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1
Nedostrelova, L. V., and V. V. Chumachenko. "Time distribution of thunderstorms observed at Odesa AMSC at the beginning of the 21st century." Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal, no. 27 (June 30, 2021): 16–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.27.2021.02.
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The article presents the results of the research of thunderstorm activity at Odesa AMSC for the period of 2000-2019. Under conditions of intense warming, thunderstorm activity responds to the changes of temperature, humidity, radiation regime and atmospheric composition. Modern climate changes that are characterized by rising air temperatures have a decisive influence on the conditions under which dangerous weather phenomena are formed, thus monitoring of the thunderstorms formation in Ukraine is of great importance.
The research includes the analysis of synoptic conditions of thunderstorm activity formation such as air-mass processes, frontal activity, and studies daily and daytime variability of the number of thunderstorm cases for the given period. The results of everyday meteorological observations of atmospheric phenomena conducted by Odesa AMSC within the period of 2000-2019 were used as input data to determine the characteristics of thunderstorm activity over city of Odesa. In order to identify the presence, time and duration of thunderstorm activity aviation weather diaries AV-6 were also reviewed. Certain synoptic materials were used to analyze the types of phenomena. Such materials include interactive database ARMsyn, surface synoptic charts for the periods of observation before and during the thunderstorms.
It was established that during the period under study air-mass thunderstorms were formed in 370 cases of thunderstorm activity observed at the given observation post. Frontal thunderstorms occur less often: 241 cases over 20 years. The largest number of such thunderstorms is cold front thunderstorms amounting to 129 cases. 75 of them were identified as occlusion front thunderstorms. The least frequent were warm front thunderstorms – only 37 cases constituting 15% of the total number of frontal formations.
During the studied period a total number of 620 thunderstorm cases was recorded, 195 of which are dry thunderstorms. Considerable attention is paid to the daily and daytime variability of thunderstorm cases number recorded by Odesa AMSC. With relation to the daily variation, more thunderstorms are observed during daytime amounting to 393 cases, 130 of which are dry thunderstorms. Night thunderstorms amount to 227 cases, 65 of which are dry thunderstorms. With relation to daytime distribution, more thunderstorms were detected in the afternoon.
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Morgenstern, Deborah, Isabell Stucke, Georg J. Mayr, Achim Zeileis, and Thorsten Simon. "Thunderstorm environments in Europe." Weather and Climate Dynamics 4, no. 2 (May 25, 2023): 489–509. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-489-2023.
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Abstract. Meteorological environments favorable for thunderstorms are studied across Europe, including rare thunderstorm conditions from seasons with climatologically few thunderstorms. Using cluster analysis on ERA5 reanalysis data and EUCLID (European Cooperation for Lightning Detection) lightning data, two major thunderstorm environments are found: wind-field thunderstorms, characterized by increased wind speeds, high shear, strong large-scale vertical velocities, and low CAPE values compared to other thunderstorms in the same region, and mass-field thunderstorms, characterized by large CAPE values, high dew point temperatures, and elevated isotherm heights. Wind-field thunderstorms occur mainly in winter and more over the seas, while mass-field thunderstorms occur more frequently in summer and over the European mainland. Several sub-environments of these two major thunderstorm environments exist. Principal component analysis is used to identify four topographically distinct regions in Europe that share similar thunderstorm characteristics: the Mediterranean, Alpine–central, continental, and coastal regions, respectively. Based on these results it is possible to differentiate lightning conditions in different seasons from coarse reanalysis data without a static threshold or a seasonal criterion.
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CHAUDHURI, SUTAPA. "CHAOTIC GRAPH THEORY APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) PATTERNS REQUIRED FOR THE GENESIS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS." Advances in Complex Systems 10, no. 03 (September 2007): 413–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525907001215.
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Severe thunderstorms are a manifestation of deep convection. Conditional instability is known to be the mechanism by which thunderstorms are formed. The energy that drives conditional instability is convective available potential energy (CAPE), which is computed with radio sonde data at each pressure level. The purpose of the present paper is to identify the pattern or shape of CAPE required for the genesis of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata (22°32′N, 88°20′E) confined within the northeastern part (20°N to 24°N latitude, 85°E to 93°E longitude) of India. The method of chaotic graph theory is adopted for this purpose. Chaotic graphs of pressure levels and CAPE are formed for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. Ranks of the adjacency matrices constituted with the union of chaotic graphs of pressure levels and CAPE are computed for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The results reveal that the rank of the adjacency matrix is maximum for non-thunderstorm days and a column with all zeros occurs very quickly on severe thunderstorms days. This indicates that CAPE loses connectivity with pressure levels very early on severe thunderstorm days, showing that for the genesis of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata short, and therefore broad, CAPE is preferred.
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Mohiduddin, Md, Samshad Nowreen, Md Forhad Uddin, and Mallik Akram Hossain. "A geographical analysis of thunderstorms in southern Bangladesh." National Geographical Journal of India 67, no. 3 (September 30, 2021): 308–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.48008/ngji.1779.
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Thunderstorm is one of the extreme devastating natural disasters, which causes death, injuries and adverse loss in agriculture, housing structure and domestic animals during the period of pre-monsoon and monsoon. Bangladesh is vulnerable to thunderstorm disasters due to its location and weather conditions. Rural people are severely affected by a thunderstorm. For this research, necessary data were collected from secondary as well as primary sources. Thunderstorm related information was randomly gathered from the 150 affected family members and close relatives. The study demonstrated that the working people especially farmers and school going students were severely affected. The research also identified impacts of thunderstorms on humans, types of damage and monetary loss. In terms of thunderstorm induced casualty, the number of death was higher than other casualties in the study area. This research also revealed that above 67 % of people succumbed to death by the thunderstorms which damaged crops, households, animals and trees. People in the study area also suffered from physical damage, for example, injuries to ears, eyes, and body. More than 37% of people faced hearing problems due to strikes of thunderstorms. The study also identified the risk factors responsible for the thunderstorms, such as lack of knowledge about a thunderstorm, outdoor activities, diurnal, and locational variation. Policymakers and planners will find insights from this research to mitigate the impact of thunderstorm disasters in rural Bangladesh.
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Huryn, Steven, William Gough, Ken Butler, and Tanzina Mohsin. "An Evaluation of Thunderstorm Observations in Southern Ontario Using Automated Lightning Detection Data." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54, no. 9 (September 2015): 1837–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0089.1.
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AbstractHigh-impact weather events, such as thunderstorms and their associated hazards, are aspects of a changing climate that are likely to have an adverse effect on society. Southern Ontario is Canada’s most populated region as well as the region of Canada that receives the most thunderstorms. Before completing climatological studies of thunderstorms in southern Ontario, it is important to determine whether historical thunderstorm data are reliable. Archived thunderstorm data are available from eight 24-h-staffed weather stations across southern Ontario. The data may be subject to observer bias. This study compared the manual observations of thunderstorms with automated data from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network. It was found that the data that are based on the manual observations are reliable enough that any significant trends in thunderstorm occurrence over time should be apparent. Because of the small-scale nature of thunderstorms, however, the data may only be valid for small distances (up to 10 km) around each weather station. A diurnal bias was also discovered, with manual thunderstorm observations being slightly better at night.
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Raupach, Timothy H., Andrey Martynov, Luca Nisi, Alessandro Hering, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius. "Object-based analysis of simulated thunderstorms in Switzerland: application and validation of automated thunderstorm tracking with simulation data." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 10 (October 27, 2021): 6495–514. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021.
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Abstract. We present a feasibility study for an object-based method to characterise thunderstorm properties in simulation data from convection-permitting weather models. An existing thunderstorm tracker, the Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm, was applied to thunderstorms simulated by the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (AR-WRF) weather model at convection-permitting resolution for a domain centred on Switzerland. Three WRF microphysics parameterisations were tested. The results are compared to independent radar-based observations of thunderstorms derived using the MeteoSwiss Thunderstorms Radar Tracking (TRT) algorithm. TRT was specifically designed to track thunderstorms over the complex Alpine topography of Switzerland. The object-based approach produces statistics on the simulated thunderstorms that can be compared to object-based observation data. The results indicate that the simulations underestimated the occurrence of severe and very large hail compared to the observations. Other properties, including the number of storm cells per day, geographical storm hotspots, thunderstorm diurnal cycles, and storm movement directions and velocities, provide a reasonable match to the observations, which shows the feasibility of the technique for characterisation of simulated thunderstorms over complex terrain.
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Kaur, Lovedeep, Dr Amardeep Singh, and Dr Navdeep Kanwal. "Thunderstorm Nowcasting in India: A Survey." INTERANTIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 08, no. 008 (August 10, 2024): 1–2. http://dx.doi.org/10.55041/ijsrem37026.
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Abstract Thunderstorm is a major threat to life. In India it is a major disaster which causes loss of life and property every year. It is a meteorological phenomenon occurs in different parts of India which includes heavy rainfall, strong wind, hailstorm, dust storm or lightning. The earlier prediction of thunderstorms is crucial for public safety and awareness. Thunderstorm prediction is essential for public safety that’s why precision and accuracy in predicting thunderstorms is very important. Thunderstorm is a phenomenon which occurs due to formation of convection cells and the lifetime of one convection cell is less than an hour so nowcasting or short term forecasting is recommended for thunderstorms in which the model predicts the initiation, development and direction of thunderstorms sub-hourly. Indian Meteorological department uses satellites that are INSAT-3DR (74°E), INSAT-3D (84°E) & Kalpana-1 (72.4°E) operationally for forecasting. Approximately 200 Agro-Automated Weather Station (Agro- AWS), 806 Automatic weather stations, 1382 Automatic Rain gauges, 83 lightning sensors along with 63 Pilot balloon upper air observation stations serve as the backbone of weather observation services of IMD throughout the country. In addition IMD has 39 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) well distributed across the country to monitor severe weather events. Due to advancement in technology, the thunderstorm nowcasting techniques also evolved. Now a days , radar based techniques like TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking and Nowcasting), satellite based techniques, Numerical weather prediction, machine learning and deep learning techniques play a vital role in nowcasting. The study also discuss about the challenges faced by meteorologists during thunderstorm nowcasting. Key Words: Thunderstorm, Weather Prediction, Nowcasting
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Avotniece, Zanita, Agrita Briede, Maris Klavins, and Svetlana Aniskevich. "Remote Sensing Observations of Thunderstorm Features in Latvia." Environmental and Climate Technologies 21, no. 1 (December 1, 2017): 28–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rtuect-2017-0014.
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Abstract Thunderstorms are the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in Latvia in the summer season, and the assessment of their characteristics is essential for the development of an effective national climate and weather prediction service. However, the complex nature of convective processes sets specific limitations to their observation, analysis and forecasting. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse thunderstorm features associated with severe thunderstorms observed in weather radar and satellite data in Latvia over the period 2006–2015. The obtained results confirm the applicability of the selected thunderstorm features for thunderstorm nowcasting and analysis in Latvia. The most frequent features observed on days with thunderstorm were maximum radar reflectivities exceeding 50 dBZ and the occurrence of overshooting tops and tilted updrafts, while the occurrence of gravity waves, V-shaped storm structures and small ice particles have been found to be useful indicators of increased thunderstorm severity potential.
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MANOHAR, G. K., and A. P. KESARKAR. "Climatology of thunderstorm activity over the Indian region : II. Spatial distribution." MAUSAM 55, no. 1 (January 19, 2022): 31–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v55i1.854.
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Thunderstorms play important roles in many areas of information about earth-atmosphere relationship. Inspite of this awareness of importance of thunderstorms, it is noted that studies about thunderstorms over India received little attention in the past. Latest (IMD, 1999) climatological monthly data of number of thunderstorm days (Thn), rainy days (Tnr), and rainfall amount (Trr) for 276 Indian observatory stations are analyzed, over 11 geographic regions comprising India, to examine relationship between these parameters. Analysis of Thn and Tnr data sets showed that in the premonsoon season major part of India is strongly dominated by frequent and widespread thunderstorms but with occasional rainy days. However, in the monsoon season on account of very large increase in the rainy days over the thunderstorm days, the Thn-Tnr relationship is reversed. The climatological feature of India in the premonsoon season is noted as a characteristic of cumulonimbus regime of continental convection, and the one in the monsoon season is termed as cumulonimbus regime of monsoonsal convection. The prominence of monsoonal convective regime is therefore very important in deciding the performance of Indian southwest monsoon. The analysis between Trr and Thn was carried out over 11 geographic regions of India in the four seasons of the annual period. Results pertaining to monsoon season showed that the contribution of thunderstorms to rainfall is highest among the other three seasons. It is inferred that thunderstorm’s rain contribution to monsoonal rainfall is significant.
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Litta, A. J., Sumam Mary Idicula, and U. C. Mohanty. "Artificial Neural Network Model in Prediction of Meteorological Parameters during Premonsoon Thunderstorms." International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 2013 (December 23, 2013): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/525383.
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Forecasting thunderstorm is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent nonlinearity of their dynamics and physics. Accurate forecasting of severe thunderstorms is critical for a large range of users in the community. In this paper, experiments are conducted with artificial neural network model to predict severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata during May 3, 11, and 15, 2009, using thunderstorm affected meteorological parameters. The capabilities of six learning algorithms, namely, Step, Momentum, Conjugate Gradient, Quick Propagation, Levenberg-Marquardt, and Delta-Bar-Delta, in predicting thunderstorms and the usefulness for the advanced prediction were studied and their performances were evaluated by a number of statistical measures. The results indicate that Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm well predicted thunderstorm affected surface parameters and 1, 3, and 24 h advanced prediction models are able to predict hourly temperature and relative humidity adequately with sudden fall and rise during thunderstorm hour. This demonstrates its distinct capability and advantages in identifying meteorological time series comprising nonlinear characteristics. The developed model can be useful in decision making for meteorologists and others who work with real-time thunderstorm forecast.
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Fedoniuk, V. V., M. A. Fedoniuk, and A. M. Pavlus. "Study of thunderstorm activity in Volyn Region and in Ukraine using the data of Blitzortung online resource." Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal, no. 28 (December 14, 2021): 16–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.28.2021.02.
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The article contains the results of statistical and graphical analysis of thunderstorm activity in Ukraine and within Volyn Region, in particular, following the study of the dynamic maps archive available at the online resource Blitzortung.org (lightnings and thunderstorms in real time). It describes the principles and results of activities of Blitzortung.org, a community of lightning direction sensors owners and users, and presents the developed algorithm of the methodology of reading dynamic maps available at this resource.
Regional analysis of the archival maps on the website Blitzortung.org for 2008-2019 for the territory of Volyn Region made it possible to establish the following changes of the thunderstorm activity dynamics: the total number of thunderstorm days more than doubled (from 30 to 68.3 days on average); the number of thunderstorms increased in April (it was a rare phenomenon earlier); the number of thunderstorms increased significantly in May, for some years the number of thunderstorm days in May reached certain summer months (June and July); most thunderstorms are of frontal origin, storm fronts come from the west, north and southwest. The number of frontal thunderstorms tends to increase, therefore indicating increased atmospheric instability and the number of natural meteorological phenomena associated with such instability; the average monthly number of thunderstorm days in Volyn Region also increased for all months of the year with no exception.
The analysis of storm activity within the whole territory of Ukraine during the period of 2018-2019 indicated the presence of clear regional features and differences. The increase in thunderstorm activity is observed in the western (50-100%) and southern (15-50%) regions of the country, and partly in the north. The number of thunderstorm days in the eastern part of Ukraine is close to the climatic normal. At the same time, the analysis needs to be clarified and detailed throughout the whole network of meteorological stations of Ukraine whose data can be compared with the results of the study of archival maps available at Blitzortung.org.
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Carlaw, Lee B., Ariel E. Cohen, and Jaret W. Rogers. "Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment of Convection during the North American Monsoon across Central and Southern Arizona." Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 2 (February 13, 2017): 361–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0098.1.
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Abstract This paper comprehensively analyzes the synoptic and mesoscale environment associated with North American monsoon–related thunderstorms affecting central and southern Arizona. Analyses of thunderstorm environments are presented using reanalysis data, severe thunderstorm reports, and cloud-to-ground lightning information from 2003 to 2013, which serves as a springboard for lightning-prediction models provided in a companion paper. Spatial and temporal analyses of lightning strikes indicate thunderstorm frequencies maximize between 2100 and 0000 UTC, when the greatest frequencies are concentrated over higher terrain. Severe thunderstorm reports typically occur later in the day (between 2300 and 0100 UTC), while reports are maximized in the Tucson and Phoenix metropolitan areas. Composite analyses of the synoptic-scale patterns associated with severe thunderstorm days and nonthunderstorm days during the summer using the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset are presented. Severe thunderstorm cases tend to be associated with a stronger midlevel anticyclone and deep-layer moisture over portions of the southwestern United States. By September, severe weather patterns tend to associate with a midlevel trough along the Pacific coast. Specific parameters associated with severe thunderstorms are analyzed across the Tucson and Phoenix areas, where severe weather reporting is more consistent. Greater convective available potential energy, low-level lapse rates, and downdraft convective available potential energy are associated with severe thunderstorm (especially severe wind) environments compared to those with nonsevere thunderstorms, while stronger effective bulk wind differences (at least 15–20 kt, where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) can be used to distinguish severe hail environments.
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Pineda, Nicolau, and Oriol Rodríguez. "ERA5 Reanalysis of Environments Conducive to Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in Catalonia." Atmosphere 14, no. 6 (May 26, 2023): 936. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14060936.
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In the climate change context, wildfires are an increasing hazard in the Mediterranean Basin, especially those triggered by lightning. Although lightning activity can be predicted with a reasonable level of confidence, the challenge remains in forecasting the thunderstorm’s probability of ignition. The present work aims to characterise the most suitable predictors to forecast lightning-ignited wildfires. Several ERA5 parameters were calculated and compared for two different samples, thunderstorm episodes that caused a wildfire (n = 961) and ordinary thunderstorms (n = 1023) that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) in the 2006–2020 period. Lightning wildfires are mostly associated with dry thunderstorms, characterised by: weak-to-moderate Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE, 150–1100 J kg−1), significant Dew Point Depression at 850 hPa (DPD850, 3.3–10.1 °C), high Most-Unstable Lifted Condensation Level (MULCL, 580–1450 m) and steep 500–700 hPa Lapse Rate (LR, −7.0–−6.3 °C). Under these conditions, with relatively dry air at lower levels, thunderstorms tend to be high-based, the rain evaporating before reaching the ground and lightning occurring without significant rainfall. Specifically forecasting the probability of LIW occurrence would be of great assistance to the forest protection tactical decision-making process, preparing for “dry” thunderstorm days where multiple ignitions can be expected.
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Nugraha, Alfa, Yoga Satria Putra, and Riza Adriat. "Analisis Potensi Terjadinya Thunderstorm Menggunakan Metode SWEAT di Stasiun Meteorologi Supadio." PRISMA FISIKA 9, no. 1 (April 12, 2021): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/pf.v9i1.45380.
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Penelitian mengenai potensi terjadinya thunderstorm menggunakan data radiosonde di stasiun meteorologi Supadio telah dilakukan. Data radiosonde yang digunakan merupakan data sounding pada April 2018 hingga Maret 2019 yang dititikberatkan pada indeks SWEAT. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan indeks SWEAT tertinggi 295,2 untuk 00Z dan 288,7 untuk 12Z. Sedangkan untuk musim hujan indeks SWEAT tertinggi 307 untuk 00Z dan 269,2 unuk 12Z. Pada musim kemarau 00Z terdapat 12 hari berpotensi terjadi thunderstrorm, sedangkan pada 12Z terdapat 24 hari berpotensi terjadi thunderstorm. Pada musim hujan terdapat 6 hari berpotensi terjadi thunderstrorm pada 00Z dan 17 hari berpotensi terjadi thunderstorm pada 12Z.
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Mohee, Faizul M., and Craig Miller. "Climatology of Thunderstorms for North Dakota, 2002–06." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49, no. 9 (September 1, 2010): 1881–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jamc2400.1.
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Abstract Radar and surface thunderstorm data in North Dakota were investigated to obtain the climatology of thunderstorms in the state. A life cycle analysis for the individual storm cells between 2002 and 2006 was carried out, and it was found that June and July were the peak months, late afternoon to early morning was the peak time for thunderstorms, the average lifetime of storm cells was 23.6 min, the average gust wind speed was 16.5 m s−1, the average track length was 21.8 km, and the average movement speed was 16.4 m s−1. The average movement of storm cells varied with months, and the storms moved toward the north, the northeast, and the east. It was also demonstrated that there were 19–35 thunderstorm days each year in North Dakota and that, of these, 9–14 thunderstorm days each year were associated with high speed winds. Severe thunderstorms composed 1.7% of all the thunderstorms in 2002–06. The most intense thunderstorm in North Dakota between 2002 and 2006 was associated with a 5-yr-high wind speed of 31.4 m s−1. It was also found that the longer-lasting storms were the stronger storms.
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Zhang, Ailin, Shi Zhang, Xiaoda Xu, Haibin Zhong, and Bo Li. "Variation Characteristics of the Wind Field in a Typical Thunderstorm Event in Beijing." Applied Sciences 12, no. 23 (November 24, 2022): 12036. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app122312036.
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The understanding of wind field characteristics during thunderstorms is key to structural design for resistance to thunderstorms. In this paper, the directional thunderstorm wind model is adopted to analyze the characteristics of vertical variations of the wind field in a typical thunderstorm event in the Beijing urban area, based on the measured data. First, the longitudinal and lateral fluctuating wind speed components were decoupled and the change of direction was obtained. Then, variation of the wind speed, wind direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral length scale, and gust factor with the height and time were studied. The measured thunderstorm wind spectrum and the coherence function of horizontal longitudinal reduced turbulent fluctuations were analyzed and compared with empirical models. The results showed that the wind speed profile presented an obvious “nose shape” near the peak wind speed. The longitudinal turbulence integral scale was larger than the lateral one. The Von Karman spectrum is relatively effective in fitting the thunderstorm wind spectrum. Compared with synoptic winds, the gust factor during the pass of thunderstorm wind is larger, so it seems necessary to consider the influence of thunderstorm wind in engineering design.
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Lõhmus, Mare, Tomas Lind, Laura MacLachlan, Agneta Ekebom, Björn Gedda, Pia Östensson, and Antonios Georgelis. "Combined Exposure to Birch Pollen and Thunderstorms Affects Respiratory Health in Stockholm, Sweden—A Time Series Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 10 (May 11, 2022): 5852. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19105852.
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Background: Thunderstorm asthma is a term used to describe surges in acute respiratory illnesses following a thunderstorm and is often attributed to an intense exposure to aeroallergens. Several episodes of thunderstorm asthma have been observed worldwide; however, no such cases have been described in Sweden. In Sweden, the most prominent exposure to air-borne pollen occurs during the blooming of the birch. We aimed to explore the associations between respiratory health and the combined exposure to thunderstorms and birch pollen. Methods: We investigated the association between the daily numbers of outpatient visits due to respiratory cases and the combined exposure to thunderstorms and birch pollen during the period of 1 May–31 September in 2001–2017, in Stockholm County, Sweden, by using time series analysis with log linear models. Results: We detected noticeable increases in the number of outpatient visits on both the same day (max 26%; 95% CI 1.16–1.37) and the day after (max 50%; 95% CI 1.32–1.70) the occurrence of a thunderstorm, when the concentrations of birch pollen and the number of lightning discharges were within the highest categories. Conclusions: It is possible that co-exposure to heavy thunderstorms and high concentrations of birch pollen affects the respiratory health of the Stockholm population. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study addressing the thunderstorm-related respiratory illnesses in Sweden and the effects of birch pollen. Our study may be important for future public health advice related to thunderstorm asthma.
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TYAGI, AJIT. "Thunderstorm climatology over Indian region." MAUSAM 58, no. 2 (November 27, 2021): 189–212. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v58i2.1204.
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Thunderstorm is a severe weather phenomenon, the impact of which is being increasingly felt by all the sectors of society. In this study attempt has been made to develop thunderstorm climatology over Indian region based on latest representative climatological data. In all, data of 450 observatories comprising of 390 IMD observatories, 50 IAF observatories, six Bangladesh observatories, two Pakistan observatories, and one each in Nepal and Sri Lanka have been analysed. Inclusion of climatological data of Indian Air Force and Bangladesh has helped in developing representative climatology over Indian region. The study has brought out higher (100-120 days) annual frequency of thunderstorm as compared to those given by earlier studies (80-100 days). The highest annual frequency (100-120 days) is observed over Assam and Sub Himalayan West Bengal in the east and Jammu region in the north. The lowest frequency (less than 5 days) is observed over Ladakh region. In the plains Gangetic West Bengal and Bangladesh record between 80 and 100 days of thunderstorm annually. Kerala records highest (80-100 days) thunderstorm frequency of thunderstorm over peninsula. Udhampur observatory (132 days) in Jammu sub-division records highest number of thunderstorms in the country followed by Kumbhigram (Silchar) observatory (129 days) in south Assam and Hasimara (123 days) in Sub Himalayan West Bengal. In the plains Saurashtra and Kutch record lowest number (less than 15 days) of thunderstorm in the country.
Thunderstorms are primarily short lived mesoscale weather phenomena. Existing synoptic network of part time observatories have limitations in recording all the occurrences of thunderstorms at the observatory and adjoining areas. Inclusion of data from such observatories results in lower frequency of the event and vitiates climatology. Efforts have been made in this study to develop thunderstorm climatology by using quality data of full time current weather (Airport) observatories, class I and selected class II IMD observatories. Since number of full time observatories in most of the sub divisions is few, the study is not able to bring out finer spatial variation of thunderstorm activity with in sub-divisions. Thunderstorm is a high impact severe weather event, which affects all the sectors of the society. Therefore, both from operational and climatological point of view, there is urgent need to establish at least one full time current weather observatory in each district to ensure proper reporting of all thunderstorm occurrences and to build district level thunderstorm climatology in the country.
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Rigo, T., N. Pineda, and J. Bech. "Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 9 (September 8, 2010): 1881–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1881-2010.
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Abstract. Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest duration corresponding to the maturity stage (approximately 80% of the total time).
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Al-KHULAIFAWI, Imad Abdulridha. "Analysis of Thunderstorm Activity in Iraq and Turkey." NEWS of the Ural State Mining University, no. 4 (December 15, 2023): 164–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.21440/2307-2091-2023-4-164-169.
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Relevance of the work. The article deals with the analysis of thunderstorm activity in Iraq and Turkey. A comparison of thunderstorm activity in the areas of location of 5 weather stations located in different areas on the territory of the two states was carried out. Analysis of the accumulated data showed that the frequency of thunderstorms over different regions of the world largely depends on their geographical location (topography), distance from the sea and time of year. The purpose of the work. The aim was to identify the features of the spatial distribution of trends in interannual variability and to determine the best recorded months of thunderstorm activity during the year over the territory of Iraq and Turkey. Methods of work. The study was conducted based on the analysis of daily (archived) meteorological data on thunderstorms over 10 years at five meteorological stations. Results. Based on historical data of daily meteorological observations made over a ten-year period at three meteorological stations in various climate zones in Iraq and at two meteorological stations in various climate zones in Turkey, this study analyzes thunderstorm activity. According to the data, March and April have the highest frequency of thunderstorms, with 55% of them occurring in Iraq’s northern highland region. However, the study found that in Turkey, April and May had the highest frequency of thunderstorms, with 54% of them occurring in Anatolia’s southeast because of its elevation above sea level. Conclusions. In the northern and northeastern regions of Iraq and the southeastern region of Turkey, intense thunderstorm activity was observed. March and April saw the highest annual frequency of thunderstorms.
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Tkachev, Ivan, Roman Vasilyev, and Elena Belousova. "Cluster analysis of lightning discharges: based on Vereya-MR network data." Solar-Terrestrial Physics 7, no. 4 (December 20, 2021): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/stp-74202109.
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Monitoring thunderstorm activity can help you solve many problems such as infrastructure facility protection, warning of hazardous phenomena associated with intense precipitation, study of conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms and the degree of their influence on human activity, as well as the influence of thunderstorm activity on the formation of near-Earth space. We investigate the characteristics of thunderstorm cells by the method of cluster analysis. We take the Vereya-MR network data accumulated over a period from 2012 to 2018 as a basis. The Vereya-MR network considered in this paper is included in networks operating in the VLF-LF range (long and super-long radio waves). Reception points equipped with recording equipment, primary information processing systems, communication systems, precision time and positioning devices based on global satellite navigation systems are located throughout Russia. In the longitudinal-latitudinal thunderstorm distributions of interest, the dependence on the location of recording devices might be manifested. We compare the behavior of thunderstorms on the entire territory of the Russian Federation with those in the Baikal natural territory. We have established the power of thunderstorms over the Baikal region is lower. The daily variation in thunderstorm cells we obtained is consistent with the data from other works. There are no differences in other thunderstorm characteristics between the regions under study. This might be due to peculiarities of the analysis method. On the basis of the work performed, we propose sites for new points of our own lightning location network, as well as additional methods of cluster analysis.
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Tkachev, Ivan, Roman Vasilyev, and Elena Belousova. "Cluster analysis of lightning discharges: based on Vereya-MR network data." Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika 7, no. 4 (December 20, 2021): 91–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/szf-74202109.
Full textAbstract:
Monitoring thunderstorm activity can help you solve many problems such as infrastructure facility protection, warning of hazardous phenomena associated with intense precipitation, study of conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms and the degree of their influence on human activity, as well as the influence of thunderstorm activity on the formation of near-Earth space. We investigate the characteristics of thunderstorm cells by the method of cluster analysis. We take the Vereya-MR network data accumulated over a period from 2012 to 2018 as a basis. The Vereya-MR network considered in this paper is included in networks operating in the VLF-LF range (long and super-long radio waves). Reception points equipped with recording equipment, primary information processing systems, communication systems, precision time and positioning devices based on global satellite navigation systems are located throughout Russia. In the longitudinal-latitudinal thunderstorm distributions of interest, the dependence on the location of recording devices might be manifested. We compare the behavior of thunderstorms on the entire territory of the Russian Federation with those in the Baikal natural territory. We have established the power of thunderstorms over the Baikal region is lower. The daily variation in thunderstorm cells we obtained is consistent with the data from other works. There are no differences in other thunderstorm characteristics between the regions under study. This might be due to peculiarities of the analysis method. On the basis of the work performed, we propose sites for new points of our own lightning location network, as well as additional methods of cluster analysis.
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Robert, James J, Igbo, and Nkechinyere E. "The Mechanism of Thunderstorms and its Environmental Effects (A Review)." Asian Journal of Basic Science & Research 04, no. 03 (2023): 55–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.38177/ajbsr.2022.4308.
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This study is a review of the mechanism of thunderstorm and its environmental effects. Thunderstorm is a natural phenomenon. Its occurrence in the Earth’s atmosphere has been from time immemorial. Thunderstorm has been described as a natural battery as it constitutes both negative and positive parts. This natural phenomenon displays a beautiful signature (lightning) and rumbling noise (thunder) in the sky. Thunder is caused by lightning. The heat energy associated with lightning heats up the surrounding air molecules very fast and causes these air molecules to expand rapidly, and also contract rapidly as it cools off; this rapid expansion and contraction produce sound waves(thunder). The occurrence of thunderstorm is always associated with a great deal of damage to humans, infrastructures, and plants. This damage ranges from loss of lives, collapse of crops and economic trees, infrastructures, especially power grid lines which often threw the affected areas into total darkness. Turbulent weather conditions arising from thunderstorm has a huge negative impact on the aviation industries around the globe, as cases of cancellation of flights are abound and occasional plane crashes. A recent research study has attributed the increasing trend of occurrence of thunderstorm over the continent of Africa to increasing surface temperature; meaning that the continent of Africa will most likely experience more of the devastating effects of thunderstorms. To drastically minimize these negative of effects of thunderstorms, accurate prediction of thunderstorms and early warning, keeping to thunder and lightning safety measures, and mitigation of drivers of climate change must be considered
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Collier, C. G., and R. B. E. Lilley. "Forecasting thunderstorm initiation in north‐west Europe using thermodynamic indices, satellite and radar data." Meteorological Applications 1, no. 1 (March 1994): 75–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1469-8080.1994.tb00008.x.
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A climatology of the occurrence of thunderstorms over north‐west Europe is described based upon an analysis of synoptic data, polar‐orbiting satellite infrared imagery and high‐resolution sferics data. The close relationship of thunderstorm initiation to orography, storm movements and the location of maximum storm intensity are illustrated. A number of instability indices derived from radiosonde data obtained from stations throughout north‐west Europe are objectively assessed both singularly and in combination. It is recommended that a forecast rule be used based upon taking the occurrence of a thunderstorm to be likely when any one of the indices indicates the occurrence of a thunderstorm. Additional methods of forecasting the location of thunderstorms using satellite data and techniques based upon the objective recognition of appropriate conceptual models are discussed. This leads to a proposed approach to a thunderstorm forecasting system to address the specific needs of operational hydrology.
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Du, Yangxingyi, Dong Zheng, Ruiyang Ma, Yijun Zhang, Weitao Lyu, Wen Yao, Wenjuan Zhang, Luobu Ciren, and Deqing Cuomu. "Thunderstorm Activity over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Indicated by the Combined Data of the FY-2E Geostationary Satellite and WWLLN." Remote Sensing 14, no. 12 (June 15, 2022): 2855. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14122855.
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Thunderstorm activity over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has important climatic effects and disaster impacts. Using the thunderstorm feature dataset (TFD) established based on the black body temperature (TBB) and cloud classification (CLC) products of the Fengyun-2E (FY-2E) geostationary satellite, as well as the lightning data of the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), the temporal and spatial distributions and some cloud properties of the thunderstorms over the QTP were analyzed. Approximately 93.9% and 82.7% of thunderstorms over the QTP occur from May to September and from 12 to 21 o’clock local time, and the corresponding peaks are in August and at 14:00, respectively. There are three centers featuring frequent thunderstorms in the southeast, south-central, and southwest regions of the QTP. The average thunderstorm cloud area (the region with TBB ≤ −32 °C) is 1.8 × 104 km2. Approximately 32.9% of thunderstorms have strong convective cells (SCCs) composed of areas with TBB ≤ −52 °C. The average number and area ratio of SCCs are 3.6 and 25.4%, respectively, and their spatial distribution is given. The average cloud area and the number and area ratio of SCCs of extreme-lightning thunderstorms (thunderstorms with the top 10% of lightning numbers) are approximately 30.0, 3.9, and 1.5 times those of normal thunderstorms. The spatial distribution of the thunderstorm activity is quite different from that of lightning activity given by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) over the northeastern and southwestern QTP, which may mean that the convection intensity, cloud structure, and charge structure of the thunderstorms over the QTP are different between different regions and seasons.
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Lee, Kwonmin, Hye-Sil Kim, and Yong-Sang Choi. "Effects of high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery on the predictability of tropical thunderstorms over Southeast Asia." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 10 (October 11, 2019): 2241–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2241-2019.
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Abstract. Tropical thunderstorms cause significant damage to property and lives, and a strong research interest exists in the advances and improvement of thunderstorm predictability by satellite observations. Using high-resolution (2 km and 10 min) imagery from the geostationary satellite, Himawari-8, recently launched over Southeast Asia, we examined the earliest possible time for the prediction of thunderstorms as compared to the potential of low-resolution (4 km and 30 min) imagery of the former satellite. We compared the lead times of high- and low-resolution imageries of 60 tropical thunderstorms that occurred in August 2017. These thunderstorms were identified by the decreasing trend in the 10.45 µm brightness temperature (BT11) by over 5 K per 10 min for the high-resolution imagery and 15 K per 30 min for the low-resolution imagery. The lead time was then calculated over the time from the initial state to the mature state of the thunderstorm, based on the time series of a minimum BT11 of thunderstorm pixels. The lead time was found to be 90–180 min for the high-resolution imagery, whereas it was only 60 min (if detectable) for the low-resolution imagery. These results indicate that high-resolution imagery is essential for substantial disaster mitigation owing to its ability to raise an alarm more than 2 h ahead of the mature state of a tropical thunderstorm.
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Kriesche, Bjoern, Reinhold Hess, and Volker Schmidt. "A point process approach for spatial stochastic modeling of thunderstorm cells." Probability and Mathematical Statistics 37, no. 2 (May 14, 2018): 472–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.19195/0208-4147.37.2.14.
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A POINT PROCESS APPROACH FOR SPATIAL STOCHASTIC MODELING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLSIn this paper we consider two different approaches for spatial stochastic modeling of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm cells are represented using germ-grain models from stochastic geometry, which are based on Coxor doubly-stochastic cluster processes. We present methods for the operationa lfitting of model parameters based on available point probabilities and thunderstorm records of past periods. Furthermore, we derive formulas forthe computation of point and area probabilities according to the proposed germ-grain models. We also introduce a conditional simulation algorithm in order to increase the model’s ability to precisely predict thunderstorm events. A systematic comparison of area probabilities, which are estimated from the proposed models, and thunderstorm records conclude the paper.
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Arora, Kopal, Kamaljit Ray, Suresh Ram, and Rajeev Mehajan. "The Role of Instability Indices in Forecasting Thunderstorm and Non-Thunderstorm Days across Six Cities in India." Climate 11, no. 1 (January 4, 2023): 14. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli11010014.
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Thunderstorms are one of the most damaging natural hazards demanding in-depth understanding and prediction. These convective systems form in an unstable environment which is quantitatively expressed in terms of instability indices. These indices are studied over six locations across the Indian landmass in an attempt to predict thunderstorm activity on any given day. A combination of multiple regression, logistic regression, and range analysis provides new insight into the prediction of these storms. A supervised machine learning-based logistic regression model is developed in this study for thunderstorm prediction over Patna and can be further extended for operational forecasting of Thunderstorms over the region. Critical thresholds for the instability indices are determined over the considered locations providing valuable insight into the domain of Thunderstorm prediction
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DiGangi, Elizabeth A., Michael Stock, and Jeff Lapierre. "Thunder Hours: How Old Methods Offer New Insights into Thunderstorm Climatology." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103, no. 2 (February 2022): E548—E569. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-20-0198.1.
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Abstract Lightning data are often used to measure the location and intensity of thunderstorms. This study presents 5 years of data from the Earth Networks Global Lightning Detection Network (ENGLN) in the form of thunder hours. A thunder hour is defined as an hour during which thunder can be heard from a given location, and thunder hours can be calculated for the entire globe. Thunder hours are an intuitive measure of thunderstorm frequency where the 1-h interval corresponds to the life-span of most thunderstorms, and the hourly temporal resolution of the data also represents long-lived systems well. Flash-density-observing systems are incredibly useful, but they have some drawbacks that limit how they can be used to quantify global thunderstorm activity on a climatological scale: flash density distributions derived from satellite observations must sacrifice a great deal of their spatial resolution in order to capture the diurnal convective cycle, and the detection efficiencies of ground-based lightning detection systems are not uniform in space or constant in time. Examining convective patterns in the context of thunder hours lends insight into thunderstorm activity without being heavily influenced by network performance, making thunder hours particularly useful for studying thunderstorm climatology. The ENGLN thunder hour dataset offers powerful utility to climatological studies involving lightning and thunderstorms. This study first shows that the ENGLN thunder hours dataset is very consistent with past measurements of global thunderstorm activity and the global electric circuit using only 5 years of data. Then, this study showcases thunder anomaly fields, designed to be analogous to temperature anomalies, which can be used to diagnose changes in thunderstorm frequency relative to the long-term mean in both time and space.
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Mäkelä, Antti, Pekka Rossi, and David M. Schultz. "The Daily Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Flash Density in the Contiguous United States and Finland." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 5 (May 2011): 1323–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3517.1.
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A method is developed to quantify thunderstorm intensity according to cloud-to-ground lightning flashes (hereafter ground flashes) determined by a lightning-location sensor network. The method is based on the ground flash density ND per thunderstorm day (ground flashes per square kilometer per thunderstorm day) calculated on 20 km × 20 km fixed squares. Because the square size roughly corresponds to the area covered by a typical thunderstorm, the flash density for one square defines a unit thunderstorm for the purposes of this study. This method is tested with ground flash data obtained from two nationwide lightning-location systems: the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the contiguous United States and the portion of the Nordic Lightning Information System (NORDLIS) in Finland. The distribution of daily ground flash density ND is computed for all of Finland and four 800 000 km2 regions in the United States (identified as western, central, eastern, and Florida). Although Finland and all four U.S. regions have median values of ND of 0.01–0.03 flashes per square kilometer per thunderstorm day—indicating that most thunderstorms produce relatively few ground flashes regardless of geographical region—the most intense 1% of the storms (as measured by the 99th percentiles of the ND distributions within each region) show much larger differences among regions. For example, the most intense 1% of the ND distributions is 1.3 flashes per square kilometer per thunderstorm day in the central U.S. region, but only 0.2 flashes per square kilometer per thunderstorm day in Finland. The spatial distribution of the most intense 1% of the ND distributions illustrates that the most intense thunderstorm days occur in the central United States and upper Midwest, which differs from the maxima of the average annual flash density NA and the number of thunderstorm days TD, both of which occur in Florida and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This method for using ND to quantify thunderstorm intensity is applicable to any region as long as the detection efficiency of the lightning-location network is high enough or known. This method can also be employed in operational forecasting to provide a quantitative measure of the lightning intensity of thunderstorms relative to climatology.
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Suparta, Wayan, and Wahyu Sasongko Putro. "Comparison of Tropical Thunderstorm Estimation between Multiple Linear Regression, Dvorak, and ANFIS." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 6, no. 2 (June 1, 2017): 149–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v6i2.648.
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Thunderstorms are dangerous and it has increased due to highly precipitation and cloud cover density in the Mesoscale Convective System area. Climate change is one of the causes to increasing the thunderstorm activity. The present studies aimed to estimate the thunderstorm activity at the Tawau area of Sabah, Malaysia based on the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Dvorak technique, and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). A combination of up to six inputs of meteorological data such as Pressure (P), Temperature (T), Relative Humidity (H), Cloud (C), Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), and Precipitation (Pr) on a daily basis in 2012 were examined in the training process to find the best configuration system. By using Jacobi algorithm, H and PWV were identified to be correlated well with thunderstorms. Based on the two inputs that have been identified, the Sugeno method was applied to develop a Fuzzy Inference System. The model demonstrated that the thunderstorm activities during intermonsoon are detected higher than the other seasons. This model is comparable to the thunderstorm data that was collected manually with percent error below 50%.
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MUKHERJEE, A. K., G. ARUNACHALAM, and D. K. RAKSHIT. "A study of Thunderstorms around Gauhati Airport." MAUSAM 15, no. 3 (March 10, 2022): 425–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v15i3.5557.
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Current weather observations of Gauhati Airport from 1955 to 1961 and radar observations of 1960 and 1961 have been analysed, Monthly frequency of days with thunder attains a maximum in May and remains practically steady during monsoon, During pre-monsoon, frequency of occurence of thunderstorms is highest during night and in monsoon and post-monsoon maximum frequency of thunderstorm occurs during afternoon, Analysis of radar observations reveals the profound influence of southern hills on the development of thunderstorms. During monsoon, thunderstorm activity follows closely the anabatic wind activity, No steering level could be found whose wind can be taken as guide for the movement of thunderstorms, However, during pre-monsoon, thunderstorms approach the station mostly from a westerly direction whereas during monsoon they come from south. In general, monsoon thunderstorms move slowly compared to pre-monsoon thunderstorms.
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Guo, Xiaoran, Jianping Guo, Tianmeng Chen, Ning Li, Fan Zhang, and Yuping Sun. "Revisiting the evolution of downhill thunderstorms over Beijing: a new perspective from a radar wind profiler mesonet." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 24, no. 14 (July 17, 2024): 8067–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8067-2024.
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Abstract. Downhill thunderstorms frequently occur in Beijing during the rainy seasons, leading to substantial precipitation. The accurate intensity prediction of these events remains a challenge, partly attributed to insufficient observational studies that unveil the thermodynamic and dynamic structures along the vertical direction. This study provides a comprehensive methodology for identifying both enhanced and dissipated downhill thunderstorms. In addition, a radar wind profiler (RWP) mesonet has been built in Beijing to characterize the pre-storm environment downstream of the thunderstorms at the foothill. This involves deriving vertical distributions of high-resolution horizontal divergence and vertical motion from the horizontal wind profiles measured by the RWP mesonet. A case study of an enhanced downhill thunderstorm on 28 September 2018 is carried out for comparison with a dissipated downhill thunderstorm on 23 June 2018, supporting the notion that a deep convergence layer detected by the RWP mesonet, combined with the enhanced southerly flow, favors the intensification of thunderstorms. Statistical analyses based on radar reflectivity from April to September 2018–2021 have shown that a total of 63 thunderstorm events tend to be enhanced when entering the plain, accounting for about 66 % of the total number of downhill thunderstorm events. A critical region for intensified thunderstorms lies on the downslope side of the mountains west to Beijing. The evolution of a downhill storm is associated with the dynamic conditions over the plain compared to its initial morphology. Strong westerly winds and divergence in the middle of troposphere exert a critical influence on the enhancement of convection, while low-level divergence may lead to dissipation. The findings underscore the significant role of an RWP mesonet in elucidating the evolution of a downhill storm.
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Sorokin, Aleksandr, and Vasiliy Dobrynin. "Method of studying infrasound waves from thunderstorms." Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika 8, no. 1 (March 25, 2022): 62–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/szf-81202208.
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The paper provides an overview of studies of infrasound signals from thunderstorms over a period of more than 30 years. We deal with several types of infrasound signals from thunderstorms detected at the ISTP SB RAS infrasound station Badary in Buryatia. Special attention is paid to signals arising during the rarefaction phase. A mechanism for generating signals of this type by converting the energy of the electrostatic field into fluctuations in the pressure field was proposed by Dessler in 1973. We propose a method for identifying thunderstorm infrasound signals of various types: 1 — signals from an expanding thermal lightning channel; 2 — signals with an electrostatic generation mechanism. Using infrasound signals recorded earlier at the station in Buryatia as an example, we discuss the validity of the thunderstorm cloud model and assess some parameters of the thunderstorm source of infrasound.
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Sorokin, Aleksandr, and Vasiliy Dobrynin. "Method of studying infrasound waves from thunderstorms." Solar-Terrestrial Physics 8, no. 1 (March 25, 2022): 62–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/stp-81202208.
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The paper provides an overview of studies of infrasound signals from thunderstorms over a period of more than 30 years. We deal with several types of infrasound signals from thunderstorms detected at the ISTP SB RAS infrasound station Badary in Buryatia. Special attention is paid to signals arising during the rarefaction phase. A mechanism for generating signals of this type by converting the energy of the electrostatic field into fluctuations in the pressure field was proposed by Dessler in 1973. We propose a method for identifying thunderstorm infrasound signals of various types: 1 — signals from an expanding thermal lightning channel; 2 — signals with an electrostatic generation mechanism. Using infrasound signals recorded earlier at the station in Buryatia as an example, we discuss the validity of the thunderstorm cloud model and assess some parameters of the thunderstorm source of infrasound.
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Bielec-Bąkowska, Zuzanna. "Thunderstorms and thunderstorm precipitations in southern Poland." Environmental & Socio-economic Studies 2, no. 3 (September 1, 2014): 33–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/environ-2015-0041.
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AbstractThis paper addresses spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of thunderstorms and related precipitation in southern Poland between 1951 and 2010. The analysis was based on thunderstorm observations and daily precipitation totals (broken down into the few ranges) from 15 meteorological stations. It was found that precipitation accompanied an overwhelming majority of thunderstorms. The most frequent range of thunderstorm precipitation totals was 0.1–10.0 mm which accounted for 60% of all values while precipitation higher than 20.0 mm accounted only for ca. 8%. During the study period, long-term change in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation within a certain range displayed no clear-cut trends. Exceptions included: 1) an increase in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation in the lowest range of totals (0.1–10.0 mm) at Katowice, Tarnów, Rzeszów and Lesko and decrease at Mt. Kasprowy Wierch, 2) an increase in the range 10.1–20.0 mm at Zakopane and 20.1–30.0 mm at Opole, 3) a decrease of the top range (more than 30.0 mm) at Mt. Śnieżka. It was found that the heaviest thunderstorm precipitation events, i.e. totalling more than 30 mm, and those events that covered all or most of the study area, occurred at the time of air advection from the southern or eastern sectors and a passage of atmospheric fronts.
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Ioshpa, Alexandr R., and Imad Abdulridha Jasim Al-Khulaifawi. "Analysis of Thunderstorm Activity in Iraq." UNIVERSITY NEWS. NORTH-CAUCASIAN REGION. NATURAL SCIENCES SERIES, no. 2 (218) (June 23, 2023): 75–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.18522/1026-2237-2023-2-75-80.
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Systematic monitoring of the recurrence of thunderstorms over various regions of the world began in 1856, after the creation of the World Meteorological Organization. Analysis of the accumulated data showed that the frequency of thunderstorms over different regions of the world depends significantly both on their geographical location and on time. At the same time, the patterns of spatial distribution of trends in interannual variability of thunderstorm activity over the territory of Iraq are currently not well understood. This study analyzed thunderstorm activity from archival data from daily meteorological observations over a 3,0-year period at three meteorological stations located in different climatic zones of Iraq. The analysis showed that the greatest frequency of thunderstorms occurs in April and March, of which the months of March are higher. 44.8 % is in the northern mountainous part of Iraq.
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Onwuadiochi, I. C., O. S. Egede, and A. C. Udeogu. "Assessment of the Impacts of Thunderstorm on Flight Operations at Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja, Lagos State, Nigeria." Journal of Geographical Research 6, no. 1 (February 10, 2023): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.30564/jgr.v6i1.5057.
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The inefficiency of the aviation industry and the persistent rise in aviation hazards have been linked to weather phenomena. As a result, researchers are looking for better solutions to the problem. The study examined the impact of thunderstorms on flight operations at Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Lagos. The data on thunderstorms and flight operations were sourced from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) respectively. In order to meet the research target, descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and charts) and inferential statistics (Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) and Regression) were used. The significance level for all inferential analyses was set at 5% (0.05). The study revealed that 77.4% of thunderstorms occurred during the rainy season (April-October) while 22.6% occurred during the dry season (November-March). It also revealed some fluctuating movements of a thunderstorm in the study area. According to the findings, thunderstorms occur most frequently at the airport in June and less frequently in January and December. The study also discovered that thunderstorms at the airport are positively and significantly related to flight delays and cancellations, while the association between flight diversions and thunderstorm occurrence is positive but statistically insignificant. Furthermore, flight delays, flight diversions, and flight cancellations interact positively among themselves. The regression result of the study revealed that a 1% increase in thunderstorm occurrence leads to a 19.4% increase in flight delay, a 7.1% increase in flight cancellation, and a 4.3% increase in flight diversion. As a result, the study presented various regression models that may be utilized to make predictions. The study proposes consistent thunderstorm observation at the airport and steady forecasts using the regression models, based on the findings. However, it further recommends that pilots, air traffic controllers, and meteorologists be trained and retrained so that they can provide better and more efficient services.
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Malkin, E. I., N. V. Cherneva, P. P. Firstov, G. I. Druzhin, and D. V. Sannikov. "Dirty thunderstorms caused by volcano explosive eruptions in Kamchatka by the data of electromagnetic radiation." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 946, no. 1 (December 1, 2021): 012015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/946/1/012015.
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Abstract During volcano eruptions, so called dirty thunderstorms are the sources of electromagnetic radiation. They are caused by ash-gas clouds formed during explosive eruptions. Thunderstorm activity in an ash-gas cloud during volcano eruption is monitored by radio equipment. The VLF direction finder, located at Paratunka, monitors thunderstorm activity in the region of Kamchatka Peninsula including dirty thunderstorms accompanying explosive eruptions of Shiveluch and Bezymyanniy volcanoes. In the paper, we analyze records of electromagnetic radiation associated with dirty thunderstorms occurring during volcano eruptions from 2017 to 2020. During that period 24 eruptions of Shiveluch volcano and 5 eruptions of Bezymyanniy volcano occurred. Seventeen and three of them, respectively, caused dirty thunderstorms. Two-stage scenario of development is typical for all the dirty thunderstorms. The first stage lasts for 5–7 minutes and accompanies eruptive column development. However, if the eruption begins according to a smooth scenario, the first stage may be weak. The second stage lasts for 20–80 minutes and is associated with eruptive cloud formation and propagation. The intensity of this dirty thunderstorm stage depends on eruption power as well as on the interaction of an eruptive cloud during its propagation with the clouds of meteorological origin. Based on the obtained data, that is indicated by the increase of cloud-to-cloud stroke number.
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Zhao, Chuanhong, Yijun Zhang, Dong Zheng, Haoran Li, Sai Du, Xueyan Peng, Xiantong Liu, Pengguo Zhao, Jiafeng Zheng, and Juan Shi. "Technical note: On the ice microphysics of isolated thunderstorms and non-thunderstorms in southern China – a radar polarimetric perspective." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 24, no. 20 (October 17, 2024): 11637–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11637-2024.
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Abstract. Determining whether a cloud will evolve into a thunderstorm is beneficial for understanding thunderstorm formation and also important for ensuring the safety of society. However, a clear understanding of the microphysics of clouds in terms of the occurrence of lightning activity has not been attained. Vast field observations and laboratory experiments indicate that graupel, which is rimed ice, is a vital hydrometeor for lightning generation and is the foundation of riming electrification. In this study, polarimetric radar and lightning observations are used to compare the ice microphysics associated with graupel between 57 isolated thunderstorms and 39 isolated non-thunderstorms, and the differences in radar parameters are quantified. Our results for the occurrence of lightning activity in clouds revealed the following results: (1) the maximum difference in graupel volume at the −10 °C isotherm height between thunderstorms and non-thunderstorms reached approximately 7.6 km3; (2) the graupel particles approached spherical shapes, with a mean differential reflectivity (ZDR) value of 0.3 dB, which likely indicated that heavily rimed graupel was present; (3) the median values of horizontal reflectivity (ZH) or ZDR at positions where the source initiation and channel of the first lightning flashes were nearly 31 dBZ or 0 dB; and (4) 98.2 % of the thunderstorms were equipped with a ZDR column, and the mean depth was ∼ 2.5 km. Our study deepens our understanding of lighting physics and thunderstorm formation.
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Taszarek, Mateusz, John Allen, Tomáš Púčik, Pieter Groenemeijer, Bartosz Czernecki, Leszek Kolendowicz, Kostas Lagouvardos, Vasiliki Kotroni, and Wolfgang Schulz. "A Climatology of Thunderstorms across Europe from a Synthesis of Multiple Data Sources." Journal of Climate 32, no. 6 (March 8, 2019): 1813–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0372.1.
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Abstract The climatology of (severe) thunderstorm days is investigated on a pan-European scale for the period of 1979–2017. For this purpose, sounding measurements, surface observations, lightning data from ZEUS (a European-wide lightning detection system) and European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID), ERA-Interim, and severe weather reports are compared and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed. The research focuses on the annual cycles in thunderstorm activity and their spatial variability. According to all datasets thunderstorms are the most frequent in the central Mediterranean, the Alps, the Balkan Peninsula, and the Carpathians. Proxies for severe thunderstorm environments show similar patterns, but severe weather reports instead have their highest frequency over central Europe. Annual peak thunderstorm activity is in July and August over northern, eastern, and central Europe, contrasting with peaks in May and June over western and southeastern Europe. The Mediterranean, driven by the warm waters, has predominant activity in the fall (western part) and winter (eastern part) while the nearby Iberian Peninsula and eastern Turkey have peaks in April and May. Trend analysis of the mean annual number of days with thunderstorms since 1979 indicates an increase over the Alps and central, southeastern, and eastern Europe with a decrease over the southwest. Multiannual changes refer also to changes in the pattern of the annual cycle. Comparison of different data sources revealed that although lightning data provide the most objective sampling of thunderstorm activity, short operating periods and areas devoid of sensors limit their utility. In contrast, reanalysis complements these disadvantages to provide a longer climatology, but is prone to errors related to modeling thunderstorm occurrence and the numerical simulation itself.
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Chen, Tsing-Chang, Ming-Cheng Yen, Jenq-Dar Tsay, Chi-Chang Liao, and Eugene S. Takle. "Impact of Afternoon Thunderstorms on the Land–Sea Breeze in the Taipei Basin during Summer: An Experiment." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53, no. 7 (July 2014): 1714–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-13-098.1.
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AbstractEnvironmental conditions for the roughly three million people living in the Taipei basin of Taiwan are greatly affected by the land–sea breeze and afternoon thunderstorm activities. A new perspective on the land–sea breeze life cycle and how it is affected by afternoon thunderstorm activity in the Taipei basin during the dry season is provided. During the summer monsoon break–revival phase, about 75% of rainfall in the Taipei basin is produced by afternoon thunderstorms triggered by sea-breeze interactions with the mountains to the south of this basin. Because the basic characteristics of the land–sea breeze and the changes it undergoes through the influence of afternoon thunderstorms have not been comprehensively analyzed/documented, a mini–field experiment was conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 to explore these aspects of the land–sea breeze in this basin. Thunderstorm rainfall is found to change not only the basin’s land–sea-breeze life cycle, but also its ventilation mechanism. On the nonthunderstorm day, the sea breeze supplies the open-sea fresh air for about 8 h during the daytime, but the land breeze persists on the thunderstorm day from afternoon to the next morning, acting to sweep polluted urban air out of the basin.
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Adzhieva, Aida A., Gennady V. Kupovykh, and Zalina M. Kerefova. "Results of the Analysis of Thunderstorm Activity on the Territory of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania." UNIVERSITY NEWS. NORTH-CAUCASIAN REGION. NATURAL SCIENCES SERIES, no. 4 (December 27, 2023): 61–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.18522/1026-2237-2023-4-61-69.
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The paper presents the results of thunderstorm activity study on the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, and in particular, in the area of the all-season tourist complex “Mamison”. The analysis of the average annual factors of thunderstorm and lightning activity in the period from 2012 to 2022 in the warm period of time (May-September) according to the LS8000 thunderstorm direction finding system was performed. The estimation of the number of cloud-earth lightning ratios of positive and negative polarity is made, the influence of the orography of the terrain on the magnitude of lightning currents is investigated, the territorial features of the distribution of cloud-earth lightning currents of different polarity are determined. The resulting expression of the linear trend for the number of thunderstorms shows a decrease in thunderstorm activity in recent years in the study area.
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Brown, Andrew, Andrew Dowdy, and Elizabeth E. Ebert. "The Relationship between High-Presentation Asthma Days in Melbourne, Australia, and Modeled Thunderstorm Environments." Weather and Forecasting 37, no. 3 (March 2022): 313–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-21-0109.1.
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Abstract Epidemic asthma events represent a significant risk to emergency services as well as the wider community. In southeastern Australia, these events occur in conjunction with relatively high amounts of grass pollen during the late spring and early summer, which may become concentrated in populated areas through atmospheric convergence caused by a number of physical mechanisms including thunderstorm outflow. Thunderstorm forecasts are therefore important for identifying epidemic asthma risk factors. However, the representation of thunderstorm environments using regional numerical weather prediction models, which are a key aspect of the construction of these forecasts, have not yet been systematically evaluated in the context of epidemic asthma events. Here, we evaluate diagnostics of thunderstorm environments from historical simulations of weather conditions in the vicinity of Melbourne, Australia, in relation to the identification of epidemic asthma cases based on hospital data from a set of controls. Skillful identification of epidemic asthma cases is achieved using a thunderstorm diagnostic that describes near-surface water vapor mixing ratio. This diagnostic is then used to gain insights on the variability of meteorological environments related to epidemic asthma in this region, including diurnal variations, long-term trends, and the relationship with large-scale climate drivers. Results suggest that there has been a long-term increase in days with high water vapor mixing ratio during the grass pollen season, with large-scale climate drivers having a limited influence on these conditions. Significance Statement We investigate the atmospheric conditions associated with epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in Melbourne, Australia, using historical model simulations of the weather. Conditions appear to be associated with high atmospheric moisture content, which relates to environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but also potentially pollen rupturing as suggested by previous studies. These conditions are shown to be just as important as the concentration of grass pollen for a set of epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in this region. This means that weather model simulations of thunderstorm conditions can be incorporated into the forecasting process for epidemic asthma in Melbourne, Australia. We also investigate long-term variability in atmospheric conditions associated with severe thunderstorms, including relationships with the large-scale climate and long-term trends.
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Melnikov, Valery, Dušan S. Zrnić, Donald W. Burgess, and Edward R. Mansell. "Vertical Extent of Thunderstorm Inflows Revealed by Polarimetric Radar." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32, no. 10 (October 2015): 1860–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-15-0096.1.
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AbstractIt is shown that the dual-polarization radar parameters can be used to estimate the vertical extent of inflow regions in thunderstorms. Atmospheric biota trapped by inflows allows identification of inflow regions. It is shown that weak echoes from biota can be observed at signal-to-noise ratios as low as −7 dB. The vertical extent of inflow reached 5.2 km in the analyzed tornadic thunderstorm and 6.7 km in a severe thunderstorm.
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Schmeits, Maurice J., Kees J. Kok, and Daan H. P. Vogelezang. "Probabilistic Forecasting of (Severe) Thunderstorms in the Netherlands Using Model Output Statistics." Weather and Forecasting 20, no. 2 (April 1, 2005): 134–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf840.1.
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Abstract The derivation and verification of logistic regression equations for the (conditional) probability of (severe) thunderstorms in the warm half-year (from mid-April to mid-October) in the Netherlands is described. For 12 regions of about 90 km × 80 km each, and for projections out to 48 h in advance (with 6-h periods), these equations have been derived using model output statistics (MOS). As a source for the predictands, lightning data from the Surveillance et d’Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) network have been used. The potential predictor dataset mainly consisted of the combined (postprocessed) output from two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It contained 15 traditional thunderstorm indices, computed from the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM), and (postprocessed) output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. The most important predictor in the thunderstorm forecast system is the square root of the ECMWF 6-h convective precipitation sum, and the most important predictor in the severe thunderstorm forecast system is the HIRLAM Boyden index. The success of the square root of the ECMWF 6-h convective precipitation sum as a thunderstorm predictor indicates that there is a strong relation between the forecast convective precipitation by the ECMWF model and the occurrence of thunderstorms, at least in the Netherlands up to 3 days in advance. The overall verification results for the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC runs of the MOS (severe) thunderstorm forecast system are good, and, therefore, the system was made operational at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in April 2004.
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Du, Yangxingyi, Dong Zheng, Yijun Zhang, Wen Yao, Liangtao Xu, and Xianggui Fang. "Spatiotemporal Distributions of the Thunderstorm and Lightning Structures over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau." Remote Sensing 16, no. 3 (January 25, 2024): 468. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs16030468.
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Utilizing data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite’s precipitation radar (PR) and lightning imaging sensor (LIS), this study explores the spatiotemporal distributions of thunderstorm and lightning structures over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), an aspect that has not been explored previously. The structural aspects are crucial when considering the impact of thunderstorm and lightning activity in the atmospheric processes. Thunderstorms over the QTP show clear spatial variations in both vertical height and horizontal extension. In the southern region, the average heights of 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ echo tops typically exceed 11.2 and 9.3 km, respectively. Meanwhile, in the eastern part, the average coverage areas for reflectivity greater than 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ consistently surpass 1000 and 180 km2, respectively. The spatial distribution of thunderstorm vertical development height relative to the surface aligns more closely with the horizontal extension, indicating stronger convection in the eastern QTP. The thunderstorm flash rate shows an eastward and northward prevalence, while the thunderstorm flash density peaks in the western and northeastern QTP, with a minimum in the southeast. Furthermore, in the eastern QTP, lightning duration, spatial expansion, and radiance are more pronounced, with the average values typically exceeding 0.22 s, 14.5 km, and 0.50 J m−2 sr−1 μm−1, respectively. Monthly variations reveal heightened values during the summer season for thunderstorm vertical extension, areas with reflectivity greater than 30 dBZ, and lightning frequency. Diurnal variations highlight an afternoon increase in thunderstorm vertical and horizontal extension, lightning frequency, duration, and spatial scale. From a statistical perspective, under weak convective conditions, lightning length exhibits a positive correlation with thunderstorm convection intensity, contrasting with the opposite relationship suggested by previous studies. This article further analyzes and discusses the correlations between various thunderstorm and lightning structural parameters, enhancing our understanding of the distinctive features of thunderstorm and lightning activities in the QTP.
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Allen, John T., David J. Karoly, and Kevin J. Walsh. "Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century." Journal of Climate 27, no. 10 (May 9, 2014): 3827–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00425.1.
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Abstract The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980–2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0–6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.
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Pryakhina, Sofya I., and Anna A. Kotova. "Synoptic conditions for the formation of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over the territory of Western Siberia." Izvestiya of Saratov University. Earth Sciences 23, no. 4 (December 18, 2023): 250–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.18500/1819-7663-2023-23-4-250-254.
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The article presents the study results of thunderstorm activity with rainfall over a large territory of Western Siberia in its three regions: Northern, Central and Southern over a seven-year period from 2017 to 2023. The study revealed the most favorable synoptic conditions for the formation of thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall over a large area of Western Siberia. Cases are also reviewed and factors that need to be paid attention to when forecasting thunderstorms with squally winds are identified.
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Chen, Tsing-Chang, Jenq-Dar Tsay, and Eugene S. Takle. "A Forecast Advisory for Afternoon Thunderstorm Occurrence in the Taipei Basin during Summer Developed from Diagnostic Analysis*." Weather and Forecasting 31, no. 2 (March 15, 2016): 531–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0082.1.
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Abstract Summer is a dry season in northern Taiwan. By contrast, the Taipei basin, located in this region, has its maximum rainfall during summer (15 June–31 August), when 78% of this rainfall is contributed by afternoon thunderstorms. This thunderstorm activity occurs during only 20 days in summer. Because of the pronounced impacts on the well-being of three million people in the basin and the relative infrequency of occurrence, forecasting thunderstorm events is an important operational issue in the Taipei basin. The basin’s small size (30 km × 60 km), with two river exits and limited thunderstorm occurrence days, makes the development of a thunderstorm activity forecast model for this basin a great challenge. Synoptic analysis reveals a thunderstorm day may develop from morning synoptic conditions free of clouds/rain, with a NW–SE-oriented dipole located south of Taiwan and southwesterlies straddling the low and high of this dipole. The surface meteorological conditions along the two river valleys exhibit distinct diurnal variations of pressure, temperature, dewpoint depression, relative humidity, and land–sea breezes. The primary features of the synoptic conditions and timings of the diurnal cycles for the four surface variables are utilized to develop a two-step hybrid forecast advisory for thunderstorm occurrence. Step 1 validates the 24-h forecasts for the 0000 UTC (0800 LST) synoptic conditions and timings for diurnal variations for the first five surface variables on thunderstorm days. Step 2 validates the same synoptic and surface meteorological conditions (including sea-breeze onset time) observed on the thunderstorm day. The feasibility of the proposed forecast advisory is successfully demonstrated by these validations.