Academic literature on the topic 'Statistics|Public policy'

Although women obtain degrees in the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) at lower rates than their male counterparts, this difference does not alone account for the similarly large disparity of men and women working in STEM jobs. Using data from the American Community Survey for 2015, I run a survey of models, including linear and logistic regressions as well as propensity matching, to investigate the extent to which women are underrepresented, even after accounting for education. The results show that for women, the benefit of a STEM degree on STEM job placement rates is significantly lower than it is for their male counterparts; in some estimates, the effect is halved. The models diverge somewhat on the extent to which this is correlated with a lower baseline of women without STEM degrees working STEM jobs (compared to similar men), but all provide grounds to reject the notion that workforce disparity is attributable solely or even primarily to education.

Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) attempts to curb opioid addiction by substituting a treatment opioid (i.e. methadone, buprenorphine, naltrexone, etc.) for an addict’s primary drug of abuse (i.e. heroin, oxycodone, etc.). However, insofar as patients continue abusing their preferred drug during treatment, OST programs may be increasing the absolute number of drugs patients are abusing. To the extent that some OST patients “divert” their treatment drugs into illicit markets, OST programs may also be increasing the absolute number of opioids abused by the surrounding population, as well. If corroborated, these trends would indicate a connection between OST treatments and the phenomenon most correlated with drug overdoses— “polydrug use”, or the concurrent use multiple drugs by one person.

To ascertain whether and to what extent OST treatment provisioning may be affecting regional polydrug use, this study models the annual number polydrug treatment episodes reported in a state as a function of that state’s OST patient population. The study relies primarily on two administrative datasets—the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services (N-SSATS) and the Treatment Episode Data Set-Admissions (TEDS-A)—collected between 2002 and 2006.

Using a two-way fixed-effects model that controlled for both state and annual fixed-effects, as well as for state populations and population densities, this study discovered a statistically significant positive correlation (p<.002) between a state’s OST patient population and the number of polydrug treatment episodes reported in the state. The model predicts that a doubling of a state’s OST patient population will be correlated with a 6.16-percent increase in polydrug episodes. These results suggest that OST treatment may be producing a dangerous side effect. At the very least, they suggest that, when considering potential expansions to OST programs, circumspect policymakers should also consider simultaneous expansions to services that address the predicted increase in polydrug use.

In this thesis, I investigate policies and programs to improve reproductive health. My thesis makes a substantive contribution to reproductive health policy and a methodological contribution to quasi-experimental research. In chapter 1, I evaluate the impact of a mobile phone intervention for adolescent girls. I design and implement a randomized controlled trial in Ghana to test whether sending information via mobile phones is an effective way to improve girls’ knowledge of sexual health and to ultimately reduce teenage pregnancy. I find that mobile phone programs are effective not only in increasing knowledge, but also in decreasing risk of pregnancy among sexually active adolescents. I discuss the results in the context of sexual education policy in Ghana. In chapter 2, I explore the complex interactions between migration and reproductive health. I reconstruct the complete migration and reproductive health histories of women residing in the urban slums of Accra, Ghana. Using individual fixed effects to reduce selection bias, I find an increased risk of pregnancy, miscarriage, and abortion in the 48 months after migration, with no significant increase in the chance of live birth during this time period. With half of abortions in Ghana classified as unsafe, these results suggest that policies which target the rapidly growing number of urban migrants by providing access to contraception and public hospital services may reduce unsafe abortion and improve maternal health outcomes. In chapter 3, I investigate the bias of standard errors in difference-in-difference estimation, which typically evaluates the effect of a group-level intervention on individual data. Common modeling adjustments for grouped data, such as cluster-robust standard errors, are biased when the number of clusters is small. I run Monte Carlo simulations to investigate both the coverage and power of a wide variety of modeling solutions from the econometric and biostatistics fields, while varying the balance of cluster sizes, the degree of error correlation, and the proportion of treated clusters. I then apply my results to re-evaluate a recently published study on the effect of emergency contraception on adolescent sexual behavior. I find that the study’s results claiming that emergency contraception increases risky sexual behavior may be spurious once proper adjustments for grouped data are applied.
Health Policy

The dissertation analyzes multilevel models to predict mortgage origination and the allocation of subprime credit pre-and-post Great Recession. With representative samples from two full years of mortgage applications filed in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, the dissertation uncovers evidence of persistent disparities by race and neighborhood minority concentration despite controls for socioeconomic, demographic, assimilation and housing variables. Mortgage outcomes varied by applicant race, neighborhood racial composition and neighborhood racial change. Findings suggest evidence of Fair Housing Act violations and disparate impacts towards minority homebuyers and minority neighborhoods. Results lend support for spatial assimilation theories in explaining much of the gap white-Asian gap and non-Hispanic white-Hispanic gap. Notable gaps remain between blacks and whites that are better explained by the place stratification model. In both 2004 and 2010 black, Asian and Hispanic prospective homebuyers were less likely to originate their mortgage relative to whites. In the earlier 2004 mortgage sample, black and Hispanic borrowers were much more likely to take out subprime loans relative to whites and Asians less likely. In 2010, the results held that black homebuyers were more likely than whites to take on subprime mortgages and Asian homebuyers less likely. The applicant coefficient for Hispanic was not a significant predictor of subprime in 2010. Asian homebuyers were indeed at a disadvantage relative to white homebuyers, both before and after the Great Recession and the disparity did not change significantly over time. Women were more likely than men to be denied mortgages and also to obtain subprime mortgages. Black neighborhoods were disadvantaged in 2004 and 2010, and increasing numbers of black neighbors reduced the likelihood of mortgage origination in 2004, but not in 2010. In 2004 and 2010, the presence of Asian and Hispanic neighbors increased the likelihood of mortgage origination but neighborhood racial ethnic change was less well received—with negative impacts for increasing numbers of Asian neighbors in both years and reduced mortgage odds for increasingly Hispanic neighborhoods in 2010. Neighborhoods with concentrated single mother households experienced disinvestment including denied mortgages and higher likelihood of subprime status when lenders infuse mortgage capital, though the effect size was very small. The research overcomes limitations of previous studies by employing advanced methods which account for neighborhood effects and by incorporating dynamic measures such as house-price-to-income ratios and regional credit score averages. The primary novel contribution of the dissertation is that this is the first study to examine the effect of neighborhood racial ethnic change on mortgage outcomes and the allocation of subprime mortgage credit. Explicit Fair Housing Act violations spur recommendations for reducing unequal disbursement of mortgage credit by race and gender, most importantly, by urging American schools to provide compulsory primary school coursework in financial literacy.

This thesis presents three empirical analyses of the macroeconomic effects and sustainability of fiscal policy. Three key issues are examined: the transmission mechanism for fiscal policy shocks in Korea, the sustainability of government debt in three selected countries (Korea, the UK, and the US), and the effects of fiscal consolidation on macroeconomic activity. The main findings are as follows. First, government spending has a positive effect on the economy. Capital spending is likely to boost the economy more effectively than current spending. Second, there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Korea and the US, but not in the UK. That means fiscal policy in Korea and the US is sustainable, while fiscal policy in the UK is not. Third, fiscal consolidation is not likely to be expansionary in terms of GDP growth. The results also show that fiscal consolidation in time of high debt-to-GDP ratios, the spending-base, or high sovereign risk has fewer negative effects on economic growth than fiscal consolidation in time of low debt-to-GDP ratios, the tax-base, or low sovereign risk. The economic growth rate, government spending-based fiscal consolidation, low long-term interest rates, and higher sovereign risk have significant effects on reducing debt-to-GDP ratio.

This dissertation consists of two empirical papers and one methods paper. The first two papers use quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the impact of universal health insurance reform in Massachusetts (MA) and Thailand and the third paper evaluates the validity of a quasi-experimental method used in comparative effectiveness research (CER).

The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate whether two different types of policy interventions in the United States are associated with health service utilization and economic outcomes. Paper 1: The number of government lawsuits accusing pharmaceutical companies of off-label marketing has risen in recent years. We use Medicare and Medicaid claims data to evaluate how an off-label marketing lawsuit and its accompanying media coverage affected utilization and spending on gabapentin as well as other anticonvulsant medications. In this interrupted time series analysis of dual eligible patients with bipolar disorder, we found that the lawsuit and accompanying media coverage corresponded with a decrease in market share of gabapentin, a substitution of newer and expensive anticonvulsants, and a substantial increase in overall spending on anticonvulsants. Paper 2: Medicare Part D was a major expansion of Medicare benefits to cover pharmaceuticals. There were initial concerns about how the dually eligible population who previously had drug coverage through Medicaid would fare after transitioning to Part D plans. Using a nationally representative longitudinal panel survey of Medicare Beneficiaries that are dually eligible for Medicaid, we investigated whether differences in generosity of Medicaid drug benefits were associated with differential changes in drug utilization and out-of-pocket spending for duals after they transitioned to Part D. Our finding suggest that those who previously encountered a monthly drug cap prior to Part D implementation experienced a differentially higher increase in annual prescription drug fills compared with those who did not face a cap.

AbstractA country’s public debt figures vary considerably in any given year, depending on the definitions used. It creates difficulties in constructing and interpreting long-term statistical series. This chapter examines the policy issues behind the definition and accounting of public debt through history. Based on a critical analysis of widely used historical sources, as well as case studies, it discusses how to interpret historical public debt statistics. Analyzing general trends in the historical development of comparability of public debt statistics since the nineteenth century, it identifies three perspectives on debt accounting that have framed the construction of statistics over time: “financial”, “circuitist” and “benchmarking”. Since public debt accounting and policy depend on the way in which public debt is issued and traded and on the identity of creditors, each of these ideal-types roughly corresponds to a debt regime, and more broadly to a historical period of capitalism.

The content of this subject is frequently overlooked, as it is often ‘not seen as pertinent’ to practitioners’ day- to- day work. However, the impact of dental public health (DPH) as a discipline can be far reaching. DPH is concerned with improving the oral health of the population, rather than the individual. It has been described as the science and art of preventing oral disease, promoting oral health, and improving quality of life through the organized efforts of society. DPH teams have numerous responsibilities, including oral health sur­veillance, developing and monitoring quality dental services, oral health improvement, policy and strategy development and implementation, and strategic leadership and collaborative working for health. As such, the impact of DPH can frequently been seen at a local level, e.g. through health promotion campaigns or provision of new/ redistribution of ser­vices (in conjunction with commissioners) to meet local needs. DPH is predominantly a postgraduate subject, and although the undergraduate curriculum does not cover the whole topic, some core knowledge is valuable. In particular, understanding research method­ology and basic statistics is a useful skill to help interpret the dental lit­erature appropriately. This is ever more necessary in the modern era of evidence- based dentistry. The questions in this chapter will predominantly cover the fundamen­tals of statistics relevant to medical research, along with the basics of study design. Additional questions will touch on the concepts of health promotion and epidemiology, with further reading suggested to supple­ment the content. Key topics include: ● Study design ● Data analysis ● Critical appraisal ● Epidemiology ● Health promotion ● Strategic working and collaboration ● Assessing evidence on oral health and dental interventions, pro­grammes, and services ● Developing and monitoring quality dental services.

An important feature of many rural markets is the over-supply of labour. An insufficient number of jobs in rural areas is usually associated with the shortage of capital, companies, consumers and skilled workers, i.e. limited impact of the agglomeration effect. Additionally, in regions with structural changes in agriculture, the phenomenon of increased or hidden unemployment is visible. One of the important objectives of labour market policy in Poland was a promotion of employment, especially in peripheral, poor and agricultural territories. Along with the accession of Poland to the EU, both agricultural and cohesion policy instruments supported by the structural funds have also been aimed at resolving the problems of rural labour markets. They concerned mainly the diversification of agricultural activities, support of entrepreneurship, as well as development of knowledge and skills. The paper considers the barriers and challenges in increasing employment in rural Poland. In particular, the changes on local rural labour markets and the influence of relevant policy tools thereon have been studied. The study is based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the public statistics and information on the implementation of selected EU CAP and Cohesion Policy instruments in Poland from the period 2007-2014 and the literature of the subject. The study showed that, despite the favourable economic situation and the effects of projects aimed at creating and maintaining non-agricultural jobs in rural areas supported by the EU founds, the rural employment rate and the number of people employed in agriculture did not increase significantly. In this context, the paper provides the explanation of limited improvements in terms of rural employment and policy offers recommendations in this area.

Статья посвящена роли этнокультурного и языкового родства в отношениях приграничных территорий. Приводятся социолингвистическая статистика и примеры дискурсивных практик местных СМИ и общественных организаций. Концепция финноугорского мира способствует расширению географии сотрудничества и выступает инструментом влияния на внутреннюю политику. The article is devoted to the role of ethnocultural and linguistic kinship in relations between the border areas. Sociolinguistic statistics and examples of discursive practices of local media and public organizations are given. The concept of the FinnoUgric world contributes to the expansion of the geography of cooperation and acts as a tool of influence on internal policy.

We assessed the health care reform and its effects on household’s welfare such as access to health care and household economic burden. We used descriptive analysis on 2002-2011 Ministry of Health and OECD Health Statistics. The main result is about using health care. Access to health care increased after health care reform in Turkey. Number of applications to health care service server and its units rose. On the other hand, financial burden of health care on household’s budget decreased number of applications. The main result percentage of not consulting a specialist even needed to consult a specialist but did not during the past 12 months is %4.9 in 2003 and %19.9 in 2010. To improve health care access, policy makers should improve public sector provision of health care, increase social security benefit packages and protect poor and vulnerable.

The aim of this paper is to compare fiscal reforms of some of the transition economies in Balkans including The Republic of Macedonia. Since 1990’s former planned economies, which are in the process of economic transformation into market economy have carried out several reforms. During this economic transformation process both the effects and the results of these reforms vary according to the difference between the needs of structural change in each country. In this study, some of the selected transition economies in Balkans are analyzed: Some of the recent members of European Community in Balkans and The Republic of Macedonia are examined in comparison. Analysis of fiscal reforms of these transition economies are evaluated in several headings in reference to the macroeconomic statistics created by international organizations such as OECD, EC and IMF and policy suggestions are proposed accordingly. The government deficit, government debts and tax policy are the significant part of these reforms. Several strategies are implemented in developing support systems for competitive environment and private ownership. Economic shrinkage, current account deficit, low foreign capital and government deficit indicate economic weakness in these countries. The Czech Republic, Bulgaria, The Republic of Macedonia, Romania and Hungary face fiscal problems such as economic shrinkage, debt service and government deficit during the transition process. As being the candidate country for European Union accession; The Republic of Macedonia is approaching to the Maastricht Criteria and has better outcomes in public debt compared to the other countries given above.

To better understand how improved understanding of uncertainty and probability concepts in an engineering systems context would affect undergraduate engineering students’ perceptions of professional responsibility and ethics as well as personal agency (one’s ability to affect the outcome of events), an assessment of these principles was conducted during a related course. A course entitled Engineering Risk Analysis was offered and conducted with a mix of undergraduate Mechanical Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Petroleum Engineering, Environmental Systems Engineering, and Architectural Engineering students. This course presented and trained students in the use of system analysis techniques from the disciplines of Reliability Engineering, Policy Analysis, and Economics for understanding how uncertain circumstances interact with technological systems to produce failures and disasters. As engineering systems become increasingly complex and command greater quantities of energy, the risk of failures even when very rare, become much more severe. While there have been previous initiatives to increase engineering students’ understanding of statistics, probability, and risk, usually in response to previous disasters, this preliminary study is the first to begin to examine how this kind of knowledge affects engineering student’s perceptions of ethics, responsibility, and their concept of how their own individual decisions affect the potential for the failure of complex systems and the consequences of such failures. Students completed 5 regular survey-based assessments to judge their qualitative and quantitative skills, personal perceptions of the causes of engineering failures, and the professional and ethical responsibilities of engineers. Analysis of the response variance and a linear regression model demonstrated some significant effects after controlling for education, age, and professional work experience. Results indicate that questions related to probabilistic understanding of risk demonstrated the most significant change during the course. Indicators of agreement with strong professional ethics and greater professional responsibility as well as personal agency did not significantly change during the course. More importantly, while personal choices on risk did not appear to reflect one’s view of how engineers actually do or should treat questions of risk professionally, the amount of previous technical work experience showed a small positive association with increased agreement on statements of ethical responsibility towards workers and the public. These findings suggest that future research is needed to assess the types of instruction and personal experience that can best encourage the combination of strong ethical responsibility and personal agency that could empower engineering students to act when they have the opportunity to reduce risk to workers, the public, or the environment.

The paper focuses on the crime analysis in the 32 municipalities at the Schengen border in the period 2010–2019. The results of the analysis of police crime statistics show that crimes against property present the most frequent form of crime in municipalities at the Schengen border, followed by forgery of documents, threat, the prohibited crossing of the state border or territory, counterfeiting or destruction of business documents, and minor bodily injury. In the analysed period, the number of crimes against public order and peace increased significantly (especially number of crimes of the prohibited crossing of the state border or territory), which can be [at least partially] attributed to the migrant crisis in recent years. In the period 2010–2019, these forms of crime increased mainly in the following municipalities Brežice, Cirkulane, Ilirska Bistrica, Krško, Podlehnik, Razkrižje and Šentjernej. Overall, the number of crimes, similarly as elsewhere in Slovenia, increases with the size of the municipality and the number of population in the municipality.

Because of the growth of cities in size and population, people get used to perform several stage trips involving transfers due to advantages such as time or price paid, being multistage trips more attractive compared to single stage trips. In Quito, Ecuador, nowadays multistage trips represent one third of total daily trips. This paper seeks to identify main characteristics of multistage trips as well as find relationships and inferences that allow recommendations regarding best practices to policy makers and transport managers. The information used belong to the data collected in the Household Survey Mobility held in Quito in 2011. Based on these data, the present work starts using an analysis with descriptive statistics. The next phase of this research involves the search for a methodology in order to identify correlations between demographic, socioeconomic and transport variables related with traveler´s choice for making or not a transfer. Best methodology found was the use of Binary Logistic Regression (Logit) and specific computer software, with which different statistic's models were performed to find the strongest correlation. The paper ends with conclusions and recommendations as well as suggestions for future research.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3530

Identifying and evaluating climate expenditures in the public sector, known as budget tagging, has generated increasing attention from multiple stakeholders, not only to assess the governments climate change policy, but also to monitor fiscal risks associated with increasing and unpredictable climate change impacts. This paper explores the issues raised by climate change budget tagging in the context of a broader discussion on the connections with fiscal and environmental statistical classification systems. It argues that, for climate change budget tagging efforts to be successful, the definitions and classifications of climate change expenditures must be consistent with statistical standards currently in use, such as the Government Finance Statistics Framework and the System of National Accounts.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The LAC Debt Group believes that to have sound regional policy it is important to have valid, comparable, and standardized data on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Therefore, at the core of the initiative is the development of a standardized sovereign debt database to help debt managers, policy makers, and other actors of financial markets, analyze the composition of public debt in LAC. The information presented in this database is provided by the Debt Management Offices of 26 LAC countries in response to a questionnaire specifically created to allow comparability of data. The questionnaire is intended to compile up-to-date standardized statistics to conduct cross-country comparisons over clear, objective, and homogeneous definitions of public debt.

The LAC Debt Group believes that to have sound regional policy it is important to have valid, comparable, and standardized data on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Therefore, at the core of the initiative is the development of a standardized sovereign debt database to help debt managers, policy makers, and other actors of financial markets, analyze the composition of public debt in LAC. The information presented in this database is provided by the Debt Management Offices of 26 LAC countries in response to a questionnaire specifically created to allow comparability of data. The questionnaire is intended to compile up-to-date standardized statistics to conduct cross-country comparisons over clear, objective, and homogeneous definitions of public debt.

In many African countries south of the Sahara, farmers depend on the cultivation of vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) for both consumption and commercial purposes. Yet yields for these crops remain at low levels due, in part, to the persistent use of low-quality planting material. Efforts to improve the quality of planting material exchanged in markets or through other channels are often hampered by the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation—characteristics that distinguish VPCs from the major cereal crops that drive and shape the policy and investment choices made in many of these countries. This suggests that continued investment in new technologies and systems to produce, package, and distribute VPC planting materials will require customized policies and policy support if these systems are to supply farmers with quality planting material at any significant and sustained scale. This paper explores these issues in the context of the cassava seed system in Nigeria by drawing on (1) prior research, public policy documents, and government statistics; (2) key informant interviews and focus group discussions with seed system actors; and (3) a unique dataset from the 2015 Cassava Monitoring Survey of Nigeria (CMS). The paper examines the production and supply of cassava planting material, the influence of various quality assurance systems on production and supply, and the implications for smallholder farmers in Nigeria. We describe the market, non-market, and regulatory systems that shape the cassava seed market in Nigeria, focusing on effectiveness, influence, and reach. We then explore the ground realities—how farmers actually acquire and use cassava planting material—given the (weak) state of markets and regulation. This is followed by a discussion of alternative policy and regulatory approaches to managing and expanding the cassava seed system, emphasizing a more decentralized approach that prioritizes investment in innovative capacity at the community and enterprise levels.