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Leth, Anton, and Jakob Vikström. "INVESTMENT ADVICE FROM INSIDERS : The impact of Insider Trading on Long-Term IPO Stock Performance in Sweden." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-172642.
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This thesis analyzes and evaluates the relationship between insider trading and the long-term stock performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPO) in Sweden. The study looks at firms that recently conducted an IPO and how the stock performance of the firm is impacted by insiders making transactions in their own stock. An IPO is known to generate high returns on its first day on the public stock market, but to underperform the market in the long term. The characteristics of an IPO are deviant from the rest of the stock market, and with less information available to the public compared to other firms, the IPO market is hard to navigate for investors. Transactions made by insiders in the share of their own company is usually seen as guidance in public companies. An insider purchase is usually followed by a positive stock return, and insiders selling shares have the opposite impact. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if the information provided by insider transactions can be used to create a potential trading strategy for IPOs. Through statistical analysis, a negative relationship is found between the insider trading and IPO long-term stock performance, indicating that insider buying shares are connected to lesser stock performance. This contradicts previous research regarding insider trading in seasoned firms and opens up for discussion. By implementing a theoretical framework, a deeper analysis of the proposed relationship is be made. This study concludes that the negative relationship between insider trading and long-term IPO stock performance is not directly caused by insider trading itself. Instead, it is a result of insiders making poor investment decisions due to outside pressure and behavioral factors.
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Hasani, Hyrije. "Påverkar det ekonomiska läget noteringarnas aktiekursutveckling? : En kvantitativ studie av noterade bolag på NASDAQ OMX Stockholm 2000-2010." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för ekonomi och företagande, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-5820.
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Inledning: Inom finansmarknaden där en handelsplats för värdepapper finns är IPO ett omtalat ämne. Fascinationen ligger vid introduktionen av ett företag på börsen som tidigare varit privatägd och dess avkastning på aktien. Vidare är prissättningen på aktierna och timingen för en notering intressanta aspekter som har studerats sedan många år tillbaka. I denna uppsats ska det undersökas hur aktiepriserna för de noterade bolag har utvecklats vid olika ekonomiska tillväxter. Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka om det ekonomiska läget påverkar aktiekursernas utfall vid en notering samt hur dessa utvecklas på noteringsdagen och 30 dagar efter noteringen. Metod: Genom beräkningar av introduktionspriserna i jämförelse med stängningskurserna på noteringsdagen och 30 dagar efter noteringen får man fram aktiekursernas utveckling. Teoretisk referensram: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen och signalteorin Resultat: Undersökningens resultat visade på att skillnaden i aktiernas avkastning mellan företag som noterat sig under en hög respektive låg ekonomisk tillväxt var mycket liten. Företagen som hade noterat sig under en hög ekonomisk tillväxt hade endast 0,1 % högre avkastning än de företag som noterade sig under en låg ekonomisk tillväxt. Detta tyder på att det ekonomiska läget inte påverkar noteringar avsevärt.Introduction: Within the financial market where there is a trading place for securities, IPO is a well discussed topic. The fascination lies on the introduction of a company on the stock market that was earlier privately-owned and its return on the share. Furthermore the pricing of the shares and the timing for listings are interesting aspects that have been studied many years back. Hence, this essay will examine how the share prices for the listing companies have developed through different economic growth. Purpose: The purpose is to examine if the economic situation affects the share prices outcome during a listing and moreover, to see how they have developed on the listing day and 30 days after the listing. Method: By comparing the calculations of the introduction prices to the closing prices on the listing day and 30 days after the listing, this essay will examine the share prices development that occurs. Theoretical framework: The efficient market hypothesis and the signaling theory. Results: The results of the examination showed that the difference between companies is very small, regardless of the economic growth at the time they got listed. Companies that got listed during a higher economic growth had only a 0.1 % higher return than companies that got listed during a lower economic growth, which suggests that the economic situation does not affect the listings significantly.
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Sapthawisukphon, Alexis, and Haidar Darab. "Insynshandel – där abnorm avkastning är abrupt! : En studie om den lagliga insynshandeln på företagen listade på First North." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34357.
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Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate whether executives can earn abnormal return by purchasing their own stocks and establish an understanding of possible aspects. Method: In order to observe if abnormal return exists on insider buy-transactions, a method triangulation with deductive approach has been made. An event study has been adopted to measure the transaction events. In addition, CAAR has been calculated with aid of a model. These values go through a significance test in order to support the hypothesis. Theory: The study is grounded on the efficient market hypothesis, information asymmetry, behavioural finance and signalling. Furthermore, previous research has been adopted to support the study. Conclusion: The results of the study show that executives for growth companies can profit from abnormal returns.Syfte: Syftet med studien är att studera om personer i ledande ställning profiterar vid insynsförvärv av aktier samt skapa en djupare förståelse kring möjliga underliggande faktorer. Metod: För att studera om det uppstår abnorm avkastning vid insynsförvärv har en metodtriangulering med deduktiv ansats behandlats. Eventstudie har använts för att mäta transaktions händelserna. Vidare beräknas CAAR med hjälp av en modell. Dessa kommer sedan att signifikanstestas för att stödja hypoteserna. Teori: Teorier som behandlas i denna studie är den effektiva marknadshypotesen, informationsasymmetrin, beteendebaserad finansiering och signaleringshypotesen. Vidare behandlas tidigare forskningar som ger stöd till studien. Slutsats: Resultaten för studien påvisar att personer i ledande ställning för tillväxtföretag kan profitera på abnorm avkastning.
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Alexakis, Christos. "An empirical investigation of the efficient market hypothesis : the case of the Athens stock market." Thesis, University of York, 1992. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/2488/.
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Monte, Brent M. "Chaos and the stock market." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 1994. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/860.
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Ljungberg, Axel, and Anton Högstedt. "Modern Portfolio Theory Combined With Magic Formula : A study on how Modern Portfolio Theory can improve an established investment strategy." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-104540.
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This study examines whether modern portfolio theory can be used to improve the Magic Formula investment strategy. With the assets picked by the investment strategy we modify the portfolios by weighting the portfolios in accordance with modern portfolio theory. Through the process of creating efficient frontiers and weighting the portfolios differently we create two alternative portfolios each year. One portfolio that aimsfor maximum Sharpe ratio and one that aims for minimum variance. These weighted portfolios produce higher risk-adjusted returns consistently during the examined period of 2010-2020. We conclude that the Magic Formula can be improved by using modern portfolio theory.
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Renberg, Sandra, and Cecilia Nylander. "The Relationship between Changes in Cash Dividends and Volatility of Stock Returns : A study of the Swedish Stock Market." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-76434.
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The dividend policy and the distribution of cash dividend can be of interest to the investors from many angles. Consequently, many theories have been built on the relevance of dividend policy and there are several theories proposing that dividends increase shareholder value. However, the most famous theory on dividend policy might be Miller and Modigliani's dividend irrelevance theory which implies that the dividend policy does not affect shareholder value. Although investors are concerned with shareholder value they are also concerned with achieving the highest possible return with the lowest volatility (risk). As many studies have focused on the dividend policy, especially dividend yield or the dividend payout ratio, and its relation with stock price movement we felt that there was a lack of information regarding the relation between return volatility and cash dividends. This resulted in the following research question: Does a change in cash dividend affect stock return volatility on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm? Answering this research question is the main purpose of the research. Additionally, the relationship between changes in cash dividend and return volatility will be compared in the different size segments that are to be found on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. The study is quantitative with a deductive approach where historical data ranging from 2006-2012 has been gathered. Two measures of return volatility has been used, beta and standard deviation of return. Statistical tests have been conducted in an approach to answer the research question, mainly correlation tests and logistic regression analysis. No correlation between changes in cash dividend and changes in beta, nor changes in standard deviation were found. The same results were found when examining small, mid and large cap individually. In the logistic regression analysis no evidence was found that changes in dividend could explain changes in return volatility. Contrary to changes in dividend, the results indicate that the size of the company can explain changes in return volatility. Specifically, large cap companies explain increases in return volatility better than companies in the small cap segment. Therefore, the research question is concluded with no, a change in cash dividend does not affect stock return volatility. The findings could also be argued to be in support of the dividend irrelevance theory. Furthermore, the conclusion implies that investors need not regard the dividend policy when diversifying their portfolios. Additionally, managers need not be worried that a change in dividend policy should affect return volatility.
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Gleisner, Mattias, and Karoline Edström. "Bitcoin som diversifiering : En kvantitativ studie som undersöker korrelationen mellan bitcoin och finansiella tillgångar." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-137433.
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Pengar har under en lång tid spelat en central roll i människans samhälle och dagens samhälle präglas av allt mer handel. Utifrån detta har nya betalningsmetoder utvecklats. En förändring i konsumentbeteendet har bidragit till att allt fler individer väljer elektroniska betalningstjänster. En relativt ny innovation är kryptovalutan bitcoin som erbjuder betalning mellan köpare och säljare utan inblandning av en tredje part. Ett flertal studier har gjorts med syftet att fastställa om bitcoin är en valuta eller en tillgång, något som visat sig vara svårt. Något som varit tydligare är att bitcoins värdeförändringar inte tycks vara korrelerad med andra investeringsalternativ. I en studie av Brière et al. (2015) drogs slutsatsen att bitcoin är en intressant tillgång för en investerare tack vare bitcoins låga korrelationskoefficient med andra tillgångar. Denna studie grundar sig i de teoretiska utgångspunkterna om Famas (1970) hypotes om den effektiva marknaden, Markowitz (1952) moderna portföljteori och Rogers (2003) teori om spridning av innovationer. Med detta som utgångspunkt är syftet med denna studie att undersöka hur korrelationskoefficienten mellan bitcoin och traditionella investeringstillgångar som aktier, valutor och råvaror ser ut idag samt hur dessa har förändrats över tid. Med hjälp av Famas (1970) teori om effektiva marknader och Rogers (2003) teori om spridning av innovationer kommer en diskussion om huruvida bitcoins egenskaper som investering i den moderna portföljen har förändrats i takt med att bitcoin blivit mer använd, både som betalningsmedel och investeringsalternativ. För att besvara dessa frågor undersöks korrelationskoefficienterna mellan bitcoin och elva andra tillgångar i kombination med en analys av en deskriptiv statistik. Med en undersökningsperiod som sträcker sig från 18 augusti 2011 till 17 mars 2017. Denna period har även delats upp i mindre tidsperioder för att utifrån detta analysera om det skett några förändringar i korrelationen mellan bitcoin och de traditionella tillgångarna i studien. Resultatet visade att bitcoin inte är korrelerad med andra traditionella tillgångar, oavsett vilken tidsperiod som undersöks. Det visade sig att bitcoin i förhållande till andra tillgångar är en riskfylld investering på grund av bland annat en hög volatilitet. Dock kompenseras detta av bitcoins höga årlig avkastning. Av resultatet framgår det även att volatiliteten för bitcoin har minskat med tiden och att kryptovalutan inte är lika riskfylld idag jämfört med tidigare.
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Karlsson, Viktor, and Emil Nygren. "Beating the Swedish Market : A dynamic approach to Value Investing using Modern Portfolio Theory." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för ekonomi och företagande, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-16465.
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Previous research has confirmed the existence of a value premium in a wide array of markets and using this value stock anomaly has yielded superior performance. This thesis investigates if one could take advantage of the existence of a value premium to deploy a dynamic investment strategy on the Swedish stock market (OMXS30) with focus on minimizing risk to achieve higher risk adjusted performance than the stock market index. The investment strategy implemented use Market-to-Book-Value to screen for both entry and exit signals and Modern Portfolio Theory, using the minimum-variance portfolio with short-selling constraints, to allocate assets within the portfolio. The investment strategy is evaluated using the Modigliani-Modigliani Risk Adjusted Performance measure. Conclusions from the thesis are that the strategy does outperform the Swedish stock market index, both in terms of nominal return and risk-adjusted performance. The suboptimal behaviour of investors where they overreact to signals and unconsciously rely on heuristics is used to explain why this is possible. Market-to-Book-Value, using the first quartile as entry signal and third quartile as exit signal, is considered to be a successful key ratio to screen for value stocks.
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Saric, Olle, and Pontus Lyngsten. "Investigating Real Earnings Management in the Relationship between Stock Returns and Top Management Stock Ownership." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-184320.
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In this thesis the relationship between company performance and top management stock ownership in the Swedish market was examined. As well as conducting research on the influence real earnings management has on company performance, and how real earnings management relates to the top management stock ownership. The study was based on a quantitative approach with secondary data that was retrieved from Eikon Refinitiv database, where the data stretched back from 2018-2020. This research found no clear relationship between the main concepts under investigation, that is stock ownership of top management and stock returns. The authors explain this by the sampling method in this research only include companies with share holdings. Furthermore, compared to other studies looking this research considers multiple market capitalizations who may operate differently. Finally, there is a suspicion in the field of research that the relationship between the two is not of a linear nature as such a linear methodology will not find any clear results. In conclusion, this research could be added to the list that does not find a relationship between the above stated variables to the literature which could further be applied to the Swedish market. In terms of real earnings management, a strong negative influence was found on share returns. The authors suggest that this finding can be used as a basis to form investment strategies through monitoring the occurrence of REM to predict when insiders are going to buy and sell. Through pursuing this strategy, it may be possible to create superior return as this study found support for the semi-strong form of market efficiency. Unfortunately, this study found no clear guidance of resolving agency issues. Rather it was concluded that shareholdings in the top management does not resolve agency problems given the occurrence of REM. The management most likely benefit from this through trading the company stock. However, further investigation on the topic should be conducted as it seems that alignment using holdings become more or less effective at certain levels of management share ownership. Furthermore, the notion that American ways of agency alignment may not be appropriate in the Swedish market was considered but no clear conclusion could be made in this research.
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Fakhry, Bachar. "Impact of the crises on the efficiency of the financial market : evidence from the SDM." Thesis, University of Bedfordshire, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10547/565811.
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The efficient market hypothesis has been around since 1962, the theory based on a simple rule that states the price of any asset must fully reflect all available information. Yet there is empirical evidence suggesting that markets are too volatile to be efficient. In essence, this evidence seems to suggest that the reaction of the market participants to the information or events that is the crucial factor, rather than the actual information. This highlights the need to include the behavioural finance theory in the pricing of assets. Essentially, the research aims to analyse the efficiency of six key sovereign debt markets during a period of changing volatility including the recent global financial and sovereign debt crises. We analyse the markets in the pre-crisis period and during the financial and sovereign debt crises to determine the impact of the crises on the efficiency of these financial markets. We use two GARCH-based variance bound tests to test the null hypothesis of the market being too volatile to be efficient. Proposing a GJR-GARCH variant of the variance bound test to account for variation in the asymmetrical effect. This leads to an analysis of the changing behaviour of price volatility to identify what makes the market efficient or inefficient. In general, our EMH tests resulted in mixed results, hinting at the acceptance of the null hypothesis of the market being too volatile to be efficient. However, interestingly a number of 2017 observations under both models seem to be hinting at the rejection of the null hypothesis. Furthermore, our proposed GJR-GARCH variant of the variance bound test seems to be more likely to accept the EMH than the GARCH variant of the test.
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Yilmaz, Emre, and Shakir Husain. "Hitting a BRIC Wall : MIST countries becoming the new BRICs?" Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-18374.
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The purpose of this study is to examine a completely new phenomenon called the MIST, by two portfolios: the Goldman Sachs Next 11 equity fund, and the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund, in order to establish whether or not the MIST countries are a better investment decision in terms of risk, return and growth. Furthermore, the study examines in which form these emerging markets lies in terms of market efficiency, and if the random walk theory is present. The opportunities and challenges for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey are also brought upon to determine whether these countries have the potential to exhibit the same success as the BRIC countries did for a decade. Since the growth of the BRIC countries are slowing down, Jim O’Neill, the same founder of the term BRIC, coined the nations MIST. The BRIC countries are facing several difficulties and have led investors to draw out from these countries stocks. Investors that were pouring in money to the BRIC countries during the period 2001-2009, have from 2011, withdrawn 15 billion dollars from the BRIC stocks. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. Derived from the next eleven countries, these countries have a major effect on the global economy due to their economical and political circumstances. For many investors, the MIST countries that are growing faster than the BRIC are regarded to be the new biggest emerging markets. Investing in BRIC funds are stated to be a disaster today, while on the other hand, the MIST countries are growing and outpacing the BRIC fund. The methodology used was to compare two different portfolios, Goldman Sachs N-11 equity fund in the period 2011-2013 against the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund in two different periods, 2011-2013 and 2006-2008 with S&P 500 as the market index. In addition, a hypothesis test was carried out for this period to observe whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. The results of this study shows that the null hypothesis was rejected and that the N-11 equity fund is a better investment decision, in terms of risk, return and growth today. These emerging markets are under the weak form market efficiency and the random walk theory is present in the N-11 equity fund. This makes the authors’ results more of a speculation than a definite conclusion about the future, as one cannot "beat the market".
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Ivansson, Richard, and Janne Viinikka. "Ex - dagseffekt : En studie kring avkastning på ex - dagen för utdelning." Thesis, Södertörn University College, School of Business Studies, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-3743.
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Question:
"Does the market possess perfect information as the efficient market hypothesis says?"
"Is there any significant relationship between the abnormal stock return on the ex – day and the dividend?" Purpose: The purpose of this study is to enlighten and find understanding about stock return versus dividend on the ex – day and try to figure out if abnormal returns occur on the portfolio during dividends.
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The study was based in a quantitative nature and was derived with an event study and a hypothesis testing. The authors investigated the thirty most traded shares on the Stockholm stock exchange during a period of five years (2005 – 2009). They were analyzed during a total of nine days; the estimation window was set to sixty days. Theory: Leading theories in this field of study have been picked to enlighten and analysis the questions of the study. Theories used: Efficient market hypothesis, agent theory and the events of dividends.
Empiricism / Results:
The authors made an event study and hypothesis tested the information. From the data they could see a small abnormal return on every day except the day after the ex – day. However, they could not prove a significant relationship between the stocks return and the dividend.
Conclusion / Discussion:
The efficient market hypothesis was strengthened in the conclusion where all new information is reflected in the stock price because the null hypothesis was accepted in all nine cases. The authors also concluded that although they have a differentiated result compared to other studies, it could be a result of the recession. Another conclusion was that the relationship between shareholders and the management has been improved because of a better spread of information.
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Olovsson, Linnéa, and Daniel Martinsson. "Hållbarhetsarbete, en värdeskapare eller värdesänkare? : ESG-betygets samband med marknadsvärderingen." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-185476.
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Hållbarhetsarbete har erhållit ett ökat intresse de senaste åren och har blivit en allt mer viktig del i företagens arbete. För att mäta hur väl ett företag arbetar hållbart så har ESG-betyget utvecklats vilket konkretiserar och kvantifierar företagens hållbarhetsarbete utifrån tre faktorer, miljömässig hållbarhet, socialt ansvarstagande och bolagsstyrning. Genom den ökade exponeringen av hållbarhet har även investerare börjat ta ställning till hållbarhetsfrågor i sina investeringsbeslut. Denna studentuppsats ämnar undersöka sambandet mellan svenska företags ESG-betyg och dess marknadsvärdering för att kartlägga om investerare anser hållbarhetsarbete som något värdeskapande eller värdesänkande. Sekundärt kommer de tre delarna av ESG-betyget, nämligen miljö, socialt ansvarstagande och bolagsstyrning, att individuellt studeras för att finna ut om någon del av betyget har ett starkare samband med marknadsvärdering än de andra. Företagen som undersöks i studien är svenska börsnoterade aktiebolag som kvalificerat sig in på Large Cap-listan på Nasdaq Stockholm. Vidare behöver bolagen även ha betygsatts genom ESG-betyg från Thomson Reuters Eikon. Tidsperioden som studeras är 2016-2020. För att studera det eventuella sambandet mellan företagens marknadsvärdering och dess ESG-betyg tar studien avstamp i tidigare studier inom området. Baserat på dessa formuleras en första regressionsmodell och statistiska hypoteser som kommer testas genom regressionsanalys. Resultatet som erhålls genom den slutgiltiga regressionsanalysen är att ESG-betyg och marknadsvärdering har ett svagt positivt samband samt att bolagsstyrning har ett starkt positivt samband med värderingen. Gällande betyg för miljö och socialt ansvarstagande kunde inte något signifikant samband till marknadsvärderingen påvisas. De redovisade resultaten kommer slutligen att diskuteras utifrån ett teoretiskt perspektiv där kopplingar görs till tidigare forskning inom ämnet. Vidare kommer aktieägarteorin, intressentmodellen och effektiva marknadshypotesen ligga till grund för analys av studiens resultat, såväl som diskussionen. För att kunna använda resultatet bortom teorin kommer även praktiska implikationer av uppsatsen att diskuteras.
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Lindberg, Per. "Långsiktiga samband mellan aktiemarknader : En kointegrationsanalys av den svenska aktiemarknaden och fyra etablerade aktiemarknader." Thesis, Mid Sweden University, Department of Social Sciences, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-11807.
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I denna magisteruppsats undersöks eventuella långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och aktiemarknaderna i Tyskland, Storbritannien, USA och Japan. Detta sker genom en kointegrationsanalys med Engle-Grangers metod. Undersökningen omfattar åren 1992-2010 och resultaten visar inga tecken på att det skulle existera några långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och någon av de utländska aktiemarknaderna. Resultaten ger därmed indikationer om att den svenska aktiemarknaden tillsammans med de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen är kollektivt effektiva i åtminstone den svaga formen enligt Fama (1970). Då inga långsiktiga samband existerar bör även portföljdiversifiering mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen fungera effektivt på lång sikt.
In this master thesis the Engle-Granger method for cointegration analysis is used to examine long-term relationships between stock markets. The analysis is applied on Swedish stock market together with the stock markets in Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Japan. The result shows no significant signs of any form of long-term relationships between the Swedish and the foreign stock markets for the time period 1992 to 2010. The result therefore indicates that the Swedish stock market together with the foreign stock markets in the study is collectively efficient in at least the weak form according to Fama (1970). The result also indicates that portfolio diversification through investing in the Swedish stock market together with any of the foreign stock markets should be effective in the long run.
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Birgersson, Jonna, and Silvia Nguyen. "Marknadens talan : En eventstudie om marknadens reaktion när företag byter VD." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-29418.
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Purpose: The purpose of this work is to investigate how the market reacts to a change of CEO and if the impact on the share price is different when a company changes founder-CEO compared to a non founder-CEO. We chose to write about this type of phenomenon mainly because we see that CEOs today are replaced more frequently than before. Theory: The efficient market hypothesis, the agent theory and corporate governance. Method: The study is based on a quantitative deductive research approach. The companies investigated were Swedish companies listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and they have been examined using an event study and two hypothesis tests. Results: The result consists of 20 observations from 20 companies. The cumulated average abnormal return is presented for all days of the event window. The results of the hypothesis tests are also presented. Analysis: The first hypothesis test shows that the announcement of the change of CEO has an impact on the share price. The second hypothesis test shows that there is a difference regarding the impact between the announcement of change of a founder-CEO and a non founder-CEO. The event study shows that the impact of the change of a founder-CEO is positive and the impact of the change of a non founder-CEO is negative. Conclusion: The result of the study shows that the announcement of a change of CEO has a significant impact on the share price and the announcement of the change of a founder-CEO affect the stock price different from the change of a non founder-CEO.Syfte: Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka marknadens reaktion när ett företag byter VD samt om marknaden reagerar olika mellan ett byte av grundar-VD och icke grundar-VD. Vi valde att skriva om just denna typ av fenomen då vi upplever att VD:ar idag byts ut oftare jämfört med tidigare. Teori: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen, agentteorin och corporate governance. Metod: Den metod undersökningen har utgått från är en kvantitativ metod med deduktiv ansats. Svenska börsföretag har undersökts med hjälp av ett hypotestest och en eventstudie. Empiri: Empirin består av 20 observationer från 20 företag. Den ackumulerade genomsnittliga abnormala avkastningen presenteras för alla dagar i händelsefönstret. Även empirin från hypotestesten presenteras. Analys: Hypotestestet visar att tillkännagivande av VD-byte har en påverkan på aktiekursen. Det andra hypotestestet som utförts visar att det finns en skillnad i påverkan mellan tillkännagivande av VD-byte för grundar-VD och icke grundarVD. Eventstudien visar att påverkan av grundar-VD är positiv medan påverkan av icke grundar-VD är negativ. Slutsats: Empirin av undersökningen visar att tillkännagivande av VD-byte har en signifikant påverkan på aktiekursen samt att tillkännagivande för byte av en grundar-VD påverkar aktiekursen annorlunda jämfört med tillkännagivande av byte av en icke grundar-VD.
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Horndahl, Hampus, David Petersson, and Gerhard sköldeholt. "Nedskrivning av Goodwill : Finns det skäl för företag att vara oroliga?" Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-96905.
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The purpose of this thesis is to determine if impairment of goodwill is a value relevant factor to the investors in the companies listed on the Stockholm Large Cap stock exchange. This paper focuses on the annual reports from the 100 largest companies listed on the exchange. The empirical model used is Capital Market Research and Market Based Accounting Research which is derived from Positive Accounting Theory. Capital Market Research and Market Based Accounting Research are based on critical assumptions made in the Efficient Market Hypothesis which is why it has its own section in the theoretical chapter. The theoretical chapter contains extensive information regarding the components of goodwill, its uses in accounting and how it is meant to be dealt with. The analysis connects our empirical findings with our empirical model in order to draw conclusions from the output gathered in Minitab. Our analysis shows that only small proportions of the large quantities of goodwill on the Swedish stock exchange are impaired on a yearly basis. We also find that impairment of goodwill does not have a significant impact on market value, however goodwill itself does. Investors either do not view impairment of goodwill as value relevant, or the impairment was known beforehand and was therefore reflected in the price of the stock. Goodwill is considered value relevant most likely due to investors viewing the preeminence of goodwill as a sign that the company will draw benefit from the underlying assets for years to come. We conclude that impairment of goodwill is not a value relevant factor to the investors in the Swedish stock exchange, but that goodwill, and increasing goodwill is. The paper ends with suggestions for further research.Syftet med denna avhandling är att fastställa om nedskrivning av goodwill är en värderelevant faktor för investerarna på den svenska Large Cap-börsen. Denna avhandling fokuserar på årsredovisningarna från de 100 största bolagen som är noterade på denna börs. De empiriska modeller som används är kapitalmarknadsforskning och marknadsbaserad redovisningsforskning, vilka båda härstammar från positiv redovisningsteori. Kapitalmarknadsforskning och marknadsbaserad redovisningsforskning baseras på viktiga antagande gjorda i den effektiva marknadshypotesen, som har sitt egna avsnitt under teorikapitlet. Teorikapitlet innehåller omfattande information gällande komponenterna i goodwill, dess användning inom redovisning samt hanteringen av goodwill. Analysen kopplar samman våra empiriska fynd med vår empiriska modell i syfte att dra slutsatser kring resultaten som sammanställts från programmet Minitab. Vår analys visar att förhållandevis små mängder av de enorma goodwillposterna på den svenska Large cap-börsen skrivs ner på årlig basis. Vi finner också att nedskrivning av goodwill inte har någon väsentlig påverkan på bolagets marknadsvärde, vilket däremot goodwillposten i sig har. Antingen så ser inte investerarna nedskrivning av goodwill som värderelevant eller så var nedskrivningarna kända i förväg och således redan inräknade i aktiens pris. Att goodwill i sig är betraktat som värderelevant beror troligen på att investerarna ser innehavet av goodwill som ett tecken på att bolaget kommer dra nytta av dessa underliggande tillgångar under de kommande åren. Vi drar slutsatsen att nedskrivning av goodwill inte är en värderelevant faktor för investerarna på den svenska börsen, men däremot att goodwill och en ökning av goodwillposten är värderelevant. Uppsatsen avslutas med förslag till ytterligare forskning
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Svenson, Niklas, and Niklas Wilsson. "Börsintroduktioners påverkan på konkurrenter : en eventstudie som kartlägger börsintroduktioners påverkan på sina konkurrenter." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30727.
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Purpose: The purpose of the study was to analyze whether initial public offerings had an impact on rival firms. Theory: The efficient market hypothesis model, Information asymmetry and the signal theory. Method: A quantitative approach in the methodology has been undertaken where an event study was constructed in order to measure cumulative average abnormal return. The empirical data used in the study consists of 243 rival firms that had an initial public offering occurring in their industry. Two hypotheses have been tested using the simple t-test. Results: A compilation of the abnormal return of rival firms was made which showed no clear patterns of an impact taking place. When testing the two hypotheses both were rejected which showed that no significant impact took place. Analysis: According to previous research and theories an impact on the rival firms should have shown but the different sample might be the reason of our results being different. Conclusion: Due to the two hypotheses being rejected the event study finds no significant evidence of an abnormal return occurring in connection to the initial public offering of a rival firm.Syfte: Studiens syfte var att kartlägga om börsintroduktioner hade någon påverkan på konkurrerande företag. Teori: Den effektiva marknadshypotesen, Signalteori och asymmetrisk information. Metod: Studien använde en kvantitativ typ som övergripande forskningsdesign. En deduktiv ansats användes där teorier låg som grund till skapandet av hypoteser. Tillvägagångssättet var med en eventstudie som lämpar sig bra för stora mängder data. Studien använde aktiekurser från 243 konkurrerande företag. Resultat: En sammanställning gjordes av konkurrerande företags abnormala avkastning vilket inte visade något tydligt mönster för att påverkan finns. Vid test av hypoteser förkastades både hypoteserna vilket gav resultatet att ingen påverkan fanns. Analys: Enligt tidigare forskning och teorier borde en påverkan kunna utläsas. Skillnaden på urval kan vara en anledning att tidigare studier fått andra resultat. Slutsats: Den kumulativa genomsnittliga abnormala avkastningen gjorde rörelser vid de olika mätdagarna något mönster går inte att urskilja och den insamlade data som användes visade inget signifikant resultat vid hypotestest.
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Aho, Rabi, and Daniel Aho. "Företagsförvärvens påverkan på aktiekursutvecklingen : En eventstudie om hur förvärvsmetoden påverkar aktiekursen." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30893.
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Syftet med studien är undersöka hur förvärvsmetoden påverkar de uppköpande företagens abnormala avkastning på kort sikt, samt utröna huruvida företagens branschtillhörighet har en betydelse för reaktionen. I studien tillämpas tre teorier och flertalet tidigare forskningar som är av relevans för studien. De teorier som nyttjas är olika former av förvärv, effektiva marknadshypotesen och signalteorin. Denna studie utförs av en kvantitativ och komparativ ansats med hjälp av en eventstudie där 64 företagsförvärv observerats. Förvärven är uppdelade på 4 olika branscher och fördelade inom tillvägagångssätten aktie- och inkråmsförvärv. Dessa förvärv har undersökts under en elvadagarsperiod, fem dagar innan till och med fem dagar efter offentliggörandet. Den insamlade sekundärdata som bearbetats har erhållits från Nasdaq OMX, Google Finance och databasen Zephyr. Resultaten enligt denna studie förmedlar om att ett inkråmsförvärv är att föredra i jämförelse med aktieförvärv, detta med undantag för företag i sällanköpsvarubranschen som gynnas av ett aktieförvärv. Det går även att urskilja hur hälsovårdsbranschen är den bransch som gynnas mest vid offentliggörande av företagsförvärv, sett till den abnormala avkastningen.The purpose of the study is to examine how the acquisition method affects the purchasing companies’ abnormal returns in the short term, and to ascertain whether the companies’ industry affiliation has an impact on the reaction. The study applied three theories and a number of previous researches that are of significance to the study. Theories used are different forms of acquisitions, the efficient market hypothesis and the signal theory. This study was made by a quantitative and comparative approach using an event study where 64 acquisitions were observed. The acquisitions were divided into four different industries and distributed in the approaches of share- and asset acquisitions. These acquisitions have been observed during an eleven-day period, five days before to five days after publication. The collected secondary processed data has been collected from Nasdaq OMX, Google Finance and the database Zephyr. The results according to this study conveys that an acquisition of asset is preferable in comparison with the acquisition of shares, except for companies in the consumer discretionary sector as seen benefits from an acquisition of shares. It is possible to discern how the healthcare sector is the one that benefits most in the publication of an acquisition, in terms of the abnormal returns.
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Carlström, Anders, Rikard Karlström, and Jakob Sellgren. "Value Vs Growth : A study of portfolio returns on the Stockholm Stock Exchange." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-294.
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Research Questions:
• Will a portfolio based on value stocks, on a risk-adjusted basis, outperform a portfolio based on growth stocks on the Stockholm Stock Exchange?
• Is the superior strategy able to generate abnormal risk adjusted returns by beating the OMXS in-dex?
Purpose:
The purpose is to investigate if an investor by purchasing a portfolio based on value stocks will outperform a portfolio based on growth stocks. Furthermore the authors aim to examine if the superior portfolio can beat the OMXS index and create abnormal returns on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
Method:
The quantitative research method is used when gathering information. To deter-mine which stocks to include each year between 1993 to 2005 the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is used. Based on this multiple the sample is divided into two extreme groups of low and high P/B companies. These two groups are further divided according to their price-to-earning ratios (P/E). This creates four portfolios, which symbolizes value and growth stocks. Each portfolio’s return is recorded annually during the 12 year period. The returns are risk-adjusted in order to find the superior portfolio. This portfolio is then compared with the OMXS index for the same period to find out whether it has created an abnormal return.
Conclusion:
The superior and most extreme value portfolio, consisting of stocks with low P/B and low P/E ratios generated a cumulative risk-adjusted return of 1908% between 1993-2005 and beat the most extreme growth portfolio consisting of high P/Bs and high P/Es which generated a negative cumulative return. The superior portfolio was also able to beat the OMXS index during the years of 1993-2005, generating an abnormal risk-adjusted return of 7.77 times that of the OMXS index.
Frågeställningar:
• Kommer en portfölj baserad på värdeaktier, på en riskjusterad basis att slå en portfölj baserad på tillväxtaktier på Stockholmsbörsen?
• Kan den vinnande strategin skapa en riskjusterad överavkastning över OMXS index?
Syfte:
Syftet är att undersöka om en investerare, genom att köpa en portfölj baserad på värdeaktier, kan slå en portfölj baserad på tillväxtaktier. Vidare har författarna som mål att undersöka om den vinnande portföljen kan slå OMXS-index och skapa överavkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden.
Metod:
Informationsinsamlingen till uppsatsen har en kvantitativ ansatts som grund. För att avgöra vilka aktier som ska inkluderas i undersökningen mellan åren 1993 till 2005 har författarna använt sig av nyckeltalet aktiekurs över eget kapital (P/B-tal). Med det här nyckeltalet till grund har urvalet delats upp i två extremgrupper, lågt och högt P/B. Dessa två grupper delades upp ytterligare efter dess aktiekurs över vinst (P/E-tal). Detta skapar fyra portföljer som symboliserar värde- och tillväxtaktier. Avkastning på portföljerna mäts årli-gen under 12 år och sedan riskjusteras för att hitta den mest lönsamma portföljen. Denna portfölj jämförs sedan med OMXS-index för samma period för att se om portföljen har skapat överavkastning.
Slutsats:
Den bästa och mest extrema värdeaktieportföljen som bestod av lågt P/B och lågt P/E skapade en kumulativ riskjusterad avkastning på 1908% och slog den mest extrema tillväxtportföljen som genererade en negativ kumulativ avkastning. Den bästa portföljen slog också OMXS-index under åren 1993 till 2005 och skapade en riskjusterad överavkast-ning på 7.77 gånger OMXS.
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Svanberg, Johan, and Daniel Max. "The Moat of Finance : Does Complexity Reward the Private Investor?" Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254858.
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This paper evaluates the ability of single and multi-ratio investment strategies, such as P/E, P/B, Magic Formula and Piotroski F-score, to generate excess returns and positive alpha values on the Stockholm Stock Market. Performances of the strategies tested are compared to the Stockholm Stock Market as a whole, also known as the index “OMXSPI”. In this paper, three single-ratio strategies are investigated along with three multi-ratio strategies, chosen on the basis of popularity among private investors, according to our observations. We also compare these strategies’ returns to the returns of the ten best performing funds, over the last ten years, found on SEB’s and Handelsbanken’s fund lists. We find that both multi and single-ratio strategies generated alpha values and that single-ratio strategies performed well, relative to multi-ratio strategies, considering their simplicity. The current portfolio composition from screening stocks based on low P/E, P/B and high dividend yield alone are also associated with less risk, expressed in volatility, than portfolios that would be composed based on the multi-ratio methods. We even find that one of the more complex strategies, Graham Screener, underperformed single-ratio strategies, when comparing yearly alpha values over 15 and 17 years, respectively. The funds’ alpha values are also very poor compared to both single and multi-ratio strategies considering the managers’ likely investment experience and complex investment systems. In sum, our empirical data suggests that excess returns were indeed attainable during the investigated time-periods by following a rule-based investing philosophy in conjunction with single or multi-ratio strategies, and unless the investor has sublime experience and knowledge, he or she is probably better off using this type of investing rather than making investment decisions in a discretionary manner.We also conclude that the Stockholm Stock Market probably suffered from lower market efficiency, from the perspective of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and lower screening abilities and tools, such as Börsdata, among investors in the beginning of the testing periods, which could be one reason as to why these ratio strategies worked as well as they did. However, the results are still interesting because complexity does not seem to imply value (extra alpha generation) of significant magnitude, if at all. What does seem to imply value, are the minimization of human interactions with investment models and emotional stability.
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Smith, Jacques. "Constructing low cost core-satellite portfolios with multiple risk constraints: practical applications to Robo advising in South Africa using active, passive and smart-beta strategies." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32985.
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Risk and tracking error budgeting was originally adopted by large institutional investors, including pension funds, plan sponsors, foundations, and endowments. More recently, risk and tracking error budgeting have gained popularity among financial advisors, multi-managers, fund of funds managers, high net worth individuals as well as retail investors. These techniques contribute to the portfolio optimisation process by limiting the extent to which a portfolio can deviate from its benchmark with regards to risk and tracking error. This is an ambitious paper that attempts to determine the optimal strategy to practically implement risk and tracking error budgeting as a portfolio optimisation technique in South Africa. This study attempts to bridge the gap between active, passive, and smart-beta investment management styles by introducing a low-cost portfolio construction technique, for core-satellite portfolio management, which contributes to the risk and tracking error budgeting process. Core-satellite portfolios are designed to expose the portfolio to a low-cost primary “core” consisting of passive and enhanced index funds, thus systematic risk “beta”, limiting the tracking error of the portfolio. The secondary “satellite” component is allocated to active and smart-beta managers to exploit expected excess return “alpha”. The primary aim of this research is to construct a rule-based product range of core-satellite portfolios called “replica portfolios”. The product range builds on the foundation of the Association for Savings & Investments South Africa (ASISA) framework. The study identifies three “target portfolios” from ASISA's framework, namely (1) High Risk: SA General Equity, (2) Medium Risk: SA Multi-Asset High Equity and (3) Low Risk: SA Multi-Asset Low Equity. Through this framework, active managers from each category are shortlisted using a Sharpe and Information Ratio filter. A secondary filtering technique, namely Returns Based Style Analysis (RBSA) is used to determine the style, R-squared and alpha-generating ability of active managers versus the passive asset classes and style indices they seek to replicate. Applying Euler's theorem for homogenous functions, we decompose the risk of the coresatellite portfolio into the risk contributed by each of its components. The primary mandate of the core-satellite portfolios in the product range is to allocate risk and tracking error efficiently across several investment management styles and asset classes in order to maximise returns while remaining within the specified risk parameters. iii The results highlighted that active managers, after fees, predominantly failed to outperform their benchmarks and passive building blocks, as identified through RBSA over the sample period (October 2009 – September 2019). However, only a small number of active managers generated superior risk-adjusted returns and were included in the core-satellite range of products. This study recommends to investors that they exploit the “hot-hands effect” by investing in specialised, benchmark agnostic active managers who consistently produce superior risk-adjusted returns. By blending active, passive and smart-beta strategies, investors are exposed to less total risk, less risk per holding and a lower tracking error. The three coresatellite portfolios developed in this study generated absolute and risk-adjusted returns that are more significant than their active and passive counterparts. Fee arbitrage was derived through the range of core-satellite products, resulting in tangible alpha over the sample period. The study encourages investors to use smart-beta strategies alongside active and passive funds since it improves Sharpe and Information ratios while enhancing the original portfolio's characteristics.
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Hanze, Nathalie, and Fredrik Enman. "Vad vinner vi på namnet? : En flerfallsstudie om arenasponsring i Sverige utifrån ett finansieringsperspektiv." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30470.
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Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka vad det finns för finansiellt syfte med att köpa namnrättigheterna för en arena där det i främsta fall bedrivs idrottsrelaterade evenemang. Delsyftet är att undersöka hur företagets aktiekurs påverkas vid tillkännagivandet av att de blir arenasponsor samt att se huruvida arenasponsorns aktiekurs påverkas efter att ett idrottsevenemang ägt rum. Metod: Undersökningen är en flerfallsstudie av fem företag där en metodtriangulering med en kombination av kvalitativ och kvantitativ metod används för att på så sätt ge en rättvis bild av fenomenet. Uppsatsen utgår från ett positivistiskt vetenskapligt förhållningssätt och ett deduktivt angreppssätt. Den kvalitativa delen av uppsatsen består av primärdata i form av intervjuer med personer från ansvariga positioner på företagen. Den kvantitativa delen består av en eventstudie-metodologi där den insamlade datan användes för att mäta om en avvikande avkastning (AR) uppstod i samband med tillkännagivelsen av namnrättighetsaffären samt en genomsnittlig avvikande avkastning (AAR) vid idrottsevenemangen. Utöver detta undersöktes även om specifika matchutfall påverkade företagens aktiekurs. Eventperioden för idrottsevenemangen sattes till dagen efter evenemanget medan eventperioden för tillkännagivelsen sattes till 75 dagar, 25 dagar innan och 50 dagar efter nyheten. Uppsatsens estimeringsperiod omfattade i båda fall 70 dagar. Resultat: Vid tillkännagivandet av arenarättighetsaffären uppvisar resultatet mellan en positiv AR på 2,48 procent till en negativ AR på 1,44 procent för de sex rättighetsaffärerna. Vid matchutfallen uppvisar resultatet allt från en positiv AAR på 0,26 procent till en negativ AR på -0,06 procent. Slutsats: Arenasponsringens stora finansiella vinning ges genom ett starkt varumärkeskapande vilket på sikt leder till ökade finansiella fördelar för företaget med namnrättigheterna av arenan. Finansiellt påverkades inte företagets aktiekurs av varken matchutfall eller tillkännagivandet av arenasponsringsnyheten.Purpose: The aim of the thesis is to see what the financial purpose is for buying the naming rights of an arena where the main activity is sporting events. The subsidiary aim is to investigate if the company's share price is affected by the announcement that they became arena sponsors and to see whether the stadium sponsor's share price is affected after a sporting event has taken place. Methodology: The survey is one multi-case study of five companies, which are based on both a quantitative and a qualitative approach. The paper was based on a positivistic scientific approach and deductive approaches. The qualitative part of the thesis consists of primary data in the form of interviews with individuals holding responsible positions in the companies. The quantitative part consisted of an eventstudy, where the collected data is used to measure if an abnormal return (AR) has arisen in connection with the announcement of the name rights deal and an average abnormal return (AAR) in connections with the sporting events. Event period for sporting events is added to the day after the event while the event period for the announcement is added to 75 days, 25 days before and 50 days after the news. The surveys estimationperiod was comprised to 70 days. Results: At the announcement of the arena namingrights deal presented results from a positive AR of 2.48 percent to a negative AR of 1.44 percent. During the match, the outcome showed the results of a positive AAR of 0.26 percent to a negative AR of -0.06 percent. Conclusions: The big financial benefit of buying the naming rights of an arena is the strong brandbuilding which ultimately leads to increased financial benefits for the sponsoring company. The company's share price is not affected by either match outcomes or the announcement of the sponsorship deal.
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Corrêa, Érica Posch de Carvalho. "Avaliação da eficiência de mercado para o setor privado brasileiro de educação: estudo de evento." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2013. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/1536.
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Previous issue date: 2013-06-03This study aims at evaluating the hypothesis of market efficiency for the private education sector in Brazil. This analysis is based on an evaluation of the return that stocks have over the disclosures of material facts and quarterly results, using the hypothesis of semi-strong informational efficiency of the market, developed by Fama (1970). From historical data of stock prices of four companies listed on the Bovespa Index, it is possible to assess whether this market meets the specific market efficiency requirements of the theory, or on the other hand, it has inefficiencies that market players could use to obtain abnormal returns. We evaluated acquisitions and releases of quarterly results, in order to have an overview of corporate information. The conclusion is that one cannot reject the efficient market hypothesis, as the market reacted to new information published, and the reaction was absorbed by the price of assets, after the event window
Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a hipótese de eficiência de mercado para o setor de educação privada brasileiro. Esta análise está fundamentada na avaliação do retorno que as ações tiveram durante as divulgações de fatos relevantes e resultados trimestrais, utilizando a hipótese semi-forte de eficiência informacional do mercado, elaborada por Fama (1970). A partir de dados históricos do preço das ações de quatro companhias listadas na BOVESPA, é possível avaliar se este mercado em específico atende aos requisitos de eficiência da teoria, ou se, por outro lado, possui ineficiências que os agentes de mercado poderiam se utilizar para obter retornos anormais. Foram avaliadas divulgações de aquisições e de resultados trimestrais, de modo que se tenha um panorama geral de informações das empresas. A conclusão é que não se pode rejeitar a hipótese de mercado eficiente, uma vez que o mercado reagiu às novas informações publicadas, e a reação foi absorvida pelo preço dos ativos, após a janela do evento
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Kuklik, Robert G. "Capital Asset Prices Modelling - Concept VAPM." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-196945.
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The key objective of this thesis is the outline of an alternative capital market modeling framework, the Volatility Asset Pricing Model, VAPM, inspired by the innovative dual approach of Mandelbrot and Hudson using the method based on synthesis of two seemingly antagonistic factors -- the volatility of market prices and their serial dependence determining the capital markets' dynamics. The pilot tests of this model in various periods using the market index as well as a portfolio of selected securities delivered generally satisfactory results. Firstly, the work delivers a brief recapitulation regarding the concepts of a consumer/investor choice under general conditions of hypothetical certainty. Secondly, this outline is then followed by a description of the "classical" methodologies in the risky environment of uncertainty, with assessment of their corresponding key models, i.e. the CAPM, SIM, MIM, APTM, etc., notwithstanding results of the related testing approaches. Thirdly, this assessment is based on evaluation of the underlying doctrine of Efficient Market Hypothesis in relation to the so called Random Walk Model. Fourthly, in this context the work also offers a brief exposure to a few selected tests of these contraversial concepts. Fifthly, the main points of conteporary approaches such as the Fractal Dimension and the Hurst Exponent in the dynamic framework of information entropy are subsequently described as the theoretical tools leading to development of the abovementioned model VAPM. The major contribution of this thesis is considered its attempt to apply the abovementioned concepts in practice, with the intention to possibly inspire a further analytical research.
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Herrgård, Stjärnstråle Sofia, and Sara Lorenz. "CSR:s påverkan på investerare : En empirisk studie om sambandet mellan investerare och företags sociala samhällsansvar." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30934.
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Syfte: Syftet med studien är att genom en eventstudieundersöka om och i sådan fall hur investerare låter sina investeringsbeslut påverkas av positiva respektive negativa sociala CSR-händelser, denna reaktion antas avspeglas i förändringar av aktiekurser. Teori: Den effektiva markandshypotesen och IntressentmodellenMetod: Undersökningens metod har utgått ifrån en kvantitativ ansats. Studiens empiri består av 86 sociala CSR händelser där den genomsnittliga ackumulerade abnormala avkastningen har mätts genom en eventstudie. I empiri-kapitlet finns även studiens hypotesprövning med enkelt t-test. Empiri: Eventstudienfinner ett samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Sambandet ger en negativ effekt på aktiekurserna. Effekten är starkare vid negativa sociala-CSR händelser än vid positiva. Hypotesprövningarna resulterade i att samtliga tre hypoteser förkastades, vilket innebär att det inte finns något samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Analys: Marknaden antas vara semi-effektiv, något mer vid negativa sociala CSR-händelser än positiva. Investerarna som är en primär intressent i ett företag värderar inte socialt CSR-arbete. Eventuellt ser de till och med det som värdeförstörande. Det är någon annan intressent än investerarna som driver på arbetet med socialt CSR hos ett företag. Slutsats: Eventstudienfinner ett samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. Hypotesprövningarna resulterade i att samtliga tre hypoteser förkastades, vilket innebär att det inte finns något samband mellan sociala CSR-händelser och investerares investeringsbeslut. De motstridiga resultaten leder till slutsatsen att det inte med säkerhet går att besvara det undersökta problemet.Purpose: The purpose of the study is, through an event study to determine whether if, and in such case how investors let their investment decisions be influenced by positive and negative social CSR events. This reaction is assumed to be reflected in changes of share prices. Theory: Theefficient market hypothesis model and the stakeholder theory.Method: A quantitative approach in the methodology has been undertaken. The study's empirical data consists of 86 social CSR events, where the average cumulative abnormal return has been measured by an event study. Three hypotheses has been tested using the simple t-test. Empiricism: The event study finds a correlation between social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The correlation has a negative effect on stock prices. The effect is stronger for the negative social CSR events than for the positive events. Hypothesis tests resulted in that all three hypotheses were rejected, which means that there is no connection between the social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. Analysis: The market proves to be semi-strong efficient, slightly more so for negative social CSR events than for positive events. Investors as a primary stakeholder in a company do not value social CSR-work. Possibly they even see it as value destructive. There is other stakeholders than investors in companies, that are initiating working with social CSR. Conclusion: The event study finds a correlation between social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The hypothesis tests resulted in that all three hypotheses were rejected, which means that there is no connection between the social CSR events and investor's investment decisions. The conflicting results leads to the conclusion that it is not possible to answer the investigated problem with sertainty.
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Degardh, Anton, and Poian Shafiee. "Spelindustrins Paradox : En eventstudie om lansering av tv-spels påverkan på aktiekursen." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-24102.
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Purpose: To examine how video-game releases affect the share price, and if video-game reviews have any impact on the share price of gaming corporations. Method: A quantitative deductive research approach is applied with event study methodology used as basis. The investigated companies were the five largest gaming companies listed on the U.S. NASDAQ exchange. A total of 29 video-game launches and 85 reviews where examined. Theory: The study is based on The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Agent Theory, Public Relations Theory, Nextopia and previous research. Results: The result contains 114 observations in five companies. The result accounts for the cumulative abnormal return for each video-game. It also accounts for the cumulative average abnormal return for each company ten days after release. Analysis: The hypothesis test accounts for a statistical significant correlation between negative abnormal return and the release. It is also accounted for a cumulative average abnormal return of -2,29 % of the video-game companies stocks. Conclusion: There is a negative abnormal return for shareholders ten days after a video-game release. The result and the analysis dose confirm a direct correlation between video-game reviews and the abnormal return.
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Karvonen, Fanny, and Emelie Johansson. "Cross Border M&A - Friskt vågat, något vunnet? : En eventstudie om 85 stycken företag på Stockholmsbörsen-Mid Cap." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-41085.
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Förvärv av företag sker till höger och vänster, i alla länder, branscher och kategorier. Motiven till förvärv må vara av varierande art, men det som är av betydelse för ett företag är vilket värde ett förvärv kan generera. Denna studie undersöker marknadsreaktioner vid olika typer och kombinationer av förvärv; däribland horisontella, vertikala och branschspecifika förvärv, med huvudsaklig inriktning på värdet som skapas vid gränsöverskridande och nationella förvärv. Detta görs i syfte att kartlägga eventuella överlägsna typer av förvärv. Klassiska teorier i form av effektiva marknadshypotesen och “random walk”-teorin i kombination med insiderhandel utgör den vetenskapliga utgångspunkten i studien. Metoden är en eventstudie, där den abnormala avkastningen vid dessa förvärv beräknas, för att kunna analyseras i förhållande till tidigare forskning. Vidare testas studiens hypoteser med hypotesprövning och samband analyseras med hjälp av enkla linjära regressioner som sedan tolkas. Resultatet visar på att gränsöverskridande förvärv ger den högsta genomsnittliga kumulativa abnormala avkastningen (CAAR), och vidare är horisontella förvärv att föredra över vertikala av samma anledning. Offentliga sektorn och tjänstesektorn ger de högsta CAAR sett till branscher.Merger and acquisitions is happening everywhere; in all countries, industries and in all categories. The motives of acquiring other companies may differ, but what is truly meaningful is the value an acquisition can bring. This study deals with different types and combinations of acquisitions; amongst horizontal, vertical and industry specific acquisitions, with main focus on the value created in Cross Border and national acquisitions. The aim of the study is thereby to plot superior types of acquisitions. Classic theories like the Efficient market hypothesis and the Random walk theory will be used as a theoretical framework, along with the idea of Insider trading. The method used is an Event study, where the abnormal return is calculated at the announcement day of acquisition and is later analyzed in association to prior studies. Deduced hypothesis are then processed in hypothesis testing and correlations are being studied through simple linear regressions. The result show that Cross Border acquisitions give the highest value (CAAR) to acquirer and the horizontal acquisitions are superior to vertical ones for the same reason. The public sector and the service sector yield the highest CAAR when industries are being studied.
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Bisset, Craig, and 奎瑞格. "Forecasting Oil Price Movements:The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Elliot Wave Theory Comparison." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51302883764959157112.
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碩士國立成功大學
國際管理碩士在職專班
97
Two theories are compared, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Elliot Wave Theory (EWT), using qualitative analysis in the form of a direct comparison and technical analysis in the form of chart analysis. Classical economic theory and its leading proponent Efficient Market Hypothesis EMH represent the status quo and the idea of rational decision making in financial markets, while Elliot Wave Theory represents the idea of mass irrational behavior which is somewhat predictable. These two theoretical extremes represent contrasting views of how finance markets work. Crude oil is the chosen medium through which these two theories are compared. The comparison is made within the framework of gleaning useful trading and investing advice for an amateur with limited resources. The results do not indicate a clear cut winner, but offers insight into the strengths and weaknesses of either theory, and how an amateur could benefit.
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Seetharam, Yudhvir. "The dynamics of market efficiency: testing the adaptive market hypothesis in South Africa." Thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/21982.
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A thesis submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce,
Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in fulfilment of the requirements for
the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph/D).
Johannesburg, South Africa
June 2016In recent years, the debate on market efficiency has shifted to providing alternate forms of the hypothesis, some of which are testable and can be proven false. This thesis examines one such alternative, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), with a focus on providing a framework for testing the dynamic (cyclical) notion of market efficiency using South African equity data (44 shares and six indices) over the period 1997 to 2014. By application of this framework, stylised facts emerged. First, the examination of market efficiency is dependent on the frequency of data. If one were to only use a single frequency of data, one might obtain conflicting conclusions. Second, by binning data into smaller sub-samples, one can obtain a pattern of whether the equity market is efficient or not. In other words, one might get a conclusion of, say, randomess, over the entire sample period of daily data, but there may be pockets of non-randomness with the daily data. Third, by running a variety of tests, one provides robustness to the results. This is a somewhat debateable issue as one could either run a variety of tests (each being an improvement over the other) or argue the theoretical merits of each test befoe selecting the more appropriate one. Fourth, analysis according to industries also adds to the result of efficiency, if markets have high concentration sectors (such as the JSE), one might be tempted to conclude that the entire JSE exhibits, say, randomness, where it could be driven by the resources sector as opposed to any other sector. Last, the use of neural networks as approximators is of benefit when examining data with less than ideal sample sizes. Examining five frequencies of data, 86% of the shares and indices exhibited a random walk under daily data, 78% under weekly data, 56% under monthly data, 22% under quarterly data and 24% under semi-annual data. The results over the entire sample period and non-overlapping sub-samples showed that this model's accuracy varied over time. Coupled with the results of the trading strategies, one can conclude that the nature of market efficiency in South Africa can be seen as time dependent, in line with the implication of the AMH.
MT2017
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Speith, Philipp Christoph. "The theory and empirics of false news shocks." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/23384.
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News articles, which pop up pretending to bear valuable information for investors, cause significant changes in stock prices. But occasionally that information turns out to be false. According to Eugene Fama (1965) and his Efficient Market Hypothesis financial markets are efficient if and when new information about the firm fundamentals is instantaneously incorporated in its stock price. In theory, the recall of false news should lead to a reverse of prices to pre-event levels. In reality, the idea of efficient markets faces many challenges. It will be shown that, besides other market anomalies, public attention induces a persistent rise (fall) in share prices, even though clarifying information has already been published.
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Laubscher, Eugene Rudolph. "Capital market theories and pricing models : evaluation and consolidation of the available body of knowledge." Diss., 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/17174.
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The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide
a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets,
of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor
behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study
are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes
(8-S) Option Pricing Model.
The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing
models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of
reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved.
The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models
should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context
are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors
should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities
Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established
whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions
of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT
should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand
the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South
African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new
options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African
conditions.Financial Accounting
M. Com. (Accounting)
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Brewer, Wayne Peter. "Measuring the relationship between intraday returns, volatility spill-overs and market beta during financial distress / Wayne Peter Brewer." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/10503.
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The modelling of volatility has long been seminal to finance and risk management in general, as it provides information on the spread of portfolio returns. In order to reduce the overall volatility of a stock portfolio, modern portfolio theory (MPT), within an efficient market hypothesis (EMH) framework, dictates that a well-diversified portfolio should have a market beta of one (thereafter adjusted for risk preference), and thus move in sync with a benchmark market portfolio. Such a stock portfolio is highly correlated with the market, and considered to be entirely hedged against unsystematic risk. However, the risks within and between stocks present in a portfolio still impact on each other. In particular, risk present in a particular stock may spill over and affect the risk profile of another stock included within a portfolio - a phenomenon known as volatility spill-over effects.
In developing economies such as South Africa, portfolio managers are limited in their choices of stocks. This increases the difficulty of fully diversifying a stock portfolio given the volatility spill-over effects that may be present between stocks listed on the same exchange. In addition, stock portfolios are not static, and therefore require constant rebalancing according to the mandate of the managing fund. The process of constant rebalancing of a stock portfolio (for instance, to follow the market) becomes more complex and difficult during times of financial distress. Considering all these conditions, portfolio managers need all the relevant information (more than MPT would provide) available to them in order to select and rebalance a portfolio of stocks that are as mean-variance efficient as possible.
This study provides an additional measure to market beta in order to construct a more efficient portfolio. The additional measure analyse the volatility spill-over effects between stocks within the same portfolio. Using intraday stock returns and a residual based test (aggregate shock [AS] model), volatility spill-over effects are estimated between stocks. It is shown that when a particular stock attracts fewer spill-over effects from the other stocks in the portfolio, the overall portfolio volatility would decrease as well. In most cases market beta showcased similar results; this change is however not linear in the case of market beta. Therefore, in order to construct a more efficient portfolio, one requires both a portfolio that has a unit correlation with the market, but also includes stocks with the least amount of volatility spill-over effects among each other.MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013
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Njuguna, Josephine M. "An investigation of the market efficiency of the Nairobi Securities Exchange." Diss., 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/20295.
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This study tests for the market efficiency of the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) after the year 2000 to determine the effect of technological advancements on market efficiency. Data that is used is the NSE 20 share index over the period 2001 to 2015; and the NSE All Share Index (NSE ASI) from its initiation during 2008 to 2015. We cannot accept the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the NSE using the serial correlation test, the unit root tests and the runs test. However, we can accept the EMH for the more robust variance ratio test. Overall, the results of the market efficiency are mixed. The most significant finding is that the efficiency of the NSE has increased since the year 2000 which suggests that advancements in technology have contributed to the increase in the market efficiency of the NSE.Business Management
M. Com. (Business Management)