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1

Looman, Jan, and Jeffrey Abracen. "The Static-99R." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 57, no. 7 (April 24, 2012): 888–907. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x12443657.

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2

Gonçalves, Leonel C., Juliane Gerth, Astrid Rossegger, Thomas Noll, and Jérôme Endrass. "Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in Switzerland." Sexual Abuse 32, no. 2 (January 9, 2019): 203–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063218821117.

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This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.
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3

Lee, Seung C., and R. Karl Hanson. "Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California." Criminal Justice and Behavior 44, no. 9 (June 7, 2017): 1125–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854817711477.

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Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.
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Brouillette-Alarie, Sébastien, Kelly M. Babchishin, R. Karl Hanson, and Leslie-Maaike Helmus. "Latent Constructs of the Static-99R and Static-2002R." Assessment 23, no. 1 (January 22, 2015): 96–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1073191114568114.

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5

Elwood, Richard W., Sharon M. Kelley, and James C. Mundt. "The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 61, no. 14 (January 11, 2016): 1593–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x15623803.

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The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.
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6

Leguízamo, Alejandro, Seung C. Lee, Elizabeth L. Jeglic, and Cynthia Calkins. "Utility of the Static-99 and Static-99R With Latino Sex Offenders." Sexual Abuse 29, no. 8 (December 16, 2015): 765–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215618377.

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The predictive validity of the Static-99 measures with ethnic minorities in the United States has only recently been assessed with mixed results. We assessed the predictive validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R with a sample of Latino sex offenders ( N = 483) as well as with two subsamples (U.S.-born, including Puerto Rico, and non-U.S.-born). The overall sexual recidivism rate was very low (1.9%). Both the Static-99 measures were able to predict sexual recidivism for offenders born in the United States and Puerto Rico, but neither was effective in doing so for other Latino immigrants. Calibration analyses ( N = 303) of the Static-99R were consistent with the literature and provided support for the potential use of the measure with Latinos born in the United States and Puerto Rico. These findings and their implications are discussed as they pertain to the assessment of Latino sex offenders.
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7

Brouillette-Alarie, Sébastien, and Jean Proulx. "Predictive validity of the Static-99R and its dimensions." Journal of Sexual Aggression 19, no. 3 (November 2013): 311–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13552600.2012.747630.

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8

Delforterie, Monique, Jan Willem van den Berg, Betto Bolt, Teunis van den Hazel, Leam Craig, and Robert Didden. "Comparing STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007 between persons with and without intellectual disabilities." Journal of Intellectual Disabilities and Offending Behaviour 10, no. 3 (August 29, 2019): 58–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jidob-01-2019-0003.

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Purpose While there is a significant proportion of people with a mild intellectual disability (MID) or borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) who commit sexual offenses, little research has focused on the risk factors for sexual recidivism in people with MID-BIF. The purpose of this paper is to compare the scores on the STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007 between persons with sexual offense histories with and without MID-BIF. Design/methodology/approach Data using the STATIC-99R and STABLE-2007 were collected in 85 male patients divided into an MID-BIF group (IQ 50–85, n=50) and comparison group (IQ>95, n=35). Findings The MID-BIF group and comparison group did not differ significantly on the static risk factors and total score of the STATIC-99R. However, of the 13 dynamic risk factors of the STABLE-2007, the MID-BIF group scored significantly higher on the items Impulsive acts, Poor problem solving skills and Lack of concern for others, while the comparison group scored significantly higher on the item Deviant sexual preference. Originality/value The higher score on a number of dynamic risk factors for patients with MID-BIF could partly be explained by the characteristics associated with MID-BIF. Although dynamic criminogenic risk factors which are usually identified as targets for treatment appear the same for people with and without MID-BIF who commit sexual offenses, adaptations to the modality of treatment will still need to be made for people with MID-BIF.
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9

Hanson, R. Karl, David Thornton, Leslie-Maaike Helmus, and Kelly M. Babchishin. "What Sexual Recidivism Rates Are Associated With Static-99R and Static-2002R Scores?" Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment 28, no. 3 (March 25, 2015): 218–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215574710.

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10

DeClue, Gregory, and Denis L. Zavodny. "Forensic use of the Static-99R: Part 4. Risk communication." Journal of Threat Assessment and Management 1, no. 3 (September 2014): 145–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tam0000017.

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11

Gallo, Alessandra, Jeffrey Abracen, Jan Looman, Elizabeth Jeglic, and Robert Dickey. "The Use of Leuprolide Acetate in the Management of High-Risk Sex Offenders." Sexual Abuse 31, no. 8 (July 26, 2018): 930–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063218791176.

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The present study investigates whether leuprolide acetate (Lupron) adds to the efficacy of traditional sex offender treatment. A group of sex offenders receiving both Lupron and cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT; n = 25) were compared with a group of sex offenders receiving only CBT ( n = 22). Treated subjects were compared with norms available with reference to the Static-99R, as well as compared with a sample of untreated, nonsexual violent offenders ( n = 81), to provide baseline data regarding risk of violent recidivism. Results indicated that subjects receiving Lupron were at significantly higher risk of recidivism and significantly more likely to be diagnosed with a paraphilia than subjects receiving only CBT, a priori. Both treated groups of sexual offenders recidivated at substantially lower rates than predicted by the Static-99R. Currently, this study represents the only, long-term outcome study on Lupron administration using officially recorded recidivism as the primary dependent measure.
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12

Reeves, Sophie G., James R. P. Ogloff, and Melanie Simmons. "The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?" Sexual Abuse 30, no. 8 (June 9, 2017): 887–907. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063217712216.

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The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.
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13

Varela, Jorge G., Marcus T. Boccaccini, Daniel C. Murrie, Jennifer D. Caperton, and Ernie Gonzalez. "Do the Static-99 and Static-99R Perform Similarly for White, Black, and Latino Sexual Offenders?" International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 12, no. 4 (October 2013): 231–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2013.846950.

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14

Brouillette-Alarie, Sébastien, Jean Proulx, and R. Karl Hanson. "Three Central Dimensions of Sexual Recidivism Risk: Understanding the Latent Constructs of Static-99R and Static-2002R." Sexual Abuse 30, no. 6 (February 9, 2017): 676–704. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063217691965.

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The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors. Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets, or evaluate change. However, researchers using latent variable models have identified three dimensions in static actuarial scales for sexual offenders: Sexual Criminality, General Criminality, and a third dimension centered on young age and aggression to strangers. In the current study, we examined the convergent and predictive validity of these dimensions, using psychological features of the offender (e.g., antisocial traits, hypersexuality) and recidivism outcomes. Results indicated that (a) Sexual Criminality was related to dysregulation of sexuality toward atypical objects, without intent to harm; (b) General Criminality was related to antisocial traits; and (c) Youthful Stranger Aggression was related to a clear intent to harm the victim. All three dimensions predicted sexual recidivism, although only General Criminality and Youthful Stranger Aggression predicted nonsexual recidivism. These results indicate that risk tools for sexual violence are multidimensional, and support a shift from an exclusive focus on total scores to consideration of subscales measuring psychologically meaningful constructs.
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15

Zgoba, Kristen M., Michael Miner, Jill Levenson, Raymond Knight, Elizabeth Letourneau, and David Thornton. "The Adam Walsh Act." Sexual Abuse 28, no. 8 (August 2, 2016): 722–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215569543.

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This study was designed to compare the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments and existing state classification schemes in their respective abilities to identify sex offenders at high risk to re-offend. Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four states were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders, and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing state tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. As well, we examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half score low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied.
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16

Myer, Andrew J. "Examining the Predictive Validity of the Static-99R on Native American Sex Offenders." Justice Evaluation Journal 2, no. 2 (July 3, 2019): 181–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24751979.2019.1636614.

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17

Helmus, Leslie, R. Karl Hanson, David Thornton, Kelly M. Babchishin, and Andrew J. R. Harris. "Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples." Criminal Justice and Behavior 39, no. 9 (May 21, 2012): 1148–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854812443648.

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18

Stephens, Skye, Jennifer E. Newman, James M. Cantor, and Michael C. Seto. "The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning." Journal of Sexual Aggression 24, no. 1 (September 28, 2017): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13552600.2017.1372936.

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19

Helmus, Leslie-Maaike, and David Thornton. "Stability And Predictive And Incremental Accuracy Of The Individual Items Of Static-99r And Static-2002r In Predicting Sexual Recidivism." Criminal Justice and Behavior 42, no. 9 (February 12, 2015): 917–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854814568891.

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20

Varela, Jorge G., Marcus T. Boccaccini, Veronica A. Cuervo, Daniel C. Murrie, and John W. Clark. "Same score, different message: Perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format." Law and Human Behavior 38, no. 5 (October 2014): 418–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000073.

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21

Chevalier, Caroline S., Marcus T. Boccaccini, Daniel C. Murrie, and Jorge G. Varela. "Static-99R reporting practices in sexually violent predator cases: Does norm selection reflect adversarial allegiance?" Law and Human Behavior 39, no. 3 (June 2015): 209–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000114.

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22

Olver, Mark E., Justina N. Sowden, Drew A. Kingston, Terry P. Nicholaichuk, Audrey Gordon, Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson, and Stephen C. P. Wong. "Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders." Sexual Abuse 30, no. 3 (May 17, 2016): 254–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063216649594.

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The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.
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23

Looman, Jan, Nicola A. C. Morphett, and Jeff Abracen. "Does Consideration of Psychopathy and Sexual Deviance Add to the Predictive Validity of the Static-99R?" International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 57, no. 8 (May 28, 2012): 939–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x12444839.

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24

Hanson, R. Karl, Kelly M. Babchishin, L. Maaike Helmus, David Thornton, and Amy Phenix. "Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools." Psychological Assessment 29, no. 5 (May 2017): 582–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pas0000371.

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25

Lee, Seung C., R. Karl Hanson, Cynthia Calkins, and Elizabeth Jeglic. "Paraphilia and Antisociality: Motivations for Sexual Offending May Differ for American Whites and Blacks." Sexual Abuse 32, no. 3 (February 2, 2019): 335–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063219828779.

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There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites ( n =797) and Blacks ( n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displayed higher antisociality. Despite the differences, however, the Static-99R, sexual recidivism risk tool, predicted equally well for both racial groups: Whites (area under the curve [AUC] = .76) and Blacks (AUC = .78). The findings suggest that there may be opportunities to improve treatment for the individuals at risk for sexual offending by tailoring interventions to the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of Whites and Blacks.
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26

Kelley, Sharon M., Gina Ambroziak, David Thornton, and Robert M. Barahal. "How Do Professionals Assess Sexual Recidivism Risk? An Updated Survey of Practices." Sexual Abuse 32, no. 1 (September 23, 2018): 3–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063218800474.

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Forensic evaluators may be assisted by comparing their use of instruments with that of their peers. This article reports the results of a 2017 survey of instrument use by forensic evaluators carrying out sexual recidivism risk assessments. Results are compared with a similar survey carried out in 2013. Analysis focuses primarily on adoption of more recently developed instruments and norms, and on assessment of criminogenic needs and protective factors, and secondarily, on exploring factors related to differences in evaluator practice. Findings indicate that most evaluators have now adopted modern actuarial instruments, with the Static-99R and Static-2002R being the most commonly used. Assessment of criminogenic needs is now common, with the STABLE-2007 being the most frequently used instrument. Evaluators are also increasingly likely to consider protective factors. While a majority of evaluators uses actuarial instruments, a substantial minority employs Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ) instruments. Few factors discriminated patterns of instrument use.
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27

Cartwright, Joel K., Sarah L. Desmarais, Justin Hazel, Travis Griffith, and Allen Azizian. "Predictive validity of HCR-20, START, and static-99R assessments in predicting institutional aggression among sexual offenders." Law and Human Behavior 42, no. 1 (February 2018): 13–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000263.

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28

Lee, Seung C., and R. Karl Hanson. "Updated 5-year and new 10-year sexual recidivism rate norms for Static-99R with routine/complete samples." Law and Human Behavior 45, no. 1 (February 2021): 24–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000436.

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29

Lee, Seung C., R. Karl Hanson, and Julie Blais. "Predictive accuracy of the Static-99R and Static-2002R risk tools for identifying Indigenous and White individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism in Canada." Canadian Psychology/Psychologie canadienne 61, no. 1 (February 2020): 42–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/cap0000182.

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30

Elwood, Richard W. "Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 62, no. 7 (June 7, 2017): 2063–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x17711880.

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Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual’s risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales. However, critics contend that altering rates from actuarial scales degrades their predictive validity. This article makes the case for extrapolating risk for time of exposure and for evidence-based external risk factors. It proposes using odds ratios (ORs) from case-control studies to adjust predictions from follow-up cohort studies. Finally, it shows how evaluators can apply ORs and their margins of error to sex offender risk assessment.
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31

Gardner, Brett O., Marcus T. Boccaccini, and Daniel C. Murrie. "Which PCL-R Scores Best Predict Forensic Clinicians’ Opinions of Offender Risk?" Criminal Justice and Behavior 45, no. 9 (July 30, 2018): 1404–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854818789974.

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The Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) is widely used in assessments of violence risk and sexual recidivism risk. Research consistently reveals Factor 2 (Lifestyle/Antisocial Behavior) scores are more reliable and predictive than Factor 1 (Interpersonal/Affective) scores in assessing recidivism risk. Nevertheless, interpersonal-affective offender traits more strongly influence sentencing decisions among mock jurors. We examined PCL-R and Static-99R scores evaluators ( N = 99) assigned to three sexual offenders, and the association between these scores and evaluators’ ratings of offender risk (i.e., likelihood of reoffense). Findings suggest that risk ratings were more strongly associated with the personality features assessed by Factor 1 scores than with the antisocial behaviors assessed by Factor 2 scores, even though research reveals the latter are more relevant to risk. Specifically, evaluator perceptions of interpersonal traits (i.e., Facet 1) emerged as the primary determinant of risk judgments, whereas offenders’ antisocial histories (i.e., Facet 4) were not associated with any judgments.
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32

Seto, Michael C., Jeffrey C. Sandler, and Naomi J. Freeman. "The Revised Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests: Predictive and Concurrent Validity." Sexual Abuse 29, no. 7 (December 16, 2015): 636–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215618375.

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This study examined the predictive and concurrent validity of the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI) and its recent revision (SSPI-2), using a large sample of 2,416 sex offenders deemed not to be in need of civil management in New York State. Both SSPI and SSPI-2 scores were significantly and positively related to sexual rearrest, but the SSPI-2 provided greater discrimination in rearrest within 5 years across possible scores. Neither measure significantly added to the prediction of sexual rearrest provided by the Static-99R. We also found evidence of concurrent validity, as both measures were positively and significantly correlated with clinician ratings of sexual preoccupation, emotional identification with children, and sexual offense–related cognitions (convergent validity), but were not significantly related to clinician ratings of self-regulation problems, noncompliance with supervision, or antisocial personality (divergent validity). Overall, the results suggest that the SSPI-2 is a specific and useful screening measure of pedophilic sexual interests among sex offenders with child victims.
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33

Boccaccini, Marcus T., Caroline S. Chevalier, Daniel C. Murrie, and Jorge G. Varela. "Psychopathy Checklist–Revised Use and Reporting Practices in Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations." Sexual Abuse 29, no. 6 (October 30, 2015): 592–614. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063215612443.

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We surveyed evaluators who conduct sexually violent predator evaluations ( N = 95) regarding the frequency with which they use the Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R), their rationale for use, and scoring practices. Findings suggest that evaluators use the PCL-R in sexually violent predator cases because of its perceived versatility, providing information about both mental disorder and risk. Several findings suggested gaps between research and routine practice. For example, relatively few evaluators reported providing the factor and facet scores that may be the strongest predictors of future offending, and many assessed the combination of PCL-R scores and sexual deviance using deviance measures (e.g., paraphilia diagnoses) that have not been examined in available studies. There was evidence of adversarial allegiance in PCL-R score interpretation, as well as a “bias blind spot” in PCL-R and other risk measure (Static-99R) scoring; evaluators tended to acknowledge the possibility of bias in other evaluators but not in themselves. Findings suggest the need for evaluators to carefully consider the extent to which their practices are consistent with emerging research and to be attuned to the possibility that working in adversarial settings may influence their scoring and interpretation practices.
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Helmus, L. Maaike, R. Karl Hanson, Daniel C. Murrie, and Carmen L. Zabarauckas. "Field validity of Static-99R and STABLE-2007 with 4,433 men serving sentences for sexual offences in British Columbia: New findings and meta-analysis." Psychological Assessment 33, no. 7 (July 2021): 581–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pas0001010.

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35

Duwe, Grant, and Michael Rocque. "The home-field advantage and the perils of professional judgment: Evaluating the performance of the Static-99R and the MnSOST-3 in predicting sexual recidivism." Law and Human Behavior 42, no. 3 (June 2018): 269–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000277.

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36

Sandbukt, Ingeborg Jenssen, Torbjørn Skardhamar, Ragnar Kristoffersen, and Christine Friestad. "Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample." Sexual Abuse, August 22, 2020, 107906322095119. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063220951194.

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The Static-99R has been recommended for use as a first global screen for sorting out sex-convicted persons who are in need of further risk assessment. This study investigated the Static-99R’s predictive validity based on a nonselected Norwegian sample ( n = 858) of persons released from prison after having served a sex crime sentence. After a mean observation period of 2,183 days, 3.4% ( n = 29) had recidivated to a new sex offense. A higher number of recidivists were found among those with higher Static-99R total scores. The predictive contribution from each of the ten Static-99R risk items was investigated using standard logistic regression, proportional hazard regression, and random forest classification algorithm. The overall results indicate that the Static-99R is relevant as a risk screen in a Norwegian context, providing similar results concerning predictive accuracy as previous studies.
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Azizian, Allen, Mark E. Olver, James Rokop, and Deirdre M. D’Orazio. "A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act." Sexual Abuse, June 21, 2021, 107906322110197. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10790632211019726.

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We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up ( N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up ( n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.
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Lockhart, Joseph, Melinda DiCiro, James Rokop, and Anna Brennan. "California Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Evaluations in the Field: Static-99R and Diagnostic Field Reliability." Sexual Abuse, September 22, 2021, 107906322110423. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10790632211042364.

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Tests and diagnoses used in sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations must be reliable, as reliability is foundational to validity. The current study contained a stratified sample of evaluations of 395 individuals referred as potential SVPs between 2012 and 2017. Each individual was initially evaluated by at least two experts. The sample included three groups: individuals not meeting SVP criteria ( N = 200, or 400 evaluations), individuals meeting SVP criteria ( N = 95, with 190 evaluations), and individuals where evaluators disagreed ( N = 100, with 200 evaluations). The sample also included 200 subsequent independent evaluations on these “disagree” cases. Static-99R score intraclass coefficient (ICC) interrater reliability was good to excellent within each group and overall. Evaluators scored the Static-99R within one point of each other 87% of the time. Cohen’s kappa diagnostic agreement for Pedophilic Disorder was substantial. ASPD and substance abuse kappa were in the “fair” range, while OSPD diagnoses in the positive group were at the “moderate” level of agreement. Ethnic differences in diagnoses were consistent with other studies, with equivalent Static-99R ICC values across ethnic groups. There were no significant differences between state civil servants versus contracted experts in Static-99R ratings or final determinations. The results suggest that Static-99R scores have acceptable reliability in these evaluations, and Pedophilic Disorder (the most common paraphilic disorder in our study) and OSPD can be reliably diagnosed. We discuss limitations of the study, as well as the need for care in high-stakes evaluations given the imperfect reliability of psychological measurements.
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Baudin, Christian, Thomas Nilsson, Joakim Sturup, Märta Wallinius, and Peter Andiné. "A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses." Frontiers in Psychology 12 (February 2, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.625996.

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‘The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70–0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14–1.84, p &lt; 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument’s norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators’ workbook should be used.
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Marshall, Ethan, Holly A. Miller, Franca Cortoni, and L. Maaike Helmus. "The Static-99R Is Not Valid For Women: Predictive Validity in 739 Females Who Have Sexually Offended." Sexual Abuse, July 13, 2020, 107906322094030. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063220940303.

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Although many instruments have been validated to assess risk of sexual recidivism among men, no similar tool exists for women who have sexually offended. As a result, some jurisdictions use male-based instruments to assess women despite the lack of validation research examining the predictive utility for this subgroup. This study examined the utility of the Static-99R in predicting sexual recidivism among women. Based on a sample of 739 women convicted of sexual offenses in Texas, findings show that the total score was not significantly associated with sexual recidivism. When looking at individual items, other than a history of prior sexual offenses and noncontact sexual offenses, no item of the Static-99R was significantly associated with sexual recidivism among women. Furthermore, only three items (female victims/solo offender, 4+ sentencing dates, and having not lived with a romantic other for 2+ years) were significantly associated with nonsexual recidivism. These findings indicate that the Static-99R is not suitable to assess risk of recidivism among women convicted of sexual offenses.
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Aelick, Charlotte A., Kelly M. Babchishin, and Andrew J. R. Harris. "Severe mental illness diagnoses and their association with reoffending in a sample of men adjudicated for sexual offences." Sexual Offending: Theory, Research, and Prevention 15, no. 1 (July 22, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.5964/sotrap.3123.

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The current study examined the relationship between mental illness and recidivism in a sample of 409 men adjudicated for sexual offences who scored higher than average on an established risk assessment tool (Static-99R). Participants were from all provincial correctional systems (except Prince Edward Island) and all regions of the Correctional Service of Canada. Severe mental illness diagnoses, with the exception of some personality disorders, were not associated with recidivism (after an average follow-up of 11 years). While some personality diagnoses were initially related to recidivism, this relationship often disappeared or was attenuated after controlling for substance misuse and risk score on the Static-99R. There were two exceptions: Histrionic and narcissistic personality disorders continued to predict sexual recidivism after controlling for Static-99R and substance misuse history. In sum, the current study suggests that severe mental illness diagnoses are not associated with higher rates of recidivism after accounting for risk score and substance misuse in men with sexual offences, with the exception of histrionic and narcissistic personality disorder diagnoses. For this reason, risk judgements that weigh both known risk factors and severe mental illness may overestimate an individual’s risk to reoffend.
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Olver, Mark E., Sharon M. Kelley, Drew A. Kingston, Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson, David Thornton, and Stephen C. P. Wong. "Incremental Contributions of Static and Dynamic Sexual Violence Risk Assessment: Integrating Static-99R and VRS-SO Common Language Risk Levels." Criminal Justice and Behavior, November 26, 2020, 009385482097440. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854820974400.

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We examined the incremental contributions of static and dynamic sexual violence risk assessment in a multisite sample of 1,289 men treated for sexual offending. The study extends validation work that established new risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO), using the risk assessment common language (CL) framework. Different rates of sexual recidivism were observed at different thresholds of static risk (Static-99R) as a function of dynamic risk and treatment change, particularly for men who were actuarially above or well above average risk (Levels IVa and IVb, respectively). A framework integrating CL risk levels for Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic scores into overall CL risk levels is presented. We discuss implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment regarding the language used for risk communication and the importance of dynamic risk instruments in sexual violence evaluations, particularly when credible agents of risk change may be present.
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Tsao, I. Ting, and Chi Meng Chu. "An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore." Sexual Abuse, November 1, 2019, 107906321988457. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063219884575.

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The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments’ total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.
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Raymond, Beatrice C., Troy E. McEwan, Michael R. Davis, Sophie G. Reeves, and James R. P. Ogloff. "Investigating the predictive validity of Static-99/99R scores in a sample of older sexual offenders." Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, June 2, 2020, 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13218719.2020.1767714.

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45

Brankley, Andrew E., Kelly M. Babchishin, and R. Karl Hanson. "STABLE-2007 Demonstrates Predictive and Incremental Validity in Assessing Risk-Relevant Propensities for Sexual Offending: A Meta-Analysis." Sexual Abuse, September 13, 2019, 107906321987157. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063219871572.

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STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets.
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46

Sea, Jonghan, and Stephen D. Hart. "Interrater Reliability and Concurrent Validity of the Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol for Korean Sexual Offenders: A Field Study." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, November 7, 2020, 0306624X2096796. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x20967969.

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The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol (RSVP) is a set of structured professional judgment guidelines for conducting management-oriented sexual violence risk assessments. We investigated the interrater reliability (IRR) and the concurrent validity of the RSVP in the Republic of Korea. A total of 32 experienced and specially trained correctional psychologists in teams of four used an authorized translation of the RSVP to independently assess 47 adult male sexual offenders through a case history review and interviews. IRR, as indexed using intraclass correlations coefficients, was typically good to excellent for rating the presence and relevance of risk factors. Concurrent validity was also good, as indexed by correlations between RSVP ratings and total scores on two instruments for assessing risk for sexual violence: the Hallym Assessment Guide for Sex Offender Risk and Static-99R. Implications for the use of the RSVP by professionals and agencies, both within and outside Korea, are discussed.
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Cauley, Dean R., and Michelle D. Brownfield. "Static-99R: Item #1 – What is the Offenders Age?: A Lack of Consensus Leads to a Defective Actuarial." SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2237968.

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48

Olver, Mark E., Sarah M. Beggs Christofferson, Terry P. Nicholaichuk, and Stephen C. P. Wong. "Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age." Assessment, April 26, 2020, 107319112091440. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1073191120914405.

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The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.
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"Corrigendum to Testing the Static-99R as a Global Screen for Risk of Sex Crime Recidivism in a Norwegian Routine Sample." Sexual Abuse, November 6, 2020, 107906322097351. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063220973512.

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"Supplemental Material for Updated 5-Year and New 10-Year Sexual Recidivism Rate Norms for Static-99R With Routine/Complete Samples." Law and Human Behavior, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000436.supp.

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