Academic literature on the topic 'System "scenario - development strategy"'
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Journal articles on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
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Oleksandr, Milov, Yevseiev Serhii, Aleksiyev Volodymyr, et al. "DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERACTING AGENTS BEHAVIOR SCENARIO IN THE CYBER SECURITY SYSTEM." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 5, no. 9 (101) (2019): 46–57. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2019.181047.
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The results of modeling and analysis of scenarios of the behavior of interacting agents in conditions of cyber conflict are presented. General approaches to the development of a scenario of the behavior of antagonistic agents are presented. The definition of the scenario is given and the factors determining the scenario of behavior are highlighted. The given scenarios are determined by such factors as the ratio of the capabilities of the attacking and the defending sides, the presence or absence of information exchange between security agents, and the time of switching to a new attack vector. The value of the time of switching to a new attack vector is found, at which the interaction is more stable. This indicates that the reaction of the defense side should not be purely reactive, and the “wait and see” strategy is not always the best. Modeling and analysis of the results were carried out in the conditions of information exchange between agents of the protection system and in the absence of such an exchange. The advantages and disadvantages of this behavior are noted. It is shown that when changing the time of switching to a new attack vector, not only the financial indicators of the activity of the participants in cyber conflict change, but also the nature of the interaction. The value of the time of switching to a new attack vector was found, in which the interaction is more stable, which suggests that the reaction of the defense side should not be purely reactive, and the “wait and see” strategy is not always the best. It is shown how the proposed approach can be used to justify the choice of a strategy for agent behavior in security systems, as well as for economic assessments of countermeasures and their deterrent effect on attackers. The proposed scenarios can be considered as a useful tool for assessing investments in the security of the business process circuit by decision makers
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Bashmakov, I. "Russian Energy Sector: Inertia Strategy or Efficiency Strategy?" Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 8 (August 20, 2007): 104–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-8-104-122.
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The paper presents a vision of Russian energy future before 2020. The scenario approach is required to identify potential energy supply and demand future trajectories for Russia facing uncertainties of both global energy system evolution and domestic demographic and economic development in 2007-2020. It allows for assessing energy demand by sectors under different investment, technological and energy pricing policies favoring the least cost balancing of energy supply options and energy efficiency improvements to sustain dynamic economic growth. The given approach provides grounds for evaluation of different energy policies effectiveness. Three scenarios - "Inertia Strategy", "Energy Centrism", and "Efficiency Strategy - Four I" - integral-innovative-intellectual-individual oriented energy systems - are considered in the paper. It shows that ignorance of the last scenario escalates either energy shortages in the country or Russian economy overloading with energy supply investments both preventing from sustaining rates of economic growth which have recently been demonstrated by Russia.
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Harada, H., S. Matsui, N. T. Dong, Y. Shimizu, and S. Fujii. "Incremental sanitation improvement strategy: comparison of options for Hanoi, Vietnam." Water Science and Technology 62, no. 10 (2010): 2225–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2010.508.
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Urban sanitation issues should be tackled strategically, and may be addressed effectively when sewerage development is pursued in conjunction with complementary sanitation measures. Five sanitation improvement scenarios employing sewerage, night-soil collection-and-treatment (NSCT) system, and/or septic-tank improvement by annual desludging were analyzed from the perspective of COD loads, total nitrogen loads, and cost under the conditions found in Hanoi, Vietnam. Compared to the development of sewerage alone, the scenario of developing NSCT systems in a complementary manner with sewerage development was estimated to be the most effective for a rapid decrease of both COD and total nitrogen loads. However, it may be difficult in some cases to replace ordinary water-flush toilets by the micro-flush toilets that are used in NSCT systems. In this case, the scenario employing septic-tank improvement in conjunction with sewerage development may be effective for a rapid decrease of COD in locations where septic tanks are widely used under poor maintenance conditions and nitrogen pollution is not serious compared to COD. It was calculated that the two scenarios above would respectively require cost increases of 16 and 22% over the sewerage development scenario.
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Tetiana, S. Tkachova. "Using a scenario approach to form a strategy for the development of machine-building enterprises." Economics: time realities 2, no. 48 (2020): 108–16. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4650296.
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Isolation and generalization of theoretical and methodological principles of enterprise strategy formation makes it possible to combine different conceptual approaches in the process of strategizing, as well as to choose the most appropriate principles for a particular situation. Eight stages of the scenario planning process are considered. Thus, each scenario can be implemented on the basis of multivariate solutions. The paper proposes a distributed dynamic model of problem situations in the enterprise without management influences, which is based on the synthesis of a simulation model of situation forecasting, built using the system of system dynamics J. Forrester, which has a hierarchical model structure, the implementation of which allows to obtain scenarios situations with a constant mode of management, to determine the image of the future situation and assess the situation at the enterprise.
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Tkachova, Tetiana. "USING OF THE SCENARIO APPROACH FOR FORM A STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MACHINE-BUILDING ENTERPRISES." Economics: time realities 2, no. 48 (2020): 108–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.15276/etr.02.2020.14.
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Isolation and generalization of theoretical and methodological principles of enterprise strategy formation makes it possible to combine different conceptual approaches in the process of strategizing, as well as to choose the most appropriate principles for a particular situation. Eight stages of the scenario planning process are considered. Thus, each scenario can be implemented on the basis of multivariate solutions. The paper proposes a distributed dynamic model of problem situations in the enterprise without management influences, which is based on the synthesis of a simulation model of situation forecasting, built using the system of system dynamics J. Forrester, which has a hierarchical model structure, the implementation of which allows to obtain scenarios situations with a constant mode of management, to determine the image of the future situation and assess the situation at the enterprise.
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Wang, Yu Ning, Hui Ming Zeng, Bing Qing Tang, and Bin Xiang Hu. "System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy." Advanced Materials Research 765-767 (September 2013): 278–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.765-767.278.
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Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.
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Wang, Yu Ning, Hui Ming Zeng, Bin Qing Tang, and Bin Xiang Hu. "System Dynamics Modeling for China's EV Development Strategy." Applied Mechanics and Materials 378 (August 2013): 483–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.378.483.
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Due to mandatory emission reduction and rising oil prices electric vehicles are about to be introduced in mass markets. This paper presents a system dynamics model of Chinas development strategy of electric vehicle industry. The focus of the paper is to study the influence of four major dynamic factors government policies, technology innovation, market demand and competitive ability. It gives an overall scenario of the development and highlights the major problems faced by Chinese electric vehicles industry, and how SD modeling can be used for the analysis of the industry developing policy. The model has been used to simulate the influence of these dynamic factors for 20 years, and a serious of policy tests and some useful policy suggestions were put forward. The result suggested that government support will still play a key role in a long-term.
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Jakimavičius, Marius, and Marija Burinskienė. "ASSESSMENT OF VILNIUS CITY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BASED ON TRANSPORT SYSTEM MODELLING AND MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 15, no. 4 (2009): 361–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.361-368.
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The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi‐criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi‐criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio‐economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by‐passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects. Santrauka Straipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijai. Miesto plėtros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji plėtra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji plėtra ir ekstensyvioji plėtra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir atliekant Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijų modeliavimą 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma plėtros scenarijų prioritetinė eilė, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant plėtros scenarijų, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis kelionės laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatvių tinklo duomenimis, transportinių rajonų dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sėkmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektų įtaką miesto susisiekimo sistemai.
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Witt, Tobias, Katharina Stahlecker, and Jutta Geldermann. "Morphological analysis of energy scenarios." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no. 4 (2018): 525–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-09-2017-0003.
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PurposeEnergy scenarios have long been successfully used to inform decision-making in energy systems planning, with a wide range of different methodological approaches for developing and evaluating them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing approaches and classify them with a morphological box.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds upon the methodological literature on developing and evaluating energy scenarios and presents a morphological box, which comprises parameters describing the scenario properties, (energy system) model properties, scientific practice and institutional settings of energy scenarios. The newly developed morphological box is applied to four selected energy scenarios of the German energy transition.FindingsThe morphological box is a suitable tool to classify current energy scenarios. The exemplary application also points toward four challenges in the current practice of energy scenario development and evaluation: increasing complexity of decision problems, transparency of the scenario development process, transparency of the decision support process and communication of uncertainty.Originality/valueThe morphological box of energy scenarios helps researchers soundly document and present their methodological approaches for energy scenario development and evaluation. It also facilitates the work of analysts who want to classify, interpret and compare energy scenarios from a methodological perspective. Finally, it supports the identification of gaps between current practice and the methodological literature on energy scenarios, leading to the development of new types of energy scenarios.
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Pašičko, Robert, Zoran Stanić, and Nenad Debrecin. "Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System." Journal of Electrical Engineering 61, no. 3 (2010): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10187-010-0022-7.
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Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power SystemThe main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
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Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Scenario approach to develop machine-building enterprise’s strategy." Thesis, Аналітичний центр "Нова Економіка", 2017. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/32893.
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During the last years maintenance of competitive activity changed and the that subject of management, that creates competitive potential, finds out potential of any value, generates unique ideas and knowledge that can interest the future consumers of his products. For reduction or prevention of risk of acceptance of administrative decisions the enterprises must find out those that influence on its activity, find out the possible level of risk and methods of his calculation .
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Wang, Wenqing, and wenqing wang@rmit edu au. "Modelling and Simulating Mobile Commerce Diffusion in China Using System Dynamics." RMIT University. Business Information Technology, 2007. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20080604.115004.
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Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.
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Itani, Nadine M. "Policy development framework for aviation strategic planning in developing countries." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9217.
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There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and
development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes
as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within
other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is
found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy
planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund
donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in
aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to
specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the
country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other
national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study
provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic
planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking
practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation
strategy.
The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air
transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not
sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and
understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air
transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the
level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy
elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation
to the national economic development and connectivity levels.
The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and
continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex
situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions
based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency
elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of
its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by
providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
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Combier, Robert. "Risk-informed scenario-based technology and manufacturing evaluation of aircraft systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49046.
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In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detailed simulations and explorations of candidate future states of these systems help reduce a complex design problem into a comprehensible, manageable form where decision factors are prioritized. While there are still fundamental criticisms about using modeling and simulation, the emerging challenge becomes ``How do you best configure uncertainty analyses and the information they produce to address real world problems?”
One such analysis approach was developed in this thesis by structuring the input, models, and output to answer questions about the risk and economic impact of technology decisions in future aircraft programs. Unlike other methods, this method placed emphasis on the uncertainty in the cumulative cashflow space as the integrator of economic viability. From this perspective, it then focused on exploration of the design and technology space to tailor the business case and its associated risk in the cash flow dimension. The methodology is called CASSANDRA and is intended to be executed by a program manager of a manufacturer working of the development of future concepts. The program manager has the ability to control design elements as well as the new technology allocation on that aircraft. She is also responsible for the elicitation of the uncertainty in those dimensions within control as well as the external scenarios (that are out of program control). The methodology was applied on a future single-aisle 150 passenger aircraft design.
The overall methodology is compared to existing approaches and is shown to identify more economically robust design decisions under a set of at-risk program scenarios. Additionally, a set of metrics in the uncertain cumulative cashflow space were developed to assist the methodology user in the identification, evaluation, and selection of design and technology. These metrics are compared to alternate approaches and are shown to better identify risk efficient design and technology selections.
At the modeling level, an approach is given to estimate the production quantity based on an enhanced Overall Evaluation Criterion method that captures the competitive advantage of the aircraft design. This model was needed as the assumption of production quantity is highly influential to the business case risk. Finally, the research explored the capacity to generate risk mitigation strategies in to two analysis configurations: when available data and simulation capacity are abundant, and when they are sparse or incomplete. The first configuration leverages structured filtration of Monte Carlo simulation results. The allocation of design and technology risk is then identified on the Pareto Frontier. The second configuration identifies the direction of robust risk mitigation based on the available data and limited simulation ability. It leverages a linearized approximation of the cashflow metrics and identifies the direction of allocation using the Jacobian matrix and its inversion.
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Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Strategies for sustainable development of machine-building enterprise." Thesis, Mieszko I School of Education and Administration, 2018. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/36610.
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Enterprises must identify those that affect its activities, identify the acceptable level of risk and how to calculate it, in order to reduce or prevent the risk of making managerial decisions. Since in the process of functioning of the enterprise there is a lagging of the values of the actually obtained indicators from the desired, there is not only the need to respond to changes in the environment of the enterprise, as well as their prediction. Consequently, the management of machine-building enterprises should develop a forecast of possible changes (positive and negative deviations) in the dynamics of the main indicators of its activities
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Puthenveetil, John P. "An Assessment of the Role of Scenario-Based Anticipatory Organizational Learning in Strategy Development---An Organization Development Perspective." Thesis, Benedictine University, 2017. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10587691.
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<p> The only two certainties in life are death and more uncertainty—with change the only constant. Rapidly changing environments require speedier response. We do not know what the future holds. Crafting strategy when the future is unknown and unknowable is challenging. The increasing uncertainty and turbulence has seen the gradual replacement of forecasting with scenario planning. Unfortunately, we are still trapped in the Taylorist paradigm that there is always one optimal strategy for any company to pursue. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 provided a dramatic demonstration of the risk inherent in any strategic plan that relies on a unidimensional view of the future.</p><p> Using this crisis as a Petri dish, this research examined how well scenario planning worked. As the objective of scenario-based strategy development is to improve organizational agility (defined as the speed with which firms sensed and responded to an organizational crisis), the research measured how agile these firms were, measured against an established timeline and a sense and respond model, the Puthenveetil Model.</p><p> This study used a qualitative longitudinal case study method using purposive sampling of 14 firms that used scenario planning in strategy development and examined their strategies during the crisis <i>ex post facto</i>, only to find that most firms did not anticipate the crisis. Of those that did, only two—General Electric and Herman Miller, firms steeped in the learning/organization development culture—responded during the pre-crisis period. A surprising finding was that in six of the 14 firms, headcounts increased during this period. As to why so many firms failed to anticipate this crisis, there were three possible explanations: (a) the Cassandra Syndrome, (b) blind confidence in probability, and (c) reactive approach to change. The Puthenveetil Model could be used by individuals and organizations to prepare for the challenges of the VUCA world by hedging against the inevitable surprises that lurk in the background. Uncertainty is not an ally of confidence. Confidence is needed for commitment. Scenario-based thinking should help decision makers think clearly, feel confident, and act decisively.</p>
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Basirat, Farzad. "CO2 leakage in a Geological Carbon Sequestration system: Scenario development and analysis." Thesis, KTH, Vattendragsteknik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96084.
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The aim of this project was to study the leakage of CO2 in a Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) system. To define the GCS system, a tool that is known as an FEP database was used. FEPs are the features, processes and events that develop scenarios for the goal of the study. Combinations of these FEPs can produce thousands of scenarios. However, among all of these scenarios, some are more important than others for leakage. The FEPs that were used as scenario developers were the formation of the liquid flow, the salinity of the formation liquid, diffusion as a process for gas bubble transport and the depth of the reservoir layer. In this study, the leakage path is considered as the presence of a fracture in sealed caprock. The fractures can be modeled using various approaches. Here, I represented the influence of fracture modeling by applying the Equivalent Continuum Method (ECM) and the Dual-Porosity and Multi-continuum methods to leakage. This study suggests that considering groundwater in the aquifer would reduce the leakage of CO2 and that a shallower formation leads to higher leakage. This study can be expanded to future studies by including external FEPs that are related to the FEPs that were used in this study.
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Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "System-issues of development of hotel business." Thesis, Уманський національний університет садівництва, 2018. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/38798.
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The development of a hotel business development strategy should include the following methodological approaches to the sequence of execution of works: the definition of goals and objectives for gaining strategic positions in the market, achieving the necessary technical level and product quality, increasing the efficiency of service delivery; determining the real possibilities of the hotel company for the implementation of the stated goals and objectives; justification of the development strategy, that is, the development of long-term and current measures of economic and financial development of the hotel company in order to provide the above-mentioned tasks; estimation of probable results; the development and adoption of corrective measures to achieve the planned results activity of hotel enterprise.So in deciding to optimize the development of the hotel business, it is necessary to determine the ways of its implementation, that is, to choose the appropriate strategy of activity.
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Bush, Brian O. "Development of a fuzzy system design strategy using evolutionary computation." Ohio : Ohio University, 1996. http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd/view.cgi?ohiou1178656308.
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Gilmore, John Sebastian. "Development of a satellite communications software system and scheduling strategy." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/4152.
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Thesis (MScEng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Stellenbosch University and the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven has a joint undertaking
to develop a satellite communications payload. The goals of the project are:
to undertake research and expand knowledge in the area of dynamically configurable
antenna beam forming, to prove the viability of this research for space purposes and
to demonstrate the feasibility of the development in a practical application.
The practical application is low Earth orbit satellite communication system for
applications in remote monitoring. Sensor data will be uploaded to the satellite,
stored and forwarded to a central processing ground station as the satellite passes
over these ground stations. The system will utilise many low-cost ground sensor
stations to collect data and distribute it to high-end ground stations for processing.
Applications of remote monitoring systems are maritime- and climate change
monitoring- and tracking. Climate change monitoring allows inter alia, for the monitoring
of the effects and causes of global warming.
The Katholieke Universiteit Leuven is developing a steerable antenna to be
mounted on the satellite. Stellenbosch University is developing the communications
payload to steer and use the antenna. The development of the communications
protocol stack is part of the project. The focus of this work is to implement the
application layer protocol, which handles all file level communications and also implements
the communications strategy.
The application layer protocol is called the Satellite Communications Software
System (SCSS). It handles all high level requests from ground stations, including
requests to store data, download data, download log files and upload configuration
information. The design is based on a client-server model, with a Station Server
and Station Handler. The Station Server schedules ground stations for communication
and creates a Station Handler for each ground station to handle all ground
station requests. During the design, all file formats were defined for efficient ground
station-satellite communications and system administration. All valid ground station
requests and handler responses were also defined.
It was also found that the system may be made more efficient by scheduling
ground stations for communications, rather than polling each ground station until
one responds. To be able to schedule ground station communications, the times
when ground stations will come into view of the satellite have to be predicted. This
is done by calculating the positions of the Satellite and ground stations as functions
of time. A simple orbit propagator was developed to predict the satellite distance
and to ease testing and integration with the communications system. The times
when a ground station will be within range of the satellite were then predicted and a
scheduling algorithm developed to minimise the number of ground stations not able to communicate.
All systems were implemented and tested. The SCSS executing on the Satellite
was developed and tested on the satellite on-board computer. Embedded implementations
possess strict resource limitations, which were taken into account during the
development process. The SCSS is a multi-threaded system that makes use of thread
cancellation to improve responsiveness.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Universiteit van Stellenbosch ontwerp tans ’n satelliet kommunikasieloonvrag in
samewerking met die Katolieke Universiteit van Leuven. Die doel van die projek is
om navorsing te doen oor die lewensvatbaarheid van dinamies verstelbare antenna
bundelvorming vir ruimte toepassings, asook om die haalbaarheid van hierdie navorsing
in die praktyk te demonstreer.
Die praktiese toepassing is ’n satellietkommunikasiestelsel vir afstandsmonitering,
wat in ’n Lae-Aarde wentelbaan verkeer. Soos die satelliet in sy wentelbaan beweeg,
sal sensor data na die satelliet toe gestuur, gestoor en weer aangestuur word. Die
stelsel gebruik goedkoop sensorgrondstasies om data te versamel en aan te stuur na
kragtiger grondstasies vir verwerking.
Afstandsmoniteringstelsels kan gebruik word om klimaatsverandering, sowel as
die posisie van skepe en voertuie, te monitor. Deur oa. klimaatsveranderinge te
dokumenteer, kan gevolge en oorsake van globale verhitting gemonitor word.
Die Katholieke Universiteit van Leuven is verantwoordelik vir die ontwerp en
vervaardiging van die satelliet antenna, terwyl die Universiteit van Stellenbosch verantwoordelik
is vir die ontwerp en bou van die kommunikasie loonvrag. ’n Gedeelte
van hierdie ontwikkeling sluit die ontwerp en implementasie van al die protokolle van
die kommunikasieprotokolstapel in. Dit fokus op die toepassingsvlak protokol van die
protokolstapel, wat alle leêrvlak kommunikasie hanteer en die kommunikasiestrategie
implementeer.
Die toepassingsvlaksagteware word die Satellietkommunikasie sagtewarestelsel
(SKSS) genoem. Die SKSS is daarvoor verantwoordelik om alle navrae vanaf grondstasies
te hanteer. Hierdie navrae sluit die oplaai en stoor van data, die aflaai van
data, die aflaai van logs en die oplaai van konfigurasie inligting in. Die ontwerp
is op die standaard kliënt-bediener model gebasseer, met ’n stasiebediener en ’n
stasiehanteerder. Die stasiebediener skeduleer die tye wanneer grondstasies toegelaat
sal word om te kommunikeer en skep stasiehanteerders om alle navrae vanaf die
stasies te hanteer. Gedurende die ontwerp is alle leêrformate gedefinieer om doeltreffende
adminstrasie van die stelsel, asook kommunikasie tussen grondstasies en die
satelliet te ondersteun. Alle geldige boodskappe tussen die satelliet en grondstasies
is ook gedefnieer.
Daar is gevind dat die doeltreffendheid van die stelsel verhoog kan word deur die
grondstasies wat wil kommunikeer te skeduleer, eerder as om alle stasies te pols totdat
een reageer. Om so ’n skedule op te stel, moet die tye wanneer grondstasies binne
bereik van die satelliet gaan wees voorspel word. Hierdie voorspelling is gedoen deur
die posisies van die satelliet en die grondstasies as funksies van tyd te voorspel. ’n
Eenvoudige satelliet posisievoorspeller is ontwikkel om toetsing en integrasie met die SKSS te vergemaklik. ’n Skeduleringsalgoritme is toe ontwikkel om die hoeveelheid
grondstasies wat nie toegelaat word om te kommunikeer nie, te minimeer.
Alle stelsels is geimplementeer en getoets. Die SKSS, wat op die satelliet loop,
is ontwikkel en getoets op die satelliet se aanboord rekenaar. Die feit dat ingebedde
stelsels oor baie min hulpbronne beskik, is in aanmerking geneem gedurende die
ontwikkeling en implementasie van die SKSS. Angesien die SKSS ’n multidraadverwerkingsstelsel
is, word daar van draadkansellasie gebruik gemaak om die stelsel se
reaksietyd te verbeter.
Books on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
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Barykin, Alex, Valentin Ikryannikov, and Yuriy Budkin. National system of standardization of the Russian Federation. Principles, goals, objectives, forecast of development. INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1058023.
Full textAbstract:
The monograph presents the research questions of efficiency of functioning of national standardization system of the Russian Federation, which was conducted by the authors in the framework of the analytical work on the order of Minpromtorg of Russia in 2018 (the state contract from April 17, 2018 No. 18401.16Д0190019.10.002) taking into account the actual directions of development of national standardization system of the Russian Federation and additional generalizations. The assessment of the current scenario of the development of the national standardization system of the Russian Federation was carried out using comparable indicators of the national standardization systems of France, Germany, great Britain and the USA. The findings and proposals were based on the results of a survey of civil servants at the Federal and regional levels on approaches to strategic dimensions of standardization. The methodology of forecasting the development of the national standardization system of the Russian Federation includes a scenario approach and a method of constructing dispersion diagrams (bubble diagrams) and sufficiently illustrates the current state of Affairs in the field of standardization at the national level. The developed tools will require additional configuration when changing the current development scenario from "inertial" to "progressive". A number of author's proposals to change the current scenario of development of the national standardization system of the Russian Federation are presented.
 It is of interest to a wide range of readers and specialists in the field of public administration, standardization and can be used in the preparation of curricula and manuals for undergraduate, graduate and further education.
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Roat, Harish Chandra. Tribal settlement system and development strategy. Himanshu Publications, 1987.
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1950-, Carroll John M., ed. Scenario-based design: Envisioning work and technology in system development. Wiley, 1995.
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Nebraska Health & Human Services System. Environmental Health Services Section. Nebraska's public water supply system capacity development strategy report to the Governor. Nebraska Health and Human Services System, 2002.
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Academy, Saturday, and Northwest Power Planning Council (U.S.), eds. The river stressed out: Summer 1994 : a role-playing scenario based on multiple uses of the Columbia River system. s.n, 1994.
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Kozhevina, Ol'ga, and Natal'ya Salienko. Strategic change management. INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1045608.
Full textAbstract:
The textbook is developed on the basis of competence-based and interdisciplinary approaches, contains theoretical foundations for the formation, change, development and improvement of organization management systems in a dynamic environment, as well as methodological aspects of the development and practical implementation of strategic changes. The publication examines the features of strategic changes, the technology of change management, reflects the models and principles of organizational changes, defines the prerequisites for the development of scenarios for the development of the organization, factors, conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of the change management strategy in the organization.
 The publication fully complies with the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation.
 It is intended for students studying in the areas of training 38.03.02 "Management", 38.03.03 "Personnel Management", 38.03.04 "State and municipal management". It will also be useful for students of MBA programs, advanced training courses and professional training of managerial personnel, senior students of economic specialties of universities, graduate students, teachers, practitioners and anyone interested in the problems of effective development of organizations based on the approach of organizational change.
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Australia, Western, Western Australia. Avon River System Management Committee., and Western Australia Waterways Commission, eds. Avon River System management Strategy: Prepared for the Government of Western Australia by the Avon River System Management Committee and the Waterways Commission. Avon River System Management Committee, 1993.
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Burns, Danny. Systemic action research: A strategy for whole system change. Policy Press, 2007.
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Ruitenbeek, H. Jack. The invisible wand: Adaptive co-management as an emergent strategy in complex bio-economic systems. Center for International Forestry Research, 2001.
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Goehring, Dwight J. An automated system for the analysis of Combat Training Center information: Strategy and development. U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1995.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
1
Anders Eriksson, E. "Scenario-Based Methodologies for Strategy Development and Management of Change." In Systems Approaches and Their Application. Springer Netherlands, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-2370-7_7.
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Zhang, Zhiqiang, Shaohua Liu, Zhaoyuan Shi, and Juan Shi. "Research and Practice on Verification Test of Intended Functional Safety Awareness System Based on HWA System." In Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering. Springer Nature Singapore, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-1876-4_92.
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AbstractWith the development of driving automation technology, more and more vehicles are equipped with intelligent driving functions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued in 2021 “Intelligent connected Vehicle production Enterprises and Product Access Management Guide (Trial)” (draft for comment) proposed that “intelligent connected vehicle products should meet the process assurance requirements of functional safety, intended functional safety and cybersecurity.” As the “eyes” of the HWA functional system, the perception system, due to its complexity, may still have safety problems caused by functional limitations such as sensors or algorithms in the absence of faults. Therefore, the intended functional safety analysis and verification methods for the perception system are particularly important to ensure that the system does not have unreasonable safety risks. This paper describes the analysis method of the intended functional safety function deficiency, and puts forward the test verification strategy and test verification method of known hazard scenarios. Taking the HWA system as an example, this paper analyzes the hazard scenario of the HWA perception system based on camera and millimeter wave radar, conducts testing and verification evaluation for typical hazard scenarios, identifies the insufficient function of the HWA perception system, and puts forward functional modification suggestions to ensure that the perception system does not have unreasonable risks.
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Herbst, Andrea, Anna-Lena Klingler, Stephanie Heitel, et al. "Future Energy Demand Developments and Demand Side Flexibility in a Decarbonized Centralized Energy System." In The Future European Energy System. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_6.
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AbstractEuropean final energy consumption mainly stems from five sectors: transport, households, industry, residential, and agriculture using fossil fuels as dominant energy carriers. In order to achieve the climate targets, emissions in the demand sectors must be drastically reduced. Due to different characteristics and challenges each sector needs its own strategy how to achieve such decarbonization until 2050. In the following chapter, the impacts of an ambitious mitigation scenario on future energy demand and CO2 emissions for transport, industry, residential, and tertiary are analyzed discussing sector specific decarbonization strategies and mitigation options. Implications of such strategies for demand-side flexibility and its future need are analyzed.
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Hosseini, SeyedVahid, Ali Izadi, Afsaneh Sadat Boloorchi, Seyed Hossein Madani, Yong Chen, and Mahmoud Chizari. "Optimal Design of Environmental-Friendly Hybrid Power Generation System." In Springer Proceedings in Energy. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63916-7_22.
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AbstractCombination of both renewable and fuel-based generation systems is an advantageous approach to develop off-grid distributed power plants. This approach requires evaluation of the techno-economic potential of each source in a selected site as well as optimization of load sharing strategy between them. Development of a remote hybrid power plant in an off-grid area is the interest of this study. Defining all available combinations, characteristics of performance, cost and availability of them evaluated. Applying constraints, multi-objective target domain based on load following and Levelized Cost of Electricity is established in which by utilizing Pareto front approach, optimized scenarios is achieved.
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Wang, Huanyu, Chao Zhang, and Yong Chen. "System Engineering-Based Flight Simulation Device Design Technology and Application Research." In Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering. Springer Nature Singapore, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-7887-4_21.
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Abstract The development of modern aviation industry urgently needs a large number of high-level flight simulation device (FSD) for multiple applications such as technologies research, aircraft test and pilot training. Traditionally, these FSD are manufactured by different TDM to meet individual requirement, which may encounter difficulty in correctness, integrity or fidelity. How to develop the FSD and its simulation packages for research, engineering and training scenarios with a more coordinated and efficient methodology is the key to the development of high-level FSD for one particular aircraft project. This paper proposes that FSD shall be classified, according to development process and control requirements into three categories, which are Flight Simulation Training Device (FSTD), Flight Simulation Engineering Device (FSED) and Flight Simulation Research Device (FSRD). In particular, the simulation package provide the basis for the evolution of the multiple applications of the FSD. In this paper, the key design of FSD and simulation packages is given by proposing a technical strategy, which is based on system engineering (SE), with the development of FSED simulation packages as the central objective, and evolving and applying them to more mission such as research and training by validation and verification (V&V) of the requirement. This technical strategy shows major value (1) in optimizing correctness, integrity, and fidelity through process assurance, (2) in shortening the development cycle and reducing the cost by reducing duplication of efforts, (3) in reducing the technical risk of the simulation package, which is accompanied by aircraft and system design and development, and (4) in standardizing and eliminating of inconsistencies of the simulation modeling data, which is oriented from FSED with rigor configuration management. This research intends to promote the development of the domestic aircraft and the growth of the FSD-connected technology.
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Mastrolonardo, Luciana. "The Urban Riverfront Greenway: A Linear Attractor for Sustainable Urban Development." In The Urban Book Series. Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29515-7_50.
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AbstractThe strategy for sustainable mobility of December 2020 by the European Commission defines the alignment of the transport sector with the European Green Deal, for a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions related to transport by 2050. This involves linear infrastructure of sustainable mobility in our cities. The research has a focus on strategies to increase sustainable travel, with a view to improving the quality of public space and reducing the weight of heavy transport. A coordinated planning directs actions toward mitigation tools and sharing of public spaces through necessarily systemic interventions, which identify a common scenario, involving increased use of city greenways connected with urban node. Working on the level of cycling in Pescara case study (IT) means to act to a systemic approach involving different kind of action on infrastructure and on active participation of inhabitants. Among all a focus was developed on the urban greenway on the riverfront, crossing stretches of great environmental and landscape quality with its seven kilometers, which potentially could connect peripherals part of the cities, currently in a state of semi-abandonment. The Biciplan guidelines, meeting the objective by a project involving youth activism, could help achieve sustainability objectives and improve environmental performance, starting from its integrated enhancement, developing the axis in an urban sense, reconnecting the city and improving the peripheral mobility of the city. The consequence of coordinated planning and directing actions toward mitigation tools are followed in the reduction of emissions at the local level, contributing to proximity of travel.
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Fiesoli, Irene. "Digital Transformation Projects for the Future Digicircular Society." In The Urban Book Series. Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29515-7_37.
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AbstractThe rapid technological development leads us to identify innovation with technology itself. This becomes the core piece of the innovation process in all sectors. In reality, digital transformation has the power to change the meaning of things (Epifani in Digital sustainability: why sustainability cannot disregard digital transformation. Digital Transformation Institute, Rome, 2020) and therefore needs to cultivate a strategic vision of systems and scenarios that can be implemented only through creative design. Designers, thanks to their ability to see, show, predict (Zurlo in Le strategie del design. Disegnare il valore oltre il prodotto. Libraccio editore, Milan, 2021), and design the future, have the role of meeting the challenges posed by digital evolution. This dichotomy between digital and sustainability is analyzed in the article thanks to the workshop “Space Transformation/Industrial Living Environment,” a pilot project for the valorization of productivity in the Valdelsa Senese area that involves, in interdisciplinary groups, students from the various design fields of the School of Architecture of the University of Florence. Another example of planning is the project SMAG—SMArt Garden (Tuscany Region Call RSI—POR FESR 2014–2020), which develops a product-service system equipped with an advanced technological set-up able to control vital parameters of public or private green spaces, using the Internet of things. These examples underline how the physical and digital worlds are interfacing more and more and getting closer. In this scenario, the role of the project is even more important because it allows to manage and direct the innovation and change processes in the direction of a “digicircular” transformation (Epifani in Digital sustainability: why sustainability cannot disregard digital transformation. Digital Transformation Institute, Rome, 2020).
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Khoo, Suet Leng, and Nicole Shu Fun Chang. "The Malaysian Scenario: Setting the Context." In Creative City as an Urban Development Strategy. Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1291-6_4.
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Tkach, Mykola, Ganna Medynska, Yurii Hrytsiuk, Polina Tolok, Vadym Telehin, and Mykola Shylan. "Recommendations on the implementation of portfolio management in the defense management system of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the defense forces of Ukraine." In PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN THE MILITARY FIELD: PERSONAL EXPERIENCE OF UKRAINE. TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC, 2024. https://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-8360-08-5.ch2.
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Portfolio management is an integral component of project activity and includes a set of interrelated organizational processes and methods that allow to manage projects, project programs and other activities (hereinafter referred to as portfolio components) aimed at realizing the goals of defense programs in the most effective way. Portfolio management provides a consistent approach to the management of portfolio components, which allows: aligning costs with the goals and performance indicators of defense programs; optimize the use of resources; maximize benefits from the resources involved; define and agree on the expectations of interested parties; ensure transparency of implementation of portfolio components and their status. Portfolio management is a continuous decision-making process whereby the list of portfolio components is subject to periodic review to align with defense program objectives. Portfolio components can be changed, accelerated, delayed or discontinued. The need to implement best practices in portfolio management in military management bodies is due to the need to reform the defense management system and bring it closer to Euro-Atlantic principles and standards. For this purpose, taking into account the specifics of the defense sector, military strategy and public administration, the manuscript substantiates the application of a comprehensive portfolio management approach in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the defense forces, which combines strategic, systemic, project and process-oriented approaches , as well as risk management and focus on results) and portfolio management implementation methods and tools (capacity analysis, project priority matrix, value-complexity matrix, scenario analysis, key performance indicators, benefit tracking, portfolio dashboard, balanced scorecard, "bubble chart", portfolio archive). In order to develop effective recommendations for the implementation of portfolio management in military administration, the factors that can complicate this process are outlined (systematic underfunding of the defense sector, shortage of qualified personnel, lack of modern information systems, corruption, post-Soviet corporate culture). In addition, the PPBE model is proposed (development and use in the daily activities of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine of project management architecture – PPBE; architecture of defense programs based on existing organizational structures and functional groups of capabilities; architecture of project management, programs through portfolios by their types and functions; architecture planning and development of projects through their creation, development and implementation, utilization; architecture of capabilities of types, branches of troops, commands). Recommendations were given on the implementation of portfolio management taking into account the proposed PPBE model (development of the regulatory framework, organizational and administrative documents on portfolio management; creation and reorganization of project portfolio management functions; improvement of staff qualifications; organization of providing the portfolio of projects, programs and individual projects with the necessary resources; development of leadership qualities of individual project, program and project portfolio managers; creation and modernization of infrastructure for project portfolio management).
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Lukash, Olha, and Vasyl Namoniuk. "Post-war Development Energy Scenarios for Ukraine." In Springer Climate. Springer International Publishing, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-50762-5_6.
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AbstractThe systemic shock provoked by the Russian invasion created a radical discontinuity in the national development policies of Ukraine. This research examines the state of energy policy and the consequences of the ongoing war on plausible decarbonisation scenarios. Ukraine’s commitment to decarbonization was firmly established before 2022, and the National Energy Strategy 2050 already aimed at a substantial 65% reduction in emissions of the economy in comparison to 1990. The war however, precipitated the need to adjust these targets and policy instrument to the current realities. For that, we conducted quantitative research to identify the most GHG intensive regions and sectors and related these to their Gross Regional Product and population. We found out that Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Ivano-Frankivsk turn out be the most critical regions that require special consideration—so for the later region, we also identify particular decarbonization pathways. Our research shows that the Ukrainian war not only unveiled the inherent vulnerabilities of heavily centralised, carbon-dependent systems, but also can lead to the acceleration of non-linear structural low-carbon energy transformations more resilient to global change and systemic interdependences.
Conference papers on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
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Bansal, Mohit, Javed Dhillon, and Rahul Virmani. "Development of Operation Strategy for a Solar PV-CAES Based System in Market Scenario." In 2016 Second International Conference on Computational Intelligence & Communication Technology (CICT). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cict.2016.77.
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Rudder, Sarah, and Daniel Herber. "Importance of Ontologies for Systems Engineering (SE) and Human Factors Engineering (HFE) Integration." In 6th International Conference on Human Systems Engineering and Design Future Trends and Applications (IHSED 2024). AHFE International, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1005544.
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Due to the volatility of the sales markets, a pure sales forecast and technology calendar are not sufficient for the development of a product strategy. In a product strategy, far-reaching decisions are made as to which product ideas should be pursued further, considering limited development budgets and available expertise within a company. To this end, the prospects of success of alternative product ideas must be carefully weighed up against each other. The consistency-based scenario technique provides an excellent basis for this. The consistency-based scenario technique is characterised by anticipating contradiction-free - so called consistent - developments of key factors in the entrepreneurial business environment. As nobody knows which developments and disruptive events will actually occur in future, probabilities are not taken into account in the consistency-based scenario technique. Instead, the aim is to anticipate all conceivable future developments so that opportunities can be seized early and challenges are overcome more easily.The success of the consistency-based scenario technique is based not only on expertise in the factors influencing future developments, their interactions and consistencies, but also on the appropriate aggregation of the large number of possible developments - so-called raw scenarios - into holistic alternative visions of the future. Typically, three alternative future scenarios are developed, among those preferably one positive and one negative. This development of alternative visions of the future can be characterized by quality key figures. In this contribution, a new set of key figures is proposed that supports the selection of appropriate future scenarios as a starting point for the selection of promising product ideas. This reduces the scope for interpretation used in generating future scenarios and increases the quality of the resulting scenarios. The basis for discussion is thus objectified. The set of key figures comprises Four quality metrics. Metric one (M1) measures the normal distribution of the raw scenarios calculated by the algorithms. Metric two (M2) requires the fulfilment of a high Consistency sum in order to generate contradiction-free scenarios. Metric three (M3), Heterogeneity, ensures sufficient differentiability of the scenarios. Metric four (M4) measures the calculated Reproducibility of the final result achieved iteratively. The tool should be able to reproduce and create the scenarios at any time using the specific database. The quality metrics are used iteratively to achieve an overarching optimum of focusing, the normal distribution, heterogeneity, consistency and reproducibility. The scenario technique is used in an internationally operating company in the mechanical and plant engineering sector as a supporting method in the area of business analytics for strategy alignment. The proposed results are used to develop highly qualitative scenarios in eight workshops and three iterations with managing directors and to incorporate these into the future direction of the strategy. The metrics presented are used to arrive at reliable future scenarios for the product strategy.
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Kuzmak, Oleh, and Olena Kuzmak. "SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY OF BUSINESS TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: CASE OF UKRAINE." In Innovative Solutions for Managing the Economy in an International Crisis Scenario. Oikos Institute – Research Center, Bijeljina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.61432/cpne0101126k.
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Social responsibility is one of the priority tasks of corporate management and one of the urgent problems of the modern economy, in the context of determining the role of social responsibility in the sustainable development of a business organization and the contribution of social investments to sustainable development. The purpose of the article is to assess the current state of development of the institute of social responsibility, the implementation of the policy of social responsibility and transparency of economic activity by Ukrainian businesses, the study of factors that become obstacles to the introduction of the institute of social responsibility in Ukraine. This publication highlights the aspects of transformational changes, the globalization of economic relations, the role of sustainable organizational development, and their impact on the formation of socially responsible business standards. An attempt was made to give a systematic presentation of the main advantages of transparency in reporting on economic activity. The results of modern rating systems of enterprises in the context of social responsibility in Ukraine were analyzed. Problems hindering the development of social responsibility of business in Ukraine are identified and outlined. The scientific research concludes that the active implementation of the policy of social responsibility in the formation of the Ukrainian business strategy should become one of the tools for ensuring the prerequisites for competitive advantages, strengthening the image of companies by strengthening the loyalty of employees, the trust of regular and potential customers, partners, local communities and the opportunity to attract “green†financing.
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Qiang, Guo, Xie Jiaqiang, and Chen Yong. "Scenarios Analysis and Development Strategy for Aircraft Integrated Health Management (AIHM)." In 2019 Prognostics and System Health Management Conference (PHM-Qingdao). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/phm-qingdao46334.2019.8943050.
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Santos, Rafael V. M., and Giovanni V. Comarela. "Development of an Equity Strategy for Recommendation Systems." In Workshop sobre as Implicações da Computação na Sociedade. Sociedade Brasileira de Computação, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.5753/wics.2024.1975.
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As a highly data-driven application, recommender systems can be affected by data distortions, culminating in unfair results for different groups of data, which can be a reason to affect system performance. Therefore, it is important to identify and resolve issues of unfairness in referral scenarios. We therefore developed an equity algorithm aimed at reducing group injustice in recommender systems. The algorithm was tested on two existing datasets (MovieLens and Songs) with two user clustering strategies. We were able to reduce group unfairness in both data sets by considering the two clustering strategies.
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Alani, Ali, Graham D. Goodfellow, and Dennis Keen. "Risk Based Strategy for the Development of an Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS)." In 2016 11th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2016-64083.
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This paper presents an overview of the various components of an emergency pipeline repair system which should be in place in order to act effectively and efficiently during an emergency pipeline repair scenario. The condition of pipelines during operation is typically monitored by means of external and internal inspections. These inspections allow for planned intervention when a pipeline is found to be deteriorating. A failure to inspect adequately for time dependent threats, or randomly occurring events such as third party interaction, could result in a pipeline failure, leading to a requirement to rapidly return to operation and thus the need for an emergency repair. An Emergency Pipeline Repair System (EPRS) is therefore an essential part of a pipeline integrity management system. The primary purpose of the EPRS is to ensure that pipeline operators have the necessary level of readiness to allow an emergency repair to be carried out, thus minimising the economic consequences of having a pipeline out of service, whilst optimising the cost of purchasing and maintaining equipment and spares. In general, pipeline operators will have some emergency repair procedures to cater for unplanned or unexpected incidents. However, to complete an emergency repair efficiently and effectively, the availability of adequate spare materials and timely access to the damage location is required. For a large pipeline network, satisfying these requirements can be challenging. This paper discusses some basic elements of an EPRS and describes a case study of the development of a risk based EPRS strategy for an offshore pipeline operator. This approach involves the identification of credible hazards that can lead to damage requiring an emergency repair, and identification of repair options. The relative importance of the individual pipelines, in terms of their availability requirement, and the expected time required to complete an emergency repair are then taken into account. This enables the pipelines to be ranked based on the consequence of failure. Pipelines with consequence rankings that are considered unacceptable are therefore highlighted, and EPRS readiness related to those pipelines can subsequently be optimised. Recommendations for the development of an EPRS for an onshore or offshore pipeline network are also made.
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Innocenti, Eleonora, Lorenzo Berzi, Aljon Kociu, and Massimo Delogu. "Modelling Charging Infrastructure in V2G Scenario." In CO2 Reduction for Transportation Systems Conference. SAE International, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2024-37-0003.
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<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Nowadays, electrification is largely acknowledged as a crucial strategy to mitigate climate change, especially for the transportation sector through the transition from conventional vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). As the demand for EVs continues to rise, the development of a robust and widespread charging infrastructure has become a top priority for governments and decision-makers. In this context, innovative approaches to energy management and sustainability, such as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), are gradually being employed, leading to new challenges, like grid service integration, charge scheduling and public acceptance. For instance, the planned use scenario, the user’s behavior, and the reachability of the geographical position influence the optimal energy management strategies both maintain user satisfaction and optimize grid impact. Firstly, this paper not only presents an extensive classification of charging infrastructure and possible planning activities related to different charging scenarios but also indicates the most feasible Point of Interest (POIs) for certain energy strategies and a user’s behavior associated with POIs. Secondly, the article proposes a systematic procedure to analyze the potential location using accessible data from OpenStreetMap (OSM), considering different POIs categories and the classifications proposed above. Therefore, this methodology can support future practitioners both in the definition of the suitability of a charging geographical position for specified energy management strategies (e.g., V2G) and the best path planning for a defined charging location. Lastly, the proposed model is applied to a real case study, functional to the XL-Connect Horizon Europe project. The results proposed utilized open-source geographical data and can be obtained for other worldwide case studies.</div></div>
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Colella, Whitney G., Stephen H. Schneider, Daniel M. Kammen, Aditya Jhunjhunwala, and Nigel Teo. "Part II of II: Deployment of MERESS Model—Designing, Controlling, and Installing Stationary Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Fuel Cell Systems (FCS) to Reduce Costs and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions." In ASME 2008 6th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fuelcell2008-65113.
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The Maximizing Emission Reductions and Economic Savings Simulator (MERESS) is an optimization tool that allows users to evaluate avant-garde strategies for installing and operating combined heat and power (CHP) fuel cell systems (FCSs) in buildings. This article discusses the deployment of MERESS to show illustrative results for a California campus town, and, based on these results, makes recommendations for further installations of FCSs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. MERESS is used to evaluate one of the most challenging FCS types to use for GHG reductions, the Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC) system. These PAFC FCSs are tested against a base case of a CHP combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). Model results show that three competing goals (GHG emission reductions, cost savings to building owners, and FCS manufacturer sales revenue) are best achieved with different strategies, but that all three goals can be met reasonably with a single approach. According to MERESS, relative to a base case of only a CHP CCGT providing heat and electricity with no FCSs, the town achieves the highest 1) GHG emission reductions, 2) cost savings to building owners, and 3) FCS manufacturer sales revenue each with three different operating strategies, under a scenario of full incentives and a $100/tonne carbon dioxide (CO2) tax (Scenario D). The town achieves its maximum CO2 emission reduction, 37% relative to the base case, with operating Strategy V: stand alone operation (SA), no load following (NLF), and a fixed heat-to-power ratio (FHP) [SA, NLF, FHP] (Scenario E). The town’s building owners gain the highest cost savings, 25%, with Strategy I: electrically and thermally networked (NW), electricity power load following (ELF), and a variable heat-to-power ratio (VHP) [NW, ELF, VHP] (Scenario D). FCS manufacturers generally have the highest sales revenue with Strategy III: NW, NLF, with a fixed heat-to-power ratio (FHP) [NW, NLF, FHP] (Scenarios B, C, and D). Strategies III and V are partly consistent with the way that FCS manufacturers design their systems today, primarily as NLF with a FHP. By contrast, Strategy I is avant-garde for the fuel cell industry, in particular, in its use of a VHP and thermal networking. Model results further demonstrate that FCS installations can be economical for building owners without any carbon tax or government incentives. Without any carbon tax or state and federal incentives (Scenario A), Strategy I is marginally economical, with 3% energy cost savings, but with a 29% reduction in CO2 emissions. Strategy I is the most economical strategy for building owners in all scenarios (Scenarios A, B, C, and D) and, at the same time, reasonably achieves other goals of large GHG emission reductions and high FCS manufacturer sales revenue. Although no particular building type stands out as consistently achieving the highest emission reductions and cost savings (Scenarios B-2 and E-2), certain building load curves are clear winners. For example, buildings with load curves similar to Stanford’s Mudd Chemistry building (a wet laboratory) achieve maximal cost savings (1.5% with full federal and state incentives but no carbon tax) and maximal CO2 emission reductions (32%) (Scenarios B-2 and E-2). Finally, based on these results, this work makes recommendations for reducing GHG further through FCS deployment. (Part I of II articles discusses the motivation and key assumptions behind the MERESS model development (Colella 2008).)
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Al Maazmi, J., M. Mabrook, M. Al Badi, et al. "Integrated Gas Asset Optimization System (IGAS) - Developing an Integrated Production Efficiency Optimization Tool Across Upstream and Downstream Process Lifecycles for a Gas Condensate Asset in Abu Dhabi." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/216912-ms.
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Abstract IGAS is a project that aims to develop a digital network optimization model capturing the complete gas life-cycle of Reservoir A from its Upstream through the Downstream process flow. This submission focuses on the modeling efforts and the preliminary implementation of the model in a field trial to generate optimized production scenarios aimed to maximize condensate production in a reservoir developed under gas recycle strategy to form the basis for the development of an AI optimization tool. IGAS model was built using commercially available solutions to integrate the upstream and downstream models. Model development was straight forward with commercial well performance and network modelling tools combined with process workflow simulators to develop upstream and downstream models, respectively. Those were assimilated in a single tool using an interconnection platform to facilitate integration of workflows. Post model integration, a field trial was conducted to validate the model’s accuracy in generating condensate maximization scenarios. IGAS field trial was conducted over a period of 10 weeks. A scenario was generated in accordance with the expected well availability for duration of the field trial. Post field trial, two primary observations were made: An Adherence Score metric was created, which calculates how well the IGAS scenario was followed considering each well’s CGR and suggested IGAS rate. A direct correlation was observed between Condensate production and Adherence Score objective function, indicating that the more IGAS scenario is adhered to, the more condensate is produced.Condensate history matching exercise was conducted for the trial period duration, which observed an average error of 1.72% (model vs actual production). This was followed with an optimized scenario generated for each day of the trial period (actual wet gas production for given day was set as constraint to ensure fair comparison) in order to quantify the potential condensate production. This exercise observed an average additional condensate production of 2.2%, which could have been produced if the IGAS scenario was adhered to. Unlocking such value would require the installation of well choke actuators to facilitate instantaneous changes to the chokes. IGAS serves a great example of the potential value that can be unlocked with modern day IAM (integrated asset model) solutions. More importantly, it sheds light to the importance of developing unmanned field operations (well choke actuators in specific), which maximizes the use of IAM solutions such as IGAS enabling instant implementation of suggested scenarios.
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Okechukwu, Sedoo, Adedoyin Orekoya, Precious Alamina, James Anyaehie, Adekoyejo Sonde, and Uchechukwu Ozoemene. "Uncertainty Management Using Multi-Scenario Modeling in a Partially Appraised Field." In SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207196-ms.
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Abstract Considering the imminent end of the ‘easy oil’ era, the increasing demand for energy and the global push towards the energy transition, oil and gas companies are more than ever interested in sustainable ways to develop marginal and complex hydrocarbon fields economically, through the application of technology and maximization of data analysis. In small partially appraised fields where the cost of drilling an appraisal well could derail the project economics, it becomes necessary to sweat the limited data available for reservoir modelling. The uncertainty analysis must be robust enough to ensure that the adopted field development strategy would yield a positive net present value despite the wide uncertainties associated with the field. The conventional workflow for subsurface uncertainty modelling involves defining the uncertainty ranges of static and dynamic reservoir parameters based on a single reservoir model concept. This paper focuses on a marginal field case study where the multi scenario modelling approach was adopted. This approach considered alternate reservoir geologic concepts based on different interpretations of the reservoir architecture, taking full cognizance of the available data, reservoir uncertainties and regional geology knowledge. Field Alpha is located onshore of Niger Delta in Nigeria. The geologic setting consists mainly of multi-storey, complex channel-belt systems, incising through Shoreface deposits. The reservoir of interest is an elongated structure with only two well penetrations located at the opposite distal part of the structure. The key reservoir uncertainties are reservoir structure, architecture, connectivity, and property distribution. Two possible distinct architecture were interpreted based on regional correlation and seismic. This paper focuses on how the interpretations and other information informed a robust development strategy that yielded significant (30 %) reduction in development cost and positive net present value.
Reports on the topic "System "scenario - development strategy""
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Fernández Gómez, Jorge, and Jaime Menéndez Sánchez. Development of the hydrogen system in the Basque Country in the medium term. Edited by Patricia Canto. Universidad de Deusto, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18543/ukhn2572.
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This report analyzes the possible evolution of the hydrogen transport infrastructure system in the Basque Country in the medium term. The objective of the work is threefold: (1) to characterize medium-term infrastructure development scenarios (over a 10-15 year horizon); (2) to identify key factors that influence the development of the Basque hydrogen system and analyze their potential impact on the determination of the medium-term scenario; (3) to draw conclusions of a strategic nature for the Basque Country. The hydrogen production-transport system scenarios analyzed range from a totally decentralized scenario (with production infrastructures on site, at consumption facilities or in industrial hubs) to a totally centralized system designed on the basis of the current gas network. The main conclusion of the report is that the optimal strategy in the short term from the point of view of the Basque Country involves supporting a rapid deployment of hydrogen in industrial hubs (Port of Bilbao area), while a wait-and-see position should be maintained to see how the sector develops in the coming years to advance in the configuration of infrastructures in the longer term.
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Kucherova, Hanna, Anastasiia Didenko, Olena Kravets, Yuliia Honcharenko, and Aleksandr Uchitel. Scenario forecasting information transparency of subjects' under uncertainty and development of the knowledge economy. [б. в.], 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4469.
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Topicality of modeling information transparency is determined by the influence it has on the effectiveness of management decisions made by an economic entity in the context of uncertainty and information asymmetry. It has been found that information transparency is a poorly structured category which acts as a qualitative characteristic of information and at certain levels forms an additional spectrum of properties of the information that has been adequately perceived or processed. As a result of structuring knowledge about the factor environment, a fuzzy cognitive model of information transparency was constructed in the form of a weighted digraph. Structural analysis and scenario forecasting of optimal alternatives of the fuzzy cognitive model made it possible to evaluate the classes of factors, identify their limited relations, establish the centrality of the roles of information transparency and information and communication security in the system built and evaluate their importance when modeling the situation self-development. Information visibility, reliability and availability have been found to have the strongest impact on the system. Taking into account different initial weights of the key factors — information transparency and information and communication security — the study substantiates the strategic ways for economic entities to achieve their goals in the context of uncertainty and information asymmetry, which allows us to use this approach as a tool for strategic management in the information environment.
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Kober, Tom, Evangelos Panos, Yi Wan, Russell McKenna, Alexander Fuchs, and Turhan Demiray. Long-term integration of large-scale gas storage in Switzerland. Paul Scherrer Institute, PSI, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55402/psi:63482.
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This study was mandated by Gaznat and is an associated case study to the SWEET project "Sustainable and Resilient Energy for Switzerland" (SURE). It analyses the role of large-scale gas storage in the Swiss energy system taking into consideration the Swiss energy strategy and climate goals as well as the security of supply objectives within a quantitative model-based scenario framework. Related to largescale gas storages, the study particularly focuses on potentially new gas storage options for Switzerland, such as Lined Rock Cavern – LRC storages and Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG storages. In order to quantify long-term developments of the energy system of Switzerland and the role of gas storages specifically, the well-established Swiss TIMES Energy systems Model has been employed and complemented with a dedicated dynamic gas flow model of the Swiss gas grid using the FlexECO modelling framework.
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Li, Baisong, and Bo Xu. PR-469-19604-Z01 Auto Diagnostic Method Development for Ultrasonic Flow Meter. Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0012204.
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The objectives of this research are to develop methods for performing ultrasonic flow meter (USM) diagnostic evaluation automatically and a software tool with all necessary attachments. USM-based diagnostics have been established and thirteen categories of knowledge rules of existing cases have been learned and integrated. A search engine for relevant standards, specifications, and other documents of the measurement system has been developed, which enables the free search of text content. Further, with the assistance of modern reasoning techniques, the authorized user only needs to configure an EXCEL file or scripts to activate the rules of the knowledge base by using Drools technology. Therefore, the integration of any potential knowledge rules is convenient and requires no professional skills or changing of the internal source code of the software. Secondly, a new flow meter diagnostic method is proposed based on multiple information methodologies and it is based on the real-time measurement data, operation data, and video data if applicable. The method is intended to identify abnormal states of the measurement system on a real-time basis with the assistance of the knowledge rules and to provide a strategy for mitigating the meter error of components within the measurement system. Thirdly, the applications of Gaussian quadrature diagnostics in daily acquisition nomination change situations and compressor-induced pulsating flow scenarios have been investigated and results are shown in the document. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the measurement uncertainty caused by compressor-induced pulsating flows is obvious, while the measurement uncertainty caused by daily acquisition nomination change is relatively smaller. The software is then developed based on the knowledge, the idea of multiple information methods, and applications of the Gaussian quadrature diagnostics method with all necessary attachments. The architecture, the algorithm, and a few examples are introduced.
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J. Beesley. AGING SYSTEM DESIGN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/841254.
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Gallardo Montoya, María Lourdes, Arturo Muente, and Eugenia Valdez. Building Scenarios for the Future of Digital Identification Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004729.
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Digital identification systems unlock tremendous benefits from digital government initiatives. However, governments across the globe, including in Latin America and the Caribbean, have been slow to implement them in the face of constantly changing technologies. This report describes the results of a novel process--the building of future scenarios--aimed at helping governments advance reform in the face of technological and other uncertainties. The Innovation in Citizen Services Division and Knowledge Innovation and Communication Sector of the Inter-American Development Bank proposed these future scenarios to improve strategic decision making and encourage an open discussion on the future of digital identification systems from a non-traditional point of view. The results of this and future scenario-building exercises should spark innovative ideas that allow governments, public and private sector organizations, civil society, and citizens at large to re-think their role in the digital identification ecosystem in the next 10 years.
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Yamaguchi, N. D., and K. Breazeale. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/181516.
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Reddick, G. W. Testing and development strategy for the tank waste remediation system. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/70784.
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Nagimov, R. Development of a Low-Pressure Helium Compression Control System Strategy. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1053634.
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Reddick, G. W. Testing and development strategy for the tank waste remediation system. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10116917.
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