Academic literature on the topic 'System GMM'

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics<br>This paper reviews how adjustment costs and rigid labor legislation affect input factor adjustment throughout the business cycle. Estimates of adjustment speed of different types of labor are provided and their causes and consequences discussed.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1952283 bytes, checksum: 5a9f80c58d2a69a976645012d5d1ff8e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-14<br>Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico<br>This paper aims to explain the theme of public spending and its relationship with economic growth, bringing a literature review national, international and an analysis of the influence of certain expenditures by function on economic growth in municipalities from Paraiba. Such expenses would be with: Assistance and Social Welfare, Health and Sanitation, Education and Culture, Public Safety, Housing and Urban Development, Legislative, Administration and Planning. For this analysis, we used panel data from a sample of 212 of the 223 municipalities from Paraíba between 2000 and 2008, a dynamic approach by Generalized Method of Moments-System (System-GMM) proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995) and developed by Blundell and Bond (1998). And as a theoretical model, we adopted an extension of the production function of Barro (1990). The proxy for the stock of physical capital is the consumption of electricity for industrial and commercial city of Paraiba, whereas the stock of human capital was created by counting the number of people with eight years of study, plus the flow of conclusive primary education by municipality and also the number of people aged 12 or more of study, along with the flow conclusive school each year by the municipality from Paraíba. To achieve the proposed objective, the study tried to find out what is the relationship between public spending and economic growth of municipalities from Paraíba. Overall, the results corroborate the literature, the point at which government spending influence the product formation and public investment in physical capital and human capital can raise the productivity of the economy. The results show that only the capital human measured by elementary school, was also relevant for the growth of municipalities from Paraíba and the impact is greater than this physical capital. Spending on Public Safety, Welfare and Pension Plan, Planning and Administration and bear no relation to the product. Legislative expenses had the highest elasticity product, while spending on Education and Culture, Health and Sanitation, and Housing and Urban Development have low elasticity products, thus influencing modest economic growth.<br>O presente trabalho tem o intuito de explanar o tema dos gastos públicos e sua relação com o crescimento econômico, trazendo uma revisão da literatura nacional, da internacional e uma análise da influência de algumas despesas por função sobre o crescimento econômico nos municípios paraibanos. Tais despesas seriam com: Assistência e Previdência Social, Saúde e Saneamento, Educação e Cultura, Segurança Pública, Urbanismo e Habitação, Legislativo, Administração e Planejamento. Para essa análise, foram utilizados dados em painel de uma amostra de 212 dos 223 municípios paraibanos no período de 2000 a 2008, em uma abordagem dinâmica por Método dos Momentos Generalizado-Sistema (System-GMM), proposto por Arellano e Bond (1991), Arellano e Bover (1995) e desenvolvido por Blundell e Bond (1998). E como modelo teórico, adotou-se uma extensão da função de produção de Barro (1990). A proxy utilizada para o estoque de capital físico é o consumo de energia elétrica industrial e comercial por município paraibano; já o estoque de capital humano foi criado a partir da contagem do número de pessoas com 8 anos de estudo, somado ao fluxo de concludentes do ensino fundamental por município, também, o número de pessoas com 12 anos ou mais de estudo, somado ao fluxo de concludentes do ensino médio a cada ano, por município paraibano. Para a consecução do objetivo proposto, no presente trabalho tentou-se encontrar para os municípios paraibanos, qual a relação entre as despesas públicas e o seu crescimento econômico (PIB per capita municipal). Em termos gerais, os resultados corroboram com a literatura, no ponto em que os gastos públicos influenciam na formação do produto, e investimentos públicos em Capital Físico e Capital Humano podem elevar a produtividade da economia. Os resultados mostram que, apenas o Capital Humano, medido pelo ensino fundamental, se mostrou relevante para o crescimento dos municípios paraibanos e que o impacto deste é maior do que o Capital Físico. Os gastos com Segurança Pública, Assistência e Previdência, e Administração e Planejamento não apresentam relação com o produto. As despesas com Legislativo apresentaram a maior elasticidade-produto, enquanto que os gastos com Educação e Cultura, Saúde e Saneamento, e Habitação e Urbanismo têm baixa elasticidade-produto, influenciando de forma modesta o crescimento econômico.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>Este trabalho procura investigar a relação existente entre a situação financeira das empresas portuguesas e os seus custos de financiamento, utilizando-se para tal informação detalhada a nível microeconómico relativa a estes agentes económicos. Esta informação foi obtida a partir de um painel de dados composto por mais de 30.000 empresas não financeiras portuguesas, que integram a Central de Balanços do Banco de Portugal. De modo a garantir a obtenção de resultados fiáveis procurou-se aplicar uma metodologia econométrica relativamente recente, o system GMM, que permite explorar de forma dinâmica a informação contida em dados de painel. Os resultados apresentados confirmam a existência, em Portugal, de uma relação inversa entre a situação financeira das empresas e o seu custo de financiamento, avaliado por uma taxa de juro implícita estimada neste trabalho. Isto é consistente com a hipótese subjacente à teoria do acelerador financeiro, que sugere que melhorias na saúde financeira da empresa implicam uma diminuição no seu custo de financiamento.<br>This work intends to evaluate the relationship between the financial situation of Portuguese firms and their funding costs. In order to achieve such objective, we used detailed information on these economic agents at the micro level. This information was based on a panel dataset comprising more than 30.000 non-financial Portuguese firms, which is part of the Central Balance-Sheet Database held by Banco de Portugal. With the aim of obtaining sound and reliable empirical results, we applied a relatively recent econometric methodology, usually known as system GMM. Such technique makes possible the dynamic analysis of the information contained within panel datasets. The results obtained confirm the existence, in Portugal, of an inverse relation between firms' financial situation and their funding costs, measured by our estimates of an implicit interest rate. This result is consistent with the hypothesis underlying the financial accelerator theory, which suggests that improvements in firms' financial health imply a decrease in their funding costs.

Air pollution (in terms of PM2.5) is severe in developing countries, and the rapid population growth accompanied by urbanization may limit their potential economic development. This paper aims to investigate if urbanization and economic freedom cause higher levels of PM2.5 in developing countries. By measuring the potential effect of economic freedom on PM2.5 with the Ease of Doing Business-score by the World Bank, a new measure is introduced to the research on socioeconomic factors’ influence on air pollution. It is done by running both fixed effects- and system GMM regressions on a panel consisting of 63 low- and lower-middle-income economies between 2010-2017. The results indicate that PM2.5 is insensitive to changes in both variables and that urbanization’s effect on PM2.5 depends on the level of economic freedom and vice versa. However, both estimators may suffer from bias, and thus, the real relationship of urbanization and economic freedom on PM2.5 remains uncertain.

Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e Previsão<br>Esta dissertação analiza técnicas de correção do efeito do enviesamento que pode ocorrer no caso dos dados utilizados apresentarem valores em falta. Tais técnicas serão aplicadas a um modelo económico para caracterização da margem líquida de juros (MLJ) bancária, utilizando dados provinientes 15 países que pertencem ao sistema bancário da União Europeia (UE15). As variáveis que caracterizam os bancos são observados entre de 2004 e 2010. E são escolhidas seguindo Valverde et al. (2007). Adicionalmente aos regressores são acrescentadas algumas variáveis macroeconómicas. A seleção proviniente da falta de alguns valores para os regressores é tratada através da ponderação probabilistica inversa. Os ponderadores são aplicados a estimadores GMM para um modelo de dados de painel dinámico.<br>This thesis discusses techniques to correct for the potentially biasing effects of missing data. We apply the techniques on an economic model that explains the Net Interest margin (NIM) of banks, using data from 15 countries that are part of the European Union (EU15) banking system. The variables that describe banks cover the period 2004 and 2010. We use the variables that were also used in Carbó-Valverde and Fernndez (2007). In addition, also macroeconomic variables are used as regressors. The selection that occurs as a consequence of missing values in these regressor variables is dealt with by means of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) techniques. The weights are applied to a GMM estimator for a dynamic panel data model that would have been consistent in the absence of missing data.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-01-09T16:22:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by Diamantino Mayra (mayra.diamantino@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-01-31T11:22:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-31T11:22:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marcelferreiradeoliveira.pdf: 2312394 bytes, checksum: f33ded8f4be15a1631188b06f654c1a6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-11<br>O objetivo desta dissertação é estudar a dinâmica da produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) através de um modelo de fatores dinâmicos e verificar a importância do catch up e outros determinantes da PTF por meio do estimador do GMM Sistêmico, utilizando dados da Penn World Table 9.0 entre 1970 e 2014. Devido à existência de transbordamentos tecnológicos e comércio internacional, é esperado que existam variações comuns entre as produtividades de diferente países. Sendo assim, estimamos um modelo de fatores dinâmicos para as PTFs de um conjunto de países tecnologicamente avançados para capturar esses efeitos. Dessa estimativa fomos capazes de extrair seu fator comum e usá-la como proxy para PTF mundial. Isso nos permite incluir a tendência comum na regressão da PTF e estimar seus efeitos sobre a PTF. Nosso fator comum estimado reflete bem aos principais choques de produtividade que ocorreram no período e a sensibilidade de cada país com relação ao fator comum parece estar negativamente relacionada com o nível de desenvolvimento de cada país – essa correlação parece estar de acordo com o argumento de que há um efeito de catch up na produtividade: países mais distantes da fronteira têm crescimento maior por absorverem mais da tecnologia mundial. Além disso, nossas estimativas para o painel dinâmico estimado utilizando este fator estimado reforça esse resultado.<br>The purpose of this dissertation is to study the global dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) through a dynamic factors model and verify the importance of the catch up effect and other determinants of TFP through the System GMM estimator, using data from the Penn World Table 9.0 from 1970 to 2014. Because there’re technological spillovers and international trade, it would be expected to see the existence of common variations in the productivity of different countries. Therefore, we apply a dynamic factor model to these productivities and its growth rates in order to capture these effects. These estimates allow us to extract the common factor and use it as a proxy for the world TFP. It allows us to include the common trend in the dynamic equation in the TFP regression in order to estimate its effects on the TFP. Our estimated common factor captures well the main productivity shocks that occurred in the period, and the sensibility of each country to the common factor seems to be negatively related to its country level of technological development – this correlation is in accordance with the argument that there’s a catch up effect in productivity: countries more distant from the frontier have higher growth rates because there is more room to absorb from the global technology. Moreover, our estimates for the dynamic panel using this estimated factor reinforces this result.

O consenso entre os organismos internacionais de cooperação para o comércio e para o desenvolvimento econômico está em reconhecer na capacidade de inovar a principal fonte para a promoção da produtividade nas organizações. Parte do esforço brasileiro de construção e desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de inovação constituiu-se na criação de programas de incentivos fiscais, como forma de fazer avançar os investimentos em Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento & Inovação - P&D&I, provocando o setor privado a participar mais intensamente do processo de financiamento do desenvolvimento tecnológico. Uma década após a implementação do principal programa de incentivo fiscal à inovação no Brasil (Lei nº 11.196/05), é mister verificar se tais incentivos foram capazes de atingir os seus objetivos. A presente tese visa a avaliar: (i) qual a repercussão sobre os dispêndios com P&D&I da opção pela utilização dos incentivos fiscais concedidos pela Lei do Bem e (ii) quanto da renúncia fiscal, ou seja, dos créditos recebidos pelas empresas participantes deste programa, retornou em termos de investimentos em P&D&I ao longo do tempo. A metodologia empregada, propõe a estimação de um modelo empírico para os dispêndios em P&D&I, em que estes são explicados ora pela opção da empresa por utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem ora pela renúncia fiscal decorrente da utilização do mesmo programa, além de um conjunto de variáveis de controle associado às restrições de financiamento. Os testes estatísticos foram conduzidos para o agregado das companhias de capital aberto, registradas na BM&FBOVESPA em 2013, relativamente a seus desempenhos no período de 2008 a 2013. Os resultados, para dados em painel dinâmico, foram obtidos a partir do modelo GMM-System e apontam que a decisão de utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem está associada a um aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I, ao longo do tempo. Assim sendo, para cada ponto percentual de aumento na propensão das companhias em optar pelo uso da Lei do Bem espera-se de 0,65 a 0,85 pontos percentuais de aumento em seus dispêndios com P&D&I. Por outro lado, o aumento de um ponto percentual na renúncia fiscal gera uma expectativa de aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I das companhias, que pode variar de 0,26 a 0,40 pontos percentuais, ao longo do tempo<br>The consensus among international cooperation agencies for trade and economic development lies in recognizing in the ability to innovate the main source for promoting productivity in organizations. The Brazilian effort of construction and development of a national innovation system constituted the creation of tax incentive programs as a way to advance investments in Research, Development & Innovation - R&D&I, causing the private sector to participate more intensely financing process of technological development. A decade after the implementation of major tax incentive program for innovation in Brazil (Law nº. 11.196/05), it is necessary to verify that such incentives were able to achieve their goals. The present thesis aims at evaluating: (i) the impact on R&D&I expenditures of the option to use the tax incentives granted by the \"Lei do Bem\" and (ii) how much of tax waiver, that is to say, of the credits received by companies participating in this program, has returned in terms of R&D&I investments over time. The methodology to be used proposes the estimation of an empirical model for R&D&I expenditure, which are explained either by the company\'s option to use tax incentives of the \"Lei do Bem\" or by tax credits obtained due to the use of tax incentives program, in addition to a set of control variables associated with financing constraints. The statistical tests were conducted to the group of publicly traded companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in 2013, for their performances in the period 2008 to 2013. The results for the dynamic panel data were obtained from the GMM-System model and indicate that the decision to use the \"Lei do Bem\" tax incentives is associated with an increase in R&D&I expenditures over time. So that for each percentage point of increase in the propensity of companies to opt for the use of the \"Lei do Bem\", 0.65 to 0.85 percentage points of increase in R&D&I expenditures is expected. On the other hand, the increase of one percentage point in the tax waiver generates an expectation of increase in the R&D&I expenses of the companies, which can vary from 0.26 to 0.40 percentage points, over time

La présente thèse tente de savoir s’il est opportun pour les pays en développement les moins avancés de s’engager davantage dans le processus de globalisation financière pour promouvoir leur croissance, et si ce processus influence les effets des instabilités, financière et monétaire, sur cette dernière. A cette fin, la thèse se déroule en trois parties. Avant d’examiner le cadre théorique de la globalisation financière, la première partie esquisse sa genèse avec en arrière-fond la recherche d’une réponse au problème de sa régulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la littérature sur les effets de la globalisation financière sur la croissance, afin d’en tirer les enseignements pour une étude de 72 pays en développement à revenu bas de 1972 à 2011. La troisième partie se focalise sur les impacts de la globalisation financière et des deux instabilités considérées isolément, puis en interaction avec la globalisation sur la croissance à travers deux études empiriques basées sur le même cadre spatio-temporel que l’étude précédente. Ces dernières sont précédées par une revue des relations entre la globalisation financière, l’instabilité financière puis monétaire et la croissance, avec une analyse théorique de l’instabilité financière. Il en ressort que les instabilités, financière et monétaire, ont des effets négatifs sur la croissance, tandis que la globalisation financière, et en particulier la globalisation par l’investissement contrairement à celle par l’endettement, promeut les bienfaits des politiques économiques et du commerce extérieur, en plus de son effet positif direct sur la croissance même en présence des deux instabilités dont elle diminue les effets négatifs<br>This thesis examines whether or not it is beneficial for least developed countries to engage more in the process of financial globalization in pursuit of their economic growth, and if this process influences the effects of financial and monetary instability on the latter. This thesis is divided into three parts. Before examining the theoretical framework of financial globalization, the first part sketches its genesis on a background of the research for an answer to the problem of its regulation. The second part focuses on the literature on the impact of financial globalization on growth. This is done in order to draw lessons for the establishment of a study covering 72 low-income developing countries over the period 1972-2011. The third part centers on the impact on economic growth of financial globalization and the two aforementioned types of instability, discussed both separately and in conjunction. Evidence is provided by two empirical studies based on the same spatio-temporal framework as the previous one. These studies are preceded by a review of the literature on the relationship between financial globalization, financial and then monetary instability and growth, in addition to a theoretical analysis of financial instability. This illustrates that financial and monetary instability have negative effects on growth, while financial globalization and in particular investment-globalization, unlike indebtedness-globalization, promotes the benefits of macroeconomic policies and international trade. This can be find in addition to its direct positive effect on growth, even in the presence of the two instabilities of which it reduces the negative effects

Europe is in the midst of its deepest crisis since the 1930s where unsustainable debt-to-GDP levels are among the most alarming issues. It is so critical that it is unsure if the Euro can be saved. The risk of moral hazard increases within EMU when governments are taking too much risk in their public debt policies due to the anticipation that ECB or other Member States would eventually bail them out. Moreover, the SGP imposes restrictions on government deficits and debts but have previously failed to enforce them. The weakness seen in the past is that no sanctions have been put in place once the limits have been breached and the SGP is therefore incredible. Previous research on common pool and debt spillovers in a monetary union point to an upward drift of public debt as countries join the EMU. Does this argument hold true? In order to find out, 25 OECD countries between the years of 1995 and 2010 are analyzed using System GMM Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond one-step estimator. The primary balance, the interest payments, and GDP growth are regressed respectively in order to see through what channel EMU displays its effect. One regression will cover the entire time period and another will only cover the years from 1995 to 2007 in order to isolate the effects of the current crisis. The results, based on the years over the entire time period (including the crisis) suggest that the effect of an EMU Membership goes via the Interest payments which it is connected to positively. By using the equation of debt dynamics, the fact that net debt interest payments are higher for a country within EMU indicates, all else equal, that they have on average higher levels of debt. Nevertheless, this realization might be a crisis phenomenon and the implication of this is not clear. However more importantly, the regressions based on the years of 1995 and 2007 (prior to the crisis) did not display any significant results. These results indicate that there is no significant relationship between a country’s membership in EMU and its level of debt prior to the crisis.

Migration is a multidimensional phenomenon requiring an interdisciplinary approach. This thesis studies some economic aspects of the internal migration of labour. A model of migration as investment in human capital is applied throughout the thesis to study economic causes and consequences of internal migration on a micro level. Various predictions from the theory are verified on longitudinal micro data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. The thesis is composed of three essays: (1) Causes of migration, the individual level push and pull factors facilitating or hampering mobility and representing both costs and benefits to migration, are studied in Chapter 2. A binary dependent variable model for the likelihood of an individual migration decision is estimated on panel data from the HILDA survey by means of the probit model with individual random effects. The main results are that those not in the labour force, similarly to the unemployed, are more mobile than the employed; and that higher individual wages and greater remoteness from larger urban centres also increase the likelihood of migration. (2) Chapter 3 studies wage returns to internal migration. Evidence is sought for the theoretical predictions of the traditional human capital model of investment in migration about a positive wage premium: positive returns to migration distance and human capital. Using individual-level data from the HILDA Survey and applying a system GMM to a dynamic panel earnings model, it is found that in the short-run there are returns to distance which increase with the level of education and decline with the level of pre-migration wage. The conclusion is that internal migration in Australia is a good strategy only for better educated and lower income individuals. (3) Several theoretical models of migration destination search are presented in Chapter 4. It discusses two models of migration as an outcome of the fixed-sample-size search and the sequential search. A model with endogenous investment in search activity demonstrates that lower initial utility increases chances to participate in search and that the likelihood of migration depends on budget constraints: those of the poor who can afford to buy relatively more information are expected to gain more than others.