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Journal articles on the topic 'Trend turning points'
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1
Khasis, L. "Turning Points in Russian Retail Development." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 6 (June 20, 2006): 136–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2006-6-136-144.
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The article analyses the development of Russian retail networks. Special attention is paid to key issues to win position on the local commercial market, where sales entities set up networks of various complexity. Generalizing the experience of performance of main sales networks on the Russian market, the article points out strengthening of the competitive activity and sets up key trends to improve their functioning. There is It gives trend forecast for expansion of sales networks in Russian regions.
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Yuguo, Ding, Tu Qipu, and Wen Min. "A statistical model for investigating climatic trend turning points." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 12, no. 1 (March 1995): 47–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02661286.
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Wang, Chien-Ho, Ming-Hui Ko, and Wan-Jiun Chen. "Effects of Kyoto Protocol on CO2 Emissions: A Five-Country Rolling Regression Analysis." Sustainability 11, no. 3 (January 31, 2019): 744. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11030744.
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The current study illustrated the time variance of turning points in the relationship between carbon emissions and income to resolve heated debate on the different responsibility to climate change with 1950–2010 data of five development diversity countries—three developed countries (Germany, Italy, and Japan) and one developing country (India) and one newly industrialized economy (Taiwan). The article also examines the impact of the crisis on emission. The time-varying patterns in the turning points on environmental Kuznets curves (EKCs) were observed by a rolling regression technique with 1950–2010 data regarding the per capita CO2 emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion and the incomes of the countries. Several empirical findings were revealed from this analysis. Per capita CO2 emissions commonly decreased with varying magnitudes in the five countries over time. The EKC hypothesis regarding the CO2 emissions is affirmed again in this study. The announcement effects associated with the Kyoto Protocol was evidenced. As indicated by the occurring GDP of the turning point, there is a strong reduction trend in the income level of the turning points right before the years of Kyoto Protocol; and this decreasing trend nearly ended as the Kyoto protocol approached its end, except in Germany, where the occurring income of the turning points continued to have a decreasing trend. Although the global financial crisis had its effects in the world, the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions vary across countries.
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Kirkegaard Thomsen, Dorthe, and Anders Bonde Jensen. "Memories and narratives about breast cancer." Narrative Inquiry 17, no. 2 (December 31, 2007): 349–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/ni.17.2.10kir.
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Turning points are considered to refer to emotional and important events. The present study compared turning point memories to other memories on several ratings and investigated the association between turning points, distress and meaning. Memories may act as organising units in extended narratives, hence the study also tested whether overlap between memories and extended illness narrative was associated with a more coherent narrative. Fifteen patients with breast cancer were asked to tell a 10-minute narrative about their illness course and describe meaning in their illness. Each patient was asked to recall five memories, to state whether or not the memories were turning points, and to rate memories on both event and phenomenological variables. Lastly, the patients were asked to rate distress. The narratives were scored for coherence and the memories were scored for thematic content as well as thematic overlap with the narratives. The results showed that all participants rated the mammography as a turning point and that turning points were rated higher on both event and phenomenological variables. Patients reporting more turning points also reported more distress and not finding meaning in the illness and treatment. High degree of overlap between memories and narratives showed a trend towards an association with a more coherent narrative. The present article discusses processes, which may be involved in the interaction between memories and narratives.
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Li, Fu Yuan, and Jun Wang. "A Kind of Mathematical Solution of Optimization for Turning." Advanced Materials Research 411 (November 2011): 149–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.411.149.
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As a base of optimization of metal cutting, a new method of solution of optimization for single pass turning is proposed in this paper. There are three parts for this new method. Firstly, the optimal point must exist on the boundary of the feasible domain of the cutting conditions. Secondly, it is easy to add the processing of determining the boundary of feasible domain as new constraints. Thirdly, the local optimal point on every piece of line or curve of the boundary can be calculated, and finally the minimum of those local optimal points is the final optimal point. There are no local optimal points on the curves of constraints Tmin and Tmax except the intersection points. In addition, the trend of the objective function is affected by the rate . It is helpful to calculate the optimal point by computer. This approach provides a basic research on the affection of the statistics characteristic of the empirical functions used in this case.
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Hu, Shu-Xian, Mingyang Chen, and Bingyun Ao. "Theoretical studies on the oxidation states and electronic structures of actinide-borides: AnB12 (An = Th–Cm) clusters." Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics 20, no. 37 (2018): 23856–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c8cp02561d.
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The electronic structures of actinide metal doped half sandwich AnB12 (An = Th to Cm) clusters are explored and characterized using relativistic density functional theory. The trend of oxidation state across the actinide series in AnB12 exhibits two turning points, +V in Pa and +II in Am.
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Wang, Yu-Xin, and Yi-Ming Wang. "Configuration Bifurcations Analysis of Six Degree-of-Freedom Symmetrical Stewart Parallel Mechanisms." Journal of Mechanical Design 127, no. 1 (January 1, 2005): 70–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.1814651.
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The configuration bifurcations of Stewart parallel manipulators at singular positions induce the uncertainty of the moving trends of the manipulative platform. The Jacobian matrix method can determine the singular position of Stewart manipulators, but it cannot determine the configuration variation trend in the vicinity of the singular position. In order to investigate the concrete motion behaviors of the Stewart parallel manipulator at singular positions, we construct the algorithm for determining all the configuration branches and bifurcation points. Through detailed investigations of configuration bifurcation characteristics, we have found that with a decrease of the extensible legs’ length, the bifurcation points of configuration branches of the movable platform get together gradually and the bifurcation type changes from turning to dual-point bifurcation, and then, finally, it becomes multiple-point bifurcation.
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Ryaboshlyk, Volodymyr. "TURNING POINT VS TREND." JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 4, no. 1 (May 20, 2011): 56–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2011/4-1/6.
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Lepellere, Maria Antonietta, Ting Fa Margherita Chang, Maurizio Droli, and Luca Iseppi. "THE HIDDEN TURNING POINTS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN DIET: A TOOL FOR HEALTH AND AGRO-FOOD POLICIES. RATING OUT OF FIFTY YEARS, AND 22 COUNTRIES." New Medit 18, no. 2 (June 15, 2019): 71–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.30682/nm1902e.
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The purpose of this study is to develop a method to identify the radical changes in the Mediterranean adequacy index (MAI) trend for monitoring and modifying food and prevention policies. The development of a statistical solver demonstrates that the evolution of the MAI over time (1961-2013) in the EU countries, the USA and Japan is at least bi-parted. In most countries, often two successive conflicting tendencies emerge, whose intersection is signaled by a turning point. The framework of the “knowledge-based view” can help determine whether or not the slopes of the new trend are idiosyncratic with WHO objectives to prevent chronic diseases. Sustainably fighting against the rise in coronary heart disease (CHD) requires to incentive both demand and supply of food products Mediterranean-intensive, revealing by solver use the MAI hidden turning-points . This study allows policymakers to improve their planning, prevention and monitoring capabilities through more exact projections concerning both Mediterranean food markets and emerging CHD risks.
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Lin, Wei Shin. "The Study of Precision Hard Turning of the Hardened Mold Steel." Key Engineering Materials 364-366 (December 2007): 640–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.364-366.640.
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Hard turning has the advantage of rapidly, elasticity and low energy consuming. It has been a trend to replace the complex grinding processes, especially for small batch machining.The surface roughness value of steel after being grinded will ranged in 0.1 to 1.6 μm Ra. This paper points to the precision hard turning of the hardened mold steel, seeking the cutting conditions that can be received in the surface roughness value below 0.1μm Ra, in order to replace the grinding processes. The precision dry turning test were conducted with ceramic cutting tools. The nose radius of the cutting tool was 1.2 mm and the depth of cut was fixed at 0.05 mm. Through a series of turning test, it can be found that, when cutting speed was at 80 to 200 m / min, and feed rate at 0.005 to 0.009 mm / rev, the surface roughness value would be all below 0.1μm Ra. It was superior to grinding process. So we can say that, it is possible to replace the grinding process by hard turning when machining the hardened mold steel.
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Dagum, Estela Bee, and Alessandra Luati. "A Cascade Linear Filter to Reduce Revisions and False Turning Points for Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation." Econometric Reviews 28, no. 1-3 (November 18, 2008): 40–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474930802387837.
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Zeng, Yixue, Zhixiang Zhou, Zhaogui Yan, Mingjun Teng, and Chunbo Huang. "Climate Change and Its Attribution in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China." Sustainability 11, no. 24 (December 16, 2019): 7206. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11247206.
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Climate change in dam areas is one of the environmental problems associated with dams. However, the main factors and mechanisms that impact climate change in dam areas remain unclear. In this study, linear regression, the observed minus reanalyzed (OMR) method, and multi-source data are used to assess climate change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China and investigate the main impact factors among the controversial factors (land cover change, environmental climate, and reservoir impoundment). Our results indicate that turning points of trend changes for annual fog days (FD), annual average temperature (T), and annual average relative humidity (RH) occurred at around 1996 during the period 1973–2013, and annual precipitation (PRE) suggested no obvious turning point. The change trends after 1996 were steeper than before 1996. These changes are mainly closely correlated with environmental climate. In particular, temperature was significantly correlated with environmental temperature (1979–2013: r = 0.799, p < 0.01), and their relationship was stronger after 1990 (r = 0.842, p < 0.01). Moreover, the turning point for FD, T, and RH also correlated with land use/cover change. In addition, reservoir impoundment showed an obvious humidification effect (OMR RH correlated with water area: r = 0.566, p < 0.01). Our findings support the view that climate change in dam areas is mainly affected by environmental climate changes.
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Zamaraev, B., and A. Nazarova. "Inventory Management in Russian Economy: Crisis and Post-crisis Adjustment." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 3 (March 20, 2013): 50–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-3-50-69.
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The article considers the stock changes and their relationship to changes in economic activity. Comprehensive statistical analysis covers accounting data, which are compiled on a quarterly basis, in relation with annual data of the system of national accounts. Methodological approaches to using composite leading indexes of economic activity to forecast future changes in inventories and explain turning points in their trend are examined. The article analyzes changes in inventory for 2005—2011 (in general and for different types of inventory) in the context of such approaches. It also presents international comparisons of inventory levels.
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Ou, Ren Xia, Hong Bin Chen, Jie Bao, and Jie Wu. "The Damage Analysis of Composite Laminate under the Action of Low Speed Impact and Static Pressure Mark." Advanced Materials Research 941-944 (June 2014): 1437–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.941-944.1437.
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Based on energy balance equation, the relationship between the biggest impact contact force with the pit depth in the process of impact was derived by the relationship between impact energy and indentation depth, T700S/5228 and T300/5222, two different toughness of carbon/epoxy resin composite material, are chose. The corresponding relationship between impact energy (static pressure mark force) and indentation depth was got by the contrast analysis on the low speed impact test and the static pressure mark test, and showed the similar trend with static pressure mark test of static force and indentation depth relationship. This similar trend that obvious turning points were appeared in some indentation depth showed the effectiveness that using the quasi static method to simulate the low-velocity impact of composite laminate to a certain extent.
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Su, Xiaoyun, Xiaopeng Yang, Ting Song, Wencai Wang, and Lijun Chen. "Radon concentration anomaly characteristics in the North–South seismic belt before strong earthquake." E3S Web of Conferences 261 (2021): 04029. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202126104029.
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Seismic underground fluids play an important role in earthquake prediction studies and tracking. Nearly 30 years of radon concentration monitoring data at 42 observation sites in the North–South seismic belt (22°-35° N, 100°-110° E) were collected from the National Earthquake Data Center of China Earthquake Networks Center. The possible precursor anomalies of observed radon concentration in the belt before several strong earthquakes were investigated and their spatial distribution, evolution, and variation characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that radon concentration precursor anomalies before several strong earthquakes were high, and the morphological characteristics are relatively complex. The anomaly mainly shows the turning point or accelerating change of trend background change; longer anomaly durations tend to be concentrated around epicenters. The number of observation points with anomalies was positively correlated with the proximity to the epicenter; the measurement points closest to the epicenter exhibited earlier trend anomalies. The research has important practical significance and scientific value for understanding the relationship between radon concentration anomaly and strong earthquake.
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Zhang, Jian, Yi Lin Lu, and Shao Chun Wu. "Earthquake Prediction Research Based on the Mining in Time Series of Groundwater Temperature." Advanced Materials Research 532-533 (June 2012): 1016–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.532-533.1016.
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Earthquake prediction has always been an extremely important and difficult research topic. A road map was proposed in this paper to capture useful information for earthquake prediction by exploring the time sequence data of groundwater temperature. Firstly, the triangle extreme points and the trend turning points are employed for the piecewise linear representation of the time series data. Then the segmentation is classified and symbolized by slope, and symbol sequence is simplified further according to the simplification rules. Finally, the earthquake catalogue data and the symbol sequence are jointly preprocessed with a new method to form transaction-like data, which then be treated by association analysis to extract earthquake prediction knowledge. The results of experiment show that this processing flow is an effective way to provide valuable information about earthquake prediction.
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Zhou, Tianbao, Xinghao Li, and Peng Wang. "Statistics and Practice on the Trend’s Reversal and Turning Points of Chinese Stock Indices Based on Gann’s Time Theory and Solar Terms Effect." Mathematics 9, no. 15 (July 21, 2021): 1713. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9151713.
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Despite the future price of individual stocks has long been proved to be unpredictable and irregular according to the EMH, the turning points (or the reversal) of the stock indices trend still remain the rules to follow. Therefore, this study mainly aimed to provide investors with new strategies in buying ETFs of the indices, which not only avoided the instability of individual stocks, but were also able to get a high profit within weeks. Famous theories like Gann theory and the Elliott wave theory suggest that as part of the nature, market regulations and economic activities of human beings shall conform to the laws of nature and the operation of the universe. They further refined only the rules related to specific timepoints and the time cycle rather than the traditional analysis of the complex economic and social factors, which is, to some extent, similar to what the Chinese traditional culture proposes: that every impact on and change in the human society is always attributable to changes in the nature. The study found that the turns of the stock indices trend were inevitable at specific timepoints while the strength and intensity of the turns were uncertain, affected by various factors by then, which meant the market was intertwined with both certainty and uncertainty at the same time. The analysis was based on the data of the Shanghai Index, the Second Board Index and the Shenzhen Index, the three major indices that represent almost all aspects of the Chinese stock market, for the past decades. It could effectively reduce the heteroscedasticity, instability and irregularity of time series models by replacing 250 daily high-frequency data with the extreme points near every twenty-four solar terms per year. The forecasts focusing on the future stock trend of the all-solar-terms group and the eight-solar-terms group were proved accurate. What is more, the indices trend was at a high probability to turn in a range of four days at each solar term. The alert period also provided the readers with a practical example of how it works in the real investment environment.
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Alajmi, Mahdi S., and Abdullah M. Almeshal. "Estimation and Optimization of Tool Wear in Conventional Turning of 709M40 Alloy Steel Using Support Vector Machine (SVM) with Bayesian Optimization." Materials 14, no. 14 (July 6, 2021): 3773. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ma14143773.
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Cutting tool wear reduces the quality of the product in production processes. The optimization of both the machining parameters and tool life reliability is an increasing research trend to save manufacturing resources. In the present work,, we introduced a computational approach in estimating the tool wear in the turning process using artificial intelligence. Support vector machines (SVM) for regression with Bayesian optimization is used to determine the tool wear based on various machining parameters. A coated insert carbide tool 2025 was utilized in turning tests of 709M40 alloy steel. Experimental data were collected for three machining parameters like feed rate, depth of cut, and cutting speed, while the parameter of tool wear was calculated with a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The SVM model was trained on 162 experimental data points and the trained model was then used to estimate the experimental testing data points to determine the model performance. The proposed SVM model with Bayesian optimization achieved a superior accuracy in estimation of the tool wear with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.13% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.29%. The results suggest the feasibility of adopting artificial intelligence methods in estimating the machining parameters to reduce the time and costs of manufacturing processes and contribute toward greater sustainability.
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Loua, René Tato, Hassan Bencherif, Nelson Bègue, Nkanyiso Mbatha, Thierry Portafaix, Alain Hauchecorne, Venkataraman Sivakumar, and Zoumana Bamba. "Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data." Climate 8, no. 6 (May 31, 2020): 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli8060068.
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Trend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R2) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1 and 0.21 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1). In addition, forcings’ contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Niño3.4 and Atlantic Niño (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors.
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Marthinsen, K., R. Holmestad, and R. Høier. "Structure factor refinement by least-squares inversion of 2D convergent-beam patterns." Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America 51 (August 1, 1993): 682–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0424820100149246.
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While electron microscopy and diffraction for decades mainly have been a qualitative tool, there has been an increasing trend over the last years for more quantitative work. This trend applies in particular to convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) where different methods for the retrieval of quantitative structure information from CBED intensities have been proposed. In our group we have aimed at developing a general and automatic method based on the strong parameter dependencies that govern the complicated two-dimensional (2-D) intensity variations in the CBED-disks particularly in the nonsystematic many-beam case. The method is based on least squares fitting between digitized experimental and computed patterns. The advantage of this method as compared with alternative methods is many turning points in the intensity variations, which should give a high parameter sensitivity, and the fact that non-systematic many-beam effects are particularly sensitive to structure factor phases, which should make the method especially suitable to non-centric crystals.
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Chatterjee, Soumendu, Dipak Bisai, and Ansar Khan. "Detection of Approximate Potential Trend Turning Points in Temperature Time Series (1941-2010) for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India." Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 04, no. 01 (2014): 64–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.41009.
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Banaś, Jan, and Anna Kożuch. "The Application of Time Series Decomposition for the Identification and Analysis of Fluctuations in Timber Supply and Price: A Case Study from Poland." Forests 10, no. 11 (November 6, 2019): 990. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10110990.
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The objective of the study was to verify the applicability and usefulness of time series decomposition in analyzing the variability of timber prices and supply in Poland. The employed multiplicative model was the product of four components: cyclical, seasonal, and irregular fluctuations and the long-term trend. The elements of the time series were determined by means of the Census X11 method, while cyclicality was separated from the trend employing the Hodrick–Prescott filter. Data included quarterly information about the supply (volume) and prices (value) of the timber sold by the State Forests in the years 2005–2018. Analyses were performed for tree species with the greatest economic significance, that is, pine, oak, spruce, beech, birch, and alder, and for their most popular assortments: general purpose large-diameter timber (W0) and medium-diameter timber (S2A). Time series decomposition of quarterly timber production volume and prices revealed irregular, seasonal, and cyclic fluctuations. Within an annual time horizon, irregular fluctuations accounted on average for 6.7% and 28% of overall variability in timber prices and supply, respectively; they exhibited low amplitudes (+5%, −25%, respectively). Cyclical fluctuations were primarily found for prices and were characterized by substantial variations in cycle length (2–4 years) and change amplitude (3–27 Euros). Cyclical fluctuations in timber prices and supply were usually negatively correlated with each other: the upper turning points of price cycles fell near the lower turning points of supply cycles (with a shift of 1 to 3 quarters). The seasonality of prices was also inversely correlated with supply: quarters with low supply exhibited higher prices and vice versa. Seasonal fluctuations were more pronounced for timber supply (36%) as compared to timber prices (20.3%). Different seasonality patterns were found for hardwood and softwood. The lowest supply of softwood was found in the first quarter and the highest in the third quarter (spruce) or fourth quarter (pine). The supply of hardwood was the highest in the first quarter and the lowest in the third quarter.
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Reisen, Olga K. "Contemporary Russian cinema and its world contexts." Journal of Flm Arts and Film Studies 11, no. 1 (March 15, 2019): 38–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/vgik11138-47.
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The author of the essay examines the main trends in contemporary Russian cinema, correlating them with similar manifestations in world cinema and, simultaneously, tracing the origins of these phenomena to the Soviet cinematic past. Thus, the essays section devoted to the analysis of manifestations of the Aesopian language in cinema, reveals models of the use of metaphors, symbolic allusions, etc., observed in the cinema of the socialist countries or in Spanish cinema under the Franco regime - as ways of countering censorship bans. In this context, it should be noted that these trends became firmly established in the cultures of the mentioned countries and have been preserved in them after the acquisition of political freedoms.
The section entitled Utopian Realism vs New Sociality analyses the technique of combining slice-of-life approach with the magic tale canon, opened by American director Frank Capra and screenwriter Robert Riskin in the 1930s, known as utopian realism and widely employed in the Russian cinema of the past quarter century, in particular in the stage-to-screen trend of the New Drama.
The essay also looks at forms and methods of the trend of magical realism typical of the turning points in the historical development of different countries and here exemplified by the cultures of Latin America and the Russian cinema of the 1990s.
Further, the author analyses the adaptation of Hollywood genre clichs for Russian blockbusters, as well as a more frank representation of social realities in the context of new developments in the sphere of economy.
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Mikhailov, A. V., and D. Marin. "An interpretation of the <i>ƒo</i>F2 and <i>hm</i>F2 long-term trends in the framework of the geomagnetic control concept." Annales Geophysicae 19, no. 7 (July 31, 2001): 733–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-19-733-2001.
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Abstract. Earlier revealed morphological features of the foF2 and hmF2 long-term trends are interpreted in the scope of the geomagnetic control concept based on the contemporary F2-layer storm mechanisms. The F2-layer parameter trends strongly depend on the long-term varying geomagnetic activity whose effects cannot be removed from the trends using conventional indices of geomagnetic activity. Therefore, any interpretation of the foF2 and hmF2 trends should consider the geomagnetic effects as an inalienable part of the trend analysis. Periods with negative and positive foF2 and hmF2 trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around 1955, and the end of 1960s and 1980s, where foF2 and hmF2 trends change their signs. Such variations can be explained by neutral composition, as well as temperature and thermospheric wind changes related to geomagnetic activity variations. In particular, for the period of increasing geomagnetic activity (1965–1991) positive at lower latitudes, but negative at middle and high latitudes, foF2 trends may be explained by neutral composition and temperature changes, while soft electron precipitation determines nighttime trends at sub-auroral and auroral latitudes. A pronounced dependence of the foF2 trends on geomagnetic (invariant) latitude and the absence of any latitudinal dependence for the hmF2 trends are due to different dependencies of NmF2 and hmF2 on main aeronomic parameters. All of the revealed latitudinal and diurnal foF2 and hmF2 trend variations may be explained in the frame-work of contemporary F2-region storm mechanisms. The newly proposed geomagnetic storm concept used to explain F2-layer parameter long-term trends proceeds from a natural origin of the trends rather than an artificial one, related to the thermosphere cooling due to the greenhouse effect. Within this concept, instead of cooling, one should expect the thermosphere heating for the period of increasing geomagnetic activity (1965–1991).Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances)
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Jiang, Chong, Zhen Nie, Xingmin Mu, Fei Wang, and Wenfeng Liu. "Potential evapotranspiration change and its attribution in the Qinling Mountains and surrounding area, China, during 1960–2012." Journal of Water and Climate Change 7, no. 3 (February 8, 2016): 526–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.110.
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Based on the observational data of 47 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains (NSQ) during 1960–2012, this paper estimated the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) by using the Penman–Monteith method. Further, a quantitative study was conducted of the ET0 spatial distribution pattern, temporal variation rules, influencing factors and attributions. The conclusions were as follows. (1) The spatial distribution of annual ET0 in NSQ decreased from northeast to southwest. The seasonal distribution was summer > spring > autumn > winter. (2) Further, 1979 and 1993 were the turning points of the ET0 trend, at which the value began to decrease or increase over the whole region and sub-regions. At the seasonal scale, in the period of 1960–1979, ET0 in spring, summer, and winter presented a decreasing trend; however, it increased slightly in autumn. During 1980–1993, ET0 in most seasons showed a downward trend except for autumn; in the period of 1994–2012, ET0 declined in summer and autumn, however it increased slightly in spring and winter. (3) The diurnal temperature range during 1960–1979 contributed most to ET0. The decrease of wind speed and solar radiation were the main cause of the ET0 decrease during 1980–2012, which offset the effect of the increase in temperature.
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Nielbo, Kristoffer L., Katrine F. Baunvig, Bin Liu, and Jianbo Gao. "A curious case of entropic decay: Persistent complexity in textual cultural heritage." Digital Scholarship in the Humanities 34, no. 3 (October 25, 2018): 542–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/llc/fqy054.
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AbstractTo understand an author’s developmental trajectory, the static traits and properties of author reconstruction and profiling are not sufficient. Instead, it is necessary to focus on high-level indicators of the complex set of variables that underlie the author’s transient mental states during his or her creative production. We propose a method that combines information theory with random fractal theory to study the mental dynamics of an author as indicated by text complexity. To illustrate its application, we analyze the developmental trajectory of the culturally influential and ‘graphomanic’ 19th-century Danish pastor N. F. S. Grundtvig. This approach can detect an age-related trend (entropic decay), a significant Kehre (turning point), and multiple event-related change points in his production. We argue that the approach is applicable beyond the specific case and can be extended to comparative analysis within and between authors, and, finally, to dynamic analysis of cultural information systems.
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Hou, Jiaoyi, Lishan Zhang, Yongjun Gong, Dayong Ning, and Zengmeng Zhang. "Theoretical and experimental study of scour depth by submerged water jet." Advances in Mechanical Engineering 8, no. 12 (December 2016): 168781401668239. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1687814016682392.
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The characteristics and working principles of the impinging by submerged water jet are analyzed, and the relevant mathematical model is optimized based on Rajaratnam’s theoretical and experimental study. A new mathematical model is constructed by adding an important parameter called impinging angle. A new experiment is designed according to the working conditions of various impinging distances and angles. In combination with the experiment data and with the use of the curve fitting method, the functional relationship between the impinging distance and angle as well as the coefficient C4 is obtained. The experiment results show that the scour depth decreases as impinging distance increases, followed by a trend from decline to rise before falling again; those two turning points occur within the range of 20d–25d. The scour depth constantly increases with rising impinging angle, and the maximum and minimum increasing ranges can reach 180% and 50%, respectively, with the impinging angle increasing from 40° to 90°.
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Keß, Annette, Ulrike Spielau, Christoph Beger, Ruth Gausche, Mandy Vogel, Tobias Lipek, Antje Körner, Roland Pfäffle, and Wieland Kiess. "Further stabilization and even decrease in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in German children and adolescents from 2005 to 2015: a cross-sectional and trend analysis." Public Health Nutrition 20, no. 17 (September 21, 2017): 3075–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1368980017002257.
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AbstractObjectiveRecently several industrialized countries reported a stabilization or even a decrease in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence rates. In Germany, this trend started in 2004. The present study therefore aimed to evaluate whether this trend has continued or even leads in a clear direction.Design/Setting/SubjectsBMI (>90th percentile (overweight), >97th percentile (obesity)) from the CrescNet database was analysed in 326 834 children and adolescents according to three age groups (4–7·99, 8–11·99 and 12–16 years), gender and between time points (2005–2015).ResultsTrend analysis from 2005 to 2010 demonstrated that the prevalence of overweight and obesity decreased significantly in boys and girls in the entire group (4–16 years) and in 4–7·99-year-olds. From 2010 to 2015 there was a significant decrease in boys for overweight and obesity in the entire group and for overweight among 8–11·99-year-olds. Within the cross-sectional analysis, prevalence rates for overweight decreased significantly for both genders in the age groups of 4–7·99 and 8–11·99 years (2005 v. 2015). For obesity, prevalence rates showed a significant decrease for boys (2005 v. 2015) and girls (2005 v. 2010) in 4–7·99-year-olds.ConclusionsWe observed a further stabilization of overweight and obesity prevalence rates for all age groups and even a decrease in the rates for the younger ages (4–7·99 years, 8–11·99 years). As other industrialized countries have also reported similar trends, it seems that the epidemic of childhood overweight and obesity is reaching a turning point in the industrial part of the world.
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Gachari, Francis, David M. Mulati, and Joseph N. Mutuku. "Sunspot numbers: Implications on Eastern African rainfall." South African Journal of Science 110, no. 1/2 (February 3, 2014): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2014/20130050.
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Following NASA’s prediction of sunspot numbers for the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, we now include sunspot numbers as an explanatory variable in a statistical model. This model is based on fitting monthly rainfall values with factors and covariates obtained from solar–lunar geometry values and sunspot numbers. The model demonstrates high predictive skill in estimating monthly values by achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.9 between model estimates and the measurements. Estimates for monthly total rainfall for the period from 1901 to 2020 for Kenya indicate that the model can be used not only to estimate historical values of rainfall, but also to predict monthly total rainfall. We have found that the 11-year solar sunspot cycle has an influence on the frequency and timing of extreme hydrology events in Kenya, with these events occurring every 5±2 years after the turning points of sunspot cycles. While solar declination is the major driver of monthly variability, sunspots and the lunar declinations play a role in the annual variability and may have influenced the occurrence of the Sahelian drought of the mid-1980s that affected the Sahel region including the Greater Horn of Africa. Judging from the reflection symmetry, the trend of the current maximum and the turning point of the sunspot minimum at the end of the Modern Maximum, with a 95% level of confidence, drought conditions similar to those of the early 1920s may reoccur in the year 2020±2.
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Yin, Zhicong, and Huijun Wang. "Statistical Prediction of Winter Haze Days in the North China Plain Using the Generalized Additive Model." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56, no. 9 (September 2017): 2411–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-17-0013.1.
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AbstractWinter (December–February) haze days in the North China Plain (WHDNCP) have recently dramatically increased. In addition to human activities, climate change and variability also contributed to the severe situation and supported the possibility of seasonal predictions. In this study, using the generalized additive model (GAM), the sea surface temperature around the Alaska Gulf and sea ice area of the Beaufort Sea were selected as the predictors to establish a statistical prediction model (SPM). The difference between the current and previous year of WHDNCP (WDY) was predicted first and was then added to the observation of the previous year to obtain the final predicted WHDNCP. For WDY prediction, the root-mean-square error of the SPM using GAM was 3.01 days. In addition to the annual variation, the tropospheric biennial oscillation features and the dramatically increasing trend after 2010 were both captured successfully. Furthermore, for the final predicted WHDNCP anomalies, the long-term trend and turning points were simulated well, and the percentage of the same mathematical sign was 91.7%. Independent prediction tests were performed for 2014 and 2015, and the forecast bias was 0.86 and 0.19 days, respectively. To assess the predictive ability, recycling independent tests (including real-time hindcasts for the period 2005–15) were also applied, and the percentage of the same sign was 100%.
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Wang, Minglu, Weitao Li, Yuying Tao, and Limei Zhao. "Emerging trends and knowledge structure of epilepsy during pregnancy research for 2000–2018: a bibliometric analysis." PeerJ 7 (June 7, 2019): e7115. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7115.
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Background Epilepsy during pregnancy presents a unique set of challenges for pregnant women, the fetus, and the health care community. As research in this area advances rapidly, it is critical to keep up with the emerging trends and key turning points of the development of the domain knowledge. This study aimed to construct a series of science maps to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the intellectual landscape and research frontiers in the field of epilepsy during pregnancy research. Methods All publications were extracted from the Web of Science Core Collection database. Bibliometric analysis was used to analyze the scientific research outputs, including journals, countries/regions, institutions, authors (cited authors), intellectual base and research hotspots. Results A total of 2,225 publications related to epilepsy during pregnancy were identified as published between 2000 and 2018. The overall trend of the number of publications showed a fluctuating growth from 59 articles in 2000 to 198 in 2018. Neurology was the leading journal in the field of epilepsy and pregnancy research both in terms of impact factor score (8.055) and H-index value (77). The US retained its leading position and exerted a pivotal influence in this area. The University of Melbourne was identified as a good research institution for research collaboration. Prof. Pennell and Tomson have made great achievements in this area, and Prof. Tomson laid a foundation for the development of this domain. The keyword “neonatal seizures” ranked first in research hotspots, and the keyword “autism spectrum disorders (ASD)” ranked first in research frontiers. Conclusions Epilepsy during pregnancy is a fascinating and rapid development of subject matter. A more recent emerging trend focused on comprehensive management of pregnant and lactating women, evaluation of the safety and efficacy of newer antiepileptic drugs. The keywords “management issue,” “brain injury,” “meta-analysis,” “in utero exposure,” and “ASD” were the latest research frontiers and should be closely observed.
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Vygodchikova, Irina Yu. "Approximation of life expectancy in Russia based at interval data and minimax model." Journal of Applied Informatics 16, no. 91 (February 26, 2021): 83–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.37791/2687-0649-2021-16-1-83-98.
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Article provides automated processing of interval data on dynamics life expectancy in Russians over a long period of time (more than 100 years). Software product for approximation of dynamic processes in the demographic sphere that occur under unstable trend conditions is developed. Software product is based at the author's model of spline approximation the interval data by linear polynomials. The algorithm of program uses method for finding the moments of joining linear splines using reasonable properties of solving minimax problem for dynamic series whose values are interval data: the lower limit of the interval is fixed life expectancy of men, the upper limit is fixed life expectancy of women. As result of computational experiments, the jump-type curve approximation obtained. The jump-type curve preserves important properties of modeled series and has good approximation properties. The special feature of developed software product is the ability to get an approximating function in a matter of seconds, which has high accuracy and allows you to analyze profile of demographic situation in Russia, taking into account life expectancy of men and women over a long period. Were identified key turning points (mid 20th century and beginning of 21st century, when there was decline in life expectancy of men and his essential distance from a more stable indicator for women), after which dynamics of indicators have shown an increasing trend of both indices and reducing the gap between them.
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Weisburd, David, and Badi Hasisi. "The Winding Road to Evidence-Based Policy in Corrections: A Case Study of the Israel Prison Service." Israel Law Review 51, no. 1 (February 21, 2018): 111–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021223717000218.
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There has been a growing trend in recent years towards the adoption of evidence-based policy in a variety of fields, including criminal justice. The purpose of evidence-based policy is to guide the activities of organisations based on scientifically verified facts, enabling the development of effective and efficient policies. In this article, we introduce the commitment of the Israel Prison Service (IPS) to the implementation of evidence-based policy by detailing the processes and development of a large-scale research programme in the IPS. We illustrate how the cooperation and commitment of key individuals, including successive IPS Commissioners, have enabled the implementation of evidence-based policy in a hierarchal organisation. Within this context, we demonstrate how human agency is a key factor in the successful implementation of the policy in criminal justice settings. By following the different stages of development and implementation, the example of the IPS also highlights the importance of agencies taking ownership of science. We conclude by arguing that the road to evidence-based policy is a ‘winding road’, highlighting the key turning points that influenced the institutionalisation of the policy in the IPS.
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Golubkova, Anna A. "В.В. РОЗАНОВ О Д.С. МЕРЕЖКОВСКОМ И НЕ ТОЛЬКО: К ИСТОРИИ ДВУХ РАЗГОВОРОВ." RSUH/RGGU Bulletin. Series Philosophy. Social Studies. Art Studies, no. 4 (2020): 10–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.28995/2073-6401-2020-4-10-19.
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The paper analyzes an article by Vassily Rosanov “Representatives of the ‘new religious consciousness” (1908). The article was published under the pseudonym of V. Varvarin in the newspaper Russkoe slovo (“Russian Word”), it was written in the unusual for Rosanov form of half-fiction. The article describes the ten years ago events which became turning points for the Rosanov’s world view. Those events were the acquaintance with Dmitry Merezhkovsky and Zinaida Gippius and two conversations about Christianity. Actually, in that article Rosanov reconstructed in details stages of changing his worldview and perception of religion. Notably the decadents and their unorthodox religiosity, debates with positivism, constant stylistic experiments became to him the nearest in thoughts. In the years 1896–1897 Rosanov changed his view upon the gender, marriage, correlations between New and Old Testaments. Rosanov tries to remind in his article about the early century discussions. That is why he opted for the form of estranged narration on himself as a major representatives the new trend of religious seeking. The paper also analyzes as the very mechanism of self-representation and also its purposes and results.
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Getzner, Michael. "Impacts of national parks on tourism: a case study from a prominent alpine national park." ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, no. 3 (July 2009): 103–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/efe2008-003005.
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-National parks and other categories of protected areas are often assumed to enhance regional economic development due to park tourism. The current study attempts to estimate the impact of the Hohe Tauern national park (Austria) on tourism by exploring whether and to what extent the national park may have had an influence on tourism development. For most national park communities, the results suggest that the establishment of the national park had some impact by enforcing an already positive trend or by weakening or reversing a negative trend of tourism. However, breakpoint tests exhibit turning points up to several years after the establishment of the park, indicating that taking a national park as the basis for tourism development is a medium to long term development strategy. In the short term, the impact of a national park on tourism is not measurable. Tourism increased by 1 to 3% annually after the breakpoint, indicating that the establishment of a national park has to be incorporated into the tourism and development strategy of a region right from the start. The causal relationship between the establishment of the national park and tourism development may be weak, in particular in communities where the difference between the actual and the forecast numbers of overnight stays is small. Marketing national park tourism and building up a brand or distinctive label may therefore contribute to regional development particularly in the long term.Key words: Tourism, national park, protected area, time series, stationarity, breakpoint test, ARIMA.JEL classifications: R110, L830, C220.Parole chiave: Turismo, parco nazionale, area protetta, serie temporale, stazionarietŕ, test di breakpoint, ARIMA.
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Yu, Zhuxiao, Erqi Xu, Hongqi Zhang, and Erping Shang. "Spatio-Temporal Coordination and Conflict of Production-Living-Ecology Land Functions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China." Land 9, no. 5 (May 23, 2020): 170. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9050170.
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Assessment of multiple land use functions promotes both utilization efficiency of land and regional coordination. Different personal and public products and services are offered by various land use types, meaning their functionality varies. Lack of judgment on temporal trends, turning points, or consideration of multi-source indicators like the ecological and air quality index leads to uncertainties in urban multifunctionality evaluation and functional orientation. In this study, the production-living-ecology land use function index system and evaluation process was improved using an entropy weight, triangle model, and coupling coordination degree. The production-living-ecology land use function (PLELUF) is defined from land use multi-functions. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration was the representative area. The model was applied to quantify land use functions and measure spatio-temporal coordination and conflict from 1990 to 2015. Results found that the production and living functions displayed an overall upward trend and the growth rate of production function is larger, doubling from 1990 to 1995, while living function increases steadily. Ecology function remained steady from 1990 to 2000 but increased afterward. Land use function stage became balanced in ecology-living-production after 2005. No function-balanced cities existed in 1990; nine function-balanced cities were found in 2015. The coupling coordination degree increased from a slight conflict to a high coordination. Land use multi-functionality was high in the north and low in the south in 2015; Beijing had the most significant multifunctionality. This study can aid land use zoning and sustainable land management.
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Zhang, Xin, Abilgazi Kurbaniyazov, and Georgiy Kirillin. "Changing Pattern of Water Level Trends in Eurasian Endorheic Lakes as a Response to the Recent Climate Variability." Remote Sensing 13, no. 18 (September 16, 2021): 3705. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13183705.
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Lake level is a sensitive integral indicator of climate change on regional scales, especially in enclosed endorheic basins. Eurasia contains the largest endorheic zone with several large terminal lakes, whose water levels recently underwent remarkable variations. To address the patterns of these variations and their links to the climate change, we investigated the variability of levels in 15 lakes of three neighboring endorheic regions—Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau, and Mongolian Plateau. Satellite altimetry revealed a heterogeneous pattern among the regions during 1992–2018: lake levels increased significantly in Central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau but decreased on the Mongolian Plateau. The shifts to the increasing trend were detected since 1997 in Central Asia, since 1998 in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and since 2005 in its northern part. The shift in air temperatures around 1997 and the precipitation shifts around 1998 and 2004 contributed to the trend’s turning points, with precipitation being the major contributor to the heterogeneous pattern of lake levels. Our findings reveal the linkage of the heterogeneous pattern of lake levels to climatic factors in the endorheic basins, providing a further understanding of the hydrological regime in the Eurasian endorheic zone and its sensitivity to climate change.
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Tomić, Daniel, and Saša Stjepanović. "Forecasting Capacity of ARIMA Models; A Study on Croatian Industrial Production and its Sub-sectors." Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business 20, no. 1 (May 24, 2017): 81–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/zireb-2017-0009.
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Abstract As one of the most important indicator for monitoring the production in industry as well as for directing investment decisions, industrial production plays important role within growth perspectives. Not only does the composition and/or fluctuation of the goods produced indicate the course of economic activity but it also reflects the changes in cyclical development of the economy thereby providing opportunity to macro-manage with early signs of (short-term) turning-points and (long-term) trend variations. In this paper, we compare univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of the Croatian industrial production and its subsectors in order to evaluate their forecasting features within short and long-term data evolution. The aim of this study is not to forecast industrial production but to analyze the out-of-sample predictive performance of ARIMA models on aggregated and disaggregated level inside different forecasting horizons. Our results suggest that ARIMA models do perform very well over the whole rage of the prediction horizons. It is mainly because univariate models often improve the predictive ability of their single component over the short horizons. In that manner ARIMA modelling could be used at least as a benchmark for more complex forecasting methods in predicting the movements of industrial production in Croatia.
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Martináková, Radka. "The identification the sources of fluctuations in the chosen constituents forming the household consumption." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 58, no. 6 (2010): 303–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201058060303.
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The aim of the following piece is to identify sources of the fluctuations in household consumption in components of consumption expenditure, which affect the overall household consumtion the most. In relation to my described aim, I will carry out an analysis of the business cycle, modelled on the values of final consumtion during 1999–2009. Next to the cycle analysis, using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, de-trending will be carried out and the growth cyclus obtained will be further dated.Continuing, an analysis of household expenditure and consumption in Czech republic will be carried out analogically in comparable periods of time. The next step will include an assesment of the mutual relation of the businnes cycle modelled on the final consumption expenditure and the fluctuation of household consumption in the Czech republic around their long-term trend, with use of a correlation analysis. Adjudication will be carried out for the considered period as well as for cycle divisions identified on the basis of turning points. The next step will include a calculation of the weights of individual components on overall household consumption. Based on these weights, individual components with the greatest values will be selected. These selected components will be analyzed according to fluctuations and significant factors that may have caused such fluctuations will be identified.
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Wang, Liye, Xinli Ke, and Assem Abu Hatab. "Trade-Offs between Economic Benefits and Ecosystem Services Value under Three Cropland Protection Scenarios for Wuhan City in China." Land 9, no. 4 (April 11, 2020): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9040117.
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Over the past few decades urbanization and population growth have been the main trend all over the world, which brings the increase of economic benefits (EB) and the decrease of cropland. Cropland protection policies play an important role in the urbanization progress. In this study, we assess the trade-offs between EB and ecosystem services value (ESV) under three cropland protection policy scenarios using the LAND System Cellular Automata for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE) model. The empirical results reveal that trade-offs between EB and ESV in urbanizing areas are dynamic, and that they considerably vary under different cropland protection policy scenarios. Especially, the results identify certain “turning points” for each policy scenario at which a small to moderate growth in EB would result in greater ESV losses. Among the three scenarios, we found that the cropland protection policy has the most adverse effect on trade-offs between EB and ESV and the results in the business as usual scenario have the least effect on the trade-offs. Furthermore, the results show that a strict balance between requisition and compensation of cropland is an inappropriate policy option in areas where built-up areas are increasing rapidly from the perspective of mitigating conflict between EB and ESV and the numbers of cropland protection that restrained by land use planning policy of Wuhan is a better choice.
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Barska, Magdalena. "Analysis of demand in steel and iron industry – latent variables model." Przegląd Statystyczny 66, no. 4 (April 30, 2020): 247–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0951.
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Demand in the steel and iron industry is influenced by multiple factors. Not all of them can be identified and measured. The paper presents the results of the analysis of the levels of demand achieved by a selected enterprise from this sector in the years 2010–2014. The aim of the study is to build a hidden Markov model which would reflect the turning points of this demand, thus making it possible to forecast its future levels. The model’s forecasting properties and stability have been examined. A simulation has been carried out that involved generating a high number of series for selected model parameters and checking their properties. This demonstrated that a three-state second order hidden Markov model was most relevant to the purpose of the study. Thanks to the model’s application, it was possible to describe states which could potentially shape the demand. Moreover, taking the transition state into consideration allowed spotting the signal about the upcoming replacement of the growth phase with the decline phase, and vice versa. The presented second order hidden Markov model can serve as an alternative to the traditional methods of the analysis of time series. The forecast generated by the model informs about the shaping of a trend in demand and serves as an indication of the shifts in economic cycles.
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Deutz, Daniella Bayle, Thea Marie Drachen, Dorte Drongstrup, Niels Opstrup, and Charlotte Wien. "Quantitative quality: a study on how performance-based measures may change the publication patterns of Danish researchers." Scientometrics 126, no. 4 (February 14, 2021): 3303–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11192-021-03881-7.
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AbstractNations the world over are increasingly turning to quantitative performance-based metrics to evaluate the quality of research outputs, as these metrics are abundant and provide an easy measure of ranking research. In 2010, the Danish Ministry of Science and Higher Education followed this trend and began portioning out a percentage of the available research funding according to how many research outputs each Danish university produces. Not all research outputs are eligible: only those published in a curated list of academic journals and publishers, the so-called BFI list, are included. The BFI list is ranked, which may create incentives for academic authors to target certain publication outlets or publication types over others. In this study we examine the potential effect these relatively new research evaluation methods have had on the publication patterns of researchers in Denmark. The study finds that publication behaviors in the Natural Sciences & Technology, Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) have changed, while the Health Sciences appear unaffected. Researchers in Natural Sciences & Technology appear to focus on high impact journals that reap more BFI points. While researchers in SSH have also increased their focus on the impact of the publication outlet, they also appear to have altered their preferred publication types, publishing more journal articles in the Social Sciences and more anthologies in the Humanities.
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Nawaz, Zain, Xin Li, Yingying Chen, Naima Nawaz, Rabia Gull, and Abdelrazek Elnashar. "Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Global Precipitation Products over the Largest Agriculture Region in Pakistan." Remote Sensing 12, no. 21 (November 6, 2020): 3650. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12213650.
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Spatial and temporal precipitation data acquisition is highly important for hydro-meteorological applications. Gridded precipitation products (GPPs) offer an opportunity to estimate precipitation at different time and resolution. Though, the products have numerous discrepancies that need to be evaluated against in-situ records. The present study is the first of its kind to highlight the performance evaluation of gauge based (GB) and satellite based (SB) GPPs at annual, winter, and summer monsoon scale by using multiple statistical approach during the period of 1979–2017 and 2003–2017, respectively. The result revealed that the temporal magnitude of all the GPPs was different and deviate up to 100–200 mm with overall spatial pattern of underestimation (GB product) and overestimation (SB product) from north to south gradient. The degree of accuracy of GB products with observed precipitation decreases with the increase in the magnitude of precipitation and vice versa for SB precipitation products. Furthermore, the observed precipitation revealed the positive trend with multiple turning points during the period 1979–2005. However, the gentle increase with no obvious break point has been detected during the period of 2005–2017. The large inter-annual variability and trends slope of the reference data series were well captured by Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products and outperformed the relative GPPs in terms of higher R2 values of ≥ 0.90 and lower values of estimated RME ≤ 25% at annual and summer monsoon season. However, Climate Research Unit (CRU) performed better during winter estimates as compared with in-situ records. In view of significant error and discrepancies, regional correction factors for each GPPs were introduced that can be useful for future concerned projects over the study region. The study highlights the importance of evaluation by the careful selection of potential GPPs for the future hydro-climate studies over the similar regions like Punjab Province.
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Baroiu, Nicușor, Doina Boazu, Silviu Berbinschi, and Virgil Teodor. "Modeling and Experimental Research Regarding the Temperature Distribution along Curved Cutting Edges." Advanced Materials Research 1036 (October 2014): 259–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1036.259.
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The curved cutting edge determines a variable chip thickness that leads to various may energetically load along the cutting edge. For twist drill with curved cutting edges, the machining speed variation along the major cutting edge is significant. The points belong to the drills periphery work with an increased machining speed. The thick of the detached chip by these cutting zones downwards to the periphery, versus the thick corresponding to the zones at the drills axis, may leads, in some conditions, to the evenness of the energetically load along the cutting edge, with direct influence regarding the cutting tools wearing mechanism. In this paper are presented modeling with finite elements developed in the Ansys Workbench environment, regarding the energetically load and the temperature state along the cutting edge with variable working angle, characteristic for twist drills with curved cutting edges. The modeling was made comparative with the drill with straight lined cutting edges, for the same working conditions. In the same time, presents an experimental record of an actual process. It was recorded the temperature along the cutting edge with a variable working angle in a turning process with transversal feed. There are presented results of the finite element modeling and of the experiment that simulated the cutting process at drilling. The experimental results of the finite element modeling confirm the trend for temperature evenness along the cutting edge with variable working angle regarding the drills with straight-line cutting edge.
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Richard Tucker, G. "Summary." Annual Review of Applied Linguistics 10 (March 1989): 243–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0267190500001331.
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During the past decade, since the inception of the Annual Review of Applied Linguistics, work in the field has been exciting, socially relevant, and expanding. This trend will likely continue throughout the 1990s and into the 21st Century. A variety of factors—attitudinal, demographic, economic, and sociological to mention but a few—will converge and lend urgency to the need for language educators to broaden their work. From a vantage point at the Center for Applied Linguistics, I have been repeatedly amazed during the past several years at the increasing attention focused on language issues—notice, for example, the concern with the workplace literacy crisis, the under-representation of language minority individuals in science and mathematics education and in technical fields; the continuing monolinguality of the American population, and with the credibility of young children as witnesses in sexual abuse trials. A discussion of the importance of language and literacy issues may be found today in such formerly unlikely sources as the newest book by the renowned management consultant Peter Drucker (1989). Indeed, during the past 18 months five major reports have appeared—Science for All Americans (American Association for the Advancement of Science 1989), Everybody Counts (National Research Council 1989), Workforce 2000 (Johnston 1987), Jump Start (Chisman 1989), and Turning Points (Carnegie Council on Adolescent Development 1989)—each of which presents and discusses in vivid detail the looming/educational/workplace crisis.
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Baroncini, Damiano, Pietro Osvaldo Annovazzi, Nicola De Rossi, Giulia Mallucci, Valentina Torri Clerici, Simone Tonietti, Vittorio Mantero, et al. "Impact of natural menopause on multiple sclerosis: a multicentre study." Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry 90, no. 11 (June 12, 2019): 1201–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jnnp-2019-320587.
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ObjectiveTo study the effect of natural menopause on multiple sclerosis clinical course.MethodsThis was an observational, retrospective, multicentre, cohort study. Menopause onset was defined by the final menstrual period (FMP) beyond which no menses occurred for 12 months. We included multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with FMP occurred after 2005 and a recorded follow-up of at least 2 years pre-FMP and post-FMP. We excluded patients with primary progressive course, iatrogenic menopause and with other confounders that could mask menopause onset. We compared relapse-rate and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores pre-FMP and post-FMP, searching for possible interactions with age, disease duration, cigarette smoking and nulliparity status.Results148 patients were included (mean observation: 3.5 years pre-FMP and post-FMP). Most patients (92%) received disease-modifying therapies, mainly first-lines. After menopause the annualised relapse rate (ARR) significantly decreased (from 0.21±0.31 to 0.13± 0.24; p=0.005), while disability worsened (increase of mean 0.4 vs 0.2 points after menopause; p<0.001). Older age and long-lasting disease were associated with ARR reduction (p=0.013), but not with disability worsening. Cigarette smokers showed a trend to a higher disability accumulation after menopause (p=0.059).ConclusionNatural menopause seems to be a turning point to a more progressive phase of MS. Relapse rate is also reduced after menopause, but this effect could be driven most by ageing and shifting to progressive phase in patients with long-lasting disease. Cigarette smoking could speed up disability progression after menopause.
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Gordon, Stephen. "Stochastic trends, deterministic trends, and business cycle turning points." Journal of Applied Econometrics 12, no. 4 (July 1997): 411–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(199707)12:4<411::aid-jae432>3.0.co;2-9.
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Song, Junyang. "The Relationship of Root System with the Growth and Development of Bulbs and Shoots in Lilies." HortScience 52, no. 2 (February 2017): 245–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci11463-16.
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Liliaceae Lilium is one of the most famous flower bulbs in the world. The root system bridges substance exchange between the soil and shoot and a strong root system supports the shoot growth and development. During growth, lilies develop two root systems: the basal root system and the stem root system. A few studies have currently reported the relationship between the growth of lily roots and shoots. In our study, we carried out a growth observation of lily shoots (stem and leaves) and underground parts (bulb, basal roots, and stem roots) by cutting the basal roots, stem roots and bulbs of lily. We also discussed how these treatments affected the growth of lilies. The results indicated that both bulb weight and bulb volume showed an initial decreasing and a subsequent increasing trend during growth, and the bulb weight could better reflect bulb nutrient dynamics compared with the bulb volume. The trend in bulb weight was the opposite to that of shoot weight; the bulb weight decreased at first and then increased, whereas the shoot weight first increased and decreased afterward. The turning points for both variations occurred just at the time of flowering. The variation of plant heights showed a typical S-curve and the time where plant heights entered rapid growth coincided with the time where the stem root system started to emerge. The stem root system only took 10 days to complete development. The biological significance was that after plantation, nutrients supporting the growth of the shoots is mainly supplied and maintained by the bulbs and they should be transferred to the stem roots in the shortest delay possible. During early emergence of the stem root system, substance consumed from the bulb are mainly used for the formation of stem roots and after the number of leaves has become stable, substances supplying the shoot growth are mainly from soil nutrients absorbed by the stem roots. The stem root system plays a key role in the growth and development of lily shoots, whereas the basal roots and the bulb would not affect lily growth to a significant level.
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Salois, Kendra. "Performing Piety." American Journal of Islam and Society 31, no. 4 (October 1, 2014): 121–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.35632/ajis.v31i4.1074.
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Anthropologist Karin van Nieuwkerk’s latest book-length study addresses thephenomenon, widely discussed in Egyptian media since the 1990s, of celebratedsingers, actors, and dancers who withdraw from their professions to liveaccording to what they believe are Islamically sound principles. The author of“A Trade Like Any Other”: Female Singers and Dancers in Egypt (Austin:University of Texas Press, 1995), van Nieuwkerk draws on experience andcontacts from over two decades of research. But this project, as well as its subjectsand issues, presents new challenges for the ethnographer.Each of the three main sections describes the trends of a particular decade.The first wave of famous women to retire began in the late 1980s, and thusthe first section focuses on the shared rhetorics, ideologies, and activities of“repentant” artists. From the beginning, artists cannot be read as simply adoptingwholesale Salafist ideologies, since their personal turning points bore asmuch influence from “popular” or “Sufi” religiosity as from the “rationalist”tendencies of Islamists (p. 30). In the early 1990s, as retirements peaked,Egyptian media became central to both celebrities’ and fans’ understandingof this new trend. In this section, the author focuses on debates over secular(ist)aesthetics and changing discourses on women’s participation in public life.Two generations of preachers offer different rationales for women’s retirementsor re-entry into art, reflecting the sea change incited by a generation ofMuslim Brotherhood-allied “lay preachers” such as Amr Khalid during the1990s.The 2000s are depicted as a time of experimentation. Some veiled womenchoose to return to entertainment on their own terms; their productions caterto a growing market for entertainment that reflects elite consumption habitsand piety, overcoming a longstanding association of overt piety with impoverishedCairenes and villagers. Noting other authors’ commentaries and terminology,van Nieuwkerk follows Asef Bayat in calling this market“post-Islamist” – explicitly pious but unconnected to an Islamist dream of remakingthe state (p. 203). I particularly appreciated how her insights into thesimultaneous influence of American and Gulf consumer culture dislodge easyreadings of globalization as synonymous with Americanization (pp. 227-28).The full sweep of all three sections provides a cultural history of the Islamic ...
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Jackson, E. A., E. Tamuke, and M. Jabbie. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (STIF) for Monetary Policy Decision in Sierra Leone." Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 3, no. 4 (2019): 32–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/fmir.3(4).32-48.2019.
Full textAbstract:
The study focuses on developing a model of short-term inflation forecasting (STIF) in the context of monetary policy conceptualization. The research toolkit is accompanied using the Box-Jenkins Time Series Approach (ARIMA) to analyze inflation and its risks in Sierra Leone. The proposed model is based on diagrams characterizing the constituents of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the primary means of communication to inform the general public about the uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of prices in Sierra Leone. The author points out that such an approach to monetary policy forecasting will allow the use of expert judgment to stabilize the economy in the formation of key areas of monetary policy functioning and development. The article focuses on the interpretation of risks for each of the components of the CPI, which will enhance confidence in the financial and economic decisions made by the financial management of the Bank of Sierra Leone [BSL]. Empirical findings have shown that CPI components such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and health indicate that financial shocks occurring in or outside Sierra Leone can significantly affect the overall CPI. It is stated that such a trend causes a fleeting effect of rising prices on consumer spending in the short term. The study postulates the uniqueness of the component model in the context of turning the key focus of financial management of business structures and government organizations to target sectoral events. As a result of the study, the conclusion is drawn about the need to monitor price volatility by empirically evaluating the components of the CPI basket in the forward-looking perspective. The importance of forecast is been resounded all around the globe, given its relevance in addressing the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and their significant implications for economic stabilisation and decision-making. Keywords: financial management, inflation, forecasting, consumer price index, CPI components; Sierra Leone.