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Books on the topic 'Systematic uncertainty'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 4 February 2022

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1

Cosma, Cristina. Development of a systematic approach for uncertainty assessment in scheduling multiple repetitive construction processes by using fuzzy set theory. 2003.

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2

Eisenberg, Melvin A. Behavioral Economics and Contract Law. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199731404.003.0011.

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Chapter 11 concerns behavioral economics. Classical contract law was implicitly based on a rational-actor or expected-utility model of psychology. Under this model, actors who make decisions in the face of uncertainty rationally maximize their expected utility, with all future benefits and costs properly discounted to present value. Rationality, in turn, requires that when consequences are uncertain their likelihood must be evaluated without violating the basic rules of probability theory. Within the last half century a great body of theoretical and empirical work in cognitive psychology, know

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3

Gartzke, Erik A., and Paul Poast. Empirically Assessing the Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.274.

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What explains war? The so-called bargaining approach has evolved quickly in the past two decades, opening up important new possibilities and raising fundamental challenges to previous conventional thinking about the origins of political violence. Bargaining is intended to explain the causes of conflict on many levels, from interpersonal to international. War is not the product of any of a number of variables creating opportunity or willingness, but instead is caused by whatever factors prevent competitors from negotiating the settlements that result from fighting. Conflict is thus a bargaining

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4

Washburn, David A., Michael J. Beran, and J. David Smith. Metamemory in Comparative Context. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.21.

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Demonstrations of animal memory were among the earliest experimental results obtained in psychology, but investigations of whether animals show metacognitive competencies are relatively new. Such investigations require innovative paradigms in which uncertainty can be created and empirically validated, methods by which nonverbal organisms can indicate their recognition of confidence or uncertainty, and systematic inquiry to determine whether such responses are externally, associatively generated or are subjective and metacognitive. This third point requires particular attention to balance compe

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5

Smithson, Michael. Human Understandings of Probability. Edited by Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199607617.013.29.

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In this chapter developments in theories and research on human understandings and judgements of probability are examined. The concept of probability as a degree of belief and the systematic study of human probability judgements have emerged only recently, but have stimulated numerous fruitful debates about the nature of rationality, belief formation, decision-making, and uncertainty itself. The chapter begins with a review of how the connection between probability and degrees of belief was developed and elaborated to form a prescriptive framework, followed by a brief summary of debates concern

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6

Rubin, Yoram. Applied Stochastic Hydrogeology. Oxford University Press, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195138047.001.0001.

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Stochastic Subsurface Hydrogeology is the study of subsurface, geological heterogeneity, and its effects on flow and transport process, using probabilistic and geostatistical concepts. This book presents a rational, systematic approach for analyzing and modeling subsurface heterogeneity, and for modeling flow and transport in the subsurface, and for prediction and decision-making under uncertainty. The book covers the fundamentals and practical aspects of geostatistics and stochastic hydrogeology, coupling theoretical and practical aspects, with examples, case studies and guidelines for applic

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7

Maestas, Cherie. Expert Surveys as a Measurement Tool. Edited by Lonna Rae Atkeson and R. Michael Alvarez. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190213299.013.13.

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Polling political elites, academics, or other types of knowledgeable experts has provided scholars with a trove of information about political institutions, processes, and local context. Expert surveys are an especially useful method for measuring concepts that would be difficult or impossible to measure through alternative strategies and permits scholars to create indicators that are comparable across diverse contextual settings. This chapter provides an overview of the key questions researchers face when using experts as a tool of measurement. It highlights considerations regarding survey de

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8

Summers, Jesse S., and Walter Sinnott-Armstrong. Clean Hands. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190058692.001.0001.

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Scrupulosity is a form of OCD that raises philosophical puzzles because of its superficial similarities to morally extreme, non-pathological motivation. Cases of Scrupulosity are first presented, then Scrupulosity is characterized as a form of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) because of its moral or religious obsessions and/or compulsions and its underlying anxiety. Scrupulosity is specifically characterized by perfectionism, chronic doubt and intolerance of uncertainty, and moral thought-action fusion. It is a mental illness and not simply religious devotion, moral virtue, or strength of c

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9

Yan, Veronica X., and Daphna Oyserman. The world as we see it. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198789710.003.0011.

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Cultural knowledge allows people to engage the world seemingly effortlessly—their implicit expectations for how everyday experiences will unfold seem to match their observations, triggering a sense that all is right with the world and oneself. However, culture-based expectations are sometimes violated; yielding an experience of cultural disfluency that triggers increased systematic reasoning, reduces experienced inherence, and increases uncertainty about the world and one’s present and future self. This chapter synthesizes these culture-based processes with identity-based motivation theory to

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10

Hankin, David, Michael S. Mohr, and Kenneth B. Newman. Sampling Theory. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198815792.001.0001.

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We present a rigorous but understandable introduction to the field of sampling theory for ecologists and natural resource scientists. Sampling theory concerns itself with development of procedures for random selection of a subset of units, a sample, from a larger finite population, and with how to best use sample data to make scientifically and statistically sound inferences about the population as a whole. The inferences fall into two broad categories: (a) estimation of simple descriptive population parameters, such as means, totals, or proportions, for variables of interest, and (b) estimati

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11

Harcourt, G. C., and Peter Kriesler, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Post-Keynesian Economics, Volume 2. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195390759.001.0001.

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This book analyzes Keynesian foundations of post-Keynesian economics, focusing on how uncertainty and liquidity revoke Say’s law. It explains the key features of Michał Kalecki’s analysis of a capitalist economy and examines his macroeconomics in the short-run. It also provides a brief overview of post-Keynesian contributions to the study of the economic problems of least developed countries, also known as development economics. In addition, the book tackles the financial markets, considers Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, and discusses Sidney Weintraub’s criticism of the neocl

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12

Bains, Sunny. Explaining the Future. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198822820.001.0001.

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Explaining the Future addresses the questions “will this new technology solve the problem that its inventors claim it will,” “will it succeed for any application at all,” “can we narrow down the options before we spend a lot of money on development,” and “how do we persuade colleagues, investors, clients, or readers of our technical reasoning?” Whether the person answering these questions is a researcher, a consultant, a venture capitalist, or a CTO, they will need to be able to answer them clearly and systematically. Most learn these skills only through years of experience. However, by making

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13

Böschen, Stefan, Armin Grunwald, Bettina-Johanna Krings, and Christine Rösch, eds. Technikfolgenabschätzung. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/9783748901990.

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The complexity of socio-technological challenges and the uncertainty of decisions are both increasing. Therefore, there is a need for knowledge-based and option-oriented assessment and advice. Technology assessment (TA) can offer alternative approaches to and perspectives on current decision-making processes. This handbook provides guidance in developing new answers to the problems under investigation. It pursues three objectives. Firstly, it reflects on TA by looking at developments in TA. Secondly, it serves as a compass for orientation by providing heuristics for the systematic contextualis

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14

Hatlebrekke, Kjetil Anders. The Problem of Secret Intelligence. Edinburgh University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9780748691838.001.0001.

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Why is intelligence so hard to define? Why is there no systematic or adequate theory of intelligence? This book argues that classic intelligence production has been premised on an ill-founded belief in an automatic inference between history and the future, and that the lack of a working theory has exacerbated this problem. The book uses classic cases of intelligence failure to demonstrate how this problem creates a restricted language in intelligence communities that undermines threat perception. From these cases it concludes that intelligence needs to be re-thought, and argues that good intel

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15

Busuioc, Aristita, and Alexandru Dumitrescu. Empirical-Statistical Downscaling: Nonlinear Statistical Downscaling. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.770.

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This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article.The concept of statistical downscaling or empirical-statistical downscaling became a distinct and important scientific approach in climate science in recent decades, when the climate change issue and assessment of climate change impact on various social and natural systems have become international challenges. Global climate models are the best tools for estimating future climate conditions. Even if improvements can be made in state-of-the art

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16

William A, Schabas. Part 2 Jurisdiction, Admissibility, and Applicable Law: Compétence, Recevabilité, Et Droit Applicable, Art.7 Crimes against humanity/Crimes contre l’humanité. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198739777.003.0009.

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This chapter comments on Article 7 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Article 7 defines crimes against humanity, one of four categories of offence within the subject-matter jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. The classic definitions of crimes against humanity, in such instruments as the Charter of the Nuremberg Tribunal, are vague and open-ended, leaving courts to interpret the scope of such expressions as ‘persecution’ and ‘inhumane acts’. Out of concern with the uncertain parameters of the crime, the drafters of the Rome Statute included extra language des

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17

Peled, Yael. Language Ethics and the Interdisciplinary Challenge. Edited by James W. Tollefson and Miguel Pérez-Milans. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190458898.013.5.

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This chapter offers a normative engagement with language policy and politics, particularly involving the moral evaluation of power structures associated with language, and their possible alternatives. Questions about language rights and linguistic equality, the compatibility between particular language regimes and democratic principles, and the global ethics of English as a lingua franca, as well as emerging debates in political philosophy on linguistic justice, involve language ethics, namely, inquiry on the moral problems, practices, and policies related to language. Language ethics must be

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18

Brunsson, Nils, and Mats Jutterström. Organizing and Reorganizing Markets and Formal Organizations: A Comparison. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198815761.003.0018.

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The study of market organization can be used for a comparison between organizing markets and organizing formal organizations. W use the empirical results for adding a systematic investigation of the similarities and differences between these activities. There are strong similarities in how organization takes place in practice—not least regarding the dynamics of organization, the ample supply of problems driving reorganization, and the unintended and uncertain effects of organization. We point to differences in such aspects as the number of organizers and their responsibility, who is organized—

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19

Smith, Philip. Narrating Global Warming. Edited by Jeffrey C. Alexander, Ronald N. Jacobs, and Philip Smith. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195377767.013.28.

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This article examines global warming using the narrative genre model of risk evaluation. The narrative genre model of risk evaluation offers a systematic and comparative way of looking at the form and structure of storytelling and its consequences for human action. It is based on a number of claims, for example: uncertain events and real world facts are “clues”; we can see things as low mimetic, romantic, tragic, or apocalyptic; binary oppositions play a role as building blocks for wider storytelling activity. The article first provides a background on the issues of global warming, climate cha

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20

Cai, Congyan. The Rise of China and International Law. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190073602.001.0001.

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The rise of China represents a far-reaching process of international relations in the twentieth century, which should bring about extensive but uncertain ramifications. How China interacts with international legal order—namely, how China takes advantage of international law to facilitate and justify its rise and whether and how international law is relied upon to engage a rising China—has been inviting growing debates among academics and policy circles. A couple of recently eye-catching events, for instance, China-Philippines South China Sea (SCS) arbitration and the China-U.S. trade war, have

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