to identify and collectively “name and shame” those believed to have been involved in the disturbance. Several individuals targeted by these “Internet vigilantes” were young offenders whose identities are legally protected from publication under the Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA). This article examines the phenomenon of “Internet vigilantism”, and raises the issue of whether those provisions within the YCJA that prohibit the identification of youth remain relevant today, given the current difficulties in enforcing these provisions. Following an overview of these “secrecy provisions”, the phenomenon of Internet vigilantism is defined, and challenges posed by acts of Internet vigilantism are discussed. A “naming and shaming” Facebook group created for the purpose of identifying participants in the 2011 Vancouver riot is then looked to as a case study of Internet vigilantism in action. This article concludes with recommendations for how justice officials and social media outlets may modify current practices to better protect the safety and security of young offenders, and to minimize harmful instances of Internet vigilantism. Le 15 juin 2011, une émeute liée au hockey s’est déroulée à Vancouver, en Colombie-Britannique. Cet événement est important dans l’histoire du Canada, entre autres raisons, pour sa documentation sans précédent par l’entremise de photographies et de séquences vidéos. Les jours qui ont suivi l’émeute, une grande quantité d’information médiatique a été téléchargée sur les médias sociaux, où des internautes collaboraient afin d’identifier et de « nommer et pointer du doigt » ces personnes qui auraient participé aux troubles sociaux. Plusieurs individus ciblés par ces « justiciers de l’Internet » étaient de jeunes contrevenants dont l’identité est légalement protégée contre la publication en vertu de la Loi sur le système de justice pénale pour les adolescents (LSJPA). Cet article se penche sur le phénomène des « justiciers de l’Internet » et s’interroge sur la pertinence actuelle des dispositions dans le cadre de la LSJPA qui interdisent l’identification des jeunes, étant donné les difficultés présentes à faire respecter ces dispositions. Après un aperçu de ces « dispositions relatives au secret », le phénomène des justiciers de l’Internet est défini, et les défis posés par leurs actions sont discutés. Le groupe Facebook qui visait à « nommer et pointer du doigt » les participants de l’émeute de 2011 de Vancouver est présenté ici comme une étude de cas sur les justiciers de l’Internet. Cet article formule des recommandations sur la façon dont les fonctionnaires de la justice et les médias sociaux peuvent modifier les pratiques courantes afin de mieux protéger la sécurité des jeunes délinquants et réduire au minimum les effets nuisibles découlant des actions des justiciers de l’Internet.
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15

Demers, Simon. "Riding a probabilistic support vector machine to the Stanley Cup." Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 11, no. 4 (January 1, 2015). http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2014-0093.

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Abstract:The predictive performance of various team metrics is compared in the context of 105 best-of-seven national hockey league (NHL) playoff series that took place between 2008 and 2014 inclusively. This analysis provides renewed support for traditional box score statistics such as goal differential, especially in the form of Pythagorean expectations. A parsimonious relevance vector machine (RVM) learning approach is compared with the more common support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. Despite the potential of the RVM approach, the SVM algorithm proved to be superior in the context of hockey playoffs. The probabilistic SVM results are used to derive playoff performance expectations for NHL teams and identify playoff under-achievers and over-achievers. The results suggest that the Arizona Coyotes and the Carolina Hurricanes can both be considered Round 2 over-achievers while the Nashville Predators would be Round 2 under-achievers, even after accounting for several observable team performance metrics and playoff predictors. The Vancouver Canucks came the closest to qualify as Stanley Cup Finals under-achievers after they lost against the Boston Bruins in 2011. Overall, the results tend to support the idea that the NHL fields extremely competitive playoff teams, that chance or other intangible factors play a significant role in NHL playoff outcomes and that playoff upsets will continue to occur regularly.
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16

Shein, James, and Scott Kannry. "The Chicago Blackhawks: Greatest Sports Business Turnaround Ever?1." Kellogg School of Management Cases, January 20, 2017, 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/case.kellogg.2016.000347.

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This case explores the turnaround and corporate renewal of the Chicago Blackhawks professional hockey team, which transformed from one of the worst-run organizations in all of professional sports in 2007 to one that won the Stanley Cup (the National Hockey League championship trophy) in 2010. W. Rockwell “Rocky” Wirtz was faced with making critical decisions shortly after inheriting the team from his father, who was the individual most associated with the organization's decline. The team faced financial trouble and had narrowly avoided missing payroll; the previous customer relations strategy (which included refusing to televise home games or to conduct effective marketing) had resulted in significantly diminished brand value; and management and player personnel were devoid of effective leadership. At its nadir, the team was named “The Worst Franchise in Professional Sports” by ESPN in 2004. After assuming control, Rocky embarked on an ambitious corporate renewal strategy that included the following components: leadership: install a new management team with clear goals and creative ideas about how to turn around the organization; culture: reward players for accomplishing their goals and establish a performance-based culture; financial: seek new corporate sponsorships and increase ticket prices once the team established a winning record; and brand and marketing: send a clear message that the team was intent upon winning the championship and design a customer-focused marketing strategy.After analyzing the case, students should be able to: recommend strategic, financial, and operational changes needed to turn around the organization, and identify key leadership qualities that enable execution of a turnaround plan.
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17

Wagner, Cate, Erica Barr, Joseph Spada, Cole Joslin, and Paul M. Sommers. "Simeon Poisson and the Stanley Cup Finals." Journal of Student Research 9, no. 1 (January 2, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.47611/jsr.v9i1.1078.

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The National Hockey League is a professional ice hockey league in North America currently comprised of 31 teams. Their seasons culminate with the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The top sixteen teams (eight in each conference) qualify for the playoffs. The conference champions face off in the final round, known as the Stanley Cup Finals. The authors show that goals scored per game in the Stanley Cup Finals follow a Poisson distribution. Using the results of all 438 Stanley Cup Final games played since 1939 (when the Finals became a best-of-seven series), chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests show that the observed distribution of goals scored per game by series winners, series losers, and game losers closely approximate a Poisson theoretical model. The combined number of goals scored by both finalists and goals scored by game winners do not
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18

Campbell, Sandy. "That’s Not Hockey! by A. Poulin." Deakin Review of Children's Literature 8, no. 3 (March 12, 2019). http://dx.doi.org/10.20361/dr29415.

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Poulin, Andrée. That’s Not Hockey! Annick Press, 2018 This picture book tells the story of the famous hockey player, Jacques Plante, who loved hockey as a child, but had to improvise because he did not have a lot of hockey gear. The title phrase “That’s Not Hockey” appears when Jacques uses a ball because he didn’t have a puck, uses a tree root for a goalie stick and has goalie pads made out of potato sacks and wooden slats. Andrée Poulin uses the bold-face phrase, “Hey, that’s not hockey” throughout the book, as though it had been shouted at the young Plante to indicate that people were not happy with his changes to the game. This foreshadows the reaction to one of Plante’s greatest and most memorable contributions to the game—the introduction of the goalie mask. While Plante initially faced booing, teasing, and taunting from “reporters, players, goaltenders and crowds”, helmets and facemasks became standard equipment in hockey and players now have far fewer head and face injuries as a result. Félix Girard’s cartoon illustrations capture pond hockey in rural Quebec well. Girard also accurately portrays a bare-headed 1959 era hockey team hoisting the Stanley Cup. This is a good story about a Canadian hockey legend that also carries a lesson about continuing to work at making things better, even when most people seem to be against you. Highly Recommended: 4 stars out of 4 Reviewer: Sandy Campbell Sandy is a Health Sciences Librarian at the University of Alberta, who has written hundreds of book reviews across many disciplines. Sandy thinks that sharing books with children is one of the greatest gifts anyone can give.
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19

Harrison, Karey. "Building Resilient Communities." M/C Journal 16, no. 5 (August 24, 2013). http://dx.doi.org/10.5204/mcj.716.

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This paper will compare the metaphoric structuring of the ecological concept of resilience—with its roots in Holling's 1973 paper; with psychological concepts of resilience which followed from research—such as Werner, Bierman, and French and Garmezy and Streitman) published in the early 1970s. This metaphoric analysis will expose the difference between complex adaptive systems models of resilience in ecology and studies related to resilience in relation to climate change; compared with the individualism of linear equilibrium models of resilience which have dominated discussions of resilience in psychology and economics. By examining the ontological commitments of these competing metaphors, I will show that the individualistic concept of resilience which dominates psychological discussions of resilience is incompatible with the ontological commitments of ecological concepts of resilience. Because the ontological commitments of the concepts of ecological resilience on the one hand, and psychological resilience on the other, are so at odds with one another, it is important to be clear which concept of resilience is being evaluated for its adequacy as a concept. Having clearly distinguished these competing metaphors and their ontological commitments, this paper will show that it is the complex adaptive systems model of resilience from ecology, not the individualist concept of psychological resilience, that has been utilised by both the academic discussions of adaptation to climate change, and the operationalisation of the concept of resilience by social movements like the permaculture, ecovillage, and Transition Towns movements. Ontological Metaphors My analysis of ontological metaphors draws on insights from Kuhn's (114) account of gestalt perception in scientific paradigm shifts; the centrality of the role of concrete analogies in scientific reasoning (Masterman 77); and the theorisation of ontological metaphors in cognitive linguistics (Gärdenfors). Figure 1: Object Ontological commitments reflect the shared beliefs within a community about the sorts of things that exist. Our beliefs about what exists are shaped by our sensory and motor interactions with objects in the physical world. Physical objects have boundaries and surfaces that separate the object from not-the-object. Objects have insides and outsides, and can be described in terms of more-or-less fixed and stable “objective” properties. A prototypical example of an “object” is a “container”, like the example shown in Figure 1. Ontological metaphors allow us to conceive of “things” which are not objects as if they were objects by picking “out parts of our experience and treat them as [if they were] discrete entities or substances of a uniform kind” (Lakoff and Johnson 25). We use ontological metaphors when we imagine a boundary around a collection of things, such as the members of a team or trees in a forest, and conceive of them as being in a container (Langacker 191–97). We can then think of “things” like a team or forest as if they were a single entity. We can also understand processes and activities as if they were things with boundaries. Whether or not we characterise some aspect of our experience as a noun (a bounded entity) or as a verb (a process that occurs over time) is not determined by the nature of things in themselves, but by our understanding and interpretation of our experience (Langacker 233). In this paper I employ a technique that involves examining the details of “concrete images” from the source domains for metaphors employed in the social sciences to expose for analysis their ontological commitments (Harrison, “Politics” 215; Harrison, “Economics” 7). By examining the ontological metaphors that structure the resilience literature I will show how different conceptions of resilience reflect different beliefs and commitments about the sorts of “things” there are in the world, and hence how we can study and understand these “things.” Engineering Metaphors In his discussion of engineering resilience, Holling (“Engineering Vs. Ecological” 33) argues that this conception is the “foundation for economic theory”, and defined in terms of “resistance to disturbance and the speed of return to the equilibrium” or steady state of the system. Whereas Holling takes his original example of the use of the engineering concept of resilience from economics, Pendall, Foster, & Cowell (72), and Martin-Breen and Anderies (6) identify it as the concept of resilience that dominates the field of psychology. They take the stress loading of bridges to be the engineering source for the metaphor. Figure 2: Pogo stick animation (Source: Blacklemon 67, CC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pogoanim.gif). In order to understand this metaphor, we need to examine the characteristics of the source domain for the metaphor. A bridge can be “under tension, compression or both forces at the same time [and] experiences what engineers define as stress” (Matthews 3). In order to resist these forces, bridges need to be constructed of material which “behave much like a spring” that “strains elastically (deforms temporarily and returns to its original shape after a load has been removed) under a given stress” (Gordon 52; cited in Matthews). The pogostick shown in Figure 2 illustrates how a spring returns to its original size and configuration once the load or stress is removed. WGBH Educational Foundation provides links to simple diagrams that illustrate the different stresses the three main designs of bridges are subject to, and if you compare Computers & Engineering's with Gibbs and Bourne's harmonic spring animation you can see how both a bridge under live load and the pogostick in Figure 2 oscillate just like an harmonic spring. Subject to the elastic limits of the material, the deformation of a spring is proportional to the stress or load applied. According to the “modern theory of elasticity [...] it [is] possible to deduce the relation between strain and stress for complex objects in terms of intrinsic properties of the materials it is made of” (“Hooke’s Law”). When psychological resilience is characterised in terms of “properties of individuals [that] are identified in isolation” (Martin-Breen and Anderies 12); and in terms of “behaviours and attributes [of individuals] that allow people to get along with one another and to succeed socially” (Pendall, Foster, and Cowell 72), they are reflecting this engineering focus on the properties of materials. Martin-Breen and Anderies (42) argue that “the Engineering Resilience framework” has been informed by ontological metaphors which treat “an ecosystem, person, city, government, bridge, [or] society” as if it were an object—“a unified whole”. Because this concept of resilience treats individuals as “objects,” it leads researchers to look for the properties or characteristics of the “materials” which individuals are “made of”, which are either elastic and allow them to “bounce” or “spring” back after stress; or are fragile and brittle and break under load. Similarly, the Designers Institute (DINZ), in its conference on “Our brittle society,” shows it is following the engineering resilience approach when it conceives of a city or society as an object which is made of materials which are either “strong and flexible” or “brittle and fragile”. While Holling characterises economic theory in terms of this engineering metaphor, it is in fact chemistry and the kinetic theory of gases that provides the source domain for the ontological metaphor which structures both static and dynamic equilibrium models within neo-classical economics (Smith and Foley; Mirowski). However, while springs are usually made out of metals, they can be made out of any “material [that] has the required combination of rigidity and elasticity,” such as plastic, and even wood (in a bow) (“Spring (device)”). Gas under pressure turns out to behave the same as other springs or elastic materials do under load. Because both the economic metaphor based on equilibrium theory of gases and the engineering analysis of bridges under load can both be subsumed under spring theory, we can treat both the economic (gas) metaphor and the engineering (bridge) metaphor as minor variations of a single overarching (spring) metaphor. Complex Systems Metaphors Holling (“Resilience & Stability” 13–15) critiques equilibrium models, arguing that non-deterministic, complex, non-equilibrium and multi-equilibrium ecological systems do not satisfy the conditions for application of equilibrium models. Holling argues that unlike the single equilibrium modelled by engineering resilience, complex adaptive systems (CAS) may have multi or no equilibrium states, and be non-linear and non-deterministic. Walker and Salt follow Holling by calling for recognition of the “dynamic complexity of the real world” (8), and that “these [real world] systems are complex adaptive systems” (11). Martin-Breen and Anderies (7) identify the key difference between “systems” and “complex adaptive systems” resilience as adaptive capacity, which like Walker and Salt (xiii), they define as the capacity to maintain function, even if system structures change or fail. The “engineering” concept of resilience focuses on the (elastic) properties of materials and uses language associated with elastic springs. This “spring” metaphor emphasises the property of individual components. In contrast, ecological concepts of resilience examine interactions between elements, and the state of the system in a multi-dimensional phase space. This systems approach shows that the complex behaviour of a system depends at least as much on the relationships between elements. These relationships can lead to “emergent” properties which cannot be reduced to the properties of the parts of the system. To explain these relationships and connections, ecologists and climate scientists use language and images associated with landscapes such as 2-D cross-sections and 3-D topology (Holling, “Resilience & Stability” 20; Pendall, Foster, and Cowell 74). Figure 3 is based on an image used by Walker, Holling, Carpenter and Kinzig (fig. 1b) to represent possible states of ecological systems. The “basins” in the image rely on our understanding of gravitational forces operating in a 3-D space to model “equilibrium” states in which the system, like the “ball” in the “basin”, will tend to settle. Figure 3: (based on Langston; in Walker et al. fig. 1b) – Tipping Point Bifurcation Wasdell (“Feedback” fig. 4) adapted this image to represent possible climate states and explain the concept of “tipping points” in complex systems. I have added the red balls (a, b, and c to replace the one black ball (b) in the original which represented the state of the system), the red lines which indicate the path of the ball/system, and the black x-y axis, in order to discuss the image. Wasdell (“Feedback Dynamics” slide 22) takes the left basin to represents “the variable, near-equilibrium, but contained dynamics of the [current] glacial/interglacial period”. As a result of rising GHG levels, the climate system absorbs more energy (mostly as heat). This energy can force the system into a different, hotter, state, less amenable to life as we know it. This is shown in Figure 3 by the system (represented as the red ball a) rising up the left basin (point b). From the perspective of the gravitational representation in Figure 3, the extra energy in the basin operates like the rotation in a Gravitron amusement ride, where centrifugal force pushes riders up the sides of the ride. If there is enough energy added to the climate system it could rise up and jump over the ridge/tipping point separating the current climate state into the “hot earth” basin shown on the right. Once the system falls into the right basin, it may be stuck near point c, and due to reinforcing feedbacks have difficulty escaping this new “equilibrium” state. Figure 4 represents a 2-D cross-section of the 3-D landscape shown in Figure 3. This cross-section shows how rising temperature and greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in a multi-equilibrium climate topology can lead to the climate crossing a tipping point and shifting from state a to state c. Figure 4: Topographic cross-section of possible climate states (derived from Wasdell, “Feedback” 26 CC). As Holling (“Resilience & Stability”) warns, a less “desirable” state, such as population collapse or extinction, may be more “resilient”, in the engineering sense, than a more desirable state. Wasdell (“Feedback Dynamics” slide 22) warns that the climate forcing as a result of human induced GHG emissions is in fact pushing the system “far away from equilibrium, passed the tipping point, and into the hot-earth scenario”. In previous episodes of extreme radiative forcing in the past, this “disturbance has then been amplified by powerful feedback dynamics not active in the near-equilibrium state [… and] have typically resulted in the loss of about 90% of life on earth.” An essential element of system dynamics is the existence of (delayed) reinforcing and balancing causal feedback loops, such as the ones illustrated in Figure 5. Figure 5: Pre/Predator model (Bellinger CC-BY-SA) In the case of Figure 5, the feedback loops illustrate the relationship between rabbit population increasing, then foxes feeding on the rabbits, keeping the rabbit population within the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. Fox predation prevents rabbit over-population and consequent starvation of rabbits. The reciprocal interaction of the elements of a system leads to unpredictable nonlinearity in “even seemingly simple systems” (“System Dynamics”). The climate system is subject to both positive and negative feedback loops. If the area of ice cover increases, more heat is reflected back into space, creating a positive feedback loop, reinforcing cooling. Whereas, as the arctic ice melts, as it is doing at present (Barber), heat previously reflected back into space is absorbed by now exposed water, increasing the rate of warming. Where negative feedback (system damping) dominates, the cup-shaped equilibrium is stable and system behaviour returns to base when subject to disturbance. [...]The impact of extreme events, however, indicates limits to the stable equilibrium. At one point cooling feedback loops overwhelmed the homeostasis, precipitating the "snowball earth" effect. […] Massive release of CO2 as a result of major volcanic activity […] set off positive feedback loops, precipitating runaway global warming and eliminating most life forms at the end of the Permian period. (Wasdell, “Topological”) Martin-Breen and Anderies (53–54), following Walker and Salt, identify four key factors for systems (ecological) resilience in nonlinear, non-deterministic (complex adaptive) systems: regulatory (balancing) feedback mechanisms, where increase in one element is kept in check by another element; modularity, where failure in one part of the system will not cascade into total systems failure; functional redundancy, where more than one element performs every essential function; and, self-organising capacity, rather than central control ensures the system continues without the need for “leadership”. Transition Towns as a Resilience Movement The Transition Town (TT) movement draws on systems modelling of both climate change and of Limits to Growth (Meadows et al.). TT takes seriously Limits to Growth modelling that showed that without constraints in population and consumption the world faces systems collapse by the middle of this century. It recommends community action to build as much capacity as possible to “maintain existence of function”—Holling's (“Engineering vs. Ecological” 33) definition of ecological resilience—in the face of failing economic, political and environmental systems. The Transition Network provides a template for communities to follow to “rebuild resilience and reduce CO2 emissions”. Rob Hopkins, the movements founder, explicitly identifies ecological resilience as its central concept (Transition Handbook 6). The idea for the movement grew out of a project by (2nd year students) completed for Hopkins at the Kinsale Further Education College. According to Hopkins (“Kinsale”), this project was inspired by Holmgren’s Permaculture principles and Heinberg's book on adapting to life after peak oil. Permaculture (permanent agriculture) is a design system for creating agricultural systems modelled on the diversity, stability, and resilience of natural ecosystems (Mollison ix; Holmgren xix). Permaculture draws its scientific foundations from systems ecology (Holmgren xxv). Following CAS theory, Mollison (33) defines stability as “self-regulation”, rather than “climax” or a single equilibrium state, and recommends “diversity of beneficial functional connections” (32) rather than diversity of isolated elements. Permaculture understands resilience in the ecological, rather than the engineering sense. The Transition Handbook (17) “explores the issues of peak oil and climate change, and how when looked at together, we need to be focusing on the rebuilding of resilience as well as cutting carbon emissions. It argues that the focus of our lives will become increasingly local and small scale as we come to terms with the real implications of the energy crisis we are heading into.” The Transition Towns movement incorporate each of the four systems resilience factors, listed at the end of the previous section, into its template for building resilient communities (Hopkins, Transition Handbook 55–6). Many of its recommendations build “modularity” and “self-organising”, such as encouraging communities to build “local food systems, [and] local investment models”. Hopkins argues that in a “more localised system” feedback loops are tighter, and the “results of our actions are more obvious”. TT training exercises include awareness raising for sensitivity to networks of (actual or potential) ecological, social and economic relationships (Hopkins, Transition Handbook 60–1). TT promotes diversity of local production and economic activities in order to increase “diversity of functions” and “diversity of responses to challenges.” Heinberg (8) wrote the forward to the 2008 edition of the Transition Handbook, after speaking at a TotnesTransition Town meeting. Heinberg is now a senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute (PCI), which was established in 2003 to “provide […] the resources needed to understand and respond to the interrelated economic, energy, environmental, and equity crises that define the 21st century [… in] a world of resilient communities and re-localized economies that thrive within ecological bounds” (PCI, “About”), of the sort envisioned by the Limits to Growth model discussed in the previous section. Given the overlapping goals of PCI and Transition Towns, it is not surprising that Rob Hopkins is now a Fellow of PCI and regular contributor to Resilience, and there are close ties between the two organisations. Resilience, which until 2012 was published as the Energy Bulletin, is run by the Post Carbon Institute (PCI). Like Transition Towns, Resilience aims to build “community resilience in a world of multiple emerging challenges: the decline of cheap energy, the depletion of critical resources like water, complex environmental crises like climate change and biodiversity loss, and the social and economic issues which are linked to these. […] It has [its] roots in systems theory” (PCI, “About Resilience”). Resilience.org says it follows the interpretation of Resilience Alliance (RA) Program Director Brian Walker and science writer David Salt's (xiii) ecological definition of resilience as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure.“ Conclusion This paper has analysed the ontological metaphors structuring competing conceptions of resilience. The engineering resilience metaphor dominates in psychological resilience research, but is not adequate for understanding resilience in complex adaptive systems. Ecological resilience, on the other hand, dominates in environmental and climate change research, and is the model of resilience that has been incorporated into the global permaculture and Transition Towns movements. References 2nd year students. Kinsale 2021: An Energy Descent Action Plan. Kinsale, Cork, Ireland: Kinsale Further Education College, 2005. 16 Aug. 2013 ‹http://transitionculture.org/wp-content/uploads/KinsaleEnergyDescentActionPlan.pdf>. Barber, Elizabeth. “Arctic Ice Continues to Thin, and Thin, European Satellite Reveals.” Christian Science Monitor 11 Sep. 2013. 25 Sep. 2013 ‹http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2013/0911/Arctic-ice-continues-to-thin-and-thin-European-satellite-reveals>. 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