Academic literature on the topic 'Tourism behaviors'

While ethical tourism is becoming more important in the tourist industry, relatively little is known about ethical tourism in China and what motivates Chinese tourists to undertake ethical tourism. This study examines this issue by adopting the planned behavior theory to explore the impact of Chinese tourists’ personal factors, positive social influence, image of destination and quality of services on their behavioral intentions in order to better understand what motivate Chinese tourists to participate ethical tourism. The results show that knowledge of ethical tourism, attitude toward ethical tourism, influences from family and friends, and local environment of the destinations are the key factors that drive Chinese tourists to undertake ethical tourism. In addition, service customization, service support and past experiences with ethical tourism are also important determinants of tourists’ satisfaction with ethical tourism, which further affects Chinese tourists’ intention to visit. Implications for ethical tourism marketing and management are then discussed with reference to how to promote more ethical tourism.

Recently, the intelligent tourism has become increasingly popular in tourism industry. Particularly, the tourism APP has become an important and convenient channel for tourists to make travel decisions and take relevant behaviors. The paper mainly researches the continuously using intention of customers to tourism APP among five dimensions (the behavioral intention, the subject norms, the perceived behavioral control, the past behavior and the behavioral attitude) through the theory of planned behavior model. Besides, this paper chooses the college students in Dalian, China as the research object of study and provides a research reference for tourism APP companies.

This paper explores the impact of low-carbon service operations on responsible tourist behavior within sustainable cultural tourism. A proposed conceptual framework is used to examine this largely ignored situation through the case study of Xiao Liuqiu Island. The small island in Taiwan reveals a previously understudied phenomenon in sustainable island tourism. The psychological processes connecting cultural and cross-cultural experiences with sustainable tourism are explored using primary and secondary data collected through in-depth interviews of domestic tourists and online reviews of foreign tourists, respectively. Data analysis reveals the significant result that sustainable island tourism comprises two important elements: a supply and a demand side of a destination. The supply side describes low-carbon service operations—which include food, lodging, and ecological tourist activities—while the demand side reflects tourist behaviors—expressed through cognition, emotion, and motivation as well as authenticity. In addition, this paper makes an important contribution to management by emphasizing the need for careful attention to tourism psychology, particularly in natural and ecological environments that use tourism as a marketing strategy in cultural ecosystems services (CES).

This paper uses the principle of multi-objective optimization and introduces the digital new media technology into the travel management process and establishes multi-level optimization learning model and VB algorithm routine of tourist evaluation. In order to verify the validity and reliability of the algorithm and procedure, this paper uses the VB programming software to develop mobile phone interface of digital multimedia tourism management and develops simulation system of tourist behavior using Android system software. Using visitor satisfaction management comprehensive evaluation model, this paper calculates the influence of guest evaluation on management of different tourists perceive behaviors. It also calculates comprehensive scores of multi-order and multi-stage tourists’ evaluation which provides technical support for the research of computer innovation model of tourism management.

With the growth of rural tourism in China, this study aims to determine the destination attributes, tourism satisfaction, and intention of revisiting Inner Mongolia. This study also investigated the mean comparison of tourist satisfaction and revisit intention across domestic tourists’ demographic characteristics. Structural analysis revealed that destination attributes have a positive influence on satisfaction and revisit intention. In addition, the result of the mean difference test showed that satisfaction is significantly different between male and female tourists, and revisit intention significantly varies across the season. Our findings have an excellent directive significance to bring forward rural tourism in Inner Mongolia.

In an effort to develop and implement effective promotion strategies for tourism in a specific destination, it is important to describe the characteristics and behaviors of visitors to the destination as well as monitor changes and trends in the region’s tourism industry. One of the most common methods to accomplish this objective is to conduct a visitor’s profile study. This study aimed to determine the characteristics of visitors to the city of SALALAH as a whole. This study viewed SALALAH tourist profile with regards to two major key variables namely: the tourists’ socioeconomic characteristics and the tourists’ behavioral characteristics. While the tourists’ socio-economic characteristics are often described in terms of age, sex, education and income levels, behavioral characteristics include tourists’ motivation, attitudes, needs and values. These characteristics are essential not only because they all influence the magnitude, frequency, and kind of interaction with the physical attributes of the tourism destination and its people but also because they play a crucial role in contributing to the tourist decision-making processes.

While sustainable tourism and responsible tourism share commonalities of guiding principles, responsible tourism places more emphasis on the behaviors of individual actors. However, little is known about how responsible tourists' behaviors are reconciled by their attitude toward tourism products' economic, cultural, and environmental contribution to a destination. This study explores the role of the tourists' attitude toward mariculture and perception of its benefits within the context of their travel decision-making process. Framed with the theory of planned behavior, this research examines tourists' perception of shellfish mariculture in relationship to their subjective knowledge about mariculture, attitude toward product quality of mariculture, and intention to be involved in marine tourism. This study suggests that the perception of benefits of the product are important considerations when tourists decide their travel activities in coastal destinations.

The current research is based on a socio-historical approach to the cultural role of tourism media in the reconstruction of cultural identities, specifically place-identity. It explores the role of Israeli outgoing tourism guidebooks in the reconstruction of local, Israeli place-identities. Stemming from a multidisciplinary methodological approach to the research of the book publishing industry, 17 titles written in Hebrew for Israeli outgoing tourists are chosen for their cultural stance and a manifest textual referencing of issues regarding Israeli identity. Critical discourse analysis of lingual content is used for exploring the texts’ social actions regarding the Israeli identity by following the inclusion and omission of tourist information and suggested itineraries. Results suggest justification of tourism abroad as the books’ main textual strategy. Six textual tactics are used for reconstructing Israeli tourists’ pre-trip motivations, on-trip tourist roles and behaviors, and post-trip reflections. Israeli outgoing tourism is reconstructed as creating a temporary, playful sphere for reiterating Israel’s predominance in the lives of Israelis even while touring abroad. The cultural significance of tourism media is discussed in conclusion by pointing at the books’ double role in both marketing and cultural construction of a consensual Israeli-Jewish pace-identity amidst global changes.

Dining is an essential tourism component that attracts significant expenditure from tourists. Tourism practitioners need insights into the dining behaviors of tourists to support their strategic planning and decision making. Traditional surveys and questionnaires are time consuming and inefficient in capturing the complex dining behaviors of tourists at a large scale. Thus far, the understanding about the dining preferences and opinions of different tourist groups is limited. This article aims to fill the void by presenting a method that utilizes online restaurant reviews and text processing techniques in analyzing the dining behaviors of tourists. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a case study on international tourists visiting Australia using a large-scale data set of more than 40,000 restaurant reviews made by tourists on 2,265 restaurants. The proposed method can help researchers gain comprehensive insights into the dining preferences of tourists.

The sufficiency of theory of planned behavior (TPB) is still being questioned although the model was validated in predicting a wide range of intentions and behaviors. Based on a comprehensive literature review, an extended TPB model of tourists was proposed to investigate relations among constructs of the model with the addition of motivation and actual behavior. An instrument was developed based on previous tourism and marketing studies as well as focus groups. A two-wave data collection was implemented, with data collected from 1,524 Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou residents in Stage 1 and 311 respondents from the same cohort in Stage 2. Results of the study demonstrated that the extended TPB model with tourist motivation fit the data relatively well, explaining 5% more of the variation in behavioral intention in comparison with a base model without motivation. However, the model with both tourist motivation and actual behavior was not tenable, despite a marginal relationship found between behavioral intention and actual tourist behavior using regression analysis. The findings warrant further research examining the predictive power of behavioral intention on actual behavior.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Yale University, 2005.
Title from PDF title page. Abstract, table of contents in French and English. Available through UMI ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 384-395). Also issued in print.

Cette thèse vise à fournir un nouveau cadre théorique pour étudier l'intention de revisiter à court terme des touristes internationaux en suivant le paradigme du marketing expérientiel dans le contexte d'une destination émergente du Vietnam basée sur l'exploration approfondie de la perception de la destination et des tests empiriques du mode d'auto-congruence. En employant une conception de recherche à méthodes mixtes qui combine à la fois l'analyse de contenu et les modèles d'équation structurelle, il vise à combler plusieurs lacunes de recherche soulevées dans la littérature sur le comportement touristique, qui sont principalement: l'inutilité de la théorie de l'expectancy-disconfirmation (paradigme de qualité de service) dans l'explication intention de revisiter à court terme des touristes; l'absence de facteur temps dans l'examen de l'intention de revisiter ; et la relation non identifiée entre la motivation à rechercher la nouveauté et le comportement du touriste au stade post-visite. Grâce à un modèle de processus d'achat non linéaire, il a d'abord découvert que les perceptions expérientielles et symboliques d'une destination se révélaient être des médiateurs clés qui devraient être intégrés dans la recherche sur les destinations touristiques. En outre, l'auto-congruence s'est avérée avoir une influence positive sur l'intention de revisiter à court terme tandis que la recherche de nouveauté révèle une motivation robuste qui décourage l'intention de revisiter du touriste vers la même destination par son effet modérateur sur l'interrelation entre des construits de comportement après visite. Cela pourrait expliquer la réalité du faible taux de retour des touristes internationaux au Vietnam. Enfin, les destinations émergentes semblent attirer davantage de milléniaux qui préfèrent la nouveauté et l'expérience de voyage unique
This thesis is an endeavor to provide a new theoretical framework for investigating international tourists' short-term revisit intention following the experiential marketing paradigm in the context of an emerging destination of Vietnam based on the in-depth exploration of the destination perception and empirical testing of the self-congruity mode. By employing a mixed-method research design that combines both content analysis and structural equation models, it aims at bridging several research gaps raised in tourist behavior literature, which mainly are: the irrelevance of expectancy-disconfirmation theory (service quality paradigm) in explaining tourist's short-term revisit intention ; the absence of time factor in examining the revisit intention; and the unidentified relationship of novelty-seeking motivation and tourist's behavior in the post-visit stage. Through a non-linear buying process model, it first discovered that experiential and symbolic perceptions of a destination are found to be key mediators that should be incorporated in tourism destination research. Furthermore, self-congruity has been found to have a positive influence on short-term revisit intention whereas novelty seeking is revealed a robust motivation that discourage the revisit intention of tourist to the same destination by its moderating effect on the interrelationship of post-visit behavior constructs. This might explain the reality of the weak return rate of international tourists to Vietnam. Finally, emerging destinations seem to attract more millennials who prefer novelty and unique traveling experience

Sustainable tourism has been an emerging topic as environmental and social challenges have been rising these past few years while the tourism sector remains a fast-growing industry. Sustainable tourism can be defined as a “tourismthat takes full account of its current and future economic, social and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of visitors, the industry, the environment and host communities”(UNWTO, 2013, p.10).As part of our master’s thesis, we investigatedhow factors such as awareness andattitudes could influence the sustainable tourism behaviors of tourists. We focused our research on young adults, aged from 18 to 35 years old, as they can be considered as tomorrow’s travelers. Through this study, we investigatedwhether sustainable tourism awareness is really present among young adults and what is its impact on their behaviors. We were also interested in the relationships between attitudes and behaviors as this topic has often been studied in previous research. While someresearchers noticed correlations, others highlighted some gaps, emphasizing that behaviors do not always follow people's attitudes and concerns. Thus, the purpose of this master’s thesis wasto examinethe effects of sustainable awarenessand sustainableattitudesof young adults on their behaviors in the context of sustainable tourism.To address this topic, we formulated thefollowing research question:“What are the effects of sustainable awareness and sustainable attitudes on behaviors of young adultsin the context of sustainable tourism?”To answer this question, we developed a conceptual model and hypotheses to testthe effects between variables. We conducted an online surveyand we collected data from a sample of 208 respondents. To test the conceptual model, we performed multiple statistic tests including a Cronbach’s alpha test, a Pearson Correlation, and two regression analyses. The first regression measured the effects of awareness and attitudes on environmental tourism behaviors while thesecond one tested the same independent variables’ effects but this time, on social tourism behaviors. The findings highlighted significant positive effects of sustainable tourism awareness and attitudes on environmental behaviors. However, only social tourism attitudes appeared to have a significant positive effect on social tourism behaviors. Moreover, the findings also showed a slight gap between young adults’ attitudes and behaviors, especially regarding environmental tourism behaviors. Finally, despitethe fact that former studies have been mostly focusing on environmental tourism issues, our findings also identified an interest in social tourism issues from young adults.This work also aimed to address the lack of research investigating sustainable tourism through both social and environmental lenses. Moreover, it contributedto the existing knowledge by investigating the relationships between awareness, attitudes, and behaviors in the context of sustainable tourism, and on the specific population of young adults. Finally, thisthesis also providedrecommendations and research avenues for further works on the topic.

After the U.S. Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s and the desegregation of public transportation and facilities and with the advancements that African Americans have gained in education, income, and employment, African Americans have greater access to travel opportunities. Today's African Americans travel in greater numbers than ever before and represent a dynamic and growing travel market segment that according to the Travel Industry Association of America (TIA) (2003) generated 75 million person trips in 2002. Although there have been several studies conducted on the differences between ethnic or racial groups with regard to their participation in outdoor recreation, research on differences between African American and White traveler behaviors in the urban tourism context is sparse. This study examined the differences between African American and White travelers who visited the city of New Orleans. Specifically, the study investigated demographic variables (income and gender) for their contribution to the differences between African American and White travelers in the modes of travel, activities participated in, sources of travel information, importance of destination activities, satisfaction with destination attributes, and spending patterns. Significant differences were found in modes of travel, activities participated in, sources of information, information of destination attributes findings (popular, African American Values, and sport and recreation), satisfaction with New Orleans on the destination attributes entertainment, African American Values, and spending. Although the findings of this study reflect the trip characteristics of travelers to New Orleans, future research should examine the applicability to other urban tourism destinations.

Online User Experiences (UXs) act as persuasive technology that can nudge users toward making behaviour change. This makes online UX integral to marketing. The tourism industry relies on UX to attract potential customers. Made up of 80% SMEs, the competition is high, hence the SMEs must deliver robust UXs that capture, persuade and convert users into customers. Tourism, despite being an early adopter of technology lags behind in terms of delivering UXs that meet users’ expectations. Furthermore, scholarly works exploring online UX as a persuasive technology within the tourism SMEs, specifically the day-attraction SMEs segment, are lacking. Using the theoretical framework of the Persuasive Systems Design (PSD) model, this research evaluates day attraction SMEs’ online UXs as persuasive technology. The research uses three mixed-methods to present the service providers’ and the users’ perspectives. The first method is a website content analysis that reviews the persuasive architecture of 102-day attraction websites. The second method uses questionnaires to get insights on tourists’ online usage, motivations, opinions and perceptions of online UX delivered by a single day attraction SME (case study). The third method, an eye tracking experiment is an extension to the questionnaires. The outcomes show that the SMEs’ incorporate persuasive UX elements corresponding to usability, visual aesthetics and credibility, but fail at incorporating strategies to support dialogue. The tourists’ suggest that usability, visual aesthetics and credibility UX elements affect their decision to buy, however, certain strategies that enhance dialogue, such as ability to win rewards, are likely to nudge them toward behaviour change. Furthermore, there appears to be a link between visual aesthetics and perceived usability, and their combined effect on persuasiveness. A final outcome establishes tourist’s website reading patterns, emphasising the placement of call-to-actions within an F-shape region. This research contributes through a customised version of the PSD model applicable for tourism SMEs, delivers empirical evidence suggesting additions to the model and, adds to the overall body of knowledge on tourism online UXs and persuasive technology.

To explore the destination images of Thailand as a tourist destination from the point of view of Swedish Generation X tourists in Västerås by examining their satisfaction/dissatisfaction and behavioral intentions after traveling to Thailand. To test the theoretical DI formation and interrelationships of those components. A qualitative research approach with in-depth interviews to collect empirical date derived from respondents’ first-hand experiences. Destination Image Theory was used as a background and Content Analysis Approach was used to analyze data.  Thailand was perceived positive and negative by Swedish generation X tourists in Västerås. They were satisfied with their stay at Thailand. After traveling to Thailand, most of them would like to revisit Thailand, but few of them want to travel to new destination. All of them are willing to tell friends or relatives about their experiences in Thailand.

The monograph proposes a methodology of new marketing, structural and economic-management approaches for tourism organizations in the modern conjuncture of tourism for the elderly. Approaches that take into account the consumer behavior of older people and other age groups, retired, proposed in this paper, can be more effectively used to involve these categories in tourism. The aging of the population and demographic changes in the structure of consumers of tourist products require Russian travel companies to optimize their approaches and strategies, rebuild the tourism infrastructure to organize the supply of products in demand in the world tourism market that meet the needs of older people. The assessment of relevance of tourist products and their elements to requirements of elderly tourists is presented. It is intended for teachers, postgraduates and students of higher educational institutions, specialists in the organization of tourist activities, heads of travel agencies, researchers and all those who are interested in the development of tourism activities.

AbstractWith advances in technology affordances, contents generated by individual tourists in the tourism context has become an influential source of tourism information besides contents channeled by traditional mass media such as newspapers and broadcasts. Specifically, Meme Tourism (i.e., meme phenomenon in tourism) becomes one of the biggest trends in imitating and transforming/evolving tourism contents online, which is a byproduct of participatory culture that use text and visual images as means of user-generated communications in online communities through the exchange, distribution, and transactions. Understanding the emerging phenomena of meme in tourism would provide insights on tourists’ desires and behaviors in modern traveling. This study conceptualizes three major perspectives in tourism; 1) media-induced tourism, 2) user-generated content, and 3) social media activities, reflecting meme phenomena in tourism. Given the foundation provided, this study calls for a new stream of study in tourism that examines desire, motivation, and behavior of tourists in technology-enabled modern travel culture.

AbstractOnline sustainability communication attracts a considerable attention in tourism research. This study focuses on sustainability communication in official destination websites for informing and motivating visitors to adopt sustainable practices and behaviors. To advance previous research in this area, it adopts a web content mining approach to assess the characteristics of online contents of a sample of 20 Italian cultural destinations. The main dimensions and typologies of sustainability-oriented practices in tourism are used as basis to develop a text classifier for the automated content analysis. A total of 2.975 web pages from official city websites and official tourism promotion websites of the destinations is analyzed through this approach to investigate the online contents relating to the environmental, economic, socio-cultural and general dimensions sustainability as well as their emotional appeal. The analysis reveals that about 15.8% of total online texts contains information to promote sustainability-oriented behaviors at the destination. It indicates that the communication is more specifically focused on environmental/economic/socio-cultural practices than generically referring to sustainable/responsible tourism. However, in line with previous research, it highlights that destinations do not sufficiently balance these pillars in their online communication. Further, the websites’ texts scarcely leverage the persuasive potential of affective appealing messages. The implications of this automated approach for improving the design of online sustainability-related contents are also discussed.

AbstractIn the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both the tourism industry and tourist behavior. At present, research on artificial intelligence and tourism is receiving widespread attention, but most of them focus on a certain subject or a specific aspect of the tourism industry. For example, artificial intelligence influences the behavior of tourists and tourism enterprises. The analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence on the tourism industry as a system is still insufficient. Therefore, this research proposes a multi-dimensional framework from an industry perspective based on the existing definition of artificial intelligence. The framework involves three aspects: the level of intelligence, task types, and whether artificial intelligence is embedded in robots. The authors use a large number of Chinese practice cases to investigate how AI affects the tourism industry, then put forward a research agenda to analyze how destination government, tourism enterprises and tourist experience will change in the future. Finally, they highlight important issues related to privacy, prejudice and ethics.

AbstractThis study explores how technology-mediated journaling can support memorable and meaningful tourism experiences (MMEs). The digital photo is the most common medium for travelers to keep a record of memorable and meaningful moments and share them via social media. We explore the potential of using these footprints for travelers to connect the implicit dimensions of their well-being. In particular, we draw reference from positive psychology, which emphasizes that human well-being is rooted in people’s implicit personal factors and psychological needs such as character strengths, motives, and values. Making the implicit explicit may help people to make a wiser choice that matches their own aspirations. To support people in (re)creating meaningful narratives, we created a proof-of-concept prototype by incorporating character strengths into the design of a digital journaling platform. This study involved ten participants and each of them created at least five MME narratives from their past journeys. In this article, we discuss the design concerns for such a platform and examine the effectiveness of the platform in producing meaningful narrative by collecting participant feedback, and looking into the character strengths that the participants draw upon in their MMEs. The result suggests that not only the platform supports the reminiscing of MMEs, but the narration also deepened their self-awareness and allowed the participants to connect their behaviors with their personality traits and implicit values. Some participants were able to identify meanings that were hitherto obscured to them. Implications for quantified travelers and smart tourism are discussed.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.