Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Traffic accident statistics'

Thesis (M.Ing.)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A road safety remedial programme has as an objective the improvement of road transportation safety by applying road safety engineering remedial measures to hazardous road network elements in a manner that will be economically efficient. Since accident data is the primary manifestation of poor safety levels it must be analysed in manner that will support the overall objective of economic efficiency. Three steps in the process of implementing a road safety remedial programme, that rely on the systematic analysis of accident data, are the identification of hazardous locations, the ranking of hazardous locations and the evaluation of remedial measure effectiveness. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be enhanced by using appropriate methodologies to measure safety, identify and rank hazardous locations and to determine the effectiveness of road safety remedial measures. There are a number of methodologies available to perform these tasks, although some perform much better than other. Methodologies based on the Empirical Bayesian approach generally provide better results than the Conventional methods. Bayesian methodologies are not often used in South Africa. To do so would require the additional training of students and engineering professionals as well as more research by tertiary and other research institutions. The efficiency of a road safety remedial programme can be compromised by using poor quality accident data. In South Africa the quality of accident data is generally poor and should more attention be given to the proper management and control of accident data. This thesis will report on, investigate and evaluate Bayesian and Conventional accident data analysis methodologies.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram is om op die mees koste effektiewe manier die veiligheid van onveilige padnetwerkelemente te verbeter deur die toepassing van ingenieursmaatreëls. Aangesien padveiligheid direk verband hou met verkeersongelukke vereis die koste effektiewe implementering van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram die doelgerigte en korrekte ontleding van ongeluksdata. Om 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram te implementeer word die ontleding van ongeluksdata verlang vir die identifisering en priortisering van gevaarkolle, sowel as om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Die koste effektiwiteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram kan verbeter word deur die regte metodes te kies om padveiligheid te meet, gevaarkolle te identifiseer en te prioritiseer en om die effektiwiteit van verbeteringsmaatreëls te bepaal. Daar is verskeie metodes om hierdie ontledings te doen, alhoewel sommige van die metodes beter is as ander. Die 'Bayesian' metodes lewer oor die algemeen beter resultate as die gewone konvensionele metodes. 'Bayesian' metodes word nie. in Suid Afrika toegepas nie. Om dit te doen sal addisionele opleiding van studente en ingenieurs vereis, sowel as addisionele navorsing deur universiteite en ander navorsing instansies. Die gebruik van swak kwaliteit ongeluksdata kan die integriteit van 'n padveiligheidsverbeteringsprogram benadeel. Die kwaliteit van ongeluksdata in Suid Afrika is oor die algemeen swak en behoort meer aandag gegee te word aan die bestuur en kontrole van ongeluksdata. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om verslag te doen oor 'Bayesian' en konvensionele metodes wat gebruik kan word om ongeluksdata te ontleed, dit te ondersoek en te evalueer.

An investigation was conducted to identify factors associated with traffic accident involvement and traffic casualty involvement of road users in Scotland. This was done to determine to what extent accident and casualty involvement are related, and so assist policy-makers in the allocation of scarce resources. Traffic accident involvement was identified for Scottish-resident vehicle drivers. Traffic casualty involvement was identified for vulnerable road users, particularly child pedestrians. Traffic accident rates were determined from information provided by approximately one thousand Scottish-resident drivers who completed an extensive questionnaire on driving behaviours. Their personal characteristics, socio-demographic data, and information on attitudes to road safety issues, were also provided. This broad investigation revealed that traffic accident involvement was found to be associated with personal characteristics, driving behaviour, and attitudes to road safety issues. There is no evidence of any area effect on accident involvement of Scottish drivers, in terms of the administrative area in which they live, the relative level of affluence/deprivation of the area, or the population density of the area. A detailed statistical analysis of STATS19 traffic accident data was conducted to determine casualty rates for different groups of road user in Lothian, Scotland, for the years 1991-97. This involved the development of a unique index of multiple deprivation suitable for both urban and rural areas. Traffic casualty rates were found to be positively associated with the level of deprivation and the population density at postcode sector level. Analysis of injury-accident data identified that personal characteristics are also associated with casualty involvement for children aged 0-15 years old. As with accident involvement, the influence of behavioural and attitudinal factors on casualty involvement needs to be examined. A significant finding from this study is that traffic accident risk and traffic casualty risk are not associated with the same factors. Place of residence is significant in determining casualty risk, but has no significant effect on accident risk. Implications from this research are discussed and suitable recommendations are made.

With the great progress in information and communications technologies in the past few decades, intelligent transportation systems (ITS) have accumulated vast amounts of data regarding the movement iof people and goods from one location to another. Besides the traditional fixed sensors and GPS devices, new emerging data sources and approaches such as social media and crowdsourcing can be used to extract travel-related data, especially given the wide popularity of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, along with their associated apps. To take advantage of all these data and to address the associated challenges, big data techniques, and a new emerging field called data science, are currently receiving more and more attention. Data science employs techniques and theories from many fields such as statistics, machine learning, data mining, analytical models and computer programming to solve the data analysis task. It is therefore timely and important to explore how data science may be best employed for transportation data analysis. In this doctoral study, an integrative approach is proposed for data science applications in ITS. The proposed approach constitutes to an integration of multiple steps in the data analysis process, or integration of different models to build a more powerful one. The integrative approach is applied and tested on two case studies: border crossing delay prediction and traffic accident data analysis.

For the first case study, a two-step border crossing delay prediction model is proposed, consisting of a short-term traffic volume prediction model and a multi-server queueing model. As such, this can be seen as an integration of data-driven models and analytical models. For the first step, the short-term traffic volume prediction model, an integration of data "width" decreasing (i.e., data grouping) step and model development step is applied. For model development, a model combination step of a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) is applied to realize better performance than when using each single model. In addition, the spinning network (SPN) forecasting paradigm is enhanced for border crossing traffic prediction through the utilization of a dynamic time warping (DTW) similarity metric. The DTW-SPN is shown to yield several advantages such as computational efficiency and accuracy as demonstrated by a promising Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) compared to SARIMA and SVR.

This dissertation also proposes the introduction of a data diagnosis step before short-term traffic prediction. In order to develop a methodology for model selection guidance, the author calculated the statistical measures of nonlinearity and complexity for multiple datasets and correlated those to the performances of multiple models SARIMA, SVR and k nearest neighbor (k-NN). Based on this, useful insights are revealed pertaining to parameter setting and model selection based on the data diagnosis results.

For the second step, namely the queueing model development, heuristic solutions are presented for two types of queueing models M/E _K/n and BMAP/PH/n. These models take the predicted traffic volume as input, and use it to calculate future waiting time. The analytical results are compared to the results from a VISSIM model simulation results, and shown to be comparable. . Finally, an android smartphone app, which utilizes the two-step border prediction model methodology described above, is developed to collect, share and predict waiting time at the three Niagara Frontier border crossings.

For the second case study involving traffic accident data analysis, first an integration of a data "depth" decreasing step and a model development step is once again applied. To do this, the modularity-optimizing community detection algorithm is used to cluster the dataset, and for each cluster, the association rule algorithm is applied to yield insight into traffic accident hotspots and incident clearance time. The results show that more meaningful association rules can be derived when the data is clustered compared to when using the whole dataset directly. Secondly, an integration of a data "width" decreasing step (variable selection) and model development step is applied for real-time traffic accident risk prediction. For this, a novel variable selection method based on the Frequent Pattern tree (FP tree) algorithm is proposed and tested, before applying Bayesian networks and the k-NN algorithms. The experiment shows the models based on variables selected by FP tree always performed better than those using variables selected by the random forecast method. Lastly, an integration of the data mining model, M5P tree, and the hazard-based duration model (HBDM) statistical method is applied to traffic accident duration prediction. The M5P-HBDM method is shown to be capable of identifying more meaningful factors that impact the traffic accident duration, and to have a better prediction performance, than either M5P or HBDM.

The two case studies considered in this dissertation serve to illustrate the advantages of an integrative data science approach to analyzing transportation data. With this approach, invaluable insight is gained that can help solve transportation problems and guide public policy.

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the efficiency interventions in traffic accidents of the integrated rescue system. The thesis contains the evaluation if changing the system can improve the effectiveness of operations leading to save lives, health, property and the environment or minimize adverse impacts which are caused by an accident. The evaluation of the capability of recording devices to clarify the causes of traffic accident and their applications in the forensic engineering are also described.

Vid analyser och undersökningar av trafikrelaterade ämnen måste användaren själv lokalisera relevant och aktuell data. Det finns inte heller några garantier på att all nödvändig information går att kombinera på efterfrågat sätt. Detta ställer allt högre krav på kunskaper inom datahantering när det kommer till att skapa modeller och effektsamband för att förebygga olyckor i trafiken. Studiens mål är att undersöka om det är möjligt att kombinera olika data för att skapa en generisk databas som går att nyttja i arbeten med modeller och effektsamband för ökad trafiksäkerhet. Med denna generiska databas har olycksstatistiken för trafikplatser i Region Västmanland undersökts för att idenfitera bidragande orsaker till att olyckor sker. Studiens fokus har legat på arbetet med att ta fram och nyttja en generisk databas genom automatisk selektion av trafiktekniska element såsom trafikplatser. Genom insamling och anpassning av data från NVDB och STRADA har olika typer av analyser gjorts i programmen QGIS och R med syfte att hitta samband mellan olika attribut och trafikolyckor. Utöver detta har tre intervjuer genomförts med sakkunniga inom ämnesområdet.Resultatet som erhölls fann att det idag inte är möjligt att kunna skapa en generisk databas för trafikolyckor innehållande den stora mängd data som efterfrågas. Detta då utformningen av strukturen för den data som inkluderas behöver uppdateras och anpassas. Det saknas även tekniska kunskaper inom området för att automatisera den process som sökes. Gällande identifieringen av attribut som har korrelation med trafikolyckor blev resultatet att det inte gick att hitta statistiska samband med god signifikans. För trafikolyckor finns det en stor spridning och således är det svårt att hitta specifika samband mellan enskilda attribut och olyckor. Därför behövs fler trafikplatser integreras i databasen eller en mer utvidgad statisk analys.
In the analysis and investigation of traffic-related topics users must be responsible for locating relevant and current data. There are no guarantees that all necessary information can be combined in the requested way. This puts higher demand on knowledge in data management when it comes to preventing accidents in traffic. The aim of this study is to investigate the possibility to combine different data to create a generic database that can be used in work with road safety. With the help of this database, the accident statistics for traffic locations in Region Västmanland have been examined in an attempt to identify contributing causes of accidents. The focus has been on developing and using a generic database. By collecting and adapting data from NVDB and STRADA, different types of analyzes have been made in the programs QGIS and R, with the aim of finding connections between parameters and traffic accidents. In addition, three interviews were conducted with relevant experts. The result was that today it is not realistic to be able to create a generic database containing the large amount of information that is requested. It is because the structure of the data needs to be updated and adapted. But also because there is a lack of technical knowledge in the field to automate the process sought. The results showed that regarding the it was not possible to find statistical correlations with traffic accidents. The wide spread in traffic accidents make it difficult to find specific correlations between individual factors and accidents. Therefore the study suggests that more interchanges get integrated into the database or an extended statistical analysis of the current database.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-06-30T14:42:40Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO_JESSICANAYARA_Finalizada!VersaoPDFXXX.pdf: 4362174 bytes, checksum: 2a87d0a2266092995507309bd38dc64b (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-30T14:42:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) DISSERTAÇÃO_JESSICANAYARA_Finalizada!VersaoPDFXXX.pdf: 4362174 bytes, checksum: 2a87d0a2266092995507309bd38dc64b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-15
CAPEs
Sendo os acidentes de trânsito um problema mundial, este estudo descreve e analisa os acidentes ocorridos nas rodovias federais do estado de Pernambuco, entre os anos 2007-2012. Para a análise dos resultados, utilizou-se como opções metodológicas a análise descritiva e exploratória, através da análise de correspondência simples e múltipla. Diante das análises exploratórias, deseja-se ampliar o conhecimento sobre as associações e configurações das ocorrências e de seus fatores envolvidos, traçando os perfis dos acidentes e dos condutores dos veículos. Entre os principais resultados encontrados, identificou-se que a BR-101 é a rodovia federal com maior número de acidentes no estado de Pernambuco, cerca de 45% do total de ocorrências. Além disso, os acidentes na rodovia transversal BR-104 mostraram-se fortemente relacionados com as ultrapassagens indevidas. Identificou-se o perfil do jovem, solteiro, do sexo masculino que ingeriu álcool, com nível médio de escolaridade que sofreu lesões graves, como um dos perfis que melhor explicam os condutores envolvidos nos acidentes nas rodovias federais pernambucanas. Os resultados evidenciaram, também, os principais perfis dos acidentes, entre eles estão as colisões laterais e traseiras, ocorridas na BR-101, pela manhã, ocasionadas por falta de atenção e por não guardar distancia de segurança. Portanto, as análises descritivas e exploratórias trazem mais compreensão acerca dos acidentes. Espera-se que este estudo seja visto como uma fonte de consulta do panorama da acidentalidade no estado de Pernambuco, e que seus resultados norteiem ações adequadas do poder público e da sociedade em geral, a fim de prevenir e mitigar os transtornos causados pelos acidentes.
Since traffic accidents are a global problem, this present study describes and analyzes the accidents that occurred on Federal highways, in Pernambuco state, between the years 2007- 2012. In an effort to analyze the results, it was used as methodological options the descriptive and exploratory analysis, by the simple and multiple correspondence analysis. Given the exploratory analysis, it is needed to learn more about the associations and set of the occurred accidents, as well as its causes involved, mapping the profiles of accidents and drivers of vehicles involved. Among the main results found, the BR-101 is the Federal highway with the greatest number of accidents in the state of Pernambuco, it is about 45% of the total events. In addition, the accidents on the BR-104 cross highway showed strongly related to the undue overtaking. The identified profile as young, single, male, who has ingested alcoholic beverage, who is high school level and has suffered severe injuries is the one who best explains drivers involved in accidents in the Federal highways of Pernambuco. The results showed the main accident particulars as well: side and rear collisions, occurred on the BR-101, in the morning, due to the lack of attention and by not keeping safety distance. Therefore, the descriptive and exploratory analysis bring more comprehension upon the accidents. It is expected to this study to be seen as an inquiry source by the accident rate prospect in Pernambuco state, and its results to guide government and society to appropriate actions in order to prevent and mitigate the issues caused by these accidents.

The diploma thesis Cyclists speed analysis at the age bracket of 4 to 10 deals with history and origin of bicycle, description and types of the contruction of bicycles for children at the age bracket mentioned above. The thesis includes the statistics of accidents involving cyclists and regulations providing for the ride on a bicycle on a carriageway. The practical part includes measuring cyclists speed when passing a measured section and the analysis of these data. The analysis of data is processed in terms of gear systems as the equipment. Complementary measuring was made in a slight rising. In the second part of the practical part is measured braking of cyclists at a particular age bracket and the evaluation of their deceleration. The conclusion includes comparison with measuring of other authors made so far.

A statistical analysis was conducted for road traffic accidents and associated casualties in Bangladesh. This was undertaken in order to assist the policymakers to take appropriate steps to be reduced the road traffic accidents and the associated casualties. Secondary data (collecting from Bangladesh government publications) were explored, analysed and modelled statistically. An exploration was undertaken using the averages (per annum) of rates of KSI/ fatal casualty, accident and involved vehicles applying Bar-charts. In addition, annual time series data were investigated using trend lines. A detailed analysis of variances was conducted using the rates (per 10,000 populations) of BRTA traffic accident and casualty data applying mainly non-parametric tests. Time series; one-way and two /three-way classified data are analysed applying linear regression model; Mann-Whitney or Kruskal-Wallis tests and Univariate regression model respectively. Finally, modelling of two/ three-way data was conducted using the frequencies of fatal casualty, fatal accident and involved vehicles applying Poisson regression. The most significant findings from this research were that pedestrians are highly involved in the casualty figures. Fatal hit pedestrian is the main collision type accident. Maximum fatal accidents occur at out of junction. Cities have higher accident and casualty rates than that for non-cities (divisions/ districts, excluding cities). In particular, Rajshahi city and Dhaka city have the highest accident rates. National highways are the main venues of accidents and casualties. Heavy vehicles including buses and trucks are predominantly involved in casualty accident. Implications from this research have been considered and suitable recommendations have been made.

This Dissertation includes a statistical analysis of traffic accidents followed by a test to know the effect of new pavement on traffic safety. The accident data is considered for the roads those are in Region South-East Sweden that got new pavement during the year 2001. In Sweden, this is the fourth study concerning the before and after effect of the new pavement. Johansson (1997) studied the change in the number of accidents between the before-years and after-years. Tholén (1999) and Velin et al (2002) have additionally compared the change with the change in the number of accidents in a reference road network (also called control sites) consisting of all public roads in Region West Sweden which were not resurfaced during the study period.

The identification of hazardous road locations is important to the improvement of road safety. However, there is still no consensus on the best method of identifying hazardous road locations. While traditional methods, such as the hot spot methodology, focus on the physical distances separating road crashes only, the hot zone methodology takes network contiguity into consideration and treats contiguous road segments as hazardous road locations. Compared with the hot spot method, hot zone methodology is a relatively new direction and there still remain a number of methodological issues in applying the method to the identification of hazardous road locations. Hence, this study aims to provide a GIS-based study on the identification of crash hot zones as hazardous road locations with both link-attribute and event-based approaches. It first explores the general procedures of the two approaches in identifying traffic crash hot zones, and then investigates the characteristics of the two approaches by conducting a range of sensitivity analysis on defining threshold value and crash intensity with both simulated and empirical data. The results suggest that it is better to use a dissolved road network instead of a raw-link-node road network. The segmentation length and the interval of reference points have great impacts on the identification of hot zones, and they are better defined as 100 meters considering the stabilities of the performance. While employing a numerical definition to identify hot zones is a simple and effort-saving approach, using the Monte Carlo method can avoid selection bias in choosing an appropriate number as the threshold value. If the two approaches are compared, it is observed that the link-attribute approach is more likely to cause false negative problem and the event-based approach is prone to false positive problem around road junctions. No matter which method is used, the link-attribute approach requires less computer time in identifying crash hot zones. When a range of environmental variables have to be taken into consideration, the link-attribute approach is superior to the event-based approach in that it is easier for the link-attribute approach to incorporate environmental variables with statistical models. By investigating the hot zone methodology, this research is expected to enrich the theoretical knowledge of the identification of hazardous road locations and to practically provide policy-makers with more information on identifying road hazards. Further research efforts have to be dedicated to the ranking of hot zones and the investigation of false positive and false negative problems.
published_or_final_version
Geography
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy

Thesis (M. S.)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.
Committee Member: Hunter, Michael; Committee Member: Meyer, Michael; Committee Member: Rodgers, Michael. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

The negative social and economic results of traffic accidents are the most serious problems within the concept of traffic safety. Every year, unfortunately, a huge number of traffic accidents result in destructive losses. Especially, when the holiness of human life is concerned, traffic safety has an invaluable role for the traffic improvement strategies. In this manner, Turkey places one of the highest ranks regarding the growing rate and severity of traffic accidents that should be immediately taken under control. In this study, an innovative model that constructs a hybrid between the spatial and statistical analyses is developed in order to examine the importance of enhancing statistical analysis with georeferenced data and so location-based studies in traffic accident analysis. Meanwhile, the effects of road characteristic and environment are considered for exploring the integral role of roadway factor to the occurrence of accidents, and consequently for emphasizing easily applicable and controllable engineering safety measures. Because of the rare and random distribution of traffic accident data, logistic regression is used for the statistical part of the study in order to find the pairwise risk factors among the roadway and environmental parameters. After unifying these relative risk factors with the logic of Analytic Hierarchy Process, the finalized accident risk factors are attached to the digitized road characteristics map through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The abilities of GIS in mapping, displaying and overlaying different data sets ensure to visualize high risked accident areas with their corresponding potential causal factors. The integration of statistical and spatial analyses is essential for developing appropriate and effective precautions in addition to its easily understandable, applicable and modifiable structure. Finally, the model is proven to be appropriate for both interpreting the existing traffic accident problem or potential future accidents and also developing comprehensive and reliable location-based safety studies.

A traditional two dimensional (planar) statistical analysis was used to identify the clustering types of North Central Texas traffic fatalities occurring in 2001-2006. Over 3,700 crash locations clustered in ways that were unlike other researched regions. A two dimensional (x and y coordinates) space was manipulated to mimic a one dimensional network to identify the tightest clustering of fatalities in the nearly 400,000 crashes reported from state agencies from 2003-2006. The roadway design was found to significantly affect crash location. A one dimensional (linear) network analysis was then used to measure the statistically significant clustering of flow variables of after dark crashes and daylight crashes. Flow variables were determined to significantly affect crash location after dark. The linear and planar results were compared and the one dimensional, linear analysis was found to be more accurate because it did not over detect the clustering of events on a network.

The dissertation deals with the analysis of roundabout design elements and their impact on accidents. The analysis objective was to identify the important elements of roundabouts that have impact on accidents. In order to achieve this goal, the multifactorial statistical safety assessment method was used on the basis of a representative sample of data, by developing several safety performance functions, verifying them and interpreting the result. Several design elements, which from the point of view of the traffic accident mechanism belong to the infrastructure factor, have been identified: AADT, average diameter, entrance width, entry angle, direct passage angle, location and many others. The original sample contained about 1200 roundabouts, which were reduced to 200 based on data availability. Accident frequencies were monitored between 2009 and 2016, i.e. for eight years, resulting in total 2674 roundabouts accidents. The result is an accident prediction model, developer based on roundabout approach design elements, and map of critical roundabouts, identified based on empirical Bayes estimate of accident frequency. Following approach parameters were identified: AADT, entry angle, distance between collision points, deviation of angles between approaches, presence of apron, presence of bypass, entry type, presence of pedestrian crossing and surrounding area type.

Os acidentes de trânsito constituem a 13ª causa mais freqüente de morte no Brasil, ocupando o primeiro lugar na faixa de 10 a 14 anos, e o segundo na faixa dos 15 aos 29 anos. Estudos indicam que do total do custo dos acidentes de trânsito, mais de 20% deve-se diretamente ao uso indevido de álcool. Estudos internacionais que relacionam o consumo de álcool com fatalidades no trânsito são freqüentes, mas carecemos de dados epidemiológicos confiáveis e de abrangência nacional que sinalizem a atual e real situação. Portanto, o objetivo do presente estudo é realizar uma análise retrospectiva de dados de vítimas fatais de acidentes de trânsito ocorridos no Município de São Paulo no ano de 2005, para estabelecer a relação do uso do álcool e a morte no trânsito. Nas 907 vítimas avaliadas, notou-se uma associação com o uso de etanol, com 39,4% de casos positivos. Para condutores de veículos, essa porcentagem atinge 55,8%, todos acima do limite máximo permitido para condução à época, de 0,6 g/l. Acidentes em geral, e aqueles relacionados ao álcool, ocorreram com maior frequência aos sábados e domingos, e nos horários das 18hs às 6hs da manhã Os resultados demonstram uma associação do etanol com a ocorrência de vítimas fatais, e devem servir como alerta para o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas visando diminuir este grave problema.
Traffic accidents, in Brazil, account for the 13th most frequent cause of death, being the 1st most frequent among 10 to 14 year olds, and second for those aged 15 to 29. Studies indicate that form the total cost of traffic accidents, over 20% are directly due to the harmful consumption of alcohol. International studies that relate alcohol consumption to traffic fatalities are frequent, but we lack nationwide epidemiological data that present the current and real situation. Thus, the objective of the present study is to carry out a retrospective analysis of data from fatal traffic accident victims, in the city of Sao Paulo, in the year 2005, to establish the relationship between alcohol consumption and traffic deaths. In the 907 evaluated victims, an association with ethanol use was found, with 39.4% of cases being positive. For automobile drivers, this percentage reached 55.8%, all of them above the maximum level allowed at the time, 0.6 g/l. Accidents in general, and those related to alcohol happened in greater frequency on Saturdays and Sunday, and from 6PM to 6AM. The results show an association of alcohol consumption with fatal victims in traffic accidents, and should be a cause for concern. The data present can help in implementing and developing public policies aiming to diminish this grave issue.

O objetivo deste estudo é explorar uma metodologia para análises de autocorrelação em redes utilizando um atributo de fenômenos cuja ocorrência esteja de alguma forma vinculada ou que seja dependente de uma rede. Para isso foram utilizados dados de acidentes de trânsito em um estudo de caso para a cidade de São Carlos, referentes aos anos de 2001, 2002 e 2003. Foram considerados inicialmente os dados totais dos acidentes e, em seguida, separados por tipos (atropelamentos, acidentes com danos materiais e acidentes com vítimas). A próxima etapa considerou os valores dos acidentes totais majorados pela UPS (Unidade Padrão de Severidade). A última etapa do estudo levou ainda em consideração a localização dos acidentes nos arcos ou interseções, que permitiu concluir que esta forma de caracterização espacial dos acidentes pode interferir significativamente nos resultados da análise. Outra conclusão relevante foi a identificação de autocorrelação espacial elevada e positiva no caso estudado. Finalmente a comparação com análise semelhante realizada por áreas demonstra vantagens para a análise por redes.
The objective of this study is to explore a methodology for network spatial autocorrelation analysis by applying it to an attribute of phenomena that are somehow connected to or dependent of a network. In other to do so, traffic accident data recorded in the years 2001, 2002, and 2003 in the city of São Carlos were selected for a case study. A first analysis considered all data, followed by analyses per accident type. In another phase of the study, the total accidents were weighted according to their severity. The last part of the study included in the analysis information about the location of each accident, either at a link or at an intersection. A conclusion drawn from the later analysis indicated that the consideration of the accidents locations can produce significant changes in the results. Another relevant conclusion was the identification of high and positive spatial autocorrelation in the case studied. Finally, the comparison with a similar analysis carried out with areas shows advantages for the network analysis.

Incorporating safety into the transportation planning stage, which is often termed as transportation safety planning (TSP), relies on the vital interplay between zone characteristics and zonal traffic crashes. Although a few safety studies had made some effort towards integrating safety and planning, several unresolved problems and a complete framework of TSP are still absent in the literature. This research aims at examining the suitability of the current traffic-related zoning planning process in a new suggested planning method which incorporates safety measures. In order to accomplish this broader research goal, the study defined its research objectives in the following directions towards establishing a framework of TSP- i) exploring the existing key determinants in traditional transportation planning (e.g., trip generation/distribution data, land use types, demographics, etc.) in order to develop an effective and efficient TSP framework, ii) investigation of the Modifiable Aerial Unit Problem (MAUP) in the context of macro-level crash modeling to investigate the effect of the zone's size and boundary, iii) understanding neighborhood influence of the crashes at or near zonal boundaries, and iv) development of crash-specific safety measure in the four-step transportation planning process. This research was conducted using spatial data from the counties of West Central Florida. Analysis of different crash data per spatial unit was performed using nonparametric approaches (e.g., data mining and random forest), classical statistical methods (e.g., negative binomial models), and Bayesian statistical techniques. In addition, a comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) based application tools were utilized for spatial data analysis and representation. Exploring the significant variables related to specific types of crashes is vital in the planning stages of a transportation network. This study identified and examined important variables associated with total crashes and severe crashes per traffic analysis zone (TAZ) by applying nonparametric statistical techniques using different trip related variables and road-traffic related factors. Since a macro-level analysis, by definition, will necessarily involve aggregating crashes per spatial unit, a spatial dependence or autocorrelation may arise if a particular variable of a geographic region is affected by the same variable of the neighboring regions. So far, few safety studies were performed to examine crashes at TAZs and none of them explicitly considered spatial effect of crashes occurring in them. In order to understand the clear picture of spatial autocorrelation of crashes, this study investigated the effect of spatial autocorrelation in modeling pedestrian and bicycle crashes in TAZs. Additionally, this study examined pedestrian crashes at Environmental Justice (EJ) TAZs which were identified in compliance with the various ongoing practices undertaken by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and previous research. Minority population and the low-income group are two important criteria based on which EJ areas are being identified. These unique areal characteristics have been of particular interest to the traffic safety analysts in order to investigate the contributing factors of pedestrian crashes in these deprived areas. Pedestrian and bicycle crashes were estimated as a function of variables related to roadway characteristics, and various demographic and socio-economic factors. It was found that significant differences are present between the predictor sets for pedestrian and bicycle crashes. In all cases the models with spatial correlation performed better than the models that did not account for spatial correlation among TAZs. This finding implied that spatial correlation should be considered while modeling pedestrian and bicycle crashes at the aggregate or macro-level. Also, the significance of spatial autocorrelation was later found in the total and severe crash analyses and accounted for in their respective modeling techniques. Since the study found affirmative evidence about the inclusion of spatial autocorrelation in the safety performance functions, this research considered identifying appropriate spatial entity based on which TSP framework would be developed. A wide array of spatial units has been explored in macro-level crash modeling in previous safety research. With the advancement of GIS, safety analysts are able to analyze crashes for various geographical units. However, a clear guideline on which geographic entity should a modeler choose is not present so far. This preference of spatial unit can vary with the dependent variable of the model. Or, for a specific dependent variable, models may be invariant to multiple spatial units by producing a similar goodness-of-fits. This problem is closely related to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem which is a common issue in spatial data analysis. The study investigated three different crash (total, severe, and pedestrian) models developed for TAZs, block groups (BGs) and census tracts (CTs) using various roadway characteristics and census variables (e.g., land use, socio-economic, etc.); and compared them based on multiple goodness-of-fit measures. Based on MAD and MSPE it was evident that the total, severe and pedestrian crash models for TAZs and BGs had similar fits, and better than the ones developed for CTs. This indicated that the total, severe and pedestrian crash models are being affected by the size of the spatial units rather than their zoning configurations. So far, TAZs have been the base spatial units of analyses for developing travel demand models. Metropolitan planning organizations widely use TAZs in developing their long range transportation plans (LRTPs). Therefore, considering the practical application it was concluded that as a geographical unit, TAZs had a relative ascendancy over block group and census tract. Once TAZs were selected as the base spatial unit of the TSP framework, careful inspections on the TAZ delineations were performed. Traffic analysis zones are often delineated by the existing street network. This may result in considerable number of crashes on or near zonal boundaries. While the traditional macro-level crash modeling approach assigns zonal attributes to all crashes that occur within the zonal boundary, this research acknowledged the inaccuracy resulting from relating crashes on or near the boundary of the zone to merely the attributes of that zone. A novel approach was proposed to account for the spatial influence of the neighboring zones on crashes which specifically occur on or near the zonal boundaries. Predictive model for pedestrian crashes per zone were developed using a hierarchical Bayesian framework and utilized separate predictor sets for boundary and interior (non-boundary) crashes. It was found that these models (that account for boundary and interior crashes separately) had better goodness-of-fit measures compared to the models which had no specific consideration for crashes located at/near the zone boundaries. Additionally, the models were able to capture some unique predictors associated explicitly with interior and boundary-related crashes. For example, the variables- 'total roadway length with 35mph posted speed limit' and 'long term parking cost' were statistically not significantly different from zero in the interior crash model but they were significantly different from zero at the 95% level in the boundary crash model. Although an adjacent traffic analysis zones (a single layer) were defined for pedestrian crashes and boundary pedestrian crashes were modeled based on the characteristic factors of these adjacent zones, this was not considered reasonable for bicycle-related crashes as the average roaming area of bicyclists are usually greater than that of pedestrians. For smaller TAZs sometimes it is possible for a bicyclist to cross the entire TAZ. To account for this greater area of coverage, boundary bicycle crashes were modeled based on two layers of adjacent zones. As observed from the goodness-of-fit measures, performances of model considering single layer variables and model considering two layer variables were superior from the models that did not consider layering at all; but these models were comparable. Motor vehicle crashes (total and severe crashes) were classified as 'on-system' and 'off-system' crashes and two sub-models were fitted in order to calibrate the safety performance function for these crashes. On-system and off-system roads refer to two different roadway hierarchies. On-system or state maintained roads typically possess higher speed limit and carries traffic from distant TAZs. Off-system roads are, however, mostly local roads with relatively low speed limits. Due to these distinct characteristics, on-system crashes were modeled with only population and total employment variables of a zone in addition to the roadway and traffic variables; and all other zonal variables were disregarded. For off-system crashes, on contrary, all zonal variables was considered. It was evident by comparing this on- and off-system sub-model-framework to the other candidate models that it provided superior goodness-of-fit for both total and severe crashes. Based on the safety performance functions developed for pedestrian, bicycle, total and severe crashes, the study proposed a novel and complete framework for assessing safety (of these crash types) simultaneously in parallel with the four-step transportation planning process with no need of any additional data requirements from the practitioners' side.
ID: 031001360; System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.; Mode of access: World Wide Web.; Adviser: Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty.; Title from PDF title page (viewed May 3, 2013).; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Central Florida, 2012.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 204-214).
Ph.D.
Doctorate
Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering
Engineering and Computer Science
Civil Engineering

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3724.pdf: 1328658 bytes, checksum: 91153925f6a7fcf5fe68aad7d292b35c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-12-15
The man needs the work to satisfy their needs and the concern with the safety and the workers' health constitutes one of the most important and current problems, provoking interest to the employers, the government's agents and mainly the employees, concern that it happens in all of the industrialized countries. Investments in the prevention and knowledge on these accidents bring advantages for the companies, workers and society. And when detaching the itinerary accident, they are deficiencies of the sources of official information, where the sub-registrations dominate, impeding a reliable analysis. Also damages provoked by the accidents of traffic are one of the main problems of public health in world level, requesting combined efforts for prevention executes and maintainable. This work has as main objective to investigate possible relationships among socioeconomic and population indicators with the occurrence of the itinerary accidents, with data attachés in level of Capitals and Brazilian States (UF), seeking to subsidize united politics of safety of traffic and of work. The used methodology will be through risings, treatment and verification of consistence of the data with analyses in the capitals and Units of Federation (UF), Using tool of statistical analysis for 2005. The results can be useful, could supply subsidies for the target of actions in the extent of the system of transports, in way to minimize the imposed risks the quality of life of the population, described through the accidents of traffic.
O homem precisa do trabalho para satisfazer suas necessidades e a preocupação com a segurança e saúde dos trabalhadores constitui um dos problemas mais importantes e atuais, provocando interesse aos empregadores, agentes do governo e principalmente os empregados. Investimentos na prevenção e conhecimentos sobre estes acidentes trazem vantagens para as empresas, trabalhadores e sociedade. E ao destacar o acidente de trajeto, encontram-se deficiências das fontes de informações oficiais, onde os sub-registros dominam, impedindo uma análise confiável. Também danos provocados pelos acidentes de trânsito são um dos principais problemas de saúde pública em nível mundial, requerendo esforços combinados para prevenção efetiva e sustentável. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal investigar possíveis relações entre indicadores socioeconômicos e populacionais com a ocorrência dos acidentes de trajeto, com dados agregados em nível de Unidades da Federação (UF) e as capitais brasileiras (CB), visando subsidiar políticas conjuntas de segurança de trânsito e de trabalho. A metodologia utilizada será através de levantamentos, tratamento e verificação de consistência dos dados com análises nas capitais e Unidades da Federação (UF), utilizando ferramenta de análise estatística, para o ano de 2005. Os resultados poderão ser úteis, fornecendo subsídios para o direcionamento de ações no âmbito do sistema de transportes, de modo a minimizar os riscos impostos a qualidade de vida da população, descrito através dos acidentes de trânsito.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:40:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleber Jean Lacerda.pdf: 3814885 bytes, checksum: b263f1cb09d2491d541c4fc217a2f7ff (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-16
The purpose of this search work is to analyze spatially traffic lethal accidents in Goiânia-City, from a geo-referenced database using geographic information system with spatial statistics tools systems, such as intensity estimator of Rosenblatt-Parzen, the Moran`s global autocorrelation index and local. With as spatial analysis aims to verify the existence of spatial autocorrelation of traffic accidents and the presence of data grouped (clusters).
O propósito deste trabalho é analisar espacialmente os acidentes de trânsito com vítimas fatais, no município de Goiânia, a partir de uma base de dados georreferenciada utilizando sistemas de informação geográfica, associados a ferramentas de estatística espacial, como o estimador de intensidade de Rosenblatt-Parzen, os índices de autocorrelação global e local de Moran. Com tais técnicas de análise espacial, pretende- -se verificar a existência de autocorrelação espacial dos acidentes de trânsito e a presença de agrupamentos (clusters).

Orientador: Tirza Aidar
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciencias Humanas
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T21:57:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maia_PauloBorlina_D.pdf: 17064044 bytes, checksum: c5a7f76cc959d1abdcec9a6bfb9aa950 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009
Resumo: Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a mortalidade dos acidentes de trânsito no Município de São Paulo para o período de 2003 a 2005, avaliando a distribuição espacial a partir do local de ocorrência dos eventos e as possíveis relações destes acidentes com o local de residência das vítimas. Análises espaciais foram conduzidas por meio da vinculação de dois bancos de dados oficiais, referentes aos registros das Declarações de Óbito da Fundação Seade e Boletins de Ocorrência, da Secretaria de Segurança Pública do Estado de São Paulo. Os resultados indicam padrões espaciais específicos e diferenciados segundo o tipo do acidente e as características das vítimas, apontando para a enorme potencialidade das informações georreferenciadas geradas e das técnicas de análise utilizadas para a construção do conhecimento, orientação de políticas e planejamento urbano.
Abstract: This study aimed to examine the mortality of transport accidents in the city of Sao Paulo for the period from 2003 to 2005, evaluating the spatial distribution from the site of occurrence of the events and the possible relationship of these accidents with the place of residence of the victims. Spatial analyses were conducted through the linking of two data banks related to the records of official statements of deaths the Seade Foundation and the Bulletins of Occurrence of the Secretary of Public Security of the State of Sao Paulo. The results indicate specific and spatial patterns which vary with the type and characteristics of the accident victims, pointing to the enormous potential of the georeferenciate information and techniques of analysis used to build the knowledge, directions for public policies and urban planning.
Doutorado
Doutor em Demografia

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissLS.pdf: 7958498 bytes, checksum: 72fd51dc4f0a7e88e90a7ab3929a73b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-02-20
Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos
The traffic accidents have reached high records, registering a great amount of wounded and material damages. One of the largest concerns of the responsible organs for the planning of the traffic and transport is to find solutions that can come to reduce the numbers of traffic accidents. In this context, this work had as main objective to accomplish a spatial analysis of the accidents of traffic on the municipal district of São Carlos - SP, using a of Geographic Information System (GIS) associated to tools of Spatial Statistics, with the intention of identifying the points and areas of larger occurrence of accidents, as well as the spatial tendencies of growth. The work has been developed in two stages: a) determination of punctual patterns; and b) determination of critical zones. For the accomplishment of this work was necessary to make a geographic reference of the traffic accidents, happened between 2001 and 2003. The Spatial Statistics tools used in this work were the Index of Moran, Average Space Piece of furniture, among others; they were used for the accomplishment of groupings of traffic accidents, determination of the critical zones of accidents and the tendencies of displacement of the accidents. The work showed that the traffic accidents happen in all the mesh of urban way, with a larger incidence of accidents with material damages in the central areas of the city and accidents with victims in the outlying areas. It was possible to observe that a displacement of the accidents of traffic exists for almost all the areas of the São Carlos city, it being a spatial phenomenon of difficult treatment. The largest difficulty founded for the accomplishment of this work were linked to the analysis of the consistence of the information, it mean that the analyses of the traffic accidents will be each time more satisfactory, if we pay a larger attention in the collection process and storage of those information.
Os acidentes de trânsito têm assumido números elevados, registrando uma grande quantidade de feridos e danos materiais. Uma das maiores preocupações dos órgãos responsáveis pelo planejamento do trânsito e transporte é encontrar soluções que possam vir a reduzir os números de acidentes de trânsito. Neste contexto, esse trabalho teve como principal objetivo o de realizar uma análise espacial dos acidentes de trânsito do município de São Carlos - SP, fazendo-se uso de Sistemas de Informações Geográficas SIG, associados a ferramentas de Estatística Espacial, com a intenção de identificar os pontos e áreas de maior ocorrência de acidentes, bem como as tendências espaciais de crescimento. O trabalho divide-se em duas etapas: a)identificação de padrões pontuais; e b)identificação de zonas críticas. Para a realização deste trabalho foi necessário efetuar o georreferenciamento dos acidentes de trânsito, ocorridos entre 2001 e 2003. As ferramentas de Estatística Espacial utilizadas, tais como Índice de Moran, Média Espacial Móvel, dentre outras, serviram para a realização de agrupamentos de acidentes de trânsito, identificação das zonas críticas de acidentes e identificação de tendências de deslocamento dos acidentes. A pesquisa mostrou que os acidentes de trânsito ocorrem por toda malha viária, de maneira geral, com uma maior incidência de acidentes com danos materiais nas áreas centrais da cidade e acidentes com vítimas mais nas regiões periféricas. Foi possível observar que existe um deslocamento dos acidentes de trânsito para quase todas as regiões da cidade de São Carlos, tornando um fenômeno espacial de difícil tratamento. As maiores dificuldades encontradas para a realização deste trabalho estão ligadas à análise da consistência das informações. Concluiu-se que, para que as análises dos acidentes de trânsito obtenham resultados cada vez mais satisfatórios, é necessária uma maior atenção no processo de coleta e armazenamento dessas informações, tornando-as cada vez melhores.

Nesta tese são desenvolvidos três estudos sobre o risco associado aos acidentes de trânsito, com o objetivo de avaliar como a população o percebe, e o valor que estaria disposta a pagar para reduzi-lo. As análises foram feitas com duas diferentes metodologias econométricas e dois diferentes conjuntos de dados da população de Porto Alegre. O primeiro estudo procurou avaliar que fatores de risco contribuem para aumentar a gravidade dos acidentes de trânsito, utilizando dados de acidentes de trânsito ocorridos na cidade de Porto Alegre no período 2000-2008, através de modelos logit ordenados generalizados. Os resultados indicam que a maioria das vítimas feridas em acidentes de trânsito são condutores jovens, do sexo masculino e que estavam em motocicletas ou cujo acidente foi um choque contra obstáculos. Contudo, as vítimas fatais têm maior probabilidade de morte são os pedestres, com mais de 60 anos de idade. Os acidentes com maior gravidade ocorrem em maior proporção a noite ou finais de semana, em locais mais afastados do centro da cidade, o que sugere comportamento associado à alta velocidade e uso de substâncias psicoativas como álcool. Para os demais estudos utilizaram-se dados de um survey feito com a população de Porto Alegre em 2009. O segundo estudo avalia como as características sócio-demográficas, a experiência no trânsito e a informação recebida, afetam a percepção do risco e o comportamento no trânsito. Os resultados indicam que os indivíduos que tem risco maior de morte no trânsito subestimam seu próprio risco e vice-versa; e que os mais jovens têm maior percepção deste risco, assim como os que tiveram experiência de acidente de trânsito ou passam mais tempo expostos a ele. O risco do consumo de bebidas alcoólicas associado ao trânsito, no entanto é percebido maior pelos idosos, mulheres, não bebedores ou quem não tem comportamento de risco, assim como pelos que têm mais informação do risco. Da mesma maneira, o comportamento de risco no trânsito associado ao consumo de álcool está negativamente relacionado a percepção deste risco e a idade. O terceiro estudo estimou a disposição a pagar ( ) dos entrevistados pela redução no seu próprio risco de sofrer lesões em um acidente de trânsito e o valor de uma vida estatística ( ), utilizando modelos lineares e não-lineares ajustados através de uma transformação Box-Cox. Os resultados indicam que a esta relacionada de forma decrescente com a idade e com a não utilização de dispositivos de segurança, mas aumenta com a renda, o tempo de exposição ao trânsito, a experiência com acidentes, para as mulheres e para os que têm dependentes. O valor médio eliciado da para reduzir a zero o risco das lesões mais graves, que resultam em morte, implicou em de cerca de R$ 13,4 milhões (US$7,3 milhões) - valor menor, porém comparável ao encontrado para países desenvolvidos e em estudo para o Brasil.
This thesis develops three studies on the risk associated with traffic accidents, in order to assess how people perceive it and the value they would be willing to pay to reduce it. The analysis was made with two different econometric methods and two different sets of data from Porto Alegre's population. The first study to assess at risk factors that contribute to increased severity of accidents, using data obtained from traffic accidents in the city of Porto Alegre between the years 2000 and 2008, and applying the generalized ordered logit. The results indicate that most of the victims injured in accidents are young drivers, males, motorcyclists and whose crash was a “collision with obstacles”. However, fatal victims have a different profile: they are pedestrians, over 60 years old. The most serious accidents occur in greater proportions at nights or weekends, at locations further away from the city center, which suggests behavior associated with high speed driving and the use of psychoactive substances, such as alcohol. The other two studies used data from a survey done with the population of Porto Alegre in 2009. The second study evaluates how socio-demographic characteristics, traffic experience and the information received about the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol, affect risk perception and behavior in the traffic. The results indicate that individuals who have greater risk of dying in traffic, underestimate their own risk and vice versa; and that young people as well as those who have been in an accident or those who spend a lot of time in traffic, have a greater perception of their risk. On the other hand, the risk of alcohol consumption associated with traffic, is perceived better by older people, women, non-drinkers, people without risky behavior, and those who are more aware of the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, risky behavior in traffic, related to alcohol consumption, is inversely proportional to perception of risk and to age. The third study estimated the respondents' willingness to pay ( ) for the reduction in their risk of suffering injuries in a traffic accident, as well as the value of a statistical life ( ), using linear and nonlinear models adjusted by the Box-Cox transformation. The results indicate that the decreases with age and with not using safety devices, but increases with income, exposure to traffic, and the accidents experience, for women and for those who have dependents. The average value elicited by to reduce to zero the risk of severe injuries that result in death, implied a of about R$13.4 million (US$ 7.3 million) - lower, but still a comparable value to that found in developed countries, and studied in Brazil.

Thesis (M.Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2020
Background: Death and economic losses due to road traffic accidents (RTA) are huge global public health and developmental problems and need urgent attention. Each year nearly 1.24 million people die and millions suffer various forms of disability as a result of road accidents. This puts road traffic injuries (RTIs) as the eighth leading cause of death globally and RTIs are set to become the fifth leading cause of death worldwide by the year 2030 unless urgent actions are taken. Aim: In this paper, we investigate factors that contribute to road traffic deaths (RTDs) in the Limpopo province of South Africa using models such as the generalized linear models (GLM) and zero inflated models. Methods: The study was based on retrospective data that comprised of reports of 18,029 road traffic accidents and 4,944 road traffic deaths over the years 2009 – 2015. Generalized linear modelling and zero-inflated models were used to identify factors and determine their relationships to RTDs. Results: The data was split into two categories: deaths that occurred during holidays and those that occurred during non-holiday periods. It was found that the following variables, namely, Monday, human actions, vehicle conditions and vehicle makes, were significant predictors of RTDs during holidays. On the other hand, during non-holiday periods, weekend, Tuesday, Wednesday, national road, provincial road, sedan, LDV, combi and bus were found to be significant predictors of road traffic deaths. Conclusion: GLM techniques, such as the standard Poisson regression model and the negative binomial (NB) model, did little to explain the zero excess, therefore, zero-inflated models, such as zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), were found to be useful in explaining excess zeros. Recommendation: The study recommends that the government should make more human power available during the festive seasons, such as the December holidays, and over weekends.

The diploma thesis Influence of alcohol on road traffic accident rate in the South Bohemian Region by comparison of the years 2008 2012 is aimed at comparing the influence of alcohol on road traffic accidents in the districts of the South Bohemian Region in the period 2008 2012 as well as outlining the effects of road traffic accidents due to alcohol with regard to partial circumstances of particular accidents (according to accident type, accident effects, age of the perpetrators of accidents) in the years 2008 2012. The comparison was based on police statistics of road traffic accident rates of the Regional Police Headquarters for the South Bohemian Region, the Road Traffic Inspectorate in České Budějovice. The thesis attempted to perform a survey of the problems related to accidents caused by driving under the influence of alcohol. The theoretical part deals with two spheres connected with alcohol-related road traffic accidents. The practical part focuses on the effects of the accidents which happened in the South Bohemian Region in the years 2008 2012, and on the effects of accidents caused due to alcohol in the South Bohemian Region in the years 2008 2012.

The success of road safety improvement programs and studies in reducing traffic accidents hinges upon the existence of reliable techniques for the estimation of road safety levels. Accident prediction models are rapidly becoming the preferred mathematical tools for estimating road safety. However, several statistical problems related to accident models need to be addressed. Additionally, there is potential for new model applications that constitute reliable methodologies for conducting certain existing safety studies that currently use earlier inaccurate techniques. The main objective of this thesis is to solve several statistical problems related to accident models and to provide new safety applications of these models. This thesis presents a detailed discussion of several statistical problems related to accident models, namely the problems of model building, identification and removal of model outliers, and recalibration and testing of transferred models. The thesis devises statistical procedures for model building and conducting outlier analysis and presents sufficient evidence in defense of the validity of these procedures. On the issue of model transferability, the thesis presents a statistical method that can be used to test whether an accident model produces reliable safety estimates when transferred for use in different time periods and different regions of space. The thesis also proposes a new procedure for recalibrating transferred models to better suit local conditions. The thesis presents three new safety applications of accident prediction models. The first is a methodology of ranking hazardous locations for priority of treatment. The thesis pinpoints effective ranking criteria and employs accident models in their measurement. The second application is a countermeasure-based procedure for identifying hazardous road locations. It calls for the use of pattern-specific accident models to identify locations that are hazardous with respect to accident patterns that can be targeted by known countermeasures. As such, it represents a cost-effective method of black spot treatment. The third application is a cross-sectional method for evaluating the safety benefits of road improvement measures prior to their implementation. This prior evaluation is necessary since alternative improvement measures are usually considered and must be economically evaluated to identify and implement the alternative possessing the highest benefit-cost ratio.

Fire Rescue Service is territorialized in each region, which means that Fire Rescue Service is present in each region of the Czech Republic as an individual accounting entity. Each accounting entity is obliged to prepare own budget estimate for next year which serves for covering costs related to interventions. Therefore it is beneficial to have an overview about the number of interventions expected in following year. The prediction of the expected interventions should be based utmost on real data from the the last period. Fire Rescue Service units' interventions in traffic accidents are covered from the state budget as well as other performances. The thesis is concerning the statistic survey related to Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents. Specified goals of the thesis: G1) The survey of the development in time of the number of traffic accidents associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents within one month as the unit of time during the last 5 years. It is considered as the survey of the first of selected parameters concerning Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. G2) The survey of the development in time of costs associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents within one month as the unit of time during the last 5 years. It is considered as the survey of the second of selected parameters related to Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. G3) The comparison of the number of interventions and costs, the investigation of the apportionment of the number of interventions and costs in terms of a proper theoretical apportionment. It is considered as the survey concerning the dependence of selected parameters of Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. With regard to a relativelly high number of primary data (entries from about 8 000 traffic accidents in the time period between 7/2010 and 6/2015 in the South Bohemia region, where was always present at least one unit of the South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service), mathematical statistic tools were needed to create a survey of selected parameters of the data file. Determining intervals for individual statistic features is to some extent carried out "by feeling". With regard to it, there was done the sensitivity analysis within which was investigated the influence of minor changes in the number of intervals on apportionment of percent occurrences of monitored statistical features (intervals were determined "by feeling" and based on recommendation from technical literature). For investigation of statistical features were used description statistics and also methods of statistical induction. The information used from technical literature and the interpretation of partial results and conclusions concerning individual sections of the thesis are provided in the section Discussion. The thesis demonstrated that the empirical apportionment of the number of traffic accidents and costs on South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents can be considered as standard. Therefore it is correct to use theoretical findings associated with standard apportionment to work with those data. Also the thesis demonstrated that the number of traffic accidents and costs associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions not only does not decrease but on the contrary increases. It was demonstrated that there is present very high positive correlation between numbers of the traffic accidents and the costs related to South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in single months of the monitored time period. This brings us to a conclusion that the increase of costs related to interventions is caused mainly by the increase of the number of traffic accidents where the units of Fire Rescue Service intervene.

This work describes general view of a traffic accident in order to introdukce non-specific features of traffic accidents. The objective of this work is deeper understanding of this issue, of the difference between the need for improving the participants skills and the repressive measures introduced in the attempt to guarantee the observance of fundamental legal standards.

The main aim of my thesis is the analysis of the traffic accidents and their cause on the roads of the Czech Republic.The first part of my thesis deals with the theoretical outcome of this matter which is necessary for further cover of my work.It is followed up with a practical part in which all statistic data, that had been used for the assessment of the situation,have been worked out.The methods the data have been coverd are the endorsement method, method of sequence and the method of respected sequence. In the frame of this thesis the comparison of the Czech Republic with a chosen EU state has been done. The secondary aim of my thesis is to find out the impact of the accidents on the revenues of the state budget, particularly of the problematic groups that cause the accidents on the roads.In the last part of my thesis there is a summary of all analysed results of the matter and subsequently safety measures for potential improvement of the situation have been done.

My dissertation analyzes the frequency of selected violations of the law in the Czech Republic. In the operation of vehicle on roads that are to blame to a greater or lesser extent in the traffic accident. As a separate chapter in the thesis are fundamental concepts and the individual paragraphs, which are analyzed and used. Also you can find statistics that reflect the evolution of the number of accidents and their consequences. Except resources for the next chapter my diploma papers also show results of lighting, using cell phone and seat belts while driving. Another part is the experimental section. Here are details about my own questionnaire and field measurements. They are transformed into the analytical part of the summarization tables. The synthetic part of thesis compares obtained data in the research and the statistical summary. In the last section, which covers general recommendations for practice are set out possible options which could prevent future violations of the law.

This dissertation called The Statistical Investigation of Time and Economical Development of the Extraordinary Incident Kind Selected deals with traffic accidents on roads within the Czech Republic. The goal of this work is to investigate a time and economical connection of traffic accidents. The theoretical part specifies basic terms which are related to road transport in the Czech Republic and which are mainly based on valid laws in the field of road transportation. There is also deeply analysed the term "traffic accident" which has to gain specific features in order to be classified as a traffic accident. Subsequently, there are also presented and discussed the most common causes of accidents. Impacts of economic damage to the state budget were described by a certified methodology for calculating losses from a traffic accident rate on roads. Within possibilities of a bigger kind of an extraordinary incident during which emergency could be announced, there is described a system of crisis management in transport and an operation of Crisis Management Department of the Ministry of Transport. In the last section of the theoretical part there are summarized the basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics which were used for processing of the practical part of the dissertation. In the practical part three hypotheses were being tested based on the collected data, which was drawn from statistical yearbooks of a traffic accident rate published on the website of the Police of the Czech Republic. The methodology provides basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics to whom the gained data has been subjected. To verify the hypothesis H2 the amounts of damage per a time unit have a distribution close to the normal distribution. It was used within the mathematical statistics of nonparametric testing of hypothesis. Through the non-parametric testing was allowed to prove normality of damage amount in traffic accidents in the period 2009 - 2013. For verification of the hypothesis H1 number of traffic accidents and the amount of damage are positively correlated and hypotheses H3 time development of traffic accidents per one time unit can be expressed by linear regression with negative correlation. Simple linear and correlation dependence was used in the context of mathematical statistics. The aim of the hypotheses H1 and H3 mentioned above was to find out a kind of regression, depending on given statistical features, to find suitable regression function and to determine tightness of correlation using an appropriate coefficient. A negative correlation coefficient was calculated for the hypothesis H1 so it was rejected. This result is possible to comment on the fact that, although there is less material damage, the number of incidents in particular time units does not reflect this fact. For the hypotheses H3 we can conclude that traffic accidents have been declining in a longer time interval and this leads to fulfilment of the goal of the national road safety strategy 2011 - 2020. For the short time period 2009 - 2013 it is not possible to come to the same conclusion and the hypotheses H3 has to be rejected. In the context of a deeper research of the impact of economic damage to our state, it would be good to work e.g. with the amount of money which insurance companies have to pay to persons involved in an accident. We could also work with the amount of costs which the state has to spend on activities of organs of emergency service for dealing with all consequences of any emergencies associated with an accident. Determination of the total amount of economic damage from a traffic accident rate and from a number of traffic accidents helps us to realize the seriousness of this issue. Just as other indicators of traffic safety, economic damage and a number of traffic accidents are important indicators of prevention and effectiveness of traffic-safety measures.

The aim of this thesis was to conduct a statistical survey and the measurement of statistical dependences of time development of the traffic accident rate at transportation of dangerous solid, liquid and gaseous substances, including their total number and also in case of leakage of these substances in a selected region "the Czech Republic". The purpose of the thesis was to verify statistical data, or more precisely, verification of two basic hypotheses H1 and H2, and five sub-hypotheses H11, H12, H13, H14, H15. For these verifications methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics were used, especially regression and correlation analysis in hypothesis H1. To verify hypothesis H2, nonparametric normality test as a technique of mathematical statistics was applied. Verification of hypotheses H1 and their sub-hypotheses H11, H12, H13, H14, H15 enabled to prove linear regression associated with negative correlation within the development of traffic accidents at transportation of dangerous substances in annual units of time (2002 to 2011). Verification of hypothesis H2 enabled to demonstrate normality in distribution of the number of accidents at transportation of dangerous substances within individual months of the monitored period from 2007 to 2011. As benefits of this thesis both the proposal of the sequence of statistical methods for examining the research topic and the application of the mentioned statistical methods to the number of traffic accidents at transportation of dangerous substances can be considered Based on the results of this study, possible follow-up research work may be suggested. A research is proposed which would survey the ways of prevention or other factors leading to negative correlation dependence. Another possibility of follow-up research work could be, for example, statistical surveys and the measurement of statistical dependences in regions of the CR or investigation of the theoretical distribution of the number of traffic accidents at transportation of dangerous substances within a different time unit.

Child pedestrian injury and mortality is an issue of significant public health concern in the city of Johannesburg, Gauteng, in South Africa. Since there is a paucity of studies in the last decade or more on fatal childhood traffic and non-traffic injuries in Johannesburg, this study aspires to address the disproportion in this domain of research, and provide more recent, and comprehensive empirical evidence over a ten-year period. The overarching aim of this study was to describe and examine the magnitude, circumstances, and neighbourhood characteristics of fatal pedestrian injuries among children (0-14 years) in Johannesburg for the period from 2001 to 2010. More specifically, the objectives of the study were: firstly, to provide a comprehensive epidemiological description of the magnitude, trends and occurrence of pedestrian mortality among children; secondly, to describe and examine the epidemiology of child pedestrian mortality in relation to children as motor vehicle passengers; thirdly, to describe and examine child pedestrian mortality in relation to non-traffic injuries, in particular, burns and drowning; and fourthly, to assess the influence of neighbourhood characteristics on child pedestrian mortality. The study conceptualised pedestrian road safety within an ecological systems framework. The study used quantitative descriptive, and multivariate logistic regression methods of analysis to examine child pedestrian mortality data. The study drew on data from the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS) and the Census 2001. The main findings indicated that black, male children aged 5 to 9 years (11.02/100 000) are the most vulnerable, and that mortality occurred predominantly during the afternoons and early evenings (12h00-16h00 and 16h00-21h00), over weekends, during school holidays, and to a lesser extent, during non-holiday months. In addition, neighbourhood characteristics that reflected concentrations of disadvantage, single female-headed households and residentially stable areas were associated with child pedestrian mortality. The study findings highlight the need for critical action in terms of investment in child pedestrian safety research, and appropriate prevention initiatives guided by stringent evidenced-based studies, and the design of safe pedestrian, vehicular and urban environments.
Psychology
D. Phil. (Psychology)

Abstract in English, Tsonga and Zulu
Mitlumbo ya mifambafambo ya le magondzweni i xin’wana xa miringeto (risks) yo biha ku tlula hinkwayo ya swifambo swa le gondzweni emisaveni hinkwayo, leswi yimelaka xiphiqo lexikulu xa swohanyaswin’we-ikhonomi ngopfu-ngopfu eka matiko lama ya ha hluvukaka tanihi Afrika-Dzonga. Ku va ku nyikiwa masungulo yo tiya ya xiikhonomi eka swiboho swa mbekiso ku tirhana na ntlhontlho lowu, i swa nkoka swinene ku hlela ndhurho wa mitlumbo leyi. Mipimanyeto leyi yi tirha tanihi nxopaxopo wa swinghenisiwa swa mbuyelo wa ndhurheriwo ku endlela ku kuma mphakelo wa switirhisiwa wo tirha kahle eka ku nghenelela eka ku tirhana na mitlhontlho leyi vangiwaka hi mitlumbano ya le magondzweni. Tiko ra Afrika-Dzonga a ri nga ri ku pfuxeteni ka mahungu ya mipimanyeto ya midurho ya mitlumbano ya le magondzweni nkarhi na nkarhi, naswona leyi a yi endliwa a yi tirhisa maendlelo lamo soriwa ngopfu yo languta nkoka wa vanhu (human capital). Hikwalaho, mipimanyeto leyi nga kona a yi nga ta va leyi tshembekaka eka ku kunguhata na ku pimaniseka na mipimanyeto ya matiko man’wana. Hi le ka ku landzelela vundzhaku lebyi laha dyondzo leyi yi nga tumbuluka na ku kombisa matirhiselo ya rimba ra ntirho wo katsa (hybrid) ku kambela ndhurho wa mitlumbo ya swifambo swa le magondzweni eAfrika-Dzonga. Rimba leri ri tirhisa endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu na ku pfumela ku hakela (willingness-to-pay), eka dyondzo yi ri yin’we. Mipimanyeto ya midurho ya nkoka wa vanhu ya laveka ku va yi pfuna eka ku kunguhata leswaku yi tlakusa swinenenene swihumesiwa swa rixaka, loko hala tlhelo mipimanyeto yo pfumela ku hakela yona yi ri yona yi fanelaka swinene eka ku pfuneta minghenelelo yo tlakusa nhlayiseko wa vanhu hi ku hunguta ku vaviseka na ku fa. Endlelo ro pfumela ku hakela ri tirhisa maendlelo ya swo ka swi nga ri swa makete (contingent valuation) na ya maendlelo yo langa (preference). Khwexinere yo valanga leyi a yi ri na maendlelo yo ka ya nga ri ya swa makete na swilangiwa leswi a swi boxiwile, yi tirhisiwile hi magoza mambirhi ku sampula vaanguri va 273 eka ntirho wa swo tleketla. Eka mhaka ya endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu, mipimanyeto ya ndhurho eka xiviko xa 2016 xa Cost of Crashes in South Africa yi hundzuluxiwile hi ku katsa inifulexini, ku tirhisiwa mpimo wa 2017 wa 5.3% ku kuma mipimanyeto ya ndhurho ya 2017. Dyondzo leyi yi paluxile leswaku endlelo ro kongomisa eka nkoka wa vanhu ri kayiveta ku vona ndhurho wa mitlumbo ya le magondzweni. Dyondzo leyi yi hoxa xandla eka ntsengo wa vutivi hi ku tirhisa endlelo ro languta nkoka wa vanhu na endlelo ro pfumela ku hakela eka dyondzo yi ri yin’we ku kombisa ntirhiseko wa endlelo leri ra nkatso (hybrid)/nhlanganiso eka xiyimo xa Afrika-Dzonga. Ndzavisiso wa nkarhi lowu taka wu fanele ku engeta dyondzo leyi hi sampulu leyi humaka eka swifundzakulu hinkwaswo swa nkaye swa Afrika-Dzonga, leswaku mipimanyeto ya ndhurho yi yimela vanhu va tiko hinkwaro.
Road traffic crashes are one of the worst risks of road mobility worldwide, representing a huge socio-economic problem particularly in developing countries such as South Africa. In order to provide a sound economic basis for investment decisions to address this challenge, it is critical to assess the cost of these crashes. These estimates serve cost-benefit analysis inputs to facilitate a more efficient resources allocation for interventions to address the challenge posed by road crashes. South Africa has not been updating crash cost estimates on a regular basis, and those that were conducted used the much criticised human capital approach. Therefore, the available estimates could not be relied upon for planning purposes and comparison with the estimates of other countries. It is against this background that this study developed and illustrated the application of a hybrid framework for assessing the cost of road traffic crashes in South Africa. The framework uses the human capital approach and the willingness-to-pay approach in one study. Human capital approach cost estimates are needed to inform planning to maximize the national output, while the willingness-to-pay estimates are more suitable when the main concern is to inform interventions to increase social welfare by reducing injuries and fatalities. The willingness-to-pay approach uses the contingent valuation and the stated preference methods. A survey questionnaire with contingent valuation and stated preference questions was administered in two phases to a sample of 273 respondents within the transport industry. For the human capital approach, the cost estimates in the 2016 Cost of Crashes in South Africa report were adjusted for inflation using the 2017 rate of 5.3% to obtain 2017 cost estimates. This study revealed that the human capital approach underestimates the cost of road crashes. The study contributes to the body of knowledge by using the human capital approach and the willingness-to-pay approach in one study to illustrate the applicability of this hybrid/ combination within the South African context. Future research needs to replicate this study on a sample drawn from all nine provinces of South Africa, so that the cost estimates are representative of the country’s population.
Ukuphazamiseka komgwaqo kungenye yezingozi ezimbi kakhulu zokuhamba komgwaqo emhlabeni jikelele, ezimele inkinga enkulu yenhlalo nezomnotho ikakhulukazi emazweni asathuthuka njengeNingizimu Afrika. Ukuze unikeze isisekelo sezomnotho esizwakalayo ezinqumeni zokutshala izimali ukubhekana nale nselele, kubalulekile ukuhlola izindleko zalezi zingozi. Lezi zilinganiso zisebenza njengeziphakamiso zokuhlaziywa kwezindleko zokuhlomula ukuze kube lula ukunikezwa kwezinsiza ezenzelwe ukuxazulula inselele ebangelwa ukuphazamiseka komgwaqo. INingizimu Afrika ayizange ibuyekeze ukulinganisa izindleko zezingozi njalo, futhi lezo ezenziwa zisebenzise indlela enkulu yokugxeka ukusebenzisa abantu. Ngakho-ke, izilinganiso ezitholakalayo azikwazanga ukuthenjelwa kuzona ngezinjongo zokuhlela nokuqhathaniswa nezilinganiso zamanye amazwe. Lokhu kuphikisana nalesi sigaba ukuthi lolu cwaningo lusungulwe futhi luboniswe ukusetshenziswa kohlaka oluxubile lokuhlola izindleko zokuphazamiseka komgwaqo eNingizimu Afrika. Uhlaka lusebenzisa indlela yokusebenzisa abantu kanye nendlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha ocwaningweni olulodwa. Ukulinganiselwa kwezindleko zokusebenzisa abantu kuyadingeka ukuze kwaziswe ukuhlela ukwandisa umkhiqizo kazwelonke, kanti ukulinganiselwa kokuzimisela-ukukhokhela kukulungele kakhulu ukwazisa ukungenelela ukwandisa inhlalakahle yomphakathi ngokunciphisa ukulimala nokubulawa kwabantu. Indlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha isebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kwesilinganiso kanye nezindlela okukhethwa ngazo. Imibuzo yokuhlola ngokuhlaziywa kwesilinganiso kanye nemibuzo ekhethwe ngayo yenziwa ngezigaba ezimbili embonakalisweni yabaphendulile abangama-273 embonini yezokuthutha. Ngokwendlela yokusebenzisa abantu, izindleko ezilinganiselwa ku-2016 Izindleko Zokushayisana eNingizimu Afrika kubikwa ukuthi zalungiselwa ukwenyuka kwamandla emali, kusetshenziswa isilinganiso sango-2017 esingu-5.3% ukuthola izindleko zango-2017. Lolu cwaningo luveze ukuthi indlela yokusebenzisa abantu ithatha kancane izindleko zokuphazamiseka komgwaqo. Ucwaningo lunomthelela emzimbeni wolwazi ngokusebenzisa indlela yokusebenzisa abantu kanye nendlela yokuzimisela-ukukhokha ocwaningweni olulodwa ukukhombisa ukufaneleka kwalesi sivumelwano / inhlanganisela ngaphakathi komongo waseNingizimu Afrika. Ucwaningo lwesikhathi esizayo ludinga ukuphindaphinda lolu cwaningo embonakalisweni othathwe kuzo zonke izifundazwe eziyisishiyagalolunye zaseNingizimu Afrika, ukuze ukulinganiswa kwezindleko kummele abantu bezwe
Business Management
D. Phil. (Management Studies)