Academic literature on the topic 'United States – Economic conditions – 1971-'

AbstractThis study measures the effects of macroeconomic conditions upon the popularity of the incumbent party in Canadian federal general elections from 1945 to 1988. In so doing it uses a model similar to the retrospective voting models used in electoral studies in the United States. The results suggest that for the elections from 1945 to 1972, bad economic conditions preceding the election benefited the incumbent party. For the elections from 1974 to 1988, these effects were diminished or reversed. Such results have precedents in separate studies that use Canadian poll data. However, they contradict the general conclusion of American studies that bad conditions hurt the incumbent. This contradiction suggests that the model's assumptions about voting behaviour, which appear to be verified by the American studies, do not apply universally.

The article presents the experience of Japan in the post-war reconstruction of the country in the period 1945–1991. The socio-economic situation of the country after the Second World War was considered. The historical stages of the country's development in the period under study are determined. The historical conditions in which the country found itself in the postwar period are analyzed. Key historical figures who influenced the development of the country were identified. The directions and measures of reforming and development of the country are revealed and presented. The importance of external factors and foreign policy for the country's assertion on the world stage has been proved. The factors of creating an effective political system, effective public administration, sustainable social and human development are formulated. It was proved that the United States has played an important role in forcing both Japan's political and economic systems. The United States provided Japan with significant financial, economic, and food aid to Japan. During the war between the United States and Korea and Vietnam, the United States placed military orders in Japan, which contributed to the development of the country's industrial base. It was found that the quality of the labor force, its general education and professional level played an extremely important role in the reconstruction of the economy. The effective state regulation of economic development in Japan, which on the one hand was aimed at developing the civil sector of the economy, and on the other at concentrating efforts on cooperation between government and private business at the stage of developing solutions to economic development, played a critical role in "Japanese miracle".

Abstract: After the reform of the world monetary system in 1971, the competition between countries for the global market is taking place in completely new conditions. Monetary and fiscal authorities have accumulated vast experience in regulating the economy and strengthening country competitive advantages through complex mechanisms of quantitative easing, foreign exchange rates manipulation, increasing debts, etc. Overcoming the consequences of the financial crises of the 21st century every time forces monetary regulators to implement increasingly radical measures in order to save the economy by injecting enormous amounts of liquidity into the market to buy out bad corporate debts as well as government debt securities. At the same time, the questions of how monetary policy affects the level of economic inequality and who is its beneficiary are becoming more relevant.The article seeks to analyze the impact of changes in monetary policy parameters on wealth inequality in the United States. Given the cyclical nature of economic inequality, the main method of research was chosen as a graphical statistical analysis, since it allows to identify trends effectively and keep in focus more than 100-year picture of changes in the analyzed indicators. For a more holistic picture, the dynamics of economic wealth inequality level were compared not only with key indicators of monetary policy, but also with the dynamics of marginal tax rates in US.One conclusion of the research is that wealth inequality depends more on fiscal adjustment and marginal tax rates than on monetary factors. Inadequate marginal income and inheritance tax rates are factors of rising of wealth inequality in US. Changing of monetary system settings also influences on the level of wealth inequality, because it affects the valuation of financial assets, and therefore the wealth of the richest people in US. Another important conclusion is the idea that the new monetary policy, despite all fears that it is a source of growing economic inequality, is acceptable with marginal income and inheritance tax rates of about 60% and with effective macroprudential regulation of US economy.

As this short history of occupational safety and health before and after establishment of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) clearly demonstrates, labor has always recognized perils in the workplace, and as a result, workers’ safety and health have played an essential part of the battles for shorter hours, higher wages, and better working conditions. OSHA’s history is an intimate part of a long struggle over the rights of working people to a safe and healthy workplace. In the early decades, strikes over working conditions multiplied. The New Deal profoundly increased the role of the federal government in the field of occupational safety and health. In the 1960s, unions helped mobilize hundreds of thousands of workers and their unions to push for federal legislation that ultimately resulted in the passage of the Mine Safety and Health Act of 1969 and the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970. From the 1970s onward, industry developed a variety of tactics to undercut OSHA. Industry argued over what constituted good science, shifted the debate from health to economic costs, and challenged all statements considered damaging.

<p class="AbstractText">The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between fiscal policy, economic growth and stock market in the United States. This issue has gained importance in the last decade because the market has changed. A significance break has been detected which impacts the nature of the nexus between certain variables. The correlation between the tax revenues and the stock market has increased noticeably, encouraging the revision of the current approach to fiscal policy. This study examines relationship between three variables, namely real GDP, federal government current tax receipts and the stock market represented by the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Quarterly data from 1971 to 2015 are used, divided into two subsets in the year 2000, because there is an obvious change in trend and volatility of the variables. The analysis uses ADF and KPSS unit root tests to find the order of the integration of the data. Subsequent analysis applies Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analysis. The results demonstrate that the selected variables are cointegrated, and performance of the stock market significantly increases its influence on government tax revenues in the second period. The findings of this paper are significant for policy makers. Understanding how stock market development and economic growth influence tax revenues and vice versa is crucial for the efficient implementation of successful fiscal policy. Investors in the economy of the United States will be also able to benefit from these results which will help them to understand economic conditions and improve their investment decisions. </p>

The analysis of historical experience of development and protection of competition is carried out in the context of history of development of economic relations, formation and development of the Antimonopoly legislation and practice of its application. Ensuring the development and protection of competition is evaluated taking into account the values and philosophies, the development of economic doctrines, based on the ongoing changes in the economy and technological shifts. More than a thousand years of experience of antimonopoly regulation in India, the Roman Empire and Byzantium is summarized. The antitrust experience of the United States revealed based on the analysis of history of development of economic relations in the country studies of the background of the U.S. antitrust laws in the late XIX century describes the main conditions and precedents of the application of the antitrust laws of the United States, the major structural changes in the economy in the XX century. Examples of adjustment of priorities of antitrust policy of the USA in the conditions of dynamic changes in the XXI century are given. The main stages of the millennial history of market relations in Russia are considered, including the analysis of the most important monuments of Russian history (Russkaya Pravda 1016, Kormchaya kniga 1274, the Cathedral Code of Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich 1649). The basic Antimonopoly provisions of the decrees of the Peter I era, which initiated the formation of the Antimonopoly legislation and the development of competition, the Antimonopoly norms of the Criminal and Correctional Penalties Act of 1845, approved by Nikolay I for half a century of the appearance of antitrust legislation in the United States, are investigated. The history of the development of organized trade during the development of the Russian North, Siberia and the Far East, the practice of countering the monopolization and cartelization of the economy of pre-revolutionary Russia are studied. The reasons and mechanism of monopolization and cartelization of the Russian and the Soviet economy after 1917 are revealed. The ideologies of socialism and capitalism and the reasons for their isolation from the practice of economic development are assessed. The practice of formation and development of economic relations in the Soviet period is investigated.

The paper gives a comprehensive picture of fundamental issues connected with the Irish ?economic miracle?, with especial regard to globalisation effect. The analysis of Ireland?s economic development in the period from 1960 to 2003 answers the question why it decelerated, instead of accelerating, for a long time: two decades after the accession to the European Community in 1973 and mainly the enigma, the ?economic miracle? why the rate of growth accelerated in the decade after 1993 to an extent (on annual average to almost 8 percent) similar to that previously observed only in East Asia. The country has not only caught up economically with the European Union, but has approximated the level of development of the United States. The analysis shows that all this can be attributed not only to Ireland?s favourable conditions, but also to an adequate economic policy and foreign direct investment. The author reveals the so-called globalisation effect that in Ireland after 1993 had a decisive role in the extraordinary acceleration of economic growth.

Many advanced economies have an aging population that relies heavily on government pensions, social security, and privately held investment-based income. In the United States the geography of social security and investment income (collectively called nonearnings income) is uneven. Furthermore, the ways in which migration serves to redistribute such income across space remain unstudied. This paper highlights regions in the United States that are becoming increasingly attractive to nonearnings income through migration. Overall, there is a consistent Rustbelt-to-Sunbelt shift in nonearnings income due to migration. These income shifts, however, are quite distinct between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Starting in the late 1980s, nonmetropolitan portions of the Rustbelt enjoyed net gains in nonearnings income through migration processes. Therefore, it appears that the migration systems which drew income away from the nonmetropolitan north during the 1970s are now shifting to some degree. Analysis further indicates that migration contributes to greater levels of economic disparity across space. Whereas flows of social security income are highly influenced by the aggregate level of migration, flows of investment income are more influenced by differentials in migrants' per capita income levels. Regions such as the Plains are attracting migrants with relatively low per capita nonearnings income whereas the Rocky Mountain and New England regions are attracting individuals with high per capita income. Destinations such as the Rocky Mountains and New England are likely to enjoy significant economic benefits as new sources of income arrive which are tied to migration, but the Plains region is left with less-well-off populations, which pose significant social and economic problems in such sending regions. As the population in the United States and other advanced economies ages, these processes of nonearnings income migration become increasingly important in shaping local and regional economic conditions.

Mexico experienced relative political stability during the period of President Porfirio Diaz. This process was accompanied by accelerated capitalist development with dependence on foreign capital and the preservation of precapitalist features. The President of the country Diaz created favorable conditions for the penetration of foreign capital into the country's economy. Great Britain has shown an interest in establishing strong economic relations with the Mexican state, seeking to consolidate its economic dominance in the Latin American market. With the backing of the Diaz government in Mexico, major British entrepreneurs such as Whitman Pearson received favorable conditions to grow their businesses. At the same time, the country experienced a serious confrontation between Britain and the United States of America for influence on the Mexican economy and politics. The focus of the article is on the relationship between Great Britain and Mexico during the revolution of 1910-1917. The study reveals the position of London in relation to the Mexican governments replacing each other during the revolutionary events, headed by General Victoriano Huerta and the leader of the constitutionalists Venustiano Carranza.

Utilizing shift/share and economic base analysis, data covering employment, income, and population are analyzed for each of the nine regions of the United States as defined by the Census Bureau. The study covers 1970 through 1984 because widespread redistribution of employment and a shift toward more service-oriented, white collar jobs occurred during this period. This study presents currents trends and recommends ways in which people may better prepare for the future.

The main task of this thesis is to investigate economic implications of U.S.- China trade. The study period covers from 1972 to 1992. Data are available from International Financial Statistics, Survey of Current Business, Statistical Yearbook of P.R.China. Various hypotheses are employed to explain the basis and gain of trade, the impact of trade on both economies, and the major determinants of bilateral trade flows. This thesis contains five parts: I. Introduction; II. Outlook; III. Theoretical Analysis; IV. Empirical Study; and V. Conclusion. The major findings of this thesis are that both countries have gained advantages from trade and have also faced some unpleasant problems; several widely recognized theories serve as good approaches to understand these issues; the time series distributed lag models are helpful in explaining the determinants of trade flows.

A set of forecast survey data is analyzed in this paper for properties consistent with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. Standard statistical tests for "rational expectations" are employed utilizing consensus forecasts generated by an interest rate newsletter. Four selected variables (Fed Funds rate, M1 rate of growth, rate of change in CPI, and real GNP growth rate) are analyzed over multiple time horizons. Results tend to reject "rational expectations" for most variables and time horizons. Forecasts are more likely to meet "rationality" criteria the shorter the forecast horizon, with the notable exception of forecasts of real GNP growth.

This dissertation examines the theory and practice of development in South Vietnam’s Second Republic from the aftermath of the 1968 Tet Offensive to the signing of the Paris Peace Accords in 1973. Based on Vietnamese and American archival material, it explores the development approaches of both the South Vietnamese and United States governments. In particular, it examines the ways in which South Vietnamese elites and U.S. officials in Washington and Saigon responded to the various development paradigms on offer to postcolonial states between the 1950s and 1970s, namely modernization theory, community development, land reform, and an emerging neoliberal economics. In doing so the dissertation makes three primary arguments. In contrast to much of the literature on the final years of the American War in Vietnam, this dissertation argues that development remained a crucial component of the United States’ and South Vietnamese strategy after the Tet Offensive. It highlights both the continuities and changes in U.S. approaches to international development between the Johnson and Nixon years as well as arguing that debates about development strategies in Vietnam during this time presaged larger shifts in international development later in the 1970s. Secondly, it argues that South Vietnamese elites had a transnational development vision. They not only employed U.S. theories of development but also drew on the lessons offered by other states in the Global South, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. Finally, the dissertation argues that the South Vietnamese government employed development to earn domestic legitimacy and shore up its authoritarian governance. The dissertation makes three historiographical interventions. Firstly, it illuminates U.S. development practice in the Nixon era. Secondly, the dissertation shows that South Vietnamese officials shaped development outcomes, thus granting agency that is largely absent from accounts of this period. Finally, it demonstrates that historians must place South Vietnam within the larger framework of decolonization and East Asian anti-Communism.

This thesis attempts to analyze the market response of stock prices of major U.S. banks to the February, 1987 Brazilian loan default announcement. The study's general hypothesis is that the market revalued stock prices according to each bank's amount of Brazilian loan exposure. The first chapter examines the significance of the default announcement. A survey of related literature is presented in the second chapter. Chapter III specifies the methodological techniques involved in analysis of the data. Chapter IV reports the findings of the study. Conclusions about the results are drawn in Chapter V. The results indicate the market is efficient. They also suggest that individual exposure was the major determinant of bank stock price decline.

The financial crisis facing the United States savings and loan industry has been steadily escalating over the last decade. During this time, accounting treatments concerning various thrift institution transactions have also attracted a great deal of attention. The specialized accounting treatments used in the thrift industry, known as regulatory accounting practices (RAP) have been blamed as one of the culprits hindering the regulators' ability to detect serious financial problems within many institutions. Accordingly, RAP was phased out, and all federally insured savings and loan associations began preparing their financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) as of January 1, 1989. The purpose of this dissertation is to compare the relative predictive values of the two historical cost based accounting conventions (RAP and GAAP) available to the savings and loar? industry during the 1980's. For purposes of this dissertation, predictive value is defined as the usefulness in assessing future financial health and viability. The sample consisted of all the institutions reporting to the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas between 1984 and 1989. Year-end thrift financial report data, obtained from Sheshunoff Information Services, Inc. (Austin, Texas) was used to calculate several financial ratios. The Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas provided a comprehensive listing of all institutions that failed between January 1, 1985 and March 31, 1989. The null hypothesis tested in this study was: no significant differences existed between the predictive values of RAP and GAAP financial statements. Using a dichotomous dependent variable (failed/not failed) and independent variables from prior research, several multinomial logistic models were developed to test the null hypothesis. All models developed failed to reject the null hypothesis.

I use variation in childhood exposure to the Dust Bowl, an environmental shock to health and income, as a natural experiment to explain variation in adult human capital. I also examine a variety of mechanisms by which the Dust Bowl influenced later-life wellbeing, and investigate the scope for recovery from this early-life shock. I find that exposure to the Dust Bowl in childhood has statistically significant and economically meaningful adverse impacts on later-life outcomes, for instance, increasing disability and reducing fertility and college completion. These results hold even after accounting for the possibly confounding effects of the Great Depression, migration, and selective fertility or mortality. The effects I find are more severe for those born in agricultural states, suggesting that the Dust Bowl was most damaging via the destruction of agricultural livelihoods. This collapse of farm incomes, however, had the positive effect of increasing high school completion amongst the exposed, likely by reducing the demand for child farm labor where such labor was not essential to production, and thus decreasing the opportunity costs of secondary schooling; in this outcome, unlike in college completion, family income and student ability were irrelevant. Many of the worst adverse effects are found amongst those exposed prenatally and in early childhood, suggesting that congenital complications in capability development, together with low parental incomes in utero and thereafter, may be to blame for such later-life disadvantage. Together, these findings imply that the Dust Bowl acted largely "indirectly," as an economic shock that in turn affected in utero and early-life conditions, rather than "directly," through personal exposure (e.g. dust inhalation) in childhood. Lastly, results - particularly those on New Deal expenditure - imply both that remediation from early-life disaster is possible under the right circumstances, and that post-shock investment may have compensated for rather than reinforced damage to child endowments. The findings in this study are consistent with a multi-stage model of human capability formation, in which investments in one period respond to endowments in a previous one, and may either reinforce or compensate for these endowments.

This thesis explores the relationship between identity, social interaction, and social practice, through a case study of young diasporans of Ethiopian origin (YDEOs) from North America and their engagements in Ethiopian development initiatives. Specifically, I examine the ways in which people of Ethiopian descent born and/or raised in Canada and the U.S. construct a diasporic identity and engage with Ethiopian development initiatives through a mutually constitutive process. My methods were qualitative and involved conducting semi-structured in-depth interviews with 55 YDEOs and attending 8 community events in Toronto, Washington, D.C., and Addis Ababa. All of the YDEOs I interviewed had actively engaged in initiatives (based in North America or Ethiopia) intended to contribute towards the social, political, and/or economic development of Ethiopia. Their initiatives included fundraising events, establishing local NGOs, volunteer missions, and taking professional positions within the Ethiopian development sector, among others. Utilising an interactionist theoretical framework, I unpack YDEO motivations for engaging in Ethiopian development, the nature of the development activities themselves, and the ways in which these experiences have shaped YDEO relationships, identities, and trajectories in life so far. Engaging in Ethiopian development was rarely expressed as an extension of a pre-existing sense of Ethiopian patriotism; rather, YDEOs used these practices to explore, test, or build a sense of connection to their country of origin. Further, the development framework made it possible for them to forge a relationship that also resonated with their other social identities, and could even be leveraged to further other personal and professional goals. YDEO engagements in Ethiopian development were not simply interventions; they were fundamentally social processes defined by social interactions. In the process of organising fundraising events, volunteering at orphanages, and working on project reports, YDEOs were also building personal connections, gaining social capital, and redefining attitudes towards their families, communities, development, and Ethiopia itself. This thesis contributes an in-depth and critical analysis of the diaspora/development nexus - a nexus that emerges as a contested space, where people act and are acted upon, where identities are reified and transformed, and where institutions and social structures are both strengthened and challenged. The insights from migrant descendant experiences, such as YDEOs, highlights the ways in which diasporic identities take shape and are imbued with meaning through social practice, and how these practices are connected to broader human psychosocial needs, aspirations, and behaviours.

The United Kingdom's postwar economic recovery and the usefulness of Marshall Plan aid depended heavily on a rapid increase in exports by the country's manufacturing industries. American aid administrators, however, shocked to discover the British industry's inability to respond to the country's urgent need, insisted on aggressive action to improve productivity. In partial response, a joint venture, called the Anglo-American Council on Productivity (AACP), arranged for sixty-six teams involving nearly one thousand people to visit U.S. factories and bring back productivity improvement ideas. Analyses of team recommendations, and a brief review of the country's industrial history, offer compelling insights into the problems of relative industrial decline. This dissertation attempts to assess the reasons for British industry's inability to respond to the country's economic emergency or to maintain its competitive position faced with the challenge of newer industrializing countries.

AbstractFrom late 2005 through to late 2010, Fokker Services BV (FSBV) failed to comply with the economic sanctions the United States (US) Government had established against Iran and Sudan. By scanning the case, violations by FSBV came to light in a structured way, laying bare how FSBV operated to evade export control, breaching sanctions regimes and export control laws. Next, analysis stipulated that the cause and conditions of the violation of the export control regulations were mainly rooted in the tone at the top, the role of (intermediary) management and the absence of a Compliance Program. Subsequently, a short-term and a long-term response were formulated addressing the tone at the top, the development of an Internal Compliance Program, and the application of soft controls to promote an ethical culture.

Drought occurs somewhere in the United States almost every year and results in serious economic, social, and environmental costs and losses. Drought is more commonly associated with the western United States because much of this region is typically arid to semiarid. For example, this region experienced widespread drought conditions from the late 1980s through the early 1990s. The widespread and severe drought that affected large portions of the nation in 1988 resulted in an estimated $39 billion in impacts in sectors ranging from agriculture and forestry to transportation, energy production, water supply, tourism, recreation, and the environment (Riebsame et al., 1991). In the case of agriculture, production losses of more than $15 billion occurred and especially devastated corn and spring wheat belts in addition to reducing exports to other nations. In 1995, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated annual losses attributable to drought at $6–8 billion (FEMA, 1995). Since 1995, drought has occurred in nearly all parts of the country, and many regions have been affected on several occasions and in consecutive years. Most of the eastern United States experienced an extremely severe drought in 1998– 99, and in parts of the southeast, drought occurred each year from 1999 through 2002, especially in Florida and Georgia. Figure 9.1 depicts nonirrigated corn yields for Nebraska for the period from 1950 to 2002. Nebraska is one of the principal agricultural states in the United States, and corn is one of its primary crops. The drought effects on yields are most apparent during the severe droughts of the mid-1950s, mid-1970s, 1980, 1983, 1988–89, and 2000. Extremely wet years, such as 1993 in the eastern part of the state, also depressed corn yields. Monitoring drought presents some unique challenges because of its distinctive characteristics (Wilhite, 2000). The purpose of this chapter is to document the current status of drought monitoring and assessment in the United States, particularly with regard to the agricultural sector.

Chapter 5 refocuses the narrative on the experiences of white-collar workers employed within New York’s culture industries between 1941 and 1947. As economic conditions improved rapidly with the mobilization for war, the chronic underemployment and precariousness of work during the Depression gave way to the tightest labor market of the twentieth century. Wartime conditions facilitated union organizing even as they restricted unionists’ range of permissible collective action, leading white-collar unionists to support the social consumerism of the Office of Price Administration. The resurgence of unionism occurred within the context of a seismic shift toward a more equal distribution of income and wealth in the United States, which only intensified the political polarization of white-collar workers. In addition, this chapter also highlights the continued vibrancy of Popular Front labor feminism during the 1940s and women’s profound influence on the surge in white-collar organizing.

Imagine, if you will, that, on the same day, all migrants and immigrants decide to return to their countries of origin. The Filipina nanny would pack her bags and leave the family in Singapore whose children she has been raising. The suburban couple in San Diego would be without their Mexican gardener who worked for less than five dollars an hour. Italian farmers would find the fruit rotting on their trees because their cheap migrant workers left the orchard. New York’s manufacturing sector would collapse because a large portion of the workforce is absent. Worse, Wall Street would be closed because cleaners, security guards, office staff, and taxi drivers are unavailable. Many sectors of the economy in industrialized countries would come to an immediate standstill. The rest of the economy would follow within days, if not hours. Although not your typical doomsday scenario, this hypothetical example illustrates that our economy depends on the labor of often “invisible” international migrants. Labor Movement pursues the idea that the international movement of people lies at the heart of regulating today’s economies, or more precisely, labor markets. “If you build it, they will come,” the saying goes. Industrialized countries have built powerful economies that depend on a disciplined labor force. They have become a magnet for international migrants willing to satisfy this demand for labor. However, the stream of migration to the industrialized world is relatively unaffected by cyclical fluctuations in national labor markets. In the United States, for example, immigration streams steadily persist, independent of the condition of the economy and whether labor is in general demand or not (Camarota 2003). Despite increasing evidence of the autonomy of immigration flows relative to market conditions, the view that economic processes produce international migration continues to dominate public and academic debate. Critics, however, have questioned whether migration is indeed as market-driven as the dominating narrative suggests. Michael Piore (1979: 8), for example, states, “Income is not the critical analytical variable” in explaining international migration patterns. A less common view turns the conventional relationship between economic processes and migration on its head.

This chapter examines barriers to economic opportunity and mobility in the United States and offers near- and long-term policies to reduce these barriers. These barriers include high levels of income inequality, unequal access to educational opportunities, residential segregation by income, inadequate investments in children and certain areas, and disparities between economic conditions in rural relative to metro areas. In the near-term, running tight labor markets, infrastructure investment, direct job creation, healthcare and other work supports, and apprenticeships could reduce these barriers. Longer term solutions invoke policy interventions targeting inequality, inadequate housing, income and wage stagnation, nutritional and health support, the criminal justice system, and educational access. It is also crucial to avoid policies that keep opportunity barriers in place, such as reducing the provision of public healthcare, regressive tax cuts, and budget cuts to programs that help low- and moderate-income families.

With the end of the war came a partial reversal of the devastating decline associated with the cocoa collapse, paralleled by a profound reconfiguration of class relations. The pre-war bipartisan political structure (Liberals and Conservatives) was replaced by a myriad of new political parties, expressing the divisions within the ruling elites, the rise of Left political parties as a result of growing proletarianization (Maiguashca 1992: 200–1) and, most importantly, the emergence and spectacular growth of populist movements. New forms of class struggle would emerge out of this maelstrom of change, each expressing itself through a mixture of new and old languages, symbols, and activities. It is not surprising, for example, to hear ‘San Lenín’ called upon for assistance alongside saints of the more traditional variety (Maiguashca and North 1991: 99–100). The ferment of this rich mix of class relations through which daily life was organized at the time the world was on fire wrought the conditions from which the post-war intensified water conquest would emerge. Indeed, the turbulent but lean years of the 1940s were followed by the banana bonanza decade of the 1950s. The United States’ fruit corporations, their plantations struck by Panama disease, moved their centre of operations from marginal Central American and Caribbean exporters to Ecuador. It was not only a cheap location, but the Panama disease had not yet moved that far south. In addition, President Galo Plaza Lasso used his excellent relationships with the US United Fruit Company to promote banana production in Ecuador (Nurse 1989). The spiralling demand for bananas from the US fruit companies converted the coastal area of the country (La Costa) into large banana planta tions with their associated socio-ecological relations (Armstrong and McGee 1985: 114; Larrea-Maldonado 1982: 28–34; see also Schodt 1987). While in 1948, banana export receipts amounted to only US$2.8 million, this figure reached US$21.4 million in 1952 and US$88.9 million in 1960, accounting for 62.2% of Ecuador’s total exports (Hurtado 1981: 190; Grijalva 1990; Cortez 1992). By the mid-1950s, the country had become the world’s leading banana exporter. This manufactured ‘banana bonanza’ was organized through a new political economic and ecological transformation.

The American dream is imperiled. Nearly half of Americans who report having once believed that Americans who work hard will get ahead are no longer convinced that is the case. Many doubt that their children’s generation will be better off financially than theirs. Even more alarming, new research suggests that such fears are well-founded. As Americans take stock of their chances to “make it” and find that their realities lag behind their aspirations, the dream withers. Some scholars have even linked recent declines in life expectancy of middle- aged Whites to the hollowing of the American dream, attributing rising mortality rates to “deaths of despair.” Dimming prospects for climbing the economic ladder may threaten the survival of the American experiment. If the verdict was already rendered and the American dream beyond any possible repair, this would be a very different book. Certainly, there are no guarantees that narratives, even broadly shared, endure forever. However, we believe that the American dream is not only salvageable but eminently worth saving. It still holds considerable sway over personal ambitions and collective aspirations in the United States and around the world. In 1931, Adams credited the dream with having “lured tens of millions of all nations to our shores”; today, immigrants and their descendants are the most optimistic about the central premise of the dream: that all who work hard have a fair chance to succeed. Admittedly, the idea that working hard should help people get ahead is not peculiarly “American.” What makes the American Dream uniquely ours is (a) the contention that institutions should aim to create conditions that roughly equalize opportunity and (b) the confidence born of generations’ experiences seeing the dream materialize, albeit unequally. We see the American dream as worth a fight because it defines not only how Americans see themselves and their possible tomorrows but also how they see their nation and the opportunities they believe that nation should extend.

This chapter examines the complex dynamics underlying Indian immigrants' decision to continue to stay in the United States or to counter migrate back to India. In a reversal of fortunes, the specific set of conditions that once triggered a massive inflow of economic migrants from India to the US has been causing a counter migration to India. Based on a review of literature and an exploratory study involving focus groups, the authors identify some of the major migration-/counter migration-related factors. Then, employing a survey, the relative importance of each of these factors is gauged for migrant individuals associated with different professions.

This chapter presents an overview of the flow of Mexican immigration to the United States between the years of 1880 and 1934. It notes that two main factors were responsible for the influx of Mexican immigrants to the United States over this period of time, these being: 1) the expansion of the U.S. economy and integration of the southwestern states into the union, and 2) the difficult social and economic conditions that Mexico faced as a result of the expropriation of village communal lands and a decrease in wages on rural estates. This chapter also outlines the timeline of Mexican immigration throughout this period, from the late 19^th to the middle of the 20^th century, and analyses how momentous events, such as World War I and the Great Depression, spurred or deterred Mexican migration to the U.S., as well as the Mexican government’s various attempts to both encourage and curb repatriation.

Power generation is well recognized as a major prerequisite for a country’s economic development. Nuclear power has become an increasingly attractive alternative in the power market worldwide due to several factors: growing demand for electric power, increasing global competition for fossil fuels, concern over greenhouse gas emission impacts on global warming, and the desire for energy independence. Protecting people and the environment is of concern to nuclear power generators. Thus, sound engineering design that provides adequate protection against natural and man-made hazards is of utmost importance. Meteorological parameters related to structure design and system operation are the extreme and mean values for wind speed, temperature, humidity, and precipitation, as well as the seasonal and annual frequencies of severe weather conditions such as tornadoes and hurricanes, ice and snow accumulation, hail and lightning. Inherent in ascertaining values for these parameters is the need for reasonable assurance that the chosen values and frequencies will not be exceeded during the expected life of the plant. All regional meteorological and air quality conditions are classified as climate site characteristics for consideration in evaluating the design and operation of a nuclear power plant [1]. This paper discusses the regulatory requirements, methodology and sources of data for development of the design- and operating-basis regional meteorological conditions used in preparing a Combined License Permit Application (COLA) in the United States. Additionally, the differences in methodology for determination of these meteorological conditions by reactor type (i.e., Advanced Passive 1000–AP1000, Advanced Boiling Water Reactor–ABWR, Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor–ESBWR, U.S. Evolutionary Power Reactor–U.S. EPR, and Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor–APWR) are explored and summarized.

The economic assessment of the three-mowing technology for harvesting grass raw materials for haylage was carried out on the basis of new methodological approaches. The total costs (50.5–53.9 thousand rubles/ha) for the creation and use of promising different-ripening grass stands paid off in 1.6 years. In the next 3–27 years of grass life, due to the productive longevity of agrocenoses, 19.1–25.0 thousand rubles/ha of conditional net income were received. The cost of 1 feed unit was 5.2–5.8 rubles with a production margin of 69–87%.

The photovoltaic (PV) industry has seen remarkable progress in recent years, especially considering the advancement in materials and cell architecture. The potential of these technologies is investigated in a high insolation region of Southwestern United States, namely Las Vegas, where there is an abundance of surrounding barren land available for large scale installations. An experimental comparison of different PV technologies (HIT-Si, poly-c-Si, a-Si, and triple junction a-Si) under identical climatic conditions is the basis of this study. All tested modules have identical operating conditions, i.e. fixed installation plane, geographic location, and climatic conditions. The experiment verifies thin-film’s temperature independency, HIT-Si’s superior performance, and summarizes winter energy production of popular technologies in our climate. Lastly, an economic analysis is performed to compare the different technologies for prospective utility scale PV installations in southern Nevada, or similar climatic regions.

Florida produces more citrus than all other states in the United States. In 1999, the total bearing area was estimated at 315,900 ha, and 245,000 ha were oranges (Anon, 2000). Recently, oranges averaged 77% of the total production and about 95% were processed. Orange production is projected to increase unless US weather, disease, labor, or economic forces act to depress production (Anon, 1993). Worldwide production and price competition in processed oranges are projected to decrease US grower returns, as free-trade conditions progress. Paper published with permission.

The abundance of consistent high strength winds off the world’s coastlines and the close proximity to dense population centers has led to development of innovative marine structures to support wind turbines to capture this energy resource. Off the US coast, 60% of the offshore wind lies in deep water (greater than 60m) where the development of Floating Offshore Wind Turbine (FOWT) hull technology will likely be required in lieu of fixed bottom technology such as jacket structures. The United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the offshore wind community commonly refer to 60m as the transition point between fixed bottom structures and floating structures due to economic reasons. Floating wind turbines deployed in the harsh offshore marine environment require the use of materials that are cost-effective, corrosion resistant, require little maintenance and are highly durable. This has led the University of Maine to develop a concrete hull technology called VolturnUS for full-scale 6MW FOWTs. In this work, experimental testing was conducted to verify the performance of the concrete under operational, serviceability, and extreme loading conditions as required by the American Bureau of Shipping Guide for Building and Classing Floating Offshore Wind Turbines. The testing included structural testing sub-components of the hull and served as experimental verification of American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) concrete design methodology which is currently approved and being used to design the first commercial scale FOWTs in the United States. Two 6MW wind turbines supported on VolturnUS concrete hulls will be used for the New England Aqua Ventus I project. The project is planned to be deployed and connected to the grid by 2019 in the Northeast U.S. and is funded by the US Department of Energy.

The Kyrgyz Republic economy openness is studied within the framework of the Eurasia. Insufficient level of the financial and economic standing of Kyrgyzstan is clarified. Reasons for Governmental regulating use in the area of monetary, tax and budget policy in USA have been set up. Conditions of the development of industrial countries economy are under consideration. The necessity of financialisation of all capital of country is defined. Kyrgyzstan public budget’s permanent deficiency formation reasons are studied. A necessity of integration economic relations development within the framework of Eurasia is offered. A necessity of sustainable economic relations establishment as well as finding solution for external debt between Kyrgyzstan and Russia have been justified. It is recommended to strengthen effective fight against a scale corruption, «shadow» economy and criminalization of economy and finances. The increase of efficiency and responsibility of top managers of the public administration level have been offered. The necessity of the independent mastering of own gold-mining fields is justified. The need to attract the foreign direct investments to the area of mining and processing industry have been offered. Within the framework of acceleration of economic integration. Needs for the development of exploring and processing of hydrocarbons as well as building of large economic entities especially the hydroelectric power stations, namely Kambar-Ata-1 Hydro-Power Plants have been suggested. By this it is also suggested to Russia to develop this as strategic partner of Kyrgyzstan. Creation of integral customs system and energy cooperation suggested. It should be supported by establishment of unique equivalent among Eurasia states. By this it is to be possible to find acceptable solutions in finance and economy and to form a united economic cooperation considering a sovereignty of each state. It is necessary to develop the identical financial reporting of point-of-sale and payment balances, balance of international investments, compliable national republics and on the whole on Eurasia. To walk away from the calculation and actual use of dollar of the USA in finance and economic operations. Based on econometric prognosis of gross internal product and the public budget of Kyrgyzstan is made calculating on the per to 2025 year.

Recent experience has shown that many utilities have installed new feedwater flow measurement instrumentation, which is designed with new, proven technology that more accurately monitors feedwater flow and therefore, allows for improved thermal power level calculations. As a result of this new approach, many utilities have been able to extend limited power upgrades to the tune of 1.4%, and yet with no noticeable additional environmental impact. These electric power increases are generally attributable to the large design margins included in the original nuclear power plant designs and in addition, to the technological advances that have been made to the nuclear industry. Power increases are now carried out by several nuclear utilities in the United States with the NRC’s concurrence. Current nuclear power plants are providing cheap, reliable and affordable electricity to help meet current energy growing demands. As a result of this, power uprate increases are encouraged. Current economic conditions strongly favor power uprates and plant life extensions. In the early 1990s, a limited power uprate program was initiated, but due to complex design reviews, this was not steadfastedly recommended during this time period. Nuclear Steam Supply Systems (NSSS) vendors performed a key role in this nuclear power uprate program. This paper discusses structural and piping qualification review required to achieve these power uprate programs, currently being performed by nuclear utilities in the United States.

The aim of the paper is to present the Lithuanian legal framework regarding the nuclear safety in Decommissioning and Waste Management, and the progress in the Decommissioning Programme of the unit 1 of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP). INPP is the only nuclear plant in Lithuania. It comprises two RBMK-1500 reactors. After Lithuania has restored its independence, responsibility for Ignalina NPP was transferred to the Republic of Lithuania. To ensure the control of the Nuclear Safety in Lithuania, The State Nuclear Power Safety Inspectorate (VATESI) was created on 18 October 1991, by a resolution of the Lithuanian Government. Significant work has been performed over the last decade, aiming at upgrading the safety level of the Ignalina NPP with reference to the International standards. On 5 October 1999 the Seimas (Parliament) adopted the National Energy Strategy: • It has been decided that unit 1 of Ignalina NPP will be closed down before 2005, • The conditions and precise final date of the decommissioning of Unit 2 will be stated in the updated National Energy strategy in 2004. On 20–21 June 2000, the International Donors’ Conference for the Decommissioning of Ignalina NPP took place in Vilnius. More than 200 Millions Euro were pledged of which 165 M€ funded directly from the European Union’s budget, as financial support to the Decommissioning projects. The Decommissioning Program encompasses legal, organizational, financial and technical means including the social and economical impacts in the region of Ignalina. The Program is financed from International Support Fund, State budget, National Decommissioning Fund of Ignalina NPP and other funds. Decommissioning of Ignalina NPP is subject to VATESI license according to the Law on Nuclear Energy. The Government established the licensing procedure in the so-called “Procedure for licensing of Nuclear Activities”; and the document “General Requirements for Decommissioning of the Ignalina NPP” has been issued by VATESI. A very important issue is the technical support to VATESI and the Lithuanian TSO’s (Technical Support Organisations) in their activities within the licensing process related to the Decommissioning of INPP. This includes regulatory assistance in the preparation of decommissioning and radioactive waste management regulatory documents, and technical assistance in the review of the safety case presented by the operator. The Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN, France) and the French Nuclear Safety Authority (DSIN) as well as Swedish International Project (SIP) are providing their support to VATESI in these areas.

The concept of safety margins has served as a fundamental principle in the design and operation of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Defined as the minimum distance between a system’s “loading” and its “capacity”, plant design and operation is predicated on ensuring an adequate safety margin for safety-significant parameters (e.g., fuel cladding temperature, containment pressure, etc.) is provided over the spectrum of anticipated plant operating, transient and accident conditions. To meet the anticipated challenges associated with extending the operational lifetimes of the current fleet of operating NPPs, the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have developed a collaboration to conduct coordinated research to identify and address the technological challenges and opportunities that likely would affect the safe and economic operation of the existing NPP fleet over the postulated long-term time horizons. In this paper we describe a framework for developing and implementing a Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to evaluate and manage changes in plant safety margins over long time horizons.

Puerto Rico, while a U.S. territory, lacked the education, health, and sanitation infrastructure found in the continental United States. Neutra’s task was to design facilities to improve the infrastructure. While the aesthetic of the buildings is considered Modernist architecture, Neutra was very sensitive to the structures of local communities. His school designs were didactic in the way people engaged the architecture by learning about fluid mechanics and sanitation through passive designs and planning. Gardens and agricultural practices were introduced to improve food and nutrition. Education and food reforms required local knowledge even though there is a broader scientific knowledge that understands how these conditions can thrive in a particular locality. Architecturally, Neutra adjusted the Modernist style to perform in tropical Puerto Rico. Having contributed to the development of Puerto Rico and anticipating the economic boom in the U.S., Neutra’s proposal for the American community is one that was developed from the global south meant to conserve local values, and yet it was conceived as a model plan that was independent of a particular location.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.