Academic literature on the topic 'Trade by barter'

The article deals with trading possibilities through the barter trade companies which are widely spread especially in USA and Wester Europe. It shows the essence of commercial and cooperative companies engaged in barter-trading business. It also introduces the International Reciprocal Trade Assiciation worldwide company (IRTA). Shows results of czech barter company LQA, ltd., which trades requisitions and other goods by jointing demands since 2000. By the help of balance sheet method it reproaches values of offered and demanded requisitions in 2007.

BARTER (a Backbone ARchitecture for Trade of ElectRonic content) is a payment infrastructure that facilitates digital content trade over an open network. BARTER is designed to operate over a large-scale, global and heterogeneous communication network. The BARTER protocols address two vital requirements, neglected from existing electronic commerce systems: scalability and transactional efficiency. These protocols possess strong properties such as delivery atomicity, agreement validation and the ability to resolve several classes of disputes. BARTER's novelty is twofold: First, BARTER servers are not required to perform expensive cryptographic operations such as commitment verification; commitments are cross-verified by the parties themselves, thus reducing the overhead of online transaction processing by orders of magnitude. Consequently, BARTER can serve as an efficient online/offline clearing infrastructure. Second, BARTER integrates scalability considerations into several system components (the authentication subsystem, the account management subsystem, and the maintenance of global data) that are likely to suffer service degradation in a world-wide setting. In addressing these issues, BARTER takes into account the inherent asynchronous, unreliable, insecure and failure-prone environment assumptions. We contend that by employing service distribution, BARTER is expected to scale well, meeting the demands of a world-wide setting, over which it is intended to operate.

In the mid-20th Century, the practice of bartering was one of the most prevalent forms of economic transaction around the Indonesian Archipelago. The most prevalent and crucial for Indonesian society was the trade conducted along the border between Singapore and Sumatra. The government centred in Jakarta often approved and even encouraged barter with Singapore at the regional and national level. In many cases, however, bartering along the borders was done autonomously by the regional government and traders, and often out of state control. In these circumstances, the central government sometimes “illegalised” barter trade, while the regional government and societies, arguing that their barter transactions were “licit”, issued a challenge to the government’s order. Such tension and conflict over barter in the region was exacerbated by political upheavals such as regional rebellions in the 1950s and the Konfrontasi in the 1960s. This article traces changing policies and discourses regarding “barter” between Singapore and the Indonesian islands (mostly Sumatra) in the mid-20th Century, and highlight how an economic transaction was politicised, and how the ideas of licitness and legality were in confrontation in certain political backgrounds.

Rising interest in barter due to the current world-wide recession has motivated a re-examination of macroeconomic determinants of barter in the U.S. economy, particularly its correlation with the business cycle. This critical evaluation, using the International Reciprocal Trade Association data, addresses, among other issues, whether firm size affect the behavior of firms during business cycles. Here, we deal with replacement of the missing observations by filling them with forecasts using the Box-Jenkins ARMA and Kalman filter methods before performing the unit root and cointegration tests. Although the ECM estimates for various measures of business cycles are occasionally inconsistent, overall the inventory measures and capacity utilization results suggest that barter transactions are counter-cyclical regardless of the firm size. Additionally, we find that barter rises with inflationary trend, dissemination of access to computer technology, tax rates and tax laws requiring disclosure of barter transactions.

Today the impact of foreign-trade operations as an important element of foreign – economic activity on economy of Russia has increased. Thus showing all stages of foreign-trade barter deal is becoming more and more acute. Because of that the organization could avoid difficulties in the process of shaping income of the operation. As a result of export-import operation integration not only positive effects but also certain problems were found. Practice of auditing demonstrated that currency, commercial and finance risks are not controlled completely or are controlled insufficiently, which can cause damages to the organization. An important step during auditing is the process of identifying advantages and disadvantages in the existing control over foreign-trade barter deals. In case such a control is absent, the assessment of goods movement on the way, in places of storage and transportation is violated. According to the Federal Customs Service import reached the minimum value in the last 5 years. It is connected mainly with food embargo (which caused the record drop in deliveries from EU countries), numerous bans introduced last year and fall in the ruble rate. The author advanced methodology of barter deal auditing during conducting foreign economic activity by organizations and the system of record-keeping of operations, which play an important role in foreign trade of Russian organizations and entrepreneurs.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South African businesses might be missing out on the benefits of commercial barter trading, which has seen considerable adoption in other parts of the world. Commercial barter is the non-monetary exchange of products and services between organisations specifically from the small to medium business sector. The research aim was to unpack and understand the level of awareness, engagement and perceptions of commercial barter in order to assess the viability, scope and scale of commercial barter as a trade instrument across small to medium businesses in South Africa. The research took on a quantitative approach surveying representatives of 68 firms primarily situated in Cape Town, South Africa. The research results suggested that commercial barter is a viable method of trade for small to medium businesses. Although viable, the scale to which it will propagate is dependent on the growth of awareness as well as the growth of knowledge on barter practices amongst firms that form part of the small to medium business sector. The study further found that commercial barter is favourable to organisations that offer either goods or services, more so to firms that are part of business services, information technology, hospitality and personal services industries. With commercial barter displaying viability, a Barter Exchange Network is suggested for mass introduction to South Africa. The generic business model was described using the Business Model Canvas by Alexander Osterwalder.

The Global Financial Crisis underscored both the complexity and brittleness of the global financial system, especially for small to medium enterprises dependent on the current banking regime for credit. More than ever, we have also begun to see the disentanglement of small businesses from traditional banks at the local and regional level in the form of CDFIs, fintech alternative lending, and now complementary currencies. Through interviews with the management and members of the BizX complementary currency this study asks what the attitudes and motivations are behind its offering and use. In addition, it inquires into the economic and psychological benefits that arise from it. Often referred to as a barter network but more accurately described as a commercial trade exchange, BizX and its member's attitudes and motivations differ significantly from other complementary currencies in its apolitical stance to trade and large national and international membership. Its value proposition, the development of hyper-local economies, is real but its aspirational attempt at creating a robust community similar to its community currency siblings is questionable. Nonetheless, its value as an economic development tool is undeniable and the research concludes its implementation within a larger structure of economic development self-reliance strategies should be given serious consideration for future planning.

Demand for both food and water are projected to increase substantially in the next four decades. Water scarcity is also projected to increase in scale and complexity. Climate change is projected to increase temperatures, spatio-temporal variability in rainfall, frequency and severity of droughts and soil water stresses to crops. Due to the crucial role of water in crop growth and yield formation, prolonged or severe soil water deficits in crop producing areas can result in substantial yield penalties. The potential of food trade to help address food insecurity as a result of insufficient water availability for crop production has been rationalized in the virtual water concept. The aim of this thesis was to improve the evidence base for understanding and evaluating the relationships between future water availability for crop production and food trade (or virtual water flows), and the utility of the virtual water concept to inform policy and management decisions on water-food security. The UK and barley were used as a model country and crop, respectively. Three crop growth simulation models (AquaCrop, CropWat and WaSim) were evaluated for their abilities to estimate the water use of 10 barley genotypes. Subsequently, the effect of projected climate change on UK barley yields in the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s was simulated using the high, medium and low emission scenarios data from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09). Projections of total UK feed barley supply and demand were performed to quantify potential virtual water flows and to analyse the implications for food security and policy. The results show that the predicted water use of barley differed between the models but not among the genotypes. Predicted seasonal water use of the barley genotypes ranged from 241.4 to 319.2 mm. Based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and the index of agreement (D-Stat) values, CropWat performed poorly while AquaCrop and WaSim performed excellently. Barley yields under projected climate change increased substantially over baseline yields in all UK regions. Projected mean barley yields for the UK ranged from 6.04 tons ha-1 (2030s) to 7.77 tons ha-1 (2050s). In spite of the projected increase in yields, the UK faces the risk of large deficits in feed barley and meat supply from the 2030s to the 2050s due to a combination of population growth, increased per capita meat demand and reductions in land area allocated to barley production. Finally, current water scarcity concepts were found to be incompatible with water availability and consumption in crop producing areas, a situation that diminishes the usefulness of the virtual water concept for policy. To address this deficiency, a framework for making water scarcity compatible with crop production was proposed. In conclusion, the poor performance of CropWat has implications for its wider use in quantifying global virtual water flows associated with crop trade. Even though UK barley yields are projected to increase under projected climate change, the projected deficits in feed barley and meat supply threatens to destabilize future UK food security. The UK can rely on import to offset the large deficits in feed barley and meat supply but can use the proposed framework to reduce the effect of its imports on water scarcity in the exporting countries. The proposed framework improves understanding and evaluation of the role and usefulness of the virtual water concept in water-food security policy and management decisions.

Cette thèse porte sur la pratique des échanges et du commerce dans la société précoloniale du Gabon. L'enjeu est d'étudier cette pratique en privilégiant un angle d'approche général au départ, et en mettant en œuvre une démarche analytique progressive, afin de saisir les acteurs, les modes de production mais également les produits faisant l'objet de ces échanges. L'objet " La pratique des échanges commerciaux dans la société précoloniale du Gabon : XVIe-XIXe siècle " se situe à la croisée des relations internationales, de l'analyse des contacts avec les peuples de " l'extérieur ", de processus d'européanisation et peut donc faire l'objet d'approche différentes selon les variables qu'on entend privilégier. Nous avons choisi de l'étudier selon une démarche non seulement historique mais anthropologique et sociologique qui nous conduisent à privilégier certains concepts clés : historique des peuples, étude de leur milieu et mode de vie, configurations de relations entre acteurs structurant un nouvel espace social d'interactions. D'un point de vue méthodologique, cette étude s'appuie sur une démarche qualitative et privilégie l'usage des entretiens : le corpus de compose d'une cinquantaine d'entretiens, complétés par l'audio-visuel, la littérature spécialisée et grise sur le sujet. Elle se compose de deux parties, découpées en six (6) chapitres totaux. Dans une première partie, la thèse se concentre sur l'historique des peuples du Gabon précolonial en prenant en compte les facteurs, les circuits et les dénouements des migrations, en l'occurrence les implantations de ces groupes ethniques dans leur habitat actuel. Elle s'étend ensuite sur l'étude de l'organisation sociale politique et culturelle des peuples à travers l'analyse des structures parentale, matrimoniale, juridique et culturelle. Enfin, cette partie précise le contexte et le jeu des différents acteurs à l'origine du développement de ces échanges : la production agricole et artisanale favorisée d'une part par la division sociale du travail et la spécialisation des groupes et d'autre part par les failles écologiques (l'inégal répartition de ressources, aridité des sols, animaux dévastateurs des cultures). Dans un second temps, la thèse fait porter l'analyse sur le déroulement des activités d'échange d'une part et de commerce d'autre part. Elle met en relief les différents circuits empruntés par les acteurs et les produits ainsi que les zones d'aboutissement. D'abord, elle fait une description des échanges en milieu local mettent en scène les membres des mêmes milieux ou des milieux proches les uns des autres. Cette interdépendance observée au sein des groupes avait comme base les liens de familiarité ou d'amitié entre ces différents groupes d'acteurs concernés. Ensuite, est évoqué le système d'échange hors des territoires, quoi que le concept territoire ne soit qu'employé de façon péjorative. Cette catégorie d'échange fait naître des contacts entre les populations avec celles des localités environnantes du nord au sud, de l'est à l'ouest. Enfin, le poids de l'abolition de la traite des noirs joue à un niveau macro comme obstacle des activités économiques des européens, ce qui soulève dès lors des enjeux capitalistes pour ces derniers. La naissance de cette économie de traitre, mais également son déroulement et son ascendance sur l'économie traditionnelle préexistante font l'objet de notre troisième et dernier chapitre de cette seconde partie. Entre héritage et ajustements de nature, ces politiques économiques vont mettre en place de types de monnaies, de produits et d'habitudes. Là encore, le poids des cultures et des habitudes étrangères à ces peuples, limitaient la pratique des échanges traditionnels, développant les effets d'apprentissage aux métiers pourvoyeur du gain.

M.Comm.
Barter trade, the oldest form of exchange, is resurging in the 21st century. The traditional association of barter trade with undeveloped economies and economies in crisis has changed. Businesses and countries are realising the mutual benefits that can be derived from exchanging goods/services directly. The advent of the Internet and advances in information technology has transformed barter trade into a strategic business tool. Barter trade is especially prevalent in the media industry owing to the ‘perishable’ nature of media inventory. Studies in developed countries have researched the growth of barter trade and its related benefits, difficulties and associated attitudes. No comparable studies were found for South Africa and therefore the primary objective of this study was to establish the extent to which barter trade was utilised in the media industry in South Africa and its associated benefits, difficulties and management practices.

Abstract Increased waterborne trade has led to the construction of ever larger ships and barges as oversized modules are transported by sea. The provision of tugs for towing such vessels has become a serious issue, especially in restricted areas often characterized by coastal regions of limited water depth. Wind loads are most relevant for towing operations because large forces act on the sail area and submerged hull of the towed vessels, such as construction barges when carrying oversized modules or fully laden containerships. Systematic steady and unsteady numerical simulations were performed using a RANS-based field method to predict wind and current forces and moments acting on representative construction barges, containerships, tankers, and passenger ships. Aero- and hydrodynamic computations were carried out separately. Aerodynamic computations considered various deck load configurations to represent realistic loading conditions; hydrodynamic computations accounted for finite water depth. Agreement with available wind tunnel experimental data was generally favorable. Our purpose was to provide a reference for wind and current loads on different barge and ship types. The objective was not to investigate flow details needed for, e.g., smoke propagation, helicopter landing, etc. This has been covered by other researchers.

An integral part of the conditions of the agricultural market in Bulgaria are the laws and regulations collected in ordinances and regulations imposed by state agencies monitoring the quality and safety of agricultural products traded on the Bulgarian market. The goals are to achieve equal conditions for market participation, tax reporting, quality control. In the last two years we have been observers and participants in the accompanying Covid-19 crisis related to the consequences of Covid-19, both in Bulgaria and the European Union, and around the world. Inevitably, the effects of the restriction and the measures caused by the crown crisis will continue to prolong over time in the agricultural sector and agriculture in general. The purpose of this study is to trace how the current regulatory norms affect the sale of agricultural production and how the restriction has affected the crisis. Are regulatory norms a condition for market development or are they a barrier to market entry and survival and what protection do they provide to end users?

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Members of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program rely on open-sea ports of third-party countries outside borders as conduits for exports and imports. These open-sea ports are located mostly in non-CAREC countries and act as international oceanic trade nodes to connect CAREC freight across cross-border railways, highways, inland sea shipping, and on river and canal barges. This study analyzes seaports and multimodal corridors serving CAREC landlocked countries. It aims to provide sufficient background about ports and logistics developments in the region. It also seeks to identify areas and potential activities that will require cooperation among member countries and development partners within the framework of the CAREC Program.