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Journal articles on the topic 'Tropical Cyclone'
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Wu, Liguang, Haikun Zhao, Chao Wang, Jian Cao, and Jia Liang. "Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Review." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 39, no. 2 (January 21, 2022): 205–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1026-x.
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AbstractThe effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades. Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate, there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change. While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity, this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, historical datasets used for intensity trend detection, environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity, detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change, and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity. In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets, intertwined natural variabilities, the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment, and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones, it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.
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Wang, S. T., Y. X. Lin, W. J. Wang, B. Y. Zhang, and D. H. Zhang. "APPLICATION OF GROUND-BASED GPS WATER VAPOR DATA IN THE ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SON-TINH HITTING HAINAN ISLAND." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W10 (February 8, 2020): 1049–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w10-1049-2020.
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Abstract. Tropical cyclone as a disaster. In addition to bringing abundant precipitation to the island, the huge wind will affect the public facilities in the island. In serious cases, it directly endangers people's lives and property. Every year, the disastrous damage caused by tropical cyclone causes direct or indirect economic losses to Hainan Island.This paper studies this problem. Based on the tropical cyclone data provided by China Typhoon Network and the information provided by GPS satellite observation data and 16 meteorological observatories in Hainan Island, this paper takes the monitoring of tropical cyclone Son-Tinh No. 9 in 2018 as an example to analyze the changes of meteorological elements and precipitation during the influence period of tropical cyclone. The results show that: The changes of atmospheric pressure, temperature and relative humidity at the stations are very obvious for the transit of tropical cyclones. When the island is affected by tropical cyclones, these parameters will change significantly. Among them, the abnormal changes of atmospheric pressure and temperature can effectively express the time and extent of the influence of tropical cyclone. It can be used as one of the important indicators to judge tropical cyclone before and after landfall. Based on these obvious changes, the influence of the parameters of tropical cyclone Son-Tinh before and after landing on Hainan Island is analyzed. It can effectively analyze the disasters caused by tropical cyclones and provide some reference information.
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Lloyd, Ian D., and Gabriel A. Vecchi. "Observational Evidence for Oceanic Controls on Hurricane Intensity." Journal of Climate 24, no. 4 (February 15, 2011): 1138–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3763.1.
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Abstract The influence of oceanic changes on tropical cyclone activity is investigated using observational estimates of sea surface temperature (SST), air–sea fluxes, and ocean subsurface thermal structure during the period 1998–2007. SST conditions are examined before, during, and after the passage of tropical cyclones, through Lagrangian composites along cyclone tracks across all ocean basins, with particular focus on the North Atlantic. The influence of translation speed is explored by separating tropical cyclones according to the translation speed divided by the Coriolis parameter. On average for tropical cyclones up to category 2, SST cooling becomes larger as cyclone intensity increases, peaking at 1.8 K in the North Atlantic. Beyond category 2 hurricanes, however, the cooling no longer follows an increasing monotonic relationship with intensity. In the North Atlantic, the cooling for stronger hurricanes decreases, while in other ocean basins the cyclone-induced cooling does not significantly differ from category 2 to category 5 tropical cyclones, with the exception of the South Pacific. Since the SST response is nonmonotonic, with stronger cyclones producing more cooling up to category 2, but producing less or approximately equal cooling for categories 3–5, the observations indicate that oceanic feedbacks can inhibit intensification of cyclones. This result implies that large-scale oceanic conditions are a control on tropical cyclone intensity, since they control oceanic sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. Ocean subsurface thermal data provide additional support for this dependence, showing weaker upper-ocean stratification for stronger tropical cyclones. Intensification is suppressed by strong ocean stratification since it favors large SST cooling, but the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify is less inhibited when stratification is weak and cyclone-induced SST cooling is small. Thus, after accounting for tropical cyclone translation speeds and latitudes, it is argued that reduced cooling under extreme tropical cyclones is the manifestation of the impact of oceanic conditions on the ability of tropical cyclones to intensify.
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Surinati, Dewi, and Dwi Ayu Kusuma. "KARAKTERISTIK DAN DAMPAK SIKLON TROPIS YANG TUMBUH DI SEKITAR WILAYAH INDONESIA." OSEANA 43, no. 2 (October 30, 2018): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/oseana.2018.vol.43no.2.16.
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CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES GROWING AROUND INDONESIAN TERRITORY. Tropical cyclone is a cyclonic originates from tropical oceans and driven principally by heat transfer from the ocean. Tropical cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon characterized by the emergence of low air pressure that triggers the occurrence of strong winds due to the process of heat transfer from the equator to the latitude. This phenomenon can not be prevented, so that it has great potential to impact on the damage in the area it through. Tropical cyclones can be characterized through their life cycle, scale of power and how it impacts in the area it through. The Cempaka and Dahlia tropical cyclone occuring in 2017 greatly influenced territory of Indonesia. The effect of the cyclone causes extreme weather in Indonesia, especially in areas close to where cyclones are formed.
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Bell, Ray, Kevin Hodges, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jane Strachan, and Malcolm Roberts. "Simulation of the Global ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection by a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate 27, no. 17 (August 28, 2014): 6404–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00559.1.
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Abstract This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.
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Nakajo, Sota, Jinji Umeda, and Nobuhito Mori. "APPLICABILITY OF D4PDF DATASET TO GLOBAL STOCHASTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36v (December 31, 2020): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.26.
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Disaster damage caused by tropical cyclone has grown every year. However, our experience of tropical cyclone is not enough to evaluate very low frequent and catastrophic disaster event. Stochastic tropical cyclone model has been used for assessment of tropical cyclone disaster. Global stochastic model was improved by using a lot of ensemble Global Climate Model simulation data (d4PDF) instead of limited number of observation data. The model bias included d4PDF was corrected by each regional grid by simple statistical method and interpolation. The accuracy of new model was verified at representative regional area in different basins. Generally, the improvement is remarkable where tropical cyclones rarely passed. The variation of joint PDF of tropical cyclone change rate between previous model and present model agree with model improvement. As an example of application, the frequencies of strong tropical cyclone events of two cases were estimated.
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Zy Misa Harivelo, Rakotoarimanana, Rakotoarimanana Zy Harifidy, Pandin Moses Glorino Rumambo, and Waloejo Christrijogo Sumartono. "Analysis of tropical cyclones 2000-2020 in Madagascar." Disaster Advances 15, no. 3 (February 25, 2022): 13–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1503da1320.
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Madagascar is among the ten countries most exposed to cyclonic disasters in the world due to its geographical position. The country faces serious problems directly related to tropical cyclones every year. This research aims to analyze the cyclones in Madagascar from 2000 to 2020 focusing on the impact of the cyclone based on human losses and costs. The findings showed that during the past 20 years, 39 significant cyclones have affected Madagascar. On an average, 02 cyclones per year hit the country but its frequency has been decreasing since 2014. Cyclone Eline, Gafilo and Ivan were considered the most dangerous and have caused serious damages to the country. The number of victims caused by the cyclone, Eline, in 2000 were numerous while the cyclone Ivan in 2008 led many people to homelessness. In addition, the cyclone Gafilo in 2004 was recorded as the deadliest, costliest and has provoked many injuries including missing people. The number of victims, homeless, injured, missing and the cost of damage increase depending on the intensity of the cyclone. The East, North-East, West and Southwest coasts are most often hit by cyclones. Despite the frequency and damage of cyclones in the country, the actions carried out to reduce or mitigate the impacts of cyclones are still not sustainable, which makes the populations more vulnerable.
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Dare, Richard A., and John L. McBride. "Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 12 (December 1, 2011): 3798–808. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-10-05019.1.
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Abstract The response of sea surface temperature (SST) to tropical cyclones is studied using gridded SST data and global cyclone tracks from the period 1981–2008. A compositing approach is used whereby temperature time series before and after cyclone occurrence at individual cyclone track positions are averaged together. Results reveal a variability of several days in the time of maximum cooling with respect to cyclone passage, with the most common occurrence 1 day after cyclone passage. When compositing is carried out relative to the day of maximum cooling, the global average response to cyclone passage is a local minimum SST anomaly of −0.9°C. The recovery of the ocean to cyclone passage is generally quite rapid with 44% of the data points recovering to climatological SST within 5 days, and 88% of the data points recovering within 30 days. Although differences exist between the mean results from the separate tropical cyclone basins, they are in broad agreement with the global mean results. Storm intensity and translation speed affect both the size of the SST response and the recovery time. Cyclones occurring in the first half of the cyclone season disrupt the seasonal warming trend, which is not resumed until 20–30 days after cyclone passage. Conversely, cyclone occurrences in the later half of the season bring about a 0.5°C temperature drop from which the ocean does not recover due to the seasonal cooling cycle.
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Fang, Wei, Wenhe Lu, Jiaxin Li, and Liyao Zou. "A Novel Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Model Based on Attention Mechanism." Atmosphere 13, no. 10 (September 30, 2022): 1607. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101607.
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Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive weather systems on Earth. Accurately forecasting the landing time, location and moving paths of tropical cyclones are of great significance to mitigate the huge disasters it produces. However, with the continuous accumulation of meteorological monitoring data and the application of multi-source data, traditional tropical cyclone track forecasting methods face many challenges in forecasting accuracy. Recently, deep learning methods have proven capable of learning spatial and temporal features from massive datasets. In this paper, we propose a new spatiotemporal deep learning model for tropical cyclone track forecasting, which adopts spatial location and multiple meteorological factors to forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones. The model proposes a multi-layer ConvGRU to extract the nonlinear spatial features of tropical cyclones, while Spatial and Channel Attention Mechanism (CBAM) is adopted to overcome the large-scale problem of high response isobaric surface affecting the tropical cyclones. Meanwhile, this model utilizes a Deep and Cross framework to combine the traditional CNN model with the multi-ConvGRU model. Experiments were conducted on the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Best Track Dataset (CMA) from 2000 to 2020, and the EAR-Interim dataset provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The experimental results show that the proposed model is superior to the deep learning tropical cyclone forecasting methods.
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Koh, J. H., and C. M. Brierley. "Tropical cyclone genesis across palaeoclimates." Climate of the Past Discussions 11, no. 1 (February 6, 2015): 181–220. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-181-2015.
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Abstract. Tropical cyclone genesis is investigated for the Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene through analysis of five climate models. The genesis potential index is used to estimate this from large scale atmospheric properties. The mid-Pliocene and LGM characterise periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than pre-industrial respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The number of tropical cyclones formed each year is found to be fairly consistent across the various palaeoclimates. Although there is some model uncertainty in the change of global annual tropical cyclone frequency, there are coherent changes in the spatial patterns of tropical cyclogenesis. During the Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity of tropical cyclones appears relatively insensitive to these variations. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis during the mid-Holocene are observed to be asymmetric about the Equator: genesis is reduced in the Northern Hemisphere, but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality may have driven localised effects on tropical cyclone genesis, through changes to the strength of monsoons and shifting of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis are neither consistent between the five models studied, nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.
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Yanase, Wataru, and Hiroshi Niino. "Parameter Sweep Experiments on a Spectrum of Cyclones with Diabatic and Baroclinic Processes." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 76, no. 7 (June 18, 2019): 1917–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-18-0232.1.
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Abstract A wide range of environments that prevail over the globe generate various types of cyclones such as tropical, extratropical, and hybrid cyclones. In this paper, idealized numerical experiments are used to explore a spectrum of cyclones ranging from the diabatic type to the baroclinic type in a parameter space consisting of three environmental factors: temperature, vertical shear, and planetary vorticity. The experiments reproduce not only typical dynamics of tropical and extratropical cyclones but also their modified dynamics, which are consistent with theoretical studies; tropical cyclones are suppressed by vertical shear, while extratropical cyclones are intensified by condensational heating. The experiments also reproduce hybrid cyclones in environments with high temperature and large baroclinicity. The hybrid cyclones show multiscale dynamics in which synoptic-scale baroclinic systems spawn smaller-scale tropical cyclone–like convective cores. The spectrum of cyclones is found to be nonmonotonic in the parameter space because of a two-sided effect of the vertical shear: moderate shear weakens a tropical cyclone by tilting the small-scale vortex to the downshear, while strong shear develops a large-scale vortex of an extratropical cyclone or a hybrid cyclone through warm-air advection from the south. The indices based on the energetics and the symmetric and asymmetric structures overview the different types of cyclones in the parameter space. These parameter sweep experiments provide useful information on what environment is favorable for cyclones, particularly for intermediate environments where cyclone mechanisms are yet to be fully defined.
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OBASI, G. O. P. "WMO’s programme on tropical cyclone." MAUSAM 48, no. 2 (December 15, 2021): 103–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v48i2.3952.
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ABSTRACT. The Tropical Cyclone Programmes of WMO was established to assist the many affected countries of the world in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones, through the development of their capabilities in monitoring, forecasting and disaster prevention and preparedness. The paper discusses the factors which have together led to significant progress in this regard. These include the organization and structure of the Programme, the systems and technologies in place, and the mechanisms for training and regional cooperation among the countries of the tropical cyclone basins. Specific tropical cyclone research and operational issues of concern are also presented.
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Liang, Jia, Liguang Wu, and Guojun Gu. "Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific." Journal of Climate 31, no. 3 (January 18, 2018): 1015–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0784.1.
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Abstract As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.
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Lin, Gwo-Fong, Po-Kai Huang, and Hsuan-Yu Lin. "Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific." Journal of Hydroinformatics 15, no. 3 (February 7, 2013): 952–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.155.
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For typhoon warning centers, effective forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity is always required. The major difficulties and challenges in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity are the complex physical mechanism and the structure of tropical cyclones. The interaction between the tropical cyclone and its environment is also a complex process. In this paper, a model based on support vector machines is developed to yield the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 h forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity. Furthermore, the forecasts resulting from the proposed model are compared with those from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Cross-validation tests are also applied to evaluate the accuracy and the robustness of the proposed model. The results confirm that the proposed model can provide accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity, especially for a long lead-time. When the sample events are classified into five categories according to the Saffir-Simpson scale, the forecasts resulting from the proposed model have the best performance for events in categories 4 and 5. In addition, when a typhoon turns northward, although the water temperature drops rapidly, the proposed model still performs well. In conclusion, the proposed model is useful to improve the forecasts of tropical cyclones intensity.
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Chenchen, Ding, Fumin Ren, Yanan Liu, John L. McBride, and Tian Feng. "Improvement in the Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall over South China in the DSAEF_LTP Model by Introducing the Intensity of the Tropical Cyclone." Weather and Forecasting 35, no. 5 (October 1, 2020): 1967–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-19-0247.1.
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AbstractThe intensity of the tropical cyclone has been introduced into the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) for Landfalling Typhoon (or tropical cyclone) Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) model. Moreover, the accumulated precipitation prediction experiments have been conducted on 21 target tropical cyclones with daily precipitation ≥ 100 mm in South China from 2012 to 2016. The best forecasting scheme for the DSAEF_LTP model is identified, and the performance of the prediction is compared with three numerical weather prediction models (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System, and T639). The forecasting ability of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥ 250 and ≥100 mm) improves when the intensity of the tropical cyclone is introduced, giving some advantages over the three numerical weather prediction models. The selection of analog tropical cyclones with a maximum intensity (during precipitation over land) equaling to or higher than the initial intensity of the target tropical cyclone gives better forecasts. The prediction accuracy for accumulated precipitation is higher for tropical cyclones with higher intensity and higher observed precipitation, with in both cases positive linear correlations with the threat score.
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Pasquero, Claudia, and Kerry Emanuel. "Tropical Cyclones and Transient Upper-Ocean Warming." Journal of Climate 21, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 149–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1550.1.
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Abstract Strong winds affect mixing and heat distribution in the upper ocean. In turn, upper-ocean heat content affects the evolution of tropical cyclones. Here the authors explore the global effects of the interplay between tropical cyclones and upper-ocean heat content. The modeling study suggests that, for given atmospheric thermodynamic conditions, regimes characterized by intense (with deep mixing and large upper-ocean heat content) and by weak (with shallow mixing and small heat content) tropical cyclone activity can be sustained. A global general circulation ocean model is used to study the transient evolution of a heat anomaly that develops following the strong mixing induced by the passage of a tropical cyclone. The results suggest that at least one-third of the anomaly remains in the tropical region for more than one year. A simple atmosphere–ocean model is then used to study the sensitivity of maximum wind speed in a cyclone to the oceanic vertical temperature profile. The feedback between cyclone activity and upper-ocean heat content amplifies the sensitivity of modeled cyclone power dissipation to atmospheric thermodynamic conditions.
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Revell. "TROPICAL CYCLONE "NAMU"." Weather and Climate 6, no. 2 (1986): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/44279721.
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Revell. "TROPICAL CYCLONE 'SABA'." Weather and Climate 5, no. 2 (1985): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/44279986.
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Montgomery, Michael T., and Brian F. Farrell. "Tropical Cyclone Formation." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50, no. 2 (January 1993): 285–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<0285:tcf>2.0.co;2.
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Mulyana, Erwin, M. Bayu Rizky Prayoga, Ardila Yananto, Samba Wirahma, Edvin Aldrian, Budi Harsoyo, Tri Handoko Seto, and Yaya Sunarya. "Tropical cyclones characteristic in southern Indonesia and the impact on extreme rainfall event." MATEC Web of Conferences 229 (2018): 02007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201822902007.
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The southern region of Indonesia is one of the places where tropical cyclones grow in the southern hemisphere. During 1983-2017 there were 51 tropical cyclones occurring in the region. This study aims to understand the characteristic of tropical cyclones in southern Indonesia and their variations, both spatially and temporally, and their effect on extreme rain events in Indonesia. Historical data analysis results show that tropical cyclones in southern Indonesia generally occur in November-April with a lifetime of 7-8 days. The result of data analysis shows that the central pressure value of tropical cyclone in latitude 0°-10°S is more than 960 hPa. The value tends to be higher than the central value pressure of tropical cyclone in latitude 10°S-20°S, which has the range of values about 920-960 hPa. This study also explains that there are 9 tropical cyclones in 35 years back that grow or move closer to the Indonesian archipelago in latitude 0°-10°S. The event of tropical cyclone Dahlia at the end of 2017 also affect the enormously increase of rainfall in Gunungkidul, Yogyakarta region with the increase of rain reaches 750% from the historical average.
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Patandean, Candra Febryanto. "Influence of Enso to Variability of Rain Chain at Tropical Cyclon in Southern East Nusa Tenggara." Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Administrasi Publik 9, no. 2 (February 4, 2020): 277. http://dx.doi.org/10.26858/jiap.v9i2.12305.
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The Region of East Nusa Tenggara province which is geographically situated around Equator is an area immediately adjacent to place where the growth of tropical cyclones. This research to determine the variability of tropical cyclones that have happened, how the influence of ENSO on the variability of tropical cyclones, and how the impact of tropical cyclones on rainfall in East Nusa Tenggara. In this study, the rainfall data used is represented by 8 stations observations in the region of NTT, namely Kupang, Rote, Sabu, Waingapu, Ruteng, Maumere, Larantuka, and Alor, with period of 19 years ie the assessment year 1996-2014. The data was obtained from Era Interim ECMWF. Tropical cyclone data was obtained from JTWC-Japan and TCWC-Australia, covering a maximum sustained wind data, position, and lifetime cyclone. Rainfall data obtained from Climatological Station of Lasiana-Kupang. Results of the analysis showed that during the study period the total incidence of tropical cyclones in the south of East Nusa Tenggara many as 113 cases, with an average of 6 events cyclones per year and were distributed mainly in the winter between November and April. The results also show that ENSO influence on tropical cyclone variability indirectly to the parameter of tropical cyclones.
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Destantyo Nugroho, Anendha, and Nur Habib Muzaki. "Study of surface and vertical sea temperatures during the process of tropical cyclone formation in the territory of Indonesia (case study 2019-2021)." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 989, no. 1 (February 1, 2022): 012006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/989/1/012006.
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Abstract A tropical cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has a system of low air pressure that forms over the oceans in the warm tropics. Tropical cyclones can form in oceans with sea surface temperatures above 26.5°C. In addition to the sea surface temperature which must be more than 26.5°C, the depth of warm sea water temperature strongly supports the formation of tropical cyclones in the territory of Indonesia. In this study, research was conducted on the surface and vertical temperatures of the sea during the formation of tropical cyclones or when cyclone seeds occurred in the case of tropical cyclones that occurred in 2019-2021 in the territory of Indonesia. The data used is processed using Ocean Data View 4.1 to determine the distribution of surface and vertical sea temperatures. Based on the results on this study, the vertical distribution of sea surface temperatures during the formation of tropical cyclones in Indonesia has an average sea temperature higher than 26.5°C which reaches a depth of 64 meters to 70 meters. Then the sea surface temperature during the tropical cyclone formation process averaged 28 °C to 29 °C.
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Tang, Brian, and Kerry Emanuel. "A Ventilation Index for Tropical Cyclones." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93, no. 12 (December 1, 2012): 1901–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00165.1.
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An important environmental control of both tropical cyclone intensity and genesis is vertical wind shear. One hypothesized pathway by which vertical shear affects tropical cyclones is midlevel ventilation—or the flux of low-entropy air into the center of the tropical cyclone. Based on a theoretical framework, a ventilation index is introduced that is equal to the environmental vertical wind shear multiplied by the nondimensional midlevel entropy deficit divided by the potential intensity. The ventilation index has a strong influence on tropical cyclone climatology. Tropical cyclogenesis preferentially occurs when and where the ventilation index is anomalously low. Both the ventilation index and the tropical cyclone's normalized intensity, or the intensity divided by the potential intensity, constrain the distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. The most rapidly intensifying storms are characterized by low ventilation indices and intermediate normalized intensities, while the most rapidly weakening storms are characterized by high ventilation indices and high normalized intensities. Since the ventilation index can be derived from large-scale fields, it can serve as a simple and useful metric for operational forecasts of tropical cyclones and diagnosis of model errors.
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Hulme, Andrew L., and Jonathan E. Martin. "Synoptic- and Frontal-Scale Influences on Tropical Transition Events in the Atlantic Basin. Part II: Tropical Transition of Hurricane Karen." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 11 (November 1, 2009): 3626–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2803.1.
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Abstract A finescale simulation of the tropical transition of Atlantic Hurricane Karen in October 2001 is examined to determine the processes leading to the development of upshear convection and its effects on the process of tropical transition. The analysis shows that, as in marine extratropical cyclones, the area upshear of the pretransition cyclone is characterized by reduced stability. Lower-tropospheric frontogenesis leads to an intense burst of convection there and instigates three important processes that combine to produce a full-fledged tropical cyclone. First, the convection generates intense low-level vorticity on the western half of the cyclone, which quickly dominates the cyclone’s vorticity field eventually organizing the circulation into a small-scale, intense vortex. Second, the diabatically enhanced circulation hastens the isolation of the cyclone’s developing warm core by intensifying cold air advection on the northern and western sides of the storm and by placing evaporatively cooled air into the boundary layer to the south of the cyclone. Third, upshear convection vertically redistributes potential vorticity (PV) from the tropopause to the surface and introduces a component to the upper-level winds, which advects strong, shear-inducing PV gradients away from the column above the cyclone. These three processes transform the initial extratropical cyclone into a frontless vortex with tropical storm–force winds and a warm core in a low-shear environment. These features are sufficient, given a warm enough ocean surface, to allow self-amplification of the storm as a tropical cyclone. The results further blur the distinction between tropical and extratropical cyclones as many of the processes identified as important to transition are similar to those that characterize ordinary marine cyclones and the extratropical occlusion process with the key distinctions being that here the convection is stronger and the initial upper-level feature is weaker. Thus, tropical transition of strong extratropical precursors follows the canonical midlatitude cyclone life cycle with upshear convection serving as the catalyst that both induces and organizes processes that favor tropical cyclogenesis in the postmature phase.
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Sekaranom, Andung Bayu, Narastravika Henardi Putri, and Fatih Cinderaswari Puspaningrani. "The impacts of Seroja Tropical Cyclone towards extreme weather in East Nusa Tenggara." E3S Web of Conferences 325 (2021): 01020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202132501020.
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This paper aims to discuss the Seroja Tropical Cyclone and its impact on extreme weather. Seroja tropical cyclones occur from April 4 to 5th 2021, in the East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) region. Based on data from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the initial position of the Seroja tropical cyclone was in the Savu Sea, southwest of Timor Island. Since April 1, 2021, the NTT region has become the center of low pressure that triggers the formation of this cyclone. When a tropical storm occurs, the intensity of rainfall which initially reaches less than 60 mm/day, increases rapidly to more than 100 mm/day on April 4 to 5, 2021. This is the impact of the low-pressure center that triggers the formation of tropical cyclones in the region.
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You, Qingxiang, Zhenqing Li, Cheng Qian, and Tian Wang. "A Tropical Cyclone Center Location Method Based on Satellite Image." Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2022 (March 8, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/3747619.
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Accurately detecting and locating the center of the tropical cyclone is critical for the trajectory forecasting. This study proposed an automatic method for centers’ location of the tropical cyclones based on the visible or the infrared satellite images. The morphological structure of the tropical cyclone is modeled using the circular pattern. The tropical cyclone center is located based on regional pixels instead of skeleton points. All pixels in a segmented cloud cluster vote for a 2-dimensional accumulator. The center of the cloud cluster is computed by the mean voting distances, which are calculated by fitting quadratic functions in every column of the two-dimensional (2D) accumulator. Then, a linear function is fitted according to the functional relationship between the mean voting distance and voting angle. The fitted coefficients of the linear function are the center coordinates of the tropical cyclone. The proposed method for centers location of the tropical cyclones is tested using visible and infrared satellite images. The results of center location are compared with the best track provided in JMA datasets.
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Li, Xiaofeng, Jun A. Zhang, Xiaofeng Yang, William G. Pichel, Mark DeMaria, David Long, and Ziwei Li. "Tropical Cyclone Morphology from Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, no. 2 (February 1, 2013): 215–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00211.1.
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In 2008, the Canadian Space Agency sponsored the Radarsat Hurricane Applications Project (RHAP), for researching new developments in the application of Radarsat-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and innovative mapping approaches to better understand the dynamics of tropical cyclone genesis, morphology, and movement. Although tropical cyclones can be detected by many remote sensors, SAR can yield high-resolution (subkilometer) and low-level storm information that cannot be seen below the clouds by other sensors. In addition to the wind field and tropical cyclone eye information, structures associated with atmospheric processes can also be detected by SAR. We have acquired 161 Radarsat-1 SAR images through RHAP between 2001 and 2007. Among these, 73 images show clear tropical cyclone eye structure. In addition, we also acquired 10 images from the European Space Agency's Envisat SAR between 2004 and 2010. Both Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons are included. In this study, we analyze these 83 (73 Radarsat-1 and 10 Envisat) images with tropical cyclone eye information along with ancillary tropical cyclone intensity information from the archive to generate tropical cyclone morphology statistics. Histograms of wave-number asymmetry and intensity are presented. The statistics show that when the storm has higher intensity, the tropical cyclone eye tends to become more symmetric, and the area of the tropical cyclone eye, defined by the minimum wind area, tends to be smaller. Examples of finescale structures within the tropical cyclone (i.e., eye/eyewall mesovortices, arc clouds, double eyewalls, and abnormally high wind or rain within eyes) are presented and discussed.
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Li, Xiaohui, Jingsong Yang, Guoqi Han, Lin Ren, Gang Zheng, Peng Chen, and Han Zhang. "Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Reconstruction and Validation Using Measurements from SFMR and SMAP Radiometer." Remote Sensing 14, no. 16 (August 13, 2022): 3929. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14163929.
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Accurate information on tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure is critical for storm surge prediction. Atmospheric reanalysis datasets can provide gridded, full coverage, long-term and multi-parameter atmospheric fields for the research on the impact of tropical cyclones on the upper ocean, which effectively makes up for the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of satellite remote sensing and in situ data. However, the reanalysis data cannot accurately describe characteristic parameters of tropical cyclones, especially in high wind conditions. In this paper, the performance of the tropical cyclone representation in ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation) is investigated and analyzed with respect to IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship) during the period 2018–2020. Comparisons demonstrate that ERA5 winds significantly underestimate the maximum wind speed during the tropical cyclones (>30 m/s) compared to those provided by IBTrACS. An effective wind reconstruction method is examined to enhance tropical cyclone intensity representation in reanalysis data in 94 cases of 31 tropical cyclones 2018–2020. The reconstructed wind speeds are in good agreement with the SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer) measured data and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) L-band radiometer remotely sensed measurements. The proposed wind reconstruction method can effectively improve the accuracy of the tropical cyclone representation in ERA5, and will benefit from the establishment of remote sensing satellite retrieval model and the forcing fields of the ocean model.
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SINGH, DEVENDRA, R. C. BHATIA, and S. K. SRIVASTAVA. "Satellite analysis of tropical cyclones using NOAA-16 AMSU measurements over Indian region." MAUSAM 55, no. 1 (January 19, 2022): 149–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v55i1.962.
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The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) was launched aboard NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. AMSU measurements are now also available from NOAA-16 and NOAA-17 satellites. The AMSU is well suited for the observation of tropical cyclones because the ice clouds that cover tropical cyclones do not significantly affect its measurements. In this paper the intensity of three tropical cyclones formed over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in the month of October 1999, May and September 2001 were studied using AMSU measurements. The upper tropospheric warm core thermal anomalies over the tropical cyclone areas were computed from temperature profiles using the NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 AMSU-A measurements. It has been observed that the magnitude of the warm core temperature anomaly at about 250 hPa was an indicator of the intensity of tropical cyclones in all three cases. The order of the temperature anomaly was about 6oC in case of super tropical cyclone, 1999 while in other two cases the order of the temperature anomaly were of about 3oC for moderate tropical cyclones, 2001. Therefore, it may be stated that the AMSU data appeared to offer substantial opportunities for improvements in tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting.
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Bueti, Michael R., Isaac Ginis, Lewis M. Rothstein, and Stephen M. Griffies. "Tropical Cyclone–Induced Thermocline Warming and Its Regional and Global Impacts." Journal of Climate 27, no. 18 (September 10, 2014): 6978–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00152.1.
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Abstract Strong surface winds of a hurricane locally cool the surface and warm the subsurface waters via turbulent mixing processes. While the surface cool anomalies generally decay in roughly a month, the warm subsurface anomalies can persist over a seasonal cycle. The authors examine questions related to the magnitude and cumulative footprint of subsurface warm anomalies forced by tropical cyclones during the combined global tropical cyclone seasons, making use of a global ocean model forced by tropical cyclones. Simulations of the 2004/05 tropical cyclone season are conducted with and without tropical cyclone wind forcing, blended with the daily Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (COREs) atmospheric state. Physical characteristics of cyclone-forced surface and subsurface anomalies are elucidated. In particular, the spatial extent and magnitude of tropical cyclone–forced subsurface warm anomalies over the course of an entire season are examined. This analysis permits the estimation of the contribution of cyclone-induced anomalies to the ocean heat content and sea surface temperature, aiding in understanding anomalous meridional heat transport. Globally, there is a maximum accumulated heat uptake 4.1 × 1021 J, with the greatest regional contributions in the North Atlantic (1.7 × 1021 J), west Pacific (1.5 × 1021 J), and east Pacific (1.7 × 1021 J). An export of heat from the subtropics to the tropics via rapid advective pathways is found, most notably in the west Pacific. These warm anomalies tend to remain in the equatorial band, with potential implications for the tropical climate system.
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Makmur, E. E. S., W. Fitria, A. S. Praja, S. P. Rahayu, B. E. Pratama, R. S. S. Sudewi, H. Harsa, et al. "Strengthening the Early Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones near Indonesian Waters." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 925, no. 1 (November 1, 2021): 012010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/925/1/012010.
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Abstract In early April 2021, the territory of Indonesia, around the province of East Nusa Tenggara in particular, was severely damaged due to being hit by tropical cyclone Seroja. The impact of tropical cyclone Seroja does not only occur in Nusa Tenggara but also in Australia. In fact, the impact that hit Australia exceeded the damage that occurred in East Nusa Tenggara. The impacts caused by tropical cyclone Seroja in East Nusa Tenggara included 181 deaths and 74,222 houses damaged. Tropical cyclones are extreme weather anomalies that hit many countries, especially in the middle latitudes associated with vast oceans, such as the area around the South China Sea, the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, such as the Philippines, Japan, America, Australia, Europe, etc. Early detection systems for the genesis of tropical cyclones are still being developed by international collaborations such as The Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) in the Indian Ocean, Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) in the Pacific Ocean, and Prediction and Research Moored, Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). To find out the early sign of a tropical cyclone, it is characterized by sea surface temperatures > 26.5 C, the growth of very broad and thick convective clouds, and rotating wind speeds of > 63 km/hour. For this reason, continuous observations are needed in the area where the tropical cyclone first developed. Observation equipment required includes satellite observations, buoys, and weather radar. Unfortunately, in the territory of Indonesia, especially in the Indian and Pacific oceans around Indonesia, this equipment is not equipped with such equipment due to very expensive funding factors and vandalism constraints. For this reason, in the future, national and international cooperation will be needed to start building an early warning system for the emergence of tropical cyclones among research centers globally.
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Syaifullah, M. Djazim. "SIKLON TROPIS, KARASTERISTIK DAN PENGARUHNYA DI WILAYAH INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 2012." Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca 16, no. 2 (December 2, 2015): 61. http://dx.doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v16i2.1048.
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Tulisan ini adalah sebuah dan analisis karasteristik dari siklon tropis termasuk proses siklus hidupnya, struktur, skala kekuatan dan bagaimana pengaruhnya di daerah Indonesia. Analisis siklon tropis dikhususkan untuk kejadian-kejadian di daerah Pasifik Barat dan Laut Cina Selatan. Salah satu pengaruh siklon tropis adalah munculnya hotspot di Sumatera dan Kalimantan. Siklon tropis adalah sebuah yang fenomena meteorologi yang dengan potensi besar dampak di area kerusakan yang dilaluinya. Siklon tropis mempunyai kekuatan yang sangat besar dan tidak ada usaha manusia yang dapat mencegah atau menghilangkan siklon tropis. Siklon Tropis mempunyai siklus mulai sejak saat pembentukannya sampai kepunahannya. Ada tiga tahap : tahap pembentukan, tahap matang dan tahap pelemahan. Indonesia secara umum mendapatkan pengaruh secara tidak langsung dari keberadaan siklon tropis ini, dimana pada musim kering ini akan memperparah bencana kekeringan di beberapa daerah di Indonesia khususnya di wilayah Kalimantan dan Sumatera.Kata Kunci: siklon tropis, kebakaran hutan, hotspotThis paper is an overview and analisys of tropical cyclone charasteristics consit of their life cycle processes, structures, scale of strength and how its influence in Indonesian region. Tropical cyclone analysis is devoted to the events in the Western Pacific region and the South China Sea. Observed influence of tropical cyclones is the emergence of hot spots in Sumatera and Kalimantan as well as it happened rains in some areas. The tropical cyclone is a meteorological phenomenon with huge potential impact on the area of damage in its path. Tropical cyclone strength was so big and there was no human effort that can prevent or eliminate a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones have a life cycle starting from the moment of its formation until its extinction. There are three stages : formation stage, mature stage and attenuation stage. Indonesia generally received indirect impact on changing weather conditions. In the dry season will increase the incidence of tropical cyclone severe drought level in the region of Indonesia, particularly Sumatera and Kalimantan and result in the emergence of the number of fires (hot spot) which is quite a lot. In the wet season tropical cyclone events can cause increased rainfall causes floods, especially in areas close to the location of the cyclone, for example in the area of the northern part of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.Keywords : tropical cyclone, forest fire, hotspot
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Leijnse, Tim Willem Bart, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires. "Generating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 6 (June 7, 2022): 1863–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1863-2022.
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Abstract. Deriving reliable estimates of design water levels and wave conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenging problem of high relevance for, among other things, coastal and offshore engineering projects and risk assessment studies. Tropical cyclone geometry and wind speeds have been recorded for the past few decades only, thus resulting in poorly reliable estimates of the extremes, especially in regions characterized by a low number of past tropical cyclone events. In this paper, this challenge is overcome by using synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and wind fields generated by the open-source tool TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool) to create thousands of realizations representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. Each of these realizations is used to force coupled storm surge and wave simulations by means of the processed-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite. It is shown that the use of synthetic tracks provides reliable estimates of the statistics of the first-order hazard (i.e., wind speed) compared to the statistics derived for historical tropical cyclones. Based on estimated wind fields, second-order hazards (i.e., storm surge and waves) are computed that are generated by the first-order hazard of wind. The estimates of the extreme values derived for wind speed, wave height and storm surge are shown to converge within the 1000 years of simulated cyclone tracks. Comparing second-order hazard estimates based on historical and synthetic tracks shows that, for this case study, the use of historical tracks (a deterministic approach) leads to an underestimation of the mean computed storm surge of up to −30 %. Differences between the use of synthetic versus historical tracks are characterized by a large spatial variability along the Bay of Bengal, where regions with a lower probability of occurrence of tropical cyclones show the largest difference in predicted storm surge and wave heights. In addition, the use of historical tracks leads to much larger uncertainty bands in the estimation of both storm surges and wave heights, with confidence intervals being +80 % larger compared to those estimated by using synthetic tracks (probabilistic approach). Based on the same tropical cyclone realizations, the effect that changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, possibly resulting from climate change, may have on modeled storm surge and wave heights was computed. As a proof of concept, an increase in tropical cyclone frequency of +25.6 % and wind intensity of +1.6 %, based on literature values and without accounting for uncertainties in future climate projection, was estimated to possibly result in an increase in storm surge and wave heights of +11 % and +9 %, respectively. This suggests that climate change could increase tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards more than just the actual increase in maximum wind speeds.
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Cheung, N. K. W. "The roles of ENSO on the occurrence of abruptly recurving tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean Basin." Advances in Geosciences 6 (January 30, 2006): 139–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-6-139-2006.
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Abstract. The abruptly recurving tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean Basin during El Niño and La Niña events are studied. Temporal and spatial variations of these anomalous tracks under different phases of ENSO are shown. The anomalies of the pressure field in relation to ENSO circulation for the occurrence of the abruptly recurving cyclone tracks are investigated using fuzzy method. These are supplemented by wind field analyses. It is found that the occurrence of recurving-left (RL) and recurving-right (RR) tropical cyclones under the modification of the steering currents, including the re-adjustment of the westerly trough, the expansion or contraction of the sub-tropical high pressure, the intensifying easterly flow and the strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow, can be in El Niño or La Niña events. Evidently, there is a higher chance of occurrence of anomalous tropical cyclone trajectories in El Niño rather than La Niña events, but there is not any pronounced spatial pattern of anomalous tropical cyclone tracks. By analyzing the pressure-field, it is seen RL (RR) tropical cyclones tend to occur when the subtropical high pressure is weak (strong) in El Niño and La Niña events. More importantly, how the internal force of tropical cyclones changed by the steering current, which relies upon the relative location of tropical cyclones to the re-adjustment of the weather systems, shows when and where RL and RR tropical cyclones occur in El Niño and La Niña events.
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Bell, Ray, Jane Strachan, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, and Malcolm Roberts. "Response of Tropical Cyclones to Idealized Climate Change Experiments in a Global High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model." Journal of Climate 26, no. 20 (October 4, 2013): 7966–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00749.1.
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Abstract The authors present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change owing to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean). Tropical cyclones are identified using a feature-tracking algorithm applied to model output. Tropical cyclones from idealized 30-yr 2×CO2 (2CO2) and 4×CO2 (4CO2) simulations are compared to those identified in a 150-yr present-day simulation that is separated into a five-member ensemble of 30-yr integrations. Tropical cyclones are shown to decrease in frequency globally by 9% in the 2CO2 and 26% in the 4CO2. Tropical cyclones only become more intense in the 4CO2; however, uncoupled time slice experiments reveal an increase in intensity in the 2CO2. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity in the main development regions, is used to determine the response of tropical cyclone activity to increased atmospheric CO2. A weaker Walker circulation and a reduction in zonally averaged regions of updrafts lead to a shift in the location of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. A decrease in mean ascent at 500 hPa contributes to the reduction of tropical cyclones in the 2CO2 in most basins. The larger reduction of tropical cyclones in the 4CO2 arises from further reduction of the mean ascent at 500 hPa and a large enhancement of vertical wind shear, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, North Atlantic, and northeast Pacific.
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Liao, Fei, Ran Su, Pak-Wai Chan, Yanbin Qi, and Kai-Kwong Hon. "Observational Study on the Characteristics of the Boundary Layer during Changes in the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Landing in Guangdong, China." Advances in Meteorology 2019 (September 29, 2019): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8072914.
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Eleven tropical cyclones that landed in Guangdong Province since 2012 and experienced strengthening or weakening over the offshore area were studied. Since the structure of the tropical cyclone boundary layer significantly influences the variation of the intensity of the cyclone, continuous observations of the wind profile radar at a coastal radar station in Guangdong Province were combined with aircraft observation data of the No. 1604 “Nida” cyclone to analyse the variations in the distributions of the radial wind, tangential wind, and angular momentum in the typhoon boundary layer and the similarities and differences between the boundary layers of the 11 tropical cyclones during the strengthening or weakening of their intensities. The analysis results show that the presence of the supergradient wind and the enhancement effect of the radial inflow play important roles in enhancing the intensity of a tropical cyclone. The observations indicate that when the tangential wind velocity in the maximum wind velocity radius reaches the velocity of the supergradient wind and when the radial inflow either gradually increases towards the centre of the tropical cyclone or gradually covers the entire boundary layer, the angular momentum tends to be shifted towards the centre. At this time, the maximum radial inflow, maximum tangential wind, and maximum angular momentum are in the same height range in the vertical direction. When a strong radial outflow occurs in the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone or the area with maximum wind velocity is located in the air outflow, the angular momentum cannot easily be transported towards the centre of the typhoon. Therefore, the spatial configuration of the three physical quantities will determine future changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones. The scope of the results presented here is limited to the 11 selected cases and suggests extending the analysis to more data.
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Sampson, Charles R., Paul A. Wittmann, Efren A. Serra, Hendrik L. Tolman, Jessica Schauer, and Timothy Marchok. "Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts." Weather and Forecasting 28, no. 1 (February 1, 2013): 287–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-12-00060.1.
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Abstract An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from numerical weather prediction model surface wind field forecasts, replaces the removed winds with interpolated values from surrounding grid points, and then adds a surface wind field generated from the official forecast into the background. The modified wind fields are then used as input into the WAVEWATCH III model to provide seas consistent with the official tropical cyclone forecasts. Although this product is appealing to forecasters because of its consistency and its superior tropical cyclone track forecast, there has been only anecdotal evaluation of resulting wave fields to date. This study evaluates this new algorithm for two years’ worth of Atlantic tropical cyclones and compares results with those of WAVEWATCH III run with U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) surface winds alone. Results show that the new algorithm has generally improved forecasts of maximum significant wave heights and 12-ft seas’ radii in proximity to tropical cyclones when compared with forecasts produced using only the NOGAPS surface winds.
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Zhang, Wei. "Extreme Translation Events of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones." Atmosphere 12, no. 8 (August 12, 2021): 1032. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081032.
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Changes in the translational speed of tropical cyclones (e.g., sluggish tropical cyclones) are associated with extreme precipitation and flash flooding. However, it is still unclear regarding the spatial and temporal variability of extreme tropical cyclone translation events in the North Atlantic and underlying large-scale drivers. This work finds that the frequencies of extreme fast- and slow-translation events of Atlantic tropical cyclones exhibited a significant rising trend during 1980–2019. The extreme fast-translation events of Atlantic tropical cyclones are primarily located in the northern part of the North Atlantic, while the extreme slow-translation events are located more equatorward. There is a significant rising trend in the frequency of extreme slow-translation events over ocean with no trend over land. However, there is a significant rising trend in the frequency of extreme fast-translation events over ocean and over land. The extreme slow-translation events are associated with a strong high-pressure system in the continental United States (U.S.). By contrast, the extreme fast-translation events are related to a low-pressure system across most of the continental U.S. that leads to westerly steering flow that enhances tropical cyclone movement. This study suggests that it might be useful to separate tropical cyclone events into fast-moving and slow-moving groups when examining the translational speed of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, instead of examining regional or global mean translational speed.
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Schreck, Carl J., John Molinari, and Anantha Aiyyer. "A Global View of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis." Monthly Weather Review 140, no. 3 (March 1, 2012): 774–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00110.1.
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Abstract This study investigates the number of tropical cyclone formations that can be attributed to the enhanced convection from equatorial waves within each basin. Tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances (i.e., easterly waves) were the primary tropical cyclone precursors over the Northern Hemisphere basins, particularly the eastern North Pacific and the Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, the number of storms attributed to TD-type disturbances and equatorial Rossby waves were roughly equivalent. Equatorward of 20°N, tropical cyclones formed without any equatorial wave precursor most often over the eastern North Pacific and least often over the western North Pacific. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was an important tropical cyclone precursor over the north Indian, south Indian, and western North Pacific basins. The MJO also affected tropical cyclogenesis by modulating the amplitudes of higher-frequency waves. Each wave type reached the attribution threshold 1.5 times more often, and tropical cyclogenesis was 3 times more likely, within positive MJO-filtered rainfall anomalies than within negative anomalies. The greatest MJO modulation was observed for storms attributed to Kelvin waves over the north Indian Ocean. The large rainfall rates associated with tropical cyclones can alter equatorial wave–filtered anomalies. This study quantifies the contamination over each basin. Tropical cyclones contributed more than 20% of the filtered variance for each wave type over large potions of every basin except the South Pacific. The largest contamination, exceeding 60%, occurred for the TD band near the Philippines. To mitigate the contamination, the tropical cyclone–related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.
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Schneider, Douglas, and Scott Sharp. "Radar Signatures of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in Central North Carolina." Weather and Forecasting 22, no. 2 (April 1, 2007): 278–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf992.1.
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Abstract During the tropical cyclone season of 2004, there were four tropical cyclones that spawned tornadoes in central North Carolina: Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne. This study examines the environmental characteristics and radar signatures from these events. The tornado warning decision-making process is a difficult one during any severe weather event, but it is even more difficult in a tropical cyclone environment because of the subtlety of features and rapid tornadogenesis that can occur. Previous studies that have examined the characteristics of a tropical cyclone environment found that high low-level moisture content, high shear, and a midlevel intrusion of dry air are favorable for tornadoes. The tropical cyclones that are examined in the current study all exhibited these characteristics. Radar signatures associated with these tornadoes were more subtle and weaker when compared with nontropical cyclone tornadoes, but were still discernable. This study analyzed the radar signatures from tornadic and nontornadic storms in a tropical cyclone environment with the purpose of determining the best indicators of tornadogenesis. Three precursors were found to give good lead time for tornado touchdowns: 1) a near gate-to-gate mesocyclone rotational velocity of 20 kt (10.3 m s−1) or greater, 2) a hook or appendage signature in the reflectivity data, and 3) the presence of a velocity enhancement signature of 30 kt (15.4 m s−1) or greater between 7000 ft (2.1 km) and 14 000 ft (4.2 km) AGL. Using these signatures together in the tornado warning decision-making process can increase lead time and accuracy in the tropical cyclone environment.
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Xiao, Fengjin, Yizhou Yin, Yong Luo, Lianchun Song, and Dianxiu Ye. "Tropical cyclone hazards analysis based on tropical cyclone potential impact index." Journal of Geographical Sciences 21, no. 5 (August 21, 2011): 791–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0880-3.
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RAO, A. V. R. KRISHNA. "Tropical cyclones - Synoptic methods of forecasting." MAUSAM 48, no. 2 (December 15, 2021): 239–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v48i2.4007.
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The tropical cyclone is one of the most destructive natural disasters which is capable of causing loss of life and damage to the property. Strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges associated with the cyclones, are the phenomena which are responsible for causing the damage. The issue of warnings about the impending cyclones in time help to reduce the loss of lives that the cyclone causes. To forecast its formation, structure and movement, the processes involved in its evolution and subsequent movement, are to be understood well. In this article an attempt has been made to review the literature about the cyclone characteristics and its structure. Synoptic methods of forecasting its formation and movement are also reviewed. Existing literature on their association with QBO and ENSO is also summarized. Some forecasting rules that may be of help to an operational forecaster are mentioned.
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Piñeros, Miguel F., Elizabeth A. Ritchie, and J. Scott Tyo. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data." Weather and Forecasting 26, no. 5 (October 1, 2011): 690–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05062.1.
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Abstract This paper describes results from a near-real-time objective technique for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite infrared imagery in the North Atlantic Ocean basin. The technique quantifies the level of organization or axisymmetry of the infrared cloud signature of a tropical cyclone as an indirect measurement of its maximum wind speed. The final maximum wind speed calculated by the technique is an independent estimate of tropical cyclone intensity. Seventy-eight tropical cyclones from the 2004–09 seasons are used both to train and to test independently the intensity estimation technique. Two independent tests are performed to test the ability of the technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity accurately. The best results from these tests have a root-mean-square intensity error of between 13 and 15 kt (where 1 kt ≈ 0.5 m s−1) for the two test sets.
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HOLT, M. W., and J. C. R. HUNT. "Prediction of sea state under tropical cyclones in the UK Met Office operational global wave model." MAUSAM 48, no. 4 (November 24, 2021): 621–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v48i4.4351.
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The United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) routinely runs a global operational numerical weather prediction model. Surface winds from this model are used by a spectral wave model to forecast sea state. A brief description is given of the formulation of the wave model, and two cases of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are examined using the archived data generated in real time by the operational wave model. These are Tropical Cyclone 3B, 14-15 June 1996 and Tropical Cyclone 07B, 4-6 November 1996. At a resolution of 1.25° in longitude by 0.833° in latitude the numerical weather prediction model does not represent the dynamics of a tropical cyclone and the surface wind speeds are underestimated. Consequently, the extreme sea state generated by a Tropical Cyclone is not modelled. However, the wave model was able to generate a long period swell of over 3m height, which propagated away from the area of generation. Finally, work in progress to blend the operational numerical model surface winds with synthetically generated tropical cyclone surf winds, for use in the operational wave model, is outlined.
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SINGH, O. P., TARIQ MASOOD ALI KHAN, and MD SAZEDUR RAHMAN. "Tropical cyclone frequency in the north Indian Ocean in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon." MAUSAM 52, no. 3 (January 11, 2022): 511–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v52i3.1720.
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The present paper deals with the influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The results show that during the negative phase of SO the frequency of tropical cyclones and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea diminishes in May which is most important pre-monsoon cyclone month. The correlation coefficient between the frequency of cyclones and depressions and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +0.3 which is significant at 99% level. Post-monsoon cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal during November shows a significant positive correlation with SOl implying that it also decreases during the negative phase of SO. Thus there is a reduction in the tropical cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during both intense cyclone months May and November in EI-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epochs. Therefore it would not be correct to say that ENSO has no impact on the cyclogenesis in the north Indian Ocean. It is true that ENSO has no significant impact on the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. ENSO also seems to affect the rate of intensification of depressions to cyclone stage. The rate of intensification increases in May and diminishes in November in the north Indian Ocean during ENSO. The results are based on the analysis of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones and depressions and SOI for the 100 year period from 1891-1990.
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Aiyyer, Anantha, and Terrell Wade. "Acceleration of tropical cyclones as a proxy for extratropical interactions: synoptic-scale patterns and long-term trends." Weather and Climate Dynamics 2, no. 4 (November 5, 2021): 1051–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1051-2021.
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Abstract. It is well known that rapid changes in tropical-cyclone motion occur during interaction with extratropical waves. While the translation speed has received much attention in the published literature, acceleration has not. Using a large data sample of Atlantic tropical cyclones, we formally examine the composite synoptic-scale patterns associated with tangential and curvature components of their acceleration. During periods of rapid tangential acceleration, the composite tropical cyclone moves poleward between an upstream trough and downstream ridge of a developing extratropical wave packet. The two systems subsequently merge in a manner that is consistent with extratropical transition. During rapid curvature acceleration, a prominent downstream ridge promotes recurvature of the tropical cyclone. In contrast, during rapid tangential deceleration or near-zero curvature acceleration, a ridge is located directly poleward of the tropical cyclone. Locally, this arrangement takes the form of a cyclone–anticyclone vortex pair. On average, the tangential acceleration peaks 18 h prior to extratropical transition, while the curvature acceleration peaks at recurvature. These findings confirm that rapid acceleration of tropical cyclones is mediated by interaction with extratropical baroclinic waves. Furthermore, the tails of the distribution of acceleration and translation speed show a robust reduction over the past 5 decades. We speculate that these trends may reflect the poleward shift and weakening of extratropical Rossby waves.
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Chen, Rui, Weimin Zhang, and Xiang Wang. "Machine Learning in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling: A Review." Atmosphere 11, no. 7 (June 27, 2020): 676. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070676.
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Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoing progress as well as the many remaining problems. Machine learning, as a means of artificial intelligence, has been certified by many researchers as being able to provide a new way to solve the bottlenecks of tropical cyclone forecasts, whether using a pure data-driven model or improving numerical models by incorporating machine learning. Through summarizing and analyzing the challenges of tropical cyclone forecasts in recent years and successful cases of machine learning methods in these aspects, this review introduces progress based on machine learning in genesis forecasts, track forecasts, intensity forecasts, extreme weather forecasts associated with tropical cyclones (such as strong winds and rainstorms, and their disastrous impacts), and storm surge forecasts, as well as in improving numerical forecast models. All of these can be regarded as both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that at present, the potential of machine learning has not been completely exploited, and a large amount of multi-source data have also not been fully utilized to improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting. The challenge is that the predictable period and stability of tropical cyclone prediction can be difficult to guarantee, because tropical cyclones are different from normal weather phenomena and oceanographic processes and they have complex dynamic mechanisms and are easily influenced by many factors.
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Frank, William M., and George S. Young. "The Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclones." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 10 (October 1, 2007): 3587–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3435.1.
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Abstract This paper examines the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in each of the earth’s cyclone basins using data from 1985 to 2003. The data are first analyzed using a Monte Carlo technique to investigate the long-standing myth that the global number of tropical cyclones is less variable than would be expected from examination of the variability in each basin. This belief is found to be false. Variations in the global number of all tropical cyclones are indistinguishable from those that would be expected if each basin was examined independently of the others. Furthermore, the global number of the most intense storms (Saffir–Simpson categories 4–5) is actually more variable than would be expected because of an observed tendency for storm activity to be correlated between basins, and this raises important questions as to how and why these correlations arise. Interbasin correlations and factor analysis of patterns of tropical cyclone activity reveal that there are several significant modes of variability. The largest three factors together explain about 70% of the variance, and each of these factors shows significant correlation with ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), or both, with ENSO producing the largest effects. The results suggest that patterns of tropical cyclone variability are strongly affected by large-scale modes of interannual variability. The temporal and spatial variations in storm activity are quite different for weaker tropical cyclones (tropical storm through category 2 strength) than for stronger storms (categories 3–5). The stronger storms tend to show stronger interbasin correlations and stronger relationships to ENSO and the NAO than do the weaker storms. This suggests that the factors that control tropical cyclone formation differ in important ways from those that ultimately determine storm intensity.
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Larson, Joshua, Yaping Zhou, and R. Wayne Higgins. "Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico: Climatology and Interannual Variability." Journal of Climate 18, no. 8 (April 15, 2005): 1247–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3317.1.
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Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones and their impacts on precipitation in the continental United States and Mexico are examined. The analysis is based on National Hurricane Center 6-hourly tropical cyclone track data for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and gridded daily U.S. precipitation data for the period August–October 1950–98. Geographic maps of total tropical cyclone strike days, and the mean and maximum percentage of precipitation due to tropical cyclones, are examined by month. To make the procedures objective, it is assumed that precipitation is symmetric about the storm’s center. While this introduces some uncertainty in the analysis, sensitivity tests show that this assumption is reasonable for precipitation within 5° of the circulation center. The relationship between landfalling tropical cyclones and two leading patterns of interannual climate variability—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)—are then examined. Relationships between tropical cyclone frequency and intensity and composites of 200-hPa geopotential height and wind shear anomalies are also examined as a function of ENSO phase and AO phase using classifications devised at the Climate Prediction Center. The data show that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is modulated on both seasonal and intraseasonal time scales by the AO and ENSO and that impact of the two modes of climate variability is greater together than apart. This suggests that, during La Niña conditions, atmospheric circulation is more conducive to activity in the main development region during AO-positive conditions than during AO-negative ones and that, during El Niño conditions, atmospheric circulation appears even less conducive to tropical cyclone development during the negative phase of the AO than during the positive phase.
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Cattiaux, Julien, Fabrice Chauvin, Olivier Bousquet, Sylvie Malardel, and Chia-Lun Tsai. "Projected Changes in the Southern Indian Ocean Cyclone Activity Assessed from High-Resolution Experiments and CMIP5 Models." Journal of Climate 33, no. 12 (June 15, 2020): 4975–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0591.1.
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AbstractThe evolution of tropical cyclone activity under climate change remains a crucial scientific issue. Physical theory of cyclogenesis is limited, observational datasets suffer from heterogeneities in space and time, and state-of-the-art climate models used for future projections are still too coarse (~100 km of resolution) to simulate realistic systems. Two approaches can nevertheless be considered: 1) perform dedicated high-resolution (typically <50 km) experiments in which tropical cyclones can be tracked and 2) assess cyclone activity from existing low-resolution multimodel climate projections using large-scale indices as proxies. Here we explore these two approaches with a particular focus on the southern Indian Ocean. We first compute high-resolution experiments using the rotated-stretched configuration of our climate model (CNRM-CM6-1), which is able to simulate realistic tropical cyclones. In a 2-K warmer world, the model projects a 20% decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones, together with an increase in their maximum lifetime intensity, a slight poleward shift of their trajectories, and a substantial delay (about 1 month) in the cyclone season onset. Large-scale indices applied to these high-resolution experiments fail to capture the overall decrease in cyclone frequency, but are able to partially represent projected changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone activity. Last, we apply large-scale indices to multimodel CMIP5 projections and find that the seasonal redistribution of cyclone activity is consistent across models.