Academic literature on the topic 'Stock market mispricing'

The main purpose of this research is to examine the cross-sectional connection between asset growth and stock returns in the international equity market during 2016-2020. Firms in international equity markets, subsequently experience lower stock returns with higher asset growth rates, consistent with the United States evidence. If capital markets are well-developed stocks efficiently priced then the negative AG effect on returns is likely to be stronger, but different to country characteristics representing accounting quality, investor protection, and limits to arbitrage. The research is to examine the cross-sectional connection between the asset growth and stock return in the international equity market is likely due to optimal investment effect than due to market timing, overinvestment, or other forms of mispricing. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional association between the AG effect and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, mispricing or market timing. The findings of the research support Copper et al (2008) however, the weakening of the accounting quality decreases the AG effect magnitude which contradicts the mispricing-based arguments.

ABSTRACT We examine whether market-wide investor sentiment influences the stock price sensitivity to firm-specific earnings news. Using the recently developed measure of investor sentiment by Baker and Wurgler (2006), we find that the stock price sensitivity to good earnings news is higher during high sentiment periods than during periods of low sentiment, whereas the stock price sensitivity to bad earnings news is higher during periods of low sentiment than during periods of high sentiment. This influence of sentiment is especially pronounced for the earnings news of small stocks, young stocks, high volatility stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, and stocks with extremely high and low market-to-book ratios. Further analysis suggests that the sentiment-driven mispricing of earnings contributes to the general mispricing of stocks due to investor sentiment. JEL Classifications: D14; D21; G24.

AbstractWe examine two hypotheses to explain stock mispricing: i) the money illusion hypothesis (Modigliani and Cohn (1979)) and ii) the resale option hypothesis (Scheinkman and Xiong (2003)). We find that the money illusion hypothesis may explain the level, but not the volatility, of mispricing in the U.S. market. In contrast, the stock resale option hypothesis, which stems from heterogeneous beliefs about future dividend growth rates and short-sale constraints, can explain both the level and the volatility of mispricing. The evidence suggests that while the two hypotheses complement each other in explaining the level of mispricing, the resale option hypothesis provides a more coherent explanation for asset price bubbles, in which extraordinarily high price levels are often accompanied by excessive volatility and frenzied trading.

We investigate the question whether the book to market ratio acts as a “risk-based” or “mispricing-based” proxy for share price formation in Chinese markets. We find that a strong relationship is observed between the firms’ book to market ratio and stock returns both in current and following years, while we cannot find a steady relationship between market leverage ratio and stock returns. In addition, the findings support the notion that a mispricing-based explanation is more plausible in China due to the speculative features of the Chinese markets.

This study explores the arbitrage opportunities in Deliverable Future Contracts (DFC) due to mispricing and the factors affecting it. We use the cost of carry model to calculate the fair prices of futures. We use mispricing as a direct measure of arbitrage opportunities. With one-year daily data collected from the data portal of Pakistan Stock Exchange, we calculate mispricing for twenty-two stock futures. Summary statistics of mispricing confirm the presence of arbitrage opportunities in this market. We also examine the relationship of mispricing with the time to contract expiry, stock return volatility, the trading volume of ready and future market, and open interest. Tobit regression results indicate that apart from open interest, all other factors possess significant explanatory power for mispricing.

AbstractIn this paper we examine the relation between equity mispricing and arbitrage risk and find that stocks with high arbitrage risk have higher estimated mispricing than stocks with low arbitrage risk. These results are not limited to high book-to-market or small capitalization stocks, and they are not sensitive to transaction and short-selling costs. In addition, they remain robust to alternative multifactor return generating specification models and mispricing measures. Overall, our empirical results are consistent with the conjecture that mispricing is a manifestation of the inability of arbitrageurs to hedge idiosyncratic risk, a major deterrent to arbitrage activity.

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of stock mispricing on corporate investment decisions by taking the sample of non-financial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange during the period of 2008-2014. Design/methodology/approach To measure the mispricing, this study decomposes the market-to-book ratio into mispricing and growth components and measures corporate investment by capital expenditures. Fixed and random effect panel regression models are used to estimate the results. Findings Results of the study show that firms issue overvalued equity to finance the capital expenditures. Consistent with other studies, the relationship between stock mispricing and investment is more prominent in the financially constrained firms. In addition, cash flow investment sensitivity is higher in financially unconstrained firms. Practical implications Nonetheless, the results give important implications to the Pakistan Stock Market on how the mispricing enhances the welfare by relaxing the financial constraints and allowing the managers to make investment in profitable projects that otherwise go non-funded. These findings have interesting implications for further research in the literature of finance and also help in economic policy-making. Originality/value This study finds the impact of stock mispricing on corporate investment decisions by considering the role of market timing in the context of Pakistan.

This study tests whether retail behaviour affects the stock price and pricing efficiency of stocks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) using data on equity from retail investors' market transactions. The Delong, et al. (1990) model is used to measure retail mispricing and stock price efficiency, whereas the Least Squares (LS) and Generalised Least Square (GLS) techniques are used to estimate the static and probability distributed lag (PDL) models. The study finds that in the short run, temporary retail mispricing impacts stock prices and positively affects stock price efficiency. Hence, retail investors’ pricing behaviour benefits the equity market in the short-run, but not in the long run. Thus, for sustaining the efficiency of prices in the NSE, retail investors should participate in the equity market and investor literacy programs to enhance their trading skills, which would reduce their losses and enhance their survival in the market over the long term. JEL Classification: D53, G12.

AbstractPrevious studies offer a mixed understanding of the economic role of stock repurchases. This paper investigates three key economic motivations—mispricing, disgorging free cash flow, and increasing leverage—by evaluating cross-sectional differences in both the initial market reaction and long-run performance. The initial reaction provides some support for the mispricing story. However, subsequent earnings-related information shocks suggest that the initial market reaction is incomplete and that long-run performance may be informative. The long-horizon return evidence is most consistent with the mispricing hypothesis and, to some degree, the free cash flow hypothesis. We find little support for the leverage hypothesis.

This paper aims at examining the impact of herding behavior on stock mispricing. Herding behavior is measured by Cross Sectional of Standard Deviation (CSSD), while stock mispricing is measured by the difference between the market value and intrinsic value of stock. This has been conducted using a sample of 24 companies are listed at the Egyptian exchange during the period from 2002 to 2018. Results indicate there is a significant effect of herd behavior on stock mispricing in a bivariate context, while the effect remains significant, even after controlling for inflation rate and discount rate. Besides, the discount rates don’t seem to have any significant effects on stock mispricing.

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay studies the impact of indexing on stock price efficiency. Indexing has experienced substantial growth over the last two decades because it is an effective way of holding a diversified portfolio while minimizing trading costs and taxes. In this paper, we focus on one negative externality of indexing: the effect on efficiency of stock prices. Based on a sample of large and liquid U.S. stocks, we find that greater indexing leads to less efficient stock prices, as indicated by stronger post-earnings-announcement drift, greater deviations of stock prices from the random walk and greater return predictability from lagged order imbalances. We conjecture that reduced incentives for information acquisition and arbitrage induced by indexing are probably the main cause of the degradation in price efficiency, but we find no evidence supporting a direct impact from passive trading or any effect through liquidity. The second essay investigates the effect of price inefficiency on idiosyncratic risk and stock returns. I finds that price inefficiency in individual stocks contributes to expected idiosyncratic volatility. If idiosyncratic risk is priced, greater price inefficiency could be associated with higher expected returns. Consistent with this hypothesis, this paper then finds a positive relation between price inefficiency and future stock returns. This return premium of price inefficiency is not explained by traditional risk factors, illiquidity, or transactions costs. It is also evidently different from the return bias related to Jensen's inequality. This paper thus provides new insights about the determinants of expected stock returns, and new supporting evidence that idiosyncratic risk is priced. The third essay examines whether the upward return bias generated by Jensen's inequality could lead to better performance of equally-weighted (EW) indexes than value-weighted (VW) index when stock prices are not fully efficient. We find that, for a wide range of U.S. stock indexes, EW indexes deliver better four-factor adjusted returns than VW ones do even after deducting transaction costs. Consistent with our hypothesis that the outperformance of EW indexes comes from mispricing, we find that this outperformance concentrates in stocks with greater mispricing, as measured by deviation of stock prices from random walk. Findings in this essay not only imply a potentially winning investment strategy, but also provide new insight into a long-term debate on causes of the outperformance of the EW indexes.
Ph. D.

Baker and Wurgler (2002) define a new theory of capital structure. In this theory capital structure evolves as the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market. Baker and Wurgler extend market timing theory to long-term capital structure, but their results do not clearly distinguish between the two versions of market timing: perceived mispricing and adverse selection. The main purpose of this dissertation is to empirically identify the relative importance of these two explanations. First, I retest Baker and Wurgler's theory by using insider trading as an alternative to market-to-book ratio to measure equity market timing. I also formally test the adverse selection model of the equity market timing: first by using post-issuance performance, and then by using three measures of adverse selection. The first two measures use estimates of adverse information costs based on the bid and ask prices, and the third measure is based on the close-to-offer returns. Based on received theory, a dynamic adverse selection model implies that higher adverse information costs lead to higher leverage. On the other hand, a naïve adverse selection model implies that negative inside information leads to lower leverage. The results are consistent with the equity market timing theory of capital structure. The results also indicate that a naïve, as opposed to a dynamic, adverse selection model seems to be the best explanation as to why managers time equity issues.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the "limits of arbitrage" on securities mispricing. Specifically, I investigate the effect of the availability of substitutes and financial constraints on stock mispricing. In addition, this study investigates the difference in the limits of arbitrage, in the sense that it will lead to lower mispricing for these stocks, relative to non-S&P 500 stocks. I also examine if the lower mispricing can be attributed to their lower limits of arbitrage. Modern finance theory and efficient market hypothesis suggest that security prices, at equilibrium, should reflect their fundamental value. If the market price deviates from the intrinsic value, then a risk-free profit opportunity has emerged and arbitrageurs will eliminate mispricing and equilibrium is restored. This arbitrage process is characterized by large number of arbitrageurs which have infinite access to capital. However, a better description of reality is that there are few numbers of arbitrageurs to the extent that they are highly specialized; and they have limited access to capital. Under these condition arbitrage is no more a risk-free activity and can be limited by several factors such as arbitrage risk and transaction costs. Other factors that are discussed in the literature are availability of substitutes and financial constraints. The former arises as a result of the specialization of arbitrageurs in the market in which they operate, while the latter arises as a result of the separation between arbitrageurs and capital. In this dissertation, I develop a measure of the availability of substitutes that is based on the propensity scores obtained from propensity score matching technique. In addition, I use the absolute value of skewness of returns as a proxy of financial constraints. Previous studies used the limits of arbitrage framework to explain pricing puzzles such as the closed-end fund discounts. However, closed-end fund discounts are highly affected by uncertainty of managerial ability and agency problems. This study overcomes this problem by studying the effect of limits of arbitrage on publicly traded securities. The results show that there is a significant relationship between proxies of limits of arbitrage and firm specific mispricing. More importantly, empirical results indicate that stocks that have no close substitutes have higher mispricing. In addition, stocks that have high skewness show higher mispricing. Subsequent studies show that the S&P 500 stocks have different levels of liquidity, analysts’ coverage and volatility. These characteristics affect the ability of arbitrageurs to eliminate mispricing. Preliminary univariate tests show that S&P 500 stocks have, on average, lower mispricing and limits of arbitrage relative to non-S&P 500 stocks. In addition, the multivariate test shows that S&P 500 members have, on average, lower mispricing relative to non-S&P 500 stocks.

This dissertation studies the cost of carry relationship and the international dynamics of mispricing, price and volatility in the three Nikkei futures markets - the Osaka Exchange (OSE), the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Previous research does not fully consider the unique characteristics of the triple-listed Nikkei futures contracts, or the price and volatility dynamics in the three Nikkei futures exchanges at the same time. This dissertation makes a significant contribution to the existing literature. In particular, with a comprehensive new 19-year sample period, this dissertation helps deepen the understanding of the Nikkei spot-futures equilibrium and arbitrage behaviour, cross-border information transmission mechanism, and futures market integration. The first topic of the dissertation is to study the cost of carry relationship, mispricing and index arbitrage in the three Nikkei markets. The standard cost of carry model is adjusted for each Nikkei futures contract by allowing for the triple-listing nature and key institutional differences. Based on this, the economic significance of the Nikkei mispricing is explored in the presence of transaction costs. The static behaviour of the mispricing suggests that it is difficult especially for institutional investors to make arbitrage profits in the OSE and SGX, and that index arbitrage in the CME is not strictly risk-free due to the exchange rate effect. Smooth transition models are used to study the dynamic behaviour of the mispricing in the three markets. The results show that mean reversion in mispricing and limits to arbitrage are driven more by transaction costs than by heterogeneous arbitrageurs in the Nikkei markets. The second topic of the dissertation is to investigate the price discovery process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets. With smooth transition error correction models, this dissertation reports the leading role of the futures prices in the pre-crisis period and the leading role of the spot prices in the post-crisis period, in the first-moment information transmission process. Moreover, there is evidence of asymmetric adjustments in the Nikkei prices and volatilities. The cross-border dynamics suggest that the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) act as the main price discovery vehicle, which implies the key functions of the equivalent, offshore markets in futures market globalisation. The third topic of the dissertation is to study the volatility transmission process in individual Nikkei markets and across the Nikkei futures markets, from the perspectives of the volatility interactions in and across the Nikkei markets and of the dynamic Nikkei market linkages. This dissertation finds bidirectional volatility spillover effects between the Nikkei spot and futures markets, and the information leadership of the foreign Nikkei markets (the CME and SGX) in the second-moment information transmission process across the border. It further examines the dynamic conditional correlations between the Nikkei markets. The results point to a dramatic integration process with strongly persistent and stable Nikkei market co-movements over time.

The aim of the Ph.D. thesis is twofold. First, we investigate possible stock market mispricing to eventually build profitable investment strategies. Second, we analyze how the microscopic interactions among agents influence trading conditions thereby leading to market instabilities. As regards the study of possible mispricing, we identify via the vector autoregressive approach revenues as the primary driver process of firm growth. To do so, we employ the recent Independent Component Analysis (ICA) technique which allows us to identify contemporaneous causal relations among the considered variables. In particular, the first original contribution of the thesis is to extend the ICA methodology for singular and noisy structural vector autoregressive models; see Chapter 2. As a second original contribution, starting from the revenues, we propose a firm valuation framework incorporating the associated intrinsic uncertainty. We derive a probability distribution of fair values, we construct a market factor capturing misvaluation comovements and we propose two stock recommendation systems that hinge on the fair value distribution; see Chapters 3, 4 and 5. Finally, in the last contribution, we analyze asymptotically market stability as the number of assets and traders increase. Market instability is defined as a result of oscillating equilibrium strategies of optimal execution problems in market impact games, where the dynamical equilibrium between the activity of simultaneously trading agents generates the price dynamics. One of the main results is the connection of market instability to the market cross-impact structure when portfolios execution orders are considered; see Chapter 7, 8 and 9.

Cette thèse se compose de trois études empiriques (chapitre2, chapitre 3 et chapitre 4) qui examinent l’impact de la responsabilité sociétale des entreprises (RSE) sur l’efficience des marchés financiers. Notre objectif est de contribuer à la littérature portant sur les implications financières de la RSE à travers l’impact de cette dernière sur l’efficience des marchés financiers. Afin d’étudier cette relation, nous examinons en premier lieu l’impact de la RSE sur le mispricing. Ensuite, nous analysons la relation en profondeur en se focalisant sur la relation entre la RSE et les deux sources de mispricing proposées par la finance comportementale : le sentiment de l’investisseur qui crée le mispricing et les limites à l’arbitrage qui empêchent les arbitragistes d’exploiter les opportunités de mispricing (Jacobs, 2015). Dans le chapitre 2, les résultats de l’étude de l’impact de la RSE sur le mispricing s’alignent avec les études qui supportent une relation complexe entre la RSE et la valeur de la firme (Servaes and Tamayo, 2013 ; Surroca et al., 2010) suggérant que la RSE n’est pas systématiquement liée aux fondamentaux de l’entreprise mais qu’elle peut être associée à des dynamiques sociales et institutionnelles sans rapport avec les fondamentaux. L’information sociale s’avère difficile à comprendre et à interpréter d’une façon objective et toutes les informations concernant la RSE ne sont pas égales en termes de pertinence. Nous trouvons également que l’impact positif de la RSE sur le mispricing est moins prononcé en période de crise ce qui confirme la théorie des perspectives (Tversky and Kahneman, 1979). Durant les périodes de chocs négatifs, les “noise traders”, limitent leurs transactions ce qui réduit la probabilité d’exploiter les opportunités de spéculation des transactions des “noise traders”. Les investisseurs sont alors à la recherche d’une assurance contre leur exposition à des nouvelles dramatiques durant les périodes de pessimisme. La RSE représente un mécanisme d’assurance en période de crise (Lins et al. (2017). Dans le chapitre 3, l’analyse de la relation entre la RSE et le sentiment de l’investisseur montre que les firmes performantes en termes de RSE sont plus sensibles au sentiment de l’investisseur. La RSE semble ainsi faire partie des facteurs qui amplifient l’irrationalité des investisseurs, conformément à ce que prédit la théorie socio-psychologique (Orlitzky, 2013). La complexité du concept de RSE ainsi que la relation ambivalente entre la RSE, la valeur de la firme et l’asymétrie d’information contribuent à la propagation du “bruit” sur les marchés financiers. Pareillement, les résultats de la relation en période de crise s’alignent parfaitement avec nos résultats précédents et les travaux empiriques de Lins et al., (2017). Quand “tout va bien”, les investisseurs jugent la RSE inutile pour la performance de l’entreprise. Toutefois, quand “les choses tournent mal”, ils considèrent la RSE comme un mécanisme d’assurance (Godfrey, 2005). Finalement, dans le dernier chapitre, la RSE apparaît ainsi comme étant positivement liée aux limites à l’arbitrage en raison de l’incertitude informationnelle qu’elle engendre au vu des couts élevés qu’elle implique et de la volatilité des cash-flow futures qui en découle. La RSE intègre ainsi les limites à l’arbitrage liées aux couts de transaction à travers son impact négatif sur la liquidité du titre, en ligne avec la théorie de l’agence (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). Nos résultats sont également cohérents avec la théorie du surinvestissement (Barnea and Rubin, 2010) confirmant la relation positive entre la RSE et le risque spécifique de la firme à cause de l’enracinement des dirigeants. La performance sociale amplifie les limites à l’arbitrage ce qui rend l’arbitrage plus couteux et plus risqué. Globalement, on suggère que la performance sociale est un déterminant important de l’efficience des marchés financiers
This thesis consists of three empirical essays (Chapter 2, chapter 3 and chapter 4, respectively) examining the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on market efficiency. We aim to contribute to the growing literature on the financial implications of CSR by exploring the subject through the role of CSR in shaping market efficiency. In order to explain this relationship, we first examine whether CSR impacts stock mispricing. Then, we focus on the two main sources of mispricing suggested by behavioral finance: investor sentiment which creates mispricing and limits to arbitrage which prevent arbitrageurs from exploiting mispricing opportunities (Jacobs, 2015). In chapter 2, we study the relationship between CSR and stock mispricing. Our findings are consistent with studies supporting the complex relationship between CSR and firm value (Servaes and Tamayo, 2013; Surroca et al., 2010) suggesting that CSR in not systematically related to firms’ fundamentals but seems to be associated with social and institutional dynamics unrelated to fundamentals. CSR information seems to be hard to understand and interpret objectively and not all information about CSR actions is equal in terms of value-relevance. Furthermore, the results show that CSR increases mispricing less in periods of crisis. We support, therefore, the prospect theory (Tversky and Kahneman, 1979) suggesting that in periods of negative shocks, “noise” traders limit their trading positions which decreases the likelihood of exploiting “noise” speculative trading. Investors are seeking an insurance or protection against their exposure to many dramatic and unexpected news in periods of high pessimistic sentiment. We support the findings of Lins et al. (2017) by confirming that CSR represents an insurance-like mechanism in time of crisis. In chapter 3, we investigate the impact of CSR on the first source of mispricing: investor sentiment. We find that CSR enhances mood effects and other “irrational” factors affecting the decision-making process of investors, in line with the socio-psychological theory (Orlitzky, 2013). The complexity of the CSR concept and its ambivalent impact on firm value and information asymmetry creates “noise” in financial markets which in turn leads to investor irrationality. The results in time of crisis show a significant and negative relationship between CSR and investor sentiment, which is in line with our previous results and with the empirical evidence of Lins et al. (2017). The relationship between CSR and investor sentiment seems to be more complex than we expected. When “all is well”, investors see CSR as an unnecessary drag to firms’ performance. However, when “things turn bad” they see CSR as an “insurance-like” protection (Godfrey, 2005). Finally, in chapter 4 we examine the impact of CSR on the second source of mispricing: limits to arbitrage. Our results support the shareholder theory (Friedman, 1970) suggesting that CSR is positively related to limits to arbitrage related to information uncertainty since it is a value destroying activity that generates additional costs and increases the volatility of future cash-flows. We also find that CSR may dampen limits to arbitrage related to transactions costs through its negative impact on market liquidity, supporting the agency perspective (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). Our results are also consistent with the overinvestment hypothesis (Barnea and Rubin, 2010) suggesting that CSR and firm idiosyncratic risk are positively related due to managerial entrenchment. Socially responsible firms exhibit a higher degree of limits to arbitrage, therefore making arbitrage more risky and costly. Overall, our results suggest that CSR performance is a significant determinant of market efficiency

The stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. Subsequent research has also shown that the cross-section of stock returns is impacted differently by inflation. This cross-sectional variance across risky and safe stocks makes one of the most puzzling anomalies, risk (beta) anomaly, stronger in inflationary periods. This chapter tests the hypothesis that higher inflation leads to stronger mispricing of risk in stock market due to money illusion effect in Turkey, one of the emerging countries afflicted with perennial high inflation. The results show that although money illusion and mispricing were not visibly present in hyper-inflationary period in 1990s, the anomalous pricing of risky securities was remarkably high in inflationary periods over the last two decades, with a distinct mispricing due to the inflationary pressure that commenced with the COVID-19 pandemic. These varying results across the vastly different inflation regimes can be explained by rational inattention and impact of past experience of inflation on investment behavior.