Academic literature on the topic 'The newest banking products'

E-banking is seen as the newest delivery channel for banking services in many developed countries and is believed to have a significant impact on the bank market. It is contended that e-banking is providing numerous opportunities for banks and non-bank financial institutions to add a low cost distribution channel to their existent distribution channels in order to better serve their customers by offering high quality products and services. Little research on factors influencing the intention to use e-banking has been implemented in newly emerging countries such as Vietnam. Thus, this study has, based on an extensive literature review on e-banking benefits for both banks and their customers and relevant theories on innovation adoption, proposed a comprehensive model of e-banking intention to use by customers in Vietnam. Based on the structural equation modeling technique, both linear and non-linear effects were tested. The results show that subjective norms, perceived ease of use, trust, and perceived benefit were statistically significant in directly influencing intention to use e-banking. In addition, subjective norms, perceived ease of use, and trust were statistically significant in indirectly influencing intention to use e-banking via perceived benefit. Practical implications and future studies were also discussed.

PurposeThere are two primary objectives of the research. Firstly, the study aims to explore the service quality dimension of Indonesian Islamic banking using a CARTER model. Secondly, the study aims to examine the relationship of service quality towards customer satisfaction, trust and loyalty in Indonesian Islamic banking.Design/methodology/approachThe conceptual framework of the study will be examined using the PLS–SEM approach. Then, it will be examined using the 392 collected data from Indonesian Islamic banking customer in Surabaya.FindingsReliability becomes a key driver of customer satisfaction towards Indonesian Islamic banking. Then, customer loyalty will improve more significant if the Indonesian Islamic bank can firstly improve its customers trust.Research limitations/implicationsThe research results are questionable to represents Indonesia in general because all the sample of the research is Islamic banking customers in Surabaya, East Java Province.Practical implicationsUpdating with the newest technology in delivering integrated products or services will lead Indonesian Islamic banking satisfying its customer more. Then, Indonesia Islamic banking should develop the capability of human resources related to banking skills and understanding of Islamic principles to increase customer trust.Originality/valueThis research is essential in complementing the previous research regarding the level of contribution of compliance in Indonesia Islamic banking. Then, the research discusses how compliance becomes an essential part of service quality that could increase the market share of Indonesian Islamic banking by enhancing the level of customer trust.

Islamic finance assets advanced at double-digit rates during the past decade, from about US$200 billion in 2003 to an estimated US$1.8 trillion at the end of 2013 (Ernst & Young 2014; IFSB 2014; Wyman 2009). Hence, despite this growth, Islamic finance and its related products are still focused in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and Malaysia, and represent less than 1 percent of global financial assets. While, Islamic banking and finance sector, should responsive to small medium enterprises mitigating liability of smallness and newness. The factors mitigating the inherent liabilities associated with new entrepreneurial startups were found to be institutional support. Institutional support was also found to be an important factor of success for new startups. The primary focus of this study is to examine the critical role of Islamic Banking and Finance, expanding and facilitating entrepreneurial opportunities. This study draws on triple bottom line concept (people, planet and profit), by developing standards equivalent to triple bottom line reporting for Islamic banking and financial institutions, and disseminating independent and objective research to relevant stakeholders. This includes examining the potential positive or negative social impact of Islamic Banking and Finance on the financially sustainable and responsible community.

Sponsorship is a type of marketing or advertising that, when done correctly, can be very effective. Livin' by Mandiri, a mobile banking product that is accessible and has a target market of young people who need practicality, is one of Bank Mandiri's newest products. The purpose of this study was to know if sponsorship at the MPL ID Season 8 event influenced Livin' by Mandiri's brand awareness. Sponsorship and Brand Awareness are the variables used in this study. In this study, sponsorship has three dimensions: target audience reach, compatibility with the company's or brand's positioning, and message capacity. In this study, brand awareness has four dimensions: Unaware of Brand, Brand Recognition, Brand Recall, and Top of Mind. This study used quantitative research methods, and the population studied in this research is the MPL ID Season 8 audience, which has an average viewership 447,142 viewers. The Slovin formula was used to find the number of samples needed in this research. The data in this study indicates that sponsorship at the MPL ID Season 8 event has an effect on Livin' by Mandiri brand awareness, there is a sufficient connection between sponsorship and brand awareness, and there is a strong influence between sponsorship and brand awareness. Sponsorship merupakan salah satu cara pemasaran atau periklanan yang sangat efektif jika dilakukan dengan tepat. Salah satu produk terbaru dari Bank Mandiri adalah Livin’ by Mandiri, produk mobile banking yang dapat diakses dan mempunyai target pasar anak-anak muda yang membutuhkan kepraktisan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah sponsorship pada event MPL ID Season 8 berpengaruh terhadap brand awareness Livin’ by Mandiri. Variabel pada penelitian ini adalah Sponsorship dan Brand awareness. dimensi sponsorship adalah Target Audience Reach, Compatibility with the Company’s or Brand’s Positioning & Message Capacity. Dimensi brand awareness yaitu Unaware of Brand, Brand Recognition, Brand Recall, Top of Mind. Peneliti menggunakan metode penelitian kuantitatif dan populasi penelitian ini adalah penonton MPL ID Season 8 yang mempunyai average viewers sebanyak 447,142 penonton. Untuk menentukan jumlah sampel yang dibutuhkan, peneliti menggunakan rumus Slovin. Hasil data pada penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh dari sponsorship pada event MPL ID Season 8 terhadap brand awareness Livin’ by Mandiri. Dari data penelitian ini, ditemukan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang cukup antara sponsorship dan brand awareness, dan terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan antara sponsorship dan brand awareness.

E-banking is seen as the newest delivery channel for banking services in many developed countries and is believed to have a significant impact on the bank market. E-banking is providing numerous opportunities for banks and non-bank financial institutions to add a low cost distribution channel to their existent distribution channels. Little research on factors influencing the adoption of e-banking has been implemented in countries with very high economic growth rates (such as Vietnam) that are emerging as new potential markets. Thus, this study has, based on an extensive literature review on e-banking benefits for both banks and their customers and relevant theories on innovation adoption, proposed alternative models (including both moderator and mediating effects) of e-banking intention to use by customers in Vietnam. Furthermore, a set of model hypotheses presenting relationships among factors influencing e-banking intention to use have been set up. Practical implications and future studies were also discussed.

Müasir bazar iqtisadiyyatı şəraitində bankların fəaliyyəti və banklar vasitəsilə əhaliyə təqdim olunan məhsullar və xidmətlər öz aktuallığını artırır. Aydın məsələdir ki, müştəri qismində çıxış edən fiziki və hüquqi şəxslər öz tələbatlarını təmin etmək məqsədilə bank məhsullarını əldə etməyə cəhd edirlər. Bu səbəbdən də hər bir müştəri banka müraciət etməmişdən daha öncə ona lazım olan bank məhsulu haqqında məlumat toplamağa başlayır. Belə olan təqdirdə isə banklar öz məhsulları haqqında olan bütün informasiyaları ictimaiyyətə açıq formada paylaşmalıdırlar ki, əhalinin ayrı-ayrı kütlələri bank məhsulları ilə əlaqədar bütün informasiyaları tam şəkildə əldə edə bilsinlər. Tədqiqat işinin əsas məqsədi bank məhsullarının mahiyyəti, eləcə da bank məhsul və xidmətlərinin keyfiyyətinin tədqiq olunmasıdır. Açar sözlər: bank, bank məhsulu, kredit kartlar Nurlan Zakir Shukurov Quality of banking products and services Abstract In a modern market economy, the activities of banks and the products and services provided to the population through banks are becoming increasingly important. It is clear that individuals and legal entities acting as customers try to obtain banking products to meet their needs. For this reason, each customer begins to gather information about the banking product he needs before applying to the bank. In this case, banks should share all information about their products in an open manner so that certain sections of the population have full access to all information related to banking products. The main purpose of the research is to study the essence of banking products, as well as the quality of banking products and services. Key words: bank, banking product, credit cards

The objective of this thesis is to show different types of investment opportunities that a small investor has on a standard banking market. Subsequently they are analyzed from both theoretical and practical aspects. The reader will be able to see pros and cons of e.g. traditional saving products, mutual funds and many others. Services will be among other assessed from an international perspective. The main intention of this analysis is to find such financial products, to which a small investor has access and that can be recommended as a meaningful investment.

Increasing climate awareness, the Paris Agreement urging institutions to enable the economic transition toward sustainability and the looming possibility of environmental regulations are challenges facing the banking sector today. This study however chooses to see opportunities in a changing retail banking environment, investigating what green banking products customers want their bank to provide and how the introduction of green banking product might impact customer loyalty. The research was conducted through a mixed-method approach consisting of both quantitative and qualitative elements during the time-period of January to June 2019. 504 individuals engaged in the survey conducted and their answers were both analysed through the development of a customer loyalty framework and with theoretical support from the literature gathered. The results indicated a positive attitude towards green banking products while also not showing a clear preference or desirability for a specific product. Additionally, this study found a positive relationship between the introduction of green banking products and increased customer loyalty. The study concluded that green banking products suggestively have an advantageous position in the evolving financial sector, more specifically in a number of years.
Ökande klimatmedvetenhet, Parisavtalet som uppmuntrar institutioner att möjliggöra en ekonomisk övergång till hållbarhet och hägrande möjligheter till tuffare miljöregler, är utmaningar som banksektorn står inför idag. Denna studie väljer emellertid att se möjligheter i en förändrad bankmiljö, genom att undersöka vilka gröna bankprodukter kunderna vill att deras bank ska tillhandahålla och hur införandet av gröna bank-produkter kan påverka kundlojalitet. Undersökningen genomfördes genom en mixed-method approach som bestod av både kvantitativa och kvalitativa element under perioden januarijuni 2019. 504 personer deltog i undersökningen som genomfördes och deras svar analyserades både genom utvecklingen av ett ramverk för kundlojalitet och med teoretiskt stöd från den samlade litteraturen. Resultaten indikerar en positiv inställning till gröna bankprodukter, men visar inte heller en tydlig preferens eller önskemål om en viss produkt. Dessutom fann denna studie ett positivt förhållande mellan introduktionen av gröna bankprodukter och ökad kundlojalitet. Undersökningen drog slutsatsen att gröna bankprodukter sannolikt har en fördelaktig position inom den utvecklande finanssektorn, mer specifikt inom ett antal år.

This thesis deals with the situation in financing of tertiary education from both governmental and student perspective. Its objective is to find an efficient system of student support with focus on student loans that would be applicable in the Czech Republic, would promote an equal access to higher education also to students from lower socio-economic classes and at the same time would enable to increase cost-sharing in Czech tertiary education. The designed concept of student loans is based on best practices from selected European countries (Netherlands, United Kingdom and Hungary) in the background of proposed reform of Czech tertiary education. Finally, the concept is validated in a case study dealing with financing of the International Management master's programme at the University of Economics, Prague.

This study examines the use of databases to improve marketing techniques and customer segmentation in lending institutions. Specifically, this study examines the use of products and services by agricultural customers, and then determines the relationship between the use of those products and services with farm business characteristics. Information is also obtained on the interest rate sensitivity of the producers and correlated with farm business characteristics. The importance of technology and strategic alliances and other influences in the decision making process are determined after survey analysis. The survey was sent to producers who had some type of loan. Respondents from this study used an average of 3.2 loan products and 7.6 services for a total of 10.8 loans and services. Only 1 percent of the respondents indicated that they did not have a personal checking account. Twelve percent of the respondents indicated that they did not use a credit card. Only 16 percent of the respondents indicated that they used leasing services. Investment products did not have a high percentage of use. Thirty-three percent indicated they were using certificates of deposit, while only 21 percent indicated the use of money market funds, and 30 percent indicated the use of mutual funds. Thirty-seven percent indicated they were using IRAs. However, most of the respondents were using some form of insurance. Three-fourths of the respondents were using life insurance, while only 21 percent indicated that they did not possess disability insurance. Other services were also analyzed in this study. Only 15 percent of the respondents indicated that they were utilizing estate planning services, despite the 67 percent of respondents who were greater than age 41 and the 58 percent of respondents with greater than $500,000 in assets. Seventeen percent of the respondents were using an appraisal service. Due to the lower levels of usage for the investment products, this study focused on the relationship between farm characteristics and the investment products. This study showed that a relationship existed between farm and non-farm income with IRA usage. iii Only farm income had a relationship with money market fund usage and mutual fund usage. While, the use of estate plans was related to asset level. The analysis on interest rate sensitivity was determined by the amount an interest rate would have to decrease for a producer to switch lending institutions. The producers who were found to be less interest rate sensitive were those who had lower farm and non-farm incomes, lower asset levels, lower education levels, higher debt-to-asset ratio, and those who owned a computer. This implies that these are the more loyal customers to an institution or perhaps these producers have fewer opportunities to switch institutions. Producers in this study indicated that when selecting a lender/service provider, a competitive interest rate (76 percent of respondents) and the institution being a dependable source of credit (75 percent) was important. Knowledge of agriculture was also very important (69 percent of respondents). Internet banking and educational seminars rated as the characteristics that were least important, 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively. However, in the decision making process, lenders (69 percent of respondents), accountants (53 percent), and veterinarians (38 percent) were shown to be very important. The spouse/partner has considerable influence also on decision making. Sixty-seven percent of the respondents indicated that the spouse/partner had a considerable influence on investment decision, while sixty-one percent of the respondents indicated that the spouse/partner had a considerable influence on credit decisions. Five specific recommendations were made to the institutions following this study. These recommendations include: use of technology, institutional use of databases, use of influencers, and targeting and segmenting the marketplace.
Master of Science

The thesis deals with the offer of banking products in the Czech Republic and targets the offer of Volksbank CZ, resp. Sberbank CZ. Part of the paper describes the forming of the banking sector in the Czech Republic and the current situation. The paper also deals with the change of Volksbank CZ to Sberbank CZ. The analysis of the offer of banking products and costs related to accounts compares the position of certain products of Volksbank CZ with those of competition in the period from October 2012 to January 2013.

The aim of this study is to understand and analyse the relationship between corporate governance (CG) and banking governance (BG) in Conventional and Islamic banking systems. The reason for choosing this topic was because the regulations and banking systems within Conventional banks are differently in comparison to Islamic banks, which means that their corporate governance and banking governance are influenced by different mechanisms and therefore regulated differently. Since Conventional banks stands for a small amount of Islamic banks in their markets and Islamic countries do have Conventional banks in theirs, made this topic a good case study. Furthermore is Sweden a Conventional country where they don’t offer Islamic financial services and the UK is a Conventional country where they do, which was an interesting fact since both of them are European countries with similar regulations. The author of this thesis chose qualitative, semi-structured interviews, where six persons: three from Sweden and three from the UK stood for answers toward their banking systems. Since these respondents were standing on a high position within their organizations did they have the knowledge needed to answer the questions asked. The result showed that the relationship between CG and BC in Conventional and Islamic banking systems have an impact in the way different types of banks operate. Identifying the Conventional and Islamic banks differences and assessing on how the Corporate Governance and Banking Governance do operate solves the complexity in the system. Based on the findings, countries that are applying the Conventional system need to expand their regulations and mechanisms so that other systems could operate without a need for changes in their own. They also need to expand their knowledge, where the population needs to be familiar with other banking systems and services as well.

В тезах розглянуто удосконалення методики оцінки собівартості банківських продуктів як складової системи управлінського обліку банку
In theses examined improvement methodology for assessing the cost of banking products as part of managerial accounting bank

В тезах автором розглянуто науково-методичний підхід всановлення ціни на банківські продукти.
In the thesis the author deals with scientific and methodical approach vsanovlennya prices of banking products.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.