Academic literature on the topic 'Trade signal'

Conspicuous mating signals attract mates but also expose signallers to predators and parasites. Signal evolution, therefore, is driven by conflicting selective pressures from multiple receivers, both target and non-target. Synchronization of mating signals, for example, is an evolutionary puzzle, given the assumed high cost of reduced female attraction when signals overlap. Synchronization may be beneficial, however, if overlapping signals reduce attraction of non-target receivers. We investigate how signal synchronization is shaped by the trade-off between natural and sexual selection in two anuran species: pug-nosed tree frogs ( Smilisca sila ), in which males produce mating calls in near-perfect synchrony, and túngara frogs ( Engystomops pustulosus ), in which males alternate their calls. To examine the trade-off imposed by signal synchronization, we conducted field and laboratory playback experiments on eavesdropping enemies (bats and midges) and target receivers (female frogs). Our results suggest that, while synchronization can be a general strategy for signallers to reduce their exposure to eavesdroppers, relaxed selection by females for unsynchronized calls is key to the evolution and maintenance of signal synchrony. This study highlights the role of relaxed selection in our understanding of the origin of mating signals and displays.

In this article, we demonstrate the noise reduction and signal to noise ratio (SNR) enhancement in Brillouin optical time-domain analyzers (BOTDA). The results show that, although the main noise contribution comes from the Brillouin interaction itself, a simple low pass filtering on the detected radio frequency (RF) signal reduces remarkably the noise level of the BOTDA traces. The corresponding SNR enhancement depends on the employed cut-off frequency of the low pass filter. Due to the enhancement of the SNR, a mitigation of the standard deviation error of the Brillouin frequency shift (BFS) has been demonstrated. However, RF filters with low cut-off frequency could lead to distortions on the trace signals and therefore detection errors on a non-uniform BFS. The trade-off between the noise reduction and the signal distortion as well as an optimal cut-off frequency are discussed in detail.

The purpose of this study is to determine which indicators are more capable of showing more accurate sell and buy signals on the LQ45 index by using the oscillator indicator Moving Average Divergent Convergent (MACD), Bollinger Band, and Relative Strength Index (RSI). The results in this study indicate that the sell signal can be captured well by the Bollinger band and MACD indicators, but it cannot be captured properly by the RSI, the volume can be small or heading and are in the side ways, while the MACD plays a too slow role in capturing the signal buy compared to Bollinger bands and RSI. The use of a single indicator will never show a buy and sell signal that is really accurate, this is based on the results of research that shows the difference in timeliness in Bollinger, RSI and also MACD so that the combination of several types of indicators will be better compared to using single indicators. Although in statistics there are no significant differences, there are only differences in increment and improvement in the placement of existing values, but in this case, the order of this value is crucial for traders because it requires very high accuracy to determine the right decision in daily transactions.

Cognitive radio networks (CRNs) allow coexistence of unlicensed users (UUs) and licensed users (LUs) and hence, mutual interference between UUs and LUs is neither ignored nor considered as Gaussian-distributed quantity. Additionally, exploiting jamming signals to purposely interfere with signal reception of eavesdroppers is a feasible solution to improve security performance of CRNs. This paper analyzes reliability-security trade-off, which accounts for maximum transmit power constraint, interference power constraint, jamming signal, and Rayleigh fading, and considers interference from LUs as non-Gaussian-distributed quantity. Toward this end, exact closed-form expressions of successful detection probability and successful eavesdropping probability, from which reliability-security trade-off is straightforwardly visible, are first suggested and then validated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Various results demonstrate that interference from LUs considerably decreases both probabilities while jamming signal enlarges the difference between them, emphasizing its effectiveness in improving security performance.

Mimicry is common in interspecies interactions, yet conditions maintaining Batesian mimicry have been primarily tested in predator–prey interactions. In pollination mutualisms, floral mimetic signals thought to dupe animals into pollinating unrewarding flowers are widespread (greater than 32 plant families). Yet whether animals learn to both correctly identify floral models and reject floral mimics and whether these responses are frequency-dependent is not well understood. We tested how learning affected the effectiveness and frequency-dependence of imperfect Batesian mimicry among flowers using the generalist bumblebee, Bombus impatiens , visiting Begonia odorata , a plant species exhibiting intersexual floral mimicry. Unrewarding female flowers are mimics of pollen-rewarding male flowers (models), though mimicry to the human eye is imperfect. Flower-naive bees exhibited a perceptual bias for mimics over models, but rapidly learned to avoid mimics. Surprisingly, altering the frequency of models and mimics only marginally shaped responses by naive bees and by bees experienced with the distribution and frequency of models and mimics. Our results provide evidence both of exploitation by the plant of signal detection trade-offs in bees and of resistance by the bees, via learning, to this exploitation. Critically, we provide experimental evidence that imperfect Batesian mimicry can be adaptive and, in contrast with expectations of signal detection theory, functions largely independently of the model and mimic frequency. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Signal detection theory in recognition systems: from evolving models to experimental tests’.

The potential benefits of reducing pedestrian delay through signal coordination are examined through field data from 10 intersection approaches. The approaches had cycle lengths ranging from 60 to 90 s, walking lengths from the upstream signals ranging from 87 to 105 m, and varying levels of midblock traffic generation. Significant platooning of pedestrians, due to upstream signals, was found on the approaches. This pedestrian platooning could greatly increase or decrease pedestrian delay at the downstream signals, depending on the signal coordination plan. For low green times, the effect of pedestrian platooning on delay was found to be greater than that generally recognized for the automobile mode. Three techniques are described for determining appropriate signal offsets to benefit pedestrians. The first two techniques use average speed and would benefit pedestrians who have speeds that are equal to or greater than the average speed. The third technique determines the delay to be expected from any offset and can, therefore, be helpful in making trade-offs between pedestrian and vehicular delay.

Software radio is a technique for implementing reconfigurable radio systems using a combination of various circuit elements and digital hardware. By implementing radio functions in software, a flexible radio can be created that is capable of performing a variety of functions at different times. Numerous digital hardware devices are available to perform the required signal processing, each with its own strengths and weaknesses in terms of performance, power consumption, and programmability. The system developer must make trade-offs in these three design areas when determining the best digital hardware solution for a software radio implementation. When selecting digital hardware architectures, it is important to recognize the requirements of the system and identify which architectures will provide sufficient performance within the design constraints. While some architectures may provide abundant computational performance and flexibility, the associated power consumption may largely exceed the limits available for a given system. Conversely, other processing architectures may demand minimal power consumption and offer sufficient computation performance yet provide little in terms of the flexibility needed for software radio systems. Several digital hardware solutions are presented as well as their design trade-offs and associated implementation issues.
Master of Science

This diploma thesis is focused on strategic brand building of brand Signal. A complex research of all important issues has been made. It is an overall overview of oral care market in CZ, set up Signal status in this market.

In order to maximize fitness, individuals must partition their limited resources among competing physiological processes, creating negative statistical associations between processes known as "life-history trade-offs". Evidence indicates that individuals tend to decrease their reproductive investment when confronted with a significant immunological challenge in order to increase investment in immune defense. This trade-off is often accompanied by a significant decrease in the sexual signal, which provides an honest signal of the male's infection status to potential mates. However, if individual residual reproductive value is low, they may instead increase their reproductive investment to maximize reproductive success before the end of their life (a.k.a. terminal investment). Here, we investigate the potential for terminal investment in the ground cricket Allonemobius socius by inoculating males with varying dosages of an immune challenge. We predicted that both high dose and advanced male age would induce terminal investment. Furthermore, we predicted that terminally investing males would produce a dishonest signal by increasing their signaling effort. We found that upon infection We found that upon infection, young males and old males differentially alter their reproductive strategy. Young males exhibited the classic deceleration of reproductive effort. However, old males increased their calling song energetics and decreased their parental investment (nuptial gift size), suggesting that old males are dishonestly signaling their condition to the female.
M.S.
Masters
Biology
Sciences
Biology

Tourism fuels the Zanzibari economy but adds to the depletion of marine resources. However, the concept of corporate biosphere stewardship suggests that companies with consolidated power can influence sustainability pathways. Can tourist hotels practically support octopus closures, a novel conservation tool, as a way towards sustainable marine resource consumption? I address this issue by making the first known attempt to estimate Zanzibari hotels’ seasonal and annual octopus demand, mapping their value chain structure and identifying the nature of their demand. The study relies on semi-structured interviews of 31 respondents (hotel staff, hotel suppliers, market traders, food importers and key informants) and official data. I assess the demand of hotels to range between 16 to 27 percent of the mean 2008-2018 annual catch in Zanzibar. Hence, this consumer power hotels may confer agency for them to contribute to resource conservation such as octopus closures. Hotels may support closures particularly if they match seasonality in octopus price and demand. However, hoteliers’ use of a wide sourcing network including imports may lead to diluted price signals hampering understanding and incentives to protect the local octopus supply. Additionally, hoteliers’ weight preferences largely correspond with the Zanzibari voluntary minimum weight limit, but do not align with the desired outcome of bigger octopus from closures. The typical practise of purchasing fresh octopus and limited freezer capacity of hotels may also limit their agency to support octopus closures. This study makes a novel contribution of linking octopus conservation with tourism. It furthermore nuances the concept of corporate biosphere stewardship by assessing the practical potential of Zanzibari tourism, a less consolidated industry, to contribute to marine resource conservation.  Further research into local biosphere stewardship of value chains within low-income country contexts should investigate differences in use of consumer power by small as opposed to large-scale businesses. In addition, similar assessments could benefit from research into local spatial and relational value chains, and their influence on hoteliers’ capacity to perceive of supply status through price signals, not only for octopus but seafood in general.
Utalii unakuza uchumi wa zanzibar lakini umekubwa na kupungua kwa rasilimali za bahari. Ingawaje, dhana ya uhirika wa kibailogio stewardship umependekeza kua nguvu ya mashirikiano ya makampuni yanaweza kuchangia njia endelevu. Inawezekana kwa mahoteli ya kitalii yakatoa msaada wa vitendo wa kufungia pweza wasivuliwe kwa kipindi maalumu, kama zana ya uhifadhi wa mazingira ambayo ni njia ya kupelekea matumizi endelevu ya matumizi ya rasilimali ya bahari? Ninaangalia suala hili kwa kufanya majaribio ya kwanza kwa kukadiria mahitaji ya pweza kwa hoteli za Zanzibar kwa msimu na kwa kila mwaka, kuyaainisha maeneo ya mnyororo wa thamani na kutambua maumbile ya upungufu wake. Utafiti huu ulikuwa ni wa muundo wa mahojiano ya wazi na watu 31 walihojiwa (wafanyakazi wa hoteli, wasambazaji wa mahoteli, wauzaji wa masokoni, wasafirihaji na watu wengine wanohusika) na taarifa za takwimu. Nilipima mahitaji ya mahoteli kwa asilimia kati ya 16 mpaka 27 ya jumla 2008-2018 upatikanaji wa kila mwaka kwa zanzibar. Hivyo basi nguvu ya maoteli wanaweza kua mashirika ya kuchangia uhifadhi wa rasilimali kama kufungia mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza. Mahoteli yanaweza kuwasaidia kufungwa kwa mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza hasahasa ikiwa watafanana kwa msimu na kwa upatikanaji. Ingawaje wenye mahoteli wanatafuta chanzo kikubwa ikiwemo kuagiza kutoka nje ambayo inaweza kushusha bei na ni ishara ya kuzuia kutoa motisha ya kulinda usambazaji wa ndani. Kwakuengezea wenye mahoteli uzito wanaoupendelea unawiana na ule wa kiwango cha chini cha Zanzibar, lakini hayaendani na matokeo ya matakwa yao ya pweza wakubwa wakati wa kufungia mwamba kwa uvuvi wa pweza. Mahoteli hayawezi kuwa kama mashirika ya kusaidia kufungs pweza kutokana na kutaka pweza ambao wametoka kuvuliwa na vilevile uwezo mdogo wa majokofu yao kuweza kuhifadhi pweza hao. Utafiti huu utaleta mchango mpya baina ya uhifandhi wa pweza na utalii. Na vilevile itaelezea dhana ya mashirikiano ya kibiosphere stewardship kwa kuchunguza umuhimu halisi wa utalii wa Zanzibar, muunganiko mdogo wa wadau katika kuchangia uhifadhi wa rasilimali za bahari. Tafiti zijazo zinazohusiana na biosphere stewardship ya mtiririko wa thamani kwa muktadha wa nchi zenye kipato kidogo zifanye uchunguzi juu ya tofauti ya nguvu ya watumiaji wadogo wadogo inavyoenda kinyume na biashara kubwa. Kwa kuengezea uchunguzi kama huo utanufaisha watu wa hali za chini na mahusiano ya mnyororo wa thamani na mchango wao kwa uwezo wa wenye mahoteli kutambua hali ya usambazaji kupitia bei zake si kwa pweza peke tu bali ni kwa vyakula vya baharini vyote.

Many signals in nature are complex and composed of several components. However, the advantages and disadvantages of complex signaling are not completely understood. Although complex signals are advantageous for vertebrate decision-making processes, our understanding of whether similar advantages exist for invertebrates is limited. To investigate how signal complexity influences learning and decision-making in foraging bumblebees (Bombus impatiens), I trained them on unimodal (shape or olfactory) or multimodal (shape and olfactory) flowers. Addition of olfactory cues to visual cues improved the learning of bees. A speed-accuracy trade-off in decision-making reflects the difficulty of decisions. The bees trained on multimodal flowers made more accurate decisions without reducing their speed, and had higher target finding rates (correct visits/total decision time). These results suggest that bees forage more efficiently when flowers signal in more than one modality, and support arguments pointing out problems with studying signal components separately.

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are en vogue both as policy tool, as well as research subject. We do not beg to differ. In this paper, inspired by the in-going negotiations between the EU (European Union) and the US (United States) on the TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), we ask whether the conclusion of the agreement will, among other things, signal fewer disputes between the two partners before the WTO. This could happen either because there will be a forum diversion (litigate before the bilateral forum with the same or different intensity), or because differences of opinion will be addressed in extra-judicial manner. Our prediction is that, judging from past behaviour, e.g. the amount of litigation between the EU and the US with their preferential partners before and after they had signed an agreement with them, it is quite likely that they will litigate less against each other before the WTO. Without assigning causal relationship to the signature of a bilateral agreement and the amount of litigation between preferential partners, we show that there is inverse correlation between the two. It remains to be seen whether the WTO will profit or suffer from the likelihood of fewer disputes between the two largest trading partners.

However humiliating for the politicians and soldiers, the peace of 1783 was the signal for an immense expansion of the British economy and a consequent rise in the demand for all manner of raw materials. So far as the oil trade was concerned, the peace terms removed at a stroke the most damaging competitors. "We are surprised," said John Adams, the America minister in London, "that you prefer darkness and consequent robberies, burglaries and murders in your streets, to the receiving, as a remittance, our spermaceti oil."...

Being able to follow the chain of contagion of COVID-19 is important to help save lives and control the epidemic without sustained costly lockdowns. This is especially relevant in Latin America, where economic contractions have already been the largest in the regions history. Given the high rates of transmission of COVID-19, relying only in manual contact tracing might be infeasible. Acceptability and uptake of contact tracing apps with exposure notifications is key for the implementation the “test, trace and treat” triad. In the first study of its kind in Latin America, we find that for a nationally representative sample of 10 countries, an opt-out regime with automatic installation significantly increases the probability of acceptance of such apps in almost 22 p.p. compared to an opt-in regime with voluntary installation. This triples the size and is of opposite sign of the effect found in Europe and the United States. We see that an opt-out regime is more effective in increasing acceptability in South America compared to Central America and Mexico; for those who claim not to trust the national government; and for those who do not use their smartphones for financial transactions. The severity of the pandemic at the place of residence does not seem to affect the effectiveness of the opt-out regime versus an opt-in one, but feeling personally at risk does increase the willingness to accept contact tracing apps with exposure notifications in general. These results can shed light on the use of default options in public health in the context of a pandemic in Latin America.

The article investigates functional techniques of extralinguistic expression in multimedia texts; the effectiveness of figurative expressions as a reaction to modern events in Ukraine and their influence on the formation of public opinion is shown. Publications of journalists, broadcasts of media resonators, experts, public figures, politicians, readers are analyzed. The language of the media plays a key role in shaping the worldview of the young political elite in the first place. The essence of each statement is a focused thought that reacts to events in the world or in one’s own country. The most popular platform for mass information and social interaction is, first of all, network journalism, which is characterized by mobility and unlimited time and space. Authors have complete freedom to express their views in direct language, including their own word formation. Phonetic, lexical, phraseological and stylistic means of speech create expression of the text. A figurative word, a good aphorism or proverb, a paraphrased expression, etc. enhance the effectiveness of a multimedia text. This is especially important for headlines that simultaneously inform and influence the views of millions of readers. Given the wide range of issues raised by the Internet as a medium, research in this area is interdisciplinary. The science of information, combining language and social communication, is at the forefront of global interactions. The Internet is an effective source of knowledge and a forum for free thought. Nonlinear texts (hypertexts) – «branching texts or texts that perform actions on request», multimedia texts change the principles of information collection, storage and dissemination, involving billions of readers in the discussion of global issues. Mastering the word is not an easy task if the author of the publication is not well-read, is not deep in the topic, does not know the psychology of the audience for which he writes. Therefore, the study of media broadcasting is an important component of the professional training of future journalists. The functions of the language of the media require the authors to make the right statements and convincing arguments in the text. Journalism education is not only knowledge of imperative and dispositive norms, but also apodictic ones. In practice, this means that there are rules in media creativity that are based on logical necessity. Apodicticity is the first sign of impressive language on the platform of print or electronic media. Social expression is a combination of creative abilities and linguistic competencies that a journalist realizes in his activity. Creative self-expression is realized in a set of many important factors in the media: the choice of topic, convincing arguments, logical presentation of ideas and deep philological education. Linguistic art, in contrast to painting, music, sculpture, accumulates all visual, auditory, tactile and empathic sensations in a universal sign – the word. The choice of the word for the reproduction of sensory and semantic meanings, its competent use in the appropriate context distinguishes the journalist-intellectual from other participants in forums, round tables, analytical or entertainment programs. Expressive speech in the media is a product of the intellect (ability to think) of all those who write on socio-political or economic topics. In the same plane with him – intelligence (awareness, prudence), the first sign of which (according to Ivan Ogienko) is a good knowledge of the language. Intellectual language is an important means of organizing a journalistic text. It, on the one hand, logically conveys the author’s thoughts, and on the other – encourages the reader to reflect and comprehend what is read. The richness of language is accumulated through continuous self-education and interesting communication. Studies of social expression as an important factor influencing the formation of public consciousness should open up new facets of rational and emotional media broadcasting; to trace physical and psychological reactions to communicative mimicry in the media. Speech mimicry as one of the methods of disguise is increasingly becoming a dangerous factor in manipulating the media. Mimicry is an unprincipled adaptation to the surrounding social conditions; one of the most famous examples of an animal characterized by mimicry (change of protective color and shape) is a chameleon. In a figurative sense, chameleons are called adaptive journalists. Observations show that mimicry in politics is to some extent a kind of game that, like every game, is always conditional and artificial.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.