Dissertations / Theses: 'Travel Demand Assignment Models'

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Abdelghany, Ahmed F. "Dynamic micro-assignment of travel demand with activity/trip chains." Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International Access restricted to users with UT Austin EID, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3023538.

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Goldfarb, Daniel Scott. "An Evaluation of Assignment Algorithms and Post-Processing Techniques for Travel Demand Forecast Models." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/31631.

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The purpose of this research project was to evaluate the techniques outlined in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program Technical Report 255 Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design (NCHRP-255), published in 1982 by the Transportation Research Board. This evaluation was accomplished by using a regional travel demand forecast model calibrated and validated for the year 1990 and developing a highway forecast for the year 2000. The forecasted volumes along the Capital Beltway (I-495/I-95) portion located in the State of Maryland were compared to observed count data for that same year. A series of statistical measures were used to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of the techniques documented in NCHRP-255. The primary research objectives were: Â·To critically evaluate the ability of a regional travel demand forecast model to accurately forecast freeway corridor volumes by comparing link forecast volumes to the actual count data. Â·To evaluate and determine the significance of post-processing techniques as outlined in NCHRP-255. The most important lesson learned from this research is that although it was originally written in 1982, NCHRP-255 is still a very valuable resources for supplementing travel demand forecast model output. The â rawâ model output is not reliable enough to be used directly for highway design, operational analysis, nor alternative or economic evaluations. The travel demand forecast model is a tool that is just part of the forecasting process. It is not a turn-key operation, and travel demand forecasts cannot be done without the application of engineering judgment. Master of Science

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Lu, Chenxi. "Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models." FIU Digital Commons, 2010. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/237.

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This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

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Zorlu, Fikret. "Traffic Assignment In Transforming Networks Case Study: Ankara." Phd thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12607102/index.pdf.

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This study investigates the relevance of dynamic traffic assignment models under uncertainty. In the last years researchers have dealt with advanced traffic control systems since road provision is not regarded as a proper solution to relieve congestion. Dynamic assignment which is an essential component of investment planning is regarded as a new research area in the field of urban transportation. In this study the performance of dynamic traffic assignment method, which incorporates time dependent flow, is compared with that of static model. Research outcomes showed that dynamic assignment method provides more reliable outcomes in predicting traffic flow therefore its solution algorithm is integrated to conventional four staged model. Literature survey showed that researches have hot provided an appropriate framework for transforming networks. This study investigates travel demand variations in a dynamic city and discuses possible strategies to respond dynamic and uncertain properties of individuals&rsquo travel behavior. Research findings showed that both external and internal uncertainties have significant influences on reliability of the model. Recommended procedure aims reducing uncertainty in order to improve reliability of model. Finally, the relevancy of the problem and the applicability of recently developed methods are discussed in Ankara case.

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Marletta, Stefano. "Microsimulazione di Reti Stradali in presenza di Sistemi di Infomobilità." Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/1663.

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Il presente studio si prepone di esaminare l effettiva capacità da parte dei moderni softwares di simulazione del traffico di implementare la presenza di sistemi di disseminazione dell informazione in tempo reale ed al contempo indagare, attraverso la simulazione, gli effetti dell informazione sull utenza dei sistema di trasporto, con riferimento al solo modo di trasporto su veicolo privato.

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An, Meiwu. "INTEGRATION OF THE REGRESSION-BASED LAND USE MODEL AND THE COMBINED TRIP DISTRIBUTION-ASSIGNMENT TRANSPORTATION MODEL." UKnowledge, 2010. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_diss/796.

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Regional growth caused the emergence of traffic congestion and pollution in the past few decades, which have started to affect small urban areas. These problems are not only related to transportation system design but also to land use planning. There has been growing recognition that the relationship between land use and transportation needs to be understood and analyzed in a consistent and systematic way. Integrated urban models have recently been introduced and implemented in several metropolitan areas to systematically examine the relationship between land use and transportation. The general consensus in the field of integrated urban models is that each model has its own limitations and assumptions because they are each designed for different application purposes. This dissertation proposes a new type of methodology to integrate the regression-based land use model and the combined trip distribution-assignment transportation model that can be applied to both metropolitan areas and small urban areas. The proposed integrated land use and transportation model framework has three components: the regression-based land use model, the combined trip distributionassignment transportation model, and the interaction between these two models. The combined trip distribution-assignment model framework provides the platform to simultaneously integrate the transportation model with the land use model. The land use model is developed using an easy-to-implement method in terms of correlation and regression analysis. The interaction between the land use model and the transportation model is examined by two model frameworks: feedback model framework and simultaneous model framework. The feedback model framework solves the land use model and the transportation model iteratively. The simultaneous model framework brings the land use model and the transportation models into one optimization program after introducing the used path set. Both the feedback model and the simultaneous model can be solved to estimate link flow, origin-destination (OD) trips, and household distribution with the results satisfying network equilibrium conditions. The proposed integrated model framework has an “affordable and easy-toimplement” land use model; it can be performed in small urban areas with limited resources. The model applications show that using the proposed integrated model framework can help decision-makers and planners in preparing for the future of their communities.

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Börjesson, Maria. "Communication technology and travel demand models." Licentiate thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2003. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-1640.

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Transportation planners have traditionally focused onphysical travel only, and disregarded the fact that other modesof communication may influence travel demand. However, moderntelecommunications are rapidly increasing the accessibility toactivities that previously only could be reached by physicaltransportation. This development calls for methods to analyseinteractions between telecommunications and transport systems.The objective of this thesis is to accomplish a betterunderstanding of if and how impacts of information technologycould be implemented in travel demand models. An important partof this issue is to investigate what kind of data that isneeded.This thesis also aims at investigating whether theCommunication Survey, KOM, collected by Swedish Institute forTransport and Communications, SIKA, can be used to improvetransport modelling with respect to how moderntelecommunications influence travel demand. KOM is a one-daytravel and communication diary survey, including information onthe respondents telecommuting habits as well as socio-economicstatus. One problem was the small sample size in KOM, whichmade the analyses uncertain. Since KOM is collected on a yearlybasis, it is still possible to apply similar analysis methodswithin a few years, using a larger data set, which might enableextended analyses. The small sample in KOM available to date isbest suited for general descriptive analyses of communicationpatterns in Sweden. The main conclusions of the paper aretherefore connected to the methods and future datacollection.The thesis includes three papers. The first paper tested amodel approach that assumes substitution between travel andnon-travel based communication, using the KOM database. Traveldemand models are in general constructed as nested logit modelswith frequency, mode and destination choice levels. In thepaper, non-travel based modes of communication were included inthe choice set of such a model. The non-travel based modes ofcommunication considered were Internet (and e-mail), ordinarymail and telephone contacts. The model was developed for postand bank activities only, since that was the only activity forwhich the numbers of contacts and trips were large enough toallow model estimation. Several conclusions could be drawn.Describing the utility of the non-travel based alternatives isdifficult and needs more research. The analysisis also verysensitive to how activities are defined. It is furtheressential that the data collection is more process orientedthan traditional cross-sectional data is when analysing traveland telecommunications interactions. That is, habits ofperforming particular activities, including both trips anddifferent types of contacts, must be studied. The second andthird papers investigate telecommuting. As a first step toreach the goal of forecasting telecommuting, the second paperexamined the characteristics of current telecommuters by use ofKOM. This was mainly accomplished by estimating a telecommutingadoption model of logit type. However, only 122 employees outof 7578 actually telecommutes full days at home. Thesetelecommuters work primarily in information- and service-basedindustrial sectors concerned with computers, finance orcommunication. The difficulties in describing the utility ofthe telecommunications based alternatives (representingno travel) concerned also the telecommutingadoption model. Also impacts on travel from telecommuting wereinvestigated. Comparing the average commuting distance showedthat employees who exclusively telecommute full days havelonger commuting distances than others, but that othertelecommuters do not have longer average commuting distances.Telecommuting in general does not seem to be influenced by lowaccessibility to the labour market.The third paper used data collected from a working sitewithin the company Ericsson, located in the office district ofNacka Strand in Stockholm during the autumn 2002. Thetelecommuting frequency was substantially higher at Ericssonthan in the workforce as a whole. The propensity to adopttelecommuting was modelled as a function of socio-economicvariables and access to technical equipment, work tasksuitability and management attitudes, as perceived by theemployees. The focuswas to identify tools that the company canuse to promote telecommuting, and to find incentives for thecompany to promote telecommuting. Technical equipment, suitablework tasks and managers attitude were identified as constraintsfor telecommuting. The employees also perceived that theybecame more efficient and saved time when telecommuting.

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Kim, Kihong. "Recent Advances in Activity-Based Travel Demand Models for Greater Flexibility." PDXScholar, 2018. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4225.

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Most existing activity-based travel demand models are implemented in a tour-based microsimulation framework. Due to the significant computational and data storage benefits, the demand microsimulation allows a greater amount of flexibility in terms of demographic market segmentation, temporal scale, and spatial resolution, and thus the models can represent a wider range of travel behavior aspects associated with various policies and scenarios. This dissertation proposes three innovative methodologies, one for each of the three key dimensions, to fulfill the greater level of details toward a more mature state of activity-based travel demand models.

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Jung, Sungyong. "Spatial variability of travel time coefficients in travel demand models and its implication for transportation equilibrium /." The Ohio State University, 1991. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1487758680162211.

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Jiao, Xihe. "A new travel demand model for outdoor recreation trips." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/285006.

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Travel to outdoor recreational spaces belongs to a general class of research questions for understanding destination and travel mode choices. In travel demand modelling, discrete choice models (DCMs) have been applied to understand and predict a wide range of choices, such as how people choose among alternative destinations for jobs, homes, shopping, personal services etc. Surprisingly, DCMs have rarely been used to understand and model travel to outdoor recreational spaces. In the current literature for modelling travel to outdoor recreational spaces, the established models are Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) models, such as what was used in the UK NEA studies. However, these NBR models were developed to assess the effects of travel to outdoor recreational spaces at a national level, and they are not intended for assessing choices of individual sites. One reason for this is, as identified by previous studies, is that compared with the DCMs, the NBR models have certain limits on estimating people's choice behaviours. There is, therefore, no existing model that can represent and predict how people choose to travel to outdoor recreational spaces. Given the importance of outdoor recreational activities to urban land use planning and public health, this is a clear gap in the field. The aim of this study is to develop a new travel demand model capable of representing and predicting travel to individual outdoor recreational sites. This is achieved by answering four main research questions: First, how to build the new model for outdoor recreational travel? Secondly, is the estimation accurate enough? Thirdly, to what extent can the new model be transferred to destinations outside the case study area? And, finally, how can city planners and designers use this new method? The new model draws upon ideas from random utility theory that underlies the conventional travel demand models to represent trip generation, trip distribution and mode choice. This research follows the standard modelling procedure: data collection and preliminary analysis, model calibration, model validation and model application. The data are collated from a wide range of sources that, importantly for model transferability, cover all areas in England. The new model has been calibrated for a case study area which spanned 14 selected districts in the North-West region. Validation of the new model is based on estimating the numbers of trips to two outdoor recreational sites (Wigg Island and Wigan Flashes) and to nine English National Parks where data on visitor trips exist. In the final stage of the research, the new model is applied to estimate the changes that would arise from planning and design interventions in existing (Wigg Island and Moore Nature Reserve) and proposed (Arpley Country Park) sites. At the end of this process, it is possible to show that the new model can predict the number of trips to individual destinations and that the model can be transferred to other outdoor recreation sites. Furthermore, the new model presented here is capable of predicting the changes in the volume and catchment of visits to an existing green space after land use planning or urban ecological interventions. This is a completely new theoretical model that is focused on understanding and quantifying the travel choices to outdoor recreation sites, which can inform decision makers by forecasting changes in outdoor recreational travel demand, according to different planning scenarios.

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Butler, Melody Nicole. "An assessment tool for the appropriateness of activity-based travel demand models." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/45948.

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As transportation policies are changing to encourage alternative modes of transportation to reduce congestion problems and air quality impacts, more planning organizations are considering or implementing activity-based travel demand models to forecast future travel patterns. The proclivity towards operating activity-based models is the capability to model disaggregate travel data to better understand the model results that are generated with respect to the latest transportation policy implementations. This thesis first examines the differences between the two major modeling techniques used in the United States and then describes the assessment tool that was developed to recommend whether a region should convert to the advanced modeling procedures. This tool consists of parameters that were decided upon based on their known linkages to the advantages of activity-based models.

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Hu, Xianbiao, Yi-Chang Chiu, and Jeff Shelton. "Development of a behaviorally induced system optimal travel demand management system." TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/622793.

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The basic design concept of most advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) is to present generic information to travelers, leaving travelers to react to the information in their own way. This passive way of managing traffic by providing generic traffic information makes it difficult to predict the outcome and may even incur an adverse effect, such as overreaction (also referred to as the herding effect). Active traffic and demand management (ATDM) is another approach that has received continual attention from both academic research and real-world practice, aiming to effectively influence people's travel demand, provide more travel options, coordinate between travelers, and reduce the need for travel. The research discussed in this article deals with how to provide users with a travel option that aims to minimize the marginal system impact that results from this routing. The goal of this research is to take better advantage of the available real-time traffic information provided by ATIS, to further improve the system level traffic condition from User Equilibrium (UE), or a real-world traffic system that is worse than UE, toward System Optimal (SO), and avoid passively managing traffic. A behaviorally induced, system optimal travel demand management model is presented to achieve this goal through incremental routing. Both analytical derivation and numerical analysis have been conducted on Tucson network in Arizona, as well as on the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) network in Austin, TX. The outcomes of both studies show that our proposed modeling framework is promising for improving network traffic conditions toward SO, and results in substantial economic savings.

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Scorbureanu, Alexandrina-Ioana. "Discrete choice models applied to travel demand analysis : focus on risk and heterogeneity." Thesis, Cachan, Ecole normale supérieure, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012DENS0044.

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La thèse se propose d'intégrer deux approches économiques fondamentales à l'étude de l'économie régionale et de la politique économique des transports en particulier: i) un approche théorique, fondée sur des micromodèles analytiques et soutenue par des applications des méthodes de simulation numérique, et ensuite, ii) un approche empirique pour tester des hypothèses théorétiques. La perspective de microéconomie sur les problématiques et le fonctionnement des mécanismes des transports privés sont, au même temps, nécessaires et ardues à modéliser. Parmi les nombreuses problématiques étudiés dans le cadre de cet domaine de recherche il vaut la peine de mentionner: la taxation des routes, la concurrence parfaite et oligopolistique entre les opérateurs que anime le système des transports privées et de marchandises, la congestion des routes et le comportement des usagers face à l'incertitude relative aux temps de trajet où encore, le processus de décision en matière de transports au sein des ménages. L'approche micro-fondée liée aux problématiques ci-dessus a été intégrée au sein de cet étude avec une vision empirique, menée à l'analyse de l'ensemble des politiques de plani cation au niveau régional et urbain. Les deux applications empiriques présentées montrent deux nouvelles méthodologies d'étude concernant deux problématiques classiques: i) le choix modale, dans une optique de décision conjointe observée sur un échantillon des couples résidents en Ile-de-France et, ii) le choix de route en Moyen Orient, où les temps de trajet sont incertains et dépends d'un scenario politique incertain au niveau macroéconomique. L'intégration des deux approches est réalisée dans le cadre de cette thèse ayant comme exigence celle de mieux répondre aux questions concrètes et actuelles de la recherche européenne, ainsi que pour augmenter la palette des débouchées applicatives des modèles théoriques développées dans la littérature récente This thesis aims to integrate two fundamental approaches to the study of regional economics and the transport policy: i) a theoretical approach based on analytic models supported by numerical simulation and ii) an empirical approach to test theoretical assumptions. The microeconomic perspective represents a challenging and a complex task at the same time. Some of the open issues at the center of debate are: the taxation of roads, perfect and imperfect competition among the networks supporting private trips, congestion pricing and the attitude towards risky outcomes as uncertain travel times, the decision making process and resource sharing among different members of a household. The micro approach has been integrated with two empirical experiments in which we propose new approaches to study two traditional problems: i) modal choice, by testing the jointness of decision making on a sample of active couples from Ile-de-France, and ii) route choice in the Middle East - a context in which the travel time, as an input of the decision process, is characterized by uncertainty and depends on the political scenario at the macro level

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Roberts, Craig Arnold. "Modeling the relationships between microscopic and macroscopic travel activity on freeways : bridging the gap between current travel demand models and emerging mobile emission models." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/32873.

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Kressner, Josephine D. "Leveraging targeted marketing data in travel demand modeling: validation and applications." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/51870.

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To date, the collection of comprehensive household travel data has been a challenge for most metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs) due mainly to high costs. Urban population growth, the expansion of metropolitan regions, and the general unwillingness of the public to complete surveys conflict with limited public funds. The purpose of this research is to leverage targeted marketing data, sometimes referred to as consumer data or just simply marketing data, for travel demand modeling applications. This research reveals a first step in exploring the use of targeted marketing data for representing population characteristics of a region. Four studies were completed: an aggregate validation, a household-level validation for hard-to-reach population groups, an airport passenger model, and a residential location choice model. The two validation studies of this work suggest that targeted marketing data are similar to U.S. Census data at small geographic levels for basic demographic and socioeconomic information. The studies also suggest that the existing coverage errors are at least similar, if not lower than, the levels of those in household travel surveys used today to build travel demand models. The two application studies of this work highlight the benefits of the targeted marketing data over traditional household travel surveys and U.S. Census data particularly well, including the additional behavioral information available at the household-level and the very large sample sizes. These results suggest that the combination of targeted marketing data with other third-party and non-traditional data could be particularly powerful. It offers tremendous opportunities to enhance, or even transform, existing travel demand modeling systems and data collection practices. Inexpensive, up-to-date, and detailed data would allow researchers and decision-makers alike to better understand travel behavior and to be more equipped to make important transportation-related decisions that affect our lives each day.

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Raadsen, Mark. "Aggregation and decomposition methods in traffic assignment: towards consistent and efficient planning models in a multi-scale environment." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/18186.

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Transport models adopt a simplified version of reality to model the movement of people within a transport system. This simplification limits the accuracy of any model. This research focuses on developing novel techniques that, depending on the application context, try to maximise the level of simplification given the minimum result accuracy that is required. To do so, we explore both aggregation and decomposition methods. Besides maximising simplification, we also investigate the requirements to ensure consistency between models that operate in the same spatial domain. In this, so called, multi-scale setting, it is paramount that differences in results between models can be attributed to a particular set of simplifying assumptions. To date, hardly any efforts have been made to formalise, or assess the conditions that need to be satisfied in order to achieve this much desired consistency. The focus of this work is therefore twofold; (i) exploit the combination of both model and application characteristics to achieve the best possible result with the least amount of computational burden, (ii) develop methodology to construct transport model representations in a multi-scale environment following the identified conditions that guarantee consistency between various model granularities.

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MORANDI, Valentina. "Linear programming models for a fair and efficient traffic assignment in congested road networks." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Bergamo, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10446/77251.

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Solving the road congestion problem is one of the major issues in modern cities since it causes time wasting, pollution, higher industrial costs and huge road maintenance costs. Among possible congestion avoidance methods, traffic assignment is a valuable choice since it does not involve huge investments to expand the road network. Traffic assignments are traditionally devoted to two main perspectives on which the well-known Wardropian principles are inspired : the user equilibrium (user's perspective) and the system optimum (system perspective). User equilibrium is a user-driven traffic assignment in which each user chooses the most convenient path selfishly. It guarantees that fairness among users is respected since, when the equilibrium is reached, all users sharing the same origin and destination will experience the same travel time. The main drawback in a user equilibrium is that the system total travel time is not minimized. On the other hand, the system optimum is a system-wide traffic assignment in which drivers are routed on the network in such a way the total travel time is minimized but users might experience travel times that are higher than the other users travelling from the same origin to the same destination. Thus, there are drawbacks in using one of the two assignments that can be partially overcome by applying users' fairness considerations while minimizing a system-oriented objective. In the last decade, few attempts have been done to present a users' needs and system efficiency trade-off traffic assignment with non-linear programming techniques. In this thesis linear programming models for a fair and efficient traffic assignment in congested road networks are presented.

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Ernst, Wolfgang F. "The economic rationale for stochastic urban transport models and travel behaviour : a mathematical programming approach to quantitative analysis with Perth data." UWA Business School, 2003. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0004.

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[Formulae and special characters can only be approximated here. Please see the pdf version of the abstract for an accurate reproduction.] This thesis reviews, extends and applies to urban traffic analysis the entropy concept of Shannon and Luce's mathematical psychology in a fairly complex and mathematically demanding model of human decision making, if it is solved as a deeply nested structure of logit calculus. Recognising consumers' different preferences and the universal propensity to seek the best choice when going to some desired goal (k), a transparent mathematical program (MP) is developed: the equivalent of a nested multinomial logit model without its inherent computational difficulty. The MP model makes a statistical assessment of individual decisions based on a randomised (measurable) utility within a given choice structure: some path through a diagram (Rk, Dk), designed a priori, of a finite number of sequential choices. The Equivalence Theorem (ET) formalises the process and states a non-linear MP with linear constraints that maximises collective satisfaction: utility plus weighted entropy, where the weight (1/θn) is a behavioural parameter to be calibrated in each case, eg for the Perth CBD. An optimisation subject to feasible routes through the (Rk, Dk) network thus captures the rational behaviour of consumers on their individually different best-choice decision paths towards their respective goals (k). This theory has been applied to urban traffic assignment before: a Stochastic User Equi-librium (SUE). What sets this thesis apart is its focus on MP models that can be solved with standard Operations Research software (eg MINOS), models for which the ET is a conditio sine qua non. A brief list of SUE examples in the literature includes Fisk's logit SUE model in (impractically many) route flows. Dial's STOCH algorithm obviates path enumeration, yet is a logit multi-path assignment procedure, not an MP model; it is nei-ther destination oriented nor an optimisation towards a SUE. A revision of Dial's method is provided, named STOCH[k], that computes primal variables (node and link flows) and Lagrangian duals (the satisfaction difference n→k). Sheffi & Powell presented an unconstrained optimisation problem, but favoured a probit SUE, defying closed formulae and standard OR software. Their model corresponds to the (constrained) dual model here, yet the specifics of our primary MP model and its dual are possible only if one restricts himself to logit SUE models, including the ET, which is logit-specific. A real world application needs decomposition, and the Perth CBD example is iteratively solved by Partial Linearisation, switching from (measured) disutility minimisation to Sheffi & Powell's Method of Successive Averages near the optimum. The methodology is demonstrated on the Perth Central Business District (CBD). To that end, parameter Θ is calibrated on Main Roads' traffic count data over the years 1997/98 and 1998/99. The method is a revision of Liu & Fricker's simultaneous estimation of not only Θ but an appropriate trip matrix also. Our method handles the more difficult variable costs (congestion), incomplete data (missing observations) and observation errors (wrong data). Finally, again based on Main Roads' data (a sub-area trip matrix), a Perth CBD traffic assignment is computed, (a) as a logit SUE and - for comparison - (b) as a DUE (using the PARTAN method of Florian, Guélat and Spiess). The results are only superficially similar. In conclusion, the methodology has the potential to replace current DUE models and to deepen transport policy analysis, taking into account individual behaviour and a money-metric utility that quantifies 'social benefits', for instance in a cost-benefit-analysis.

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Howard, Eric John. "Bring the form back to planning: Using urban form characteristics to improve the predictability of transportation mode choice models." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32014.

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The financial and environmental effects of traffic congestion and automobile-centric air pollution continue to be problems that must be addressed within the United States. In response, travel demand management (TDM) has emerged as a potential way to reduce automobile-based travel in order to minimize these effects. TDM strategies are highly dependent on specific urban form characteristics such as bicycle lanes, sidewalks, or transit facilities. A current gap exists in the analytical tools available to transportation planners when evaluating TDM projects. The standard transportation models do not take into account urban form characteristics in a systematic way. These characteristics play an import role in an individualâ s selection of walking, bicycling, or transit based travel modes. This gap needs to be filled in order to evaluate TDM projects with the same decision-making rigor that is applied to road expansion projects. The purpose of this project is to develop an enhanced transportation mode choice model that presents a systematic approach for incorporating urban form characteristics. This approach determines which elements of urban form have the strongest influence on transportation mode choice behavior. This work is being done in conjunction with the Roanoke Valley Allegany Metropolitan Planning Organization as a way to evaluate the potential of TDM projects in promoting non-automobile forms of travel within the Roanoke region. This approach to developing an enhanced transportation mode choice model is a step forward in address the gap between TDM strategies and the tools needed to evaluate them. Master of Urban and Regional Planning

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Tringides, Constantinos A. "Alternative formulations of joint model systems of departure time choice and mode choice for non-work trips." [Tampa, Fla.] : University of South Florida, 2004. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/SFE0000240.

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Nehra, Ram S. "Modeling time space prism constraints in a developing country context." [Tampa, Fla.] : University of South Florida, 2004. http://purl.fcla.edu/fcla/etd/SFE0000299.

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MacFarlane, Gregory Stuart. "Using big data to model travel behavior: applications to vehicle ownership and willingness-to-pay for transit accessibility." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/51804.

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The transportation community is exploring how new "big'' databases constructed by companies or public administrative agencies can be used to better understand travelers' behaviors and better predict travelers' responses to various transportation policies. This thesis explores how a large targeted marketing database containing information about individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics, current residence attributes, and previous residential locations can be used to investigate research questions related to individuals' transportation preferences and the built environment. The first study examines how household vehicle ownership may be shaped by, or inferred from, previous behavior. Results show that individuals who have previously lived in dense ZIP codes or ZIP codes with more non-automobile commuting options are more likely to own fewer vehicles, all else equal. The second study uses autoregressive models that control for spatial dependence, correlation, and endogeneity to investigate whether investments in public transit infrastructure are associated with higher home values. Results show that willingness-to-pay estimates obtained from the general spatial Durbin model are less certain than comparable estimates obtained through ordinary least squares. The final study develops an empirical framework to examine a housing market's resilience to price volatility as a function of transportation accessibility. Two key modeling frameworks are considered. The first uses a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the relationship between a home's value, appreciation, and price stability while controlling for endogenous missing regressors. The second uses a latent class model that considers all these attributes simultaneously, but cannot control for endogeneity.

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Okrah, Matthew Bediako [Verfasser], Gebhard [Akademischer Betreuer] [Gutachter] Wulfhorst, Rolf [Gutachter] Moeckel, and Markus [Gutachter] Friedrich. "Handling Non-Motorized Trips in Macroscopic Travel Demand Models : Calculating Intrazonal Impedances and Identifying an Appropriate Level of Spatial Resolution / Matthew Bediako Okrah ; Gutachter: Rolf Moeckel, Markus Friedrich, Gebhard Wulfhorst ; Betreuer: Gebhard Wulfhorst." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1126115819/34.

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Tandel, Maria da Conceição Farias Freitas. "Geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos: modelo individual com a inclusão da influência das características do domicílio." Universidade de São Paulo, 1997. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18137/tde-02022018-151715/.

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Um dos enfoques mais utilizados na modelagem de geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos é a desagregação em nível de domicílios. Esta tese oferece razões lógicas e fortes evidências estatísticas para substituir modelos baseados em domicílios, introduzindo modelos desagregados em nível de indivíduos incorporando a influência das características e da estrutura do domicílio. Estes modelos provêm um considerável avanço sobre as práticas tradicionais. Um estudo de caso foi conduzido na região metropolitana de São Paulo - SP. Utilizou-se informação em nível individual, através de algumas variáveis disponíveis na pesquisa origem/destino de 1987 da Cia. do Metropolitano de São Paulo. Foi possível verificar várias vantagens em relação aos modelos tradicionais, bem como responder várias críticas aos modelos atuais. Analisou-se também os erros obtidos com o modelo individual com e sem a influência das características e estrutura domiciliares. One approach that is widely used to conduct the urban passenger trip generation modelling is the disaggregate household based model. This thesis offers logical reasons and strong statistical evidences to replace household based models, indroducing individual disaggregate models, incorporating the influence of household characteristics and structure. These models represent a significant improvement over tradicional practice. A case study was conducted using data from metropolitan region of Sao Paulo City, Sao Paulo State. Information at individual levei was used, tluough some variables available in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company, 1987 origin/destination research. It was possible to verify several advantages in relation to traditional models as well as to answer several criticisms to the current models. It was also analysed errors obtained in the individual models with and without the influence of household characteristics and structure.

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Barcellos, Thaís Mendonça. "Não são só 20 centavos: efeitos sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo devido a redução na tarifa de ônibus financiada pelo aumento da CIDE nos combustíveis da cidade de São Paulo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-23092014-135716/.

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Em junho de 2013, o reajuste de R$ 0,20 na tarifa de ônibus gerou uma série de manifestações populares no país que acabaram fazendo alguns governos, como o da cidade de São Paulo, voltarem atrás e arcarem com essa diferença com as empresas de ônibus. Visto isso, o prefeito de São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, propôs uma política de municipalização de um tributo imposto sobre a gasolina, a CIDE, para financiar o transporte público urbano. Nesse contexto, foi encomendada uma pesquisa a Fundação Getúlio Vargas para responder a magnitude do impacto desse subsídio cruzado entre usuários do transporte privado e coletivo. Esse trabalho utiliza o resultado encontrado por essa pesquisa para responder qual o efeito sobre o tráfego da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo utilizando dados da Pesquisa de Origem e Destino de 2007. Os resultados encontrados mostram que a política de subsídio cruzado proporciona um baixo deslocamento no fluxo dos modos de transporte. Além disso, a análise de bem estar da política mostra que os mais favorecidos são os indivíduos de baixa renda. A estimação é feita com base em dois modelos de escolha discreta (Multinomial e Mixed Logit), separada por dois motivos de viagem: trabalho e estudo. E, as simulações de deslocamento de demanda utilizam dois valores de tributos, R$ 0,10 e R$ 0,50. In June 2013, the increase of 0.20 BRL in bus fare has emerged a series of popular demonstrations in the country that ended up making some governments, such as the city of São Paulo, backtrack and pay out this difference with the buses company. So, the mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad, proposed a policy of decentralization of a tax imposed on gasoline, CIDE, to finance urban public transport. In this context, a report was commissioned to Fundação Getúlio Vargas to respond the magnitude of the impact of cross-subsidy between users of private and collective transport. This work uses the results found in this report to answer the effect on traffic in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo using data from the Source and Destination Survey of 2007. Results show that the cross-subsidy policy provides a low offset in the flow modes of transport. Moreover, the analysis of welfare policy shows that the most favored are the low-income individuals. The estimation is based on two discrete choice models (Multinomial and Mixed Logit), separate for two reasons of trips: work and study. And the simulations of displacement demand use two values of taxes, 0.10 and 0.50 BRL.

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Schwarz, Matthias. "Verkehrsnachfragemodellierung am Beispiel der Stadt Brandenburg an der Havel." Bachelor's thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2018. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-233233.

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Das Thema der vorliegenden Bachelorarbeit ist, das Vier-Stufen-Modell der Verkehrsnachfrage nach Lohse, auch als Kennwertmodell bekannt, auf die Stadt Brandenburg an der Havel anzuwenden, um die Verkehrserzeugung, die Verkehrsverteilung und die Verkehrsmittelwahl zu berechnen. Dies ist für alle Leser interessant, die damit beginnen, sich mit der integrierten Verkehrsplanung zu beschäftigen, denn diese Arbeit stellt das theoretische, rechnerische und praktische Vorgehen formal vor. Die Berechnungen wurden mit dem Programm „Excel 2013“ realisiert. Zudem ist der Arbeit ein USB-Stick beigelegt, aus dem Sie die formalen Rechnungen aus der Bachelorarbeit besser nachvollziehen können, da auf dem USB-Stick alle Rechnungen hinterlegt sind, die dem Verfahren zugrunde liegen. Zusätzlich enthält der USB-Stick einige Grafiken, welche die Verteilung der Verkehrsmittel in der Stadt Brandenburg an der Havel darstellen.

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Deus, Leonardo Rodrigues de. "A influência da forma urbana no comportamento de viagem das pessoas: estudo de caso em Uberlândia, MG." Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2008. https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/4264.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2125.pdf: 7879891 bytes, checksum: e80ceb14a2ac63501f1ee48b24e98926 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-08-26 Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos The city s transportation system has been a big problem in urban planning, due to constant increasing of vehicles fleet, absence of road network monitoring, air pollution, and conflicts between pedestrian and car. Therefore the development of alternatives that encourage the sustainable travel modes realization, as non-motorized modes and public transportation becomes necessary, reducing, consequently, the number of trips by car. In order to assist urban planning process on the sustainable transportation modes preference and to contribute to better urban spaces for citizens, the objective of this study is to analyze the existent relations between urban form of six traffic zones in Uberlândia city, Minas Gerais State and its urban transportation system, defining how physical features of a certain region influences people traveling behavior. Urban form variables defined as important to this study and analyzed on traffic zones level were: urban density; diversity of land use; quality of favorable places to nonmotorized transportation; availability of public transportation; routes design and connectivity; city topography. To determine the urban form influence on travel behavior different discreet choice models, multinomial logit type, were calibrated. First of all, the models were calibrated using only travelers socio-economic variables and then variables that characterize urban form were included. Results indicated that urban form variables don't have significant influence on the modal choice process in trips in the city, not being, therefore, determinant to define that transport mode must be used. Socio-economic variables, in special, the income and the trip distance were the most determinative factors for the transport mode choice. O sistema de transporte das cidades tem se apresentado como uma grande fonte de problemas frente ao processo de planejamento urbano, devido ao crescente aumento da frota de veículos, o não acompanhamento da malha viária, a poluição do ar, e os conflitos entre pedestres e automóveis. Diante disso, se faz necessário o desenvolvimento de alternativas que incentivem a realização de viagens por modos sustentáveis, como os modos não motorizados e o transporte coletivo, diminuindo de forma conseqüente o número de viagens realizadas por automóvel. No intuito de auxiliar no processo de planejamento urbano a fim de privilegiar os modos de transporte sustentáveis e contribuir para o provimento de espaços urbanos melhores aos cidadãos, este estudo tem o objetivo de analisar as relações existentes entre a forma urbana de seis zonas de tráfego da cidade de Uberlândia/MG, e o seu sistema de transporte urbano, buscando definir como as características físicas de uma determinada região influenciam no comportamento de viagem das pessoas. As variáveis da forma urbana definidas como importantes para este estudo e analisadas em nível de zonas de tráfego foram: densidade urbana; diversidade de usos do solo; qualidade dos espaços que favoreçam o transporte não motorizado; disponibilidade de transporte coletivo; desenho e conectividade das vias; e topografia da cidade. Para determinar o grau de influência da forma urbana sobre o comportamento de viagem foram calibrados diversos modelos de escolha discreta do tipo logit multinomial. Primeiro foram calibrados modelos utilizando apenas as variáveis sócio-econômicas dos viajantes e depois se passou a incluir as variáveis que caracterizam a forma urbana. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que as variáveis da forma urbana não têm influência significativa no processo de escolha modal nas viagens realizadas dentro na cidade, não sendo determinantes para definição do modo de transporte a ser usado. As variáveis sócio-econômicas, em especial a renda, e o comprimento das viagens se mostraram como os fatores mais determinantes para a escolha do modo de transporte.

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Alves, Bianca Bianchi. "O comportamento de viagens de acesso a aeroportos considerando a confiabilidade do tempo de viagem." Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3138/tde-19032015-153303/.

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A confiabilidade do tempo de viagem é atualmente considerada como um fator de elevada importância nos estudos de demanda por transportes, com base no reconhecimento que sistemas congestionados são uma realidade inevitável nos grandes centros urbanos, gerando incertezas nas estimativas do tempo de viagem e tornando sua representação através de uma variável de tempo médio excessivamente simplista. O acesso terrestre aos aeroportos em São Paulo constitui um contexto interessante para o estudo da confiabilidade, considerando os altos custos atribuídos à eventual perda do voo e o ambiente de alta variabilidade de tempos de viagem na região. O estudo da confiabilidade do tempo de viagem tem sido em geral desenvolvido com um enfoque exclusivamente quantitativo, usando modelos matemáticos que se baseiam em teorias de maximização da utilidade estimados a partir de dados de preferência declarada. Em geral, são ignorados: (i) os efeitos de fatores latentes no comportamento, (ii) o fato de que o comportamento nem sempre reflete as intenções, (iii) a complexidade dos fatores envolvidos nas escolhas e (iv) os fatores que descrevem o contexto em que ocorre a decisão. O trabalho utiliza métodos mistos para a coleta e análise dos dados, procurando obter um conjunto abrangente de informações sobre o comportamento. Tanto a coleta de dados como os modelos estimados baseiam-se nos fundamentos da Teoria do Comportamento Planejado, que afirma que o comportamento revelado pode ser estimado a partir de uma intenção que, por sua vez, pode ser estimada a partir de atitudes, normas subjetivas e controle percebido. O controle percebido representa a percepção individual quanto à facilidade em desempenhar um comportamento. Neste estudo, a confiabilidade do tempo de viagem é incluída como um fator de controle percebido, assim como outros indicadores de controle não comumente considerados. A análise é conduzida usando-se uma técnica de Modelos de Equações Estruturais denominada Mínimos Quadrados Parciais. O uso desta técnica permitiu uma descrição abrangente dos mecanismos envolvidos no processo de escolha de acesso terrestre ao aeroporto e confirmou a importância dos fatores latentes na escolha, particularmente os relacionados ao controle percebido e real. Foi possível também verificar que conjuntos distintos de fatores influenciam a formação da intenção (e portanto a preferência declarada) e o comportamento propriamente dito (e portanto o comportamento revelado). Travel time reliability is now considered a major factor in explaining travel demand since its underlying cause congestion seems to be an unavoidable reality in large urban centers. This brings uncertainty to travel time estimates, rendering its representation through travel time averages excessively simplistic. Ground access to airports serving the city of São Paulo makes an interesting context to study reliability, given the considerable annoyance and cost associated with the possibility of missing a flight and the high variability of travel times prevailing in the area. Studies of the reliability of travel time have generally been based on a purely quantitative approach, using utility-based mathematical models, mostly estimated with stated preference data. They usually ignore: (i) the effects of latent factors on behavior, (ii) the fact that behavior does not always reflect intentions, (iii) the complexity of factors involved in choice processes and (iv) the factors describing the choice context. This study uses mixed methods for data collection and analysis, aiming to gather a comprehensive set of information about behavior. Both data collection and modeling are based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, which states that behavior can be predicted from intention; intention, by its turn, can be predicted from attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control. The latter refers to peoples perception of the ease or difficulty of performing the behavior of interest. In this study, we include travel time reliability as a perceived behavioral control factor, in addition to other indicators of control that are not commonly considered. Analysis is conducted using Partial Least Squares, a technique from the family of Structural Equations Models. The use of this technique allowed for a more complete description of the mechanisms involved in the choice process of ground access to airports and confirmed the importance of latent factors on choice, particularly those related to perceived and actual control. The results also indicate that different sets of factors affect the formation of intention (and thus the stated choice) and the behavior itself (and thus actual behavior).

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Leplat, Mélody. "La congestion de sites récréatifs : modélisation économique des choix et application au littoral." Brest, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009BRES6002.

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En France, les sites récréatifs sont généralement en accès libre, ce qui explique qu’ils soient souvent encombrés, notamment quand ils sont attractifs et proches des zones peuplées. L’équilibre de fréquentation est alors non optimal en raison d’un effet externe de congestion. Or, la plupart des modèles qui expliquent le comportement récréatif, omettent la congestion ou l’introduisent comme une variable explicative exogène, alors qu’elle est le résultat d’un équilibre de Nash. Notre modèle théorique formalise la fréquentation optimale et la fréquentation d’équilibre, dans un modèle de choix discrets répétés à deux sites. Il permet de décomposer l'effet externe de congestion en deux sous-effets, respectivement liés à la participation et à ta répartition des visites entre les sites. A l’équilibre, les individus participent trop et visitent trop le site de meilleure qualité. Afin d’appliquer ce cadre théorique, une enquête sur la fréquentation de 43 sites récréatifs littoraux du sud de la Bretagne a été réalisée auprès de 1079 résidents et touristes. Des modèles de choix discret répétés ont été estimés pour expliquer la participation et le choix de sites récréatifs. Lorsque ces estimations sont conduites à l’équilibre de Nash, la congestion diminue l’utilité de la visite à un site. On a enfin simulé l’impact de différentes modalités de tarification des sites sur l’équilibre de participation et de répartition des visites entre les sites, ainsi que sur le bien-être collectif. Seule la tarification simultanée d’un nombre suffisant de sites permet d’augmenter le bien-être collectif en diminuant la participation Open-access is probably the main cause of crowding on recreational sites. Then visitation equilibrium is not optimal because of an externality of congestion. Although, most or recreation demand models omit this explanatory variable or introduce it as exogenous whereas it is me result or a Nash equilibrium. We develop a theoretical framework to derive visitation equilibrium and visitation optimum in a two sites random utility model with participation. We find that congestion leads to two external effects: a first effect due to the repartition of visits and a second linked to participation. At equilibrium, we show that participation is too high and that the high quality site is too much visited. To apply this framework, a survey on visitation of 43 recreational sites has been conducted. 1079 tourists and. Residents have been interviewed. Random utility models have been estimated to explain participation and site choice. When models are estimated at the Nash equilibrium, congestion has a negative impact on utility. Finally, we simulate the impact of different kinds of taxes, on participation, on the repartition of visits and welfare. Only the simultaneous taxation of a sufficient number of sites increases the welfare by dropping participation

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Cyganski, Rita. "Was zieht uns an? Empirische Grundlagen für eine verbesserte Abbildung der Einkaufszielwahl in Verkehrsnachfragemodellen." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/22101.

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Eine große Herausforderung für Verkehrsmodelle stellt die korrekte Abbildung der Entscheidungsmuster bei der Zielwahl dar. Diese bestimmt die räumlichen Strukturen der Nachfrage und steht in engem Zusammenhang mit zentralen Ergebnissen der Nachfragemodellierung. Rund ein Drittel der Alltagswege in Deutschland sind Einkaufs- und Erledigungwege. Zahlreiche Arbeiten zeigen die Bedeutung von habitualisierten Verhaltensmustern bei der Wahl eines Einkaufsortes. Die Motive der Geschäftswahl gelten als sehr vielfältig. Besondere Bedeutung wird zudem den Primäraktivitätenorten zugeschrieben. Gleichwohl erfolgt die Abbildung der Zielwahl in der Nachfragemodellierung zumeist sehr vereinfachend. Gewöhnlich wird von einem Versorgungseinkauf mit der Geschäftsgröße und der Anreisezeit ausgegangen. Diese Arbeit zeigt anhand empirischer Auswertungen Möglichkeiten einer verhaltensorientierten Abbildung der Einkaufszielwahl in mikroskopischen Personenverkehrsmodellen auf. Im Fokus stehen die Variabilität der Geschäftswahl, die ausschlaggebenden Motive sowie die räumlichen Bezugspunkte der Suche. Am Beispiel des Erwerbs von Nahrungs- und Genussmitteln, von Textilien sowie von Unterhaltungselektronik werden Unterschiede zwischen Einkaufswaren verschiedener Fristigkeit, aber auch zwischen verschiedenen Personengruppen herausgearbeitet. Simulationsrechnungen mit dem Nachfragemodell TAPAS zeigen, dass eine Differenzierung der Einkaufsart sowie die Nutzung eines motivgestützen Erreichbarkeitsmaßes die Modellierungsergebnisse stark verbessern. Die Arbeit stellt erweiterte Indikatoren für eine Berücksichtigung der räumlichen Bezugspunkte bei der Beurteilung der Modellierungsergebnisse bereit. Auch stehen mit den Analysen der Aktivitätenräume, der Umwegfaktoren, der Lage der Einkaufsorte sowie der kumulierten Reiseweiten Informationen zur Verfügung, die generell für die Definition adäquater Suchräume und Bezugspunkte für die Modellierung städtischer Untersuchungsgebiete genutzt werden können. A major challenge in travel demand modelling is the correct representation of decision patterns underlying the choice of destinations. This choice determines the spatial structures of demand and is closely related to central modelling results. Around one third of everyday trips in Germany are for shopping and errands. Numerous studies show the importance of habitualised behavioral patterns when choosing a shopping location. The motives for choosing a shop are considered to be very diverse. Particular importance is attributed to primary activity locations. Nevertheless, the representation of the target choice in demand modelling is usually very simplified. Usually, a supply purchase is implicitly assumed, with the size of the shop and travel time from the previous location being the most important choice criteria. Using empirical analyses, this dissertation shows possibilities for a behavior-oriented depiction of shopping location choice in microscopic passenger transport models. These are discussed in terms of their usability for modeling. The analyses focus on the variability of destinations, the decisive motives and the spatial reference points of the location search. Using the example of the purchase of food and beverages, textiles and consumer electronics, differences between shopping goods of different periodicity and also different groups of people are presented. Simulation calculations with the demand model TAPAS show that a differentiation of the type of purchase and the use of a motive-based accessibility measure greatly improves the modelling results. The dissertation provides extended indicators for a consideration of spatial reference points in the evaluation of the modelling results. Furthermore, the analyses of activity areas, diversion factors, the location of shopping locations and cumulative travel distances provide information that can be generally used to define adequate search areas and reference points for the modelling of urban study areas.Einkaufsverhalten

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Yang, Shih-Hsien, and 楊士賢. "The Establishment of Household Activity Participation and Membership Assignment Models – A Case Study of Taipei Metropolitan Activity-Based Travel Demand Model." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/77119795114095930822.

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博士 中原大學 土木工程研究所 99 Taipei Rapid Transit Systems Demand Model (TRTS model) has been established for about 30 years and developed for the 4th generation. However, TRTS model is still based on the conventional method - trip-based model. Trip is derived demand from activity participation; therefore, trip-based model is theoretically incomplete. On the contrary, the activity-based travel demand model has been developed and applied in some U.S. metropolitan areas in planning practice with great and reasonable modeling effect. The Department of Rapid Transit Systems (DORTS) of Taipei City Government upgraded the latest TRTS-IV in 2009, which collected 9,000 household travel surveys in Taipei Metropolitan area. The characteristics of local travel behavior could be characterized from the large and stable survey data, which is helpful to establish related models as well. We conceptualized the probable framework of activity-based travel demand model with firstly focusing on the household activity participation and membership assignment models. By applying hierarchical linear model for the former and logit model for the latter, the hierarchical framework of exogenous variables was specified; therefore, variables needed to be separated with different levels to reflect context effect. Furthermore, the sequence of membership assignment was identified based on local travel behavior following hierarchical model. By the context effect and the local travel behavior, the parameters of models were verified and the estimation effect was shown better than conventional models.

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"Integrated Model of the Urban Continuum with Dynamic Time-dependent Activity-Travel Microsimulation: Framework, Prototype, and Implementation." Doctoral diss., 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.14529.

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abstract: The development of microsimulation approaches to urban systems modeling has occurred largely in three parallel streams of research, namely, land use, travel demand and traffic assignment. However, there are important dependencies and inter-relationships between the model systems which need to be accounted to accurately and comprehensively model the urban system. Location choices affect household activity-travel behavior, household activity-travel behavior affects network level of service (performance), and network level of service, in turn, affects land use and activity-travel behavior. The development of conceptual designs and operational frameworks that represent such complex inter-relationships in a consistent fashion across behavioral units, geographical entities, and temporal scales has proven to be a formidable challenge. In this research, an integrated microsimulation modeling framework called SimTRAVEL (Simulator of Transport, Routes, Activities, Vehicles, Emissions, and Land) that integrates the component model systems in a behaviorally consistent fashion, is presented. The model system is designed such that the activity-travel behavior model and the dynamic traffic assignment model are able to communicate with one another along continuous time with a view to simulate emergent activity-travel patterns in response to dynamically changing network conditions. The dissertation describes the operational framework, presents the modeling methodologies, and offers an extensive discussion on the advantages that such a framework may provide for analyzing the impacts of severe network disruptions on activity-travel choices. A prototype of the model system is developed and implemented for a portion of the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area in Arizona to demonstrate the capabilities of the model system. Dissertation/Thesis Ph.D. Civil and Environmental Engineering 2012

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Chang, Yun-Pin, and 張雲萍. "Demand Forecasting Models for International Air Travel." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16836432519214803246.

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碩士 國立交通大學 交通運輸研究所 92 In the airline industry, knowing passenger demand is an important task for all kinds of planning and operation. For examples, the arrangement of an air route, the purchasing of planes, the assignment of flight crew, the dispatch of flights, and the operation of revenue management, all need demand information to support right decisions. Accurate demand prediction could be derived from fully analyzing market environment where air travel demand happens, analyzing factors which cause the demand to change, and choosing right forecasting models. On these points of view, this paper focused on the following three dimensions to illustrate international air travel demand: overview of demand modeling, market analysis, and Taipei-Hong Kong passenger demand forecasting. In this paper Neural Network is applied to model Taipei-Hong Kong passenger demand and a progressive way to improve the forecasting accuracy is added. Firstly, the models were developed to probe the feasibility of data multiplication. Secondly, proper socioeconomic variables were examined. Thirdly, the seasonal factor which shows the unique demand pattern of the air route was embedded into models. Finally, the lagging effect of socioeconomic variables was discussed, so that demand forecasting models may ward off the dependency of other variables’ predictions. The results demonstrate that Neural Network model with the progressive way for Taipei-Hong Kong passenger demand was remarkable.

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Talbot, Eric. "Logit Models for Estimating Urban Area Through Travel." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2010-08-8410.

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Since through trips can be a significant portion of travel in a study area, estimating them is an important part of travel demand modeling. In the past, through trips have been estimated using external surveys. Recently, external surveys were suspended in Texas, so Texas transportation planners need a way to estimate through trips without using external surveys. Other research in the area has focused on study areas with a population of less than 200,000, but many Texas study areas have a population of more than 200,000. This research developed a set of two logit models to estimate through trips for a wide range of study area sizes, including larger study areas. The first model estimates the portion of all trips at an external station that are through trips. The second model distributes those through trips at one external station to the other external stations. The models produce separate results for commercial and noncommercial vehicles, and these results can be used to develop through trip tables. For predictor variables, the models use results from a very simple gravity model; the average daily traffic (ADT) at each external station as a proportion of the total ADT at all available external stations; the number of turns on the routes between external station pairs; and whether the route is valid, where a valid route is one that passes through the study area and does not pass through any other external stations. Evaluations of the performance of the models showed that the predictions fit the observations reasonably well; at least 68 percent of the absolute prediction errors for each model and for the models combined were less than 10 percent. These results indicate that the models can be useful for practical applications.

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Huang, Wen-Jing. "Development of statewide truck travel demand models using multiple data sources." 1998. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/40452138.html.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1998. Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 234-239).

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Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof. "Modeling residential self-selection in activity-travel behavior models : integrated models of multidimensional choice processes." 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/17899.

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The focus of transportation planning, until the past three decades or so, was to provide adequate transportation infrastructure supply to meet the mobility needs of the population. Over the past three decades, however, in view of increasing suburban sprawl and auto dependence, the focus of transportation planning has expanded to include the objective of sustainable development. Contemporary efforts toward sustainability include, for example, integrated land-use and transportation planning, travel demand management, congestion pricing, and transit and non-motorized travel oriented development. Consequently, in an effort to understand individuals’ behavioral responses to (and to assess the effectiveness of) these policies, the travel demand modeling field evolved along three distinct directions: (a) Activity-based travel demand modeling, (b) Built environment and travel behavior modeling, and (c) Integrated land-use -- transportation modeling. The three fields of research, however, have progressed in a rather disjoint fashion. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to contribute toward the research needs that are at the intersection of the three fields of research identified above, and to bring the three research areas together into a unified research stream. This is achieved by the simultaneous consideration of the following three aspects, each of which is of high importance in each direction of research identified above: (1) The activity-based and tour-based approaches to travel behavior analysis, (2) Residential self-selection effects, and (3) Integrated modeling of long-term land-use related choices and medium- and short-term travel-related choices. To this end, a series of integrated models of multidimensional choice processes are formulated to jointly analyze long-term residential location decisions and medium- and short-term activity-travel decisions (such as auto ownership, bicycle ownership, commute mode choice, and daily time-use). The models are estimated and applied using data from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey to understand and disentangle the multitude of relationships between long-, medium-, and short-term choices. This dissertation also formulates a multiple discrete-continuous nested extreme value model that can accommodate inter-alternative correlations and flexible substitution patterns across mutually exclusive subsets (or nests) of alternatives in multiple discrete-continuous choice models. text

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Zimmermann, Maëlle. "Route choice and traffic equilibrium modeling in multi-modal and activity-based networks." Thèse, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/22664.

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Pang, Hao. "Mixed land use and travel behavior : a case study for incorporating land use patterns into travel demand models." Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/26215.

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Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) have become increasingly interested in incorporating land use patterns and design ideas into transportation problems. Many design ideas under the umbrella of the New Urbanism; yet in practice they hardly get fully implemented in the standard transportation planning procedures. This research intends to contribute to the continuing debate on land use pattern-travel connection by adding further empirical evidence from the Austin, TX region. Also, it demonstrates ways to integrate land use patterns in transportation demand analysis. The study identifies 42 mixed use districts (MXD) in the Austin region and analyzes the following aspects of travel behavior in MXDs and non-MXDs: production trip rates, frequency of produced trips, network trip length, internal rate of capture, and person-miles of travel (PMT). The study contributes to transportation planning and policy making in Central Texas by providing local empirical evidence on urban form-travel connection. The study’s method and process can be of interest to a broad audience in academia and practice. text

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Copperman, Rachel Batya Anna 1982. "A comprehensive assessment of children's activity-travel patterns with implications for activity-based travel demand modeling." 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/17843.

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Children are an often overlooked and understudied population group, whose travel needs are responsible for a significant number of trips made by a household. In addition, children’s travel and activity participation have direct implication for adults’ activity-travel patterns. A better understanding of children’s activity-travel patterns and the linkages between parents and children’s activity-travel needs is necessary for accurate prediction and forecasting of activity-based travel demand modeling systems. In contrast to the need to examine and model children’s activity-travel patterns, existing activity-based research and modeling systems have almost exclusively focused their attention on the activity-travel patterns of adults. Therefore, the goal of this research effort is to contribute to the area of activity-based travel demand analysis by comprehensively examining children’s activity-travel patterns, and by developing a framework for incorporating children within activity-based travel demand modeling systems. This dissertation provides a comprehensive review of previous research on children’s activity engagement and travel by focusing on the dimensions characterizing children’s activity-travel patterns and the factors affecting these dimensions. Further, an exploratory analysis examines the weekday and weekend activity participation characteristics of school-going children. The study focuses on the overall time-use of children in different types of activities, as well as on several dimensions characterizing the context of participation in activities. In addition, the dissertation discusses the treatment of children within current activity-based travel demand modeling systems and conceptualizes an alternative framework for simulating the daily activity-travel patterns of children. An empirical analysis is undertaken of the post-school out-of-home activity-location engagement patterns of children aged 5 to 17 years. Specifically, this research effort utilizes a multinomial logit model to analyze children’s post-school location patterns, and employs a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to study the propensity of children to participate in, and allocate time to, multiple activity episode purpose-location types during the after-school period. Finally, the paper identifies the need and opportunities for further research in the field of children’s travel behavior analysis. text

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Lowe, Scott Elliot. "Recreational demand for fishing in the Yellowstone National Park Area : a travel cost model." Thesis, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/33967.

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Potential policy decisions regarding fly fishing in the Yellowstone National Park Area could severely impact the enjoyment possibilities of many of its users. In order to determine the magnitude of the impact, this paper applies a form of the basic travel cost model developed by Bell and Leeworthy [JEEM. 18,189-205 (1990)] to fishing sites in the Yellowstone National Park Area. Bell and Leeworthy have argued that consumer demand for the time spent at a recreation site is inversely related to on-site cost per day, and may be positively related to travel cost per trip. The paper discusses relevant literature on the method, presents background information on the site, and generates a demand curve for users of the resource. A consumer surplus measurement is then derived from the resulting demand data, which gives an estimate for the value of the resource; the consumer surplus is determined to be roughly $751.88 per day spent at the site. The assumptions of the model are then discussed, and an assessment is made of the potential policy implications. Graduation date: 1998

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Donnelly, R. (Rick). "A model for predicting air travel demand in small communities." 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/27428.

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Abdelghany, Khaled Faissal Said 1970. "Stochastic dynamic traffic assignment for intermodal transportation networks with consistent information supply strategies." 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/10461.

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Sener, Ipek N. "Accommodating flexible spatial and social dependency structures in discrete choice models of activity-based travel demand modeling." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2010-08-1609.

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Spatial and social dependence shape human activity-travel pattern decisions and their antecedent choices. Although the transportation literature has long recognized the importance of considering spatial and social dependencies in modeling individuals’ choice behavior, there has been less research on techniques to accommodate these dependencies in discrete choice models, mainly because of the modeling complexities introduced by such interdependencies. The main goal of this dissertation, therefore, is to propose new modeling approaches for accommodating flexible spatial and social dependency structures in discrete choice models within the broader context of activity-based travel demand modeling. The primary objectives of this dissertation research are three-fold. The first objective is to develop a discrete choice modeling methodology that explicitly incorporates spatial dependency (or correlation) across location choice alternatives (whether the choice alternatives are contiguous or non-contiguous). This is achieved by incorporating flexible spatial correlations and patterns using a closed-form Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) structure. The second objective is to propose new approaches to accommodate spatial dependency (or correlation) across observational units for different aspatial discrete choice models, including binary choice and ordered-response choice models. This is achieved by adopting different copula-based methodologies, which offer flexible dependency structures to test for different forms of dependencies. Further, simple and practical approaches are proposed, obviating the need for any kind of simulation machinery and methods for estimation. Finally, the third objective is to formulate an enhanced methodology to capture the social dependency (or correlation) across observational units. In particular, a clustered copula-based approach is formulated to recognize the potential dependence due to cluster effects (such as family-related effects) in an ordered-response context. The proposed approaches are empirically applied in the context of both spatial and aspatial choice situations, including residential location and activity participation choices. In particular, the results show that ignoring spatial and social dependencies, when present, can lead to inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates that, in turn, can result in misinformed policy actions and recommendations. The approaches proposed in this research are simple, flexible and easy-to-implement, applicable to data sets of any size, do not require any simulation machinery, and do not impose any restrictive assumptions on the dependency structure. text

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Zhu, Jianping. "Estimating the demand for and value of recreation access to national forest wilderness a comparison of travel cost and onsite cost day models /." 2007. http://purl.galileo.usg.edu/uga%5Fetd/zhu%5Fjianping%5F200705%5Fms.

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Fourie, P. J. (Pieter Jacobus). "An initial implementation of a multi-agent transport simulator for South Africa." Diss., 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/25793.

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Transport demand planning in South Africa is a neglected field of study, using obsolete methods to model an extremely complex, dynamic system composed of an eclectic mix of First and Third World transport technologies, infrastructure and economic participants. We identify agent-based simulation as a viable modelling paradigm capable of capturing the effects emerging from the complex interactions within the South African transport system, and proceed to implement the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit (MATSim) for South Africa's economically important Gauteng province. This report describes the procedure followed to transform household travel survey, census and Geographic Information System (GIS) data into an activity-based transport demand description, executed on network graphs derived from GIS shape files. We investigate the influence of network resolution on solution quality and simulation time, by preparing a full network representation and a small version, containing no street-level links. Then we compare the accuracy of our data-derived transport demand with a lower bound solution. Finally the simulation is tested for repeatability and convergence. Comparisons of simulated versus actual traffic counts on important road network links during the morning and afternoon rush hour peaks show a minimum mean relative error of less than 40%. Using the same metric, the small network differs from the full representation by a maximum of 2% during the morning peak hour, but the full network requires three times as much memory to execute, and takes 5.2 times longer to perform a single iteration. Our census- and travel survey-derived demand performs significantly better than uniformly distributed random pairings of home- and work locations, which we took to be analogous to a lower bound solution. The smallest difference in corresponding mean relative error between the two cases comes to more than 50%. We introduce a new counts ratio error metric that removes the bias present in traditional counts comparison error metrics. The new metric shows that the spread (standard deviation) of counts comparison values for the random demand is twice to three times as large as that of our reference case. The simulation proves highly repeatable for different seed values of the pseudo-random number generator. An extended simulation run reveals that full systematic relaxation requires 400 iterations. Departure time histograms show how agents 'learn' to gradually load the network while still complying with activity constraints. The initial implementation has already sparked further research. Current priorities are improving activity assignment, incorporating commercial traffic and public transport, and the development and implementation of the minibus taxi para-transit mode. Copyright Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2009. Industrial and Systems Engineering unrestricted

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Oherein, Daniel Lee Asikhia. "An analysis of urban transport demand in Windhoek : a case study of the Katatura and Khomsdal residential areas." Diss., 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/15695.

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Existing travel patterns in Windhoek are influenced by the past land use policy of restricted urban development in the former townships ofKatutura and Khomasdal. Thus residents in these townships are faced with longer distances to reach quality urban servtces. This thesis examined the impact on travel demand of changes in land use policies aimed at stimulating growth in the two areas using the HLFM computer model. The results showed that, policy induced land use changes may stimulate population and employment growth in the neglected areas, but with no effects on the present travel patterns. The model needs to be refined to fit the peculiarity of the study area. Nevertheless, information provided in the thesis could be used in assessing areas where development trends will go if any ofthe land use policy tested in the study is adopted. Geography M.A. (Geography)

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Wang, Joshua. "A Prism- and Gap-based Approach to Shopping Destination Choice." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/31625.

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This thesis presents a prism- and gap-based approach for modelling shopping destination choice in the Travel/Activity Scheduler for Household Agents (TASHA). The gap-location choice model improves upon TASHA’s existing destination choice model in 3 key ways: 1) Shifting from a zone-based to a disaggregate location choice model, 2) Categorizing shopping trips into meaningful types, and 3) Accounting for scheduling constraints in choice set generation and location choice. The model replicates gap and location choices reasonably well at an aggregate level and shows that a simple yet robust model can be developed with minimal changes to TASHA’s existing location choice model. The gap-based approach to destination choice is envisioned as a small but significant step towards a more comprehensive location choice model in a dynamic activity scheduling environment.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Travel Demand Assignment Models'

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