Academic literature on the topic 'Temporary structures (Building)'

While the Building Act includes a separate provision (Article 20) for temporary buildings, distinct from (permanent) buildings, it does not offer a formal definition for these temporary constructions. As a result, there arises an interpretational challenge in distinguishing between temporary buildings and buildings. The commonly accepted perspective defines temporary buildings as structures that do not satisfy the criterion of “fixed on land,” one of the requirements for a building stipulated under Article 2 of the Building Act. However, the requirement of “fixed on land” cannot be uniformly evaluated based on a single standard; instead, it necessitates a comprehensive assessment considering factors such as scale, form, structure, materials, and purpose. Consequently, and practically, there may be instances where temporary buildings, which were initially not “fixed on land,” acquire this requirement as a result of expansion. It is obvious that building permits or notifications are required when extending temporary buildings to construct (permanent) buildings. However, further consideration is necessary regarding the content and scope of such permits or notifications. If the structure resulting from extending a temporary building satisfies all the requirements for a (permanent) building, the physical changes before and after the extension would constitute an extension under the Building Act, but in terms of granting building permissibility (“건축허용성”), the extension is comparable to a new construction and therefore should be treated the same as a new construction under the Building Act. Nevertheless, the fact that a building permit for a new construction is required to extend a temporary building does not necessarily imply that “constructing a (permanent) building through extending a temporary building” is not permissible.

Abstract Historical masonry structures that make up the cultural assets of a country constitute the identity of the society to which it belongs. For this reason, it should be protected and should be transferred from generation to generation. Earthquakes are threatening action to masonry structures. The force generated by the ground movement may cause shear cracks in masonry structures that may lead to fragmentation and even collapse of the structure. It is necessary to know the earthquake behaviour of masonry structures to be able to apply appropriate temporary shoring system after a damage caused by earthquake in order to prevent the future damages during aftershocks. Thus, the progress of the damages in the building is prevented and it is ensured to survive until detailed investigation or restoration. However, when the applied temporary shoring system designs were examined, the environmental conditions of the building were not taken into account in any guideline on immediate shoring. In this paper, temporary shoring system for 3 traditional houses of Bey District is designed for possible earthquake damages. This district has many registered civil architectures lined side by side along very narrow streets. Some masonry buildings were changed to reinforced concrete with multiple floors. This study includes the registration status of the buildings, their location, the number of floors to be supported, the heights between floors, the height of the forces that can be brought by the adjacent building elements, the width of the street where the facade to be supported, whether there is a window or door opening in the facade to be supported etc. If there are window or door openings, the distances of the opening to the corner points of the building and the distances between the two openings has to be recorded. According to these determinations, possible damages that may occur in the buildings are defined and a temporary shoring system is designed in accordance with the buildings and the surrounding conditions.

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a relevant booster to the modernization of construction. The adoption of digital technologies positively contributes to more agile and integrated processes in all phases of the building life-cycle, namely with regard to project management activities. The implementation of BIM has been predominant in new building projects, but the current market cycle of the rehabilitation or refurbishing of existing buildings offers new opportunities of application to be explored. This paper explores such opportunities, namely with regard to the temporary construction works involved in urban rehabilitation projects with the preservation of the façades of the original buildings. It specifically addresses the impacts of the modeling efforts of steel frames and structures needed to temporarily support façades, after the demolition of the old buildings, and until the original façade is reintegrated into the structural elements of the new building. In a BIM context, an 8D model is created to explore BIM capabilities in enabling more efficient occupation safety and health coordination and management activities in building rehabilitation projects, namely in improving and validating the demolitions and construction methods and sequencing, the scheduling of construction works, and the mandatory occupational risk prevention documents for the construction site. The development of the research was supported on the use of the available BIM software: Revit, to model the façade and the temporary steel structural system; Microsoft Project, to schedule the construction works; Navisworks, to perform clash detection analyses and enable visual simulations for occupational risk, and its identification and mitigation. The study intends to contribute to the dissemination of BIM capabilities to improve occupation safety and health in construction, namely in rehabilitation projects involving temporary structures while contributing with innovative perspectives toward higher maturity in BIM implementation and use in the construction sector.

Alastair Soane and John Cutlack mark the publication of a new edition of the Institution's guide to temporary demountable structures by introducing readers to the key considerations in their design, erection and dismantling.

Temporary accommodation facilities are largely a reflection of socio-economic processes in the middle of society at a certain stage of its existence. The structure of modern hotels bears the imprint of historical prototypes that were formed in countries with different cultural, social, and architectural traditions. Studying the historical evolution of such institutions makes it possible to determine certain historical stages of their formation, identify modern development prospects and outline futuristic directions for their modernization. The article examines the historical evolution of temporary accommodation facilities, the formation and development of their typology. The peculiarities of the architectural and planning organization of hotel establishments of different periods of construction are established. The impact of socio-economic factors on the formation of temporary accommodation facilities at various stages of human development is monitored. The main stages of the development of hotels are highlighted: the ancient period, the Middle Ages, modern times, the formation of the concept of "hotel" at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries. Selected periods of rapid development: the beginning of the 20th century up to the period of the world economic crisis of the 1930s; 1950-60 (the end of World War II, the formation of mass tourism); 1980s - the beginning of the 21st century (the flourishing of international tourism); 2020 - to the present days (the impact of the global pandemic Сovid-19, the war in Ukraine, the general global economic recession). During the last decades, taking into account the climatic, ecological, man-made and socio-political challenges, the hotel business has become characterized by: a certain departure from "internationalization" in the architectural and design solutions of hotel establishments; appeal to national cultural traditions; specialization of hotels; expansion of the network of institutions of medium-low level of comfort; the direction of ecological and energy-efficient construction; the use of "theatrical effects" and futurism in the design of hotel interiors and exteriors; spread of eco-hotels, "green tourism" facilities, "capsule hotels". The article deals with the issues of architectural and figurative transformation of buildings during the reconstruction of historical industrial enterprises (mid-eighteenth century - first half of the XX century). The main principles for the implementation of such a transformation are determined: ensuring urban integrity; preservation of the historical image of industrial architecture; nuances in their general architectural and spatial organization (symbiosis with the environment); contrast between old and new; compliance with national and regional cultural traditions; environmentally friendly solutions. Examples of the application of these principles in the world practice of the reconstruction of industrial buildings for various public functions are analyzed. Techniques that allow to implement these principles in the renovation of historical buildings are defined. These methods include: conservation and restoration of the characteristic elements of industrial architecture; reuse of authentic materials and designs; the inclusion of industrial equipment in the interiors and exteriors of objects of reconstruction; the use of forms, materials, structures, furniture - contrasting with the primary industrial structure while ensuring symbiosis with the environment due to the nuanced solution of the overall composition, the delicate inclusion of new elements, the preservation of rhythmic patterns, the use of building and finishing materials, elements of architectural «camouflage» (grids, perforations, glazing, openwork metal structures, etc.); «absorption» of old buildings or their parts by new structures. In addition, an accentuated appeal to the characteristic features of the national cultural traditions of the construction region, the use of local building and finishing materials, forms, structures, the use of local ornaments, patterns, objects of arts and crafts is proposed. It is recommended to use environmentally friendly materials, landscaping elements in the interiors and exteriors of buildings, the formation of a building area using the natural landscape along with the inclusion of industrial elements of industrial architecture.

Abstract Cities today face multifaceted challenges, encompassing resource-depleting construction practices, outdated building stocks, and a scarcity of affordable spaces. A significant concern arises from the proliferation of unused buildings, exemplified by the 6.5 million square meter of vacant space in the Brussels Capital Region alone. This phenomenon not only threatens urban vitality and security but also results in wasted resources and economic stagnation. However, this study illuminates a transformative potential within these challenges: the emergence of temporary projects in vacant industrial buildings, organized in anticipation of future projects, as dynamic urban instruments. The in-depth case study analysis of five modern-day temporary projects in Brussels illustrated the multifaceted nature of temporary use projects. All projects breathe new life into inert structures, become testing grounds for various projects and become local meeting places. Yet, their nature and specificities vary. As such, temporary projects can become hubs of social, cultural, creative, sports, and/or productive activities, resonating with principles of the circular economy. Particularly noteworthy is the rise of makerspaces within these temporary settings, identified in Brussel’s temporary project and insured by enlarging the research scope and including four additional temporary projects. Multiple makerspaces are recurring in the analyzed temporary projects, resulting in the identification of temporary makerspace’s types: material banks, shared workspaces, various ateliers, repair cafés, and logistics. These temporary makerspaces exemplify creativity, collaboration, and circular innovation. As such, they not only put forward the practice of making, but emphasize community building, exchange, and knowledge transfer. Thus, by harnessing the potential of temporary projects and makerspaces, cities can transform neglect to vitality, fostering sustainability, inclusivity, and resilience in the urban landscape.

Every construction project requires a plan of construction site, where storage areas, temporary roads, social containers, machinery parks etc. are shown. The location of the machinery park on a building site is very important. Cost is the most important factor for both, civil engineering structures and buildings in terms of the machinery movement. The everyday building machinery transport from the park to the working positions is time and cost consuming. Four possible solution of the location of temporary roads, necessary for such transport of the construction machinery, were discussed. Finding the optimum location of machinery park was presented, and case study calculations were made. Two dimension problem simulation has been applied, enhanced by heuristic algorithms to solve the discussed matter.

the intention of this creative project, is to explore the concept of the idea of temporary permanence in architecture. the project is an attempt to put into architectural perspective an understanding, meaning and context of the relative permanence of architecture as a parallel physical and conceptual idea over time. the relationship of the various forces that shape, mold and influence the architectural environment is a major part of the natural evolution of the continuing adaptation to change within our environment. from an architectural and general outlook this means being able to understand the phenomenon of change and respecting its existence. without change the idea of temporary permanence would not exist.the paper is presented in two parts. the first part, consists of the creative project of the paper, presenting the second phase research development and the architectural exploration of the theoretical disposition, temporary permanence. the second part, found in Appendix 1, is the research paper documenting "raw data", personal observation and experience, and examples of site context as a supportive basis for the reasoning of such a disposition.
Department of Architecture

Nowadays, the improvement in Computer Graphics has benefited fields such as Cultural Heritage, where the main efforts have focused on the digital preservation of historic buildings or urban structures. In this thesis, we have developed a technique to procedurally model ancient stone buildings combined with structural simulation and we have demonstrated its viability based on non-specialized tools designed for cultural heritage users. On the other hand, some historical events involving natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, determined the evolution of the city urban infrastructure. In this thesis, we present a low-cost tool that allows the reproduction of an earthquake on old stone buildings. Furthermore, in this thesis, we have also designed a virtual reality pipeline compatible with low-cost smart-phones that allows the recreation of historical events
Avui dia, les millores en Gràfics per Computador ha beneficiat camps com el Patrimoni Cultural, on els esforços principals s’han centrat en la preservació digital d’edificis històrics o estructures urbanes. En aquesta tesi hem desenvolupat una tècnica per modelar de manera procedural edificis antics, combinant-la amb simulació estructural, i hem demostrat la seva viabilitat basada en eines no especialitzades dissenyades per a usuaris de patrimoni cultural. D’altra banda, alguns esdeveniments històrics relacionats amb fenòmens naturals, com terratrèmols, van determinar l’evolució urbana d’una ciutat. En aquesta tesi presentem una eina de baix cost que permet la reproducció d’un terratrèmol en edificis antics. A més a més, en aquesta tesi hem dissenyat un sistema de realitat virtual adequat i compatible amb telèfons intel·ligents de baix cost que permet la recreació d’esdeveniments històrics

The diploma thesis is engaged of selected parts of the construction-technology project of a factory building with an administration building in Hustopeče. The construction-technology project contains technical account construction of technological solutions, project of temporary works designed to perform construction, time and financial plan and detailed time plan for rough construction, includes inspection and test plan and technological standard for solution of lower structures of solutions object. In another input is made technological study of the chief technological stage and budget for rough lower structures. As specialization is solution fire safety of buildings.

博士
國立雲林科技大學
工程科技研究所
106
The importance of dismantling contemporary construction after finishing the construction often is neglected by the builder. Above all the collapse cases happened in the construction sector, the severest one is that heavy casualties caused by the collapse of the Falsework. Besides, in order to cooperate with Urban Renewal, it is common that accidents caused by exterior walls renovation project scaffolding collapse. It bring about not only the constructors casualties problems but also passengers. Now the design of contemporary construction in Taiwan, we often use ASD of Elastic Analysis in Steel structure design. This kind of method only considers the safety factors of the structure which cannot evaluate the shoring structure load capacities which is close to the reality of LRFD. This research is based on the Reliability-Based Design, building falsework on load factors and the strength reduction factor to replace the「ASD」in Safety Factor ,to provide the design of the falsework. Nowadays, the rule of the steel structure design in the developed countries, such as Europe or the U.S. A. is that they should use second-order analysis. We can directly simulate the structure after loading dynamic behaviors, which can evaluate the load capacities or failure model correctly. This study discuss about dynamic behaviors of compound falsework. We take second-order analysis and full-size compound falsework indoor and outdoor structure load test in order to prove the accuracy of the second-order analysis. Moreover, the study focus on the second-order analysis used in the outer wall fixing scaffolding, at the same time, to confirm the reasons of collapse and failure model. According to the results of the research, setting jack base under the scaffolding can rise the load-bearing capacity of the scaffolding. It won’t have much effect if setting the upper U base. The load-bearing capacity in combined scaffolds only reaches half lead-bearing capacity with the same height of only one kind scaffolding. The load-bearing capacity of the scaffolding will rise complying with the number of the scaffolding, not with the multiple of the scaffolding. According to the experiment of outdoor combined setup, it can achieve the lateral bracing reinforcement effect without supporting capacity on the top. Using the Second-order Analysis to simulate the combined setup, we can get the destroyed mode which is much more accurate and close to the reality. It can also be beneficial to rising the supporting system of the safety assessment. The foot pedal of the scaffolding of out wall can restrain the scaffolding to become deformed, and at the same time, rise the load-bearing capacity of the unilateral cross-bar. It made no difference with bilateral cross-bar. It should take notice that scaffolding built at the entrance destroy the cross-bar. When the lateral force of scaffolding of out wall renovation project is getting stronger, the structure of the scaffolding gets lower. According to this research, we can use the axial-force and bending moment relation chart as reference when designing scaffolding of the renovation project.

Kwong Chi Ho.
"Architecture Department, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master of Architecture Programme 2001-2002, design report."
INTRODUCTION
SYNOPSIS --- p.5
DESIGN THINKING --- p.6
STRATEGIES --- p.8
PROJECT
MISSION STATEMENT --- p.10
SITE STUDY --- p.12
CONSTRUCTION IDEA --- p.16
ARCHITECTURAL OPPORTUNITIES --- p.18
PROGRAM REQUIREMENT --- p.20
TRANSFORMATION PROCESS --- p.21
FINAL DESIGN --- p.28
RESEARCH
RESEARCH BRIEF --- p.34
RESEARCH STRUCTURE --- p.36
CONSTRAINT RESEARCH --- p.38
TRANSFORMATION RESEARCH --- p.44
APPENDIX --- p.50

It has been less than a decade that Building Information Modeling (BIM) has been used in construction industries. During this short period of time the application of this new modeling approach has increased significantly, but still the main users of such models are architects (for design purposes) and general contractors (for coordination purposes). Most of the BIM applications are developed to meet design and coordination requirements; yet sub-contractors face hassles when using this new technology to model their products, equipment and services in detail. The literature reveals that one of the reasons is they do not have access to the tools and objects they need to model their work within the BIM environment. Temporary structures, such as shoring systems and formworks, are good examples. Although these structures play a significant role in the logistics of the jobsite, there are neither a special tools nor predefined objects in BIM applications to help model these elements. In this case study a real building project has been used to model these temporary structures by two different methods: 1. Using ordinary tools in BIM application (Revit), and, 2. Using predefined parametric families of objects developed and customized for this project. During the modeling process, time has been recorded as well as other observations describing obstacles, advantages, and disadvantages of both methods. The results show that the usage of predefined parametric families speeds up the process of modeling and also helps to create a model which is more understandable and informative than 2D drawings that are currently being used by most of the sub contractors.

The Calgary stroet-levcl Arcade preceded the Mall as a place of public exchange: During the first half of its history the covered arcade acted as a buffer between the public street and private interior. The arcade extended me.vitality of the city street to the pedestrian. It was shelter from bad weather and vehicles, and a window into another world of consumable items. A shopper could peruse the 'just out of reach' at the Hudson's Bay or wait for a street car under the measured punctuation of the covered arcade. The public nature of the arcade reconciled.the individual to the group. It mediated the transition from the busy street'.to the beckoning shop window. Today merchandising strategies promise to develop a more efficient circle between shopper and commodity. Mall spaces are connected above ground with a maze of raised public walkways. Crisscrossing the original grid of streets at a height of 4.5 meters is the raised "Plus 15 System." Over the last twenty-five years, Calgary has extended one of the largest semi-private systems in the world through it's downtown core. This system replaces the public street with an interior analogy that is neither public nor private. Ground level street-life suffers a slow but definite decline and is not replaced. As the city experiences a period of extreme growth the opportunity arises to remedy the decline of the public realm In the process of development and gentrification a temporary set of urban artifacts becomes visible. The building crane, the site trailer, construction hoarding - this language of urban expansion is as tenable as the "architecture'' of the city itself. This thesis project will invigorate boomtown city growth with a new public architecture. The site is the back lane between 8th and 9th Avenues and Centre and 1st Street in the heart of downtown Calgary. This is one of many blocks yet to complete the Plus 15 labyrinth of public access-ways. Mid-block pedestrian bridges connect the south and east sides of the site with the rest of the city's Plus 15 system. Low-level heritage buildings and Stephen Avenue pedestrian mall wall the north side of the site while the giant Pan Canadian Building dominates the south. Running through the Pan Canadian Building is an existing public right of way. Using current development as a spring board this project will suture the internal world of the Plus 15 to adjacent public and private fragments of the city. A steel "Frame" will accompany the current developer scheme for a hotel high-rise on the site. This frame reconciles the horizontal dimension of the original property width of Stephen Avenue Mall and the new vertical layering of the "floorplate skyscraper." Inserted into this ordered web is a temporary housing system of pre-built trailer boxes - - an appropriation of the familiar objects of construction: The ATCO trailer, construction hoarding and a "take-apart" kit of frame components provide a fertile base for the growth of the public "tube". They furnish a temporary architecture while the new public walkway asserts its presence.

Accurate and frequent construction progress tracking provides critical input data for project systems such as cost and schedule control as well as billing. Unfortunately, conventional progress tracking is labor intensive, sometimes subject to negotiation, and often driven by arcane rules. Attempts to improve progress tracking have recently focused mainly on automation, using technologies such as 3D imaging, Global Positioning System (GPS), Ultra Wide Band (UWB) indoor locating, hand-held computers, voice recognition, wireless networks, and other technologies in various combinations. Three dimensional (3D) imaging technologies, such as 3D laser scanners (LADARs) and photogrammetry have shown great potential for saving time and cost for recording project 3D status and thus to support some categories of progress tracking. Although laser scanners in particular and 3D imaging in general are being investigated and used in multiple applications in the construction industry, their full potential has not yet been achieved. The reason may be that commercial software packages are still too complicated and time consuming for processing scanned data. Methods have however been developed for the automated, efficient and effective recognition of project 3D BIM objects in site laser scans. This thesis presents a novel system that combines 3D object recognition technology with schedule information into a combined 4D object based construction progress tracking system. The performance of the system is investigated on a comprehensive field database acquired during the construction of a steel reinforced concrete structure, Engineering V Building at the University of Waterloo. It demonstrates a degree of accuracy that meets or exceeds typical manual performance. However, the earned value tracking is the most commonly used method in the industry. That is why the object based automated progress tracking system is further explored, and combined with earned value theory into an earned value based automated progress tracking system. Nevertheless, both of these systems are focused on permanent structure objects only, not secondary or temporary. In the last part of the thesis, several approaches are proposed for concrete construction secondary and temporary object tracking. It is concluded that accurate tracking of structural building project progress is possible by combining a-priori 4D project models with 3D object recognition using the algorithms developed and presented in this thesis.

Crisis management after natural and non-natural disasters is a matter of serious concern for governments. Every year, due to catastrophes worldwide, millions of people have to be accommodated in temporary housing. In the USA alone, such disasters happen over 60 times per year. Rapid assembly building therefore, play a key role in post disaster housing projects. There are several types of rapidly assembled structures. Among them, the use of panelised systems, especially lightweight foam filled sandwich panels, is becoming very popular, because of their improved efficiency, good performance and their ability to reduce construction time and cost. A vast majority of the recent studies in the literature on the performance of structural panels are mainly focused on the panels made by rigid formwork. The structural application of the flexible formwork systems and their capabilities and potentials for rapid assembly building in crises management has not been adequately studies in the literature. In fact, a large portion of the recent research studies regarding the application of the flexible formwork is mainly limited to the architectural concepts. There is a significant gap in the knowledge of application of light weight sandwich panels, and application of flexible formwork systems for rapid assembly housing for crises management. This research study aims to introduce a novel foam-filled structural panelised system by pneumatic fabric formwork for rapid assembly building and study its structural performance and constructional considerations.

AbstractIn a cooperative robotic fabrication (CRF) framework, multiple industrial robots are specifically sequenced to work together, thus allowing them to execute coordinated processes with greater geometric and structural variation. In the context of the construction industry, agents in a cooperative setup can perform complementary functions such as placing or removing building components while simultaneously providing temporary support to a structure. This approach can reduce, or completely remove, the need for temporary external supports and scaffolding that would typically be required for stability during the construction of geometrically complex spanning spatial structures. For a circular economy, this means overall reductions to primary resource inputs and improvements to the disassembly, reuse, and reassembly potential of a structure at the end of its life. This chapter gives a summary of three projects that successfully demonstrate the use of cooperative robotic fabrication to promote several principles of a circular economy through different scaffold-free construction applications. The topics covered in this chapter will be of interest to researchers and professionals interested in the emergent intersection of digital fabrication, robotics, and sustainability applied to the building industry.

AbstractBy considering the interactions of two creative groups in temporary organizations during two media projects the author proposes a model illustrating how they repeatedly change formation so that individuals can manage job interdependencies and new issues arising while developing, building up, and synthesizing new ideas into a final creative solution. This theory on creative group dynamic coordination builds theory on how and why creative groups coordinate, challenges assumptions about the role of formal structures and informal practices by demonstrating how the two dynamically interact and complement each other to facilitate coordination via the emergence of what one would expect to be “un-coordinated methods”, and provides an alternative perspective to the stages the groups have to go through by emphasizing a cyclical and not a linear team developmental process.

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is changing the way architects and engineers produce and deliver design results, and object-oriented 3D models are now starting to replace traditional 2D drawings during the construction phase. This allows for a number of applications to increase efficiency, such as quantity take-off, cost-estimation, and planning, but it also supports better communication and increased understanding at the construction site by means of detailed 3D models together with various visualization techniques. However, even in projects with a fully BIM-based design, there is one remaining part that is still done primarily using 2D drawings and sketches – the construction site layout plan. In addition to not take advantage of the benefits offered by 3D, it also makes it difficult to integrate site layout planning within the openBIM ecosystem. In this paper we present the design and evaluation of a user-friendly, IFC-compatible software system that supports collaborative, multi-user creation of construction site layout plans using both multi-touch table and immersive VR. By allowing temporary structures, machines, and other components to be easily added and updated it is possible to continuously produce and communicate 3D site layout plans that are aligned with the schedule and supports integration with other BIM-tools

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is changing the way architects and engineers produce and deliver design results, and object-oriented 3D models are now starting to replace traditional 2D drawings during the construction phase. This allows for a number of applications to increase efficiency, such as quantity take-off, cost-estimation, and planning, but it also supports better communication and increased understanding at the construction site by means of detailed 3D models together with various visualization techniques. However, even in projects with a fully BIM-based design, there is one remaining part that is still done primarily using 2D drawings and sketches – the construction site layout plan. In addition to not take advantage of the benefits offered by 3D, it also makes it difficult to integrate site layout planning within the openBIM ecosystem. In this paper we present the design and evaluation of a user-friendly, IFC-compatible software system that supports collaborative, multi-user creation of construction site layout plans using both multi-touch table and immersive VR. By allowing temporary structures, machines, and other components to be easily added and updated it is possible to continuously produce and communicate 3D site layout plans that are aligned with the schedule and supports integration with other BIM-tools

AbstractHow should we analyse experiences as societal phenomena? This chapter develops a historical-theoretical approach by building on the social theory of Peter L. Berger and Thomas Luckmann with Reinhart Koselleck’s temporal structures of experiencing. We first theorize how experiences are socially constructed and how experiences themselves construct the historically changing social reality. Second, we introduce analytic tools for approaching experiences in socio-historical research. The chapter conceptualizes the temporal and spatial structures of experience as layers of experience and scenes of experience, and indicates how they can be traced by exploring the sediments—shared meanings of experience—that are stored in different sign systems in a given historical context.

AbstractVision Zero is a term mainly connected with road traffic safety and has its roots in the Swedish road safety strategy. It was formally adopted by the Swedish parliament in 1997, and due to the initial success of lowering the number of deaths in traffic crashes significantly, it has become a role model for road safety strategies in countries and cities all over the world. In Sweden, Vision Zero for road safety has also inspired the introduction of Vision Zero policies in other sectors, and this chapter focuses on Vision Zero from a multi-sectoral perspective. The purpose of this chapter is twofold: to present five different cases of Vision Zero policies and to discuss what constitutes a Vision Zero policy based on these five cases. The five cases are found in road traffic safety, fire safety, patient safety, suicide, and workplace safety. Every case has its unique preconditions in terms of laws, actors, scope, etc., but they are also similar in relation to injury prevention and the ambition to decrease the number of deaths and serious injuries. The five Vision Zero policies are summarized by presenting the problem and problem framing, the goal, measures, and solutions as well as leading actors and governing structures. We find that the problem itself is quite self-explanatory in each case but that the problem framing and attribution of responsibility differ. All cases have on paper been inspired by the road safety strategies, but the systems approach, so intimately connected with Vision Zero, is more or less absent in the cases of fire safety and suicide. Furthermore, in the field of fire safety, responsibility is placed on the individual and on the business sector rather than based on a shared responsibility and ultimately on the system designers. In all five cases, there are a set of measures in place, but there are differences in implementation due to temporal factors and also what kind of governing and steering structures are in place. There is also a difference in internal support where the Vision Zero for suicide stands out as having less support among agencies working with the issue. Finally, the monitoring systems differ from case to case. The Vision Zero for road traffic safety stands out as having a monitoring and evaluating system based on specific safety targets ultimately aiming toward zero (management by objectives). Based on the empirical findings, we argue that besides having a clear problem and problem framing, a toolbox of measures, a monitoring system, and a governing structure, a policy based on a visionary approach with an ambition to reach zero needs additional perspectives or criteria in order to be successful: (1) a scientific approach to problem framing and solutions, (2) a comprehensive approach, (3) a long-term commitment, and (4) a system and structure based on governance. These criteria do not necessarily have to be in place in order to adopt Vision Zero, but they are a prerequisite for building a system based on Vision Zero.

AbstractVision Zero is a term mainly connected with road traffic safety and has its roots in the Swedish road safety strategy. It was formally adopted by the Swedish parliament in 1997, and due to the initial success of lowering the number of deaths in traffic crashes significantly, it has become a role model for road safety strategies in countries and cities all over the world. In Sweden, Vision Zero for road safety has also inspired the introduction of Vision Zero policies in other sectors, and this chapter focuses on Vision Zero from a multi-sectoral perspective. The purpose of this chapter is twofold: to present five different cases of Vision Zero policies and to discuss what constitutes a Vision Zero policy based on these five cases. The five cases are found in road traffic safety, fire safety, patient safety, suicide, and workplace safety. Every case has its unique preconditions in terms of laws, actors, scope, etc., but they are also similar in relation to injury prevention and the ambition to decrease the number of deaths and serious injuries. The five Vision Zero policies are summarized by presenting the problem and problem framing, the goal, measures, and solutions as well as leading actors and governing structures. We find that the problem itself is quite self-explanatory in each case but that the problem framing and attribution of responsibility differ. All cases have on paper been inspired by the road safety strategies, but the systems approach, so intimately connected with Vision Zero, is more or less absent in the cases of fire safety and suicide. Furthermore, in the field of fire safety, responsibility is placed on the individual and on the business sector rather than based on a shared responsibility and ultimately on the system designers. In all five cases, there are a set of measures in place, but there are differences in implementation due to temporal factors and also what kind of governing and steering structures are in place. There is also a difference in internal support where the Vision Zero for suicide stands out as having less support among agencies working with the issue. Finally, the monitoring systems differ from case to case. The Vision Zero for road traffic safety stands out as having a monitoring and evaluating system based on specific safety targets ultimately aiming toward zero (management by objectives). Based on the empirical findings, we argue that besides having a clear problem and problem framing, a toolbox of measures, a monitoring system, and a governing structure, a policy based on a visionary approach with an ambition to reach zero needs additional perspectives or criteria in order to be successful: (1) a scientific approach to problem framing and solutions, (2) a comprehensive approach, (3) a long-term commitment, and (4) a system and structure based on governance. These criteria do not necessarily have to be in place in order to adopt Vision Zero, but they are a prerequisite for building a system based on Vision Zero.

The combination of anchor-pile static-pressure pile and soil excavation correction has been widely used in modern building settlement correction projects due to its significant effect and good economy. Its working principle is to use the anchor-pile static-pressure pile method to effectively reinforce the building foundation. After the pile pressing is completed, a pressure-locked temporary pile is placed on the side with larger settlement to achieve rapid settlement prevention. Then, the soil excavation correction is carried out on the side with smaller settlement of the building by reducing the contact area between the original friction pile at the bottom of the foundation and the soil, reducing the bearing capacity of the foundation, and accelerating the settlement of the side with smaller settlement, thus achieving the correction effect. This paper introduces the case of settlement correction and reinforcement of residential buildings in a certain community in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province. By sorting out the settlement and tilt observation data provided by third-party testing units, the original geological survey report and supplementary survey report, and the original building structural drawings and other materials, the reasons for the building’s settlement exceeding the standard limit and uneven settlement are analyzed. The selection of the correction and reinforcement scheme, specific parameter values, construction sequence, dynamic monitoring during the correction process, the actual layout of the anchor-pile static-pressure pile, the arrangement of soil excavation holes, the settlement rate and tilt of the building after settlement correction, can provide some reference and engineering experience for similar projects.

Aim of the article: to create a prototype of an information system of an optimized site plan using virtual reality technology (VRT). The article consists of two parts. The first part: the review of the literary sources used; a comparative analysis of the existing models of the construction site plans. Second part: the description of the prototype development of the information system (the algorithm) using building information modeling (BIM), and VRT.

<p>In order to control the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic across the country, China has used all available resources to build infectious disease hospitals in various ways. These hospitals include three modes and adapt to different disease levels: temporary emergency hospitals; makeshift hospitals by transforming public buildings; and existing general wards transformed into infectious wards. Through the practice of several projects, on the basis of the original standard system, China urgently issued a series of relevant standards and guidelines to guide the construction of temporary hospitals. As one of the earliest cases of temporary emergency infectious disease hospital, the Thunder God Mountain Hospital adopted a prefabricated modular design concept in plan design, plane design and component design, and also combined the application of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technology. Based on industrialized module processing and manufacturing, combined with an efficient on-site construction management system, the problem was solved of completing the construction in a very short time, which played a key role in controlling the epidemic situation.</p>

Several events, fairs and exhibitions take place annually, both national and international. For these events to take place, it is necessary to plan and prepare the infrastructure for the public. Thus,cardboard can represent a possibility of constructive material for use in events and fairs. The objective of this work is to propose the use of cardboard tubes for the construction of the structure and kiosks used to hold a fair in the city of Limeira, São Paulo, aiming at sustainability and environmental awareness of the visiting public. Methodologically, a study was made of some traditional events that take place in the city, and then the structure and kiosks were designed using AutoCAD and SketchUp. As a result, there is a detailed design of the structures and kiosks used in the vegan fair. This study allows concluding that cardboard tubes can compose different constructions in engineering and architecture with satisfactory durability and resistance.

<p>Emergencies like post hurricane or earthquake need of buildings quick and easy to build. These buildings have to be great open spaces in order to host as many people as possible. These buildings can be non-temporary because they are useful for one, two years or more. For this reason, they have to be designed like permanent buildings. This exclude a great number of typologies as for example inflatable structures. The typology suggested is cables net and membrane roofs with hyperbolic paraboloid shape. These typology permits to cover very large span and it is built easily and quickly. In order to encourage a sustainability approach to build, the paper promotes recent developments in the field of material engineering that have allowed for the use of natural materials for common structural elements instead of traditional materials such as steel or concrete. In this context, hemp is a very interesting material for structural building design. This paper proposes the use of hemp cables for roofs with hyperbolic paraboloid cables nets, which sees the use of a sustainability material for structure thus having a very low environmental impact in terms of structural weight. The paper discusses five different plan sizes and two different hyperbolic paraboloid surface radius of curvatures. The cable traction, which gives the cable net stiffness, was varied in order to give a parametric database of structural response. Three-dimensional geometrically nonlinear element analyses were carried out on different geometries and a parametrization of the borders structures of anchorage is given.</p>

<p>All sorts of bridges have been built by humans ever since they have decided to cross an obstacle on their way. Historically, various materials have been used as tension structural members carrying most, if not all, loads in all sorts of bridge-like structures for thousands of years, i.e. rope walkways in Chinese mountains. All sorts of hemp (and other natural fibers) ropes were utilized for smaller temporary structures, and in the sail ship industry, of course. Later, in mid centuries iron chains have been used to carry heavy loads of bridges and draw platforms.</p><p>In XIX century, one of the pioneers in light bridge structures was Eng. John Roebling, who introduced new materials and new technologies, which revolutionized the way bridges are constructed. Wire rope, cables and other high-tension structural members have evolved since those times, and new tensile materials have been invented to build bridges and other structures. Also, the advancement of engineering methods provides the scientific justification over the empirical believes for the advantage of tensile technology over traditional, gravity defying structural solutions. This paper will demonstrate new achievements in the development of tensile structural members and building methods.</p>

Continuous review, adaptation and improvement through upkeep and maintenance periods has enabled the Royal Navy submarine fleet to remain fit for purpose through successive life extension programmes. Devonport Royal Dockyard, Plymouth, provides nuclear submarine dry dock facilities for maintenance. The Site Licences which authorise operations of these nuclear facilities are administered by the Office for Nuclear Regulation which ensures that the intent of the facility nuclear safety case is maintained throughout all operations. As such, any dock modifications and refit support equipment or structures must be designed within the framework of the safety case. A requirement to undertake refit activities external to the hull of a nuclear submarine while in dock resulted in a design and build project for a temporary dock-bottom building to provide a safe and capable environment. The design of this building’s structure and sub-systems was heavily influenced by the nuclear safety case. This paper explores the challenges of designing equipment within the constraints of the nuclear licensed site, identifies the provenance and the requirements of the nuclear safety case of a dry dock nuclear facility, and examines the influence of this safety case upon requirements management, and the design lifecycle. The design of the dock-bottom building is presented, including an outline of the technical challenges which arose, and some of the novel solutions developed, including; a modular, seismically- qualified, primary structure; and a modified crane incorporating a crushable element. The paper explores the issues of finite element analysis of the primary structure to substantiate performance and satisfy the safety case. The paper also presents a discussion of the influence and impact of the safety case upon the building design project.

Deployable structures have many applications in architecture, from kinetic pavilions to temporary structures, to retractable rooftops. There are various advantages to building deployable elements in a factory, and then deploying them on site. It is simpler to join stripes in flat arrangements than to put them together in three dimensions. This study focuses on a novel approach for creating and simulating systems of elastic stripes and how they can be utilized to build 3d-surfaces. The goal is to find the correct 2D stripes geometry that when deployed corresponds to a given 3D designed surface. Deployment simulation is essential to the design phase, and it is believes that by designing, simulating, and re-using data from already tested physical models, kinetic design methodological framework would naturally transition from a Design-Fabrication-Simulation workflow into a Design-Simulation-Fabrication one. (Raviv et al. 2014). In order to find the stripes deployment and its proximity to the final 3d surface, three experiments are examined ere: Starting from a simple case, in order to get a negative Gaussian curvature (Figure 1, Top) and observe the transformation and distortion of the flat faces, a hexagonal flat model has been vertically extruded and anchored in two points. Then, investigating further deploying techniques for negative curvature surfaces, a 2D linear set of equal stripes is deployed evenly by adding a locker stripe on its ends (Figure 2, Bottom). From the prototype and the simulation deployment the distortion produced a negative Gaussian curvature. A more complex example of curved stripes, using a locker stripe at the start and connecting between them, a group of four curved deployable stripes were distorted and joined to create four arches while maintaining their opening state (Figure 3, Right). The same distortion was seen in both the arches simulation and the prototype.

Paper recycling is an effective way in reducing deforestation and energy consumption. Therefore recycling paper and paper products has been widely applied in many areas, such as packaging industry, furniture decoration, temporary structures in building and so on. Paper products are made from plant fibers and they are laminated materials. So it is of possible to generate interlaminar fracture in the use of paper products, especially in the construction made of paper such as paper tubes which have been used widely. In order to improve the interlaminar performance of paper products and then improve the construction performance of paper products, delamination behavior of laminated paper has been studied in this paper. By a series of peel tests, comparative analysis about different paperboard were carried out. The cause of delamination behavior of laminated paper was analysis based on the detailed observation using a scanning electron microscope (SEM).

Reinforced concrete structural slurry walls have been used in the United States since the early 1960s. The typical practice, and one that makes the economics of slurry walls particularly attractive, is to design the walls to act as both temporary excavation support and permanent basement walls. They often serve as multi-story basements and below grade parking for buildings, for tunnels, subway stations, and other buried structures. One of the early applications was for a foundation for a subway station in San Francisco, but for the most part they have been used more extensively in regions of low seismicity. The purpose of this report is to investigate the requirements for extension of this practice to more common use in regions of high seismicity. Structural slurry walls are concrete walls constructed below the ground surface. In slurry wall construction, a trench is excavated using a rectangular clamshell bucket or other specialized equipment. During excavation, the trench is held open by introduction of a bentonite or polymer slurry. Steel reinforcement, if required, is lowered into the slurry-filled trench, and concrete is subsequently deposited by tremie, displacing the slurry. The length of trench open at any one time is limited to a typical maximum of about 20 to 24 feet by excavation stability and concrete placement volume considerations. Each individual concrete placement is referred to as a “panel,” and vertical construction joints separate the panels. Temporary “end-stops” are used as formwork to control the geometry of the panel joints, and horizontal reinforcement is discontinuous at the joints. Structural slurry panels range from 1.5 to 5.0 feet thick, 7 to 24 feet long, and up to 300 feet deep. In the United States, panels that are 2.0 to 3.5 feet thick and depths of 40 to 150 feet are commonplace. Structural basement walls support earth pressures acting laterally against the wall, dead and live loads acting vertically, and in-plane shear and flexure from wind and earthquake loads. The design of permanent slurry walls in regions of low or moderate seismicity is often limited to providing the strength necessary to resist out-of-plane soil pressures and vertical dead and live loads from the superstructure and basement framing. Although these walls also transfer in-plane lateral forces from the superstructure into the soils, the walls are often not specifically designed for these in-plane forces because their inherent strength is usually much greater than the forces being transferred. If resistance to in-plane forces acting on a wall required an increase in vertical reinforcement at the ends of a wall segment, an increase in the cap beam strength, or an increase in the horizontal reinforcement for shear strength, the overall design and construction approach would not vary significantly from current practice. Structural slurry walls have been used to a limited extent for buildings designed for high seismic risk, but there is reluctance on the part of design engineers to use them more often because of concern for how to design these walls to resist in-plane lateral forces, lack of code provisions for reinforcement detailing, and damage that may occur at panel joints. For buildings designed for high seismic risk, such as those assigned to Seismic Design Categories (SDC) D, E, and F as defined in Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE/SEI 7-10), in-plane shear and flexural actions may likely require modifications of a structural slurry wall only designed for out-of-plane soil pressures and vertical live and dead loads. Design would need to address in-plane lateral forces acting on structural slurry walls and the interaction of the in-plane actions with the out-of-plane and vertical actions. These issues are discussed in this report, and approaches to design for high seismic risk are presented.

The dual nature of water as a finite resource and as a basic human right creates a tension that presents important implications for water pricing. Water tariffs are a key tool used by policymakers to create incentive structures that promote efficient use; at the same time, they can create barriers to access and ignore waters socio-cultural value if not calibrated properly. This conflict between pricing as to reduce over-consumption and to guarantee accessibility exposes the difficulty of optimizing residential water pricing, and the importance of progressive tariff structures in building more resilient communities.Water policymakers view tariffs as an instrument to balance various objectives, such as efficiency, equity, cost recovery, and environmental preservation. However, these competing objectives mean that effective water tariff structures must be acutely customized to local contexts, a reality that is especially pertinent to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to its geographic and temporal heterogeneity in terms of water availability and demand. Prices can also be influenced by other factors. Four primary factor categories were identified as influential to water prices based on a comprehensive review of the price determination literature: (1) environmental factors, (2) urban factors, (3) political and ideological factors, and (4) management and institutional factors. The present brief examines how these factors theoretically impact pricing and what their status is throughout LAC, with the ultimate goal of providing a framework for future research.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.