Relevant bibliographies by topics / Threat Forecasting

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Threat Forecasting'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 2 June 2025
Last updated: 31 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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Krutika Dwarka Naidu, Dr. Syed Irfan Ali, Sujal Shyam Hasoriya, and Sujal Ganvir. "Threat Foresight: Web Threat Detection and Forecasting Trends and Insights." International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology 12, no. 2 (2025): 129–33. https://doi.org/10.32628/ijsrst25122209.

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The increasing sophistication and frequency of web threats necessitate advanced analytics and forecasting techniques to mitigate potential cyber risks. Traditional security measures, while effective to some extent, often struggle to adapt to evolving cyber threats. The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative AI (GenAI) has introduced novel methodologies for detecting, analyzing, and predicting web-based threats. This review paper explores the landscape of web threat analytics, evaluates traditional and modern forecasting techniques, and examines the role of AI and GenAI in enhanc
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Aleksandrowicz, Tomasz. "Forecasting terrorist threats as an element of the anti-terrorist system." Terroryzm, no. 6 (6) (October 9, 2024): 405–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.4467/27204383ter.24.028.20248.

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The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a poss
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Aleksandrowicz, Tomasz. "Prognozowanie zagrożeń terrorystycznych jako element systemu antyterrorystycznego." Terroryzm, no. 6 (6) (October 9, 2024): 127–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.4467/27204383ter.24.018.19406.

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The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting terrorist threats and its role in the state’s anti-terrorist system. The aim of the article is to present the methodology of forecasting terrorist threats at three levels: strategic, operational and tactical. The text presents basic methods, techniques and tools used in threats forecasting. The main thesis of the article is the statement that a properly prepared forecast allows to determine with a high degree of probability the possibility of a terrorist threat, however, in such a case we are always dealing with the assessment of such a poss
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Kervyn, Nicolas, Susan Fiske, and Vincent Yzerbyt. "Forecasting the Primary Dimension of Social Perception." Social Psychology 46, no. 1 (2015): 36–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335/a000219.

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The Stereotype Content Model (SCM) posits two fundamental dimensions of intergroup perception, warmth and competence, predicted by socio-structural dimensions of competition and status, respectively. However, the SCM has been challenged on claiming perceived competition as the socio-structural dimension that predicts perceived warmth. The current research improves by broadening warmth’s predictor (competition) to include both realistic and symbolic threat from Integrated Threat Theory (Study 1). We also measure two components of the warmth dimension: sociability and morality. Study 2 tests new
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Egho-Promise, Ehigiator, George Asante, Hewa Balisane, et al. "Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Predictive CyberSecurity: Enhancing Threat Forecasting and Vulnerability Management." International Journal of Innovative Research in Advanced Engineering 12, no. 02 (2024): 68–79. https://doi.org/10.26562/ijirae.2025.v1202.01.

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The rise in sophisticated cyber threats demands advanced cybersecurity methods that surpass traditional rule-based approaches. This study explores the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance predictive cybersecurity, enabling more accurate threat forecasting and effective vulnerability management. The research assesses various AI modelssuch as neural networks, decision trees, and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in their ability to predict cyber threats. Employing a quantitative methodology, the study utilizes historical data from cybersecurity sources, threat intelligence feeds,
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McCaul, Eugene W., Steven J. Goodman, Katherine M. LaCasse, and Daniel J. Cecil. "Forecasting Lightning Threat Using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations." Weather and Forecasting 24, no. 3 (2009): 709–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008waf2222152.1.

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Abstract Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time- and space-dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threats, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to
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Korystin, Oleksandr, Igor Tsiupryk, and Oleksandr Nikolaiev. "FORECASTING THE RISKS OF UNCONTROLLED DEFORESTATION IN UKRAINE." Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 10, no. 4 (2024): 261–70. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2024-10-4-261-270.

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The forestry sector in Ukraine is currently confronted with a multitude of challenges, including the repercussions of climate change, ecological issues, economic challenges, and the consequences of military actions initiated by the Russian Federation, which have caused extensive damage to forests across the country. This highlights the necessity for research aimed at assessing threats and risks in the forestry sector, as well as evaluating the institutional capacity to ensure the sustainable development of the industry. The research was conducted in accordance with the mandate of the Temporary
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Regens, James L., Nicholas A. Mould, Carl J. Jensen, and David N. Edger. "Terrorism-Centric Behavior Recognition and Adversarial Threat Forecasting." International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 29, no. 2 (2016): 328–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2015.1083317.

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Boucher, Kathryn L., Robert J. Rydell, and Mary C. Murphy. "Forecasting the experience of stereotype threat for others." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 58 (May 2015): 56–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2015.01.002.

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Tkachuk, Natalia. "Analytical Component in Institutional Providing of Ukraine National Security Risks and Threats Assessment." Information Security of the Person, Society and State, no. 28-30 (December 15, 2020): 38–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.51369/2707-7276-2020-(1-3)-5.

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Today, in many developed countries, the analytical component in the institutional support of risk assessment and threats to national security is implemented by situational centers (SCs) at the strategic level through scientific-analytical and predictive support of the national security threat planning process. On the other hand, the common feature of such domestic situational centers is that they were created and continue to function mainly for operational management in the «manual» mode. Whereas the solution of the tasks of strategic analysis and forecasting in the field of national security
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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Hunter, Bruce Allan. "A geospatial tool for assessing potential wildland fire risk in central Texas." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2005. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4870/.

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Wildland fires in the United States are not always confined to wilderness areas. The growth of population centers and housing developments in wilderness areas has blurred the boundaries between rural and urban. This merger of human development and natural landscape is known in the wildland fire community as the wildland urban interface or WUI, and it is within this interface that many wildland fires increasingly occur. As wildland fire intrusions in the WUI increase so too does the need for tools to assess potential impact to valuable assets contained within the interface. This study presents
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Шарий, О. М. "Прогнозування загроз у фінансово–економічній безпеці підприємства". Master's thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/81937.

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Hutson, Mark Duffield. "Three Essays on Macroeconomic Forecasting." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3719383.

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<p> My dissertation consists of three essays on econometric forecasting and forecast evaluation. Each essay contributes to the literature in its own way. In the first essay, I employ a common qualitative analysis framework on a widely-available consensus forecast. I evaluate the consensus forecast's performance using the Predictive Failure statistic. I find that the survey respondents provide statistically significant directional forecasts or signals. The second essay evaluates forecasts of a prominent energy policy model. This includes analysis of the forecasts, developing a rival forecasting
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Cheng, Xin. "Three essays on volatility forecasting." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2010. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/1183.

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Laxmidhar, Mohammad, and Dnyanesh Sarang. "Exploratory Investigation of Sales Forecasting Process and Sales Forecasting System : Case Study of Three Companies." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-718.

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<p>The future has always caught the attention of the human being. The thirst of exploring the future and to know the unknown has driven the human being toward innovativeness.</p><p>Companies are expanding their operations worldwide since the past few decades. Profit growth coupled with an effective strategy has become the primary need of global companies. Research in this area has given rise to optimization of the supply chain for higher profitability. Considering the overall strategy the company needs to plan production well in advance. The operational planning comes in picture at this moment
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Kwon, Joonsuk. "Three Essays on Multi-step forecasting with Partial Least Squares." Thesis, Cergy-Pontoise, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019CERG1035.

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Dans cette thèse, nous comparons les prévisions IMS, DMS et PLS à plusieurs horizons, en nous concentrant sur les propriétés combinatoires des PLS. Nous nous appuyons sur un article intéressant de Franses &amp; Legerstee (2010), qui suggère comment la méthode dite des moindres carrés partiels (PLS) peut être considérée, dans le contexte de la prévision sur plusieurs étapes, comme une technique intermédiaire entre IMS et DMS. En fait, plutôt qu’un «intermédiaire», nous aimons considérer le PLS comme une forme de combinaison de IMS et de DMS.Cette thèse comprend quatre chapitres.Au chapitre 1, n
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Zhai, Yusheng. "Time series forecasting competition among three sophisticated paradigms /." Electronic version (Microsoft Word), 2005. http://dl.uncw.edu/etd/2005/zhaiy/yushengzhai.html.

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Chatagny, Florian. "Three essays on tax revenue budgeting and forecasting." Rennes 1, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011REN1G019.

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La présente thèse de doctorat propose une analyse du processus de budgétisation des recettes fiscales. En particulier, elle propose une analyse économique à la fois théorique et empirique des erreurs de budgétisation des recettes fiscales dans les cantons suisses. Sur le plan théorique, une analyse en termes de transmission stratégique de l’information permet de montrer qu’une asymétrie d’information en faveur d’un ministre des finances au sein d’un cabinet gouvernemental pouvait induire une manipulation des montants de recettes fiscales budgétisés à des fins politiques. Sur le plan empirique,
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Smoliński, Dominik. "Application of data warehousing and data mining in forecasting cancer diseases threats." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Avdelningen för programvarusystem, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-2943.

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Multidimensional analysis, trends analysis, summaries and drill-downs as data warehousing methods of choice provided rich, valuable and detailed perspective of cancer threats in terms of virtually any dimension covered by data. These allowed to model the risk of cancer including age, race, sex and survival chances among others, to spot most dangerous and incident cancers, revealed how little survival chances and treatment efficiency increased over last 30 years and how little early diagnosis was improved, presented trends and changes in them and changes in cancer risk related to place of resid
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Rangel, Jose Gonzalo. "Stock market volatility and price discovery three essays on the effect of macroeconomic information /." Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2006. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3220417.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2006.<br>Title from first page of PDF file (viewed September 7, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 125-130).
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Books on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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Hough, M. Threat and risk analysis in the context of strategic forecasting. Institute for Strategic Studies, University of Pretoria, 2008.

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Hough, M. Threat and risk analysis in the context of strategic forecasting. Institute for Strategic Studies, University of Pretoria, 2008.

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Hamerman, Warren J. Economic breakdown and the threat of global pandemics. Executive Intelligence Review, 1985.

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Aeronautics, United States Congress House Committee on Science Subcommittee on Space and. The threat of near-earth asteroids: Hearing before the Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics, Committee on Science, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, October 3, 2002. U.S. G.P.O., 2003.

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1970-, Kagan Frederick W., ed. While America sleeps: Self-delusion, military weakness, and the threat to peace today. St. Martin's Press, 2000.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Homeland Security. Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. WMD terrorism: Assessing the continued homeland threat : hearing before the Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence of the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, second session, November 15, 2012. U.S. Government Printing Office, 2013.

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Nuttney, Andrew. The outlook for European teleinsurance 1999-2002: Threats and opportunities. Datamonitor, 1998.

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United States. Federal Highway Administration and Government Finance Research Center, eds. Transit and Highway Revenue and Improvement Forecasting Templates: THRIFT user's handbook. The Administration, 1987.

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Hubbard, Douglas W. Pulse: The new science of harnessing Internet buzz to track threats and opportunities. Wiley, 2011.

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Spanger-Siegfried, Erika. Encroaching tides: How sea level rise and tidal flooding threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast communities over the next 30 years. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014.

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Book chapters on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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Albrecht, Eduardo. "Europe." In Political Automation. Oxford University Press, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1093/9780197696989.003.0005.

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Abstract This chapter includes interviews with Sarah Chander, Senior Policy Advisor with European digital rights organization EDRi, and Caterina Rodelli, EU Policy Analyst for the digital rights nonprofit organization Access Now. The chapter looks at the role and activities of these organizations, including their work on the EU’s AI Act—which regulates certain uses of AI in government, for example banning social scoring. In Chander’s interview she discusses the threat to privacy stemming from certain technical details in the EU’s new regulation. Rodelli explains the purpose of the #ProtectNotS
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Bhatnagar, Vaibhav, and Bhoomika Batra. "Estimating Blockchain Using Time-Series Forecasting ARIMA." In Rising Threats in Expert Applications and Solutions. Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1122-4_50.

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Basellini, Ugofilippo, and Carlo Giovanni Camarda. "A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions." In Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_6.

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Abstract Mortality forecasting has recently received growing interest, as accurate projections of future lifespans are needed to ensure the solvency of insurance and pension providers. Several innovative stochastic methodologies have been proposed in most recent decades, the majority of them being based on age-specific mortality rates or on summary measures of the life table. The age-at-death distribution is an informative life-table function that provides readily available information on the mortality pattern of a population, yet it has been mostly overlooked for mortality projections. In thi
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Sangle, Ashok S., and Prapti D. Deshmukh. "Forecasting Solar Energy on Time Frame: A Review." In Rising Threats in Expert Applications and Solutions. Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1122-4_45.

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Csík, A., and G. Bálint. "Extending the Danube Flood Forecasting System With the Use of Meteorological Ensembles." In Threats to Global Water Security. Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5_31.

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Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier, Søren Kjæ rgaard, Marius D. Pascariu, et al. "Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy." In Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_7.

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Abstract In the last three decades, considerable progress in mortality forecasting has been achieved, with new and more sophisticated models being introduced. Most of these forecasting models are based on the extrapolation of past trends, often assuming linear (or log-linear) development of mortality indicators, such as death rates or life expectancy. However, this assumption can be problematic in countries where mortality development has not been linear, such as in Denmark. Life expectancy in Denmark experienced stagnation from the 1980s until the mid-1990s. To avoid including the effect of t
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Mengelkamp, H. T. "Calibration of an Atmospheric/Hydrological Model System for Flood Forecasting in the Odra Watershed." In Threats to Global Water Security. Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2344-5_29.

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Fishbein, Warren H. "Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to ‘Foresight for Prevention’ in an Age of Complex Threats." In Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230316911_15.

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Hema Priya, N., S. M. Adithya Harish, N. Ravi Subramanian, and B. Surendiran. "Covid-19: Comparison of Time Series Forecasting Models and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN." In Rising Threats in Expert Applications and Solutions. Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-1122-4_59.

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Turowski, Marian, Oliver Neumann, Lisa Mannsperger, et al. "Managing Anomalies in Energy Time Series for Automated Forecasting." In Energy Informatics. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48649-4_1.

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AbstractThe increasing number of recorded energy time series enables the automated operation of smart grid applications such as load analysis, load forecasting, and load management. However, to perform well, these applications usually require clean data that well represents the typical behavior of the underlying system. Unfortunately, recorded time series often contain anomalies that do not reflect the typical behavior of the system and are, thus, problematic for automated smart grid applications such as automated forecasting. While various anomaly management strategies exist, a rigorous compa
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Conference papers on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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M, Balaji, and Vijayarani J. "Enhanced Threat Forecasting in Smart Intrusion Detection Systems with Attention CNN-BiLSTM." In 2025 8th International Conference on Trends in Electronics and Informatics (ICOEI). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/icoei65986.2025.11013260.

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Tymchenko, Inna V., Diana O. Krysinska, and Vitalii V. Hulevets. "Satellite Monitoring of the Effects of Hostilities on Especially Valuable Coastal Areas of the Dnipro-Buh Estuary." In 8th International Congress "Environment Protection. Energy Saving. Sustainable Environmental Management". Trans Tech Publications Ltd, 2025. https://doi.org/10.4028/p-2cbzui.

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Assessing the impact of military actions is an important task that allows for evaluating the extent of damage, forecasting environmental restoration measures, and making decisions regarding risk and threat management. The purpose of the work is to develop a procedure for applying satellite monitoring to assess the impact of military actions on natural complexes. The study presents available tools for identifying fires and damage to forest stands, steppe areas, and arable land, as well as determining their area and nature. Using the proposed satellite monitoring procedure, an assessment of the
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Akuchie, Christian. "Novel External Corrosion Prevention Equipment Lifecycle Management Approach." In CONFERENCE 2023. AMPP, 2023. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2023-19415.

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Abstract This paper presents an external corrosion prevention equipment lifecycle management approach that aligns with and supports the transition of equipment from a reactive maintenance approach to a reliability-centered and conditioned-based maintenance approach. The lifecycle assessment is comprised of deterministic (remaining life estimate), probabilistic (probability of failure) and fitness for service approaches. The process output is a prioritized and optimized management plan for a set of equipment critical in the external corrosion threat prevention on mainline piping, facility pipin
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Song, Fengmei. "Overall Mechanisms of High pH and Near-Neutral pH SCC, Models for Forecasting SCC Susceptible Locations, and Simple Algorithms for Predicting High pH SCC Crack Growth Rates." In CORROSION 2008. NACE International, 2008. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2008-08129.

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Abstract Issues The current practice of determining pipeline stress corrosion cracking (SCC) susceptible locations, for pipe segments where In-Line Inspection (ILI) tools or hydrotests are not applicable, is based on known characteristics of past SCC sites. These characteristics include the type, age, and conditions of the coating; the type of steel and weld; the surface treatment, age, manufacturer, corrosion status and past SCC experience of the pipe; the type of soil, wet/dry cycles, and ground water chemistry including pH, ionic species such as Na+, Ca2+ and Cl−, molecular species such as
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Ali, Dhia Ben, Mohamed Belaoued, and Samir Dawaliby. "Anticipating Cyber Threats: Deep Learning Approaches for DDoS Attacks Forecasting." In 2024 8th Cyber Security in Networking Conference (CSNet). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/csnet64211.2024.10851731.

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VS, Balaji, Anirudh Ganapathy PS, and Sangeetha K. "Forecasting and Analysing Cyber Threats with Graph Neural Networks and Gradient Based Explanation for Feature Impacts." In 2024 Global Conference on Communications and Information Technologies (GCCIT). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/gccit63234.2024.10861933.

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Coa, Kizzi La, and Patrick Hosein. "LSTM-Based Models for Earthquake Forecasting on Three Boundaries of the Caribbean Plate." In 2024 IEEE International Conference on Technology Management, Operations and Decisions (ICTMOD). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/ictmod63116.2024.10878133.

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Parker, Keith, Trey Johnston, Alfonso Garcia, Dale Lindemuth, Stephen B. Gibson, and Christophe Baete. "Laying the Foundation for an Engineered and Integrated Approach to Pipeline External Corrosion Protection." In CONFERENCE 2022. AMPP, 2022. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2022-17962.

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Abstract With a growing and aging liquids asset base covering over 17,000 pipeline miles throughout the U.S. and Canada, as well as Enbridge’s move to a High-Reliability Organization (HRO), the Enbridge External Corrosion Prevention (ECP) team is working on a shift from a compliance and time-driven routine maintenance program to a predictive forecasting strategy. Coupled with advanced diagnostics and modeling, such an approach can provide useful information for Long-Range Forecasting (LRF). Utilizing a comprehensive in-line inspection (ILI) and direct examination (DE) program with state-of-the
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Jaragh, Amer, Shabbir Safri, Patrick Teevens, et al. "Mandatory Integrity Reassessment of Gravity-Fed Crude Oil Pipelines Using MP-ICDA in Kuwait." In CORROSION 2021. AMPP, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2021-16269.

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Abstract In this paper, a reassessment using the NACE International Standard Practice SP0116-2016 for Multiphase Flow – Internal Corrosion Direct Assessment (MP-ICDA) protocol was conducted for the first time on three pipelines which were originally assessed in 2011 using the NACE International SP0208-2008 Liquid Petroleum ICDA (LP-ICDA) methodology. The LP-ICDA and MP-ICDA methodologies were compared in the reassessment. The paper discusses how the new data and the previous LP-ICDA 2011 data was integrated. Notwithstanding, the pipeline did not undergo any significant changes since the previo
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Kumhar, Bhupchand, Antima Saxena, and Mayank Nagar. "Advanced Threat Intelligence Forecasting using Machine Learning Algorithms." In 2023 IEEE International Conference on ICT in Business Industry & Government (ICTBIG). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ictbig59752.2023.10456004.

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Reports on the topic "Threat Forecasting"

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Fisher, Andmorgan, Taylor Hodgdon, and Michael Lewis. Time-series forecasting methods : a review. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/49450.

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Time-series forecasting techniques are of fundamental importance for predicting future values by analyzing past trends. The techniques assume that future trends will be similar to historical trends. Forecasting involves using models fit on historical data to predict future values. Time-series models have wide-ranging applications, from weather forecasting to sales forecasting, and are among the most effective methods of forecasting, especially when making decisions that involve uncertainty about the future. To evaluate forecast accuracy and to compare among models fitted to a time series, thre
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Iyer, Ananth V., Thomas Brady, Steven R. Dunlop, et al. Forecasting Freight Logistic Needs and INDOT Plans. Purdue University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317372.

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This project focused on forecasting freight logistics needs and developing and analyzing capacity plans for INDOT to consider. The forecast timeframe ranges from the 2020 to 2045; the commodities considered are those used in the FHWA framework. We considered five SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenarios that are in sync with those used by the IPCC (International Protocol for Climate Change). We also use the IPCC forecasts of world GDP and FHWA forecasts to develop county-level freight forecasts by commodity. A survey of industry participants, primarily in manufacturing, suggests that Ind
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3

Clark, Todd E., Matthew V. Gordon, and Saeed Zaman. Forecasting Core Inflation and Its Goods, Housing, and Supercore Components. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202334.

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This paper examines the forecasting efficacy and implications of the recently popular breakdown of core inflation into three components: goods excluding food and energy, services excluding energy and housing, and housing. A comprehensive historical evaluation of the accuracy of point and density forecasts from a range of models and approaches shows that a BVAR with stochastic volatility in aggregate core inflation, its three components, and wage growth is an effective tool for forecasting inflation's components as well as aggregate core inflation. Looking ahead, the model's baseline projection
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Hajdini, Ina. Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202203r.

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The paper considers a New Keynesian framework in which agents form expectations based on a combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is shown to be consistent with all three empirical facts on consensus inflation forecasts. However, while mis-specified forecasts can be both sufficient and necessary to match all three facts, myopia alone is neither. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-based Bayesian methods, y
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Hernandez-Lasheras, Jaime, Ali Aydogdu, and Baptiste Mourre. Intercomparison of glider assimilation in the different analysis and forecasting systems. EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d4.9.

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The present deliverable is a continuation of deliverable D4.21, in which we presented the first steps in the design and preparation of different reanalysis simulations assimilating glider data. We here show the assessment and intercomparison of CMCC MedFS and SOCIB WMOP systems experiments. We have performed, for each system, three different experiments, running a one-year simulation during 2017. We compare a free-run simulation without data assimilation (FREE) and two reanalyses including assimilation: one considering only the generic data sources included in each operational system (NOGLID)
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Abed El Rahman, Hassoun. Report on gaps in the European Ocean Observing and Forecasting System. EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d1.9.

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The European Ocean Observing and Forecasting System (EOOFS) plays a pivotal role in understanding, monitoring, forecasting, and managing the complex dynamics and resources of Europe's Seas. It serves as a critical interdisciplinary system for addressing a myriad of challenges, from climate change impacts to marine resources management. However, to ensure its continued effectiveness, it is essential to identify and address the gaps within this system and provide actionable recommendations for improvements at short- and long-term. Therefore, this document serves as a baseline that can guide the
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Nosek, Barbara E. Cost Forecasting for Equipment during Initial Outfitting: A Comparative Analysis Among Three Military Services and the Private Healthcare Industry. Defense Technical Information Center, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada420772.

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Ortiz, Verónica, Rosa Rodriguez, and Joaquin Tintoré. Lessons learnt from the EuroSea public engagement activities. EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d8.5.

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The overall goal of this report is to analyse the EuroSea itinerant exhibition as a case study of public engagement activity. Aimed at the general public, this modular and itinerant exhibition raises awareness about the EuroSea project while also promoting ocean literacy and highlighting the importance of ocean observing and forecasting. Public engagement plays a crucial role in Horizon 2020, the EU's research and innovation funding program. It aims to bridge the gap between researchers and society, ensuring that their work is aligned with societal needs and values. This involves bringing toge
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Dumais, Robert E., John W. Raby, Yansen Wang, Yasmina R. Raby, and David Knapp. Performance Assessment of the Three-Dimensional Wind Field Weather Running Estimate - Nowcast and the Three-Dimensional Wind Field Air Force Weather Agency Weather Research and Forecasting Wind Forecasts. Defense Technical Information Center, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada573289.

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10

Hooke, William. Three Policies Shape Enterprise Value: Minor Adjustments Could Enhance the Societal Benefit. American Meteorological Society, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/three-policies-shape-enterprise-value-2022.

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This AMS Policy Study examines explicitly the role that public policy plays in determining the sum societal value of Earth Observations, Science, and Services (OSS) as well as the allocation of that value and the costs of OSS production across society. It examines three policy frameworks of quite different origin, purview, and standing. The first is the 2003 Fair Weather Report developed by the National Academy of Sciences. That policy focuses on collaboration. The second is the 2017 Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act enacted by the U.S. Congress. It focuses on innovation. The thi
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