Academic literature on the topic 'Strictly consistent scoring function'

AbstractIdentification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration of risk measure estimates and to compare their performance with other estimates, e.g. in backtesting. A risk measure is called identifiable (elicitable) if it admits a strict identification function (strictly consistent scoring function). We consider measures of systemic risk introduced in Feinstein et al. (SIAM J. Financial Math. 8:672–708, 2017). Since these are set-valued, we work within the theoretical framework of Fissler et al. (preprint, available online at arXiv:1910.07912v2, 2020) for forecast evaluation of set-valued functionals. We construct oriented selective identification functions, which induce a mixture representation of (strictly) consistent scoring functions. Their applicability is demonstrated with a comprehensive simulation study.

To learn about the health care of athletes in the knee joint, real-time to monitor the health of the human knee joint according to the cloud. The system uses a depth camera to collect the data information of the human lower limb alignment and obtains the spatial coordinate position of the human lower limb alignment through deep learning; then analyzes and processes the video sequence of the human lower limb alignment, including the wavelet function decomposition of the lower limb alignment information and reconstruction, and finally, the monitoring results were obtained by the knee joint scoring method. The system has completed the design of software and hardware and realized the method of extracting the coordinate information of the main joint points of the human body based on neural network. The health monitoring algorithm finally obtained the knee joint health status of the subjects through the evaluation system. By comparing the real health status of the subjects, the reliability of this research work was verified. The experiment shows that the monitoring error of the system is less than 10%, and the overall error is only 6%. The KSS standard score of the subjects is consistent with the monitoring and evaluation of the system, and the score trend is basically the same. For the situation that the overall score of the system is lower than the KSS standard, after communication and analysis with orthopaedic experts. It is speculated that it may be due to the subjective estimation of the subjects when measuring KSS, and the system monitoring algorithm is relatively strict and more objective. It is proved that the system designed in this paper can effectively monitor the health of athletes’ knee joint.

In this paper, we develop strictly proper scoring rules that may be used to evaluate the accuracy of a sequence of probabilistic forecasts. In practice, when forecasts are submitted for multiple uncertainties, competing forecasts are ranked by their cumulative or average score. Alternatively, one could score the implied joint distributions. We demonstrate that these measures of forecast accuracy disagree under some commonly used rules. Furthermore, and most importantly, we show that forecast rankings can depend on the selected scoring procedure. In other words, under some scoring rules, the relative ranking of probabilistic forecasts does not depend solely on the information content of those forecasts and the observed outcome. Instead, the relative ranking of forecasts is a function of the process by which those forecasts are evaluated. As an alternative, we describe additive and strongly additive strictly proper scoring rules, which have the property that the score for the joint distribution is equal to a sum of scores for the associated marginal and conditional distributions. We give methods for constructing additive rules and demonstrate that the logarithmic score is the only strongly additive rule. Finally, we connect the additive properties of scoring rules with analogous properties for a general class of entropy measures.

AbstractProper scoring rules are scoring methods that incentivize honest reporting of subjective probabilities, where an agent strictly maximizes his expected score by reporting his true belief. The implicit assumption behind proper scoring rules is that agents are risk neutral. Such an assumption is often unrealistic when agents are human beings. Modern theories of choice under uncertainty based on rank-dependent utilities assert that human beings weight nonlinear utilities using decision weights, which are differences between weighting functions applied to cumulative probabilities.In this paper, I investigate the reporting behavior of an agent with a rank-dependent utility when he is rewarded using a proper scoring rule tailored to his utility function. I show that such an agent misreports his true belief by reporting a vector of decision weights. My findings thus highlight the risk of utilizing proper scoring rules without prior knowledge about all the components that drive an agent’s attitude towards uncertainty. On the positive side, I discuss how tailored proper scoring rules can effectively elicit weighting functions. Moreover, I show how to obtain an agent’s true belief from his misreported belief once the weighting functions are known.

In this study, fifty-one iconic tetrel bonding complexes were studied using the block localized wave function (BLW) method which can derive the self-consistent wavefunction for an electron-localized (diabatic) state where charge transfer is strictly deactivated.

The parallel microfluidic cytometer (PMC) is an imaging flow cytometer that operates on statistical analysis of low-pixel-count, one-dimensional (1D) line scans. It is highly efficient in data collection and operates on suspension cells. In this article, we present a supervised automated pipeline for the PMC that minimizes operator intervention by incorporating multivariate logistic regression for data scoring. We test the self-tuning statistical algorithms in a human primary T-cell activation assay in flow using nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) translocation as a readout and readily achieve an average Z′ of 0.55 and strictly standardized mean difference of 13 with standard phorbol myristate acetate/ionomycin induction. To implement the tests, we routinely load 4 µL samples and can readout 3000 to 9000 independent conditions from 15 mL of primary human blood (buffy coat fraction). We conclude that the new technology will support primary-cell protein-localization assays and “on-the-fly” data scoring at a sample throughput of more than 100,000 wells per day and that it is, in principle, consistent with a primary pharmaceutical screen.

AbstractWe prove that a form of the Erdӧs property (consistent with V = L[Hω2] and strictly weaker than the Weak Chang's Conjecture at ω1), together with Bounded Martin's Maximum implies that Woodin's principle ψAC holds, and therefore . We also prove that ψAC implies that every function f: ω1 → ω1 is bounded by some canonical function on a club and use this to produce a model of the Bounded Semiproper Forcing Axiom in which Bounded Martin's Maximum fails.

Abstract Background: There is no consensus regarding assessment of the brain function functional system (FS) of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to describe brain function FS assessment criteria used by Argentinian neurologists and, based on the results, propose redefined brain function FS criteria. Methods: A structured survey was conducted of 113 Argentinian neurologists. Considering the survey results, we decided to redefine the brain function FS scoring using the Brief International Cognitive Assessment for MS (BICAMS) battery. For 120 adult patients with MS we calculated the EDSS score without brain function FS (basal EDSS) and compared it with the EDSS score after adding the modified brain function FS (modified EDSS). Results: Of the 93 neurologists analyzed, 14% reported that they did not assess brain function FS, 35% reported that they assessed it through a nonstructured interview, and the remainder used other tools. Significant differences were found in EDSS scores before and after the inclusion of BICAMS (P < .001). Redefining the brain function FS, 15% of patients modified their basal EDSS score, as did 20% of those with a score of 4.0 or less. Conclusions: The survey results show the importance of unifying the brain function FS scoring criteria in calculating the EDSS score. While allowing more consistent brain function FS scoring, including the modified brain function FS led to a change in EDSS score in many patients, particularly in the lower range of EDSS scores. Considering the relevance of the EDSS for monitoring patients with MS and for decision making, it is imperative to further validate the modified brain function FS scoring.

AbstractWe examine recursive monotonic functions on the Lindenbaum algebra of $EA$. We prove that no such function sends every consistent φ to a sentence with deductive strength strictly between φ and $\left( {\varphi \wedge Con\left( \varphi \right)} \right)$. We generalize this result to iterates of consistency into the effective transfinite. We then prove that for any recursive monotonic function f, if there is an iterate of $Con$ that bounds f everywhere, then f must be somewhere equal to an iterate of $Con$.

Insurance is a risk transfer from the insured to the insurer. In general insurance companies are grouped into two types that life insurance and general insurance. For measure risk in general insurance the method used is using a measure of risk. In the study of risk management, there is one method forming risk measure known a distortion function. The purpose of this study is prove theorems of properties a measure of coherent and consistent risk of distortion. In this study explain the formation of a measure of risk distortion using a distortion function, indicates that if the distortion function is a concave function and shows the consistency of risk distortion measures preserve second order stochastic dominance and show coherence and consistency several of distortion risk measures. The results of this study concave distortion function is a necessary condition and sufficient condition for coherence and a strictly concave distortion function is a necessary condition and sufficient condition for strict ordering consistent with preserve second order stochastic dominance.

Abstract A hierarchy of type universes is a rudimentary ingredient in the type theories of many proof assistants to prevent the logical inconsistency resulting from combining dependent functions and the type-in-type axiom. In this work, we argue that a universe hierarchy is not the only option for universes in type theory. Taking inspiration from Leivant’s Stratified System F, we introduce Stratified Type Theory (), where rather than stratifying universes by levels, we stratify typing judgements and restrict the domain of dependent functions to strictly lower levels. Even with type-in-type, this restriction suffices to enforce consistency. In , we consider a number of extensions beyond just stratified dependent functions. First, the subsystem employs McBride’s crude-but-effective stratification (also known as displacement) as a simple form of level polymorphism where global definitions with concrete levels can be displaced uniformly to any higher level. Second, to recover some expressivity lost due to the restriction on dependent function domains, the full includes a separate nondependent function type with a floating domain whose level matches that of the overall function type. Finally, we have implemented a prototype type checker for extended with datatypes and inference for level and displacement annotations, along with a small core library. We have proven to be consistent and to be type safe, but consistency of the full remains an open problem, largely due to the interaction between floating functions and cumulativity of judgements. Nevertheless, we believe to be consistent, and as evidence have verified the ill-typedness of some well-known type-theoretic paradoxes using our implementation.

Noonan syndrome (NS) is a genetic disorder characterized by short stature, typical facial dysmorphology, and congenital heart defects. Noonan syndrome may occur on a sporadic basis or in a pattern consistent with autosomal dominant inheritance, with a predominance of maternal transmission (Noonan 1994). In approximately 50% of the patients with definite NS, a missense mutation is found in the PTPN11 gene on chromosome 12. PTPN11 is one of the genes of the Ras-MAPK pathway, a signal transduction cascade that has been studied extensively for its role in human oncogenesis. The signaling cascade regulates cell proliferation, differentiation, and survival. PTPN11 encodes the nonreceptor protein tyrosine phosphatase SHP-2. The mutations associated with NS result in a gain of function of SHP-2 (Tartaglia and Gelb 2005). Recently, activating mutations in other genes of the Ras-MAPK pathway (SOS1, KRAS, RAF1) were found as the causative dominant mutations in NS. These findings establish hyperactive Ras as a cause of the developmental abnormalities seen in NS (Schubbert et al. 2007). The diagnosis is made on clinical grounds, by observation of key features. Establishing the diagnosis can be very difficult, especially at an older age. There is great variability in expression, and mild expression is likely to be overlooked. Improvement of the phenotype occurs with increasing age. The age-related change of facial appearance can be subtle, especially at older age. Several scoring systems have been devised to guide the diagnostic process). The most recent scoring system was developed in 1994 (Van der Burgt et al. 1994). The incidence of NS is estimated to be between 1:1,000 and 1:2,500 live births (Mendez and Opitz 1985). Further details on the various medical aspects of NS (e.g., congenital heart defects, skeletal and urethrogenital abnormalities, growth delay) can be found in Van der Burgt (2007). A number of conditions have phenotypes strikingly similar to NS. The first is Turner syndrome (45, X0), a well-known chromosomal abnormality in girls. A group of distinct syndromes with partially overlapping phenotypes also exist in which causative mutations are also found in genes of the RAS-MAPK pathway.

Understanding household farming behavior among smallholders is an essential element of land-change studies inasmuch as a considerable portion of the world is dominated by land-users of this kind. Smallholders (peasants in some literature) are especially important within the tropical forests of Mexico, and the southern Yucatán peninsular region is no exception. This region, as elsewhere in the tropics, is characterized by underdeveloped markets and the consequent partial engagement of frontier farmers as market participants. Sparse exchange opportunities resulting from remoteness, low population density, and poorly developed infrastructure constrain these farmers to maintain a strong focus on consumption production, especially in terms of staple foods. Indeed, until the late 1960s, households in the region were totally subsistence-based and had virtually no experience with the agricultural market. Today, smallholder farmers retain consumption production, though a growing proportion also produce crops for sale. While this dual position in the market and in subsistence is an increasingly prevalent feature of smallholder farmers throughout the developing world, studies of deforestation commonly ascribe to them a wholly commercial orientation by employing profit-maximizing theoretical structures as a basis for econometrically modeling their land-use decisions (e.g. Chomitz and Gray 1996; Cropper, Griffiths, and Mani 1999; Cropper, Puri, and Griffiths 2001; Nelson, Harris, and Stone 2001; Nelson and Hellerstein 1997; Panayotou and Sungsuwan 1994; Pfaff 1999). In essence, the assertion of profit-maximization rests on the assumption that agents are fully engaged in markets, from which it follows that production, being strictly a function of farm technology and exogenously given input and output prices, is entirely independent of consumption and labor supply (Barnum and Squire 1979). This chapter explores the implications of relaxing the perfect-markets assumption for the modeling of semi-subsistence and commercial land-use decisions. By introducing variables measuring the consumption side of the colonist household, evidence is presented to suggest that, consistent with mixed or hybrid production themes (e.g. Singh, Squire, and Strauss 1986; Turner and Brush 1987), farmers operating in a context of thin product and/or labor markets do not exhibit behavior corresponding to that of a commercially oriented profit-maximizing farm.

Random Utility Models (RUMs), which subsume Plackett-Luce model (PL) as a special case, are among the most popular models for preference learning. In this paper, we consider RUMs with features and their mixtures, where each alternative has a vector of features, possibly different across agents. Such models significantly generalize the standard PL and RUMs, but are not as well investigated in the literature. We extend mixtures of RUMs with features to models that generate incomplete preferences and characterize their identifiability. For PL, we prove that when PL with features is identifiable, its MLE is consistent with a strictly concave objective function under mild assumptions, by characterizing a bound on root-mean-square-error (RMSE), which naturally leads to a sample complexity bound. We also characterize identifiability of more general RUMs with features and propose a generalized RBCML to learn them. Our experiments on synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of MLE on PL with features with tradeoffs between statistical efficiency and computational efficiency. Our experiments on real-world data show the prediction power of PL with features and its mixtures.

eXtended Finite Element Method (X-FEM) is used to model a cracked structure without meshing explicitly the crack. Indeed, the crack is represented by a discontinuity of the displacement field through additional degrees of freedom using Heaviside type function or derived from the Irwin’s singular fields. Initially, the stress integration in the XFEM framework supposed to divide the cut elements into subtriangles that are conform to the crack. This was motivated in order to integrate the behaviour accurately on both sides of the crack in particular at proximity of the crack tip where singular enrichments are present. This strategy induces field projections from the usual Gauss point configuration to a variable new one that depends on the crack position in the element. For ductile fracture modelization, this approach is not applicable, because in presence of large scale yield, the projection of internal variable fields is not conservative, in particular at proximity of the crack tip. In order to circumvent this problem, a new integration strategy was proposed by B. Prabel. It consists in using 64 Gauss points that are placed without regards to the crack position. This simple integration scheme permits to take implicitly into account the crack position and the fields in the element in an accurate and consistent way. This strategy was used in problem calculation for which the plastic radius remained small. It allowed introducing the overintegrated elements in the probable propagation zone, just before plastification. In the case of ductile tearing, the plasticity is not confined near the crack tip and an improvement of the proposed strategy is made. This is then used to model large ductile crack growth in a ductile ferritic steel. To validate the predictions, the modelization is compared to a second F.E. calculation using the node release technique for the crack propagation. It is then shown that the two predictions are strictly equivalents.

This report analyses the Technological Innovation System (TIS) of Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in Austria. The study’s scope is consistent with the IEA PVPS Task 15 report [1].The analysis aims to facilitate and support the innovation, development, and implementation of industrial solutions of BIPV technologies. In Austria, the use of BIPV is still a niche application and covers under 2% of all implemented PV systems [1]. BIPV technology in Austria has historically developed with the support of different public financial incentives, national and European. The history of BIPV is somehow tightened to the history of PV. The first BIPV prototypes were developed by PV companies in the framework of national or European research activities, with the first development and innovation projects starting around 2003. In general, it should be mentioned that in the last years, PV and BIPV companies have increased specialization in the production of BIPV, especially colored and semitransparent PV modules. In this regard, a wide range of variants are offered (printing, coating, films). The colored components are mainly purchased from glass companies or polymer film producers. Another trend in Austria is the production of transparent glass/glass modules for integration in facades, skylights, winter gardens, or courtyard roofing. In 2020, the government of Austria presented a program called EAG (Erneuerabre Ausbau Gesetz) or Renewable Expansion Act [3.3.1 Hard institutions]containing certain working points to be implemented by 2024. Some of the measures are directly or indirectly relevant to the BIPV development and installation. Such as the PV encapsulation films using interference pigment technology from Lenzing Plastics. This TIS assessed the BIPV market through eight functional areas and provided the following results: ⁃ The analysis of knowledge development showed that it can be classified as moderate. On the one hand, there are not enough training and further education opportunities in the field of BIPV available, but on the other hand, the PV manufacturers and research institutions are driving forward the development of knowledge in the field of BIPV. ⁃ Knowledge dissemination is well advanced internationally within the research community but insufficient at the practical, national level, particularly between the PV industry and the construction sector. Architects are demanding more information from PV manufacturers and suppliers, who share their information only irregularly with the architectural community. Usually, architects obtain this information from PV technology platforms through workshops, brochures, and projects. However, architects have to engage with it more extensively. The goal is to make BIPV more appealing to architects. Thus, we have to summarize that knowledge dissemination is inadequate/weak. ⁃ Entrepreneurial willingness to experiment can be classified as moderate. Overall, it can be said that there are four players in the Austrian BIPV market and a substantial number of newcomers and small innovative players who could take the role of innovation drivers. However, there are too few opportunities for highly specialized small companies. ⁃ Resource mobilization is well positioned financially and in terms of network services. However, and this is essential if we want to expand the BIPV market strongly, there is a lack of skilled personnel (human resources) to carry out the expansion, which is why this function is rated to only be moderate. ⁃ The scoring of social capital is weak. The connection where there is a lack of communication is between the (BI)PV planner and the architects. In most projects, the (BI)PV planner is not involved in the early stages of the building design process. In addition, conventional PV planners have no experience or are hesitant of planning BIPV systems. ⁃ The legitimacy is moderate, but as the acceptance of PV improves from year to year, the chance of better acceptance of PV integrated into the building, i.e., BIPV, also increases. However, there are still reservations and resistance towards individual, specific BIPV projects. This resistance could be reduced by increasing knowledge about the multifunctional possibilities of BIPV at the decision-maker and customer stage as well as by showing best practice examples - Guidance of the search is moderate, as there are no specific political targets for BIPV, but there are for PV. However, the government and relevant authorities aim to implement clean energy development positively and apply applicable policies and regulations. There is an increased subsidy for innovative PV solutions [2] which also includes BIPV. ⁃ It can be stated that the market formation of BIPV in Austria still offers room for improvement. When it comes to governmental-driven incentives and support for the BIPVmarket development, the missing technical standards (e.g., fire safety regulations) and the absence of regulatory obligations on renewable energies in the local building codes are the biggest weaknesses. The structural and functional analysis is followed by a coupled structural-functional analysis. This assessment will help identify weaknesses and strengths and recommend strategies that will enable the growth of BIPV from a niche market to a major market segment. The aim is for photovoltaics (PV) on buildings to be primarily designed as Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) to reduce additional costs. This, combined with the avoided costs for other components of the building, should result in cost parity with Building-Applied Photovoltaics (BAPV). It is also crucial to encourage all manufacturers of building envelope components to ensure that their products offer the dual benefit of serving as building components while also generating electricity. By doing so, such products can become standard in the industry. The transition from BAPV to BIPV was already analyzed in a 2015 BIPV brochure [2] from the Austrian Photovoltaics Technology Platform (TPPV), which discussed the advantages of an integrated solution versus an attached solution and outlined the necessary steps to make BIPV the standard for building PV. The recommendations are summarized as follows: i) It is important to involve (BI)PV in the early stages of the building planning process. ii) successful implementation projects must be made public through various channels to increase knowledge about BIPV technology and its possibilities (e.g., lighthouse projects in public buildings). iii) PV standards and construction codes have to be harmonized. iv) The Austrian government should stipulate the use of PV in the obligatory building specifications. v) Another recommendation would be to enact a law requiring every sealed area to be checked for dual use with (BI)PV. One positive development worth mentioning is the Climate Fund's Lighthouse call, which focuses specifically on integrated PV and offers higher grants for BIPV than the Renewable Expansion Act] , demonstrating increased interest and commitment to this technology. In addition, the TPPV Innovation Awards, which were awarded for the first time specifically for building-integrated PV and now include other topics of PV integration outside of buildings, are a sign that the industry is broadening its perspective and recognizing the importance of BIPV beyond traditional applications. These developments could help to further promote the acceptance and deployment of BIPV and drive innovation in this area. Nevertheless, it is important to consider the significantly higher costs of BIPV products, as well as the greatly increased planning effort that arises when PV becomes an integral building product.