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Taylor, Franci Lynne'. "American Indian women in higher education is Tinto's model applicable? /." Thesis, Montana State University, 2005. http://etd.lib.montana.edu/etd/2005/taylor/TaylorF0505.pdf.
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Guo, Longkai. "Numerical investigation of Taylor bubble and development of phase change model." Thesis, Lyon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020LYSEI095.
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Le mouvement d'une bulle d'azote de Taylor dans des solutions mixtes glycérol-eau s'élevant à travers différents types d'expansions et de contractions est étudié par une approche numérique. La procédure CFD est basée sur un solveur open-source Basilisk, qui adopte la méthode du volume de fluide (VOF) pour capturer l'interface gaz-liquide. Les résultats des expansions/contractions soudaines sont comparés aux résultats expérimentaux. Les résultats montrent que les simulations sont en bon accord avec les expériences. La vitesse de la bulle augmente dans les expansions soudaines et diminue dans les contractions soudaines. Le modèle de rupture des bulles est observé dans les expansions soudaines avec de grands taux d'expansion, et un modèle de blocage des bulles est observé dans les contractions soudaines avec de petits rapports de contraction. De plus, la contrainte de cisaillement de la paroi, l'épaisseur du film liquide et la pression dans les simulations sont étudiées pour comprendre l'hydrodynamique de la bulle de Taylor montant par expansions/contractions. Le processus transitoire de la bulle de Taylor passant par une expansion/contraction soudaine est ensuite analysé pour trois singularités différentes: graduelle, parabolique convexe et parabolique concave. Une caractéristique unique de la contraction concave parabolique est que la bulle de Taylor passe par la contraction même pour de petits rapports de contraction. De plus, un modèle de changement de phase est développé dans le solveur Basilisk. Afin d'utiliser la méthode VOF géométrique existante dans Basilisk, une méthode VOF géométrique générale en deux étapes est implémentée. Le flux de masse n'est pas calculé dans les cellules interfaciales mais transféré aux cellules voisines autour de l'interface. La condition aux limites de température saturée est imposée à l'interface par une méthode de cellule fantôme. Le modèle de changement de phase est validé par évaporation de gouttelettes avec un taux de transfert de masse constant, le problème de Stefan unidimensionnel, le problème d'aspiration de l'interface et un cas d'ébullition à film plan. Les résultats montrent un bon accord avec les solutions analytiques ou les corrélations<br>The motion of a nitrogen Taylor bubble in glycerol-water mixed solutions rising through different types of expansions and contractions is investigated by a numerical approach. The CFD procedure is based on an open-source solver Basilisk, which adopts the volume-of-fluid (VOF) method to capture the gas-liquid interface. The results of sudden expansions/contractions are compared with experimental results. The results show that the simulations are in good agreement with experiments. The bubble velocity increases in sudden expansions and decreases in sudden contractions. The bubble break-up pattern is observed in sudden expansions with large expansion ratios, and a bubble blocking pattern is found in sudden contractions with small contraction ratios. In addition, the wall shear stress, the liquid film thickness, and pressure in the simulations are studied to understand the hydrodynamics of the Taylor bubble rising through expansions/contractions. The transient process of the Taylor bubble passing through sudden expansion/contraction is further analyzed for three different singularities: gradual, parabolic convex and parabolic concave. A unique feature in parabolic concave contraction is that the Taylor bubble passes through the contraction even for small contraction ratios. Moreover, a phase change model is developed in the Basilisk solver. In order to use the existed geometric VOF method in Basilisk, a general two-step geometric VOF method is implemented. Mass flux is calculated not in the interfacial cells but transferred to the neighboring cells around the interface. The saturated temperature boundary condition is imposed at the interface by a ghost cell method. The phase change model is validated by droplet evaporation with a constant mass transfer rate, the one-dimensional Stefan problem, the sucking interface problem, and a planar film boiling case. The results show good agreement with analytical solutions or correlations
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Ortega, Thais Andrea. "Grandes conjuntos de dados, modelo de fatores e a condução da política monetária no Brasil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2005. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-19112005-155423/.
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Atualmente há uma quantidade considerável de informação sobre o comportamento da economia à disposição da autoridade monetária, cuja decisão é provavelmente baseada nesse grande conjunto de dados. Entretanto, grande parte das análises empíricas de política monetária é baseada em modelos de pequena escala, e o problema de variáveis omitidas pode ser relevante. Uma literatura mais recente mostrou que grandes conjuntos de séries macroeconômicas podem ser modelados usando fatores dinâmicos, que são considerados um resumo da informação contida nos dados. Neste trabalho combinamos os fatores extraídos de 178 séries de tempo com os modelos tradicionais de pequena escala para analisar a política monetária no Brasil. Os fatores estimados são usados como instrumentos em regras de Taylor forward looking e como regressores adicionais em VAR´s. A informação extraída de grandes conjuntos de dados mostrou-se bem útil na análise empírica da política monetária.<br>Nowadays there is a considerable amount of information on the behavior of the economy available and central bankers can be expected to base their decisions on this very large information set. Nevertheless, most of the empirical analysis of monetary policy has been based on small scale models, and omitted information can be a relevant problem. Recent time-series techniques have shown that large datasets can be modeled using dynamic factors, which are considered a summary of the information in the data. In this work we combine the factors extracted from 178 time series with more traditional small scale models to analyze monetary policy in Brazil. The estimated factors are used as instruments in forward looking Taylor rules and as additional regressors in VAR´s. The information extracted from large datasets turns out to be quite useful for the empirical analysis of monetary policy.
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Bechyňák, Petr. "Modely s racionálním očekáváním." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2007. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-1680.
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Práce popisuje vývoj konceptu mekonomického očekávání od extrapolativního, přes adaptivní až po racionální, včetně modelů, v nichž byla tato očekávání použita. V druhé části je odvozen a popsán model, využívající právě racionální očekávání. Tento agregovaný makroekonomický model je pak aplikován na prostředí ČR. Je zde testován i samotný předpoklad racionálního očekávání, což je myšlenka novější, než samotný model.
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Suh, Jeong Eui. "Two essays on monetary policy under the Taylor rule." Texas A&M University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2748.
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In this dissertation, two questions concerning monetary policy under the Taylor rule have been addressed. The first question is on, under the Taylor rule, whether a central bank should be responsible for both bank supervision and monetary policy or whether the two tasks should be exercised by separate institutions. This is the main focus of Chapter I. The second question is on whether the Taylor rule plays an important role in explaining modern business cycles in the United States. The second question has been covered by Chapter II.
The implications of the first chapter can be summarized as follows: (i) it is inevitable for the central bank to have a systematic error in conducting monetary policy when the central bank does not have a bank supervisory role; (ii) without a bank supervisory role, the effectiveness of monetary policy cannot be guaranteed; (iii) because of the existence of conflict of interests, giving a bank supervisory role to the central bank does not guarantee the effectiveness of monetary policy, either; (iv) the way of setting up another government agency, bank regulator, and making the central bank and the regulator cooperate each other does not guarantee the effectiveness of monetary policy because, in this way, the systematic error in conducting monetary policy cannot be eliminated; (v) in the view of social welfare, not in the view of the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is better for the central bank to keep the whole responsibility or at least a partial responsibility on bank supervision.
In the second chapter, we examined the effect of a technology shock and a money shock in the context of an RBC model incorporating the Taylor rule as the Fed??s monetary policy. One thing significantly different from other researches on this topic is the way the Taylor rule is introduced in the model. In this chapter, the Taylor rule is introduced by considering the relationship among the Fisher equation, Euler equation and the Taylor rule explicitly in the dynamic system of the relevant RBC model. With this approach, it has been shown that, even in a flexible-price environment, the two major failures in RBC models with money can be resolved. Under the Taylor rule, the correlation between output and inflation appears to be positive and the response of our model economy to a shock is persistent. Furthermore, the possibility of an existing liquidity effect is found. These results imply that the Taylor rule does play a key role in explaining business cycles in the United States.
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Alqatari, Samar(Samar Ali A. ). "Reduced-dimension model for the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in a Hele-Shaw cell." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122316.
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Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2019<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 93-94).<br>In this thesis we present a reduced-dimension model for the density-driven hydrodynamic Rayleigh-Taylor instability. We motivate the project with experimental findings of a little-understood stabilizing effect of geometry and deviations of measured instability wavelength from theoretical predictions. We present novel methods of data analysis for the experimental data. We then present a reduced-dimension model for the governing equations of the system, Stoke's equations and Fick's law, using polynomial trial functions. We discuss the results and conduct a linear stability analysis of the reduced system. We compare the model to a finite element simulation of the full governing equations using COMSOL, and propose an optimization framework for the basis functions of the reduced model. The reduced model helps in developing physical intuition for the behavior of the instability in this confined geometry, and understanding the effects of certain parameters that are difficult to study experimentally or by simulating the full equations.<br>by Samar Alqatari.<br>S.M.<br>S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program
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Kyle, I. Francis. "God's co-worker nineteenth-century "uncommon Christian" James Brainerd Taylor as a model for twenty-first-century evangelism /." Portland, OR : Western Seminary, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2986/tren.002-0843.
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Taylor, Tish Frances. "A concessionaire model for food and beverage operations in South African National Parks / Tish Frances Taylor." Thesis, North-West University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/9452.
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In recent years, protected areas have come under pressure due to the budget cuts of government. As a result, national parks have had to devise strategies by means of which they are able to generate additional revenue, in order to remain competitive. Such a strategy is the introduction of public-private partnerships, which allows the private sector to operate certain lodging facilities, restaurants and shops within parks. SANParks introduced their commercialization strategy in 2000 and overall it has been a success. However, despite earning much needed revenue; there are many complaints from tourists regarding the food and beverage concessions.
Research regarding travel food consumption is in its infancy and is lacking in social science research. The importance of travel dining cannot be understated as it constitutes approximately 25% of tourist expenditure and as such contributes to the economic receipts of a destination. The importance of understanding the wants and needs of tourists with reference to food and beverage will enable destinations to realise the full economic potential of the tourism experience. It has been postulated that food consumption no longer forms part of the ‘supporting’ experience but is in fact a ‘peak’ tourist experience and as such can impair the total tourist experience if tourists are not satisfied with food and beverage consumption at a destination. SANParks does not offer a wide variety of food and beverage facilities and it is of utmost importance that the facilities that are available, cater to the requirements of tourists.
The purpose of this study was to construct a model for concessionaire food and beverage operations at SANParks. This was done by targeting tourists who visit SANParks and inquiring as to their preferences with regard to restaurants and shop facilities. The questionnaire for the study was posted on SANParks’ website for a
period of three weeks and consisted of four sections, namely a demographic section, a section related to food service brands, a section regarding restaurants and the last section regarding shop facilities. The data was analysed to provide information needed to construct a model for concessionaire food and beverage operations in SANParks. Data provided a demographic profile of tourists to SANParks, factors analysis provided restaurant and take-away factors, ANOVA and t-tests allowed comparisons of factors with demographics and lastly structural equation modelling which provided goodness of fit indices for the proposed model.<br>Thesis (PhD (Tourism Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013
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Khajotia, Burzin. "Cased based reasoning Taylor series model to predict corrosion rate in oil and gas wells and pipelines /." Ohio : Ohio University, 2007. http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd/view.cgi?ohiou1173828758.
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Khajotia, Burzin K. "CASE BASED REASONING – TAYLOR SERIES MODEL TO PREDICT CORROSION RATE IN OIL AND GAS WELLS AND PIPELINES." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1173828758.
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Zhao, Mingjun. "Essays on model uncertainty in macroeconomics." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1153244452.
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Taylor, Estelle. "'n Model van die faktore wat die sukses van onderrigleer van tegnologie-gebaseerde onderwerpe beïnvloed / deur Estelle Taylor." Thesis, North-West University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/2004.
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Neugebauer, Felix Sebastian. "Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9098.
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Previous issue date: 2011-12-20<br>The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.
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Scheiman, Kevin S. "A Parallel Spectral Method Approach to Model Plasma Instabilities." Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1527424992108785.
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Kuske, Tehani Janelle. "Fluxes of Energy and Water Vapour from Grazed Pasture on a Mineral Soil in the Waikato." The University of Waikato, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2772.
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The eddy covariance (EC) technique was used to measure half hourly fluxes of energy and evaporation from 15 December 2007 to 30 November 2008 at the Scott Research Farm, located 7 km east of Hamilton. Many other supporting measurements of climate and soil variables were also made. The research addressed three objectives: 1. To examine the accuracy of the eddy covariance measurement technique. 2. Understand the surface partitioning of energy and water vapour on a diurnal to annual timescale. 3. Compare measurements of evaporation to methods of estimation. Average energy balance closure at Scott Farm was deficient by 24%, comparable to published studies of up to 30%. Three lysimeter studies were carried out to help verify eddy covariance data. These resulted in the conclusions that; 1) lysimeter pots needed to be deeper to allow for vegetation rooting depths to be encompassed adequately; 2) forcing energy balance closure was not supported by two of the studies (summer and winter); 3) latent heat flux (λE) gap filling of night time EC data during winter over estimated values by about 10 W m-2; and 4) the spring lysimeter study verified eddy covariance measurements including the closure forcing method. Some uncertainty still exists as to the accuracy of both lysimeter and EC methods of evaporation measurement because both methods still have potential biases, however for the purpose of this study, it would appear data are sufficiently accurate to have confidence in results. Energy and water vapour fluxes varied on both a diurnal and seasonal timescale. Diurnally, fluxes were small or negative at night and were highest during the day, usually at solar noon. Seasonally, spring and summer had the highest energy and evaporation fluxes and winter rates were small but tended to exceed available energy supply. Evaporation was constrained by soil moisture availability during summer and by energy availability during winter. Estimated annual evaporation at Scott Farm was 755 mm, 72% of precipitation. Two evaporation models were compared to eddy covariance evaporation (EEC) measurements; the FAO56 Penman-Monteith model (Eo) and the Priestley-Taylor model (EPT). Both models over estimated evaporation during dry conditions and slightly under estimated during winter. The α coefficient that is applied to EPT was not constant and a seasonally adjusted value would be most appropriate. A crop coefficient of 1.13 is needed for Eo measurements during moist conditions. Eo began over estimating evaporation when soil moisture contents dropped below ~44%. A water stress adjustment was applied to both models which improved evaporation estimates, however early onset of drying was not able to be adjusted for. The adjusted Eo model is the most accurate overall, when compared to EEC.
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Birchwood, Anthony. "Implementation of taylor type rules in nascent money and capital markets under managed exchange rates." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6447.
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We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.
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Mello, Eduardo Morato. "In search of exchange rate predictability: a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13308.
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Previous issue date: 2015-01-30<br>Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o 'symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant'. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões 'racionais', ou 'consistentes'. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são 'inconsistentes'. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.<br>This study investigates whether a Taylor rule-based model provides short-term, one-month-ahead, out-of-sample exchange-rate predictability. We review important research that concludes that macroeconomic models are able to forecast exchange rates over short horizons. We also present studies that are skeptical about the forecast predictability of exchange rates with fundamental models. In order to provide our own evidence and contribution to the discussion, we implement the model that presents the strongest results in Molodtsova and Papell’s (2009) influential paper, the 'symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant.' We use a sample of 14 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar to make out-of-sample monthly forecasts from January 2000 to March 2014. As with the work of Galimberti and Moura (2012), we focus on free-floating exchange rate and inflation-targeting economies, but we use a sample of both developed and developing countries. In line with Rogoff and Stavrakeva (2008), we find that the conclusion about a model’s out-of-sample exchange-rate forecast capability largely depends on the test statistics used: it is necessary to use stringent and robust test statistics to properly evaluate the model. After concluding that it is not possible to claim that the forecasts of the implemented model are more accurate than those of a random walk, we inquire as to whether the fundamental model is at least capable of providing 'rational,' or 'consistent,' predictions. To test this, we adopt the theoretical and procedural framework laid out by Cheung and Chinn (1998). We find that the implemented Taylor rule model’s forecasts do not meet the 'consistent' criteria. Finally, we implement Granger causality tests to verify whether lagged predicted returns are able to partially explain, or anticipate, the actual returns. Once again, the performance of the structural model disappoints, and we are unable to confirm that the lagged forecasted returns antedate the actual returns.
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Deng, Dingfeng. "A NUMERICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF TAYLOR FLOW INSTABILITIES IN NARROW GAPS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO TURBULENT FLOW IN BEARINGS." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron1185559974.
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Bai, Yang. "Study of viscoelastic instabily in Taylor-Couette system as an analog of the magnetorotational instability." Thesis, Le Havre, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LEHA0015/document.
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Cette thèse est consacrée à la vérification de l'analogie entre l'instabilité viscoélastique (VEI) et l'instabilité magnéto-rotationnel (MRI) dans un écoulement képlérien, afin de mieux comprendre le transport du moment dans les disques d'accrétion. Le discriminant de Rayleigh élasto-rotationnel est établi pour clarifier le rôle de l'élasticité dans le VEI. L'analyse de stabilité linéaire (LSA) avec le modèle d’Oldroyd-B est effectuée pour prédire les paramètres critiques des modes viscoélastiques. Il fait apparaître également l'influence de l'élasticité, la viscosité polymérique et d'autres paramètres de contrôle pour le VEI. Des expériences bien contrôlées avec des solutions aqueuses de polyoxyéthylène (POE) et de polyéthylène glycol (PEG) sont effectuées. Nous avons observé le mode stationnaire axisymétrique supercritique avec des solutions de faible élasticité et modes désordonnés sous-critiques avec des solutions de grande élasticité. Les formes et les valeurs critiques de ces modes sont en bon accord avec les prédictions théoriques de LSA. Selon l'analogie, le mode axisymétrique stationnaire est probablement l'analogue de MRI standard, tandis que le mode désordonné est probable que l'analogue de MRI hélicoïdale. La thèse contient aussi des résultats théoriques expérimentaux sur quatre autres régimes de rotation et un cas de limite d'élasticité infinie<br>This thesis is devoted to the verification of the analogy between the viscoelastic instability (VEI) and the magnetorotational instability (MRI) in a Keplerian flow, in order to get better understanding of the momentum transportation in accretion disks.The elasto-rotational Rayleigh discriminant is deduced to clarify the role of the elasticity in the VEI. The linear stability analysis (LSA) with Oldroyd-B model is performed to predict critical parameters of viscoelastic modes, and it reveals the influence of the elasticity, polymer viscosity on the VEI. Experiments with well controlled aqueous solutions of polyoxyethylene (POE) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) are conducted. We have observed supercritical stationary axisymmetric mode with solutions of small elasticity and subcritical disordered modes with solutions of large elasticity. Both the flow patterns and the critical values of these modes are in good agreement with the LSA predictions. According to the analogy, the stationary axisymmetric mode is likely the analog of the standard MRI while the disordered mode is likely the analog of the helical MRI. The thesis contains also theoretical and experimental results with four other rotation regimes and the limit case of infinite elasticity
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Taylor, Matthew David Verfasser], and Ewald [Akademischer Betreuer] [Schnug. "The fate and impact of fertiliser derived contaminants in New Zealand soils – development of a risk assessment model / Matthew David Taylor ; Betreuer: Ewald Schnug." Braunschweig : Technische Universität Braunschweig, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1175818046/34.
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Nhapulo, Gerson Leonardo. "Assessing nonlinear dyanamics of central bank reaction function : the case of Mozambique." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/10197.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>Esta dissertação lança alguma luz sobre os elementos que regem a tomada de decisões de política monetária durante o período 2000Q1-2015Q1 em Moçambique, ou seja, se a autoridade monetária do país, o Banco de Moçambique (BM), poderia ter-se comportado de forma diferente ao longo do tempo condicionado a pressões inflacionárias e ao desvio do produto em relação à meta, mudando entre períodos em que a inflação era a principal preocupação da política ou não. Existem várias abordagens para avaliar a dinâmica não-linear da função de reação do banco central. Em primeiro lugar, nós investigamos se as respostas das taxas de juro mudam com o sinal de desvios de inflação e do produto. Em segundo lugar, avaliamos a capacidade de resposta da taxa de juro de curto prazo para a magnitude dos choques de preços e do desvio do produto em relação à meta. Finalmente, usamos um modelo de mudança Markov regime de política monetária tendo como modelo base uma variante da regra de Taylor. A conclusão geral é que somente mudanças na inflação provocam reação do BM. O único elemento do modelo Markov é a uma fraca mudança na estabilidade de preços entre 2000Q1-2006Q4 e 2007Q1-2015Q1<br>This dissertation sheds some light into the elements governing monetary policy-making during 2000Q1-2015Q1 sample period in Mozambique, i.e., whether the monetary authority of this country, Banco de Moçambique (BM), might have behaved differently over time conditional to price pressures and outputs swings, switching between periods when inflation was the primary concern of policy or other way round. There are several approaches to assess nonlinear dynamics of central bank reaction function. First, we investigate whether the interest rate responses change with the sign of inflation and output deviations. Second, we evaluate the responsiveness of the short-term interest rate to the size of price and output shocks. Finally, we use a Markov switching model to estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the BM. The general finding is that only changes in inflation brings about reaction of the BM. The only element of Markov switching model is captured by a weak change in price stability from 2000Q1-2006Q4 sample sub-period to 2007Q1-2015Q1 sample sub-period.
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Ahmed, Najeer. "Addressing the Post-Keynesian Critique: Exchange Rate Determination with an Extended Mundell-Fleming Model." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1335.
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The assertion that financial flows are the primary drivers of exchange rates may be considered as financial markets become increasingly large and sophisticated. However, the Post-Keynesian critique leaves little room for the real economy to impact exchange rates. This paper aims to extend the Mundell-Fleming model to address the Post-Keynesian critique of mainstream models, by incorporating wealth effects, expectations, and Taylor-rule interest targeting. Discussion of significant financial events affecting the USDJPY exchange rate finds that wealth effects are significant considerations, and that the real economy cannot be discounted completely. Empirical results find that the real interest rate is a significant factor in exchange rate determination, tying into the discussion over the relationship between savings and consumption.
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Čížek, Ondřej. "Makroekonometrický model měnové politiky." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-165290.
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First of all, general principals of contemporary macroeconometric models are described in this dissertation together with a brief sketch of alternative approaches. Consequently, the macroeconomic model of a monetary policy is formulated in order to describe fundamental relationships between real and nominal economy. The model originated from a linear one by making some of the parameters endogenous. Despite this nonlinearity, I expressed my model in a state space form with time-varying coefficients, which can be solved by a standard Kalman filter. Using outcomes of this algorithm, likelihood function was then calculated and maximized in order to obtain estimates of the parameters. The theory of identifiability of a parametric structure is also described. Finally, the presented theory is applied on the formulated model of the euro area. In this model, the European Central Bank was assumed to behave according to the Taylor rule. The econometric estimation, however, showed that this common assumption in macroeconomic modeling is not adequate in this case. The results from econometric estimation and analysis of identifiability also indicated that the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has only a very limited effect on real economic activity of the European Union. Both results are influential, as monetary policy in the last two decades has been modeled as interest rate policy with the Taylor rule in most macroeconometric models.
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Dror, Marika. "Forecasting of exchange rates." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-202335.
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The thesis investigates different exchange rate models and their forecasting performance. The work takes previous literature overview and summarize their findings. Despite the significant amount of papers which were done on the topic of exchange rate forecast, basically none of them cannot find an appropriate model which would outperform a forecast of a simple random walk in every horizon or for any currency pair. However, there are some positive findings in specific cases (e.g. for specific pair or for specific time horizon). The study provides up-to-date analysis of four exchange rates (USD/CZK, USD/ILS, USD/GBP and USD/EUR) for the period of time from January 2000 to August 2013 and analyse forecasting performance of seven exchange rate models (uncovered interest rate parity model, purchasing power parity model, monetary model, monetary model with error correction, Taylor rule model, hidden Markov model and ESTAR model). Although, the results are in advantage of Taylor rule model, especially for the exchange rate of USD/CZK, I cannot prove that the forecasting performance is significantly better than the random walk model. Except of the overall analysis, the work suppose instabilities in the time. Stock and Watson (2003) found that the forecast predictability is not stable over time. As a consequence, the econometric model can give us better forecast than random walk process at some period of time, however at other period, the forecasting ability can be worse than random walk. Based on Fluctuation test of Giacomini and Rossi (2010a) every model is analysed how the out-of-sample forecast ability changes over time.
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Mwangota, Lutufyo. "Cubature on Wiener Space for the Heath--Jarrow--Morton framework." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-42804.
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This thesis established the cubature method developed by Gyurkó & Lyons (2010) and Lyons & Victor (2004) for the Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) model. The HJM model was first proposed by Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) to model the evolution of interest rates through the dynamics of the forward rate curve. These dynamics are described by an infinite-dimensional stochastic equation with the whole forward rate curve as a state variable. To construct the cubature method, we first discretize the infinite dimensional HJM equation and thereafter apply stochastic Taylor expansion to obtain cubature formulae. We further used their results to construct cubature formulae to degree 3, 5, 7 and 9 in 1-dimensional space. We give, a considerable step by step calculation regarding construction of cubature formulae on Wiener space.
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Smith, Jarrod L. "Full-Field Measurement of the Taylor-Quinney Coefficient in Tension Tests of Ti-6Al-4V, Aluminum 2024-T351, and Inconel 718 at Various Strain Rates." The Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1546452653747728.
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Nanovsky, Simeon Boyanov. "Three Essays in International Macroeconomics." UKnowledge, 2015. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/22.
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This dissertation spans topics related to global trade, oil prices, optimum currency areas, the eurozone, monetary independence, capital controls and the international monetary policy trilemma. It consists of four chapters and three essays. Chapter one provides a brief summary of all three essays. Chapter two investigates the impact of oil prices on global trade. It is concluded that when oil prices increase, countries start trading relatively more with their neighbors. As an application this chapter provides a new estimate of the eurozone effect on trade. Chapter three continues to study the eurozone and asks whether it is an optimum currency area using the member countries’ desired monetary policies. It is concluded that Greece, Spain, and Ireland have desired policies that are the least compatible with the common euro policy and are therefore the least likely to have formed an optimum currency area with the euro. Chapter four provides a new methodology in testing the international trilemma hypothesis. It is concluded that the trilemma holds in the context of the Asian countries.
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Heinrichs, Katrin [Verfasser]. "Positive Trend Inflation in the New Keynesian Model : an analysis considering different forms of state-dependent price-setting frequency and different versions of the Taylor rule / Katrin Heinrichs." Hagen : Fernuniversität Hagen, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1063672031/34.
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MacKenzie, Tony. "Create accurate numerical models of complex spatio-temporal dynamical systems with holistic discretisation." University of Southern Queensland, Faculty of Sciences, 2005. http://eprints.usq.edu.au/archive/00001466/.
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This dissertation focuses on the further development of creating accurate numerical models of complex dynamical systems using the holistic discretisation technique [Roberts, Appl. Num. Model., 37:371-396, 2001]. I extend the application from second to fourth order systems and from only one spatial dimension in all previous work to two dimensions (2D). We see that the holistic technique provides useful and accurate numerical discretisations on coarse grids. We explore techniques to model the evolution of spatial patterns governed by pdes such as the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and the real-valued Ginzburg-Landau equation. We aim towards the simulation of fluid flow and convection in three spatial dimensions. I show that significant steps have been taken in this dissertation towards achieving this aim. Holistic discretisation is based upon centre manifold theory [Carr, Applications of centre manifold theory, 1981] so we are assured that the numerical discretisation accurately models the dynamical system and may be constructed systematically. To apply centre manifold theory the domain is divided into elements and using a homotopy in the coupling parameter, subgrid scale fields are constructed consisting of actual solutions of the governing partial differential equation(pde). These subgrid scale fields interact through the introduction of artificial internal boundary conditions. View the centre manifold (macroscale) as the union of all states of the collection of subgrid fields (microscale) over the physical domain. Here we explore how to extend holistic discretisation to the fourth order Kuramoto-Sivashinsky pde. I show that the holistic models give impressive accuracy for reproducing the steady states and time dependent phenomena of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation on coarse grids. The holistic method based on local dynamics compares favourably to the global methods of approximate inertial manifolds. The excellent performance of the holistic models shown here is strong evidence in support of the holistic discretisation technique. For shear dispersion in a 2D channel a one-dimensional numerical approximation is generated directly from the two-dimensional advection-diffusion dynamics. We find that a low order holistic model contains the shear dispersion term of the Taylor model [Taylor, IMA J. Appl. Math., 225:473-477, 1954]. This new approach does not require the assumption of large x scales, formerly absolutely crucial in deriving the Taylor model. I develop holistic discretisation for two spatial dimensions by applying the technique to the real-valued Ginzburg-Landau equation as a representative example of second order pdes. The techniques will apply quite generally to second order reaction-diffusion equations in 2D. This is the first study implementing holistic discretisation in more than one spatial dimension. The previous applications of holistic discretisation have developed algebraic forms of the subgrid field and its evolution. I develop an algorithm for numerical construction of the subgrid field and its evolution for 1D and 2D pdes and explore various alternatives. This new development greatly extends the class of problems that may be discretised by the holistic technique. This is a vital step for the application of the holistic technique to higher spatial dimensions and towards discretising the Navier-Stokes equations.
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Huber, Florian, and Daniel Kaufmann. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2016. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4808/1/wp214.pdf.
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We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. The estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered. The model generally outperforms a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. (authors' abstract)<br>Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Norton, Colby Jackson. ""Worlds Beyond": A Stylistic Analysis of Collage in the Music of Daniel Schnyder as a Universal Model for the Bass Trombone Repertoire." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2020. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1707313/.
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The modern trombone player can experience a variety of styles on any given day. There is a need for the ability to switch between a plethora of styles ranging from avant-garde pieces to many forms of popular music to masterworks of the symphonic repertoire. It is the responsibility of the musician (performer or educator) to be familiar with all music due to global access via the internet. There is a responsibility to properly perform and respect music as more composers are beginning to blend different styles, genres, idioms, and cultures within the same composition. Daniel Schnyder is a prominent continuation of this style of musical collage that began with composers such as George Rochberg, Luciano Berio, Bernd Alois Zimmermann, and Charles Ives. The goal of this project is to analyze the stylistic saturation of Daniel Schnyder's Worlds Beyond Suite, focusing on performance and stylistic analysis to aid in an informed performance. This project will highlight the flexibility required by modern trombonists to perform with a deeper understanding of music in multiple styles, as the blending, juxtaposing, and superimposition of style is the universal future of music.
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Lunven, Sandrine. "Determinants and transmission of monetary policy in China." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM2016/document.
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L’objectif est d’analyser les déterminants et les mécanismes de transmission de la politique monétaire en Chine au cours des deux décennies passées. Elle contribue à la littérature par le biais de deux nouvelles mesures de la politique monétaire en Chine, l'une combinant les instruments utilisés par la banque centrale et l'autre basée sur les discours de la banque centrale sur la politique monétaire. Ces deux approches permettent de prendre en compte le comportement complexe et adaptatif de la banque centrale. Ces mesures permettent de mettre en évidence des changements substantiels dans le style de la politique à partir de 2002, plus graduelle et agressive envers l’inflation, en lien avec le début du mandat du gouverneur Xiaochuan, le processus de libéralisation des taux d’intérêt et l’ouverture commerciale et financière de la Chine. De plus, l’estimation d’un modèle à choix discret révèle une politique monétaire caractérisée par une politique accommodante sur l’inflation avant 2002 et un ciblage implicite de l’inflation à partir de 2002, similaire à celles du G3 pré- et post-1979. Enfin, cette thèse analyse les facteurs expliquant la déformation de la courbe des taux obligataires en Chine au cours de la dernière décennie. Alors que le contrôle des taux d’intérêt peut entraver l’usage de la courbe de taux comme référence pour évaluer les actifs risqués, celle-ci évolue bien en lien avec les autres instruments, la situation macroéconomique en Chine et de plus en plus aux communications de la banque centrale. Enfin, nos analyses révèlent l’influence de la politique monétaire américaine sur celle de la Chine et sur l’évolution de la courbe de taux sur la décennie passée<br>The objective of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of the determinants and the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in China over the last two decades. It contributes to the literature providing two new composite measures of monetary policy in China based on alternative approaches, one combining the large range of monetary policy instruments and the other based on central bank speeches. Both prove to be essential to take into account the complex and adaptive behavior of the People’s Bank of China (PBC). Our instrument-based monetary policy index emphasizes substantial changes in policy style towards smoother but more hawkish policy moves from 2002 onwards, consistent with the start of the mandate of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the interest rate liberalization process and the increasing trade and financial opening. Moreover, the estimation of a discrete-choice model implies a conduct of monetary policy characterized by an inflation-accommodating policy before 2002 and an implicit inflation targeting from 2002 onwards, which respectively resembles that of pre-1979 and post-1979 policy of the G3. Our thesis examines the deformation of the bond yield curve over the last decade to evaluate monetary policy transmission mechanisms. While regulated interest rates can hamper the use of the yield curve as benchmark for pricing risk, the latter moves in line with the other instruments, the macroeconomic situation, and increasingly to central bank communication, a crucial step toward a market oriented system. Finally, US monetary policy significantly affects monetary policy determinants and transmission mechanisms in China, particularly from its WTO accession in 2001
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Wang, Huan, and Huan Wang. "Flow Field Penetration in Thin Nanoporous Polymer Films under Laminar Flow by Förster Resonance Energy Transfer Coupled with Total Internal Reflectance Fluorescence Microscopy." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/565916.
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Tethered polymer layers at solid-fluid interfaces are used widely in a variety of surface science applications. Although many of these applications require exposure to dynamic flow conditions, flow field penetration into densely grafted polymer brushes, is still a question open to debate despite the fact that it is a fundamental process crucial to mass transport through these polymer films. Although most theoretical work has indicated flow field penetration into polymer films, with varying predicted penetration depths predicted, the limited experimental attempts to investigate this phenomenon have resulted in inconsistent conclusions due to lack of a proper analytical method. To help resolve this controversy, in this Dissertation, a new spectroscopic method, FRET-TIRFM, based on a combination of Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) and total internal reflectance fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM), is developed to provide the first direct, quantitative measurements on flow field penetration by measuring linear diffusion coefficients of small molecules through densely grafted, thin poly(N-isopropylacryl-amide) (pNIPAM) films. Decay curves from FRET of the acceptor with a donor covalently attached at the substrate surface were fit to a combined Taylor-Aris-Fickian diffusion model to obtain apparent linear diffusion coefficients of the acceptor molecules for different flow rates. These values can then be used to obtain quantitative estimates of flow field penetration depths. For a pNIPAM surface of 110 nm dry thickness, with a 0.6 chain/nm² grafting density, apparent diffusion coefficients ranging from 1.9-9.1 × 10-12 cm²/s were observed for flow rates ranging from 100 to 3000 μL/min. This increase in apparent diffusion coefficient with applied fluid flow rate is indicative of flow field penetration of the polymer film. The depth of penetration of the flow field is estimated to range from ~6% of the polymer film thickness to ~57% of the film thickness in going from 100 to 3000 μL/min flow rate of a good solvent. Factors other than flow rate that may impact flow field penetration were also investigated using this new FRET-TIRFM method. Solvent quality and polymer brush grafting density are the two most important parameters due to the fact that they influence changes in tethered polymer chain conformation. This work demonstrates that polymer films are most penetrable in a good solvent and least penetrable in a poor solvent under identical flow conditions. These findings are consistent with polymer chain conformational changes going from extended brushes to compact globules. For flow rates ranging from 100 to 3000 μL/min, flow field penetration depth ranges from ~6% of the film thickness to ~57% of film thickness for a good solvent compared to ~4% to ~19% for a poor solvent. Thus, by simply changing solvent quality from good to poor, flow field penetration decreases by about 38%. Grafting density has a less pronounced effect than solvent quality on penetration depth, probably due to the small range of grafting densities chosen for study. However, a roughly 10-20% difference in penetration depth was observed between high density (0.60 chain/nm²) and low density (0.27 chain/nm²) pNIPAM surfaces in the same solvent. Changes in grafting density have a less significant impact in a good solvent compared to a poor solvent. This is most likely caused by the fact that grafting density impacts polymer chain conformation mainly through polymer-polymer repulsion, which becomes less significant in a solvent that better solvates the polymer. For the two extreme cases studied here at flow rates ranging from 100 to 3000 μL/min, the penetration depth is estimated to range from ~4-19% of the original solvent-swollen film thickness for high density pNIPAM films in a poor solvent and from ~7-67% for low density films in a good solvent. One important assumption that underlies all of this work is that the dominant mass transport mechanism for small molecules in dense polymer brushes is diffusion. This assumption was further validated through the use of two different small molecule quenchers, RhB and 2-nitrobenzylalcohol. These molecules are significantly different in size, charge, and structure, and operate by different quenching mechanisms. Despite these differences, the results for flow field penetration are statistically the same for both. These observations validate the assumption of diffusive mass transport in these films.
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Almosova, Anna. "Essays on monetary macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19978.
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Diese Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit drei relevanten Aufgabebereichen einer Zentralbank und untersucht die makroökonomische Prognose, die Analyse der Geldpolitik in einem makroökonomischen Modell und die Analyse des Währungssystems. Jedes dieser Phänomene wird mit Hilfe des passenden Modells nach Nichtlinearitäten untersucht. Der erste Teil der Dissertation zeigt, dass nichtlineare rekurrente neuronale Netze, eine Methode aus dem Bereich Maschinelles Lernen, die Standard-Methoden übertreffen können und präzise Vorhersagen der Inflation in 1 bis 12 Monaten liefern können. Der zweiter Teil analysiert eine nichtlineare Formulierung der monetären Taylor-Regel. Anhand der Schätzung eines nichtlinearen DSGE Modells wird gezeigt, dass die Taylor-Regel in den USA asymmetrisch ist. Die Zentralbank ergreift stärkere Maßnahmen, wenn die Inflation höher ist als die Zielinflation, und reagiert weniger wenn die Inflation niedriger als die Zielinflation ist. Gleicherweise ist die Reaktion der monetären Politik stärker bei zu geringem Produktionswachstum als bei zu hohem. Der dritte Teil der Dissertation formuliert ein theoretisches Modell, das für eine Analyse der digitalen dezentralen Währungen verwendet werden kann. Es werden die Bedingungen bestimmt, unter denen der Wettbewerb zwischen der Währung der Zentralbank und den digitalen Währungen einige Beschränkungen für die Geldpolitik darstellt.<br>This thesis addresses three topics that are relevant for the central bank policy design. It analyzes forecasting of the macroeconomic time series, accurate monetary policy formulation in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model and monitoring of the novel developments in the monetary system. All these issues are analyzed in a nonlinear framework with the help of a macroeconomic model. The first part of the thesis shows that nonlinear recurrent neural networks – a method from the machine learning literature – outperforms the usual benchmark forecasting models and delivers accurate inflation predictions for 1 to 12 months ahead. The second part of the thesis analyzes a nonlinear formulation of the Taylor rule. With the help of the nonlinear Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model it shows that the Taylor rule in the US is asymmetric. The central bank reacts stronger to inflation when it is above the target than when it is below the target. Similarly, the reaction to the output growth rate is stronger when the output growth is too weak than when it is too strong. The last part of the thesis develops a theoretical model that is suitable for the analysis of decentralized digital currencies. The model is used to derive the conditions, under which the competition between digital and fiat currencies imposes restrictions on the monetary policy design.
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Vašíček, Bořek. "Empirical Essays on Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2002. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-77070.
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This dissertation is divided into four essays, each of them having its own structure and methodological framework. Although each of the essays making the chapters of the thesis is self-contained, their topics are very closely related. Consequently, the reader will be able to follow the thesis in its unity. Essay I is a selective survey of the extensive, mostly theoretic, literature dealing with monetary policy rules. We aim at contextualization of the monetary policy rules in the existing monetary economics literature. We explain the logic, the inspiration and the history of the rules for the monetary policy conduct. We distinguish between instrument rules and targeting rules as two basic categories. Finally, we resume specific issues related to policy rules for small open economies. Essay II studies the logic of short-term interest rate setting pursued by 15 EU countries before and after the launch of the EMU. We employ econometric estimation of the augmented Taylor rule (TR) for individual 15 EU countries and the Euro area. Although a vast empirical evidence is available for the major economies like the US, the UK or Germany, there is an important gap in our understanding of the factors behind the short-term interest rate dynamics in smaller economies. We find that in the period preceding the euro adoption, the TR is a poor representation of monetary policy setting in most EU countries and that many central banks considered decisions made by dominant economies rather than their domestic macroeconomic developments. The analysis of monetary policy rule of the ECB features additional problems related to the heterogeneity of the EMU. We argue that results based on Euro-area aggregated series, commonly presented in empirical studies, are subject to diverse econometric problems. We provide some evidence that the ECB is concerned also with national information and propose quasi-panel analysis as a viable framework. Essay III explores the relation between the existing monetary policy and domestic price stability in small open emerging economies, in particular the 12 EU new member states. This work has three principal objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authority of each country. The linear specification of the Taylor rule, applied already in the Essay II, is accompanied by an extensive analysis of nonlinearities in monetary policy rules and the inference on their possible sources. We find that the official monetary policy is sometimes inconsistent with the empirical evidence on the short term interest rate setting. The second objective consists in revealing the determinants of the inflation process. We have found that inflation rates are driven not only by backward persistency but also by the forward-looking component. Third, we employ analysis of the conditional inflation variance so as to give account on the viability of the existing monetary policy setting for price stability. We conclude that the policy of inflation targeting seems to be preferable to exchange rate peg because it allows decreasing not only inflation rate but also its conditional variance. Essay IV seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four CEEC (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and test when the predominant model of inflation, the New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC), is consistent with the data of these countries. According to the microfounded NKPC, the current inflation is related to inflation expectations and the real marginal cost. The empirical validity of this model has recently become a subject of major controversy in the monetary economics. Although we find some favorable evidence for the NKPC, it seems to be too restrictive model for small open economies. In particular, the failure of the NKPC to explain the inflation dynamics of these countries may be related to the assumption that inflation is related to forward-looking price setting of domestic monopolist firms while our evidence suggests that prices in CEEC have an important backward-looking component and the inflation is significantly driven by external factors like the exchange rate and the foreign inflation rate.
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Šlais, Miroslav. "Studium vlivu rychlostních a teplotních parametrů na tvařitelnost Ti slitin." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-234028.
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The PhD thesis deals with the influence of temperature and strain rate on the mechanical behaviour of the Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy. After verification tests under static loading conditions, the samples were deformed at high strain rates and elevated temperatures, using device for Hopkinson pressure bar test. The result is dependence of stress and strain rate on strain in the temperature range of 20 to 500°C. The deformed shape of specimen from the Taylor anvil test is compared with the results of the simulation in the Ansys – LS Dyna software. The parameters of Johnson-Cook equation were determined from these experiments. Also, the influence of loading conditions on the microstructure was studied. Both optical and scanning electron microscopes were used for the observations. During the research, some adjustments to the experimental devices were made in order to suppress the high-frequency components and noise in the recorded pulses. A functional tensile test adapter for the Hopkinson test was developed; it is registered under No. 2007/008 at the Technology Transfer Office of BUT.
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Mazuy, Nicolas. "Hétérogénéités en Union monétaire : quelles implications pour la zone euros ?" Thesis, Strasbourg, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020STRAB001.
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Cette thèse a pour objectif d’étudier l’implication des hétérogénéités structurelles dans le cadre des politiques économiques de la zone euro. Nous étudions d’abord dans quelles mesures ces hétérogénéités et l’introduction d’un objectif de stabilité financière attribué à la banque centrale affectent la stabilisation conjoncturelle suite aux chocs et la coordination entre les autorités monétaires et budgétaires. Nous montrons la pertinence croissante de la coordination avec le degré d’hétérogénéité et la pro-activité de la banque centrale suite à l’ajout de l’objectif de stabilité financière qui améliore/dégrade la stabilisation conjoncturelle selon le type de choc. Ensuite, nous étudions des fonctions de réaction budgétaire nationales qui démontrent l’hétérogénéité des comportements budgétaires des gouvernements et les différents déterminants des politiques budgétaires. Enfin, nous mettons en évidence l’impact hétérogène de la politique monétaire unique sur les pays membres. Ceci s’explique notamment par des caractéristiques structurelles hétérogènes dans les spécialisations productives, dans le fonctionnement des marchés financiers, marchés du travail etc. De même, nous posons la question de la pertinence d’une politique monétaire unique dans le cadre d’une union monétaire hétérogène, en l’absence de mécanisme d’ajustement<br>The aim of this thesis is to examine the implications of structural heterogeneities in the policy framework of the euro area. The first step is to analyse the extent to which structural heterogeneities and the introduction of a financial stability objective assigned to the central bank influence the coordination of monetary and fiscal authorities as well as the economic stabilization that follows after shocks. Noteworthy is the increasing relevance of coordination with the degree of heterogeneity on the one hand and a proactivity of the central bank on the other hand, which improve / corrupts cyclical stabilization according to the type of shock after a financial stability objective has been added. Next step is to examine the fiscal reaction functions in the euro area to demonstrate the heterogeneity of government fiscal behavior on the one hand and the determinants of these fiscal policies on the other. Finally, we look at the impact of the single monetary policy on the euro area Member States and highlight a completely heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy, caused in particular by structural heterogeneities in productive specializations, functioning of financial and labor markets, just to name a few. Here, we ask about the relevance of single monetary policy in the context of heterogeneous monetary union without any mechanism of adjustment
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Wang, Rudan. "Taylor rule based exchange rate models with wealth effects." Thesis, University of Bath, 2015. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.669035.
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This thesis focuses on the relationship between the exchange rate and its determinants using an endogenous monetary policy rule as represented by the Taylor rule. Compared to the recent literature on out-of-sample exchange rate predictability, I extend the model of Molodtsova and Papell (2009) by including two variables representing wealth effects, as has been suggested in the standard Taylor rule models. Using quarterly data from 1975-2008, I first investigate the econometric properties of the Taylor rule applied to U.K., Australian and Swedish data against the US dollar. Various unit root tests indicate that variables commonly used in such models are likely to be integrated of order one. However, by accounting for structural breaks, I can conclude that all variables are stationary. Parameter estimates suggest wealth effects are strongly related to the nominal exchange rates in these countries, in contrast to the standard monetary variables. Furthermore, I evaluate short-horizon exchange rate predictability with the Taylor rule fundamentals model for the U.S. dollar against the Australian dollar, Swedish Krona and British Pound. Following the recent literature, a robust set of out-of-sample statistics, including the Clark and West statistic, Diebold-Mariano statistics and Theil’s U ratio are used to evaluate the forecast performance. Current results from the Theil’s U ratio and CW statistics shows the Taylor rule incorporating the wealth effect improves the short run exchange rate forecast performance. Finally, we model the exchange rate from 1975 to 2008 as a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) based model in which a series of economically meaningful transition variables drive the movement across exchange rate regimes. The overall findings show strong evidence supporting the nonlinear relationship between the exchange rate and economic variables. Moreover, the STR Taylor rule models of the exchange rate substantially outperform both the random walk model and the linear Taylor rule model in forecasting the exchange rate.
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Bot, Patrick. "Modes d'instabilités secondaires et supérieures dans le systèmes de Taylor-Dean." Le Havre, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998LEHA0012.
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Le système de Taylor-Dean est compose de deux cylindres d'axe commun horizontal en rotation différentielle. L'espace entre les cylindres est partiellement rempli d'un liquide. Cette etude experimentale a pour but de caracteriser la transition vers le chaos spatio-temporel du motif de rouleaux propagatifs inclines, lorsque l'on augmente le nombre de reynolds du cylindre interieur, alors que le cylindre exterieur est fixe. Pour mesurer les variations des proprietes locales du motif, nous avons mis en œuvre une technique de démodulation complexe des signaux spatio-temporels. Le motif de rouleaux primaires comporte des défauts spatio-temporels dus aux collisions entre rouleaux. Ces défauts, caractérises par la divergence du gradient de phase, apparaissent périodiquement dans le temps. L'instabilité secondaire du motif de rouleaux se manifeste par une modulation spatio-temporelle des rouleaux de courte longueur d'onde, donnant lieu à des triplets. L'évolution en fonction du nombre de Reynolds, de l'amplitude de la modulation de la phase (paramètre d'ordre) montre la nature supercritique de la transition. Avec l'augmentation du paramètre de contrôle, les triplets subissent des collisions et des trous d'amplitude de type Nozaki-Bekki. Dans le régime chaotique, nous avons détecté un nouveau mode d'instabilité, caractérisé par une oscillation des triplets, avec une fréquence incommensurable avec celle des rouleaux et celle des triplets.
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Sun, Yong. "Reliability prediction of complex repairable systems : an engineering approach." Queensland University of Technology, 2006. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/16273/.
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This research has developed several models and methodologies with the aim of improving the accuracy and applicability of reliability predictions for complex repairable systems. A repairable system is usually defined as one that will be repaired to recover its functions after each failure. Physical assets such as machines, buildings, vehicles are often repairable. Optimal maintenance strategies require the prediction of the reliability of complex repairable systems accurately. Numerous models and methods have been developed for predicting system reliability. After an extensive literature review, several limitations in the existing research and needs for future research have been identified. These include the follows: the need for an effective method to predict the reliability of an asset with multiple preventive maintenance intervals during its entire life span; the need for considering interactions among failures of components in a system; and the need for an effective method for predicting reliability with sparse or zero failure data. In this research, the Split System Approach (SSA), an Analytical Model for Interactive Failures (AMIF), the Extended SSA (ESSA) and the Proportional Covariate Model (PCM), were developed by the candidate to meet the needs identified previously, in an effective manner. These new methodologies/models are expected to rectify the identified limitations of current models and significantly improve the accuracy of the reliability prediction of existing models for repairable systems. The characteristics of the reliability of a system will alter after regular preventive maintenance. This alternation makes prediction of the reliability of complex repairable systems difficult, especially when the prediction covers a number of imperfect preventive maintenance actions over multiple intervals during the asset's lifetime. The SSA uses a new concept to address this issue effectively and splits a system into repaired and unrepaired parts virtually. SSA has been used to analyse system reliability at the component level and to address different states of a repairable system after single or multiple preventive maintenance activities over multiple intervals. The results obtained from this investigation demonstrate that SSA has an excellent ability to support the making of optimal asset preventive maintenance decisions over its whole life. It is noted that SSA, like most existing models, is based on the assumption that failures are independent of each other. This assumption is often unrealistic in industrial circumstances and may lead to unacceptable prediction errors. To ensure the accuracy of reliability prediction, interactive failures were considered. The concept of interactive failure presented in this thesis is a new variant of the definition of failure. The candidate has made several original contributions such as introducing and defining related concepts and terminologies, developing a model to analyse interactive failures quantitatively and revealing that interactive failure can be either stable or unstable. The research results effectively assist in avoiding unstable interactive relationship in machinery during its design phase. This research on interactive failures pioneers a new area of reliability prediction and enables the estimation of failure probabilities more precisely. ESSA was developed through an integration of SSA and AMIF. ESSA is the first effective method to address the reliability prediction of systems with interactive failures and with multiple preventive maintenance actions over multiple intervals. It enhances the capability of SSA and AMIF. PCM was developed to further enhance the capability of the above methodologies/models. It addresses the issue of reliability prediction using both failure data and condition data. The philosophy and procedure of PCM are different from existing models such as the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). PCM has been used successfully to investigate the hazard of gearboxes and truck engines. The candidate demonstrated that PCM had several unique features: 1) it automatically tracks the changing characteristics of the hazard of a system using symptom indicators; 2) it estimates the hazard of a system using symptom indicators without historical failure data; 3) it reduces the influence of fluctuations in condition monitoring data on hazard estimation. These newly developed methodologies/models have been verified using simulations, industrial case studies and laboratory experiments. The research outcomes of this research are expected to enrich the body of knowledge in reliability prediction through effectively addressing some limitations of existing models and exploring the area of interactive failures.
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Kim, Hyeongwoo. "Essays on exchange rate models under a Taylor rule type monetary policy." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1148588616.
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Huber, Florian. "Structural breaks in Taylor rule based exchange rate models - Evidence from threshold time varying parameter models." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2017. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5461/1/wp244.pdf.
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In this note we develop a Taylor rule based empirical exchange rate model for eleven major currencies that endogenously determines the number of structural breaks in the coefficients. Using a constant parameter specification and a standard time-varying parametermodel as competitors reveals that our flexible modeling framework yields more precise density forecasts for all major currencies under scrutiny over the last 24 years.<br>Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Borges, Filho João Philippi. "Regra de Taylor no Brasil e preços de ativos financeiros: 1999-2005." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/305.
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Previous issue date: 2006-09-04<br>Esta dissertação tem o propósito de testar a hipótese de que o Banco Central do Brasil não considera os preços de ativos financeiros em sua função de reação da política monetária. A primeira parte é dedicada ao estudo da literatura atual sobre a relação entre política monetária e preços de ativos financeiros, na qual foram identificadas três correntes de pensamento distintas sobre o tema. Numa segunda etapa, são avaliados alguns modelos com base na estimativa proposta por Soares e Barbosa (2006), porém com a inserção de uma variável de preços de ações. Assim como em Dupor e Conley (2004), os resultados empíricos mostram que a inclusão dessa variável torna o hiato do produto não significativo.
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Björklund, Pontus, and Ellinor Hegart. "Taylor-regelns aktualitet och tillämpbarhet : En jämförelse av Taylor-skattningar i Brasilien, Kanada, Polen, Sverige och Sydafrika för åren 2000-2013." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-111583.
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John B. Taylor, professor i nationalekonomi vid Stanford University, presenterade år 1993 en penningpolitisk regel som syftade till att vara ett hjälpmedel för centralbanker vid räntebeslut. Taylor-regeln är mycket enkel i sitt uförande och baseras på att styrräntan bör sättas efter två variabler: BNP-gapet och inflationsavvikelsen. Denna styrränteregel fick genomslag inom den vetenskapliga världen men spreds även till makroekonomisk praktik och medförde stora förändringar för penningpolitiken. Flera empriska studier har publicerats sedan Taylor-regeln tillkom och det råder det delade meningar om hur väl Taylor-regeln presterar för olika typer av ekonomier och hur användbar den är idag. Det har även uppkomit nya teorier angående trögheten i effekterna av styrränteförändringar och vid vilken tidpunkt dessa får en inverkan på inflationstakten. Syftet med denna uppsats är att jämföra hur väl den ursprungliga Taylor-modellen och en tidslaggad modell förklarar centralbankernas historiska styrräntesättning i fem länder med inflationsmål under tidsperioden 2000-2013. Analysen av resultaten görs med utgångspunkt i ländernas olika ekonomiska egenskaper samt tidsperioden som studien omfattar. Studien begränsas till jämförelser av de två Taylor-modellernas tillämpbarhet vid styrräntesättningar för länderna Brasilien, Kanada, Polen, Sverige och Sydafrika. De två modellerna modifieras också med en styrränteutjämningsfunktion. Våra resultat tyder på att den ursprungliga Taylor-regeln presterar bättre i förhållande till den tidslaggade modellen när det gäller att förklara den faktiska styrräntesättningen idag för alla länder i studien utom Polen. Den tidslaggade presterar dock bättre än den ursprungliga för de utvecklade ekonomierna Sverige och Kanada under 1990-talet. Båda modellerna gör kraftiga över- och underskattningar som till stor del avhjälps med den utjämningsfunktion som vi tillämpar. Koefficienterna hålls konstanta över hela tidsperioden, vilket inte är rimligt då en viss dynamik bör inkluderas så att regeln justeras efter varje period då för mycket vikt läggs vid BNP-variabeln som såldes är en bidragande faktor till regelns över- och underskattningar. Regeln presterar bättre för ekonomier med stabila förhållanden mellan tillväxttakt och inflationstakt än för länder som lider av mer volatila förhållanden mellan dessa två variabler, likt tillväxtländerna i vår studie. Dessutom ger Taylor-regeln skattningar som ligger närmre den faktiska styrräntesättningen under de tidigare delarna av perioden för att sedan till större del börja avvika från den faktiskt satta styrräntan. Slutsatserna som kan dras utifrån våra resultat är att den ursprungliga Taylor-regeln presterar bäst i att beskriva ett lands styrräntesättning sett till kvantitativa mått medan en tidslaggad modell tar större hänsyn faktiska förhållanden. Över lag presterar modellerna bättre för de utvecklade ekonomierna än för tillväxtekonomierna och huruvida storleken på ekonomin har någon inverkan är svårt att avgöra. Resultaten tyder också på att Taylor-regeln med tidslagg ligger närmre den faktiska styrräntesättningen för de utvecklade ekonomierna under 1990-talet än under perioden 2000-2013 medan den ursprungliga presterar bättre idag.<br>John. B Taylor, professor of Economics at Stanford University, presented a monetary policy rule in 1993 which intended to help central banks with their interst rate decisions. In its design the Taylor-rule was very simple and based on only two variables: the GDP-gap and the deviation of actual inflation from the inflation target. The Taylor rule had a great impact on the academic research and also contributed to changes within monetary policy around the world. Many empirical studies have been published on the Taylor rule and there are divided contentions about its applicability in different kind of economies and its relevance today. New theories have also been published regardning the time aspect of the impact on inflation due to a change in the interest rate. The intentions of this study is to make a comparsion between the original Taylor rule and a Taylor rule including a time lag regarding how well they describe the actual interest rates set by the central banks in five countries during the period 2000-2013. The results will be analyzed under consideration of the different economies attributes. The study compares the two kinds of Taylor rules and the applicability in describing the historical interest rate in Brazil, Canada, Poland, Sweden and South Africa. The two rules have also been modified with an interest rate smoothing-function. Our results conclude that the original Taylor rule describes the historical interest rate better than the rule including a time lag for the time period 2000-2013 for all countries apart from Poland. For the developed economies Canada and Sweden the time lagged model show less deviations for the 1990’s. However both rules tend to over and underestimate the valutation of the interest rate. The smoothing function does to some extent correct this problem. The coefficients of the variables are held constant during the study which in reality should not be the case. They should instead be adjusted between every period to make allowances for the different relationship of the two variables. Mostly too much weight is put on the GDP-variable which should be a contributing cause of the overestimations. The rules do however have the tendency to describe the historical interst rate of the developed economies superior to the developing economies. The performance is greater at the beginning of the period with less deviation from the actual outcome than later on. The conclusion of our study is that the original Taylor rule generally performs superior to the one including time lag with conciderations to the deviations from the actual interest rates. However, the Taylor rule including the time-lag does allow for actual circumstances which the original Taylor rule does not take into consideration. Mainly the rules do perform better for developed economies compared to developing economies. Regarding the impact of the size of the economy on the applicability of the rules it was difficult to conclude anything specific. The Taylor rule with the time-lag is more applicable for the developed economies during the earlier time period, the 1990’s, than the later time period, the 2000’s where the original Taylor rule shows less deviations.
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Eaves, Thomas Scott. "Generalised nonlinear stability of stratified shear flows : adjoint-based optimisation, Koopman modes, and reduced models." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2016. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/260824.
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In this thesis I investigate a number of problems in the nonlinear stability of density stratified plane Couette flow. I begin by describing the history of transient growth phenomena, and in particular the recent application of adjoint based optimisation to find nonlinear optimal perturbations and associated minimal seeds for turbulence, the smallest amplitude perturbations that are able to trigger transition to turbulence. I extend the work of Rabin et al. (2012) in unstratified plane Couette flow to find minimal seeds in both vertically and horizontally sheared stratified plane Couette flow. I find that the coherent states visited by such minimal seed trajectories are significantly altered by the stratification, and so proceed to investigate these states both with generalised Koopman mode analysis and by stratifying the self-sustaining process described by Waleffe (1997). I conclude with an introductory problem I considered that investigates the linear Taylor instability of layered stratified plane Couette flow, and show that the nonlinear evolution of the primary Taylor instability is not coupled to the form of the linearly unstable mode, in contrast to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, for example. I also include an appendix in which I describe joint work conducted with Professor Neil Balmforth of UBC during the 2015 WHOI Geophysical Fluid Dynamics summer programme, investigating stochastic homoclinic bifurcations.
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Dula, Mark, Eunice Mogusu, Sheryl Strasser, Ying Liu, and Shimin Zheng. "Median and Mode Approximation for Skewed Unimodal Continuous Distributions using Taylor Series Expansion." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2016. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/112.
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Background: Measures of central tendency are one of the foundational concepts of statistics, with the most commonly used measures being mean, median, and mode. While these are all very simple to calculate when data conform to a unimodal symmetric distribution, either discrete or continuous, measures of central tendency are more challenging to calculate for data distributed asymmetrically. There is a gap in the current statistical literature on computing median and mode for most skewed unimodal continuous distributions. For example, for a standardized normal distribution, mean, median, and mode are all equal to 0. The mean, median, and mode are all equal to each other. For a more general normal distribution, the mode and median are still equal to the mean. Unfortunately, the mean is highly affected by extreme values. If the distribution is skewed either positively or negatively, the mean is pulled in the direction of the skew; however, the median and mode are more robust statistics and are not pulled as far as the mean. The traditional response is to provide an estimate of the median and mode as current methodological approaches are limited in determining their exact value once the mean is pulled away. Methods: The purpose of this study is to test a new statistical method, utilizing the first order and second order partial derivatives in Taylor series expansion, for approximating the median and mode of skewed unimodal continuous distributions. Specifically, to compute the approximated mode, the first order derivatives of the sum of the first three terms in the Taylor series expansion is set to zero and then the equation is solved to find the unknown. To compute the approximated median, the integration from negative infinity to the median is set to be one half and then the equation is solved for the median. Finally, to evaluate the accuracy of our derived formulae for computing the mode and median of the skewed unimodal continuous distributions, simulation study will be conducted with respect to skew normal distributions, skew t-distributions, skew exponential distributions, and others, with various parameters. Conclusions: The potential of this study may have a great impact on the advancement of current central tendency measurement, the gold standard used in public health and social science research. The study may answer an important question concerning the precision of median and mode estimates for skewed unimodal continuous distributions of data. If this method proves to be an accurate approximation of the median and mode, then it should become the method of choice when measures of central tendency are required.
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Chen, Xin Verfasser], Erika [Akademischer Betreuer] [Ábrahám, and Sriram [Akademischer Betreuer] Sankaranarayanan. "Reachability analysis of non-linear hybrid systems using Taylor Models / Xin Chen ; Erika Ábrahám, Sriram Sankaranarayanan." Aachen : Universitätsbibliothek der RWTH Aachen, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1181107857/34.
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Quaresma, Ferraz Arimatea. "Análise e determinação dos parâmetros da estrutura algébrica de Taylor tendo o desgaste da ferramenta de corte como variável dependente." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2008. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/5263.
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Previous issue date: 2008<br>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior<br>Este trabalho visa mostrar os resultados analisados a partir de dois modelos dos quais
serão designados por Taylor Simples e Taylor Expandida para a mensuração do desgaste da
ferramenta de corte. Foram analisados os dados obtidos dos desgastes da ferramenta de corte
pelas funções em comparação com os dados reais medidos, que se encontram o Anexo I deste
trabalho. Nos experimentos de usinagem com estes aços foram utilizadas oito e seis diferentes
condições de corte para o ABNT 1038 e 1045 respectivamente. A partir dos dados reais e os
calculados pelos modelos foram feitas algumas análises dos comportamentos dos resultados
calculados para termos uma noção da eficiência dos modelos obtidos a partir da correlação
múltipla das seguintes variáveis: velocidade, tempo de corte, avanço e profundidade de corte
em função do desgaste da ferramenta (vida útil da ferramenta)
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Perruchoud, Alexander. "Swiss monetary policy rules, effects, and indicators." Berlin dissertation.de, 2007. http://d-nb.info/987389912/04.
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Quintanilha, Laura de Mesquita. "Análise do modelo de fluxo de potência retangular intervalar baseado na expansão completa da série de Taylor." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), 2018. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/7554.
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Previous issue date: 2018-07-20<br>A análise de fluxo de potência visa calcular as tensões nas barras e as correntes nos
ramos, para um dado cenário pré-estabelecido de geração e carga. É uma ferramenta essencial na operação e no controle dos sistemas elétricos de potência. Na análise tradicional, os parâmetros são tratados como quantidades determinísticas. Contudo, na prática, esses parâmetros podem apresentar incertezas associadas à medição ou à variação inerente ao longo do tempo. Em adição, o crescimento da participação de fontes intermitentes, como eólica e solar, em redes elétricas, aumenta o grau de incerteza e, portanto, estudos específicos de fluxo de potência devem ser desenvolvidos no sentido de tratar esta possível variabilidade de dados. Neste contexto, este trabalho investiga um método, publicado na literatura, que modela o fluxo de potência sujeito a incertezas associadas às cargas ativa e reativa das barras. A idéia básica deste método é proceder a expansão completa, em termos da série de Taylor, das equações de potência expressas em coordenadas retangulares das tensões nas barras. O método é implementado em MATLAB, considerando diferentes incertezas aplicadas aos sistemas IEEE 57 barras e brasileiro de 107 barras. Os resultados são, então, comparados com aqueles gerados pela matemática intervalar e pela simulação de Monte Carlo. De forma geral, a qualidade dos intervalos gerados pelo método em estudo é melhor que aquela apresentada pela matemática
intervalar.<br>The power flow analysis aims to calculate bus voltage and current in branches, for a
given pre-established scenario of generation and load. It is an essential tool in electrical power systems operation and control In traditional analysis, the parameters are treated as deterministic values. However, in practice, these parameters may present uncertainties associated with measurement as well as their inherent variation over the time. In addition, the growth of intermittent sources participation, such as wind and solar, into power grids has increased the uncertainties level, which demands the development of specific power flow studies in order to deal with data variability. In this context, this work investigates a method published in literature, that models the power flow subject to uncertainties associated with active and reactive bus loads. The basic idea of this method is to carry out the complete expansion of power equations,
in terms of Taylor series, expressed in rectangular coordinates of bus voltages. The method is implemented in MATLAB, considering different uncertainties applied to IEEE 57 bus and Brazilian 107 bus. The results are then compared with those generated by interval mathematics and Monte Carlo simulation. In general, the quality of this method generated intervals is better than that presented by interval mathematics.