Academic literature on the topic 'Unchanged'

Within the field of computational linguistics, recent research has made successful advances in integrating word space models with n-gram models. This is of particular interest when a model that encapsulates both semantic and syntactic information is desirable. A potential application for this can be found in the field of psycholinguistics, where the neural response N400 has been found to occur in contexts with semantic incongruities. Previous research has found correlations between cloze probabilities and N400, while more recent research has found correlations between cloze probabilities and language models. This essay attempts to uncover whether or not a more direct connection between integrated models and N400 can be found, hypothesizing that low probabilities elicit strong N400 responses and vice versa. In an EEG experiment, participants read a text manipulated using a language model, and a text left unchanged. Analysis of the results shows that the manipulations to some extent yielded results supporting the hypothesis. Further results are found when analysing responses to the unchanged text. However, no significant correlations between N400 and the computational model are found. Future research should improve the experimental paradigm, so that a larger scale EEG recording can be used to construct a large EEG corpus.
Innom datalingvistikken har tidligere forskning gjort framsteg når det gjelder å kombinere ordromsmodeller og n-grammodeller. Dette er av spesiell interesse når det er ønskelig å ha en modell som fanger både semantisk og syntaktisk informasjon. Et potensielt bruksområde for en slik modell finnes innom psykolingvistikk, der en neural respons som kalles N400 vist seg å oppstå i kontekster med semantisk inkongruens. Tidligere forskning har oppdaget en sterk korrelasjon mellom cloze probabilities og N400, og nylig forskning har funnet korrelasjoner mellom cloze probabilities og sannsynlighetsmodeller fra datalingvistikk. Denne oppgaven har som mål å undersøke hvorvidt en mer direkte kobling mellom slike kombinerte modeller og N400 finnes, med hypotesen at lave sannsynligheter leder til store N400-responser og omvendt. Et antall forsøkspersoner leste en tekst manipulert ved hjelp av en slik modell, og en naturlig tekst, i et EEG-eksperiment. Resultatsanalysen viser at manipuleringene til en viss grad gav resultat som støtter hypotesen. Tilsvarende resultat ble funnet under resultatanalysen av responsene til den naturlige teksten. Ingen signifikante korrelasjoner ble oppdaget mellom N400 og den kombinerte modellen. Forbedringer for videre forskning involverer å blant annet forbedre eksperimentparadigmet slik at en storstilt EEG-inspilling kan gjennomføres for å konstruere en EEG-korpus.
Inom datalingvistiken har tidigare forskning visat lovande resultat vid kombinering av ordrumsmodeller och n-gramsmodeller. Detta är av speciellt intresse när det är önskvärt att ha en modell som fångar både semantisk och syntaktisk information. Ett potensielt användningsområde för en sådan modell finns inom psykolingvistiken, där en neural respons kallad N400 visat sig uppstå i situationer med semantisk inkongruens. Tidigare forskning har upptäckt en stark korrelation mellan cloze probabilities och N400, medan en nyare studie har upptäckt en korrelation mellan cloze probabilities och sannolikhetsmodeller från datalingvistiken. Denna uppsats har som mål att undersöka huruvida en mer direkt koppling mellan sådana kombinerade modeller och N400 finns, med hypotesen att låga sannolikheter leder till stora N400-responser och vice versa. Ett antal försökspersoner läste en text manipulerad med hjälp av en probabilistisk modell, och en naturlig text, i ett EEG-experiment. Resultatsanalysen visar att manipuleringen till viss grad gav resultat som stödjer hypotesen. Motsvarande resultat hittades under resultatanalysen av responserna till den naturliga texten. Inga signifikanta korrelationer blev upptäckta mellan N400 och den kombinerade modellen. Förbättringar för vidare forskning involverar bland annat att förbättra experimentparadigmet så att en storskalig EEG-inspelning kan genomföras för att konstruera en EEG-korpus.

Today, all companies face a challenge to cope with the globalized market, where organizations continuously establish on new markets in new countries. Different cultures meet and must be able to collaborate in an organization. The increased economic growth as well as the explosive Swedish tourism in Thailand today attracts more and more Swedish companies to the Thai market. It is likely that this can lead to different cultural challenges where people from different cultures meet and are forced to adapt to each other's established norms and behaviors. Our study aims to investigate the cultural challenges experienced by Swedish executives in Thailand. Our purpose is to identify the largest cultural challenges experienced by Swedish executives and to understand why this may be perceived as a cultural challenge among the Swedish executives. A qualitative method and a semi-structured interview form have been used in the conduct of the survey. The result showed that the main cultural challenges experienced by the Swedish executives were hierarchy, view of a leader, crosscultural leadership and collectivism. The Buddhist religion, the strongly established norms of Thai culture and the executives own positive and adaptable attitude towards cultural challenges proved to be the reason why these cultural challenges were experienced by the Swedish executives.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
中國文學研究所
100
This thesis argues that there is an antithetical quality in the “structure of feeling” of Qu Yuan’ works, and the multiple subjects in his works, including conflicting emotions, dilemmatic situations and the melancholy of withering away are all symbols of this quality. He Yi-Sun once described the spirit of Li Sao (“Encountering Sorrow”) as “the changed and the unchanged”, and if we could extend its meaning so as to form a theory or interpretation, the same spirit might also has the potential to be the foundation of Qu Yuan’ works as a whole. This thesis thus puts different works like Li Sao, Jiu Ge (“Nine Songs”), Tian Wen (“Heavenly Questions”) in stages which vary from subjectivity to objectivity, regarding them as different patterns of “self” in each stage, so as to illustrate the changes and connections between self-patterns in Qu Yuan’ works. When in autobiographical poems like Li Sao and Jiu Zhang (“Nine Pieces”), the collapse or objectification of self is at its beginning. This objectification of self might appear as “time”, “sorrow” or “body” as they were mentioned by Chen Shi-Xiang, Xu You-Fang or Liao Dong-liang, but no matter how it appears, it is unintelligible to the self, and thus bring about the splitting of the self and the beginning of meaning-making. While the self undergoes its split or objectification, this chapter will then explore the “pathway” metaphors in Li Sao and Jiu Zhang by means of contemporary theory of metaphor, in the attempt to disclose how the diverse metaphorical situations could associate with the same self. The ritualistic or dramatic forms in Jiu Ge force the self to touch upon something beyond itself, and therefore make it become more objective. In this stage, the convergence of personas of gods, ritualistic details and lyrical expressions replace the original autobiographical style of the self. This chapter will explore the further split or objectification of the self, including issues like how these changes create the unique expression of Jiu Ge, and how the self could still connect with its passed pattern after these changes. The objectification of self is at the summit in Tian Wen. The extreme quest toward an objective world as a whole takes the self far away from its own subjectivity, and thus produces all the transient fragments in Tian Wen. Under the pressure of the extreme objectivity and a universe which is ever expanding, the self has to face its limits and becomes more and more perceptual. Until at last, it perceives the universe, the myths, the history and the fate of itself in a manner which is totally different than before. After considering the “self” of Qu Yuan’ works in different stages, exploring the relation between them, this thesis goes on to develop ideas which were already established. Comparing to the structure containing Li Sao, Jiu Zhang, Jiu Ge and Tian Wen, Yuan You (“Far-off Journey”) and Zhao Hun (“Summons of the soul”) both are very different representations of subjectivity. While the former makes the subject escape completely from the world by ideas of Xien (the immortals), the latter forms a world which is completely empty of the subject. Due to their extreme representations of subjectivity, neither of them have the antithetical quality which is the ground of Li Sao, Jiu Zhang, Jiu Ge and Tian Wen. However, through the effort of interpreters who try to establish a link between Qu Yuan and these two works, we will discover again that how the antithetical quality in the “structure of feeling” as well as the objectification of self both serve as key elements when it comes to Qu Yuan’s works.

碩士
東吳大學
法律學系
101
This essay aims to discuss the issues of bona fide possession system. The spirit of bona fide possession system is to ensure convenience of the transaction ,and to respect to safety of ownership of personal property,which is the direction of the solution.However, as the increasing number of separation of ownership and occupation, the ownership with unchanged occupation under bona fide possession system is worthy to discuss. Opinions on the issue of the relevant legislative examples in other countries differ from the academia. After the legislative amendment in 2010,it seems that the issue has been appropriately solved,but actually the related depate of the academia on the issue still has not been settled down. Therefore, by analysis of the legislation system in different countries, the study on changed opinion of the practice, the legislative amendment and the comparison of theories of schools, we expect for a appropriate solution. In conclusion, finally it is supposed to bring up questions and suggestions in the end. This essay is divided into six chapters as follows: Chapter 1: Preface  Explain the main idea of the essay, which is the spirit of the bona fide possession system. In other words, that is how to balance the benefit between transaction safety and ownership of personal property safety.Then, illustrate the motivation, study area and research purposes, research framework, research methods, literature review and expected results. Chapter 2: Study of the practical case and Bringing up the questions Studying the most relavant case which is thoroughly discussed by judicial practice .With observation on the case in appealing, we can realize the changd opinions of the judicial practice. By studying on the case, we can clearly find out the debate,and bring up the question of the eventually in this chapter. Chapter 3: Historical development and comparative observation of the bona fide possession system Through the introduction of the origin and the evolution of the bona fide possession system, this article observes how the Roman law and Germanic law influence the bona fide possession system. Futhermore, This article also observes the relevant legislative examples in other countries and discusses their respective normative content as the basis for the comparative study. Finally, the article illustrates the legislation and the legislative amendment at the bona fide possession system in our country, Chapter 4: The bona fide possession system The chapter discusses the ensurence of safety of the transaction and ownership of personal property. Simultaneously, it also explans the meaning, the relevant concepts and the directional principles of the bona fide possession system. Besides, the chapter indicates the relation of the bona fide possession system and non-right disposition. Then, the last paragraph discusses the Abstraktionsprinzip and the bona fide possession system, and finally explans the essential elements of the bona fide possession system. Chapter 5: The debate in the application of the ownership with unchanged occupation under bona fide possession system As the discussion and study in the preceding chapters, this chapter emphasizes the main question brought up by the chapter 2. in this essay. By comparative observation of the Bona Fide possession system and the legislative amendment at this system in our country, the article conducts the comparative analysis of the laws before and after legislative amendment, and researchs in the relevant changd opinion of the practice.Through observing theories of different schools, this chapter discusses about the debate in the application of the ownership with unchanged occupation under bona fide possession system. F. Chapter 6: Conclusion Comprehends and summarizes the discussion and analysis of foregoing chapters.

碩士
國立臺北教育大學
藝術與造形設計學系碩士班
103
This thesis starts with Cai Guo-Qiang’s life and work experience, and then his art works, the concept of creation, then research how he applies gunpowder to his art, his habitual artistic methods, the ways of his exhibition and the museum mechanism. This research uses Howard S. Becker’s Art Worlds as a point of view, to analyze Cai Guo-Qiang's Cai Studio, hope to understand this collaboration mode causes what kind of effect to Cai Guo-Qiang. The second part research as a Chinese artist, Cai Guo-Qiang, resided overseas from Japan to America many years, he uses cultural symbols communicating with different cultural, and relate to contemporarian issues such as globalization and multicultural, research Cai’s values on the art works. This part deals three topics of Cai's art works in the context of locality and globalization：human and nature, universal caring and conversations in time and space between the east and the west, and then observe the international prestige and criticism he got as an overseas Chinese artist.

碩士
南華大學
傳播學系
102
This study analyzed the images of women in the workplace in dramas in Taiwan. The changed and unchanged role/sexual role construction through the years are explored. There are quite a few trendy dramas addressing women in the workplace since 2008. The study looked at how women were portrayed as pink-collar workers by using the method of discourse analysis. 　 　　To do the longitudinal research, the study reviewed the literature and documents about the history of drama, drama and movie texts in the past, and workforce development and structure change in Taiwan to capture images of women workers. 　 　　This study found that women’s worker role has finally been recognized by the mainstream drama, yet some sexual stereotypes still show in the workplace drama. However, women were also described to work for themselves to pursue a better quality of life, to support their parents, to buy a car or a house. Women in these trendy dramas seem independent to some extent. This is different from the traditional dramas in which women were often portrayed in family affair and romantic relationship, and were able to gain a happy life “only” with some man.

碩士
國立臺中教育大學
幼兒教育學系碩士班
98
Preschool Workers’ Changed or Unchanged Attitude Toward Infant Children’s Applying Computer to Create Digital Stories Yi-Hui Lin Abstract The research aimed to understand preschool workers’ attitude toward infant children’s applying computer to create digital stories and the change because of realization, and explored the issue that they paid close attention to. The research adopted the experimental intervention method and purposive sampling, and elected four groups of participants that were 26 preschool workers in total; the pre-test and post-test tool was “Questionnaire of attitude toward infant children’s applying computer to create digital stories,” and the film of infant children’s practically applying computer to create digital stories and focus group interview were used as the tools of intervention. The research findings are as follows: I. Presently the ways of blending information technology into teaching that the teachers used were mainly manufacturing teaching content, classroom presentation, and collecting information through internet. Mostly, the ways of blending information technology into teaching that the teachers chose belonged to the 1st level not integrated and the 2nd level integrated; among them, teachers’ transmitting message were the most, and the teachers were the main users. II. The reasons from being unfavorable to favorable were: 1. The infant children’s time of creation didn’t have to be very long, and it had only slight influence on the vision. (2) Knowing new software. (3) The software was easy to use. The main cause of objection before and after the intervention was the considerations on vision and operation ability. The teachers of approval before and after the intervention showed that they had a new understanding for the software after the experimental intervention, and they were willing to bring and integrate the way of letting infant children apply computer to create digital stories into their own teaching. III. After the experimental intervention, the preschool workers thought that providing open-ended creative software was a learning method suitable for infant children to apply computer. The overall comprehension degree for infant children’s applying computer to create digital stories was significantly boosted after focus group interview. IV. The issues that they followed with interest in the focus group interview were: The approval for infant children’s applying computer to create digital stories, protecting the vision by restricting the operating time, it was very important that the software was easy to operate, and the facilities were uneasy to get. Keywords: Preschool workers, Open-ended software, Focus group interview, Information technology integrated instruction, Digital story creation.

The coronavirus pandemic has had serious economic consequences. As a result, the demand for consumer goods and services has fallen sharply, and the service sector is suffering huge losses. Accordingly, revenue also fell, while the mandatory costs remained unchanged: loan payments, rent payments, salaries, taxes and social contributions. The resulting cash gap is likely to lead to massive bankruptcies.

This paper presents a 3-D optimization of a moderately loaded transonic compressor rotor by means of a multi-objective optimization system. The latter makes use of a Differential Evolutionary Algorithm in combination with an Artificial Neural Network and a 3D Navier-Stokes solver. Operating it on a cluster of 30 processors enabled the optimization of a large design space composed of the tip camber line and spanwise distribution of sweep and chord length. Objectives were an increase of efficiency at unchanged stall margin by controlling the shock waves and off-design performance curve. First, tests on a single blade row allowed a better understanding of the impact of the different design parameters. Forward sweep with unchanged camber improved the peak efficiency by only 0.3% with a small increase of the stall margin. Backward sweep with an optimized S shaped camber line improved the efficiency by 0.6% with unchanged stall margin. It is explained how the camber line control could introduce the forward sweep effect and compensate the negative effects of the backward sweep. The best results (0.7% increase in efficiency and unchanged stall margin) have been obtained by a stage optimization that also considered the spanwise redistribution of the rotor flow and loading to reduce the Mach number at the stator hub.

Limited information exists about enrollment in Part D prescription coverage by Medicare beneficiaries with cancer. Part D coverage may increase access to medicines. This study evaluated patterns of Part D uptake and costs and assessed the effects of coverage on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) use among people with colorectal cancer (CRC). We analyzed Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)–Medicare linked data on fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries with at least 36 months of follow-up who were diagnosed with CRC at any point from January 2007 through December 2010, and a matched cohort of beneficiaries without cancer. Dual (Medicare/Medicaid) enrollees were excluded because they are automatically enrolled in Part D. Among beneficiaries with CRC (n=12,774), 39 percent had complete Part D coverage, defined as coverage in the diagnosis year and 2 subsequent years; the rate was 38 percent in the matched comparison cohort (P=.119). Among those with complete Part D coverage, there was no significant difference in annual prescription drug costs between people with CRC ($3,157, 95% confidence interval [CI]: $3,098–$3,216) and without ($3,113, 95% CI: $3,054–$3,172). Among people with CRC, odds of ED use ranged from unchanged to marginally higher for those with no or partial Part D coverage, (adjusted odds ratio: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00–1.18), compared with those with complete Part D coverage. Lack of continuous Part D coverage was associated with more ED use among Medicare FFS beneficiaries with CRC in 2007–2013. Among people with Part D coverage, prescription drug costs varied little between those with CRC and matched beneficiaries without cancer.

For many decades in Tunisia, there has been a robust link between natural resource management and contentious national and local politics. These disputes manifest in the form of protests, sit-ins, the disruption of production and distribution and legal suits on the one hand, and corporate and government response using coercive and concessionary measures on the other. Residents of resource-rich areas and their allies protest the inequitable distribution of their local natural wealth and the degradation of their health, land, water, soil and air. They contest a dynamic that tends to bring greater benefit to Tunisia’s coastal metropolitan areas. Natural resource exploitation is also a source of livelihoods and the contentious politics around them have, at times, led to somewhat more equitable relationships. The most important actors in these contentious politics include citizens, activists, local NGOs, local and national government, international commercial interests, international NGOs and multilateral organisations. These politics fit into wider and very longstanding patterns of wealth distribution in Tunisia and were part of the popular alienation that drove the uprising of 2011. In many ways, the dynamic of the contentious politics is fundamentally unchanged since prior to the uprising and protests have taken place within the same month of writing of this paper. Looking onto this scene, commentators use the frame of margins versus centre (‘marginalization’), and also apply the lens of labour versus capital. If this latter lens is applied, not only is there continuity from prior to 2011, there is continuity with the colonial era when natural resource extraction was first industrialised and internationalised. In these ways, the management of Tunisia’s natural wealth is a significant part of the country’s serious political and economic challenges, making it a major factor in the street politics unfolding at the time of writing.

This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.

Objective. To conduct a systematic review of the literature on the safety of vaccines recommended for routine immunization in the United States, updating the 2014 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) report on the topic. Data sources. We searched MEDLINE®, Embase®, CINAHL®, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Scopus through November 9, 2020, building on the prior 2014 report; reviewed existing reviews, trial registries, and supplemental material submitted to AHRQ; and consulted with experts. Review methods. This report addressed three Key Questions (KQs) on the safety of vaccines currently in use in the United States and included in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommended immunization schedules for adults (KQ1), children and adolescents (KQ2), and pregnant women (KQ3). The systematic review was supported by a Technical Expert Panel that identified key adverse events of particular concern. Two reviewers independently screened publications; data were extracted by an experienced subject matter expert. Studies of vaccines that used a comparator and reported the presence or absence of adverse events were eligible. We documented observed rates and assessed the relative risks for key adverse events. We assessed the strength of evidence (SoE) across the existing findings from the prior 2014 report and the new evidence from this update. The systematic review is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020180089). Results. A large body of evidence is available to evaluate adverse events following vaccination. Of 56,608 reviewed citations, 189 studies met inclusion criteria for this update, adding to data in the prior 2014 report, for a total of 338 included studies reported in 518 publications. Regarding vaccines recommended for adults (KQ1), we found either no new evidence of increased risk for key adverse events with varied SoE or insufficient evidence in this update, including for newer vaccines such as recombinant influenza vaccine, adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine, and recombinant adjuvanted zoster vaccine. The prior 2014 report noted a signal for anaphylaxis for hepatitis B vaccines in adults with yeast allergy and for tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccines. Regarding vaccines recommended for children and adolescents (KQ2), we found either no new evidence of increased risk for key adverse events with varied SoE or insufficient evidence, including for newer vaccines such as 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine and meningococcal B vaccine. The prior 2014 report noted signals for rare adverse events—such as anaphylaxis, idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, and febrile seizures—with some childhood vaccines. Regarding vaccines recommended for pregnant women (KQ3), we found no evidence of increased risk for key adverse events with varied SoE among either pregnant women or their infants following administration of tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccines during pregnancy. Conclusion. Across this large body of research, we found no new evidence of increased risk since the prior 2014 report for key adverse events following administration of vaccines that are routinely recommended. Signals from the prior report remain unchanged for rare adverse events, which include anaphylaxis in adults and children, and febrile seizures and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura in children. There is no evidence of increased risk of adverse events for vaccines currently recommended in pregnant women. There remains insufficient evidence to draw conclusions about some rare potential adverse events.

This study is the latest in a series monitoring the evolution of poverty, based on data gathered by The ESRI in the Living in Ireland Surveys since 1994. These have allowed progress towards achieving the targets set out in the National Anti Poverty Strategy since 1997 to be assessed. The present study provides an updated picture using results from the 2000 round of the Living in Ireland survey. The numbers interviewed in the 2000 Living in Ireland survey were enhanced substantially, to compensate for attrition in the panel survey since it commenced in 1994. Individual interviews were conducted with 8,056 respondents. Relative income poverty lines do not on their own provide a satisfactory measure of exclusion due to lack of resources, but do nonetheless produce important key indicators of medium to long-term background trends. The numbers falling below relative income poverty lines were most often higher in 2000 than in 1997 or 1994. The income gap for those falling below these thresholds also increased. By contrast, the percentage of persons falling below income lines indexed only to prices (rather than average income) since 1994 or 1997 fell sharply, reflecting the pronounced real income growth throughout the distribution between then and 2000. This contrast points to the fundamental factors at work over this highly unusual period: unemployment fell very sharply and substantial real income growth was seen throughout the distribution, including social welfare payments, but these lagged behind income from work and property so social welfare recipients were more likely to fall below thresholds linked to average income. The study shows an increasing probability of falling below key relative income thresholds for single person households, those affected by illness or disability, and for those who are aged 65 or over - many of whom rely on social welfare support. Those in households where the reference person is unemployed still face a relatively high risk of falling below the income thresholds but continue to decline as a proportion of all those below the lines. Women face a higher risk of falling below those lines than men, but this gap was marked among the elderly. The study shows a marked decline in deprivation levels across different household types. As a result consistent poverty, that is the numbers both below relative income poverty lines and experiencing basic deprivation, also declined sharply. Those living in households comprising one adult with children continue to face a particularly high risk of consistent poverty, followed by those in families with two adults and four or more children. The percentage of adults in households below 70 per cent of median income and experiencing basic deprivation was seen to have fallen from 9 per cent in 1997 to about 4 per cent, while the percentage of children in such households fell from 15 per cent to 8 per cent. Women aged 65 or over faced a significantly higher risk of consistent poverty than men of that age. Up to 2000, the set of eight basic deprivation items included in the measure of consistent poverty were unchanged, so it was important to assess whether they were still capturing what would be widely seen as generalised deprivation. Factor analysis suggested that the structuring of deprivation items into the different dimensions has remained remarkably stable over time. Combining low income with the original set of basic deprivation indicators did still appear to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation as a result of prolonged constraints in terms of command over resources, and distinguished from those experiencing other types of deprivation. However, on its own this does not tell the whole story - like purely relative income measures - nor does it necessarily remain the most appropriate set of indicators looking forward. Finally, it is argued that it would now be appropriate to expand the range of monitoring tools to include alternative poverty measures incorporating income and deprivation. Levels of deprivation for some of the items included in the original basic set were so low by 2000 that further progress will be difficult to capture empirically. This represents a remarkable achievement in a short space of time, but poverty is invariably reconstituted in terms of new and emerging social needs in a context of higher societal living standards and expectations. An alternative set of basic deprivation indicators and measure of consistent poverty is presented, which would be more likely to capture key trends over the next number of years. This has implications for the approach adopted in monitoring the National Anti-Poverty Strategy. Monitoring over the period to 2007 should take a broader focus than the consistent poverty measure as constructed to date, with attention also paid to both relative income and to consistent poverty with the amended set of indicators identified here.

Key Message Ontario long-term care (LTC) home residents have experienced disproportionately high morbidity and mortality, both from COVID-19 and from the conditions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes, if implemented. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Third, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by approaches that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Summary Background The Province of Ontario has 626 licensed LTC homes and 77,257 long-stay beds; 58% of homes are privately owned, 24% are non-profit/charitable, 16% are municipal. LTC homes were strongly affected during Ontario’s first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Questions What do we know about the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Ontario LTC homes? Which risk factors are associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario LTC homes and the extent and death rates associated with outbreaks? What has been the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the general health and wellbeing of LTC residents? How has the existing Ontario evidence on COVID-19 in LTC settings been used to support public health interventions and policy changes in these settings? What are the further measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes? Findings As of January 14, 2021, a total of 3,211 Ontario LTC home residents have died of COVID-19, totaling 60.7% of all 5,289 COVID-19 deaths in Ontario to date. There have now been more cumulative LTC home outbreaks during the second wave as compared with the first wave. The infection and death rates among LTC residents have been lower during the second wave, as compared with the first wave, and a greater number of LTC outbreaks have involved only staff infections. The growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC residents was slower during the first two months of the second wave in September and October 2020, as compared with the first wave. However, the growth rate after the two-month mark is comparatively faster during the second wave. The majority of second wave infections and deaths in LTC homes have occurred between December 1, 2020, and January 14, 2021 (most recent date of data extraction prior to publication). This highlights the recent intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic in LTC homes that has mirrored the recent increase in community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across Ontario. Evidence from Ontario demonstrates that the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and subsequent deaths in LTC are distinct from the risk factors for outbreaks and deaths in the community (Figure 1). The most important risk factors for whether a LTC home will experience an outbreak is the daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the communities surrounding the home and the occurrence of staff infections. The most important risk factors for the magnitude of an outbreak and the number of resulting resident deaths are older design, chain ownership, and crowding. Figure 1. Anatomy of Outbreaks and Spread of COVID-19 in LTC Homes and Among Residents Figure from Peter Hamilton, personal communication. Many Ontario LTC home residents have experienced severe and potentially irreversible physical, cognitive, psychological, and functional declines as a result of precautionary public health interventions imposed on homes, such as limiting access to general visitors and essential caregivers, resident absences, and group activities. There has also been an increase in the prescribing of psychoactive drugs to Ontario LTC residents. The accumulating evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been leveraged in several ways to support public health interventions and policy during the pandemic. Ontario evidence showed that SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC staff was associated with subsequent COVID-19 deaths among LTC residents, which motivated a public order to restrict LTC staff from working in more than one LTC home in the first wave. Emerging Ontario evidence on risk factors for LTC home outbreaks and deaths has been incorporated into provincial pandemic surveillance tools. Public health directives now attempt to limit crowding in LTC homes by restricting occupancy to two residents per room. The LTC visitor policy was also revised to designate a maximum of two essential caregivers who can visit residents without time limits, including when a home is experiencing an outbreak. Several further measures could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by measures that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Third, LTC homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Other important issues include improved prevention and detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTC staff, enhanced infection prevention and control (IPAC) capacity within the LTC homes, a more balanced and nuanced approach to public health measures and IPAC strategies in LTC homes, strategies to promote vaccine acceptance amongst residents and staff, and further improving data collection on LTC homes, residents, staff, visitors and essential caregivers for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interpretation Comparisons of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the LTC setting reveal improvement in some but not all epidemiological indicators. Despite this, the second wave is now intensifying within LTC homes and without action we will likely experience a substantial additional loss of life before the widespread administration and time-dependent maximal effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The predictors of outbreaks, the spread of infection, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes are well documented and have remained unchanged between the first and the second wave. Some of the evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been effectively leveraged to support public health interventions and policies. Several further measures, if implemented, have the potential to prevent additional LTC home COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.